Perspective on recent national polls

BJ, CA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:19:20 GMT

A lead for the Leader...

Obama'08

Perspective on recent national polls

Marihelen, TX — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:21:38 GMT

Thanks for this info Chuck. I would be curious what you think is the "real" result out there considering the factors you mentioned -- does Obama have a real lead in your opinion and if so, how much do you think it is?

Perspective on recent national polls

Pat Huntington NY — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:23:28 GMT

This is the year of the Democrat!

Perspective on recent national polls

Democrat — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:25:39 GMT

Thank you for the clarification. There was quite the uproar about the focus group.

Are we to see more focus on ideology? It will be fun to see more and more conservatives going for Senator Obama as the campaign rolls on.

Perspective on recent national polls

adam/Brooklyn New York City — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:26:06 GMT

I disagree earlier with you assessment that McCain in Mexico and Columbia makes him look presidential. I think it makes him look like he cares about the economy there and will leave himself wide open for democrats to attack him on jobs and the economy.

Perspective on recent national polls

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:26:07 GMT

Chuck why don't you just admit it.
You're "in the tank" for Obama, and you're trying to help him anyway you can.
It seems as though "truth" is a word that's not included in your vocabulary.

Perspective on recent national polls

Nashville_fan — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:30:17 GMT

The only perspective really needed is for the media to report the actual news, and not work so hard to color the ACTUAL DOUBLE DIGIT LEAD Senator Obama has built in these polls with their own need to create a "horse race".

At least for THIS WEEK, Senator McCain is getting CREAMED! Please report that! Thank you!

You certainly didn't have any problem reporting (endlessly) on the "white working class trouble" story line for Senator Obama, now did you?

P.S. Is John McCain responsible to do anything to reach out to voters this election season, or is Senator Obama the only candidate expected to "close the sale" with voters not in their base? No matter how well Senator Obama does, the focus is always on who didn't vote for him - not so with McCain - why the difference?

Perspective on recent national polls

BJ, CA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:30:57 GMT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSaH2uyWz_I&eurl=http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/06/11/mccain-calls-bringing-troops-home-not-too-important/#comment-718424

Believe it .. this guy likes blood, your blood,
your children's blood.....our nation's blood..

Perspective on recent national polls

The - Democrat Soldier — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:31:06 GMT

So - on the ballots come November will it say Democrats - Republicans or Liberal - Conversative.

Come on....how many other catogories are they going to use to justify voting for someone.

What if I am Liberal/conversative with a side of independenceand a bit of green....then what?

Thanks but we can figure this out for ourselves.

Thank you and GOD BLESS AMERICA

Perspective on recent national polls

Brendan D, Niles, IL — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:32:30 GMT

Chuck, it's a fair point, but don't you think a lot of people are starting to defect from the Democrats to an unaffiliated status, too? I mean, it's the Democratic Congress (including the already heavily Democratic House) that has caved on the issues they were elected to address.

I'm not advocating voting Republican by any means; I am, funny enough, a Democrat. But I know a lot of Dems who are just as angry at their party now as Republicans have been with the GOP for some time now.

Perspective on recent national polls

class Warrior, D.C. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:33:14 GMT

But it surely does say something about Bush's mismanagement of things and the damage it's done to the Repiglican "brand" that so many people refuse to call themselves GOPers anymore. It's like people traveling in other countries identifying themselves as Canadian, because they're too embarrassed by Bush and his idiot policies and the damage they've done to admit to the-rest-of-the-world-who-hates-us that they're American. To be ashamed you're an American or that you used to be a Repiglican is surely a

Perspective on recent national polls

jerry/corpus christi texas — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:33:28 GMT

Oh Merle be happy your girl went back to work yesterday. The people of New York just might get their money's worth now that she was whipped and has to bow before the man.

Polls is all that it is; polls. Some have Obama up by several points and some have them close to nothing. All depends on what happens in November. In case you forget, two races come to mind....

Dewey/Truman 48
Bush/Kerry 04

in those races, everybody thought Dewey and Kerry would rule the day, only to atch them get thrown under the bus by the voters.

Polls is just that....
Polls

Perspective on recent national polls

Rob, Denver — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:34:10 GMT

J. Merle Stanley, I beg to differ. From what I've seen, and I watch MSNBC fairly regularly, is that Chuck Todd is meticulous in his poll analyses, and the conclusions he reaches through his extrapolations always seem reasonable, and more often than not, prove themselves out over time.

Also, I fail to see how his post, merely a recommendation to those who read polls, helps Obama in any way, shape, or form.

From where I'm standing, his conjecture above is right on the mark.

Perspective on recent national polls

Doles, Miami, FL — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:34:26 GMT

Chuck "'in the tank'for Obama"? Ha, now that's something!

Perspective on recent national polls

seeeeee. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:34:57 GMT

Stanley...

the sooner you realize that the republican brand is damaged.. the better off you'll be. The independent pull McCain is getting will definitely show in the drop in the republican vote he'll receive. The same holds true for Obama... I live in Colorado and I am independent... didn't get to vote in the primaries, so he'll see a bounce in numbers because of closed primaries and the independents that weren't allowed to participate.

Perspective on recent national polls

Greg, New York, N.Y. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:35:16 GMT

Chuck Todd is a God. I have been thinking about that difficulty too, but you're the first journalist to mention it. You can also add in the growth in conservative "Democrats" and the decline in liberal "Republicans" to that problem.

Perspective on recent national polls

Joe B., Novato, CA. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:35:27 GMT

So if the truth supports Obama's lead in polls, then the reporters of said polls are "in the tank" for Obama? Right wing troll.

Perspective on recent national polls

Obama is drama — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:35:35 GMT

Perspective on recent national polls

Ron Indiana — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:36:21 GMT

Good insight Chuck. Will First Read pass on any polling done in the 18 "swing" states. Based on the last two elections there are plenty of Red States, but, based on the number of new people registered to vote, and the 50 state Dem strategy, can you comment on the states that are pink and likely to turn light blue? If the 15 percent Obama lead is true, then what states are reflecting this bounce?

Perspective on recent national polls

Steven G. Randolph, Tampa, FL — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:41:01 GMT

People SHOULD be embarrassed to identify themselves as GOP, considering the Bush and Cheney administration's incompetence that the GOP has burdened us with since 2000. Neither did the GOP Congress do us any favors during much of their time in control. McCain now embraces the policies of the past 7.5 years as the way to go forward, and he is wrong, wrong, wrong. We need change desperately.

Perspective on recent national polls

GA GUY — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:41:23 GMT

""Chuck why don't you just admit it.
You're "in the tank" for Obama, and you're trying to help him anyway you can.
It seems as though "truth" is a word that's not included in your vocabulary.J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 10:26 AM)""

Well now; why would you not post your specific example of what it is that makes you accuse Chuck of being "in the tank for Obama"??!!??

Most of us admitted Obamacrats tend to think of Chuck as being a little too tough on Obama; in that he often let's 'dis-connects' get through like not making the connection between independent campaign finance and the refusal to allow PAC and Lobbyist donations into his campaign and the DNC...

So again, what is your specific beef?

Not trying to defend Chuck here; just trying to understand if you really care about a specific issue; or if you just want to "vent"...??

Perspective on recent national polls

Amy B Portland, ME — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:42:01 GMT

I remember after Katrina, a morning show team was debating on the air whether to call the victims refugees or survivors, and the weatherman said something I will never forget, "why not just call them citizens?" I'd like us to get over this vicious partisan war and come together in a practical, constructive and inspiring spirit. That's why I'm voting for Obama.

Perspective on recent national polls

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:43:10 GMT

The other thing to keep in mind is polls this far out don't matter much.

I'm glad to see Obama doing well. There's two dynamics at play against one another. One is McCain is better known, so would tend to have the advantage in this early polling. The other is its a year in which the Democrats in all races are enjoying a tailwind.

Out of those two, we're seeing Obama holding an edge, and that's encouraging as seemingly he has a lot of room to grow - as people realize that maybe he isn't really a Manchurian Muslim or whatever.

But its early, early, early. A year ago no one was thinking gas prices would be a dominant issue. Who knows what could come up between now and November.

Perspective on recent national polls

Dirk, Brunswick, Georgia — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:43:13 GMT

MCCain is winning Independents anyway, no matter what Chuck Todd says.

Chuck, you'll interpret anything in Obama's favor. Chuck, remember the Saturday Night Live parodies! Obama needs to be scrutinized, not idolized! Obama is a rookie Senator!

McCain '08/12

Perspective on recent national polls

none — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:44:14 GMT

Thanks - Chuck. Great analysis. Gives a clearer understanding to the cross tabs. Tim would be proud.

Perspective on recent national polls

Diane from Illinois — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:45:29 GMT

It seems as though "truth" is a word that's not included in your vocabulary.
J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY
------------------------------------------------------
How's this for truth J. Merle Stanley? You're candidate is BEHIND in the polls because he's a 71 year old, creepy, war monger and a duplicate of what we've had the past 7 1/2 years and the American people are saying NOT THIS TIME! Sit back and watch the polls continue to give Obama a bigger lead as the months pass. Barack Obama is going to be the next POTUS! Don't you LOVE the truth?

Perspective on recent national polls

A Latte Lover, Seattle, WA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:46:59 GMT

It would seem that not many want to be associated with the Republican brand. I got this from Washington state Democrats:

On Monday on FOX News Dino Rossi was caught trying to trick Washington's voters. You may have heard that Rossi and 27 other Republican candidates in our state will not allow the word "Republican" to appear next to their name on the ballot.

Thanks to the new Top Two primary, candidates can choose what party label they want on the ballot in November. As we reported on June 11th, Dino Rossi will have "Prefers G.O.P. party" next to his name, which is clearly a scheme to avoid having the word "Republican" next to his name.

Or as one of their candidates admits in this newscast:

"There's 30 percent of the people in this state that would not vote for a Republican no matter what, and we want to get around that..."

Who is Rossi trying to fool? This is just the latest effort by Team Rossi to be less-than-straightforward with the public about his activities and his agenda.

Here's the good news: Republicans are running scared in Washington. Here's the bad news: They will stop at nothing to deceive Washington voters.

Democrats aren't afraid to wear the Democrat label. We are proud of our Party and proud of what we stand for.

Do the Repukes really think we as informed voters do not know that GOP and Republican are one in the same? Although in having said that, after reading the focus group blog, one really has to wonder.

Perspective on recent national polls

Carole, Ft. Lauderdale — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:48:30 GMT

The GOP is not behind McCain. They couldn't get behind anyone because Jeb Bush couldn't/wouldn't run because of his idiot brother. Obama will win and the Democrats will ultimately be blamed in 2012 for the mess BUSH and the GOP Congress (6 years worth) got the country in that can't be resolved in 4 years.

Perspective on recent national polls

Lexi, Mississippi — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:51:04 GMT

Well, I am liberal on some issues and conservative on other issues. I don't even know what to call myself! I certainly don't like to be characterized as a Dem or a Rep because people make assumptions about you that aren't true.

Perspective on recent national polls

Ira, Freehold, NJ — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:53:06 GMT

Per J. Merle Stnley's comment.

Why is it whenever an expert analtical explanation of voting patterns is put forth by anyone "truth" is always comprimised. You are not in the tank for anyone when you tell the truth. A lesson everyone should have learned from the Democratic primary.

Chuck Todd is the BEST and most objective political analyst working today. No more need be said.

Perspective on recent national polls

Get Real, Be Honest, Admit The Media SOFTBALLS Obama! — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:53:56 GMT

Any 'arsehole' who can't see the bias FIRST READ shows in favor of Obama is absolutely illiterate.

Perspective on recent national polls

Lexi, Mississippi — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:54:58 GMT

One more comment: Chuck Todd and his team are about the only ones I trust to give us the full story as they find it out, especially now that Tim Russert is gone. They had a great role model!

Perspective on recent national polls

John, MI — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:59:30 GMT

Common Sense -- If people choose to change from Rep to Ind then they are in fact Independent. And if they vote for McCain they count as an Independent therefore he gets an independent credit.

The same can be said for all the Clinton supporters who changed to Independent and are coming back around to Obama.

Again...lets try to report on real news and stop making stuff up to show you are "busy working"

Perspective on recent national polls

Pat huntington NY — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 14:59:43 GMT

Dewey/Truman 48
Bush/Kerry 04

in those races, everybody thought Dewey and Kerry would rule the day, only to atch them get thrown under the bus by the voters.

Polls is just that....
Polls
jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 10:33 AM)

-------------
We wish you would stop posting falsehoods on this website. If you took the time to check, Bush was beating Kerry in all polls from the end of the primaries, until the days before the November 2004 election, albeit, by a slim margin.

Stop Jerry's false posts please!

Oh, and we here in NY, are grateful Hillary is back to work for us, because she always had our back.

Perspective on recent national polls

MSierra, SF — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:01:05 GMT

'...A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll seems to back up the Newsweek poll. This new survey has Obama up 12 points over McCain (49%-37%). More: "On a four-man ballot that included independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by 48% to 33%.”

“Obama's lead -- bigger in this poll than in most other national surveys -- appears to stem largely from his positions on domestic issues. Both Democrats and independent voters said Obama would do a better job than McCain at handling the nation's economic problems,...'

Let's take this with a grain of salt....
Primary polls are meaningless before the Iowa caucus and General election polls before the National Conventions

But, Obama HAS to EMPHASISE the Domestic agenda !!

He HAS TO BE MORE SPECIFIC !!
Social Security, ending the disastrous Bush tax cuts,
Women's issues (choice, S-Chip), Health Insurance...

Be MORE SPECIFIC !!

It's good that his ad 'introduce' him to the nation
This will blunt Republican attempts to smear and demonize him....

But, we do need more specific policy proposals
Housing, food regulation, rebuilding the FDA...

Obama/Edwards '08
Why not the BEST we have ?

Obama/Biden '08
Another good ticket

Perspective on recent national polls

Marihelen, TX — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:05:40 GMT

Chuck and the First Read guys must love "being in the tank" for both Obama and McCain at the same time. From what I read on these boards, any interpretation they provide gets them grief for favoring one side or the other. I read this column above others b/c I think it is pretty balanced. Occasionally I disagree and think they are harder on my guy than he deserves, but I don't think they are in the tank for anyone.

Perspective on recent national polls

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:09:22 GMT

Carole - I think that might prove very insightful. I've been thinking for a while the worst thing you could do to someone is elect him president this time.

Perspective on recent national polls

linda.north2@gmail.com — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:10:01 GMT

J. Merle Stanley - Chuck Todd is as fair as it gets. Leave our Chuck alone. He's doing his job and we love it and him. Tim Russert hired him so you know he must be fair and accurate. Keep up the good work Chuck!

Perspective on recent national polls

Carol, Long Valley NJ — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:11:00 GMT

For tongue in cheek reasons to vote Republican, please take a moment and view this video. It the stakes weren't so high, this would be funny.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiQJ9Xp0xxU

Perspective on recent national polls

Protest Coordinator - upcoming Republican Convention in St. Paul. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:15:25 GMT

I think all of the remaining base of the Gone Overboard Party should just hold on to their dislikes for McCain and stand on principal with their confusion about Obama and "take a mental health day" on Nov. 20th. Best to stay home in bed and watch the whole thing unfold on MSNBC with a really strong “toddy” at your bedside. Obama will be our next President. That’s a good thing! But I know many out there who need to go ahead and start preparing yourselves mentally for the coming event.

Perspective on recent national polls

Class Warrior, D.C. — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:16:51 GMT

Obama Is Drama; evidently, you haven't been following the tempest-in-a-teapot your buddy Dobson has tried to arouse. He said basically what you said, to which Obama answered; There are some Christians who live according to the Book of Leviticus (which includes advice to kill witches), and some Christias who live by the Sermon On The Mount. I am a Christian, Obama declared, who lives by the Sermon On The Mount, which commands us to love God and love our neighbor. So, my friend...put down the Kool-aide, pick up your Bible and find out what kind of Christian Obama really is!

Perspective on recent national polls

Todd, NC — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:17:09 GMT

You know the funny thing about these polls is that when Obama is loosing in any measurement then the media immediatley says that he has a problem in that area..

However, I am curious as to why there is no real analysis of McCain and his many many issues..

Perspective on recent national polls

lizzy in seattle — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:17:48 GMT

In my State, one Republican candidate has asked that there not be an "R" next to his name . . . he says he prefers "GOP".

Grand Old Party sounds better than Republican.

Perspective on recent national polls

dlake — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:18:07 GMT

I'm an Obama supporter and even I don't take the polls all that serious.
I like when it shows Obama doing well in only that it seems to stop the pundits from their favorite subject: is obama having a problem with (insert group)?
Other then that, I will take the polls more serious after Labor day.

Perspective on recent national polls

Ron Jeffers, Arizona Independent — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:18:57 GMT

I am an Independent because I don't want to be associated with either party. Neither represents Middle America, although both claim to. Oh, and this Independent will be voting for Obama. He is the only candidate that still has a sound mind.

Perspective on recent national polls

anonimouse, USA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:33:15 GMT

Uh, before people completely assume that Chuck Todd is without a dog in this fight - remember that Chuck's wife worked on the campaign of someone on Obama's supposed short-list of Veep candidates.

Perspective on recent national polls

No Cain Do! — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:40:49 GMT

I voted for OBAMA here in NH and I think a lot of folks who chose McCain here in NH did so on the knowledge of who he was. McCain has morphed into a bush and I think some people will reject McCain come election time. When you look at the issues, Obama is right for the direction we are looking for. No more Bush, reject his clone McCain!

Perspective on recent national polls

working girl, Avalon, California — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:43:20 GMT

I know it is hard to be intelligent when your information comes from 3 word sound bites brought to you by the same people that sold (lied) you to the war.

Remember folks, color like beauty is only skin deep.

Perspective on recent national polls

Bev, LA, CA — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 15:44:48 GMT

My goodness! Just think of all of the younger folks who do not have land lines that are not polled. These polls may be was below the support Obama really has! Let's look for a landslide. Send McBush back to the Senate with his tail between his legs! Obama 08.

Perspective on recent national polls

MK,MO — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:03:46 GMT

Let's hear some more from Obama about why we aren't a Christian nation anymore. Let's hear some more about why the Ten Commandments and the Sermon on the Mount are dangerous. Let's hear him bash Jewish traditions some more. Perhaps, that will move folks from independent/undecided into the McCain camp.
Obama is drama (Sent Wednesday, June 25, 2008 10:35 AM)

mccain is not exactly a saint there chief, the republicans claim to the 'moral majority' doesn't fly anymore, look back over the past more repubs have been caught doing disgusting things than anyone, Jesus was not a republican he actually thought you should help the less fortunate once in a while

Perspective on recent national polls

Lorna, North Chicago, IL — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:15:14 GMT

Hey! Back off of Chuck. He's the man! Next to Tim (God rest his soul), Chuck is the best. He's fair, balanced, insightful and smart.

Perspective on recent national polls

Paul in Clearwater — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 16:17:27 GMT

Thinking back on McCain's terrorist attack theory just before the election . . . didn't Hitler do the same thing in Germany (bombing the Reichstag) just before WW2 to cause fear in the German people? Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat it.

Perspective on recent national polls

Rob Freehold NJ — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 21:42:16 GMT

It's funny to read the comments here from our liberal friends....if anyone should be ashamed it is a Democrat. The party is all about socialism. Losers from cradle to the grave.
I am proud to be a conservative! Less government, less tax, law and order. I work hard,leave me alone!

Most of the polls that have Obama with a double digit lead were taken at a Starbuck's. Sorry folks, there ain't enough white guilt to put the "community organizer" in the White House

Perspective on recent national polls

roger rainey — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 21:52:07 GMT

Good media. Tamp down that repub good news. Good media.

Perspective on recent national polls

Bart DePalma, Woodland Park, CO — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 22:16:04 GMT

I tend to agree with your take. Of course, the fact that folks are still voting for the same parties even though they self identify differently for pollsters pretty much puts the lie to the claims of voter realignment arising from poll respondent self identification.