Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

camie — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:22:54 GMT

well im sure by time the debates come that Obama will be back on top. I highly doubt that McCain will win the election, and for obvious reasons.
National polls dont matter its the state polls and in MI hes up by 7 points in a pew poll

New Obama Ad Featuring Voters
http://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/08/13/new-obama-ad-featuring-voters/
or
http://sensico2.blogspot.com/2008/07/my-blogs.html

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

the Pajama Pundit — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:24:35 GMT

Chris Cox of the NRA added, per the AP, "We are going to make sure that anybody that tells Montana gun owners that Barack Obama is not a threat to gun owners is exposed as someone who is not shooting straight."
*******************************************************

Ha ha! Mr. Cox made a funny!

http://thepajamapundit.com/

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Rick, NC — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:26:29 GMT

Here's how this works...a republican claims to want to open offshore drilling but that they don't approve of it happening off their shores...for instance

Both senators from NC have come out for offshore drilling but against offshore drilling in NC...true patriots and leaders they are...

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

S. Raue, Elm Grove, Iowa — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:28:44 GMT

Pelosi is a liar and should not be trusted on the oil drilling issue. We need a bill right now that opens up those areas to drilling, not the endless blabbering we're getting from this woman. Nancy is just doing the rope-a-dope (where she is the dope) to try and buy some time. She certainly represents the fakes and frauds of the country.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

John, MI — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:29:50 GMT

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Ron Indiana — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:33:01 GMT

Here we go again Pew "just three points" Well let's look at the whole picture:
Pew Obama by 3
Gallup Obama by 6
Rasmussen Obama by 2
CBS Obama by 6
Time Obama by 5
AP/ipsos Obama by 6

Average Obama by 4.5
The important issue is that several of these polls, (like gallup have been consistent--around 4.5 to 5)
It is time to look at individual states and ideed there are some battle grounds.
Other polling data which rolls in electoral votes:
Zogby: Obama 273 McCain 146 To close 119. These numbers have been steady.
RealClearPolitics: Obama 238 McCain 163 To close 137
fivethirtyeight: Obama 299 McCain 238
Gallup has been very consistent with daily variance as statistical noise.
I guess I would like First Read to include all the Polls to give the readers a clear picture of what is going on...And I would not have to do this additional research.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Amy B Portland, ME — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:34:48 GMT

Karl Rove attributes the decline in registered Republicans in Colorado to spending by millionaire Democrats - Like, voters aren't switching because the Republican Party has damaged America. No, voters haven't noticed the two wars, the misuse of tax dollars, the outting of a CIA agent, naaaaah.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Shake It Up — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:37:59 GMT

I really love the national poll choices you guys use. It's always the one that's closest that gets the attention. For the longest time Gallup Daily Tracking was the poll of polls. That is until this week when it started showing Obama opening up a 6 point lead.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:38:18 GMT

Polls mean nothing right now. When people start to pay attention, after the conventions, numbers will re-allign in accordance with where the American electorate is.

When voters learn that McCain is advocating war with Russia and thinks Social Security is a disgrace, they may start to wonder a little bit about him.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Kevin Zeese, Baltimore, MD — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:38:23 GMT

Rove sees four states that will determine the outcome: Virgina, Colorado, Michigan and Ohio. Right now, Obama is underperforming in Michigan and doing better than expected in the other three.

The big Obama advantage in Ohio is the disintegration of the Republican Party. The states voting appartus in 2004 was in the hands of the Republican Party and they had to play every angle to win (actually steal the election), especially minimizing voter registration and turn out in Cleveland. If any party can 'steal' the election in Ohio this year the Democrats are in a better positon to do so since they control the election appartus! And, there is going to be a big African American registration drive in Ohio that will surprise people and this year there will no shortage of voting machines -- no 8 hour waits to vote in Cleveland this time (with the Dems in control).

Michigan should be a strong Dem state but with the mess the Dem party is in both in Detroit and at the state level, with the state economy weak and the Dems in control of government -- the tables turn against the Democratic Party. They get blamed. Obama is going to have to create his own campaign in the state and not rely on the Dem Party, the mayor of Detroit or the governor. And, since the Dems did not have a primary in the state his Michigan organization is probably behind schedule. I'm surprised Obama is not putting more advertising resources into the state right now.

Virginia is going to be close. It is more and more a Democratic state as the recent gubernatorial and senate elections show but could very easily split its vote -- Senate race - Dem; Presidential - Rep. There will very likely be a Democratic landslide for Warner in the senate race and Obama is trying to ride his coat tails - making him the key note speaker at the convention. But, if I were Obama I'd be pleading with Sen. Webb to be my running mate.

Colorado, of the four, is most likely to go to Obama, Rove's analysis below is right on point for that state and he has probably picked the right four to focus on.

KZ

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Rodney Hopper, Waxahachie, TX — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:39:14 GMT

Why are we still talking about Karl Rove? I mean... this guy helped engineer the most collossal party collapse since the Whigs.

Does it seem like McCain's maybe over-confident in Florida? Somebody should remind him that Jeb and Katherine aren't there anymore. He might actually have to get MORE votes than his opponent.

Go ahead NRA, blow as many resources as you want on MT's 3 electoral.

Once McCain's anti-'Buy American' past spreads through MI, we'll see there's nothing doing for him there.

NV may yet prove the GOP's undoing. They shut down the convention because of the Ron Paul supporters. They also have a scandal plagued Republican government. I'm thinking those 5 go blue this fall.

NC.. sort of a long shot, but Obama has a message that is starting to gain traction in the South. How great would it be to see VA and NC go to Obama?
What a message that would send that this blue vs red stuff is baloney.

PA - Give it up McCain. They ain't buyin' it.

Why would McCain rely on the traditional Republican infrastructure when he's trying to prove that he's something different than that existing infrastructure?

http://www.rodneyhopper.com

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

gail wade — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:41:35 GMT

Why nemtion just one poll! Arne't there many polls out there that show Obama ahead. Careful your bias is showing

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Kim W, Virginia Beach, VA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:42:12 GMT

Gallup daily tracking poll has Obama ahead by 6 points. It's all where you get your information. I guess you could also go with Rasmussen which had McCain ahead by one point (oh how the Fox News folk were salivating over that one)..So this goes to show these polls can be anything at any time.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Diane from Illinois — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:45:12 GMT

Thanks Ron Indiana for doing an excellent job of actually reporting the polling truths since First Read can't seem to it for us! I'm so tired of First read constantly saying "by only" or "by just 3 points", etc. Even when Obama is ahead, they say, "but why can't he put this thing away?" PLEEZE. I have never been polled in my life. Where do they find these people? Ever wonder? Who controls the media? Who controls big business? Yep. Conservatives. Republicans. Now you understand why they report the way they do. If you say something often enough, people might actually start believing it......afterall, many are buying the McCain "hero" story, aren't they? Geesh!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

jimbo palm beach, fl — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:48:19 GMT

Obama spent a small fortune in Pennsylvania during their primary. He outspent hillary at least by a 3 to 1 margin and he LOST. He wont win that State or Ohio and its doubtful he can win Florida so he wont be stepping into the White House. He can stay in Chicago and maybe, for once, actually start doing some REAL work there to help the poor and bring down the skyrocketing murder rate and crime rate. If he hasn't done anything there what makes many of you think he will do much for America. Wake up !!!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Benny, SFBayArea, California — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:48:27 GMT

Again, national polls mean nothing....Gore actually got more votes in 2000 yet he lost the election. I would love to see a break down of state by state polls and an overlay of the electoral map of the country versus saying 3% more of the 2000 people asked prefer Obama.

The only reason Michigan is a battle ground state is because our current democratic leadership hasn't done anything for this state (maybe thats a sign for people)

John, MI (Sent Thursday, August 14, 2008 9:29 AM)

Here ya go John: There are a couple of sites that emphasize the electoral college tallies which I am surprised (NOT!!!) that MSNBC does not publish. For some reason, they and the rest of the MSM continue to push the notion that national polling matters.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

http://www.zogby.com/50state/

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Myview4U, Durham, NC — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:50:49 GMT

What is wrong with these news organizations? Obama's poll numbers bounce around by a few points all the time. However, he has consistently held the lead for months, and there have only been a handful of polls over the past few months, out of hundreds, that show McCain leading by even 1 point. These daily bounces do not mean his numbers are dropping in any real way. When he goes from a 3% lead to a 6% lead tomorrow, will anyone right that McCain is losing by more or that Obama's numbers are rising? Absolutely not. It is the trend of the polls that counts, not any given number on any given day, and the trend, whether you look at daily tracking polls or state by state electoral college polls, continue to be in Obama's favor.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Vickey, Lakewood, CO — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:52:10 GMT

What they don't say about Colorado is there are more Independent registering because people are sick of BOTH parties!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Jim, the Mississippi Delta — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:52:15 GMT

If Obama continues to let the McCain "hit team" attack him with negative ads and not fight back, he's going to lose this election. Unless the Obama campaign develops some spine and takes off the gloves, McCain will "Swiftboat" his way to the White House.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Greg — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:52:56 GMT

Why in the world the media never highlighted the fact that Obama is leading among white working classes and christians by double digits?

Because two months ago everything we've heard was Obama being unable to connect with white working classes or Christians.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Donna, Alpharetta, GA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:53:54 GMT

Actually his numbers will drop after debating, because he doesn't know what to say without a telepromter to read off of. He just stutters and stammers out his answers which come off sounding even more like he doesn't know what he's talking about. He only speaks well with a well prepared speech.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

carl, lansing, mi — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:54:30 GMT

Lotta GOP haters on this board.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Bob Winston, Midland, Texas — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:55:20 GMT

How about Congress scrapes their pork barrel medical and retirement plan and gets into Social Security like the rest of the country they represent. What makes them better? They are suppose to be public servants not elite royalty. If they had to run the program knowing it would affect them too it might get done right!!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

BR, former Fort Collins, CO — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:55:58 GMT

Colorado's problem is Californication. Unfortunately, states like Colorado and Wyoming are being infected by large numbers of people from the west coast and they are starting to take their toll on the local landscape as well as the political landscape.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

John Alexander,PA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:56:13 GMT

PA is in Obamas corner, even the fox news team puts the state as blue.
Karl says money made repubs switch to the other party, what does that say about these mugwumps!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

infogiant, austin, tx — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:56:28 GMT

Are you just going to report the polls when they look to have the race tightening? If so, then you lose all credibility on the subject. If you lose credibility on this subject, then why should anyone believe you on any other.

Quit going for shock value titles and try to stick to the freaking news.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Steve, Northern Virginia — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:57:30 GMT

I am surprised that MSNBC has picked a poll (Pew) to highlight which is so clearly out of date. Their polling was done in late July and early August. Clearly there are more recent polls (many in fact) like the Gallup Tracking poll which shows a trend to Obama who is now up 6. I find it interesting that MSNBC always referred to the Gallup Tracking poll when it showed bad news for Obama but not when he is trending up. I have seen you also do this with the state polls. Is this a pro- McCain slant to MSNBC?

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Kevin Perez, Hauppauge, NY — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:57:37 GMT

The three day rolling average Gallup Poll Daily Tracking has Obama increasing his lead, even while he's on vacation in a foreign land ( Cokie Roberts thinks Hawaii is foreign ). Where is the "Librul Meedya"(tm) headline saying that Obama is running away with the election?

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Tzalaran — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:58:25 GMT

I'm so sick of this offshore drilling schtick. it will not do anything to affect prices at the pump, it is just a red herring thrown out to placate the mindless masses that this administration has helped to create.

in order to solve our energy problems we need to get all the electric car, biodiesel, hydrogen, and all other alternative energy patents that big oil has bought and buried in order to make their record profits. before now, alternative energy was not affordable to the average consumer. with the costs of oil and gasoline now, the affordability of alternative energy has to be comparable.

With Katrina still fresh in people's minds, do we really need to be constructing multiple oil drilling rigs right in hurricane alley? its obvious that our construction standards aren't up to par with what Mother Nature can throw our way, so do we really want to go with a drill, drill, drill off the coast philosophy when the environmental consequences could devastate the entire ecosystem of the Atlantic and Gulf coast regions? Offshore drilling is just another quick fix concept thrown out by individuals who obviously can't see long term consequences and the possibility of disaster.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Dwayne , Jamaica NY — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:58:40 GMT

"Here we go again" to quote Ronald Reagan, when Barack Obama is ahead in the polls you never hear it, its always couched in the question, why isn't he further ahead? When he loses a few points, its reported as "Obama's dropping in the polls". It seems the poll "watchers" are becomming poll "stalkers", they should step away from the poll numbers and watch the Olympics.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

J. Jake, Boston, MA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:59:01 GMT

There's a war? What sacrifices are we supposed to make?

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Kim of Arizona — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:59:14 GMT

Is it just me or do the news organizations want this country to go down? Why are so many in the media (who obviously see McCain's lies and many mistakes) tout McCain like he knows something? McCain is an idiot and I know they see this? So the only other thing I can come up with is that they have some stake in making sure McCain is looked at in a positive light or they are simply racist! I am a 38 year old white suburban woman with a college education and it's BEYOND me why those of similiar age and education level would see McCain as a good choice. Perhaps its that under McCain's tax plan they would get the biggest chunk of tax relief. After all, you have to make under $200,000/yr to get a big tax credit from Obama. I don't know about you folks but my income level would fair better under Obama's plan. So, maybe that's why the media is so biased for McCain. They could CARE LESS about us average earning people in America. McCain is rich and just like Bush he's for the rich. Let's let Obama get rid of taxes for those making under $50,000 on Social Security. After all, don't our seniors deserve not to have to pay taxes? OBAMA IS GOOD FOR AMERICA! Can't you people supporting McCain see that?

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Class Warrior, D.C. — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:59:26 GMT

Let's not forget that Rove predicted an overwhelming Republican victory in 2006, too. 'Nuff said.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Disillusioned — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:59:43 GMT

Who cares? They're BOTH losers and, as usual, the choices provided to the American people are shameful
by either party.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

jimbo palm beach, fl — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:00:52 GMT

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

BJ, CA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:01:58 GMT

Karl Rove ...yesterdays answer to all the wrong reasons...

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:02:14 GMT

First Read: Could you explain why Pews downward trend is worth reporting but Gallup's upward trend isn't?
Obama McCain
8/14 48 42
8/13 47 42
8/12 47 42
8/11 46 43

It looks to me as if McCain has a ceiling and Obama has a floor.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Donnie, Ft. Lauderdale, FL — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:03:31 GMT

If this country votes another republican in office this time around, I will have no faith in the American people. They showed their ignorance by letting Karl Rove scare them into thinking that gay marrige would take over the world!! It just seems to me that republicans REALLY HAVE NO CLUE to what issues are at hand. They seem to me to be the party of INSECURITIES! They seem to base their votes on who scares them the most... I was very disappointed in the last election. I could see through the bush eyes to see the man was a piece of lying scum and he has PROVEN that time and time again. The republican party needs to weed itself out from the ultra neocon conservative (little hitlers). I am not a liberal or a conservative. I am a MODERATE. I vote for my COUNTRY and not my own ignorance like many many republicans do.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Irwin Ozer — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:03:36 GMT

Every time Obama's lead in the polls gets down to three points I hear commentators and reporters say that Obama and McCain are in a statistical dead heat. This may or may not be true. If the margin of error in the poll is plus or minus three then a lead of three points could mean that they are even but it could also mean that Obama can be six points ahead. Plus or minus three means that the lead can be off three points in either direction. Why do we only hear about the three points going in one direction?

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Ken Morris, Harrisburg PA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:04:35 GMT

I don't trust these national polls. I think Obama's ahead now and I think it's only gonna get better after the convention. Also, after Obama debates McSame, he's gonna surge in the polls!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Joe Don, Topeka, KS — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:05:02 GMT

Why would any responsible reporter tell us what Karl Rove says he thinks about elections? The 2006 interims destroyed any semblance of his expertise, and his stint as Bush's Chief Liar destroyed any shred of credibility.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

pollster — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:05:16 GMT

Please check out this site for poll results.
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Kim of Arizona — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:06:25 GMT

Diane from Illinois - You are so right! I've NEVER been polled and neither have many of the people I know. So who are they calling, the elderly? Oh, and I (and many others I know) don't buy the HERO story for McCain either! McCain is NOT a hero people!!

On another note - Hey, Jimbo....get a clue. What matters in elections? Yes, electoral college and who is ahead by a large margin? Look at those "swing state" polls...McCain is not doing very well. McCain is a joke! Jimbo there are lots of comments I can make that relate to the name Jimbo and McCain but I won't. My advice to anyone voting......understand the facts before you vote....do America at least that favor!

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Sammie K., NH — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:06:44 GMT

"Polls mean nothing right now. "

When a liberal/Democrat says this, it means the conservative/Republican has gained significant ground.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Eileen, Portland, Maine — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:07:34 GMT

I'm surprised that Obama has been able to hold any lead at all. First he is up against a ruthless opponent; McCain has hired the most dishonest people that money could buy for his campaign. Second, the corporate media reports everthing from the lens of the McCain campaign. So no matter what Obama does it is always reported as a negative, giving the public a constant barage of a very negative perspective on Obama.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

GAB, AUstin, TX — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:08:44 GMT

S. Raue, Elm Grove, Iowa said "We need a bill right now that opens up those areas to drilling,."

Gee..guess you missed the interview with the CEO of EXXON in which he said he agreed with T. Boone Pickens, when he said that we cannot drill our way out of this.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Paul K — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:08:48 GMT

Thanks Ron of Indiana. Sometimes reporting seems so specious that one would almost believe its deliberate and manipulative. Like some weedling, nefarious soul whispering in the ear of the pilot of a great ship, hoping, if nothing else, that the pressure on his shoulder will cause a course chage.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Greg, Asheville, NC — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:09:13 GMT

The aggregate poll numbers have been pretty consistent since the primaries ended, so why keep going on about the closest ones? Nothing has actually changed.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

lisa in b-more — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:11:05 GMT

We use 20 million gallons a day of oil. We drill offshore anywhere we get 8 million tops, that is drilling at max capacity. This 8 million gallons last 8-10 years tops then the supply is gone forever.
So what is the point? Let's move forward not backward. Jimmy Carter for all the heat he took was right about energy. Wind, solar, nuclear (but not in my neighborhood), that is what we need to move to.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Super Roe, Richmond VA — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:11:53 GMT

Well well well seems to me that the GOP is at it again. Be careful they might steal your cookies. Anything to win. Thats what they'll do. How about this, the U.S. is in the worst economy since the great deppression, and every time we have had the worst economy what party was sitting in the white house? Someone please answer that question. So please America don't fall for this fake mess again. We don't need another four years of Bush to burn a hole in our pockets.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

nicolas Ismael, clifton nj — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:12:22 GMT

If although all those McCain's heavy punches, Obama is still ahead, that means that McCain can't beat Obama.
Polls are not 100% true, however, they can give you an idea of how things will be going on in November between Obama and McCain.
So, if from March to actually, all realized surveys always give Obama favorit with 6, 5,4, 7,3 points, if you combine them together, Obama's average over McCain is aproximately 10%.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

donnieboy9, Central Texas — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:14:38 GMT

Obama is dropping in the polls because he has no clue on what it is to be Commander and Chief. Talk is cheap and Obama is nothing but talk. He has no Foriegn experiecne, he has no Military experiecnce, He has no ecconomic experience. The only way he brings anything to the table is with his VP Pick and with out Hillary as his VP Obama has nothing to offer our country with change.

Battleground: Polls, Soc. Security, Rove

Him, Tulsa,Ok — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 02:04:30 GMT

As a member of the U S Army i was taught not to surrender, not to sit and wait to be released by my captors. Being held for 5 yrs does not make you a hero(McCain)and certainly does not qualify you to run a country.Just as offshore drilling does not solve the problem of high fuel prices. If social security is such a mess then maybe McCain should get off of it and live off of Cindy's money. Lets poll some of those ppl not terrified by the GOP fearmongers.