Tonight's forum

vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:04:04 GMT

"It would appear that Clinton is the one on the decline, and Obama has remained steady.

CitizenJ (Sent Wednesday, September 19, 2007 3:53 PM)"

"As the campaign takes on more attention nationally, Obama's numbers will move up, and if he wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he'll shoot through the roof nationally.
Ted, Sacramento CA (Sent Wednesday, September 19, 2007 5:54 PM)"

"I wish First Read, et al would give him more hype. America is starting to warm to Senator Obama.
Chuck, NY (Sent Wednesday, September 19, 2007 3:40 PM)"

Obama supporters, meet REALITY, reality, meet Obama supporters;

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The most recent Rasmussen numbers on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination provide compelling evidence that Senator Hillary Clinton is in an EXTREMELY STRONG position to win for reasons that go well beyond the horse race numbers.

Of course, the horse race numbers themselves remain very strong in and of themselves. She holds a 2-1 lead over Senator Barack Obama garnering 40% to Obama's 20%.

But it is in the details of the Rasmussen polling that we can see how STRONG her position really is.

Her favorable rating is 81% among Democrats and her negative rating is only 17%. With rating this high it is hard to see how she will be denied the nomination. Her favorability rating exceeds former Senator John Edwards by 11% and Senator Obama by 19%.

Beyond her favorable rating, Senator Clinton is also seen as the most liberal candidate in the field. In a race where close to half the primary electorate are ideological or operational liberals, this is extremely good news for the New York Senator.

She is also seen as the most electable candidate among Democrats. This rebuts one of the top reasons cited by her detractors for her presumed difficulty in winning the election.

The Real Clear Politics averages confirm the Rasmussen findings. Senator Clinton holds a 19% lead in the RCP national numbers and leads in each of the first major primary states by wide margins in New Hampshire (18%), South Carolina (12%) and Florida (22%) and a narrow margin in first in the nation Iowa (3%).

Rasmussen Reports polling also shows Clinton leading in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

In general election match-ups, Clinton leads Republican hopefuls in the GOP leaning states of Virginia and Arkansas.

Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor."

Most recent polls

Iowa-Clinton 28, Edwards 23, Obama 19 (LA Times Bloomberg 9/6-9/10)

NH-Clinton 40, Obama 17, Edwards 14 (Rasmussen, 9/16)

SC-Clinton 45, Obama 27, Edwards (Yikes!) 7 (LA Times Bloomberg 9/6-9/10)

You can always go back to claiming that the polls are meaningless...

Van

Tonight's forum

Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:08:31 GMT

Obama is making a huge mistake. He isn't he a position to be skipping opportunities to either take on Clinton or outshine her. Or both. He is trailing in the polls and his campaign has stalled.

Obama's absence has to please Edwards who becomes the number 2 guy there and will probably make the most of it and go after Clinton.

Edwards could be passing Obama in the polls in the next 30 days.

Other things to watch tonight:

Will Biden say something funny that makes everyone laugh?

Will Richardson prove once again that he is a gaffe machine?

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Paul Smith, New Haven CT — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:10:18 GMT

Yet another Dog and Pony show.

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H P Boston — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:57:35 GMT

Thank you and Welcome back Van. I missed you, hope your friend Honest Abe is over the shock of the dimembement he suffered here.{:)

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Liz, Nottingham, NH — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 13:59:23 GMT

I agree that Obama is making a mistake by skipping the event. It puts him in a group with Gravel and Kucinich today as non-participants in an important discussion.

As for Biden, he's bound to say something funny... he has an excellent sense of humor. Beyond that I expect him to shine at this forum with intelligent, well-considered remarks and analysis. He's on his way to a top-3 finish in Iowa.

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KI HOUSTON — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 14:02:58 GMT

VAN , FOLLOW THE MONEY BUDDY FOLLOW THE MONEY .

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KI HOUSTON — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 14:05:26 GMT

POLLS LIE MONEY DOES NOT .

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Ravine Force, Kissimmee, FL — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 14:24:13 GMT

Van does put together some compelling information. Job well done.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 14:43:05 GMT

It irks me that Obama would rather go to a rally with famous people than discuss the issues with concerned Iowa voters. Not to generalize or anything, but statistics show that older people vote. They are part of a generation that still believes it is their civic duty to participate in the electoral process. Obama isn't doing himself any favors by skipping out on this one. I hope he raises a lot of money in Atlanta.

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Honest Abe — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 14:45:14 GMT

AARP only represents its commercial interests. They're as bad as MoveOn.org when it comes to funneling money to special interests.

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Ashe, SF CA — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 15:28:38 GMT

BTW, these forums are getting to be too much. They don't seriuosly address issues that are important to the American people in an adequate amount of time. I think people want more than just snappy one-liners.

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Darrius, Arkansas — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 15:46:30 GMT

I don't necessarily think Obama is making a mistake by not attending the forum.

The only thing these forums did was to allow all of the candidates to attack him instead of attacking Clinton, and to allow the MSM to lie and say that Clinton outshone every one when she clearly didn't.

Remember when she said that you should lie when you are running for President, and she got booed by the crowd. All the pundits just conveniently overlooked that and said that she won.

All the other candidates have been treating Obama as the front-runner and attacking him while avoiding Clinton in every debate for the entire campaign. Obama wins all the points they attack him on but the media still criticizes him anyway.

Since Obama won't be in this debate, perhaps the other will attack Clinton for a change, and make her play defense.

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Jessica, Wisconsin — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 15:56:13 GMT

Carrie,

Obama is skipping all of these forums/debates that are not sanctioned by the DNC precisely because he wants more face time and meaningful dialouge with the voters. If you checked out barackobama.com you would see that he will be attending 4 different events in Iowa on Friday and Saturday where he can actually interact with the voters and address there issues.

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Mark Thieme — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 18:54:21 GMT

Welcome back Van!!!

Wow! Those numbers sure are cool, dude! Rasmussen, you say? Now there's political insight. Way cool!!!

And that trash heap idea! Makes me respect you and your values a whole bunch!!! Thanks a million!!!

Pardon me for noticing, but your pants seem to be soggy, dude.

Nothing personal, but I, with a few others, am out of here until you find someone to change your Depends. Dude.

Trash heap and all, you know?

Did I say job well done?

Well done for sure, scooter.

Ciao!

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Mark Thieme — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 19:39:10 GMT

Ashe:
It used to be fun because there were so many thoughtful posters here. I read it professionally as I am involved in a campaign and we peruse a lot of these political blogs to see what people are saying.
Actually I am the "decider" in our campaign and I decide which blogs to read and what to look for.

Speaking of trash heaps, this blog is presently serving probation due to the infiltration and dominance of some political poseurs who think a course in high school statistics is what this is about and the overall erosion of the general level of discussion.

I often read it and try to feed it a bit, but even I grow weary when I see some of the brightest bulbs checking out or rarely posting.

No, these are not serious indicators of political opinion, but you would be surprised how much campaigns read them for anecdotal information and a general pulse of public discourse.

Sadly, this one is on the trash heap with us for awhile. And this morning a colleague from another major campaign saw me reading this and laughed. That's all he said, he just laughed. Kind of embarrassing, like getting caught reading porn novels...

Aloha...

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vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 21:56:23 GMT

AARP only represents its commercial interests. They're as bad as MoveOn.org when it comes to funneling money to special interests.

Honest Abe (Sent Thursday, September 20, 2007 10:45 AM)

I guess that this is the same sub-human slime that stole my tag in another thread.

Hello Msnbc, either you nip this practice in the bud, or I guarantee you that it will escalate to a point that is disruptive to this entire blog.

Van

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Mark Thieme — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 22:37:57 GMT

It seems that Mr. vanreuter has suffered a circuit break.

Perhaps it would not be too rude (Carrie?) if we suggested he put that "fact" in his reality pack.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 20 Sep 2007 23:47:19 GMT

Mark - Sadly, it's not even as much fun as looking at porn...LOL.

Some of us have started using another site, which prohibits food fights and the like, as well as being involved in an email discussion list - also sans food fights. I (obviously) can't stay away from here, though. Ah well. Nobody is perfect, right?

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Fri, 21 Sep 2007 14:17:01 GMT

Mark - What's a reality pack? Is that like DVD collections for reality TV shows? If so, count me in! (Yes, I admit to being addicted to reality TV.)

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Support HR676 — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 13:14:58 GMT

OK, everybody, Hillary care, is simple, affordable
health care means, federally mandated healthcare, or
basically it will be a law for every american to buy
health care, which means,,,billions of dollars more
in the insurance companies pockets. Goto AHIP.ORG ,
American Health Insurance Plans, basically the Health
Care Industry Organization that all the health care
agency's belong too. AHIP wrote Clinton Care, or should
I say Hillary adopted the Insurance Industries
Universal Health Care plan, pass a law to mandate
every american has to buy health insurance. Watch out,
if you can't afford it, then you the US Government will gladly automatically take any of your tax refund and help use it too pay for your federally mandated health care. The sad thing is,,,,if you are poor, unemployed, homeless, can't afford to make any mandatory premium payments, guess what,
you still have no health care, and when she says that everybody should be able to have the same insurance that congree and senators have,,,,go look at the Federal Govt Insurance palns, where the govt pays for normally 75% of the premium, and candidates pay 25%, sure they can make it where anybody can buy it, but of course is the govt going to pay your 75%, I don't think so, the premiums will run 800 - 1200 a month for a family of 4. And don't forget, Hillary's campaign has received more money from the Health Care Industry than anybody else, and I guess you also believe Hillary when she says, It doesn't matter that I take their donations, I have fought for universal health care for a long time, well the NEW UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE FOR AMERICA was written by the insurance companies, so who do you think will come out ahead,,,americans or the insurance companys. Before you start bashing me, take a little time and do a little research on the net, you will see the only thing Hillary Care does, is make the insurance companies richer, lowers the standard of health care, creates a mandatory law that you have to buy health care insurance, just like paying taxes, which will increase of course, and you get no tax refund check anymore. If americans want real universal health care, go google HR676, Dennis Kucinich co sponsored the bill, but the congress and senate will never pass it of course. If you think socialized medicine is so bad, go ask the 48 million adults who don't have any healthcare and see if they would rather have no health care or socialized health care. Remember even with socialized health care, if a person wants to pay to have better care at private hospitals or doctors you can always do that.

God Bless America

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Michael, Baltimore, Maryland — Mon, 24 Sep 2007 01:44:41 GMT

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=7248856557

This group is dedicated to those teens whom wish to create a true change in this country. It has the support from Mike Gravel himself, and has been approved by his staff. We wish to make our presence known. Mike Gravel is amongst the most ignored candidates in the race. But the truth is, he is the only honest candidate.