First thoughts: Caucus Day

elmer, warner, nh — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:37:46 GMT

Please vote for Mitt Romney. He is the only one who has the power, intelligence, and management ability to take Christmas back from the Secularists. I hope that when he doubles the size of Gitmo that in addition to locking up all the Islamofascists and Illegal Immigrants, he leaves room for the secularists who are eating at the heart of this great Christian nation like a cancer from within.

Double Gitmo! No New Taxes! Jesus is our Savior! Go Mitt!!!!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:38:47 GMT

The media spin is hilarious. Clinton has to do well in Iowa or she is toast.

But all along the media spun it that Rudy didn't have to do well in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Now they spin that McCain double digits in Iowa is a really really good finish.

Fact is the campaign will go on. Obama and Clinton both have the cash and their are 50 states to weigh in. If Clinton heads into Feb. with 2 or 3 victories (even if 1 or 2 are Michigan and Florida) she is fine and will roll on Feb 5.

But don't count her out in Iowa.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Shadow, Hamden, CT — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:44:30 GMT

You guys are so way off on your expectations. Of the three top candidates, Obama is the one who needs to win Iowa the least. Despite his surge in later state polls, its the national inevitability narrative that made Dean's expectations so lofty, and Clinton is the candidate with that albatross in this race. If she can't win, inevitability shatters, and that is the main pillar holding up her national numbers.

Furthermore, are you going to tell me that a 35%Edwards / 30% Obama / 20% Clinton finish means anything but a likely Obama victory in New Hampshire? Please.

The real expectations: Obama's bar in Iowa is that he needs to finish within five points of Clinton. If he does, he's still likely to upset her in New Hampshire, then win South Carolina, and be the favorite to take the nomination.

Clinton's bar in Iowa is much the same in the sense she needs to finish within five points of Obama to have a fair chance at the nomination. The difference, though, is that unless she finishes more than five points ahead of Obama, she can't count on victory in New Hampshire, given that it's a tight race there (in a state that historically replies to an Iowa establishment pick with an underdog victory).

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Pat, Boston, MA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:48:19 GMT

Great campaign. Very interesting. For once I enjoyed watching it from afar. As usual, turn out will be critical. It always is.

I think the results are going to be oh so close; watching these candidates off and on over the weekend, it appears the crowds in Iowa were huge for Obama, Clinton & Edwards.

It is my hope that whoever comes in 3rd tonight just keeps on trucking. All candidates were fantastic the last few weeks and I would hate to think that one caucus could derail any of their chances elsewhere.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Grace — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:48:50 GMT

New Zogby tracking Poll Jan3 Obama 31 Edwards 27 Clinton 24

Hillary is down 6 from Monday Obama is up 6

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Ann, Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:49:24 GMT

Mitt Romney Flip Flopping on Abortion watch this!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFMdK0TWtks&feature=related

Do you really want a scum bag like this.
A photograph of GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney at a 1994 Planned Parenthood fund-raiser has surfaced, once again raising questions about the former Bay State’s governor’s abortion flip-flopping.

The picture, a copy of which was obtained by the Herald, shows Romney and his wife Ann at a house party fund-raiser in Scituate with Nicki Nichols Gamble, who was the president of the Planned Parenthood League of Massachusetts at the time. Romney has already downplayed ties to Planned Parenthood after revelations that Ann Romney donated $150 to the group.

Gamble said the pic was snapped at an event at GOP activist Eleanor Bleakie’s house and that she “clearly” remembered speaking with Romney at the event. At the time, Romney was running as a pro-choice Republican against U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.).

“My recollection is that we talked about his senate candidacy and the fact that he was supporting Roe v. Wade and a choice agenda at the time,” Gamble told the Herald. “It was a Planned Parenthood event. We were there to discuss our programs and our advocacy.”

The event was held the same day Ann Romney wrote a check to the pro-choice group. Romney has previously said he had “no recollection” of his wife writing the check to Planned Parenthood.

Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom called the flap “a dog bites man story.”

“Governor Romney used to have a different position on abortion,” Fehrnstrom said. “He is now firmly pro-life and has made it clear that as President he will advocate for a culture that welcomes life and protects the sanctity of life. This is the same path that Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush followed.”

Because of his abortion shift, Romney has been branded a flip-flopper by his GOP primary opponents, as well Democrats. Romney has stated he became pro-life in 2004 during the stem cell debate in Massachusetts.

Beyond attending the event, Romney filled out a 2002 questionnaire for the Planned Parenthood Advocacy Fund in which he said he supported Roe v. Wade, sex education in schools and increased access to emergency contraception.

“With Mitt Romney, this has been more than a flip-flop. This has been an extreme makeover,” said Planned Parenthood spokesman Angus McQuilken. “What voters need to know about Mitt Romney is this: where he stands on any issue is always a moving target.”

Romney reacts to photo:
+ Romney dismisses photo suggesting he attended Planned Parenthood event
dwedge@bostonherald.com

Mitt Romney, The Baby Killer! (Sent Monday, December 31, 2007 5:33 PM)

Why Mormons Are Not Christian.
and they are a Cult!

Please google all facts and see these are correct.
First: Mormons do not follow or believe in the historic Jesus Christ of the Bible, but rather in a difference Jesus. This is why most Biblical Christians emphatically insist that Mormons are not Christians. Let me explain.

The god of the Mormons is not the God of the Bible. To the Mormons, Jesus is the firstborn son of an exalted "man" who became the god of this world. The man-god of Mormonism was made the god of this world because of his good works on another planet somewhere out in the universe. He "earned" godhood, and was thus appointed by a counsel of gods in the heavens to his high position as the god of planet Earth. The Mormon god of this world was a man, like all men, who became a god. This is what the celestial marriage and the temple vows are all about. LDS men, by doing their temple work, are striving for exaltation by which they, too, shall one day become gods. Their wives will be the mother goddesses of "their" world and with their husband will produce the population of their world. This is the Mormon doctrine of "eternal progression."

Note the following quote from the Mormon Journal of Discourses, vol. 1, page 123, made by the LDS Apostle Orson Hyde:

"Remember that God, our heavenly Father, was perhaps once a child, a mortal like we ourselves, and rose step by step in the scale of progress, in the school of advancement; has moved forward and overcome, until He has arrived at the point were He is."

Lorenzo Snow, late President of the Mormon church, made this statement in the second verse of his famous poem entitled, "Man's Destiny":

"As Abra'm, Isaac, Jacob, too, babes, then men--to gods they grew. As man now is, our God once was; As now God is, so man may be,-- Which doth unfold man's destiny. . ."

The God of the Bible is not an exalted man. The God of the Bible is omnipresent, omnipotent, and omniscient. The Bible says He is the only God and there are no other Gods. He had no beginning or end and he is a spirit being and never was a man.

Note the clear teaching of the Bible as to who the real God is:

Numbers 23:19, "God is not a man, that he should lie; neither the son of man, that he should repent: hath he said, and shall he not do it? or hath he spoken, and shall he not make it good?"

Psalms 102:26-27, "They shall perish, but thou shalt endure: yea, all of them shall wax old like a garment; as a vesture shalt thou change them, and they shall be changed: But thou art the same, and thy years shall have no end."

Isaiah 43:10-11, "Ye are my witnesses, saith the LORD, and my servant whom I have chosen: that ye may know and believe me, and understand that I am he: before me there was no God formed, neither shall there be after me. I, even I, am the LORD; and beside me there is no saviour."

Isaiah 44:6, "Thus saith the LORD the King of Israel, and his redeemer the LORD of hosts; I am the first, and I am the last; and beside me there is no God."

Isaiah 44:8, "Fear ye not, neither be afraid: have not I told thee from that time, and have declared it? ye are even my witnesses. Is there a God beside me? yea, there is no God; I know not any."

Isaiah 45:21-22, "Tell ye, and bring them near; yea, let them take counsel together: who hath declared this from ancient time? who hath told it from that time? have not I the LORD? and there is no God else beside me; a just God and a Saviour; there is none beside me. Look unto me, and be ye saved, all the ends of the earth: for I am God, and there is none else."

Jeremiah 23:24, "Can any hide himself in secret places that I shall not see him? saith the LORD. Do not I fill heaven and earth? saith the LORD."

Malachi 3:6, "For I am the LORD, I change not; therefore ye sons of Jacob are not consumed."

John 1:16-18, "And of his fullness have all we received, and grace for grace. For the law was given by Moses, but grace and truth came by Jesus Christ. No man hath seen God at any time; the only begotten Son, which is in the bosom of the Father, he hath declared him."

John 4:24, "God is a Spirit: and they that worship him must worship him in spirit and in truth."

Romans 1:22, "Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools, And changed the glory of the incorruptible God into an image made like to corruptible man, and to birds, and fourfooted beasts, and creeping things."

Colossians 1:15, "Who is the image of the invisible God, the firstborn of every creature: For by him were all things created, that are in heaven, and that are in earth, visible and invisible, whether they be thrones, or dominions, or principalities, or powers: all things were created by him, and for him:"

1 Timothy 1:17, "Now unto the King eternal, immortal, invisible, the only wise God, be honour and glory for ever and ever. Amen."

1 Timothy 6:16, "Who only hath immortality, dwelling in the light which no man can approach unto; whom no man hath seen, nor can see: to whom be honour and power everlasting. Amen."

Clearly, Mormonism's god is not the God of Christianity who is the God revealed to us in the Bible. The Mormon god is a god formed from the imaginations of Joseph Smith, and in truth is a false, non-existent god or idol.

Second: The Jesus Christ of Mormonism is not the Jesus Christ of the Bible.

The Mormon Jesus is the son of this man-god. The Mormon Jesus is the brother of Lucifer, and according to LDS teaching, he married several of the Marys of the New Testament. He is not, to the LDS church, "God incarnate" as the Bible plainly states. Clearly, the Mormon god and Jesus are not the true.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

R. Jorgenson, Salt Lake City, Utah — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:50:13 GMT

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Joe — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:53:01 GMT

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama surged to a four-point lead over John Edwards in Iowa, with Hillary Clinton fading to third just hours before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Obama and Edwards gained ground overnight in the tracking poll, and Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner.

Obama was at 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers, Edwards at 27 percent and Clinton 24 percent. No other Democrat was in double digits.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:53:33 GMT

Great news for Obama !!
He's getting the support of 2nd tier candidates !
Why don;t they like Hillary ?
Maybe they know her ?

'...From HuffPost:

Beverly Davis
Obama On Track To Win Caucus 2nd Tier Support
Posted January 2, 2008 | 03:45 PM (EST)

Des Moines--Barack Obama has already begun shoring up
support among the lower-tier candidates who lack the
money or poll numbers to be serious contenders in the
early primary states, such as Iowa, and Offthebus
hears that "agreements" with these candidates may be
announced soon.

Dennis Kucinich started what may add up to the
critical mass Obama needs for a win or strong
second-place showing in the Iowa caucuses, when
Kucinich encouraged his supporters - few though there
are in this frozen state - to join the Obama forces on
caucus night, if Kucinich doesn't have enough voters
to be viable.

The Kucinich endorsement flooded the blogoshpere and
the main-street-media and handed Obama a mini-bounce
at a critical time in this campaign for the most
privileged voters in America - Iowa's caucus
attendees.

For days, the rumors have been flying between the
campaigns about which of the top three candidates for
the Democratic presidential nomination will benefit
from the second tier non-viable candidates - Joe Biden
and Bill Richardson - to be specific.

The Biden national and state campaign honchos met at 4
p.m. Monday in a Des Moines attorney's office to
discuss their strategy and decide if they would
encourage their non-viable voters to choose either
Obama, Edwards, or Hillary Clinton's caucus
contingents.

At a crowded and noisy Star Bar on Ingersoll Avenue,
where the Biden campaign staffers were sipping
champagne - or harder stuff - and waiting for their
candidate, his wife, and the Biden Family to arrive
for a New Year's Eve informal gathering, Offthebus
chatted with one of the Biden's national consultants
who wanted to remain anonymous:

"A decision will be made tomorrow about who we'll
encourage our supporters to stand behind if we aren't
viable in a precinct. Right now, I'd guess Obama gets
our support because we're more inline with his vision
of foreign policy than any of the other candidates,
and besides, we like him and how he's run his
campaign."

"Is Biden angling for a Secretary of State position in
an Obama Administration?"

The Biden consultant told Offthebus, "Well, Joe would
make a great Secretary of State, wouldn't he?"

Biden's son, Joseph R. Biden, III is the current
Attorney General for Delaware. Should Joe Biden resign
his seat and accept a major post in the next
Democratic Administration in Washington, his son is
positioned to replace him in the U.S. Senate.

After attending the press party at the Temple for the
Performing Arts, I headed over to Dos Rios, to pick up
any additional bar talk conversations and dangle the
Biden scoop.

Off-the-bus spoke with a national Obama staffer who
confirmed, "We've heard that Richardson may also be
telling his supporters to caucus for Barack if they
aren't viable. Nothing definitive but there's a trend
going on," she added with a smile. Ah, that's an
understatement.

All of this off-the-record conversation and backroom
pol talk could be nothing or something.

But the fact that the rumors are flying and top aides
are willing to discuss their thinking with Offthebus,
albeit without disclosing their names, is still enough
smoke to detect yet another spark that could ignite a
fire under the Obama campaign's fortunes in the Iowa
caucuses.

This trend, along with the latest polls showing Obama
ahead of Clinton or within the margin of error to win
this first all-important national test, bodes well for
Obama and puts additional pressure on the Clintonites
to outdistance Obama in the next 48 hours.

Time is running out for Clinton, but may be the best
of all possible worlds for Obama should his campaign
continue to build support with the lower tier
candidates open to a conversation about where their
voters should land on caucus night - if they aren't
viable.

None of the campaigns I spoke with - on or off the
record - are prone to hand their support over to John
Edwards, who is busy today flying around the state for
his final push to win - and therefore, survive until
New Hampshire, where his poll numbers continue to fall
far behind either Clinton or Obama.....'

Obama/Biden ?

Notice how Biden pointed out the ignorant comments about Pakistan made by Hillary ?
Does she REALLY know anything about foreign policy ?
Is she just reading notes ?

Thank you Dennis Kucinich !
Thank you, Joe Biden !

THANK YOU IOWA !!

OBAMA '08

First thoughts: Caucus Day

David Anders Pharr ,Tx. — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:54:35 GMT

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:55:10 GMT

"One campaign manager told First Read to look for Biden to beat Richardson on delegates, even though Richardson will probably have more supporters statewide."
**************************************************

I would not be at all surprised if Richardson wasn't the only candidate Biden bests in terms of delegates. I attended a Biden event here in Cedar Rapids last night, and I was blown away. It was a packed house, and the enthusiasm was through the roof. I did not get the feeling that these were a bunch of undecided voters; I got the feeling that these are people firmly in Joe Biden's corner. I left being firmly in his corner as well - and a precinct captain to boot!

He is head and shoulders above the other candidates in terms of foreign policy expertise, and in terms of relationships with world leaders. He knows how to fight to get things done - he fought to get the Violence Against Women Act passed, and he fought to get the Biden Crime Bill passed. As he said last night, it takes more than just change - it takes action. He has proven over his career that he will act.

His closing argument? Close your eyes and think about how you would feel about the candidate you are supporting being president tomorrow. He went through a list of the challenges facing this country, and asked whether we would trust our candidate of choice to be able to tackle those challenges tomorrow.

I don't have a lot of confidence that most of the candidates would be able to do that. I do have confidence that Joe Biden will.

Go Joe!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dean, Waterbury, CT — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:55:22 GMT

First thoughts: Caucus Day

michael — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:56:56 GMT

Everyone is saying Obama has republicans voting for him. They are doing that to fix the election because they know he is a automatic victory for any republican in 2008

Like I have been saying

1.)Hillary
2.)Edwards
3.) Biden

Republicans
1.)Romney
2.)Huckabee
3.)Mccain

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dot, Illinois — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:57:46 GMT

The media spin is hilarious. Clinton has to do well in Iowa or she is toast. Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:38 AM)

---------------------------------------------------

You do have a point. I heard two well known TV reporters say last night that if Senator Clinton wins in Iowa, it is all over--she's got things iced! Seems a bit different from your quote. Will be interesting to watch, won't it?

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:00:31 GMT

Shadow:

I think Obama needs to finish above Clinton to get a 'bounce' from this caucus

Guess who will be on the cover of Newsweek ?
The winners of Iowa

THAT would all but give Obama the victory in NH
It would also start to 'loosen up' the support of African Americans for Clinton
(or rather speed up the movement from Clinton to Obama)

I do think that Hillary could afford a loss in Iowa more easily than Obama (or Edwards)
She just won't be 'inevitable' or the 'front runner'
(a face in the crowd)

The big trick is, how big a victory for any of them ?
Hopefully, Kucinich's and Biden's support will give Obama a big victory !!
(10%)

First thoughts: Caucus Day

cms — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:04:48 GMT

Chuck - I agree Obama needs to win Iowa, but you've set the bar way too high. (Why did you do that?) He doesn't need to win by 7 pts to be the "winner." I'll happily take a 3 pt. win as he goes into NH.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Teddi — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:08:42 GMT

The Obama lovers (especially the young on this "children's crusade" they're engaged in) really seem to think that Obama is anti-establishment. When in reality he's about as establishment as you can get. George Will supports him in case you didn't know. They think it's "cool" to be for him--none can mention anything he's accomplished in his year and a half senate tenure. Unfortunately the odds were stacked in Iowa in his favor (same day registration, 17 year olds can vote, Independents also). If only Democrats were allowed to vote for the nominee of their party--which they have chosen to join--he'd be in third place. Iowa-you are a joke!!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Nashville_fan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:09:03 GMT

It is so nice to be filled with excitement about politics instead of dread - I thank Barack Obama for that! No matter what happens, the hope he has given this country cannot be put back in the bottle!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:16:46 GMT

elmer, warner, nh: '...I hope that when he doubles the size of Gitmo that in addition to locking up all the Islamofascists and Illegal Immigrants, he leaves room for the secularists who are eating at the heart of this great Christian nation like a cancer from within.

Double Gitmo! No New Taxes! Jesus is our Savior! Go Mitt!!!! .......'

Sorry, isn't Mitt the flio flopper who USED to support gay rights ?
Isn't Mitt the flip flopper who supported a woman's right to choose when that was politically expedient ?

Hold off on that 'Christian revolution', elmer

If I'm going to the tropics, make it Hawaii
Could you get Willard to move 'secular Gitmo' to Hawaii ?

Double Gitmo! No New Taxes! Jesus is our Savior! Go Mitt!!!!

Onward Mormon soldiers !!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

RH Oregon — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:18:23 GMT

HILLARY:

There was an old woman,
who lived with a Hsu.

He gave here so much dirty money,
she did not know what to do.

She gave back the dough,
with some lame excuse.

If it sounded familliar,
it's the same one Bill used.

Rameriz

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Morty McNutt — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:18:42 GMT

Interesting observation. One thing people need to realize is that this election is unlike no other. The reason is simple, there's a beast among the candidate. Specifically, a Hilldabeast. HRC will do whatever it takes to win this thing. She is not going away. I think you can read between the lines here when I say she will do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING to win. Whatever HRC's finish is, she will spin it to her favor. It doesn't help that the American Public in general is stupid. Get ready for President Hillary, people. The Hilldabeast isn't even awake yet. Scary, but true.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dick Flatts, Charlotte, NC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:26:04 GMT

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:26:16 GMT

A BIG ENDORSEMENT for Obama !!
From The State.com (SC):

'....Hodges backs Obama: ‘He’s the real deal’
By WAYNE WASHINGTON - wwashington@thestate.com

WHERE S.C. GOVERNORS STAND
Former S.C. Gov. Jim Hodges endorsed Barack Obama on Wednesday, giving a boost to the U.S. senator from Illinois in his pitched battle for the Democratic nomination against a pair of top rivals.

“He’s a once-in-a-lifetime political figure,” said Hodges, flanked by young Obama supporters at a news conference on the University of South Carolina campus. “He’s the real deal.”

Hodges will serve as a national co-chairman in the Obama campaign. His endorsement comes three weeks before South Carolina’s first-in-the-South primary, seen as a crucial test of political strength after voters in Iowa and New Hampshire go to the polls.

Obama is locked in a close struggle for the nomination with U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, who represented North Carolina in the Senate but was born in the Palmetto State.

In a campaign where candidates have touted the endorsements of deputy mayors of small towns, Hodges’ backing is significant — not because voters will automatically follow the former governor’s lead, but because it reinforces a narrative the Obama campaign has worked hard to craft: that of an inspirational leader whose freshness can break through the logjams of Washington.....'

Sorry for uncovering this one, First Read
Slowly, the tide is starting to turn....

Obama '08
Honesty, Integrity, REAL Reform

First thoughts: Caucus Day

John Alexander,Edinboro,PA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:27:20 GMT

Remember, Bill didn't win Iowa or New Hampshire. This is just the beginning for many not the end, of course we will see Fred drop out that is a given, I just don't know what will happen with the second tier dems, how long can they stay, depends on the money and the numbers tonight.
Hey Elmer, I ain't getting measured for an orange jumpsuit yet, still praying for your enlightenment though, feel any compassion yet?

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Ron, TX — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:29:18 GMT

Dickie Flatts, that sounds like some awful strong wishful thinking that a Michigan win for Clinton will give her any momentum at all in Feb 5.... Remember, she's the only candidate on the ballot.

Obama just has to get close to Clinton and he's going to be absolutely fine going into New Hampshire. She can't keep claiming the aura of inevitable queen of America if she only pulls 4-5% over him. If any of the top three are that close, the race is still on, Iowa will fade away, and New Hampshire will set the tone. If New Hampshire is close, it then goes to South Carolina.

If Obama runs away with ANY of those states, it will be absolutely monumentous. All he needs is a decisive 7-10% lead, and WHAM. America can believe again.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Jane, Cary, NC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:37:35 GMT

Wish I had a bumper sticker that read:

"I'm a MAMA for OBAMA!!"

Hope he does well tonight!!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Anonymous — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:38:19 GMT

The 2008 Presidential Election is coming and that means the marketing machines behind the candidates are in overdrive.&nbsp; Today, the Iowa Caucuses are being held.&nbsp; The caucuses are meant to drum up support for candidates as well as help

First thoughts: Caucus Day

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:38:26 GMT

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Anthony Palmer, Columbia, SC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:39:29 GMT

If Iowans are paying attention, they will find Biden to be the single best qualified candidate of any party running for president. And for Democrats who want to win, Biden would be the most difficult candidate for the Republicans to run against because they can't use the "cut and run/weak on national security" arguments against him. And he also has the added bonus of not having 48% of the country hate him from the get-go (unlike Clinton). And he can even turn "experience" into a weapon against Giuliani, Romney, or Huckabee. Edwards and Obama can't do that.

Having said that, for Biden to have a chance, he'll have to place third or a very close fourth in Iowa. One of the "Big Three" is going to disappoint. The question is, who will it be? Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all have something missing (true experience and statesmanship), which is why Biden, Richardson, or Dodd have an opening. Of these three so-called "second tier" candidates, Biden is the best positioned because of his strong debating skills and foreign policy acumen. Don't look for Biden to win Iowa, but do look for him to win the "better than expected" race.

As for the Republicans, Romney has the advantage of not being seen as a one-dimensional candidate like Huckabee. Everyone views Huckabee as the candidate for the evangelical wing of the party and nothing more. However, Romney is at least moderately acceptable to that wing, but also to the business wing of the party. So Romney has more going for him in that regard and has far better organization than Huckabee. I don't think Huckabee is as far ahead as the polls make him out to be. Chuck Todd's comparison of Huckabee to George Mason is spot on. One loss in Iowa and he's finished.

Here are my predictions:

Democrats: Obama 27%, Edwards 20%, Biden 18%, Clinton 17%, Richardson 10%

Republicans: Romney 32%, Huckabee 24%, McCain 17%, Paul 11%, Thompson 8%

You can read more of my predictions and analysis here:

(Democrats)
http://www.theseventen.com/2008/01/iowa-predictions-d.html

(Republicans)
http://www.theseventen.com/2008/01/iowa-predictions-r.html

First thoughts: Caucus Day

MSM is a joke, Machester,New Hampshire — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:42:46 GMT

Nice job leaving out the only candidate that matters, Ron Paul! To all true patriots in Iowa, go here:

http://people.ronpaul2008.com/iowa/2007/12/10/find-your-precinct/

to find your caucus location! Do us proud, Iowa, and vote for the most honest and reasonable man in politics, Ron Paul!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:42:59 GMT

elmer, warner, nh: '...take Christmas back from the Secularists. I hope that when he doubles the size of Gitmo that in addition to locking up all the Islamofascists and Illegal Immigrants, he leaves room for the secularists who are eating at the heart of this great Christian nation like a cancer from within.

Double Gitmo! No New Taxes! Jesus is our Savior! Go Mitt!!!!.......'

Is that Mitt's Final Solution ?
The future belongs to us ......

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:45:28 GMT

American Research Group - Clinton is surging in Iowa:

Dates are Dec. 31-Jan 2 (Dec. 26-28 in parentheses)

Clinton 34 (31)
Obama 25 (24)
Edwards 21 (24)

First thoughts: Caucus Day

C.B. — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:46:02 GMT

LET THE "CAUCUSING" BEGIN..hillaryclinton.com

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:46:47 GMT

Link to ARG:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Clinton with a lead outside the MOE according to ARG

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Little Joey, for N.J. — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:47:27 GMT

"BRING IT ON " !!! hillaryclinton.com

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Denise — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:47:36 GMT

LATEST ZOGBY POLL OUT THIS MORNING!!!

OBAMA - 31%

EDWARDS - 27%

CLINTON - 24%

LOOKS LIKE OBAMA IS GOING TO WIN IOWA!!!

First thoughts: Caucus Day

MarkD — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:48:34 GMT

When was the last time a poll was correct? They in fact had Gore as the winner in 2000. Likewise had Kerry the winner in 2004. The media treats polls like news, whereas they should be treated like weather reports.

PS Romney would be a disaster for the country. Ron Paul is the only candidate who can save the nation.

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Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:50:32 GMT

The LATEST Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Tracking Poll

'...Obama grabs Iowa lead from Edwards By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
Thu Jan 3, 7:05 AM ET

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama surged to a four-point lead over John Edwards in Iowa, with Hillary Clinton fading to third just hours before the first presidential nominating contest, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Obama and Edwards gained ground overnight in the tracking poll, and Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner.

Obama was at 31 percent among likely Democratic caucus-goers, Edwards at 27 percent and Clinton 24 percent. No other Democrat was in double digits.....'

'....Clinton fell four points to third place -- a finish that, if it held, would deal a dramatic setback to the one-time Democratic front-runner....'

We can only hope !!
Hillary Bo Peep
Has lost her sheep
And doesn't know where to find them ......

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Sarah, Vienna, VA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:53:05 GMT

Hey, First Read - Why aren't you showing the latest Zogby poll which came out this morning showing Hillary in third place in Iowa??

Results for Iowa - Obama = 31%

Edwards = 27%

Clinton = 24%

This is showing real movement away from Hillary and movement towards Obama!!

Please start a thread that shows this latest tracking poll. Thanks!

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David Anders Pharr ,Tx. — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:55:24 GMT

The liberal media will do anything to see Hillary wins and turn this great country into a socialist piece of crap which will flush down the toilet with our freedoms.

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Peter Warren II, NYC, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:56:54 GMT

Ron Paul will win Iowa while Mitt cries, Huck lies and lies, Rudy retreats, Tancredo quits,and Fred sleeps. Except for Dr. Paul, "[t]here's not a dime's worth of difference between" Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats willingly went along with the War in Iraq, suspension of Habeas, banning books like "America Deceived' from Amazon, warrant-less wiretapping and the PATRIOT ACT. They are both guilty of treason.
Time to take sides, fellow patriots, you're either for liberty and Support Dr. Ron Paul or you're against liberty and damn us all.
Final link (before Stark County DIstrict Library bends to pressure and drops the book):
http://www.iuniverse.com/bookstore/book_detail.asp?&isbn=0-595-38523-0

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FRED — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:57:30 GMT

IS IT TRUE RICHARDSON MAY DIRECT SUPPORTERS TO GO TO OBAMA?

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jef — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 15:58:30 GMT

Perhaps to late to make an inpact in Iowa, but Newsweek has a truly damaging story about Obamas Creative Clippings; "Selective, embellished and out-of-context quotes from newspapers pump up Obama's health plan."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/83148/page/1

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Marbw — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:01:50 GMT

Hey guys watch out for this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENCRu-2d35g

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Jo, CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:02:39 GMT

Woe is right unto any candidate finishing behind Paul tonight, because according to Chuck Todd's "Mendoza line" theory in which he said anyone finishing under Paul should consider dropping out immediately, that would eliminate Guiliani and Thompson tonight. That would be excellent if I never had to hear about those two again after tomorrow, cause you know that Dr. Paul's at the very least going to beat them. Chuck, I'm really starting to wonder if you write these stories as a way to:

a) challenge the candidates.
b) annoy the crap out of the bloggers.
c) really are that stupid.

Give us a hint, which is it?

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Rachel Farer — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:03:10 GMT

Ron Paul needs to place third in Iowa and win New Hampshire. Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire in 1996. With the money he's raised, Ron Paul (unlike Buchanan in 96 or Huckabee today) can capitilize on early successes, but he has to have early successes first.

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jerry/corpus christi texas — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:04:31 GMT

I think it will be Obama/Edwards/Clinton. Hillary and her campaign, while it looked good in person, was never that big a deal in the Midwest. She would do better in the liberal areas in the Northeast, because people up there love to have their taxes raised and have their extra money used for such lame things as welfare and other nonsense, and that plays well up there. The left coast will also love her, even if she did vote for the war in Iraq. Where her message will be muted is in the south and midwest. The "values" that she has and shown don't really play well to those folks.

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SoCal for Edwards — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:04:46 GMT

There is going to be a lot of upset Clinton and Obama supporters tonight when Edwards pull out victory.

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Lee in CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:05:15 GMT

I refuse to believe that this is so important. Iowa does not pick the next president.

Nonetheless, I sure hope a good christian who likes to throw people in prison without due process is the God-loving soul who will save us from vicious secularists whose propensity for decency and fair-play eat at our country like a cancer!

To the other exceptionally dim bulb: R-E-A-G-A-N - but I learned to spell in liberal California, not education-loving Texus.

Go, Magic underwear! Go Nun-killer Party!

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Lee in CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:09:22 GMT

David in Texus - I will fight to the death for your right to spew stupidity and hate - you have my word.

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SoCal for Edwards — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:11:16 GMT

Well said, Lee

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Dot, Illinois — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:12:37 GMT

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cms — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:14:23 GMT

Dean, Waterbury, CT - Dude, chill. She hasn't lost yet. And honestly, if you abandon the party if she does lose, that's just self-destructive. (Did you see the latest Guiliani ad???)

I support Obama, but if HRC takes it, I'll happily support and volunteer for her in the general.

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Kate, Boston — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:17:19 GMT

WHY isn't MSNBC showing this morning's latest Zogby Tracking Poll which shows Hillary fading?

OBAMA 31%

EDWARDS 27%

HILLARY 24%

Show us this poll, MSNBC!!!

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Nashville_fan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:18:17 GMT

jef:

I'm so tired of rehashing the exact same talk with the "health plan" debate. Making me buy something, and then telling me that you have provided me with something other than a bill is RIDICULOUS. The word "universal health care" should not be used for ANY of the plans that the leading Democratic candidates are presenting.

Senator Obama provides universal access - and considering the shady way in which the health insurance industry is currently run, that is as close as we need to get under the current system.

Mandating that I buy subpar insurance is not providing healthcare, it is providing political cover, and no amount of estimates, "expert analysis", or double talk is going to change the fact that forcing us to buy into the current system is not a solution, it is a joke.(And a windfall for insurance companies who still get to "decide" what they want to cover.)

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Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:19:54 GMT

Its nice to see the Zogby poll indicating overnight gains by Obama, but I still say no one knows what will happen tonight.

On the Republican side, sure, tracking polls are sort of believable at this point. On the Democratic side with the precinct-by-precinct 15 percent qualifier round, who knows? Looking at the numbers they're polling, seems pretty obvious even the front three won't make 15 percent in some precincts.

On another note, I read where candidates are making more gaffes as fatigue sets in. After tonight, there's another hectic 96 hours before New Hampshire. I doubt the survivors will get much sleep, so we ought to see more of that.

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Ed Prell — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:24:55 GMT

John Alexander,Edinboro,PA says " Remember, Bill didn't win Iowa or New Hampshire."

But Bill was not running as the incumbent. Hillary has run her campaign like she was the incumbent and the primaries were just a foregone conclusion for her. Incumbents though don't lose, and by all indications, lose badly. Hillary's inevitablily is now gone. People now will start to look for another candiate.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:25:00 GMT

Notice how Biden pointed out the ignorant comments about Pakistan made by Hillary ?
Does she REALLY know anything about foreign policy ?
Is she just reading notes ?
Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:53 AM)

If you actually knew anything about Biden, you would realize that a LOT of his message is centered on the fact that change takes more than words - it takes action. As he said last night, he thinks that someday in the not too distant future Obama will be a great choice for president - like in 8 years.

Don't count Biden out.

And P.S. Supporters are free to switch to whomever they want, regardless of what the various campaigns have requested.

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David Anders Pharr ,Tx. — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:25:18 GMT

WE WILL FLUSH YOU LEE AND SO CAL, AND BY THE WAY FINISH SCHOOL AND LEARN TO SPELL AND QUIT TRADING FOOD STAMPS FOR BOOZE. MAYBE HUCKABEE WILL PRAY FOR YOU AND SAVE YOU IF YOU WANT TO COMMIT TO A HIGER BEING, LOL ME.

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Susan, Tampa, FL — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:25:39 GMT

Wow, First Read, your Anti-Obama bias is showing bigtime!

Why haven't you posted the latest ZOGBY TRACKING POLL from IOWA which came out TODAY that shows HILLARY IN THIRD PLACE and OBAMA IN FIRST PLACE???

RESULTS:

OBAMA has 31%

EDWARDS has 27%

CLINTON has 24%

Isn't this worthy of publishing here First Read?? Haven't heard MSNBC mention it either. WHAT GIVES???

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Barbara C., Pompano Beach, FL — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:25:47 GMT

Hello Everyone....

And a Happy Iowa Caucus Day to all of you....

What has struck me the last month is the Obama Surge and if he can hold this lead, wins tonight, and goes on to move HRC over in N.H.....Dare I say it??? He might just go all the way. A month ago, I had a deep conversation with my sister and she asked me what I am looking for...I answered; "I am looking for the candidate who can unite the country again." I want the next President to have a mandate. With the FL Primaries on the 29th of this month, I am now cast into the UNDECIDED BLOCK of voters in my state. I am waiting to see what happens tonight and next TUE in N.H.

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Jesse, Burnsville, MN — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:27:42 GMT

Jef, the Newsweek article featuring factcheck.org is just stating exactly what Hillary and Edwards have been trying to imply.

What people don't realize, however, is that "guaranteeing" health insurance is not the same as "mandating" health insurance, although Hillary and Edwards would like you to believe so.

Obama's plan guarantees that health insurance will be available for everybody. If you can't afford it, assistance will be provided. It doesn't mandate health insurance, however, which would make not having insurance a crime. The last thing we need to do to solve our health care costs is make criminals out of people who weren't criminals before. Hillary and Edwards think differently, however.

I like Edwards, but this is one issue I disagree with him on.

Obama '08

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Leslie, Lawrenceburg, Indiana — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:29:22 GMT

Come on Edwards! Americans need you!

Edwards/Obama 08'

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SoCal for Edwards — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:29:43 GMT

David Anders Pharr ,Tx.-Board up the windows, load up the assualt rifles and break out the Confederate flag. There will be a Democrat in the White House in January '09. You could probably start early and load your fellow Klan's men in the back of a pick up and head to new Hampshire now and start taking out all the democratic voters so the country isn't ruined.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:29:54 GMT

Remember, Bill didn't win Iowa or New Hampshire.
John Alexander,Edinboro,PA (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:27 AM)

If you are referring to 1992, Bill didn't campaign in Iowa, as he conceded victory to our Senator Harkin, who was also running that year.

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Clinton, a casino vote — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:33:09 GMT

It is a sad day, A Failed Washington self serving Paper Hanger is just that.

We know from past""Promises are pure crap"".

So, what is left to vote for?

This is your Vote to stop these self serving paper hanger!!!!

Don't vote """Promise"""

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Clinton, a casino vote — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:33:35 GMT

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Clinton, a casino vote — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:34:10 GMT

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matt — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:35:16 GMT

The race has to be down the wire. With polls all over the place and every candidate in good position, this will be a long night...

http://www.political-buzz.com/

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John B, Des Moines, IA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:37:15 GMT

"Please vote for Mitt Romney. He is the only one who has the power, intelligence, and management ability to take Christmas back from the Secularists." I don't know what they're doing in NH, Elmer, but somehow this Christian was able to celebrate Christmas without fear of incarceration. I am, however, afraid of Mitt. He's on record as stating that the President has the inherent ability to lock up anyone he wants and to move money around the budget to fund his priorities and deny programs he does not favor. In fact he seems to believe the President has virtually the powers of a dictator. http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/specials/CandidateQA/RomneyQA/

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jerry/corpus christi texas — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:41:40 GMT

Kind of reminds me of that movie "The Dirty Dozen"

With all the parties you can attend tonight and all the free food and drinks and god knows what else, you can carry a pocket full of badges for whatever candidate and go from party to party and just eat and drink until you barf.

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Standard and Poor — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:41:43 GMT

New research shows, it's "Hillary" hillaryclinton.com

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Sid T, Ft. Wayne IN — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:41:53 GMT

Lee in Ca: David in Texus - I will fight to the death for your right to spew stupidity and hate - you have my word.

Lee. You have every right to behave like a moron. Don't let anyone tell you different.

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Caroline, Bethesda, MD — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:43:36 GMT

Where are the latest Reuters/Zogby Tracking poll results?? It is all over the internet, and on other networks, but I haven't seen it anywhere here on First Read, or on MSNBC.

It shows Obama with 31%, Edwards with 27%, and Hillary dropping to 24%!! This is big news!! Why aren't you and MSNBC mentioning it??

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Daniel, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:49:15 GMT

A new ARG poll has a big Clinton lead, but it also projects 83% of registered Democrats among caucus-gers, a highly improbable number at this point. Link to poll: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/few-more-tea-leaves-watch-proportion-of.html

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Nate — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:49:16 GMT

Before going to vote for the future nominee, please munch on this food for thought with regards to Huckabee. One thing that nobody is really talking about is Huckabee's idea of a national sales tax. Reportedly, he wants to remove the IRS and put in a national sales tax. Has anybody really considered this? Iowans, have your thought about this? That means everybody poor or rich gets taxed the same generally. How does he propose that this is adjusted for larger families with dependents or for poorer families? One would eventually have to claim income and family status with some agency...right? So lets call this agency by a different name and not the IRS. That will make it better. Whow, isn't Huckabee brilliant...NOT. What an idiot! Consider adding $24 to every $100 you spend at the grocery store on top of the state sales tax. If your like me with a large family, your grocery bill will climb approximately $5,000 for a year. You can forget about Christmas! Oh wait, just as long as we get a good Christmas message from a baptist minister by television with a floating cross, everything will be alright. Think about buying your next car or clothes for your children. Can anyone sense how mediocre and how stupid Huckabee is? I just hope the people of Iowa think critically about nominating him. Nominate anyone, but Huckabee!!!!

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Cathy, Upstate NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:49:18 GMT

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greg , iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:49:24 GMT

you know what is truly unbelievable here??? Look how much time and money these politicians are wasting to become the president. they talk about healthcare and making sure everyone has it. how many people do you suppose this money they are spending could provide healthcare for? It's not the person running for president, it is all the big companies who give money to the one candidate that will help their company, corporation or cause the most. we need to get back to having our country, our people and our freedom the most important thing on our presidents mind. then we can sort out as a country what is most important. Not as a senate or congress, who we all know have agendas. How about these people in the senate and congress go without health insurance, you know they could afford tok pay for it out of their own pocket. before you go to caucus, before you go to vote for any one person, make sure you do your freedom fair and know who and what you are actually voting for. 4 years can be a long time.

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Scott, PA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:49:44 GMT

Biden will make the surprise tonight. When many caucaus goers see him in the second round, they will jump to his ship.

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Gary Schear, bozeman Montana — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:51:08 GMT

Fear and Loathing or Bravery and Hope.
The choice is clear.

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Andy, Keller, TX — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:53:04 GMT

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22476967/

NBC keeps forgetting about Ron Paul - the soon to be third place winner in Iowa. The link above leaves him out of the expectations game for some reason despite a 3 way tie for 3rd in the Iowa polls leading up to the caucus. The polls are wrong because Ron Paul supporters are more likely to turn out to vote/caucus than the other candidates AND they are less likely to be polled because most are new primary and caucus voters and many new to the Republican party. Ron will finish a strong 3rd with 5 points between him and Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson. This will be a huge win for Paul. Soon we will hear that Dr Paul raised more money than any of the "first tier" candidates Republican or Democrat in Q4. There are fairly regular donar to voter ratios which clearly show Ron will be at least 3rd in Iowa. Outside the MSM echo chamber, take a look at http://www.intrade.com where Ron Paul is third when real money is on the line. (See Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus under "field") As of 11am caucus day, it's 1) Huckabee 61%, 2) Romney 36%, 3) Field (i.e. Paul) 2.2%, 4) McCain 0.9% 5) Thompson 0.3%. Intrade will beat the pundits again. You'll see.

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Angela, Chicago — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:53:25 GMT

Chuck Todd - Have you guys not seen the latest tracking poll for Iowa put out by Zogby this morning? It shows a solid Obama lead and movement away from Clinton. Wish you would post it here.

In case you haven't seen it it says -

Obama leads with 31%, followed by Edwards with 27%, and Clinton trailing with 24%. Looks more in line with the Des Moines Register Poll which showed Obama with a solid lead - but shows Hillary fading, falling behind Edwards.

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Felix, Littleton CO — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:54:15 GMT

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Paula, Boston MA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 16:55:18 GMT

How do the candidates plan to help the middle class WHEN THEY HAVEN'T HELPED THE LOWER CLASS. COLA raises were puny. Have any of these candidates been in a grocery store lately? Paid for gas? Change the limits on food stamps for people on social security
and social security disability. The limits NEED to be raised. Stop keeping these people in a class where they need to so much money for groceries that they can't afford other necessities. HELP THE LOWER CLASS FIRST !!! REVAMP THESE SYSTEMS!!!

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Union Baby, Tennessee — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:01:44 GMT

Sierra & Denise,
You folks can chant and cheer all you want, but the bottom line and true fact of the matter - Obama will never win in the south. You know it and so do I (having lived here my entire life). Unless you want another 4 years of repugnant control you need to ask those Biden, Dodd, Richardson, & Kunich folks to vote for Edwards.

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Real Democrat, CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:04:15 GMT

I want to congratulate the nasty Obama supporters who have managed to bamboozle the main stream media into believing that this 2 bit Charley Nobody with a resume as thin as Ally McBeal is presidential timber. I will be voting for any Repub in the fall. The Obama-loving media (with MSNBC right up there in first place) has done it again. Good job Matthews, Schuster, Scarborough, Carlson--you brought down this "haughty woman" and put her in her place. You have also deprieved this country of a potential great president. And you've turned me (after 37 years voting Democrat) into a Republican.
Dean, Waterbury, CT (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:55 AM)
----------------------------------------------------
Don't blame Obama for your change of heart. Spoken like a typical Clintonista: Blame others for one's own shortcomings.

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J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:08:40 GMT

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J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:09:58 GMT

By the way.....Zogby had Kerry winning the election in 2004.
Better be careful before you hang your hat on that poll.

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Ex-Republican, Macon, GA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:12:43 GMT

Please, let's keep the discussion civil. All we're doing is deciding which of the Democrats will be the next President. The GOP side is only to determine who their candidate is, and whether they get 36% or 40% of the vote in the national election depends on who runs for the D's.

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Chuck, San D — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:13:10 GMT

anythiing less than a 7 point win is a loss for barack.

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Josh Grainger, Grenville SC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:17:21 GMT

Union Baby - You folks can chant and cheer all you want, but the bottom line and true fact of the matter - Obama will never win in the south.

Of course, no Democrat, let alone Obama, has done well in the south in the last 40 years for the general election.

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Bill D — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:23:03 GMT

If Obama does not win by at least 5-6 points as predicted in the polls, it does not look good.

Obama HAS to win and win big for it to be a win.

Expectations are high that he will crush his opponents by 5-6 points. He better or it looks bad!

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nasir, sajjad miami,fl — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:23:37 GMT

The neo-conned owned media is potraying obama as the good guy for the democratic nominee so he can make hillay and edwards look bad the real the only defeat for the republicans remember the us is not ready for a black president who is inexpeireiced neverless to say american is not ready for a woman president we need an expericened white man for the sake of the us

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Travis, Richmond, Kentucky — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:24:46 GMT

Jees, Elmer. That is frightening. Where's your christian love and compassion. If your biggest concerns are imprisoning more innocent people and wrestling the "Happy Holiday" season from people who don't want to shove their religious views down your throat, then you need to grow up. Which is suprising, wiith a name like Elmer, I would figure you to be quite old indeed. Learn to share our country, our flag and our party with other people. take care nutcase.

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Doug, San Diego — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:24:59 GMT

David Anders from Pharr, TX re: Huckabee on Leno
"HE GOT STANDING OVATION FROM EVERY ONE, AND THIS IS LIBERAL CALIFORNIA---WATCH OUT HERE COMES ANOTHER REGAN STORY"
I'd like to make three points concerning your post, David: 1. It's Reagan, not Regan. I hated the guy but at least I can spell his name. 2. Californians don't get into the "free" studio audiences at nationally televised TV shows, those are pretty much all tourists from flyover states like yours, David, so their reaction to Huckabee is no indication of Huckabee doing well out here, trust me. C. QUIT YELLING AT US! LEARN TO SPELL, AND LEARN TO PUNCTUATE. DID YOU EVEN FINISH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, YOU NEANDERTHAL?

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Kurt Thomas, Bristol, Conn — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:25:10 GMT

Why is it that we can always tell when a religious bigot is writing comments? My Catholic roots have had it up to here! You "EVANGELICALS" have plenty of nerve thinking YOU are God's chosen people - Your arrogance is making the rest of the nation SICK. Try using your OWN brain instead of your pastors to decide a candidate - or this will be the last time your state has the lead on caucuses.

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Pat Huntington NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:25:13 GMT

The only big news that will come out of Iowa tonight is that several of the lower end candidates will end their campaigns. The winners tonight will be anyone who polls first and second, because this year is very different from years past, when we have the big virtual national primary day in February. Also, the Iowa Caucus method is so draconian, its not fair.

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Rob, Phoenix, AZ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:26:45 GMT

MEMO TO BARACK OBAMA: What the media creates, it can also destroy. The media will push you off your pedestal as surely as it placed you there to begin with.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:31:52 GMT

I find the idea that if the candidate one supports is not viable, that candidate then tells his supporters who their second choice should be. Isn't that a bit presumptious of a candidate to do that? My vote is just that, MY VOTE. I don't think I want anyone, even a candidate that I have supported, telling me how to exercise that right. I don't get the reasoning behind that.
Dot, Illinois (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:12 AM)

It's a recommendation, usually one that benefits the candidate you are supporting. It's not binding, however, and people are free to switch to whichever candidate they choose.

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GAB, Austin, TX — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:35:07 GMT

Keep in mind that David Anders Pharr, TX said in a post yesterday that he is from ARKANSAS, he's not a Texan. Enough said!

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:37:10 GMT

Also, the Iowa Caucus method is so draconian, its not fair.
Pat Huntington NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:25 PM)

People are allowed to support whomever they want. They are allowed to decide MINUTES before the caucus if they want to caucus for the Republicans or the Democrats. On the Democratic side, they have the opportunity to persuade people to support their candidate.

Draconian means excessively harsh or cruel. What about the process I described leads you to believe they are excessively harsh or cruel?

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:37:52 GMT

Yeah, for all you people whining about the polls (good lord! NOW the polls matter?) it's on the MSNBC home page. I'm pretty sure more people will look at that than First Read.

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Dot, Illinois — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:40:28 GMT

Thanks, Carrie. Hopefully Senator Biden will be viable so that will be a choice his supporters won't have to face.

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:41:50 GMT

".....I want to congratulate the nasty Obama supporters who have managed to bamboozle the main stream media into believing that this 2 bit Charley Nobody with a resume as thin as Ally McBeal is presidential timber. I will be voting for any Repub in the fall. The Obama-loving media (with MSNBC right up there in first place) has done it again. Good job Matthews, Schuster, Scarborough, Carlson--you brought down this "haughty woman" and put her in her place. You have also deprived this country of a potential great president. And you've turned me (after 37 years voting Democrat) into a Republican......"
Dean, Waterbury, CT (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:55 AM)

See, I told you so, and there are many. many others too.
It's Hillary or Bust as far as I'm concerned. Obama gets the nomination and I vote for ANY Republican that runs against him.
...and I do mean ANY Republican that runs against him.
J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:08 PM)

Haha. Yes, instead of letting Matthews, Schuster, Scarborough, Carlson tell us what to think, we should now let Dean from Waterbury, CT tell us (no offense to Dean).

J. Merle, since you seem to have two ultimate goals - a Democrat winning the White House, and Clinton being that Democrat - I find it odd that you 1) don't want Independents voting for her, and 2) don't want her to be the 2nd choice of Kucinich voters (and possibly others). Also, I find it odd that if she should lose the nomination, you will be voting Republican - which to my "Obama-rama-ding-dong", simple mind - seems antithetical to your ultimate goal.

Since Obama and Clinton are essentially the same on policy issues, and the only real difference is how they tell us they will govern and achieve those goals, I am sincerely troubled by your vehement opposition to Obama. You dislike him so much that you would vote for "ANY" Republican, even though his goals and policies are essentially the same as Clintons?

Something tells me that this is part of the reason why we, as a party, have had trouble over the last decade.

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Joe S, Dub-C — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:43:03 GMT

It is disheartening to see NBC with a Politics director that refuses to mention Ron Paul on the day of the Iowa caucus. But since Dr. Paul deals with government, not politics, you may be out of a job if he is elected.

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billy,muskegon,MI — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:45:49 GMT

Hello my name is billy and Ithink that obama should win!

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raf — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:46:02 GMT

I think some of you are misconstruing Elmer's post. Mitt is not a decorated Vietnam war hero; none of his five sons serve in the military; and the attack on secularists is a jab at Mitt's injection of faith into the campaign. It's called sarcasm people.

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Nashville_fan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:49:16 GMT

I love all the posts about what "the south" is ready for. "The south" is ready for a government that actually FUNCTIONS! We're not still living on plantations folks - I guess 2008 is the year that the rest of America finds out!

Obama '08

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nadeem — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:49:41 GMT

Two comments on Hillary:

1st - I agree with the comment - Good from afar, but far from good! The closer she gets to voting day, the worse she looks. Watch for her to plumet in NH as well.

2nd - On a talk show this morning, she bragged that she was the first High level American to vist Bosnia after the Dayton Peace accord.

Impressive right, when challenged by the host who stated that the trip was her and wait for it.....Sinbad!

Hillary was speechless and strated to change the subject. She assumed the host had not done her homework. I hear Sinband like tea aswell.

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Mike Brooks, Eugnene, Oregon — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:51:15 GMT

I love the spin of the Clinton campaign. They would us all belive that she can come in third in all of the primaries and is still the most viable candidate. The best news from Iowa, and NH, is that we will be rid of Clinton and her nutty mob of "womyn" supporters and get down to serious issues like the economy, jobs, Jobs, JOBS, getting out of Iraq, ending outsourcing, ending the insane guest worker visas, reigning in corporations, taxing the living snot out of investors and the wealthy, and shipping the millions of illegals back to Mexico.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:51:16 GMT

CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:41 PM)

I watch Morning Joe every morning. To say he fawns over Obama is an understatement. Two months ago, he was fawning over Hillary Clinton.

Also, J, what do you have to say about all of the people who have posted that they would vote Republican if Hillary is the nominee? Wouldn't the same argument that you made above apply?

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John Alexander,Edinboro,PA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:52:03 GMT

OPPPS, Carrie you are right about Bill conceding Iowa, sorry. My point was that this is just the beginning and that there is still a lot of movement for most of the candidates to win.
GO IOWANS, GO AMERICA! I wish I could see the caucuses, it sounds so interesting to have everyone in the room talking together and making a difference.
Ain't democracy grand!

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MK,MO — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:53:54 GMT

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--NSMsnbc — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:56:01 GMT

My vote is just that, MY VOTE.
Dot, Illinois

**I think you could consider it to be more of an endorsement from the candidates who know each other the best. I'll hope Biden supporters don't need to worry about that option.
*It's curious, the media lumps Richardson supporters with Obama and Biden supporters with Clinton based on the issues, change and experience. I would have lumped Richardson (mainstream Dem) with Edwards or Clinton and Biden (more Independent) with Obama. But then again, I operate on the notion that people/voters in lump are stupid, which is correct more often than one might imagine. People don't say what they think nor think what they say.

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Dean, Waterbury, CT — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:59:11 GMT

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Rick, WS, NC — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:59:39 GMT

The marching sound you hear is the lemming party getting ready to ride the obama wave off the cliff of electoral politics...pick obama and cheney could win in November...obama has nothing, he's an empty suit, get over it.

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Eric, Missouri — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:00:35 GMT

I consider myself a centrist. Obama and the gang are to far left, and he has practically no experience.

If Hillary or Biden doesn't get the nomination I will be voting Republican for the first time in my 45 years.

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Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:06:58 GMT

Union Baby, Tennessee: '...Sierra & Denise,
You folks can chant and cheer all you want, but the bottom line and true fact of the matter - Obama will never win in the south....'

NO !! I reject that thinking, UB
ALL Democrats have had problems in he South

Should we put out a 'whites, only' sign on our nominating process ?

Actually, the only campaign that edged into 'racial issues' was the Clinton campaign.
I don't think even the Republicans are as dirty as the Clintons and Mark Penn!!

An Obama victory, even by itself would change American society fundamentally.
I grew up in the sixties, seeing the marches....
We've come a LONG way, we still have a long way to go

'....Fear and Loathing or Bravery and Hope.
The choice is clear....'
Gary Schear, bozeman Montana

Thank you Gary !!

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jef — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:13:08 GMT

Nashville_fan:

MYTH: It would cost too much money.
FACT: A single-payer universal system would cost no more than we're already spending on health care, according to studies by the Congressional Budget Office, the General Accounting Office (GAO), the Lewin Group, and the Boston University School of Public Health. The GAO estimates if the United States changed to a universal single-payer system, it would save in the short run: $34 billion in insurance overhead and $33 billion in hospital and physician administrative costs. This savings would come from providing timely care to those who would otherwise delay care, thereby becoming sicker and more expensive to treat.
The cost of serving the newly insured would be about $18 billion. The cost of providing additional services to the currently insured-due to elimination of co-pays and deductibles-would be about $46 billion.

MYTH: It is socialized medicine.
FACT: A single-payer universal health plan is not socialized medicine. Under socialized medicine, the government owns the hospitals and clinics. Doctors and nurses are government employees. A single-payer universal health plan preserves private ownership and employment. It has no more in common with socialized medicine than does Medicare. What's unique about a single-payer universal health plan is that all health-care risks are placed in a universal risk pool covering everyone.

MYTH: Americans would pay more.
FACT: Several studies show costs for middle-class Americans would not increase. All but the poorest Americans would pay more income tax, but in most cases the tax would be equal to or less than what they currently pay for health insurance premiums, co-pays and deductibles, which would largely be eliminated. Money to take care of the currently uninsured would come from money saved by eliminating private insurance overhead costs and by spending less on high-tech equipment that duplicates or exceeds what's needed in any geographic region.

MYTH: The United States has the best health care in the world.
FACT: The United States has higher infant mortality, higher surgical mortality and lower life expectancy than Canada. The United States has a much lower rate of access to primary care doctors than Canada. Canada has the same acute care bed-to-population ratio as the United States. Patient satisfaction, quality of care and outcome of care in Canada equal or exceed that in the United States, according to the U.S. General Accounting Office. For this lower quality, Americans pay 40 percent per capita more than Canadians do on health care.

Finally and probably most importantly:
MYTH: U.S. physicians don't want a single-payer universal health plan.
FACT: Despite pervasive negative spin, 57.1 percent of U.S. physicians believe a single-payer system with universal coverage would be the best option for the United States, according to a 1999 New England Journal of Medicine survey

jesse, burnsville:

Obama lies and disorts facts in his ads, and you just look the other way around. I wonder what you would have written if it was Hillarys doing this ?

Every citizen would be covered under a national united health care system and administrative costs could be drastically reduced. According to the article Make Healthcare a Right. It's Cheaper! by By John R. Battista, M.D. and Justine A. McCabe, Ph.D., studies have shown that with a publicly administered system health care costs would have been reduced in Connecticut by two billion dollars in 1999 by the reduction of administrative costs along with other different medical buying techniques such as buying medications in bulk.

that was 9 years ago, and one state

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Fred C. Dobbs, Sierra Madre, New Mexico — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:13:28 GMT

Let us home that 2008 is the last of this Iowa caucus madness. Never have so few mattered so little to so many.

In less than 7 hours you can all take your favorite poll and stick it where the sun don't shine.

And MSNBC, that goes double for your web site.

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Sierra,SF — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:17:55 GMT

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jerry/corpus christi texas — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:18:19 GMT

Draconian means excessively harsh or cruel. What about the process I described leads you to believe they are excessively harsh or cruel?

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:37 PM)

I think what he means Carrie is that you have to go out into that ungodly weather to go vote.

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Kristin, Williamsburg, Va — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:19:01 GMT

I thought First Read was fair, until today.

You always publish poll results. Some are well-known, like Zogby and famous newspaper/network ones, and some are less well-known like the NH one you cited yesterday.

So, why have you failed to print the results of the latest Iowa Zogby poll which was just released this morning?? Is it because it shows Hillary dropping to 3rd and McCain to 4th in their respective caucuses?

Let's get real here. You can't play games and expect us to take you seriously. If you print some no-name poll results yesterday, which are favorable to Hillary and McCain, then you should most certainly print the well-known Zogby tracking poll today which is not as favorable. Right??

Obama 31%
Edwards 27%
Clinton 24%

I'm a Democrat, so I didn't memorize the GOP results, but I did notice the order was

Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain

Wish you would print the entire poll here on First Read. Thank you -

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Diane, Knoxville, TN — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:26:08 GMT

Wow! I know there aren't many of us Fred Thompson people around, but guess what?

THOMPSON is BEATING MCCAIN IN THE LATEST IOWA CAUCUS ZOGBY POLL!!!

Thompson has edged out McCain for the all-important THIRD PLACE!!! Great news!!!

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Frank, Chicago — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:28:11 GMT

I would like to thank MSNBC and the other media outlets for irresponsibly influencing one of the most important presidential elections in our country's history. Ratings and a 'good fight' are really not what it's all about. Forget about the million dollar war chests; what impacts election results are the slanted views presented for ratings by our righteous journalists. But hey, why would you care about responsible journalism. After all, now you will have a lot to talk about when the country elects another loser.

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Russ, KC,MO — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:29:04 GMT

The simple truth is that the reason the Democtatic feild is running so close is they are all good canidates. The diffrence between them is in the details, their core ideas and message is all the same. Pick one of the top three or the second tier, they are all viable in the upcoming general election. The Republicans on the other hand have one canidate that even stands a chance in the general that is McCain. Like it or not the Bush effect has kept and really strong Republicans out of the race. McCain is running this time around only because his age makes it impossible for him to wait another 4 years. So Dems stop nit picking with each other and support your canidate in the primaries but remember the big picture come november. I am sure the Rep. on the site are going to take exception with this post but why else is there so little excitement in there camps.

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Victor Hugo, Los Angeles, CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:30:11 GMT

Republicans (The 3 R's: Racist, Rich, and Real Religious) want for Obama to win the nomination idiots! That's why the polls are high, those who want the Republicans (3 R's) to win are voting in Obama's favor in the polls to influence the Iowa Caucus because he would never win in a General Election and they know that! As a person, I like Obama, but for this country's sake, Clinton or Edwards needs to win the nomination or we'll have another evil, religious hypocritical Republican!! Wake up and use your heads, not your pride and hearts!!

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Victor Hugo, Los Angeles, CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:33:23 GMT

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vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:35:09 GMT

Since Obama and Clinton are essentially the same on policy issues, and the only real difference is how they tell us they will govern and achieve those goals, I am sincerely troubled by your vehement opposition to Obama(Clinton). You dislike him(her) so much that you would vote for "ANY" Republican, even though his goals and policies are essentially the same as Clintons?(Obama's)

Something tells me that this is part of the reason why we, as a party, have had trouble over the last decade.

CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:41 PM)

J-
Well said, except that your sentiment holds true for anyone expressing that warped logic, whichever candidate they support. I could have written the same thing, and I wish I had.
Here's Gail Collins in today's NYT with a real funny op-ed on tonight's circus;

As the presidential candidates tell them every single day, Iowans deserve to be the nation’s kingmakers because they are exceptional citizens who take their responsibilities very, very seriously. So tonight, even though it’s very cold — even though it’s Hokies vs. Jayhawks in the Orange Bowl — the sturdy Iowa voters will pull on their parkas and go out to fulfill their historic destiny. Perhaps as many as 15 percent of them!

“Money will become irrelevant once somebody wins the Iowa caucus,” said John (I Currently Have No Money) Edwards. “The winner of the Iowa caucus is going to have huge amounts of money pouring in.” Edwards, the Democratic third-runner, has spent more time in Iowa than many Iowans, who have a tendency to flee to Florida in the winter."

The rest is here;

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/03/opinion/03collins.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

Van

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Jane Smith, Concord, NH — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:36:21 GMT

I have to wonder, Barbara C, why you are waiting until Iowa and NH are over before you pick a candidate? Why not pick YOUR choice, not one whom other people support? I will vote next Tuesday here in NH for Senator Clinton, and nothing that happens in any other state will make a bit of difference to me. I'd encourage you to go to hillaryclinton.com, where you will find information on all the Senator's positions, and make a decision for yourself, not one based on the voting in other states.

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mike oh — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:42:12 GMT

Since Obama and Clinton are essentially the same on policy issues, and the only real difference is how they tell us they will govern and achieve those goals, I am sincerely troubled by your vehement opposition to Obama. You dislike him so much that you would vote for "ANY" Republican, even though his goals and policies are essentially the same as Clintons?

Now you're saying they're essentially the same??? What happened to 'Bush lite?'

I can't believe I'm saying it, but I have to agree with Dean and JMerle. I've been a Dem all my life, my first vote was for Walter Mondale, voted Dem in every local and national election since.

It's not so much his hate filled supporters, I blogged in '04 for Wes Clark and I know people get caught up and say things. Besides, half of the loudmouths in here are probably Repubs anyway. But the media has really affected it for me. To sit and try and watch a political show and hear your candidate trashed day in and day out over her 'cackle' or 'shrillness', to have Obama shoved down my throat.

But mostly it's Obama himself, he's become meaner and more divisive than everyone has accused Hillary or Edwards of being, and of course the media doesn't call him on any of it. He trashed Gore and Kerry, Accused Clinton and all the rest of the senators who vote for the authorization for Iraq of killing Bhutto. Called Clinton 'Just like Bush, made fun of Edwards for being a trial lawyer. It's over a line for me. He's not a nice guy. If he says that stuff about his own party, if he feels that my candidate is a lying republican, then what does that make me? Isn't he accusing me of being a republican?

I could never bring myself to vote for a republican, so I'll just stay home or write someone in, but I won't vote for someone who insults me and doesn't really seem to think he needs a vote from a 'republican lite' lifelong Dem like me.

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B.Yeates — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:42:38 GMT

Step up don't be shy, hillaryclinton.com and remember we have drive thru caucus service available.

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John Doe, The Peanut Gallery — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:44:17 GMT

"But movement candidacies have to have victories; they die quick deaths if they lose. Just ask Howard Dean."

Yeah... because Howard Dean hasn't gone on to do anything important since the 2004 nomination contest. /snark

Seriously though, Dean went on to be a better fundraiser than McAuliffe amd instituted the 50 state strategy which put Webb, Tester and many others in Congress. It would have been nice to have a people powered candidate like Dean (or Gore) in this contest. But I'll settle for an expanded majority and a rational President for now.

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:44:51 GMT

I watch Morning Joe every morning. To say he fawns over Obama is an understatement. Two months ago, he was fawning over Hillary Clinton.

Also, J, what do you have to say about all of the people who have posted that they would vote Republican if Hillary is the nominee? Wouldn't the same argument that you made above apply?

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:51 PM)

The guys on TV definitely have favorites. But I don't listen to them any more than I would listen to Dean from Waterbury, CT. Just because they have a TV show doesn't mean they are smarter that I am. And it definitely doesn't mean they can influence my vote.

And yes, the argument I made above applies to EVERYONE who says they will vote Republican if their candidate doesn't win. How many Republicans have you heard say "If Romney doesn't win the nomination, I'm voting for Clinton or Obama."? Very few compared to the Democrats doing the same thing.

I think Clinton is a great candidate. I just happen to like Obama better, which is why I will be voting for him. But if he doesn't win the nomination, you can be damn sure I will be voting for whoever does.

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Michael — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:51:01 GMT

Let's not bring up Kosovo. Biden called Molsovic a war criminal to his face and begged Clinton for 2 years to get invovled. He is also the only candidate to take a stand on Sudan.

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John Doe, The Peanut Gallery — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 18:56:59 GMT

Wow. Look at all the little concern trolls. "If Obama doesn't win by 5-6% then it's not a victory" "The evil left wing media turned me into a Republican because they didn't worhsip my candidate!" And let's not forget our friends in Texas. One day their going to realize that their caps lock is on...

Folks, your candidate is not entitled to a win. If your candidate comes in with more votes than any other candidate it is, in fact, a win no matter what the margin of victory. And if the MSM actually changed your party ID... well, then you're kind of a goober anyway and I feel bad that the Republicans have one more idiot joining their ranks.

It's all over in about a month and then we can all go back to the usual dividing line of R versus D.

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Steve, Hartford, CT — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:00:48 GMT

"Also, J, what do you have to say about all of the people who have posted that they would vote Republican if Hillary is the nominee? Wouldn't the same argument that you made above apply?"
Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:51 PM)

Well, Carrie, I don't know what J has to say about it, but I do think it goes both ways. Clinton is my least favorite candidate on the Dem side but every last one of the GOP candidates is nuts. So while I definitely would not volunteer for Clinton's campaign in the general, I would certainly vote for her. It would definitely be a lesser-of-two-evils vote, because I think Hillary's run is based largely on ambition ("OK, Bill, I didn't divorce you, now it's time to help me get elected") and because I can't stand the thought of 24-28 years of dynasty politics. But there is no question in my mind that America will come to ruin if the GOP wins next year. Their candidates are THAT bad.

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Nashville_fan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:06:23 GMT

jef,

Thanks for all the universal health care info. I am very much in favor of a single payer system, but that is not what any the top 3 Democratic candidates are proposing.

While I would LOVE to see a single payer system, I don't see that happening anytime soon without some MAJOR congressional changes.

While single payer is the ultimate goal, I don't think that health insurance mandates are going to do anything but make the insurance companies richer and those without health insurance poorer.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Jo, CA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:06:59 GMT

Joe S, now your hitting on something. All of these media bozos might be out of a job if Dr. Paul gets elected because they are working for "big corporations" with agendas which is precisely why they are deliberately trying to block his coverage. Wake up America! Ron Paul would be great for this country: no more war means that we get 12 billion dollars back A MONTH to do whatever we need to do to fix this country: health care, education, immigration, we'll have the money to do it with. The eradication of all of these needless, greedy bureaucracies like the IRS and the Department of Energy will give us even more money to fix our country with. Plus people, you wouldn't have to pay state income tax anymore. For the life of me I can't understand why any person in America wouldn't be for that.

I suspect Dr. Paul will do quite well tonight and Chuck Todd will not even report on it tomorrow, as if whatever percentage of votes he got were just "missing" from the total 100%.

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Nashville_fan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:09:01 GMT

To all the Clinton supporters who will vote for a Republican rather than Senator Obama:

Good for you - America is all about choice. While you will be missed, my excitement for change in America overrides my saddness at your departure. I wish you well, and look forward to working with you across the aisle under President Obama's administration.

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vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:10:34 GMT

Seriously though, Dean went on to be a better fundraiser than McAuliffe amd instituted the 50 state strategy which put Webb, Tester and many others in Congress. It would have been nice to have a people powered candidate like Dean (or Gore) in this contest. But I'll settle for an expanded majority and a rational President for now.

John Doe, The Peanut Gallery (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:44

JD-
The Democratic National Committee is BROKE. They have less than three million on hand and while democratic candidates have out raised their republican counterparts by a ratio of almost 2-1, the exact OPPOSITE is true when it comes to the respective committees.

From Chris Cilizza;

"The Democratic National Committee under Howard Dean is losing the fundraising race against Republicans by nearly 2 to 1, a slow start that is stirring concern among strategists who worry that a cash shortage could hinder the party's competitiveness in next year's midterm elections."

From NYT's, "The Caucus";

January 2, 2008, 6:03 pm
Republicans Out-Raised Democrats for National Commitees

By Leslie Wayne

When it comes to fund-raising, Democrats have outpaced Republicans almost across the board. The lone exception is the Republican National Committee, which reported yesterday that it had raised $83 million for the year, easily topping the Democratic National Committee, which had raised $50.5 million in the first 11 months of 2007.

Republicans say that this cash pile — the Republican committee has $17.2 million on hand, compared to the $2.8 million the Democratic committee reported — should help the Republican presidential nominee in the fall.

“Our significant fund-raising advantage over the D.N.C.,” said Alex Conant, a spokesman for the Republican committee, “will put the Republican nominee in a strong position in the general election, with the resources to communicate our message and mobilize voters.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/02/republicans-out-raised-democrats-for-national-commitees/

In a year and cycle where the republicans have been on the run, the one segment of the party dragging the rest down is the pathetic job of capitalizing on the national mood by the Dean-led DNC.
Dean has been a DISASTER as DNC Chairman.

Van

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Colleen — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:11:30 GMT

To Ann of Iowa: You are way off base. Mormons ARE Christians. Most Mormons I know exhibit far more Christ-like behavior than you have exhibited here with your hate-filled rhetoric. Go back to Fox, please.

(And, no, I'm not for Romney. I'm for Edwards.)

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Sinbad — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:13:31 GMT

I know Hillary Clinton. I've flown with Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a great leader. And, I've gotten over the fact that she brought me to Bosnia to be used as a human shield. If I can get over it, you should too!!

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:16:46 GMT

I want to congratulate the nasty Obama supporters who have managed to bamboozle the main stream media into believing that this 2 bit Charley Nobody with a resume as thin as Ally McBeal is presidential timber. I will be voting for any Repub in the fall. The Obama-loving media (with MSNBC right up there in first place) has done it again. Good job Matthews, Schuster, Scarborough, Carlson--you brought down this "haughty woman" and put her in her place. You have also deprieved this country of a potential great president. And you've turned me (after 37 years voting Democrat) into a Republican.

Dean, Waterbury, CT (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:55 AM)
----------------------

Oh go cry in your cheerios already you disgruntled Hillary fan. Stop complaining that people have finally figured out what a huge Washington-insider she is and that she doesn't represent the change we all want.

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kmcwhort, st louis, mo — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:16:55 GMT

It never ceases to amaze me, the things people will say:

The Repuclican machine will eat Obama for dinner
Yeah- because apparently they're going to find the 'dirt' on him that his current competitors have been unable to find- oh no, it's the Rove spin that will do him in

Or how about- the South will never elect him- well sure, because the hugely majority white state where he is competing quite nicely now is just fool's play

Come on guys and gals, give it a break- Obama has done a great job handling his campaign thus far- he's been tested- he's passed with flying colors- stop with the lame excuses of why he can't- and look at why he IS!

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Melissa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:17:06 GMT

Clearly there are a lot of Ron Paul supporters who have extra time while they work at their computers. Every online poll I've looked at sows Ron Paul ahead, yet where are his REAL votes. Perhaps Ron Paul supporters should get some REAL work done instead of skewing the online polls.

Also, Huckabee seems very self-absorbed. He can play the guitar, do karate, party's like a pro, glad to see he lost all the self-absorbed weight he was carrying... but what can he do for the country besides entertain us?

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:20:00 GMT

what measures are taken in the iowa caucuses to insure that everything is on the 'up and up'?
when you are dealing with clinton's corrupt corporate political machine, criminal behavior is inevitable.
are there protections against fraud and other criminal behavior that’s always associated with the clinton's?

MK,MO (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:53 PM)

Oh please...give it a rest already. If you want to know the answers to these, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of sites that will fully explain the caucus process in detail.

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:24:26 GMT

Carrie, Eastern Iowa: '....And P.S. Supporters are free to switch to whomever they want, regardless of what the various campaigns have requested....'

Come on, Carrie !
Don't disappoint me and Joe !!
Joe and I want you to support Barack Obama !
He's the one with the sound judgement
He's the one who opposed the Iraq war, from the beginning

Joe and I want you to support Obama

Happy New Year, Carrie !!
Sierra,SF (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:17 PM)

And where, precisely, have you seen JOE BIDEN himself say that he wants his supporters to switch to Obama as their second choice?

Aside from which, Sierra, I am not a lemming. I make up my own mind.

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all posters are being used today — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:27:29 GMT

If anyone still buying Zogby's polls, then you are just a talker, not thinker. Media long time ago already "killed" their credibility. No need to waist time there.

Instead, read this, specially to Chuck Todd

http://www.dailyhowler.com/

Posters here, do you really know American media ? Do you really know the inside trick ? 99% amwser is NO.

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One Was Enough! — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:27:32 GMT

Is Iowa going to end up creating a Jimmy Carter clone aka Obama? God, I hope not. The word "change" without substance gets you no where.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Mark Thieme — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:28:13 GMT

"Well, Carrie, I don't know what J has to say about it, but I do think it goes both ways. Clinton is my least favorite candidate on the Dem side but every last one of the GOP candidates is nuts. So while I definitely would not volunteer for Clinton's campaign in the general, I would certainly vote for her. It would definitely be a lesser-of-two-evils vote, because I think Hillary's run is based largely on ambition ("OK, Bill, I didn't divorce you, now it's time to help me get elected") and because I can't stand the thought of 24-28 years of dynasty politics. But there is no question in my mind that America will come to ruin if the GOP wins next year. Their candidates are THAT bad."

Carrie, you can make that a double.

Play it again, Steve.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

MK,MO — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:28:50 GMT

Melissa / 'Clearly there are a lot of Ron Paul supporters who have extra time while they work at their computers. Every online poll I've looked at sows Ron Paul ahead, yet where are his REAL votes. Perhaps Ron Paul supporters should get some REAL work done instead of skewing the online polls.'

did the thought that he may actualy win ever cross your mind? if he is ahead you won't hear it through the press, he does not fit into their agenda

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Mark Thieme — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:32:59 GMT

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:37:11 GMT

I think Clinton is a great candidate. I just happen to like Obama better, which is why I will be voting for him. But if he doesn't win the nomination, you can be damn sure I will be voting for whoever does.
CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:44 PM)

As will I, J. I have said all along that whichever gets the nomination will have my full support. I truly want that person to be Joe Biden. If it's not him, honestly I don't know that there is much of a difference to me. I think they are all capable leaders - some more so than others, but I think they all will do a good job.

I don't think Obama is evil. I just don't think he is ready. Biden's closing message was asking us if we could imagine the candidate we support being able to take over the job of president tomorrow. As brilliant as Obama may be, I can't imagine that. Sadly, I can't imagine that with Edwards either. That doesn't mean I won't vote for them in November; it just means that I think there are better options.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Dot, Illinois — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:50:30 GMT

It would definitely be a lesser-of-two-evils vote,Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 2:28 PM)
----------------------------------------------
I have had to do that in past elections and will probably end up doing it again this November. The idealist in me is saddened by that prospect; the realist knows that any of the Democratic candidates is preferable to the Republicans running.

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Chyld Medford, Nashville, TN — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:50:42 GMT

Obama will trounce Hillary tonight!

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:58:30 GMT

J-
Well said, except that your sentiment holds true for anyone expressing that warped logic, whichever candidate they support. I could have written the same thing, and I wish I had.

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:35 PM)

I agree wholeheartedly.

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Lt. Savik, Vulcan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:59:03 GMT

Saa'havik greemisch. Gupta ree-ben?

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Joshua Drake, White Salmon Washington — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:02:03 GMT

I find it interested that "The First Read" basically ignored the ground well support and biggest money maker of last quarter, Ron Paul.

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:03:01 GMT

Now you're saying they're essentially the same??? What happened to 'Bush lite?'...

...I could never bring myself to vote for a republican, so I'll just stay home or write someone in, but I won't vote for someone who insults me and doesn't really seem to think he needs a vote from a 'republican lite' lifelong Dem like me.

mike oh (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:42 PM)

It was not me who referred to her as "Bush lite", so my statement is consistent. And yes, they are essentially the same.

And I agree completely with your last paragraph. I don't care who likes or dislikes Obama or Clinton or whoever. If one is so turned off by the candidate that wins their nomination, just don't vote. There isn't anything wrong with that. But it just does not make sense to vote Republican if your Democratic candidate loses the nomination. The only conclusion I would be able to draw would be that that person is pouting and trying to make a statement.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:08:13 GMT

Obama campaign playing games - spreading rumors that other candidates are throwing their support to Obama:

From OpenLeft:

"Richardson Campaign Response (4.00 / 4)
Hi this is Joaquin with the Richardson Campaign and the rumor is false- there are no deals. These are typical last minute election shenanigans.
Joaquin H. Guerra
Richardson for President
jguerra-at-richardsonforpresidnet.com"

http://www.openleft.com/showComment.do;jsessionid=3E74316838F261993E775C25CED0CEAE?commentId=24139

Dick Flatts, Charlotte, NC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:26 AM)

----------------------------

Wow. I am surprised that doesn't come from a reputable news source. If you aren't going to source a site like the DMR or NBC or even the Clinton News Network, don't tell us anyone is lying about anything. Seriously. Do you think we're that stupid?

The other candidates all know that Hillary has ZERO chance of winning the general election because her negative ratings are almost as bad as Dubya's and he we can't wait to throw out of office in a year. Obama gives the Dems a really good chance of not just taking back the White House, but of expanding their edge in Congress. Hillary would do the opposite.

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:09:12 GMT

I don't think Obama is evil. I just don't think he is ready. Biden's closing message was asking us if we could imagine the candidate we support being able to take over the job of president tomorrow. As brilliant as Obama may be, I can't imagine that. Sadly, I can't imagine that with Edwards either. That doesn't mean I won't vote for them in November; it just means that I think there are better options.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 2:37 PM)

And that is the beauty of our democracy. It seems that people lose sight of that as we move closer to decision-time. I agree with a lot of what you and others say. We just all have different preferences for what we want in our candidate, which is where our disagreement is based. For some reason, people equate disagreement with hate.

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Dot, Illinois — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:12:34 GMT

Carrie

Take as many supporter of Senator Biden as you can with you this evening. Good luck!

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Amy B Portland, ME — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:16:14 GMT

You know, Carrie, you have a point. Of all the candidates, I think Biden is the best qualified to be President on Day One. Oh know! I changed my mind again...fourth time, for me.

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Anne C. — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:16:48 GMT

If second choices become critical tonight, and I think they will, Edwards will win. Because, despite the "directives" of other campaigns, Iowans will make up their own minds as to whom to vote for if their first choice is not viable. And Edwards has been consistently leading in the polls in the "second-choice" voting by significant margins over Obama & Clinton.

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:17:27 GMT

Shadow, your spin is hilarious.
Then again, the all Obama hype is outrageous most of the time anyway. So this isn't anything new.
You're trying to raise the bar for Hillary, and lower it for Obama.
Hillary has a double digit lead nationally. All she needs to do is win the caucus, and win in New Hanpshire, and it's "Good Night Irene" for Lil' Barracky.
Obama is the one who needs to win, and win BIG in Iowa.
If he doesn't, his campaign loses legitimacy, and you can stick a fork in him because he's done. Money, and all.
The Iowa Register will look stupid too. Because it predicted a 7 point Obama win, with 60% of the Caucus goers being 1st time participants. (Not likely, according to mainstream news sources.)
Either way, I just hope the good people of Iowa have the equally good sense to nominate Hillary, who can WIN the general election. Not someone like Obama, who the G.O.P is rooting for, because the know they can beat him.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:38 AM)

--------------

National polls are MEANINGLESS, absolutely MEANINGLESS when the voting process isn't a national one. It is a state-by-state one. Look at what happened in Iowa over the last few weeks. Even as recently as Thanksgiving, Hillary was winning Iowa. Now, she'll be lucky to finish third if the DMR poll of yesterday is to be believed (and I have no doubt on its accuracy). Once she loses Iowa, she can kiss all those other figures goodbye, even the meaningless national numbers. The only reason she leads there is name recognition.

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Felix, Littleton CO — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:18:34 GMT

MIKE HUCKABEE MIGHT OUT DO ALL CANDIDATES BOTH DEMS AND REPUBS, I PREDICT A LANDSLIDE. HE WAS FABULOUS ON JAY LENO AS HE IS ALWAYS. HE GOT STANDING OVATION FROM EVERY ONE, AND THIS IS LIBERAL CALIFORNIA---WATCH OUT HERE COMES ANOTHER REGAN STORY

Gee,just what we need. Another President who looks nice and sunny on TV but doesn't follow current events, read reports, is unfamiliar with even recent history and in general is as dumb as a post.

Like Bush, he doesn't need to check out any pesky real world information. He's got Jesus giving him instructions. If you liked Bush, your going to LOVE this guy. The only difference? Huckabee has no cadre of evil geniuses pulling his strings. His handlers are apparently as dumb as he is. It would be like having a religious Ted Baxter for President. For those too young to know who Ted Baxter was see the Mary Tyler Moore show.

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Julie, Madison, Wisconsin — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:18:43 GMT

Well, it is looking good for Barack Obama. Both the Des Moines Register poll and the latest Zogby poll have him with a strong, commanding lead.

Hope he wins tonight!!!

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:19:30 GMT

American Research Group - Clinton is surging in Iowa:

Dates are Dec. 31-Jan 2 (Dec. 26-28 in parentheses)

Clinton 34 (31)
Obama 25 (24)
Edwards 21 (24)

Dickie Flatts, Charlotte, NC (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:45 AM)

------------------

You CLinton people can keep using that poll that isn't worth using for toilet paper all you want. It doesn't matter. It's MEANINGLESS. They've never come within a mile of getting anything right politically. How they're even in business as a statistical organization is an utter joke.

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Nashville_fan — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:21:48 GMT

Carrie,

I hope you have a great time at the caucus tonight! I look forward to hearing your first hand perspective on how the evening goes!

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:22:07 GMT

The liberal media will do anything to see Hillary wins and turn this great country into a socialist piece of crap which will flush down the toilet with our freedoms.

David Anders Pharr ,Tx. (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 10:55 AM)

----------------

Really? MSNBC and First Read as well as the NY Times have all been highly critical of her and her campaign in recent weeks. I think it directly relates to her slide in the polls and will be the reason she doesn't win Iowa and fails to win the Democratic nomination.

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MK,MO — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:22:25 GMT

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Jane Smith, Concord, NH — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:25:55 GMT

"Biden's closing message was asking us if we could imagine the candidate we support being able to take over the job of president tomorrow. "

And that person, my friends, is Hillary Clinton.

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vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:26:45 GMT

"Ashe:
It used to be fun because there were so many thoughtful posters here. I read it professionally as I am involved in a campaign and we peruse a lot of these political blogs to see what people are saying.
Actually I am the "decider" in our campaign and I decide which blogs to read and what to look for."

Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, September 20, 2007 3:39 PM)

We are very lucky to have a, "decider", right here to give us their insider's insights. I can hardly wait until he/they(?) can reveal just WHICH campaign they are making those important decisions for.

Van
(Ahoy Baron!)

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Laurie, Manasquan, NJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:32:33 GMT

Joe Biden is clearly the most qualified of all the candidates on either side to be our next president. I hope he has a good showing this evening so that he can continue on. I've been watching Biden for years and he always impresses me. I would feel that our country was in good hands were he to be the next president. As much as I would love to see a woman in the White House and I've been waiting my whole life to see it happen, my money is on Joe. Now if Clinton wins the nomination....I'll be thrilled as well. A woman would be good for this country in many ways. Now a Clinton/Biden ticket or vice versa....that would be awsome!!!

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Brando, New York — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:33:23 GMT

Edwards / Obama '08..that's THE DNC's ticket right there.

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Mark Thieme — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:35:00 GMT

Sometimes I wonder if Obama should have run for president. The hardest thing he does is bust heads and get bad with the others in the race.

For Clinton... she loves it, as long as she is winning.

Loves to mix it up with the Prussian Guard surrounding her, protecting her every gaffe.

Edwards lives for the battle and he is used to winning.

Obama still trusts in old-fashioned ideas like honor, honesty, integrity, patriotism... but don't get me wrong, he has done what he had to do without flinching.

It is as if he wants to be president for all these great idealist reasons, but he doesn't want to play dirty like you have to to win.

Now he is a torn man... musing out loud about "never doing this again."

Some would see this ambiguity as a reflection of a lack of necessary toughness. Trust me on this one: There is no one tougher and more committed to America in this race than Obama.

If he wins, we will have a president for the ages... if he loses, at least we went to Iowa and played ball on the Field of Dreams.

Obama is the only candidate who stays awake at night worrying about hurting someone's feelings, worrying about the shady tactics that seem to be part of the game.

But know this, he doesn't take steroids, but when he slides into home plate it is with spikes held high.

Blessings on him and blessings on Iowa... blessings on these great united States.

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:36:50 GMT

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 1:35 PM)

p.s. That op-ed is pretty funny. It makes the last year seem pretty ridiculous doesn't it?

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:40:06 GMT

And Carrie... if it weren't for Obama, I would be working for Biden. The man is one of the great missed bets in American history.

Good luck to him tonight and saludo to all those who recognize a great American.
Mark Thieme (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 2:32 PM)

Bah! You should be working for Biden anyway. :)

Good luck to you and your guy tonight.

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Just me — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:47:36 GMT

"And Carrie... if it weren't for Obama, I would be working for Biden. The man is one of the great missed bets in American history. "

Too true. Why we're rangling over drooling fools and cowards like Rudy Toots, Magic Mittens or lesser evils like ANYONE on the Democratic side, genuine good choices like Biden get lost in the noise.

That the repugs don't know shame and just hide in their holes after Bush / Cheney just shows the human capacity to be an unrelenting and untrainable moron.

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J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:59:03 GMT

".....J. Merle, since you seem to have two ultimate goals - a Democrat winning the White House, and Clinton being that Democrat - I find it odd that you 1) don't want Independents voting for her, and 2) don't want her to be the 2nd choice of Kucinich voters (and possibly others). Also, I find it odd that if she should lose the nomination, you will be voting Republican - which to my "Obama-rama-ding-dong", simple mind - seems antithetical to your ultimate goal.
Since Obama and Clinton are essentially the same on policy issues, and the only real difference is how they tell us they will govern and achieve those goals, I am sincerely troubled by your vehement opposition to Obama. You dislike him so much that you would vote for "ANY" Republican, even though his goals and policies are essentially the same as Clintons?
Something tells me that this is part of the reason why we, as a party, have had trouble over the last decade. ....."
CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:41 PM)

CitizenJ;
I am fully aware that my decision not to support Barrack Obama angers and displeases you. You have expressed your vitriol for me, and for all Clinton supporters in many ways over the course of the past few months.
That's part of the reason why I don't and won't support Barrack Obama.
You make the claim that I don't want indpendents to support The Democratic Candidate.
I've never said that, and nothing could be farther from the truth.
I just don't want independents picking my party's candidate for me.
The Democratic Candidate should be picked by the base of the Democratic Party, and should first appeal to Democratic voters.
If independents choose to support that candidate after the primary process is over, so be it.
I do not want a candidate who's primary support comes from outside the party, as does Barrack Obama's. (...at least according to the polling data.)
There's absolutely nothing wrong with wanting my party's nominee to be selected by people from within my party.
The "problem" that Democrats have had over the course of the last 14 years, is that they have tried to placate to left wing independent whackos who think we're going to hold hands with republicans and sing "cumbaya'" as does Barrack Obama.
We've allowed ourselves to be dragged from center/left to extremist left and as Nelson Rockefeller once said "the party of extremeism always loses."
Obama talks a good game. He uses the word "change" frequently.
But, he never explains what the change is that he's going to bring.
Furthermore, his healthcare plan leaves millions uninsured, and he lied (as did his supporters on this board) when he said that he passed healthcare reform in Illinois. The Illinois Healthcare Justice Act of 2004 did little more than establish task forces and study groups who's findings weren't due until three years after he left office, at taxpayer expense.
There are many, many other reasons why I don't, and won't support him but perhaps the biggest reason is his inexperience.
He may be a nice guy.
But, he doesn't have the experience to be President.
I am rather troubled by the hatred, anger and vitriol I've seen on this board towards Hillary, from Obama supporters, most of whom aren't even Democrats.
I suspect that sort of thing has a lot more to do with why our party had "trouble" over the course of the last few Presidential elections, than my decision to support the one candidate who is most likely to win next November.

Hillary For President 2008! *** Experience Counts ***

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Daniel, Honolulu — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:01:44 GMT

In terms of electability in November, Obama has a huge advantage over Hillary. In theory, she would probably be a decent president, but she is far too polarizing to ever win a general election. If Hillary is having this much trouble against her Democratic opponents, it does not bode well for her fortunes in an election where she will facing a huge smear campaign that Republicans are itching to unload on her if she's on the ballot. It's fascinating how the Republican candidates love to mention Hillary as a way of turning out voters but they will seldom speak Obama's name. You could argue that she's more of a lightning rod than abortion or gay marriage.

For a party that is having difficulty mobilizing their base, the GOP's job would become much easier if Hillary were the Democratic nominee. Even if the pro-life "family values" Christian voters have reservations about the Republican nominee (whoever it may be), they would show up in droves just to vote against her. However, if Obama is on the ballot in November, many of the anti-Hillary conservatives will simply stay home and complain about what the world is coming to. Many Democratic voters are either unaware of this or they are so loyal to Clinton that they turn a blind eye to her general election weaknesses.

Anyone whose had any exposure to conservative political circles knows that a huge chunk of the country has hated Hillary for decades and they always will regardless of what she has done or said since her husband left office. Obama has far less baggage and GOP smear campaign fodder. Some Christian conservatives are genuinely intrigued by him because he seems more authentic and coherent when talking about his faith as opposed to Hillary who sounds mechanical and pre-programmed whenever she tries to discuss anything related to religion.

The GOP candidates won't admit it, but they strongly prefer to run against Hillary. She's an easy target and their best hope to keep the White House in Republican hands until 2012. You'll have a hard time finding any religious conservative over 35 who could be persuaded vote for Hillary. However, many of them have still not made up their minds about Obama which opens up the possibility for him to win their support in a long election season.

Bottom line: Clinton could still get the nomination, but she can't win in November. Obama's biggest challenge is beating Hillary in the primaries, but if he does, Obama has the chance to unite the country in favor of true change and win the general election comfortably.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:08:16 GMT

(SEMI)Fearless predictions;

33-28-24-15

Not saying who gets what... Clinton will carry the democratic voters. Obama will carry the republican crossovers and the majority of indies...Edwards will be able to claim victory, no matter WHERE he finishes... Turnout will be slightly less than the high-end figures quoted, but among the largest in Ia history...We'll know the republican results HOURS before the democrats...Fred will endorse John McCain before Monday...One of the following will get their ticket punched for the next round Biden/Richardson...Both fields will be HALVED within a week...Rudy finishes BEHIND Ron Paul, who really really surprises everyone...Mitt's strategy and impeccable planning (and hair) that seemed so secure only weeks ago will hinge on New Hampshire...At least FOUR candidates will declare victory tomorrow, and one of them will be gone before Tsunami Tuesday...Hokies win!

Van
(feel like Walter Winchell)

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:10:09 GMT

I'll ask once again: what exactly does Obama mean when he spouts "hope" and "change"? He HAS NO PLAN people, he might as well be running for class president! Just because he can imitate the sound of Martin Luther King's voice and tell you HIMSELF that he's the next JFK does NOT make it true!!! He is spouting empty, flowery prose that means nothing, with no plan to back it up, and I can't believe so many people are blindly following along! By the way, Hillary does not NEED Iowa like Obama does...she will remain strong long after today and she WILL be our next president!!!
Cathy, Upstate NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:49 AM)

-------------

What's Hillary spouting?

Obama is for getting out of Iraq now. He's for access to healthcare for everyone. He's for a completely different course in our foreign policy, one where talk comes before missile fire. He's for working with the Republicans, not fighting with them (some of them do have good ideas!). He's for civil service here and abroad to enlighten the minds of our youth. He's for higher education and the right for everyone to go, not just the elite in society (and afford it).

I could go on, but those are some of the goals that will make America great again. If we become a better, more educated, more enlightened society, the world will be a better place and America will be respected in the world again. Right now, people spit on America and Americans because we have been pompous asses to everyone. That will change on 1/20/09. Let the countdown begin!

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Dot, Illinois — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:10:14 GMT

Kato

If you are out there--same message for you that I sent to Carrie. Takes as many Biden supporters with you as you can.

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:10:14 GMT

Carrie,

I hope you have a great time at the caucus tonight! I look forward to hearing your first hand perspective on how the evening goes!

Nashville_fan (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 3:21 PM)

Ditto. Same to all you other First Read Iowans. I hope everyone else enjoys their caucus watch parties.

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:12:37 GMT

So far, campaigns relying on getting young people to step away from the computer and actually get off their butts and do something, like caucusing or voting, haven't fared nearly as well as the polls predict. Ditto African American candidates in general, who tend to poll better than they do when people actually vote. But never say never. if Obama wins because his young supporters actually decide to engage in the real world then there is hope for a shift in young voter turn-out in 2008. Young voters really are more likely to vote for a candidate who isn't a white male than older voters. If it's the same old story with young voters not making the effort, the polls on Obama are going to look pretty lame. Fine with me. Better chance for Edwards.

Felix, Littleton CO (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 11:54 AM)
-----------

Wasn't part of Bill Clinton's surge in the polls to become the nominee and eventually President due to young people actually voting? Obama seems to be doing an even better job energizing younger people than even Bill did in 1992. I believe they will follow through.

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kenn — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:13:38 GMT

leave it to America where your second vote considered democracy.Thanks Dennis" Im a loser and I know it vote for barack" Kucinich

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:14:12 GMT

And that is the beauty of our democracy. It seems that people lose sight of that as we move closer to decision-time. I agree with a lot of what you and others say. We just all have different preferences for what we want in our candidate, which is where our disagreement is based. For some reason, people equate disagreement with hate.
CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 3:09 PM)

I think when disagreement is couched in terms of anger, it is easily misconstrued as hate. When the way in which you choose to express your disagreement is to belittle those with whom you disagree, it is easily misconstrued as hate.

The reason people often equate disagreement with hate is that those who disagree often do so in a hateful manner. It doesn't have to be that way, and it shouldn't be that way. If we all grew up and realized that not liking your candidate is not a sign of moral bankruptcy or stupidity or whatever other negative you want to label it, this blog (and probably this country) would be a better place.

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Charlie, Bronx, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:16:15 GMT

J. Merle Stanley of Westchester:

YOU are the spinner, dude.

Fact: The Republicans are rooting for Hillary to become the Democratic nominee, because they know she will be easy to beat. It's Obama they fear.

So why don't you change your mind and get behind the only Democrat who has a chance in November: Barack Obama. Hillary is history.

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HP Boston — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:16:36 GMT

You know, Carrie, you have a point. Of all the candidates, I think Biden is the best qualified to be President on Day One. Oh know! I changed my mind again...fourth time, for me.
Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 3:16 PM)

--------------------------------------------------
Amy, Amy, AMY!!! Repeat after me : GIVE ME A DEMOCRAT OR GIVE ME DEATH!
My motto and my bumper sticker!
Screw the crap the rpukes spin, A good democrat votes for the DEMOCRAT! Everyone else is a phony.

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:17:03 GMT

".....I want to congratulate the nasty Obama supporters who have managed to bamboozle the main stream media into believing that this 2 bit Charley Nobody with a resume as thin as Ally McBeal is presidential timber. I will be voting for any Repub in the fall. The Obama-loving media (with MSNBC right up there in first place) has done it again. Good job Matthews, Schuster, Scarborough, Carlson--you brought down this "haughty woman" and put her in her place. You have also deprived this country of a potential great president. And you've turned me (after 37 years voting Democrat) into a Republican......"
Dean, Waterbury, CT (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:55 AM)

See, I told you so, and there are many. many others too.
It's Hillary or Bust as far as I'm concerned. Obama gets the nomination and I vote for ANY Republican that runs against him.
...and I do mean ANY Republican that runs against him.
J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:08 PM)

-----------------

And the numbers are far worse for Clinton than any other candidate. I know no fewer than a dozen people that will vote Republican if Hillary is the nominee. These are die hard Democrats. They spit when they hear the woman speak. "Claws on a chalkboard" is how one describes it. Another actually said he'd rather Dubya get another 4 years than have CLinton win. Those are some strong sentiments out there against this woman in particular and the hatred she has even within her own party. Don't forget that the Republicans would LOVE nothing more than another shot to sling everything including the kitchen sink at the last name "Clinton". The sins of the husband shall be paid for by the blood of the wife in terms of what you'll see between the conventions and November.

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HP Boston — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:18:39 GMT

You know, Carrie, you have a point. Of all the candidates, I think Biden is the best qualified to be President on Day One. Oh NO! I changed my mind again...fourth time, for me.
Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 3:16 PM)

--------------------------------------------------
Amy, Amy, AMY!!! Repeat after me : GIVE ME A DEMOCRAT OR GIVE ME DEATH!
My motto and my bumper sticker!
Screw the crap the rpukes spin, A good democrat votes for the DEMOCRAT! Everyone else is a phony.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:25:18 GMT

".....National polls are MEANINGLESS, absolutely MEANINGLESS when the voting process isn't a national one. It is a state-by-state one. Look at what happened in Iowa over the last few weeks. Even as recently as Thanksgiving, Hillary was winning Iowa. Now, she'll be lucky to finish third if the DMR poll of yesterday is to be believed (and I have no doubt on its accuracy). Once she loses Iowa, she can kiss all those other figures goodbye, even the meaningless national numbers. The only reason she leads there is name recognition. ....."
Mike K, Denver (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 3:17 PM)

Sure Iowa is important, all primaries (and caucuses) are.
But national number do mean a lot, and you know it. You also know that Hillary leads Obama by 20 points nationally.
I suspect that's why you CAPITOLIZED your angry answer to me.
By the way, The Des Moines Register also said the number of first time caucus participants was going to be 60%. (The figure is more like 30%) If they're wrong on the 60%, then all of their data is wrong (as I suspect it is).
I'm sorry Mike. But, you and you alone don't speak on behalf of mainstream Democrats.

Hillary For President 2008! *** Be Democratic VOTE Democratic! ***

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:27:15 GMT

don't listen to any of the spin on MSNBC regarding Hillary...Joe, Mika, Tucker, Chris, Tim, Chuck and the whole gang have been manipulating the outcome for weeks in favor of Obama...they are praying for an Obama win...Hillary will be fine either way...she will head to New Hampshire and work as hard as she can and then she will continue on with her national campaign and her supporters will be with her...this won't be a disaster and it won't be sure thing either way...she will just do what she does...keep on working and fighting the good fight...the Iowa caucuses is just the beginning...MSNBC has the most negative outlook on anything that relates to Hillary...her clap, her laugh, bla, bla, bla...don't let them get to you...Hillary is in this for the long haul and she is going to do great...she is strong and she is a winner...and the pundits just like to listen to themselves talk amongst themselves....they have been wrong about so much so many times...don't let them manipulate what you think...

First thoughts: Caucus Day

vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:29:13 GMT

One final prediction;

The winner will still need over TWO-THOUSAND more delegates...

Van

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J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:34:27 GMT

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Mitchell Feldman, Vestal, NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:37:31 GMT

Carrie: I have to say that I have never agreed with J Merle's rants, ever (in fact they border on lunacy and after reading them and LMAO, I often feel that a prescription for Haldol is in order - for him, not me).

However, I have to admit, that in one respect, I am his mirror image (as with Dean of Waterbury CT). Both say that he will vote Republican if Obama is the nominee. Similarly, for me, if Hillary is the Democratic nominee, I have to say that I could never bring myself to vote for her in the general election. I confess, I really have tried to formulate a way in which I could vote for her but I just can't; her position on the war, coupled with Bill's cynical view of politics (he is actually behind the smear tactics) preclude my support of her as a default Democratic candidate. But, I'm not as bad as the other two nuts; I would never vote Republican (that would go against the very grain of life itself). If Hillary is the nominee, I will either sit out the election or vote for a third party candidate. Simply put, Hillary doesn't represent the values I associate with the Democratic Party; sadly, she and Bill are damaged goods.

In any case, I am cautiously optimistic that I will not be faced with that prospect. I think tonight will be historical and this will be the start of something phenomenal for the U.S.A. Happy New Year.
Obama '08

First thoughts: Caucus Day

vanreuter, NY NY — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:59:53 GMT

WTF FR?

Way to serve the community on one of the bigger days on the schedule...

Van

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Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 22:17:12 GMT

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CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 22:20:08 GMT

"...The only conclusion I would be able to draw would be that that person is pouting and trying to make a statement. ..."
CitizenJ (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 3:03 PM)

Or perhaps using their Constitutionally Guaranteed Rights of; a) voting and b) free speech all in one fell swoop.
But that isn't going to matter anyway. Because Hillary is going to be the nominee.
Good for her, good for us, and good for the world!

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 4:34 PM)

Ok J. Merle. Since you apparently are more enlightened than the rest of us, please explain this to me:

You say you are a Democrat and you want Clinton to be the nominee. But, if she doesn't win the nomination and Obama does, you are going to vote for a Repubican - whose policy views are nothing like what yours are (or should be as a Democrat)? And all this not because of his policy views, but because you just don't like Obama?

Unless you have an epiphany and realize that Republicans are right and Democrats are wrong, what other conclusion are we supposed to come to if you vote Republican?

Since I doubt J. Merle will be able to answer this without calling me an Obama-rama-ding-dong, accusing me of being a whiner, telling me he has the constitutional right to do whatever he wants, and then failing to answer the original question, I am opening up this question to anyone who feels the same way J. Merle does (regardles of which candidate you support).

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Mark Thieme — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 22:28:38 GMT

With malice toward none;
with charity for all;
with firmness in the right,
as God gives us to see the right,
let us strive to finish the work we are in;
to bind up the nation’s wounds,
to care for him who shall have borne the battle,
and for his widow, and his orphan—
to do all which may achieve and cherish a just,
and a lasting peace,
among ourselves,
and with all nations.

Abraham Lincoln,
President of the United States

Second Inaugural Address
March 4, 1865

First thoughts: Caucus Day

Kathy SE PA — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 22:32:57 GMT

From the Biden website, Sorry Sierra:

Jan. 3: Biden for President Iowa State Director Danny O’Brien issued the following statement earlier this morning:

“There are no discussions underway and there will be no deal with any campaign.

“We believe Sen. Biden is strong enough on his own. Everyone knows that Sen. Biden is a popular second choice for the supporters of all the other campaigns.

“We remain confident that Sen. Biden will surprise folks this evening.”

First thoughts: Caucus Day

CitizenJ — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 22:33:51 GMT

Mitchell:

That I can understand. I just don't honestly believe that any true Democrat would vote for Romney or (God forbid) Huckabee, no matter who the Democratic nominee is.

When people make statement votes, i.e. voting for the opposite party in protest, they are basically signing away the country to the party with which they do not share any beliefs and values. That's just foolish to me.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 5:17 PM)

Bingo. Thank you, Carrie. I've been trying to explain this to J. Merle.

Have fun tonight at the caucus.

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Mike K, Denver — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 22:56:17 GMT

Again to CMS and others: Please fellow Clinton supporters: when Barack Nobody Media Hype gets the nomination and Chris Matthews is in tears (because he's so inspired) run on down to your local Registrar of Voters as I intend to do and reregister as a Republican and vote straight Republican this fall. It's like that line from The Thorn Birds, "I do love you but I love God more". Well I despise the Republicans but I hate Obama and his pals at the MSM more. If only let's say 15% of us switch any Repub can win. Do it!!!

Dean, Waterbury, CT (Sent Thursday, January 03, 2008 12:59 PM)
--------------------------
Seriously. You hate your party that much that you'd abandon them for at a minimum of 4 more years of the same s--t we've dealt with for the past 8. Do you really think, regardless of what they've said on the campaign trail, that a single Republican will change even the slightest bit off the course that George W Bush has set this nation on?

You are straight up CRAZY if you believe that change will occur with another Republican administration. I sincerely hope (and pray!) that a blizzard of epic proportions hits Connecticut the day of your state's primary and again the day of the General election so that you cannot even make it to your polling place to vote. If you're willing to stake this nation's future on more of the same, I don't think you deserve to vote.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

ace — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 23:57:08 GMT

for those of you that keep saying that if your candidate doesn't win the nomination you will jump to the other party, you are betraying your own candidate.

each candidate has said whoever wins the nomination of their party they are going to support them 100%. at least they are loyal to each other in defeat. they have honor and are class acts.

if you felt that way why didn't you register as an independent? there are a lot of us independents out here that once we decide we are backing someone we don't jump ship and it is your party that you are going to turn your back on. i find that an indication of one's true conviction or a lack of.

First thoughts: Caucus Day

HP Boston — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:37:18 GMT

Amy have you picked ONE Dem yet? I know it is hard to decide on one as they are all great. I guess we can't have Biden/Dodd now but I would have gladly had such a team. We can not lose we have great candidates and it is hard to choose. The rebukes have crumbs and we have the whole enchilada!