First thoughts: A new front-runner

Ron, TX — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:45:38 GMT

Where's Van?

Hey Van, what's the margin of error on a poll of 200,000 people?

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Chuck, NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:49:42 GMT

A new day has begun, and the fresh air is amazing. President Obama will re-invigorate this country and lead us to greater heights. I was astounded by his speech last night. I am on board now with him.

HRC, just back out graciously. Please!!!

First thoughts: A new front-runner

vanreuter, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:53:28 GMT

What a jerk, as proven by the fact that it's more important to call me out than comment on the actual election. Thanks for that.

Van

First thoughts: A new front-runner

vanreuter, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:54:04 GMT

Daily First Read Truth-Pak-

Trust no one...
The following sites devote as much time and space to Denis Kucinich and Joe Biden as they do to the big three. Whether you are a dem or republican, liberal, moderate or conservative, your candidate is represented equally at these sites. Forget about Big Media and the MSM, create your own narrative.

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Just about every poll from every pollster, averaged out, with a link to the source
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ Is THE source for political junkies, with links to every major political site on the right, left and center.

What the candidates actually have said about the issues.
http://www.ontheissues.org/default.htm This is a Great site! Every candidate on every issue!

How the candidates have voted and their LIberal/Conservative ratings
http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/sen/lib.htm?o1=lib_composite&o2=asc#vr Has the voting records for all members of congress, and their Liberal/Conservative ratings.

http://votesmart.org/index.htm Here's what they say at the site;
Thousands of candidates and elected officials. Who works for you? Who is seeking your vote? Project Vote Smart, a citizen's organization, has developed a Voter's Self-Defense System to provide you with the necessary tools to self-govern effectively: abundant, accurate, unbiased and relevant information. As a national library of factual information, Project Vote Smart covers your candidates and elected officials in five basic categories: biographical information, issue positions, voting records, campaign finances and interest group ratings.

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Van

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Lynette, NYC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:54:09 GMT

Hillary is too savvy to let Iowa stop her. Obama will ride the wave, but i still dont think he can sustain. Mc CAin, Giulani (?? who) are out. its always been about Barack and Hillary anyhow.... I think Huckabee will get the GOP nomination but i dont think it even matters. Wishy washy.... hello does anyone remember Michael Dukakis???? thats Huckabee's fate..

First thoughts: A new front-runner

vanreuter, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:54:46 GMT

Congratulations to Senator Obama and Governor Huckabee. Now it's on to New Hampshire and elections you don't need a guidebook to understand. I'll be leaving for New Hampshire today to put my mouth (and dialing finger) where my money is.
The results also vindicate Anne Setzer, the DMR pollster, who took a lot of heat, but whose numbers turned out to be right on. They also make ridiculous the smug instance of an, insider/decider, who would like you to believe that polls are meaningless unless they're private, secret ones.

Van

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Tim, CT — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:57:22 GMT

“McCain can't keep his media base buying into the comeback story if he doesn't produce a win”

Mark Murray… is this an unusual moment of candor? Are you part of his “media base?” Did you just acknowledge that you and your MSM colleagues are not objective and do not even hide your lack of objectivity well?

Go Ron Paul!

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Alexandra Acker, Washington, DC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 14:58:25 GMT

Another big winner -- young voters. Turnout among voters ages 18-29 increased to 13%, up from 4% in 2004. Young voters proved the conventional wisdom wrong and proved the turnout increases we saw in the 2004 general election and the 2006 mid-terms are a trend, not a blip.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

CitizenJ — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:01:08 GMT

Hillary is too savvy to let Iowa stop her. Obama will ride the wave, but i still dont think he can sustain.

Lynette, NYC (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 9:54 AM)

Here is Hillary's problem: Losing Iowa isn't devastating in and of itself, but the fact that 20% of the voters were Independent, and that Obama won most of those doesn't bode well for her. New Hampshire has a significant Independent bloc, and they are allowed to vote in either primary. It is likely that they will vote Democrat, and if last night was any indication, Obama leads among Independents.

If Obama should win New Hampshire, he would almost certainly win South Carolina. Then Clinton would have to deal with 3 losses and Obama's momentum would be huge.

Of course, we still have to see what happens in New Hampshire.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Ron, TX — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:02:52 GMT

You reap what you sow.

Go Obama! America may actually have a chance! Watch out New Hampshire!

First thoughts: A new front-runner

vanreuter, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:04:19 GMT

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Dante — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:05:02 GMT

Congratulations to Senator Obama!! The people want change and they spoke on it!! I hope that other Clinton and Edwards supporters will see that Obama is very much a viable candidate!!

First thoughts: A new front-runner

jerry/corpus christi texas — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:05:57 GMT

Van:

Time to take your polls and go home....
And take your girl with you.....

You know why Hillary Clinton got whipped last night?

1. Trying to equate "experience" with being a first lady is like me coaching football on my couch every Sunday afternoon and then going out and trying to get the head coaching job in Baltimore. You can only fool some of the people some of the time if you are seriously trying to convince people that watching your husband equals experience.

2. Instead of coming out with a brand new slogan every week, why not try and discuss the issues with the people, answer the hard questions, and stop trying to look like you won the prom queen title when the voting hasn't even started yet. Just because your name is "Clinton" doesn't mean everybody is going to kowtow down to you (except when it comes to a few names in here I could mention).

3. Stop using your husband. He goes out and talks about all the wonderful things he supposedly did in the 90's and says all the great ideas were his wife's. Well, if that is true, why did we need Bill Clinton? In that scenario, it makes Bill Clinton in the 90's look like Hillary's puppet and now it is 2008 and it looks like the roles have changed.

Hillary got smacked down last night....
If she's smart, she'll take a look at all that wronged her and try and fix it....

If not, she may as well report back to the Senate and try to make some more sweetheart deals for billionaires in New York State....

First thoughts: A new front-runner

David Anders Pharr ,Tx. — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:10:05 GMT

ONE THING FOR SURE, PEOPLE HAVENT FORGOT THE PEVERTED ACTS OF BILL CLINTON, AND HILLARY WRITING HER THESIS ON COMMUNISM, AND THE PARDON MONEY, AND I DONT THINK JENNIFER FLOWERS BOOK WHERE SHE STATED BILL TOLD HER THAT HILLARY HAD MORE WOMEN THAN HIM, HELPED HER. THANK GOD THAT MORALITY STILL COUNTS. YOU CANT RENT THE LINCOLN BEDROOM TO A DRUG DEALER. IM A HUCKABEE SUPPORTER THAT HELPED OBAMA.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

blester,texas — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:10:06 GMT

There's something amusing about you all (and First Read) treating the Huckabee win as a fluke, but the Obama win as real.....

Yes, let's nominate another spoiled wealthy white boy
just like bush.

doubt obama is white? who raised him?

First thoughts: A new front-runner

RH Oregon — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:10:13 GMT

You forgot to mention one of the biggest winners from last night.

CHUCK NORRIS !

Score one for the kick-ass white conservative that believes in God.

I have a question: When NORRIS endorsed Huckabee, did Mitt Romney even hear the spinning back kick coming? Thump!

Last night an intern asked Bill Clinton if he had "checked the closet before they did-it, for reporters?"
Bill said, "No, CHUCK NORRIS!"

And the biggest joke is Hillary left clutching her purse and a 3rd place trophy. After all it requires a village to raise a queen.....

First thoughts: A new front-runner

carol smith,folkston,ga. — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:12:31 GMT

too chunk todd- the statement that was made was to be races by the way the word "this" is that protanting to this: Barack Obama -be very caareful of the words that are use you may be in the spotlight and that not were you want to be.. The upcoming election will tell all -wait and see that obama will be the next president....

First thoughts: A new front-runner

M Wells San Diego — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:15:54 GMT

Inaccurate in the second graph of this story -- that if it had not been for Iowa's arcane caucus system, Obama would have won by a higher percentage. In fact, that is not true, as the 15% nonviability wiped out the totals for the lower-tier candidates.
If the Dems had a straw poll caucus the way the GOP does, the rankings would have remained the same, but Obama and Edwards percentage of votes would each have been lower than they were, while Richardson's (in particular) would have been much higher than it wound up being.
Of course, so long as MSNBC analysts (except for the very fair-minded Andrea Mitchell) persist in giggling like gleeful children over the Obama victory and pushing him as this marvelous change agent, we don't expect to see fair analysis here.
Let's face it folks, he gives a d*** fine speech, but when it comes to policy positions, you could write in his for Hillary's and Hillary's for his without blinking an eye, and when he talks about the urgency of now, it's his own urgency he has in mind.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Rufus Gibbons, DC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:16:14 GMT

In 1972 the first year the 18 year olds were allowed to vote the supported George McGovern who ran on the premise that if we just pull out of Viet Nam the North Vietnamese would return all our POWs. I along with many other democrats broke ranks and voted for Nixon. When the war was finally ended after the POWs were returned the Vietnamese SOLD us the dead bodies that they had buried. Obama is a lot smarter than McGovern but he has a hard row to hoe He may win South Carolina if ALL the blacks vote for him but will not carry one southern state in the general racial prejudice is still rampant in Dixie you will see a lot more bigotry such as the Playboy ad used against Harold Ford in Tennessee. No I will not bolt the party this time.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Nashville_fan — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:17:15 GMT

Did I mention I am thrilled with the results of Iowa? :)

I think that Senator Obama has been receiving front runner scrutiny from day one - and he has come out stronger for it. The cynical media has underestimated how hungry the American people are to be proud of our President again. We are tired of choosing the lesser of two evils - we want someone who can not only lead us, but inspire us to hold our heads up high again.

I'm excited about the future - it's not just about Obama - it's about America. No matter who ultimately wins, Barack Obama proves that nice guys can finish first! :)

First thoughts: A new front-runner

You Can't Ignore a Revolution — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:17:29 GMT

RON PAUL PULLS IN 10% OF IOWA'S REPUBLICAN VOTES.

Read all about it.

But not here...

???????????

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Joe Einloth — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:20:47 GMT

Jerry, for once I agree with most of what you wrote. The paramedics are firing up the paddles even as I write.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

middle age woman in usa — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:22:19 GMT

Hillary was the loser, before she started, she is too much of an ego-maniac to see it.
The country isn't behind her & has never been, now it is a documented fact.

She wouldn't even acknowledge her loss, she & her camp were too busy spinning, while the rest of the country made it clear that we see though her.

We proved that we know that she is a power broker, interested in retaining & growing her power in Wash. voters wiould be the last considered.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Nashville_fan — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:22:55 GMT

I thought Senator Clinton was quite gracious in her acceptance speech last night. I thought her speech was very good and I think that if she shakes of all of her handlers, and just stands up and looks the American people in the eye and makes her case (not let former President Clinton make it), she will indeed be a formidable candidate.

I most certainly want Senator Obama as the Democratic nominee, but I could support the Senator Clinton who spoke last night. Let's have a campaign, not smears and innuendo.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

CitizenJ — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:23:38 GMT

I would advise some of you (and you know who you are) to get all of your celebrating done quickly. This was the beginning, not the end, of the process. Will Huckabee and Obama now run the table? Unless there's a twenty or thirty point, 'bump", from Iowa (and that's not a bump, it's a mountain)the answer is no.

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 10:04 AM)

Van,

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm as happy about the turnout as I am about the Obama victory. It was impressive and good for the party. And I'm not really expecting Obama or Huckabee to run the table. But for Obama to win the nomination, he had to win Iowa. And not only did he win it, but he won it decisively. And that is what Hillary did NOT want.

If Obama wins the majority of the states before Feb. 5th, it will be an uphill climb for Clinton.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

linkedin — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:25:36 GMT

doubt obama is white? who raised him?

I dunno, . .. wolves?

First thoughts: A new front-runner

ki houston — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:26:08 GMT

Wow ,that speach . goosebumps ,cant even type right now.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Leye, Richmond, Va — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:26:54 GMT

I dont think HRC really did anything wrong. It just seems as if the country wanted something different - change rather than experience.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

HillaryisToast — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:27:29 GMT

Clinton to media: Don't ask me any questions, I will tell u what i want you to hear. do not ask anyone in my campaign questions either including mommy and chucky i mean chelsea, oh whatever her name is. Remember we still are the president, and forget about those documents i said would be released

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Rick,ky — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:28:37 GMT

Van, i agree, it was'nt right to call you out personally. However, there is No denying the Fact of the Importance of Iowa last night.Anyone that watched his Victory speech would have to be brain dead Not to be moved by it. Hillary to this point, has'nt been able to arrouse that in the Voter's.She really has an uphill climb. It is a Mountain, make No doubt about it.People in this country are sick & tired of the Status quo, & unless she find's a way to tap into that message, she's Done. Last night was an indication that the Personal Destruction of one's Character will not work. Better find a new way to get your message out, if you can.

Barack Obama, the next PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

ace — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:29:51 GMT

i want to say that just as hillary was gracious in defeat, van has shown good charachter with his congratulations and graciousness.

it isn't over yet. the clinton's are not going away that easy. their camapign was built for a marathon. she has serious issues before her now, but it ain't over.

the speech obama gave was monumental. expect him to get kneecapped a lot now that the candidates are out of iowa. let's see how he handles it. i think he will do just fine.

i think after new hampshire john edwards and richardson will be done. there was an article at the yahoo site that wrote an insider at the edwards campaign said if he drops out he will lend his suport to barack obama. it hasn't been verified. it maybe just spin. we will see soon.

it would be the best of both worlds for me as an independent if these to ended up on the same ticket as president and vice president. add biden as the secretary of state and richardson as u.n. ambassador.

it would be the perfect storm all the way to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. that foursome would be so powerful for the nation and internationally.

the anticipation of actual change is very exciting.

one note: a republican committe strategist said last night that they are very concerned about running against obama. their hope is to run against hillary because of what it would do for revving up the gop base and how it would bring independents back to them.
(that admision from the gop is powerful)

imagine the power nationwide if obama and john edwards were to team up. imagine the coalition that would be formed. just think about what that would do to the republicans. just imagine it.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Sierra, SF — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:30:18 GMT

Ron, TX: '...Where's Van?

Hey Van, what's the margin of error on a poll of 200,000 people?...'

Ron, be nice to van
We need him to track the Post-Iowa national polls for us ;-)

The race is still on
But, there is a new front runner, OBAMA

But, the door for Hillary is going to start closing..

What is Hillary's new message ?

An 'electable' candidate who loses Iowa (and maybe NH) ?
An 'experienced' candidate who can't run a competent campaign ?
(the 'inevitable' tag war ARROGANT... she seemed to be saying: 'It doesn't matter what the voters do, I'm gonna win, anyway')
'Foreign policy' when the NY Times blew that away, revealing that she had no security clearance and didn't participate in decision or even discussions

We have to hope that Obama doesn't make a major gaffe

If Obama wins NH, that leaves South Carolina as the next contested primary
New Hampshire will validate Obama in the eyes of African Americans and loosen up their support for Obama

Interestingly, the California absentee ballots haven't yet been been mailed out.
That probably cost Hillary 10% of voters who might have automatically voted for her.
Now, these absentee voters will be confronted with a new 'front runner'

Hillary was ahead in California by 25% in November
She was ahead by 14% in December (a steep decline)
What will the January poll look like ?
A competitive race ?

The key polls are the state level polls for the New Hampshire and South Carolina, now

Soon the key polls will be the state poll for the Feb Super Tuesday states.

Let's see how those polls start to change

Obama/Edwards '08
Honesty, Integrity, REAL Change

First thoughts: A new front-runner

David Anders Pharr ,Tx. — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:31:28 GMT

CHUCK NORRIS AND HIS WIFE(WHO IS A KNOCKOUT) HAD TEARS IN THEIR EYES DURING HUCKABEE'S SPEECH, AS DID I. ITS SO REFRESHING TO SEE MORALITY WIN, COMPARED TO THE SCANDALS AND PARDONS OF THE CLINTONS, AND THE LIES OF ROMMNEY. I BEG THE PEOPLE OF N H TO GIVEABUCKFORHUCK AND A VOTE.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Joe Einloth — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:35:23 GMT

Rufus, outside of Florida (maybe)the Dems won't win any southern state one way or the other. It won't matter, if they win Florida.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Pat Huntington NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:37:35 GMT

The overall big winner was not any particular candidate, but the Democratic Party as a whole. More than 200,000 of our party braved the cold Iowa night, and caucused, many for the first time - a record, beating out the repubican caucus goers by a margin of more than 2 to 1. This just shows that Democrats are galvanized ever more for this 2008 presidential election - more that the republicans. So, whoever our nominee is, the republicans better be scared because we've got the momentum of our party, in general, and I know, who ever it is, we'll be behind him or her 100%!

My only hope, is that if Obama is our nominee, he'll be able to win over enough Independents to win the general election. That's the key to victory in 2008. And it always has been. So, this is the real test for Hillary....in NH, where many Independents are expected to vote in the Dem. Primary there. So, whoever wins in NH, has done so with the help of Independents, and that person, therefore, truly deserves to be the Dem. nominee. Thankfully, I will be away from TVs this weekend in Albany, NY.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

ace — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:39:30 GMT

i think enough americans are beyond the race issue that a person of color or a woman could win. the south is not as cemented in it's views of bigotry as it was in the 70's, 80's and early 90's yes, you have some racists and some who are still non-progressive, but remember that the south's demographics mentally, educationally and because of migration has changed.

it is very possible to win in the south. like i said yesterday. i have family and friends in the south. they aren't the same philosophically as in previous decades. they want change and a working government too.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Brian, Houston TX — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:44:11 GMT

I am glad that the people in Iowa decided to buck the system and vote for change on both sides of the aisle. I think that Obama and Huckabee both will bring fresh air to the stale gridlock that is Washington.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

SE, California — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:45:57 GMT

Thanks to First Read for pointing out what few have been writing about:

Were it not for the caucus system, Obama's win would have been even more resounding. In the Des Moines caucus aired on CSpan (they picked this particular caucus because it's the most representative in Iowa), Obama beat Hillary by over 2 to 1 in terms of the numbers for him versus her. She's got to be happy that headline isn't showing up today.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Sierra, SF — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:46:17 GMT

Rufus Gibbons, DC:'... will not carry one southern state in the general racial prejudice is still rampant in Dixie you will see a lot more bigotry such as the Playboy ad used against Harold Ford in Tennessee. No I will not bolt the party this time....'

Rufus, you may be partially right.....
But, I remember a similar situation in LA back in 1973
Tom Bradley was running for mayor against a good liberal Jesse Unruh ('money is the mother's milk of politics')
I think there was a hunger among white Los Angeles to vote for a qualified black candidate
Bradley won, and brought redevelopment and the Olympics to LA

No, Obama may not win Southern states, but don't sell Southerners short
There is probably more decency in this country than we know....

And the Republicans would be STUPID to run ads like that in the general (even the Swift boaters)

That would turn decent people in other parts of the country to feel they HAD TO VOTE for Obama

Vote your hopes and dreams..... not your fears

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Kimberly Peacock, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:46:22 GMT

Edwards talks of change. Obama talks of change. Clinton talks of change. What are the changes we desire? We can all agree we want to live better, have more money, etc. What are our priorities? What does it mean to live better? It is true that the middle class is being marginalized but should we not look for the causes and address them in a rational manner? The affordability of advanced education along with retraining programs open to all should be one of our top priorities. Why?... because the lack thereof increases poverty and shrinks the middle class.
Venture capital needs to be focused not on just $30 Million deals and up, but on financing small businesses with seed capital all across the country. This can only happen if you have the right incentives for investors to take the risk. Hillary Rodham Clinton is the candidate that has addressed these issues and has worked on them for years. She established a tangible plan and has executed such in the private sector. Personally, I vote for freedom first, and then my pocketbook. Why?...because without freedom what do you have that is worth having? Without financial security you have no freedom. If you are voting on foreign policy then vote for Dodd as he is the most knowledgeable and capable in that arena. If you are concerned with the financial future of the country and your family, you owe it to dig into Clinton’s policy papers and into her personal history of accomplishment. In this day of 30 second sound bites it’s all about projecting an image. Packaging is nice but did you marry for beauty or did you marry for love?

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Rufus Gibbons, DC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:46:25 GMT

Back in Arkansas Huckabee often walks in the natural state. Would I lie.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

IowaDem, Ankeny, IA — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:47:08 GMT

Having participated in the Iowa caucuses last night, I came away with this impression. The Obama people were the people voting from the heart and looking for the feel good candidate. And why not? We've had to endure seven miserable years of the current administration. The other candidates supporters were the more pragmatic folks looking at the experience level, who could do the job, and were more focused on issues. At my caucus and numerous others I am told, Clinton was in 2nd place until Biden, Richardson, and Dodd supporters split. They tended to go more Edwards and that put him into 2nd. Unfortunately for Edwards, he will probably have to drop out of the race after the South Carolina primary as he didn't put any distance between himself and Clinton. His speech at the end of the night was desparate sounding and I think did nothing to improve his situation. The interesting part of this race from here on out is whether pragmatism and experience will win out over style and heart.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bill, NY, NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 15:48:25 GMT

Here we go again with a new message from the HRC campaign:

After last night's crushing defeat, Hillary unveils her new stump speech this morning in New Hampshire. What is it? I'm the candidate for:
1) change (Obama's message)
2) the middle class (Edwards' messsage)
3) young people (again, Obama's message)

New Hampshire, show America you're as smart and savvy as Iowa and that you're not fooled by "this week's" version of HRC.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Kathryn in Bham — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:03:43 GMT

I just want to say to anyone who thinks that Barack Obama would not win in the south based on his race - I am from Birmingham Alabama - yes, folks, the statues of waterhoses and dogs and the stories of little girls killed in a church bombing are forever in the hearts, minds and everyday lives of all of us here. And to let you know, even in this pivotal place in America's Civil Rights movement, we have an AWESOME mayor of Birmingham who is African-American. We also have a white christian governor who calls for prayer and recognizes their answers. Anyone who thinks that the south is a place of racial intollerance has not lived here. I am a white woman whose family is from this area, grew up outside of Atlanta and have been back in Birmingham for thirteen years and I am here to tell you that although the stigma is that the south is intollerant of racial equality, the reality is that we have progressed farther than we are given credit for.

Having said that, I will say that I do think that Barack Obama is a good man with excellent ideals and dreams for this country, however, I do not think it is his time. I don't agree with his plans of action on the issues most important to me. Not because of the color of his skin or even his family's heritage, but rather his personal decisions on what direction to take this country; in particular with regards to our military and the funding for his domestic approach.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bill, Yorktown, Virginia — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:10:46 GMT

Nobody is talking about the only numbers that count in this country, how many delegates to the convention did the candidates win. Popular vote means nothing (ask Al Gore)

Delegates won in Iowa last night

Obama - 16
Clinton - 15 (Yes she was 2d not 3rd)
Edwards - 14

First thoughts: A new front-runner

squintz, philly, pa — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:11:50 GMT

Oh, Chuck, good thing you have this blog, eh? They sure cut you off last night when you went into your doom and gloom act! Ha, I'll give you this, at least your not as pathetic as the rest...the MSM were FALLING OVER THEMSELVES about Obama. Chris Matthews believes he was "delivered to us" from Indonesia! Ha! Just don't oversell the case, fellas, that's all I ask.

Bullseye seemed like a rather tacky choice of words, by the way.

Woo! God Bless America! Go Obama!

First thoughts: A new front-runner

vanreuter, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:13:13 GMT

Delegates from Ia (total in parens);

Obama- 16(66)
Clinton-15(169)
Edwards-14(47)

Like I said, the winner still needs a couple more delegates for the nomination.

Years ago, I went to Monticello racetrack in New York to see the 1st Sugar Ray Leonard-Roberto Duran fight. I had never been to the, "trotters", before. I placed my bet and watched the horses pull the drivers in their little whatchamacallits around the track, and when they came towards the finish line (where we were seated) I jumped up and cheered at my horse's (and my paramutual)win, wondering why no one else was celebrating. One of my buddies said, disdainfully, "Uh, they go around AGAIN..."

Can anyone name a presidential candidate in the last say, FIFTY years, who won EVERY primary?

Van
(on to NH!)

First thoughts: A new front-runner

vanreuter, NY NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:15:47 GMT

So long as the song of many here is one of hate for their nemesis rather than positive praise for their champion, they are losers, no matter what their candidate does...

Van

First thoughts: A new front-runner

ace — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:20:11 GMT

kathryn, thank you. even though i don't agree with you somewhat, i want to say that t would be such a pleasure to have more people such as yourself on this site. the way you unbiasley describe the south but advocate your nonsupport of obama is refreshing.

it is good to see as huckabee said that we as americans should be able to have civil and respectable discourse o the issues. i can respect someone such as yourself. thank you again. your post was like fresh air mam.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

John B, Des Moines, IA — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:21:06 GMT

The common thread among Obama, Edwards, and even Huckabee to an extent was changing society in ways that are beneficial to the middle class. That's the theme that will take a Democrat to the White House. Edwards topped Clinton even though he was outspent 5 to 1 with that message. At my caucus a man gave a very moving and heartfelt speech that Democrats not walk away divided because that's the only thing that allowed a second Bush term. He probably received the most enthusiastic response of the entire evening. Democrats are energized. Huckabee's win as much as anything says that Evangelicals are profoundly dissatisfied with their available choices. That's a problem. As for the Ron Paul mild civil disturbance this also represents profound dissatisfaction among some rank and file Republicans, but the number of Americans who feel the government should provide virtually no services is very, very, very limited.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

ace — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:21:40 GMT

bill, you need to recheck your facts. do yourself that favor.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Terry, Disabled Vet, Des Moines, IA — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:23:07 GMT

What I Believe the first problem that any candidate will have to face before any real issues that are very important to me is this------the division within this country today---this my way or the highway attitude has brought us nothing but hatred for the other party--I am guilty of it too---Senator Obama has been the only candidate consistantly talking about this during his campaign to include his speech last night. Refreshing it may be, experience may not be, (hey look at what we have now, what experience did he bring)----the issue before any other must be the division within this country, remember "United we stand Divided we fall"? I truly believe that if we don't get this figured out and work together to solve our problems and address our issues then we will fall. We need to fix this division and it is extremely refreshing to hear someone addressing that most important issue facing us. I would love the military home and fixed, I would love to have health care for everyone, I would love to have a tax system that is equal to all, I would love to have a better education system, beter pay------but before all of that can be addressed and dealt with you have to have people willing to work with each other.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Kira, Utah — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:24:00 GMT

Was anybody else disgusted by portions of Huckabee and McCain's speeches last night? They both said that "negative campaigning doesn't work"... um, ok, except that Romney was down by 22 points only 2 weeks ago and last night was down by only 9. Oh and McCain (hypocrite) has released several incredibly negative ads in NH, exactly where he made this assenine comment. And then there's good old Huck- who said he was not going to release a negative ad, but spent his entire Sunday making it, and then showed it to the press on Monday, and then released it anyway to a few areas in Iowa yesterday. What a liar!

For those of you who keep saying that Romney has "flipped" or "lied", look a little closer at your own disingenuous candidate. Romney, by the way, congratulated Huckabee last night. Huckabee just bragged and gave not-so-suble comments about why Romney "lost". Not very "christian-like". Didn't Christ teach to love your enemies? Hmmm. Fake.

By the way, the media keeps saying McCain and Thompson tied. True by whole number percentages, but in actual numbers, Thompson beat McCain.

Congrats to Ron Paul for pulling in 10%. I don't like him and I don't think he stands a chance nationally, but good show anyway.

PS- I was happy with the democratic side. It's too bad Biden is out- he's a good guy. I'd like to see him as VP candidate with Obama. I think Edwards was exagerating his "strong second"- 8% behind Obama and only a few points (1%) in front of Hillary. Without the 2nd choice votes, Hillary would have come in second. I prefer Edwards to HRC, but he started to sound a little like Howard Dean in his speech...

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Al, KS — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:28:25 GMT

Ahh the polls...Seems like the DMR got it right mainly because they recognized a bigger pool of likely voters. My take is that it will take a whole new direction to accurately poll this race. The interest is so high, yhe desire for change is so great, that the standard polling institutions may have to rethink the whole "what is a likely voter" question. And that argument that many people, especially younger voters, don't have landlines seems to finally be a worthwile discussion. Maybe younger people will vote. At any rate, my faith in the standard polls is severely shaken, and I doubt that there is enough time to accurately poll New Hampshire with any new paramiters. So I guess we will just have to wait and see on Tuesday. How do you poll a movement?

First thoughts: A new front-runner

--NSMsnbc — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:31:46 GMT

*** The referendum on Bush: Do you think with this message and the New Year, President Bush might change? If he cares about a legacy, that's what he needs to do.

Thank you Iowa for voting for change. We are in a rut, what wonderful, positive news.

Excellent speech Sen. Obama. The amount he has grown and experienced on the campaign trail clearly shows. A very strong candidate.

"Clinton has been the leading candidate for over 52 long weeks, tonight Barack Obama is on top. Oh well, all good things come to an end," right?

[The Clinton campaign late last night was dismissing Obama’s victory as an eight-point win. "Judging the entire nominating process on eight percent of one state is a dubious exercise,"]
--Actually it was a 9-point over Clinton, I guess the DMR poll was again the most accurate. Going in, it was a toss-up, and if the Clinton team had won by 1 point (even half a point), then they would be heralding victory--rightfully so. B.H. Obama won by 9 points, and that's a lot--no margin of error. Higher than the high expectations (7 points) were. That's post-debate spin that I don't buy.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bill Sweetsir — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:32:41 GMT

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bob- Encino, CA — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:33:22 GMT

Chicken little is at it again. In august Edwards was the front runner in Iowa having been campaigning there for nearly two years. In January Obama's camp came to town a distant third. Withthe exception of a poll surge during the fall Hillary was not expected to win in Iowa. whay do we all have such short memories of real facts? Even when leading national polls she was not in front for several months.
I am not takign anyhting away from Obama's rise, but the big loser for the Democrats- even according to last weeks poll would have to be Edwards, who was touted as picking up momentum in the state he put all his effort. Sit back, relax, ther's alo t mor e politics to come.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Lynette, NYC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:34:36 GMT

so i did read it correctly, Hillary Clinton won the 2nd most delegates. The voting process is so archaic. And of course the popular vote really is just a bunch of numbers for TV.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bill, Yorktown, Virginia — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:34:43 GMT

Ace, you need to recheck yours, Hillary was 2nd in delegates awarded last night in iowa, check it out. Popular votes mean nothing in our elections, what counts is how many delegates did you receive.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Jane Smith, Concord, NH — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:34:49 GMT

Let us not forget....one state does not a president (nor a nominee) elect. We're working very hard here in NH to make sure Hillary wins...that's how I'm spending my time for the next four days. Come join me!

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Freeman Female, Dallas, TX — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:37:54 GMT

Congratulations to Barack Obama on his win. It was a great and blessed day.

He has shown to all the wide categories of independents, democrats and republicans that he brought in. He brought in women, youth and first time voters.

It is a blessing.

Predictions I have made have came true. Van, don't start saying people can't be nasty to you when you have been nasty to them. You have responded in kind and nasty to others with name calling. I have had so many great positive calls and we are so proud of the new change and new direction that the country is ready to go in. I also give so many great things to Ann Seltzer. SHE IS A TRUE WOMAN LEADER who had the FACTS, TRENDS AND RESEARCH that shows she knows more of what she is talking about than pundits like Yepsen, Rove, and others who believe in status quo.

It is a great day. The first state of Americans have spoken. New Hampshire is next. I think the winning of Obama will continue. It is a great day.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Steve, Parkton, Md — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:38:11 GMT

Another potential big winner - Mayor Bloomberg

First thoughts: A new front-runner

h.simmons — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:45:05 GMT

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Rufus Gibbons, DC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:53:16 GMT

Sierra and Einloth I never consider Florida a southern state as it is largely populated by snowbirds. As for the rest of the southern states they voted democrat from the Civil War until LBJ signed the civil rights bill out of hatred for Lincoln. When LBJ signed the civil rights bill he said "the solid south just moved over into the republican column" and he was correct. I mentioned before that I live in the Armed Forces Retirement Home and have friends from all over the country, just this morning I heard one of my southern friends express surprise that white people voted for Obama. I hope I am wrong but racial prejudice isn't solely a product of the south.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

--NSMsnbc — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:53:22 GMT

[Another potential big winner - Mayor Bloomberg
Steve, Parkton, Md]
--Steve, why? It has been my belief that either an Obama, Huckabee or Giuliai--based on loyalty--win would preclude a Bloomberg run. Is he a winner, because now he won't have to spend his large sum of money? I just kidding about that, but I am curious about your interesting statement.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bill Sweetsir — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:54:50 GMT

To those thinking this is the launch pad for Obama consider the past results of the DNC caucus:

2004 - Kerry
2000 - Gore
1996 - No Caucus
1992 - Harkin
1988 - Gephart
1984 - Mondale
1980 - Carter
1976 - Uncommitted (Carter was 2nd)
1972 - Uncommitted (Muskie was 2nd)

36 years, no one went on to become president that won in Iowa. Might give you 1996 because there was no caucus due to the fact Clinton was seeking a second term.

An Iowa win or loss means squat, it is just first.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Lynette, NYC — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 16:55:49 GMT

Of course today, the day after the 1st Caucus, all of the political junkies ( us) were going to be right on it.. It was inevitable. Those of us who follow every nuance know that on the dem side its between clinton and Obama. he will win a few and she will win a few. Its unlikley Edwards will win any...I hope that when the dust settles everyone will choose their candidates wisely and not jump on any bandwagons. Its a victory that in a swing state such as Iowa the independents chose to vote democrat... This is what we should focus on....

First thoughts: A new front-runner

CitizenJ — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:02:10 GMT

Glad you are all so excited about Obama winning. Didn't the DNC god Bill Clinton place 3rd in Iowa when he was running?

Obama is for change. When I am for change I look in the sofa cushions. Change for change sake is not what this country needs.

Bill Sweetsir (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:32 AM)

There is a huge difference in coming in 3rd in Iowa when you didn't even campaign there (which is what Bill Clinton did), and coming in 3rd in Iowa after you have campaigned there for a year (which is what Hillary Clinton did).

And about change not being what the country needs, it appears that the voters of Iowa disagree with you.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

CitizenJ — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:05:36 GMT

Young voters obviously aren't facing the issues that more mature voters are dealing with...

h.simmons (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:45 AM)

And may I ask how you come to that conclusion? It seems to me that the younger voters are inheriting this world as much as - if not more than - the "mature" voters you talk about (whatever that means).

First thoughts: A new front-runner

think about it. — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:08:05 GMT

I think the big story from last night isn't that a black man won in a white state, or that a unknown, unfunded 'hick' won against the republican establishment, but more that the democrats caucused in a percentage three times higher than in 2004, and how more democrats caucused than the Republicans by more than two to one last night. Not to mention all of the independents who decided to caucus with the Democrats, and the at least 3% to maybe 5% of Republicans who through their lot in with Democrats last night because they are so disgusted with their own party, and the fact that the much maligned "youth vote" whom everyone says never shows up, indeed showed up last night in record numbers. That is the real headline from last night, coupled with the evidence that Democratic Party nationwide is out fundraising the Republican party by a margin of more than two to one, exactly the opposite of all previous election cycles. This shows you where all the enthusiasm in this country is going. How sick people are of the Republican Party. And when you look at the fact that while Obama won last night, technically, in one state out of 50, the main point is that if you ask just about any Democrat who will vote in November, while they may have their preference, they would really not be terribly upset to see almost any one of the Democrats running in the White House (and some prominent republicans privately admit this as well), as opposed to all the Republicans put together cannot poll as well in their own party as none of the above.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Bill, California — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:09:06 GMT

H. Simmons,
That's right: start bashing the kids. One might suggest that the older generation has had their shot and unless I'm mistaken, things are in a mess. Why should we listen to the ones who have gotten us into this? "Experience" at screwing things up is not experience we need.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Kathryn in Bham — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 17:09:42 GMT

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Mark Thieme — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:27:13 GMT

Yes, Obama is a dreamer. Yet this dreamer has awakened this bright morning to a nation ready to listen. To me that is a miracle.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:28:13 GMT

Congrats to Obama. He reached out, and people responded. Whatever my personal preferences regarding Obama as a candidate, I am very happy to see so many people show up for what is a long and (in some precincts at least) chaotic process.

Again, job well done.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Carrie, Eastern Iowa — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:35:57 GMT

Glad you are all so excited about Obama winning. Didn't the DNC god Bill Clinton place 3rd in Iowa when he was running?

Bill Sweetsir (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:32 AM)

Clinton conceded Iowa, as did all of the other candidates in 1992, because Senator Harkin was seeking the nomination.

I feel like I have said this 100 times...

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Ron Jeffers, Arizona Independent — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:59:09 GMT

And so the most interesting presidential election ever is officially underway....and what a start. Two candidates from outside their party's mainstream roll to victory. This tells me that people of both parties have had it with politics as usual. A couple of observations:

- On the Democratic side, Obama's win in Iowa tells me that people just don't trust Hillary. With her "experience" edge, she should have won, all things being equal. But people seem to view her as not only untrustworthy, but also representing politics of the past. The whole "change" thing will never work for her.

- On the Republican side, Huckabee's win was a result of people's disdain for negative campaigning. Frankly, I don't see Huckabee as electable on a national level, since he is really viewed as a social conservative and not a fiscal one. When all is said and done, either McCain or Guiliani will be nominated.

I hope that Obama keeps his campaign above board and does not get in the gutter with Hillary. If he can do that, then he will likely be handed the keys to the White House in January.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

mimi, FL — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:15:29 GMT

AMEN to Kathryn in B'ham. Too many folks in the US have bought the racist redneck Southerner stereotype, courteously supplied by Hollywood and the national media. If the South is so incredibly racist, why on earth are the most popular and powerful cities for African Americans all located down here? And why do so many Southern cities have black mayors? Chiefs of police (Orlando's is black AND female)? I'm not saying we still don't have a long way to go, but the South is not the inbred backwater so many of you foolishly believe it to be.

Sierra and Einloth I never consider Florida a southern state as it is largely populated by snowbirds.
Rufus Gibbons, DC

Clearly, you haven't spent much time in Florida, which can be neatly divided into three regions: North Florida is about as red as it can get, from Pensacola to Jax and south to Gainesville. This is (with the exception of Tallahassee) mostly farm country and generally, pretty conservative both politically and morally. Central Florida, aka the "I-4 Corridor" from Daytona Beach, through Orlando, and down to Tampa, is purple. Depending on who you talk to, you've got everything from die-hard progressive to die-hard conservative, and they vote all over the map. South Florida is a strange split: more Republican on the Gulf Coast (Sarasota, after all, spawned Katherine Harris), more Dem on the Gold Coast--where you'd find most of your stereotypical snowbirds and retirees.

All that being said, the Democratic party was foolish to strip Florida's delegates. Florida's primary got moved up because its REPUBLICAN state legislature voted to do so. So now the fourth most populous state in the US has NO VOICE at the Democratic convention. Way to fall for it, idjits.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Mike K, Denver — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:47:13 GMT

Hillary has a serious problem: In Iowa, she began by railing her "experience matters" mantra into the ground. When that didn't get her anywhere and people started paying attention to Obama's "we need a new direction--a change in the way Washington does business" talk, she changed her tune to be "I am most capable from day 1 to bring change to Washington." That didn't stick because Obama beat her to it. What did Hillary do? She went back to stumping about her experience as First Lady and as a Senator. Still didn't work based on last night's results.

Now that the numbers have been broken down to show that she didn't win with women, didn't win with people under 45, and only won the 60+ crowd, she and Mark Penn are planning their next strategy on how to get people to flock back to her.

Barack Obama and even John Edwards did it the same way. They stuck to their original message and it worked for them. They never waivered. They never became unhinged. They stayed on point and it served both, although Obama better, well.

You can't run a campaign based on what some poll says. You can't run a campaign based on which way the wind is blowing. You run a campaign with a base message that people can attach themselves to. Both Obama and Edwards have done this with success. Success that I believe will continue in New Hampshire early next week and even beyond since Hillary will likely be looking for yet another message a week from now.

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Mitchell Feldman, Vestal, NY — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 20:47:22 GMT

Kathryn in Bham: I too have lived in the south (in the past), for 20 years and I think that stereotypes about racial attitudes are just plain foolish. People everywhere hunger for authentic leadership and Barack can provide this.

I think that Barack Obama could win in the south, with a coalition of voters (young, black, urban professionals, women...oh heck, thinking people from all walks of life - just like anywhere else). The difference that a candidate like Barack Obama could make, is that the excitement he engenders would cause a surge in voter turn-out (not unlike what we saw in Iowa last night) and this enthusiasm could provide the model for a winning candidacy.

I think that the inspirational candidacy of Barack Obama could provide an inroad to victory in the south that has yet to be appreciated. Kathryn, I urge you to take another look at this unique candidate who truly represents the spirit of what makes this nation great. He really could blur the line between red states and blue states and truly be a president for all of the United States. I look forward to it.
Obama '08

First thoughts: A new front-runner

Mike K, Denver — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 21:44:11 GMT

Young voters obviously aren't facing the issues that more mature voters are dealing with; therefore Obama/Oprah appeals to them....let's not get so hasty in our predictions. Things will change after the OBama/Oprah Barrage fizzles out. Then the real candidates will be heard. Yes, change is needed, but Obama is not the answer. Bush certainly wasn't the answer. I pity the new president being saddled with
Bush's mistakes....but I will pray for her!

h.simmons (Sent Friday, January 04, 2008 11:45 AM)

----------

Young people are tired of the old people using the same old rhetoric, the same old ideals, and the same old sabre-rattling to accomplish jack-s**t. People of Bush's, Cheney's, even Clinton's generation have f--ked the place up so much and made things so bad for those of us coming of age today and tomorrow that we're ready to take charge and throw the bums out. Iowans said "NO" to the continued "everyone but the people shall lead" approach to Washington politics. We're tired of the lobbyists, the special interests, the corporations, and everyone else f--king us all in the back end where we have $100 barrels of oil, $3/gallon gas, we can't afford to eat, we can't afford to go to college, we can't afford to heat our homes, hell we can't afford the home themselves! Clinton and every Republican candidate (Huckabee sounds nice, but he just has this snake oil salesman feel to him) wants to keep the status quo. And why not? They and their friends have made millions off the backs of hard working Americans like those that voted with their hearts and souls last night in Iowa and have finally said "ENOUGH!" I think this will continue. It must continue or America will continue down this slope we're presently on.