Exit poll madness

brett — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:10:58 GMT

Thank you for stating the candid truth

Exit poll madness

brett — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:10:58 GMT

Thank you for stating the candid truth

Exit poll madness

brett — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:14:03 GMT

that is the tortured logic of the clinton argument. It damns her chances as much his, for apparently she is struggling with the young, educated whites, and african-americans, and by her reasoning will be unable to capture these demographic groups in the general election.

Exit poll madness

patty,sd,ca — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:15:00 GMT

Obama is not and will never be ready to be president of the USA.

Exit poll madness

JohnnyU, WA State — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:15:19 GMT

What struck me in the PA exit polls was how many people don't believe Hillary is honest or trustworthy, feel that she unfairly attacked Obama and YET...THEY VOTED FOR HER...IDIOTS!!! You gave us the liar George W Bush for 8 years... now you're intent on having another liar in the WhiteHouse. IDIOTS.

Exit poll madness

Pat, Boston, MA — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:15:49 GMT

Mark, thank you.

Why I wonder are the pundits on tv (and the Clintons) consistently saying that Barack Obama can't win PA or any of the other blue states that she won? It just doesn't make sense to have that argument.

Exit poll madness

American Voter — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:17:24 GMT

Sounds like the uneducated, stupid & old are for the low rent Clinton's and everyone else is for Obama?

Exit poll madness

RollaMO — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:18:07 GMT

Thank you for stating the obvious truth.

Exit poll madness

fortuna, Houston, TX — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:18:08 GMT

Mark, what the heck are you doing? Do your bosses know that you're using reason and logic? I thought that was prohibited in the MSM! Seriously, thank you for stating what should be obvious to any thinking person.

Exit poll madness

Billy, Normal, IL — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:18:36 GMT

I've been waiting for this argument. Remember for the last half-a-dozen primaries before Huckabee got out, the pundits were asking "Why can't McCain close the deal?"

Exit poll madness

Lisa, IA — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:18:49 GMT

I think polls have their place, but it is comparing apples and oranges to think that these polls mean very much in predicting results in the general election in Nov. Just because lower income, white voters trend towards Hillary in the primaries certainly doesn't mean that they won't vote for Obama if he is the dem. nominee in the fall. Of course there will be some that will not vote for him under any circumstances, just as there are some that would never vote for her either, but for the most part, with the economy in it's current state of crisis most dems of all demographics are going to vote for the Democrat in November.

Exit poll madness

Be Fair, MI — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:19:05 GMT

What a balanced article. But this type of coverage is few and far between because the media wants the "working class" voters to continue to believe they rule the country. Why to you think the bitter comments got so much play?

Also...Look how the media has adopted the Clinton/McCain characterization of Obama as "elitist". His coolness is now seen as "aloofness, detached"...All in an attempt to make him unattractive. He is a charismatic, brilliant politician with flaws like the rest of the world.

Exit poll madness

Dave, NY, NY — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:19:10 GMT

You know whats Hillaryous? That Clinton and Obama have virtually no difference between them on most most policy issues. So the idea that those who support Hillary won't support Barack in the general connotes that its for some other reason than policy. Now why would someone who agrees with his policy positions vote for someone else who holds the opposite policy positions? Is the "white working class voter" code for the "won't vote for the black guy voter"? Just a thought.

Exit poll madness

Sick of corruption, sick of the Clintons — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:19:19 GMT

Someone should have done an exit poll asking voters if they know that one of the Democratic candidates for President is facing a campaign fraud lawsuit. I'll bet the majority of those who know about that, voted for Obama.

Obama in 2008. Integrity matters and the Clintons have none. Want to make Hillary sweat? Just walk up to her and say the name "Peter Paul".

Exit poll madness

My Vote Goes To Senator Barack Obama — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:19:44 GMT

As I was reading the comments on the "working class" thread, it occurred to me that what Barack Obama needs to stress to the media and the voters is that just because he doesn't talk or behave like them (i.e. downing shots of whiskey) it doesn't mean he's not campaigning for them.

From all I have heard in his speeches, he knows with all his heart that this election is about the families in this country who are having a rough time of it. The commentators don't talk about this.

He had enough respect for the young men and women of this country to speak up against the invasion of Iraq. The commentators don't talk about this.

Why should he have to bowl or anything else in order to connect? Because the commentators like it?

I don't know about anyone else, but I prefer my presidents to be smart and behave in a dignified manner.

And have sound judgment when it comes to wars. He knows full well it is our children who will be serving in the military.

Elitist? Think again. Try intelligent, reserved, respectful.

Just the kind of President we need right about now.

Exit poll madness

Jay, The Batcave — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:19:56 GMT

Yeah, good call Mark Murray. Whatever you're drinking pass it over to Scarborough for a hit. He could use it.

Peace.

Exit poll madness

Real Amerians — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:20:00 GMT

Hello Super-delagates:

I am a real American. I work every day for my living. I have a mortgage, and a jeep. I am not rich, but I work hard every-day except Sunday when I spend time with my Family. In addition, every day, I try to figure where I can squeeze a little more from my budget to help my oldest son, who is in college. By the way, my oldest son and I have both been in the military, so we know what it means to sacrifice. And we both morn the loss of dear friends and comrades. We know there value is far above the price of oil, which sometimes makes us bitter. My son went to Iraq, my sister invaded Iraq, I have a brother-in-law who has been to Iraq twice, and he is in the reserves. I have held a secret security clearance. I say all of this because I want people to know how I believe real Americans feel.

Hillary must win this election fairly, and on her own merits—not others. Furthermore, if any back-room, rule-breaking, after-fact-deals, occur(like Hillary winning the popular vote without counting Obama’s caucus votes, or she take all the votes from Florida and Michigan—rule breaking—then I can promise that we Americans will not take it sitting down. Our country could face utter civil disobedience. Thomas Jefferson’s words will take root and grow. Real Americans will not let the extremely wealthy people who control the media (all the media,) control us. Real Americans can see through the smoke clouds and mirrors. Real Americans will demand that this be a fair election, and that the super delegates had better wake up and realize that there is more at stake her than just picking a president! America’s honor is on the line. We, Real Americans-- democratic, republican, and independent, and those without affiliation—will not let you dishonor our fallen soldiers, the hard working people of America, and our brothers and sisters, who have sacrificed so much—with your dishonesty!

Hillary, right now, you are representing all women! Stop acting like a spoiled idiot. You do not need to twist and spin every thing about this election. Even if you lose—lose with some dignity, lose with an ounce of self-respect, and lose with your honor in tact! To say that you are leading the popular vote—is a lie, and it is cheating. Stop your--self-torture. Have some class and be the “woman” we all know you are.

Obama—I liked you better when you were giving speeches. At least you spoke from your heart. People respect that! What they do not respect is negative, tit-for-tat, adds. If you return to your honor, you will see what I say is true.

And finally, this lying about I won the states that matter most is a crock. Only the very ignorant and stupid would believe such an argument, Hillary. Running against another democrat splits the democratic vote in half. To say Obama would not win because you beat him in this state or that is insane, stupid, and totally not true! You dishonor yourself Hillary and the democratic process. Real Americans want our honor, your honor, our countries honor to be restored! Do not continue to dishonor America by twisting the truth. You do your self no credit.

Lastly, I hope our politicians can re--think what it means to represent America.

Exit poll madness

Natalie — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:20:16 GMT

Exit poll madness

PAt Huntington NY — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:20:27 GMT

McCain will surely get the Depends wearing vote!

Exit poll madness

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:20:41 GMT

The difference is that the Clinton spin machine - which for some reason is taken seriously by the media outlets it floods with this stuff - isn't making these unelectability arguments about McCain.

If media folks had a little more sense, they would have started ignoring the Clinton releases and conference call arguments a long time ago.

Exit poll madness

j fl — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:20:47 GMT

Both Hillary and Obama are neck in neck with the independent voters. You got to give her more credit when credit is due. In general, women have to give
125% to a mans 40%. This is what she has been up against from the beginning.

Exit poll madness

BL, Cincinnati OH — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:21:39 GMT

It doesn't matter what group goes for who this year. McCain is pushing a war that 70% of the people want ended. McCain is pushing for a hands off approach to this economy. McCain is pushing for tax cuts for corporations, businesses, and the wealthy. McCain is pushing to cut tons of spending on direly needed projects like education and infrastructure. Economists have said that McCain's plans will drive up the national debt by $3 trillion, and that's not counting a dime of the costs for the war.

This country can not afford John McCain, no matter how good of a person he is and what he's done in service of this country. He follows the policies of Reagan, who drove our national debt to record levels.

Exit poll madness

Amy B Portland, ME — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:23:19 GMT

I checked the byline after I read this, and sure enough, its Mark Murray, one of the few voices of reason left in the media circus. (Still boycotting ABC News here!) Thank you Mark.

Exit poll madness

Ed S — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:24:22 GMT

I disagree that Supers are pouring over these numbers. They pretty much know who they are going to go with, they just do not want to out of fear from their constituents. Also, they are keenly aware of the argument your posts makes.

A good site is: mrsuper.org

This is a blog by a super and provides keen insight into what is going on behind the scenes...which isn't much incidently.

Exit poll madness

Women FOR Obama '08 — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:25:09 GMT

Finally a fair and unbiased story by the media. Thank you Mark Murray.

Exit poll madness

Gary - Chicago — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:26:55 GMT

Dear Geoff:

As a Clinton contributor I was invited by Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson to email my thoughts to the capmpaign...some kind of outreach program. Here is what I wrote:

Drop out. That would be my advice. Your team put up a good fight but it's over. You're actually making a lot of us very tired.

Have your candidate make her speech on Tuesday evening thanking the wonderful people of PA - and the entire country - and then have her throw her support to Senator Obama for unity's, the Party's and America's sake. She could go out as a winner on a high note.

This would instantly restore her greatly diminished credibility and get back the support she has lost within the party and the Senate. Once this is all over - and Obama is the nominee - she will not be greatly comforted by the remaining support of white women over 55 (I'm 57), and working class "Reagan/McCain Dems. She will have lost the base, the party elite and her peers in the Senate if she keeps pushing this.

Once she endorses Obama she can then become a true leader in the Senate and help President Obama to shape and pass legislation. Eventually she can replace Harry Reid. Would this not be good for you and Howard going forward as well?

Otherwise, she will walk away from this, still the loser, but with culpability (deserved or not) for damaging what had been shaping up as a transcendent Democratic year. I cannot imagine why she does not wish to be a positive part of this opportunity, nor can I imagine that she - and you - do not now see that she is not the one to bring this agenda home.

It's too late for her to become the nominee in any real world scenario other than one which would be so bitterly divisive that's the thought alone is horrific. Pick the right time and make a rousing endorsement speech on Tuesday for Senator Obama. Those negatives will get cut in half, Bill's legacy will be restored and her (and your) successful future will be assured.

I hope you've taken this advice in the spirit in which it was intended...as an honest and caring response to your invitation.

Gary

Exit poll madness

Frank, Missouri — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:28:23 GMT

Mark Murry ... a few lines of sanity !

Clinton was the big, big favorite in PA - and she won by just 9%. The truth is, if Obama would win in NC with 'just' 9%, the press would not celebrate THAT as a victory.

The truth is, Obama has to live up to a higher standard in campaigning and results. Why ? Because we rather make the same mistake again before we risk to follow a new line of thinking. We are not the Pioneers anymore, we are overweight couch potatoes with remote controls and an attention span of a TV commercial.

We can change. Question is .. do we want to?

Exit poll madness

Sam, Muncie, Ind. — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:28:33 GMT

Thanks for finally making some sense.

Exit poll madness

Nashville_fan — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:29:38 GMT

Paralysis by analysis!

Not to mention that I have no idea how accurate these exit polls are, since no one has ever polled me in the 20+ years that I have been a voter - how about some information on how these polls are conducted?

Exit poll madness

Bonnie — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:30:00 GMT

The un-pleged super delegates are waiting to see which way the wind blows. But now the wind has become a raging tornado. Studying, analyzing and second guessing can go too far. It becomes wishy washy and paralyzing. It's time to endorse the guy who has unbeatable numbers. Get some fibre in your spines for heaven's sake. Let's all push to get Obama in the white house.

Exit poll madness

Willy, Raleigh, NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:33:22 GMT

Are white working class voters more interested in over a month of listening to the media discuss cranky statements from a black pastor rather than a well documented lawsuit (Paul V Clinton)that alledges campaign finance fraud on the part of the Clintons?

Exit poll madness

BIGOLDTEXAN — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:33:48 GMT

THE TURN OUT OF NEW VOTER FOR THE DEMOCRATS IS GREAT!
With that said:
WE WANT SOMETHING NEW AND NOT RUINED BY WASHINGTON

I really don`t know why the media insist that if HRC steals the nomination that Obama`s supportes will vote for her and that if Obmam WINS the nomination that HRC supportes will not vote for him .

Well if HRC some how steals this from Obama, the turn out of the democratic voters that the party are getting now will be far less for the gerenarl election as 90% of the obama supporters will not even show up to vote, black or white. Thus we have another republican in the white house.

NONE OF US WANTS TO SEE THE Clintons BACK IN THE WHITE HOUSE. DON`T THEY GET IT YET!!

So you see while HRC thinks that she has Obama supporters for the general election she really doesn`t.
I for one will not be voting if HRC steals this by cheating and LYING.

So says a lot of the people I have conversed with and general everyday talk. These people Are not friends of mine nor do I see them on a daily basis.
These are people that I run into with my everyday chores such as going to stores, cleaners, parks with the kids & to fill my gas tank.
A lot of these people believe that she has already ruin the party chances this fall and I think that they are right, HRC has every right to keep running but the way it`s looking now it is not good for the party.

NONE OF US WANTS TO SEE THE Clintons BACK IN THE WHITE HOUSE. DON`T THEY GET IT YET!!

GO OBAMA '08

Exit poll madness

Mark, Milwaukee — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:34:03 GMT

Wag the dog. The media had just been dancing to the Clinton's beat. This is just a phase. This too shall pass.

Facts are very stubborn things!

Numbers are very stubborn things!

e pluribus unum! Out of the many spins, slicing and dicing, analysis paralysis the truth will be one and it is that the Democratic Primary METRICS have spoken.

Exit poll madness

Pete - Albany, NY — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:34:07 GMT

Let me help Patty in SD, CA out here...

...ahem...

"I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR RACIST LIAR OBAMA!"

But, seriously, folks, the writing is on the wall.

John McCain sat with a straight face and looked into a camera and said that Americans are better off now than they were 8 years ago.

If it's Obama vs. McCain will Clinton supporters *REALLY* vote for McCain when he promises more of the same?

...100 years in Iraq.

...borrowing money from China hand-over-fist to pay for it.

...giving tax cuts to the rich.

...all the while driving down the value of the dollar to record lows.

...leading to higher prices for oil, gasoline, food.

...bailing out banks who gave out bad mortgages.

...but homeowners facing foreclosure are on their own.

Exit poll madness

Geoff H, Tulsa, OK — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:35:55 GMT

Just a hypothetical thought as to why Hillary is still in the race.

Supposing that while Hillary was the inevitable candidate, the Clintons made all kinds of promises for favors, help, promoting legislation for lets say; funds, income, campaigns, libraries and more.

Now she HAS to win the primary otherwise all those benefactors might make life VERY uncomfortable for her, 'lil Billy and darling Chelsea and maybe even want their money back due to defaulting on those aforementioned promises.

As I said, just a thought!!!

Exit poll madness

The Grand Panjandrum, New Mexico — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:36:13 GMT

One might extrapolate GE results from Primary contests is at best dubious. While it may give us hints of what is to come in other primary contests it is still necessary to do a post mortem with the data to see if any large shift is being made. I suspect most of these demographics are pretty well entrenched for the remainder of this primary season but will change dramatically after the nomination is settled.

Exit poll madness

Waiting for Obama, NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:36:17 GMT

Thank you, Mark. We all realize that most of the pundits at MSNBC are just doing their job by keeping the flames of spin fanned, but it is refreshing to have someone actually speak to us like adults now and then!
BTW, good one, Jay, Batcave! Both Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchanan need to drag themselves into the 21st century.

Exit poll madness

colene, new york, new york — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:38:08 GMT

Hey Dave, NY, NY

Are you talking about patty,sd,ca by chance?

Exit poll madness

Brendan D, Niles, IL — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:38:09 GMT

You all are crazy if you think Obama can't court evangelical Christians. He speaks the language of true believers, and despite his support for civil unions and affirmation of "safe, legal, and rare" abortions, they agree with him on a lot of things.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Evangelicals are guided by theology, not party.

Exit poll madness

Lisa, New Britain, CT CT for Obama — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:38:29 GMT

Can ya send this to Team Clinton (first) and then all the superdelegates (second)...thanks and DUH!! :)

Exit poll madness

j fl — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:38:59 GMT

How about Obama wait his turn like he should have in the first place. He alone has destroyed the democratic party. He is inexperienced in most areas and is showing to be a racist. Not someone who we should PUSH into the White House. I think not.

Exit poll madness

lori Chicago — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:39:26 GMT

Thank you Mark. We are all going to play a part in this election. This election is not like any other in history. It is frustrating that it keeps getting compared to past elections. If it was anything like other elections wouldn't there be 3 white men running for the highest office. Who really can predict the general election. Not this time.

Exit poll madness

Ryan McMahon — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:39:27 GMT

Well I believe everyone talks about the white blue collar votes, because historically they are considered swing voters. Obama has been getting the liberal democrats which historically will vote democrat no matter who the nominee is. Clinton has received the majority of her votes from conservative and moderate democrats who often vote for a Republican. This is the reason George Bush was elected. Clinton's primary base who often say they will not vote for Obama in the general are exactly what the swing states (PA, OH, FL) consist of therefore making her the better candidate for the general, because no one knows how many states will turn from red to blue in the general. We know that with the swing states you can carry the general election. It would be harder to make many smaller red states turn blue instead of the normal 3 swing states that are known for being the cause of a democrat losing.
Natalie (Sent Thursday, April 24, 2008 3:20 PM)

Natalie, I'm afraid you're wrong. Clinton has won the bulk of closed primaries (those open only to Democrats). On the other hand, Obama has won the bulk of open primaries (those open to independents as well).

If one of the 2 is in the game only because of the "liberal democrats which historically will vote democrat no matter who the nominee is" that candidate is Clinton. This is born out in polls pitting Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain (Obama does better in almost every state, even ones Clinton won in the primary).

The voters in the primary will eventually "come home" to the Democratic party but Hillary has not show the ability to sway independents or moderate Republicans like Obama has.

(not that it matters, she can't catch him at this point)

Exit poll madness

clairton, pa. — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:40:05 GMT

When will we get some exit polling on McCain's weaknesses demographically?

Let's see: Veterans whom he's voted against with regard to their benefits, American's against the war, African American's whom he has offended for decades, the lower, and the middle classes, (with his voting for tax breaks for the rich, which means him, and his wife), women, as well as, men who despise spousal abuse, (which also occurs in public in John's case), and everybody concerned about the economy. Johnny ain't lookin too splouw, (terrific), if you ask me. Why did'nt you ask me??????

Some say McCain is a war hero. I don't buy that because he does not show repect for the service, and sacrifice of other veterans.

Exit poll madness

Juanita, Ocala — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:41:36 GMT

We don't need any leftwing extremist in the White House. We've had a rightwing nutcase there already. No reason to fly too far the other way. Obama needs to go away!

Exit poll madness

Carol, Long Valley NJ — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:42:07 GMT

The only numbers that count

Obama leads by 134 delegates overall: 1,731-1,597.
He also leads by 157 in the pledged count: 1,491-1,334.

Anything else is just mental gymnastics.

Vote with your head, vote for the economy, vote for jobs.

Vote Democratic 2008 -- don't let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again.

Exit poll madness

Barbara C, - Fort Lauderdale, FL — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:42:11 GMT

So Mr. Murray, according to these exit polls, as an older white woman in Florida, who voted for Obama, I should start packing my things tonight and move to Pennsylvania so I can meet and date an older, white male who voted for Hillary. That should work out well...

Exit poll madness

Lisa, New Britain, CT CT for Obama — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:43:47 GMT

Wow...Real Americans (above)...what a great post!!!

Obama for our best future 08

Exit poll madness

colene, new york, new york — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:44:42 GMT

Natalie,

What you're overlooking is that if Hillary were to manage to somehow steal this election, she can count on Obama's base even less than he could count on her base because of her conniving and her thievery - leaving us with McCain as pres. Is that what you really want???
Think about it. You really think the new voters he's brought in will just switch to her when some of them have never even been inspired enough to vote before?

Exit poll madness

pam, hershey, pa — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:45:48 GMT

I live in PA both in Dauphine County and Philadelphia County, And one thing for sure, two things for certain. We will come together just as the will and will not have a third Bush Term...Just yesterday...
McCain Votes Against Equal Pay.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Now I ask why is MSM still allowing a LIE to flown around without action, Hillary is not winning, and people wonder why people don't vote. Hillary Please Stop.

Exit poll madness

DWB — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:46:13 GMT

The media needs to shut up and let the process work without their help. It is them that are making this process ugly.

Exit poll madness

Independent in TN — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:50:19 GMT

Nice work . . . this country could use more non-spun, non-hysterical reporting like this

Thanks!!!

Exit poll madness

Erika, SF, CA — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:52:22 GMT

The difference is that Huckabee and McCain kept their campaign respectful, ALL Republicans value military service, and all Republicans value McCain at least for his service and experience in the Senate. He was able to unite the party around their shared plaform of the War in Iraq based on their respect for him in this area, if not his faith.

A lot of Hillary supporters don't respect Barack, and a lot of Barack supporters don't respect Hillary. Without universal respect, I DO think unification becomes a much greater challenge.

Exit poll madness

colene, new york, new york — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:52:24 GMT

hey j fl. . .

what if lincoln, the other junior senator from illinois had 'waited his turn'???

disaster, that's what.

Exit poll madness

Ted, Jackson MI — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:56:26 GMT

J in FL,

Where in the world do you get the Facts that Clinton runs even with Obama in the independant crowd. That is a blatent lie.

Exit poll madness

Jack — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:57:31 GMT

The statement from the cable media and print publications that are stating that the exit polls from Pennsylvania state the Barrack Obama has as good of a chance as Hillary Clinton to defeat John McCain in the Fall is false. Hillary has much more loyal voters. The exit polls in Pennsylvania State that 83% of Obama voters will vote for Clinton in the Fall election if she was the nominee. However, only 57% of Clinton voters stated they would vote for Obama in the fall. What's not clear with this picture? If the Republican nominee was the typical nominee I would agree that Democrats would come home in the Fall. John McCain is not a typical Republican. He is a candidate with a lot of crossover appeal. He can grab his share of the so called Reagan Democrats and blue collar workers. Obama has a much less chance of retaining these voters. Even the media and papers are trying to spin this in Obama's favor, which is not their job. Leave that up to the campaigns and give us the objective news, PLEASE!

Exit poll madness

infogiant, austin, tx — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:58:46 GMT

Question is, why has it taken two months to state this reality that people have been posting below your "reports" on a daily basis. I know EVERY person reading the THREE of you, can't be the only ones capable of critical reasoning.

I do appreciate that the fact was finally written thought.

http://infogiant.wordpress.com/

Exit poll madness

The Real Truth — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 19:59:02 GMT

You can slice and dice all you want the fact remains at the start of the contest if was about elected delegates and it still is. The supers will not over turn the elected delegates at the convetion. Simple truth is Obama has won he has the most delegates and the supers are not going to override that no matter how much the Clinton supports want them to. Florida and Michigan will be seated but the undecided in Michigan will be awarded to Obama. Edwards people will move that way too on John's request, cause he really want that A.G. spot. So spin all you want this spiders web is already done, the Political Pondifs are just tring to drag it out cause it is now their full employment act of 2008. By the way look for Obama to pick a nice solid white vice presidental candidate like Biden or Webb to help with the middle class white male vote. Democratic party memebers that are female might not be happy but still I can not see them moving to McCain and stacking the supreme court even more against Roe vs Wade during the next 4 yrs.

Exit poll madness

Patty-is-annoying — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:00:17 GMT

"Obama is not and will never be ready to be president of the USA.
patty,sd,ca (Sent Thursday, April 24, 2008 3:15 PM)"

BACK THIS UP WITH SOME PROOF or SHUT UP!

Exit poll madness

Buzz, Washington, DC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:09:06 GMT

THANK you. FINALLY, we get the OTHER side of the argument.

Exit poll madness

Lats Goldberg — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:10:02 GMT

McCain will surely get the Depends wearing vote!
PAt Huntington NY

Voting for McCain are you PAt?

Exit poll madness

jAYjAY — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:10:06 GMT

Hillary's margin of victory in PA. is 9.3 and rounded correctly it goes down to 9 she did not win by double digits.

Exit poll madness

David (El Cerrito, CA) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:15:14 GMT

Natalie,

Unfortunately your analysis is not true. I am a true blue democrat that would vote for Hilary Clinton if she wins the popular vote. While those were not the metrics agreed upon on the beginning (pledged delagates were) I believe that winning the popular vote (really winning not just Hilary saying that) is a good enough metric for me to give her my luckwarm support. However if she somehow convinces superdelagates to overturn Obama's popular vote and delagate lead, not only would I not vote for Hilary Clinton I would no longer consider the democratic party as the party of fairness and values, and will switch my registration to independent. If I'm saying that as a white liberal democrat, I think you can imagine the response from African-Americans and young first time voters.

Exit poll madness

blatherful, L.A., CA — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:20:42 GMT

I suppose ther eis soe merit to the ongoing "popular wisdom" that Clinton does better with those particular demographics.... but don't the exit polls also show us that, compared to the OH results, she lost ground almost across the board in terms of overall support (except one notable Obama "base", where she actually gained a tad)....

Incomplete analyses are as bad as taking quotes out of context... Let's look at all the relevant information before making conclusions....

Here's a good example. How does a 9.2% win = a 10% margin of victory?

If you can answer that, then the rest all makes sense too! :)

peace.

Exit poll madness

Vince Los Angeles — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:21:09 GMT

I am very disappointed that the media is buying into this ad hoc argument the Clinton campaign is trying to spin on the public. First of all, Hillary's *big state* argument FAILS. Her argument assumes that her voters wil not support Obama in the general therefore she has the advantage in the *big states*. That argument is bogus because we know that, as of today, at least 50% of her voters would support Obama and we add that number to 100% of Obama's voters and there is a sizeable cross section of Democrats voting for Obama. Not only that, her argument does not consider that she is winning in those states when the choice is between her and Obama. Come November, when the choice is Obama vs. McCain, the voters will have a diffferent viewpoint. The Clintons have been trying to change the rules as we go to suite their ambitions and the Media has been complicit in supporting their delusions.

Exit poll madness

Maggie, Michigan — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:22:21 GMT

That is unfair to Hillary about her voters are uneducators, old woman, etc... From what I see from all blogs discussing their camps over months, obama's supporters are those ones with foul mouth, swearing and attacking Hillary's supporters. I was pretty on Obama's side originally but I switched because I can't be same kind like them. Now tell me who's side is more educated, please!!

Exit poll madness

John, NY — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:23:25 GMT

ABOUT TIME. However white democrats are breaking now is simply not relevant to what will happen in the general election, no matter what the Clintons suggest. The GE will be about turnout, period. Unless the Clinton campaign reverses course quick, both Clintons will not be remembered kindly in the Dem party, particularly if they are associated with some of the 527 race-baiting messages coming of the woodwork now.

Exit poll madness

Michael Lehigh, New Philadelphia, OHIO — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:24:11 GMT

You say Obama has a prblem with "working class voters", and Clinton has a problem with African-American voters. Do you think that African Americans don't work? Aren't they part of the middle class? If you mean white voters say it. Don't call them working class.

Exit poll madness

Angela - Andover NJ — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:24:49 GMT

Is it me or does it seem like all the pundits are drooling over HRC win in PA. Now they are talking like she actually has a chance to win this nomination, especially that idiot Joe Scarborough. Can't we get him off MSNBC.

Exit poll madness

Jon - Raleigh, NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:36:39 GMT

Obama is not and will never be ready to be president of the USA.

patty,sd,ca (Sent Thursday, April 24, 2008 3:15 PM)

So what do you do if he's the nominee Patty? Vot for McCain? Sure and you'll have 4 more years of the same. Are you up for that? Just food for thought.

Exit poll madness

Mister Anderson (The Matrix) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:44:33 GMT

Chuck - I've read First Read religiously everyday since the Democratic Primary in Iowa and I have to say that this is probably the best post I've read.

There is no spin or no bias in it. It's 100% straight to the facts. Every candidate remaining on both sides have particular problems with particular groups. To amplify one above the other is insane because they will all lose if they can't get at least 50% of the group that represents their weakness.

This race in November isn't about the percentage of your weak group you can get, it's about how many total of your strong groups you can turn out. Evangelicals will still probably vote 70/30 for McCain, but not as many will turn out in November as they did for Bush. And Blacks will still vote at least 80/20 for Clinton, but not as many will turn out in November if she steals the nomination from Obama.

My argument all along about why Obama is more electable than Clinton is because Clinton has a 52% ceiling and has no where to go but down. Obama can either win with 60% or lose with 40%, but he doesn't have a ceiling at this point to attract new voters and Independents even after the kitchen sink strategy. And unlike Obama, Clinton will energize the Republican base to turn out when they won't have the same intensity and movitation against Obama. A good chunk of Republicans may not vote for Obama, but they won't turn out in record numbers just to vote against him.

It's that simple. It has been for some time now.

Exit poll madness

Heidi, Houston, TX — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:46:39 GMT

Re:
"But extrapolating their findings to tell us something about another election -- with different candidates and different voters -- is a dubious exercise."

Absolutely right! Apples and oranges.

Although Bubba and Hillary would say that it depends on what the meaning of the word "apple" is.

Exit poll madness

Sandycs1953 Texas City, TX — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:47:48 GMT

j, fl: Once again they post your ignorance on this blog. Go figure.

Exit poll madness

linda — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:50:23 GMT

Actually, I'm kind of tired of hearing about Pennsylavnia exit poll. This is not the only state that is voting. MSM is wearing it out.

Exit poll madness

Mister Anderson (The Matrix) — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 20:50:26 GMT

Sorry, I gave credit to Chuck Todd in my last post. I meant Mark Murray. Thanks!

Exit poll madness

BIGOLDTEXAN — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:06:54 GMT

Both Joe Scarborough and Pat Buchanan
are both racist.....

Listen to them when they talk about Obama.
These guys are really racist.

Exit poll madness

Shel, SLC UT — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:09:41 GMT

FINALLY. Thank you.

Exit poll madness

Lin Lo — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:26:37 GMT

Well, you know what? It's the stupid media that perpetuates this slicing and dicing and spin. Oh, why can't Obama win white voters? This is media BS. He overwhelming won white voters in Iowa, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, etc. This is editorializing PRETENDING to be news. You guys are so full of it. The real question is WHY CAN'T HILLARY, NAME RECOGNITION, POLITICAL MACHINE CLINTON CLOSE THE DEAL?

Exit poll madness

Beth, Chicago, IL — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:28:07 GMT

Excellent piece and wow, even logical which is something that we aren't seeing anymore when it comes to this race. Don't get me wrong, I liked the Clinton years, however I am sick of old Washington tactics and Hillary has completely turned me off with her, "um...not sure if he's a Muslim or not.." Yes you know Hillary he is a Christian. This ongoing, tiring race is just destroying the Democratic chances in the fall. If people's fear of an actually intelligent President of the USA keeps Obama out of the nomination and the White House in '08, I simply will not vote. For those who say they will vote for McCain if their favored candidate - Clinton or Obama does not get the nomination, then you are voting for 4 more years of Bush and frankly my pocketbook and sanity can't take it! Wake up people!