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From msnbc.com’s Carrie Dann
Just shy of two years after Iowans propelled Barack Obama to victory in the first major test of the 2008 Democratic primary, the president’s approval rating in the first caucus state has fallen below 50 percent. A new Des Moines Register poll conducted by the revered Selzer and Co. shows Obama’s positive rating at just 49 percent, a full 19 points below his approval in the state at the time of his inauguration.
(Selzer, you might remember, was the same pollster that showed Obama leading by eight points before the primary against Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
The poll was released Saturday, just as Vice President Joe Biden was arriving in Des Moines to speak as the featured guest at the Iowa Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Ouch.
Obama’s fiery speech at the same venue in 2007 was widely credited as a key moment that vaulted the Illinois senator over rival Hillary Clinton in the Iowa contest.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
After tonight’s vote to put a health reform bill on the floor of the U.S. Senate for the first time in American history, Senate Democrats vowed to pass it, but acknowledged there would be changes.
“We can see the finish line, but we’re not there yet,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said.
The contentious public option is one thing that may likely change, Reid acknowledged. He said that Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu, one of the final three Democratic holdouts before tonight’s vote, is working with Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Tom Carper (D-DE) to come up with an “alternative” public option, one that would be “acceptable” to all Democrats."
“It’s going to be a long stretch,” Reid said, but he declared, “We have the momentum."
He said that not all 60 Democrats agree on the bill as it is now, “but they agree on the vast majority.” Reid said they agreed on more than 90 percent of the bill.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
After hours of debating whether to allow debate to begin on a health reform bill, the Senate voted in favor of letting that happen tonight along strictly partisan lines, 60-39.
The outcome had become all but assured earlier today when Sen. Blanche Lincoln, a moderate Democrat from Arkansas, the last Democratic holdout, said she would vote with her caucus.
It is important to realize that this is just the beginning, the opening kickoff if you will. Lincoln, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) have all said they would not vote for a bill that in the end that includes a public option. And more importantly Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has said he would join a Republican filibuster on the back end if a public option is included.
The other wild card: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Snowe, who voted against cloture tonight, is against the "opt out" version of the public option. But, of course, she is in favor of her "Trigger" option.
CONTINUED >>
Check out this interview with Lou Dobbs on Telemundo, describing himself as one of Latinos "greatest friends." By the way, he sure sounds like he's running for something. But what? And where?
Here's the full video. Here's a clip:
THE WEEK AHEAD: Congress is back for another Saturday night health care vote, Obama's first state dinner, Palin's tour continues, plus a special peek inside the First Read Man Cave with a special goateed guest. Happy Thanksgiving.
See how many sports teams/memorabilia items you can spot! Win fun prizes (not!)
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama has now dropped, for the first time, below 50% approval in the Gallup poll. It's the second poll this week to show that result.
This puts Obama on par with Ronald Reagan, who also fell below 50% 10 months into the job -- and better than Bill Clinton, who fell below in his fourth month. Reagan was dealing with similar economic numbers.
For context, here's what we wrote about this when the possibility was first floated that Obama could fall below 50% back on Sept. 2nd:
*** They’ve done studies, you know -- 50% of the time, it works every time: As of yesterday, President Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup daily tracking poll was 52%, which is close to the 51% in our NBC poll from last month. As Gallup has noted, if Obama falls below 50% in his eighth month on the job, it will be the third-fastest drop below that mark for a new president since World War II. Gerald Ford fell below 50% in his third month, Bill Clinton in his fourth month, Ronald Reagan in his 10th month, Jimmy Carter in his 13th month, Richard Nixon in his 25th month, LBJ in his 29th month, Bush 41 in his 36th month, Bush 43 in his 37th month, and Eisenhower in his 63rd month. Note: Kennedy never fell below 50% before he was assassinated, and George W. Bush was approaching that mark right before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. A few things to remember about all the analysis folks will see on polls in the coming days: There are more BAD polls now than ever before; it confuses the issue and lets some folks cherry-pick what they want. The VERY erratic robo-polling firms have added to the confusion like never before.
*** Obama has him where he wants them? This data above tell us a few things. One, Obama has had a rapid drop and that doesn’t help his prospects for things like health-care reform. Two, the most recent presidents -- Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43 (right before 9/11) -- have experienced similar drops, suggesting an increased political polarization over the past 20 or so years. Three, taking George W. Bush out of the equation due to 9/11, every president who has ended up winning re-election since 1980 saw his approval rating drop below 50% in his first year. Moral of the story: If your goal is to get re-elected, it’s better to have your political struggles early (Clinton, Reagan) rather than later (Bush 41). Kind of like a college football season, right? Better to lose early, than late. So be careful what you read into what Obama’s approval rating right now means for his presidency. There’s really no correlation between how quickly a president’s poll numbers drop and the overall success of his presidency.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
As was expected after Sen. Ben Nelson's (D-NE) statement yesterday explaining what a vote for cloture would mean, he has now released a statement saying that he will vote with Democrats.
His full written statement after the jump:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
After reading reports that Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has already told Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) how she'll vote tomorrow on issue of whether to bring the healthcare bill to the floor, Lincoln's office was quick respond.
"No other Senator speaks for Senator Lincoln," Lincoln's spokeswoman told NBC in an email. "She is still reviewing the bill."
Earlier in the day, the Senate's No. 2 Democrat Dick Durbin told several reporters that Lincoln had already made her voting intentions known to Reid.
"She's told Sen. Reid," Durbin said without revealing the substance of the conversation.
A few hours later, Durbin too joined in with clarifying remarks. In a written statement, he said, "In a conversation with reporters earlier today, some of my remarks regarding Sen. Lincoln were unclear and have been incorrectly interpreted.
"Let me be clear: Senator Lincoln has had a number of conversations with Sen. Reid about the health care reform legislation. She has asked important questions and there has been a positive and healthy give and take. But Sen. Lincoln has not yet signaled her intention as to how she will vote on tomorrow's cloture motion. I have worked with Sen. Lincoln for years and know that she will reach a decision that is best for her constituents, her state and the nation."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
At a news conference this morning, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) pre-emptively gave the his answer to the question everyone's been asking over the past few weeks: does Majority Leader Harry Reid have the 60 votes needed to bring the healthcare bill to the floor.
"We're not assuming a thing," Durbin said, "we're working hard to bring all Democrats together for the 60 votes necessary to proceed to this historic debate."
But it's possible Durbin and Reid are playing coy and already know they how the vote will go down Saturday night.
In a gaggle with reporters following the news conference (off-camera), Durbin was asked if he knew how Blanche Lincoln will vote on Saturday. Lincoln has been by far the most tight-lipped of the three Democratic holdouts about how she might vote.
"She's told Senator Reid," Durbin said, but wouldn't answer the obvious follow-up question. "You'll have to ask Senator Reid."
It begs the questions if fellow centrist Democrats Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu have also informed Reid.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** More Saturday Night Fever: The Senate is expected to take its vote to proceed on Senate Majority Leader Reid’s bill on Saturday. Democrats will need 60 votes -- i.e., their entire caucus -- to clear this initial procedural hurdle. Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, the vote is expected to take place around 8:00 pm ET. At this point, Strick adds, it doesn’t look like there will be any Senate work on Sunday, nor will there be any effort to make the Senate clerk read every page of the bill out loud, at least this week. If it plays out this way, the Senate would be off all of the next week for Thanksgiving recess and return on Nov. 30. Realistically, is more being made out of this drama than should be? Does it make political sense for any Democrat to prevent even debate on this bill even for Democrats who may eventually vote against it? To not allow debate would be a slap in the face of the Dem base and no Dem officeholder would do that, would they? We know that everything in DC and health care has to have the feel of some drama, but this feels like much ado about nothing. If Reid and the Obama White House can't even get the bill on to the floor, then there are much BIGGER problems in the Dem party than unity on health care. But if they do pass it, it is historic.
*** Land of Lincoln: That said, for the vote tomorrow, we’ve noted the moderates to watch: Ben Nelson (NE), Mary Landrieu (LA), and Blanche Lincoln (AR). But Lincoln is perhaps the most intriguing. Nelson and Landrieu have seemed to indicate their support at least for a cloture vote since their meeting with Reid two days ago. Remember, neither of them is up for re-election next year. But Lincoln is, and it’s been radio silence from her on her cloture vote. She’s really in a pressure cooker. Liberals are pushing for a primary challenge if she doesn’t support health care (something Republicans have to be salivating over) and the looks of a potentially competitive GENERAL election next year. Still, it would be a shock to see Lincoln kill this since she actually does have to worry about a primary challenge -- and she would have single-handedly have killed the prospects NOW for the health bill. By the way, Lincoln knows a little something about Dem primary challenges, she first got into Congress by challenging an incumbent member of her OWN party.
*** Welcome back, Mr. President: If President Obama turned on the nightly news at the White House after returning from his eight-day trip through Asia, he saw plenty of unwelcome news yesterday. Members of Congress were asking for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to resign from his job; students in California were protesting huge hikes in their tuition costs; in the morning, the nation’s aviation system nearly grinded to a halt after a router glitch; and women were confused about new mammogram guidelines -- the news of which Republicans seized on to throw a wrench into health-care reform. In short, it wasn’t a good day -- and hasn’t been really that good of a week -- for the White House. As for Geithner, it looks like he's becoming the whipping boy for frustrated members of Congress on the economy. Is this fair? Remember, this happened to John Snow, and then we got Hank Paulson.
*** Iran is key to watch: Regarding Obama’s trip to Asia, it looks like the C.W. is that he didn't get big things done. And he didn't. But the reality is that we won't know how successful this trip is for a little while. Near-term, it's about the push for sanctions against Iran. In fact, if the Obama administration gets Russia on board for tougher sanctions, and if China -- at a minimum -- decides to simply abstain and allow the U.S. to go forward with a tougher stance against Iran, then the C.W. on this trip and on the president's approach to foreign policy will shift back in his favor. While some want to pile on the president over Iran and say, "I told you so" regarding Iran walking away from the negotiating table, it's actually an opportunity for the president to show a stiff spine on a major national security issue. And if Russia does come aboard for truly tough sanctions, it would be an example of Obama's foreign policy doctrine of engagement and respect with quasi allies/rivals working. That's not bad domestic politics either.
*** What we learned at the RGA…: What did we learn at the Republican Governors Association meeting here that concluded last night? That Republicans feel VERY good about the overall political environment and their prospects for next year's midterm elections. That no one here really wanted to talk about Sarah Palin, her new book, or her political prospects. That RGA Chair Haley Barbour is personally backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the gubernatorial primary and wants Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to stay in the Senate. And that embattled Mark Sanford could attend the meeting and (almost!) not be spotted by the political press corps.
*** … And what we didn’t: What did we NOT learn? If the current political winds will continue to stay at the GOP's back. If Palinism will end up trumping McDonnellism, or vice versa. If anyone in attendance -- Pawlenty, Jindal, Barbour, someone else? -- will end up being the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee. And if anyone else picked up on the irony of the RGA airing this "Saturday Night Live" skit to kick off its panel looking at the 2010 midterms.
*** White House pushes back against stimulus criticism: Following up on our note yesterday about the Obama White House losing the P.R. war over the stimulus, an administration official said he’s standing by the estimated number of "jobs created or saved" by the stimulus act, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. "The data debate has been frustrating, but it's a side show," said Ed Deserve, adviser to the president for Recovery Act Implementation, who took questions from reporters on a conference call. Deserve was following up on a hearing held yesterday on the House side, where the GAO reported on errors that were made in the administration's calculation that led to the claim that 640,000 jobs created as of Oct. 30 because of the stimulus. Deserve said the estimate is in line with those of outside economists, and repeated the claim that when both "direct, indirect, and induced" jobs were included, the number was 1 to 1.5 million jobs. Deserve’s comments came after Earl Devaney, the government watchdog overseeing the stimulus, said he couldn’t vouch for the administration’s 640,000 figure.
*** A 'profile' in irony? Sarah Palin showed she's not afraid of wading into racial politics. In a two-day stretch this week, she 1) criticized John McCain for not going after Obama harder on Jeremiah Wright and 2) advocated for profiling. "I say, profile away," Palin told the Weekly Standard, adding, "Such political correctness could be our downfall." Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen, hardly liberals, see it differently. Gates yesterday: “[I]n a nation as diverse as the United States the last thing we need to do is start pointing fingers at each other, particularly when there's no basis in fact for it." This is usually tricky terrain for politicians. But Palin has decided to bull through the issue. Yet advocacy for profiling -- which calls for drawing on broad stereotypes of whole groups of people -- is somewhat ironic coming from Palin. Consider her annoyance with her perception that Katie Couric was stereotyping her for asking her about which newspapers she reads. She told Oprah: "Are you kidding me? Are you really asking me?' To me, it was in the context of, ‘Do you read? How do you stay informed, you're way up there?' It seemed like she was discovering this nomadic tribe, a member of a tribe from some Neanderthal cave in Alaska, asking me, ‘How do you stay in touch with the real world?'" And then there's her criticism over the Newsweek cover, which plenty, including Democrats have criticized. But it seems she wants to be against political correctness unless it involves herself.
*** Also today: Vice President Joe Biden turns 67 years old. And an exhibit of the late Tim Russert's office opens at the Newseum in DC.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 18 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 60 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 347 days
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