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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Obama campaign announced that California DNC Member Ed Espinoza has endorsed the Illinois senator as well today. So far today, it's a net of Obama 4-0. Obama: Espinoza, NC DNC Member John Gage, Reps. Donald Payne of NJ and Peter DeFazio of Oregon. Clinton: Rep. Chris Carney of PA, but she lost lost Payne.
The NBC delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 266
TOTAL: Obama 1,856, Clinton 1,699.5.
* There are 255.5 undeclared superdelegates (about 50 of which are not named yet).
* Since the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on Tuesday, it's a net of Obama 10-1 in superdelegates.
* Obama is 169 away from the magic number of 2,025.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Rep. Rahm Emanuel called Obama the "presumptive nominee" in an interview with the New Yorker's Ryan Lizza. Emanuel has obvious ties to the Clintons, but he is also from Illinois. It's why, he says, he's held out and not endorsed. That's “why I’m hiding under my desk,” he says.
Emanuel also joked that the undeclareds that remain are part of "an exclusive club.”
When asked if there “is there a way for Democrats to blow this election?”, Emanuel said, “The answer is in the question ... I’d rather be us then them.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
National Journal’s Linda Douglass sat for an interview with undeclared South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn. He says a couple of interesting things: (a) If Clinton believes Obama will do poorly with white voters in November, based on how he has done in the primaries, does that mean she believes she will only get 8% of the black vote in November, based on how she’s doing now?; And (b) He makes it very clear that any perceived backroom deal had better not take the nomination away from Obama, because that would devastate young people and blacks. He speaks rather emotionally about his daughter and grandson’s support for Obama.
Here's a portion of that interview:
DOUGLASS: …Hillary Clinton has been continuing to campaign today, yesterday, throughout West Virginia and the other states that she is seeking to win, making the argument that she wins with certain kinds of voters -- blue collar voters, Catholic voters, and Obama does not. Do you think that as she continues to press the case that he can't win, that she's doing damage to him as a candidate?
CLYBURN: Continuing to press the case seems to me to be in search of a self-fulfilling prophecy here. You know, we all know anything that continues to be reinforced in the minds of voters, tends to take on a life of its own. I would hope, as I have said before, that the candidates will continue to press their case on their own behalf. …
LD: ...She was quoted today in USA Today describing her strengths against his weaknesses, and she said about herself, quoting from a news article, she was talking about a news article, but Senator Clinton said the following -- that Senator Obama's support among working, hard working Americans, white Americans is weakening again. And whites in both states who have not completed college were supporting me. There is a pattern emerging here, she said. What's your reaction to that quote?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The Clinton campaign releases that, "several members of Congress released a letter today to other Democrats touting their support for Hillary, saying she is the strongest candidate to have at the top of the ticket in the fall: '[W]e are convinced that Hillary Clinton has the vision, skills and commitment to make the changes our country needs. As Democrats who have run and won in competitive Congressional districts and battleground states, we believe that Hillary is best positioned to successfully lead the Democratic ticket in districts and states like ours around the country.' (Read the letter.)
Here's the letter:
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Where's the super flood? Since Tuesday, Obama has picked up eight superdelegates to Clinton’s net of one. But that’s not quite the superdelegate flood many had expected after North Carolina and Indiana. What’s going on here? Part of it seems to be that some Dem supers are still waiting for the dust to settle from Tuesday’s aftermath. Also, there does seem to be the thought that a quick rush to Obama could end up embarrassing a candidate who’s still campaigning hard in West Virginia, Oregon, and beyond. But there’s also some concern that Obama could be a problem for superdelegates representing conservative and rural districts. See Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney’s endorsement of Clinton today. The fact is this Dem primary race went on long enough and became divisive enough that there are supers who could never endorse Clinton OVER Obama and vice versa. So until Clinton exits, we may not see a super flood. Also, Clinton's camp may have successfully convinced some to wait and see if a 25-30-point Clinton win in West Virginia shakes things up at all.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on John Edwards' interviews on "TODAY" and "Morning Joe."***
Where we stand: In addition to the two congressional superdelegates (Reps. Brad Miller of NC and Rick Larsen of WA) he picked up yesterday, Obama added two more overnight (Reps. Peter
DeFazio of OR and Donald
Payne of NJ). Payne had previously backed Clinton, so that takes one away from her total, but she made that up with the backing this morning of Rep. Chris
Carney of PA. Here’s the count: PLEDGED: Obama 1590, Clinton 1426; SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 264; TOTAL: Obama 1854, Clinton 1699.5. There are now 257.5 undeclared superdelegates. By the way, if May 20 is indeed the day Obama claims victory (all he needs is about 30 pledged delegates to claim the majority of all pledged delegates awarded), don't expect Obama to give his victory speech in Oregon (the state that will get him most, if not all of those 30 needed delegates). And don't expect the speech to be in Chicago. While the campaign won't say where, start your own pools: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia? That's the quint-fecta we'd bet.
***
And so it begins…: If yesterday was the second unofficial day of the general campaign between Obama and McCain, then it may end up being a lot more contentious than either candidate themselves has claimed. It all started when Obama -- responding to a question about McCain referring to Obama as the candidate that Hamas is supporting -- said this: “For [McCain] to toss out comments like that I think is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination. We don’t need name calling in this debate.” That prompted a response from McCain adviser Mark Salter: “First, let us be clear about the nature of Senator Obama's attack today: He used the words 'losing his bearings' intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue. This is typical of the Obama style of campaigning.” And then the Obama camp fired back: “Clearly losing one’s bearings has no relation to age, given this bizarre rant that Mark Salter just sent out. It’s clear why a candidate offering a third term of George Bush’s disastrous economic policies and failed strategy in Iraq would want to distract and attack.” Salter memos are going to become legendary by the end of this campaign; he's one of the more clever writers in politics today and he doesn't mind getting his hands dirty. The sarcastic wit that's usually buried in his missives will no doubt be the source of more heated back-n-forth exchanges.
*** Obama and Jewish voters: Lost in the Hamas back-and-forth between Obama and Mark Salter was the big push yesterday by Obama to start healing whatever wounds there are between Jewish Democrats and Obama. He attended a DC-celebration of the 60th anniversary of Israel and hit all the correct notes any politician needs to hit to earn the trust of Israel and of Jews who see Israel as their No. 1 one voting issue. If this was a start, it may pay dividends, but if this is all Obama does in his reach out, it won't be good enough. Isn't it likely Obama does a major speech on Israel's security sometime soon in a state, oh, like Florida?
*** Is Clinton playing the race card? That seems to be the conclusion of everyone from Peggy Noonan to the New York Times’ editorial page. This warning by the Times will have a lot of people talking today: “Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that ‘Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.’ She added: ‘There’s a pattern emerging here.’ Yes, there is a pattern -- a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.” Politico's Smith added that Clinton was as blunt as she ever was on the issue of her white support. He speculated that it might not have been an accident, since there are no primaries left with significant African-American electorates.
*** Just asking: So who watched Edwards on TODAY and MORNING JOE this morning and thinks they've figured out whom he voted for in the North Carolina primary? We think we did. Edwards says he's not ready to endorse, but he did say Obama had the best chance to beat McCain because of new voters. And he refused to discuss whether he and Elizabeth voted for the same person. Anyone who has spent time with Elizabeth Edwards recently probably thinks they know who SHE voted for in the NC primary as well.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Oregon and Louisville, KY; McCain begins his day with an event in New Jersey and then heads to South Carolina, where he holds a media avail and raises money; and Obama -- in Oregon like Clinton -- holds a town hall in Albany and a rally in Eugene.
Countdown to West Virginia: 4 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 179 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 256 days
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The Washington Post's Balz writes, "Party strategists sketch out at least three scenarios for a possible end to the Clinton campaign. The cleanest envisions Clinton suddenly deciding the race is over and, for the good of the party, deciding to suspend her candidacy. That could happen after next week's primary in West Virginia, which she is expected to win easily, or the following week, when she is expected to win Kentucky and Obama is favored to win Oregon."
"The messy scenario would see Clinton continuing her campaign all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August -- arguing that she would be the stronger nominee against Sen. John McCain -- and mounting challenges before the party's credentials committee over the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates."
"At this point, neither the clean nor messy endgame seems likely -- to strategists in either campaign or to other Democrats watching the race. Clinton vowed to stay in the race but also has pledged that, if it is clear Obama has the nomination sewn up, to support him and work to unify the party and defeat McCain. That suggests the third scenario, that the race will not end until June 3 or soon after. Given what she said Wednesday about staying in until there is a nominee, and given the likelihood of rapid movement of superdelegates to Obama once the primaries are over (if not before), Clinton could declare the race over at that point.”
“A fourth scenario envisions Clinton being forced suddenly to suspend her campaign because she is out of money. Already she and her husband have lent the campaign more than $11 million. In addition, the campaign as of April had reported debts of about $10 million."
The Los Angeles Times notes how there's no clear path to victory for Clinton, nor a clear path to the exit. “One Clinton aide said Thursday: ‘There is a profound sadness’ among the staff. ‘I don't think anyone sees that there's a clear path to victory here.’”
“Richard Schiffrin, a national finance co-chairman for Clinton, is scheduled to meet with other fundraisers and her next week. Schiffrin said he would tell her: "Let's look at the situation as it exists and think about whether there's a credible path to the nomination, and if there isn't, what's Plan B?’”
“He added: ‘The bottom line is she's going to make a decision that in my view will be in the best interests of the party and the country.’”
CONTINUED >>
“Rep. Donald Payne (D-10th Dist.), a New Jersey superdelegate who had been supporting Hillary Clinton for president, has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama. ‘After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs," Payne told The Star-Ledger for today's editions. It was ‘one of the most difficult decisions I have made,’ Payne said. ‘I've really been mulling it over for quite a while."
Also, Obama's trip to Oregon got off to a good start before he even arrived. Congressman Peter DeFazio, a superdelegate, says he will support the Illinois senator. That moves Obama one small step closer to presidential nomination.
Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney sided with Clinton, who won his very conservative district.
The Wall Street Journal says some supers haven't come out for Obama because of a fear of "backlash at home." The paper writes, "Many of the politicians sitting on the fence are from conservative states or mostly white, rural districts, where Sen. Obama has had the least success. Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, is expected to face a tough re-election fight in the fall and hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate. Despite her neutrality, the Republican Party has been airing an advertisement on YouTube that poses the question of whether she will endorse Sen. Obama. The ad transposes her picture with his picture and overlays it with a muddy recording of a speech in which he described small-town and working-class voters as ‘bitter.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe: “Obama and John McCain have pledged a civil campaign, but a war of words erupted yesterday over McCain's suggestion that the terrorist group Hamas prefers Obama for president. Obama, taking a tougher line with the presumptive Republican nominee, said McCain was trying to smear him and was ‘losing his bearings.’”
“Losing his bearings” drew the ire of McCain senior adviser Mark Salter, who penned a sharp memo, ripping Obama for what he saw as Obama blatantly invoking McCain’s age. The New York Post called it “Mac age rage.”
UPCOMING CONTESTS: WV uphill for Obama
USA Today previews the West Virginia primary and notes the uphill battle for Obama there. "In West Virginia, Gov. Joe Manchin says ‘you drive to survive’ and the gas price spike has hit particularly hard. ‘It's hard to drive from here to Huntington when gas is $4 a gallon and you're getting paid minimum wage,’ says Wayne Mayor Junior Ramey.”
“This state of small towns is home to the gun-owning, church-going, financially struggling voters whom Hillary Rodham Clinton is targeting Tuesday. She says Obama alienated them with his remark before the Pennsylvania primary last month about ‘bitter’ dislocated workers in small towns ‘clinging’ to guns and religion." More: "Demanding that a presidential entourage make it up the tricky switchback roads that lead to this town of 1,144 isn't as farfetched as it seems. No Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916, and at least one made it to Wayne."
"Clinton has been running well ahead of Obama in several West Virginia polls. The state's older, mostly white and blue-collar population hits the dynamics of Clinton supporters. Pat Maroney, a former state Democratic Party chairman and the party's national committeeman, said victory for Clinton is still possible. ‘Yes, I think she probably can [still win]," he said at the morning rally. "[The extended presidential battle] has been good for the country and the state to have this kind of dialogue.’”
The New York Post: “Clinton played the race card yesterday as she dismissed Barack Obama as a candidate who will have a hard time winning support from ‘white Americans.’ It was the most starkly racial comment Clinton has made in the campaign, and drew quick condemnation from some Democrats.
“ ‘I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,’ she told USA Today in an interview published yesterday. She referred to an Associated Press story on Indiana and North Carolina exit polls ‘that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hardworking Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.’ She added, ‘There's a pattern emerging here.’”
Here’s what some said in response: “Muriel Offerman, a North Carolina superdelegate who has not disclosed her choice, said, ‘That should not have been said. I think it drives a wedge, a racial wedge, and that's not what the Democratic Party's about.’ Asked about Clinton's comments, Massachusetts superdelegate Debra Kozikowsi said, ‘That's distressing. I'm not even sure how to respond to that.’”
The New York Daily News: “Hillary Clinton misplays race card while Barack Obama is treated like rock star.” “[S]ome of her supporters -- including Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Manhattan) -- slammed the comments. ‘I can't believe Sen. Clinton would say anything that dumb,’ Rangel told The News as he headed to the House floor, where earlier he had embraced Obama. The bitter words came as both candidates looked ahead to West Virginia's primary Tuesday and pressed their talking points -- Clinton insisting she was in the race to win, while Obama argued he could have the nomination wrapped up when Oregon and Kentucky vote on May 20.”
Peggy Noonan also believes Clinton played the race card in her USA Today interview. "If John McCain said, ‘I got the white vote, baby!’ his candidacy would be over. And rising in highest indignation against him would be the old Democratic Party. To play the race card as Mrs. Clinton has, to highlight and encourage a sense that we are crudely divided as a nation, to make your argument a brute and cynical ‘the black guy can't win but the white girl can’ is -- well, so vulgar, so cynical, so cold, that once again a Clinton is making us turn off the television in case the children walk by.”
“‘She has unleashed the gates of hell,’ a longtime party leader told me. ‘She's saying, “He's not one of us.”’
John Edwards said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe that he disagrees with Clinton’s “white Americans” comment and that she's got to ask herself, "Where are the lines?" He added, “I think it’s fine for Hillary to keep making the case for her. But when that shifts to everything that is wrong with him, then we’re doing damage instead of being helpful.”
And did Edwards tip his hand on who he’s backing? He called Obama the "likely nominee.” And we’ll chalk this one up to his Southern accent, but he said he "voted for 'em on Tuesday.” (Sounded an awful lot like "him.")
Also… “I think Barack Obama’s doing pretty well without my help.” Edwards also said, “He is clearly the likely nominee at this point.”
Edwards said he may choose to publicly declare for one of the candidates, but he’s keeping it to himself “just for now.” He added, though, that he doesn’t think his endorsement matters except to “people like you all” [the media]. He wouldn’t answer if he and his wife, Elizabeth, voted for different people.
CONTINUED >>
