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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Mike Viqueira, and Luke Russert
House Democrats "intend" to bring the health-reform bill to a vote tomorrow on the House floor. But as many as 20 to 30 votes could hinge on abortion.
Fix abortion, the bill passes, one Democrat said. Don't fix it, it doesn't.
Many of these members are waiting for a yay or nay from the Conference of Catholic Bishops on the abortion language.
Moderates Bart Stupak (D-MI) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), two of the central figures in this abortion fight, are currently in the Speaker's office.
Another member said there is a real push among Catholic members who support the bill to get other other, more skeptical, pro-life Catholic Democrats on board.
Also, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is making calls on this. President Obama is supposed to head to the Hill tomorrow to try and wrangle votes.
BUT sources indicate the president's appearance tomorrow is still up in the air, depending on the prospects for success tomorrow. (Perhaps the White House doesn't want the perception of a repeat of Copenhagen to get the Olympics for Chicago.)
THE WEEK AHEAD: Health vote nears ... Obama heads to Asia ... Plouffe book out ... Pawlenty to Mexico ... Spitzer talks ethics? ... Meet the Press has Barbour/Rendell
From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Wendy Jones
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton today addressed the first public policy forum of NoLimits.org, an education foundation focusing on issues like work-family policies, healthcare reform and human rights. The nonpartisan group was founded by Ann Lewis, whose brother is House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank.
Clinton said she recognized many friends in the audience, including her best friend from sixth grade, as well as many whom she met "in the cauldron of the 2008 election." She called Lewis Rep. Frank's "long-suffering sister," joking about Lewis's reaction to Frank's speech earlier at the forum: "He did great but his shirt was untucked!"
Although the speech was devoted mostly to Clinton's experience thus far as Secretary of State, she did comment on some of the day's news, expressing optimism about the House passing its health care bill tomorrow.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Doug Adams
With word that the healthcare reform vote may slip in the House, it's clear that Democrats are still scrambling to get to enough of their members on board. With the assumption that no Republicans will support the bill, Democrats (who now number 258) need to keep their defections to under 40 in order to get to a bare majority of 218 votes.
There are a couple of different factions. Many of the moderate Blue Dog Democrats think the overall bill is too expensive and chances are a big handful of them will vote against the bill. Then, there are some Democrats in marginal districts who are worried about their re-election race -- in some cases the leadership could give them a pass to oppose.
And two policy sticking points have emerged -- abortion and immigration.
Here's a short primer on those two bugaboos:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democratic House leadership contends there will, in fact, be a vote tomorrow on health-reform legislation -- despite reports suggesting a vote could be pushed back to Sunday or even next week.
An aide told First Read that "assuming all goes well," they are aiming for a vote late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. The aide, however, conceded the vote could slip later into tomorrow evening.
"We still expect to vote on health care tomorrow," the aide said.
The only thing that could push it off -- aside from not having the votes, and Dems don't have those yet -- are procedural delays by Republicans.
But Republican leadership says that's not part of the plan.
A GOP aide said they are happy to watch Democrats "flopping around like landed haddock." (For those wondering, haddock is a deep water cod.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Luke Russert and Domenico Montanaro
The House is coming on tomorrow for what was supposed to be a rare Saturday vote on health care.
But signs are pointing to a delay to Sunday or possibly next week due, in part, to unresolved issues over abortion and illegal immigration -- as well as the possibility for Republicans to use delay tactics.
Nancy Pelosi, in remarks today, hinted at a delay with this comment: "Within the next few days, the House will vote on the most comprehensive health care legislation in our history."
"Within the next few days...."
Aides to Speaker Pelosi insist they are ready for Saturday action saying, "Our plan is to go tomorrow, which has been clear."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The race to 218 -- or more: Tomorrow night, the House is expected to vote on the Democrats' health care bill. And from now until then, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's goal -- as well as President Obama’s -- will be this: getting at least 218 votes. The next 48 hours are going to be wild, but considering the country’s focus on the tragedy to Ft. Hood, the battle will take place mostly behind the scenes and out of the media spotlight. President Obama heads to Capitol Hill tomorrow to convince on-the-fence lawmakers. Democrats currently have 258 members, and since we’re expecting zero GOP votes, that means Democrats can lose 40 members. Yet there are Dems concerned about the public option, abortion, and immigration (Congressional Hispanic Caucus members say they will vote against the measure if it prohibits illegal immigrants from being able to purchase insurance in the exchange). While we expect the House to pass the bill, it’s important to note that Pelosi has pointedly NOT said she has the votes. Why? Because she doesn’t have the votes yet. Everything we hear is that Dems have about a little more than 200 votes. Also, the goal isn’t really 218 -- but rather 225, so that there isn't one vote that decides this. You can just picture the TV ads if the bill passes by one vote, right?
*** How Saturday will go: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer explained yesterday on the House floor how Saturday will go, according to NBC’s Luke Russert. "My expectation is that on Saturday we will convene at 9:00 am in the morning. After one-minutes, we will then go to the rule on the health-care bill, and it is my expectation that we will have consideration of the healthcare bill and the Republican substitute. If we proceed a pace and come to vote and disposition on that piece of legislation, we would then adjourn at whatever hour we complete our work and the adjournment would be till the 16th of November.” Hoyer later added, “Again I want to clarify and make sure everybody understands it is our intent to finish the healthcare bill, sometime Saturday night or early Sunday morning, it would be my expectation that there would be no further business till the 16th."
*** Passing the 10% mark: Well, the White House knew it was coming, and now it’s here: The unemployment rate has topped 10% -- the first time since 1983. Per the AP, “The Labor Department says the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September.” But the unemployment rate increased, from 9.8% in Sept. to 10.2% in Oct. It only took about five minutes for Republicans to pounce on the numbers.
*** Brooks vs. Krugman: Interestingly (but not necessarily surprisingly), David Brooks and Paul Krugman offer the White House contradictory advice. Brooks says that Obama needs to play to the middle. “[T]hese voters are not turning to government for support. Trust in government is at its lowest level in recent memory. Over the past year, there has been a shift to the right on issue after issue. According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who believe that there is too much government regulation rose from 38 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in 2009. The percentage of Americans who want unions to have less influence rose from 32 percent to a record 42 percent.” On the other hand, Krugman argues the White House hasn’t been aggressive enough. “President Obama came into office with a strong mandate and proclaimed the need to take bold action on the economy. His actual actions, however, were cautious rather than bold. They were enough to pull the economy back from the brink, but not enough to bring unemployment down.”
*** Stepping on the NY-23 narrative: Turning to Tuesday’s elections, Republicans have had two very good stories to talk about (New Jersey and Virginia) and one they really don’t want to discuss (NY-23). So what did some of their leaders do yesterday? They stepped right on the NY-23 narrative. First was the thousands-strong Tea Party rally/protest/press conference on Capitol Hill -- attended by GOP congressional leaders -- which only furthered the perception (true or not) that the GOP has become captive to its conservative base. Next came RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s apparent warning shot to moderate Republicans who supported the stimulus or health care. “We’ll come after you,” he relayed to ABC. (An RNC spokeswoman told First Read that Steele was referring only to House members, and not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus, and not a single one is expected to back health reform.)
*** Da Club targets Crist: Further stepping on the NY-23 narrative, the Club for Growth is running its first TV ad targeting Charlie Crist. The spot ties the Florida governor to Obama. By the way, a Crist-vs.-Rubio contest all seems to hinge on whether Rubio is the real deal. Somehow, Crist has to make Rubio seem either unelectable or someone who isn't ready. That's not a good place for Crist to be, because he suddenly doesn't have complete control of his destiny. He may have to win in the worst way and then that could make him vulnerable in a general, though many Republicans are extremely confident that Dem nominee-in-waiting Kendrick Meek is beatable by either Republican. The bar for Rubio as a candidate is lower than Crist's. It's going to be a LONG none months between now and the primary for Charlie Crist.
*** Others say David Paterson has been an awesome governor: Well, it doesn’t look like very vulnerable Gov. David Paterson (D) is going to bow out of his race anytime soon. Yesterday, his campaign released two TV ads that will begin airing statewide today. The first takes aim at some of his critics. “Some say I shouldn’t be running for governor,” Paterson says to the camera, singling out state legislators, union leaders, and corporations (but he leaves out the Obama White House, which doesn’t want him running, either). The other ad is a biographical spot. New York’s CBS affiliate also notes that Paterson has hired Harold Ickes for his campaign.
*** Things you might not have known about the VA contest: As it turns out, Creigh Deeds (D) lost the female vote to McDonnell (R), 46%-54%, despite making women’s issues a central part of his campaign; in fact, he was the first statewide Democrat to lose the VA female vote since 2000… Deeds also narrowly lost Fairfax County in Northern Virginia, 49%-51%; by comparison, Obama won it last year, 60%-39% and Tim Kaine won it in 2005, 60%-38%... In addition, Deeds underperformed Kaine in Loudon County and Virginia Beach (which, of course, happens when you lose a race by 18 percentage points)… And turnout was about 1.9 million -- which was equal to the ’05 gubernatorial race, but down from 2006 (2.4 million) and 2008 (3.7 million).
*** Things you might not have known about the NJ contest: Sorry, Bruce, this one’s gotta hurt: If one of us were still working for Asbury Park Press, the daily paper of the Jersey Shore, and home to Springsteen, our headline might be something like this -- “Shore propels Christie to victory.” That’s because Monmouth and Ocean counties, the two counties that make up the Press’ readership, were Christie’s top two vote-getting counties and saw the biggest increases in total vote for the Republican from ’05 to ’09 (+27,000 in Monmouth and +30,000 in Ocean). And the combined vote margin that Christie won by in the two counties over Corzine -- 134,367 -- accounted “for more than his margin of victory,” as the Press wrote yesterday… Corzine also got fewer votes in EVERY single county in the state than he did in ’05, and Christie got MORE votes out of every county than Doug Forrester ’05… Basically, when you look at the entire state, Corzine got destroyed in the suburbs, and although he held margins in traditionally Democratic Counties around New York City and Philadelphia, he got fewer votes out of them. Even though overall turnout was about the same as 2005, it was down in Democratic ones and up in Republican ones.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 32 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 74 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 361 days
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The Washington Post looks at Nancy Pelosi’s race to get 218 votes. “Although confident of victory, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other Democratic leaders were working to limit defections to the roughly 25 Democrats viewed as "hard no" votes. There will be 258 Democrats in the House by the time the vote takes place, but to secure the 218 votes needed for passage -- and with prospects dim for Republican converts -- Pelosi can afford to lose no more than 40 members of her caucus.”
More: “For party leaders, setting a weekend deadline for passage represented a calculated risk, one that could backfire if the vote -- now expected late Saturday or Sunday -- fails or must be delayed. But they feared that if members were given more time to consider the legislation, new issues could arise, particularly as lawmakers digest the results from Tuesday's elections. Most ominous for Democrats were their losses in gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, although the party did prevail in House special elections in New York and California.”
The New York Times: “Readying for the first floor test of legislation months in the making, top Democrats appealed to undecided lawmakers while trying to quell resistance from Hispanic House members worried the measure was too punitive regarding illegal immigrants and anti-abortion lawmakers who fear that public money could be funneled toward abortions.”
The illegal immigration issue is emerging as the biggest threat to passing healthcare reform in the House, The Hill adds. “Congressional Hispanics have threatened to vote against the bill because of a last-minute threat from within the Democratic Caucus to bolster the House bills immigration restrictions to match those included in the Senate Finance bill. CHC members met with the president at the White House and insisted he drop his opposition to illegal immigrants being able to buy insurance in the exchange.”
"In a step that reflected deep partisan divisions in the Senate over the issue of global warming, Democrats on the Environment and Public Works Committee pushed through a climate bill on Thursday without any debate or participation by Republicans," the New York Times says. "The measure passed by an 11-to-1 vote with the support of all the Democratic committee members except Senator Max Baucus of Montana. The seven Republicans boycotted the committee meetings this week, saying they had not had sufficient time to study the bill... The move suggests that President Obama and Democratic supporters of the bill will have serious problems assembling the votes needed to enact it when it comes to the Senate floor, probably not before next year."
Former President George W. Bush will deliver a keynote address at SMU on Nov. 12 outlining his vision for his policy institute, which will be part of the George W. Bush Presidential Center, his office said yesterday.
Dana Milbank on yesterday's Tea Party protestors: "Many of the demonstrators chanted 'Weasel Queen,' their pet name for the speaker of the House. Others wore masks of Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); they were covered in fake blood and carrying dolls representing aborted fetuses, as the Grim Reaper led them in chains to hell. In the front of the protest, a sign showed President Obama in white coat, his face painted to look like the Joker. The sign, visible to the lawmakers as they looked into the cameras, carried a plea to 'Stop Obamunism.' A few steps farther was the guy holding a sign announcing 'Obama takes his orders from the Rothchilds' [sic], accusing Obama of being part of a Jewish plot to introduce the antichrist."
Salon’s Mike Madden writes that a small mob of protestors had gathered in the Cannon Office Building “for what anti-choice kook Randall Terry billed as a sit-in to protest abortion-related provisions in the House healthcare reform legislation. They wound up mixing with some of the people who streamed in after Bachmann's ‘House Call’ rally ended to tell members of Congress how vehemently they oppose providing universal access to healthcare. Someone tore up all 1,990 pages of the reform bill and scattered them on the floor; a few of Terry's pals got arrested; the crowd started chanting, ‘Kill the bill! Kill the bill!’ and just like that, the police were clearing the hallway. ‘This is the people's House, and we're being kicked out?’ one woman muttered as she walked away. ‘Nancy Pelosi can kiss my fat ass.’”
Mike Huckabee is out front again of another poll measuring GOP 2012 front runners 71% of Republicans say they’d seriously consider voting for Huckabee; 65% said so of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin; 60% of Newt Gingrich; 32% of Tim Pawlenty; 26% of Haley Barbour.
Sarah Palin will skip New York City on her book tour this month, but here comes the consolation prize: Almost-son-in-law Levi Johnston will be here next week to pocket roughly $100,000 for a nude photo shoot, the New York Daily News writes. “Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee and former Alaska governor, is skipping the customary book-tour stops - in bigger cities - and spending time in smaller burgs to plug her campaign memoir Going Rogue. Palin kicks off the book tour in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Nov. 18."
Peace, out? “President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, citing dismay over the progress of US-brokered peace initiatives, said yesterday that he
does not want to run for reelection when his term ends in January, potentially upending the Obama administrations strategy for the region. But advisers and analysts said it was possible he was merely venting frustration over a dialogue with the United States and Israel that has undercut him politically without any marked progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state. I do not wish to run for the upcoming presidential elections, the 74-year-old leader said. This decision is not for negotiation or maneuver.”
