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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** More Saturday Night Fever: The Senate is expected to take its vote to proceed on Senate Majority Leader Reid’s bill on Saturday. Democrats will need 60 votes -- i.e., their entire caucus -- to clear this initial procedural hurdle. Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, the vote is expected to take place around 8:00 pm ET. At this point, Strick adds, it doesn’t look like there will be any Senate work on Sunday, nor will there be any effort to make the Senate clerk read every page of the bill out loud, at least this week. If it plays out this way, the Senate would be off all of the next week for Thanksgiving recess and return on Nov. 30. Realistically, is more being made out of this drama than should be? Does it make political sense for any Democrat to prevent even debate on this bill even for Democrats who may eventually vote against it? To not allow debate would be a slap in the face of the Dem base and no Dem officeholder would do that, would they? We know that everything in DC and health care has to have the feel of some drama, but this feels like much ado about nothing. If Reid and the Obama White House can't even get the bill on to the floor, then there are much BIGGER problems in the Dem party than unity on health care. But if they do pass it, it is historic.
*** Land of Lincoln: That said, for the vote tomorrow, we’ve noted the moderates to watch: Ben Nelson (NE), Mary Landrieu (LA), and Blanche Lincoln (AR). But Lincoln is perhaps the most intriguing. Nelson and Landrieu have seemed to indicate their support at least for a cloture vote since their meeting with Reid two days ago. Remember, neither of them is up for re-election next year. But Lincoln is, and it’s been radio silence from her on her cloture vote. She’s really in a pressure cooker. Liberals are pushing for a primary challenge if she doesn’t support health care (something Republicans have to be salivating over) and the looks of a potentially competitive GENERAL election next year. Still, it would be a shock to see Lincoln kill this since she actually does have to worry about a primary challenge -- and she would have single-handedly have killed the prospects NOW for the health bill. By the way, Lincoln knows a little something about Dem primary challenges, she first got into Congress by challenging an incumbent member of her OWN party.
*** Welcome back, Mr. President: If President Obama turned on the nightly news at the White House after returning from his eight-day trip through Asia, he saw plenty of unwelcome news yesterday. Members of Congress were asking for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to resign from his job; students in California were protesting huge hikes in their tuition costs; in the morning, the nation’s aviation system nearly grinded to a halt after a router glitch; and women were confused about new mammogram guidelines -- the news of which Republicans seized on to throw a wrench into health-care reform. In short, it wasn’t a good day -- and hasn’t been really that good of a week -- for the White House. As for Geithner, it looks like he's becoming the whipping boy for frustrated members of Congress on the economy. Is this fair? Remember, this happened to John Snow, and then we got Hank Paulson.
*** Iran is key to watch: Regarding Obama’s trip to Asia, it looks like the C.W. is that he didn't get big things done. And he didn't. But the reality is that we won't know how successful this trip is for a little while. Near-term, it's about the push for sanctions against Iran. In fact, if the Obama administration gets Russia on board for tougher sanctions, and if China -- at a minimum -- decides to simply abstain and allow the U.S. to go forward with a tougher stance against Iran, then the C.W. on this trip and on the president's approach to foreign policy will shift back in his favor. While some want to pile on the president over Iran and say, "I told you so" regarding Iran walking away from the negotiating table, it's actually an opportunity for the president to show a stiff spine on a major national security issue. And if Russia does come aboard for truly tough sanctions, it would be an example of Obama's foreign policy doctrine of engagement and respect with quasi allies/rivals working. That's not bad domestic politics either.
*** What we learned at the RGA…: What did we learn at the Republican Governors Association meeting here that concluded last night? That Republicans feel VERY good about the overall political environment and their prospects for next year's midterm elections. That no one here really wanted to talk about Sarah Palin, her new book, or her political prospects. That RGA Chair Haley Barbour is personally backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the gubernatorial primary and wants Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to stay in the Senate. And that embattled Mark Sanford could attend the meeting and (almost!) not be spotted by the political press corps.
*** … And what we didn’t: What did we NOT learn? If the current political winds will continue to stay at the GOP's back. If Palinism will end up trumping McDonnellism, or vice versa. If anyone in attendance -- Pawlenty, Jindal, Barbour, someone else? -- will end up being the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee. And if anyone else picked up on the irony of the RGA airing this "Saturday Night Live" skit to kick off its panel looking at the 2010 midterms.
*** White House pushes back against stimulus criticism: Following up on our note yesterday about the Obama White House losing the P.R. war over the stimulus, an administration official said he’s standing by the estimated number of "jobs created or saved" by the stimulus act, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. "The data debate has been frustrating, but it's a side show," said Ed Deserve, adviser to the president for Recovery Act Implementation, who took questions from reporters on a conference call. Deserve was following up on a hearing held yesterday on the House side, where the GAO reported on errors that were made in the administration's calculation that led to the claim that 640,000 jobs created as of Oct. 30 because of the stimulus. Deserve said the estimate is in line with those of outside economists, and repeated the claim that when both "direct, indirect, and induced" jobs were included, the number was 1 to 1.5 million jobs. Deserve’s comments came after Earl Devaney, the government watchdog overseeing the stimulus, said he couldn’t vouch for the administration’s 640,000 figure.
*** A 'profile' in irony? Sarah Palin showed she's not afraid of wading into racial politics. In a two-day stretch this week, she 1) criticized John McCain for not going after Obama harder on Jeremiah Wright and 2) advocated for profiling. "I say, profile away," Palin told the Weekly Standard, adding, "Such political correctness could be our downfall." Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen, hardly liberals, see it differently. Gates yesterday: “[I]n a nation as diverse as the United States the last thing we need to do is start pointing fingers at each other, particularly when there's no basis in fact for it." This is usually tricky terrain for politicians. But Palin has decided to bull through the issue. Yet advocacy for profiling -- which calls for drawing on broad stereotypes of whole groups of people -- is somewhat ironic coming from Palin. Consider her annoyance with her perception that Katie Couric was stereotyping her for asking her about which newspapers she reads. She told Oprah: "Are you kidding me? Are you really asking me?' To me, it was in the context of, ‘Do you read? How do you stay informed, you're way up there?' It seemed like she was discovering this nomadic tribe, a member of a tribe from some Neanderthal cave in Alaska, asking me, ‘How do you stay in touch with the real world?'" And then there's her criticism over the Newsweek cover, which plenty, including Democrats have criticized. But it seems she wants to be against political correctness unless it involves herself.
*** Also today: Vice President Joe Biden turns 67 years old. And an exhibit of the late Tim Russert's office opens at the Newseum in DC.
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“Growing discontent over the economy and frustration with efforts to speed its recovery boiled over Thursday on Capitol Hill in a wave of criticism and outright anger directed at the Obama administration,” the Washington Post writes. “President Obama's allies in the Congressional Black Caucus, exasperated by the administration's handling of the economy, unexpectedly blocked one his top priorities, using a legislative maneuver to postpone the approval of financial reform legislation by a key House committee.”
“Two buildings away, at a session of the Joint Economic Committee, Republicans escalated their attacks on Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, including a call for his resignation.”
In addition, per the Wall Street Journal: “The House Financial Services Committee voted, 43-26, to approve a measure sponsored by Texas Republican Ron Paul, vociferously opposed by the Fed, that would direct the congressional Government Accountability Office to expand its audits of the Fed to include decisions about interest rates and lending to individual banks. The Fed says the provision threatens its ability to make monetary policy without political interference.”
"Geithner is coming under new pressure from conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats to resign," The Hill writes. "Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas) this week joined a small group of lawmakers publicly calling for Geithner to step down. Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, who is challenging Sen. Chris Dodd (D) for Senate in Connecticut, has made Geithner’s resignation a campaign issue. Geithner was forced to defend himself Thursday at a public hearing on Capitol Hill during which he was pointedly asked by Brady to resign."
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Per the Washington Post, the Congressional Budget Office said the public option “opt out” in Reid’s bill “would have relatively little impact on the current system, would charge ‘somewhat higher’ premiums than its private competitors and would draw only about 4 million subscribers. The decision to permit states to opt out of the public plan is partly to blame for the Reid proposal's lack of reach, as it would leave about a third of the people in the country without access to the program, according to the CBO's calculation. But even the national plan approved by the House this month would attract only about 6 million people, the nonpartisan group has said, primarily because it would lack the tools to keep costs and premiums down.”
The New York Times looks at the abortion issue in the Senate bill. "Under the House bill, federal money could not be used 'to pay for any abortion or to cover any part of the costs of any health plan that includes coverage of abortion,' except in case of rape or incest or if the life of a pregnant woman was in danger. Thus, a plan that received federal subsidies for low- and moderate-income people could not offer abortion coverage. Under the Senate bill, insurers would not be required or forbidden to cover abortion. But, the measure says, in every part of the country, the government would have to ensure that there is at least one plan that covers abortion and at least one that does not."
More: "The secretary of health and human services would decide whether a proposed new government insurance plan would cover abortion. In general, if insurers cover abortion, they could not use federal money to pay for the procedure. They could use only subscriber premiums and would have to keep the money separate from subsidies received from the federal government."
The New York Times covers yesterday’s congressional hearing looking at the Fort Hood shootings. “A Senate committee on Thursday opened the first public hearings into the Fort Hood shootings, with several legislators asserting that the incident in which 13 people were killed was a terrorist attack by a homegrown extremist who may have slipped past law enforcement and military authorities. Hours later at a Pentagon news conference, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced that former Army Secretary Togo West and a former chief of naval operations, Vernon Clark, would lead a broad Pentagon review of the circumstances surrounding the shootings in which 13 people were killed and 43 were injured.”
Covering the RGA meeting, Salon’s Mike Madden wonders if the GOP talk about a comeback is just, well, talk. “So what if the only thing voters like less than the Democrats in Congress might be the Republicans in Congress? Who cares if the GOP has been reduced to a rump minority in the House and Senate, left on the sidelines with not much more to do than root for Democrats to fight among themselves? In politics, what matters is momentum, and right now, Republicans -- and quite a few Democrats, especially in private -- think they have it.”
Sarah Palin reiterated her support for candidates like the Conservative Party's Doug Hoffman, who ran for a special election in New York's 23rd congressional district. She added, however, that she believes advocates of a breakaway third party are "naive."
"Ideally, sure, a third party or an independent party would be able to soar and thrive and put candidates forth and have them elected, but I don't think America is ready for that," Palin said earlier this week on conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh's show. Palin's media blitz has taken her to, among other outlets, Limbaugh's show and Christian Broadcasting Network White House Correspondent David Brody's webcast.
The Alaskan ex-governor praised the efforts of Hoffman, saying his campaign "proved that an American without that resume, that machine backing, can truly make a difference in an election like this." She also gave her advice for Republican successes in 2010 and beyond: "It's all about jobs, it's all about Americans who are hurting right now and what those solutions are that are so obvious," she said. She blamed the Obama administration for not discussing such "common sense solutions," but also had criticism for her own party: "On the Republican side, Republicans need to be bolder about it. Independents need to be bolder about it."
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COLORADO: Denver Post columnist Mike Rosen outlined a GOP policy platform drafted by several Republican gubernatorial candidates yesterday, calling it the “Contract for Colorado:” “The agenda [is] modeled on the winning reform recipes of Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell in their New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races… and reassure[s] the Republican base, while specific, practical, and inclusive enough to attract swing-voting independents in the state.” Rosen also writes that the plan intended to give presumptive GOP nominee Scott McInnis “something concrete to run on rather than merely running against [incumbent governor Bill] Ritter.”
“McInnis said he hopes the agenda -- perhaps the first time the GOP has crafted such a unified message in Colorado -- will unify the party and appease Republican factions that have been hesitant to embrace him. ‘The reality of it is: A party can split and take second place or a party can unify and take the governor's seat," McInnis said. "I've never seen the message of unification so strong among Republicans. They're tired of losing.’"
CONNECTICUT: Colleen Flanagan, state Democratic party spokeswoman, lashed out at Rob Simmons for injecting politics into questions about where terrorism suspects should be tried. Yesterday, Simmons, a Republican running against U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, put out a press release attacking Dodd for voting to allow civilian trials for 9/11 attackers in the U.S. "Rob Simmons and his mentors, George Bush and Karl Rove, have played politics with terrorism and this country's national security since the moment 9/11 occurred," Flanagan said via email. "It's disgusting and it doesn't merit further response."
IOWA: Former Gov. Terry Branstad said Iowa voters’ early preference of him over Gov. Chet Culver is helping his fundraising as the longtime Republican governor begins cranking up his campaign operation. “In 10 contested elections, two primaries and eight general elections, I’ve never been 24 points ahead before,” Branstad said. The Register’s Iowa Poll, taken last week, showed Branstad with the support of 57 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Gov. Chet Culver, a first-term Democrat.
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Sarah Palin released the second leg of her “Going Rogue” book tour yesterday, including a stop in Fort Hood.
“I'm looking forward to seeing everyone in every stop on the tour, but I'm especially looking forward to meeting our brave men and women in uniform at Fort Hood,” Palin said on her Facebook page. “I'm joining the efforts of many others by donating my royalties from the book sales during our stop at Fort Hood to the families of the victims whose lives have been forever changed by the tragic events of November 5th. I am humbled to be able to join the larger effort called ‘Community Response to 11/5,’ which was established by the Central Texas-Fort Hood Chapter of the Association of the US Army (AUSA).”
Yesterday, Palin said, "I think that there were massive warning flags that were missed all over the place and I think that it was quite unfortunate that, to me, it was a fear of being politically incorrect to not -- I am going to use the word -- profile this guy -- profile in the sense of finding out what his radical beliefs were. … Now, because I used the word 'profile' I am going to get clobbered tomorrow morning. The liberals, their heads are just going to be spinning. They're going to say 'she is radical, she is extreme.' "
Palin did not specify what she meant by “profile,” widely and generally believed to be a reference to focusing on groups of people by race, religion or otherwise. There certainly was seemingly enough evidence that Army Major Nadal Hasan was not a competent psychiatrist without “profiling” him. But, NPR reported, that Hasan’s religion may have been a factor in him being passed – despite his poor marks. And the FBI has said it was aware of Hasan’s communications with a radical Imam prior to the shooting, but deemed them not necessarily evidence of so-called radical views.
Hardly “liberals,” Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen gave differing views than Palin on profiling.
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From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell and Domenico Montanaro
In the Reid healthcare bill, there is a new 5% tax on elective cosmetic surgery.
Today, Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn, who is a physician and staunchly opposed to this legislation, suggested on the Senate floor that a woman would be taxed if she had breast reconstruction surgery following cancer.
"In this bill is a 5% tax on cosmetic surgery,” Coburn said. “Just yesterday -- the day before yesterday, U.S. preventive task forces, services, recommended because it's not cost effective that women under 50 not get mammograms unless they have risk factors. Well, you tell that to the thousands of women who were diagnosed with breast cancer lat last -- last year under 50 with a mammogram. You tell them it's not cost effective. Also in this bill is a 5% tax on the breast reconstruction surgery after they had a mastectomy. They're going to tax having your breast rebuilt after your breast is taken off because it is elective plastic surgery. It is elective cosmetic surgery. We're going to have a tax on it because we've taxed elective cosmetic surgery. We're in trouble as a nation because we've taken our eye off the ball."
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From NBC’s Courtney Kube
Despite the fact that Germany decided to extend their current commitment in Afghanistan earlier this week, the German Defense Minister said today that they will not commit to any additional troops there until after President Obama announces his decision on the way forward in Afghanistan.
After a meeting with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates today, German Minister of Defense Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg told reporters at the Pentagon that he is "eagerly" waiting for "a new concept and new strategic ideas from our American friends."
Before the Germans commit any additional troops, Guttenberg said that they also need "a clear commitment by the Afghan government."
"We need more than just words; we need action" by the Afghan government, Guttenberg said.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
CEDAR CREEK, Tex. -- Given that this year's Republican Governors Association meeting is taking place here in Texas, reporters today asked RGA Chairman Haley Barbour, the governor of Mississippi, to weigh in on the Rick Perry-vs.-Kay Bailey Hutchison GOP primary for Texas governor.
Barbour said that the RGA doesn't take sides in primaries, but that he was personally backing Perry. "I personally think Gov. Perry should be re-elected," he said.
And then he added this: "I hope Sen. Hutchison will stay in the United States Senate for the rest of my life."
Asked why he supported Perry over Hutchison, Barbour replied, "I thought he deserved re-election." He then went on to say: "I would hate to lose Kay Bailey in the Senate."
When asked if he has talked to Hutchison about staying in the Senate, Barbour responded simply, "She and I have talked."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
The New York Times reported that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy," citing "people who have been told of the decision."
The official word out of Giuliani world is non-committal.
"Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it. When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own," Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said in a statement. And that's all she would say.
That is not the kind of statement that will end speculation, particularly in the New York media market.
Sources say the state Republican Party has not been told of any decision by Giuliani.
Nick Ayers, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, tells First Read that he's not surprised that Giuliani would decide not to run for governor. Giuliani's candidacy was always a longshot, he said.
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