September 2006 - Posts
Special to First Read from National Journal's The Hotline
It’s been a long 48 hours for the House Republican leadership. It all started when the media began reporting on the inappropriate email and instant message exchanges between now-ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) and an underage teenager..... The timeline of what Speaker Dennis Hastert knew and when he knew it, has seemed to change throughout the last 48 hours. Late 9/30 p.m., the Speaker’s office released a fairly detailed explanation of when Speaker’s office first learned of the complaint. But the explanation doesn’t answer every question.
For instance, clearly, Foley’s actions raised enough alarm bells that a number of investigating actions were started late last year and in early spring. In addition, ABC News reports that the 16-year-old page had been warned to watch out for Foley, suggesting that the congressman's behavior was an open secret among the folks that ran the page program. If this is true, it implies Foley’s behavior was more systematic and known..... What isn’t clear is why no one other than the clerk of the House and GOP Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL), the member in charge of the Page program, directly spoke with Foley.
More importantly, and this question may decide whether Republicans retain control of the House, how thorough was the investigation conducted by the clerk and Shimkus? What exactly did that "investigation" discover and/or conclude? It only took ABC News about a day to go from knowing nothing to knowing, well, too much about the contact Foley had with underage pages.....
Read carefully the details Hastert’s office released regarding how they investigated the allegation. Is it really the regular practice of the House GOP leadership staff to keep the Speaker out of the loop when it comes to questionable conduct by Members?
Hastert is notoriously slow when encouraging a wounded member of his party to get going. From Tom DeLay to Bob Ney, Hastert never seems willing to push members into what needs to be done.....
It’s important to note that when the House GOP leadership first apparently learned of something amiss with Foley and a page, the GOP leadership team was in flux..... Did the House GOP leadership vacuum that was created by DeLay’s departure lead to a situation where no one was calling the political shots? And did that sense of chaos create anxiety, preventing Republicans from taking the steps necessary to protect these underage pages?
No doubt, every member of the House GOP leadership that knew of this Foley problem before this week regrets not pursuing a more thorough investigation. But isn’t the argument Democrats will now make when reviving the "culture of corruption" tagline (or even a "culture of arrogance of power" tagline) is that the House GOP leadership just doesn’t have the capacity or the intellectual curiosity to investigate questionable activity, whether it involves a member of their own caucus or more serious public policy concerns like the war in Iraq?
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Huma Zaidi
In a news conference today, Senate Democratic leaders lashed out against the Bush Administration, as they latched onto claims made in Bob Woodward's book "State of Denial" -- such as the Administration ignoring pleas that more troops were needed in Iraq to quell the insurgency there. These Democrats also renewed calls for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to be fired. Said Carl Levin, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee: "The President has got to end his stubborn insistence that things are going just fine in Iraq." And said Minority Leader Harry Reid: "It's time for the misleading, the mistakes, the misconduct to end."
But at his briefing today, White House press secretary Tony Snow compared Woodward's book to cotton candy, in that it "kind of melts on contact." He said allegations that the Administration ignored advice from military commanders are untrue. "The reason for not going with the suggestion is that the Generals and the military commanders had suggested a different course of action. But on the other hand, if you take a look at the arc of troops during that year, guess what happened? More troops were added during the course of the year," Snow said. "The President has also made it clear that he continues to respond, as Commander-in-Chief, to developments on the ground and to requests from commanders," he added.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Florida Rep. Mark Foley (R) has announced that he's resigning from the House, effective today. The motivation: The recent release of personal e-mails he sent to a male teenage page on Capitol Hill. Foley in his statement: "I am deeply sorry and I apologize for letting down my family and the people of Florida I have had the privilege to represent." Foley's district includes Martin County, St. Lucie County, and Palm Beach County. President Bush received 54% there in 2004, and Foley himself was re-elected with 68% that year.
The campaign of Tim Mahoney (D), who is challenging Foley for his seat, says their understanding of state election law is that the GOP can basically choose a replacement for Foley in that his name will stay on the November ballot, but the party will get to decide who receives his votes. So does this sudden shake-up improve Democrats' chances of winning this Republican-leaning seat? It's unclear today, though in the current political climate, any change could wind up having repercussions at the polls. What's for sure is that until now, national Republicans never expected to have to worry about this seat.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Thirty-nine days from election day... After a week of minor bombshells, we're wondering if maybe October came a little early this year as far as surprises go. From a political standpoint, the first reports on the National Intelligence Estimate gave Democrats ammunition for their effort to keep the public's attention focused on the unpopular war in Iraq and their argument that it has made America less safe. The Bush Administration's declassification of further portions of the NIE helped them counter Democrats' arguments. Bob Woodward's forthcoming book has the Administration back on the defensive by charging that they've been hiding the truth about the situation in Iraq.
And now Jack Abramoff has reared his head again, to the possible detriment of the GOP, via a House committee report on White House contacts with the lobbyist. (Which means that scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. William Jefferson is about to be thrust back into the spotlight by countering Republicans again.)
On the one hand, the impact of White House and GOP's month-long push to make fighting terrorism the central issue of the midterm elections has been blunted somewhat. On the other hand, five and a half weeks before election day, Democrats are expending a lot of energy debating Republicans on Republicans' chosen turf. From the bully pulpit that has served him well throughout September, President Bush himself is now calling Democrats "the party of cut and run." His comment yesterday was striking given that he had previously refrained from using this GOP catch-phrase which oversimplifies the Democratic position on the war in Iraq (while at the same time, Republicans also like to point out that Democrats don't have a unified position on the war). Also up until yesterday, Bush always made a point of saying he doesn't question Democrats' patriotism.
At this writing, the President is about to give his first big speech on the war on terror since his address to the United Nations last Wednesday. The speech was added to his schedule two days ago, probably in anticipation of having successes to tout on the legislative front as Congress prepares to leave town, including the defense spending bill and the detainee trial and treatment bill. After the Senate passed the latter bill last night, the House is expected to approve it today and send it to Bush for his signature. The House has also approved the NSA warrantless wiretapping bill, though it's not expected to clear Congress before they depart and its chances for passage during the lame-duck session are uncertain. Bush's audience this morning -- again, a military one -- will be the Reserve Officers Association.
A House Government Reform Committee report being released today finds that Abramoff had 66 contacts with White House staff over a three-year period in Bush's first term, including 10 contacts with Karl Rove, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports. In all, Abramoff and his associates at lobbying firm Greenberg Traurig had 485 contacts with the White House from January 2001 to March 2004, 345 of which were in person. Half of the face-to-face meetings involved meals or drinks. The data comes from documents supplied to the committee by Greenberg Traurig, and offers great detail about the number and nature of the contacts gleaned from billing records and e-mails.
And we've got two midterm election notes for you: Sunday brings the next Meet the Press Senate debate -- this time between Sen. Mike DeWine (R) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) of Ohio. The latest media poll in the state shows Brown leading DeWine by five points. And on Monday morning, we'll be releasing the first battery of statewide polls conducted for MSNBC and polling partner McClatchy Newspapers by the opinion research firm Mason-Dixon. The polls will cover the top Senate races, as well as the California governor's race. Check MSNBC.com on Monday morning for your horse-race fix.
Got calendar?
Summing up President Bush's striking speech in Birmingham, AL yesterday, the Los Angeles Times says that in addition to the "cut and run" line, he "angrily accused Democratic leaders... of misrepresenting" the NIE, "said they favored policies that would increase the nation's vulnerability to terrorist attacks," and "singled out statements by... the top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees, although he quoted neither by name."
Among the details in Woodward’s new book, the New York Times says, is that the White House ignored a plea in November 2003 from a top adviser in Iraq that more US soldiers were needed there to stop the insurgency.
On the detainee bill, the Financial Times reminds us that the Bush Administration had appeared to be on the defensive on the issue earlier this summer, but that a "turning point came on September 6, when Mr Bush reframed the debate about tribunals by announcing plans to transfer 14 high-profile al-Qaeda suspects... to Guantanamo Bay to await trial. The move transformed an abstruse legal debate into a more personalised one about how to treat those accused of being behind the worst terrorist attack on US soil."
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Bloomberg points out, "None of the goals [Bush] set out in his January 2005 State of the Union address -- overhaul of the Social Security system, restructuring the tax code, reshaping medical-malpractice law -- was achieved. Bush's proposed overhaul of immigration laws is in limbo because of divisions between House and Senate Republicans." Also, the GOP Hill leadership was dealt a few blows: House Majority Leader Tom DeLay resigned and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist stumbled.
The Los Angeles Times says the House GOP's border-fence bill might be approved by the Senate before the session ends -- or it might not. A last-minute push to add a guest-worker program for agricultural workers to the bill could derail it. The "move creates a dilemma for Frist, eager for victories to counter criticism of a GOP 'do-nothing Congress.' It also highlights the long-standing tension over immigration that is coming to a head in these waning days of the 109th Congress."
Along with his committee's report, House Government Reform chair Tom Davis (R) released a statement last night "portraying Abramoff’s efforts to lobby the Bush administration as largely ineffective," Roll Call says. "Davis also pointed out that Abramoff’s billing records and e-mail exchanges do not mean that events unfolded as he claimed to either his firm or his clients." Meanwhile, a "summary prepared for Democratic leaders by staffers for" ranking member Rep. Henry Waxman "stated that the information provided by the Abramoff documents may show wrongdoing on the part of top White House officials." Top Bush officials "have denied having any close relationship with Abramoff."
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The Dow industrials closed yesterday at 11718.45, "their second-highest close on record and short of a closing level investors haven't seen since Jan. 14, 2000, when the blue-chip average closed at 11722.98 at the height of the dot-com bubble."
In an interview yesterday with the Wall Street Journal, Bush "said he would speed up his alternative-energy push during the remainder of his term with new spending focused on easing bottlenecks that are slowing the spread of ethanol in the market." He also "also damped speculation that his administration is exploring a major shift in global-warming policy." And he "said he is interested in talking with" top auto industry executives "after the November elections, but he appeared to hold out little hope that the federal government would take the lead in relieving the companies of their huge legacy costs for retired workers."
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The Dow industrials closed yesterday at 11718.45, "their second-highest close on record and short of a closing level investors haven't seen since Jan. 14, 2000, when the blue-chip average closed at 11722.98 at the height of the dot-com bubble."
In an interview yesterday with the Wall Street Journal, Bush "said he would speed up his alternative-energy push during the remainder of his term with new spending focused on easing bottlenecks that are slowing the spread of ethanol in the market." He also "also damped speculation that his administration is exploring a major shift in global-warming policy." And he "said he is interested in talking with" top auto industry executives "after the November elections, but he appeared to hold out little hope that the federal government would take the lead in relieving the companies of their huge legacy costs for retired workers."
"Bush is delivering two years early on his promise to cut the federal budget deficit below 2 percent of gross domestic product.," Bloomberg reports. But: "The achievement may be short-lived because the deficit will widen again in the coming year." Why? "Tax receipts, which were running more than 10 percent ahead of last year for the entire first half of 2006, have since slowed."
The Des Moines Register reports that several middle-class tax breaks will expire at the end of 2005, and “their renewal is stuck in an election-year standoff.” Even if Congress does take action before leaving town, it may be too late for the breaks to make it onto the IRS tax forms.
The fact that his fundraiser for her was going to be closed to the media already suggested that perhaps she didn't want to appear in public with him. But Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) wound up skipping her Bush-headlined fundraiser in Ohio altogether yesterday. As reported here yesterday afternoon, Pryce told NBC's Viqueira that she had to "stand [Bush] up" or else her Democratic opponent "will make mincemeat out of me if I don't" vote on the NSA bill. Her absence seemed to come as a surprise to the White House. Pryce spokesman Rob Nichols later told NBC's Rosiland Jordan that Pryce made the decision to stay on the Hill to vote on the NSA bill because with every Democrat voting against it (he said), Pryce felt her vote was needed to ensure its passage. Nichols also tried to suggest that Pryce isn't worried about whether her opponent might try to make hay out of her decision to stay in Washington because she was doing her job and wasn't trying to hide from anyone.
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USA Today says most members of Congress seeking higher office this year are having trouble because of their ties to Washington and, if they're Republican, to President Bush.
One of the overlooked but potentially competitive Senate races this cycle is in ARIZONA, where incumbent Jon Kyl (R) leads challenger Jim Pederson (D) by just single digits, according to some recent polls. Pederson, in Washington yesterday, briefly chatted with First Read about his race. On how he is withstanding charges from Kyl's camp that his support of the Senate immigration bill is supporting "amnesty:" "I've got to believe we're smarter than that, to withstand buzzwords like that... Usually the tough talkers have something to hide." And in this case, he says, it's Congress' failure to do anything on immigration. And on Kyl using popular Sen. John McCain in his TV ads: "Maybe we should point out the differences between John McCain and Jon Kyl" -- on global warming, immigration, stem cells, and the budget deficit.
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So far, Warner has been one of the few potential Democratic oh-eighters who hasn't stumped for Connecticut Senate nominee Ned Lamont (D) after his primary victory in August (although Warner did put out a statement after Lamont won and wrote him a check). But yesterday, Warner's PAC sent out an e-mail entitled "Washington Needs Ned Lamont." The e-mail praised Lamont's entrepreneurial approach to politics ("That's the approach we took in Virginia -- where we reformed the way government does business to achieve long term savings, and reformed our tax code") and his call for a withdrawal from Iraq ("I agree that we need a plan to get out of Iraq... The current Republican leadership isn't making us safer").
With an easy cruise to re-election ahead of her, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) said yesterday she'll campaign for other candidates in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Florida in the last weeks before the election, reports the AP.
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From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
President Bush ratcheted up his rhetoric against Democrats at his fundraiser for Alabama Gov. Bob Riley in Birmingham today, in that he actually called the Democratic party "the party of cut and run." Until now, Bush had refrained from using this GOP catch-phrase which oversimplifies the Democratic position on the war in Iraq (particularly since Republicans also like to point out how Democrats don't have a unified position on the war). Bush has, up until now, made a point of saying he doesn't question their patriotism. Democrats, for their part, have been stepping up their charge that Bush and the GOP want to "stay the course" in Iraq.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate is expected to pass the compromise bill on detainee trials and treatment within the next half-hour or so...
From NBC's Rosiland Jordan
White House spokesperson Emily Lawrimore says of Rep. Deborah Pryce's now anticipated absence from her own fundraiser with the President in Ohio later today, "As Congress concludes its legislative session, President Bush understands that Representative Pryce has a responsibility to stay in Washington to vote on important legislation that will strengthen our national security."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
It's not totally unheard of for a member of Congress to have to skip his or her own fundraiser, even one with a high-profile guest, because of votes on the floor. Even so, it's notable that Rep. Deborah Pryce says she'll have to miss her own fundraiser with President Bush in New Albany, OH later today because she has to stick around the Hill and vote on the NSA warrantless surveillance bill. She said she has to "stand [Bush] up" or else her Democratic opponent "will make mincemeat out of me if I don't " vote on the NSA bill. Pryce is facing the toughest re-election campaign of her tenure due to the particularly bad climate for Republicans in Ohio, and her event with Bush was already scheduled to be closed to the media.
Her absence may come as a surprise to the White House, at least judging from spokesman Tony Snow's comments to the traveling press earlier today, in which he said the event is expected "to raise $500,000 for the reelection campaign and Ohio Victory 2006, which is a state party get out of the vote effort. Approximately 300 attendees." No mention of Pryce having to skip it.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty days out... President Bush meets with the Senate GOP Conference this morning to talk about "shared priorities" and congratulate the lawmakers on this past session. Chances are he'll urge them to pass his two legislative priorities, the NSA warrantless surveillance bill and the detainee trial and treatment bill. The latter was passed by the House yesterday and is expected to get the Senate's approval today, but the former may be stalled until a lame-duck session, at least. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Vice President Cheney will join Bush at the meeting. Meanwhile, the politics of disclosure remains a running theme with the Bush White House, and not just with the National Intelligence Estimate, which they're declining to release in full.
After his meeting on the Hill today, Bush visits Alabama for a couple of events that might not seem quite so urgent now as they once did: a briefing on energy issues, followed by a statement, and a fundraiser for GOP Gov. Bob Riley, whom analysts expect to win re-election fairly easily. The Riley fundraiser takes place at a convention complex in Birmingham and is open to the media. Riley campaign spokesman Josh Blades tells First Read that they expect anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 people to attend, but won't offer an estimate of how much they'll raise.
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Bush played peacemaker over dinner last night with Presidents Karzai and Musharraf. The Washington Times says things appeared tense when the three leaders faced the press. "More than two hours after the dinner was scheduled to end, the White House said the three leaders had shared their views... But when asked by reporters how long the dinner had lasted, White House spokesman Nicole Guillemart would not say."
The "cherry-picking" debate continues over the NIE as the White House yesterday refused to release the rest of it, "saying that doing so would jeopardize the lives of agents who gathered the information. Press secretary Tony Snow said releasing the full report... would also risk the nation's ability to keep secret its U.S. intelligence-gathering methods and 'compromise the independence' of those charged with analyzing intelligence."
The New York Times says the release of the NIE “has threatened” the White House’s plans to seize on national security this week. “If anything this week, the back-and-forth between the parties - on the intelligence report, on the bills and on the war itself - seemed to produce at best a muddled result, rather than the sharp contrast that the White House had sought.”
A new congressional report says the United States is spending nearly $2 billion a week in Iraq, which is "twice as much as in the first year of the conflict three years ago and 20 percent more than last year," reports the Boston Globe. Per the report, "a major factor in the growth of war spending is the result of a dramatic rise in 'investment costs,' or spending needed to sustain a long-term deployment of American troops."
The Washington Post says of the House vote to approve the detainee legislation yesterday, "Republicans hope to campaign on the bill as proof of their party's tough stand against terrorists. Many congressional Democrats decided to swallow their misgivings and vote for the bill to avoid being portrayed as less than vigilant against suspects captured in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere."
The part of the bill that "worries advocates" most is the "one stating that 'no court, justice, or judge shall have jurisdiction to hear or consider an application for a writ of habeas corpus filed by or on behalf of an alien detained by the United States who has been determined by the United States to have been properly detained as an enemy combatant or is awaiting such determination,'" writes the Boston Globe.
The Chicago Tribune is the latest to write how former President Clinton’s “white-hot, finger-wagging interview” on FOX has thrust him into the midterm elections, “just as the Republicans appeared to be erasing some healthy Democratic advantages. For some Democrats, that's just what they would like to see... How far Clinton might be able to carry his party, however, is an open question.”
Sen. John Kerry (D) gives a speech on national security at Johns Hopkins' School of Advanced International Studies this morning. Per his office, he'll talk about "the need to redeploy from Iraq, refocus on Afghanistan, and... how central America’s moral authority is to winning the war on terror. Within that context, Kerry will discuss the Senate's debate on torture, arguing that 'there can be no compromise on torture, it is not who we are as a country' and will say that the compromise bill before the Senate does not go far enough when it comes to protecting American troops."
Democrats touted their military veteran House candidates yesterday. The AP notes that most of them don't have a real shot at winning, while the party counters that all they need is a few.
Leading with embattled Rep. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, the Financial Times looks at how moderate Republicans are an increasingly endangered breed in Congress. Losses by Johnson and her like-minded colleagues in the Northeast and elsewhere could cause "an ideological shift akin to the decline of the Democratic party in the south."
Former Sen. John Danforth (R), who's promoting a new book, is telling audiences that the "potency of the Christian right in the Republican Party is limited" and "that the political center has a future." An ordained Episcopal priest, Danforth in his book "describes religion as a divisive force in the United States today and accuses the religious right and its political supporters of creating a sectarian party." His critics note that he served in the Senate when Democrats held the majority.
House Democrats may have hoped to put a lid on leadership contests until after they see whether they're going to be in the majority next year, but the campaign for majority leader continues, and The Hill reports that liberal members "are not lining up behind Rep. Jack Murtha’s (D-Pa.) leadership candidacy in the numbers he had hoped despite his outspoken stance against the Iraq war."
Six years after the Florida recount, critics will argue at a House hearing today that the shift to electronic voting machines has actually increased the likelihood of another debacle, NBC's Chip Reid reports. Millions of Americans will use the machines in November for the first time, and critics say they want a paper trail, at the very least. Supporters of electronic voting say the machines are a vast improvement over hanging chads.
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The New York Times front-pages that Democrats now think a Senate takeover is realistic. But for that to happen, they have to hang onto New Jersey, which looks like a tougher challenge than it was two months ago.
Stuart Rothenberg suggests that some races Democrats are touting as close and competitive may not turn out to be that close, in reality, with early solidification of the Democratic vote just making them appear that way.
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NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams' interview with Elizabeth Edwards will air tonight on Nightly and tomorrow morning on TODAY.
The Republican National Committee has chosen to hold their 2008 convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, leaving Democrats, who were also considering the Twin Cities, to choose between New York and Denver. RNC co-chair Jo Ann Davidson yesterday rejected the idea that their surprise early announcement was really about laying claim to the Twin Cities before Democrats could, but the other cities on the RNC's list all had flaws. The party is probably hoping to give GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty a boost in his tight re-election race, as well as send a message about the importance they place on the Midwest. Democrats could send a similar message about the Mountain West by selecting Denver. Indeed, Colorado seems poised to give them a new governorship and a new House seat to tout in November. Or, they could fuel speculation about a (Hillary) Clinton presidential bid by choosing New York, which also will have a Democratic governor in Eliot Spitzer by 2008.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
In 1992, more than two dozen women -- most of them Democrats -- were newly elected to the House and Senate. That feat led to scores of news articles dubbing the election as the "Year of the Woman." This year, Emily's List, the Democratic group that promotes pro-choice female candidates, is arguing that the 14 female Democrats who are running for some of the most vulnerable GOP-held House seats in the country could be one of the keys to whether Democrats net the 15 seats needed to take back control of Congress. And this morning, Emily's List released polls suggesting that five of these candidates are in solid position to win their races.
Per these polls, Gabrielle Giffords (D) is leading Randy Graf (R), 54%-29%, in Arizona; Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D) is tied, 41%-41%, with Peter Roskam (R) in Illinois; Patty Wetterling (D) is down three points (but within the margin of error) to Michele Bachmann (R) in Minnesota; Darcy Burner (D) is nearly even with Rep. Dave Reichert (R) in Washington; and the same is true for Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in her race against Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). Emily's List president Ellen Malcolm said in a conference call that these polls were taken after September 11, when national surveys began to show an uptick in President Bush's approval rating. While Bush might be experiencing a bump, she noted, "it is not helping these [Republican] candidates. They are not moving up."
Although not disputing the poll numbers, House GOP campaign committee spokesman Carl Forti questions how many of these candidates will win in November. "I'm sure Emily's List will have the same kind of success with their candidates that they had in 2004," he tells First Read, referring to the Democrats' numerous losses that year.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
In announcing today, per the AP, that Minneapolis-St. Paul would be the site of their 2008 convention, Republicans certainly beat Democrats to the punch. The surprise of the announcement was more with the timing, not the locale. According to timetables laid out by both parties, Democrats were supposed to announce their convention first, by early next year. But with the Twin Cities arguably being the GOP's most desirable choice out of a short list that included New York (which was their site in 2004), Tampa (with the possibility of hurricanes in the summer), and Cleveland (a Democratic-friendly city), Republicans decided to stake their claim to the city now before Democrats did. Indeed, Democrats also had Minneapolis-St. Paul on their own short list, in addition to Denver and New York.
Today's announcement might also give a boost to Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who finds himself in a competitive contest for re-election this fall. While the selection of convention sites usually creates speculation about how it might impact potential presidential candidates -- example: John Kerry and Boston in 2004 -- the Twin Cities pick could help Pawlenty convince Minnesota voters that he can still deliver for the state.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
White House press secretary Tony Snow today discussed his new role as a fundraiser for GOP candidates and acknowledged he knows of no other press secretary from either party who has played that kind of political role raising money while also serving the public. These events will include closed fundraisers where the media -- and by extension, the public -- will not be informed of what he says to donors. Snow says this unusual dual role was discussed at great length with White House Counsel Harriet Miers and carries the president's approval.
Snow also says he is aware of the ethical issues and acknowledged that it's close to the line of what is appropriate for a public official. He claims his speeches will be "boring" and "not red meat" and that he will not be looking to pick political fights. He added he was asked to headline these events "months ago" and that he will be utilized by the party in his home state of Ohio -- but beyond that as well. He will do an event that is closed this evening. Another event Snow says he will do is for Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) of Ohio, who made headlines late last year when she suggested Marines don't cut and run when criticizing Rep. John Murtha (D).
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty-one days until election day... Declassified portions of the National Intelligence Estimate label the Iraq war as a "cause célèbre" but give the Administration some means to counter Democrats' attacks. Iraq and the war on terror remain in the spotlight, between the NIE, President Bush's working dinner with his counterparts from Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the new schedule addition of another presidential address for Friday. Yesterday morning, the White House announced that Bush will give another speech on the war on terror before another military audience, the Reserve Officers Association.
In addition to having favorable portions of the NIE to tout, the White House must be hoping to claim victory on Friday on a raft of security-related spending bills and legislation passed by a departing GOP-run Congress. But while the detainee trial and treatment bill seems likely to pass, the fate of legislation reaffirming the NSA warrantless surveillance program remains in flux; NBC's Mike Viqueira and Ken Strickland advise that final passage before Congress leaves town is unlikely. Congress may get to it in a lame-duck session -- or they may not. Also by Friday, the Administration's campaign to bolster public support for the unpopular war in Iraq by casting it as central to the WOT will be just shy of a month old.
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USA Today says that while the NIE paints a picture of a militant Islamic movement that may be spreading too quickly for the United States and its allies to keep up, "it also echoes President Bush's insistence on succeeding in Iraq."
But, per the New York Times, “nowhere in the assessment is any evidence to support Mr. Bush’s confident-sounding assertion this month in Atlanta that ‘America is winning the war on terror.’”
A Los Angeles Times analysis: “The escalating debate over national security reflects the belief among strategists in both parties that the terrorism issue works to their benefit. The question is how voters will interpret each side's arguments.”
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The House GOP leadership will brief the media this morning after their final closed-door conference meeting of the session. Majority Leader John Boehner does MSNBC's Hardball at 5:00 pm. The Democratic leadership will hold a press conference to slam the "rubber-stamp" Republican Congress.
The Los Angeles Times writes that the Senate might not be able to pass a bill -- already approved by the House -- that would make it a crime for someone to avoid parental consent laws by taking a minor to another state to have an abortion. “That would leave Republicans with few trophies to show their socially conservative base as they try to motivate voters in the final six weeks of the fiercely contested 2006 campaign.”
"House Republican leaders yesterday sought to invigorate their conservative base with election-year legislation aimed at protecting both the religious freedom of municipalities and a parent's role in a minor's abortion decision," reports the Washington Times. "The House passed a revised parental-notification bill and legislation limiting legal damages against cities and towns that lose lawsuits for violating the Constitution's ban on the establishment of religion."
The Wall Street Journal reports that an "array of former members of Congress and officials from Republican administrations dating to the 1970s" are saying they'd prefer to see Republicans lose the majority. Three reasons why: "Fiscal hawks are furious about the growth of the federal government. Conservative lawyers... are upset that Congress allowed President Bush to claim expansive powers to eavesdrop on American citizens and detain suspected militants without trial. Others say the war in Iraq is a costly diversion from the war on terror."
Hill Democrats, including presidential contenders and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd and House caucus chair Jim Clyburn, will hold a press conference today to blast the voter ID bill as a potential barrier to minority voting. Republicans have pushed the bill as a border security measure.
Three Senate Democrats, the New York Times says, introduced legislation yesterday that would reimburse states for printing paper ballots in case there are problems with electronic voting machines. “The proposal is a response to grass-roots pressures and growing concern by local and state officials about touch-screen machines. An estimated 40 percent of voters will use those machines in the election.”
MySpace.com is launching a voter-registration drive targeting young people.
In a two-parter, USA Today analyzes Census data and finds that "House districts held by Republicans are full of married people. Democratic districts are stacked with people who have never married... Most serious Democratic challenges this fall are in Republican-controlled House districts that have lower marriage rates." A second story says Democratic districts also contain fewer children than GOP districts, and that this "'fertility gap' is crucial to understanding the differences between liberals and conservatives... These childbearing patterns shape divisions over issues such as welfare, education and child tax credits."
The New York Times says that Democrats and Republicans began running at least 30 new campaign ads yesterday in House and Senate contests -- and just three of them were positive. “The result of the dueling accusations has been what both sides described on Tuesday as the most toxic midterm campaign environment in memory.” (But don’t we always say that?)
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The Washington Post uses Laura Bush's appearance for House candidate Joy Padgett (R) in Ohio yesterday to illustrate how Padgett has been hamstrung in her effort to replace retiring Rep. Bob Ney (R) by all the scandals plaguing Ney and other state Republicans, leaving Padgett with few high-profile party figures who can stump for her and hurting her chances of hanging onto an otherwise GOP-leaning seat.
Today, the parties involved in the CIA leak case against former Vice President Cheney chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby will face off in court over which classified documents Libby will be allowed to use to defend himself against charges of perjury and obstruction at his trial in January, per NBC's Joel Seidman. Libby's attorneys will battle with special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald before Judge Reggie Walton in the first of several closed hearings on the topic. Fitzgerald wants to limit the use of secret documents, believing that extensive use of classified materials at trial may in fact jeopardize national security and sink his case, Seidman says. He has already agreed that Libby should be able to use his own White House notes. But in order for Libby to make his case to a jury, he says he must rely on the daily morning briefings he and Cheney received from the CIA, which are classified. His trial is four months away; jury selection is scheduled to begin on January 17.
After the midterms but in time for the presidential election, the US Supreme Court will decide whether states can make labor unions ask members for permission before using their dues for political activities.
The cover story of the latest Atlantic Monthly examines how Sen. Hillary Clinton -- who came to Washington in the 1990s as an insurgent -- has turned herself into the consummate Washington player. “The story of Clinton’s Senate career mirrors that of her political life generally: a pattern of ambition, failure, study, and advancement… But it also points up her core liabilities as she prepares to move from the New York stage and back to the national one. Maybe one way to frame the question is this: Can a woman who has made herself small enough for the Senate be big enough for the country?”
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From NBC's Libby Leist and Ken Strickland
One day after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the New York Post that some of former President Clinton's assertions in his Sunday FOX interview were "flatly false," Rice spokesman Sean McCormack sought to downplay any "Rice v. Clinton" stories. McCormack told reporters that Rice was not trying to make it a "personal issue" and that she "was merely answering some questions that were put to her in one of a number of different interviews she had scheduled yesterday."
McCormack said Rice believes that both President Clinton and Bush tried to fight al Qaeda, but "those efforts were clearly not enough," and that the government under both before September 11 was not organized to "fight the war that we're fighting now." As for any possible motives behind Clinton's defense of his efforts and his attack on the Bush Administration, McCormack said the reporters should ask those who were involved, but that there was "clearly... a lot of emotion in that interview."
At a news conference today about the NIE, Sen. Hillary Clinton defended her husband's heated interview, saying he "did a great job in demonstrating that Democrats are not going to take these attacks." And she took at swing at the Administration: "I'm certain that if my husband and his national security team had been shown a classified report entitled 'Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States,' he would have taken it more seriously that history suggests it was taken by our current president and his national security team."
From NBC's Jennifer Colby
In six weeks, South Dakota voters will have the opportunity to decide whether an abortion ban, passed in the state earlier this year, should be overturned or upheld. The South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families ran a grassroots campaign to collect enough signatures to get the referendum on the November ballot. In a press briefing today, the group said the outcome of the vote will have a national impact and will determine if 14 other states considering similar bans will continue their efforts. "[The ban] awoke a sleeping giant," Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, said in the briefing. "Until people have lost something, which in this case is a fundamental right, they aren’t engaged. This sent the message out. The public doesn’t want this, they won’t allow it."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
President Bush has called for the declassification of the National Intelligence Estimate to take place "as quickly as possible." The "key judgments" portion will be released.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Even though political analysts are predicting the same outcome, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) told a group of Washington political reporters this morning that Democrats will hold control of a majority of governorships after the November elections (Republicans currently have a 28-22 edge). Although such a feat is largely symbolic, Richardson, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, said it would be "a barometer of a political sea change" taking place in the country. And he suggested it could usher in a host of policy changes in the states. "While the Congress is locked in gridlock ... the states are incubators for change."
Richardson added, "Voters are seeing governors as the real architects of fiscal responsibility" -- which was somewhat of a self-serving statement given that he is expected to run for president in 2008, and will obviously tout that kind of message in a White House bid. Asked about his presidential ambitions, Richardson replied, "I will make a decision early next year." Also asked about the possibility of competing against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, he said, "My view is that the party needs a spirited primary. I think we need a debate about the heart and soul of the party."
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The White House indicates that conversations are taking place about the possibility of declassifying the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate. The discussion seems to center on the Administration's view that a characterization of one paragraph is not enough context for a report containing "nine key judgments."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Six weeks until election day... President Bush's Iraq-is-central-to-the-war-on-terror events today are a meeting with President Karzai of Afghanistan and a joint press availability. Vice President Cheney yesterday touted Afghanistan as a "a rising nation -- with a democratically-elected government, a market economy, and millions of children going to school for the first time." Democrats argue that the Administration has paid too little attention to Afghanistan compared to Iraq -- "one-seventh" the attention, as former President Clinton said -- and that this has made the United States less safe.
Bush also raises money at another closed-press fundraiser at another private home, this time in Washington, for GOP efforts in Arkansas, Iowa and Wisconsin. Bush raised an estimated $1.7 million at his two events on the road yesterday. The White House pool reporter traveling with him yesterday sought a comment from Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine (R), one of the beneficiaries of Bush's events. "'I appreciate the president coming in,’ the senator said. 'He raised a lot of money. It’s always good to be with the president.’ Asked if it does him any good to appear with Mr. Bush, the senator repeated himself: 'It’s always good to be with the president.'"
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Former US Ambassador to Iraq turned National Intelligence Director John Negroponte addressed the NIE in a speech last night, arguing that "the jihad in Iraq is shaping a new generation of terrorist operatives, but rejected assertions, stemming from a leaked intelligence estimate, that the United States is at a greater risk of attack than it was in 2001," per the AP. Also yesterday, the bipartisan leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee urged President Bush to declassify the NIE so the public can decide on its contents for themselves.
Senate Armed Services ranking member Carl Levin and Sens. Jack Reed and Hillary Clinton will hold a press conference today "to discuss Administration failures in Iraq and the war on terrorism" in the wake of the reporting on the NIE, per the press release.
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"Home sales continued to decline last month, and the nation's median home price dropped for the first time in more than a decade... If their homes are worth less, consumers may feel less wealthy and therefore spend less on goods and services, a worrisome trend for the broader economy," says the Wall Street Journal.
President Bush touted his tax cuts at a tool manufacturing plant in Cincinnati yesterday, reviving his argument that the tax cuts have boosted the economy and tying them to the health of small businesses. "Some have advocated that we ought to raise taxes on individuals, which would take money out of the pockets of this company. If you take money out of the treasury of this company it means it's less likely somebody is going to find work... You hear people say, well, we're not going to extend the tax cuts -- that means they're going to raise taxes on the small business, just like this one. And it's bad economic policy and it will be bad for our country."
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The chief sponsors of the Senate's comprehensive immigration-reform bill, which Bush supports but which has been long stalled by opposition in the House, hold a press conference today with religious leaders to call for passage of the bill. While House Republicans call the Senate bill "Reid-Kennedy," the bill is the McCain-Kennedy bill. The White House has already acknowledged that they don't expect progress to be made on the Senate legislation anytime soon.
The Washington Post says Bush's closed-door events yesterday "underscored both his continued ability to attract donations and his continued unpopularity with much of the public."
The New York Times: “Republicans do not expect to be riding President Bush’s record to re-election this fall. But they are trying to ride his gravy train - as quietly as possible.”
Most of Connecticut's high-profile GOP lawmakers were absent from Bush's event yesterday, and because the event was closed-press, "there were no public opportunities Monday for photographs of Bush with candidates," says the Hartford Courant. Also: "Both privately and in front of GOP supporters at the fundraiser, Bush told [endangered moderate GOP Rep. Chris] Shays that he needs to turn up the political heat on Diane Farrell, his Democratic opponent."
Bloomberg looks at how Democratic candidates in several races are running on increased funding for embryonic stem-cell research, believing it "represents a rare instance when a divisive social issue cuts their way by creating a fissure among Republicans."
Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean has a grassroots events in Austin.
"House Republican leaders - with an assist from White House strategist Karl Rove - will mount one final push this week for the financial support of GOP lobbyists," says Roll Call. "Thursday afternoon at the Capitol Hill Club, Rove will join the top six House GOP leaders to address as many as 200 lobbyists... Several GOP sources said the leadership also would reiterate a warning against giving to Democrats."
"House GOP leaders cannot decide whether to hold leadership elections the week after the midterm elections," The Hill reports. "Their uncertainty is a sign of Republican unease and suggests that officeholders may postpone the contests for their jobs if the party suffers heavy losses."
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The Wall Street Journal looks at how the Senate playing field has changed over time and how Democrats have gotten most of the breaks, with the notable exception of New Jersey.
The Washington Times takes its turn reporting on an apparent shift in mood in Washington. "Some on both sides had expected an election debacle for the Republicans, driven by the Iraq war, high gas prices and the perception that a Republican-led Washington can neither shoot nor spend straight. Now those perceptions have changed."
The Chicago Tribune travels to ARIZONA's competitive House district to see how immigration is playing out in contests across the country. “With six weeks to go before the elections, Democrats and Republicans are embracing the complicated and emotionally powerful issue of immigration reform. But as the Republican-controlled Congress prepares to adjourn, most likely without passing an immigration bill, the debate is not playing out in a predictable way” -- as some Republicans find themselves divided on the issue, while some Democrats are taking a tough stance.
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From NBC's Ken Strickland
The White House-sponsored bill that would authorize the NSA's warrantless surveillance program has just taken significant step forward in the Senate. Republican Sens. Larry Craig, John Sununu, and Lisa Murkowski -- who had previously withheld their support from the bill -- have now signed on, cutting a deal with the White House for some changes in the legislation. It could also set the stage for a pre-election debate with Democrats on national security, something Republican operatives have been seeking.
While the support of Craig, Sununu, and Murkowski by no means ensures the bill's passage, it does unify their caucus. And unlike McCain's recent detainee bill which divided Republicans while Democrats happily stayed on the sidelines, this development draws a bold line between the parties. Most Democrats opposed the NSA bill as originally written.
Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has yet to announce how he plans to move forward with the NSA or detainee bills. Until then, Democrats are holding their fire and reading over the changes recently made to the bill. This is the last week of session for Congress before returning home for the midterm elections.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty-three days until election day... Having determined that fighting terrorism remains their party's best issue, the Bush Administration has worked strenuously over the past several weeks to cast their chief political liability, the war in Iraq, as central to the broader war on terror. This week, the effort includes meetings between President Bush and his counterparts in Afghanistan and Pakistan and burst of legislating by the GOP-run Congress before they leave for the rest of the cycle.
Up until now, Democrats have struggled in the face of Bush's use of the bully pulpit to keep the spotlight trained on Iraq by arguing that the war there has made the country less safe. Today, they'll kick off a series of Senate sessions examining the Administration's approach to the war; the first will feature three retired generals who served in Iraq and will blast Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Yesterday on FOX, former President Clinton offered a strident defense of his own record and critique of Bush's on fighting terrorism. But it's the recently released National Intelligence Estimate which is helping Democrats bring their argument full circle with its verdict that the war in Iraq is encouraging terrorism. More on this below.
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The AP on lawmakers' reactions yesterday: "Democrats hoped the report would undermine the GOP's image as the party more capable of handing terrorism as the campaign enters its final six-week stretch... Three leading Republicans -- Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky -- defended the war in Iraq and said it is vital that U.S. troops stay in the fight. None of them had seen the classified report, but were responding to press coverage of it."
The White House's view, per a spokesperson, "is that much of the radicals' rage at the United States and Israel goes back generations and is not linked to the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq." The White House is also arguing that the press accounts of the NIE didn't represent the entire document.
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Sen. John McCain (R) yesterday "named three measures that he said would no longer be allowed" under the deal struck on detainee legislation: "extreme sleep deprivation, forced hypothermia and 'waterboarding,' which simulates drowning. He also said other 'extreme measures' would be banned... McCain spoke after officials of Human Rights Watch and others pressed him to spell out ways in which the controversial draft legislation would constrain the CIA's actions."
Bob Novak wonders why the deal took so long, and puts most of the blame with the White House. “Such Republican disarray seven weeks before difficult midterm elections raises doubts of how much the Bush team has learned over six years. The terrorist tribunal dispute saw Bush take a no-compromise line, appearing to lose his temper publicly. With support in his own party disintegrating, the president had to compromise last week and seemed in retreat.”
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The Hartford Courant says of Bush's trip to Connecticut today, "It's hard to imagine how a scheduled visit by the president of the United States could have a lower profile. Only 30 of Connecticut's most elite VIPs got invitations, not by mail but discreet phone call. The luncheon... is so intimate that neither the White House nor state Republican Party will disclose where it will be or who is hosting it." The paper found out that the private home belongs to "L. Scott Frantz, a 46-year-old investment banker,... at his oceanfront estate in the Riverside section of Greenwich."
In Cincinnati, though DeWine will appear with Bush today, the Enquirer points out that DeWine's new TV ad says he's "ready, willing and able to work with Republicans and Democrats alike."
With just one week left before Congress adjourns, the New York Times lists its unfinished business: At best, just two of the 11 spending bills will pass; no budget was enacted; comprehensive immigration and lobbying overhauls won’t become law; and plans to cut the estate tax and increase the minimum wage failed. “‘It is disappointing where we are, and I think Republicans need to be upfront about this,’ said Representative Jack Kingston, Republican of Georgia and a member of the House leadership. ‘We have not accomplished what we need to accomplish.’”
And the Times has the latest report that Christian conservatives may not be as enthusiastic and engaged as Republicans hope.
A top House Democratic aide tells First Read that House Democrats plan this week to "cause some trouble on the floor to highlight the critical issues the do-nothing, rubber-stamp Congress are failing to address before they adjourn."
Bloomberg reports on House and Senate campaign committee chairs Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer's aggressive fundraising efforts, while Roll Call has Democratic operatives at 527 organizations fretting openly that a severe drop-off in funding from big donors between 2004 and 2006 will hamper their ability to affect races and gain seats this cycle.
CALIFORNIA gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides (D) said yesterday that if he wins, he’ll immediately call on President Bush to withdraw the state’s National Guard units from Iraq. “A spokeswoman for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign, Katie Levinson, said in a statement that Angelides' remarks ‘are just more of the same irresponsible political rhetoric.’”
On Saturday, incumbent Daniel Akaka (D) defeated challenger Rep. Ed Case, 55%-45%, in HAWAII’s Senate primary.
MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial contenders Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) and Deval Patrick (D) will face off in the first of several debates tonight. The Boston Globe says "tonight's forum could be a critical moment in the campaign... because it will be the voters' first chance to see the candidates side by side." Healey trails Patrick in a recent poll and has "the difficult task of asserting she has the experience to be governor, yet distancing herself from Romney-Healey administration missteps and disavowing Governor Mitt Romney's recent shift to the right."
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A series of presidential trial heats for the Des Moines Register finds that former New York City Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain are the top picks in Iowa. Both "sweep four Democratic rivals in a set of hypothetical matchups involving a total of eight candidates. However, former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina gives them a close battle in the Iowa Poll of likely voters." Top Democratic contender Sen. Hillary Clinton "goes winless against four Republicans. Democrats Edwards, 2004 presidential running mate John Kerry, and Vilsack each draw a 2-2 split."
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D), whose showing indicates he faces "stiff competition," was in New Hampshire this past week, where he connected with voters, the Register notes.
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Ed Markey (D) of Massachusetts is not a fan of the compromise reached by Republicans on the treatment and trial of detainees. Markey calls it "legal mumbo jumbo" designed to "obscure the fact that the CIA will continue to be allowed to use torture..." As best we can tell, Markey is the first Democratic member to publicly state his opposition to the deal. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's initial reaction to the deal was positive and, at this writing, there's no reason to think the deal is in trouble.
From NBC's Mark Murray
On Monday, President Bush will attend a fundraiser (closed to the press) for Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine (R), who's running in one of the most competitive Senate contests this year. But before that visit, the DeWine campaign has launched a brand-new TV ad highlighting his independence. "Senator DeWine is 'courageous,' a 'problem solver,' and an independent thinker,'" the announcer says in it.
The DeWine ad is a direct response to an earlier TV ad the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee began airing, which played up DeWine's ties to Bush. Set to the tune "The more we work together, together, together...," that ad states: "Mike DeWine likes working together with George Bush."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Election day is 46 days away... Everyone on the GOP side is trying to claim victory after yesterday's conclusion of Deal or No Deal on detainee trials and treatment. The compromise allows President Bush's CIA interrogation program to proceed without undermining the Geneva Conventions in the eyes of the three Senate Republican holdouts. The breach that had threatened GOP unity over its best campaign issue has been healed, and those congressional Republicans who were balking get to look like they don't march in lockstep with President Bush.
The next stage of the Administration's extended campaign to spotlight the broader war against terror are a series of meetings with the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan, which will take Bush through Wednesday. As with the detainee legislation, though, these meetings aren't completely unproblematic. At this writing, we're awaiting Bush's joint press availability with President Musharraf, at which the issues the Administration hopes to spotlight may take a back seat to Musharraf's claim to 60 Minutes that the United States threatened to bomb Pakistan "back to the Stone Age" just after September 11 if Pakistan didn't cooperate in a campaign against the Taliban. Coincidentally, Musharraf is scheduled to release his memoirs next week, and they'll likely contain a more detailed account of his charge.
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"While the deal" on detainee trials and treatment "is subject to further discussion with House Republican leaders, it resolved the most contentious issues in the Bush administration's high-profile drive to gain congressional backing for its detainee policies before Congress adjourns next week," says the Washington Post.
The Los Angeles Times casts the deal as a concession by Bush to the Senate GOP dissidents.
"At least one key Republican, House Armed Services Chairman Duncan Hunter of California, expressed reservations about the restrictions on secret evidence. He said he fears the government won't be able to convict terrorism suspects without it," USA Today reports. "Democrats appeared likely to back the compromise."
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The Los Angeles Times says its new poll with Bloomberg shows that "Americans have become more optimistic about the economy, and President Bush is getting some of the credit... Seven weeks before the midterm elections, the economy remains voters' primary focus. Among registered voters, 32% listed the economy and jobs as the most important election issue, followed by the war in Iraq (21%), immigration (17%) and the war on terrorism (13%). In follow-up interviews, those polled cited a variety of reasons for feeling better about the economy, including unemployment at a low 4.7% nationally, lower gas prices this month and an interest rate freeze by the Federal Reserve."
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said yesterday that she doesn't think the recent plunge in gas prices is due to price manipulation, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports, but Pelosi also said the root cause doesn't really matter: "We are still at the mercy of a Saudi prince that the President was kissing." And she asserted that Democratic prospects for November won't be affected by the price drop.
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The GOP-controlled House yesterday passed bills “designed to crack down on gang members and smugglers of immigrants. The legislation also encourages state and local police officers to act as immigration agents… Democrats dismissed the border-security push as a stunt by Republicans unable to follow through on President Bush's demand for a comprehensive immigration overhaul. ‘This is all for show,’ Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid… complained."
The Wall Street Journal has dueling op-eds from the national party committee chairs. Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman leads his with the most recent foiled London terror plot. "Democratic leaders are saying Iraq is a diversion from the war on terror, that we should be more focused on defending the homeland. But again and again, the Democrats have proposed weakening our defenses." He adds, "It would be foolish not to acknowledge the challenges Republicans face this election cycle... has been close to a century since Republicans have held the White House and the House of Representatives for eight straight years. Winning four elections in a row doesn't happen that often."
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Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean leads his Wall Street Journal op-ed by saying, "We need a Democratic Congress to fight the war on terror -- and to end the war on America's families" over economic issues, which Dean then details. "Democrats offer America a new direction in fiscal policy, for the middle class, and in the war in Iraq."
The DNC kicks off its first African-American Leadership Summit in Detroit today, where the party's "new direction for America" and get-out-the-vote efforts in the African-American community will be discussed. Among the participants at the two-day summit will be DNC chair Howard Dean, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, House Judiciary Committee ranking member John Conyers -- and Star Jones Reynolds.
GOP Senate nominee Katherine Harris of FLORIDA got a little love yesterday when the visiting President urged people at a fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist to "support" Harris, who was also in attendance.
Not counting Louisiana's free-for-all on election day, HAWAII tomorrow becomes the last state in the union to hold its primaries. And unlike past races in the Aloha State, one contest actually bears watching: the Democratic showdown between Sen. Daniel Akaka and his challenger, Rep. Ed Case. As we all know, the last time a Senate Democrat faced a serious intraparty challenge was last month, when moderate Joe Lieberman lost to anti-war Ned Lamont. But in this case, Akaka is being challenged from the right on the Iraq war -- Akaka favors a US troop withdrawal by 2007, while Case opposes that. Other issues in the race are age and ethnicity: Akaka is 82 and Native Hawaiian, while Case is 53 and white. Public polls show Akaka with a comfortable lead, yet no matter who wins tomorrow, Democrats are assured of holding this Senate seat in November. Polls open at 1:00 pm ET and close at midnight ET.
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The
Los Angeles Times profiles Californian turned Virginian George Allen (R), calling him a "rising star in the Republican Party and darling of the Christian right" -- and noting how he was "remarkably flummoxed this week as he acknowledged his previously undisclosed Jewish roots... Allen has sought to cast himself as an uncomplicated conservative who wears cowboy boots with his suits, spits tobacco and talks in football metaphors. His father's move to coach the Washington Redskins brought the family to Virginia, and almost overnight Allen became a Southerner... Despite his attempts to craft a new identity, he has spent the campaign mud-wrestling with who he is."
From NBC's Mark Murray
After Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman lost his primary in August to Ned Lamont, and then decided to stay in the race as independent, one of the big political debates in Washington has been whether his candidacy will help or hurt Democrats as they try to win three GOP-held House seat. Some say it will help because Democrats will be turning out to vote (either for Lieberman or Lamont) and that turnout will benefit the Democratic House challengers. But others think it will hurt because the endangered House GOP incumbents -- Chris Shays, Rob Simmons, and Nancy Johnson -- have all endorsed Lieberman (or at least praised his independent bid), and they're all targeting the same kind of voters Lieberman is: moderate Democrats, independents, and Republicans.
Well, those in the "hurt" column might find their argument strengthened now that Shays has launched a new TV ad mirroring Lieberman's own message -- that he's an independent who can get things done. In his new ad, Shays says, "I've never been a partisan politician. I've gone against the president and the Republican leadership when I think they're wrong... I believe we are Americans first and Republicans and Democrats second." But Bill Burton, a spokesman at the Democratic House campaign committee, tells First Read that Shay's appeal to the middle won't work, since he has voted 100 percent of the time with President Bush on Iraq (even though he now calls for a timetable for withdrawal).
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Ken Strickland
NBC News is reporting that a deal has been struck between the White House and Sen. John McCain (R) on the legislation concerning military tribunals for terrorist suspects. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), one of the Republican holdouts on the tribunal legislation in addition to McCain, tells NBC that the deal is "good, I think" Graham gave a thumbs up as he got on an elevator to go to meet with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and McCain. Graham also said I"m a very happy man."
According to a spokeswoman for Frist, language exists for an agreement, and this is a positive step forward. "Once everyone looks at it, we hope to come to an agreement."
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Spokesman Tony Snow typically doesn't brief the White House press corps on days when President Bush is on the road -- like today. But Snow took the opportunity posed by his relatively free morning to sit down with other political reporters at Washington's famed Monitor Breakfast, which can be a somewhat more civilized forum than the White House briefing room due to the absence of TV cameras.
Snow addressed all the news of day. Any further response to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez calling Bush a "devil?" "None," he said flatly. What's the status of the negotations over detainee trial and treatment policy? "Ongoing," Snow said. When pressed for details, he begged off by comparing the situation to "warm milk," in that whatever he told reporters at the briefing "will turn into yogurt by the time I get back to my office." He did dispute suggestions that Republicans are fighting amongst themselves over national security: "They agree on the goals. They disagree on the means." He said it's "clear" that there won't be a comprehensive immigration reform bill in this session of Congress, but that "the President's a patient guy." And he responded to suggestions that the Administration is somehow manipulating gas prices ahead of the midterm elections: "How do you manipulate global markets," he asked, given "the gigantic and complex forces that are involved in setting oil prices?"
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Election day is 47 days away... After spending the first part of his week on foreign affairs, President Bush hits the campaign trail today, returning to the state that gave him -- oh so narrowly -- his first presidential victory: Florida. His first event is in Tampa, where he raises money for congressional candidate Gus Bilirakis (R), who’s vying to succeed his retiring father, Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R). After that, Bush heads to Orlando, where he headlines a reception for gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist (R) and the Florida GOP (alert: the embattled Katherine Harris is expected to be in attendance). Unlike some of his past campaign visits, both of these events are open to the press.
As we mentioned earlier this month, it’s striking how few truly competitive races there are in Florida, which was the nation’s political epicenter just six years ago. Polls show that incumbent Bill Nelson (D) is expected to blow out Harris (R) in the Senate race, while the national Democratic Party doesn’t seem inclined to shower money on its gubernatorial nominee, Jim Davis, in his contest against Crist. In fact, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the only toss-up race for major office in the state is the congressional battle between vulnerable Rep. Clay Shaw (R) and challenger Ron Klein (D).
As Bush heads to Florida, there are two new polls that disagree on whether Bush is getting a bump from his recent 9/11-centered speeches. The Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows Bush’s approval rating at 45%, up 5 points since July. And it has Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot question by 10 points (49%-39%). The latest New York Times/CBS poll, however, has Bush’s job approval is 37%, which is virtually unchanged from its last poll. It also shows Democrats with a 15-point advantage in the generic ballot (50%-35%).
And speaking of Bush in Florida… The US Election Assistance Commission, which was created under the 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA) to establish election administration and voting guidelines, meets in St. Louis today. It will hear testimony from election officials and voting organizations about the status of voter information Web sites for the November elections, as well as the progress of military and overseas balloting. While the status of such matters may have gone unnoticed in the past, there is a growing chorus of concern over whether voters are better off now than they were six years ago -- when a hanging chad was, well, something you'd never heard of and lever machines were considered perfectly effective voting equipment.
There are a number of factors in play this year that create a perfect storm of voting problems. Per a recent estimate by the Brennan Center for Justice, 80 million voters will cast ballots in a different way this year than they did in 2000. As we've noted before, voters voting on new and unfamiliar equipment could cause a backlog of problems. Consequently, some groups are putting up voter information websites, such as the National Association of Secretaries of State's CanIVote.org, which was created to help educate voters about issues such as new voting equipment, voter ID requirements, and registration requirements. Tens of thousands of troops stationed overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan are why overseas and military balloting procedures are of concern.
Got calendar?
More on the Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll: "Support also rose for Bush's and the Republican Party's positions on the Iraq war and the economy... Republicans also narrowed the gap with Democrats on which party better represents Americans' values.” But: “Voters continue to view Democrats as the party that can better handle the major problems facing the nation and favor them on issues such as immigration, taxes and the budget deficit."
Polling partner the Los Angeles Times says, "The survey spotlights a continuing array of Republican vulnerabilities, but it also offers the first evidence in months that the GOP may be gaining momentum before November's battle for control of Congress."
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The Wall Street Journal: "The Federal Reserve left its short-term interest rate target at 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting... Stocks, meanwhile, which have been rallying because of falling oil prices and on hopes the Fed is finished raising rates and the economy escapes recession, extended their winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.28 points yesterday to 11613.19, just 110 points short of its January 2000 record."
USA Today reports on how Bush's job approval rating appears to track inversely with the price of gasoline. "For some Americans, analysts speculate, gas prices provide a shorthand reading of the general state of the economy. Even though prices at the pump are largely outside the president's control, he gets credit when they fall - and blame when they rise."
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The New York Times says Senate Republicans “formally put aside” the broad immigration overhaul supported by Bush “and decided instead to press ahead with narrower bills to require building 700 miles of fence on the southwestern border … The Senate voted, 94 to 0, to debate the measure on fencing and other border barriers at the cost of billions of dollars. But the fate of even that measure is unclear, because members of both parties have reservations, and [Senate Majority Leader Bill] Frist may need to block any amendments if he wants to deliver it to Mr. Bush before Congress adjourns next week.”
At the same time, a bipartisan task force yesterday criticized the GOP Hill leaders' push to approve a US-Mexico border fence before recess, and before addressing other proposed immigration reforms, as a "piecemeal" approach.
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The Chicago Tribune notes that with the midterms approaching, religious moderates “are uniting and organizing in an unprecedented bid to challenge the Christian right and broaden the values agenda beyond the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage.”
Women Building for the Future (“The Future PAC”) says it’s launching an outreach program in six potential battleground states -- CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, and PA -- and 25 cities, to turn out African-American women voters.
In CALIFORNIA, California State University is launching a “Flunk Arnold” contest this week, asking students to design a 30-second television commercial criticizing him. The AP writes that the initiative is three-fold: “Raise public awareness about fee increases at California colleges over the last few years; help defeat Schwarzenegger in the November governor's race; and get students involved in politics.” The producer's winning commercial will be aired during The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and will receive a year’s tuition.
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The Dallas Morning News reports on the concerns over election reform and the worries that new voting equipment is susceptible to tampering. "Election watchdogs fear similar problems or worse - perhaps even fraud - as thousands of U.S. counties use such machines for the first time in November's general elections. In Texas, most big counties, including Dallas, have already made the switch. But as smaller counties switch over, many voting experts are warning that people may face long waits at the polls, wrong vote tallies or recounts."
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The AP covers newly released White House records showing that "[f]ormer associates of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff," including Grover Norquist and Ralph Reed, "had dozens of appointments with Bush administration staff members... White House officials said they believe all their meetings that included Bush were group events, such as Christmas parties or policy briefings for GOP supporters."
Roll Call suggests one reason why Rep. Bob Ney (R) might be refusing to resign just yet: "House Members are paid on the first of every month, and a resignation beforehand would deprive Ney - who has no personal wealth - and his family of a significant portion of his Congressional income."
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Though some might consider him a long shot,
Bloomberg looks at the effect Sen. Russ Feingold (D) may have on the field if he runs for president. "The standard for purity in the Democratic Party these days is opposition to President George W. Bush, and Feingold, 53, has a record nobody else can match." Meanwhile, former President Bill Clinton "has told confidants he thinks Feingold will be a factor" in the election.
From NBC's Mike ViqueiraThe House Judiciary Committee has reversed itself after Republican no-shows on the initial vote on President Bush's detainee measure turned up for a re-vote and supported the measure. Rep. Louie Gohmert was one of the Republicans who initially voted "nay," but that turned out to be a parliamentary ploy to buy time until absent Republicans could be rounded up -- anyone voting against a measure can bring it back up for a re-vote. Long story short, the House measure squeaked out of the committee by a vote of 20-19. Barring any further developments, the measure heads to the full House for a floor vote next week.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House Judiciary Committee this afternoon has voted against the terrorist detainee bill favored by President Bush and most Republicans. But this doesn't mean that the bill is dead in the House. The measure has been reported out of committee "unfavorably" -- the vote was 20 against and 17 in favor -- but it still heads to the House floor where passage by the entire body is expected next week. Recall that the same bill passed the House Armed Services Committee by a vote of 52-8 last week. The Judiciary Committee, however, is much more polarized ideologically.
Still, three Republicans defied the leadership and the president in the committee vote. They are Reps. Louie Gohmert of Texas, Bob Inglis of South Carolina, and Jeff Flake of Arizona (who has become a McCain-like maverick).
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Some House Republican leaders are openly calling on Rep. Bob Ney (R) to quit Congress before his term expires on January 3, even as others grumble about a "double standard" being applied by Democrats. Ney's fellow Ohioan Deb Pryce told reporters this morning that she "believes very strongly that Bob Ney should resign" because he has "betrayed the trust" of the people of Ohio. Pryce chairs the House GOP Conference and, as First Read noted this morning, she herself is in a contested race for re-election. At the same presser where Pryce made her feelings known, Rep. David Dreier, the Rules Committee chair, also indicated he thinks it's time for Ney to step down.
At the same time, there is quiet grumbling among some Republicans about what they see as Democratic attempts to force Ney out, thereby depriving him of health and other benefits even as he undergoes alcohol rehab. They also see a double standard, noting that Ney has not officially appeared in court to make enter his plea and that no action should be taken against him until that event, now scheduled for October 13. Between now and then, they argue, Ney should be afforded the same benefit of the doubt that is accorded to embattled Rep. William Jefferson (D). Jefferson, he of the alleged $90,000 in bribe money found in the icebox, has not publicly admitted to wrongdoing.
So far, Democratic leaders have been content to sit back and watch the Ney case explode in GOP faces, and have not issued any public calls for him to leave Congress.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House and Senate Republican leaders will head to the White House this afternoon for a sitdown with the President. On the agenda, according to House leadership aides, is the end game. Specifically, how are they going to get around the current impasse on detainee legislation and deal with the NSA warrantless surveillance legislation, defense spending, various border enforcement bills, tax extenders, and the minimum wage -- all in time to leave next Friday for the duration of the election cycle?
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Election day is 48 days away... The Senate may be facing an either/or choice on detainee trial and treatment policy -- either a standoff that produces no bill, or a compromise. Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Majority Leader Bill Frist says Sen. John McCain (R) and his allies don't have a filibuster-proof majority to pass their bill. Translation: McCain's group may have more than 50 votes needed for final passage, but if a White House supporter decided to block or filibuster that bill, they wouldn't have the 60 votes needed to overcome it.
On the other hand, it's pretty clear the White House couldn't muster 60 votes for their bill, either, Strickland says. And even as Frist criticized the version drafted by the three Republican holdouts yesterday, he said he wants "to see if there is language that we can all agree to, before taking it to the floor."
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The New York Times reports that the White House has dropped its insistence that the Geneva Conventions be redefined. “The developments suggested that the White House had blinked first in its standoff with” McCain and colleagues Lindsey Graham and John Warner. “But few details were available, and it was not clear whether a compromise was imminent or whether the White House had shifted its stance significantly.”
Gen. John Abizaid, the top American commander for the Middle East, said yesterday that the US military "is unlikely to reduce forces in Iraq before next spring because the current contingent of more than 140,000 troops is battling sectarian violence that could prove 'fatal' to the country if not arrested."
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"Oil posted the biggest decline in four months yesterday after Bush said he will give negotiations a chance to prevent sanctions against Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer," Bloomberg notes. "Crude also dropped further today on expectations that a government report will show U.S. heating oil and gasoline stockpiles rose."
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has forged a deal for regular talks with China about "the long-term issues arising from China’s emergence as a leading economic power," says the Financial Times. "The initiative dovetails with longstanding Chinese ambitions to elevate the US-China relationship into one unencumbered by the many difficult issues that divide them, such as piracy of intellectual property, the swelling trade imbalance and, to some extent, human rights."
The GOP House campaign committee hastily called an off-camera briefing for reporters yesterday, most likely because of the new Gallup survey showing some of the best polling news the party has seen for some time, and committee chair Tom Reynolds guaranteed to reporters that Republicans will hold onto control of the House. "We will be in the majority the next Congress. You can count on that."
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A state judge in Georgia yesterday struck down a law requiring voters to show photo ID, saying it violated the state constitution and couldn’t be enforced. The ruling “was a significant setback for the Republican-led effort to enforce a photo ID requirement at the polls in Georgia… In October, a federal judge blocked an earlier version of the law, which would have required registered voters who lacked an acceptable photo ID to pay to have one made. Legislators quickly rewrote the measure to make the ID cards free. Supporters of the law say the cards are necessary to prevent voter fraud.”
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The latest round of FEC reports shows that the RNC has "more than triple the cash" as the DNC. "The RNC raised $7.6 million in August and has $39 million in the bank, compared with the DNC's August donations of $6.7 million and a balance of $11 million in the bank." Democrats are more competitive financially with Republicans at the House and Senate campaign committee level.
The Hill reports that with control of the House potentially being a close call on election night, both sides are already looking beyond that point to the ranks of moderate members who might be persuaded to switch parties.
The Wall Street Journal reports from California to makes its point about how many states aren't seeing any competitive House races this cycle because of redistricting that favors incumbents.
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House GOP Conference chair Deborah Pryce yesterday called for Rep. Bob Ney (R) to resign. Pryce faces a tough challenge as she seeks re-election in Ohio, where Republicans are burdened not only by their ties to an unpopular president, but also to an exceedingly unpopular, scandal-plagued governor -- and now to Ney.
Roll Call notices that an unusual number of members seem to be going from the House to the big house lately. Ney will "become the fourth Member to be locked up for criminal behavior, and... may not be the last. Ney will join ex-Reps. James Traficant (D-Ohio), Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) and Frank Ballance (D-N.C.), all of whom currently are being held in federal correctional facilities... Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) could join this group of disgraced Members soon."
The Hill reports that former DNC chair and party fundraiser extraordinaire Terry McAuliffe is telling acquaintances that he'll chair the next Clinton presidential campaign. "McAuliffe told The Hill yesterday that Clinton has not made a decision on running for president."
Sen. Barack Obama (D), fresh off of speeches about how his party needs to talk tougher on national security and the role of religion in politics, gives a speech on energy independence today in Washington as part of liberal MoveOn's policy speech series. Next week, potential presidential candidate and Sen. Russ Feingold (D) gives a speech on reforming the nation's election system in Philadelphia.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Regarding Tom Reynolds' guarantee (see below) that Republicans will keep control of Congress, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg tells First Read: "I thought Tom Reynolds was smarter than to make sweeping predictions 48 days out from the election, but perhaps not. Either way, it's the DCCC's job to affect races, not to predict them. It basically comes down to this: At this point in the election cycle, I'd rather be us than them."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The price tag on the massive Capitol Visitors Center project is likely to go up yet again, according to figures supplied by the Government Accountability Office to congressional officials yesterday. Per congressional sources, the new estimate of the total cost of the project will be between $580 and $600 million. The last GAO estimate -- released in February of this year -- placed the cost at $555 to $584 million.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
Obviously buoyed by the recent Gallup poll now showing Bush's approval rating at 44% and Republicans even with Democrats in the generic ballot test, House GOP campaign committee chairman Tom Reynolds guaranteed to reporters at an off-camera briefing this afternoon that Republicans will hold onto control of the House in November. "Reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated," he said. "We will be in the majority the next Congress. You can count on that." To bolster that claim, Reynolds said that Republicans are on the offense in a handful of districts (although they remain on the defense in most others); that they have the money (now with $36 million in the bank); and that their message is the winning one: "All politics is local."
During the Q&A at the briefing, Reynolds fielded several questions regarding Ohio Rep. Bob Ney's (R) refusal -- so far -- to resign from Congress, even though he recently pleaded guilty to corruption charges. He replied that Ney hasn't been on the ballot in more than a month, and that he won't be an issue in other races across the country. Pressed by another reporter if Ney's refusal to resign damaged the GOP's and Congress' credibility, Reynolds said, "I stand by what I've said" -- in that Ney won't impact other races. Pressed again by a third another reporter to directly comment on Ney's refusal to resign, he answered: "The gentleman is in alcohol rehab, and I don't know if any of my colleagues have talked to him since he checked himself in."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
At this writing, it looks as though the earliest the Senate will consider legislation on the NSA's warrantless surveillance program is next week, the final week of business before the Congress heads home for midterm elections. And with delicate negotiations over detainee trial policy still ongoing and possibly prolonged until next week, the GOP's whole national security pre-election agenda could get crunched into a few final days.
Last week, the Senate Judiciary Committee passed three different bills on the controversial NSA program, including the White House-sponsored bill. But since the committee has never been briefed on the program, the Intelligence Committee has asked to look over all of the legislation to see if changes are warranted (and Majority Leader Frist has agreed to withhold Senate consideration until the week of the 25th).
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
As President Bush prepares to address world leaders at the United Nations later this morning, the Senate Republican holdouts are considering an "alternative draft proposal" on convening military tribunals for detainees which the White House sent to Capitol Hill last night, per NBC's Ken Strickland. Messrs. Graham, McCain, and Warner could respond as early as this afternoon, but more likely later this week. It's unclear where the Administration may have made some concessions, Strickland says, but its desire to redefine the Geneva Conventions has been the biggest sticking point for the three Republicans.
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The new Gallup poll shows Bush's job approval rating at 44%, his highest in that survey in a year. Democrats are tied with Republicans on the generic congressional ballot test among likely voters. "The new poll found likely voters more prone to vote for candidates who support Bush on terrorism, 45%-28%, and evenly divided on those who support and oppose Bush on Iraq. More than a quarter said Iraq is their top concern this fall. For the first time since December 2005, a majority of people did not say the war there was a mistake; the split was 49%-49%. Bush's terror-fighting techniques drew mixed reviews."
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USA Today: "Gasoline prices continue to tumble briskly, dropping Monday to a U.S. average of less than $2.50 a gallon for the first time since March. Service stations even are beginning old-fashioned gas wars to avoid losing customers to price-cutting rivals."
Per the Hill, Wal-Mart has consulted with the League of Women Voters in crafting voter registration and education materials for its 1.3 million employees as part of a massive campaign to combat Democratic and union charges that it's unfriendly to labor. Several Democratic presidential candidates in particular have attacked the retail giant lately.
Republican incumbent Rob Simmons and Democratic challenger Joe Courtney debated for the first time last night in New London. MSNBC.com's Tom Curry reports that Courtney was much clearer about removing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld from the Pentagon than he was about getting US soldiers out of Iraq.
Courtney did not support a cut-off of funding for the Iraq deployment, even as Simmons seemed to try to goad him by saying, "If you were running for president, you might have some chance of changing that presidential policy, but in Congress the tools that we have to change the policy are cutting funding for the troops. I hope you're not suggesting a policy change that we would not support our troops..."
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The Christian Science Monitor reviews the seemingly Democratic-leaning landscape of the governors races, which isn't to say that Republicans don't have their opportunities.
CONNECTICUT Democratic Senate nominee Ned Lamont is focusing on universal health care, hoping it will help broaden his campaign beyond just his opposition to the Iraq war, the Hartford Courant says. "Lamont... is part of a wave of Democratic candidates who think health care is the next galvanizing issue." Another Hartford Courant story says McCain, who campaigned in the state yesterday for Rep. Nancy Johnson (R), plans to endorse GOP Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger.
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House Democrats don't plan to call on Republicans to expel Rep. Bob Ney (R), who has now forfeited all his committee assignments. Roll Call says that if Democrats were to call for Ney's expulsion, it would draw attention to their own scandal-plagued colleague, Bill Jefferson, who's at the center of -- although not convicted of wrongdoing in -- a federal bribery probe.
Although Democrats' "culture of corruption" charge against Republicans has faded, the Wall Street Journal says "widespread voter dissatisfaction with Congress has the electorate in a less forgiving mood. This campaign season also is marked by a number of close contests, making politicians vulnerable to charges of ethical lapses -- and raising the political stakes if the charges stick." The Journal notes that "[e]thics and personal controversy last figured this prominently" in 1994.
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In an hour-long speech at NYU law school yesterday, Al Gore (D) called dealing with global warming "a moral issue," the Washington Post writes. "Gore noted that few politicians of any party are willing to step into the 'no politician zone' of tough steps needed to address global warming."
Sen. John Kerry (D), addressing Pepperdine students yesterday, called for a "national commitment to reduce the number of abortions" -- echoing sentiments expressed by another presidential contender, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D). The Boston Globe says Kerry's speech was the "most extensive attempt to describe his religious views and define where he stands on so-called 'values issues' since President Bush defeated him for the presidency in 2004."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Without a doubt, the most closely watched ballot measure on Election Day will be the referendum over South Dakota's abortion law, which bans all abortions except those needed to save the mother's life -- a direct challenge to Roe v. Wade at a time when the Supreme Court has two new conservative justices. And the South Dakota group that's trying to get the law repealed, Campaign for Healthy Families, has launched its first TV ad. "South Dakotans agree: Honor and protect human life. Reduce the number of abortions," the ad goes. "But should a woman who's the victim of rape or incest be left with no option? What about the mother whose health would be seriously threatened? ... It just goes too far."
Meanwhile, in the New Jersey Senate race that has made Democrats increasingly worried about whether they can hold onto the seat, the campaigns for Bob Menendez (D) and Tom Kean Jr. (R) are sparring over whose surrogate is worse. Earlier today, Menendez and Joe Wilson -- of the CIA leak fame -- held a press conference assailing a fundraiser that White House adviser Karl Rove is holding for Kean. "It is no wonder that Rove is here to campaign for Tom Kean Jr.," Menendez said. "Karl Rove demands absolute allegiance to George Bush, and Tom Kean Jr. is more than happy to give it." However, the Kean camp issued a press release blasting Wilson's appearance with Menendez. "Menendez welcomes discredited and disgraced Joe Wilson to New Jersey," the release said.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty days until election day... President Bush's aggressive posture in his Friday news conference, which aides called an attempt to better explain the White House's position on detainee trials and treatment, may not have had its intended effect. The GOP heads into a second week debating the issue amongst themselves, detracting from their effort to keep the heat on Democrats over security issues going into the midterm elections. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken in the days leading up the Bush's primetime speech on September 11, indicated that effort was at least somewhat effective, up until that point, in nudging Bush's job approval rating and other standard measures of the political climate in a positive direction for Republicans.
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USA Today previews tomorrow's dueling speeches by President Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. "Their speeches may be the closest the two come to a debate," after Ahmadinejad challenged Bush to one a few weeks ago. Bush's speech will be his sixth before the General Assembly.
Bloomberg says Bush "comes to the United Nations... with limited diplomatic leverage to block the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, largely because of fallout from the Iraq war." Tomorrow, he "will touch broadly on the nuclear disputes involving Iran and North Korea... [He] also plans to raise the issues in private talks... In the speech, the president also will seek tougher measures to halt massacres in Sudan and abuses in military-run Myanmar."
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The Sunday Washington Post front-paged a storyline First Read has been following -- that state and local efforts to meet the requirements of the Help America Vote Act, and some other controversial changes to election procedures such as voter ID laws, could have the unintended effect of more glitches at the polls in November, judging from incidents that have occurred during some primaries, and that parties could rely on post-election litigation to determine the outcome of some close races.
One reason why voting issues will get attention from the Washington press corps is that they were recently faced with a prime example right in their own backyard.
We reported here on Friday that Democrats plan to focus more on the economy, including in their Saturday radio addresses. Roll Call reports today that "Democrats say they believe they can tap into voters's anxieties about economic security just as effectively as the Republicans play into Americans' fears about their safety at home," even though they "aren't inventing a new economic message, nor are they laying out new proposals... But they are planning to once again ramp up the number of media events, floor speeches and legislative maneuvers where they press key economic issues.
The Center for American Progress holds a conference today on how the next Congress should organize its efforts to conduct oversight. Speakers will include academics, GAO Comptroller General David Walker, former Reps. Mickey Edwards (R) and Martin Frost (D), and House Government Reform Committee ranking member Henry Waxman (D). With Republicans charging that a Democrat-run House would run rampant investigating the Administration and GOP members, and CAP being a "progressive" think-tank loaded up with Democratic former Hill, White House and campaign aides, we asked whether this conference were organized to respond to that charge. CAP senior fellow Scott Lilly told First Read that the conference will address the organization of oversight regardless of which party is in the majority, and that it was planned long before Republicans began talking about Democrat-driven investigations.
There's a big difference between Joe Courtney and a half-dozen other Democratic House challengers MSNBC.com's Tom Curry has interviewed this year, he writes. Courtney, running against GOP Rep. Rob Simmons in a House district that covers the entire eastern half of Connecticut, has run against Simmons before (losing to him in 2002) and is a veteran state legislator. Unlike other Democratic challengers who are rookies who've never run for office before, Courtney is sure-footed, aggressive and confident. He seems completely comfortable challenging a reporter's questions, Curry says.
Courtney's yard signs say "Courtney: Democrat for Change." His pitch to voters is that simple -- throw out the GOP House -- and he'll be making it when he and Simmons square off for their first debate tonight in New London. Courtney spent the weekend campaigning across the district, including walking in a parade on Saturday in the town of Somers, CT (up near the Massachusetts border) and mingling with Sunday festival-goers in Enfield.
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There's more coverage of how Democrats are hoping to damage their GOP opponents by clubbing them with Bush in speeches and ads.
US News & World Report examines how Republicans and Democrats are using microtargeting techniques -- dividing voters into categories that define their lifestyles and beliefs, and trying to turn out the ones who are more likely to vote for them. "Unlike any congressional election to date, the results of this fall's midterms could be determined by which party can out-microtarget the other."
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Roll Call reports that his ties to Jack Abramoff aside, "it was two gambling trips to London in 2003 that proved to be the most damaging to" the legal case of GOP Rep. Bob Ney. "During those 2003 trips, Ney and two aides... were given thousands of dollars in gambling chips by what the Justice Department called a 'foreign businessman.'" More: "Ney, who at press time had not resigned his seat in the House, will appear before a federal judge on Oct. 13 to formally submit his plea deal to the court."
The Washington Post front-pages its look at how the ethics issue has faded over the course of the year. "The Abramoff scandal, having ended the careers of a few lawmakers and stained the reputations of several others, can certainly rile up ardent Democrats... But it is not making fundamental changes in the nation's partisan landscape, especially in races... in which candidates are facing only unsavory stories rather than indictments or guilty pleas."
The AP takes its turn predicting that "the next presidential campaign," which "could cost each nominee $500 million," "could mark the first time in 30 years that the Democratic and Republican nominees turn down the Presidential Election Campaign Fund's millions in both the primary and the general elections." And the story notes that McCain, whose "name is synonymous with tough election laws that have banned parties from collecting unrestricted and unlimited amounts of money... is among those prepared to forgo the public financing system in 2008."
The New York Daily News notes that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s September 11 aura “is facing a challenge from critics who say he wasn't prepared for the attacks and downplayed health risks in the aftermath. His allies dispute the claims. But within his circle, some are worried that a political opponent could hit Giuliani where he's strongest. ‘The term being used within Giuliani's circle is “swift boat,”’ said a Republican insider familiar with conversations among Giuliani's aides.”
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From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
The Democratic leadership has selected House candidate Chris Murphy to deliver the party's response to President Bush's weekly radio address tomorrow morning. Democrats often assign the radio response to candidates they wish to showcase, and Murphy, a state senator, is giving Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) of Connecticut one of the toughest races of her career. Her seat is one of three held by the GOP that Democrats hope to pick up in the state.
What's notable about Murphy's response is that at a time when Bush and the GOP are working hard to focus the midterm election debate on security issues, Democrats are using their radio address to talk about a domestic issue -- in this case, Medicare premiums (an issue which has particular resonance in Johnson's race because she chairs the Ways and Means health panel and helped steer Bush's Medicare prescription-drug law through the House). Not only that, but a Democratic source tells First Read that they will devote part of their next three weekly radio responses to the economy.
President Bush told reporters in his press conference this morning that he "certainly (hopes) this election is based upon economic performance," because of his confidence that Americans will recognize how his Administration has boosted the economy, he said.
From NBC's Chip Reid
Sen. John McCain was rushing to catch a plane Friday afternoon, but he stopped in a Senate hallway long enough to give me his response to the President's press conference on interrogation of detainees. McCain has been one of the leaders of the "revolt" against the president's interrogation policy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Republican Rep. Bob Ney has become the first sitting lawmaker to face criminal charges in the Jack Abramoff influence-peddling scandal. Ney, who plans to retire from Congress this fall, is pleading guilty to conspiracy and making false statements. "Congressman Ney and his co-conspirators engaged in a long-term pattern of defrauding the public of his unbiased, honest services as an elected official," per Assistant Attorney General Alice Fisher. He faces a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, a fine of $500,000, and supervised release following his incarceration.
Back in January when Abramoff did his perp walk, House Republicans went into a frenzy to draft lobbying and ethics reform legislation, fearing that Democrats' charges of a "GOP culture of corruption" would stick and that they would face fallout from the Abramoff scandal in the coming elections. The upshot of that frenzy was a House resolution yesterday -- not a new law -- calling simply for the disclosure of information about who's requesting targeted spending projects. The fizzling of the frenzy reflects how the whole ethics issue has faded. The scandal has taken down Abramoff himself, Ney's former chief of staff, and a couple of aides to then-Rep. Tom DeLay (R) -- all of whom are named as Ney's co-conspirators. It also was probably one reason why DeLay opted to resign from Congress in June. It has not -- not yet, at least -- resulted in the kind of damage to the GOP ranks that they had once feared. Still, Congress' job approval rating in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is just 20%.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty-three days until election day... With Republican efforts to focus the midterm election agenda on security issues suddenly threatened by a rift within their own party over detainee trial policy, a rift which pits the White House against John McCain and Colin Powell, President Bush's suddenly scheduled 11:15 am press conference seems like an attempt to get things back on track before he heads to the United Nations next week. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Bush will make a short opening statement to further explain his proposed legislation on the military tribunals as well as on the "terrorist surveillance program;" will recap the week with references to his visits to the September 11 attack sites; and will preview his UN appearance.
CONTINUED >>
As NBC's Ken Strickland previewed here Thursday morning, a rift over detainee trial policy between the White House and a key handful of Senate Republicans led by Sen. John McCain emerged with a bang yesterday. The split also pits ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell against his former Administration, and leaves Republicans very publicly divided over a major aspect of the war on terror. At the same time, the House next week is expected to pass a bill that looks like the White House version. and
"Republicans had hoped the vote would be a chance to point out differences with Democrats over national-security issues, but, in fact, it won't be so clear-cut," the Wall Street Journal says. "Democrats spoke little, but tried to counter Republican attempts to paint them as obstructionists... White House spokesman Tony Snow said Mr. Bush won't support the Senate plan, which the administration contends would end the Central Intelligence Agency's program to collect information from captured al Qaeda leaders."
The Washington Times reports, "A Capitol Hill source said that after two weeks of fruitless negotiations with Mr. McCain, the White House has decided to instead have the fight in public and make its case directly."
CONTINUED >>
The House has voted to authorize -- emphasis on "authorize" -- the construction of 700 miles of fencing along the border with Mexico. That doesn't mean the fence is necessarily going to be built since, as NBC's Mike Viqueira points out, a fence will cost around $10 million per mile, meaning that this fence would cost around $7 billion. And the Senate has yet to act.
"The 283-138 vote demonstrated that even as Capitol Hill remained deadlocked over what to do about the millions of illegal immigrants already in this country, bipartisan support existed for significantly toughening border security, especially as the November election neared."
The Washington Times notes that "[w]hen the House last year approved its border-security legislation, it included almost exactly the same fencing," and that many Democrats at that time "said the fence proved that Republicans harbored a hostility toward immigrants. But by yesterday, more than 20 Democrats had switched their position." Among them: Rep. Harold Ford, "the Tennessee Democrat who is running for the Senate, said, 'For the country to be secure, we have to have control over who gets in and who's allowed to stay.'" And Rep. Alan Mollohan, a West Virginia Democrat who faces a tough race, "said he supported yesterday's fence bill because it 'makes a statement for consideration' of increased funding and even tougher illegal-immigration enforcement measures." Mollohan also said, "'The election two months away has something to do with everything we do up here.'"
Similar to the findings of the July NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, a new nonpartisan Pew survey shows marked pessimism about the future. "Just under half of US adults rate the quality of the life they expect to be leading five years from now higher than their current quality of life... The finding contrasts with 61 per cent four years ago, marking the sharpest downturn in personal optimism in more than 40 years."
Ford announced this morning that it "plans to cut its salaried work force by a third, eliminating roughly 14,000 positions, as the nation's second-biggest auto maker tries to accelerate its restructuring to head off a deepening financial crisis." (Remember that the White House has said it won't meet with the Big Three till after the election.)
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, two months into his new gig, "is taking control of the Bush administration's economic policy, moving some meetings of White House advisers to the Treasury building. He is also more willing than Snow to acknowledge economic problems, such as the gap between rich and poor," says Bloomberg.
On Monday, the Center for American Progress will hold a conference on how the next Congress should organize its efforts to conduct oversight. Speakers will include academics, GAO Comptroller General David Walker, former Reps. Mickey Edwards (R) and Martin Frost (D), and House Government Reform Committee ranking member Henry Waxman (D).
With Republicans charging that a Democrat-run House would run rampant investigating the Administration and GOP members, and CAP being a "progressive" think-tank loaded up with Democratic former Hill, White House and campaign aides, we wondered if this conference were organized to respond to that charge. CAP senior fellow Scott Lilly told First Read that the conference will address the organization of oversight regardless of which party is in the majority: "We are nonpartisan and wish to see improved governance regardless of which political party is in power." Lilly says the conference was planned six months ago -- i.e., before Republicans began talking about Democrat-driven investigations -- as a follow-up on a previous conference on checks and balances.
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NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that indications are that embattled Rep. Bob Ney (R), who opted to retire from Congress rather than try to win re-election while mired in the Jack Abramoff scandal, is close to a plea agreement with federal prosecutors. If he does so, he would be the first sitting member of Congress to fall to this investigation. Recall that former House aides and associates have pled guilty to providing Ney with "a stream of things of value" in exchange for official acts, Viq reminds us. But this is not a done deal yet: Negotiations have come close before, only to fall apart. Viq adds that Ney is in rehab in Ohio for alcohol abuse.
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Bloomberg profiles CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger "in the process of another re-invention: moving toward Democratic policies even as he runs for re-election as a Republican... 'I never got into that whole thing about `the Republican way is the only way to go,' he says. 'As a matter of fact, I always said both parties have something to offer and the person that really can combine the two is really the smart one.'"
Presidential candidate John Edwards (D) campaigns for his party's gubernatorial nominee, Jim Davis, in FLORIDA today. The Miami Herald says Davis' decision to choose state Sen. Daryl Jones as his running mate could make news if the duo wins in November because Jones would be the first African-American lieutenant governor in the state. Davis' opponent, Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) "is already well-regarded among many black leaders for his civil-rights stances."
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Out and about this weekend: Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in New Hampshire, Sen. John McCain (R) is in New Hampshire and Vermont, Sen. Barack Obama (D) is at the famous Harkin steak fry in Iowa, and former Gov. Mark Warner (D) is in Virginia. Check the calendar for details.
The Chicago Tribune says Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes (D), who ran against Obama for the party's Senate nomination in 2004, is urging Obama to run for president just days before he departs to Iowa for the big steak fry. "The comments from Hynes are among the strongest to date from a Democratic official about the prospect of an Obama presidential bid."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House has voted to authorize the construction of 700 miles of fencing along the border with Mexico, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports. But that doesn't mean that the fence is necessarily going to be built. First, this bill simply "authorizes" the construction of the fence -- it doesn't pay for it. A fence will cost around $10 million per mile. That means this fence would cost around $7 billion. Congress plans to appropriate $1 billion for that purpose this year.
Second, the Senate has yet to act. And third, this can be seen in a political context: Back in December, the House passed the same measure in it's border security bill. Today they have "broken out" that provision and passed it separately. Expect House Republican leaders to soon begin outlining what other border security measures they plan to push through before the election.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Responding to CONNECTICUT Rep. Chris Shays' (R) breakfast meeting with reporters today, opponent Diane Farrell (D) held a conference call in which she argued that Shay's recent call for a timetable to bring home US soldiers from Iraq amounted to an election-year conversion. "He has been a supporter of the war from Day One," she told reporters. "And I have not." Regarding Shays' call for a timetable, she added: "I've been talking about that for months, and he's finally come to the party."
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty-four days until November 7... President Bush meets with the House Republican rank-and file one last time before they disperse for the midterm elections. The next time he sees them, they may be in the minority. But for an election that's shaping up like 1994, Bush and Republicans are making a run at turning it into 2002. For all the signs pointing to substantial losses for Republicans in November, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows they have modestly improved their standing by taking advantage of current circumstances to focus the agenda on national and homeland security and frame that debate in terms most favorable to them. Whether or not their efforts will stick as the September 11 anniversary fades remains to be seen; the environment continues to favor Democrats even if the current debate is helping Republicans.
As the political climate turned increasingly grim for the GOP over the course of the year, Democrats decided to let the winds of change work in their favor without staking out a unified position on the Iraq war or making a sustained push on domestic issues. They have instead tried to go toe-to-toe with the Administration on security. Bush and Republicans are now filling that resulting issues vacuum, capitalizing on the bully pulpit and the September 11 anniversary. The scope of their losses on election day may depend in part on whether Democrats head into the final stretch debating the GOP on its preferred security issues, as presidential nominee John Kerry did in 2004, or focusing on their own. The poll shows Democrats with wide leads on dealing with Social Security and the economy; Republicans hold slimmer advantages on dealing with Iraq and terrorism.
(To print out First Read, click here.)
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Bush's meeting with House Republicans will take place behind closed doors. Also on his schedule today: a meeting with the President of South Korea and a social dinner honoring the Thelonius Monk Institute of Jazz. And don't be surprised to see the White House issue a statement about the passing of 73-year-old former Texas Gov. Ann Richards (D), who rhetorically whacked Bush's father at the 1988 Democratic National Convention ("Poor George, he can't help it. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth") and then lost to the son in 1994. The Dallas Morning News has an in-depth obit of Richards:
The Financial Times, reporting on the Bush/GOP full-court press on security, notes, "Bush is not expected to play a prominent role on the campaign trail over the next seven weeks."
Vice President Cheney heads west later today for GOP events in California tomorrow. Although his airport arrivals and departures -- at which he doesn't usually offer comments -- are open to press, his events tomorrow on behalf of the Republican National Committee and GOP governors are closed-press.
One expected topic for Bush and House Republicans today will likely be the White House bill on military trials for detainees, which is expected to come up for a House committee vote. The Senate Armed Services Committee, on the other hand, is expected to pass a bill today that's at odds with the Administration's in some fundamental ways, reports NBC's Ken Strickland.
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House Republicans are expected to announce their plans on immigration reform today, Viq reports. As mentioned in First Read last week, they're likely to seek funds for more border fencing, surveillance, and agents; Senate/Bush initiatives for a guest-worker program and a path to citizenship are not likely to be included. The House GOP bill "authorizes" the construction of 700-plus miles of fencing. This is not a new initiative, Viq notes -- they are merely "breaking out" the portion of the immigration bill that they passed back in December and putting it on the floor.
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The AP says the Senate showdown between Ben Cardin (D) and Michael Steele (R) in MARYLAND "could upset the usual political and racial alliances." But African-American rival Kweisi Mfume (D) immediately endorsed Cardin, which could help him with the black vote.
USA Today profiles Keith Ellison (D), who's likely to become the first Muslim-American member of Congress in November after a pro forma general election in his liberal MINNESOTA congressional district. "A criminal defense lawyer, he called for an immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq, universal health care and the impeachment of President Bush... Ellison says he never brought up his religion or his race... during the campaign. Voters did, however, ask about his position, as a Muslim, on Israel, the separation of church and state, abortion rights and gay rights. He says he supports them all."
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USA Today writes up the dynamic we've mentioned here about states rushing to meet new voting-equipment requirements and the possibility of real snafus at the polls in November. "Problems range from delayed delivery of new equipment to an insufficient supply of trained technicians to fix anticipated problems, voting experts say. Already this year, glitches have occurred in Arkansas, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia. Maryland became the latest on Tuesday, when technical problems, human errors and staff shortages led officials to keep some polls open an extra hour."
Stuart Rothenberg declares in his Roll Call column, "We are not going to have an anti-incumbent election in November. We are going to have an anti-Bush election." "Republican incumbents are in trouble not because they are incumbents, but because they are Republicans."
The New York Times reports that a new Democratic 527 group organized by Harold Ickes, the September Fund, plans to raise spend $25 million for advertising in key midterm races and ballot measures.
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Conservative columnist Bob Novak and former deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage are now in dispute over the details of their conversation in which Armitage became the first person to reveal Valerie Plame's employment by the CIA. Novak writes today: "First, Armitage did not, as he now indicates, merely pass on something he had heard and that he 'thought' might be so. Rather, he identified to me the CIA division where Mrs. Wilson worked, and said flatly that she recommended the mission to Niger by her husband... Second, Armitage did not slip me this information as idle chitchat, as he now suggests. He made clear he considered it especially suited for my column."
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Speaker Hastert spokesman Ron Bonjean offers the following reaction to the "no-confidence" resolution about Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld which was introduced earlier today by Democratic Reps. John Murtha and David Obey: "While America is fighting the Global War on Terror, Capitol Hill Democrats are confused about who the enemy actually is. Congressman Murtha's resolution is simply a political ploy to try to stop the Republicans' momentum from passing our national security agenda." Even Murtha concedes that his measure is unlikely to see the light of day, since the majority sets the agenda in the House. But as one House Democratic operative told First Read this morning, whether or not the effort actually succeeds is sort of beside the point, which is to get Republican lawmakers and candidates around the country on the record about Rumsfeld.
From Elizabeth Wilner
The RNC has a couple of good reasons to tout its success yesterday. First, had the effort failed, nervous Republican incumbents everywhere might have begun worrying about the party's ability to get out the vote for them in November. Second, they might as well get their money's worth from the effort -- which probably cost them more than they can afford to spend on each and every big race in November. And third, the party's GOTV machine, which Democrats have yet to emulate, is one bright spot for Republicans at a time when they're looking at the prospect of serious losses come November, and in some hotly contested races, might make the difference between a loss and a win.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The increasingly desperate struggle for control of the House is being reflected in an ever-higher degree of hyperbole and downright silliness as the clock ticks down to November 7.Yesterday it was the remarks by Majority Leader John Boehner, who wondered out loud whether Democrats cared more about protecting terrorists than Americans. Today, the House has launched a five-hour debate on a resolution commemorating the 9/11 attacks -- normally a harmonic convergence. But this time, the R's and the D's are already at each other's throats.
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Fifty-five days until election day... Everyone's (back to) politicking hard after September 11, with no further reasons to even consider letting up before November 7. President Bush raises an expected $850,000 -- at another closed-press event -- for the Republican National Committee in Washington. House Democrats host about 30 of their top candidates for closed-door discussions. Among the attendees: candidates for the seats of GOP Reps. Rob Simmons and Chris Shays of Connecticut, Dave Reichert of Washington state, Sherwood Boehlert of New York, and Jim Nussle of Iowa. And Vice President Cheney heads west later this week for two closed-press appearances on behalf of the GOP governors and the RNC.
(To print out First Read, click here.)
Most of the politicking continues to center on the war in Iraq, the Bush/GOP effort to cast it as central to the broader war on terror, and Democrats' argument that it's the reason why the nation is less safe now than before the war began. Tonight, a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll measuring the success -- if any -- of Bush's latest campaign and of Democrats' effort will be released at 6:30 pm ET on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com.
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The Los Angeles Times, noting how the White House insisted on Monday that Bush's primetime speech would not be political, says "Bush's inclusion in his remarks Monday night of a stout defense of his policies in Iraq... sent Democrats scrambling to issue late-night responses and prompted at least one network" -- NBC -- "to adjust its programming to make time for political analysis... Bush mused Tuesday about the dispute over his speech, telling a group of conservative columnists during an Oval Office interview that he would have been attacked either way." The paper points out that the advance excerpts released by the White House "contained no mentions of Iraq."
Pegged to Boehner's comments yesterday, the Washington Post's Milbank heralds the "arrival of Treason Season... right on schedule. Back in 2002, Bush declared on Sept. 23 that Senate Democrats were 'not interested in the security of the American people.' Republicans gained seats in the midterm elections. Two years later to the day, Bush went to the Rose Garden to say that Democrats' statements about Iraq 'can embolden an enemy,'" then won in November. "The aid-and-comfort line may not work as well this time."
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The US economic picture seems bright enough to the White House right now that they ventured to issue an "Economy Watch" press release touting falling gas prices, always a risky move given how volatile prices can be. Dow Jones also reported late yesterday that the price of crude oil sank its lowest level since March 22. Based in part on that news, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up over 101 points, within 2% of its all-time high.
"The recent drop in oil prices could provide a welcome and surprising boost to consumer pocketbooks this fall, cushioning the economy from a falloff in home prices and construction while venting an important source of inflation pressure," says the Wall Street Journal. "The easing of energy prices is an unexpected -- and little-noted -- positive amid economic anxiety over falling housing activity, previous energy-price increases and the possibility of recession."
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In ARIZONA, conservative Randy Graf beat moderate Republican Steve Huffman and will now face Gabrielle Giffords (D) for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Kolbe (R), the Arizona Republic reports. "Huffman… lost despite an unusual last-minute blitz of support from the national party, which poured $250,000 into advertising on the theory that he was the candidate with the best chance of beating a Democrat." More: "The Giffords-Graf matchup on Nov. 7 will be one of the most intense contests in the nation as Republicans struggle to keep control of a district they have held for 22 years."
Also, the paper adds that conservative Len Munsil (R), "one of the state's leading voices against abortion and gay marriage," won the opportunity to face off against Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)." The contest "should become a fierce general election battle over illegal immigration, social issues and the economy."
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As we've written many times before, this year's primaries are the first real test of the Help American Vote Act (HAVA), which was passed by Congress in 2002 to reform the country's voting system in the aftermath of the 2000 Florida recount. Certain provisions of HAVA have caused a political storm in Maryland, where voting rights activists have lobbied for years against electronic voting machines, which they say are susceptible to fraud and error. Despite their efforts, though, the state is one of the few in the nation to use electronic machines in all of its precincts.
But in yesterday's primary, it was human error and not technical glitches that caused voters to be turned away at polls. Election officials failed to deliver data cards required to record votes before the polls opened in Montgomery County, forcing many voters to leave without voting. A state circuit court ordered all precincts in the county to extend voting until 9:00 pm to allow those turned away in the morning an extra hour to vote at night.
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The Hotline's On Call reported yesterday that the Democratic National Committee and the party's House campaign committee (DCCC) have struck a deal that the DNC will contribute $12 million to turnout efforts this fall. DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel has been a vocal critic of the DNC's priority of building parties in all 50 states, saying that they should focus instead on states hosting races they can win. First Read reported at length not long ago about the Democratic party's various and seemingly uncoordinated voter turnout efforts shaping up for the fall. A DNC aide tells First Read that the deal shows the DNC "is making unprecedented investments to ensure that Democrats retake control of Congress and are elected at every level of government."
In CALIFORNIA, GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed bills into law yesterday as Democrats looked on and the campaign of his opponent contended with a mess over its downloading and release to the press of "tapes of private Schwarzenegger conversations in the governor's office," says the Los Angeles Times. The San Francisco Chronicle notes: "Technical experts said it is possible that... the governor's private files were password-protected but still vulnerable to public download." A criminal investigation is underway.
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The FBI raid of ethically challenged Democratic Rep. Bill Jefferson's office earlier this year and Jefferson's legal counterattack are back in the news, Roll Call reports, as a bunch of prominent folks plan to file amicus briefs on Jefferson's behalf, including former Speakers Newt Gingrich (R) and Tom Foley (D), former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R.), and Abner Mikva, former chief judge of the DC appeals court and a former Democratic member of Congress.
Anti-tax activist Grover Norquist defends the K Street (Republican lobbying) Project he co-founded in a USA Today op-ed, saying that its purpose is "to encourage trade associations and Washington offices of Fortune 500 firms to hire men and women who share their values and goals: low taxes, less spending, free trade." Meanwhile, an editorial in the paper singles out the Project as "a symbol... of what's amiss in Washington," and a "clear illustration of... how far the GOP has strayed from the principles of limited government and unfettered free enterprise."
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From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mike Viqueira
Following up on their claims that President Bush politicized his Oval Office address to the nation last night after the White House said the speech would be apolitical, Democratic leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi have sent a letter to the five TV networks requesting equal time for Democrats in the future to express their positions on national security and their views on the war.
From NBC's Mark Murray
While we're focused on all the primaries taking place today, especially the Chafee-Laffey contest in Rhode Island, here are some other developments in the races we're following:
-- In Illinois, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running automated telephone calls from retired Air Force Gen. Tony McPeak, who calls House candidate Tammy Duckworth (D) -- who lost both of her legs in Iraq -- "a great American." More McPeak: "She's tough. She is a veteran who made extraordinary sacrifices for her country. Tammy Duckworth has what it takes to be a wonderful representative." McPeak supported John Kerry in 2004.
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A day that was supposed to be void of "politics," is the focus of a testy political debate between Republicans and Democrats on the Hill today. After President Bush's address to the nation last night on the fifth anniversary of the September 11 attacks, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) issued a statement saying Bush should be "ashamed" of using yesterday's anniversary "to give a speech that was designed not to unite the country and commemorate the fallen but to seek support for a war in Iraq that he has admitted had 'nothing' to do with 9/11."
When asked about the negative assessments by Kennedy and others of the speech, House Republican Leader John Boehner walked right up to the line of calling Democrats unpatriotic. "I wonder if they are more interested in protecting the terrorists than they are in protecting the American people," Boehner said. He was then asked by a reporter if he was accusing the Democrats of "treason," which he denied.
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Ken Strickland
A debate over just how "political" things got during yesterday's solemn September 11 remembrances, including President Bush's primetime speech, is quickly boiling to a head today. White House press secretary Tony Snow, who among others told reporters yesterday that Bush's speech would not be political, today used a different word, saying the speech was "not partisan." Snow also said this morning that the speech contained only three or four sentences that could be construed as controversial: "This was not a speech about Iraq." And he argued that if Bush hadn't mentioned Iraq, there would be fallout about that, too.
Snow claimed that some "opposition politicians" had sent e-mails yesterday and "decided to use the day to talk politics." So, he suggested, it was appropriate for the President to respond and give his "honest reflections and reactions." "The President took pains yesterday not to be partisan and that was the appropriate thing to do."
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty-six days until election day... We begin with a couple of unfamiliar phrases in American politics: All eyes will be on Rhode Island today, where a Chafee is in serious trouble. From the standpoint of Republicans in Washington, they may lose a Senate seat today, in that they have pretty much written off their chances of holding onto Lincoln Chafee's seat should he fall to primary challenger Stephen Laffey. The conservative Laffey, for his part, argues that the party hasn't been able to count on the centrist Chafee and that he, Laffey, will be a reliable Republican vote. Chafee was appointed to replace his late father, the venerable John Chafee (R), in 1999 and then won a full term in 2000.
(By popular demand,
click here for a temporary way to print today's entire First Read.)
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Less than two months before a high-stakes election in today's bitterly partisan climate, Washington lawmakers had a tough time maintaining a facade of bipartisan unity during yesterday's solemn observances.
In his primetime speech, the Washington Post says, Bush melded together "one of the most unifying events in recent national experience -- the common horror and sadness of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon -- with one of the most polarizing, the war in Iraq."
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The Financial Times says of Bush's ongoing effort to bolster support for the war in Iraq as part of the war on terror that he "has been able to exploit the power of the presidency over the last week - overshadowing the Democrats’ release of their 'Real National Security Strategy' with the first confirmation of the secret CIA prisons." But: "The political impact of the speeches remains unclear."
A Washington Post analysis says "none" of Bush's previous efforts "produced a lasting positive effect on how Americans view either the president or his policies."
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USA Today raises the prospect of $2/gallon gas, eventually, if hurricanes or unrest on oil-producing nations don't interfere. "In many metro areas, prices averaged less than $2.30 Monday, according to AAA. And only in Hawaii was the statewide average more than $3."
While counting the hours until Rhode Island voters go to the polls to decide the winner of the bare-knuckles Chafee-Laffey primary, MSNBC's Tom Curry went to hear Democratic candidate Sheldon Whitehouse address a pasta-and-meatballs dinner last night catered by his campaign in East Providence.
Whitehouse has the restrained and reasonable style of Chafee -- not the scrappy, aggressive manner of Laffey, Curry says. He didn't electrify the crowd, but it seemed easy to imagine him in the Senate. He displayed a habit, not necessarily fatal, of not answering the questions the voters asked in the Q+A. One woman who asked Whitehouse a question about Supplemental Security Income, a program for old and disabled people who have little or no income, got from him a long answer about Social Security, a different program.
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House Republicans' big project this week is passing some sort of earmark reform, allowing them to say they did something on ethics and lobbying reform before they head home for recess. USA Today recaps how the blogosphere is shining more light on the earmark process.
The House Republican Policy Committee holds its public forum this afternoon to hear "testimony" from all the committee and subcommittee chairs who held field the 22 hearings on immigration during the August recess. The House GOP leadership will attend. Roll Call notes that hard-line illegal immigration opponent and Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) has been disinvited.
In an interview with Roll Call, Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman: argued that "the elections would be characterized by larger national issues transposed onto a localized, race-by-race battlefield;" said "he no longer considered Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) the most endangered GOP incumbent;" tried to lower expectations for Virginia Sen. George Allen (R); and said "he would leave it up to Rhode Island GOP officials to recommend whether [Laffey] should receive any RNC financial support if he were to unseat [Chafee] in today’s GOP primary."
USA Today looks at how House GOP leaders are pouring their PAC funds into retaining their incumbents, while their Democratic counterparts are directing huge sums to challengers, a reflection of how few of their own seats Democrats are hard-pressed to protect this fall.
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RNC chair Ken Mehlman attends a closed-press fundraiser for Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's PAC in New York today. An RNC spokesperson says Mehlman attends fundraisers for any presidential candidates who pitch in on the midterms.
The New York GOP's dearth of viable candidates for high office, as evidenced by their straits in today's primaries, could become an issue for outgoing Gov. George Pataki (R) as he seeks the presidency. Some might question why Pataki didn't do more to build up a candidate bench in his own state.
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Senior Bush advisors say the speech is running around 16-18 minutes, and that they expect to release excerpts later this afternoon (meaning you'll get a preview later today on MSNBC's Hardball and on NBC Nightly News). President Bush had one practice session on Saturday and a second practice run yesterday, and advisors say he'll do another run-through upon his return to the White House from the Pentagon this afternoon. They continue to advise that this will not be a political speech -- no call to action for Congress, no attempt to draw distinctions between the two parties. It will be, they say, the President's discussion of how September 11 changed the nation and what we have learned about the world.
From the NBC Political Unit and authors of First Read:
After three days in our new format, we want to thank all of those who have taken the time to check out First Read and post comments on the blog. We appreciate them all, complimentary or not. And for those of you who are offering suggestions about ways to further tweak and improve the product -- yes, we are reading them and factoring some of them into our ongoing plans for this page. As instantaneous as news delivery on the web can be, careful web design takes a little longer. This new page and our revamped politics site are the result of a lot of time and effort put in by a lot of patient people. So keep reading and commenting and perhaps you'll see more changes in the future.
On this day in particular, travel safely, wherever you're heading. Cheers.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Five years after the September 11 terrorist attacks, and 57 days until election day... As President Bush takes part in a series of observances and prepares to address the nation tonight, pluralities of voters say the country is "more safe" than it was before September 11, 2001 and give his Administration and its policies "some of the credit" for the absence of another terrorist attack on US soil since then, per the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The results suggest that some of the key arguments of the partisan debate over the war on terror -- Democrats' claim that the nation is actually less safe today because of the war in Iraq, and the Administration's effort to take credit for the absence of another terrorist attack -- are having limited impact.
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Bloomberg looks at how the glancing attention paid by Americans to national security issues in the years prior to September 11 changed that day. "Sept. 11 compelled Republicans and Democrats to develop strategies for taking the anti-terror battle to distant outposts and for protecting the homeland. It also polarized an already hyper-partisan atmosphere in Washington as the parties dueled over competing visions of foreign policy... [F]or the foreseeable future candidates for national office will run as they did during the Cold War, when credibility on national security was a threshold concern."
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President Bush defended the Administration's use of secret CIA prisons to detain suspected terrorists to NBC's Matt Lauer in their interview which aired on TODAY this morning and said, "We're using techniques within the law." Embattled Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that the "14 high-level terrorists" who have been transferred to Guantanamo "will be treated humanely -- though their victims were not -- and, if and when the necessary legislation is passed by the Congress, prosecuted for their crimes, in accordance with law."
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The new NBC/Journal poll shows that 48% remain quite concerned that the US economy will decline if there's another attack, making it the top concern of those listed. "Knowing how important the economy is to voters this cycle, it's no surprise that [this] tops the list of items voters say they are extremely or very concerned about," says NBC/Journal pollster Bill McInturff (R).
The Financial Times reports, "Concerns about Wall Street’s ability to withstand a terrorist attack, natural disaster or flu pandemic have prompted Hank Paulson, the new US Treasury secretary, to review the financial market’s disaster-planning."
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If Sen. Lincoln Chafee, the Senate's lonely Republican moderate, defeats conservative Steve Laffey in Tuesday's primary, would be it correct to see that as a rebuff of President Bush? asks MSNBC.com's Tom Curry, writing from Cranston, RI. After all, Chafee did vote "no" on the Alito nomination, on the Bush tax cuts, and on the Iraq war resolution. And just last week, he stymied UN Ambassador John Bolton's renomination. So Curry asked Chafee yesterday morning if a victory for him should be read as voters thumbing their noses at Bush. His answer: "Yes, for the unaffiliated (voters) more so, certainly."
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Among his other recent interviews, Bush gave one to the Wall Street Journal, which ran on Saturday. As a way to motivate seniors, Democrats are seizing on his comments that "he hoped to revisit Social Security reform next year, when he 'will be able to drain the politics out of the issue.'"
In the absence of real lobbying and ethics reform, House Republican leaders hope to pass a resolution this week changing the way the House handles earmarks. But, Roll Call says, "The reform measure does not eliminate earmarks or change the process by which earmarks are inserted into legislation."
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Stuart Rothenberg says Democrats will hold a majority of governorships after election day, which could prove key in the next redistricting process as well as in the presidential election.
ARIZONA also hosts a competitive Republican primary in a key House race on Tuesday, the race for retiring GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe's seat, which one moderate Republican stands a better chance of winning in November. But that candidate also stands a real chance of losing to a more conservative opponent tomorrow.
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Potential presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani (R) will be everywhere today. His USA Todayop-ed emphasizes his September 11 credentials and, to some degree, echoes Bush Administration arguments that "the killing of innocent civilians by Islamic fanatics has been going on for some time."
GOP Gov. Mitt Romney's Mormon faith may be tough for evangelicals to swallow, the Washington Times anticipates. "Mormon and evangelical Christian theology are worlds apart on many issues."
CONTINUED >>
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Five years after the September 11 terrorist attacks, and 57 days until election day... As President Bush takes part in a series of observances and prepares to address the nation tonight, pluralities of voters say the country is "more safe" than it was before September 11, 2001 and give his Administration and its policies "some of the credit" for the absence of another terrorist attack on US soil since then, per the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. The results also suggest that some of the key arguments being made in the partisan debate over the war on terror -- Democrats' claim that the nation is less safe because of the war in Iraq, and the Administration's effort to take credit for the absence of another terrorist attack on US soil -- are having limited impact.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
-- In California, the big news of the day was Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) being caught on tape, per a Los Angeles Times report, saying that Cubans and Puerto Ricans are fiery people because of their combination of "black blood" and Latino blood." Opponent Phil Angelides (D) pounced on Schwarzenegger's remarks, saying that the governor once again "has used language that is deeply offensive to all Californians and embarrassed our state." At a news conference, Schwarzenegger apologized for the comments, and said that he'd be upset if his children had said something similar.
-- In Rhode Island's competitive GOP primary, which concludes on Tuesday, incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) hits opponent Steve Laffey (R) in one of the toughest TV ads we've seen so far this cycle. "The file on Steve Laffey: Police document he talked down to the wife of a firefighter and then had to be restrained... To cover up a charge that he stole confidential material from a former employer, Steve Laffey doctored his resume. Steve Laffey. Untrustworthy. Unpredictable. Unreliable."
-- And speaking of hard-hitting TV ads, Tennessee Senate candidate Bob Corker (R) is running one -- his third ad of the general election campaign -- that blasts opponent Harold Ford (D) on an issue Ford has been emphasizing in his own advertising: national security. "Congressman Ford voted against reauthorizing the Patriot Act... He voted to cut defense spending by over 16%. Just who does he think is going to provide our security?"
From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC's Tim Russert reports this morning that White House press secretary Tony Snow has called the TV networks, requesting time for a Monday 9:00 pm ET primetime speech by President Bush to commemorate the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The speech will be from the Oval Office and will last about 20 minutes. But will Bush's have some competition for viewership? As all football fans across the country know, Monday nights in the fall mean Monday Night Football (which now is on ESPN). And at the same time as Bush plans to give his speech, the Washington Redskins -- the favorite team of many DC politicos and journalists -- will be taking on the Minnesota Vikings.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
T-minus 60 days and counting until Election Day... With the news the Senate Intelligence Committee will today release a report that Democrats say will prove the White House misused intelligence in the decision to go to war in Iraq, President Bush hits the campaign trail once again. He heads first to Michigan to attend a fundraiser for the state party and Senate candidate Mike Bouchard (R), who faces Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in November. And then he travels to Missouri, where he'll help raise money for vulnerable incumbent Sen. Jim Talent (R). Vice President *** Cheney also chips in by heading to Boston to deliver remarks at a reception for the Massachusetts GOP. All three events are closed to the press.
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The AP reports that the Senate Intelligence Committee today "will issue a report, two years in the making, that Democrats on the panel say will prove that misuse of intelligence played a role in the Bush administration's decision to go to war in Iraq."
The Washington Post writes that Bush yesterday called on Congress to give him greater authority to continue the NSA wiretapping program. "The president's appeal ... ran into roadblocks even as he spoke. Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) suspended efforts to draft legislation until at least next week after Sen. Russell Feingold (D-Wis.) proposed new amendments and a bipartisan group of senators urged more hearings."
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Another Washington Post article front-pages that the Bush Administration's decision to transfer the 14 suspected Al Qaeda terrorists to Guantanamo Bay "marked the end of a five-year effort by the Bush administration to conceal as many as 100 al-Qaeda suspects from the world and to shield the agency's interrogation tactics and facilities from public scrutiny. It was also the result of nearly two years of debate within the Bush White House, touched off by a personal plea from British Prime Minister Tony Blair for the release of British citizens in U.S."
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Per the AP, the number of workers filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits declined last week, "signaling continuing labor market strength despite a general economic slowdown."
USA Today reports, meanwhile, that the housing market could become even weaker, due to the fact that sellers are refusing to cut their prices enough. In addition, the paper says, a Federal Reserve official yesterday suggested interest rates could continue to climb, which would make it harder for Americans to afford homes. "The cascade of bad news weighed on stocks, which fell as investors worried about the ripple effect on the economy."
The AFL-CIO will officially kick off its voter mobilization program tomorrow with a series of "walks" across the country. AFL members will go door-to-door to discuss "pocketbook" issues with voters in 80 cities in 21 states. Per a release, the labor federation says this weekend is the "opening salvo in what is the single largest voter mobilization program in the nation."
Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean today addresses the National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters in DC.
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is ahead in the polls against challenger Phil Angelides (D). However, the Los Angeles Times reports on an audio recording it obtained in which the governor describes "Republican legislators as the 'wild bunch' and, referring to a Latina lawmaker, casually says that 'black blood' mixed with 'Latino blood' equals 'hot' - a fiery personality." A Schwarzenegger spokeswoman says the remarks were a small part of the conversation taken out of context.
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Any hope of passing comprehensive immigration reform this year is dead in the water, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports. But a plan is in the works to pass a series of border security-only measures before Congress leaves for a campaign recess on September 29. In addition, Viq says, House GOP leaders announced yesterday they will hold yet another hearing on immigration reform next week to discuss their observations from immigration field hearings and in talking to constituents over their summer recess. House Speaker Dennis Hastert left no doubt about where he and the GOP leadership stand on the principal provisions of the Senate bill. "Before guest worker, we need to heal the wound and stop the bleeding," he said, referring to the tide of illegal immigrants coming over the border.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
-- In Florida, the hits on Katherine Harris (R) keep coming. The state's Democratic Party is highlighting the fact that Harris, the GOP Senate nominee, wasn't among the Republican candidates and officials who went on a "Victory 2006" tour around the state today. "How can the Republican Party claim to have unity while blatantly ignoring their top candidate?" said a spokesman for Florida's Democratic Party in a statement. "It just doesn't pass the smell test."
-- In Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown (D), who's challenging incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine (R), is up with his second TV ad of the campaign, which hits DeWine on trade. "They work hard; they love their country; they play by the rules," Brown says in the ad. "But the cars, steel and appliances they used to make are now being made overseas, where workers are paid 3 or 4 dollars a day. My opponent supported the trade agreements that cost us these jobs. He says it's just business - I say it's wrong."
-- With the news that Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) is the one who pulled the plug on today's committee vote to confirm John Bolton as UN ambassador, primary opponent Steve Laffey (R), released a stinging statement: "All the other senators have made up their minds on how to vote except Lincoln Chafee, who, like always, can't figure out where he stands," Laffey said. "It is outrageous that a vote had to be postponed because Senator Chafee can't make up his mind." The Chafee-Laffey primary takes place this coming Tuesday.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House GOP leaders, eager for more ways in which to trumpet their opposition to the guest worker and citizenship provisions, announced this afternoon that they'll hold another hearing on immigration next week before officially driving a stake through the heart of the "comprehensive" reform advocated by Bush and other Republicans. The "forum" will feature GOP leaders who will trade observations about what they heard over their summer break in immigration field hearings and in talking to constituents.
At a presser late this afternoon, House Speaker Dennis Hastert left no doubt about where he and the GOP leadership stand on the principal provisions of the Senate bill. "Before guest worker, we need to heal the wound and stop the bleeding," he said, referring to the tide of illegal immigrants coming over the border.
As noted earlier, and not withstanding all this, a plan is in the works to pass a series of border security-only measures before Congress leaves for a campaign recess on September 29.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
What everyone on and around Capitol Hill has assumed for months to be true on immigration reform is expected to become official later this afternoon when House GOP leaders announce their border enforcement plan. Simply put, the Senate's "comprehensive" bill is dead for the year. That means the guest worker program and "path to citizenship" approach favored by the President and about one-third of Republicans in Congress will have to wait for another day, if ever, for a vote.
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
In his remarks on the war on terror in Atlanta earlier today, President Bush urged for changes to be made to the law to authorize the NSA warrantless wiretapping program and update the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. This represents a shift in the White House position, as Bush has not uttered this appeal before. Bush in Atlanta today: "The surest way to keep the program is to get explicit approval from the United States Congress. So today I am calling on the Congress to promptly pass legislation providing additional authority for the terrorist surveillance program, along with broader reforms in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act." The shift? From the time the program was disclosed last December, up until now, the President had insisted that no new laws were needed -- this is the first time he's called for one.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi is sticking to Democratic themes on Iraq and September 11 today, even as Republicans move swiftly to pass President Bush's detainees legislation, with a vote now scheduled for the week after next. Pelosi calls the invasion of Iraq "an historic blunder" and says that "we pulled our punch" by not focusing more exclusively on Afghanistan in fighting the war on terror. She disparages the Administration's approach, declaring that without a greater emphasis on diplomacy in the Middle East, "we will never win their hearts and minds." Osama bin Laden "is still on the loose," she adds. "The President said 'you can run but you cannot hide'... Apparently he could."
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Two months (or 61 days) until Election Day... Big things are happening in politics. With all due respect to President Bush, who's giving his fourth speech on the war on terror within a week, we'll start with a unique development that hits closer to home: the newly expanded and innovative www.politics.msnbc.com, powered by NBC News and National Journal.
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As NBC's Tim Russert said on NBC’s Today Show this morning, Bush's speech yesterday on military tribunals and CIA prisons for detainees "focuses the conversation on September 11, not Iraq," and forces Congress to deal with these issues this month. It also demonstrates the power of the bully pulpit. Senior Bush advisors had promised that the speech, in which Bush wound up disclosing the existence of secret CIA prisons, and the accompanying proposal to correct the military tribunals for Guantanamo detainees would generate an "enormous amount of news." What they did was turn the spotlight away from Iraq, where Democrats have been trying to hold it because the war is a political liability for Bush and Republicans, and onto the issue which Republicans hope will give them an edge over Democrats in the midterm elections.
The Chicago Tribune notes how Bush "demonstrated a willingness--again--to make the election fortunes of his party a referendum on his effectiveness in fighting the war on terrorism, a tactic that almost certainly secured his second term in the White House."
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The Iraqi government takes control of its armed forces today, "a milestone American officials have hailed as crucial to the country's difficult road to independence and eventual withdrawal of foreign troops," says the AP. "Turning over control of the country's security is vital to any eventual drawdown of U.S. forces here... However, it is unclear exactly how quickly Iraqi forces will be prepared to take over their own security."
Vulnerable GOP Rep. Curt Weldon, who faces a tough challenge from a former Navy vice-admiral in his run for re-election and "is a strong supporter of the U.S. military mission in Iraq, has drafted a resolution that would give military commanders - instead of President Bush or Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld - decision-making authority over when American troops should return home," The Hill reports. "The resolution would express the sense of the House that military commanders should put in place a system of criteria to assess the capability of Iraqi security forces... The resolution is a bold step and goes farther than what many Democrats have advocated."
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Gas prices are currently down, but oil company executives are still being summoned to testify before Congress -- this time from oil giant BP, whose execs are scheduled to testify before the House Energy and Commerce Committee this morning about the recent pipeline leak in Alaska. NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that Richard Wollam, from BP's corrosion inspection group, will take the Fifth Amendment.
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Democrats hold a couple of events today on the two big domestic issues President Bush has touted but on which he has failed to achieve legislative success during his second term, although Democrats' intent probably wasn't to highlight that fact. Instead, they seem to be looking to rally key constituencies -- seniors and Latinos -- to their side by hyping these issues even though neither is on the congressional agenda for the month. Hill leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will lead a rally with other Democratic members and "hundreds" of seniors to talk up "a new effort to protect Americans' Social Security from the relentless attempts by President Bush and the Republican Congress to privatize Social Security," the release says -- even though the GOP effort has hardly been "relentless." Also today, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) leads a rally in support of the Senate immigration bill.
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"House Democrats are planning to host their top challenger candidates on Capitol Hill next Wednesday for an event designed to quicken the drumbeat for Democratic chances of taking back the House this fall." – Roll Call
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Former Illinois Gov. George Ryan (R), who gained fame for his moratorium on death penalty cases, "was sentenced Wednesday to 6 1/2 years in prison," the Chicago Tribune writes. "Ryan was snared in an eight-year federal probe that exposed rampant bribery in state driver's license facilities while he was secretary of state."
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From NBC's Mark Murray
Meeting with about 30 Washington political reporters earlier this morning, antiwar Democratic Senate nominee Ned Lamont of Connecticut said he believes his general-election race against pro-war incumbent Joe Lieberman (I) will be a referendum on Iraq. If Lieberman wins in November, Lamont argued, that will be a sign that voters in even the bluest of states want to stay the course in Iraq. But if he wins, that will mean there are "going to be a lot of other people around the country wanting to change course." Lamont also said he opposes impeaching President Bush (although he believes in holding Bush accountable) and opposes cutting off funding for the troops in Iraq (even though he supports their withdrawal).
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
More White House build-up to President Bush's third speech on the war on terror at 1:30 pm: Senior Bush advisors say the speech and the accompanying proposal to correct the military tribunals for Guantanamo detainees, which the US Supreme Court deemed unconstitutional back in June, will generate an "enormous amount of news." When asked by the press corps if they're raising expectations, White House spokesperson Tony Snow responded, "We're gonna deliver today," and, "Trust me, it's better than you think." However, he would not provide any further guidance on the "enormous amount of news" of the speech. Hill lawmakers will be briefed before the speech today.
President Bush’s speech will be available live at 1:45 p.m. ET today from http://video.msnbc.com.
62 days until Election Day... President Bush meets with his Cabinet this morning, then delivers his third speech in less than a week on the war on terror. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that the 1:45 pm speech, a late add to the schedule, will coincide with the White House's submission to Congress of proposed legislation to correct the military trials for Guantanamo detainees, which the US Supreme Court deemed unconstitutional back in June. A fourth speech in Atlanta remains on the books for tomorrow.
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The Administration closed ranks around Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld yesterday. The Pentagon declined to comment on calls to remove him from office; NBC's Courtney Kube reports that spokesperson Bryan Whitman said the Pentagon is "not going to get involved in politics in the Defense Department." White House spokesperson Tony Snow told reporters, "The President strongly supports the Defense Secretary... Creating Don Rumsfeld as a bogeyman may make for good politics but would make for very lousy strategy at this time."
White House chief of staff Josh Bolten undertook the official response to the Democratic leadership's Monday letter calling for a "new direction" in Iraq; he also rejected their call for new civilian leadership at the Pentagon. Of the Democrats' four-pronged proposal for a new course in Iraq, three of four elements, Bolten wrote them yesterday, "reflect well-established Administration policy," while the fourth, a phased redeployment of troops, "is dangerously misguided... Your proposal... would have U.S. forces begin withdrawing from Iraq by the end of the year, without regard to the conditions on the ground."
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The Washington Post calls Bush's citing of notorious terrorists' own words yesterday "a dramatic new tactic to advance familiar arguments from Bush in defense of his strategy." Also along these lines, the Administration's newly released plan to combat terrorism "calls the administration's policy of spreading freedom and democracy the best means of countering that threat over the long haul." (The spread of democracy was, of course, Bush's stated top priority for his second term.)
The Chicago Tribune: "In a tactical and rhetorical shift, the president invoked the name of bin Laden 17 times to make his argument more vivid."
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Senior White House officials tell NBC's O'Donnell that a meeting between Bush and the Big Three automakers won't happen until after the election. Advisors say the prospect of the meeting has gotten "too mired in politics." Two scheduling attempts were made, they say; one meeting was canceled by the automakers, and the other was dropped due to a change in presidential travel. The White House says it has "been in touch with all three" and they have agreed to meet later, O'Donnell reports. Bush has a fundraiser in Michigan scheduled for Friday, and Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm has called on him to meet with the Big Three when he's in the area. Republican gubernatorial nominee *** DeVos has accused Bush of ignoring a struggling industry. The party's Senate nominee, Mike Bouchard, who will benefit from the presidential visit on Friday, has issued a statement saying he looks forward to talking with Bush about issues of concern to Michigan families.
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Although GOP leaders are determined to spend most of this month focusing on security issues, they're facing pressure from within and without to tackle other issues before leaving town to campaign for the midterm elections. The Hill says "several vulnerable House Republicans" are pressuring GOP leaders "on an array of legislation that [they] have resisted for most of the 109th Congress, chief among them being an increase in the minimum wage." "The priorities of these endangered incumbents... create pressure for leaders to revisit issues they would rather avoid, and together add up to too many items for the House to address before recessing for the elections."
And Roll Call reports that House Republicans leaders, mindful of "a disgruntled base and public demands for action to address illegal immigration,... are planning a push this month to shift the focus away from their inability to reach agreement with the Senate by passing smaller-scale initiatives to strengthen the border."
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The National Secretaries of State (NASS) is launching a website to help voters as they head to the polls in a new world in which key provisions of the Help America Vote Act will take full effect this year. The website, CanIVote.org, gives voters a step-by-step guide to voting this year.
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Roll Call points out some lawmakers' potentially awkward need to campaign on September 11 because of the spate of primaries the next day.
The Hartford Courant covers Connecticut Senate contenders Lieberman and Lamont as Lamont tries to broaden his message beyond the Iraq war and Lieberman tries to "recast his primary loss as a general-election virtue: evidence of his prizing bipartisanship and pragmatism over party loyalty."
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Britain is buzzing over a tabloid report that Prime Minister Tony Blair "intends to resign as leader of the governing Labor Party on May 31, triggering a leadership election likely to take about eight weeks... He would then be replaced as prime minister on July 26." - Los Angeles Times
There are now five candidates to succeed UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, including one who would become "the first Muslim to hold the post if chosen." Annan's term expires later this year. – Los Angeles Times
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President Bush said in his Labor Day remarks yesterday that the nation's dependence on foreign oil "jeopardizes our capacity to grow." Roll Call reports that some Democratic congressional candidates are holding events where they sell cheap gas to draw attention to high prices at the pump; Republicans charge that this amounts to vote-buying.
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The Los Angeles Times, ringing in "Security September," says that beyond the "must-pass" defense and homeland security appropriations bills, "the rest of the GOP's security agenda is likely to produce stubborn opposition from Democrats... But the White House and Republican leaders in Congress believe events last month - particularly the uncovering of an alleged terrorist plot in Britain and a federal court ruling that the domestic surveillance program is unconstitutional - improve the likelihood that they can enact the tough laws they want in these areas instead of compromising with critics."
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Two more presidential speeches and another glossy White House booklet. A series of congressional floor debates planned to benefit Republicans. The prospect of Democrat-sponsored rebukes of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. A trickle of GOP candidates distancing themselves from Rumsfeld and the President's policies. Sen. Joe Lieberman's first day back at work since he lost his primary. The underlying theme of all the schedule highlights this week is the war in Iraq.
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The Wall Street Journal editorial page calls for Republicans to broaden their horizons beyond security to emphasize "sound policies that highlight differences between the two parties," including "spending restraint" and property rights.
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In the latest of a series of missives from his tours of battleground states and districts, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry notes that there's no Lamont in Washington state, and that, as much as anything, explains why first-term Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) seems likely to hold onto her seat. Like her colleague Joe Lieberman, Cantwell voted to authorize Bush to use military force in Iraq, and many Washington state Democrats were miffed. But despite the affluence and prevalent liberalism in the Seattle area, no wealthy challenger had the nerve to run against Cantwell, who's expected to get through her September 19 Democratic primary. Longtime state Democratic leader Karen Marchioro told Curry: "You could have a fundraiser with all the Microsoft people who must be kicking themselves by not seeing what happened in Connecticut. How many people are just saying, 'Why didn't I think of that?'"
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The Hartford Courant observes that those Democratic candidates who are trying to borrow from Connecticut Senate nominee Ned Lamont's playbook are falling short. "He gave them some energy, but they are unlikely to duplicate his success."
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The New York Daily News has Republicans close to Bush worried that Republicans will lose the House. "The best-case scenario offered by several White House and Republican Party optimists projects losing three Senate seats and eight to 10 House races. That would diminish Bush's legislative clout, but keep the GOP in control."
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Yesterday's Chicago Tribune looked at how the cruising has come to a halt for congressional lawmakers who are now a little leery of taking advantage of yacht companies' largesse.
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