First glance

Posted: Tuesday, October 31, 2006 9:05 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
One week out... The final pre-election NBC/Wall Street Journal poll will be released tonight on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Per the poll, President Bush's job approval rating on the economy is 46%, up from 44% two weeks ago and continuing its upward trend since September -- presumably due to lower gas prices, a booming stock market, and the White House's intense focus on the economy over the past few weeks. The rest of the poll will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

CNBC dissects that economic job-approval rating and weighs in on what the looming midterm elections could mean for business and the economy with a day-long series of reports today. Scheduled guests include possible presidential contenders Sen. Barack Obama (D), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R), and Gov. Mitt Romney (R); House campaign committee chairs Tom Reynolds (R) and Rahm Emanuel (D); Senate Finance Committee chair Charles Grassley; Sens. Mike DeWine (R) and Ted Kennedy (D); and endangered Rep. Steve Chabot (R) of Ohio and his Democratic opponent John Cranley. Also in the spotlight: what Wall Street firms, investment gurus and big CEOs are saying about the state of the economy and how they expect the election to turn out.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also addresses the Iraq half of the midterm-election equation in an interview with CNBC's Larry Kudlow. We'll see if she echoes the Bush-Cheney rhetoric from yesterday. Bush, on the stump, basically said that if Democrats score big gains in the election, the terrorists will win and the nation will lose. Cheney, on FOX, linked the escalating violence in Iraq to terrorists' efforts to affect the outcome of the elections: “It's my belief that they're very sensitive of the fact that we've got an election scheduled and they can get on the websites like anybody else." NBC's Lisa Myers reports that there's no intelligence that al Qaeda plans anything for the elections, but intel officials wouldn't be surprised to hear from Osama bin Laden before November 7.

And MSNBC continues its wall-to-wall political coverage today.

President Bush returns to Georgia today take another whack at helping the GOP uproot two Democratic incumbents there. He rallies in Perry, GA later this afternoon. Brother Jeb e-mails Republican supporters this morning: "I can tell you that my brother is absolutely committed to winning this election." Laura Bush campaigns in North Carolina and at two stops in Tennessee.

Bush isn't the only one out there working ropelines. Obama's book-selling/Democratic victory tour came to Rochester, MN last night with Obama lending his help to Democratic House candidate Tim Walz and Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar, MSNBC's Tom Curry reports. In a precursor to a possible 2008 contest, Rochester voters also will see Sen. John McCain (R) tomorrow morning when he campaigns for GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Walz's opponent, Rep. Gil Gutknecht.

Lean and relaxed, Obama gave a motivational speech to an ecstatic crowd of about 3,000, drawing huge applause with his homage to the late Sen. Paul Wellstone. Even though he said neither party has a monopoly on virtue, he argued that the Democrats are the ones who care about ordinary folks. It wasn't a policy speech, so he didn't offer a plan for Iraq. But he got raucous cheers and applause when he said, "The might of our military has to be matched by the finesse of our diplomacy."

The Monday night rally had a 2008 bonus for Obama: parts of it were broadcast live on NBC affiliate KTTC, whose signal reaches several counties in northern Iowa, Curry notes. After the speech, Obama took to the ropeline. Fans thrust out copies of Time magazine with Obama's photo on the cover for him to autograph.

A big Obama fan from among the many in the crowd: former Minnesota Gov. Wendell Anderson (age 73) who said that Obama ought to run in 2008 and not wait for some far-off chance. Youth is his asset. "I was a very young governor," recalled Anderson. "If I had been elected governor 15 years later, I would never have tried to do the good things we did, because I would have thought they were impossible."

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Comments

ya gas prices are lower than last month but just to make a BOLD PREDICTION AFTER THE ELECTIONS GET READY FOR HIGHER PRICES AND WHEN THAST HAPPENS THE GAS COMPANIES WILL FIND SOME EXCUSE OR ANOTHER JUST LIKE TYHEY ALWAYS DO.

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 9:46 AM)

"Booming stock market"? The market has been dead for 6 years and suddenly this is "booming". It's moving but has anyone made back what they've lost since 2000? The middle class is sqweezed between rising prices for everything and total salary stagnation. Time to wake up America. The only ones doing better than they were 6 years ago are on the Forbes list of millionaires and billionaires.

Celery, Boston, MA. (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 11:11 AM)

Per mikeeg's remark: they're already going up at some stations where I live--they couldn't even wait until the election.

Olivia Elizabeth Burdon, Peoria, Ill. (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 11:32 AM)

I am doing better than I was, and I am no millionare. I guess your generalization is wrong.

Adam, Raleigh, NC (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 11:34 AM)

i would have to agree that after the election, especially if we leave the same people in the positions they now hold....gas prices will go back up, there will be no consideration given to a change in our status in Iraq and the middle class people will be squeezed to their limits and the term middle class might no longer exist. The freedom we once had is slowly disappearing and no one seems to mind too much.

Lo (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:02 PM)

Lo, Philadelphia PA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:03 PM)

I am doing better financially, too; however, the way this Republican Congress and White House have been spending money for the last 6 years has me very worried about the future. I voted for the Dems this year, hoping they could put on the breaks. Who would have thought that the GOP would be spending like this?!?

Brad, Austin, TX (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:22 PM)

I must say that it scares me how many socialists there are here. You, of course, are free to share your thoughts and concerns, just like I am, but it is alarming that despite how much wealth the economic policies from Reagan through the current administration has created there are still so many people that don't get it. Throughout history there have been many examples of how if you take wealth from those who earned it or have it and give it to those who haven't earned it that your economy will collapse on itself. The economy has been in very very good shape for much of the past 20 years and now is in major danger going forward if in fact we decide to start giving majority power to the socialists.

Ryan, Western Michigan (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:29 PM)

Yup, I am doing Ok also in the money category - of course my kids are all grown and gone, I get health care through work, the house has long ago been paid in full, etc, etc, etc. How other people are cooping is a wonder.

Bonnie (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:30 PM)

You know, I am so angry at the DNC for letting them get away with this "booming economy" crap. As I pointed out in another thread last week, my recollection is that gas prices were about $1.60 when Bush took office (I could be off on this, though). Now, at about $2.60, reflecting an increase of 60% in six years, give or take. Don't tell me gas prices are down when Exxon/Mobil, Chevron, et al enjoy record profits quarter after quarter and are paying hundreds of millions in bonuses. Don't tell me the economy is booming when mid-level-range jobs are being outsourced to India and the Philippines while WalMart is hiring down the street at barely minimum wage and no benefits, while their manufacturing operations and vendors are in Chinese sweat shops. Don't tell me the economy is booming when my employer expects me to pay an exponentially higher percentage of my medical and dental premiums and yet my coverage amounts have substantially decreased, my co-pay and deductibles have risen, and when I now pay $25 for a non-generic prescription when six years ago I paid $10. Don't tell me the economy is booming when my home and car insurance rates have skyrocketed and insurance companies are allowed to cancel policies after a single claim. And our taxes will go up... they must, to pay for this debacle of a war that the idiot in the White House has gotten us into. Don't tell me America is a better place now than under Bill Clinton. I was proud to be an American then... and stop blaming my shame for the may my country treats people abroad on 9/11. Why isn't the DNC countering these economic issues that the republicans are raising. Howard Dean has got to go. Bill Clinton needs to head the DNC.

James, San Francisco, CA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:45 PM)

"The freedom we once had is slowly disappearing and no one seems to mind too much. " Not so, my friend. If Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter won't speak out, others will.

Lee Steele (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:48 PM)

I seeing gas prices jump already in my area. I worse off than I was 6 years ago and the picture doesn't look any brighter. We have a murder a week here, most are drug related. I have a house that I can not sell. When I go the VA treatment for my Serice Connected diabilty it takes 4montes to get an appointment with an doctor that doesn't know anything or does even care. My Congres rep wouold not help me becuase I would not donate to her and I am Democat and she is repbulican and a Rubber stamp for Bush. I am sick and tired of the attak ads . when I go to vote next week I will vote for all democats

Gregory A Reece (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:50 PM)

"I am doing better than I was, and I am no millionare. I guess your generalization is wrong. " Only a Bush Republican could take one example out of 200,000,000 and think it proves a point across the board. Way to think.

! (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 12:54 PM)

adam im glad to hear you are doing better but you are an exception not the rule so your generalization is wrong...

mikeeg,abdn,wa (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 1:03 PM)

well, if anything got worse it would have to get better first and i certainly do not forsee thaat anything soon with bushy in the white house. i am a disabled 62 years of age woman that draws 392.00 a month and have no medical. my meds alone cost me over a 1000,00. and i won;t tell of of the rest, takes to long..i need help""""""peroid..oh yes i am a usa citzen..born and bred here.

jane boyer elgin sc 29045 (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 1:13 PM)

How can you call this a booming ecomomy? With the stock market just recovering its position of 2000, middle class with less real income than in 2000, the US becomming the worlds largest debtor nation with the national dept out of sight, balance of trade off the charts, gas prices double the 2000 price, the economic seperation between the rich and middle class growing ever wider, and the poor exanding, health cost driving people to the highest levels of bankruptcy since the great depression, home market headed to a bust and home owners equity evaproating, and to top it off, the national pending gap between national revenues and expenses driving the US to its greatest crisis ever- I cannot understand how the forth estate can simply mouth the talking points of the Bush agenda without comment.

James Wallin, Fairfax Station VA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 1:16 PM)

James Wallin, Fairfax Station VA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 1:18 PM)

DOW when Clinton took office: 3,300 DOW when Clinton left office: 11,000 That's a more than 300% increase in 8 years. DOW now: 12,000 That's less than a 10% increase in 6 years. Bush's "economy" is nowhere near as good as Clinton's was.

Nemo Trax, Pittsburgh PA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:01 PM)

Ryan Sweeney, Michigan (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:02 PM)

Adam, If your no millionaire you just think your doing better.

Gotyoufooled (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:03 PM)

Yeah booming economy! I'm not doing any better, for the first time I'm faced with cashing in some of my IRA, taking a hit in penalities and taxes so I can buy oil to heat my house this winter, and it's not a big house! Costs have gone way up! Fees, taxes, gorceries. Yeah if the economy gets any better I'm going to have to live on the streets!!

Douglas DeGroat, Poughkeepsie, New York (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:20 PM)

Hey Ryan - we all saw it under "proud supply side blah blah." Again, it scares me how many fascists don't care about the extinction of the middle class and how this government takes money earned by the middle class for tax breaks for teh Paris Hilton class. Have you noticed anything about Michigan's economy in the last 6 years? Hint: Delphi. Drive out the unions that got people a living wage and replace them with "guest workers" willing to work for 1/2. Wake up, pal. Opposing a corrupt regime does not make anyone a "socialist." It's as well thought out as the moron that posted that Hitler was a socialist.

Lee Steele (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 2:48 PM)

Ryan, since you have reposted comment on today's story that was originally posted on yesterday's story, I will repeat my reply... I agree you are free to express your opinion, but I vastly disagree with it. 1) Democrats are not the equivalent of socialists. There are many important differences and any insinuation otherwise is misinformed at best. 2) Government spending has increased more under Bush than it has under any president since World War II. 3) Just because I go and max out every form of credit I can get my hands on doesn't make me rich, it makes me foolish and in a mountain of debt (look at the national deficit - this isn't economic prosperity, this is run-away spending with a mountain of debt - HUGE difference). 4) You stated that "Throughout history there have been many examples of how if you take wealth from those who earned it or have it and give it to those who haven't earned it that your economy will collapse on itself." That is exactly backwards of what really happened in countries that collapsed. In fact, the thing that caused collapse was when people who earned it were left with nothing (or virtually nothing) while a few elitists accumulated all the wealth. If you look throughout history, you will find that to be the actual cause of collapse. For example, the Boston teaparty was caused because the people here in America were having their (the people who earned it) money unfairly taken away by ridiculous taxes in order to benefit the king and his cronies (the elitists). If you read any scholarly paper about the current class structure in America you will find that a) the middle class is shrinking rapidly (those who REALLY earn it); b) the richest among us are getting much more rich compared to everyone else (the elitists); and c) that this trend is not an accident, but is rather intentional (as it always is in countries that collapse). And by the way, socialist governments (a type of government I do not support in any way) require their people to work to earn their money - they just prevent them from earning any more than anyone else (a practice I whole-heartedly disagree with). I'm glad you have an interest in studying history and think that history has much to teach us about our current situation, but history may not hold the lessons you think it does if you look at it more carefully. Do some research of neutral sources and see if you still disagree.

Think About It, TX (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:15 PM)

Hey, on the one hand, you could say I'm 'doing better' now than I was six years ago. And you'd be correct. My earnings are higher now than they were six years ago. Of course, six years ago I was still in school. But I can tell you that any earnings increase I've seen has not at all kept up with the increase in cost-of-living and inflation. Not to mention I have more student debt than you could fathom. Naturally, the Republican Administration slashed student grant programs and government subsidized loans, so that hurts me even more. And let's not forget that health care costs have gone out of control. I've been fortunate to work for some major companies who have great health plans and even so, I've seen benefits slashed and co-pay costs rise stratospherically. And as for people who are "doing better" let me ask you this: If you had to stop working today and you wanted to maintain your current standard of living, HOW LONG COULD YOU HOLD ON FOR? How long could you pay your rent/mortgage? How long could you make debt payments? Car payments? Insurance payments? Food? Travel? Clothing? How many paychecks away from the street are you? You can write anything you want on this board, but admit the truth to yourself.

sebastian, beverly hills, CA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:25 PM)

Just because the American automobile industry is failing because it dramatically overpayed its workers isn't a sign that the economy is bad. Actually I think that is a sign that the economy is working as its supposed to. Eventually the the bloated, inefficient companies (i.e. GM, Ford, and Delphi) start to lose marketshare to streamlined and efficient companies (i.e. Toyota, Honda and Nissan). This forces the bloated companies to get back to a more efficient business strategy, like they are now doing. GM, in the past year, has cut its workforce by 30% and yet they are still producing the same number of cars. That is an obvious sign that they were woefully inefficient. As for those people who lost their jobs (i.e. my father in law and many of my uncles), it is their responsibility to retrain themselves and make themselves desireable to other companies that generally pay higher wages. It takes work and that is something that most people don't like to do. I agree its much easier to be lazy and complain that nobody wants to hire a guy who has only ever worked on the assembly line at GM and made 32.50 an hour, but that kind of laziness doesn't help anyone and that is where people who are willing to work hard and be flexible and adapt to economic situations will always win out over lazy complainers that never actually take the hard steps to improve their lives.

Ryan, Michigan (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:28 PM)

Think About It - Thanks for your thoughtful post. It seems like you actually do have rationale thoughts about this subject. I respectfully disagree with your interpretation of events but at least you have thought this through, unlike many people who post here. I agree with you that some of the spending in the current admistration is terrible. I am fully against the No Child Left Behind crap, and the Medicare Part D crap. I do disagree with you somewhat on your comments about the national debt. As a % of GDP the national debt is lower then it was for much of the 80's and some of the 90's. I believe that if we continue the economic policies without adding to the "large government waste" pile (i.e. NCLB and Medicare Part D) we should have several years of budget surpluses starting in '08. I generally disagree with most of your assertions about history because it depends on how you define middle class and how that definition has changes throughout history. I'm definitely not against people working I'm against redistribution of wealth, something that is common in socialist economies. I wish I could comment more but I should get back to earning my salary:)

Ryan, Michigan (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:38 PM)

Doing better - what a laugh - at 69 plus and husband at 79 plus ... I'm still working full time and not because I want to. Hubby was ill with heart problems and cancer.. WHERE IS OUR GOVT.?? Praying the Dems will be better and my grandchildren don't have to live the way we do.

Barb C, Lake City, Florida (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 3:56 PM)

Ryan - do you have any notion of what you're talking about? BushCo gives millions in tax breaks to those who need it not at all, not to mention SOCIALIST corporate welfare to oil companies with BILLIONS in profits EVERY quarter, and you whine about some guy making $30 hr? Yeah - get back to work. You wouldn't want anyone to think you're lazy. Hail Bush.

Lee Steele (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 5:20 PM)

Be wary of tax and spend types. They will scream we need new funds for more programs, then tax our wallets to death, then, once the program is obsolete, never remove it from the budget. Let's clena out outmoded spending programs, in order to reform our budget.

Jerry: Hanover, CT (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 5:26 PM)

Ryan: I think you're starting from a fundamentally-outdated viewpoint of companies. While it might have been traditionally true that companies only slashed their workforces when they were bloated and inneficient, today's modern global economy is entirely different. It's one thing to say factory workers are lazy. It's another thing when you can close down a factory and open it up in Mexico for half the price. And then reopen in Thailand for half the price of that. And then reopen in China for half the price of that, etc. You might suggest that - hey, that's just capitalism, why pay more when you don't have to? I'd counter - at a certain point a company owes it to the very society that it sells its goods/services to that it will reinvest in that same community by creating jobs there. Otherwise, where will it stop? And in case you work a 'white collar job' (as I do) and are lulled into a false sense of security by that, let me tell you: don't be fooled. All kinds of jobs are being outsourced today: architectural design can be done abroad and e-mailed back and forth. You already know that customer service lines for banks, insurance companies, cable companies, etc. have been moved to India. Legal briefs for the big law firms can all be outsourced to India. It's insane. And no matter how educated you are, your job is no longer safe. That's why the middle class is shrinking so rapidly.

Sebastian, Beverly Hills, CA (Sent Tuesday, October 31, 2006 7:36 PM)

Ryan of Michigan, who posts comments when he is supposed to be working, why don't you posts when you are home? You don't want people to think you are lazy and taking advantage of your bosses, do you? You might get fired and then will have to retrain for another job. The people who worked on assembly lines and according to you are too lazy to actually retrain for a "better" job, didn't have time to waste on their jobs, union or not. You, on the other hand, seem to have plenty of time to waste badmouthing others. Are you perhaps in management?

Jane, Southern Mississippi (Sent Wednesday, November 01, 2006 12:54 AM)

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