November 2006 - Posts
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
"Go, Tom, go!" Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack was greeted by supporters chanting his name in unison at Iowa Wesleyan College as he took the stage to officially announce his candidacy for president this morning. Vilsack, kicking off a five-state tour in his hometown of Mt. Pleasant today, was joined by his wife and children.
With President Bush in the Middle East today, Vilsack called for immediate action to push Iraqis to provide their own security. "We must act and we must act now. We must take our troops out of harm's way and say to the Iraqis, it is your responsibility to protect your families and your communities," Vilsack said.
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is signing up high-caliber advisors and staff. Gov. George Pataki (R) was just in Iraq. Sen. Barack Obama (D) is about to do Leno, address an evangelical conference on AIDS, and publicly take another AIDS test. But one presidential candidate is stepping forth this morning to do what no other has done: actually articulate his vision for the country and his case for why he should be elected.
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) needs the attention he hopes to gain by being the first to dive into the 2008 pool. Up until now, his biggest national role has been as chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, a role that comes with a certain level of cachet, thanks to predecessor Bill Clinton, but is more likely to yield him policy advisors and white papers than campaign contributions and votes.
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President Bush announced at a joint press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki earlier this morning that the United States will stay in Iraq for as long as necessary: "this business about a graceful exit simply just has no realism to it at all." His expressions of strong support for Maliki ("the right guy for Iraq") came after a leaked three-week-old memo by his national security advisor raised doubts about Maliki's abilities, and Maliki canceled a scheduled dinner with Bush last night.
"Senior Bush aides offered at least four explanations for the cancellation - finally dispatching a more junior official to tell reporters late Wednesday that Maliki and Jordan's King Abdullah II had decided mutually that a three-way conversation was not necessary," says the Los Angeles Times.
The Iraq Study Group plans to present its findings to Bush, Congress, and the public on December 6, one day after Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates has his confirmation hearing. Incoming Senate Foreign Relations chair and presidential candidate Joe Biden is expected to then schedule hearings about the group's recommendations.
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Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is giving up on his presidential aspirations, at least for 2008, he announced yesterday. Frist sounded ready to quit Washington altogether as he sticks to his self-imposed two-term limit in the Senate (in an e-mail to supporters, he calls himself a "citizen legislator"). His record as leader is mixed and his second term, particularly since he began eyeing the presidency, has been marked by clumsy moves such as his "diagnosis" via videotape of Terri Schiavo and his flip-flop in favor of expanded federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. He also took a hit from an ongoing SEC investigation into allegations of insider trading after he sold his shares in hospital chain HCA, which his father founded. To the extent that he had gained any ground among social conservatives, his exit from the field leaves that much to be claimed by another candidate.
As for the candidate angling to become the mainstream conservative alternative to frontrunning Sen. John McCain (R), Romney has signed up former top Bush economic advisors Greg Mankiw and Glenn Hubbard. "They have respect," one Washington-based economic analyst tells First Read. "Remember that Mankiw was Mr. Outsourcing, so he's a little toxic politically. But they have respect among economists (what a vital interest group they are!) and to a somewhat lesser extent on Wall Street (just because they aren't identified with markets, not because of their association with Bush)." This analyst adds, "I do think Wall Street is important as a source of funds and credibility, so Romney is signaling that he's a serious player, especially since he's not identified with economic (any?) issues."
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"Business groups, encouraged by the narrowness of the Democrats' majority in the U.S. Senate for the next two years, are laying plans to block or limit efforts to increase taxes on oil-company profits and curb prescription-drug prices," says Bloomberg.
McClatchy delves into the Border Patrol background of Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D), the seemingly likely new House Intelligence Committee chair, noting that "[h]e isn't talking now, but when McClatchy News Service asked him earlier this month whether he wanted the chairmanship, he said, 'Of course. That would be a tremendous challenge that I would look forward to.'" The article also notes that the "ability of the even-tempered Reyes to work with Republicans would help, as would his solid Democratic credentials."
The New York Times profiles new Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who had been planning on being the new majority leader. “[But] he is instead the incoming leader of the new Senate minority, albeit one who, with 49 votes in his pocket, will have the ability to block Democratic initiatives more or less at will. ‘There will be nothing here they can do without some degree of cooperation from a very robust 49-vote minority,’ he said in an interview this week.”
The AP: “While they still can, House Republicans are looking at scheduling a vote next week on a fetal pain abortion bill in a parting shot at incoming majority Democrats and a last bid for loyalty from the GOP's base of social conservatives.”
In NORTH CAROLINA, the AP writes, Democrat Larry Kissell conceded to incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) “after the initial phase of a hand recount showed the result was not likely to change.”
So by our count, Democrats now have a 232-202 advantage in the House, with only one uncalled, undecided race that could possibly change hands: the run off in TEXAS between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and challenger Ciro Rodriguez (D). Speaking of which, the state of Texas is asking the Justice Department to approve the December 12 date for the run off -- which is being opposed by Latino groups because “Dec. 12 is the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe, the patron saint of Mexico and Latin America.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Barack Obama seems to be everywhere -- he was in Iowa for Sen. Tom Harkin's steak fry; he campaigned with virtually every Democratic candidate last fall; and as we mentioned earlier, he's heading to New Hampshire next month. And now this: NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" has announced that Obama will be on the program this Friday.
It's unlikely that Obama will reveal his 2008 intentions to Leno. But also remember that it was on the "Tonight Show" where Arnold Schwarzenegger first announced in 2003 that he was running for California governor.
From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC News confirms, per a source close to the senator, that Sen. Bill Frist will announce today that he will not run for president.
The Hotline reports that Frist will hold a press conference in his home state of Tennessee.
Frist, who is also a doctor, released a statement saying that after serving in the Senate for 12 years, he will return home to live a "private life" so that he can go back to his "professional roots as a healer."
“In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close. I do not intend to run for president in 2008," Frist writes.
He adds that he and his wife Karyn will take a "sabbatical from public life" and that in the interim he hopes to travel on "medical mission trips as a doctor around the world to serve those in poverty, in famine, and in civil war."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
President Bush heads to Amman to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki as a leaked November 8 memo written by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley has Hadley questioning whether Maliki is up to the job, the Iraq Study Group tries to finish up its work, and the Pentagon prepares a $127 billion-plus supplemental spending request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the broader war on terror.
NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that per a member of the Iraq Study Group, they are "pretty far along" in agreeing on draft proposals. They had planned to complete their work yesterday, Mitchell reports, but failed to reach a consensus on key recommendations, so they're meeting again this morning. An official close to the deliberations says there are new ideas in the draft report, but some members of the panel are becoming increasingly discouraged about the odds that the White House and Congress will accept them. The group's target for releasing a report is next week, and the tentative plan is for co-chairs Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton to go to the White House and the Hill to brief principals on the morning of the release, then unveil their findings at a news conference. Earlier this week, the group paused to pose for a class photo taken for a magazine (not Vanity Fair) and shot by celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz.
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The New York Times was the first to report on the Hadley memo.
USA Today, without mentioning the memo, nevertheless previews the Amman summit by reporting that "analysts say there is growing evidence that al-Maliki is not up to the formidable task of bringing stability to his country."
The Financial Times, noting a "rapidly hardening consensus" that Iraq is in a civil war, also points out that leaks from the Iraq Study Group and comments by some members "indicate its findings are likely to be sharply at odds with Mr Bush's insistence that the US can still achieve 'victory'... The report is expected to include an option for the 'phased redeployment' of the 145,000-strong US forces in Iraq and direct talks with Iraq's neighbours to stabilise the country."
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The Hill reports that "union representatives, liberal leaders, and aides to House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) met yesterday to begin work on a broad lobbying push to promote Pelosi’s 100-legislative-hour agenda with a campaign expected to mimic the one that helped defeat [Bush’s] proposed reforms to Social Security... Party strategists are speculating that they will have a brief window of legislative productivity before a curtain of partisanship falls across town... for the 2008 presidential election."
Pelosi's "decision to bypass Hastings could damage Pelosi's strained relations with the Congressional Black Caucus," speculates the Boston Globe. "The caucus clashed with Pelosi earlier this year over her efforts to press Representative William J. Jefferson of Louisiana to resign his primary committee post when investigators found $90,000 in his freezer."
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The Boston Globe reports that Romney will base his 2008 effort in Boston after all, rather than in Michigan, saying his team "is laying plans to run his presidential campaign from a three-story waterfront building at the edge of Boston's North End."
Two former chairs of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors and a former member of Vice President Cheney's domestic policy team have signed up with him.
As the Republican governors gather in Miami, some GOP operatives are pointing fingers at the RGA's decision-making during the midterms, arguing that the committee didn't allocate its resources as effectively as it could have.
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In FLORIDA, Sarasota County elections officials said they found no malfunctions in their voting machines, which has been the source of controversy in the race between Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings. Despite the tests, "there were still no clues about why a high number of voters -- more than 18,000 -- did not have votes recorded in the Buchanan-Jennings race on Election Day... But the tests were already being questioned by the Democratic contender in the race, as well as fellow Democrats in the U.S. House -- which looks more and more likely to get involved."
In NORTH CAROLINA, the recount in the race between incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) and challenger Larry Kissell (D) begins today and will last until Thursday; Kissell trails by 329 votes. “A full hand recount will be ordered if the results in the sampled precincts show that that there is potential for the race's outcome to be reversed.”
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A Democratic House leadership aide says incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) that he will not become chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Sen. Barack Obama (D) will be making his first-ever trip to New Hampshire on December 10, when he'll appear at a New Hampshire Democratic Party "election celebration" in Manchester. The party is looking to celebrate its big wins in the state on November 6.
"He's never, ever, ever put his foot in the state," said Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs. "It was a wonderful invitation that we decided to accept."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) is expected to pay a call on incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi today in her (soon-to-be-former) Capitol office. Hastings is expected to lay out his case for why he should become the next chair of the House Intelligence Committee. His appointment is in some doubt because he was impeached as a judge before getting elected to Congress. The time of the meeting is TBD; Pelosi was asked about the matter at her photo-op with the Italian deputy prime minister, and she declined to talk about it.
Pelosi did have a few comments about Iraq, however, saying "I feel sad" that President Bush is "resorting" to his rhetoric of blaming al Queda for the level of violence there. "If the President persists on the course that he is on... then that will make it more difficult" to work in a bipartisan way, she said.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
At a press conference in Estonia earlier this morning, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports, President Bush: blamed al Qaeda for fomenting sectarian violence; declined to engage on NBC's use of the term "civil war" to describe the violence; outlined questions he will ask Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki in Jordan later this week; said Iraq has been in this current phase of violence for about nine months (contradicting National Security Advisor Steve Hadley's calling it a "new phase"); said Iraq is sovereign and thus can have its own meetings with Iran and Syria; and again said that Iran must stop nuclear enrichment.
Domestic politicking isn't stopping at the water's edge. Preceding Bush today at an NGO-run conference coinciding with the NATO summit will be presidential contender Rudy Giuliani (R), currently the most popular politician in America, per a new poll. Also, Karl Rove is making an unusual appearance on this trip. White House spokesman Tony Snow said Rove is along because “there’s still plenty of politics going on back in Washington.” He said Rove has been e-mailing and calling Republicans trying to hash out an agenda for the lame duck session, and also monitoring a House runoff in Texas.
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The White House yesterday "conceded that Iraq has moved into a dangerous new phase of warfare requiring changes in strategy," and "U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan appealed for immediate steps to prevent the country from crumbling into all-out civil war," says the Washington Post. "The White House again resisted assertions that Iraq is now in a civil war, but that stance is increasingly hard to defend." The Post reports that Saudi Arabia "basically summoned Vice President Cheney for talks over the weekend," whereas the "visit was originally portrayed as U.S. outreach to its oil-rich Arab ally."
Per McClatchy, some regional experts think that Iraq's "cascading civil war" is beyond Washington's control. "If Iraq is to hold together and avoid an all-out bloodbath, they say, it will be because the country's warring factions step back from the brink and forge some sort of political compromise. That seems like a pipe dream after a weekend of the worst violence for Iraqi civilians since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion."
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"Bush will try to work out a deal on spending with the new Democratic majority on Capitol Hill, but will be prepared to veto bills that exceed his total budget or that slice away at defense needs," Bush budget director Rob Portman tells the Washington Times. Portman also suggests that "a center-right coalition could emerge on issues such as spending and extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts."
Bloomberg's Kevin Hassett predicts that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's overtures to Democrats on fixing Social Security won't result in cooperation. "What Paulson is about to learn is that it will be easy to get Democrats to the table on Social Security. He need only let them write the legislation and agree to every term they dictate. He can offer cosmetic face-saving measures that make the legislation look like a victory for the president. But substantively, he will have to cave on everything."
USA Today writes from the Texas border that the border fence "has come to reflect the disconnect between many landowners here and officials in Washington who see the project as a key part of the nation's strategy to slow illegal immigration. Here, where the impact of illegal immigration is greatest, the fence is widely viewed as an economic and environmental threat... The bill Bush signed does not include money to build the fence, and it's unclear how aggressively Congress will pursue the multibillion-dollar project once Democrats assume leadership of the House and Senate in January."
"...[C]ongressional workers are getting ready" for a raft of hearings on big government contracts, particularly defense contracts, says the Washington Post. "In September, the Project on Government Oversight, a watchdog group, began holding seminars for Hill workers of both parties on how to conduct investigations, including sessions on the anatomy of a government contract and skits in which oversight hearings were acted out."
The Chicago Tribune says that Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has called “for an official investigation into whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert broke the law by pushing for federal funding of a highway project near land he owned west of Chicago” -- which helped Hastert and two partners earn a profit of more than $3 million. “An aide to Hastert declined to comment Monday... But when the Tribune reported the story this summer, Hastert spokesman Ron Bonjean said the speaker simply made a well-timed real estate investment on the land, located between 3 and 5 miles from the highway route.”
The Houston Chronicle writes that, per exit polls taken by the William C. Velasquez Institute, Hispanic voters deserted the GOP on election day more because of dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and job creation than over immigration issues. “‘It was really the totality of issues that drove people to the polls,’ said Michael Bustamante, spokesman for the Velasquez Institute and the Latino Policy Coalition.”
Per a new Quinnipiac survey, Giuliani is the most popular politician in America. "The survey asked respondents to rate their feelings about the 20 leaders on a 'thermometer reading' scale of 0 to 100. Mr. Giuliani finished with a 64.2 rating. Trailing closely were Sens. Barack Obama, Illinois Democrat, and John McCain, Arizona Republican, who tallied 58.8 and 57.7. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was the top-ranking woman in the survey, finishing just behind Mr. McCain with a 56.1 rating... Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York Democrat, finished ninth in the survey with a 49-point ranking" -- and Sen. John Kerry (D) was last.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States, which is co-hosting the NGO conference in Riga that Giuliani is addressing today, is making transcripts and video available on the web.
NBC political analyst Charlie Cook, in his CongressDaily AM column, says that whether or not Giuliani runs is the biggest question on the Republican side -- along with whether or not he can win the nomination if he does in fact run.
CONTINUED >>
Some Wall Street analysts say that the Dow's 158.46-point drop yesterday, its worst in more than four months, "was long overdue given the Dow's uninterrupted run-up in recent weeks."
CNBC's Patti Domm points out that Fed junkies not only get to hear from chair Ben Bernanke today on the nation's economic outlook, but also from former chair Alan Greenspan, who speaks at a separate New York luncheon. Bernanke could be newsier, but certainly the markets will be listening to what both have to say. Greenspan will take questions; Bernanke will not.
Now that Ohio GOP Reps. Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt have been declared the winners of their races (though Pryce faces an automatic recount), the breakdown in the House currently stands at 232-201. The two undecided contests are in North Carolina, where GOP Rep. Robin Hayes is leading by 329 votes after a machine recount, but a manual recount begins on Wednesday, and in Texas, where GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla is competing in a runoff against former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez. The other undecided race is the runoff in Louisiana between Jefferson and Carter, but the seat won't change hands since both are Democrats.
The Columbus Dispatch writes that Pryce’s Democratic opponent, Mary Jo Kilroy, isn’t conceding just yet. “She said she’s not sure a recount will change the outcome, but at least it will be a worthwhile double-check of new voting equipment that was used for the first time in a general election.”
And although the AP has declared Schmidt the victor in her race, opponent Victoria Wulsin (D) has refused to concede -- but the contest should be certified by today, the Cincinnati Enquirer says.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Congress remains out for another week while Bush engages in some high-stakes negotiations abroad, first at the NATO summit in Latvia and then in Jordan at his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The White House calls the meeting part of Bush's effort to consult with a wide array of sources in deciding the best way forward in Iraq. It comes as the bipartisan Iraq Study Group and the Bush Administration near completion of their respective reports.
The White House is objecting this morning to descriptions of the Iraq conflict as a civil war. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, "The violence is primarily centered around Baghdad and Baghdad security and the increased training of Iraqi Security Forces is at the top of the agenda when [Bush and Maliki] meet later this week." Why does the terminology matter? Because, among other reasons, the greater the perception among Americans that Iraqis are fighting amongst themselves, the greater the doubts may be about continued US involvement and the greater the sentiment, perhaps, in favor of troop withdrawal. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in mid-October found 40% saying
Iraqis are fighting each other in a civil war, while 31% said Iraqis and foreign terrorists are fighting US troops, and 26% said it's some of both.
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"President Bush's agenda at a NATO summit this week will include
pressing alliance members to increase defense spending," per the AP. "Aides
say many U.S. allies are ill-equipped for modern military operations."
The Bush-Maliki meeting later this week "is fraught with danger for
Maliki. Both Shiite and Sunni leaders have criticized the prime minister;
one prominent Sunni religious leader warned that the violence in Iraq
could swell throughout the Middle East if the global community continues
to back Maliki. Adding to the tension, Shiite politicians led by
anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who form a key constituency for Maliki,
are threatening to boycott the government if Maliki goes ahead with
Thursday's meeting."
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"As President Bush struggles to recover" from the "thrashing" his party
took on election day, "his advisers are studying the Clinton and Reagan
models for lessons to revive his presidency," says the Washington Post.
"...[V]eterans of past administrations see patterns that offer hope
even to badly weakened presidents such as Bush. Adversaries who assume
that Bush has been permanently crippled by the Democratic takeover of
Congress, they say, misunderstand the opportunities still available to
him." For one thing, Bush might "be eager to veto Democratic spending
bills."
As we've noted before, though, one area on which Bush's prospects have
improved is on comprehensive immigration reform. The Boston Globe
reports that Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) and "other lawmakers are planning a
broader meeting this week of about 12 leading senators from both parties" to
discuss it. "They are hoping to have Congress vote on a final
immigration bill by mid-2007... Though no specific proposals have been floated,
the bill passed this year by the Senate is a likely starting point."
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"Given that GOP conservatives have prevented their colleagues on the House and Senate Appropriations panels from moving forward with plans to pass the nine remaining spending bills as an omnibus package, Republicans leaders are now expected to punt the issue to next year’s Democratic-led Congress rather than take the time to piece together major
spending legislation," Roll Call reports. "A CR that lasts until the beginning of February, or even the beginning of March, could put Democratic appropriators on a collision course with the Bush administration’s fiscal 2008 budget, which... is likely to include a request for an
emergency war supplemental spending bill that exceeds $100 million."
Rep. Tom Davis (R) plans to "make a run for" passage of his bill that would give the District of Columbia a voting representative in the House and balance out that safe Democratic seat by giving another seat to reliably Republican Utah. Legal scholars debate whether or not it's
constitutional, but "most observers believe President Bush would sign it, even though he said earlier this month, 'It's the first I've heard of it.'"
The Wall Street Journal says of some Democrats' push to create an
independent ethics board, "Opponents say such an office would encroach on
Congress's responsibility to police itself and could create an
unnecessary and expensive bureaucracy."
In his Sunday column, Bob Novak writes that newly elected House
Democratic Caucus chair Rahm Emanuel “has sent colleagues a one-page memo
emphasizing 'real lobbying and ethics reform' as the key to his party's
future electoral success. Emanuel… in the memo cited eight extra
seats won by Democrats in Republican districts because of scandals."
CONTINUED >>
Iowa Republicans have set August 11, 2007 as the date for their
signature straw poll at Iowa State in Ames.
The Washington Post's Broder reviews the Romney record as governor of a
state that may be more of an albatross than a boon for him in 2008.
"Aides to Arizona Sen. John McCain and [Romney] have begun interviewing
potential Iowa staff," per the Des Moines Register, which also reported
yesterday that Sen. Barack Obama (D) is, too.
McCain could face some familiar-seeming tough opposition in South
Carolina. The State reports that Romney has hired a consultant to his
presidential campaign who is "generally recognized as the architect behind
[President] Bush’s hard-hitting campaign in S.C. in 2000."
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/special_packages/election2006/16097773.htm
CONTINUED >>
The busiest week in several is ahead for the markets, CNBC's Patti Domm
notes. Leaving the lull of Thanksgiving week, investors will focus on
a big batch of important economic data that will show how the consumer
and the economy are faring. Retailers' sales, housing data, a second
look at third-quarter GDP data, and monthly auto sales top the list.
The Wall Street Journal says "U.S. auto sales are slowing and an
increasing number of forecasts say sales could fall next year to their lowest
level in nearly a decade."
Reviewing the Democratic agenda for the middle class, the Hartford
Courant says disagreement between Democrats and conservatives "over the
state of the middle class is one that, along with U.S. policies toward
Iraq, is destined to dominate congressional debate when members return
next month and continue well into next year."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today reviews lessons learned from the midterms by campaign
consultants and political scientists, including: that the White House's
strategy of cultivating the base at the expense of the middle failed, as did
their efforts to appeal to minorities; that a seemingly solid
Democratic Northeast now helps the party balance out a Republican South; and
that positive economic stats didn't make voters feel better about the
economy.
The manual recount starts today in North Carolina's 8th district, where
Rep. Robin Hayes (R) leads Democratic challenger Larry Kissell by 329
votes after a machine recount was finished before Thanksgiving. Kissell
has requested the manual recount, in which officials will hand count
ballots in 3% of precincts. If the sampled precinct recount varies from
the machine recount numbers, then a manual recount of all precincts
will be ordered, NBC's Doug Adams reports.
CONTINUED >>
First Read is taking a little post-election breather.
We will be posting your comments and updating the site as news warrants, but won't be publishing at 9:00 am ET again until Monday, November 27.
We wish all our regular readers, and those who might be stopping by for the first time, a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has decided to pick up and move her suite of offices across National Statuary Hall to the space now occupied by outgoing GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert.
Democratic speakers and leaders have been in the suite where Pelosi is currently situated for years. Pelosi herself has often marveled at how she finds herself in the same office used by one of her personal heroes, Tip O'Neill. But construction on the Capitol Visitors Center has shrunk that space considerably, and though Pelosi was known to harbor desires to stay where she is, her staff was insistent. Plus, the Hastert space on the west side of the Capitol has a balcony that affords a dramatic view down the National Mall.
So it turns out that she really will need to measure the drapes -- as President Bush suggested Democrats were doing in the weeks before the election.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Another potential presidential candidate is weighing in on Iraq. Retired Gen. Wes Clark (D) lays out his proposal in a USA Today op-ed: "The right approach is a coordinated diplomatic, legal, economic and security campaign drawing upon broader dialogue in the region and intensified political work inside Iraq," which would be achieved by establishing "an effective, sustained shuttle diplomacy within the region;" forming "a high-level interagency diplomatic team, representing the White House and secretaries of State and Defense and led by an experienced, respected diplomat;" and beginning "talks within Iraq, and with all its neighbors, based on a clear set of principles outlined by the team. The goal would be to seek the commitments necessary to achieve our aims inside Iraq and also advance U.S. interests in the region."
Democrats, meanwhile, are alleging that GOP Sen. John McCain's critique of the Bush Administration's approach to Iraq this past weekend represents a flip-flop. A longtime supporter of the war, McCain said on ABC that the Administration's current approach isn't working, calling it a "failed policy." He continues to press for more US troops in the region.
From NBC's Mark Hudspeth
Sen. Barack Obama (D) will address the Chicago Council on Global Affairs today. Per an advance look at his text, Obama will lay out a plan for Iraq that includes: 1) a phased redeployment of US troops from Iraq on a timetable that would begin in four to six months; 2) dedication of the remaining troops to protecting critical infrastructure and American enclaves, and to serving as a rapid reaction force; 3) a link between economic aid to tangible progress in reducing sectarian violence; and 4) a regional conference with US, Iraqi, Syrian, Turkish, Jordanian, and British leaders.
Obama also will make note of three lessons he thinks the United States should take from its experience in Iraq: 1) that the US government should be more modest in its belief that it can impose democracy on a country through military force; 2) that it is not enough to simply plan for war -- you must also plan for success; and 3) that the defeat of international terror will require the help of many nations.
From staff and wire reports
More developments on the 2008 front. On the Democratic side, Sen. Joe Biden told NBC's Matt Lauer on TODAY this morning that he plans to "jump in the water, I guess officially, sometime after the first of the year." Biden hasn't exactly been coy about his intention to run. Indeed, his frank talk about a presidential bid has reportedly drawn the attention of the FEC, which is keeping an ear out in case Biden starts sounding so much like a candidate that he needs to take some formal bureaucratic steps to back that up.
And Sen. John Kerry (D) said on FOX yesterday that his botched joke about President Bush's Iraq policy in late October won't get in the way should he decide to run. Kerry also said he'd be deciding "somewhere around the turn of the year."
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) of Massachusetts, meanwhile, is trying to use his final weeks in office in Massachusetts to build a national platform by calling on state legislators to vote on a same-sex marriage ban, or else he'll file a lawsuit asking the state's highest court to order that such a question be placed on the 2008 ballot. Legislators left for the year without voting on a ban, but have one day left to do so: their final day in session is January 2. Romney's term expires two days later.
From NBC's Doug Adams
By NBC's count, the Democrats currently hold a 232-198 edge in the House, with five races still undecided. All are Republican-held seats. Here's the latest on all the undecided races (two of which we should hear about by the end of today):
New Mexico's 1st district. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) holds about an 875-vote edge over challenger Patricia Madrid (D). Madrid has been steadily picking up votes since beginning the canvass down by over 1,100 votes. Republicans last night again claimed victory, saying Wilson's lead appeared safe. They appear to be correct. Election workers are finishing up counting provisional ballots today, and final results should be announced tonight, according to Bernalillo County officials.
CONTINUED >>
Special to First Read from Hotline
James Carville has been generating a wave of publicity in criticizing DNC Chair Howard Dean for not sufficiently funding competitive House races. He’s claimed the Democrats could have won another dozen seats if the DNC allocated more money in the campaign’s final weeks. The DNC has pushed back on Carville’s charges. Who’s right?
Fourteen Democratic candidates lost by two points or less, but many of the campaigns were funded to the hilt by the Democratic House campaign committee (DCCC). Lois Murphy certainly can’t blame her loss in PA 06 on inadequate funding; the DCCC spent over $3 million on her behalf. Patricia Madrid (NM 01) also had plenty of money – her razor-thin loss came because of an embarrassing gaffe at a debate. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH 15), Darcy Burner (WA 08), Phil Kellam (VA 02), Christine Jennings, and Tammy Duckworth (IL 06) were all among the top-funded candidates by the DCCC. (In Jennings’ case, the money was funneled through the Florida Democratic party.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
There was a vaguely familiar figure loitering with reporters outside the House Republican leadership elections this morning. It was a dapper young man with an easy smile who stood chatting with a small group of friends, and at length the press mob became aware of his presence. Voices were lowered and furtive gestures were made in his direction.
The mystery man was Kirk Fordham, the former chief of staff for former Rep. Mark Foley (R), and a central figure in the scandal that contributed to the fact that down the hall and behind closed doors Republicans were electing a minority leader and not a speaker. It turns out he was on the Hill tying up ends left loose after his hasty resignation as the scandal exploded. He was fresh off a two-and-a-half week vacation and seemed at ease.
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From NBC's Carrie Dann
A crowd of conservatives in Washington were doing a strange thing last night. Less than ten days after a bruising defeat at the polls that cost the GOP its dominance on both sides of the Capitol Rotunda, one of the nation's more prominent conservative groups got together and, well, had a few good laughs.
The Federalist Society, an organization of legal professionals, students, and scholars who advocate for a strict interpretation of the Constitution, is celebrating its 25th birthday at their annual conference in Washington, DC this week. So, instead of simply drowning their sorrows via the pappardelle pasta with beurre blanc served at last night's black-tie banquet, the attendees found humor in some unexpected places.
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
In a stand-pat election, Republican House members chose John Boehner as minority leader and Roy Blunt as whip, keeping their leadership team intact (except for Dennis Hastert's departure from it).
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
On a day when Nancy Pelosi took the first of two official steps toward becoming the first-ever woman Speaker of the House, she also took a self-inflicted political hit when her endorsed candidate for majority leader went down in defeat after a bitter contest that has temporarily cast a shadow over Democrats' plans for ethics reform, split the caucus, and left some hard feelings. Pelosi friends and allies say her decision to weigh in so heavily for old friend John Murtha shows her emphasis on loyalty, but that raises the question of whether loyalty could occasionally make her tone-deaf (a question that also comes up once in awhile about decision-making at other end of Pennsylvania Avenue).
House Republicans take their turn filling leadership slots today. Some races have been contested, but none have matched the acrimony of the Hoyer-Murtha bout. The outcome likely to be the most symbolically and strategically significant will be the election of Rep. John Boehner as minority leader.
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President Bush is in Vietnam, where he's returning to talk of his freedom agenda, which was set aside in the months leading up to the midterm elections. He continues to be dogged by questions about the situation in Iraq and similarities to the Vietnam war, and said in Hanoi that lessons from Vietnam can be applied in Iraq, including, "We'll succeed unless we quit." The arguably awkward implication of this statement comes after Bush's staff posted the wrong Vietnamese flag on the White House website, and after Bush failed to get Congress to pass the Vietnam trade pact he had wanted to tout upon his arrival, all giving the impression that this trip is a little snake-bit.
The New York Times: “In private, some White House officials concede it is spectacularly poor timing. Just as Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1968, Mr. Bush has ousted his longtime defense secretary and nominated a realist with ‘fresh eyes’ to replace him. Just like President Johnson in 1968, he is conducting a broad rethinking of strategy, and is hearing options he does not like.” More: “His aides argue that the analogies between these wars are mostly false. The comparisons will nonetheless be the unavoidable subtext of Mr. Bush’s every move as he travels.”
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"If the Hoyer camp's head count was correct going into yesterday's secret balloting, Pelosi and her allies may not have swayed a single vote for Murtha," reports the Washington Post.
The Post's Milbank: "For Pelosi, who led Democrats back to a majority in the House after 12 years, yesterday should have been a coronation for the first woman to be speaker. Instead, her party had plunged into fratricide, and cable news was running nonstop clips of Murtha talking with FBI agents posing as sheiks in the Abscam sting."
"Some Democrats said that an ally like Mr. Murtha in the No. 2 spot would give Mrs. Pelosi unchecked power," per the Washington Times. "But most Democrats said they opposed Mr. Murtha because they had run campaigns on a promise to clean up corruption in Washington."
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McClatchy writes that despite Bush's public efforts to give the appearance that he's willing to work with Democrats, his agenda says otherwise. The "agenda he has sent to Congress since then is full of Republican proposals that have no chance of winning bipartisan approval. More likely such items will enrage Democrats, rally his conservative base and appear to be intended to portray Democrats as obstructionist."
Bush's choice for deputy assistant HHS secretary of population affairs, Eric Keroack, is an OBGYN who "worked at a Christian pregnancy-counseling organization that regards the distribution of contraceptives as 'demeaning to women'... The appointment, which does not require Senate confirmation, was the latest provocative personnel move by the White House since Democrats won control of Congress in this month's midterm elections."
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At a press avail in Hanoi, President Bush referenced the lake "where John McCain got pulled out," calling it "one of the most poignant moments of the drive... And he's a friend of ours; he suffered a lot as a result of his imprisonment, and yet, we passed the place where he was, literally, saved, in one way, by the people pulling him out."
In his twin speeches yesterday, "McCain cited Reagan frequently as the guidepost for the future of the party. In contrast, he never mentioned Bush by name, although he was implicitly critical of the administration's conduct of the war in Iraq. By choosing two conservative audiences..., McCain demonstrated his desire to mend relations with the right."
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By our count, Democrats currently hold a 232-198 advantage over Republicans in the House, with five undecided races:
-- NM-1 (where GOP Rep. Heather Wilson holds a lead over Democrat Patricia Madrid)
-- NC-8 (where GOP Rep. Robin Hayes holds a lead over Democrat Larry Kissell)
-- OH-2 (where GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt holds a lead over Democrat Victoria Wulsin)
-- OH-15 (where GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce holds a lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy)
-- TX-23 (where GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla is in a runoff against Democrat Ciro Rodriguez)
Even though the AP called a Florida race in favor of Vern Buchanan (R), he and Democrat Christine Jennings (D) are involved in a recount down in Florida. And a final undecided seat -- the runoff in Louisiana between incumbent Bill Jefferson and challenger Karen Carter -- will stay in Democratic hands since both are Democrats.
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Current House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer has defeated Rep. John Murtha for the post of majority leader in the 110th Congress. The preliminary vote was 149-86. The contest became acrimonious in the final days as Leader Nancy Pelosi weighed in with an endorsement of Murtha, and as Pelosi and other Murtha supporters began leaning heavily on the rank-and-file to vote for him. There may be lingering hard feelings as Democrats prepare to control Congress in January. More to come.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
At this rate, maybe it won't take Republicans too long to win their way back to majority status. For their part, they aren't lacking for ambitious colleagues like Sen. John McCain and former Speaker Newt Gingrich who are looking to lead them out of the wilderness under the banner of reform. For Democrats' part, their contest for House majority leader has posed an unexpectedly big distraction which has temporarily undercut their efforts to look like the clean alternative to the recently ousted GOP.
It hasn't helped Democrats that incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi's endorsed candidate for leader saw his brush with the old Abscam scandal all over the news, then was quoted calling ethics reform "total crap." Addressing a group of moderate Democrats on Tuesday night, Rep. John Murtha said, "Even though I think the ethics bill is total crap, I'm going to work to pass it anyway because that is what Nancy wants."
"There's a lot of crap going on in Congress all the time," Murtha told MSNBC's Chris Matthews yesterday by way of explanation. "Guys violate the law, some do. But the problem we have is a few people violate the law and then the whole Congress has to be changed." He added, "I agree with what Nancy's trying to do... What I said was,... it is total crap that we have to deal with an issue like this when we've got a war going on..."
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President Bush is in Singapore. His top military commander in the Middle East appeared on Capitol Hill yesterday and "urged Congress to resist withdrawing American troops from Iraq any time soon, a stance that drew sharp disagreement from top Republicans and Democrats."
Gen. John "Abizaid was met with deep skepticism and doubt in the Senate, where even Republicans who have supported the war effort pointedly questioned his judgment on troop levels and his optimistic assessment of the capabilities of the Iraqi security forces," says the Los Angeles Times. "The criticism from such a broad spectrum of lawmakers - coming at the first Capitol Hill hearing on Iraq since Republicans were trounced in the midterm election and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld resigned - signaled a more active role by members of Congress in challenging the Bush administration about the war's conduct. Until now, Rumsfeld has been the primary lightning rod."
The Chicago Tribune notes that “Abizaid offered a more
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...when you make a show of renominating a bunch of judicial candidates who have no chance of getting confirmed. Among the names the White House sent to the Senate yesterday were some of the most controversial nominees they've ever put forth, including Terrence Boyle, William Haynes II, and William Myers III. The White House also nominated former Rep. Jim Rogan, one of the Clinton impeachment managers, to become a US District Judge for California. Some Senate Democrats called it a "slap in the face."
"The move heartened conservatives who worried that Bush would scale back his ambition to move courts to the right and outraged liberals, who called it a violation of the spirit of bipartisanship promised since Democrats captured Congress. Both sides saw it as a possible harbinger for the remainder of Bush's presidency, particularly if a Supreme Court vacancy opens," says the Washington Post.
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McClatchy writes that the "new Senate Republican leadership team represents a return to pragmatism. They're seasoned GOP parliamentarians who are expected to cross party lines and buck the White House more often than did retiring Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., who concentrated more on pleasing the president and the Republican Party base that is key to his presidential hopes for 2008."
Beyond Lott, the Houston Chronicle says that the rest of the new Senate GOP leadership has a Texan imprint to it. “Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison moved up a notch to the fourth-ranked Republican Policy Committee chairmanship, and Sen. John Cornyn joined the leadership for the first time, replacing Hutchison as Republican Conference vice chairman.” (And we'd note how many are Southerners, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.)
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House Democrats fear there will be lasting damage from the Hoyer-Murtha bout no matter who wins. "The race has reinforced longstanding divisions between different factions in the caucus, members and observers said, and has diverted their attention from a positive message they hoped to project just days after winning control of the House." Pelosi is pushing hard for Murtha, "raising the majority leader race with freshman during the same introductory meeting where they discuss committee assignments."
The Washington Post says of Murtha's "total crap" remark, "Pelosi aides stressed that Murtha remains dedicated to the package's passage, but the dust-up rekindled memories of past Murtha votes. He was one of 12 Democrats to vote against campaign finance legislation written by Sens John McCain... and Russell Feingold..., and he was one of four Democrats who opposed an ethics package earlier this year that was designed to contrast the Democrats' tough stance with a weaker Republican bill. He also pushed a rules change to block outside groups from filing complaints to the House ethics committee."
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The Los Angeles Times says of McCain's big day, "McCain's speech today to GOPAC... is intended as his first broad assessment of the state of the GOP and how he would lead it. A source familiar with the speech said McCain aspired to fill the post-midterm political vacuum in the same way Ronald Reagan did in a fabled speech after the GOP lost the White House in 1976." The story also notes that conservative lawyers like those who belong to the Federalist Society were "furious with McCain and others in a bipartisan group of senators, nicknamed the Gang of 14, who last year blocked a bid by GOP leaders to deny Democrats the right to filibuster judicial nominations."
Outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has hired GOP veteran ad-maker Alex Castellanos as he gears up for a possible presidential run, reports the Boston Globe, which profiles Castellanos' career.
In the meantime, Romney is working with conservative groups on planning an anti-same sex marriage rally for Sunday. "Supporters of same-sex marriage accused Romney of planning the rally to advance his political ambitions."
Cheney headlines a farewell tribute to retiring Senate GOP Leader Bill Frist tonight.
By our count, Democrats currently hold a 232-197 advantage over Republicans in the House, with six undecided races:
-- NM-1 (where GOP Rep. Heather Wilson holds a lead over Democrat Patricia Madrid)
-- NC-8 (where GOP Rep. Robin Hayes holds a lead over Democrat Larry Kissell)
-- OH-2 (where GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt holds a lead over Democrat Victoria Wulsin)
-- OH-15 (where GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce holds a lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy)
-- TX-23 (where GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla is in a runoff against Democrat Ciro Rodriguez)
-- WY-AL (where GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin holds a lead over Democrat Gray Trauner)
Even though the AP called the race in favor of Vern Buchanan (R), he and Democrat Christine Jennings (D) are involved in a recount down in Florida. And a final undecided seat -- the runoff in Louisiana between Rep. Bill Jefferson and challenger Karen Carter -- won't change parties because both are Democrats.
Former Rep. Mark Foley's father passed away on Tuesday. Funeral services are set for Saturday.
And the Houston Chronicle follows up on an earlier report by Roll Call that seven congressional aides who worked for Tom DeLay resigned after serving his replacement, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, for about 24 hours. “Kevin Madden, a former DeLay spokesman who works for Boehner and was not among the seven, said the holdover staffers ‘felt like they were treated terribly.’ He would not elaborate.”
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Jack Murtha, who is locked in a fierce fight with Rep. Steny Hoyer to be the next majority leader, last night told a group of moderate Democrats that ethics reform "is total crap," according to a Democrat who was present.
"Even though I think the ethics bill is total crap, I'm going to work to pass it anyway because that is what Nancy [Pelosi] wants," Murtha said during a campaign pitch to the Blue Dog Democrats, a group of 44 fiscally conservative Democrats.
Pelosi, who is one of Murtha's most loyal and steadfast supporters, has run against "the culture of corruption" and "draining the swamp that is Washington." But, the blunt Murtha has his own ethical baggage, which was the focus of a story by Senior Investigative Correspondent Lisa Myers on Nightly News last night.
Also, as we noted this morning, MSNBC's Tom Curry reported that when asked whether his baggage would make him the wrong leader at this point, Murtha said, "Wait ‘til you see the ethics package we’ll pass and I’ll support.” When reminded he didn’t support the last one, he added, “But you’ll see me support the next one."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Republican senators say that Trent Lott narrowly won the No. 2 spot in the Senate GOP leadership because of his vast experience as a former majority leader. One GOP senator said the results of the midterm elections played a role. By falling into the minority status, the senator said, it puts Republicans in more of a reactive position where experience is critical. This senator cited Lott's negotiating and tactical skills as well as his "deep understanding of the [Senate] rules," which are key to moving or blocking legislation. And then there are "the deep personal relationships" Lott developed with members over the years.
Just yesterday, the man Lott defeated for the post -- Lamar Alexander -- claimed that he had the commitments of support from more than half of the Republican caucus. So what happened? One theory expressed by a senator is that many people may have promised Alexander their support while he was running against Rick Santorum (who lost his reelection bid last week.) Lott didn't officially enter the race until two days ago. And equally important, the voting is done by secret ballot.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It's official: Trent Lott narrowly defeated Lamar Alexander in the race for whip, which will make him the second in command of the GOP Senate leadership. At a just-concluded press conference announcing the Republicans' new leadership team, reporters asked Lott about his return to power. But he refused to answer. "The spotlight falls on him," Lott replied, pointing to Sen. Mitch McConnell, who will become the party's Senate minority leader.
But conservative blogs aren't as deferential -- they're not too happy about Lott's new leadership role. Said Jonah Goldberg on National Review Online: "If it's true that Lott has won his race, I think it's just another sign of how Republicans often fail to take politics seriously enough... I'm sure some people think he'd be a good whip. But, ultimately, who cares? The GOP has an image problem right now... Does the GOP really need a pork-loving Senator best known to average Americans — fairly or unfairly — as nostalgic for segregation?"
Dean Barnett on Hugh Hewitt's blog added, sarcastically: "Whoopee! If there’s one message that the electorate sent the Republican Party last week, it’s that we hadn’t given them enough of Trent Lott. I cannot adequately express my delight that Senate Republicans have moved with such expediency to right this egregious wrong."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Trent Lott's campaign to become Senate minority whip brings a lot to mind. Most of all, of course, it reminds us of the reasons why he's now having to climb back up the leadership ladder in the first place: the ill-judged comment at Strom Thurmond's birthday party in late 2002; the succession of apologies, including on BET; and finally, the relinquishing of his leader post. It also reminds us that politics can be an especially forgiving business.
And, it raises the point that despite the shake-up last Tuesday, we aren't seeing any prominent new faces on Capitol Hill. The congressional system remains so biased toward seniority and back-room experience that a controversial figure like Lott may still be better positioned to advance than a comparably fresh face like one-termer Lamar Alexander. Of course, Senate Republicans may prefer Lott to Alexander because of their bumpy ride under the less-experienced Bill Frist. But in their election of a leader on Friday, House Republicans will likely stick with John Boehner; Senate Democrats will be led by Harry Reid and Dick Durbin; and House Democrats will continue to follow Nancy Pelosi and, most likely, Steny Hoyer.
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President Bush stopped in Moscow earlier this morning en route to Singapore. Bush has launched his own "sweeping internal review" of Iraq policy, as the Washington Post notes. Administration officials insist that the point of the effort is not to compete with that of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, "although the White House wants to complete the process before mid-December, about the time the Iraq Study Group's final report is expected." The new review "could give the administration alternatives so that it feels less pressure to fully implement the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group report, foreign policy experts said."
Today also brings the Senate Armed Services hearing on the current situation in Iraq, which was scheduled before the election but now seems certain to produce some interesting moments, given the various agendas of incoming committee chair Carl Levin and the presidential contenders who serve on the panel.
The Washington Times focuses on Democratic disagreements on what course to pursue in Iraq.
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...when little things start falling through the cracks. Like when your staff accidentally posts the wrong flag on the White House website in advance of your trip to Vietnam. Until yesterday evening, as a First Read source pointed out, the White House had the flag of the former Republic of Vietnam (i.e., South Vietnam) on its site. When asked about it, White House staffers told NBC's Les Kretman that they had just become aware of the "wrong flag" and would fix it.
Or, like when you announce that you're renominating the controversial Kenneth Tomlinson to chair the Broadcasting Board of Governors, and that renomination comes after the inspector general at the State Department recently ruled that Tomlinson had used his office to improperly run a horse-racing operation and had put a friend on the payroll. Tomlinson denied he did anything improper. Last year, he was ousted from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting after evidence suggested that he had violated rules meant to keep partisan politics out of public radio and TV.
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Ousted Sen. Rick Santorum, who will continue in his number-three post as Senate GOP Conference chair, will oversee the conference's leadership elections today.
House Republicans "are growing increasingly frustrated with their choices" in their own elections, reports the Washington Times. "Most insiders say Rep. John A. Boehner... is favored to win the top spot, but Rep. Mike Pence, Indiana Republican, has been widely praised by conservatives off the Hill as a fresh face... Some Republicans have expressed reluctance to return Mr. Boehner to leadership after last week's disastrous elections, and some are opposed to Mr. Pence for forging a compromise on immigration that critics dismissed as 'amnesty.' Yesterday, Mr. Pence renounced those efforts."
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Americans may feel more optimistic now that the Democrats control Congress, but most are still skeptical if there will be bipartisan cooperation between the new majority party and the Bush Administration, a new AP-Ipsos poll finds. Fifty-one percent of Americans are not confident that the President and congressional Democrats can work together to address national problems.
By the final weeks of the 2006 campaign, Republicans, much more than Democrats, were in the spotlight for divisions within the party over Iraq, and that helped boost Democrats to majority status on election day. But the battle for the majority leader post between Hoyer and Murtha, exacerbated by Pelosi's endorsement of Murtha, has helped put the party's fissures over the war back in the spotlight all over again. As NBC's Mike Viqueira notes, Hoyer and Murtha are now fighting over who has called for "redeployment" of US troops from Iraq and who hasn't.
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Senator-elect Jim Webb (D) of Virginia broadens his portfolio with a Wall Street Journal op-ed on -- not the war, but on the wage gap and "our society's steady drift toward a class-based system, the likes of which we have not seen since the 19th century... It should be the first order of business for the new Congress to begin addressing these divisions, and to work to bring true fairness back to economic life. Workers already understand this, as they see stagnant wages and disappearing jobs."
The heads of the Big Three said they got an "understanding hearing" at the White House yesterday, but it's unclear what, if anything else, they got. "Bush, who left hours after the meeting for a conference in Vietnam with Asian trading partners, was not about to roil the waters by complaining of Asian currency manipulation."
“For Rudy, is ‘star power’ enough?” the New York Daily News asks. The paper reports that “dirty tricksters” in conservative states have been spreading word about Giuliani’s liberal stands on guns, abortion, and gay marriage. Another Daily News article notes that Giuliani's political advisers are mostly old City Hall pals with little or no national experience (of course, the last few successful presidential campaigns -- Reagan in 1980, Clinton in 1992, and Bush in 2000 -- came from outside the Beltway).
A gift registry set up by friends of Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and his wife for an upcoming housewarming party is causing a stir. Huckabee, "who has tangled with the state ethics panel in the past over gifts, on Tuesday criticized media reports about the Web-site registries at Target stores and Dillard’s department stores," writes the AP. "Huckabee said he would report gifts on financial disclosure forms if he’s required to by law, but indicated he did not see any ethical problems in accepting them."
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Top aides at the Democratic and GOP congressional campaign committees tell First Read that they expect all of the candidates currently leading in the remaining undecided races to hang on and win, although Democratic spokesperson Bill Burton says to still keep an eye on the recounts between Vern Buchanan and Christine Jennings in Florida and between Deborah Pryce and Mary Jo Kilroy in Ohio.
If that holds true, that will mean that Democrats will hold a 232-202 advantage in the House. The remaining race that could possibly switch hands is the upcoming runoff in Texas between incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D), and House GOP campaign committee spokesperson Carl Forti expects Bonilla to prevail (even though his district isn't as GOP-friendly as it used to be). "He showed his strength by getting 49%" -- just short of the majority he needed to avoid a runoff.
And Rep. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) is getting her 15 minutes of fame as she embarks on her roughly two-month tenure as former Rep. Tom DeLay's replacement -- but only until January, when Democrat Nick Lampson will take over. She's profiled today in USA Today, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post.
From NBC's Wendy Jones
The incoming general chair of the Republican National Committee, Sen. Mel Martinez (R) of Florida, spoke with White House reporters after meeting with the President this afternoon. Martinez stressed that he would continue to serve the people of Florida as their Senator, and noted that Mike Duncan would run the RNC as day-to-day chair. He further noted, "It's a time in history when the party ought to return to big ideas." He said he "made clear" that he "was not going to be an attack dog and... wasn't asked to be one."
Martinez on the new Congress, in which he will serve in the minority: "We need to show that we can be a respectful minority... My job is to make sure our message is heard." Asked about immigration, he defended the White House/Senate proposals: "The Senate bill is not a bill that [supports] amnesty... A bill that had requirements for people to return home or pay penalties and fines and go to the back of the line is far from amnesty."
Martinez will officially be elected general chair at the RNC's winter meeting in January.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The battle between current House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer and Rep. John Murtha for the Majority Leader slot is getting mildly interesting. Murtha sent out a press release this morning calling the front-page story in today's Washington Post "swift-boat style attacks." The story covers a range of potential ethical issues for Murtha, and his implication is that Hoyer supporters planted it.
"Of the critical issues we are faced with today, the war in Iraq is the most crucial," the Murtha press release goes. "The Pelosi-Murtha position on the war is the reason the Democrats are in the majority today. Congressman Hoyer's position has been to stay the course with President Bush from the very beginning and, like Senator John McCain, he advocates sending in more troops." Hoyer says this charge is not accurate.
Beyond that, Hoyer told reporters, "I am not looking back" -- his way of refusing to get into it with Murtha. He reiterated his pitch for the job; the election is scheduled for Thursday.
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mike Viqueira
Senate Democrats are elevating Sen. Chuck Schumer to the number-three position of vice chairman of the Senate Democratic Conference. Schumer has been lauded over the past week for his leadership as head of the party's Senate campaign committee, which helped the party net the six seats they needed to retake the majority. This promotion can be seen as a reward of sorts.
Sen. Patty Murray (D) of Washington state, who had been expected to take the number-three slot, will become number four in the leadership instead
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Everywhere you look, there's jockeying to fill the leadership void in the Republican party created by a lame-duck President, the lack of an anointed frontrunner for the party's next presidential nod, an outgoing national party chair, and divisions in the party's ranks on Capitol Hill.
On the heels of rival John McCain's announcement that he'll create a presidential exploratory committee, Rudy Giuliani let loose the news that he already has, leaving the political world to debate whether there's enough room in the field for both maverick Republicans, each of whom has his own seemingly unimpeachable battle credentials. As McCain said on Meet the Press, Giuliani's team says he hasn't made up his mind yet, but is taking the necessary steps in case he does decide to run.
The Republican National Committee is getting a new general chair for the presidential cycle in Sen. Mel Martinez, who will be formally elected -- along with a day-to-day chair -- at the RNC's meeting in January. The exit polls from last Tuesday showed Hispanics voting for Democrats over Republicans by 69%-30%, a loss of ground for Republicans from 2004, when President Bush got more than 40% of the Hispanic vote. Martinez supports Bush's proposed guest-worker plan and path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, which split the party in 2006. He also may cause the party a problem over of his sharply anti-gay attacks on his primary opponent in 2004.
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The Washington Times says of yesterday's Iraq Study Group meetings and Levin's remarks, "Faced with the election results and emboldened Democrats, Mr. Bush is trying to keep control of the debate while still being open to suggestions from the soon-to-be new majority party on Capitol Hill... Expectations for the group are growing, and those on both sides of the political divide say it could be a chance for the White House to achieve a face-saving way forward in Iraq."
"Bush cautioned Monday against holding talks with Syria and Iran and beginning a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, two key proposals gaining support at home and abroad. But the president said he was open to 'new ideas' on his administration's approach to Iraq..."
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Bloomberg points out that Democrats' takeover of the Senate means Bush's ability to appoint judges has basically ended. It also "limits Bush's options filling any Supreme Court vacancy that might develop before he leaves office. A nominee such as [Sam] Alito -- who drew the support of just four Democratic senators -- would probably fail to win confirmation... Republican activists, meanwhile, say Bush should push for strongly ideological candidates even if they won't win confirmation."
House Republicans are discussing the "idea of passing a long-term continuing resolution that keeps the government running until early next year under current spending limits is being discussed, from both a fatigue standpoint and as a strategic move to start pushing the notion of tax-and-spend Democrats early in the 2008 election cycle."
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President Bush meets with the heads of the Big Three automakers today, then travels to Russia, Singapore, Vietnam and Indonesia. Bloomberg previews Bush's meeting with the automakers. "The auto chieftains and Bush have ruled out a direct bailout or government loan guarantees. So the executives want steps to help the industry compete against foreign imports... Bush is expected to exhort automakers to push fuel-efficient new models, said White House spokesman Tony Snow. He said the president won't offer much more than verbal encouragement for Detroit's restructuring efforts." The Wall Street Journal says Democrats have their own ideas for how to help the automakers and other manufacturers.
Congress yesterday "rejected a deal to normalise trade relations with Vietnam in a setback for [Bush] ahead of a visit to Hanoi," per the Financial Times. "Supporters of the pact on Monday night said they expected the bill to be revived and passed by a simple majority vote as early as Wednesday after failing to secure the two-thirds needed to pass the bill without a debate. The defeat of the first major piece of legislation brought forward since the election by the Bush administration was seen as a setback for the White House, which made clear the president’s desire to arrive at the summit with the deal in hand."
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"In the poll taken Thursday through Sunday, just after Democrats swept to majorities in the House and Senate, those surveyed said by nearly 2-to-1 that they want Democrats to have more influence than President Bush on the direction of the nation. Nearly half said the country will be better off under Democrats; 16% said it will be worse off; and one-third predicted no difference," says USA Today of its new Gallup poll. "Bush's job-approval rating was 33%, tying his second-lowest ever. The Republican Party was viewed favorably by 35% - an eight-year low." Still, there's "skepticism" about Democrats potentially raising taxes and about their commitment to improving congressional ethics.
NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily column that one of the smartest Republicans he knows "posited that by siding with the 44 Blue Dog Democrats, the about-200 House GOP members might actually end up with more conservative measures passing the House than if they did the bidding of the White House, which would likely end up compromising with Democratic congressional leaders." Cook also writes of Pelosi's noncontroversial priorities for the first 100 legislative hours, "If this is the direction Democrats choose to go, and they have the discipline to resist temptation to take the hard left, they have a chance to do very well. But if they give in to their hearts as opposed to their heads, this majority will last exactly 24 months."
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By forming an exploratory committee in New York, Giuliani “stopped short of filing documents with the Federal Election Commission to create a presidential campaign committee… Federal election law allows individuals exploring a candidacy to ‘test the waters’ before deciding to run for federal office. The prospective candidate does not need to register with the commission, but must abide by the same contribution and spending limits as declared candidates.”
The New York Post says Giuliani's filing "ratchets up the early heat in the 2008 contest at a time when Giuliani was facing pressure to make a move..." More: "Despite leading in national opinion polls, Giuliani has raised eyebrows for keeping a relatively low profile in terms of building a campaign operation, while other candidates - most of them current officeholders - have started hiring staff."
CONTINUED >>
A couple of still unsettled House races will affect what can and cannot be said about just how striking last week's election was. A recount in Connecticut will determine whether or not Rep. Chris Shays is the last Republican House member left standing in all of New England. If his fellow Connecticut Republican Rob Simmons pulls out a win, Shays will have company. If Simmons doesn't, then Shays will enjoy this dubious distinction. And a recount in Democratic Rep. John Barrow's district in Georgia will make the difference between Barrow's party emerging from the election without losing a single House, Senate, or statehouse seat anywhere, and Barrow becoming the only guy to lose a seat.
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From the AP and NBC's Huma Zaidi
"America's Mayor" wants to be America's president. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giulini has filed paperwork to set up a committee to explore a presidential bid. The four-page filing establishes the "Rudy Guiliani Presidential Exploratory Committee, Inc.," which will allow him to fundraise and travel so he can test the waters. Last year, Giuliani told reporters that he would make a decision about running sometime this year. He said at the time, "Sometime you warm up and get ready and you don't get in and pitch."
A moderate who supports abortion rights, Guiliani has come close to seeking another public office before. He was poised to challenge Hillary Clinton for retiring Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan's seat in 2000 but was diagnosed with prostate cancer and dropped out of the race. Perhaps this time around, Giuliani might finally get to go tete-a-tete with Clinton, who is also considered a formidable presidential contender. But first, he'll have to survive a celebrity candidate death match against fellow "maverick" Republican John McCain.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Two lessons that House authorities have included to the newest members: how to cover your rear end (ethically), and how to duck and cover.
Newly elected members of the House, some wide-eyed in awe of the their surroundings, are here on Capitol Hill today for freshman orientation. The morning portion of the program was devoted to advice on how to run an office and an organization within the ethical boundaries of the House. On the way into the closed-door confab, congresspersons-elect were handed a pamphlet from the Hill's Office of Emergency planning that featured instructions on how to cover your head with a bio-hazard mask in the event of attack, replete with photographs of smiling models with the plastic sheaths over their faces. "It's fine, especially if I were having a bad hair day," said member-elect Nancy Boyda (D-Kansas).
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Elizabeth Wilner
Presumptive Speaker Nancy Pelosi now has a sixth grandchild. Pelosi's daughter Alexandra, of "Journeys with George" fame, has finally given birth after her due date, which was a few days before election day, required her mother's election-day and post-election schedule to quietly be marked "tentative." Baby, mom and dad are all said to be doing well. The happy grandmother is expected to be elected Speaker by her caucus on Thursday, with a formal vote by the entire House to follow on January 3.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Democrat Harold Ford Jr., who narrowly lost his Tennessee Senate bid last week, has just released a statement saying he has no interest in heading the Democratic National Committee. The unlikely prospect that Ford would replace current chair Howard Dean -- who isn't liked by many inside-the-Beltway Democrats, but who enjoys a tremendous amount of support from state party chairs and other DNC members -- was fueled when James Carville was quoted on The New Republic web site late last week saying he'd love to see Ford take over for Dean.
"I have just finished a tough Senate election, and while I care about the future direction of my party, I am not interested in taking over the DNC," Ford says in the statement. "We are now the majority party in the House and Senate, and it is time to move beyond the politics of the campaign and work towards bringing the country together around a common agenda that will strengthen us at home and abroad."
Meanwhile, regarding the speculation over who might succeed Ken Mehlman as Republican National Committee chair, Michael Steele -- who lost his own Senate bid last week -- said on C-Span yesterday that he is interested in the RNC gig. But as we reported last week, per White House and GOP officials, Steele is unlikely to get the job.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
President Bush and Vice President Cheney along with other Administration officials met with the Iraq Study Group in the White House as planned today. White House press secretary Tony Snow told reporters at this morning's gaggle that while there was no set agenda for the meeting, a "presentation of alternatives" would not be discussed. When pressed about what they would be talking about if not options for Iraq, Snow said they could "discuss how one analyzes the scene on the ground right now without getting into specific conversations of ways to proceed." Snow suggested they could discuss issues on a "fact basis" without getting into specific proposals. He also said that it would be "inappropriate" for the Commission to present any of its ideas and get reaction from the president. Snow added that the group has been "very clear about its independence and we've been respecting that."
The ISG will meet with Democrats tomorrow.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Both halves of the McCain-Feingold team over the weekend clarified their plans for 2008. The former is pretty clearly running for president; the latter has decided against it. Republican Sen. John McCain's bid could be complicated by his continuing support for the war in Iraq, especially after voters rejected it at the polls last Tuesday. But with Sen. Russ Feingold (D) out of the race, the field has lost its anti-war outlier, the only prospective major candidate who could claim to have voted against it.
Feingold's decision not to run means one less headache for incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, but the Senate in the 110th Congress still will be teeming with presidential candidates from both parties. For that reason, and because Senate rules make it easier for the minority party to weigh in, the House will be where Democrats stand their best chance to promote an agenda and draw contrasts with Republicans that could build support for their party in the run-up to 2008. (Which makes you wonder why not all of the likely Democratic candidates have put in calls to incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi.) The latest Newsweek poll finds strong support for Democrats' top legislative priorities and a new low in President Bush's job approval rating, 31%.
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On ABC yesterday, "White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten indicated that the president would block legislation calling for a scheduled withdrawal" of US troops from Iraq.
The Boston Globe says Democrats' call for a phased withdrawal of troops by mid-2007 "suggests an aggressive approach... on foreign policy," and "also sets up an early clash with the Bush administration, despite vows from both sides to pursue bipartisan solutions."
The Chicago Tribune says, “The Bush administration stands ‘ready to make course adjustments’ with the war in Iraq, the White House said Sunday, while insisting that the president remains committed to his vision of success there. The administration's assurances came as violence rose to a height unusual even by Iraq's standards. At least 159 people were reported killed, including 35 in suicide bombings at a police recruiting station in Baghdad and 75 whose bodies were dumped in the capital and Baqouba.”
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Newsweek asks how Karl Rove got his calculations so wrong. "Rove placed so much faith in his figures that, after the elections, he planned to convene a panel of Republican political scientists-to study just how wrong the polls were." Rove insisted to Time magazine that Iraq wasn't a top concern for voters, per the exit polls but outgoing Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman told Newsweek before the election, "There was no bigger issue than the war."
Per the Sunday Washington Times, some GOP state "chairmen said that without the Iraq war, a number of Republicans would have won... There was also a belief among many party officials that the war -- when combined with a number of other issues, such as excessive spending and the lobbying and congressional-page scandals -- produced a 'critical mass' that angered and frustrated Republicans and hurt turnout among party members... But it was the Republican Party's abandonment of its core principles on spending and limited government that these and other Republicans outside the Beltway said was the biggest complaint among the party's grass roots."
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"What the election was not," says the Washington Post in its analysis of what the election was, "...was a powerful affirmation of the Democratic Party... Republicans decisively lost independents and moderates, but it is not yet a given that those voters will stay with the Democrats... The competition for the center of the electorate ultimately will be fought and won in the general election in 2008. But before either party gets to that, they will have to resolve internal differences on Iraq, terrorism, health care, entitlement reform, taxes, trade and a cluster of social issues."
The Sunday San Francisco Chronicle posed this question: Will Pelosi be able to get her ambitious wish list through Congress? “Pelosi's 100-hour agenda is aimed at quickly passing the most popular parts of the Democratic agenda to build momentum to tackle tougher issues. She's betting that few Republicans will take the political risk of voting against increasing the minimum wage or making college loans more affordable. And she will dare the president to veto a bill to increase stem cell research.”
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The Detroit Free Press previews tomorrow's meeting between Bush and the heads of the Big Three, saying the three "will press for more recognition of their issues, from the rising cost of retiree health care to the advantages a weak yen gives the Japanese... All sides expect no firm commitments from the scheduled 45-minute session, which will include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Al Hubbard, director of the National Economic Council... Bush last met with the heads of Detroit's automakers in Michigan in 2003, as he canvassed the country to build support for his tax-cut package."
Divided government could be good for the deficit, provided that both sides are willing to negotiate and compromise, says USA Today. "Deficit-reduction packages that passed in 1987, 1990 and 1997 were negotiated between presidents and Congresses of opposite parties. Only in 1993 did Democrats do it alone under President Clinton - and the tax increases they enacted helped elect a Republican Congress in 1994."
In case you missed McCain on Meet the Press.
McCain supporter Keith Hirschmann says "he expects McCain will benefit from the fact that the Nevada caucuses have been added between Iowa and New Hampshire, adding that Arizona is right next to Nevada," reports the Manchester Union Leader.
The AP notes that if "McCain were to run, he would turn 72 on Aug. 29, 2008, at the height of the campaign. Only Ronald Reagan was older -- 73 at the start of his second term."
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With the congressional race in GEORGIA between Rep. John Barrow (D) and Max Burns (R) still undecided (Barrow leads by 963 votes), the New York Times notes how Barrow and fellow Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall, who narrowly won his race, seemed to have prevailed in a state that’s trending Republican.
In addition to the small handful of still-uncalled races, there are two runoffs that will occur next month. First, LOUISIANA Rep. William Jefferson (D) -- he of frozen $90,000 fame -- got only 30% of the vote in a crowded field, forcing him to face fellow Democrat Karen Carter on December 9. That's never a strong position for an incumbent. "I just can't believe that Jefferson can pull this off," says Amy Walter of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "An incumbent who gets 30% in a crowded primary is not the favorite in the general election." (Of course, we also thought Ray Nagin was doomed after being in a similar position, and he stunned the political world by winning his mayoral runoff earlier this year.)
On the flip side, TEXAS Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) received a near majority -- 49% -- in the free-for-all election last week for the redrawn congressional district (mandated by the US Supreme Court) he currently represents. But that was still below the 50% he needed to avoid a runoff, and he could be in a tough race. "I don't think this it's a runaway victory for Bonilla," Walter tells First Read, noting that his district isn't as GOP-friendly as it used to be. Bonilla will compete against former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) in the runoff that's likely to occur next month (a date still hasn't been set), and the already victorious Democratic congressional campaign committee sees the contest as another pickup opportunity.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is using the occasion of his 1000th listening session with Wisconsin voters to announce that he's not going to run for president in 2008 and will focus instead on his work in the Senate, where his party is soon to be in the majority.
"Although I have given it a lot of thought, I cannot muster the same enthusiasm for a race for President while I am trying simultaneously to advance our agenda in the Senate," Feingold wrote in an e-mail to supporters. "In other words, if I really wanted to run for President, regardless of the odds or other possible candidates, I would do so. However, to put my family and all of my friends and supporters through such a process without having a very strong desire to run, seems inappropriate to me."
The other half of the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform team, meanwhile, explains to NBC's Tim Russert the reasons why he IS running for president on Meet the Press this morning...
From NBC News
As reported tonight on NBC Nightly News, Sen. John McCain (R) plans to set up an exploratory committee for a presidential run in 2008. It might seem awfully early but in fact, when he ran for president in 2000, McCain actually made similar news in late December 1998. Of course, back then he was far less well-known.
Unfortunately for McCain, the Democratic takeover of the Senate just deprived him of a key platform: He'll become ranking member of the Armed Services Committee in the next Congress, whereas he must have hoped to become the committee chairman. (Maybe that's why he recently made a controversial joke that he'd commit suicide if Democrats won control?)
McCain surely will expound upon his plans with NBC's Tim Russert during his appearance on Meet the Press this Sunday. Assuming no one beats him to the punch, he will become the first major Republican candidate to file with the FEC. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) became the first major candidate of either party to file when he did so yesterday. The next few months are expected to be crowded with similar announcements: Sen. Evan Bayh (D) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D), to name two, have said they'll announce their plans shortly after the holidays.
From the White House pool report and NBC's Ken Strickland
President Bush and Vice President Cheney met today with Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and Democratic Whip Richard Durbin. Per the pool reporter's account: "We were led in at 12:20 pmET. 'The elections are over,' Bush said. 'The problems haven't gone away...' He assured the senators, he said, that 'we'll cooperate... To solve common problems. There is a great opportunity for us to show the country that Republicans and Democrats are equally patriotic,' Bush said. Noting that Reid hails from the West, Bush said: 'We tend to speak the same language.'
"Reid concurred: 'The election's over.' Seems they have this nailed down. Durbin: 'We talked about a lot of important issues... We talked about our agenda moving forward...This is a day about looking forward' and not backward at the campaign. Cheney was speechless.
"With that, after just a few minutes, the four men rose and they shook hands... Almost got a whiplash. Think it was three minutes, tops."
After Reid returned to the Senate, he told reporters that he doesn't want to "frighten" anyone with the notion that Democrats will launch a barrage of investigations on the Bush Administration. Instead, he said Democrats will conduct much needed "oversight," which Reid said was sorely lacking all this time that Republicans have controlled Congress. He added that subpoenas will be sought "rarely."
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
The White House and top Democratic lawmakers head into the post-election Sunday shows and this new era of divided government warily circling each other, trying to gauge each other's sincerity about bipartisanship. President Bush meets with the Senate Democratic leadership at the White House today.
Within the two chambers of Congress, bipartisanship, or at least collegiality, may be easier to achieve and maintain in the Senate than in the House, where First Read counts at least 126 Republican members (depending on the outcome of the still-undecided races) who will soon serve in the minority for the first time ever. Democratic aides in both chambers, looking forward to a turn in the majority, suggest that the toughest adjustment for Republicans may be not controlling the hearing process -- particularly as hearings about the Administration's Iraq policy kick into gear.
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NBC's Ken Strickland reports that per a senior aide for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates' confirmation hearing before the Armed Services Committee will likely start during the week of December 4, and he may be confirmed by the full Senate before the end of the year.
"Gates' forceful pronouncements over the years routinely have been tempered by more moderate positions that make it difficult to discern exactly what sort of course the ex-CIA chief might chart for the military," says the Los Angeles Times. "As a result, lawmakers and senior staffers on Capitol Hill said that although they expected relatively uneventful confirmation hearings..., senators would strive to decipher his often complex views and gauge his ability to lead a military that... was under extreme stress. Most predicted Gates would sail through."
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The New York Times wonders if Bush can actually return to his bipartisan ways when he was governor of Texas. Democrats are suspicious. Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D) “invoked Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, who famously repaired his relationship with Democrats. ‘But I don’t think he’s motivated in the same way... Arnold Schwarzenegger wanted to get re-elected. There’s no real motivation for Bush.’”
Meanwhile, Schwarzenegger yesterday praised the new Democratic majorities in Congress, the Sacramento Bee writes. “‘I think this is good that we have new blood coming to Washington, that we have new people and new ideas coming to Washington,’ Schwarzenegger said.”
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House Democrats have dodged a bullet now that Rep. Rahm Emanuel, chair of the party's highly successful House campaign committee, has decided to seek the fourth-ranking position of Democratic caucus chair instead of challenging Jim Clyburn for the whip post.
The San Francisco Chronicle examines how soon-to-be Speaker Nancy Pelosi helped propel Democrats to power by getting involved in more than 60 House races this cycle and making strategic decisions to unify the party "-- like recruiting conservative Democratic candidates, refusing to compromise on Social Security, threatening to punish House Democrats who don't vote with the party, and aggressively going after President Bush on Iraq.”
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In his first post-election National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes: "This wave election could have been much worse for the GOP. At least 13 Republican seats in the toss-up column stayed Republican. And five more might end up doing so... But if the Republicans had lost all of their toss-ups -- and nothing else -- they would have suffered a 38-seat setback."
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) claimed yesterday to have secured enough commitments from his colleagues to win the minority whip job. Alexander may be challenged for the post by Sen. Trent Lott.
The Washington Post chronicles the long rise and quick, if perhaps temporary fall of outgoing Sen. George Allen (R).
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Newt Gingrich calls Tuesday's outcome a defeat for Republicans, but not for conservatives. "There is hope to advance a conservative agenda, Mr. Gingrich said, if House Republicans can find allies among conservative Democrats."
The Boston Globe looks at how Allen's loss may be someone else's gain -- specifically, Gov. Mitt Romney's.
Presidential candidate and Sen. Evan Bayh (D) tells a USA Today editorial board that people don't know what the Democratic party stands for. "Bayh said Democrats must focus on middle-class concerns, including affordability of health care and college, as well as pension and job security. But they also have to prove Democrats can be trusted with national security and should implement all the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. He singled out reducing the nation's dependence on imported oil as an area where Democrats could immediately prove their willingness to work with Republicans."
Aides to New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) tell First Read that Richardson will announce his future plans in January.
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“According to The Associated Press, Democrats have won at least 230 House seats, giving them 12 more votes than the 218 needed to control the 435-member chamber. Two more uncalled races appeared to be leaning Democratic Thursday evening. Republicans had won 196 seats, with 7 uncalled races leaning in their direction.”
Elections officials in Florida's Sarasota County will conduct a recount in the race for the 13th district after it was reported that there were over 13,000 undervotes. "Regardless of the recount result, the case will likely end up in court and will have ramifications not just in Congress but throughout Florida. Activist groups from Sarasota to Miami-Dade County have voiced concerns over the soundness and accuracy of the ATM-style touch-screen voting machines in use, and for the process of reviewing votes."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The White House served pasta salad and a chocolate dessert -- called, no kidding, "Freedom Chocolate" -- at lunch today with House Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer.
In other news, topics of discussion included Iraq, Darfur, immigration reform, energy policy, R&D tax credits that have expired and are waiting to be renewed, and "fiscal responsibility," according to a Democratic leadership sources. Hoyer reminded the President that Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan worked together on tax reform and Social Security. One Democratic source described these issues as "areas of bipartisanship and urgency." These are all issues that have been emphasized by Democrats in the just-completed campaign.
On Iraq, they spoke of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. Pelosi noted that while she's interested in what they have to say, she doesn't view the report as definitive or binding in any way. On immigration, Democrats are known to be keen for Bush to take the lead in order to give Democrats cover from the "amnesty" charge.
Graciously accepting defeat, Sen. George Allen (R) conceded to opponent (and now Senator-elect) Jim Webb (D) this afternoon. Allen, who trails Webb by roughly 9,000 votes, said he doesn't want to subject Virginians to a costly and lengthy recount, and does not expect that one would change the outcome of the election. Laden with football references, Allen's speech was also heavy on religion and faith. The NFL coach's son said he believes in a "purpose-driven life," and because he sees "no good purpose" in asking for a recount, he would sideline himself (that's our own football reference).
Allen was once a rising star in the GOP and was supposed to cruise to victory on Tuesday -- until a series of fumbles led to Webb's rise in the polls. The former Virginia governor and congressman was also an early conservative favorite in the race for president in 2008. Allen garnered the most votes in a presidential straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference last February. Just a few weeks later, he was asked if he would be willing to serve as vice president, to which he replied, "It's an important position, but that's not something that one normally aspires to." While comebacks are always possible in politics, Allen's hopes of obtaining the presidency have been crushed for now, as is any possibility that anyone would consider him for the number-two spot on a presidential ticket in 2008.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
At a luncheon with reporters this afternoon, Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman attributed his party's midterms losses to the Six Year Itch, to the defeats an incumbent party usually suffers during wartime, and to the scandals and ethics problems that led to the loss of at least a dozen GOP-held seats.
At the same time, however, he said those reasons don't tell the whole story. "I think the American people sent a message, and I think we have to listen" -- that the GOP needs to be a "party of conservative reform" and it must strive for the "highest ethical standards." He added that he anticipated the "culture of corruption" tag possibly hurting his party. "Congress should have passed ethics reform"; it also should have passed earmark reform. "We've got to be the party of reform."
If the Republican Party listens, he concluded, 2006 will be considered only a setback, and "the center-right majority will continue." He later noted, "The most dangerous thing in the world is to stay in success" -- because it prevents you from learning from your mistakes.
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Kevin Corke
Democratic leaders are expected to hold a news conference this afternoon acknowledging that they've won majority control of the Senate with 51 votes to Republicans' 49. Tomorrow, Democratic Leader Harry Reid and Whip Richard Durbin are expected to meet with President Bush at the White House. Official control would not take effect until January. When the Senate comes back for the lame duck session next week, Republicans will still hold the majority.
In the race that gave Democrats control of the Senate, we're likely to hear from both Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) and his Democratic opponent Jim Webb today. NBC News declared Webb the apparent winner last night at 8:38 pm.
From NBC affiliate WHO-TV's Dave Price and Elizabeth Wilner
Des Moines -- Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) told a select group of friends and supporters that he's running for president via a conference call at 7:00 am. "This is not an exploratory process," he said. "We're jumping in with both feet." Filing the paperwork with the FEC today will make him the first official major candidate to run for the nation's top job. It also allows him to legally begin raising money for a bid. Until now, he has been raising money for the Heartland PAC, his political action committee dedicated to getting Democrats elected to office. But federal law prohibits him from using any of that money for a presidential run.
Vilsack acknowledged to supporters this morning that some people may doubt whether he has a chance to win the election. But, he said, people doubted he could win Iowa's race for governor, too, back in 1998. "I'm a proven winner." This decision to run in 2008 comes after a big election night for Vilsack's party: Iowa Democrats took the governors' mansion and the state House and Senate, plus three congressional seats. Those wins could greatly enhance the Governor's credibility nationally and give him some much-needed attention.
Vilsack will officially make the announcement that he is running for president on November 30 in a series of places including his wife's hometown of Mt. Pleasant. He also plans stops in early presidential nominating states, and in Pittsburgh, PA, where he grew up.
In terms of how he fits into the Democratic pack, Vilsack is a centrist and chair of the Democratic Leadership Council, as well as one of the few who can claim gubernatorial credentials. For these reasons, his aides were encouraged by former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's announcement that he won't seek the party's presidential nod.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
President Bush's bombshell about Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's departure and his own openness to considering the forthcoming recommendations of the Iraq Study Group wound up getting sandwiched between his party's loss of one chamber of Congress on Tuesday night and their loss of the other chamber last night. NBC News declared Democrat Jim Webb the apparent winner of the Virginia Senate race shortly at 8:38 pm. Republican Sen. George Allen's campaign plans to offer a statement once state election officials complete their re-canvass. At last count, Webb had 49.6% to Allen's 49.3%.
While you wait on Allen's statement, we suggest comparing Bush's playbook from when he was governor of Texas to his words from his press conference yesterday. A lot of his rhetoric in talking about bipartisanship and topics like education and immigration harked back to his days in Austin, when the "uniter, not a divider" image he built up by working with a powerful Democratic lieutenant governor on some of those very issues helped get him elected President. His schedule for today may produce more of the same: breakfast with the GOP Hill leadership, lunch with incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and a meeting with the President-elect of Mexico. He also meets with his Cabinet, including his outgoing Defense Secretary.
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Bush not only dispatched with Rumsfeld yesterday, but he also dissed Vice President Cheney; NBC's Bob Windrem reports that Bush went against Cheney's wishes in letting Rumsfeld go, and then again in choosing Gates over Cheney's suggestion that they find someone more ideological.
The Washington Post: "Though Bush affectionately patted Rumsfeld on the shoulder as he ushered him out of the Oval Office, there was little sugarcoating the reality that the defense chief, 74, was being offered as a sacrificial lamb."
The Chicago Tribune: "Rumsfeld is usually not the sort of man seen choking back tears… But on Wednesday, Rumsfeld was out of moves, and nearly out of words.”
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The Los Angeles Times, channeling First Read, says that what lies ahead for the Bush's tenure "may be a two-sided presidency, one open to compromise on domestic legislation but committed to its basic strategy in Iraq and the war on terrorism - one-half Austin, Texas, one-half Sept. 11."
The Dallas Morning News wonders if Rove can rebuild the GOP before 2008, while some speculate that the Rove era is over.
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The Houston Chronicle: “It is not clear how long the spirit of cooperation will last. The Democrats and the White House are divided on issues such as the Iraq war, taxes and expanding federal funding for embryonic-stem-cell research. Although the president announced he was replacing Rumsfeld..., he essentially repeated his goals of keeping U.S. fighters in Iraq until a victory is achieved there.”
The San Francisco Chronicle says Pelosi spent yesterday "soaking in the reality of making history." After an early morning phone call with President Bush, Pelosi held a news conference, was interviewed by Brian Williams, Katie Couric, and Wolf Blitzer, and was congratulated by Condoleezza Rice. Pelosi's husband, Paul, said today was the first time he saw his wife begin to relax.
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On the Republican side, Hastert is as good as retired; he announced yesterday that he won't stand for minority leader. The current majority leader, John Boehner, has declared his intention to run for minority leader but faces a challenge from a leading conservative, Mike Pence. House members have moved their leadership elections back two days from next Wednesday to next Friday.
The Chicago Tribune writes about Hastert’s announcement that he will he step down as party leader. “It was a sex scandal that made Dennis Hastert the House speaker and a sex scandal that helped unmake him.”
Roll Call covers an incoming Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell talking about bipartisanship and other Republicans on the Hill privately blaming their losses on Bush.
USA Today rounds up finger-pointing by prominent Republicans like Bush, Rush Limbaugh, and Dick Armey yesterday.
The Washington Post's Milbank says Bush, "who started his appearance with an admission that 'I share a large part of the responsibility,' went on to blame everybody else... The president's performance fit neatly into yesterday's version of the post-election ritual in Washington: The winning side gloated, and the losing side pointed fingers every which way."
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"An adviser to Allen, speaking on condition of anonymity because his boss had not formally decided to end the campaign, said the senator wanted to wait until most of canvassing was completed before announcing his decision, possibly as early as this evening," reports the Boston Globe. "The adviser said that Allen was disinclined to request a recount if the final vote spread was similar to the figures that were reported on election night."
The New York Times: “Mr. Webb, taking a page from the Republican playbook in the contested presidential vote count in Florida in 2000, tried to cast his victory as inevitable.”
"Nationally, more than 40% of eligible voters cast ballots in Tuesday's elections," says
USA Today. "That's up modestly from a turnout rate of 39.7% in" 2002. Among the preliminary findings: "The USA's tightest Senate races brought out thousands more voters. The turnout rate in Virginia's Senate race was 52%, compared to 39% in the last midterm election in 2002... Montana's turnout rate increased to 62% from 55%." Conversely, "[t]urnout sagged in less-competitive states." And, "Contentious ballot measures didn't always draw voters. In Colorado - where voters banned gay marriage, raised the minimum wage and turned down legalizing small amounts of marijuana - the turnout rate was about 58%, up from 49%. But turnout in South Dakota, which rejected a strict abortion ban, dropped to 67% from 72% in 2002."
From NBC's Carroll Ann Mears
Some further analysis on last night's congressional races:
1. Democrats finally took out a number of GOP incumbents they had been trying to defeat for years -- but were unable to until now. Those casualties include Reps. Clay Shaw of Florida, Anne Northup of Kentucky, Jim Leach of Iowa, and Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, and Rob Simmons of Connecticut (who is trailing, per the AP results).
2. The Republicans actually held their own in the top-tier races targeted by the Democratic and GOP House campaign committees. Their survivors include Reps. Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Deborah Pryce and Steve Chabot of Ohio, Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania (who is leading per the AP results), and Tom Reynolds of New York -- who actually chairs the GOP House campaign committee.
3. Democrats won many of the once-longshot races they didn't target until the very end. Those include their victories over GOP Reps. Melissa Hart of Pennsylvania, Jim Ryun of Kansas, Richard Pombo of California, and Gil Gutknecht of Minnesota.
From the NBC News Decision Desk
NBC News has declared Democrat Jon Tester the apparent winner of the Montana Senate race. Democrats now have 50 votes in the Senate, including the votes of Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont and of Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Republicans have 49 votes, and one race, Virginia, remains undecided.
Special to First Read from The Hotline
Here are a few Democrats who deserve mucho credit for building an impressive ground machine...
At the DCCC, they are Sean Sweeney and Adrian Saenz, political and field directors, respectively.
At the DSCC, pol. dir. Guy Cecil spent months developing GOTV programs in Montana and Missouri that effectively harnessed those states' blue waves. (Not for nothing are DSCC exec = dir J.B. Poersch and DCCC exec dir. Karin Johanson old hands at "field.") BTW: the DCCC brought in guru Michael Whouley to supervise the field programs during the last two months.
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From NBC's Mark Potter
Hutchinson Island, FL -- For most of the night, the mood at Joe Negron's campaign HQ was loud and upbeat. His many supporters there were convinced that he had defied the odds after replacing the disgraced Mark Foley in a late bid to secure this House seat, a traditional Republican stronghold. It was a race drawing international attention.
More than a few political analysts were anticipating a Negron victory over businessman Tim Mahoney, a Democrat running in his first campaign. They argued that Negron had surged in the polls and would ride the momentum to victory. Even with Foley's name still on the ballot, many believed a majority of voters would rally behind the man the national GOP had spent nearly $2 million trying to elect. The campaign slogan of "Punch Foley to Elect Joe Negron" had reverberated throughout the district.
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
A recount in Montana and a canvass in Virginia are all that separate Republicans from keeping control of the Senate and their ability to confirm presidential nominees, as most had expected they'd do, and a devastating loss of both chambers of Congress. At this writing, the breakdown of the Senate is 49-49, with Independent Bernie Sanders and renegade Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Democrats. The present breakdown of the House is 234 Democrats to 201 Republicans; at least 19 Republican members have lost their seats.
At this writing, the Montana Senate race has come down to 1,735 votes, with Democrat Jon Tester leading GOP Sen. Conrad Burns with about 1,000 votes left to be counted. Final results are expected this morning, after which there may be a recount. In Virginia, Democrat Jim Webb leads GOP Sen. George Allen by 7,847 votes. Canvassing begins there this morning. Virginia election officials and the candidates have 10 days to count the votes, including the provisional and absentee ballots, and then call for a recount if one is desired by either side.
CONTINUED >>
NBC's Chris Donovan points out that on the day after the 1994 midterm elections, President Clinton held an afternoon news conference in the East Room. He said he was reaching out to Republicans and asking “them to join me in the center of the public debate where the best ideas for the next generation of American progress must come.” When asked by a reporter if the election was a repudiation of him, Clinton responded: “Well, I think that I have some responsibility for it. I’m the President. I am the leader of the efforts that we have made in the last two years. And to whatever extent that we didn’t do what the people wanted us to do or they were not aware of what we had done, I must certainly bear my share of responsibility, and I accept that.”
CONTINUED >>
President Bush, disappointed with the election results, will hold a news conference on Wednesday to urge his opponents to work with him.
“The president’s not the kind of guy who is going to be somber about things,” said press secretary Tony Snow. But he added: “They have not gone the way he would have liked.”
Bush, unaccustomed to political defeat, planned a morning phone call to Democratic minority leader Nancy Pelosi and made plans to give his take on the midterm election results at a 1 p.m. ET news conference.
NBC News declares Democrat challenger Claire McCaskill as the projected winner in Missouri U.S. Senate race. Incumbent Senator Jim Talent has conceded.
From MSNBC's Chris Jansing
It's nearly one in the morning, and there's a big party going on in the hallway outside of my hotel room. It's been four hours since Joe Lieberman was declared the winner in the Connecticut Senate race, more than three since he gave his acceptance speech.
But after a truly brutal and exhausting campaign, it's time for his supporters to have a victory celebration, and I'm guessing it isn't going to end anytime soon. Beer appears to be the beverage of choice - fueling sporadic chants of "Joe Joe Joe".
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Now that Democrats have captured the House, one of the best upcoming races is now all but underway: the battle for House majority leader. Rep. Steny Hoyer, the current No. 2 House Democrat, just released a statement declaring his candidacy for this post. "I believe that it is imperative that our next majority leader have the skills, ability and energy to reach out to every element of our diverse caucus so that we may achieve consensus," he said. "Our new majority leader also must have an unwavering commitment to our core principles, and be an effective communicator and legislative strategist. I believe that I have established a strong track record in all of these areas over the last four years."
Hoyer's rival for this post will be Rep. John Murtha (D), who announced earlier this year that he would run for majority leader (but then suspended his campaign for fear that it would become a distraction). Murtha is a close friend of Nancy Pelosi, the apparent Speaker, and he gained a cult following among Democrats for his opposition to the Iraq war. Just asked by MSNBC's Chris Matthews if he was running -- and would win -- the race for majority leader, Murtha replied, "You got it."
From MSNBC's Hilary Rosen
Well it now appears that we will have a large Democratic majority in the House. And the Dems deserve it. It was a national campaign with a promise for change. Nancy Pelosi’s first words tonight were conciliatory and promise to work with the President to give the American people the change they are seeking. There is no doubt that Pelosi’s overwhelming majority will give her the strength to be tough with the White House.
Pelosi’s will take some risks. And my guess is that many in my party will push her to be more combative, but that won’t be her first move. She’ll offer the President the chance to restore some oversight to the spending on the war; to the strategy of deployment and she will make sure that the House is open to the recommendations of the coming Baker Commission report. But in many respects, the ball is in the President’s court. Will he listen to the people and play nice with the House or will he push for a fight on the big issues?
From A.B. Stoddard, Associate Editor of The Hill newspaper
On Wednesday Republicans, wet and weary from the wave that knocked them from power in the House, can look back just 12 years to remember that victory on election night is the easy part. This power shift, of immense consequence, was nonetheless created by Republicans.
Democrats don't have a revolution, a Contract with America, just the gift of GOP scandals and the GOP's governing failures. Can they answer the Iraq problem and assuage the anger of so many Americans who voted Republicans out of power because of the war? Not so fast.
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From MSNBC analyst Pat Buchanan
“Well, the American people have spoken, and in his own good time, Franklin will tell us what they have said.”
So one wag quipped after the Democratic landslide over the Hoover Republicans in 1932. And FDR supplied the answer: A New Deal.
What are the American people saying tonight, and what are they not saying?
CONTINUED >>
Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
And then there are the governors races. Things have gone as expected here as well. Remarkably, not one vulnerable Democratic-held seats was lost. Govs. Jennifer Granholm in Michigan, Ted Kulongoski in Oregon, and Jim Doyle in Wisconsin, all rated as Toss Ups by the Cook Political Report, won re-election. Democrats also held their open seat In Iowa. Two marginally vulnerable Democratic governors, Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and John Baldacci in Maine have also won.
As expected, Republicans lost their open seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich was defeated and while Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri has been declared the winner, the margin is so close that we might not have heard the last word on this race. That leaves four Republican-held seats that haven't been called yet. The race in Minnesota (Gov. Tim Pawlenty) is too close to call and it's too early to call races in the open seats in Alaska, Idaho, and Nevada.
The bottom line is that Democrats have scored a net gain of five seats and the potential exists for them to pick up as many as nine seats. My guess is that they will end up with seven or eight, assuming Rhode Island is not contested.
Lynn Swann, the Hall of Fame receiver whose football career was one long string of successes, was beaten in his bid to become Pennsylvania’s governor.
Former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler did better, beating an incumbent for a congressional seat in North Carolina.
Democrats
reclaimed governors’ offices from the Northeast to the Rockies to the South on Tuesday, putting them on track to take a majority of the governorships for the first time in 12 years.
Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
As the clock strikes midnight, where does the Senate stand now? Well, it's tied. Each party has 48 seats. There are four seats yet to be decided: Missouri, Montana, Tennessee and Virginia.
Let's put aside Montana for a minute -- there isn't enough of the vote in to call this race. It's the remaining three that are most interesting. Several weeks ago, Republican strategists began talking about Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia as their firewall; three seats that could protect their majority as long as they can hold two of the three. Right now, all three are too close to call and it appears that we may not know the outcome any time soon.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be back. The bodybuilder-turned-action-star-turned-politician won a second and final term, easily turning aside a challenge from Democrat Phil Angelides.
NBC News has issued a series of projections for gubernatorial and senatorial races as well as state initiatives: Democrat Chet Culver is the projected winner of Iowa's governorship, Democrat Bill Ritter is the projected winner of Colorado's governorship, and Republican Linda Lingle is projected to be re-elected as Hawaii's governor.
Nevada Republican John Ensign and Hawaii Democrat Daniel Akaka are projected to win re-election to the U.S. Senate.
Here's a rundown of the initiative projections:
- Montana: Yes on Initiative 151 (raising minimum wage)
- Wisconsin: Yes on Referendum 1 (defining marriage)
- Michigan: Yes on Proposition 2 (affirmative action)
- Colorado: No on Amendment 44 (marijuana)
- Arizona: Yes on Proposition 202 (raising minimum wage)
- Arizona: No on Proposition 200 (voter reward)
- Tennessee: Yes on Amendment 1 (defining marriage)
- Ohio: No on Amendment 3 ("Learn & Earn")
- Ohio: Yes on Amendment 2 (raising minimum wage)
- Virginia: Yes on Amendment 1 (defining marriage)
- South Carolina: Yes on Amendment 1 (defining marriage)
From NBC's Mark Murray
One of the big stories after the midterms results are in, of course, will be all of the jockeying for the 2008 presidential race. And touting the Democrats' three congressional pickups in his state, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D) -- who is seriously considering a presidential bid -- just issued a statement on the Democrats' takeover of the House that points to the message he might be making in the next couple of years.
"The lesson of this election is clear – we won by turning the Red states of the Heartland Blue," Bayh said. "Indiana, which has voted for the Republicans in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections, sent three new Democrats to Congress. This is not an accident. Out here in Indiana, we have developed a formula for winning under the most difficult of circumstances. We are fiscally responsible, tough on national security, share the values of middle class families, and value progress over partisanship. If the Democratic Party follows the lead of Indiana and the Heartland and is willing to reach out."
This is shaping up as the Year of the Woman.
Nancy Pelosi is poised to become the first female Speaker of the House and a record number of women will be in the U.S. Senate.
Every female senator up for re-election has been projected as a winner.
With incumbent senators Hillary Clinton, Debbie Stabenow, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Maria Cantwell, Dianne Feinstein, and Olympia Snowe projected winners and new senator-elect Amy Klobuchar projected as the winner in Minnesota, there will be a history-making number of female senators on Capitol Hill. At least 15 in the new Congress. It is possible that number goes higher if Claire McCaskill wins in Missouri.
From the Washington Post's Gene Robinson
The results so far suggest that race is a more complicated issue in this country than it used to be, and more complicated than many people believe. Almost overlooked in the focus on Congress was the election of Deval Patrick as governor of Massachusetts -- only the second African-American to be elected as a governor in the nation's history. To me, that's a stunning result. Yes, Massachusetts is a reliably liberal state. But it also has a history of clannish white ethnicity -- as any black person who wandered into the wrong neighborhood of South Boston, say, ten or fifteen years ago could have told you. Patrick's election is genuine progress.
In other races, black Republican candidates were rejected by black voters -- Michael Steele in Maryland, Ken Blackwell in Ohio. You could spin this any of a number of ways. My spin is that black voters, not surprisingly, are as sophisticated as other voters in deciding where their best interests lie. The Republican Party could someday win a substantial chunk of the African American vote, but it will take positions and policies that genuinely benefit black Americans. Token black candidates at the top of the ticket don't cut it.
And then there's the case of Harold Ford Jr. We don't quite know the result of the Tennessee race, but it looks as if Ford will lose. On the one hand, no one expected him to even make it a close race. There is genuine agreement among the political cognoscenti of all stripes that he ran one of the smartest campaigns of the season. On the other hand, he got slimed with an attack ad that had clear racist overtones, and that might have made the difference. So if Ford loses, maybe the lesson we should draw is best expressed in French: Plus ca change ...
From the National Journal's Chuck Todd
A few early observations:
Campaigns matter. The incumbents who have gone down are ones who two months ago didn't know they had a race on their hands (including Reps. Anne Northup of Kentucky and Charlie Bass of New Hampshire). Meanwhile, so far, it appears that the House GOP incumbents who were prepared are surviving this Democratic wave at a greater clip than some analysts anticipated.
Also, while it's still early and we're counting mostly votes east of the Mississippi, there seems to be a trend that GOP turnout is steady - not down, as some anticipated. The increased turnout of Democrats and independents will make the difference for many successful House and Senate candidates, but the non-disastrous GOP turnout should save the party some House seats. Case in point: Kentucky 04, where GOP incumbent Geoff Davis survived in a very conservative district.
NBC News projects that Arizona Republican Jon Kyl will be re-elected to his U.S. Senate seat.
NBC News projects that California's Dianne Feinstein and Washington state's Maria Cantwell, both Democrats, will be re-elected to their U.S. Senate seats.
From Newsweek's Jonathan Alter
As of right now, the two big questions are finally coming into focus:
First, The Democrats have taken control of the House. Enough results are in to indicate that the Democrats will pick up 20 to 30 seats. The two "canaries in the mineshaft" I mentioned on MSNBC at 7:30, Charlie Bass of New Hampshire and Chris Chocola of Indiana, are both going down to defeat by substantial margins. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, another seen as an indicator of trends, has lost. Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania is another example.
Second, control of the Senate seems likely to remain in GOP hands, though just barely. With Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Harold Ford in Tennessee trailing, only skewed returns in one or both of those states can keep the Democrats in the game. Should that happen, control of the Senate would come down to Virginia. To put the fate of the Senate into "overtime," the gap between George Allen and Jim Webb would have to close to half a percentage point. Right now, the gap is more like 1.5 percent, with Allen leading. So the odds favor continued GOP control.
Finally, Hillary Clinton is running close to even with gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer. Spitzer now has 71 percent; Clinton 70 percent. This is a surprise, and will bolster her chances in 2008.
NBC News projects that, when all the votes are counted, the Democratic Party will be in control of the House of Representatives. That would make California's Nancy Pelosi the first female speaker of the House.
NBC News projects that Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle and Maine Gov. John Baldacci, both Democrats, will be re-elected. Vermont's Republican governor, Jim Douglas, is also projected to win re-election. Democrat Mike Beebe is the projected winner in Arkansas' gubernatorial race. In the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, embryonic stem cell research figured as a campaign issue. Doyle has been a strong supporter of such research.
We're in the thick of the poll closings and the post-election speeches right now, so it's a good time to review one of the basic questions of the Election Night business, as posed by Hank from Annapolis, Md.:
"How are the projections done? It looks like a lot of them don't match the current leader from the polls. How can you accurately project from 7 percent reported results?"
Actually, projecting the outcome of an election can sound a lot like doing a poll, or predicting the weather. The results may not always be sure-fire (remember the 2000 election?), but we hope that every election cycle brings improvements in the process. Here are a few basics about Election Night terms, gleaned from NBC News' policies:
CONTINUED >>
NBC News projects that Alabama Gov. Bob Riley, a Republican, will be re-elected.
From NBC's Chris Donovan
If the Democrats take control of the House and Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker, we all know that she would be the first female Speaker of the House, but what might also be interesting to point out is that she would become the highest-ranking woman ever to serve in the federal government -- that is if you use the presidential line of succession as the measure.
Madeleine Albright made history in 1997 when she became secretary of state and thus the highest-ranking woman (as the New York Times and Washington Post both pointed out the day after Clinton named her) -- as that position is fourth in line of presidential succession (even though she could not be president because she wasn’t born here). And Condoleezza Rice can now claim that same distinction. But if Pelosi becomes Speaker she will be second in line of succession -- below only the vice president. She already is the highest-ranking official in congressional history after being elected Democratic leader of the House.
Obviously this analysis excludes the judicial branch, and it’s important to remember the two women who have reached the U.S. Supreme Court: Sandra Day O’Connor in 1981 and Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 1993.
NBC News projects that Utah Republican Orrin Hatch will be re-elected to the U.S. Senate. The Senate races in Montana and Nevada are judged too early to call, while the races in Virginia and Tennessee are too close to call.
From NBC's Ron Allen
A huge cheer went up when NBC projected Bob Menendez the winner in New Jersey. Then came a big sigh of relief. This race was a lot closer than the Democrats ever thought it would be. Another headline not making a lot of news is that he is the first Hispanic-American elected to statewide office in New Jersey ... joining a handful of Hispanic candidates elected statewide across the country. It will be interesting to see how much support he received in the Hispanic community. And whether his election suggests "Latino Power" has been a factor or if it was all just a good old-fashioned Democratic Party victory in a deep blue state.
CONTINUED >>
NBC News projects that Republican Charlie Crist will be elected Florida governor, taking the place of fellow Republican (and presidential brother) Jeb Bush.
NBC News projects that South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds, a Republican, will be re-elected.
NBC News projects that Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a Republican, will be re-elected.
NBC News projects that South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, a Republican, will win re-election.
RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman, after doing a couple of television interviews, responded to a question from reporters about his dinner at the White House.
He was asked about the mood inside the White House. Despite Democratic gains, Mehlman said, "the mood was good."
NBC News declares Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse as the projected winner in Rhode Island, unseating maverick Republican Lincoln Chafee.
NBC News projects that Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, a Democrat, will win the Maryland governorship - unseating Republican incumbent Robert Ehrlich.
NBC News projects that Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, both Democrats, will be re-elected.
The County Clerk from Jasper County, Missouri, has changed his mind and will indeed count all ballots tonight and call the races in that county. It will likely be in the wee hours of the morning.
For those of you in Missouri, put on another pot of coffee and get ready for a long, long night.
NBC News projects that Democrat Ben Cardin will win the open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland. That seat was vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes, which means it remains in the "blue zone."
NBC News projects that Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat who ran as an independent after he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the primary, will win re-election. Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats - but he's also considered more sympathetic to Bush administration policies, particularly on national security, than most others in his party.
Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
It's been two hours since the polls closed in a handful of states. And, so far there have been no surprises.
In the Senate, Democrats have picked up two seats and held one of their open seats. In Pennsylvania, Democratic state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. unseated GOP Sen. Rick Santorum. And, in Ohio, Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown has defeated Republican incumbent Mike DeWine. In Minnesota, Democratic nominee Amy Klobuchar won the seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Mark Dayton. This is a net gain of two seats for Democrats, meaning that they need to gain four seats to win the majority.
CONTINUED >>
According to NBC News, these are projected Senate winners: Democrats Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Kent Conrad of North Dakota, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico, Hillary Clinton of New York and Herb Kohl of Wisconsin; and Republicans Kay Hutchison of Texas and Craig Thomas of Wyoming.
In gubernatorial races, here are the projected winners: Arizona Democrat Janet Napolitano, Michigan Democrat Jennifer Granholm, Nebraska Republican Dave Heineman, New Mexico Democrat Bill Richardson, New York Democrat Eliot Spitzer (who represents a party changeover), Wyoming Democrat Dave Freudenthal and Oklahoma Democrat Brad Henry.
Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, a Republican, is projected to win re-election.
The Senate races in Arizona and Rhode Island are judged too early to call.
From NBC's Mark Murray
So far, according to NBC News and AP projections, Democrats have picked up two Senate seats (Mike DeWine's in Ohio and Rick Santorum's in Pennsylvania); two governorships (in Massachusetts and Ohio), and at least one House seat (John Hostettler's in Indiana).
To take back control of the Senate, Democrats need to net six seats, and to win back the House they need 15.
NBC News projects that Democrat Sherrod Brown will be elected to the U.S. Senate from Ohio, unseating GOP incumbent Mike DeWine. By NBC's tally, this would represent a gain of two seats for the Democrats in the Senate so far.
Robert Traynham, Santorum campaign spokesperson, tells NBC News that Santorum is NOT conceding.
"Exit polls have been wrong before," Traynham said.
NBC News projects that Democrat Bob Menendez will win re-election to the U.S. Senate in New Jersey.
NBC News has projected that Republican incumbent M. Jodi Rell will win re-election to the governorship in Connecticut. NBC is not characterizing the state's U.S. Senate race.
NBC News projects that Democrat Bob Casey will win the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, unseating GOP incumbent Rick Santorum. That represents a Democratic pickup in the Senate.
A senior advisor to Rep. Harold Ford Jr. says some of the early Tennesse exit polls are incomplete.
"This does not take into account early vote or unprecedented turnout in the black community," the advisor said. "Nobody needs to tell you that exit polls in last two cycles are like getting your palm read."
From NBC's Kevin Tibbles and Mark Hudspeth
What happens when they build the closest senate race in the nation ... and they come?
That's what election workers in at least two Missouri counties are dealing with at the moment, as a tidal-wave voter turnout has swept up all the ballots in both Jasper and Jefferson counties.
CONTINUED >>
NBC News projects that Democrats Bill Nelson of Florida, Thomas Carper of Delaware and Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts will win re-election to the Senate, as will Republicans Olympia Snowe of Maine and Trent Lott of Mississippi.
Senate races in Connecticut, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee are judged too early to call.
In gubernatorial races, Democrat Deval Patrick is the projected winner in Massachusetts - which would represent a party changeover. Democrat Ed Rendell is projected to win re-election to the governorship in Pennsylvania, as is Democrat Phil Bredesen in Tennessee and Democrat John Lynch in New Hampshire.
Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
What does a political analyst do on Election Day? Apart from trying to imbibe enough caffeine to stay up all night, we field two kinds of frantic calls and e-mail from campaigns, consultants, reporters and friends. The first kind of call comes in the form of questions: Is voter turnout higher than normal or about the same? What do the exit polls say in (insert the race you care most about here)?
In reality, we know very little. How high or low turnout is can't be determined until after the polls close and ballots are counted and compared to turnout in past elections. And, this Election Day we knew even less thanks to a well-considered decision to withold exit poll information until 5:00 pm.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC contributor Bob Shrum
Tom Delay offered the Republicans an early evening recommendation that could make a bad election outcome worse – or even catastrophic.
He invented this wonderful phrase “lame duck majority,” in effect conceding defeat before anyone could announce it and while the polls were still open. His strategy, which has contributed so much to bringing the Republicans to this night, is obliviously to stick a thumb in the eyes of the voters if the Democrats prevail, marshal the defeated ranks of the Republican Congress and force through more of the policies that America has just repudiated.
CONTINUED >>
NBC News projects that Democrat Ted Strickland will win the governor's race in Ohio, and Democratic incumbent Robert Byrd will win the West Virginia Senate race. The Ohio Senate race is currently judged too close to call. Ohio's outgoing governor, Bob Taft, is a Republican - so Strickland's projected win would represent a party changeover, and he would be the first Democrat to hold the Ohio governorship in 16 years.
Circuit Court Judge F. Keith Brown in Illinois' Kane County (which includes the suburban west side of Chicago and Aurora) has ruled that polling places in all 223 of the county's precincts should remain open an additional 90 minutes, until 8:30 p.m. CT.
This comes in response to a motion filed by the Kane County state's attorney, who found evidence that at least 10 precincts (mostly Latino) opened as much as two hours late this morning. According to the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund, which also sought the court order, "many voters walked away unable to exercise their right to vote" due to the delay.
A federal judge in Ohio has ordered Cuyahoga County to keep 16 Cleveland-area polling places open an extra 90 minutes, until 9 p.m. ET, because of long lines and earlier problems with voting machines. The order came in response to a lawsuit filed by the Ohio Democratic Party.
NBC News projects that independent Bernie Sanders will win the open Senate seat in Vermont, and Republican incumbent Richard Lugar is the projected winner in Indiana. Polls have closed in Virginia, but the Senate race there is currently judged too close to call.
From NBC's Doug Adams and the "Making Your Vote Count" team
There are reports in Jefferson County and Joplin, Mo., that due to high voter turnout, some precincts ran out of paper "optical scan" ballots, forcing pollworkers to photocopy additional ballots.
Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, said that photocopying ballots can cause the timing marks to become misaligned - and the ballots might therefore not be counted properly. As a result, jurisdictions might need to copy the voter's marks onto properly printed ballots before they can be counted in the scanning device.
Depending on state law, this process could be delayed until Wednesday. The bottom line? If the Missouri Senate race is close, we could be waiting until then to find out who the winner is.
From NBC's Tom Costello
Extremely heavy rain in Eastern Tennessee at 6 p.m. Eastern could play a role in voter turnout.
Eastern Tennessee is considered Republican territory. The rain cleared out of Western Tennessee, a more Democratic-leaning region of the state, early this morning.
The Harold Ford campaign, headquartered tonight in Memphis, believes this could play to their advantage. The Dems are also looking at their own polling, which contradicts a Mason Dixon poll showing a 12-point lead for Bob Corker.
The Ford camp insists it is still optimistic that with heavy early voter and African-American turnout, it could be a long night before we learn the final results.
The Associated Press and KUSA-TV are reporting that a Colorado judge has turned down a request from the state Democratic Party to keep the polls open for an extra two hours in Denver. It's not clear whether the ruling would be appealed.
Some voters had to wait several hours to vote because of computer problems. AP noted that Denver voters had the longest statewide ballot in decades and may have been unfamiliar with new voting machines.
A Republican spokesman told AP that the request for extended hours was “outrageous,” but he also said anyone in line at the 7 p.m. MT closing time would be allowed to vote.
From NBC's Ron Allen and John Zito
Republican senatorial candidate Tom Kean Jr. is catching New Jersey voters at a last-minute stop, and then meeting his wife and two young daughters to head to their "victory party," says the campaign. The family portrait is a reminder of one of the state senator's final ads - which featured the family, especially the two cute kids, helping Dad say, "We approved this message...."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lisa Daniels
Pennsylvania's Republican Party says it has filed an official complaint with the state government, alleging failures in voting machines. One aide to Republican Sen. Rick Santorum just told me they believe "hundreds" of votes are affected by these machine malfunctions.
The complaint claims that votes for Santorum were not counted - that they were either met with a "malfunction" signal or incorrectly cast as votes for Democratic challenger Bob Casey. Santorum's aides say they are waiting for an official response from the state.
The response from Casey's campaign? The Democrats say there is no evidence of voting problems, aside from one or two isolated incidents unrelated to Santorum's claims. One said privately that the complaints were "an early attempt to explain away a Casey victory."
Meanwhile, the Santorum camp contends that the most commonly cited polls, showing Casey with a double-digit lead over Santorum, are inaccurate. "Get ready for his grassroots campaign to kick in ... and we will win," one campaign official said.
Casey's folks say they are very happy with the voter turnout, especially in the Philly suburbs. Stay tuned...
From NBC's Ron Allen and John Zito
Heading into the home stretch, aides in Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez's camp say they're feeling pretty good. They think turnout is close to 49 percent - for some reason, they didn't round it up to 50 percent. Anyway, that about what it was for the last governor's race, when Democrat Jon Corzine won. So for Democrats, the turnout figure looks good.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Patrice Fletcher with Alan Cohen
Voting problems come and go in the battleground state of Ohio as it makes the transition from punch-card, paper ballots to electronic voting. In Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), election officials say early-morning problems with electronic card-swipes at about a half-dozen polling places have now been "ironed out." But lawyers and volunteers monitoring the election process at Ohio State University's Moritz College of Law have heard reports of "widespread" provisional voting. Terri Enns, senior fellow with the Moritz election law unit, says that voters are given provisional ballots when there are questions about their identification. Voters are given 10 days to return with valid identification.
In Ohio, voters are asked to show government-issued identification - such as Social Security cards, drivers licenses, military IDs, even utility bills with a current address. If the name on the ID presented at the polling place does not match the name on the voter rolls, then the voter is given a provisional ballot.
And now for something completely different: a little comic relief from independent Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman. The Jewish cowboy singer-songwriter fancies himself as a populist candidate cut from the same flashy cloth as Minnesota's gonzo wrestler-governor, Jesse Ventura. And even though few pundits see him as a serious threat to incumbent Texas Gov. Rick Perry, that's not putting a dent in Friedman's one-liners - as evidenced by his interview this afternoon with MSNBC's Tucker Carlson.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Doug Adams and the "Making Your Vote Count" team
Serious voting problems cropped up this morning in Utah County, Utah - the county that includes Provo. The problem deals with "encoders" - the machine that programs the access cards voters have to have to use touchscreen machines. Voters were delayed for two to three hours in many if not all of the county's 207 precincts.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Rehema Ellis
WARWICK, RI -- As the attention now turns from campaigning to voting, Rhode Islanders are among those being closely watched. A short while ago Bob Kando, Executive Director of the state board of elections told me that as of this afternoon the turnout in Rhode Island is higher than average. Kando says there have been long lines at some polling places in Providence and Warwick. But Kando says this is happening in part because voters are taking more time once inside the voting booths because there are several local issues on the ballot.
For example, there is a THREE PAGE ballot in Providence. That's on top of a series of elections for local and state offices and, of course, the all important race for the U.S. Senate.
The Associated Press reports that polling hours in Lebanon County, Pa., will be extended due to voting glitches:
One hiccup arose Tuesday morning in Lebanon County, where election officials extended polling hours throughout the county by one hour, to 9 p.m. [ET], after a programming error affected devices that set up the ballot machines for each voter, said county administrator Jamie Wolgemuth.
Wolgemuth said the programming problem, which was caused by human error, arose after polls opened at 7 a.m., and some voters cast paper ballots. The glitch was resolved within an hour, though polling hours were extended to accommodate those who may have been delayed in the morning.
Update for 3:50 p.m. ET: It turns out that local delays like this are not likely to affect the schedule for announcing projected election outcomes. NBC News' policy, for example, is to hold off on projecting or characterizing a race prior to the scheduled closing time for the last poll to close in a state. The key word is "scheduled": Thus, you may hear about the projected outcome of the Senate race between Republican incumbent Rick Santorum and Democratic challenger Bob Casey shortly after 8 p.m. ET, even though some polls will still be open.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
NBC News received an unsolicited call today from an aide to a Senate Democrat who says that there is a movement afoot to deny Sen. Joe Lieberman the chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee should Democrats take control of the Senate. The aide, who works for a Democratic senator now sitting on that same committee, cites Lieberman's party apostasy, as well as his public consorting with known Republicans such as GOP Sen. Susan Collins, the current chair.
The aide says that there are others who share this sentiment, but calls to the Democratic leadership and another Democratic committee member yielded no insight into the insurgency. They hadn't heard a thing about it. Lieberman, as top Democrat on the committee, would be in line to be chairman if Democrats take control and if Lieberman remains a Democrat -- which he has said he'll be if he wins tonight.
***UPDATE at 4:15pm ET*** Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Democratic sources say there is no discussion of removing Lieberman for his current post on the Homeland Security Committee. "I don't think the caucus would support it" even if there was a serious suggestion to do so, a source said.
From NBC's Doug Adams and the "Making Your Vote Count" team
We've been running down reports of voting problems in several states. None has been terribly serious, but here's an update:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Hudspeth
ST. LOUIS, Mo. - Both Republican and Democratic sources are reporting that voter turnout appears to be unusually high in both St. Louis County and smaller rural counties in the rest of the state. Traditionally, Democrats in this state have won by running up large margins in St. Louis and Kansas City. But this strategy has come up short in recent years as Republicans refined their get-out-the-vote operation in rural Missouri. One way that Democratic senatorial challenger Claire McCaskill hoped to change the equation was by reaching out to rural voters.
The crystal methamphetamine epidemic has hit America's heartland hard - a fact that I was reminded of today when I had to leave downtown St. Louis in order to find a drugstore where I could buy allergy medicine I had forgotten at home.
Both candidates stressed their records on meth in advertisements and stump speeches throughout the campaign. McCaskill highlighted her record prosecuting meth cases, while Republican incumbent Jim Talent touted legislation he co-sponsored in the Senate to help fight meth labs. President Bush even mentioned Talent's efforts to fight meth while campaigning for him in deeply red southwest Missouri last week.
Rural America, where fighting meth is a huge issue, is clearly one of the wildcards in this election. In addition to talking tough on meth, McCaskill has been touring the state in a recreational vehicle with her mother and highlighting her rural roots. If early reports of turnout in those counties prove to be true, how receptive those voters were to Democratic outreach efforts may prove to be the deciding factor in this pivotal race.
From NBC's Ron Allen
New Jersey deputy attorneys general are monitoring four polling places in Paterson after the Republican Party complained about voting machines being pre-set or locked to vote for Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez. "So far, they have not seen the problem occurring," one source said.
The Associated Press quotes Colorado Democratic Party officials as saying that they'll ask a state judge to keep Denver polling places open for two extra hours today.
As NBC News has reported, computer problems have forced some voters to wait several hours, while others are reportedly being turned away. State Democratic Party Chairwoman Pat Waak says the request for extended hours would probably be limited to Denver. Colorado election law specifies a 7 p.m. MT (9 p.m. ET) closing time for polling places.
From NBC's Ron Allen
Mark Sheridan of the New Jersey GOP says there's a "developing and disturbing trend" of voters going into an electronic voting booth and finding that the machine already has registered a vote for Democratic Senate incumbent Bob Menendez.. They're saying complaints keep coming into their office. "It's too widespread for it to be a coincidence," Sheridan said.
He said the state attorney general's office has been alerted. "If it continues, we're going to court," Sheridan said. GOP officials say they've not heard of a case where a machine was locked or preset for Tom Kean Jr., Menendez's Republican challenger.
How widespread is this? They're being a bit cagey about that. The GOP says it has obtained signed affidavits from four voters and they're gathering more, from "multiple voters at multiple locations." They also claim that several voters who complained have been "tossed out of polling places."
The GOP says some of the polling places that have been cited are in "Democratic areas."
This is the second GOP dirty-tricks complaint of the day.
From NBC's Ron Allen
EAST BRUNSWICK, N.J. - Have you heard the one about the two inmates in the New Jersey prison having lunch? One inmate says to the other, "The food was much better when you were governor." And so the bashing of New Jersey goes. And right upfront, let me say, this is my home state. I grew up in Jersey City in Hudson County, and Hillside in Union County, which also happen to be the home counties of the two candidates for the U.S. Senate. Just an interesting coincidence that really has nothing to do with this story.
Corruption has been the Republican Tom Kean Jr's loudest campaign theme. The war in Iraq and the Bush administration's failures are what Democrat Robert Menendez has trumpeted. And in so many other states, those national issues have given Democrats a huge boost. But here, it's the charge of corruption that's been dragging Menendez down. A charge he flatly rejects after a life in public service and 14 years in the Congress without an ethical blemish, he insists.
So why does the mud stick here, and how corrupt is New Jersey?
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC’s Chris Jansing
HARTFORD, CT -- More than $30 million dollars has been spent on the Connecticut Senate race -- demolishing the previous record of a little over $7 million. If the secretary of state here is right and there's a record turnout (a morning canvass showed 12 key precincts about 30% ahead of the 2002 election) that's still well over $25 a vote. So much for the theory that negative advertising suppresses voter turnout. The campaigns for Senate and three too-close-to-call House races have been brutal. At least the sun was shining this morning -- it's been a gorgeous New England day with rain in the forecast later.
The morning was not without its problems, however. Voting was briefly stopped at one precinct in West Hartford because ballots had a wrong name on them in a state representative race. Dan Tapper from the secretary of state's office told me voting was stopped "for less than an hour" and everything is up and running now. He couldn't say how many people had been turned away from the polling place. Twenty-nine people voted on machines with the incorrect ballots, and those machines are now locked down.
Also, some bad robo-calls went out from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in places like New London and Old Saybrook. DCCC spokesman Bill Burton confirms the problem, which directed people to their primary polling place, which is different from the general election polling place. He says the calls were stopped as soon as the problem was brought to their attention, corrected, and then resumed with the correct information. He believes "a small number" of the thousands of robo-calls being made in Connecticut were incorrect.
From NBC's Les Kretman
Per a White House source, what's likely to happen there tonight is that the President will have dinner in the residence with Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman and then watch the results on TV with longtime friend Brad Freeman, White House chief of staff Josh Bolten, Karl Rove and other senior staff. He's not expected to appear on camera tonight.
From NBC's Doug Adams and the "Make Your Vote Count" team
There were long lines this morning in Denver outside some polling places, where hundreds lined up to wait. Among them was Democratic gubernatorial candidate Bill Ritter, who spent several hours waiting in a line outside a voting center in Washington Park in Denver.
We talked with Alton Dillard, the spokesman for the Denver City Election Commission, and it appears that the problem has to do with the electronic "pollbook" and not the voting machines themselves. Pollbooks are the electronic connections that link precincts to the city's master list of registered voters.
Similar problems with this type of "electronic pollbook" caused massive problems in Maryland's Montgomery County during the September primary.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi still isn't making any predictions. During a brief exchange with her as she was leaving the Capitol, and asked for her election day outlook, she replied, "I still just don't know." She added that she has refused to make any predictions all along. At various points over the last few months, she has said that if the election were held on that day, Democrats would carry a majority.
Asked if she expects an early night, Pelosi said, "If it's an early night then it's a big night," which might be kind of obvious.
Pelosi was literally on the arm of her closest confidant here in the House, fellow San Francisco bay area Rep. George Miller, as she made her way from the House steps to a waiting US Capitol Police SUV. She was fresh off a weekly magazine photo-shoot in her leader's office
From NBC's Tom Costello
MEMPHIS -- Voters in Tennessee are watching the weather today. Miserable, cold, rainy weather has moved out of Democratic-leaning Memphis -- and on to Eastern Tennessee, an area that leans more Republican. The question today: will the sloppy weather keep voters home?
The electorate in Tennessee can be forgiven for being anxious to put this election behind them. It's all about who will replace Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. And will a Southern state elect the first African-American Senator since Reconstruction?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Doug Adams and the "Make Your Vote Count" team
As more than 80 million voters go the polls today around the country, NBC News is watching for problems at the polls. The journalists on our little team, led by correspondent Chip Reid, are running down any problems that we hear about. We are aided in our effort by Kim Brace, the president of Election Data Services, a consulting firm that specializes in election administration and voting equipment. He has more than three decades in the election business.
And while we probably won't have to worry about hanging chads, there's a whole new lexicon that we are having to learn - DRE's and VVPATs.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
In the category of "no good deed goes unpunished," some of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents could be moderates who defied the White House and supported Democratic causes. Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee is the most obvious example, but in fact there are House members throughout the Northeast who are at risk as Democratic activists sense they have a real shot at retaking the House. Case in point: Rep. Jim Gerlach in southeastern Pennsylvania, running against Democratic challenger Lois Murphy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lisa Daniels
PITTSBURGH - We just came back from Republican Sen. Rick Santorum's latest campaign stop - a phone bank where 40 volunteers are working the phones at a feverish pace. As the candidate entered the room, someone shouted out: "Go get 'em, Rick!"
The mood? Upbeat. Santorum told me he thinks the polls (indicating he's trailing Democrat Robert Casey Jr. by a double-digit lead) are inaccurate. He pointed to the volunteers - called them "his secret weapon" - and projected a win.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Is today going to get any crazier? NBC affiliate WAVE-TV is reporting on a poll worker, at a Ford auto plant union hall in Kentucky, who apparently choked a voter. WAVE has been told that this poll worker has been arrested.
From NBC's Patrice Fletcher with Alan Cohen
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Election officials here are calling the voter turnout "moderate" and consistent with previous midterm elections. A spokesman at the Ohio Secretary of State's office said they are still expecting a 54 percent turnout. That is slightly higher than the turnouts of the last 10 years, but lower than the 1994 record of 56 percent.
From NBC's Ron Allen
In New Jersey's senatorial campaign, Republican candidate Tom Kean Jr.'s aides are charging that opponents "already have resorted to Election Day dirty tricks."
Last night, vandals chained shut the Kean campaign's headquarters in Mountainside, N.J., and broke keys off in the door locks to prevent entry, according to aides. "It's Jersey ... this is not surprising," Kean spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker told us. "It's the Menendez campaign, or their supporters," she added, but without offering evidence.
"It's just a lot of noise," was the response from campaign aides for Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez. They say they have "thousands" of lawyers at polling places across the site, especially where they expect problems - such as Essex and Hudson County, two big urban Democratic areas.
Menendez's folks are checking out a report of electronic voting problems in Essex County, where voting machines are reportedly defaulting to certain candidates rather than voters' choices. Whatever is happening there, they say that the problems don't appear to be widespread and that right now the voting process is "basically smooth."
From NBC's Courtney Kube
There's no word on how many military absentee ballots have been returned (they're counted by the states), but through October 29, approximately 137,000 absentee ballots were sent out to overseas military addresses, with approximately 400,000 currently overseas active duty military and active reserve personnel eligible to vote. The Pentagon defines this as the number of ballots that have traveled through a military mail facility. Some may not yet have been counted (sent in a package from a family member, etc.).
A Pentagon official says that when the ballots get counted is up to the states. Nearly all hold the ballots until Election Day.
This is the first year that the Pentagon has tracked the number of absentee ballots. For perspective, in 2004, 73% of all active members of the military voted, absentee, and otherwise. In the last midterm election in 2002, 42% voted. These percentages come from the Pentagon's regular post-election survey, which is mandated by Congress and is taken of all active members of the military.
From NBC's Ron Mott and Patrice Fletcher
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Here in the Buckeye State, the focus is not so much on the individual races but on the voting process, which was beset by problems during the 2004 presidential election. Already today, issues have been reported around the state with electronic voting machines, optical scanners, long lines and voter identification.
Two Republican House members reportedly encountered difficulties at their respective polling stations. U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot was said to be turned away for not having proper identification, and Rep. Jean Schmidt could not get the scanner to accept her ballot.
CONTINUED >>
From Kevin Tibbles and Mark Hudspeth
ST. LOUIS, MO -- At more than $40 million, Missouri's senate race is the most expensive in the country. After just 30 minutes of television it's easy to see why. Even on Election Day, political ads - nasty ones - blanket local television. One accuses Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill of overlooking a rape at nursing home owned by her husband. Another features an Iraq War veteran who blames Republican incumbent Jim Talent for having to wait six months for a doctor's appointment after he returned to the war. More than half of the money spent in this race has come from outside the state: congressional campaign committees and trade lobbies hoping to influence the out come of a Senate race that's still too close call.
Ironically, even with all the outside money being poured into this race, it may be a homegrown issue that proves to be pivotal. The state's controversial ballot initiative on stem-cell research gained national attention after Rush Limbaugh mocked an ad featuring Michael J. Fox, but the initiative Fox was advocating doesn't actually legalize or criminalize any activity. Amendment 2, as the measure is known, adds to the state's constitution the right to do any research allowed by federal law in Missouri. Proponents of stem-cell research who hope to make Missouri a nationwide hub for medical research placed the initiative on the ballot. It's essentially an effort to head off the state legislature, which has tried and failed in recent years to criminalize certain types of embryonic stem-cell research.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
We've received reports of problems with voting machines in Florida, Indiana and Utah -- and one car that ran into a polling place in Springfield, OH. NBC affiliate WDTN reports there was "some damage" to the building, but people inside don't appear to have been hurt. The male driver also was not hurt -- and was able to vote.
From NBC's Patrice Fletcher
COLUMBUS, OH -- Some facts about media coverage in this key battleground state. Per Mary Webster, the assistant director of the Columbus' public services, they have had 35 requests for media parking permits -- which beats the record of 13 in the 2004 presidential election. That is 35 requests from 20 media organizations for satellite truck spaces. Meanwhile, the Ohio GOP has had more than 40 media requests for its election night party, and the state Democratic Party has requests from 67 outlets for its own party.
By NBC's Les Kretman
The language at the elementary school is usually French, but not today. It is Ecole Primaire (the French International School) every day of the year, but not on Election Day in Chevy Chase, MD. And usually on Election Day, turnout here among suburban voters is genteel and sublimely civil, everyone knowing everyone --- perhaps something for a budding Monet or Seurat to paint.
But this year as I approached our polling place, it was obvious that something was very different. Cars parked every which way as if their drivers were present for a sporting event. And that was just the start of it. Inside, a long line queuing up to volunteers to confirm who you are --- and then an even longer line snaking up to the voting machines.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lisa Daniels
Pittsburgh -- We're running out to meet Sen. Rick Santorum (R) at his campaign headquarters. He'll be joining volunteers in phone-banking and then will be available for some questions. We'll be chatting with the Senator and you can be sure, I'll pass on what he tells me...
Is Santorum still in this race? The polls show his Democratic challenger Bob Casey with a substantial double-digit lead. But Santorum told a group of voters yesterday that he believes those polls do not reflect a "silent vote" -- Pennsylvania residents who will be voting for him who have not been counted by pollsters. As one of his campaign aides told us yesterday, no one can "close" a race like Santorum -- "he is the ultimate closer."
As for Casey's campaign, aides say the polls give them reason to be optimistic. One senior aide says, "Just take a look at the number of people attending Casey's rallies compared to Santorum's." But they also admit, voter turnout is key today.
At last.
The Bushes have voted in Texas and are en route to the White House. The Republican National Committee is trying to cast doubt on the exit polls. The campaign committees are at war over robo-calls and the FBI is checking out suspicious phone calls in the Virginia Senate race. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told her caucus on a conference call yesterday, per a House Democratic source, "If we win -- that's not a certainty -- if we win, our first presentation is very important... We will show we are unified, respectful of people's views, have a willingness to work with the Republicans and the President." Waiting on the birth of her sixth grandchild, Pelosi may scrap her schedule at any moment.
Now that the day is here, and with nonpartisan analysts and many Republican strategists seeing Democrats retaking control of the House and within striking distance of retaking the Senate, it's worth pointing out how markedly different today's political landscape looks from two years ago.
CONTINUED >>
And perhaps you won't have to wait long, says the Wall Street Journal, which covers expectations that the data will leak long before the networks' "quarantine" lifts at 5:00 pm ET.
"Turnout should increase from 39.7% in 2002 and may exceed the most recent midterm high of 42.1% in 1982, according to Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate. Gans does not expect this year's turnout to top the all-time benchmark of 47% in 1970," per USA Today.
CONTINUED >>
There's a lot to keep track of today. So, we've created a chart to include the latest poll closing time in each state, what kind of voting equpment they'll be using today and which key races to keep an eye out for.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Kim Sneed
Crawford, TX -- The First Couple voted at the Crawford Fire Station, in Precinct 80 for McClennan County, Texas. The Bushes are among 1,847 registered voters who will cast their ballots electronically. Election officials here expect 65% turnout, and say the voting system does provide a paper trail for votes. "Government is only as good as the willingness of all people to participate," Bush said. "No matter what your affiliation... do your duty."
From MSNBC's David Shuster
Richmond, VA -- Jean Jensen, Secretary of the Virginia State Board of Elections, confirms that the FBI is now looking into possible voter intimidation in the US Senate race between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb. Jensen says state officials alerted the Justice Department yesterday to several complaints of suspicious phone calls to voters that attempted to misdirect or confuse them about election day. She adds she has now been contacted by FBI agents. The FBI in Richmond refuses to comment.
In a written statement issued by the Webb campaign, state Democratic party counsel Jay Myerson says he believes that Republicans are behind an orchestrated effort to suppress votes for Webb. Republican officials, including the executive director of the Virginia Republican party, say the GOP and the Allen campaign are focused on mobilizing voters and have not discouraged anyone from voting.
From NBC's Gena Fitzgerald
If you use Stevie Wonder’s song as a way to judge popularity in this election week, I am truly beloved by both Republicans and Democrats in Virginia. I am beloved morning, noon, and night. It doesn’t seem to matter if they get the real me or the answering machine -- all I do is say hello and they do the rest of the work.
It’s the "robo-call," those automated telephone calls used by telemarketers and seemingly perfected by the two parties for the upcoming election.
Both parties in the Virginia Senate race apparently have my home number on speed dial. From about Friday evening at about 7:30 pm until Saturday evening at 10:00 pm, we counted just over two dozen calls. We simply gave up on Sunday. I’ve had Newt Gingrich and Jim Webb call. I foolishly thought that by signing up for the Federal Trade Commissions "Do Not Call" list, it would save me from robo-calls. Apparently not.
Why do they do this? Don’t they know most people already hate telemarketers with a passion? I’m starting to actually miss the telemarketers; you at least get the chance to interrupt the live person to say, "Excuse me, and please take me off your call list," and then they hang up on you. But you get the chance to engage, to feel that you’ve won just one small battle.
There is no such satisfaction with a robo-call. They talk, you listen, you hang up, they call again. And again. And again. My hope is that when they go home at the end of the day, their own voicemail is filled with robo-call messages. Robo-calls encourage me to vote for one thing only: no more robocalls.
And I mean it from the bottom of my heart.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel, the respective chairs of the Democratic Senate and House campaign committees, held press conferences today (Schumer's on camera; Emanuel's by phone) guaranteeing a change of course in Iraq -- if Democrats take control of Congress. "Should we get into office, there will be a change of course in Iraq," Schumer declared. "We have to make 2007 a year of transition." (Of course, that differed from Howard Dean's assessment a week ago that Democrats "don't have the ability" to force Bush to change the course there, although he did say that they could put pressure to enact timetables and benchmarks.)
Asked how Democrats would be able to change the course, Emanuel pointed to the committees that would be under Democratic control and the oversight that they would conduct. He specifically mentioned a look into where some $12 billion in money for reconstruction has gone. Schumer also said that the polls suggesting that Republicans are closing in on the Democrats were not reflected in his private polling. "It may be in conservative districts," he offered.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Aides say that President Bush will add a few new phrases to his stump speech on the economy today, criticizing Democrats' alleged "doom and gloom" view of what the White House sees as a strong economy. Bush will make three stops today in Florida, Arkansas and Texas.
Advisors say the White House was told yesterday morning that Florida gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist would not be appearing appear with the President, First Lady and Gov. Jeb Bush today in Pensacola. When asked about the Crist snub, Karl Rove said to the traveling press pool, "Let's see how many people show up in Palm Beach on 24 hours notice versus 8,000 or 9,000 people in Pensacola."
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we already wrote this morning, Florida GOP gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist is skipping this afternoon's rally in Pensacola, FL with the president and First Lady. Yet Crist's campaign just put out word that he will join Sen. John McCain (R) at an event in Jacksonville around the same time as the Pensacola rally.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
No party has ever retaken the House without winning the Senate, but that may change tomorrow. A tightening of a handful of key Senate races, per the latest round of MSNBC/McClatchy polls conducted by Mason-Dixon, suggests that Democrats are more likely to gain five seats or fewer than the six seats needed to retake control. In addition to winning Pennsylvania and Ohio, Democrats would need to run the table on all the tight races -- GOP-held Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island and Virginia, plus their own seat in Maryland -- to net six. Or, they'd need to win four of those five plus pick up Tennessee, which may be more out of reach, though Democrats say the latest polls don't accurately reflect high early voting by African-Americans.
In the event of a five-seat Democratic gain and a 50-50 Senate, Republicans would continue to hold a nominal majority by virtue of Vice President Cheney's ability to break a tie vote. Speculation will begin immediately about whether Republicans will agree to share power with Democrats per the agreement struck by leaders Trent Lott (R) and Tom Daschle (D) after the 2000 election, the last time the Senate was 50-50. Under that agreement, which was unprecedented at the time, both parties had an equal number of seats on the key committees that draft bills and handle presidential nominees. Other provisions were implemented to avoid gridlock.
CONTINUED >>
Saddam Hussein has been sentenced to death by hanging. President Bush called it an "important achievement." How much of a factor will it be in the election? The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken the weekend before, shows 37% of registered voters saying that removing Hussein from power was worth the financial and human cost; 54% said it wasn't worth it.
Vice President Cheney told ABC that the Administration is going "full steam ahead" with its Iraq policy no matter what happens tomorrow. Republican Senate campaign committee chair Elizabeth Dole charged on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday that Democrats "appear to be content with losing, because to pull out from this war is losing."
CONTINUED >>
After keeping disparate campaign schedules for weeks, with Laura Bush helping out some of the party's most vulnerable candidates and her husband more limited in where he can go, the Bushes team up for stops in Pensacola, FL; Bentonville, AR; and Dallas, after which they head to the ranch -- and the polling place tomorrow. But GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist is skipping the Pensacola rally, and the latest reflection of Bush's curtailed popularity is that the top GOP candidate he'll be appearing with on-stage will be Senate nominee Katherine Harris.
About 10,000 supporters will greet Bush today in Pensacola, says the AP, which also reports that Gov. Jeb Bush (R) will appear in Crist's place.
Bob Novak wonders if Bush’s final campaign swing across the country has served only to nationalize this election, which experts believe won't help the GOP. “The hard truth apparent to realists in both parties is that, quite apart from what Bush did or did not do, the election has been nationalized around two standards that could not be more unfavorable to the GOP: an unpopular war and an unpopular president.”
CONTINUED >>
Nonpartisan analysts like NBC's Charlie Cook advise that as an election draws nearer, the generic ballot test can mean less and can be all over the map because the dynamics of intensifying individual races take over. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken last weekend showed Democrats with a 15-point lead over Republicans on the generic ballot test among registered voters. Several of the final pre-election nonpartisan national polls show narrower margins:
-- Pew shows 47% of likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate for Congress and 43% preferring the Republican candidate, with Bush's job approval rating at 41% among registered voters.
-- Time magazine shows 55% of likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate for Congress and 40% preferring the Republican candidate, and Bush's job approval rating at 37% among registered voters.
-- The Washington Post/ABC show 51% of likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 45% preferring the Republican, and Bush's job approval rating at 40%.
-- Newsweek shows 54% of likely voters preferring the Democrat and 32% preferring the Republican, and Bush's job approval rating at 35%.
CONTINUED >>
CNBC's Patti Domm advises that investors will focus on the midterms this week despite the lack of interest among traders in the weeks leading up to the election. Tom Gallagher of economic research firm ISI says he sees about a 25% chance that Republicans will hang onto both chambers of Congress, which would cause a short-term relief rally. If Democrats win both, there could be a short term sell-off, he says. He also stresses there are no signs that electoral uncertainty has been holding back the stock market, as it did in the 2004 presidential elections.
Bloomberg says divided government could be good for the deficit. "Divided government would mean neither Democrats nor Republicans would be able on their own to push through budget-busting programs, either spending increases or tax cuts. When Republicans took control of the House of Representatives in 1994, during the presidency of Democrat Bill Clinton, it set the stage for four years of budget surpluses."
The Wall Street Journal says that beyond security issues, "Republicans are trying to reach out to their supporters and independents on tax issues." But [w]ith Mr. Bush holding a veto pen for the next two years, many voters see little immediate threat. Moreover, Democratic candidates who challenge the president's tax cuts typically target the highest brackets." Also: "A new, upbeat jobs report released last week buoyed Republican spirits. But the party can't escape the cloud of pessimism that hangs over voters in the regions hit by the loss of high-paying manufacturing jobs."
Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman has sent a memo to the press -- er, to GOP supporters touting the narrowing generic ballot result and the strength of the RNC's GOTV efforts.
The Washington Post says in its look at the two parties' last-minute pushes to get out the vote, "GOP strategists said they think their prospects continue to improve as voters digest the guilty verdict against former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, positive economic statistics and the prospect of Democrats taking control of one or both chambers of the legislative branch... A senior GOP strategist said party officials anticipated that the generic vote would tighten, but they do not consider the shift significant enough to change the contours of this election. More than 20 GOP incumbents are tied with their opponents heading into the final days."
The New York Times writes that win or lose tomorrow, “Mr. Bush and his aides are charting a course that they say will take the president back to his roots as Texas governor, when he worked in a more bipartisan way with Democrats. They are piecing together a domestic agenda that includes reviving the president’s failed bid to overhaul entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.” More: “But it is not clear how much bipartisanship is possible, even if Mr. Bush proves serious about it.”
CONTINUED >>
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi holds a conference call with the Democratic caucus today to talk about the latest developments in the election and about Democratic "voter-protection" efforts.
"The Democrats face their own pressures" with this election, Bloomberg notes. "So many pollsters and pundits are predicting they will win the House that failing to do so might seriously rock the party's confidence and future... Also, while Democrats have benefited from their opposition to Iraq, should they gain power they may be expected to come up with a solution to the war. Some Democrats urge their party to resist that pressure."
The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz says reporters may be rooting for a Democrat-run House because "divided government would produce what reporters like best: conflict... Even the mundane prospect of the Democrats being able to bring their preferred legislation to the floor -- though most bills might never make it past the president's veto pen -- would give journalists a new script. Divided government may or may not be good for the country, but it's great for the Fourth Estate."
Obviously there's a lot out there today. Among the better round-ups:
The Los Angeles Times leads its look at GOTV efforts with this question, "Which political force will prove stronger - the niche-marketing effort, led by GOP strategist Karl Rove and powered by computerized outreach methods, or the classic 'throw the bums out' mood of an electorate uneasy with the Iraq war and unhappy with one-party rule?"
USA Today looks at the huge cash infusions into key races by the campaign committees and outside groups. "Just since Friday, Republicans have put more than $2 million into Senate races in New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia, federal reports show. Democrats have spent $1.1 million for Senate candidates in Maryland, Montana, Tennessee and Virginia... Major players for Republicans include tax and abortion opponent groups, the American Medical Association and the National Rifle Association. Unions, environmentalists, backers of gay and abortion rights, and MoveOn.org are helping Democrats... Small donors are another growing force," contributing "47% of what parties have raised this year, up from 28% in 2002. The main reason is the rise of online giving."
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From NBC's Patrice Fletcher and Mike Viqueira
Democrat Sherrod Brown of Ohio, his party's challenger to GOP Sen. Mike DeWine, is having to move his election-night party from a Hyatt in Columbus to a public auditorium in Cleveland. Per Brown spokesperson Joanne Kuebler, the Columbus hotel isn't big enough to accommodate the crowd they're now anticipating, whereas the Cleveland auditorium holds about 2,000 people. Kuebler says Brown's campaign is hearing from "all kinds of people who've known him for years." A string of public polls have shown Brown with a healthy and consistent lead over DeWine, and Democrats still smarting from President Bush's victory-cinching Ohio victory in 2004 clearly are looking to celebrate.
Remember Abramoff-plagued GOP Rep. Bob Ney? He has formally resigned from Congress. This was a forgone conclusion -- the only question being exactly when he would do it. Ney was facing the threat of an expulsion vote in the House come November 14, when they're scheduled to reconvene, and many on both sides had assumed he was hanging on just to collect the extra few thousand dollars in pay.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
President Bush has a new riff in his rallying cry, accusing Democrats of not having an agenda to fight terrorism. Bush in Springfield, MO today: "So if you happen to bump into a Democrat candidate, you might want to ask this simple question: What's your plan? If they say they want to protect the homeland, but oppose the Patriot Act, ask them this question: What's your plan? If they say they want to uncover terrorist plots, but oppose listening in on terrorist conversations, ask them this question: What's your plan?... If they say they want to win the war on terror, but call for America to pull out from what al Qaeda says is the central front in this war, ask them this question: What's your plan?"
To which the audience finally responded, "What's your plan?"
It's true that Democrats have not proposed much by way of an agenda on fighting terrorism. According to House Democrats' "Six for '06" agenda released earlier this year, which is basically an outline of what they'd tackle in their first 100 legislative hours in the majority, they would: require the Iraqis to take responsibility for their country and begin a phased redeployment of US forces from Iraq in 2006; double the size of US special forces to destroy Osama bin Laden and terrorist networks like al Qaeda; and implement the September 11 commission's recommendations to secure America's borders and ports. (How they plan to get these items past a GOP-run Senate and signed into law remains to be seen.)
Despite Bush's efforts to call attention to this vague anti-terror agenda, polls show that the onus is still on him because of public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war. He showed no sign of seeing any irony of having thousands of people chanting to him, "What's your plan?"
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Four days left... President Bush's final campaign swing, now on day two, already seems marked by big and small awkward moments ranging from his flubbing the name of Shanksville, PA yesterday to a series of events in Ted Haggard's home state tomorrow.
Yesterday as Bush campaigned in Nevada, a software entrepreneur who is suing his former business partner issued a statement detailing influence-peddling charges against the former partner and Rep. Jim Gibbons, the GOP nominee for governor. Gibbons denies the claims. And tomorrow, Bush is scheduled to spend the day in Colorado, home base of White House advisor Haggard, who has resigned from his stewardship of the National Association of Evangelicals in the face of accusations that he paid for sex with a male prostitute. Indeed, Vice President Cheney is actually in Colorado today for a welcome-home rally with troops at Fort Carson and a rally in Colorado Springs, the seat of prominent Christian conservatives such as Haggard and Focus on the Family's James Dobson.
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Bush starts his day with rallies in Springfield and Joplin, MO, then heads to LeMars, IA for another one. He ends the day in Englewood, CO, positioning him for events there tomorrow (including the delivery of his radio address) and a rally in Greeley. The White House has provided a list of the candidates who are the focus of this presidential largesse in the final stretch. In Missouri and Iowa today: the state parties and Iowa gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle. In Colorado tomorrow: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave, In Nebraska and Kansas on Sunday: House candidate Adrian Smith of Nebraska and Rep. Jim Ryun of Kansas. In Florida, Arkansas, and Texas on Monday: Florida gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist and state Republicans; Arkansas gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson; and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Asked yesterday about Bush's final campaign swing of the cycle taking him to a series of states he won in 2004, White House spokesman Tony Fratto said, "We go where we think we can have the biggest impact in winning these seats... We're being very strategic in where we go and we think you're going to see those results on Tuesday." On who decided where to go in these final days, Fratto said many people were involved and the president also used 'his instincts.'" "The president decides his final schedule," Fratto said.
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NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that the Iraqi war documents were posted online in the first place because of pressure on the intelligence community from conservative lawmakers who said the experts weren't doing enough to prove that Saddam Hussein really had WMD. In a November 2005 letter to intel chief John Negroponte, the chairs of the House and Senate intelligence committees wrote, "...the sheer volume of materials that we have obtained is overwhelming our intelligence community's ability to properly categorize and translate the contents, analyze and review the information, verify authenticity, and report to users the knowledge generated. Many, if not most, of the literally millions of pages of documents are unclassified and could be worked by people who do not have security clearances." The letter also said there needed to be "safeguards" to prevent forgeries, Mitchell reports.
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The Washington Times says the Iraq war "is sapping Republican voter enthusiasm and undermining the party's candidates in races once thought safe." But prominent conservative Paul Weyrich says the war isn't "the only discouragement for some Republican voters... 'The same things said of the war could be said of profligate spending... Some of these senators and House members might withstand one or two big issues, but the when it gets to be several in addition to the war -- that is, corruption, immigration and spending -- then only the very safe members will be re-elected.'"
The Boston Globe looks at how the war is causing many conservative voters in the South to rethink their support for the GOP. "A scholar who studies the voting patterns of religious constituencies says that a combination of the war and a perceived lack of progress on social issues has led to a decline in evangelical support for the Republican Party, but that that support could be affected by last-minute get-out-the-vote campaigns."
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Nevada gubernatorial nominee and Rep. Jim Gibbons has asked the House Ethics Committee to weigh in on "whether he failed to report a Caribbean cruise that was paid for by a military contractor who is also a major donor to the congressman's campaign," the Wall Street Journal reports. "Mr. Gibbons sought the panel's advice after a page-one article in [the Journal] raised questions about his close ties to Warren Trepp... The Journal reported Wednesday that [Gibbons] opened doors in Washington for Mr. Trepp's eTreppid Technologies LLC, a software maker that won millions of dollars in classified contracts... It reported that Mr. Gibbons, who served on the Intelligence and Armed Services committees, helped the Reno, Nev., company secure federal contracts and in some cases helped direct federal money to the contracts."
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USA Today focuses on a potentially high number of provisional ballots needing to be cast on Tuesday, which could delay the vote count in some key races. "In 2004, the first year provisional ballots were used nationwide, about 1.9 million people cast them. About 1.23 million of those, or nearly 65%, were ruled to be in order. The number of provisional votes counted was about 1% of the 122 million votes cast for president."
The Washington Post writes up Democratic concerns about new voter ID laws discouraging minorities from voting. Indiana, where Democrats hope to knock off three Republican House members, has the toughest voter ID law in the country.
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MSNBC continues its wall-to-wall political coverage with a guest list including Tennessee Senate nominee Harold Ford (D), Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman (I), and Mark Foley replacement candidate Joe Negron (R).
The Washington Post is the latest to put an estimated price tag on campaign advertising this year, well over $2 billion, as it looks at some of the 600 new TV ads candidates aim to air in the final days of the cycle. The story says some Republicans are "trying to shift attention from Iraq and President Bush to local issues such as the environment, taxes and immigration."
USA Today takes the latest look at Democratic efforts to catch up to Republicans in microtargeting to get out the vote.
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From NBC's Huma Zaidi
According to a new round of Reuters/Zogby polls, Democrats are leading in six of the seven hottest Senate races heading into next week's midterm elections, a clear sign that they are within striking distance of netting the six seats they need to take back the Senate.
Democrats duking it out with Republican incumbents in Missouri, Virginia and Montana are tied in statistical dead heats while Democratic candidates in Maryland, New Jersey and Connecticut have leads outside the margin of error.
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leads Ned Lamont (D) by 12 points in Connecticut, and Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leads challenger Tom Kean, Jr. (R) by the same margin. In Maryland, Ben Cardin (D) has a five-point lead over Michael Steele (R).
The one piece of good news for Republicans in the poll is in Tennessee, where Bob Corker (R) leads Harold Ford (D) by 10 points.
From NBC's Pete Williams
The timing of today's Justice Department announcement of a multi-state fugitive sweep has raised some eyebrows, coming five days before the midterm elections. But officials insist there was no political motive. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales joined the US Marshals service in revealing that nearly 11,000 fugitives -- including almost 1,700 sex offenders -- were swept up last week in a 24 states. It was the third installment of the Marshals Service's "Operation Falcon," in which federal agents team up with state and local police in an intense effort to pick up fugitives.
The two earlier roundups, in 2005 and 2006, were conducted in the spring. And this one concentrated on mainly eastern states, where many competitive political races are hotly contested. But the Marshals Service says the timing of this year's operation was based on the budget and the weather. Knowing that money was earmarked in the budget for this operation, they wanted to launch it as soon as the fiscal year began in October, before it begins snowing. The operation, including the states to be targeted, was planned several months ago, the marshals say. In the past two years, they add, money for the operation was derived from existing programs. A Justice Department official says, moreover, that the Marshals Service decided the timing, including the date for the announcement, and that DOJ headquarters had no role in the scheduling of the operation or today's announcement.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Five days left… It might have gotten lost in the recent flap over John Kerry’s comments (which he finally apologized for yesterday afternoon), or in the constant back-and-forth over Iraq, or in the mountain of poll numbers we see everyday. But let’s be clear about what’s truly at stake on election day: control of the House. While Democrats’ ability to regain the Senate seems up in the air, analysts and party strategists believe they’re poised to win the lower chamber. And as NBC’s Mike Viqueira reminds us, when you’re talking about holding the majority in US House, you're talking about being in control of everything from how, when, and what is actually debated on the floor of the chamber, to what is served for lunch in the cafeteria.
"The job of the minority is to make a quorum and to draw its pay," said Speaker Thomas Reed in 1890, words that perfectly describe the sweeping hegemony of the majority party -- and emasculation of the minority -- that is as evident today as it was 116 years ago. The majority here controls every step of the process, and when you control the process, you control the substance.
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The Washington Post: "GOP officials have tried to make the elections not a referendum on President Bush but a choice between two parties with competing visions over taxes, terrorism and Iraq, but they have struggled to find a symbol for Democrats. Kerry's comments have allowed Republicans to make him again the face of his party and cast 2006 as a rerun of Bush vs. Kerry."
The New York Times says, “National leaders calculated that the comments would probably not affect the elections. But Mr. Kerry’s sudden center-stage appearance in the last days of the campaign revived grumblings about his putting his own political future ahead of the party’s.”
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CNBC's Patti Domm advises that chain stores report October sales today, and markets and investors are watching closely to see what the retail industry will tell us about the strength of the consumer and the willingness to spend. The markets are also looking beyond today's productivity and factory orders and are focusing on tomorrow's very important jobs and employment data.
After campaigning today in Montana and Nevada, Bush -- who has spent the past few months stumping for Republicans who either reside in the reddest of states or face uphill races -- makes two appearances tomorrow in Missouri, which features perhaps the most competitive Senate contest in the country. Then he heads to a rally for Jim Nussle (R), who’s engaged in an almost-equally competitive gubernatorial race. And on Saturday, the president heads back west to campaign for Colorado gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez (R) and vulnerable Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R).
If these next three days for Bush have one thing in common, it’s that on each day, he’s campaigning for a current GOP congressman running for governor -- Gibbons in Nevada, Nussle in Iowa, and Beauprez in Colorado -- who finds himself in a tougher-than-expected race. The reason (outside the allegations hovering over Gibbons): Serving in Congress has become an albatross, especially when its approval rating is as low at 16% in the NBC/WSJ poll. “The one thing people know about these guys is that they are members of Congress.” Stuart Rothenberg of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report tells First Read. “I think they have all been damaged by that.”
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The New York Times is the latest to write about how Republicans are peppering their ads with Nancy Pelosi’s image. But will it work? “‘It’s awful hard to make a boogeyman out of someone no one knows,’ said Ed Rollins, a Republican political consultant. ‘The reality is, no one is going to vote for a Republican congressman because they are afraid of Nancy Pelosi.’”
As First Read suggested yesterday, the Washington Times writes that Bush's hopes for immigration reform might fare better with a Democrat-run House.
Speaking of immigration, a group of supporters of comprehensive immigration reform (read: pro-guest worker) have created a Web site at immigration2006.org that will catalogue the won-loss records of guest-worker supporters and guest-worker opponents in the most competitive midterm races across the country.
After malfunctions and counting problems during the Maryland primaries made national headlines, the Washington Post front-pages concerns about problems that might still remain. (GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich, facing a tough re-election fight, has said he'll vote absentee because he doubts the system; Democrats have accused him of trying to spread skepticism about voting.)
Under an agreement reached yesterday, Ohio voters will not need to present ID to vote absentee, the Columbus Dispatch says, but they will need to show it at the polls on election day. “Lawyers for Attorney General Jim Petro and groups that had sued to block the ID requirement negotiated for about 13 hours yesterday before reaching a deal approved by U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley. The agreement takes the dispute out of the courts.”
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Another estimate of the price tag for these midterms: $3.1 billion in advertising and direct mail. "The most noticeable change is in gubernatorial races, where spending will exceed $1 billion for the first time," says USA Today. "With 36 contests, many considered close, campaigns are on pace to spend $1.1 billion - up 757% vs. 2004, when there were just 11 races. House candidates will spend $744 million, up 38%, while Senate contenders are spending $705 million, up 40%."
The New York Times writes that the GOP Senate campaign committee is pouring nearly $1 million into Maryland and $800,000 into Michigan, while Democrats announced that they will be buying air time in Arizona. Democratic Senate campaign committee chairman Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, holds a pen-and-pad press briefing to talk about expanding the Senate playing field.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
Sen. John Kerry's office just released this statement from the senator: "As a combat veteran, I want to make it clear to anyone in uniform and to their loved ones: my poorly stated joke at a rally was not about, and never intended to refer to any troop. I sincerely regret that my words were misinterpreted to wrongly imply anything negative about those in uniform, and I personally apologize to any service member, family member, or American who was offended."
Kerry adds, "It is clear the Republican Party would rather talk about anything but their failed security policy. I don’t want my verbal slip to be a diversion from the real issues. I will continue to fight for a change of course to provide real security for our country, and a winning strategy for our troops."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Kelly O'Donnell
It's official: John Kerry's controversial (and arguably overblown) remarks have become a second-day news story. Once again, the White House has released advance excerpts of a speech -- this time Vice President Cheney's -- that slam Kerry for suggesting that US soldiers are in Iraq because they didn't study hard in school; Kerry says he was joking that this country is in Iraq because Bush -- not US troops -- didn't study hard. "Of course, now Senator Kerry says he was just making a joke, and he botched it up," Cheney is expected to say today. "I guess we didn't get the nuance. He was for the joke before he was against it. As a leading Democratic senator, John Kerry needs to learn that the men and women serving in Iraq aren't there because they didn't study hard or do their homework."
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also commented on Kerry's remarks during an interview with a conservative radio host. "I just can't imagine why anyone would say something like that," Rumsfeld said. "The young men and women who serve in the armed forces of the United States are amazing, and indeed, they're inspirational." Strikingly, the Kerry flap barely came up in President Bush's interview today with Rush Limbaugh, but he did say: "Anybody who is in a position to serve this country ought to understand the consequences of words. And our troops deserve the full support of people in government."
Democrats -- including those who might run against Kerry for president in 2008 -- also have chimed in. Hillary Clinton called Kerry's remarks "inappropriate." And John Edwards talked about his former runningmate as he was voting early today in North Carolina. Per Edwards' aides, the former senator said that Kerry made a mistake, Kerry said he made a mistake, and that was that.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Six days left... Few things galvanize the Bush White House and GOP -- and get Democratic lawmakers cringing -- as quickly and uniformly as an inartful remark about Iraq uttered by Sen. John Kerry (D). But as the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows, when it comes to Iraq, Republicans are standing on ground that is far less solid than it was in 2004.
Kerry's initial comment came in a joking riff at the top of a speech in Los Angeles on Monday, sandwiched in between a crack about President Bush and one about special prosecutors. "You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you - you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq." Kerry and associates say the remark was "a botched joke" about the President and his people, not about the troops, and that the White House is now distorting the remark for political gain. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that per a source close to Kerry, he was making "a tough and honest joke" about Bush and it came out slightly mangled.
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In prepared remarks provided to the press, Kerry intended to say: "'Do you know where you end up if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy?... You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq. Just ask President Bush.'"
“In attacking Mr. Kerry and defending the war," the New York Times says, "the White House clearly made the calculation that achieving what has been its main strategic goal this year - firing up a dispirited conservative base - would outweigh any risk that might come in spotlighting a war that Republican Party officials said had become a huge burden for its candidates.”
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USA Today reminds us that the Kerry "dust-up came a day after Rep. Charles Rangel called Vice President Dick Cheney 'a son of a bitch' for saying the New York Democrat doesn't know how the economy works." Rangel is in line to become Ways and Means chair if Democrats retake the House. "A year ago, Cheney said Rangel might be 'losing it' after the New York Democrat compared Bush to Bull Connor, the segregationist Alabama official who resisted civil rights in the 1960s. Rangel, a Korean War veteran, has also accused Cheney of 'sending other people's kids to war'... Rangel said he tends not to deal with Cheney on policy issues and prefers to work on fiscal matters with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whom he has praised."
"...[T]he cost of several big-ticket middle-class basics - housing, health care premiums, energy, college tuition - have vastly outstripped the overall inflation rate in the past two decades," says USA Today in a look at how inflation is affecting the middle class. "Those rising prices, combined with flat wages, mean that the typical middle-class life - a house, college for the kids, a secure retirement - is fading for many."
NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that when asked about Bush's light public schedule today, aides said it's because Bush will be traveling for the next six days and needs to deal with regular business. The White House has released the President's schedule for the rest of the week: rallies in Billings, MT and Elko, NV on Thursday; Springfield and Joplin, MO and LeMars, IA on Friday; and in Greeley, CO on Saturday.
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Bloomberg says House Republican strategists "are pouring money into Connecticut and Florida to protect endangered House members while scaling back in Ohio and Pennsylvania," where nine seats are in play, but where candidates "have suffered in the financial chess match."
House Chief Deputy Whip Eric Cantor (R) tells Roll Call in an interview that "he is advocating a postponement of the scheduled Nov. 15 GOP leadership elections until after the House ethics committee releases its report on its investigation into former Rep. Mark Foley’s (R-Fla.) behavior with House pages."
The Hill reports that "several rank-and-file House Republicans... already are arguing in favor of a post-Election Day leadership shake-up."
House Democrats borrow a page from the Bush playbook with a "New Direction Radio Day" today, during which Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and others will do GOTV radio interviews on more than 55 shows around the country, per a Pelosi spokesperson. Some of the radio programs have progressive, national and regional African-American, and national and regional Hispanic audiences. Others are in key markets such as Portland, Denver, Miami/West Palm Beach, and Buffalo/Albany.
Bloomberg looks at some of the Democratic candidates whose more conservative positions may help them win, but may complicate the party's efforts to pursue a more liberal agenda if they win the majority.
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Per Factcheck.org, 91% of all Republican ads and 81% of all Democratic ads have been negative this election cycle.
GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s lead in CALIFORNIA continues to grow, the Sacramento Bee notes. Per a new Field Poll, he’s leading Phil Angelides (D) by 49%-33%, “the widest margin in two decades for a California gubernatorial front-runner in the days before a general election.”
NBC's Tim Russert moderates a FLORIDA Senate debate which will air live tonight on MSNBC. "Everyone has a favorite Katherine Harris story," writes the Miami Herald, which also runs a more favorable profile of her opponent, Sen. Bill Nelson (D).
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The
New York Times covers Sen. Barack Obama barnstorming for Democrats across the country, and gets an interesting response to a question about whether he has enough experience if he runs for president. He replied that judgment is more important than experience: “‘It would be nice to think the more experience we get, the better our judgment is. But I don’t think that’s the case. I mean, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld have an awful lot of experience, and yet have engineered what I think is one of the biggest foreign policy failures in our recent history.’”
