May 2007 - Posts
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The worldviews of Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are clearly very different. Romney harks back to some of the policies of Ronald Reagan, particularly regarding increased defense spending. Obama, meanwhile stresses diplomacy and exudes confidence in his own potential powers of persuasion with world leaders. Though it remains to be seen how Obama would react if his diplomacy is rebuffed and he doesn’t quite get what he wants from world leaders.
One clear difference between Obama’s and Romney’s essays: the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Obama mentions it quite high up and vows a “patient” and “personal commitment” to the process should he be elected president. Romney, however, never specifically mentions it. Instead Romney writes: “Yet the jihad is much broader than any one nation, or even several nations. It is broader than the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, or that between the Israelis and the Palestinians.”
Romney maintains the Republican line with regard to some facets of his energy independence policy, specifically on his support for drilling in ANWR, and with his criticism of the United Nations. But he is not an isolationist and not necessarily a unilateralist.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Dodd's campaign just announced that it will be launching its third TV ad, which will run in Iowa and New Hampshire -- states that this weekend will be hosting an '08 awards dinner and a presidential debate, respectively. The subject of the ad: global warming.
Says an announcer, "All the Earth's creatures are threatened by global warming. One candidate for president is doing something to stop it: Chris Dodd. He's the only one with an energy plan that has a courageous corporate carbon tax to transform American industry. It's the plan Al Gore and Bill Bradley call 'creative,' 'honest and bold.'"
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
As promised. here are some key excerpts in Obama's just-published article in Foreign Affairs.
On Iraq:
“We must first bring the Iraq war to a responsible end and refocus our attention on the broader Middle East... The best chance we have to leave Iraq a better place is to pressure these warring parties to find a lasting political solution. And the only effective way to apply this pressure is to begin a phased withdrawal of U.S. forces, with the goal of removing all combat brigades from Iraq by March 31, 2008... This redeployment could be temporarily suspended if the Iraqi government meets the security, political, and economic benchmarks to which it has committed.”
“[W]e must launch a comprehensive regional and international diplomatic initiative to help broker an end to the civil war in Iraq... To gain credibility in this effort, we must make clear that we seek no permanent bases in Iraq. We should leave behind only a minimal over-the-horizon military force in the region."
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict:
“Changing the dynamic in Iraq will allow us to focus our attention and influence on resolving the festering conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians... Our starting point must always be a clear and strong commitment to the security of Israel... [W]e must strive to secure a lasting settlement of the conflict... Sustained American leadership for peace and security will require patient effort and the personal commitment of the president of the United States.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Mark Murray
During a press conference in Los Angeles yesterday, Clinton responded to the recent news alleging that she most likely did not read the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq before voting to authorize the war. Said Clinton: “We were thoroughly briefed by the people who wrote that estimate, by the people who supervised its writing, on numerous occasions. And I believe that I received all of the information that was necessary for me to reach a judgment.”
She went on to repeat her now-familiar appeal to looking to the present and stressing the importance of convincing President Bush and congressional Republicans to begin extricating US troops from Iraq.
But Clinton's response raises more questions: If the vote was the "hardest decision" she has ever made, was a briefing by the people who wrote the estimate sufficient to reach that decision? And if then-Sen. Bob Graham (D) said he decided to vote against the war authorization because he had read the entire NIE report, as Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. write in the New York Times magazine, then did she really have all the information she needed to reach a judgment?
From NBC's Mark MurrayWe missed this earlier, but the dean of Iowa political journalists -- the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen -- has a
column today noting
Biden's "profile in courage" for being the sole Senate Democratic presidential hopeful to vote FOR the Iraq supplemental. "That's not a very popular thing to do in a party where anti-war passions run high. Biden was already struggling to break into the top tier of candidates, and his vote could cost him dearly with some on caucus night... Biden said during a meeting with Des Moines Register reporters and editors on Tuesday that he voted for the funding bill largely because it contained funding for new armored vehicles that will better resist roadside bombs... 'I find it absolutely unconscionable that I would delay, to make a point, a week to two to a month, the construction of these vehicles,' he said."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Both Mitt Romney and Barack Obama have written pieces in the July/August issue of Foreign Affairs, outlining their visions on foreign policy. Here are some excerpts from Romney's essay; we'll post Obama's later today.
Romney on Iraq:
“All Americans want U.S. troops to come home as soon as possible. But walking away now or dividing Iraq up into parts and walking away later would present grave risks to the United States and the world…. Many still fail to comprehend the extent of the threat posed by radical Islam….”
On defense spending:
“[O]ur investment in the military as a percentage of GDP remain lower than at any time in major conflict since World War II... [W]e need to increase our investment in national defense. This means adding at least 100,000 troops and making a long-overdue investment in equipment, armament, weapons systems, and strategic defense….[W]e are going to need at least an additional $30-$40 billion annually over the next several years... The next president should commit to spending a minimum of four percent of GDP on national defense.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark MurrayOn Monday, the day before the next GOP presidential debate,
McCain will deliver an address on immigration in Coral Gables, FL, his campaign just announced. Immigration, of course, has become a prickly issue for the senator as many GOP conservatives -- and some of his GOP rivals -- have lashed out against the Senate compromise that McCain supports.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Nice Timing: Whether or not you think Fred Thompson has been wise to wait this long to dive into the ’08 pool, you have to admit his folks picked a good time to leak the news about his upcoming “testing the waters” committee. With Congress on its Memorial Day recess, Thompson dominates today’s newspaper headlines and the TV morning shows. Want evidence? Just check out today’s “OH-EIGHT (R)” section.
*** L.A.’s Real Star: Speaking of what’s in the news, our California spies tell us that Clinton's endorsement event yesterday with Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa was overshadowed in the local media (i.e. TV) by Kobe Bryant -- whose "I want to be traded, no, wait, I don't want to be traded" led the local news. Check out today's Los Angeles Times; Kobe trumps Clinton there, too.
*** The Beginning Of A Beautiful Rivalry: Campaigning in California yesterday, Giuliani attacked Clinton on taxes. And today in New York, per the Daily News, he picks up an endorsement from Bill Clinton’s former FBI director Louis Freeh, who long ago dropped all pretences of being a Clinton loyalist. Also, look for Rudy to play up his electability now that Thompson is in the race, particularly when Rudy's campaigning (and raising money) in the so-called "blue" states. Primary? What primary?
*** An Uptick For Gore? A new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania voters is out, and it has Giuliani leading both Clinton and Obama in general election match-ups. The only Democrat Giuliani trails? Al Gore. This is the first time we've seen evidence anywhere that Gore runs better than either Clinton or Obama against the leading Republican. Is this the start of a trend? A result of Gore’s book tour? We'll let you know.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden, still in Iowa, attends a breakfast with Benton County Democrats; Clinton speaks to Silicon Valley leaders in California; Edwards holds a press conference to unveil his plan to fight rising gas prices and then attends a low-dollar fundraiser in San Jose, CA; McCain raises money in Mississippi; Obama, fresh off announcing his health-care plan, holds a health-care rally in Reno, NV; and Romney campaigns throughout Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 18 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 25 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 71 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 95 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 141 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 158 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 169 days
Countdown to Iowa: 227 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 249 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 522 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 599 days
BROWNBACK: The Kansas senator uses the New York Times op-ed page to explain why he was one of three candidates to raise his hand during the first GOP debate to announce that he does not believe in evolution. "The premise behind the question seems to be that if one does not unhesitatingly assert belief in evolution, then one must necessarily believe that God created the world and everything in it in six 24-hour days. But limiting this question to a stark choice between evolution and creationism does a disservice to the complexity of the interaction between science, faith and reason… If belief in evolution means simply assenting to microevolution, small changes over time within a species, I am happy to say, as I have in the past, that I believe it to be true. If, on the other hand, it means assenting to an exclusively materialistic, deterministic vision of the world that holds no place for a guiding intelligence, then I reject it.”
GIULIANI: The New York Sun: “In a potential preview of next fall's presidential contest, Mr. Giuliani, who is seen as the front-runner for the Republican nomination, directly attacked the leading Democratic candidate, Mrs. Clinton, over a speech she gave Tuesday in New Hampshire bemoaning the return of ‘robber barons’ and promising to pursue ‘shared prosperity’ by increasing taxes on Americans making more than $200,000 a year. ‘This would be an astounding, staggering tax increase,’ Mr. Giuliani told reporters yesterday after a visit to a restaurant on the edge of California's Silicon Valley.”
The New York Daily News notes that Giuliani will today pick up an endorsement from former Bill Clinton FBI director Louis Freeh, who has gone from a one-time Clinton advocate to a sharp critic.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Campaign manager Luis Navarro issued this statement regarding the pressure MoveOn is putting on the campaign to drop out of the FOX/Congressional Black Caucus debate. “We applaud Moveon.org’s efforts to change the President’s policies in Iraq. It is unfortunate that Moveon.org is more concerned that candidates not attend a debate sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus, than they are about the fact that leading candidates are ducking this debate as well as the Iraq-only debate sponsored by Johns Hopkins and the Financial Times.”
Speaking of, the AP reports that Dodd and Richardson will skip the Fox Democratic debate. Clinton, Obama and Edwards have already said they will bypass the event.
CLINTON: The Los Angeles Times covered the event, but check out what story got more play on the front page -- Kobe or Clinton? It was Kobe.
In Nevada yesterday, Clinton was asked some interesting questions about her own wealth. “‘I know a lot of rich people. My husband and I never had any money ... now all (of a) ... sudden we're rich,' Clinton said. 'I have nothing against rich people. ... but what made America great is the American middle class.’”
CONTINUED >>
The new Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania has Giuliani leading both Clinton and Obama in general election match-ups. Giuliani also has a double-digit lead in the GOP primary. And Clinton has a similar lead in the Dem primary, with Gore second, over Obama.
The Boston Globe says that Democrats are drawing bigger crowds in New Hampshire than Republicans, leading some GOP officials to take it as a sign of “a lack of enthusiasm” with the GOP field.
A spokesman for South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) called First Read yesterday to say that the governor is leaning against a bill the Legislature is considering that would have the state help finance South Carolina’s GOP and Democratic primaries. Per the spokesman, Sanford has problems with using public funds to assist the state political parties, which run the South Carolina primaries.
Ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former RNC chief Ken Mehlman pen a Wall Street Journal op-ed in support of the Senate immigration bill. “Both of us have spent much of our professional lives working to help build the Republican Party. We believe this legislation will be good for the GOP. Hispanic Americans are natural Republicans. Many tend to be pro-life, pro-military and pro-small business… The immigration reform before Congress is far from perfect; it's a compromise after all. But, on balance, we are convinced that this legislation is the right choice. It represents progress in making America safer and stronger; progress in making our economy more competitive and flexible; progress in reinforcing the rule of law and progress in the important work of national unity. Doing nothing is not an option.”
There is now a second investigation taking place regarding the Justice Department’s hiring practices, the
Boston Globe says. This probe focuses on whether the Bush Administration "illegally used a political litmus test when vetting candidates for non-partisan positions."
From NBC's Carrie DannIn the wake of Obama's big policy pitch yesterday, the worlds of print and pixel are crowded with side-by-side comparisons of the Democratic front-runners' plans for universal health care reform. It's certainly worthwhile to parse the details of the three plans -- their costs, their options, and their requirements. But there's something to be said for zooming out from the play-by-play to look at how each of the heavy hitters choose to present their big policy plans. And there's even a lot to learn by just hitting the "mute" button (and not for the reasons that their GOP rivals might enthusiastically suggest).
Since hitting the trail in earnest, each of the top three Democratic candidates have touted rollouts on health care, the economy, and a handful of other sweeping topics. Each has addressed a tough topic on friendly turf. (
Obama talked foreign policy in hometown Chicago;
Clinton talked about health-care costs a stone's throw away from the Capitol Dome; and Southerner
Edwards unveiled his big health-care plan in Charleston, SC.) Other than the locale, a catchy phrase -- preferably two words -- is a key component to the "major policy address." Compare Obama's Rockwellian "American Moment" to Clinton's risky "Shared Prosperity," which set GOP blogs ablaze yesterday with allusions to Red China.
Unsurprisingly, the meticulous Clinton outlines her plans like an infomercial ad wizard; her economic plan was nine steps, and her talk about health care was seven. And it's worth noting that Clinton and Obama tend to stay entrenched behind podiums for the heavy lifting, while Edwards broke the mold by introducing his health-care plan in a town-hall format and by fielding questions after his health-care rollout.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
In the upcoming New York Times magazine, the authors of the new biography of Hillary Clinton -- former and current New York Times investigative reporters Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. -- have written an article, adapted from their book, on Hillary's 2002 war authorization vote. The piece is already out, and so you don't have to read the entire 18-page article, here's what caught our eyes or what we think is new:
-- "Of course, Clinton was tough. And she was experienced. But according to aides and strategists, her insecurity about her public image and her nascent national-security credentials made it difficult, if not impossible, for her to vote no” on the Iraq war authorization.
-- "Bill Clinton served as her main counsel on the Iraq war vote, longtime associates of theirs told us.”
-- As the Washington Post noted earlier from the Gerth-Van Natta book, Clinton might not have read the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate before she cast her vote. "The question of whether Clinton took the time to read the N.I.E. report is critically important. Indeed, one of Clinton’s Democratic colleagues, Bob Graham, the Florida senator who was then the chairman of the intelligence committee, said he voted against the resolution on the war, in part, because he had read the complete N.I.E. report. Graham said he found that it did not persuade him that Iraq possessed W.M.D. As a result, he listened to Bush’s claims more skeptically. ‘I was able to apply caveat emptor,’ Graham, who has since left the Senate, observed in 2005. He added regretfully, ‘Most of my colleagues could not.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we wrote earlier today, McCain could be the biggest loser with Fred Thompson establishing a "testing the waters" committee, because he will begin gobbling up GOP money that McCain needs for a strong 2nd quarter fundraising performance. But NBC/WSJ pollster Neil Newhouse (R) tells First Read that Thompson pulls more from Giuliani -- at least in the polls.
In the April NBC/WSJ poll, Giuliani led McCain among GOP voters, 39%-24%, with Romney at 12%. But with Thompson on the ballot, Giuliani was at 33%, McCain at 22%, Thompson at 17%, and Romney at 12%.
Moreover, among GOP voters who said they were "dissatisfied" with the GOP field were initially voting for Giuliani by 29%-25%-11% over McCain and Romney. But on the second ballot, those who said they were "dissatisfied" with the field had Thompson out in front 29%-22%-20%-10% over Giuliani, McCain, and Romney.
Says Newhouse: "So, it appears Fred pulls more from Rudy ... whose support has been buttressed by GOP voters who are not all that satisfied with the GOP field."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Tied to the endorsement Clinton received today from Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, campaign strategist Mark Penn and pollster Sergio Bendixen have released a memo -- in both English and Spanish -- touting her strength among Hispanic voters in key February 5 states, and listing key Hispanic aides and endorsements she has received.
But we have a couple of questions: What happens to this support for Clinton if Richardson catches fire?
And is this a subtle way of the campaign acknowledging that they will end up on the short end of the black vote stick -- and need another constituency to put together a winning post-South Carolina coalition?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Enter Number Eleven? Fred Thompson makes it (more) official. According to a campaign source, Thompson will file his FEC papers officially on Monday June 4. In FEC parlance, Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" committee, a technical term that allows Thompson to forgo filing a detailed report on June 30 -- though once he's an official candidate, he'll have to file retroactively. The June 4 filing will be coordinated with a first-day fundraising blitz with 100-plus "First Day Founders" raising a significant one day sum in order to send a we're-in-the-first-tier message. The campaign tells us the "first day" blitz totals they report will be "cash" actually raised, not pledges. The source didn't dispute the notion that the one-day goal would be north of seven figures.
*** His Advantages: If there was ever a time for GOP candidate to come out of nowhere and compete for the nomination, it's now. According to the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, just 53% of Republicans are satisfied with their presidential choices (compared with 78% of Democrats who say they are). In addition, as Business Week reported, there is plenty of uncommitted GOP Ranger/Pioneer money out there for Thompson to gobble up (many of whom were on a conference call yesterday with Thompson). And what's not to like about a plainspoken Southerner who happens to be famous and who hasn't had ties to Washington or the Iraq war since he left Congress in 2002?
*** His Disadvantages: But how does he make up on lost time in building the same kind of infrastructure that McCain and Romney have built in the early primary states? (Frist and Allen staffer refugees can account for some of the staff deficit but not all.) On the issues, how is he any different than the front-runners? (A recent Washington Post story said his record was virtually identical to McCain's.) And is he attracting GOPers' attention because who he isn't -- rather than who he is? What, in short, makes him any different than Wes Clark was in 2003-4, sans the military medals?
*** Should McCain Worry? The timing of Thompson's entrance is not good for any of the front-runners who are all trying to make a big financial splash this final month of the 2nd quarter. However, the candidate who could be hurt the most is McCain, who has put the most pressure on himself to financially perform after a subpar 1st quarter.
*** A Different Standard? Some of Obama’s rivals regularly complain that he’s held to a different standard when it comes to his policy proposals. The subhead in today’s LA Times on Obama’s health-care plan shows their efforts might be paying off: "The Democratic hopeful's proposal lacks specifics but would cut costs while expanding coverage to everyone." But the paper’s lead shows those same rivals that maybe Obama does have a lower bar: "Obama on Tuesday offered an ambitious plan to curb healthcare costs and expand insurance coverage, in the latest example of Democratic presidential candidates honing strategies to achieve coverage for all."
*** Punch, Counterpunch: Bush yesterday took a shot at conservative critics who call the Senate immigration plan “amnesty.” But check out the cold reception it received. Conservative Paul Weyrich tells the Washington Times that “there are legitimate reasons to oppose this legislation, and I don't think that it behooves the president to call people names or make accusations against them if they disagree with him." More Weyrich: "He is angering people beyond belief to the point that the Republican Party is going to split in two, thanks to him. If this bill passes, the Republicans will not recover from it.”
*** On The Trail: Biden continues to campaign in Iowa; Clinton meets with culinary workers in Las Vegas and then holds a town hall there; Edwards visits with Google employees in Mountain View, CA; Giuliani meets with voters in Burlingame, CA; McCain fundraises in Arizona; and Romney spends his day in Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 26 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 72 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 96 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 142 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 159 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 170 days
Countdown to Iowa: 228 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 250 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 523 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 600 days
The New York Times interviews moderate Republican voters in the districts represented by some of the 11 GOP congressmen who met privately with Bush about the war. And those interviews “suggest that more Republican voters are opposing the war, and that independents who might have voted Republican are moving toward supporting a Democrat.”
Check out this Joe Biden comment to the Des Moines Register about the war supplemental -- it's something the eventual GOP nominee might resurrect against Obama and Clinton should one of them end up the eventual nominee. “‘As long as there are troops who are in a position where, if we don’t fund them they are going to be hurt, I’m not going to cut off funding,’ Biden said during a meeting with Des Moines Register editors and reporters. ‘That’s what the other candidates said too, but they changed their mind.’” Recall that Biden was the only 2008 Democratic presidential candidate serving in the Senate to vote for the supplemental.
A US embassy spokesman told NBC News that Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I) arrived in Baghdad Wednesday morning and has met with US Embassy officials and Iraqi officials.
The New York Times writes up Bush’s immigration speech yesterday in Georgia this way: “President Bush took on parts of his conservative base on Tuesday by accusing opponents of his proposed immigration measure of fear-mongering to defeat its passage in Congress. ‘If you want to scare the American people, what you say is the bill’s an amnesty bill,’ Mr. Bush said… ‘That’s empty political rhetoric trying to frighten our citizens.’” More: It was a rare case of the president’s taking on the coalition that helped him win and keep the Oval Office, the same conservative radio hosts, bloggers, writers and members of Congress who contributed significantly to the defeat of immigration measures last year.”
The Washington Post: "But conservatives bristled at his remarks. ‘I don't think name-calling does any good at this point,’ said David A. Keene, chairman of the American Conservative Union. ‘What they've done from the very beginning is say, “This is the way we want it done, and anyone who disagrees with us is outside the mainstream.” . . . It's been badly handled. They'll be lucky, given the attitudes in the country, to come up with anything.’”
More GOP complaints, per the Washington Times: “‘That's hurtful language,’ said Sen. Jeff Sessions, Alabama Republican. ‘If the bill did what they promised it was going to do, I'd support it. I'm for comprehensive reform, but it has to serve the national interests, not political interest. I don't think it's courage to support this flawed bill. I think sometimes it takes a bit of courage to resist this kind of short-term reform, so we can create a system that can actually work,’ Mr. Sessions said. Rep. Brian P. Bilbray, California Republican and chairman of the Immigration Reform Caucus, took issue with Mr. Bush's assertion that critics are objecting to a ‘narrow slice’ of the bill. ‘Amnesty for 12-20 million illegal immigrants isn't a 'narrow slice' ... it's the whole darn pie,’ Mr. Bilbray said.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: In advance of her trip out west this week -- including a stop in Nevada) -- the Clinton campaign rolled out a series of endorsements, including ex-NV Gov. Bob Miller…
… And also Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who endorses Clinton today in LA. This nod is a big deal in this sense: He didn't go with either Richardson or Obama. Many of these endorsements are more important to Clinton because they are staying on the establishment reservation rather than flirting with one of her challengers.
The New York Times says that with the Villaraigosa endorsement, “Clinton has outflanked her Democratic presidential rivals — including Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, the first Hispanic to seek the party’s nomination — in a crucial primary state with a large number of Hispanic voters and Democratic convention delegates.” More: In a telephone interview yesterday, Mr. Villaraigosa described a lengthy courtship by both Clintons, starting with a phone call from Mrs. Clinton on the January morning when she announced her presidential candidacy.”
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: The New York Times follows up on Gingrich’s critical comments to the New Yorker about the GOP and Karl Rove. He is quoted in The New Yorker as suggesting that a Republican will win the White House by running against Mr. Bush as Nicolas Sarkozy won the presidency in France by running against his fellow party member Jacques Chirac, in whose cabinet he had served.”
GIULIANI: David Boaz of the Cato Institute criticizes Giuliani in a New York Daily News op-ed, saying that he finds support for Giuliani among “libertarian-leaning Republicans” surprising. Boaz adds that, as mayor, Giuliani’s “prosecutorial personality sometimes threatened personal freedoms,” citing the Giuliani’s treatment of minorities and the shooting of Amadou Diallo.
The New York Post reports on Giuliani’s birthday fundraising yesterday. The former New York mayor turned 63 yesterday and celebrated it, in part, by hitting four fundraisers in four New York boroughs.
CONTINUED >>
Tsunami Tuesday continues to expand. Both Alaska and Georgia
have moved up their contests to February 5.
Realistically, the Democrats' only shot at winning a Senate seat in Alaska is for GOP Sen. Ted Stevens to retire. Could
this story about the FBI investigating a remodeling project on Stevens' home be the type of thing that forces Stevens to make that move? Maybe. Here's some detail on the inquiry. "The wide-ranging federal inquiry surfaced in August when agents raided six legislative offices, including those of then-Senate President Ben Stevens, one of Ted Stevens' sons. The FBI said at the time that it also had executed a search warrant in Girdwood, among other places, although the location of that search has never been officially disclosed."
From WHO-TV's Dave Price
Illinois Senator Barack Obama, a Democratic candidate for President, chose the University of Iowa Hospital in Iowa City to unveil his plan to make sure all Americans have health care. Pledging universal health care has been one of the most-spoken promises from some of the Democrats during their stops in Iowa. During his speech, Obama said, "I will sign a universal health care plan into law by the end of my first term in office." But after his speech today, Obama told me his plan really isn't "universal." He said it's "virtually universal."
His plan doesn't mandate coverage, except for children. Uninsured adults are encouraged to participate, so are small businesses. But no one is forced to participate. Obama says people will want to take part in this, though. He believes people will sign up for the plan, since coverage will be far cheaper. And businesses, he says, when it comes down to it, want to be able to offer health insurance. They just haven't been able to afford it in the past.
Obama told me rolling back President George W. Bush's tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans will provide most of the money to make his plan work. The rest of the savings will come from switching to electronic record-keeping (although, there are obvious start up costs for that), as well as reduced bills for emergency room visits, because people, in theory, would take better care of themselves since they have access to health care.
The feds would also pick up the cost of the most expensive illnesses and conditions. That will lower annual premiums overall for families, Obama said, by up to $2,500.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Ok, so I've only been able to share my inbox and scattering political thoughts on a weekly basis instead of daily. I swear, I'll do this more often. In the meantime, here are some remainders from the weekend both from the internet and my head:
-- The Future Of The GOP: The New Yorker's Goldberg, in his "letter from Washington" examines the problems facing the GOP electorally in '08 and beyond. Three distinct voices stick out in the piece. First, there's Karl Rove, who is still unfailingly optimistic about the fact that there is a still a center-right majority in the country. Two growth areas he points to demographically include what he believes is an amazing growth in home-computer-based businesses (he claims 700,000 people make their primary livings off of EBAY) and then the yearn for spirtuality. "So the power of the computer has made it possible for people to gain greater control over their lives. ... If you look at the traditional mainstream denominations, they're flat, but what's growing inside those denominations, and what's growing outside those denominations, is churches that are filling this spirtual need, that are replacing sterility with something bibrant, something that speaks to the heart of the individual."
-- Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is the second loudest voice in the piece and takes a direct shot at Rove by calling the '04 campaign "manically dumb": "All he proved was that the anti-Kerry vote was bigger than the anti-Bush vote. The Bush people deliberately could not bring themselves to wage a campaign of choice" (i.e. on ideology or ideas). He then compared Bush to Jimmy Carter on the compentency issue.
-- What If God Talked To Tom DeLay? Finally, the third intriguing voice that sticks out in the piece is Tom DeLay, who is very pessimistic about '08: "We don't have a good shot at winning 2008. I'm not saying we don't have a shot, but it's not good." But the real kicker with DeLay is this money quote: "God has spoken to me. I listen to God and what I've heard is that I'm supposed to devote myself to rebuilding the conservative base of the Republican Party."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
On what should be a happy day of fundraising in the four boroughs of New York City (all except Manhattan) for Rudy Giuliani's 63rd birthday, a few protestors ruined his first event, a review of the videotape shows. At City Island's Sea Shore Restaurant in the Bronx, a young woman named Sabrina approached the Mayor with a prepared question, reading it word for word off of a notepad. "You reported to Peter Jennings on 9/11 that the World Trade Center towers were going to collapse. No steel structure in history has ever collapsed due to fire. How come the people in the buildings weren't notified and who else knew about this? How do you sleep at night?"
Giuliani started to reply but was interrupted by Luke Rudkowski, a man recording the entire exchange on a video camera. Matthew Lepaceak, who stood on the other side of Giuliani, joined in. "But you said on ABC video with Peter Jennings in an interview that you were aware the towers were going to collapse in advance. Who told you the towers were going to collapse in advance, sir? And I also would like to know who else you told." During this time, Giuliani had an incredulous look on his face, completely caught off guard. The statement they were referring to is from a phoner Giuliani had with Jennings. "We set up headquarters at 75 Barclay Street which was right there with the police commissioner and the fire commissioner, the head of emergency management, and we were operating out of there when we were told the World Traded Center was going to collapse."
After being interrupted again, Giuliani responded with an explanation. "Our understanding was that over a long period of time, the way other buildings collapse, the towers could collapse. Meaning over a seven-, eight-, nine-, ten-hour period. No one that I knew of had any idea that they would implode. That was a complete surprise." He then walked into the diner for the breakfast fundraiser. Giuliani supporters clapped loudly to drown out the protestors' questions.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie DannUnder the newly-minted slogan "Shared Prosperity,"
Clinton outlined a nine-point economic overhaul plan this morning that was rife with barbs at the Bush Administration and big business. "Over the past six years," she chided, "it's as though we've gone back to the era of the robber barons." Clinton's plan -- delivered this morning in primary state New Hampshire -- targets ballooning CEO pay, Bush's tax cuts, excessive outsourcing, and "corporate welfare" as the culprits behind income inequality. Striking the tone of an Econ 101 professor at times, she described current trends in global business as "trickle-down economics, but without the trickle."
In her address, Clinton pointed to the individual pages of her policy playbook as solutions to America's economic problems. She proposed that drains on the high-education workforce could be eased by her plan for universal pre-K; sluggishness in social mobility for the middle class could be fought via her support for pro-union legislation; and unemployment could be stemmed by a bump in new jobs created under a Clinton energy plan. Frequently highlighting her policy's "progressiveness," Clinton was unabashed about the breadth of her proposed overhauls. "So many people I talk to want to hit the restart button on the 21st Century and redo it the right way," she said, "And I agree with them."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Over the Memorial Day weekend, the New York Times wrote about the fact that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have all decided to skip the FOX/Congressional Black Caucus presidential debate -- because, at least according to Edwards, the network isn't fair and balanced to Democrats. The article added that Biden was in, Richardson is undecided, and Dodd and Kucinich aides didn't return phone calls.
Late last night, however, Kucinich's campaign released a statement saying he would participate -- which probably isn't surprising for the non-top-tier candidate. “This is particularly troublesome because the concerns of African Americans should take precedent over what network is broadcasting the debate,” Kucinich said in the statement. "Those candidates planning to skip this debate clearly are trying to avoid a forum where there will be hard-hitting questions from people who may not agree with them. But taking questions from all sides is part of politics, and part of being President. I'm running to be President for all people in this country.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we noted that the campaign fact sheet detailing Obama's health-care plan didn't include the costs or how Obama plans to pay for them. Well, the campaign just sent us a memo from three Harvard experts who break down the plan. According to the experts, Obama's universal health insurance proposal would require between $50-$65 billion in new federal funds per year. And they say that $65 billion a year "is roughly the amount of revenue that would be raised by restoring the top two personal income tax brackets and rates on dividends and capital gains to Clinton-era levels, and retaining the estate tax with a $7 million exemption rather than repealing it."
Yet the experts also estimate that Obama's plan -- especially its call for investments in new information technology, reducing insurance industry overhead, and improve disease management -- could save the overall US economy $120-$200 billion per year.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Policy Time: The day after Memorial Day brings two big policy rollouts: Clinton on income inequality and Obama’s health-care plan. The Obama campaign tells First Read that his plan will provide universal health-care and will save the typical family up to $2,500 each year. The plan, among other things, will 1) give individuals the choice to buy affordable health coverage that is similar to the plan available to federal employees; 2) require all employers to contribute to their employee’s health coverage; and 3) create a National Health Insurance Exchange that will help individuals looking to purchase private insurance. What's missing (at least from the fact sheet the campaign gave us): its cost and how Obama plans to pay for it. Meanwhile, Clinton’s speech, her campaign says, will identify income inequality as a 2008 campaign issue and outline her approach in dealing with economic issues. Note: Now that the top three Dems have all unveiled at least a portion of their health-care plans, look for uber-analysis of the three for differences/similarities in the coming days.
*** Troop Pullout? Perhaps the biggest news over the Memorial Day weekend was that the Administration is debating a troop cut in 2008. This release is designed, in part, to keep wayward Republicans from abandoning Bush on Iraq this calendar year and possibly buying political time. If this is indeed a real proposal, then expect the debate between the Democrats and Republicans to be over the size of the cut. The likely Dem talking point: Pulling out a little is akin to being a little pregnant -- it's just not plausible and will only cut down on the number of weekly U.S. troop deaths, but it won't eliminate them. The likely GOP talking point: We can't abandon Iraq completely -- after all, we broke it, and we have to fix it.
*** Blog This: Cleaning up from last week's Iraq supplemental vote… Just how did anti-war blogosphere favorites, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Jim Webb from Virginia, and Jon Tester from Montana vote the opposite of Obama and Clinton? Why didn't Clinton or Obama use the three frosh Senate Dems as cover to vote yes? Why hasn't the anti-war left its their anger at Webb/Brown/Tester?
*** The Day The Immigration Lights Went Out In Georgia? Bush heads to Georgia to sell his prickly comprehensive immigration reform proposal. Georgia, of course, is the state where Republicans reportedly booed/hissed their own senator, Saxby Chambliss (R), for his support of the proposal. Will Bush get a warmer reception?
*** Unscathed: The Clinton camp escaped the weekend relatively unscathed considering all the negative potential that was there (the Iowa memo and the new books about the Clintons). Her first Iowa trip post-memo was not only successful, but got more local press than normal because of it. And then the book fallout seems minimal, although that could still change once the authors go public. The only negative storyline that was pursued was courtesy of today's New York Post, which claims there is a NY-DC rift in the campaign. But do consider that the key "New York" staff has moved to DC, so the story may be a little more than hype.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden continues to stump in Iowa, giving the keynote address at the National Security Network Luncheon in Des Moines; McCain hits a fundraiser in San Diego and then participates in the Wall Street Journal’s “All Things Digital” conference; and Romney spends his entire day campaigning in New Hampshire.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 20 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 27 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 73 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 97 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 160 days
Countdown to Iowa: 229 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 251 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 524 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 601 days
Here's the Saturday New York Times report on the troop-cut discussion. "Still, there is no indication that Mr. Bush is preparing to call an early end to the current troop increase, and one reason officials are talking about their long-range strategy may be to blunt pressure from members of Congress, including some Republicans who are pushing for a more rapid troop reduction."
Lots of chatter about the intelligence report that circulated around the White House BEFORE the Iraq invasion, which predicated many of the problems the Administration is experiencing right now in Iraq. Recall that on Thursday, Bush all but admitted that he was briefed about this report when he brushed off a question about the report saying he received a lot of advice but he made the call that ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein was the overriding right thing to do.
McCain has a new talking point regarding Iraq and this call for a "Plan B": “‘I believe that General (Dwight) Eisenhower didn't have a Plan B at Normandy, and I don't think that General (Ulysses S.) Grant had a plan B when he decided to take Richmond,’ said McCain, referring to turning-point battles in World War II and the Civil War. ‘I know of a number of other options - the problem is, none of them are any good.’”
CONTINUED >>
The AP previews Bush’s visit to Georgia today, where he “will visit the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Brunswick today to talk about immigration. Bush will highlight enforcement provisions in the immigration package that Congress is considering. He'll note that the plan calls for more immigration and border patrol agents and more fences along the border, as well as an employment verification system.”
The New York Times is the latest to look at the flak -- or its flack (just kidding)? -- that conservative GOP senator Jon Kyl has received over his support for the immigration package. “Angry calls poured into Senator Jon Kyl’s office this week by the thousands, expressing outrage beyond anything he said he had witnessed in his 20-year political career. The callers were inflamed by Mr. Kyl’s role in shaping the bipartisan immigration compromise announced May 17, which lawmakers continue to debate.”
Meanwhile, McCain is trying to take his immigration lemons and turn them into lemonade. He's beating back the Romney and Giuliani criticism over the legislation with calls for them to produce their own plan. “‘It’s the easiest thing in the world to say no to things,’ said McCain. ‘My job is to do the hard things.’”
BIDEN: Despite being one of the many Senate Democrats to vote for the Iraq war supplemental, he sounded just as anti-Iraq as any Democratic presidential contender while campaigning in Iowa this weekend.
And yet, Biden was also embracing the fact that he was the only major Dem contender to vote for the supplemental, particularly on this Memorial Day weekend.
Also of note, Biden unveiled a Web ad focused on his work to get more mine-resistant vehicles to the military. It's a 60-second spot, so one gets the feeling this was designed to eventually find its way on the TV airwaves.
CLINTON: The one upside to last week’s leaked she-might-skip-Iowa memo? It meant the local Iowa press corps covered her weekend trip with an increased intensity that's usually reserved for a time closer to the caucuses. Said Clinton at one stop: “‘I'm going to spend so much time in Iowa, I'm going to be able to caucus for myself,’ she said.
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: This Kansas City Star piece doesn't bill itself as a rundown of everything that's gone wrong for Sam Brownback's campaign, but it turns out to do just that.
While campaigning in Iowa over the weekend, Brownback took a veiled shot at Giuliani, saying the eventual GOP nominee needs to uphold all aspects of the GOP platform -- both on the economic and social fronts.
GIULIANI: The New York Times front-pages how Giuliani has softened his image and rhetoric on the campaign trail. “The dyspeptic, ‘not afraid to suggest his opponents have really deep-seated psychological problems’ Republican mayor of fact and legend has taken a holiday. What’s left on the presidential campaign trail is a commanding daddy of a candidate, a disciplined fellow who talks about terrorism and fiscal order and about terrorism some more.”
The New York Post sees similarities between the speed bumps in the early stages of Giuliani's presidential campaign and the mistakes he made in his first bid for office -- the unsuccessful '89 mayoral race.
CONTINUED >>
The New Hampshire GOP is in some financial dire straits (thanks mostly to that never-ending phone-jamming lawsuit). Anyway, as a way to replenish their coffers, the party is charging ‘08 campaigns as much as $10,000 for prime speaking slots at its June 6 gala fundraiser. Romney and Brownback have chipped in the $10,000 so far.
The AP does the first of what will be many articles about super delegates, the 200-plus unaffiliated Democratic delegates (all elected officials) that both Obama and Clinton (mainly) will be pursuing. But don't get too caught up in this fight since these folks will go with the candidate who has the best chance to be the nominee, even if that means changing allegiances a few times.
With Congress in the midst of Memorial Day recess, the reviews aren't great for the new sheriffs in town. Congress job rating is just as low now with Democrats in charge as it was a year ago when the GOP still ran things. This is a bigger problem for the Democrats than many in the party appreciate right now. Saturday’s
New York Times: "Democrats themselves reflected that little came easily over the last five months, which offered a lesson in the difficulties of governing with very slim majorities, especially in the Senate. Moreover, there are real fault lines and divisions within the party, most apparent, perhaps, on how fast and how far to go in demanding an end to the war in Iraq."
We won't be publishing during the three-day Memorial Day weekend. But we'll see you bright and early Tuesday morning.
Have a great and safe weekend!
From NBC's Mike ViqueiraConsulting a
dictionary, it appears that one can use either flack or flak.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Wow, talk about a day full of attacks and counterattacks in the presidential race! Here's McCain's response to Obama's earlier comment: "While Senator Obama's two years in the U.S. Senate certainly entitle him to vote against funding our troops, my service and experience combined with conversations with military leaders on the ground in Iraq lead me to believe that we must give this new strategy a chance to succeed because the consequences of failure would be catastrophic to our nation's security."
More from McCain: "By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket."
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
On a trip to California this week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has done so many non-foreign policy photo-ops that local reporters have been speculating she's laying the groundwork for a run for governor. Now she's added fuel to that speculation by giving a very non-Sherman-like answer to a question about having future political ambitions. The transcript of the Q&A with a local newspaper reporter was just released by the State Department.
Asked about running for governor, Rice answered: " Look, one doesn't ever know what life may bring, but I sure don't have any plans to run for office." In the past, Rice has always simply said she plans to return to teaching in Stanford. Since she never speaks carelessly, this is a significant departure.
Transcript of the relevant Q&A follows:
QUESTION: Okay. Since we're on your future, there's a lot of speculation over the last couple of years. I think a couple years ago you were in the news, you know, would you take on Schwarzenegger. Do you have any political ambitions and would you rule -- would you definitively rule out ever running for elective office in California?
SECRETARY RICE: Well, I don't see myself running for elective office. I really don't. I don't think I ever ran for student government, actually. But look, one doesn't ever know what life will bring, but I sure don't have any plans to run for office.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign just released a statement in response to the criticisms McCain and Romney issued on Obama's votes against the Iraq supplemental. “This country is united in our support for our troops, but we also owe them a plan to relieve them of the burden of policing someone else’s civil war," Obama said. "Governor Romney and Senator McCain clearly believe the course we are on in Iraq is working, but I do not. And if there ever was a reflection of that it's the fact that Senator McCain required a flack jacket, ten armored Humvees, two Apache attack helicopters, and 100 soldiers with rifles by his side to stroll through a market in Baghdad just a few weeks ago." Ouch.
More from Obama: “Governor Romney and Senator McCain are still supporting a war that has cost us thousands of lives, made us less safe in the world, and resulted in a resurgence of al-Qaeda. It is time to end this war so that we can redeploy our forces to focus on the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and all those who plan to do us harm.”
From NBC's Bob Windrem and Mark Murray
A new book's revelation that Hillary Clinton did not read the CIA National Intelligence Estimate on Iraqi WMD before voting on war authorization should not be a surprise. Most congressmen and senators didn't. And there is a (classified) list of who did and who didn't because members had to visit a secure room -- called the SCIF -- at the Capitol to view it. Members have to sign the document out. In the case of the NIE on Iraq, there were separate logs for the five-page executive summary and the full 90-page NIE.
According to a former senior US intelligence official, "only a handful" of congressmen and senators actually went to the SCIF and signed out the NIE. Most who did were members of the intelligence and armed services committees. Although the log is classified, several senators have admitted either reading or not reading the report. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-WV, of the Senate Intelligence Committee was one who admitted he read it. Among those who have admitted they didn't were Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, D-FL, and Sen. Harry Reid, D-NV, now Senate majority leader.
The Washington Post also reported this back in 2004: "In the fall of 2002, as Congress debated waging war in Iraq, copies of a 92-page assessment of Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction sat in two vaults on Capitol Hill, each protected by armed security guards and available to any member who showed up in person, without staff. But only a few ever did. No more than six senators and a handful of House members read beyond the five-page National Intelligence Estimate executive summary, according to several congressional aides responsible for safeguarding the classified material."
But even if Clinton wasn't alone in not reading the NIE, the question arises: Did she do everything possible to have the best information on Iraq WMD before casting her war authorization vote?
From NBC's Mark Murray
Well, the GOP knives are out after Clinton's and Obama's vote against the Iraq supplemental last night. Said McCain in a statement: "I was very disappointed to see Senator Obama and Senator Clinton embrace the policy of surrender by voting against funds to support our brave men and women fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. This vote may win favor with MoveOn and liberal primary voters, but it's the equivalent of waving a white flag to al Qaeda."
Added Romney: "At a time when the men and women of our military fighting terrorism around the globe needed them most, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cast a vote that singularly defines their lack of leadership and serves as a glaring example of an unrealistic and inexperienced worldview on national security that is regrettably shared by too many of their fellow Capitol Hill Democrats."
Those comments on Clinton and Obama will obviously play well with GOP primary voters. But the general public? Maybe not so much. A new New York Times/CBS poll finds that 76% believe things are going badly in Iraq; another 76% say the troop surge has made no impact or has made things worse; and 63% believe the US should set a date for withdrawing troops next year.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Safety Dance: The safe thing to do if you're a Democrat running for president was to do what Clinton, Dodd, and Obama did: vote against the Iraq supplemental. But ask yourself this question: What if Clinton had voted for it? There was plenty of cover (including Al Gore, by the way), and she might have gotten very "presidential" type coverage since she was doing the supposedly unpopular thing. To put it another way, will anti-Iraq Democrats ever give her the credit for this vote?
*** A Tough Week: Speaking of Clinton, she’s had quite a week, hasn’t she? First, there was that now-rejected campaign memo recommending that she skip Iowa -- where, of all places, she campaigns today. Next, there was the vote on the Iraq supplemental. And now there’s the early release of two biographies on her that will do nothing but dredge up the marriage chatter. The release of these Clinton books, in fact, will likely lead to some negative press for her. No surprise, but compared to Obama and Edwards, she had been garnering the best press of the three these first five months of the campaign. These books might change that.
*** The Silent Majority? Opponents of the Senate immigration bill -- and trust us, there are many -- like to point out how the legislation defies the will of the American people. But the New York Times/CBS poll shows something different: 66% favor a guest-worker program, and 62% believe that illegal immigrants who have lived in the US for two years should be allowed to apply for legal status.
*** The Right’s New Target? Note how Giuliani and Romney ganged up on Edwards after he said that the war on terror is just a slogan. And Edwards shoved back. “George Bush has made America less safe and less respected in the world,” he said in a statement yesterday. “The Republican candidates are now trying to double down on his failed foreign policy. They just don't get it. George Bush's strategy is a failure - the threat of terrorism has increased.”
*** Three Additional Thoughts: A few things struck us about Bush's presser yesterday. One, he really wanted to talk about immigration, but didn't get enough questions on the topic. Maybe there really is an elite-grassroots disparity on this issue where we (the media) don't get what the grassroots doesn't like about this bill. Two, why did Bush TWICE personalize answers on Iraq by talking about the safety of individual reporters’ children? Imagine if the media had personalized a question to Bush about his kids? Three, Bush used the phrase "different configuration" when talking about Iraq. You got the sense he and the White House have decided they don't want to use the word "redeployment" that is popular with Democrats, but still offer up the same idea.
*** On The Trail: As the Memorial Day holiday begins, Obama gives a speech in Chicago to the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists; Paul appears on Bill Maher’s HBO show; Richardson fundraises in New Mexico; and Tommy Thompson campaigns in New Hampshire.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 77 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 164 days
Countdown to Iowa: 233 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 255 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 528 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 605 days
The Los Angeles Times: “Bringing to a close an extended showdown between Congress and President Bush over the Iraq war, overwhelmingly united Republicans and deeply divided Democrats passed a $120-billion emergency war spending bill Thursday that would not require U.S. combat troops to be withdrawn… By codifying political steps the Iraqi government should take to reduce sectarian strife, the bill gives Republicans linked to the unpopular war the opportunity to back legislation that puts new requirements on the Baghdad government. And it forced vanquished antiwar Democrats — who since January had been waging a fierce campaign to use the funding bill to force a troop withdrawal — to pin their hopes on future legislation.”
The Washington Post: Bush, who had vowed to veto any legislation with restrictions on troop deployments, announced he would sign the $120 billion package, which was approved 80 to 14 last night in the Senate, after a 280 to 142 House vote… The focus now shifts to September, when the new funding runs out, and when U.S. commanders say they will be able to assess the results of an ongoing troop buildup.”
If you’re keeping track, Clinton, Dodd, and Obama were among the 14 senators who voted against the Iraq supplemental last night; Biden voted for it. Here are their statements:
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times front-pages the immigration numbers in the new NYT/CBS poll. “Two-thirds of those polled said illegal immigrants who had a good employment history and no criminal record should gain legal status as the bill proposes, which is by paying at least $5,000 in fines and fees and receiving a renewable four-year visa. Many Republican lawmakers have rejected this plan, calling it amnesty that rewards immigrants who broke the law when they entered the United States. But the poll showed that differences are not great between Republicans and Democrats on this issue, with 66 percent of Republicans in the poll favoring the legalization proposal, as well as 72 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of independents.”
In his LA Times column, Ron Brownstein thinks the Senate immigration compromise is a good one.
By a 66-29 vote yesterday, the Senate approved a provision that would give legal status to most of the nation’s 12 million illegal immigrants.
BIDEN: Influential New Hampshire state senator Lou D'Allesandro has invited Biden to attend one of his house party’s next Friday, the Boston Globe reports.
CLINTON: The Washington Post got its hands on the two new Clinton books that have the Clinton campaign nervous. “‘A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton,’ by Carl Bernstein reports that Clinton as first lady was terrified she would be prosecuted, took over her own legal and political defense, and decided not to be forthcoming with investigators because she was convinced she was unfairly targeted. While in Arkansas according to Bernstein, she personally interviewed one woman alleged to have had an affair with her husband, contemplated divorce and thought about running for governor out of anger at her husband's indiscretions."
More: “‘Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton,’ by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr., reports that during her husband's 1992 campaign, a team she oversaw hired a private investigator to undermine Gennifer Flowers ‘until she is destroyed.’ Flowers had said publicly that she had an affair with Bill Clinton while he was governor of Arkansas. The book also suggests that Hillary Clinton did not read the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in 2002 before voting to authorize war. And it includes a third hand report that the Clintons had a secret plan after the 1992 election in which he would have eight years as president and then she would have eight years, although last night a key source disavowed the story."
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: The ex-speaker apparently drew 1,200 to a speech yesterday at the Nixon library.
GIULIANI: The campaign has hired Donald Trump Jr. as a fundraiser. Trump's father has endorsed both Giuliani and Clinton.
MCCAIN: On June 18, McCain’s campaign will hold a major fundraiser in Boston -- Romney's home turf -- with former acting Gov. Jane Swift among the organizers.
Business Week has an interview with McCain. Here's one notable excerpt:
Q: How is America perceived around the world?
A: It's worse probably than it has ever been. When I'm President, I will close Guantánamo Bay. I will address climate change in the most serious fashion. And we will never torture another person being held in detention. And I would be humble.
CONTINUED >>
In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook takes a look at the 2nd quarter money race, which he says presents challenges for all the front-runners. “Much of the cash raised during the first quarter was ‘love money’ – contributions from candidates’ most loyal friends and supporters. But to be truly competitive, a presidential campaign must build many concentric circles of financial support beyond the candidate’s Christmas card list and the ranks of previous contributors.”
The Los Angeles Times reports that the internal probe at the Department of Justice has expanded due to Monica Goodling's testimony.
Meanwhile, Sen. Chuck Schumer is insisting that he'll get his non-binding vote of no confidence.
From NBC's Antoine Sanfuentes
There is so much control a president and his handlers can have during a Rose Garden press conference. Today, while President Bush was asked about the Justice Department's controversy, a review of the tape shows a bird pooped on his sleeve. He then quickly wiped it off. The bird dropping was first reported by ABC's Ann Compton.
It's not clear whether the Secret Service apprehended the bird...
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer says the Senate will take a "no confidence" vote on Attorney General Alberto Gonzales after it completes action on the immigration reform bill. Under the current working schedule, that would be about the week of June 11th. But his efforts will still face both procedural and political hurdles before getting to such a vote.
At a news conference today, Schumer introduced his non-binding resolution against Gonzales which states, "Alberto Gonzales no longer holds the confidence of the Senate and the American people." Schumer says he consulted with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid about the timing of vote. But Senate rules afford the minority party several tools to jam the process or push Democrats back on their political heels. While there are a handful of Senate Republicans who've called for Gonzales to resign (and several more who've shunned support for him), Schumer's resolution has no Republican co-sponsors. And without GOP support, Schumer would be unable to muster the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.
One of the Republicans who's called for the attorney general to step down has already indicated he'd throw up one of those political obstacles. Sen. Tom Coburn says if there's a no-confidence vote on Gonzales, there should also be one on Congress' ability to balance the budget -- a jab to the Democratic leadership. "It is hypocritical for the Senate to grand stand for political purposes while ignoring its own shortcomings that threaten the solvency of Social Security and Medicare and the standard of living of future generations," Coburn wrote in a letter to Republican leaders.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Carrie DannAt a town hall today in Florida, Romney pounced on Edwards' statement yesterday that the "war on terrorism" is nothing more than a slogan. Per a transcript provided by his campaign, Romney said, "I was shocked to see just a day or two ago, John Edwards – a candidate for President of the United States – say there's not a War on Terror." There were boos.
Romney continued, "Yeah, boo. Maybe he needs to explain that to the people in London, to the people in Madrid, to the people in Tanzania, to the people in Saudi Arabia. Explain that to the people in Indonesia, in Bali. Explain that to the people of New York City. Explain that to the people of Lebanon. Explain that to the people in Israel that there's not a War on Terror. You see the terrorists are fighting a war on us. We've got to make sure that we’re fighting a war on them."
Interestingly, Edwards took this shot just a few hours ago. "George Bush has made America less safe and less respected in the world... And what we're seeing now in this campaign is John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, the other Republicans running for president of the United States are trying to be a bigger, badder George Bush. Is that really what America wants over the next four years?"
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Robert Windrem
The Senate Intelligence Committee is poised to release another section of its Phase II prewar intelligence report on the Iraq war. The committee tells NBC that the report has been cleared and declassified by the Director of National Intelligence, and it could be released by the panel as early as today, but maybe tomorrow.
This section of the report deals with the prewar assessments of a postwar Iraq. In other words, were the intelligence community's judgments about what Iraq would look like after the war accurate?
The report, which was written by the Senate Intel Committee, is expected to be about 40 pages or so. It will also be accompanied by two declassified reports written by the National Intelligence Council: "Principal Challenges in Post-Saddam Iraq" and "Regional Consequences of Regime Change in Iraq."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
I am listening since I have to be an anchor buddy....
He punted on the Iran question, bought time by vamping on press interest
Sectarian violence... More casualties.... Every quarter we talk about that
Surge isn't done!?!?!?
Troops aren't all there? So he acknowledges a September deadline...
Need a "different configuration" his phrase for "redeployment" iraq study group "appeal to me."
Beef!
Acknowledged being warned tacitly about iran and Al Qaeda influecne... Didn't say but didn't deny it.
Called those who don't see this as a "war on terror" as naïve.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Clinton campaign has announced the finalists in its campaign theme song contest: KT Tunstall's "Suddenly I See," Shania Twain's "Rock This Country!" U2's "Beautiful Day," The Temptations' "Get Ready," and Smash Mouth's "I'm a Believer. The campaign also lists the top write-in candidates, which include Tina Turner's "The Best" and the Police's "Everything Little Thing She Does Is Magic."
To announce this, the campaign includes a video of Hillary going over some of the more bizarre entries via YouTube. The video shows off her humor -- something the campaign wants voters to see.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Caught Between Iraq And A Hard Place: Here we go again. Like they did with Feingold-Reid, Dodd and Edwards are pushing Clinton and Obama to the left on the Iraq supplemental. So far, both front-runners haven’t said how they’ll vote. Do they vote against it (and risk being branded as not supporting the troops in a general), or do they vote for it (and risk [further] alienating anti-war liberals)? This all seems similar to the 2003 vote over the now-famous $87 billion, which Kerry voted for before he voted against. The difference this time? As we’ve noted before, Bush and the war aren't nearly as popular as they were in 2003-4.
*** Iow-ay Or The High-away? What continues to have us talking, of course, is the leaked Clinton memo by deputy campaign manager Mike Henry, who proposed that Clinton skip Iowa -- an idea the campaign has since rejected. After reading the memo, there are a few contradictions in it, including the argument Henry makes about skipping Iowa because these small states may not have the influence they had in the past. The contradiction? He argues to campaign in New Hampshire, which is SMALLER than Iowa. So one can't help but see this memo as an attempt to rationalize the possibility of losing Iowa and trying to wiggle out of that scenario. The good news for Clinton, we guess, is that she's certainly lowered expectations a bit. Still, she's Hillary Clinton, and as the national frontrunner, she can't skip any states, particularly one so important in the general. Plus, the Clintons can't ever look over-calculating, and skipping Iowa is over-calculating.
*** More On That Memo: What's interesting is that the campaign is saying that this was the opinion of one senior staffer. Could it be Henry was really the only one arguing against Iowa inside the campaign? Isn't that hard to believe? By the way, is Henry being thrown under the bus? This is a deputy campaign manager, not just any old staffer. As for the memo itself and how it became public and why etc., we'll never know for sure. But the New York Times acknowledges that it got its copy of the memo from a rival campaign. Will the Clinton camp ever email anything to each other again?
*** Back On The Saddle: In a way, Hillary Clinton addressing health care is akin to a Titanic survivor deciding to ride an ocean-liner again, or a baseball closer who blew it in Game 7 getting back on the mound. In each case, that person has the courage to overcome a mistake or tragedy, learn from it, and jump back on the saddle. Clinton is doing that as we publish, with a speech on rising health-care costs at George Washington University, in which she’ll unveil proposals that would reduce costs by at least $120 billion per year. But did she learn the right lesson from her health-care failure in the '90s? As Joshua Green wrote in the Atlantic last fall, "Yet it is fair to wonder if Clinton learned the lesson of the health-care disaster all too well, whether she has so embraced caution and compromise that she can no longer judge what merits taking political risks."
*** Let’s Get Ready To Ron-ble: Ron Paul -- yes, Ron Paul -- steps into the political spotlight with a press conference at the National Press Club. Appearing with former CIA official Michael Scheuer, ex-head of its Bin Laden Unit, Paul finally punches back at Giuliani after the ex-mayor blasted him at last week's GOP debate for stating that the US presence in the Middle East was responsible for 9/11.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Brownback campaigns in Iowa; Edwards addresses Alabama’s Legislature (although that may get canceled), while his wife gives a speech in Wisconsin; Huckabee continues to do media hits in Texas; Hunter stumps in South Carolina; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; and Romney travels to Florida, where he holds an “Ask Mitt Anything” forum and a media avail later in the day.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 78 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 165 days
Countdown to Iowa: 234 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 256 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 529 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 606 days
Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, the Senate is expected to vote today on the revised Iraq supplemental, which does not contain timelines for troop withdrawal. Here's where the Democratic presidential candidates stand (for now) on this new war-funding bill:
BIDEN: At a news conference on military equipment, he said YES, he'll vote for the war-funding bill. And later in a written statement, he said: "I believe that as long as we have troops on the frontlines, we must give them the equipment and protection they need. So I will vote for the supplemental."
CLINTON: She didn't answer the question when asked yesterday at an immigration news conference or in the hallway pursuit of her that follows.
DODD: in a written statement, he said NO, he will not vote for it. "I cannot and will not simply give this President another blank check."
OBAMA: His office says he wants to read the bill, see what the benchmarks are, and then announced his decision.
Edwards put out this statement: “Every member of Congress who wants to support our troops and end the war should oppose this proposal. If you're in Congress, and you believe this war is wrong, I urge you to use every power you have to stop it if it's brought up for a vote. Block the blank check.”
The New York Times examines why congressional Democrats caved on the Iraq supplemental. “Democrats said they did not relish the prospect of leaving Washington for a Memorial Day break — the second recess since the financing fight began — and leaving themselves vulnerable to White House attacks that they were again on vacation while the troops were wanting. That criticism seemed more politically threatening to them than the anger Democrats knew they would draw from the left by bowing to Mr. Bush."
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times notes, "The hearings have failed to produce support for Democrats' most provocative theories: that the firings were driven by a desire to find U.S. attorneys who would pursue legal action — in voting fraud or public corruption matters — in ways that would help Republican candidates."
Yet the Boston Globe chimes in with this: “Goodling's admission that she considered party affiliation when vetting candidates for civil service assistant prosecutor jobs added to a growing picture of politicization of the nation's law enforcement system under Gonzales, critics alleged. Under federal law, officials may not take politics into account when hiring for civil service jobs."
Goodling, though, may have done herself some good, the New York Times writes. "Goodling’s soft-spoken, careful and often deferential answers seemed to clash with descriptions of her as an abrasive conservative at the Justice Department."
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: He’s campaigning with Christian leader David Barton throughout Iowa today.
This morning, meanwhile, the Brownback camp announced that it picked up the endorsement from Norma McCorvey -- the now pro-life “Jane Roe” of Roe v. Wade.
GINGRICH: A Dallas-based radio show that Gingrich appeared on yesterday sent out a press release noting that the ex-Speaker said on this show that he'll "probably" run.
GIULIANI: While the Giuliani camp has given the same reassurances to Iowans and reporters about competing in Iowa in January, the campaign has yet to commit to competing in the straw poll. The campaign said it would make a final decision about the straw poll in the next 20 days (actually, its now 19 days).
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The campaign is in major Iowa damage control mode after a memo leaked out that her campaign was considering bypassing Iowa. Clinton, herself, called the grand poobah of the Iowa press corps, Des Moines Register's David Yepsen, to reassure him and all of Iowa that she's in it to win.
The New York Times: “Any hint that Mrs. Clinton was not committed to winning in Iowa could hurt her there. Recent polls in Iowa have shown Mrs. Clinton trailing John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. And the disclosure of a memorandum suggesting she might not play in Iowa could also have the effect — intended or not — of lowering expectations for her performance there, softening a defeat and or making a victory that much more dramatic.”
Here's the memo itself.
One other thought: This idea that the campaigns are going to need to save money for February 5 is an odd argument in this respect. Outside of some candidate that can spend $100 million in one week, is there a campaign that can actually afford 1,000 points to advertise in a slew of states like California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Texas? The truth is no campaign (outside of Romney's checkbook) can afford it. Even the front-runners will be riding free media by the time February 5 rolls around -- and that's assuming Tsunami Tuesday matters. Florida, on Jan. 29, may actually end this thing.
CONTINUED >>
Here’s Chuck’s full write-up of the focus group teased out in yesterday's First Read.
Is America falling more in love with all the presidential candidates? If it's possible, every single major candidate for president has seen his/her FAV/UNFAV ratio improve in the most recent Gallup poll. Clinton, McCain, Edwards, Romney, Obama, and Giuliani all saw their FAV ratings rise and their UNFAV ratings go down. A sign the country is getting more comfortable with their choices?
Clinton: went from 50/47 earlier this month to 53/45 now; McCain from 50/30 to 54/27; Romney from 24/22 to 27/19; Edwards from 49/31 to 56/24 ratio; Obama from 50/24 to 55/20; and Giuliani -- in the smallest improvement -- from 61/24 to 62/24.
Did you know the Democratic candidates were invited to participate in a forum that's going to be held at an Indian gambling resort? So far, only Richardson and Gravel have committed thanks mostly to a problem regarding labor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
In one of his first appearances on the wire since re-joining AP, Ron Fournier and Beth Fouhy co-report on a leaked memo the AP obtained from Hillary Clinton's campaign which apparently argues for skipping the Iowa caucuses. We know it's not easy being the national frontrunner, but can any frontrunner skip an early state? As I detailed in a column a few weeks ago, skipping Iowa has proven to be a
bad strategy. The last candidate to successfully do it was Bill Clinton and that's because EVERY one of his primary foes skipped Iowa due to the presence of
Tom Harkin in the race. Oh, and by the way, Iowa is a swing state in the general election and voters will take skipping the caucuses personally and could punish that candidate should they happen to actually get the nomination.
From the AP report, which is not yet on line: "The memo is a sign of division among the New York senator's strategic advisers. The memo by [dep. manager] Mike Henry was described generally by two senior Clinton advisers who, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was little chance the senator would take his advice. Harold Ickes, a top Clinton strategist, said the campaign is studying various options for dealing with the rush of nomination contests in early 2008, including bypassing Iowa, but he said the senator was determined to continue her Iowa campaign. "Every campaign games out different scenarios and this is one scenario," he said. "The campaign is moving in Iowa, is going to stay in Iowa and Mrs. Clinton is very dedicated to winning the state."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
This morning, Hotline's blog reported that House Minority Leader John Boehner told a closed gathering of GOP "rapid responders" last night that the Senate immigration bill is a "piece of @#$%." Said Boehner, according to two attendees: "I promised the President today that I wouldn't say anything bad about ... this piece of @#$% bill."
Boehner's office today didn't deny that Boehner said those words. "The comment attributed to the Republican Leader was nothing but an off-the-cuff wisecrack made jokingly during a private gathering," said Boehner's press secretary. "While he has serious concerns about the Senate bill, it's unfortunate that this comment in particular found its way into print."
From NBC's Mark Murray
So how angry are anti-war liberals at the Democratic deal that would remove withdrawal timetables from the Iraq supplemental? Pretty angry -- at least according to an unscientific survey at Daily Kos, one of the leading liberal blogs.
In the poll of more than 9,000 respondents (so far), 37% say they are "off the charts livid"; 25% say they as "mad as hell"; 28% say they're disappointed; 4% say they're mildly frustrated; 2% say they're satisfied; and 1% is undecided.
From NBC's Mark Murray
First Read obtained the outline of the national security speech Edwards will give later today at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. In the speech, he will call for moving beyond Bush's "Global War on Terror" doctrine. "What we need is not more slogans but a comprehensive strategy to deal with the complex challenge of both delivering justice and being just," he will say. "Not hard power. Not soft power. Smart power."
To achieve that, Edwards will propose strengthening US partnerships, having an effective intelligence strategy that adheres to the rule of law, and solving global poverty (which he believes is a moral AND security issue). He also will calls for rebuilding the military -- by repairing civil-military relations, rooting out cronyism and waste at the Pentagon, and reconfiguring force structure to meet the challenges of the new century. And Edwards will say that he will use offensive force only after all others options, including diplomacy, have failed.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
It's been interesting to watch Sen. Hillary Clinton try and win the favor of some anti-war Democrats. A few weeks back she floated the idea of de-authorizing the war. Frankly, it didn't take off like they probably hoped. Today, this release from her SENATE office (not her campaign) caught our eye. In both a letter to Defense Sec. Robert Gates and in a private meeting with Joint Chiefs Chair Peter Pace, Clinton "called on the Pentagon to brief the Congress on any existing plans for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, or provide an explanation as to why such plans have not been properly created." Nothing like getting the words "Clinton" and "Iraq withdrawal" in the same sentence. More from the release of Clinton's letter to Gates and Pace: “The seeds of many problems that continue to plague our troops and mission in Iraq were planted in the failure to adequately plan for the conflict and properly equip our men and women in uniform,” Senator Clinton wrote. “Congress must be sure that we are prepared to withdraw our forces without any unnecessary danger.”
Moves like this may not please the anti-war activists but for the rank-n-file anti-Iraq Democrat? Maybe.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray***
Rudy Obama? Barack Giuliani? If a focus group of 12 Baltimore County voters could build the perfect 2008 candidate, it's likely they would choose Giuliani and Obama as their main prototypes. Both candidates scored very well in an Annenberg-sponsored focus group (evenly split between Dems, indies and GOPers) conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart. One could sense the focus group was torn between wanting a president with a hopeful vision (Obama in their minds right now) and a president who will keep them safe (Giuliani).
***
Other Observations: From the focus group, Clinton has a LOT of work to do. Eight of the 12 said they couldn't support her under any circumstance, and seven of the 12 said she has the "furthest to go" in winning their trust. Edwards has gone from a "fresh face" to a "pretty boy" (one had even seen that YouTube parody). McCain was seen as presidential but also "disappointing" and "old school." There was an openness to Romney and Fred Thompson but, frankly, the group didn't know a lot about the two. Something Dems should worry about, by the way, is the fact that when the group was asked who would be the "safest choice" for president, 10 of the 12 picked Republicans (four for Rudy, four for McCain, two for Romney and one each for Obama and Edwards). That's right, no one picked Clinton. Look for more insights from this focus group in Chuck's weekly column, which will be posted later today.
***
Not Moving On: Now that congressional Dem leaders have decided to drop their call for a withdrawal timeline in the Iraq supplemental, expect to see MoveOn and other anti-war groups go after these Democrats. Hard. In the past few months, these groups and their allies helped push the Democratic leaders into a position that's supported by a strong majority of Americans. But a strong majority in the polls doesn't necessarily translate into veto-proof majorities in Congress. Will the anti-war crowd be able to forgive the Dems? Do note that Pelosi says she will vote AGAINST the deal.
***
The Daily Kos Crowd Will Love This: Edwards, who has certainly been gunning for the MoveOn/antiwar vote, told NBC’s Matt Lauer on TODAY that the Democrats “should be standing their ground” and not back down on the withdrawal timeline. “This should not be about politics at all,” he said. “This is about life and death… We need to stand our ground.” Edwards also gives a speech today on national security and the military to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. In last month's presidential debate, he was one of four Democrats (Biden, Gravel, and Kucinich were the others) who said he doesn't believe there is such a thing as the "Global War on Terrorism." In his speech, Edwards calls for a comprehensive strategy to replace the GWOT.
***
Winning the Battle But Not the War? Monica Goodling, the former DOJ aide who pleaded the 5th in the US attorneys controversy but later struck an immunity deal, testifies before the House Judiciary Committee. Is Gonzales' job now safe -- no matter what new revelations come out? If so, the White House may very well have won its showdown with Congress over Gonzo's fate. But what happens the next time the White House needs its attorney general to go to bat for the Administration in a prickly matter on Capitol Hill? Does he strike out?
***
It’s Fletcher vs. Beshear: Scandal-plagued GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher got a surprising majority -- 50% -- in last night’s Kentucky gubernatorial primary, but that means he has to win over the 50% or so of GOPers who didn’t vote for him to survive in November, which won’t be easy. Perhaps more surprisingly, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D) was able to avoid a costly run-off by grabbing 41% of the vote. Beshear seems to have the edge going into the general election. Can he keep it?
***
On the Trail: Giuliani campaigns in Vermont and New Hampshire; Huckabee, in Houston, meets with the anti-income tax group Fair Tax and later appears on FOX’s Hannity & Colmes; Hunter continues to stump in South Carolina; McCain raises money in Forth Worth, TX and holds a media avail afterwards; Obama holds a young professionals fundraiser in DC; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; and Romney fundraises and holds a media avail in Oklahoma.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 79 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 166 days
Countdown to Iowa: 235 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 257 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 530 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 607 days
The headline in the New York Times: “Democrats Pull Troop Deadline From Iraq Bill.” From the story: “The decision to back down was a wrenching reversal for leading Democrats, who saw their election triumph in November as a call to force an end to the war. It was the first time since taking power in Congress that the Democrats had publicly agreed to allow a vote on war financing without a timetable for troop withdrawal.”
Antiwar Democrats criticized the decision. “‘We've given everything away,’ Virginia Democrat Jim Moran said. ‘It will split the Democratic caucus.'”
The Washington Post: “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was so disappointed with the outcome that she said she might vote against the Iraq portion of the package, which will be split into two parts when it comes before the House. ‘I'm not likely to vote for something that doesn't have a timetable,’ she said.”
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times profiles Monica Goodling. "How a 33-year-old graduate of a little-known law school that teaches courses on the philosophy of punishing and controlling ‘sin’ became such a powerful figure in the Justice Department is a key question for congressional investigators looking into charges that the department has been turned into a political tool of the Republican Party."
While Goodling testifies before the House Judiciary Committee today, NBC’s Pete Williams reports that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is out of the country for the remainder of the week -- in Germany for the G-8 ministerial meetings, which precede the G-8 heads of state sessions June 6-8.
Fired US attorney David Iglesias has an
op-ed in the L.A. Times, in which he all but calls for Gonzales to resign. "The nation needs leaders who take ultimate responsibility for the wrongful actions of their subordinates; leaders who do the right thing, regardless of the consequences. Mr. Attorney General, it's time for you to cowboy up and do what's best for the American people you serve."
BROWNBACK: Building his Iowa campaign one supporter at a time, Brownback’s campaign announced the support of Iowa State Sen. Mark Zieman.
GIULIANI: The Boston Globe’s Pindell is not happy that Giuliani’s “town hall” meeting in N.H. is closed to the public.
HUCKABEE: Yesterday, the ex-governor sent out a fundraising email playing off of his shot at Edwards' $400 haircut at last week's GOP debate. "A resourceful staffer came up with the idea of asking people to leave a comment on our blog telling us how much they pay for their haircuts (the consensus seems to be falling between $10-$15) and so I thought, why not ask people to contribute to my campaign what they would typically pay to have their hair cut, or contribute what I pay ($15) when I visit my barbershop."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: We were intrigued to get a release from the Biden campaign touting the upcoming Iowa schedule by the candidate and his spouse, "Dr. Jill Biden." We hadn't seen Mrs. Biden referred to as a "Dr." before. After a little investigating, we found out that she just got her Ph.D. recently. Congrats to Mrs. B on the new degree.
BTW, Biden got his wish for an Iraq-only debate. The only problem? He may be the only participant. Johns Hopkins has invited all the candidates for an Iraq-only debate on June 6. Even Chris Dodd has said he has a scheduling conflict.
CLINTON: Bill Clinton headlines a major fundraiser in Boston on June 6.
Ex-Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack stumped for Clinton and N.H. and touted her new pre-K program yesterday.
CONTINUED >>
Twenty-six members of the
Congressional Black Caucus have written the three Democratic front-runners (Obama, Clinton, and Edwards) to ask them to reconsider their decision to skip a debate cosponsored by the CBC and Fox News.
Speaking of debates,
The Politico’s Wilner writes that CNN, a sponsor of the next round of debates on June 3 and 5, “recently announced it would release its debate footage for public use. If other networks follow suit, the debates will outlast a few television news cycles to become fodder for the conversation online. Past presidential debates have all but faded from memory except for a handful of legendary turning points… But this year's debates won't have to live in memory. Web editors will carve them up into the most interesting segments and sound bites, reinforcing the ‘gotcha’ quality the 2008 discourse has taken. The snappy one-liner, the odd facial expression, the painful trip -- all will live on the Web in perpetuity.”
The AP on yesterday’s gubernatorial primary in Kentucky: “Gov. Ernie Fletcher won the GOP nomination for a second term Tuesday, nine months after authorities dismissed charges that he violated hiring laws in a scheme to reward supporters with state jobs. Accomplishing what some critics had thought impossible, Fletcher withstood challenges from former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup of Louisville and millionaire businessman Billy Harper of Paducah. With 85 percent of precincts reporting, Fletcher had 50 percent of the vote to Northup's 37 percent. Harper had 13 percent.”
The Louisville Courier-Journal: “Former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear rode a late campaign surge to capture the Democratic nomination for governor with just enough votes to avoid a runoff. The Lexington attorney won 41 percent of the vote in a crowded field of six Democrats. He needed 40 percent to avoid a June runoff election.”
We all know that Rep. Jack Murtha is an old school, rough-and-tumble kind of politician. But NBC’s Viqueira says that Murtha’s tactics are causing some embarrassment to Democrats who had promised to clean up DC business as usual. Recently, Murtha stormed to the floor during a vote to threaten GOP Rep. Mike Rogers that he would cut off all pork for Rogers’ district after he worked to kill a Murtha earmark in an Intelligence bill. It’s the second time this year that Murtha has run to the floor to threaten a Republican in such a way. The first victim was Rep. Todd Tiahrt.
Technically, Murtha's action would represent a violation of House rules. Accordingly, Rogers raised a point of privilege yesterday afternoon on the House floor to call for a rebuke of Murtha. Democrats moved to table -- or kill -- the Rogers motion.
This, Viq reminds us, is the same Murtha who told fellow lawmakers during the campaign last year that his friend Nancy Pelosi's promise of earmark reform was "total crap." Murtha is a senior member of the money-spending appropriations committee, and earmarks are a big part of what they do over there. Murtha has loads of influence in doling out this kind of largess.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
In the face of McCain's accusations of flip-flopping on immigration, Mitt Romney today opted for the roll-your-eyes-and-chuckle instead of the counterpunch. Speaking briefly with reporters in Dallas this afternoon, Romney responded with a laugh to McCain's "shoot the Guatemalans off his lawn" potshot -- which McCain liked enough to repeat to television cameras again last night in Oklahoma City.
"I guess it just shows that, even when he's wrong, he's amusing," Romney replied. He went on to defend himself against charges that he's inconsistent on immigration, ticking off the tough-on-illegals policies he promoted as Massachusetts governor. But he noticeably deferred when the press fished for a direct critique of the compromise bill hobbled together by the President and Congress earlier this week. "I'm not in the position to make that call today."
From NBC's Kelly O'DonnellSenior White House advisers say "it's premature" to "announce" an agreement on the war supplemental. "We're hopeful that the discussions over the emergency supplemental funding bill for the troops is nearing a conclusion," says one."We have not seen the final language yet, and we look forward to reviewing it."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Congressional Democratic leaders are set to announce a deal on the once-vetoed Iraq supplemental. The outlines of the deal, similar to a measure put forward last week by GOP Sen. John Warner, would establish 18 benchmarks on political security and economic progress -- with reports due from the Administation to Congress on July 15th and September 15th.
The benchmarks would be tied to Iraqi reconstruction funds, but the President will have the ability to waive the benchmarks. And as the Los Angeles Times mentioned earlier today, the deal won't contain timelines for withdrawal.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Former GOP Sen. George Allen, who lost his Senate race last year (remember "Macaca"?), gives CBN News his takes on the 2008 GOP presidential field -- which he once was angling to be a part of. Allen has some nice things to say about Giuliani and Fred Thompson, but makes some digs at McCain and Romney.
On Giuliani: "We've gotten along very well."
McCain: He talked about working with the Arizona senator on internet tax moratorium, but took a shot at McCain-Feingold.
Romney: Said he doesn't know him, yet notes the issue flip-flopping. But on Romney's current positions: "He's presently taking are good positions."
Huckabee: "I like him a lot."
Hunter: Says he's a "great guy."
T. Thompson: "great record in Wisconsin."
F. Thompson: "I really like Fred. One of the things I like about Fred is that he respects that all wisdom does NOT reside in Washington."
Allen's advice: "Past record of performance is the best indicator of what someone will do in the future."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson keeps blogging. In another post on the conservative site Pajamas Media, he writes: "So, I hear you all have been talking about me." And he goes on to talk about bipartisanship: "To solve our problems, we have to realize that our country is pretty evenly divided along party lines. With close numbers in the House and the Senate, there will be no real reform without real bipartisanship. Too often, what we are seeing isn’t an effort to find solutions, but rather insults and purely partisan politics. There are many good and responsible people in government who are willing to work together – but the level of bipartisanship needed for real progress can only be achieved when politicians perceive that the American people demand it."
Also, check out the number of comments his post received.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Kentucky’s Derby: We haven’t focused much on down-ballot races since last fall’s midterms -- due mainly to the all-consuming presidential race -- but that changes with today’s Kentucky gubernatorial primary. The big story is on the GOP side, where incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher faces a challenge from ex-Rep. Anne Northup and businessman Billy Harper. As one of us wrote yesterday, perhaps no race of 2007 better epitomizes the Republican Party’s past and current struggles than this one does. Ethical troubles, which contributed to the loss of at least nine GOP-held seats last year, continue to haunt the scandal-plagued Fletcher. And Iraq and overall political environment helped defeat Northup last fall.
*** Can Fletcher Win Twice (or Thrice)? Despite being indicted in a hiring scandal and even pleading the 5th, Fletcher seems poised to win the GOP primary and get the 40% need to avoid a run-off. A recent Louisville Courier-Journal poll shows Fletcher leading Northup by 15 points (41%-26%). On the Dem side, according to the poll, Steve Beshear (27%) and Bruce Lunsford (21%) seem headed to a June 26 run-off. But if Fletcher wins, do the Dems automatically become the favorites to win in November in this increasingly GOP-leaning state? In the eastern part of Kentucky, polls open at 6:00 am ET and close at 6:00 pm ET; in the western part, they open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 ET.
*** Stuck in the Middle with You: Giuliani said yesterday that the Senate immigration deal doesn’t have a “clear sense of purpose.” With liberals beginning to line up against the bill, is it possible that McCain might be the only member of the Big Six to support the deal? If so, does the immigration issue go from being a minor nuisance for him to a much bigger one? Maybe that explains his volley at Romney yesterday.
*** Metaphor Time: The potential breakdown of the immigration deal could be a metaphor for McCain's 2008 chances. In many ways, McCain is a compromise candidate, just like this immigration deal. From 30,000 feet, McCain -- like this bill -- seems like the logical way to go. But the more one focuses on the specifics, the more the grumbling begins. How is it that this immigration deal isn't a done deal (despite passing the Senate last year by 60-plus votes)? How is it that McCain is no longer the logical heir or isn't seen as the most electable conservative? There are plenty of ways to nitpick this immigration bill to death from both the left and right -- just like McCain’s presidential bid has been nitpicked.
*** What’s Good for the Goose Isn’t Good for the Gander? Check out Huckabee’s comment that he won’t attend the New Baptist Covenant Celebration next year because of organizer Jimmy Carter's criticism of President Bush. “While I continue to have great respect for President Carter as a fellow Christian believer and Baptist, I’m deeply disappointed by the unusually harsh comments made in my state this past weekend regarding President Bush,” Huckabee said. Wait a second: Hasn’t Huckabee been criticizing Bush and his policies -- at least implicitly -- at the first two GOP debates?
*** Advice and Consent: Michelle Obama tells the AP that she ISN'T one of her husband's closest advisers. "We have very separate professional relationships, which is I think healthy," she said. "There is so much work we need to do as a family and as a couple. We talk about our work, we talk about what we do but he makes his decisions on his own and I try to be supportive."
*** On the Trail: Clinton holds a conference call on her pre-K initiative at 11:30 am ET; Edwards, in New Jersey, tours a stem-cell research facility and holds a media avail; Giuliani has an endorsement announcement in Albany, NY; Hunter stumps in South Carolina; McCain and Romney both fundraise in Texas; and Obama holds his Philadelphia kick off.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 80 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 167 days
Countdown to Iowa: 236 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 258 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 531 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 608 days
The New York Times: “As the Senate began work on a comprehensive immigration bill, lawmakers from both parties demanded substantial changes in the legislation on Monday and forced Senate leaders to extend debate beyond the Memorial Day recess.”
The Washington Post: “Senate leadership aides said yesterday that the proposal could probably muster the support of about 30 Republicans and 30 Democrats -- just enough to beat a filibuster, which was all but promised yesterday by conservatives.”
It’s worth noting that a good number of same-state, same-party senators are split on this bill. For instance, in New Hampshire, John Sununu is against it, but Judd Gregg is for it. By the way, Sununu is up for re-election next year.
CONTINUED >>
The
Los Angeles Times: “Scrambling to send President Bush an emergency war spending bill he will sign, Democratic leaders have decided to drop their insistence on a timeline for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq. The move … is a significant concession to the president and his Republican allies on Capitol Hill, who have steadfastly rejected any dates for bringing U.S. troops home… Under the developing Democratic plan, which leaders are still negotiating, Congress would fund the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq through Sept. 30, the end of the current fiscal year, according to sources familiar with the proposal.”
BIDEN: Reuters reports on Biden’s trip to the UN yesterday, where he “said that he would commit U.S. forces immediately to stop militia in Sudan's Darfur region as long as there were reports of genocide.”
CLINTON: Her headlining appearance at the Arkansas Democratic J-J dinner next month is sold out.
EDWARDS: The former North Carolina senator was in New Hampshire yesterday. About 75 people heard him speaking during his three-stop Western New Hampshire tour.
Edwards will be in New Jersey today to -- among other things -- collect the endorsement of the always popular and sometimes acting Gov. Dick Codey.
Another bad anecdote for Edwards regarding money and poverty? This one has to do with a $55,000 speaking fee he charged UC-Davis in California. The speech was on poverty.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: In accepting support from the New York GOP establishment yesterday, the former mayor talked up his electability in traditionally blue states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.
The AP’s Mike Glover delves into whether or not Giuliani will compete in Iowa. “‘The best organizations have to be McCain and Romney,’ said Sen. Chuck Grassley, the state's top Republican elected official. ‘I don't think Giuliani is very far along on organizing.’” The Giuliani camp disagrees. “‘We are putting in place a full and complete field organization and leadership organization to compete,’ said Mark Campbell, a Giuliani political adviser.” McCain has assigned 20 staffers to Iowa, and Romney has 17. Giuliani aides said they've put seven staffers to work in Iowa and intend to hire more.
The New York Times says that as Giuliani "runs for president, his image as a chief executive who steered New York through the disaster of Sept. 11 has become a pillar of his campaign. But one former member of his inner circle keeps surfacing to revisit that history in ways that are unflattering to Mr. Giuliani: Jerome M. Hauer, New York City’s first emergency management director… Hauer does not disparage Mr. Giuliani’s overall effort at emergency preparedness or appear to have actively sought out a role as a Giuliani scold. But he has emerged as one in several settings where his frank, often blunt, answers to questions have offered a rare view inside the often-insular Giuliani administration."
CONTINUED >>
Remember, Wyoming’s Republican Party will hold its party caucuses the same day as the New Hampshire primary. The
Washington Times: “By piggybacking on New Hampshire's primary, Wyoming Republicans are hoping to grab a bit of the presidential-election spotlight. So far, it seems to be working, said Tom Sansonetti, the Cheyenne lawyer and longtime Republican activist who devised the plan. ‘We're already getting attention that we've never had,’ said Mr. Sansonetti, who serves as the state's 2008 county convention coordinator.”
The
Washington Post uses Falwell’s funeral today as a backdrop to talk about the future of the Christian conservative movement. Mentioned in this piece: Rev. Frank Page, the current president of the Southern Baptists Convention; Mega-church pastors Rick Warren and William Hybels; David Barton, head of the Texas-based group WallBuilders; and Orlando-based Rev. Joel Hunter.
The Washington Post: President Bush said yesterday that Democrats in Congress are engaging in "pure political theater" by preparing resolutions of no confidence in Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, and he repeated his support for his embattled aide and longtime friend.”
The New York Times: “In addition, the Justice Department on Monday released several hundred pages of internal communications and other documents, including previously withheld e-mail messages, that provided fresh insights into the Gonzales situation. Specifically, the documents showed the scramble by White House and Justice Department officials to limit damage caused by the uproar over the dismissals of United States attorneys as Congress was starting its inquiry into the firings this year. The department turned over the documents to House and Senate investigators before Wednesday’s appearance at the House Judiciary Committee by Monica Goodling, the department’s former White House liaison, who is testifying under a grant of immunity.”
The
AP previews today’s gubernatorial primary in Kentucky. “All the campaign bus tours and rallies are over. Now it's up to Kentucky voters to whittle the long list of candidates running for governor.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) made his presidential candidacy official today from Los Angeles, and he made it no secret the moving up primaries like Florida's and California's will benefit his campaign. "The fact that Florida, Texas, and California are early, I welcome that because they are states with strong Latino populations, they are states with strong environmental concerns, they are states where I believe I could do well." He began his announcement by emphasizing that California was his birthplace. "It means so much to me to announce my candidacy in California, the state that I was born and where I'm going to win this primary here in this state." And on Florida, Richardson was frank. "I will campaign in Florida. I will make it a large part of my campaign. I've already done that. I will treat every primary with the seriousness it deserves. ... I am going to be there a lot. In fact, I'm going there next week."
Richardson later had to backtrack a bit on his connection to California. "I also have a confession to make. I was born here but I didn't exactly spend a lot of time here. In fact, I was born here because my father, an American citizen, wanted me to be born in America and he had a sister that lived here. So that's why I was born here. Now, I didn't spend much time here. In fact, it was about eight hours cause I went right back." Then why did Richardson announce in California on the basis of it being his birthplace? "But now there's the California primary, so I'm trying to improve on those roots."
If elected, Richardson would be the first Latino president. Earlier in the campaign season, he had stated he was the first Latino candidate. After being corrected, Richardson admitted he is the first Latino to run for president in the Democratic party. "For the record, because I got to be correct in some of these things, the first candidate for President was some 25 years ago. He was a Republican. Name Benjamin Fernandez. I've checked. I don't know where he is. He may still be around. So I am really the second in history, but the first in the Democratic party."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
In a press availability today, President Bush was asked about Jimmy Carter's recent criticisim of his presidency. Here's his response: "I get criticized alot from different quarters that's just part of what happens when you're president. I will continue to make decisions that I think are necessary to protect the American people from harm. I will continue to make decisions based upon certain principles one of which is my strong belief in the universality of freedom. We're at war with an enemy that's relentless and determined. its essential that the decisions I make protect the American people as best as we can."
"Look I understand some people may not agree with the decisions I make but the American people need to know I'm making 'em based on what's best for this country."
Bush was also asked about Alberto Gonzales. "He has got my confidence. He has done nothing wrong. There's be an enormous amount of attention on him. There's been no wrongdoing on his part. He has testified in front of Congress and I frankly view what's taking place in Washington today as pure political theater."
From NBC's Ken StricklandThe Senate begins its debate on a comprehensive immigration reform bill today. With criticism of the fragile bipartisan deal coming from all quarters -- inside and outside of Congress -- it could be weeks before the bill clears the Senate, if ever. Dozens of amendments are likely to be offered on the bill, which was put into 326 pages of legislative language over the weekend.
From NBC's Ken StricklandWhile there was much discussion over the weekend about Sen.
Chuck Schumer's (D) proposal of a "no confidence" vote this week on Attorney General
Alberto Gonzales, it's "unlikely" to happen, according to a senior Democratic aide. On paper, having such a vote would appear to be a no-brainer for Democrats because it would likely get some Republican support. But in the Senate, there's no such thing as taking a clean shot on an issue. If a vote did come to the floor, GOP leaders have procedural tools to either stop it or require a vote on on another resolution that would be problematic for Democrats to support. ("How about a vote on if the war is lost," a Republican aide suggested.)
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Another edition of emptying my inbox and both actual and mental. Some additional items and thoughts that I will share as frequently as possible. Here's today's brain/email dump:
-- Gallup is out with new numbers on abortion. The headline: a growing minority would like to see Roe overturned. The actual number is 35%, still a minority, but the majority saying don't overturn is 53%. That's a all-time Gallup low. That said, abortion rights supporters should take heart in the fact that more folks still think abortion should be legal in most circumstances compared to those folks who believe it shouldn't be legal at all or very rarely allowed. Bottom line: the country appears to be warming to a day when the feds don't have a say on abortion but these same folks want their own states to keep abortion safe, rare and legal. (poll conducted 5/10-13; 1,007 adults; +/- 3%)
-- Mike Huckabee is trying to make himself more aligned with the Christian conservative crowd. He tells CBN's David Brody that he does NOT believe in teaching about sex and birth control in schools.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Well, it's official: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) has just signed legislation into law moving up his state's presidential primary to January 29. As the AP writes, "The move will put [the] primary behind only the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and on the same day as South Carolina's Democratic primary."
Yet as we've mentioned before, there are potential problems: Both the DNC and RNC have threatened to penalize the states that move up their primaries and -- also in the DNC's case -- even the candidates who campaign in them.
The Giuliani campaign was the first out of the gate to comment on Florida's official move. "Rudy Giuliani is the candidate who will win in Florida," said campaign manager Mike DuHaime in a statement. "We have a strong and growing team on the ground, and the Mayor’s optimistic vision for the country is resonating across the state."
This blog had some technical difficulties Friday afternoon and this weekend, so we're a bit behind in posting some of your comments. But we'll get them up later today. Thanks for your patience.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Announcement Day: Today’s the day when perhaps the most underrated candidate in the field -- Bill Richardson -- makes his presidential bid official, and gets a chance to prove that he deserves a slot in the first tier. He does it from Los Angeles at the Millennium Biltmore Hotel. Richardson has raised an impressive amount of money, and he's getting a lot of support among Hispanics, including some key GOP ones who supported Bush in 2000. If it wasn't for the gee- whiz coverage that Obama and Clinton receive, Richardson might already be getting better press.
*** No Experience Needed? There’s another thing that Richardson has, as his new TV ad notes -- tons of on-the-job experience (congressman, UN ambassador, Energy secretary, governor). But has anyone realized that outside of McCain, none of the Big Six actually has that much experience as they run for president in this post-9/11 world? Clinton is beginning her second term in the Senate; Edwards served only one term in that chamber; Giuliani’s service as an elected official doesn’t extend beyond his two terms as mayor; Obama is just in his third year in the Senate; and Romney is a one-term governor.
*** D.O.A.? Everyone seems to be against the Senate immigration deal. Liberals. Conservatives. Employers. Labor. And the New York Times editorial page. As the political adage goes, if the compromise makes all sides unhappy, that must mean it’s a good compromise. But that’s not the sense we’re getting with this immigration deal. This legislation brought everyone together -- which is a rarity nowadays. But did the deal actually drive them apart?
*** Goodbye Gonzo? Alberto Gonzales has survived a lot longer than anyone expected. Does that end as the Senate takes up its no-confidence vote on him this week?
*** Carter vs. Bush: Is Carter the best person to judge Bush’s place in history? He told the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette: “I think as far as the adverse impact on the nation around the world, this Administration has been the worst in history.” The White House, which called Carter’s comments “sad,” is probably relieved to have a fight like this since Carter wasn't exactly viewed as one of America's better presidents by historians.
*** Reverend Newt: Was anyone else a bit surprised by Gingrich’s cry against a “radical secularism” at his commencement address at Jerry Falwell’s Liberty University over the weekend? The Newt we all know was never a social conservative. Does his speech signal that he’s more serious about a presidential run than we think he is? If so, is he too late getting in?
*** He Who Must Not Be Named: In her interview on TODAY this morning, Clinton was asked two different questions about Obama, and she NEVER once mentioned his name in response. Is it another example of just how disciplined she is?
*** The BLUE-grass State: Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary is tomorrow, and a poll released last week shows embattled incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) leading challenger Anne Northup (R) by 15 points -- and more importantly, above the 40% threshold he needs to avoid a run-off. Does a Fletcher win give the Democrats a better than even-odds chance of winning in November?
*** On the Trail: Besides Richardson’s announcement today, Biden leads a bipartisan delegation of Senate Foreign Relations members to the UN, Clinton unveils her pre-K initiative from Miami; Giuliani does Letterman; and McCain addresses the Oklahoma Legislature, where he unveils his ethics plan.
Countdown to Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary: 1 day
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 81 days
Countdown to Iowa: 237 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 259 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 532 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 609 days
The latest group that’s not crazy about the Senate’s immigration deal: employers. The New York Times writes, “Employers, who helped shape a major immigration bill over the last three months, said on Sunday that they were unhappy with the result because it would not cure the severe labor shortages they foresee in the coming decade. In addition, employers expressed alarm as they learned that the Senate bill would require them to check a government database to verify that all current and former employees — aliens and citizens alike — were eligible to work in the United States.”
Don’t miss this shouting match between GOP Sens. John McCain and John Cornyn. According to several Washington Post sources, it started when "Cornyn began voicing concerns about the number of judicial appeals illegal immigrants could make. After McCain swore at Cornyn and accused him of trying to blow up the pact, Cornyn accused the presidential candidate of ‘parachuting’ into the negotiations at the last minute. McCain, who helped craft an immigration deal last year in the Senate but has been represented by staffers in most meetings this year, blew up at Cornyn, saying, ‘I know more about this than anyone else in the room.’”
CONTINUED >>
The
Washington Post front-pages that the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations are getting a second look. “With negotiations continuing this week on a new war funding bill, the administration is strongly signaling that it would accept the idea of requiring the Iraqi government to meet political benchmarks or else risk losing some assistance from the United States. That was one of the key proposals from the group… The administration is also preparing for its first substantive discussions with Iran, to begin on Memorial Day, not long after its first high-level talks with Syria in more than two years. The Iraq Study Group had strongly urged such regional diplomacy aimed at fostering a political settlement and bringing down the sectarian violence in Baghdad.”
CLINTON: As she previewed on TODAY this morning, the New York Times unveils her pre-K initiative in Florida. The New York Times has some details: “The program would be voluntary for states, which would be required to provide a dollar-for-dollar match and would not be allowed to reduce their current spending on pre-K… States would also be required to hire teachers with bachelor’s degrees and training in early childhood development; establish standards and curriculums devised for early learning; and maintain low teacher-child ratios in the program. The money could also be used to expand Head Start programs.”
Should Clinton worry about the company she's keeping in a place like Louisiana? Clinton, “who has cast herself as an ally of African-Americans in rebuilding this city, this weekend accepted fund-raising assistance from a family friend who is controversial with many black and white victims of Hurricane Katrina,” the New York Times reported over the weekend. “The friend, Sheriff Harry Lee of Jefferson Parish, has been close to former President Bill Clinton for many years, and he is popular among some Democrats here. But Sheriff Lee has a long history of making divisive and derogatory remarks, sometimes aimed at residents of neighboring New Orleans, which is predominantly black, and his relationship with many black political leaders is turbulent.”
More: “Sheriff Lee drew notoriety shortly after the hurricane when some of his deputies helped prevent hurricane evacuees, most of them black, from crossing the Crescent City Connection bridge into Jefferson Parish. Sheriff Lee defended the move, saying his office had “a duty to protect our people.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Earlier, James Dobson said he wouldn’t vote for McCain. Now, he says he also won’t vote for Giuliani.
Everything seems to be fair game with Giuliani these days -- including his time at the Justice Department in the early 1980s. Apparently, Giuliani didn't like playing ball on patronage and had some run-ins with sitting senators about their DOJ recommendations.
The New York GOP state party hierarchy will begin officially lining up behind Giuliani today -- from state chair Joseph Mondello to a slew of county GOP heads. The leaders had held off until last week's state GOP fundraising event that featured both Giuliani and McCain.
The former New York mayor will be in Buffalo on Tuesday to collect money and more New York endorsements.
GINGRICH: The ex-speaker gave the commencement address at mourning Liberty University, which was founded by the late Jerry Falwell. From his speech: "A growing culture of radical secularism declares that the nation cannot profess the truths on which it was founded. We are told our public schools can no longer invoke the Creator nor proclaim natural law nor profess the God-given quality of human rights. In hostility to American history, the radical secularists insist that religious belief is inherently divisive and that public debate can only proceed on secular terms."
CONTINUED >>
Of all the media polls conducted in Iowa, there may be none better than the survey conducted by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register. Her latest survey of both party caucus match ups found some intriguing results: Among Democrats, the news was Clinton's third-place showing and Richardson's double-digit finish. Edwards led with 29% (no surprise), followed by Obama at 23%, Clinton at 21%, Richardson at 10% (he's running ads there), Biden at 3%, Kucinich 2%, Gravel 1%, and Dodd didn't register.
Among Republicans, Romney was the surprise leader (and by a lot -- thanks to his early TV advertising). He's sitting at 30%, followed by McCain at 18%, Giuliani at 17%, Tommy Thompson at 7% (they didn't test Fred -- want to bet Tommy benefited?), Brownback at 5%, and Huckabee and Tancredo each receiving 4%.
Florida’s decision to move its primary to January 29 is causing major headaches for the DNC. Apparently there's a provision that would actually penalize candidates for raising money and campaigning in the state.
While it's not that newsy for elected officials to be calling for Alberto Gonzales' resignation, we get the sense that we're on the verge of actual Justice Department officials to starting calling for his ouster. Just check out this
Washington Post piece regarding the rough treatment Gonzales received from Justice officials.
Meanwhile, Sen. Arlen Specter (R) hinted that Gonzales
might quit before the Senate holds its no-confidence vote this week.
With the primary just a day away, the GOP candidates who are behind in the media polls -- ex-Rep. Anne Northup and businessman Billy Harper -- are both disputing the notion that incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher has a double-digit lead. The Northup folks claim they are only behind by single digits. If Fletcher does not get more than 40%, he'll face a runoff, but most polling has had Fletcher over 40%.
This very reliable Nebraska political blog has more scoop about Bob Kerrey's potential return to the Senate. We're only highlighting because we've heard the same speculation. The Kerrey-for-Senate rumors are very real, but only if Chuck Hagel decides NOT to seek re-election.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The the White House today rejected a Democratic proposal to give the president waivers that set timelines for troop withdrawal. After negotiating this morning with congressional leaders, White House chief of staff Josh Bolten said the waivers on timelines "are not a significant distinction. Whether waive-able or not, timelines send exactly the wrong signal to our adversaries, to our allies, and most importantly to the troops in the field."
Instead, the Administration endorsed a benchmark proposal offered this week by GOP Sen. John Warner. That measure ties reconstruction money to the Iraqi government's requirement to meet political, security, and economic benchmarks -- with waivers. It also requires the president to report on Iraq's progress towards meeting those benchmarks in July and September.
The Senate took a symbolic vote on the Warner amendment Wednesday, 52-44. All but three Republicans supported it, along with seven moderate Democrats. The Administration latched onto it as the way forward in negotiations. "It's the only proposal in this area of Iraq language that achieved a truly bipartisan majority," Bolten said.
Before that vote, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid blasted the Warner proposal as weak. "If you looked in the dictionary under 'weak,' the Warner amendment would be listed right under it," Reid told Warner on the Senate floor.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
After meeting with White House officials this morning, congressional Democratic leaders say the Administration rejected two offers for a new war-funding bill.
President Bush said he vetoed the initial funding bill because 1) it set timelines for withdrawal and 2) it was loaded down with billions in non-war related domestic spending.
Today, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi said they offered the Administration two alternatives. The first was to strip the non-war spending from the original bill. But the Democrats said the White House rejected that. The second alternative was the first -- plus giving Bush a waiver on the timeline for troop withdrawal. Democrats said the White House rejected that offer, too.
Pelosi said in news conference after the meeting that Bush "will not accept accountability or responsibility for what has happened here [in Iraq]."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The White House describes the Senate's call for a "no confidence" vote next week on Attorney General Alberto Gonzales as "just another political stunt." And it further regards the vote as the "bottom-less bag of tricks the Democrats in the Senate pull out every week" on Gonzales.
White House advisers acknowledge that "this has been a difficult period." And on the six GOP senators who have called for Gonzales to step down, the White House says, "There are senators who have differing views."
Officials maintain that "it is important for any public official to have the confidence of Congress," but that confidence "ebbs and flows." And the White House again affirmed President Bush's full confidence in the attorney general.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Border Games: Yesterday's Senate agreement on immigration throws the issue back into the center of the political ring, especially on the GOP side. Immigration is to the Republican base what Iraq is to the Democratic one. But the key difference is that unlike the Democrats on Iraq, the GOP candidates are split on immigration. There are those who support comprehensive immigration reform (McCain, Giuliani, Brownback and Huckabee), and those who don’t (Romney, Tancredo, and Hunter).
*** Good News for McCain? So how comfortable was McCain standing next to Ted Kennedy during the press conference announcing the deal? Yet his troubles with the GOP base on the issue might not be as severe as CW suggests. For starters, the deal is now done -- and it's done before the summer. Now when criticized, McCain can simply say, "Let's wait and see if this works. Give the bill a chance" (which is similar to what he said on the surge). Of course, the issue could once again crop up if the House passes its own bill this summer, and the Senate and House go to conference. Also, Romney is the only front-runner who can whack McCain on the issue, which he did at Tuesday’s debate. But Romney has his own problems as well (he once said he supported a path to citizenship and has employed illegal immigrants).
*** The Dems' Own Problems: Even though all of the Democratic presidential candidates support comprehensive immigration reform, don’t think the party is completely unified on the issue. The reason why Nancy Pelosi wants the White House to guarantee her 70 GOP House votes? Because comprehensive immigration reform is a political loser for some of the Democratic freshmen who beat Republican congressional incumbents last fall, like the three from Indiana and Health Shuler. Also note that the AFL-CIO isn’t crazy about the deal.
*** About to Throw His Hat into the Ring? Perhaps the most interesting release we received last night on the immigration bill was from Fred Thompson’s office. Said the candidate-in-waiting: “We should scrap this bill and the whole debate until we can convince the American people that we have secured the borders or at least have made great headway.” The simple act of sending the release signals a likelihood that Thompson is already acting like a candidate. There are now all sorts of organizational rumors floating around (from an exploratory announcement being imminent to key hires coming on board). The Thompson-for-president campaign is no longer months away -- instead think weeks, maybe days…
*** The Clinton Tag-Team: Want more proof of how aggressively Team Clinton is going after the African-American vote? Look no further than today's one-two punch -- with Bill addressing the South Carolina NAACP, and Hillary heading to New Orleans and the Ninth Ward. It comes, however, as Michelle Obama receives another flattering front-page profile, this time in the New York Times.
*** Life After Death? Just after Jerry Falwell’s death, Gingrich gives the commencement address at Falwell’s Liberty University on Saturday -- another sign that Falwell’s influence continues even after his death. By the way, the funeral is next week. Which candidates will be there?
*** On the Trail: Dodd holds a discussion on Iraq in Des Moines, IA and later appears on Bill Maher’s HBO show; Giuliani speaks in Orlando; McCain holds a media avail in Phoenix; Obama hosts a town hall in Rye, NH; Richardson, in Omaha, NE, delivers remarks at the Young Democrats of America Convention; and Romney fundraises in Atlanta and also holds an avail at the Georgia GOP convention.
Countdown to Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary: 4 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 84 days
Countdown to Iowa: 240 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 262 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 535 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 612 days
The Washington Post says yesterday’s Senate agreement on immigration “represents perhaps the last opportunity for President Bush to win a major legislative accomplishment for his second term, and it could become the most significant revision of the nation's immigration system in 41 years. Bush hailed the agreement as ‘one that will help enforce our borders, but equally importantly, it will treat people with respect.’”
The Wall Street Journal: “The compromise, though a breakthrough in cooperation between congressional Democrats and the White House, still faces a tough fight in both the Senate and the House. Democrats are generally sympathetic to easing the way for immigrants and can expect generous help from President Bush. But they will need dozens of votes from Republicans, who are deeply split between a business-friendly wing eager to provide employers with access to more immigrant labor and social conservatives who believe American culture is being diluted by too many foreigners.”
The Washington Times adds, “Whether it is enough to win on the Senate floor next week is in doubt. Support seemed to crumble even as the deal was announced. Conservative Republicans argued that the bill rewards illegal activity, while liberal Democrats said it is too draconian toward illegal aliens and too restrictive for future workers.”
CONTINUED >>
Here's a headline many thought they'd never see in the Washington Post: "Bush Open to Iraq Benchmarks." From the story: “In response to reporters' questions, Bush twice declined to rule out penalizing the Iraqis for failing to achieve goals aimed at economic and political reconciliation, a concept advanced on Capitol Hill not just by Democrats but also by many Republicans. White House aides privately have said such accountability measures are on the table in their negotiations with Congress.”
The New York Times notes that Obama took a shot at Bill Clinton’s comments that Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s positions on Iraq are essentially the same. Mr. Obama, of Illinois, was asked in an interview on MSNBC yesterday about Mr. Clinton’s point that the two senators have voted mostly the same way on Iraq. ‘Well, I suppose that’s true if you leave out the fact that she authorized it and supported it, and I said it was a bad idea,’ Mr. Obama said. ‘You know, that’s a fairly major difference.’”
For those that miss the Libby-Cheney-Plame story, the Washington Post writes that arguments over the merits on the civil case began in DC yesterday.
BIDEN: The Delaware senator yesterday sent letter to the network TV presidents, calling on them to have at least one of the DNC-sanctioned debates devoted solely on the Iraq war. “Clearly, you have the power to make this happen,” he said. “I urge you to make your debate an Iraq-specific debate and work with the candidates and the DNC to make that happen.”
CLINTON: The State previews Bill Clinton’s trip to South Carolina today. “When former President Clinton takes the stage at the NAACP event tonight, he will talk about global solutions to the AIDS epidemic; his initiatives through the New York-based William J. Clinton Foundation to reduce poverty; initiatives to reduce religious conflict; and his initiatives to refuel a renaissance of the African-American community, an event organizer said.”
EDWARDS: There's nothing like raising money from the trial lawyer community as a Democrat because it means Edwards can travel to some of the reddest states in America, like Utah.
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: NBC’s Huma Zaidi reports that Gingrich delivers the commencement address at Liberty University tomorrow -- just days after its founder's death. Jerry Falwell, who passed away on Tuesday, told his supporters in a March letter that he invited Gingrich to speak after the former House speaker confessed to Focus on the Family's James Dobson that he'd had an extra-marital affair while leading the charge against former President Bill Clinton for lying about his relationship with Monica Lewinksy. "I was pleased to hear Gingrich state: 'I've gotten on my knees and sought God's forgiveness,'" Falwell wrote. "I have been very impressed with the spiritual maturity of this man and am convinced that he has been honest and forthright in clarifying his past failings and his quest, as a Christian, for God's forgiveness."
In the letter, Falwell reminded his followers that Ronald Reagan posed a challenge to evangelicals because he had been divorced. "We wisely made allowance for God's forgiveness and America was the beneficiary of this historic champion," Falwell said of Reagan. He also noted that the invitation is not an endorsement of any sort -- just like Sen. John McCain's invitation last year was not.
The richer you are, the more likely you have an investment or two that would raise eyebrows. Both Edwards and Giuliani discovered they own stock in companies that do business on the wrong side of the Darfur issue.
A Research 2000 poll shows a very tight three-way race among the Democrats in Iowa, with Clinton edging Edwards 28%-26% and Obama lurking at 22%. The GOP caucus match-up is even tighter with McCain at 18%, Rudy at 17% and Romney at 16%. Fred Thompson checks in at 9% for fourth place. More telling? Obama, while third in the Dem caucus, is the strongest Dem in general election match-ups vs. McCain and Rudy. Clinton is the weakest of the three Dems.
Two Democratic Sens., Chuck Schumer and Dianne Feinstein, want to have a confidence vote on Gonzales in the Senate sometime next week. More GOP senators are pulling their support, including Norm Coleman (who is up for re-election in '08) and Olympia Snow.
The New York Times: “In addition, Senator Pat Roberts, Republican of Kansas, said Mr. Gonzales’s resignation should now be considered a possibility. ‘When you have to spend more time up here on Capitol Hill instead of running the Justice Department, maybe you ought to think about it,’ Mr. Roberts said… And Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, who has not called for Mr. Gonzales’s dismissal, came closer to saying that he was finished. ‘I have a sense that when we finish our investigation, we may have the conclusion of the tenure of the attorney general,’ Mr. Specter said at a meeting of the committee on Thursday.”
Now that Wolfowitz is out of the way as a political problem for the White House, one has to assume the Powers That Be will now focus on the Gonzales situation. He's already survived longer than many people assumed.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Against the backdrop of the Capitol Dome, three Democratic candidates for the presidency wooed the labor vote this afternoon at a rally of transportation union workers on the National Mall. Flight attendants and railroad mechanics were among those assembled to hear overtures from Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Dennis Kucinich -- who each assailed the Bush Administration's treatment of middle-class workers. Biden, a favorite of union groups who's invited attendees at similar events to "grab a beer" with him, declared that he'd be "the best friend labor ever had" in the White House. Clinton, with a nod to the mobilizing power of organized labor, urged voter registration. She only briefly touched on the issue of the war, while her two rivals used the picturesque setting to pump the specifics of their proposals for Iraq.
Kucinich also courted workers' interests hard, saying he would "put labor's flag right on the White House lawn." But he earned his biggest applause by reiterating his impeachment threat to the Vice President. "And I challenge all other candidates to say the same thing," he declared.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic Sens. Chuck Schumer and Dianne Feinstein say they will seek to have the Senate take a "no confidence" vote on Attorney General Alberto Gonzales next week.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Now that Clinton and Obama are on the record for backing the defeated Feingold-Reid measure -- which would have cut off most funding for the Iraq war by March 2008 -- it's worth taking a stroll down memory lane to the fall of 2003. Back then, Howard Dean and his anti-war message had all the momentum in the Democratic nomination race. And following Dean's lead, both John Kerry and John Edwards voted against an $87 billion war-funding bill in the Senate.
Of course, that vote came back to haunt Kerry when he famously said in March 2004: “I actually voted for the $87 billion before I voted against it.” (What Kerry was referring to was that he voted against the legislation after voting for a similar $87 billion measure that would have repealed tax cuts for the rich to pay for that amount of spending.)
Could Clinton's and Obama's support for Feingold-Reid also come back to haunt them in a general election? There is the similarity that Dodd championing the measure obviously pushed the Democratic front-runners to cover their left flank and also support it. But did they just back something that their Republicans could use against them for denying money to the troops?
There is one big difference between 2003 and now, however: Support for the Iraq war isn't the same as it was back then.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate has passed its version of the war-spending bill. Now the heavy lifting begins -- writing a bill that funds the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that President Bush will sign.
The House and Senate negotiators will now start their closed-door negotiations to combine their two separate bills into one. That new bill will have to then be resubmitted to the House and Senate and passed again before being sent to the White House.
Because Bush has already vowed to veto the House version, the pressure is on Senate negotiators influence the process. The Democratic and Republican Senate leaders have said they will get a bill to Bush that he can sign, and they are trying to get it done before May 25th, the start of the weeklong Memorial recess. Majority Leader Harry Reid has threatened to keep the Senate in session through the recess to finish the bill.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Cursed: When outgoing British Prime Minister Tony Blair stands next to Bush at their joint press availability today, he'll be another stark reminder of how those who have backed the Iraq war have paid a steep political price for it. Besides Blair, whose popularity has tumbled in Britain, others who come to mind include McCain, five GOP senators voted out of office last fall (Allen, Burns, DeWine, Santorum, and Talent), and even Lieberman (who lost his primary and had to leave his party to keep his job). In fact, can anyone name a politician whose political standing has IMPROVED due to his/her support for the war? We can't.
*** It’s Not Easy Being in Control: On the other hand, congressional Democrats have been paying their own price in the court of public opinion for their singular focus on Iraq. While Iraq is the No.1 issue, their lack of any progress on ending the conflict -- or convincing the president to come to their side, no matter how hard that is -- does make the party look ineffective. And then there's the fact that Iraq has consumed the rest of their agenda. Democrats need to figure out how they are going to look like they are focusing on other issues, and they need to figure it out soon.
*** Just Asking: Another random thought: If the United Kingdom decided it wasn't appropriate for Prince Harry to serve in Iraq, given the added danger he and his fellow soldiers could come under, will the same be true for presidential nominees and their children? Of the Big Six, potential nominee John McCain has a son who is serving.
*** One Step Forward, One Step Back? Speaking of the war, did anyone else notice Clinton equivocating a bit on her support for Feingold-Reid? Per the New York Times, “When asked whether she supported the notion of cutting off financing for major combat operations next spring, Mrs. Clinton declined to say yes or no. ‘I’m not going to speculate on what I’ll be voting on in the future,’ she told reporters Wednesday. ‘I voted in favor of cloture to have a debate, and we were successful.’ Five hours later, as she walked into the Senate chamber, Mrs. Clinton sought to clarify her remarks.”
*** G-L-A-M-O-R-O-U-S: Well, the candidates’ financial-disclosure forms are out, and most of them are rich -- or really rich. Some highlights: Obama is the poorest of the Big Six (but still a millionaire), Edwards earned nearly $500,000 in salary from that hedge fund (which also manages about $7 million of his investments), and Rudy has made A LOT of money since his days at New York mayor.
*** "Rudy is Wrong": The day after Giuliani's well-received debate performance, Brownback's South Carolina chairman sends out this email: “Unfortunately one of the current front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination, Rudy Giuliani, is a vocal and unapologetic supporter of the ‘right’ to abortion. He made this clear once again in the South Carolina debate last night…This is NOT the time to turn back in our efforts to make America a country that respects life. As Republicans, we should not compromise or apologize for that.” Is this just another example of the social-conservative minefield Rudy has to cross to win the nomination?
*** Cover Boy: Gore’s on the cover of Time. Translation: a week of hyperventilating grade "B" punditry speculating about Gore '08. Face it folks, Gore knows 2008 rumors help sell books. Let's not get carried away. Gore's not running. He's said it numerous times (with caveats of course). But realistically, there's no room for Gore, as long as Obama and Edwards are viable alternatives to Hillary. Now if one of those two anti-Hillarys starts to fade...
*** On the Trail: Brownback travels to Michigan for a keynote address to the 11th District Republicans, while Giuliani and McCain are in New York to address the New York GOP State Committee On the Dem side, Clinton and Biden address the International Association of Machinists during their "Transportation Day of Action" rally on the National Mall in DC. Biden then goes to Iowa, joining Dodd, where both candidates will speak at the Dubuque Democrats Hall of Fame Dinner. Edwards heads to Atlanta to address the Georgia Democrats at the party's annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. And Richardson rolls out his energy plan to the New American Foundation in Washington DC.
Countdown to Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary: 4 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 85 days
Countdown to Iowa: 241 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 263 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 536 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 613 days
The AP writes about Blair’s US visit. “Blair's resignation will … remove Bush's most reliable international partner at a time that the White House is cultivating other ties in Europe, particularly with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Though Blair continues to praise his relationship with Bush, the friendship has played a big part in his downfall. In an interview with NBC News on Tuesday, Blair said he got used to a "very intense" level of criticism over Britain's participation in the Iraq war, and he praised Bush's leadership. ‘I have found him immensely straightforward to deal with, someone who is always true to his word, and someone who is a very strong leader,’ Blair said.”
It is fascinating to watch the presidential candidates who have votes in Congress handle this issue. Four years ago, it was the Democratic presidential candidates regularly splitting on how they would vote on certain key Iraq issues. This time, the Democratic candidates are voting in unison, the Boston Globe says. But now the GOP candidates are showing some signs of potentially splintering.
The New York Times covers yesterday’s Senate defeat of Feingold-Reid. “The 67-to-29 vote against the proposal demonstrated that a significant majority of Senators remained unwilling to demand a withdrawal of forces despite their own misgivings and public unease over the war.”
CONTINUED >>
As we reported yesterday, half of the front-runners (McCain, Clinton and Romney) filed for extensions with the Federal Election Commission, but that means half did file their paperwork on time (Obama, Edwards and Giuliani). Here's what we learned:
--Obama may be the "poorest" of the Big Six, but he's a millionaire now (thanks to his books).
-- Giuliani earned nearly $1 million a month by simply speaking. His personal wealth has skyrocketed since he left his mayoral office. He went from personal assets of under $2 million to assets between $20M-70M. That's right -- candidates can actually put a range THAT large on these forms. Without tax returns, it is very difficult to get the full picture for any candidate. Only Obama has released his full tax return.
-- Edwards earned just under a half million dollars in salary from that hedge fund he worked for. While that's not a lot of money for Edwards, it is a lot of money for most of the folks he's trying to earn support from. Also, the hedge fund, Fortress Investment Group, manages over $7 million of Edwards' investments.
-- As for the rest of the field, Richardson, Brownback, Dodd, Hunter, and Tancredo all reported assets of potentially more than $1 million. Only Huckabee and Biden are not millionaires.
CONTINUED >>
As predicted in First Read yesterday, the McCain-Romney spat during Tuesday's debate was not an isolated incident. This rivalry is now fully engaged as the two vie to become the alternative to Giuliani. Said McCain chief strategist John Weaver, according to the Washington Post: ""We'd like nothing better than for all the campaigns to run on their positive agendas for the future. Governor Romney and his Boston advisers believe they can't win with that. So be it. But if they think they can misrepresent John McCain's record with impunity, then they'd better buckle up their chinstraps.’”
BROWNBACK: Here’s more from the email Brownback’s South Carolina chairman sent out yesterday on Giuliani’s pro-choice position: "My friend, Rudy is wrong. Like you and me, Senator Brownback is a true believer that there is no ‘choice’ involved in life-or-death matters - we must always stand up for protecting innocent human life. Senator Brownback believes that the next Republican nominee for President must be pro-life in order to win - we must stand by our principles and bedrock foundation as a party."
GIULIANI: Per the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “‘The issue of abortion didn't come up at an Atlanta town hall session Wednesday, but former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani fielded questions about the flat tax and immigration — two other controversial questions among Republicans.’”
CONTINUED >>
Five of the top six Democrats will attend the June 2 Iowa Hall of Fame dinner in Des Moines. Next to the J-J Dinner, it's the biggest party dinner of the year. The only major candidate not attending now: Obama. Biden is the latest to fix his schedule to make sure he shows.
BIDEN: The Miami Herald reports that Biden “came to South Florida to make his pitch for an endorsement from the AFL-CIO, known for putting 'boots' on the ground to get the vote out. Most of the Democratic contenders have received high marks for supporting labor's agenda, including a higher minimum wage and protections for Social Security. Biden attracted half as many people as his semi-celebrity rival, Barack Obama, drew two days ago to a similar AFL-CIO event in New Jersey. But the six-term senator told about 300 union members that if he is elected president, he would be the best friend to labor since Franklin Delano Roosevelt.”
CLINTON: Almost all of the major television networks, including some international ones, sent camera to Clinton's event on Capitol Hill yesterday, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum reports. But she made no mention of the news that day: the Iraq vote. Instead, she was there solely to commemorate Asian Pacific American Heritage month, which is important considering that many of the states that have moved up their primaries have a large concentration of Asian Americans or Pacific Islanders (AAPI), including California. Clinton told the crowd, "We're here in part because we want to celebrate the Asian Pacific American Heritage month. And what better time than that to have all of you come together to talk about this campaign."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times’ Leibovich does a fun piece on how all of the major candidates have eliminated huge chunks of their personal and professional history from their campaign. Things like McCain not talking about "McCain-Feingold" and Giuliani's failure to include info on his children on his campaign web site, to Romney not referring to Massachusetts as his home and the lack of inclusion of Edwards' Senate career.
The
Washington Post front-pages that there were more US attorneys that were considered for termination -- about a quarter of all of them -- despite the fact that Gonzales said there were only the eight.
The
New York Times reports on the Democrats’ congressional budget agreement. “House and Senate Democratic leaders reached agreement on Wednesday on a $2.9 trillion budget for 2008 that envisions a return to budget surpluses by 2012 and assumes that some of President Bush’s tax cuts will be allowed to expire. The five-year blueprint, which is primarily a declaration of basic principles, represents a broad alternative to President Bush’s agenda. It calls for more money for children’s health care, education and a wide variety of other domestic programs.”
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumAlmost all of the major television networks, including some international ones, sent a camera to Hillary Clinton's event by the hill today ... but she made no mention to the news of the day ... the Iraq vote. Instead, she was there solely to commemorate Asian Pacific American Heritage month ... which is important to Clinton considering many of the states who have moved up their primaries have a large concentration of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPI), including California whose population is 12-percent AAPI. Clinton told the crowd, "We're here in part because we want to celebrate the Asian Pacific American Heritage month. And what better time than that to have all of you come together to talk about this campaign."
In a month of numerous public endorsement being made, and just one week after an endorsement from Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Irish Americans, Clinton accepted an endorsement from Rep. Doris Matsui (D-CA) and Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. This gathering, like the one for the Rep.Neal endorsement, was smaller in comparison to most of Clinton's other campaign events. She took advantage of the intimate setting to briefly speak or shake hands with most of the people present.
Matsui praised Clinton for her active outreach and support of the AAPI community. "She knows us. We will always have a seat at her table." Clinton later responded, saying she wants to attract all voters from different groups. "We just keep making that table bigger. Because we want a campaign that looks like America. Just like when I am president, we will have a White House and administration that includes the best talents of Americans."
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumOne week after launching a text messaging drive, the Clinton campaign uses new technology once again to involve voters. This time, the campaign is asking the American public to help pick Clinton's official campaign song. Taking a page from Obama's playbook (remember Monday Night Football?), Clinton appears in a video, talking seriously about "one of the most important questions of this campaign" she's "been struggling with."
The important issue -- what the American public thinks her campaign song should be. Clinton asks viewers to go to her website to vote. The ballot: U2's "City of Blinding Lights," KT Tunstall's "Suddenly I See," Smash Mouth's "I'm a Believer," The Temptations' "Get Ready," Dixie Chicks' "Ready to Run," Shania Twain's "Rock This Country!," U2's "Beautiful Day," Jesus Jones' "Right Here, Right Now," and The Staple Singers' "I'll Take You There." Voters can listen to each song on Hillary Clinton's website and they also have the option of writing in a different choice.
The video ends with Clinton poking fun at herself. After showing a clip of her singing the Star Spangled Banner, Clinton promises to never sing in public -- unless she wins. The video is featured on Clinton's website and will also be on YouTube's "You Choose '08 Spotlight" next week.
Voting ends next week. The winner will be announced shortly thereafter. Our question: Will the Dixie Chicks be allowed to win? BTW, this announcement has already spawned some satire from the right. The Club for Growth blog has their
own suggestions. But we're guessing that all publicity on something like this is good publicity for the campaign.
From NBC's Mark MurrayCOLUMBIA, SC -- Just a few hours before last night's GOP presidential debate, RNC chairman Mike Duncan sat down with First Read and a handful of other political reporters to discuss various topics (like the debate, Jerry Falwell's death, and even this year's gubernatorial contests). But the issue that dominated the discussion -- the party's penalties for states that move up their primaries too early -- could wind up being a very large headache for the presidential candidates and reporters covering them.
Duncan explained that any state that holds its primaries outside a window from Feb. 5 to July 28 would lose half its delegates to the convention. What's more, any state that moves outside that window after the RNC's Call to Convention -- which could come any date after Sept. 4 -- would lose 90% of its delegates.
So how would that impact the presidential race? Say that Giuliani, just to pick a name, wins delegate-rich Florida overwhelmingly. But because Florida seems destined to have its primary BEFORE Feb. 5 -- and would get penalized for that -- Giuliani would wind up with fewer delegates who could vote for him at the convention. And if the GOP fight for the nomination is close, the loss of those delegates COULD end up being what decides the race.
During the Q&A with Duncan, there seemed to be the possibility that the eventual GOP presidential nominee could instruct the party to restore the delegates to any state that moves up its primary, especially if the race for the nomination winds up being a blowout. But Duncan insisted that he would enforce the penalties.
From NBC's Mark MurrayCOLUMBIA, SC -- This afternoon, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) gave the opening speech to kick off the Republican National Committee's state chairmen's meeting here, where he rallied the assembled GOP troops and tried to impart "pearls of wisdom" as his party tries to reclaim Congress and keep control of the White House.
But he started off with a dig at the Democratic presidential front-runners. Repeating something he said he heard at a recent GOP dinner, Sanford told a joke involving Obama, Clinton, and Edwards in a plane flying above America's heartland. Obama, he said, wished he could drop a $1,000 bill from the sky to make one person happy. Clinton tried to out-do him by proposing to drop 10 $100 bills to make 10 people happy. And Edwards said he wanted to drop 100 $10 bills to make 100 people happy.
After the pilot heard the three Democrats say this, Sanford said, the pilot remarked that he wished he could drop three people from the sky "and make 150 million Americans happy." Ouch.
After the joke, Sanford said it was important for the party -- as it heads into 2008 -- to be united in its core beliefs. Although he said it wasn't personal, he singled out Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) and his infamous "Bridge to Nowhere" for sending "confusing signals" to voters when other Republicans are trying to cut federal spending.
Sanford also looked back at his party's midterm losses last year. "Our party took a beating back in November," he said. But: "Getting beat once is never the end of the story."
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumA new Zogby telephone poll from yesterday shows Romney comes out as the big winner, even though on pure numbers, Giuliani, McCain, and Romney are performing at similar levels, with 18, 18 and 19-percent. It is telling to notice that in January, Romney had only 5-percent of the votes and his poll numbers have almost doubled since March (11%) and quadrupled since January. This puts the frontrunner status of Giuliani in question. While in January he had similar numbers of 19-percent, in March he had 25-percent of the votes, before dropping back to his January levels in May. Giuliani's stance on abortion among conservative voters may be hurting his chances.
One caveat on all Iowa polling, it can be erratic because many pollsters don't spend enough money screening for caucus goers. That said, to get a result like this is something Romney will use to bolster his claims that there aren't two frontrunners, but three.
Even better news for Romney, he also holds the lead in New Hampshire's Zogby poll. As for McCain, he remains steady in this Iowa poll, staying within two percentage points since January. Huckabee, who performed well at the debate last night, has 2-percent of the vote; Tommy Thompson has 4-percent and undeclared candidate Fred Thompson received 9-percent while Brownback has 2-percent and Tancredo has 3-percent. 22-percent still remain undecided.
On the other side of the aisle, Edwards continues to have the lead over Clinton and Obama. Edwards has remained steady at 26-27-percent since January, enjoying the support from union households to keep him in the lead. Clinton and Obama, on the other hand, have continued to stay up from their January numbers but have dropped a percentage point each since March. Clinton currently has 24-percent of the votes, down from 25 in March but up from 16 in January. Obama has similar numbers, 17 in January, 23 in March, and 22 in May. While Edwards attracts a majority of the moderate voters, Clinton has more support from the liberal and very liberal groups. Obama's support comes from all three groups. One interesting jump is Richardson, currently at 6-percent, up from just one-percent in January. Biden remains at a steady 3-4-percent. 16-percent of Democrats are currently undecided.
From NBC's Carrie DannWith the president's approval ratings hovering around an all-time low mark, "Bush" might be turning into a four-letter word to the men who are eyeing his job. During last night's debates, the only mention of the president by name came from party outlier Ron Paul. And it wasn't for a lack of opportunities; FOX moderators Wallace, Hume, and Goler uttered the B-word in their questioning at least eight times. As our First Writers noted, the candidates' comments on the president last night were tepid at best, with the only notable voice of support on an administration policy coming from Mitt Romney (who sang the praises of Bush's No Child Left Behind Act.) Tally in Duncan Hunter's "case of 'the slows'" line on border security and a chorus of outrage over inside-the-Beltway spending from the three frontrunners, and you've got a net negative for the Oval Office.
Compare the treatment of the president last night versus at the MSNBC debates two weeks ago. In Simi Valley, each of the three top-tier guys had something nice to say about Bush. Giuliani said that he "made the right decision at the right time" in the wake of 911, and Romney gushed that he "respect[s] the president's character, his passion, his love for this country." And in both debates, McCain characteristically plugged Bush's comprehensive immigration plan, but last night he stopped short of saying that he's "proud" to be collaborating with the White House.
Worth keeping an eye on: how Huckabee - who's getting a lot of buzz this morning about a possible bump from two solid debate performances - negotiates his talk about Dubya. Recall that in California, he declined to assign Bush a letter grade for his performance in office. But last night, he gave a diplomatic critique of Bush's famous directive to go shopping in the wake of 911. "I think that was a good thing to say," said Huckabee, "but it may have been interpreted by the American people as business as usual. The problem is: It'll never, ever be business as usual when you attack innocent Americans on our soil."
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Three Quick Takes: Last night’s debate will ultimately be known for two things: the moment Giuliani became comfortable on stage and the start of the more public rivalry between McCain and Romney. If the debate is known for a third thing, it will be the move of Mike Huckabee from the second tier to the bottom of the first tier, but that depends on if he begins putting as much energy in building his campaign organization as he does in presenting himself in front of a camera.
*** Not a Good Night for Bush: Also, it shouldn’t be lost on observers just how bad these debates are for President Bush. No one attempted to openly defend his policies by name -- and if anything, many tried very hard to find differences. And remember, this was a friendly Bush audience (FOX News viewers). Ouch
*** Giuliani: He seemed much more prepared for this debate than for the first one. The Ron Paul throwdown will be the TV moment that gets replayed for days, and that alone may give Rudy the "win" in the long term. He deflected every veiled attack with humor, and seemed for the first time to embrace his status as the front-runner. But we have to admit: the on-again/off-again glasses thing was a bit distracting.
*** McCain: If this were a boxing match, we probably would have scored it for McCain on points over the other rivals. He deftly handled every critique and was much more animated than in the first debate where, while still solid, he came across a bit "hot" for TV. Not last night. Romney clearly attempted to bait McCain into a temper moment, and the senator jabbed back without snapping. McCain was only missing a Rudy like made-for-TV-rerun moment.
*** Romney: While starting out strong (his anti-Washington screed was the first time we could picture a GOP candidate actually standing for "change" in '08), he suffered as the debate wore on. He wasn't helped by the questions, which were tougher on him in comparison to the frontrunners. Still, grace under pressure is supposed to his strong suit. The McCain jab came out of nowhere and might not have played out as the campaign hoped. One might have waited until the fall to unveil that line. Also, he didn't look presidential asking for time to respond to Paul AFTER Rudy had his moment.
*** Huckabee: Once again, the ex-governor is proving to be one of the field's better performers. He's got a sharp wit (joke line of the night was his Edwards shot) and is both plain-spoken and smooth. We haven't seen that combination since another Arkansas governor was running for president. But he's so organizationally behind, it's hard to imagine how he takes advantage of his second-straight solid debate performance.
*** The Rest: Tancredo and Thompson were probably the most improved of the second tier from Debate One to Debate Two. For Thompson, that's not saying much; for Tancredo, it is. Gilmore served the moderators well by finally naming names, but it wasn't a very presidential moment for him. Hunter and Brownback just never seemed like a part of the debate; they didn't blow any questions, but they just never had a chance to stand out. And then there's Paul. His folks know how to hijack more than just our blog comments. They did a number on FOX's text messaging which visibly irritated Hannity. Giuliani's camp may hire out Paul for the campaign trail -- he could be the Washington Generals to Rudy's Globetrotters.
*** It's Iraq Day: There’s no other way to put it. Bush's naming of a war czar should dominate the news cycle for a day or two, as will Tony Blair’s visit to the White House. But politically, the more significant event is the capitulation of Clinton and Obama on Feingold-Reid. Did Chris Dodd's 100-point TV ad buy intimidate the front-runners that quickly? It says something about the potency of Iraq in the Dem primary. What an amazing contrast with the GOP presidentials, who politically can't look anti-Iraq at all.
*** Falwell’s Passing: A few things to watch for: How many of the GOP ’08 candidates will attend his funeral or pay their respects in person as he lies in state? How many who-will-fill-the-vacuum stories will get written between now and the weekend. Fact is, Jerry Falwell beget Pat Robertson, who beget James Dobson. Who’s next?
The Washington Post writes, “The entire group appeared more relaxed and at ease than they were in their first meeting… And some of the most memorable moments were the lighter ones, as when former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee joked that the Congress had ‘spent money like John Edwards at a beauty shop,’ an allusion to reports that the Democratic candidate had paid $400 for a haircut. But the Republican candidates, who have to date reserved their toughest rhetoric for Democrats, engaged one another directly in ways they had not in the earlier debate or on the stump.”
The Wall Street Journal: “The 90-minute debate was punctuated, as was the first earlier this month at the Ronald Reagan Library in California, by paeans to the late president and hits at President Bush. The candidates took swipes at Mr. Bush for not being tougher on China over trade and currency exchange rates; the budget deficit and spending; and mismanagement of the Iraq war. On immigration, California Rep. Duncan Hunter said, ‘This administration has a case of the 'slows' on border enforcement.’
USA Today reports that the “sharpest exchange came between former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and John McCain. Romney said he feared McCain would do for immigration what the Arizona senator's campaign-finance law has done for politics and money - ‘and that's bad.’ McCain … shot back that he has consistently favored limits on money in politics and opposed abortion: ‘I haven't changed my position in even-numbered years because of the position that I may be running for.’”
CONTINUED >>
NBC’s Ken Strickland says the Senate, starting about 10:30 am ET today, will vote on four Iraq proposals. They include a measure from Republican John Warner requiring US troop withdrawal if the Iraqi government calls for it, as well as the highly contentious Feingold-Reid bill that cuts most war funding in March. While these items may substantive in content, the votes have no practical effect on altering the course of the Iraq war. The reason: The proposals are being voted as amendments to a bill that has nothing to do with the war, but instead fund national water projects. And even if one of the amendments achieved the 60 votes required for passage, it's highly unlikely they would survive as part of a water bill. These are considered "test votes" that would serve only as barometers of support while putting senators on the record with a roll call vote.
Among the GOP bills, the Warner proposal ties reconstruction money to the Iraqi government's requirement to meet political, security, and economic benchmarks -- which could be waived by the president if he chooses. The other amendment, offered by Sen. Thad Cochran, is non-binding and simply states the need to have the war-funding bill signed by the president before Memorial Day.
On the Democratic side, Strick says, the Feingold-Reid proposal would stop troop funding on March 31, 2008, with exceptions for fighting Al Qaeda, force protection, and training Iraqi forces. The other amendment is Reed-Levin, which sets a "goal" of withdrawing most troops by the same date, but would also grant the president a waiver on the timelines for any reduction of US forces.
CONTINUED >>
Among the Democratic candidates, Biden is in Florida, where he participates in one of the AFL-CIO’s town halls, and Clinton holds an event in DC to celebrate Asian Pacific American Heritage Month.
For those licking their chops in anticipation of combing through the personal-financial disclosure forms -- which were due over at the FEC yesterday -- you'll have to wait for as much as 45 days. Romney, McCain, and Clinton are among the major candidates to ask the FEC for an extension. These candidates now have 45 extra days to submit the necessary paperwork. As for the other major candidates, a few decided to turn everything in on time (including Giuliani and, apparently, Edwards). But before their reports are made public, the FEC lawyers look through the filing to make sure everything was filled out properly. Apparently, if a campaign makes a glaring error on the form, the FEC lawyers give the candidate a second chance before disclosing that error to the public. Trust us, folks, this is not a cut-and-dried process.
Dodd is joining Obama as one of the few candidates to release some of his tax return, in addition to his presidential and Senate financial-disclosure forms.
CONTINUED >>
OK, we're putting Gonzales back over an open flame. This Ashcroft incident is just fascinating. Once again, we're waiting for a Democrat to admit that they long for the days of the Ashcroft Justice Department.
USA Today writes, “Then-White House counsel Alberto Gonzales made a late-night hospital visit in 2004 to pressure critically ill Attorney General John Ashcroft to approve President Bush's controversial domestic spying program, a Senate panel was told Tuesday. Speaking publicly about the incident for the first time, former deputy attorney general James Comey said he had rejected the program because Ashcroft and top aides had questioned its legality.”
While this Gonzales angle to the John Ashcroft-wiretapping story has nothing to do with the US attorney controversy, one can't help but wonder if the leaking of the story was designed to gently remind Gonzo that he may have to go.
In an effort to give negotiations more time to reach an agreement on an immigration reform bill, NBC’s Strickland reports that Senate leaders have decided to delay a highly anticipated vote to Monday. The vote, originally scheduled for Wednesday, is a procedural one that determines whether the Senate will start debate on the bill. It requires 60 votes to proceed.
Announcing the change on the Senate floor late Tuesday night, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said after talking to some of the negotiators, "They're 80% of the way [there]... the other 20% is hard." Pushing the vote back clears the deck for the Senate to tackle other high-priority items, including the war-funding bill, a budget resolution, and the water resources bill (which happens to include four Iraq related votes Wednesday morning). "It would be different if we had nothing else to do," Reid said.
The New York Times writes about the Senate negotiations over the bill. “Even as Democrats made concessions to Republicans adamantly opposed to any kind of amnesty, they risked alienating longtime supporters of the Democratic Party, including labor unions and Hispanic groups that wanted legislation tilted more toward the rights of immigrants.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
A young man just handed us a flier with Fred Thompson's picture on it. "Coming Soon To A Primary Near You..." it says. "The Right Person. The Right Time."
The flier comes from the Draft Fred Thompson 2008 Committee. Very interesting...
From NBC's Mark Murray
Early on, the GOP candidates went after the low-hanging fruit: the Democrats. Huckabee made a crack at John Edwards' expensive haircut, while Giuliani criticized Hillary Clinton (although he didn't mention her by name). But -- finally! -- the candidates began to engage each other. As Chuck mentioned, the barbs between Romney and McCain were probably the highlight of the night. But Giuliani's tough shot at Paul -- which was followed by Tancredo's own shot at Paul -- also proved that these weren't the gun-shy candidates we saw two weeks ago.
So much for Reagan's 11th Commandment... I'm heading to the spin room...
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Giuliani and McCain looked and acted like the frontrunners tonight. They got opportunities to look presidential and seized the moments. Romney, after a great first debate, turned in a very mediocre performance. Part of his problem were the surprisingly tough questions he received from his inquisitors which seemed to throw him off. But there was something about him that just seemed less present on stage tonight. Maybe it was because he wasn't standing on the far left side of the stage, like McCain this time and Romney was in the first debate.
As for the rest of the field: Huckabee turned in another solid performance. Why again can't he catch financial fire? Tancredo also seemed to improve from his first performance. He actually had a few prepared lines and delivered them fairly well. Paul, as usual, was very eloquent in his positions; nobody has articulated the Libertarian positions as well as him in the GOP for a long time. Hunter, Thompson and Gilmore didn't seem on their games tonight. For Hunter, that's a change; he had a very good first debate; Thompson technically improved from his first performance but that's not saying much. Gilmore was a big part of this debate but his failure to stand behind his campaign trail attacks was a very weak moment for him.
From NBC's Mark MurrayRomney was just asked to name a policy shift he's made that MIGHT not be popular with the GOP base. Romney named his support for No Child Left Behind. (To be honest, we didn't know he supported it.)
From NBC's Mark MurrayFOX's Chris Wallace just asked Jim Gilmore why there's not a single female or minority on the stage tonight. Gilmore couldn't really answer the question.
From NBC's Chuck ToddCertain candidates have just disappeared tonight. Thompson and Hunter are two of those candidates. Neither have owned a moment. And, frankly, Brownback also has been less of a presence tonight than he was in the first debate.
From NBC's Mark Murray
McCain was just asked if a nuclear attack were coming, would he torture a prisoner to be able to stop it? McCain said this country shouldn't permit torture.
Giuliani said he'd give permission to use "any method they could think of." He then said he didn't support torture, but again added, "every method they could think of."
From NBC's Chuck ToddANOTHER commercial break? And then a warning to the candidates on the next question? Takes away from seeing just how quick they are on their feet and just how capable of handling a crisis they will be.
From NBC's Mark MurrayTancredo and Giuliani also hit Paul for his comments on the Middle East. Is he now going to be every GOPer's whipping boy at this debate?
From NBC's Chuck ToddWhy didn't the Fox crew ask the audience not to applaud? It's just a distraction.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Am I watching a rerun of the debate or did Ron Paul just get the same question he received an hour ago on Iraq?
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Hello!!! Romney takes the first frontrunner-to-frontrunner shot!
And McCain fights back... we have our lead... McCain and Romney start scrappin!
From NBC's Chuck ToddWith 30 minutes to go, the big winners tonight are looking like McCain and Giuliani. Both were given opportunities to look presidential thanks to the questions that allowed for the second tier guys to attack them. Both McCain and Giuliani have gotten to float above the attacks. Huckabee is proving that if he could have raised real money, he coulda been a contenda. Romney has not had a good first hour, thanks mostly to the very tough questions he's received.
From NBC's Mark MurrayRomney just said on abortion, "I've always been positively pro-life." But anyone who looks back at his record when he ran for the Senate in '94 and for governor in '02 knows that statement isn't true.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIf Giuliani had been talking the Libertarian line on abortion two weeks ago, he wouldn't have gotten himself into the pretzel he did since the "OK" heard 'round the conservative world.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBrownback's been "dinged" twice...
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Two of the three questions Romney has gotten so far have been somewhat directly about his flip-flops, that's got to make the Romney folks nuts and the rest of his opponents smile.
Update: Wow, that's now THREE straight questions for Romney about his flip flops. Team Romney must be upset.
From NBC's Mark MurrayAsked about some of the past bills with which he's worked with Democrats, McCain just cited Congress' low approval ratings and said, "They want us to work together."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Giuliani seems much more prepared tonight than he was for the first debate. Remember, this is now his second debate in the last 10 years and his second debate in the last 12 days...
From NBC's Mark Murray
Gilmore finally named names and singled out Giuliani for his pro-abortion views; Huckabee for his tax increases; and Romney for his health-care plan.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
My god... that was like pulling teeth out of Gilmore... look, if you are going to cast the stones then you better have the guts to stand behind your words in a forum like this
From NBC's Mark Murray
Gilmore just said that he studied the tape of the California debate two weeks ago, and he said that some of his GOP rivals weren't being honest, because they are "very liberal" on abortion and taxes. The moderator asked him, "Who?"
All Gilmore would say is that people should check out his Web site tomorrow.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Gilmore is such a wimp on this candidate attack stuff. He talks tough on his Webcasts and on the trail but we gave him an opportunity in our debate to hit the candidates and so did FNC's Goler and nothing from Gilmore. He's got a secret list of candidates he wants to attack? What's the point of being a long shot candidate if you don't toss a few Hail Marys when actual voters are watching?
From NBC's Chuck ToddAnyone else surprised that Ron Paul is the only candidate from president on either side criticizing the creation of the Homeland Security Dept? Watching that department get created hasn't been government's best moment so it could be ripe for attack.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI love being able to watch this debate at home. It means I can rewind and double check something. And what did I just double-check? To see if Giuliani wore his glasses in the first answer. I didn't think he did and he didn't. I wonder what he wanted to refer to in his notes and whether he realizes he forgot to take those glasses off.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHuckabee just became the second candidate to "hat tip" his opponent, John McCain. Rudy Giuliani was the first to agree with something McCain said. Not looking like a debate with all this agreement...
From NBC's Mark MurrayHuckabee: "Like John Edwards in a beauty shop," on out of control spending. Ouch. But he got boisterous applause from the audience.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
And Romney just took the second shot at Bush, though not by name. His argument for "fundamental change" and his attacks on Washington are clearly an attempt to show that a Republican candidate can utter a "change" message in an election that clearly appears to be a "change" environment.
Now there's the animated McCain the media knows and loves...
From NBC's Chuck ToddDid Mike Huckabee just take the first shot at Bush with his it takes more money to do something over again than it does to do it right?
From NBC's Mark Murray
Paul was just asked if he should be running for the Democratic nomination, since he supports withdrawal from Iraq, yet three-quarters of Republicans oppose that. Paul held firm: "The base of the Republican Party shrunk because of the war."
From NBC's Chuck ToddAnd let the record show that Ron Paul was the first candidate to bring up the name "Ronald Reagan."
From NBC's Chuck ToddLet the record show that Tom Tancredo was the first candidate to cite Pres. Bush... about 10 minutes in.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Early on, it's clear who's the enemy: the Democrats. Brownback just blasted Harry Reid for his "Iraq is lost" comment, and Giuliani also hit the Democrats on their Iraq policies.
Is it just me or is John McCain a little less "hot" and aggressive in this very first response? It's as if he took the critiques some had for his first debate performance to heart and decided to tone things down a bit. That will be noticed by lots of "style" critics.
There is a game show feel to this already thanks to the VERY long introductions and the "did you know" type bio additions being uttered by the moderator. The candidates should be happy, though, lots of extra face time.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Brit Hume just said no questions about Falwell tonight, since the candidates all weighed in already.
While Chuck is blogging several hundred miles away in DC, I'm here in Columbia -- but it feels like I'm still several hundred miles away. The press here (about 100+ of us) are watching the debate from four flat-screen TVs in a tent outside the debate site.
Not to nitpick about Fox' broadcast because I'm not one to cast stones, but shouldn't they not open up voting on their text-messaging "who won" poll for the debate AFTER the debate or at least 30 minutes into the debate? According to Hannity, voting begins right at 9 p.m., when the debate starts. Text-messaging polls are hardly good barometers, but at least give them some credibility by holding off on voting until 9:30 or later.
Good news: FNC is finally offering up some pre-game. Interview with Giuliani surrogate Ted Olson was a start. Why not start that coverage at 8?
So I'm sitting down ready to get geared up for the debate and I turn on the Fox News Channel, anxious for Bill O'Reilly's pre-game analysis. And what do I get... A clip show. That's right, FNC has not offered much live programming in this one hour warm-up, just Hannity and Colmes checking in to plug some old O'Reilly clip. Couldn't Bill do a live show today? Why didn't FNC actually do some pregame? Is the channel that fearful of competing against American Idol tonight?
Call me disappointed... I wanted some FNC punditry and got a clip show.
COLUMBIA, SC -- It's less than 30 minutes before kickoff -- and that's an apt metaphor, because the atmosphere outside the Koger Center is much like a football game.
Thousands of of people -- the anti-tax group Fair Tax say they have 7,000 alone -- are chanting for their favorite candidate, hollering, and banging cowbells. Game on.
***Update*** Readers, thanks for the clarification. I should have said anti-federal income tax group.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumCan you judge someone by the car he drives -- or at least pulls up in? For the debate, the GOP presidential candidates arrived in a variety of cars. McCain showed up in a more unique vehicle -- a large white van. Upon his arrival, a group of people piled out of the side door before McCain emerged. As for some of the other candidates, Huckabee and Hunter enjoyed their respective front seats, while Romney, Giuliani, and Brownback enjoyed the ride in the back -- in four-door sedans.
Another interesting note during these arrivals is which candidates brought their wives along. Romney, as expected, paraded his wife next to him and introduced her to colleagues. Giuliani did not show up with his wife. Neither did Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, or Thompson. Brownback seemed to enjoy the opportunity to introduce his wife to Huckabee.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
A senior Administration official tells NBC News that Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute has been selected to serve as Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Adviser for Iraq and Afghanistan Policy and Implementation.
National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley has been looking for candidates to bring to the President and Secretaries Gates and Rice. This job would report directly to the president with cabinet rank. It's much of what the National Security Adviser currently does, but aides say the need for one individual to focus exclusively on Iraq has become more evident to try to coordinate the policy between departments and between the US and Iraq.
COLUMBIA, SC -- Just a few hours before tonight's debate, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) sat down with NBC News to discuss his thoughts on the 2008 presidential race, his state's all-important primary, and his own political future. In response to his recently published op-ed in The Politico, in which he argued that federal spending under the GOP's watch had gotten out of control, Sanford stated that reining in spending is a "litmus test" for Republican and independent voters that hit on the broader themes of leadership and trust. While it's more difficult for a presidential candidate to display leadership on the tricky issues of national security and Iraq, he said, taxes and spending are "a lot easier to get your arms around."
Regarding the GOP's South Carolina primary, he said that there is one certainty he knows: "It will occur third." In addition, he noted that he's "struggling" with a proposal that would allow the state to help finance South Carolina's GOP and Democratic primaries. "I still got some heartburn" on that issue, he said -- observing that there are two schools of thought: 1) that the primaries help the economy and therefore the state should help fund them; and 2) that taxpayers shouldn't pay for a political party's contest. Sanford told NBC that he would make a decision on the proposal in the next week.
Sanford hasn't yet endorsed any GOP presidential contender, and he said he'd likely refrain making any endorsement in the lead up to South Carolina's primary. But he acknowledged that there is some truth to the polls showing that many Republicans voters aren't satisfied with their presidential choices. "The conservative base is still out there and looking, and they haven't locked onto one candidate yet."
There was some talk earlier this year that conservatives wanted Sanford to make a White House run. Will he? "It isn't where I am right now," he replied.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumAs the candidates continue to arrive in Columbia, SC for their walk-throughs of the debate stage, they are taking the opportunities to say a few words on Rev. Falwell.
McCain earlier issued a paper statement but told a more personal story on camera. "I'm particularly grateful personally Rev. Falwell reached out to me in spirit of Christian reconciliation. We healed our past differences and we worked together for the good of the country." More: "Rev. Falwell came to my office in Washington. He sat down in my chair in my office and said Senator McCain, I want to put our differences behind us. There are many things we can do for our country. I was proud to have that reconciliation. I'm even more grateful now."
Gov.
Jim Gilmore: "I've known Rev Falwell for most of my political life, my personal life. He was great American; he had missionaries all over the world trying to do good for humanity. He was a man of deep faith and I think he will be sorely missed not just in Virginia but in the United States."
Gov.
Tommy Thompson: "I'm sad. Jerry Falwell was a leader in his community, a leader in his church, a leader in education. He started the moral majority. He was a moving conservative and I think all of us, you know, are saddened by his sudden death." More: "He was a person that had strong convictions as everybody knows. He believed very strongly in his causes and his was not bashful about articulating them. I respect people that have the opportunity to speak their mind. He certainly did that and he had a clairvoyance, clarity in his thinking that was just, I think, outstanding."
And
Brownback has issued a paper statement: "Today, America has lost a true spiritual leader and a man of great faith in Jerry Falwell. His great words and actions will never be forgotten by the hundreds of thousands of people around the world that his life has touched. Jerry's moral character and principle will forever be remembered deep within my heart and those whose lives were so blessed to be touched by him."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Every major GOP candidate (and non-candidate) has now weighed in on Falwell. Fred Thompson's office issued this statement minutes ago:
“America has lost a man of great
faith, and a leader dedicated to defending the rights of all Americans to
express their faith in the public square. Jeri and I wish to extend out deepest
condolences to the Falwell family, and we will keep them in our
prayers.”
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumWell before the debate, the GOP candidates are commenting on Rev. Jerry Falwell. After his walk-through of the debate set-up, Giuliani expressed his condolences to Rev. Falwell's family. "He was a man who set a direction, he was someone who was not afraid to speak his mind. We all have great respect for him, whether you agree with him or disagree with him. He was a person who told you what he thought and knew where he stood."
Hunter called Falwell a great friend, recounting how Falwell helped him win when he first ran in 1980 in an overwhelmingly democratic district. "I've known him over the years. I've known him as a great voice for values, for morality. A real sense of goodness exuded from Jerry Falwell. I think Americans will remember him."
Huckabee also commented on Falwell. "The thing people probably didn't know about him was the incredible sense of humor he had, a big practical joker. He loved people. Often misunderstood, but he was a guy who truly had a tremendous passion for other people, all walks of life. Coming himself from very humble opinions, and never a person who took himself all that seriously. he took his calls and his mission and his commitment to Christ very seriously.
Romney declined comment but he issued a paper statement: "An American who built and led a movement based on strong principles and strong faith has left us. He will be greatly missed, but the legacy of his important work will continue through his many ministries where he put his faith into action. Ann and I have had the honor to talk and meet with Reverend Falwell and get to know him as a man of deep personal faith and commitment to helping those around him. He will be forever remembered."
From NBC's Mark MurrayCOLUMBIA -- After we finished interviewing South Carolina Republican Gov.
Mark Sanford (more on that later), we spotted several
Ron Paul supporters outside the statehouse handing out fliers and DVDs about Paul and his record. Across the street, in fact, was an RV -- decked out in red, white, and blue -- with the words "Ron Paul Revolution" on it.
When we opened up the DVD that one of the supporter handed out, the insert inside of it said: "Watch it, copy it, and pass it on. Our country DEPENDS on it."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Speaking of McCain and Falwell, McCain just released this statement: "I join the students, faculty, and staff of Liberty University and Americans of all faiths in mourning the loss of Reverend Jerry Falwell. Dr. Falwell was a man of distinguished accomplishment who devoted his life to serving his faith and country."
More: "Our thoughts and prayers are with Dr. Falwell's family at this difficult time."
From NBC's Mark Murray
COLUMBIA SC -- The news that TV evangelist Jerry Falwell passed away will obviously reverberate at tonight's GOP presidential debate. Remember that McCain, in his 2000 presidential bid, referred to Falwell and other evangelical leaders as "agents of intolerance." However, almost exactly a year ago, McCain delivered the commencement address at Falwell's Liberty University.
COLUMBIA, SC -- Well, we blogged earlier that Team
Romney was winning the sign war here outside the Koger Center. Well, they were -- before
McCain aides began planting signs everywhere.
From NBC's Mark Murray
COLUMBIA, SC -- There's another big difference between this debate and the one two weeks ago: It's how the non-FOX News media have been treated here. For starters, the media filing center didn't even have outlet cords for our laptops when we first got here (although that seems being taken care of as we speak).
But the more surprising treatment ocurred when we tried walking into the large, air-conditioned Koger Center to use one of the bathrooms. We were told that only FOX employees were allowed into the building, and that we'd have to use one of the port-a-potties outside. Nice.
***UPDATE*** Little more than an hour ago, a FOX person approached us to let us know there AREN'T port-a-potties for us to use, so we will be allowed to use the restrooms in the Koger Center. We have yet to try...
From NBC's Mark Murray
COLUMBIA, SC -- It is now less than nine hours until tonight's GOP presidential debate. The biggest difference so far between this one and the first one at the Reagan Library? It's all of the campaign signs that adorn the Kroger Center, where the debate is taking place.
There were no signs at Reagan Library, but that's not the case here, where the Romney camp seems to have the most signs, although there are some fairly large McCain ones.
But the signs that have caught our eyes are the ones that say "John Cox for President." John who? He's the Republican that tried to get included in tonight's debate, but no dice
Right now, the marquee Senate race of 2008 is in Minnesota, where comedian Al Franken is trying to unseat GOP Sen. Norm Coleman. A Mason-Dixon poll has Coleman sporting a healthy lead over Franken (54%-32%) despite the fact that Coleman's overall job rating is back under 50%.
Speaking of Senate races, Joe Lieberman not only is endorsing GOP incumbent Susan Collins (an incumbent being heavily targeted in 2008), he's now raising money for her.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** The GOP Debate, Part II: More often than not, a sequel can be a flop -- remember Speed 2 or Breakin' 2: Electric Boogaloo? -- but tonight's Republican debate presents some intriguing storylines. Has Giuliani fixed his abortion problem, or will a new round of questions (on Roe, when life begins, and his past opposition to partial-birth abortion bans) surface? What happens if Romney turns in a second-straight solid performance? (His campaign has a couple of organizational tools to capitalize.) Will McCain engage his rivals more than he did two weeks ago? Will Brownback and Huckabee be more aggressive on social issues? And will Tommy Thompson have plenty of time to go to the bathroom before the debate?
*** The Prodigal Party: On the eve of tonight’s debate, which begins at 9:00 pm ET, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) -- who hasn't yet endorsed anyone -- penned an op-ed in The Politico, arguing that federal spending has gotten out of control, especially under GOP rule. "Let's face it: My party, the Republicans, have been in control, and they have blown it when it comes to government spending," he wrote. “The people who are most aware of, and most outraged by, this are Republicans at the grass-roots level who I see and hear from every day. The candidate who can tap into their desire for leadership on this front … is the candidate who I think will win in South Carolina.” But looking at the polls and last year's midterms, does anyone think that spending is at the root of the GOP's problems?
*** A Mixed Bag for McCain: Heading into the debate, a poll by NBC affiliate WIS-TV shows McCain leading Giuliani (25%-20%), but with the highest unfavorable rating among the GOPers. Another interesting finding: Romney is fifth in the horserace -- behind Fred Thompson and Gingrich. Meanwhile, tied to tonight’s debate, the group VoteVets goes up with a new TV ad that singles out McCain.
*** Full Disclosure: On the same day as the debate, the presidential candidates’ financial disclosure reports come out. Questions reporters may have when combing through them: Where does Romney invest his millions? Did the Obamas cash in too quickly on their newfound fame? Where is Bill Clinton making is money? How much of John Edwards' wealth is being invested by the hedge fund that once employed him? Just how much money did Rudy Giuliani make off of 9/11? And is Obama the poorest front-runner?
*** Dodd's Time to Shine: It seems that Dodd will finally get his wish when the Senate, on Wednesday, takes up the Feingold-Reid measure he supports, which would cut off most funding for the war by March 31, 2008. How will Biden, Clinton, and Obama vote on it? And just in time for it, Dodd goes up with a new TV ad today -- in Iowa and New Hampshire - that stresses his opposition to the Iraq war. "Half measures won't stop this President from continuing our involvement in Iraq's civil war. That's why I'm fighting for the only responsible measure in Congress that would take away the President's blank check and set a timetable to bring our troops home,” he says in it. "Unfortunately my colleagues running for President have not joined me."
*** Looks Like He’s In: In yesterday’s unveiling of the network’s fall lineup next year, an NBC executive noted that Thompson would NOT be returning to "Law and Order," even though the program is coming back next January. Things that make you go, “Hmmmmm.”
*** On the Trail: As the Republican candidates assemble in South Carolina, Edwards holds a town hall in Des Moines, IA, and Obama returns to DC after spending yesterday in New Jersey.
On Wednesday, the Senate will hold at least two votes on amendments calling for US troop withdrawal from Iraq, NBC's Ken Strickland reports. While neither has much chance of passing, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he wanted to "give senators an opportunity to express their views on the president's Iraq policy."
One bill, Feingold-Reid, would stop troop funding on March 31, 2008 with exceptions for fighting Al Qaeda, force protection, and training Iraqi forces. The other amendment, Levin-Reid, calls for the goal of withdrawing most troops by the same date, but would also grant the president a waiver on the timelines for any reduction of US forces.
These will be procedural votes and require 60 "yeas" for passage -- which is highly unlikely for either. The amendments are not being offered on the must-pass war-funding bill, but on a bill that funds nationwide water projects, the Water Resources Development Act. Why?
CONTINUED >>
COLUMBIA -- First Read is on the ground in Columbia, and as with the first two debates, we'll be providing live-blogging during the debate and immediate pre-game and post-game online commentary. Don't miss a single post. Bookmark it now!
In its preview story, the Los Angeles Times questions whether the tried and true GOP presidential candidate formula of "striking the same three notes” - small government, strong military, and traditional values -- will work in '08. "Increasingly, scholars and political strategists are casting doubt on its value in the 2008 race for the White House."
The State, the hometown paper, writes about the format: There are no opening statements; there are five segments (with each candidate getting one question in it); rebuttals are up to moderator Brit Hume’s discretion; and there WILL be closing statements.
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: He took the unusual step yesterday of issuing a statement in support of legislation passed in the Texas Legislature. The legislation -- if it passes -- would require physicians to provide women with the opportunity to view an ultrasound before proceeding with an abortion. "Women, physicians and society should not be kept in the dark about the medical and moral reality of abortion. Life is sacred and should be protected, not neglected," he said in a campaign statement. Clearly, Brownback is trying to make his social conservative credentials a factor. With none of the three GOP frontrunners natural social conservatives, it has been surprising that neither Brownback nor Huckabee has caught fire (even a little bit).
GINGRICH: Someone is hearing Fred Thompson's footsteps! Why else would Gingrich start teasing his own bid when a few weeks back he said he wouldn't even entertain the notion until the fall. "I think right now that it is a great possibility," Gingrich said. "I don't want to get into all this stuff. I want to focus on what we have to do to make America successful." So now it’s a “great” possibility?
GIULIANI: After a rough weekend of treatment by the print press, Rudy Giuliani was likely dreaming of five minutes of media coverage without anyone mentioning Judith, the 9/11 emergency response, or the Pope, NBC’s Carrie Dann notes. He got his wish late yesterday afternoon via a quick phoner on Sean Hannity's radio show. Hannity's first question put a softer spin on the hardballs he has spent the last two weeks answering: "Your position on abortion to me has always been clear ...Why does this keep becoming an issue for you?"
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The Boston Globe's Lehigh gives Biden his due and remembers when Biden was the Obama of the '88 field. Biden says he jokes with his younger staff that, "Hey, wait, I used to be Barack. ... Last Time, I was the charismatic young guy who could make an audience laugh or cry." Lehigh notes that Biden is not considered a "serious factor" and that fact "bothers" Biden.
CLINTON: She picked up a few more endorsements yesterday, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum notes. A group of prominent New York leaders including Gov. Elliot Spitzer, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Comptroller Tom DeNapoli, and Sen. Chuck Schumer led the way in a mass endorsement of New Yorkers for Clinton. Dressed in a red jacket, Clinton was the spot of bright color among the group of male supporters dressed in black suits. Although she has not been in New York long, Spitzer endorsed her as a fellow New Yorker. "She is a New Yorker through and through because she has wisdom, courage, guts. That is what defines us as a state and a nation."
More evidence that Clinton isn't trying to be a presidential candidate who happens to be a woman, but a WOMAN candidate for president. Per the Chicago Tribune, the campaign is pushing a big registration drive for women who haven't bothered before.
CONTINUED >>
Per the Los Angeles Times, Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty, a career GOP operative who rose to the No. 2 spot at Justice, "announced his resignation Monday in the midst of the widening scandal over the firings of eight U.S. attorneys. His exit marks the fourth resignation since the matter became public this year. It is all the more dramatic because of his high rank - deputy attorney general - in the Bush administration. McNulty has admitted misleading Congress about the reasons for the dismissals. Though he maintained he was out of the loop about the terminations, documents showed he attended a crucial meeting with Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales and others to review a final list of prosecutors to be fired… McNulty's departure invigorated Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill calling for Gonzales to leave as well."
In an interview with the Washington Post, McNulty said that the political tumult over the prosecutor dismissals -- including his role in providing inaccurate information to Congress -- did not play a part in his decision. He said he has not lined up a job but is considering his options. McNulty: "It's been a big issue for the past few months, but the timing of this is really about other things."
This is one of those resignations where family or personal reasons is NOT going to be easily believed.
Meanwhile, Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D) said in a statement of the McNulty resignation: "Another resignation won't make the unanswered questions about the fired U.S. Attorneys disappear."
The fate of passing comprehensive immigration reform this year could be determined this week in the Senate, NBC's Strickland reports. A bipartisan working group of senators has until Wednesday to produce a bill to bring to the Senate floor. If it doesn't, Majority Leader Harry Reid will move forward with last year's Senate bill. Though it passed with respectable bipartisan support then, the political climate has changed dramatically, with many of its moderate Republican supporters now opposed to the legislation.
Without a new bill from the working group, Republicans may use a procedural vote on Wednesday to block (or filibuster) the old bill from moving forward. Republicans leaders maintain they want to pass an immigration bill, but don't want to start with last year's controversial bill. With a united Republican caucus, Democrats would need to muster the 60 votes to break the filibuster. The eventual outcome is too close to call, Strick observes, but leans slightly toward "no bill."
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumLater today,
Bill Richardson will address Google employees in a town hall meeting. Ten days ago,
John McCain had the chance to speak to the group. That had us thinking if the Google Headquarters would be a stopping point for each of the presidential candidates. According to a Google spokesman, the government relations staff at Google has issued invitations to all of the candidates, both Democratic and Republican.
During McCain's town hall, he received unique questions, including whether he remembered his GPA from school (McCain's response? "My GPA earned me fifth from the bottom.") and whether it was unusual for a Republican to be visiting Google. McCain replied to that one, "When I look at what this organization is all about, I think I identify more closely with it than a Democrat does because I believe in less government regulation. I believe the internet is the greatest invention since the printing press."
Richardson will be the first Democratic hopeful to address the organization. Google is still waiting to hear back from the rest of the candidates and are working around the candidates' schedules for when they plan to be in California.
***UPDATE***: An alert commentor notes Hillary Clinton addressed Google employees earlier this year. We double-checked with the campaign and yes, Clinton did address Google in a closed-to-press session in February.
From NBC's Carrie DannTo call Sen.
Mike Gravel an '08 "hopeful" is to merely scratch the surface of his optimism.
"I will get the Democratic nomination," he declared this morning at Washington's National Press Club. Of his proposal for Congressional action to end the war, he boasted "If they follow these tactics, by Labor Day, it's all over." Of the Bush administration? "Impeachment will come," he reassured the anti-war activists in the audience. "Don't worry about that."
Gravel, who's been accused of "cluttering the stage" of last month's Democratic debates, appeared at the Press Club to lay out a strategy for Congressional action that would end the war in Iraq. His proposal calls for daily votes (seven days a week) in the Senate until the president's veto of a withdrawal date is overridden, and it would subject administration officials to felony charges if they failed to comply with the deadline.
His address attracted a staunch anti-war crowd, including iconic protestor
Cindy Sheehan, who applauded Gravel's sentiments but appeared wary of his methods. She asked him if he was working with any members of Congress to enact his plan (his reply: "nope") and suggested that he consider a third-party partnership with peace poster child
Dennis Kucinich (his reply: he doesn't plan on losing at the convention in Denver.)
Questioned about the press's cynicism of his White House hopes, Gravel scoffed that "the arrogance of some in the Fourth Estate knows no bounds." Well, let no one accuse us of not giving him his due.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Mondays have a way of making one both want to catch up from the weekend and purge all at the same time. So here our a few things from my inbox that I am about to purge but figured I should share first:
-- Rudy Giuliani will be responding (via a very FRIENDLY audience) later today to the plethora of negative news stories that have been hounding his campaign today. Giuliani will be Sean Hannity's radio show at 3:35pm ET. Also, don't miss this response from the Giuliani campaign on the New York mag profile of Judith Giuliani. Spokesperson Michael McKeon told the NYT's politics blog that the article was “a rehash of the same-old, same-old”: “It’s riddled with the same old inaccuracies and the same old gossip." He did not do into specific errors, though.
-- The Club for Growth gave Giuliani some actual good news today, praising the mayor via one of its White House '08 "white papers" assessing the GOP candidates. From the release:
"Mayor Giuliani's economic record is not perfect, but he deserves credit for the remarkable nature of his accomplishments," said Club pres. Pat Toomey: "In a city long accustomed to high taxes and ballooning budgets, Rudy Giuliani successfully cut taxes; kept spending below the growth of inflation and population; instituted sweeping welfare reform; privatized and deregulated many aspects of the city's bulky bureaucracy; and fought aggressively for school choice." Toomey put a stamp on his approval of Rudy on the economy by offering up an op-ed to the conservative National Review. Rudy may have social conservative problems, but his terrorism and taxes credentials seem unquestioned with many key conservatives.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
After running for president in 2004 on a platform of eliminating the "Two Americas" economic disparity in this country, John Edwards enjoyed some time working for a hedge fund -- but he said he did it for the experience, more so than for the money. While working for Fortress Investment Group as a consultant, Edwards received an undisclosed amount of compensation. On Friday, in what seemed to be his most extensive comments on camera on the subject, Edwards dodged questions about his involvement with the hedge fund.
When asked to reiterate his position, Edwards responded, "Sure. Well, basically, what I have been doing since the last election is a group of things. One of them is, I did consulting work for Fortress, which is a hedge fund in New York." After a pause, Edwards listed his other activities during this time -- running the poverty center at the University of North Carolina; helping to raise the minimum wage in six states and organize workers into unions; starting a college program for poor students in North Carolina; and doing humanitarian work in Africa. Edwards stated these experiences outweighed his work at Fortress. "So it is one of a group of things I have been involved in and I think that certainly if you look at all those things in totality, it is pretty clear where my commitment is."
Asked if his work at the hedge fund conflicts with the idea Edwards is the candidate for the middle class, he reiterated the benefits from his consulting work. "I do think it's important for the president of the United States to have a good understanding of our financial markets, how they operate, where the incentives are, where the incentives aren't."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
At 1:25 pm ET today from White House Rose Garden, President Bush will call on his Cabinet secretaries to work on new regulations relating to emissions of greenhouse gases. White House officials say this could benefit "climate change" by reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
The president's statement follows an April 2nd Supreme Court ruling that the Environmental Protection Agency does have the authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions of motor vehicles under the Clean Air Act of 2005. Aides say that covers tailpipe emissions. Given that ruling, the Administration needs to take action, aides say.
In his State of the Union, Bush talked about an energy security policy known as "Twenty in 10" -- reducing 20% of oil dependence in ten years. He asked Congress to pass legislation and aides say that is slowly moving forward.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Yesterday's New York Times noted that Bill Clinton was poised to begin playing a bigger role in his wife's presidential campaign. And he looks like he already is, if this campaign video is any indication.
In this nearly five-minute bio of Hillary that's now posted on YouTube, Bill narrates, "I'm really proud of the way that Hillary's campaign is going -- about the goal she is setting for America and the plans she has to achieve them."
"But there are many things in Hillary's life you may not know," he adds before going on to describe her work in public service, her stint as First Lady, and her tenure in the US Senate. He concludes, "I've seen a lot of people come and go over time [in politics]... But I can tell you ... what I believed 35 years ago about Hillary -- that she has the best combination of mind and heart... I believe that today even more strongly than I believed it then."
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Goin’ South: The marquee political event this week is Tuesday’s Republican presidential debate in Columbia, SC, the second GOP one of the oh-eight cycle. As it did in 2000, the South Carolina primary -- whenever it occurs on the calendar -- could wind up deciding the Republican nomination. Yet it’s interesting to note that for a party whose recent presidential nominees, congressional leaders, and general governing philosophy have mostly come from the South, that’s not true for its presidential front-runners (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney), who hail from elsewhere. Does that mean that South Carolina -- and the South in general -- is wide open? Will that change if Fred Thompson gets into the race?
*** The Hits Keep On Coming: Just when Giuliani thought it was safe to go back into the water after clarifying his position on abortion, he gets hit with front-page stories that seem to diminish some of his post-9/11 aura. On Sunday, the Washington Post wrote about all of the money he’s made since that tragic day, while today’s New York Times notes that Ground Zero illnesses seem to have hurt his 9/11 legacy. These two articles are the reason why some of us believe that if anything derails Giuliani's candidacy, it won't have anything to do with abortion or his marriages -- but something that undermines his post-9/11 persona.
*** Straight Talk Express? While Romney’s and Rudy’s big interviews this weekend (on 60 Minutes and Fox News Sunday, respectively) focused more on social issues, the first half of McCain’s appearance on Meet the Press yesterday was dominated by -- you guessed it -- Iraq. Yet perhaps most revealing was the second half of the interview, when NBC’s Tim Russert drew attention to McCain’s reversals on taxes and ethanol, which highlighted that this isn’t the same John McCain of 1999 and 2000. Of course, as McCain likes to point out, that McCain lost the nomination.
*** Don't Touch That Rail! On ABC’s This Week yesterday, Obama said something that could come back to haunt him, especially in an early Florida primary: He said “everything should be on the table” -- except for privatization -- when considering to make Social Security solvent. But isn’t he right? Experts say that to shore up Social Security, you either have to raise the retirement age, raise taxes, cut some benefits, or some combination of the three. By the way, Obama today picks up an endorsement from Newark Mayor Cory Booker.
*** Mr. Bill: Bill Clinton received the front-page treatment in yesterday’s New York Times, just as he heads to South Carolina on Friday to speak to the state NAACP chapter. This part of the article caught our eye: “… Mr. Clinton and the campaign view 2008 as a chance to get right what they saw as a mistake in 2000, when Vice President Al Gore shied away from deploying Mr. Clinton.”
*** New York State of Mind: Meanwhile, Clinton picks up an endorsement today from New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer -- her third from a Democratic governor. The others are New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. The three, of course, all hail from very, very blue states. The Sunday New York Times piece on Bill Clinton mentioned that he and strategist Mark Penn believe Hillary can compete in Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, and Virginia. Are they right?
*** On the Trail: In advance of the Tuesday’s debate, Brownback attends the Silver Elephant Dinner in Columbia, SC, while McCain hits a fundraiser in New Jersey. Obama also finds himself in the Garden State, where he appears at an AFL-CIO town hall in Jersey City. Elsewhere, Richardson is in California to participate in a town hall with Google employees, and Tancredo is in Iowa.
*** And a Friendly Reminder: Anyone who is interested in receiving emails alerting you when First Read has been published, click here:
Countdown to Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary: 8 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 89 days
Countdown to Iowa: 244 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 266 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 539 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 616 days
GIULIANI: John Edwards' campaign must have been relieved yesterday to see a story by the Washington Post’s John Solomon in the Sunday paper, and it have nothing to do with their boss. Instead, Solomon turned his focus to Giuliani's post-9/11 business dealings. After September 11, “Giuliani Partners earned more than $100 million, according to a knowledgeable source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the firm's financial information is private. And that success helped transform the Republican considered the front-runner for his party's 2008 presidential nomination from a moderately well-off public servant into a globe-trotting consultant whose net worth is estimated to be in the tens of millions of dollars."
That article was followed by today’s New York Times piece: “Anyone who watched Rudolph W. Giuliani preside over ground zero in the days after 9/11 glimpsed elements of his strength: decisiveness, determination, self-confidence. Those qualities were also on display over the months he directed the cleanup of the collapsed World Trade Center. But today, with evidence that thousands of people who worked at ground zero have become sick, many regard Mr. Giuliani’s triumph of leadership as having come with a human cost… Administration documents and thousands of pages of legal testimony filed in a lawsuit against New York City, along with more than two dozen interviews with people involved in the events of the last four months of Mr. Giuliani’s administration, show that while the city had a safety plan for workers, it never meaningfully enforced federal requirements that those at the site wear respirators.”
It’s worth noting that more than a third of Giuliani's interview on Fox News Sunday was about abortion -- and it was the first third of the interview. Meanwhile, half of McCain's interview was on Iraq. And in the interview, he promised that he wouldn’t have a Roe litmus test when picking judges.
Planned Parenthood's Cecile Richards probably didn't do Giuliani any favors by releasing a statement praising the mayor's Friday speech in Houston. From Richards' release: “It's encouraging to see that the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president supports the right to make personal private health care decisions free from government intrusion. Giuliani's principled stand disproves the old-school belief that you have to check your convictions at the Presidential primary door. Giuliani is pro-choice and at the front of the pack -- the days of the anti-choice strangle-hold on the Republican Party are numbered."
As if to put an exclamation point on Giuliani's rough week, the new issue of New York magazine includes a profile of Judith Giuliani, written by longtime gossip columnist Lloyd Grove. The profile attempts to piece together how they met: "Their displays of affection got so gooey during the taping of the Walters interview that the ABC News doyenne is said to have joked, ‘Enough already!’ They held hands and cooed; he called her ‘baby’ and she called him ‘sweetheart’ as they kissed on the lips.”
As for other actual political news for Giuliani, the Des Moines Register goes behind the scenes on the campaign’s decision-making process whether it will participate in the Ames Straw poll. Apparently his campaign advisers are pushing him to do it, but Giuliani hasn't made the final decision.
And let's not forget the weekend fundraiser -- err, "golf-raiser" -- Donald Trump threw for Giuliani in Florida over the weekend. The Donald apparently raised a cool million for the ex-mayor. Don't forget, Trump has endorsed both Rudy and Hillary.
MCCAIN: In case you missed it yesterday, you can catch John McCain’s appearance yesterday on Meet the Press here.
ROMNEY: Let's not forget Mitt Romney on "60 Minutes." While all the excerpts were out last week here's a good summation: Mike Wallace said to Romney in the interview, "Your critics say that you're the poster child for chameleon politics, that you lack core beliefs, that you'll do anything to get elected--what about that?" To which Romney replied, "You know if you look at anybody who's a political statesman, they'd better learn how to change their mind when they realize they're wrong."
The Deseret News chose to lead its report on the "60 Minutes" interview with Romney's criticism of Bush on Iraq.
F. THOMPSON: The Washington Times’ Ralph Z. Hallow has leading Christian conservatives telling him on background that they are ready to get behind Thompson's candidacy, if he gets in.
The Politico's Allen notes that on Saturday night, "Thompson was the keynote speaker at a dinner organized by the Council for National Policy, a group of many of the nation’s most influential conservative leaders." Southern Baptist leader Richard Land, a major player in the '08 GOP sweepstakes, introduced Thompson at the event, which was closed to the press.
As for an announcement date, Gannett pegs it at or around July 1. The piece also notes that Thompson is talking with staff and consultants who were with Steve Forbes in 2000, including pollster John McLaughlin.
T. THOMPSON: The former Wisconsin governor is still making excuses for his May 3 debate performance, especially the gaffe over gay employment rights. Thompson: "I've been very sick. ... I was very sick the day of the debate. I had all of the problems with the flu and bronchitis that you have, including running to the bathroom. I was just hanging on. I could not wait until the debate got off so I could go to the bathroom."
BIDEN: “Presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden will not apologize for constantly talking about the war in Iraq. ‘It's like a big boulder and until we deal with it, we won't be able to deal with global warming, education and health care,’ Biden said during a visit to Exeter Saturday evening. ‘We have to talk about Iraq.’”
CLINTON: The New York Times piece on Bill Clinton: “So far, his roles have unfolded in private as he provides ideas to his wife and makes sure she paces herself, and as he acts as something of a field general with donors, instructing them on how to talk up Mrs. Clinton. Eventually, though, he will go public in a big way: Clinton advisers can already imagine a point in 2008 when Mr. Clinton has his own campaign plane, press corps and schedule of events in crucial states while Mrs. Clinton is barnstorming in others.”
Yet according to the piece -- contrary to the speculation by Drudge -- Bill Clinton's role has not yet changed, but it might: He's still a fundraiser-in-chief, he stills communicates his strategy ideas through Mark Penn, and he's still going to play a bigger role in his wife's campaign than he did in Al Gore's campaign. Perhaps the most important part of the report came at the very end of the piece, when Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D), who is unaffiliated in the primary, admitted that once Bill Clinton called him, he released his key fundraisers to help Hillary. That's something this candidate spouse can do that no other candidate spouse can.
CONTINUED >>
Is it just us, or are there always optimistic stories about the role of the youth vote 18 months before an election -- which are then followed by "what happened to the youth vote" stories written days before and after the actual election. Anyhow, the Sunday Boston Globe does the youth-vote-could-be-a-powerful-entity-in-'08 story. The most important take-away (worrisome for Republicans) is how Democratic the 18-24 crowd is skewing.
Salon's Scherer does a fascinating piece on how campaigns use the Drudge Report. Here's a key graph. "Some campaign aides have suggested that Drudge's personal relationships have played a role in what oppo leaks he posts on the site. "I think it's clear that Romney has gotten fairer treatment from Matt Drudge than any other candidate. There is a lot less negative Romney stuff," said the senior Republican campaign aide. "It stems back to what many people believe is a very good relationship between the Romney team and Matt Drudge."
But the piece does not get into which Democratic campaign Drudge seems to have the best relationship with. We know who it’s not -- Obama’s, which has received the lion's share of negative Drudge headlines on the Dem side.
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times’ Stolberg has a very smart line in her Sunday piece about the September deadline for progress: "There’s just one problem. Nobody in Washington seems to agree on what progress actually means - or how, precisely, it might be measured." Indeed, the fight to define how to measure progress and define it will fill the summer Iraq storyline.
The Washington Post reports this morning that "nearly half the U.S. attorneys slated for removal by the administration last year were targets of Republican complaints that they were lax on voter fraud, including efforts by presidential adviser Karl Rove to encourage more prosecutions of election- law violations, according to new documents and interviews. Of the 12 U.S. attorneys known to have been dismissed or considered for removal last year, five were identified by Rove or other administration officials as working in districts that were trouble spots for voter fraud -- Kansas City, Milwaukee, New Mexico, Nevada and Washington state. Four of the five prosecutors in those districts were dismissed."
And in case you missed the Saturday New York Times profile of Monica Goodling: “Ms. Goodling would soon be quizzing applicants for civil service jobs at Justice Department headquarters with questions that several United States attorneys said were inappropriate, like who was their favorite president and Supreme Court justice. One department official said an applicant was even asked, ‘Have you ever cheated on your wife?’ Ms. Goodling also moved to block the hiring of prosecutors with résumés that suggested they might be Democrats, even though they were seeking posts that were supposed to be nonpartisan.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Almost two months after a group of eleven Dem and GOP pres. candidates addressed the International Assn of Fire Fighters in Washington, six Dems have the chance to speak to the group once again, this time in the key state of New Hampshire. While more than one-thousand union members gathered for the DC conference, less than one hundred members are attending the N.H. convention.
Bill Richardson spoke yesterday, and
Barack Obama (via phone),
Chris Dodd,
Joe Biden, and
Hillary Clinton spoke this morning.
John Edwards is scheduled to address the organization tonight.
The candidates - all vying for the association's endorsement (which was key for
John Kerry in '04) - addressed the typical issues of protection for fire fighters, labor unions, and the Iraq War. But what is more noteworthy is their interaction with and reception from the crowd. And from our vantage point, it appeared to be a crowd that was most favorable to Biden, who can deliver a union speech about as well as any Dem. And he proved it again today. Some key highlights from all those spoke today:
Obama, who is spending the day in Iowa and Missouri, did not make the trip to New Hampshire. That says it all in regards to what his campaign believes are his chances for the nod.
According to the AP, Obama made it clear that only Democrats, and not Republicans, will be there for the fire fighters. "'They'll praise your work in speeches, they'll honor you as heroes in words, but when it comes to deeds, they make it harder for you to do your job,' Sen. Barack Obama said, speaking by phone.
Dodd capitalized on this thought. "When it comes to getting help from your government, you've been at the end of the line. That's not going to be the same under a Dodd administration. I'm going to see that firefighters and those that do your work are going to get the support you ought to have from the federal government." He took very little time getting to the crux of his endorsement plea. "I'm proud to say over 32 years in the United States Congress, 26 years in the United States Senate, I'm a union guy. I'm a labor guy. And I'm proud to be associated with you." He brought up middle class issues, asserting the unions are credited with their creation.
Biden mentioned the importance fire fighters have played in his personal life. "I really owe you. I owe the firefighters in my state and the firefighters nationally. As I said before, when my wife and daughter were killed, it was a well trained firefighter with the Jaws of Life who ... saved my two sons." Partially because of this interaction, he looked right at home and comfortable interacting with the crowd. At one point, he goes off microphone, but the press yell at him to go back to the podium. Biden's response - "Who needs me? The press? The hell with you guys!" He returns to the stage, but soon heads back to to the crowd with a hand-held microphone. The senator attempts to become one of the crowd ... but knows he has a tendency to get into trouble when letting his tongue completely loose. "I admit to you there is a comfort zone here, that sometimes I hope I don't trespass on it and take it for granted or act too familiar."
Clinton also tried to personalize her relationship with IAFF. After being introduced with the line "she became a sister to us the day of 9/11," she attempted to capitalize on the relationship. She brought up 9/11 and her continuing efforts for health benefits for firefighters and other people affected during that time. Clinton also addressed the union movement: "Collective bargaining is as American as apple pie and it is time we stood up for the right of people to have a voice in the workplace." But she did not spend as much time on this topic as Biden did, opting instead to spend more time on fire fighters and 9/11 issues than union issues.
After Clinton finished speaking, she saw Biden, who spoke right before her, in the hallway. She walked over to him and said " Hey Joey. How are you?" After a minute, she continued on, leaving the premises. After she left, the IAFF members went to lunch -- paid for and hosted by Sen. Biden.
From NBC's Carrie DannOn the campaign trail,
Rudy Giuliani is fond of saying that the nation should overcome its hurdles by betting on its strengths. From the new tone he's struck on the abortion issue, it appears that he's taking a page from his own playbook.
Today in Houston, Giuliani capped off a rough week of coverage on the abortion issue with a speech that outlined the nuance of his position in no uncertain terms; he privately believes abortion is immoral but publicly respects the right of women to make that choice. "In a country like ours," he said, "where people of good faith .. come to different conclusions about this, about something so very very personal, I believe you have to respect their viewpoint and give them a level of choice here."
Giuliani's stance itself is not new. But his strategy for addressing the issue represents a dramatic shift from what appeared to be an attempt to back a way a bit from his pro-choice positions. His approach pairs a "take-me-as-I-am" appeal to Republicans with an invocation of the greater good of the party: "On all of these issues everybody's got to make a choice," he said, "We've got to work through our disagreements and try to figure out a way to create a party that is known to Americans more about what it's for than about what it's against."
The goal of this speech was to address the abortion in a less wishy-washy way than he did before and during the first GOP presidential debate. Will Rudy's candid appeal to conservative voters' personal freedom save him with conservatives that view the two "T"s -- taxes and terrorism as bigger issues? Maybe. More importantly, is what he said today enough to keep the media from constantly asking the abortion question? The campaign certainly hopes so.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe two most high profile anti-Iraq Republicans are Rep.
Walter Jones (R-NC) on the House side and Sen.
Chuck Hagel (R-NE) on the Senate side. (BTW, apologies for using "anti-Iraq" as shorthand, as the two no doubt hoping for success in Iraq, but I digress...)
The two now have something in common: potential '08 primary challengers who may have consituency to tap into simply because Jones and Hagel are on the wrong side of the Iraq issue as far as base Republicans are concerned. Hagel's primary challenge could come in the form of state Atty Gen.
Jon Bruning. Hagel, of course, may choose not to seek re-election and either run for president (R or I) or simply retire from politics.
Jones, meanwhile, who was one of the first Cong. GOPers to bolt on the president on Iraq, could face a primary challenge from a local county commissioner, Joe McLaughlin, who, by the way, is a retired infantry officer, according to published reports. Jones' North Carolina district covers the Outer Banks but also includes the famous Camp Lejeune, so it's a district that is likely to be very sympathetic to a pro-military (and possibly pro-Iraq) message.
Keep an eye on both Jones and Hagel over the next year and see if Republicans in 2008 start punishing their anti-Iraq elected officials in a similar fashion that Democrats seemed to punish their pro-Iraq electeds (read:
Joe Lieberman) in 2006.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
War Showdown, Part 37: Or at least it feels that way... Lots of developments yesterday: Bush, for the first time, floated a compromise that he’d be open to benchmarks; in a party-line vote, the House passed its bill that would only partially fund Bush’s request for Iraq funds, a measure which Bush has threatened to veto and which seems to be DOA in the Senate; but there were also 171 votes in the House -- more than expected, but not enough to pass -- to essentially end the US involvement Iraq in the next nine months.
*** Where’s the Beef? We've seen how the Democratic White House candidates are driving Iraq legislation on the Hill, but we've yet to see the GOP candidates do the same. When will one of the GOP front-runners start pushing their own 'how we draw down" plan for Iraq? Something like, "We're going to leave Iraq. The question is, Do you trust the GOP to withdraw or the Democrats?" At least that's the message we expect to hear.
*** Survivor? Alberto Gonzales got the kid-gloves treatment from House Republicans yesterday. It looks more and more like he will indeed weather the storm. Will anything change that?
*** Mitt’s Time to Shine? He’s on the cover of Time. He does “60 Minutes” on Sunday (where he criticizes the Bush Administration for making errors in Iraq). He’s still basking in his debate performance last week. And, oh, the GOP front-runner in the polls -- Giuliani -- has had a tough, tough week. There's no better time for Romney to capitalize.
*** Loud and Proud: Giuliani, in a speech this morning at Houston Baptist University, is expected to address the abortion issue. And he'll likely reaffirm his position with more clarity than we've seen over the last week.
*** No Shrinking Violet: The Obama campaign chooses to roll out Michelle Obama to the press on Mother's Day weekend with major profiles in The Washington Post and USA Today. Their impression: She definitely speaks her mind.
*** A Curious Absence: Biden, Clinton, Dodd, and Edwards all travel to New Hampshire to address the International Association of Fire Fighters; Richardson spoke to them yesterday. Where’s Obama? He’s in Iowa, where he will speak to the labor union by phone. Obama’s campaign says its schedule conflict, but we also couldn’t help but notice yesterday’s article in The Hill, in which IAFF President Harold Schaitberger said that Obama’s initial speech to the union -- as well as McCain’s -- wasn’t well received by members. The IAFF, of course, was the sole union to back John Kerry in 2003-2004 before he went on to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire.
*** On the Trail: Elsewhere today, Brownback is in Iowa; McCain visits Columbus, OH; and Richardson appears on the Tonight Show.
*** And a Friendly Reminder: Anyone who is interested in receiving emails alerting you when First Read has been published, click here:
Countdown to Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary: 10 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 92 days
Countdown to Iowa: 247 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 269 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 542 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 619 days
The Washington Post: “The House last night pushed through its second plan to fund the Iraq war and reshape war policy, approving legislation that would provide partial funding for the conflict but hold back most of the money until President Bush reports on the war's progress in July. Coming only a week after the Democrats' first war funding bill was vetoed, the House's 221 to 205 vote defied a fresh veto threat and even opposition from Democrats in the Senate.”
More: “The final tally came just an hour after antiwar Democrats mustered 171 votes for far tougher legislation that would all but end U.S. military involvement in Iraq within nine months. The 255 to 171 vote against that measure meant that nowhere close to a majority backed it, but the fact that 169 Democrats and two Republicans voted for it surprised opponents and proponents alike.”
The New York Times focuses on Bush’s support for benchmarks. “Bush offered his first public concession to try to resolve the impasse on war spending, acknowledging rising pressure from his own party and the public… ‘It makes sense to have benchmarks as a part of our discussion on how to go forward,’ Mr. Bush said.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Previewing his speech to the firefighters today, the AP says Biden was a hit with the union when he spoke to them back in March.
CLINTON: Remember the controversy surrounding Rep. Alcee Hastings’ (D) possible appointment as chair of the House Intelligence Committee? Hastings said he decided not to press the issue after receiving a phone call from Bill Clinton, the Palm Beach Post reports. Per Hastings, “Clinton said that ‘if I were to step aside, I would probably gain in the sight of many,’ Hastings, a Miramar Democrat, said this week. ‘And you know, he was correct.’”
(Did Clinton also counsel Hastings to say after he dropped out of consideration, “Sorry haters, God’s not finished with me yet”?)
DODD: A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut doesn't have good news for favorite son Chris Dodd. He polls in single digits in the Democratic primary. In other polls of favorite sons/daughters, the candidate is usually artificially higher, but that’s not the case for Dodd. Meanwhile, Clinton narrowly leads Obama in the Dem primary, and Giuliani has a double-digit lead in the GOP primary. In general election match-ups, Giuliani leads all the Democrats, with Obama coming the closest to him.
CONTINUED >>
MCCAIN: In an interview with AP in Michigan, McCain talked about Bush’s negative impact on the GOP. “‘I don't think there's any doubt that when the president's polling numbers are low that it harms the Republican Party in general, but I think that when it comes election time that the overwhelming majority of Americans will choose their candidate on the basis of that individual candidate's qualifications, vision and record.’”
ROMNEY: He was given an award by a Massachusetts pro-life group. Per the Boston Globe, Romney talked about his pro-life conversion: “‘I am evidence that your work, that your relentless campaign to promote the sanctity of human life bears fruit,’ Romney told several hundred activists. ‘I do follow . . . a long line of converts: George Herbert Walker Bush, Henry Hyde, Ronald Reagan.’” Romney's speech "was protested by both abortion-rights groups and antiabortion factions, underscoring the delicate balance the former Massachusetts governor must strike on the issue."
The Washington Post previews his upcoming “60 Minutes” interview. “… Romney told CBS News's Mike Wallace that the Bush administration made ‘a number of errors’ in the prosecution of the Iraq war. ‘I don't think we were adequately prepared for what occurred. I don't think we did enough planning. I don't think we considered the various downsides and risks,’ says Romney, according to a transcript of Sunday's ‘60 Minutes’ released Thursday. But the Republican presidential hopeful said Bush's "surge" strategy deserves time to work.”
CONTINUED >>
Per the Washington Post, House Republicans showed Attorney General Alberto Gonzales more support yesterday than he has seen from congressional Republicans in a long time.
The New York Times adds, “Several House Republicans asked no questions about the [US attorney] dismissals, instead praising Mr. Gonzales’s performance or quizzing him on issues like illegal immigration, copyright policy, computer crime and terrorism.”
More: “Democrats at the hearing of the House Judiciary Committee tried but failed to elicit greater clarity about the specific reasons for removing each prosecutor. Mr. Gonzales offered little new information, repeating that his role in the dismissals had been limited. Representative John Conyers Jr., Democrat of Michigan and chairman of the panel, seemed to voice the most frustration over Mr. Gonzales’s testimony, saying, ‘Tell us, just tell us how the U.S. attorney termination list came to be, and who suggested putting most of these U.S. attorneys on the list and why.’”
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Today, another Republican senator announced plans to offer bipartisan legislation to set "a new course" in the Iraq war. Tennessean Lamar Alexander, a loyal Republican who's always voted with the president on Iraq issues said, "There's too much partisan game playing." He and Democrat Ken Salazar will draft a bill that implements the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group Report -- remember that group? -- which included benchmarks and a timeline for troop withdrawal.
"We need to get out of the combat business in Iraq and into the support and training and equipping business as soon as we honorably can," Alexander said in a speech on the Senate floor. He added that because the report stems from a bipartisan effort independent of the Administration, it has a better chance of garnering bipartisan congressional support.
And moderate Republican Olympia Snowe held a news conference to discuss the legislation she announced yesterday with Democrat Evan Bayh. Their bill would require troop withdrawal to pre-surge levels if the Iraqi government has not met specific benchmarks.
From NBC's Mark Murray
President Bush today responded to the news that still has Washington buzzing: that 11 House GOP members voiced their frustrations on the Iraq war and the political dangers it presents to their party. And Bush doesn't appear to be backing down from his unwavering support of the war and the so-called troop surge there.
"I explained to them why I made the decision I made. And I said, look, David Petraeus has got a plan, and members of Congress -- some members of Congress won't let him implement the plan. That doesn't make any sense, on the one had, for us to send him out with the unanimous confirmation by the Senate, and then to deny him the troops and/or the funds necessary to get the job done. And I reminded them that we ought the give David Petraeus a chance."
He added, "I did explain to them that General Petraeus has said he's going to come back and report to the Secretary and the Joint Chiefs and the White House and the Congress about whether or not the strategy that he thinks could work, is working. And at that point in time, we will respond accordingly."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
An official familiar with the Giuliani campaign's strategy tells First Read that, contrary to the news today, the campaign isn't giving up on Iowa. "It's technically correct on the straw poll (no decision yet) but flat wrong on the overall perception it gives as to our strategy on Iowa. We are there to win the caucus in January."
Regarding the state's straw poll, however, the official adds: "The straw poll could cost millions. With a front-loaded primary calendar, it may not be the best use of resources."
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Mark Murray
Five of the 11 House Republicans who voiced their frustrations about the Iraq war on Tuesday represent congressional districts that sided Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. The five are Reps. Mike Castle (DE), Charlie Dent (PA), Jim Gerlach (PA), Mark Kirk (IL), and James Walsh (NY).
Below is a full breakdown:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Although White House press secretary Tony Snow is quoted in today's Washington Post describing aspects of the "candid" Tuesday afternoon White House meeting with GOP House moderates, he declined to discuss anything said or the nature of what happened at today's off-camera gaggle. But that didn't stop an extensive back and forth with reporters. Here's some of what Snow did say:
Question: Is [the president] concerned that members of his party will abandon him? Is he concerned right now?
Snow: "Is he concerned right now? No."
Question: "You don't think you're hearing more Republicans than you heard six months ago with concerns? Has it increased?
Snow: "I don't know, I really don't."
Snow suggested this meeting was typical: "We have meetings all the time, in the residence… We agree to make them confidential."
And on GOP unity on the war, Snow said, "I guarantee you there is far more disunity on the democratic side now."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Hotline's Marc Ambinder is reporting that "Democratic media buyers say that Obama’s media team asked television stations in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada about available ad time and rates."
But: "Robert Gibbs, an Obama spokesman, said the inquiries were 'routine' exercises and should not be interpreted as signaling that an actual buy is imminent. He said the media team asked about rates through the end of the year."
Gibbs tells First Read the same thing. So don't expect Obama to go up soon, but the campaign is obviously laying the groundwork for future ads.
From NBC's Carrie DannGiuliani yesterday tried to paint his abortion stance -- what some see to be an increasing problem for the ex-mayor and something he's even
retooling -- as a positive asset in a potential general election run. Speaking to jostling reporters in Huntsville, AL, he reiterated the distinction between his personal opposition to abortion and public legislation of reproductive choice. But when pressed about how that nuance could hurt his standing among the GOP faithful, he argued that he echoes popular opinion, even if it doesn't come from the right. "That happens to be -- I think -- the position of, if not the majority of the Republican Party then the majority of the country." He again placed himself squarely in the majority with a later comment: "Some people say [my position on abortion] is inconsistent. I really disagree with that. That would say that something like 60 or 70% of the American people are inconsistent."
And Giuliani brushed off questioning about the Pope's statement that pro-choice Catholic politicians should be punished by the church. "I do not get into debates with the Pope. That is not a good idea." He added that the intersection of his political and religious beliefs should remain "between me and my confessor."
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** The Intervention: The House is set to vote today on a Democratic measure that would give President Bush less than half of what he’s requested for Iraq, with the rest coming only after certain benchmarks are met. But the big political news regarding Iraq -- first reported last night by NBC’s Tim Russert -- is that 11 moderate GOP House members (some of whom are targets in those new VoteVets ads) met with Bush on Tuesday to voice their frustrations about the war. Perhaps the most revealing thing about the meeting was Bush’s reaction. While Russert said on TODAY that the president wasn’t defensive and left the meeting in a “somber” mood, the New York Times has this: “Lawmakers said Mr. Bush made no commitments, but seemed grateful for their support and said a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq could cause the sort of chaos that occurred in Southeast Asia after Americans left Vietnam.” Did he get the message?
*** Other Thoughts: Why were there only 11 Republicans -- nearly all of them moderates -- who decided to meet with Bush about this? And why did it happen only this week, six months after the GOP’s midterm losses? Have there been other meetings that didn’t get leaked to the media?
*** Gonzo’s Return: It doesn’t have near the build-up that his earlier testimony did (largely because he isn’t expected to say anything new), but Attorney General Alberto Gonzales goes before the House Judiciary Committee today to talk about the US attorneys controversy. The news from today’s papers: Gonzales and the White House believe his job is safe. But could another poor performance change that?
*** What’s Rove Thinking? This White House, especially Karl Rove, had big dreams about creating a permanent GOP majority. And it seemed close to getting there after 2004. But now, with the Administration running in place on Iraq and seeming to tolerate a weakened attorney general, does it care anymore about the party’s political future? Per Russert, Bush told the 11 GOP moderates, "I don't want to pass [Iraq] off to another president. I don't want to pass this off, particularly, to a Democratic president." But honest question: Is the White House doing what’s needed to ensure that doesn’t happen?
*** The Center, Here We Come: Per the Times, Giuliani plans to offer “a forthright affirmation” of his support for abortion rights in the coming days. And as a result, he’ll concentrate more on the more socially liberal Feb. 5 primary battlegrounds. But why didn’t he and his team take that approach in last week’s debate? Will that “OK” haunt him regardless of what he says in the coming days? Does the news that Romney’s wife once donated money to Planned Parenthood make things a bit easier for Giuliani?
*** On the Trail: McCain raises money in Chicago; Obama heads to Iowa; Richardson addresses the International Association of Fire Fighters State Directors' Convention in Portsmouth, NH; and Romney speaks at the Massachusetts Citizens for Life’s Mothers Day Dinner reception.
*** And a Friendly Reminder: Anyone who is interested in receiving emails alerting you when First Read has been published, click here:
Countdown to Kentucky’s gubernatorial primary: 11 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 93 days
Countdown to Iowa: 248 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 270 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 543 days
Countdown to the end of Bush's presidency: 620 days
The New York Times on the moderate House GOPers meeting with Bush on Tuesday about Iraq: “The White House session demonstrated the grave unease many Republicans are feeling about the war, even as they continue to stand with the president against Democratic efforts to force a withdrawal of forces through a spending measure that has been a flash point for weeks.”
The Washington Post adds, “[T]he meeting between 11 House Republicans, Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, White House political adviser Karl Rove and presidential press secretary Tony Snow was perhaps the clearest sign yet that patience in the party is running out.”
Per the two papers, the 11 House Republicans included Reps. Charlie Dent (PA), Tom Davis (VA), Mike Castle (DE), Todd Platts (PA), Jim Ramstad (MN), Jo Ann Emerson (MO), Mark Kirk (IL), Ray LaHood (IL), John Boehner (OH), Jim Gerlach (PA), and James Walsh (NY). As we wrote yesterday, Castle, Emerson, and Walsh are being targeted by the new VoteVets TV ads that are critical of the Iraq war.
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times curtain-raises Gonzales' testimony today, in which he’s expected to face some tough questioning from House Democrats.
Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D), who has been a bulldog in the US attorneys investigation, sent out his own preview of sorts for today's Gonzales. "As Gonzales prepares to testify, significant questions regarding the U.S. Attorney scandal remain unanswered. What we do know is that the two staffers to whom Gonzales handed over the power to hire and fire U.S. Attorneys were the Justice Department officials with the closest links and best relationships with the White House. We also now know that White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove helped to brief and prepare William Moschella for his Judiciary Committee testimony and was therefore in the room during the creation of the plan to mislead Congress and falsely claim that the US Attorney firings were based on competence. Democrats are committed to investigating this matter and ensuring the public corruption cases many of the now former U.S. Attorneys were pursuing are not further impeded."
By the way, the New York Times is reporting that Gonzales -- for now -- looks relatively safe to keep his job. “Though Mr. Gonzales is considered in Congress and in legal circles as an isolated and diminished figure, he has told aides he believes he has weathered the storm… Republicans close to the White House say that top aides to the president — including Karl Rove, the chief political strategist, and Fred F. Fielding, the White House counsel — have privately expressed misgivings about Mr. Gonzales but now appear to have lined up behind Mr. Bush.”
GIULIANI: After being dogged by the abortion issue, the New York Times says that Giuliani “is planning to offer a forthright affirmation of his support for abortion rights in public forums, television appearances and interviews in the coming days… At the same time, Mr. Giuliani’s campaign — seeking to accomplish the unusual task of persuading Republicans to nominate an abortion rights supporter — is eyeing a path to the nomination that would try to de-emphasize the early states in which abortion opponents wield a great deal of influence. Instead they would focus on the so-called mega-primary of Feb. 5, in which voters in states like California, New York and New Jersey are likely to be more receptive to Mr. Giuliani’s social views than voters in Iowa and South Carolina.”
MCCAIN: The Detroit News reports on McCain's campaign stop in Michigan, and it claims he "met privately Wednesday with a handful of local Republicans as his campaign works to catch Mitt Romney in Michigan. McCain won the state's 2000 GOP presidential primary, but trails Romney in fundraising here, and in one recent poll."
The Politico writes, “In a letter to McCain that their press shop made public today, Planned Parenthood lit into the Arizonan for the comment made by his top campaign strategist, John Weaver. The organization deemed ‘incendiary’ Weaver's quote to the LA Times that Giuliani had given money to ‘one of the most radical pro-abortion groups in the country.’”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: In what may be an attempt to one-up the Obama campaign on canvassing in New Hampshire on May 19, the Clinton camp is holding a "day of action" this Saturday in the state.
The New York Times reports that Bill Clinton says he won’t earn any income if his wife wins the presidency. “‘I hope I will have saved enough by then, if she is elected, that we can just, you know, pay our bills and — I’d like to keep our two homes, our home in Washington, our home in Chappaqua,’ Mr. Clinton added. ‘And otherwise, I’d like to devote whatever time she wants to whatever she wants me to do, and I should be able to have probably two to three days a week to do in the foundation. I certainly hope so.’”
EDWARDS: The Chicago Tribune describes his speech in Chicago yesterday as a "harsh" criticism on the Iraq war.
OBAMA: Sen. Chuck Grassley didn't take too kindly to Obama coming to Iowa and asking folks to lobby him on Iraq.
The AP reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, "who insists he is not running for president, has relaunched the Web site he used for his mayoral campaigns in 2001 and 2005, mikebloomberg.com… The home page features links that describe his work on issues such as education, health care, gun control and the environment. The language uses broad descriptions that might appeal to a national audience and introduces him on each page as plain old Mike Bloomberg instead of using his title of mayor.”
USA Today notes that a “dozen presidential candidates will take part in interactive online town halls with members of the massive social network MySpace, the latest sign of the Internet's growing importance in U.S. political campaigns. MySpace.com … plans to start the hour-long sessions with individual candidates after Labor Day. They will be physically present at a college campus along with about 200 MySpace members; other members can watch a webcast and submit questions.”
First Read has learned more about the town halls: The 12 who have agreed to take part so far are Brownback, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Giuliani, Hunter, McCain, Obama, Paul, Richardson, Romney, and (Tommy) Thompson. More details about the town hall schedule will be announced in the coming weeks.
CONTINUED >>
The battle over immigration reform is heating up on Capitol Hill and in the states. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to bring the bill to the floor next week.
Meanwhile, Florida Sen. Mel Martinez (R) is being targeted by pro-immigration reform advocates who are upset that he apparently has backed away from his original support of Bush's initial plan.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumFor the second day in a row, Clinton gained another influential endorsement -- this time from Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D), who had some difficulty with the announcement. he stated, "It is with great pride and enthusiasm that I endorse my friend Sen. Hillary, Hillary, let me try that again." After some laughter, he said, "I was getting excited," and continued, "Today, it is with great pride and enthusiasm that I endorse my friend Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to be the next president of the United States." Speaking of Clinton, O'Malley stated, "No one is better equipped to repair America's alliances abroad and address the urgent needs of our communities at home."
Clinton responded, "I could not be prouder than to have this endorsement because I know that when Gov. O'Malley puts his mind to something, when he decides he's going to get behind a cause or an issue, it happens." She talked about their relationship throughout many years, bringing up his partnership with the Clinton administration. She praised O'Malley's work in Maryland and his adoption of the living wage for the American middle class.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Even though he was just talking about Mexican politicians, the Pope has warned that Catholic politicians risk ex-communication and the denial of communion if they support abortion rights. Although he was talking just about Mexican politicians, everyone here is wondering: Will the same controversy that dogged John Kerry in 2004 -- Catholic bishops saying he shouldn't receive communion -- also apply to the Catholic Giuliani in 2008?
Per a 2005 White Plains (NY) Journal News article we found, the Church hasn't criticized Giuliani in the past for his support of abortion rights. "Giuliani has felt largely at home in the Archdiocese of New York, where he faced little criticism from church leaders when he was mayor. He regularly attended the Al Smith Dinner, the archdiocese's annual, big-name fundraiser, as has Gov. George Pataki, another Catholic Republican who favors abortion rights."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Well, everyone seems to be going up with new TV ads today. The latest one is Richardson's new advertisement, which will begin running tomorrow on broadcast and cable in Iowa.
It pokes fun at his impressive resume: "OK, 14 years in Congress. U.N. Ambassador. Secretary of Energy. Governor of New Mexico. Negotiated with dictators in Iraq, North Korea, Cuba, Zaire, Nigeria, Yugoslavia, Kenya ... got a ceasefire in Darfur... nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times."
"So ... What makes you think you can be president?"
***Update*** Here's a YouTube clip of the ad.
From NBC's Mark Murray
We missed this Politico story earlier, but it appears that Fred Thompson is retooling the speech he gave last Friday -- for one he will give in Northern Virginia on Saturday. Thompson "acknowledges his coming-out speech in California last weekend didn't live up to expectations, advisers say, and he is planning a tighter and sharper message dubbed 'Stump Speech 2.0' for a Saturday night event to be attended by key conservative leaders."
More: "Friends working on the speech say it will include more of a call to arms than the entertaining but unfocused after-dinner address Thompson gave to an eagerly expectant audience Friday night... Saturday's event will be a crucial audition in Northern Virginia, where Thompson will be the keynote speaker at a dinner of the Council for National Policy, an organization of conservative leaders. Organizers say he will be introduced by Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention, who is among the most important voices of evangelical Christians."
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier today, House Democrats are proposing legislation that would give the president half of the Iraq money he wants, with conditions on receiving the rest. Well, John Edwards -- who has been critical of past compromise efforts and also of Clinton's recent proposal to de-authorize the Iraq war -- isn't a fan.
“This is not a compromise; it is a concession," he says in a statement. "This proposal may not give George Bush all the money he wants, but it gives him all the money he needs to continue his surge and keep the war going... Enough is enough. We don't need to wait and see how the surge is going to do; we know the surge has failed... Congress should not back down to the president's veto. They should pass the same bill they sent him last month, a plan to support our troops, end the war, and bring them home."
Edwards' opposition to this new House proposal is another example of him trying to claim the anti-war mantle, as well as capitalize on the fact that he's no longer in Congress (and no longer has to cast controversial votes).
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine has announced legislation that will require troop redeployment if the Iraqi government has not met specific benchmarks. After a weekend trip to Iraq, Snowe said. "I am more convinced than ever before that the Iraqi government doesn't understand that our commitment is not infinite." Democratic Senator Evan Bayh is the bill's co-sponsor.
The benchmarks the Iraqi government must meet include, "Iraqi assumption [of] control of its military, disarming and demobilizing sectarian militias, holding a referendum on amendments to the Iraqi constitution that ensure participation by all religious and ethnic groups, holding provincial elections, enacting oil revenue sharing, and reforming de-Ba'athification," according to a release.
Under the Snowe-Bayh bill, General Petraeus would have to report on progress toward the benchmarks 120 days after the bill's enactment. The Government Accountability Office would then assess Iraqi progress. If the Iraqis failed to meet any one of the milestones, Petraeus would then have to submit a plan to withdraw most troops, excluding those for force protection, counter insurgency, and support and training of Iraqi forces.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a conference call with reporters today to announce the new ads they appear in that criticize the Iraq war, three retired military generals -- Wesley Clark, John Batiste, and Paul Eaton -- all had tough words for the Bush Administration and its handling of the war. Said Clark, "The fact is, this president never listened to the soldiers on the ground. The problem is not just a military problem. It is a political problem and a diplomatic problem."
Batiste added that Bush "ignores sound military advice and surrounds himself with like-minded subordinates." More: "There was a time when we could have pulled this out. Quite frankly, it is time to call a spade a spade."
And Eaton called the Bush Administration "incompetent," and said his participation in this ad campaign "is an effort to render competence to an Administration that needs it."
One of the ads has Bush saying that he listens to the commanders on the ground. But then Batiste chimes in: "Mr. President, you did not listen. You continue to pursue a failed strategy that is breaking our great Army and Marine Corps. I left the army in protest in order to speak out. Mr. President, you have placed our national in peril. Our only hope is that Congress will act now to protect our fighting men and women."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Master of Disaster? When Bush heads to Kansas today to inspect the damage caused by last week's tornado, he'll confront two different, yet intertwined, storylines that have dogged his presidency: Iraq and Katrina. Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) has complained that the war has drained away precious National Guard resources, while yesterday’s Sebelius-White House flap brings back memories of the back-and-forth after Katrina. You know things are difficult for Bush when he can't even step into a disaster zone -- like he famously did after 9/11 -- without political hell breaking loose.
*** A Curious Answer: Today, Edwards gives another speech on poverty when he keynotes the Women Employed's Working Lunch in Chicago. But did anyone else catch his response to the AP about his work for a hedge fund? “It was primarily to learn, but making money was a good thing, too… I didn't feel like I understand, and to be honest with you still learning right now, sort of the relationship between that world and the way money moves in this country through financial markets." To learn? Isn’t that akin to a teenager who, after getting busted by his parents for smoking pot, says: “But I did it to learn about its effects”? Edwards dodged the hedge fund question at last month’s debate, but his new quote guarantees that he’ll be asked about it again. And just how much money will that financial disclosure form show he made from the hedge fund? Why didn't he take the opportunity to simply tell the AP rather than keep putting off the inevitable?
*** A Tough Week for Rudy: A day after The Politico reported about Giuliani’s contributions to Planned Parenthood, the Village Voice comes out with a story alleging that, as New York mayor, he obtained four New York Yankees World Series rings that are worth a minimum of $200,000 -- but paid just $16,000 for them. What’s more, the Voice says he might have broken the law because New York officials are prohibited from accepting gifts of more than $50 from anyone who has business with the city. Does this story have legs -- err, fingers? Meanwhile, Rudy had another bad abortion day thanks to a testy interview with conservative radio host Laura Ingraham.
*** Spending That Dough: Romney goes up with a new TV ad today highlighting his proposal to increase the US Armed Forces by 100,000 new soldiers and spend 4% of the nation’s GDP on the military. In the ad -- which runs in Iowa, New Hampshire, and national cable -- Romney says: "America must remain the world's military superpower. If we lock our arms together, we can forge the political will to rebuild our military might. Now is the time for us to lead a great coalition of strength. For our families, for our future, for America.” Romney, Edwards, and Richardson have all gone up with ads. What do they have in common? They have plenty of money, but aren’t top-top tier in the national polls. By comparison, the front-runners have the luxury of money AND time.
*** Old vs. New? At the time of this writing, Clinton -- in Annapolis -- receives an endorsement from Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. The Maryland GOV-Virginia GOV split in presidential endorsements seems to be an example of the divide inside the Democratic Party between old-line establishment Democrats lining up behind Clinton (O'Malley) and new, less-conventional types lining up behind Obama (Tim Kaine).
*** On the Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani stumps in Alabama; McCain is in Michigan; Richardson raises money in New York; and Romney, in Iowa, holds a series of media avails and an “Ask Mitt Anything” town hall.
*** And a Friendly Reminder: Anyone who is interested in receiving emails alerting you when First Read has been published, click here:
Countdown to Kentucky gubernatorial primary: 12 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 94 days
Countdown to Iowa: 249 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 271 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 544 days
Countdown to the end of Bush's presidency: 621 days
While congressional Republicans are pointing to September as Judgment Month on the surge, the Pentagon apparently is trying to move the goal posts to early 2008, the Washington Post writes. “U.S. commanders in Iraq are increasingly convinced that heightened troop levels … will need to last into the spring of 2008. The military has said it would assess in September how well its counterinsurgency strategy, intended to pacify Baghdad and other parts of Iraq, is working.”
NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports that House Democrats are moving forward with a measure that would give the president less than half the money he has requested for funding the war in Iraq. A key vote is penciled in for Thursday. The plan, authored by Democratic Reps. Obey and Murtha, would make available a first batch of only about $43 billion of the $96 billion that the president wants for fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The president would then be required to report to Congress on progress being made by the Iraqi government in achieving certain benchmarks. That assessment would be due on July 13. Ten days after that, the Congress would vote -- first on whether to begin an immediate withdrawal, and then (if the Congress votes against that) on releasing the remaining $53 billion in funding.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times on the back-and-forth between Sebelius and the White House over the National Guard: “The debate was reminiscent of the Bush administration’s skirmishes with Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco of Louisiana, also a Democrat, after Hurricane Katrina. But after an angry flurry of words, both sides seemed to back down a bit later Tuesday.”
Sebelius issued this statement yesterday: "Let me be clear: With the equipment we have, the men and women of the Kansas National Guard have the initial response to the Greensburg tornado under control.” More: “I have said for nearly two years, and will continue to say, that we have a looming crisis on our hands when it comes to National Guard equipment in Iraq and our needs here at home…I appreciate the President's help, quick response and concern in dealing with the tornado damage in Greensburg. But I will not back down on the issue of replacing our National Guard equipment throughout the country. As Governor and a commander-in-chief, I have a solemn responsibility to protect the people of my state and provide for the men and women of the Kansas Guard."
Obama yesterday sent this letter to Bush: “I’m troubled by reports that our emergency response capabilities continue to be hampered because National Guard resources have been diverted overseas. The Guard provides our first defense against disasters that strike on our soil. In light of the tragic events in Greensburg, Kansas, I’m writing to ask you that the federal government ensure that the National Guard has the resources necessary to respond to disasters here at home.”
CLINTON: The Washington Post previews the endorsement that Clinton will receive today from Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.
New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) will also endorse Clinton, becoming the third sitting governor to do so. Besides O’Malley, the other is New Jersey's Jon Corzine.
Apparently at a dinner with key supporters last week, Clinton's Iowa point person, ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack, warned that the campaign is not winning right now in Iowa.
DODD: John Kerry gave Chris Dodd's energy/global warming plan major props yesterday. Said Kerry in a statement: “The Democratic presidential nominating process and all Americans are better off because of Chris' leadership and his passionate commitment to ensuring a cleaner, healthier, and more secure energy future for our country.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Here’s that Village Voice article on Giuliani’s World Series rings. “The greatest love affair of Rudy Giuliani's life has become a sordid scandal.”
Meanwhile, the abortion drumbeat continues for Giuliani. Just how did he allow his pro-choice stance to become a "gotcha" for reporters? Giuliani tried to clean up things a bit with an appearance on Laura Ingraham's radio show, the Washington Post notes. The real benefit of that? No TV clip -- because the interview got testy. “When Ingraham ended the segment with a standard line about his returning again, a clearly agitated Giuliani responded: ‘I would love to come back, but you're going to have to ask me about the war on terror and what we do about the economy, which is after all what most citizens ask me about.’ ‘Well, conservatives are citizens, too, Mayor Giuliani!’ Ingraham responded. ‘We're citizens, too.’”
HUCKABEE: Potential good news for the former Arkansas governor: The new executive director of the South Carolina GOP was Huckabee's director of media operations a few years ago.
MCCAIN: The Arizona senator continued his Iowa trip yesterday with a stop in Ft. Dodge, IA. The Des Moines Register: "McCain, who didn't campaign in Iowa during the 2000 Republican primary season, was making his third Iowa trip of the current campaign. He completed a two-day, five-stop swing through Iowa in Fort Dodge on Tuesday.’ Like many of McCain's stops, the big topic at his stop was Iraq.
CONTINUED >>
We’re curious, where do the major presidential candidates stand on Texas Gov. Rick Perry's (R) push to mandate vaccines for HPV in schoolgirls? Perry held a very emotional press conference yesterday acknowledging defeat in the legislature for his idea to mandate the vaccines.
The Politico's Wilner tries to smash the conventional wisdom that the front-loaded primary calendar is somehow anti-democratic. "Critics make two arguments against the prospect of a majority of states casting votes by Feb. 5 -- both of which seem fundamentally flawed. One is that the nominees will be decided 'before people really have a chance to make up their minds.' But national polls already show an unusually high level of interest in this campaign... The other argument against the slew of early primaries and caucuses is that candidates who aren't successful in Iowa or New Hampshire 'won't have time to bounce back.' Name the candidate who performed poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire and went on to get nominated anyway."
The Hartford Courant reports that the no-shows of five senators running for president contributed to “the death on Monday of a measure that would have made it easier to import cheaper legal prescription medicine into the country from Canada and other countries… Missing from the crucial vote Monday were presidential hopefuls Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Barack Obama of Illinois, all Democrats, and Republicans Sam Brownback of Kansas and John McCain of Arizona. The only presidential candidate from the Senate who voted was Hillary Rodham Clinton, the New York Democrat, who favored easing the importation of less-costly drugs.”
Democratic senators hold a press conference on Capitol Hill to talk about the need for comprehensive immigration reform. The New York Times: “Key senators said Tuesday that they had agreed on the outlines of a bipartisan bill that would toughen border enforcement and provide a path to legal status for illegal immigrants. But they remain deeply divided on many details, lawmakers and Congressional aides said, and it remains unclear whether a deal can be reached by Monday, the deadline set by Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic majority leader, for putting a compromise bill on the floor.”
The Washington Post does the "Tom Cole is going to be a strong NRCC chair" story. From its profile: "The good news, Cole says, is that things can't get much worse. There are now 61 Democrats in House districts Bush won in 2004, and only eight Republicans in districts he lost, so Cole plans to ‘play offense’ in 2008. He thinks House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is electoral poison, too liberal for the country, and he can't wait to attack moderate Democrats for ‘marching in lock step’ with their liberal leader. He's also eager to have a GOP presidential nominee, a new standard-bearer for a Bush-fatigued nation."
Per the
Washington Post, an aide to GOP Sen. Kit Bond apparently pushed for the ouster of the US attorney from western Missouri a lot sooner than was first thought -- meaning more evidence that this may have been done for political reasons.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) just issued this statement on the flap over the National Guard: "Let me be clear: With the equipment we have, the men and women of the Kansas National Guard have the initial response to the Greensburg tornado under control.I have said for nearly two years, and will continue to say, that we have a looming crisis on our hands when it comes to National Guard equipment in Iraq and our needs here at home. The equipment shortage will likely slow long-term efforts to recover and rebuild in Greensburg. We can only hope that we not have another significant natural disaster in Kansas. That would put our Guard, and the people of Kansas, in a real bind."
"I appreciate the President's help, quick response and concern in dealing with the tornado damage in Greensburg. But I will not back down on the issue of replacing our National Guard equipment throughout the country. As Governor and a commander-in-chief, I have a solemn responsibility to protect the people of my state and provide for the men and women of the Kansas Guard."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Hillary and Bill Clinton have a long history with promoting peace in Northern Ireland. And Hillary used this history for some help with her presidential campaign. On the same day as the Northern Ireland Assembly's inauguration, Sen. Clinton received a gift in return for her work in the region: Massachusetts Rep. Richard Neal's (D) endorsement. The president of Irish American Democrats, Stella O'Leary, underlined its importance. "For us Irish, there is no more important endorsement than Congressman Richard Neal."
About 30 Irish Americans joined O'Leary, Clinton, and Neal to celebrate the inauguration, which enables a sharing of power between Protestants and Catholics in the region. Clinton stated, "I'm excited because today represents a real milestone for the people of Ireland. And yet I also know there are places around the world that have not been able to take that step toward any kind of conversation, let alone process of peace. I hope that this example will give heart to those who do take risks for peace."
Sen. Clinton's experience with Ireland dates back to her days as First Lady. Speaking to a group of people whose eyes sparkled at the mention of Bill Clinton, she concluded her talk with such a reference. "I want to say a special word, as you might expect I would, on behalf of my husband. I remember very well the difficult debates on the granting of that visa. It followed us wherever we went. We even tried to get a little time off and people pursued us."
Clinton was referring to a visa her husband granted Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams to enter the US, believing it would bring the peace process forward.
From Hotline's On Call blog
Some additional political news today from our friends at Hotline:
*** Clinton seems likely to pick up an endorsement tomorrow from Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D).
*** Why does Giuliani fare worse in CNN polls than in Gallup polls?
*** And the Giuliani camp has signed up fundraiser Anne Dunsmore, who should open doors in California.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Rep. Tom Allen (D) of Maine today filed his statement of candidacy to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), setting up what promises to be one of the top Senate contests of 2008. And as Allen made clear in a video statement on his Web site, he will make the Iraq war a chief issue in the race.
"From the beginning, when President Bush rushed to invade Iraq, Susan Collins has supported his misguided policy. I fought to stop it."
"She voted for the Iraq War. I voted against it."
"Susan Collins continues to vote with the Republicans against a timetable to end the War in Iraq. I voted for a responsible change of course to bring our troops safely home."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Kansas Sen. (and GOP presidential candidate) Sam Brownback has told the AP that he disagrees with Gov. Kathleen Sebelius's (D) opinion that the Iraq war has depleted the state's tornado-recover efforts. Per the AP, "Brownback said Tuesday that local officials and the Kansas National Guard commander all told him they have the resources needed to respond."
"'That's what really got me, is her saying that,' Brownback said in an interview. 'So I asked, privately and publicly, the adjutant general, do you have the equipment you need?' he said. 'Because if you don't, we're going to hit Fort Riley and McConnell (Air Force Base) and other places to make sure we have all the equipment we need to respond to disasters. Everybody there said no, we have the equipment we needed.'"
"He added: 'I think what we need to do is to focus on what we need here now, and not draw a broader political question in. We've got a disaster, and we need to all pull together to get everything we need from the state and the federal for the local need.'"
From NBC's Joel Seidman
After giving a speech on Iraq to the Council on Foreign Relations, Nebraska Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel hinted to NBC that he is considering the option of entering the 2008 presidential race as an independent. Hagel said he will, "wait and see." But he added that he has not ruled anything out. "The option is still open," he said.
Last week Hagel told Bloomberg's Al Hunt that, "I don't ever foreclose any options." And Hagel said to Hunt that he will decide in the next few months whether to run for a third Senate term, pursue the presidency, or leave politics altogether. He also told Bloomberg an independent bid "is possible."
On Iraq, Hagel said September is "almost a self-imposed kind of a deadline" for political progress in Iraq before congressional support for the war starts to fade. But he said in terms of the emergency supplemental for the war, "I don't like the idea of half the money now, half the money later."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Kelly O'Donnell
Echoing an earlier complaint by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), Kansas state Sen. Donald Betts (D) argued that National Guard shortages -- due to their deployments to Iraq -- have crippled the tornado recovery effort in his state. “My hope is that the federal government really looks at these issues, or the president really looks at this tragedy and understands how important it is that our equipment and National Guard troops are secured back at home,” he said in a conference call sponsored by an antiwar group. Jane Bullock, former chief of staff to the director of FEMA during the Clinton Administration, added in the call. “We’re going to be in very bad shape as we enter spring flooding and then hurricane season,” without sufficient Guard troops currently stationed throughout the country.
White House press secretary Tony Snow responded to the criticisms that the depleted National Guard has made recovery in Kansas more difficult. Snow said the White House is "eager to provide what Kansas needs, but also you have to go through a process of making the request first." More Snow: "I think its important to try to work cooperatively here. This is not as attempt to make a political issue out of it but you do have to make the point that … there are in fact, things that you have to go through that again is part of the standard procedure for any governor."
President Bush plans to visit Greensburg, KS tomorrow.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** A September to Remember: As House Minority Leader John Boehner hinted at on Sunday (and as Trent Lott now argues too), September seems to be yet another turning point month for the Bush Administration when it comes to holding congressional Republicans in line on Iraq. If the surge is working, they'll stick with him; if it isn’t, September will be the first month the White House is likely to see more GOP defections on key war funding bills.
*** Another PR Problem for Bush? Do check out the news story below about how the National Guard shortages in Kansas -- due to Iraq -- are slowing down the tornado-recovery efforts in the state. Don’t be surprised to see Democratic presidential candidates pounce on this news. Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) is not known as a partisan bomb-thrower, so she might be a very effective spokesperson for the Democrats on this one.
*** Asymmetrical Warfare: The group VoteVets.org is set to launch a $500,000 ad campaign directly taking on Bush’s argument that he listens to commanders on the ground in Iraq -- by featuring some of the president’s former generals, who say the war in Iraq endangers US security. The ad targets GOP senators and congressmen up for re-election next year. Quick question: When was the last time you saw a TV ad defending Bush's policies in Iraq?
*** Going Back to Cali: Did anyone else notice Schwarzenegger praising Obama’s energy plan yesterday? Yes, we know the California governor is passionate about fighting global warming. And, yes, we know he wants to play a big role in the upcoming presidential contest -- we just thought it would be only in the GOP field. Schwarzenegger won re-election last year in an environment that took down many of his fellow Republicans by veering to the left (on energy, health care, and immigration). Granted, California certainly doesn’t represent the nation as a whole, but is Schwarzenegger providing his party’s presidential candidates (or perhaps some independent candidate) with a road map to success in ’08? And if he is, which candidate is most likely to have success with it?
*** A Planned Attack? On the campaign trail, Giuliani says he personally hates abortion, even as he supports a right to choose. But a rival campaign appears to have tipped off The Politico with details about the donations Giuliani and then-wife Donna Hanover made to Planned Parenthood. Since Giuliani's "OK" heard around the conservative world at last week's GOP debate, it was expected that a renewed focus on Giuliani and the abortion was coming. Well, it's here. Also, what’s worse -- a flip-flopper on abortion, a solidly pro-choice Republican, or someone whose position on the issue is so tangled that voters no longer understand what that position is?
*** On the Trail: John and Elizabeth Edwards attend the Time 100 Dinner in New York, where Elizabeth is being honored as one of the magazine's 100 most influential people; McCain holds town halls in Iowa before heading to Michigan to raise money there; Obama attends a Richmond, VA kick-off that’s hosted by Gov. Tim Kaine (D), who has endorsed the Illinois senator; Richardson is in New York; and Romney fundraises in Maryland and New York.
*** And a Friendly Reminder: Anyone who is interested in receiving emails alerting you when First Read has been published, click here:
The Washington Post: “Congressional leaders from both political parties are giving President Bush a matter of months to prove that the Iraq war effort has turned a corner, with September looking increasingly like a decisive deadline. In that month, political pressures in Washington will dovetail with the military timeline in Baghdad. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the commanding general in Iraq, has said that by then he will have a handle on whether the current troop increase is having any impact on political reconciliation between Iraq's warring factions.”
Senate Minority Whip Trent Lott followed up on Boehner's "Plan B" comment from Sunday, saying he too will need to see significant progress on the ground by the early fall in order to continue to keep the caucus behind the president.
NBC’s Ken Strickland says the Senate will address funding the Iraq war on two different, yet parallel, tracks this week. First, there's the post-veto negotiations over the Iraq supplemental. White House chief of staff Josh Bolten is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders sometime early this week, date TBD.
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CLINTON: Yesterday, the Clinton campaign had to push back on the idea that the loss in France by female candidate Segolene Royal was somehow foreshadowing of her own chances. The Clinton folks say Royal's mistake was the fact that she didn't emphasize issue strengths, something they say Clinton's done to the point of even being accused of not being charismatic enough.
Clinton nabbed the support of ex-New York City Mayor David Dinkins yesterday.
The Nation runs a rough profile of Clinton strategist Mark Penn. "Yet Penn is no ordinary pollster. Beyond his connections to the Clintons, he not only polls for America's biggest companies but also runs one of the world's premier PR agencies. This creates a dilemma for Hillary: Penn represents many of the interests whose influence candidate Clinton--in an attempt to appeal to an increasingly populist Democratic electorate--has vowed to curtail. Is what's good for Penn and his business good for Hillary's political career? And furthermore, can she convincingly claim to fight for the average American with Penn guiding strategy in her corner?"
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Here’s The Politico article mentioned above: “Federal tax returns made public by the former New York mayor show that he and his then-wife, Donna Hanover, made personal donations to national, state and city chapters of Planned Parenthood totaling $900 in 1993, 1994, 1998 and 1999. The returns have been on the public record for years, but the detail about Giuliani's support for Planned Parenthood -- along with e-mailed copies of the returns -- was provided to The Politico by aides to a rival campaign, who insisted on not being identified.”
The New York Times: “Addressing the Heritage Foundation, the conservative policy institute, Mr. Giuliani made no mention of abortion. He appeared at ease discussing what he called his history of fiscal restraint as mayor of New York and his strong stance on the military.”
Also during his remarks to the Heritage Foundation last night, NBC’s Carrie Dann says, Giuliani beamed when showing off a New York Post article about newly elected French leader Nicholas Sarkozy, which was emblazoned with the headline "A French Rudy." Giuliani then quipped, "I understand tomorrow they're going to have 'A French Hillary,'" a tongue-in-cheek analogy between his longtime Democratic rival and defeated Socialist party candidate Segolene Royal, who had aspired to become France's first female president.
CONTINUED >>
A new Gallup/USA Today national poll shows Giuliani leading McCain by 14 points (34%-20%), followed by Fred Thompson at 13%, Gingrich at 8%, and Romney at 7%. In the Dem field, Clinton leads Obama by 15 points (38%-23%), followed by Gore at 14%, and Edwards at 12%. Also in the poll, Bush’s approval rating is at 34%, and Clinton has a narrow net positive rating on the feeling thermometer (50% favorable vs. 47% unfavorable).
Meanwhile, a new CNN poll has Giuliani's national primary lead over McCain shrinking to just two points, while Clinton’s lead over Obama has increased to 14 points.
It's a robo-dial survey -- hence a methodology we're not crazy about -- but look for the Romney campaign to view this new Survey USA poll in New Hampshire as a shot in the arm. It's the first poll (we think) in any major presidential primary/caucus state that has had Romney leading both Giuliani and McCain. Romney is the only candidate of the major three to be airing paid advertising. Maybe the spending is finally paying off.
CONTINUED >>
The
AP writes that the Justice Department “won't try to prevent Congress from granting immunity to” former DOJ aide Monica Goodling. “The decision all but guarantees that [she] will be ordered to tell Congress whether she or other Justice officials played politics when hiring and firing prosecutors.”
NBC’s Strickland notes that the Senate is racing against its own internal deadline for crafting immigration legislation. Majority Leader Harry Reid has blocked off the next two week for debate and votes on an immigration reform bill. But at the moment, negotiators don't have a bill and will spend this week trying to cobble one together.
The New York Times, meanwhile, front-pages the Democrats’ challenges on another thorny issue: trade. “Now, the issue poses one of the most important challenges for this new Democratic-led Congress — in some ways, as important to the soul of the Democratic Party as the struggle over the war in Iraq.”
Finally, a tip of the hat to First Read's founding editor, Elizabeth Wilner. You can now find her smart analysis in the pages of The Politico -- and here, when we borrow a line or two for First Read (with full credit, of course).
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Barack Obama has never been shy when it comes to talking about his favorite Chicago sports teams. Remember that introduction he did on Monday Night Football -- in the lead up to his presidential announcement -- when he donned that Chicago Bears hat? Da-da-da-da...
Pushing his energy plan in Detroit today, Obama made another Chicago sports reference -- this time comparing himself to the Chicago Bulls, who continue a seven-game playoff series against Detroit's Pistons tonight. "I actually can relate to the Bulls," he said. "They're a young team. They haven't been there before. You know, sometimes they're going to make a few mistakes, but I think they've got great promise."
Obama's rivals (and Pistons fans) might be quick to remind the senator how his last Chicago sports reference worked out, given that the Bears lost in the Super Bowl.
From NBC's Chuck ToddOver the past week, two new national polls have shown potentially significant movement away from
Hillary Clinton and toward
Barack Obama in general election matchups. In both the
Diageo/Hotline survey (out last Friday) and the
Newsweek poll out today, Obama outperforms Clinton in head-to-head matchups with the leading Republican candidates. This, despite the fact Clinton leads Obama in national primary matchups. Electability seems to be a bigger factor with Democrats than they'd like to admit and if this is a perception that grows and shows up in more polling, it's a troubling sign for the Clinton camp.
Of course, part of Clinton's problem in these Obama comparisons is that her negatives are max-ed out with independents, while Obama is still seen in a positive light. As the campaign wears on and Obama is seen more as a partisan Democrat, his perception with indies will likely get a bit more negative. (Unless he somehow can walk the tightrope of being a partisan and a non-polarizing figure.) Still, for the electability doubts to be creeping in the Democratic primary campaign this early is not good for Clinton. Then again, for candidates named Clinton, things always seem darkest before the dawn.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Last week, we wrote about a strategy memo the Giuliani camp had released on the eve of the GOP presidential debate, arguing that Giuliani's lead in national polls, his performance in head-to-head match ups with Democrats, and his polling in blue states make him the party's clear presidential front-runner. Well today, McCain's campaign has issued its own memo.
The message: that McCain's lead in the early nomination contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will catapult him to victory on Tsunami Tuesday. "As of today, Senator McCain has built a tremendous organization in those states," McCain adviser John Weaver says in the memo. "And, the state by state polling reveals voters in these states have heard his message and are moved by it. The American Research Group released a handful of statewide polls this week showing Senator McCain leading in the key early states: Iowa (+7), New Hampshire (+5) and South Carolina (+13)."
More from Weaver: "These contests will set the stage and establish momentum going into Florida on January 29 and then very quickly into the February 5 contests."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Democrats are moving ahead with a plan that would grant President Bush only half the funding he has requested in the war supplemental -- with the rest coming only after Bush certifies that certain benchmarks have been met.
The plan, which is now heading to a Friday vote on the House floor, would fund the war through the end of July. At that point, the president would be required to certify that 1) the Iraqi government had met or was meeting certain performance benchmarks, and 2) that American troops had achieved the proper level of readiness for military operations. If the president makes those certifications, the remaining funds would then be released.
Senate Democrats have been lukewarm, at best, to this idea, and it's uncertain whether the legislation could ultimately make it to Bush's desk for what would likely be another veto. House Democrats are trying to do everything they can to avoid the perception that they are caving to the president on the timeline issue. One scenario would be for them to pass this on Friday, and then be forced to drop it in conference with the Senate. Even so, they may lose a significant number of the anti-war left if they do indeed put this measure on the floor, which would require them to pick up moderate Republicans to compensate.
From NBC's Mark Murray
And to further demonstrate how passionate California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is about curbing global warming and how determined he is to play a role in the upcoming presidential race -- even if it's congratulating someone on the other side -- he has just released a statement praising Obama's energy plan.
"I applaud Senator Obama for introducing legislation to establish a national version of California's groundbreaking Low Carbon Fuel Standard," Schwarzenegger said. "By adopting our approach of employing enforceable standards and market competition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Senator Obama's legislation, like the bi-partisan legislation proposed by California Senator Dianne Feinstein, can dramatically increase investment in low carbon fuels at the same time it effectively fights climate change, expands consumer choice and rewards innovation."
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a speech today at the Detroit Economic Club, Barack Obama called for raising Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards by 4% each year -- about a mile per gallon -- to help reduce America's dependence on foreign oil. And to entice an auto industry that has resisted such moves in the past, Obama proposed to have the federal government subsidize the industry's enormous health-care costs if manufacturers invest the savings to produce more fuel-efficient cars. "Our goal is not to destroy the industry, but to help bring it into the 21st Century," he said. "So if the auto industry is prepared to step up to its responsibilities, we should be prepared to help."
Obama's speech today is just another example of how presidential candidates -- especially those on the Democratic side -- are trying to one-up each other on energy. Back in March, John Edwards unveiled a plan that would reduce greenhouse gases by 15% by 2020, and 80% by 2050. And last month, Dodd announced his own comprehensive plan to cut greenhouse gases by 80%.
"In the days and months after September 11, Americans were waiting to be called to something larger than themselves," Obama said today. "This is our generation's chance to answer that call. Meeting the challenge posed by our oil dependence won't require us to build the massive war machine that Franklin Roosevelt called for some many years ago, but it will require the same sense of shared sacrifice and responsibility from all of us."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
The group Upstream Analysis has highlighted the words that the Republican presidential candidates mentioned the most at last week's debate. Some of the words are revealing.
Brownback: engage, ideas, key, lead, regimes
Gilmore: going, president, Virginia, conservative
Giuliani: York, going, decision
Huckabee: faith, jobs, decision
Hunter: border, fence
McCain: president, states, united, spending
Paul: policy, foreign, government, war, tax
Romney: American, America, decision, government, nation
Tancredo: believe, going, spending, states, united
Thompson: states, America, president
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** What We Know…: Now that the first round of presidential debates has concluded, we know that the top-tier GOP candidates are divided more on the issues (immigration, stem cells, and even abortion) than their Democratic counterparts are. We also know which Dems don’t have a gun in their household and don’t believe there’s a Global War on Terror, and which Republicans don’t believe in evolution. Yet perhaps most importantly, we know that if things stay at their present course and if Ron Paul or Tommy Thompson don’t win the GOP nomination, that the general election -- once again -- will be fought over the Iraq war.
*** … And What We Don’t: Whether Giuliani’s and Obama’s uneven performances will stop the momentum their campaigns have been building; when the candidates will actually begin to engage one another; and if any of the debates will end up impacting either nomination contest. (Raise your hand if you can still remember any Dem debate from ’03 and ’04?)
*** Iraq, Iraq, Iraq: The fight over ending the war in Iraq has been the dominant theme of the Dem campaigns over the past few days. It's not quite a circular firing squad, but consider: Dodd criticized Edwards for not being in the Senate to help fight for the war's end, while Edwards criticized Clinton for her proposal to de-authorize the war later this year, saying the same thing was done in Vietnam and the war continued another three years. By the way, if Congress de-authorizes the war, then there will have to be some re-authorization to fund the remaining troops.
*** Queen Hillary? In his New York Times column today, Nicholas Kristof raises a potential problem for Clinton’s candidacy that few have been talking about: “If Mrs. Clinton were elected and served two terms, then for seven consecutive presidential terms the White House would have been in the hands of just two families. That’s just not the kind of equal-opportunity democracy we aspire to.” Kristof brings up the point that electing the first female president would open up the political process. “But, as in Argentina or Bangladesh, the election of a first woman loses much of its significance if she has enjoyed a political shortcut as a predecessor’s wife.” More proof that the thing holding Clinton back is her last name not her gender?
*** The Early Reviews Are In: Fred Thompson perhaps doesn’t get the bounce out of his Friday speech that his supporters were hoping for. Bob Novak wasn’t impressed. And in an examination of his writings and speeches, the Sunday Washington Post compared him to -- of all people -- John McCain.
*** On the Trail: Giuliani addresses the Heritage Foundation in DC; McCain is in Iowa; and Obama speaks to the Detroit Economic Club (where he will talk about raising fuel standards), while his wife Michelle stumps on his behalf in New Hampshire.
The Raleigh News & Observer: “Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards said Sunday that Congress should continue to push the president to force the end of American involvement in Iraq. ‘The American people spoke very clearly in the last election,’ Edwards said on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos. ‘They said they wanted a different course in Iraq. The power that the Congress has to stop this war is the funding authority. ... The way for Congress to stand firm is for Congress to resubmit another bill funding the troops and with a timetable for withdrawal.’ He dismissed the suggestion by Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, a rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, that Edwards would be in a better position to oppose the war if he had remained in the Senate. Edwards also dismissed the suggestion by … Clinton … that Congress should revoke authorization of the war.”
The Des Moines Register: “Presidential candidate Barack Obama called for Iowans to lobby their U.S. senators to end the war in Iraq during a campaign stop here Sunday… ‘If everyone here makes the decision that they are going to bring about change in this country, change is going to come,’ he said, adding: ‘Not only that but you’ll elect a new president named Barack Obama.’”
Meanwhile, on the GOP side of things, House Minority Leader John Boehner warned the White House that Republican support on the Hill could waiver if progress in Iraq isn't visible soon. Boehner said: "By the time we get to September or October, members are going to want to know how well this is working, and if it isn't, what's Plan B."
BIDEN: Biden campaigned over the weekend in Cedar Rapids, IA, where he talked about Iraq and seemed to differ from the withdrawal-happy front-runners. "As your president, if I ended the war immediately, does anybody think things would be secure in Iraq or the Middle East? The question is not if we leave, which is only a matter of time, but how we leave."
CLINTON: Her campaign is pressing ahead with a push to increase the number of female donors. "Her effort is being coupled with a fresh push by Emily's List, the nation's largest political action committee, which recently mailed its supporters and appealed to them to contribute to Clinton's campaign."
On Saturday, Clinton was in Cleveland to talk about education. Clinton was introduced to the crowd by African-American Congresswoman Stephanie Tubbs Jones, a Cleveland Democrat and graduate of Cleveland City Schools. Tubbs Jones is co-chair of her election campaign and organized the event.
More from the Kristof column mentioned above: “Particularly after George W. Bush rose to the White House partly because he inherited a name and rolodexes of donors from a previous president, we should take a deep breath because replacing one dynasty with another.”
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution does a semi-tongue-in-cheek report on the fact that Gingrich is no longer a Georgia resident; he lives in Northern Virginia.
Per NBC’s Abby Livingston, Gingrich made some interesting comments about the primary calendar at a stakeout yesterday. He said, “Here is a prediction: there are two possibilities after February 5th, and nobody understands this yet. Possibility One is that we have nominated somebody in both parties. Possibility Two is we have locked in four or five candidates in both parties, and we will have the first brokered convention since 1952. There is no reason to believe any one person is going to win a majority in twenty five states the same day, and it's more likely that their consultants are gonna say, 'Okay, Romney is going to go to Michigan and Utah and Massachusetts. And you know Giuliani is going to go to New York and California. And McCain is going to go to Florida. [A]nd Thompson, if he gets in, is going to do Tennessee, South Carolina, and Georgia.’”
More from Gingrich: “You're suddenly going to have three, four, five, or six candidates with delegates. Now why would they drop out? They're no more primaries. They have no great reason to drop out. And you're just going to have a total mess. This thing is going to blow up. I think the odds are even money. It either will lead to a nominee in both parties, which is unlikely – ‘cause nobody is anywhere close to 50%. Or it will lead to the first brokered conventions since 1952.”
CONTINUED >>
Florida moving its primary to January 29, leapfrogging Tsunami Tuesday (the earliest the two parties were sanctioning primaries or caucuses), probably guarantees that the calendar chaos will end after 2008. But that doesn't mean we won't have one cycle of chaos this year.
Meanwhile, the New York Times writes how California moving up its primary to February has increased the state’s clout in presidential politics. “The result is not just a change in tactics; it is altering the dialogue of the presidential contest in substantive ways. It is forcing candidates to turn their attention to issues, debates and controversies that have historically drawn little attention on the early playing fields of Iowa and New Hampshire.”
With no major Massachusetts Democrat running for president this cycle, the financial battle for Boston is intense between Obama and Clinton -- with both finding lots of success.
Newsweek examines how all the presidential candidates -- Democrat and Republican -- are trying to invoke Harry Truman. Of course, so is the current president.
Bush’s job-approval rating has sunk to 28%, according to a new Newsweek poll; it's his lowest number ever in this survey.
The Boston Globe does a case study on the US attorneys controversy via the prism of western Missouri's prosecutor -- and the transition there from the old prosecutor there (who focused sporadically on voter-fraud cases) to the new one (who made them a priority).
Meanwhile, the Washington Post looks deeper into the firing of the Seattle-based US attorney, which apparently almost came a year and a half earlier because of a dispute with the Justice Department over how hard he was looking into the assassination of a federal prosecutor. "Several officials familiar with the investigation said McKay and other officials in Seattle believed that senior Justice officials were not paying enough attention to the case. Sampson did not cite specifics, saying only that McKay had demanded actions that led to conflicts, congressional aides familiar with his account said."
CONTINUED >>
Iraq is consuming everything politically, including the Democrats’ domestic agenda. Some Dem pollsters have speculated to First Read at various times over the last few months that the languishing approval rating for Congress has
both to do with lack of movement on Iraq
and a lack of focus on domestic issues. The
Washington Post adds: "Not a single priority on the Democrats' agenda has been enacted, and some in the party are growing nervous that the ‘do nothing’ tag they slapped on Republicans last year could come back to haunt them."
From NBC's Mark Murray and John Yang
Hillary Clinton's proposal to repeal the 2002 war authorization is being criticized from both the right and the left. At his on-the-record, off-camera gaggle this morning, deputy White House press secretary Tony Fratto called it "a political stunt."
Meanwhile, John Edwards -- who has implicitly criticized Clinton for her refusal to apologize for her war authorization vote -- released this statement today, which casts doubt on Clinton's proposal without naming her. "This is deja vu all over again. We saw it in Vietnam and we saw it earlier this year. We don't need any more non-binding resolutions or big statements; we need to end the war... In 1971, Congress repealed the resolution authorizing the Vietnam War -- and the war continued for four long years until Congress stopped funding it."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
A brand-new Gallup survey has Hillary Clinton's positive/negative rating in the net negative territory (48%/51%).
Gallup says that Clinton's image has consistently moved into the negative territory as this campaign has progressed.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray in Simi Valley, CA
*** Mirror Images: Maybe it's just us, but the most striking impression from last night's GOP presidential debate was how similar it was to the Democratic one. Like the Dem debate, the participants didn't really engage each other, and they actually agreed on many issues. What's more, the buzz candidate (Giuliani, like Obama) ended up disappointing many of the observers. The telegenic one (Romney, like Edwards) demonstrated why many in the party's base like him so much. And the long-standing front-runner (McCain, like Clinton) was solid and reminded us why this person -- despite the obvious dents in his/her armor -- still is one of the party's favorites. The biggest difference? There was no disruptive Gravel at last night’s debate.
*** Still W's Party: NBC's Carrie Dann notes that the candidates mentioned Ronald Reagan's name a whopping 19 times last night. Despite that (and despite the presence of the popular Schwarzenegger and Nancy Reagan in the front row), it was clear to us that this remains George W. Bush's party, even as the candidates did their best in talking about how their administrations would be different. Except Paul, the candidates largely backed the Iraq war; even with Nancy Reagan in the room, most of them opposed her call for expanding embryonic stem cell research; and all of them salivated over tax cuts. McCain and perhaps Huckabee (who wasn’t shy about saying that Rumsfeld should have been fired before last year’s midterms) were the ones who clearly tried to separate themselves from Bush. Yet even McCain is tied to him by the biggest issue of all: Iraq.
*** Giuliani: "OK" doesn't sum up his performance -- it was his response to Chris Matthews’ question if it would be a good day if Roe v. Wade were overturned. “It would be OK,” he said. He started off strong, talking about his achievements as mayor of New York and bringing optimism back to the country. But the rest of his performance was uneven.
*** McCain: There was less consensus about McCain’s when one traveled the spin room. Rival camps did their best to bring up his temper, pitching to reporters of all stripes that the comment about "gates of Hell" was an angry moment. He was confident on the issue of the war, but he also didn't allow himself to look shaky on some social issues that he hasn't enjoyed talking about in the past. Overall, McCain showed that experience with debate formats like last night's was an advantage.
*** Romney: The guy looks great on TV, doesn’t he? He was articulate, and gave a good defense of his pro-life conversion (pointing out that plenty of other famous Republicans had a change of heart as well). If McCain won on the substance, Romney clearly won on style. Yet if there are lingering questions about Obama’s experience -- especially in this post-9/11 world -- you’d have to argue that’s also true for Romney.
*** Brownback: His performance didn’t surprise us a bit: He was the strongest social conservative in the room. But what kind of general-election candidate is he? And if the goal was to separate himself from the rest of the second-tier candidates, he wasn't successful. If anything, one could argue a few other second-tiers did a better job of sticking out than Brownback.
*** Huckabee: He was the calm, cool, and disarming guy we’ve seen for the past couple of years. Which raises the question: Why didn’t he try harder -- a year or two ago -- to build an infrastructure to try to win the nomination?
*** Gilmore: Much like Dodd a week ago, he didn’t really own a moment. But he also showed that he won't be a shrinking violet in these group sessions.
*** Hunter: Anyone else surprised by Hunter's stronger-than-expected performance? He seemed to match McCain on answering the Iraq/Iran questions with authority. And, perhaps more importantly for his campaign, he stood out immigration more so than the candidate who was supposed to be the anti-immigration candidate: Tom Tancredo.
*** Thompson: No candidate looked more uncomfortable last night than Thompson, although he certainly got the point across about how many vetoes he issued as governor of Wisconsin. By the way, Thompson is pulling back from a comment he said about whether private employers should be allowed to discriminate against gay people. At the debate, he said yes, but he now says (in a phoner to CNN) that he misspoke because he didn't hear the question.
*** Tancredo: Perhaps the biggest sign of how cordial last night’s debate was Tancredo’s tone on immigration. Don’t get us wrong, he’s still against it -- but he didn’t raise his voice or really engage his rivals. When re-watching the debate, Tancredo's folks better figure out how to not let Duncan Hunter steal his immigration thunder.
*** Paul: He was no Gravel (thankfully). Some of his responses - especially on Iraq - demonstrated why the GOP is no longer a party of libertarians.
The Boston Globe: "Facing each other for the first time, the candidates made mostly veiled criticisms of one another and stuck to their scripts in advocating fiscal restraint, a hard line against Iran, and a belief that their party will hold onto the White House despite a dismal showing in midterm elections last fall and an unpopular sitting president."
The Washington Post: “The GOP candidates found much to agree on when the questions turned to foreign policy, with all but one, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, supporting President Bush's troop buildup in Iraq and taking a hard line against Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. But they were critical of the president's management of the war. McCain also made it clear that he would have been far tougher in restraining spending than Bush has been… The debate produced no clear winners or losers. The three candidates who top most national polls -- Giuliani, McCain and Romney -- made forceful presentations, but those struggling for attention also generally acquitted themselves well.”
The New York Times sums up the debate this way: “The leading candidates offered sharply contrasting views of Mr. Bush himself. But they also differed on an array of social issues - abortion, stem cell research, immigration and evolution - in a debate that highlighted a party in flux as it struggles to figure out how to retain the White House for a third consecutive term.”
The Wall Street Journal: “Several candidates made reference to the Bush administration's mismanagement of the four-year-old war in Iraq, as if that were a given. Arizona Sen. John McCain defended his support for the war now, saying ‘it's on the right track.’ But he added, as he does routinely on the campaign trail, ‘The war was terribly mismanaged and we now have to fix a lot of the mistakes that were made.’… The careful criticism of Mr. Bush, usually without naming him, reflected the needle that Republicans must thread. While the president and the war are unpopular with a majority of Americans, both are supported by a majority of Republican voters.”
The Washington Times leads with Giuliani’s “OK” on abortion. Giuliani “said last night that he would be ‘OK’ with a Supreme Court repealing Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that established a constitutional right to abortion. But Mr. Giuliani said he would approve of the justices upholding the decision -- a sharp contrast with the nine other candidates on the stage for the first Republican primary debate, who said they would welcome its overturn and one even saying that would be ‘the greatest day in the country's history.’”
The take from MSNBC debate partner The Politico: “The candidates, taking the stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., did everything possible to cloak themselves in the mantle of the 40th president’s sense of strength and optimism. But when it came to the 43rd president, George W. Bush, there were very few encouraging words.”
The Los Angeles Times features this exchange, “when moderator Chris Matthews of MSNBC quoted from a recent interview in which former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney stated that it was ‘not worth moving heaven and Earth, spending billions of dollars’ to capture Osama bin Laden. Romney backpedaled somewhat… ‘Can we move heaven and Earth to do it?’ Matthews interrupted. ‘We'll move everything to get him. But I don't want to buy into the Democratic pitch that this is all about one person - Osama bin Laden - because after we get him, there's going to be another and another,’ Romney said.”
“McCain, who previously called Romney's statement naive, responded vigorously. ‘We will track him down,’ McCain said. ‘We will capture him. We will bring him to justice, and I will follow him to the gates of hell.’”
Politico's Roger Simon gave the debate to Romney, with McCain second and Rudy third.
Former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan: "If we view the proceedings in vulgar and reductive Who Won, Who Lost terms, and let's, Mitt Romney won, Rudy Giuliani lost, and John McCain is still in."
The Des Moines Register's Yepsen gave the night to McCain.
And for an interesting look at last night's debate through the prism of a dial-testing focus group, check out strategist Rich Thau's messagejury.com. According to his group of Iowa testers, McCain had a more difficult time than many pundits perceived.
CLINTON: Would this have received more attention on any day other than the one of the first GOP debate? Maybe that’s why it came out yesterday… NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that Clinton yesterday announced plans to offer legislation that would end (or "sunset") the current congressional Iraq war authorization on October 5, 2007-- the five-year anniversary of the original authorization vote. In a short speech on the Senate floor, Clinton said the original authorization "has run its course. It is time to reverse the failed policies of Pres. Bush and to end this war as soon as possible."
The New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton’s proposal brings her full circle on Iraq - she supported the war measure five years ago - and it sharpens her own political positioning at a time when Democrats are vying to confront the White House… Now, her advisers say, a vote to withdraw authorization would make plain to antiwar and liberal Democrats that she was repudiating her 2002 vote. The hope among her aides was that demands by antiwar voters for her to apologize for her vote would be rendered moot.”
OBAMA: The Chicago Tribune reports that the Secret Service “assigned a team to the Illinois Democrat - the earliest point in a campaign cycle at which the agency has ever taken responsibility for a candidate not already under its protection as an office holder. Several congressional sources familiar with the situation say there was no specific event or threat that triggered the decision, but that a bipartisan panel of congressional leaders reviewed threats to Obama on Web sites and in letters before recommending special protection.”
Some of the GOP candidates stay in California after the debate. McCain visits Google headquarters; Romney is in Valencia and Fresno for private finance events; Giuliani heads to Iowa to discuss small business economic issues; Brownback campaigns in Iowa; and Huckabee is in New Hampshire.
And Fred Thompson, whose presence was felt at the debate (in at least one question) even though he didn’t participate, appears in the flesh in California as he delivers a speech to the Lincoln Club of Orange County around 11:30 pm ET.
The
Miami Herald covers Florida’s move to push up its primary to January 29. The big takeaway: The Florida Democrats are contemplating a post-February 5 caucus, so that they don't lose delegates for what would
then become a beauty contest primary on January 29.
From NBC's Carrie Dann and Mark Murray
We just replayed the tape to answer the question some of you asked: Which candidates raised their hands when Chris Matthews asked them if they don't believe in evolution?
Three did: Brownback, Huckabee, and Tancredo.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
The most popular person at the debate? It was clearly Ronald Reagan. The candidates invoked his name a whopping 19 times. Giuliani led the pack with five mentions of Reagan; McCain, Romney, and Thompson each gave him three shout-outs; Hunter was at two; and Huckabee, Gilmore, and Brownback all mentioned him once.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Fred Thompson didn't participate in tonight's debate, but the people who are hoping he runs did their best to make his presence felt -- and take a veiled shot at his possible GOP rivals. “Tonight, we saw ten fine politicians stand side-by-side and do their very best to inspire Republican voters," Dean Rice, treasurer of the Draft Fred Thompson 2008 Committee, said in a statement after the debate. "We also saw these men standing under the six-foot-five-inch shadow of Senator Fred Thompson and his possible entry into this race."
More: “We heard many references this evening to President Ronald Reagan. In fact, we watched a 90 minute sprint between podiums by candidates trying to lay hold to the Reagan mantle... Only one person in the potential field today carries that same confidence. Although he was not on stage tonight and may the only candidate not comparing himself to Ronald Reagan, voters are anxiously awaiting Fred Thompson to enter this race.”
-- McCain solid
-- Hunter surprisingly strong from the second tier competitors
-- No Mike Gravels
-- All candidates afraid of criticizing each other, criticizing Bush and criticizing Iraq
-- Elephant in the room: Though McCain was solid, I'm guessing Fred Thompson saw nothing tonight that made him fearful of getting in
Four guys seemed ready for this debate, the other six were, well, not ready for prime time. The "ready" candidates on this stage tonight: McCain, Hunter, Romney and Huckabee.
The other six... shaky at best.
Big story of the night: Giuliani's tentative performance. This is almost a carbon copy of last week. The hot buzz candidate (Obama vs. Rudy) is struggling in their debut while the old reliables (Clinton vs. McCain) showed that experience in this format matters.
Hunter seems more aggressive on the immigration issue than Tancredo. If Hunter can raise money, he'd be one to watch. He's very composed and doing surprisingly well IMHO.
First time these candidates showed some animation is on this tax cut question. It's the lone thing that truly unites this party. If Republicans ever start losing the tax issue, they'd have an even more serious problem than they have now.
Is Romney doing very well or is he doing TOO well... Is he too ready for TV? Depends on who's watching. Republican voters like made for TV candidates.
Surprisingly, the candidate who seems to be struggling the most with the format -- Tommy Thompson
Did Rudy actually try and go to McCain's right on stem cells? Sure sounded that way to me.
This debate is VERY tame, so tame that Tancredo's attacks on immigration are being done with grace.
Editor's note: Only Chuck is live blogging at this point as Mark helps time the candidate's responses. So I'll stop preceeding everything with "From NBC's Chuck Todd."
McCain looks to be the most prepared tonight. His answers are crisp and ready for air. It's the difference between doing this before and doing this for the first time. Ask Barack Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton from last week. Obama wasn't ready for the format, Edwards and Clinton were.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Rudy's sole goal tonight: prove electability. Analyze every answer he's given and it's all been framed through the prism of "electability."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Compare how many times the candidates mention Reagan vs. Lieberman. Brownback just made the first mention; it won't be the last.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHuckabee is not telling the truth. He did INDEED attack Romney about what he said about his faith. This just shows you that these guys realize this is their FIRST impression and they are desperate to look like, well, COMPASSIONATE conservatives.
***UPDATE*** (5/7) Many folks, including the
Huckabee campaign, took issue with the word "lie" in my headline describing Huckabee pulling back on what he said re: Romney and his faith. Huckabee's answer during the debate about faith and public life was not nearly as direct regarding Romney as his answer was when asked on the ABC program, "This Week" a few weeks earlier. I understand that "lie" is a charged word and this certainly doesn't rank up there with real campaign lies. But it was an attempt by Huckabee to wiggle out of his original criticism of Romney. In the heat of the moment, I chose the wrong word, but I don't regret pointing out what still appears to be an inconsistency between what Huckabee said during the debate and what he said on "This Week." My apologies for waiting until today to address this issue.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWhy doesn't Duncan Hunter smile? He's a serious guy; carries himself well... but he needs to smile... BTW, Ron Paul is not attempting to be a gadfly... he's also carrying himself well.
From NBC's Chuck ToddRudy Giuliani STILL won't give a straight answer on what he thinks about the repeal of Roe; that "OK" is going to be the "OK" heard around the conservative world.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIt was 8-2 against allowing Arnold or Mel Martinez to legally run for president. Ouch.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Wow, these guys are petrified of engaging each other. Even when baited by the moderators, neither Gilmore nor Romney would do it...
From NBC's Chuck ToddTancredo had trouble with Iran. We're guessing he didn't prep as much on Iran as on Iraq.
From NBC's Chuck ToddFirst candidate to actually answer a moderator's question: John McCain, he actually referred to the word "tripwire" on Iran... that will be heavily covered.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Looks like the Republican candidates took the same "tame" pill the Dem candidates took last week when it comes to Iraq... They simply want to answer quickly and move on. This puts us, as sponsors, in a difficult position. It's the most important issue and yet the candidates are afraid to deal with it in anything other than soundbites.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Give Tommy Thompson credit, he's got his Iraq plan down in a solid 60-second answer. BTW, Romney's tan stands out compared to the other candidates right now... that's good for TV... question is, is it TOO good.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Rudy mentions immigration fairly high up; mentions health care fairly high up; that's very, um, Democratic of him. Or to put another away, very swing voter of him.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The Romney campaign introduced a new facet to debate rapid response with
this special Web site.
From NBC's Mark Murray
We just spotted Mike Huckabee stretching his quad muscle. "I just went running this morning," he tells the Reagan Library aide who's supervising his movements.
From NBC's Mark Murray:
The candidates just traveled up to the third floor of the Reagan Library to have their picture taken with Nancy Reagan. Before heading out, one of the organizers took roll of the assembled ten candidates. "Gov. Huckabee," she said.
"Here," he replied. And so on....
It was like grade school all over again
From NBC's Mark MurrayThe scene inside the candidates' holding rooms is something to see. The rooms go down one hallway, five rooms on either side. We spotted surrogates lounging inside of them -- like Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., in McCain's. And top aides patrol the outside of each room.
Because Chuck and Mark are on the scene in Simi Valley, because there are
550 days until Election Day, and because fairness demands it after their coverage of the
Democratic debate last week, we'll be live blogging tonight's Republican debate. Both are perched tonight in the MSNBC control room and both will file frequent dispatches as they hear or see things that inspire comment. I'll also post occassional highlights from
Hardblogger, where the usual cast of characters will weigh in with their thoughts. As always, you can join the conversation, too, by clicking "Discuss" below any post. And if you really feel like multi-tasking, you can watch the live stream of the debate on MSNBC.com
here.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says the Bush Administration came forward today with proposals for a new Iraq supplemental. And while President Bush's veto stemmed primarily from his opposition to the bill's timetable for troops withdrawal, Reid said "there is nothing that's off the table, including timetables."
In his weekly off-camera briefing, Reid refused to give details of his meeting today with White House chief of staff Josh Bolten, but acknowledged that Bolten came to the negotiating table with some ideas. "That was part of the deal," Reid told reporters. "The ball's in the president's court. He vetoed it and they had to come forward with some proposals. And they did."
While Reid held firm that timetables for withdrawal could still be part of a new funding bill, he quickly added, "There are many different things that can be done in this legislation to focus on ending this war, not just timetables."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Late yesterday -- on the eve of tonight's debate -- the Giuliani campaign released a memo to supporters arguing that the former New York mayor is the clear GOP presidential front-runner and has wide appeal in a general election. "Mayor Giuliani has led in every major national poll from the last 14 weeks," the memo says. "Since [he] made clear his intention to seek the Republican nomination for President, he has maintained a double digit lead over his rivals... We expect the dynamics of the Republican race may change in the coming months. However, we are confident we have built strong and durable support."
The memo goes on to say that Giuliani can compete in large blue states (like California, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania), and he fares better than his GOP rivals in head-to-head match ups with the Democratic front-runners. "Rudy Giuliani may be the only Republican candidate that can compete in 2008 against the Democratic nominee. Mayor Giuliani dramatically swings the Gallup Poll’s generic ballot gap from a 15-point Republican deficit, to a 2-point lead over Senator Clinton and a 9-point lead over Senator Obama. Since the beginning of February, Rudy Giuliani has led Hillary Clinton in every major national poll conducted by an average of 4-points."
Of course, perhaps Giuliani's biggest challenge is winning the GOP nomination, and victory won't come easy. But Team Rudy is clearly trying to portray him as the candidate to beat.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Right after the news that Obama's campaign took control of his MySpace page away from the 29-year-old paralegal who created it -- which sparked anger on liberal blogs -- Obama today sent a letter to DNC chairman Howard Dean, urging the party to make video of any DNC-sponsored debates available to the public. Such a move would obviously benefit bloggers, who would use the video.
In the letter to Dean, Obama said, "As you know, the Internet has enabled an extraordinary range of citizens to participate in the political dialogue around this election. Much of that participation will take the form of citizen generated content. We, as a Party, should do everything that we can to encourage this participation."
The Obama campaign tells First Read that the MySpace flap had nothing to do with Obama's call to make the debate video available to the public. "This is one way to open up the political process and make it more accessible to all Americans," said spokesman Bill Burton.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Florida -- the state that gave us that the wild and contentious recount of 2000 -- is slated to move up its presidential primary to January 29. That would make it the fourth Democratic nominating contest (after Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire, but on the same day as South Carolina).
Per the AP, the Florida House just passed legislation to move up the primary to this date. "Gov. Charlie Crist, who has consistently voiced his support for giving America's fourth-largest state more say in the presidential nominating process, is expected to sign the bill. The House voted 118-0 to pass the measure. The Florida Senate last week voted for the plan."
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray in Simi Valley, CA
*** Let's Get Ready to Rumble, Part II: A week after the Democratic presidential candidates debated -- very politely -- 10 Republicans gather here at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to participate in the first GOP presidential debate. It will be moderated by Chris Matthews, in partnership with The Politico, and will air on MSNBC at 8:00 pm ET. Questions on our mind: Will the GOPers engage more than the Democrats did? (We bet they will; McCain, especially, has plenty of incentive to stake his ground as the consistent conservative.) Which non-frontrunner will pull a Biden and get noticed? Which one(s) won't? And who will be this week's Gravel?
*** Some Other Thoughts: McCain has a very aggressive fundraising goal he is trying to reach this quarter and needs a strong debate performance to prove to key activists and donors that he’s still got it. Giuliani is a wild card tonight. Remember, as our former colleague Elizabeth Wilner points out, it’s been 10 years (1997) since Giuliani has participated in a debate. Romney’s past debate performances, of course, have been on YouTube for months because of things he said on abortion and gay rights in his 1994 and 2002 debates.
*** Star Wars: Unlike last week, one could argue that those who will be in the audience tonight -- Arnold Schwarzenegger and Nancy Reagan -- might be as big of stars as the actual debaters on the stage. And that's interesting because Schwarzenegger (with his leftward turn and call to combat global warming) and Reagan (with her advocacy of stem-cell research) offer a different face of the Republican Party than we've seen in the White House and with some of the heirs to the GOP throne.
*** A GOP In Trouble? Our last installment leading up to today's debate looks at the issue of competency. After the Democrats' decades-long dominance of Congress and (sometimes) the White House following the New Deal, taxes got too high and the government got too bloated. That, in part, laid the foundation for the '94 revolution and the GOP's control of the White House for 18 out of the last 26 years. But the mismanagement of Iraq, Katrina, and even Walter Reed raises this question: Can a party whose chief tenet is limited government actually govern, especially when it controls both the Congress and the White House? As Alan Wolfe wrote in the Washington Monthly last year, "Conservatives cannot govern well for the same reason that vegetarians cannot prepare a world-class boeuf bourguignon: If you believe that what you are called upon to do is wrong, you are not likely to do it very well." (Robert Kuttner and Bill Kristol debate this very topic today at the National Press Club.)
*** A Sense of Urgency? Dodd’s campaign yesterday took a hard jab at Edwards on the Iraq war, after Edwards unveiled his new TV ad. When he started his presidential bid, Dodd -- with all of his years in the Senate -- probably never thought he’d have to play second fiddle to the front-runners or be the recipient of profiles wondering why he’s even running. But his campaign’s jab at Edwards, in addition to his advocacy for Feingold-Reid, suggests that the Connecticut senator is feeling a sense of urgency to catch fire sooner than the fall. Does this mean we'll see a much more combative Dodd over the next few weeks?
*** On the Trail: Dodd is in Des Moines, IA for a 21st Century Democrats Luncheon, Edwards campaigns in Tucson, AZ, and Richardson addresses the National Conference of Black Mayors in Baton Rouge, LA.
The AP previews tonight’s debate: “Giuliani, McCain and Romney all kept their public campaign schedules relatively light over the past few days, opting to spend as much time as possible huddling with aides to rehearse their responses to expected questions on top issues such as Iraq, immigration, taxes, abortion, gay marriage and terrorism.” More: “The Reagan library [is] a fitting setting. Most, if not all, of the Republican candidates have embraced Reagan's legacy and called for their party to return to the small-government, low-tax, strong-military ideals he espoused.”
But the New York Times wonders if the contenders will want to embrace another Republican: George W. Bush. “Do they embrace him as a means of appealing to the conservative voters who tend to decide Republican primaries? Or do they break from him in an effort to show that they will lead the nation in a new direction? Do they applaud his policies or question his competence - or both?”
The New York Times also focuses on Giuliani, who hasn’t debated since 1997, when he faced off against mayoral challenger Ruth Messinger. It asks which Rudy will show up: “The hard-hitting prosecutor? Or Mr. Nice Guy? Mr. Giuliani has played both in his short debate history.”
CONTINUED >>
After the Democrats failed yesterday to override Bush’s veto of the Iraq supplemental, they now must turn to Plan B. And the Washington Post says that Democratic leaders offered their first concession: “an agreement to drop their demand for a timeline to bring troops home from Iraq… But party leaders made it clear that the next bill will have to include language that influences war policy. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) outlined a second measure that would step up Iraqi accountability, ‘transition’ the U.S. military role and show ‘a reasonable way to end this war.’”
Yet the New York Times writes that Democrats must cobble together a Plan B that would appeal to both the conservative Ben Nelson (D) and liberal Russ Feingold (D) -- which isn’t an easy task.
The Los Angeles Times, meanwhile, looks at the Republicans. “As Democrats start work on a new war spending bill to replace the one President Bush vetoed, at least three Republican senators who opposed the Democratic withdrawal plan said Wednesday that the new bill should include so-called benchmarks for the Iraqi government to meet.”
BIDEN: The RNC has released a web video hitting Joe Biden for his “shove down” Bush’s “throat” comment regarding an Iraq supplemental.
Meanwhile, Biden was in San Francisco campaigning yesterday where he warned Bush that Republican support for the war was on the verge of collapsing.
DODD: Anyone surprised that Ned Lamont’s support for Chris Dodd hasn’t gotten more play in the liberal blogosphere? How come Dodd isn’t getting more props from those anti-war folks who, right now, seem to be aligning with John Edwards?
Maybe this lack of respect in the blogosphere is why Dodd’s camp took a shot at Edwards yesterday. Per the Fix’s Cillizza: “‘As Senator Dodd was the first candidate to support the Reid-Feingold measure, we agree that Democrats in the Senate should stand up to a President who stubbornly refuses to change his failed policy in Iraq," said [Dodd spokeswoman] Christy Setzer. ‘We wish that Senator Edwards was still in the Senate for this important fight.’ Setzer added, ‘If we can't get his vote in the Senate, of course we would welcome Senator Edwards ' support for Senator Dodd's plan, which would safely re-deploy out troops and bring an end to this war within on year rather than the incremental eighteen-month approach he has proposed.’”
CONTINUED >>
USA Today examines the difficult political environment the GOP presidential candidates are facing today. “As the Republican contenders gather tonight at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., for their first debate, some of them acknowledge that the nominee who emerges from their ranks isn't likely to be as fortunate as President Reagan. His campaign for the White House in 1980 was boosted by a political climate that had soured toward Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter amid angst about inflation, energy supplies and American hostages held in Iran.”
ROMNEY: Of the three major candidates, it seems that Romney is trying brag about his personal closeness to the Bush family more than the rest. His campaign let it be known that Romney talked privately with President Bush yesterday about a variety of things, including the Iraq supplemental showdown. Bush 41 has previously said nice things about the Massachusetts governor. and it’s an open secret in Florida circles that Jeb Bush seems to favor Romney.
In Romney’s appearance on the Tonight Show last night, the highlight had to be Leno opening with a shot at Romney's real first name "Willard," and then Leno took a shot at the name "Mitt." We end up finding out that the Mitt came from a cousin of Romney's who played football for the Chicago Bears in the '20s. Go figure.
F. THOMPSON: The Los Angeles Times profiles Thompson in advance of his speech to Orange County Republicans on Friday, noting that he never dreamed of becoming a Hollywood actor but ended up one anyway. “Now, the accidental actor is being urged to take another role he has not been gunning for, as a growing crowd of conservatives clamors for him to run for the Republican nomination for president… If Thompson answers the conservatives' call to enter the race … a prominent question will come with him: Will voters see a real-life American leader, or someone who only plays one on the screen?”
A new Quinnipiac national poll has both Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective primary fields. However, in general election match-ups, the Democrat who runs strongest against Giuliani is Obama, not Clinton.
And conspiracy theorists in Nebraska picked up on the news that Chuck Hagel and Michael Bloomberg dined together this week, noting one topic of conversation had to be Unity ’08 and the possibility of running as a third party ticket. We wouldn’t normally note a blog conspiracy like this unless we thought they were on to something. And we’ve heard more than one rumor involving Hagel, Bloomberg, and third parties.
The New York Times writes that the Justice Department has begun to investigate whether former DOJ aide Monica Goodling -- who has invoked the 5th Amendment in the US attorneys controversy -- “improperly tried to fill vacancies for career prosecutors at the agency with Republicans loyal to the Bush administration,” which the paper says is potentially a violation of civil service laws.
The Washington Post: “The revelations about Goodling were among several developments yesterday in connection with the firings, including a new subpoena seeking presidential adviser Karl Rove's e-mails and new accusations from two of the dismissed U.S. attorneys. In newly released statements, the two alleged that they were threatened by Deputy Attorney General Paul J. McNulty's chief of staff immediately before Gonzales testified in the Senate in January.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd
John Edwards' campaign sent a release late this afternoon announcing their submission of a question for tomorrow's GOP presidential debate, set to air on MSNBC in cooperation with the Politico.com. About a third of tomorrow night's debate questions will be from viewer/reader submissions to Politico.com. Edwards' question (which, probably won't make air): "Has the Bush doctrine of a Global War on Terror backfired? Does the president's focus suggest a fixed enemy that can be defeated through a permanent military campaign or do you think we need a broader approach as many military leaders believe?"
To the Edwards' campaign credit, it's actually a pretty good question and not as loaded as one might expect from an opposing campaign.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
After the Democratic debate last week, we put in an update that John Edwards did indeed not raise his hand when asked if he agreed that there is "a global war on terror." In Portland, Ore., today, Edwards addressed the issue. "A question was asked whether you agree with the language, the Bush language, which is what it is, global war on terror. And I do not. And I took that position in the debate." After some applause, he continued, "This is a political frame and political rhetoric. They use it to justify everything they do. They use that language war to justify the war in Iraq, they use it justify Guantanamo, they use it to justify torture, they use it to justify illegal spying on the American people I mean, the list goes on and on and on."
During Edwards' town hall, Sen. Chris Dodd released a statement attacking the former senator on his new television ads on the President's veto of the Iraq funding bill. According to Chris Cillizza's "The Fix," Dodd's office says because Edwards can no longer vote in the Senate, he should support Dodd's plan to end the war within one year. According to the article, Edwards spokesman states Edwards' plan is actually stronger, calling for an immediate withdrawal of 40-50-thousand troops and then a full withdrawal within 12-18 months.
Edwards will continue to be asked questions about the Iraq War and other issues of the day. He will continue to have the luxury of not being scrutinized over every senate vote. But if his past comments hold true, he will not shy away from putting forth specific plans. Today, Edwards repeated the sentiment, "Every candidate ought to be put to the test of specificity. Anybody can roar through here with big high minded, what I call highfalutin rhetoric. Any of us who are at this level can do that well, but the question is, are they willing to take stances?"
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, one of the first to offer a bill pulling troops out of Iraq and often considered a barometer of liberal thinking, today says he will not support any new war funding bill doesn't included binding language for troop withdrawal. In an article he wrote for the liberal website The Huffington Post, he says, "We can't keep giving in to this Administration on Iraq."
"The ink on the President's veto is barely dry, and already, a lot of Washington insiders - including some Democrats -- are saying Congress should just give in to the President," he said. "[B]acking down is not the answer. No one else should die in Iraq to give political comfort to dealmakers in Washington."
Feingold also dismissed the concept of non-binding benchmarks as a solution. "We're long past the point when just setting benchmarks was enough... And if those benchmarks aren't binding, then they are nothing more than suggestions. The American people aren't asking us to offer suggestions to the Iraqis -- they are asking us to bring our troops out of Iraq."
The Wisconsin senator surprise some insiders when he signed onto the just-vetoed bill which only set a "goal" of most troop withdrawal by April 2008. He's also authored separate legislation that ends MOST funding for the war within the same timeframe. "The next step to ending the war isn't to give in, but to step up the pressure on the President," he wrote.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The override debate will begin round about 12:00 pm noon ET today here in your U.S. House, with and hour of discussion planned. Then comes the vote, likely to begin around 1:15 pm. A 15-minute vote will ensue.
Two-thirds of House members present and voting would be required to override the veto. Currently your House consists of 433 members (two recently deceased), and if by some miracle all of them show up and vote, 289 "Yea" votes would be required to carry.
But whatever the case, they won't come close, seeing as how last week the measure passed by the barest of margins for success: 218 yeas. The only drama will be the possibility that somebody switches their vote based on the policy, as opposed to switching their vote due to some esoteric philosophy regarding override votes. You never know with some of these folks.
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Supplemental Showdown, Round 2: For the last few weeks, it had been the same routine: Democrats worked on passing Iraq legislation with withdrawal dates, Bush staged events almost every day vowing to veto it, and Democratic leaders returned the fire. Now after Bush followed through with his promise yesterday and issued the second veto of his presidency, they can begin to work on some sort of compromise. Maybe. This afternoon, the president and congressional leaders meet at the White House to discuss the Iraq supplemental -- but not before the House tries to override Bush’s veto (which won’t succeed).
*** Can’t We All Just Get Along? Sen. George Voinovich (R) talks compromise, but couldn’t he have picked nicer imagery? Per the Washington Post, “‘Some kind of compromise has to be worked out between the administration and the Democrats," said …Voinovich …, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. ‘That's how it's done. Everybody holds their nose and maybe a couple of times vomits, but you get it done.’” Sen. Trent Lott adds, “‘It's time to stop laying down these guidelines, saying, “It's got to be this, it's got to be that.”’” The thing to watch: All of these congressional Republicans showing a willingness to compromise with the Democrats and rebuff the Bush Administration.
*** Up, Up and Away: In response to Bush’s veto, Edwards goes up with his first TV ad. Although it will reportedly air only in the DC cable market, his campaign is calling it a “strong” buy, with the potential to become bigger. The ad’s message: Send Bush another bill with the same withdrawal timelines. And another. And another, until he signs it.
*** A GOP in Trouble? We turn our attention today to the party’s diversity -- or lack thereof. Almost a week after a female (Clinton), an African American (Obama), and a Latino (Richardson) participated in the Democratic presidential debate, ten white men will take the stage tomorrow in the GOP one. Bush and former RNC chair Ken Mehlman made minority outreach a key goal, and it paid off in 2004 (when Bush won about 40% of the Hispanic vote) and even last year (when the Republicans had three African-American nominees running in key races). But in those midterms, their share of the Hispanic vote dropped to 30%, and all three of those black nominees lost. Former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd once said that the GOP can’t survive without getting more the Hispanic vote, but will it be able to do that after the Texan Bush leaves the White House?
*** California Dreamin’: A day before the first GOP presidential debate in California -- which will air on MSNBC and is moderated by Chris Matthews in conjunction with the Politico.com -- nearly all of the Republican candidates are in California: McCain raises money in Beverly Hills, Huckabee fundraises in San Francisco, and Romney appears on the Tonight Show. On the Democratic side, Biden holds two town halls on Iraq in San Francisco. And Edwards, also on the West Coast, has his own town hall meeting in Portland.
*** And Don’t Forget…: We’ve been loathe to over-promote ourselves, but figured today would be a good day to put in this plug: Be sure to check out First Read throughout the date for updates on the latest political news.
The Washington Post says Bush’s veto yesterday escalated “the most serious confrontation between the White House and Congress over war policy in a generation… The clash harked back to the debates of the Vietnam War era, when lawmakers likewise tried to use the power of the purse to end an unpopular conflict.”
The New York Times: “The next chapter begins Wednesday, when Congressional leaders are expected to meet Mr. Bush at the White House to open negotiations on a new bill. They are expected to look for ways to preserve the benchmarks for Iraqi progress that were included in the initial bill while eliminating the timetables for troop withdrawal that Mr. Bush has emphatically rejected. Several Republican leaders said Tuesday that they were likely to support such benchmarks, and White House aides said Tuesday that Mr. Bush, who has supported goals and benchmarks for the Iraqi government, might back such a measure — but only if the benchmarks are nonbinding.”
But USA Today reports that there is no agreement in Congress on how to proceed. Rep. Jack Murtha “has proposed a bill that would provide funding for the wars for two months. Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, the Senate's top defense appropriator, called the idea ‘not practical.’ Murtha and Inouye are both combat veterans.”
CONTINUED >>
Your First Read team has put together a list of Do’s and Don’ts for the 10 Republican presidential candidates who will be participating in Thursday’s debate that will air on MSNBC. Take a look.
Also, MSNBC.com's Curry notes that the debates give platforms to long-shot mavericks (as we saw last week with Mike Gravel), as well as provide fodder and talking points for the eventual opposition in the general election.
Despite trailing Giuliani in national surveys, McCain has the lead in the key nominating contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, according to new American Research Group polls. In Iowa, McCain is at 26%, followed by Giuliani at 19%, Romney at 14%, and Fred Thompson at 13%. In New Hampshire, McCain is ahead with 29%, while Romney finishes second at 24%, and Giuliani comes in third at 17%. And in South Carolina, it's McCain at 36%, Giuliani at 23%, and Thompson at 10%.
The Los Angeles Times is the latest to write about how Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) is trying to influence the 2008 presidential race. “On Tuesday, [he] met privately with Republican candidate Mitt Romney in Sacramento. And Schwarzenegger will attend the GOP debate Thursday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley as a guest of Nancy Reagan. He has already made joint appearances with Republican candidates John McCain and Rudolph W. Giuliani… Aides have said the governor may also deliver speeches in Iowa and New Hampshire, using the two crucial campaign battlegrounds to promote his ideas on such topics as curbing global warming and making healthcare coverage more accessible.”
GIULIANI: The New York Times says that Giuliani’s ties to a Texas law firm, Bracewell & Giuliani, has allowed him to raise plenty of money in that state. But it also poses risks for the former mayor. “The firm is perhaps the nation’s most aggressive lobbyist for coal-fired power plants, heavy emitters of air pollutants and carbon dioxide, a gas associated with global warming… Most significantly, perhaps, the law firm is one of the higher-profile defenders of the oil, gas and energy industries, to which it provides legal help and extensive lobbying services in Washington.”
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The American Research Group polls show Clinton leading in New Hampshire and South Carolina, but trailing Edwards in Iowa.
Both Clinton and Obama have now agreed “to participate in the June 3 Democratic debate sponsored by the New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR and CNN,” the Union Leader notes. “That event at Saint Anselm College will be followed two nights later by a GOP forum. Every major candidate will take part.”
EDWARDS: The North Carolinian participated in an AFL-CIO town hall in Seattle yesterday. (Remember, the AFL-CIO is sponsoring individual town halls for all the Dem candidates). Before speaking on the issues labor cares about, Edwards was able to use the event to take a whack at Bush's veto of the Iraq supplemental, the Seattle Times says.
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The cloud hovering over Arizona Rep. Rick Renzi (R) is getting darker. Today, the Arizona Republic details a second controversy -- this one involving an FEC investigation. Of course, the FBI inquiry is much more serious. But this FEC news serves as "drip, drip."
“A federal appeals court in Washington ruled Tuesday that Representative Jim McDermott, Democrat of Washington, must pay damages to another congressman for giving reporters a tape of an illegally intercepted telephone call,” the New York Times writes. “The case was brought by Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, now the House Republican leader. It arose from a conference call in 1996 in which Newt Gingrich, who was then speaker of the House, discussed how to deal with a finding against him by the House ethics committee. Mr. Boehner participated by cellphone.”
By the way, Alberto Gonzales is still attorney general. Meanwhile, the congressional testimony by his deputy, Paul McNulty,
was not helpful to Gonzales.
From NBC's Carrie DannIn an address to the Latino Coalition in Washington, DC today, Giuliani focused on the hot-button issue most near and dear to his audience's heart: immigration. He outlined his stance (similar to the Bush administration's proposal of documentation, penalties, and then eventual paths to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the country), but he was careful to portray the immigration debate through the prism of national security -- his strongest issue by far. "If you have 12 million people ... that are here illegally, it is much easier for terrorists and drug dealers and criminals to hide." Registering undocumented immigrants, he proposed "get[s] that number down to a smaller group, so it's easier for me, if I'm the president ... to find the terrorists. Harder for the terrorists to hide."
Giuliani alluded again to the "white flag" comments that prompted a flurry of angry responses last week, when he implied that the election of a Democratic president in 2008 would increase the chances of another terrorist attack, but he softened a bit on the finger-pointing. "I understand why some people sometimes are in denial about this," he said today about potential terrorist threats. "Hard realities are hard to face."
Also of note: Giuliani wove harsh criticism of Hugo Chavez into his remarks on energy, bemoaning America's dependence on oil controlled by the Venezuelan dictator's regime. So keep your eyes peeled for a renewed effort by detractors to unearth business ties between Giuliani's law firm to Citgo Petroleum Corp, technically owned by the Chavez regime since its sale to Venezuela in 1990.
From NBC's Mark MurrayAt their own signing ceremony of the Iraq supplemental, Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid urged President Bush not to veto the legislation -- even though he will. "A veto means denying our troops the resources and strategy they need," Reid said. "There is still time to listen to the American people ... and change course in Iraq."
From NBC's Mark Murray
The White House has just announced that it will be receiving the Iraq supplemental from Congress shortly. And when President Bush returns from Central Command later today, he'll veto the bill privately and will make a statement about it at 6:10 pm ET.
What's more, the White House is asking the TV networks and cable channels to carry Bush's statement live. In his remarks, according to the White House, Bush will outline the reasons for his veto, and make it clear he's willing to work with Congress -- beginning tomorrow -- to find a solution.
This will be just the second veto of Bush's presidency; his first struck down legislation expanding embryonic stem-cell research.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Not surprisingly, the Democratic presidential front-runners have all released statements this morning blasting the Bush Administration on this 4th anniversary of Bush's "Mission Accomplished" aircraft-carrier landing.
Said Clinton: "Never before in our history has a President said 'mission accomplished' when the mission had barely begun. Never before has a President landed on the deck of an aircraft carrier to proclaim the end of major combat operations to a war that rages on four years later... America is ready for a President who will respect our Armed Forces by properly planning for the missions we ask our troops to undertake. America is ready to end this war and when I am President, that's exactly what I'll do."
Edwards: "Now, the American people have given Congress a mission to end the war, but it hasn't been accomplished yet. President Bush has said he plans to veto the Iraq funding bill that Congress sent him. When the President vetoes the bill, it is George Bush who is not supporting our troops, and nobody else. Congress needs to stand firm and strong. When Bush vetoes the bill, Congress should send him another bill with a timetable for withdrawal and if he vetoes that one, Congress should send him another and another until we end this war and bring our troops home."
Obama: "Four years after President Bush landed on an aircraft carrier and declared 'Mission Accomplished,' we are still in a war where more than one hundred American service members have died in just the month of April... It is time to end this war so we can bring our troops home and redeploy our forces to help fight the broader struggle against terrorism and other threats of this new century."
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier today, Romney told FOX yesterday that L. Ron Hubbard's "Battlefield Earth" is his favorite novel. The Romney campaign replied to First Read that the governor "is an avid reader and has read many books." And, per his Facebook site, other books he likes include "Huckleberry Finn," Richard Ben Cramer's "What It Takes," Edmund Morris' "Theodore Rex," and Tom Friedman's "The World is Flat."
From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
*** Tempting Fate: Outside the capture (and later execution) of Saddam Hussein, the smoother-than-expected elections, and now possibly the death of Abu Ayyub al-Masri, little has gone right in Iraq for the US since Bush made that famous Top Gun landing on the USS Abraham Lincoln exactly four years ago, with the "Mission Accomplished" banner in the background. And the American public has noticed. Per last week's NBC/Journal poll, majorities said that victory and even stability aren’t possible in Iraq. On that day four years ago, did Bush break the rule that most superstitious people, especially sports enthusiasts, know by heart: Don't celebrate until you're sure it's over? By the way, it's May Day around the world. Look for the missile parade photo-ops.
*** Bench Press: It's also not a coincidence that Democrats decided this would be the day they'd send the Iraq emergency spending bill to Bush for his prompt veto, setting up the supplemental showdown between Congress and the White House. Yet the news today is that once the legislation is vetoed, congressional Republicans might be receptive to the idea of establishing benchmarks for the Iraqi government to meet. When Boehner and Blunt start talking benchmarks (binding or not), then you know it must be getting a bit lonely at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave…
*** A GOP in Trouble? Yesterday, in advance of Thursday’s Republican debate, we mulled over the GOP's identity crisis. Today, with Iraq in the news, we ask this question: How will Republican candidates win next year -- or even beyond -- by backing a war that's supported by just a third of the public? Bush and GOPers respond that they're doing it out of principle and because it's the right thing to do. But as Goldwater proved, you can't win national elections by principle alone.
*** Xenu and the Galactic Confederacy: Did anyone catch Romney say that Scientology founder L. Ron Hubbard’s “Battlefield Earth” is one of his favorite books? Maybe it’s just us, but Marx’s “Das Kapital” or Darwin’s “Origins of Species” might have raised fewer eyebrows than Hubbard’s book. Will the person who’s already defending his faith -- Mormonism -- have to defend another one?
*** The E-Word: The slew of South Carolina endorsements Obama’s camp received yesterday -- led by those from Dick Harpootlian and Inez Tenenbaum -- suggest that these folks believe Obama might be the most electable Democrat. Is that true? Out of Clinton, Edwards, and Obama, is Obama the face of the party that these SC Democrats believe will allow them to win statewide elections again?
*** On the Trail: Edwards participates in an AFL-CIO town hall forum in Seattle; Giuliani, in DC, keynotes the Latino Coalition’s annual gathering of small business owners; McCain gives a foreign-policy speech at Stanford’s Hoover Institution; and Romney is also in California for finance events.
Mirroring last week’s NBC/WSJ poll, a new Gallup survey finds that 57% support a timetable for withdrawal, versus 39% who believe that US troops should stay in Iraq as long as necessary.
With the president's expected veto of the war-funding bill that sets timelines for troop withdrawal, NBC’s Ken Strickland says that Senate action moves to closed-door strategy sessions and negotiations for a new bill. Those talks start Wednesday when Bush meets with congressional leaders at the White House. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell have already started talks on how to move forward and were scheduled to meet yesterday.
Strick points out that the growing consensus building within the Senate leadership would be a new bill void of timeless and heavy on benchmarks for the Iraqi government. But the contention resurfaces as negotiators decided whether those benchmarks are binding with consequences or nonbinding. The Administration has suggested benchmarks that "tie the hands" of the military would also be subject to a veto.
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CLINTON: The AP looks at the gender issue through the prism of voting and notes, "Women sometimes set exceedingly high standards for female candidates." And that could hurt Clinton.
Meanwhile, the St. Pete Times writes that Clinton’s speeches in the South last week “showed how she is trying to simultaneously inspire her supporters while softening her image with people who are less fond of her.”
EDWARDS: The former North Carolina senator released a book yesterday advocating solutions to poverty.
Elizabeth Edwards was in New Hampshire yesterday arguing that her husband would be as good of an advocate for women as a female presidential candidate would be.
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GINGRICH: Stumping in Oklahoma yesterday, Gingrich commented on George Tenet's book and stated if what Tenet said was true, then Tenet should have resigned.
GIULIANI: Somebody on the campaign's New Hampshire staff didn't do his homework. A list of state supporters that the campaign released actually included non-supporters. And those non-supporters are enjoying telling folks about it.
MCCAIN: The AP previews McCain’s foreign policy speech at the Hoover Institution, in which he’s expected to call for a "League of Democracies." “McCain is careful to note that his proposed multinational organization would not be like Woodrow Wilson's failed ‘League of Nations.’ Rather, McCain says the organization would be far more similar to what Theodore Roosevelt favored -- a group of ‘like-minded nations working together in the cause of peace.’”
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Three more Republican presidential candidates -- Romney, Huckabee, and Gilmore -- have paid their $25,000 filing fee to ensure their place in the second GOP presidential debate in two weeks. Filing and garnering 1% in the polls are the requirements for participation.
Sen. Joe Lieberman (?-CT) said if the two party nominees do not address "partisan polarization," a third-party candidacy could find traction, the AP writes.
