June 2007 - Posts
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
In light of what has been a tough week for
McCain -- with yesterday’s failure of comprehensive immigration reform and unease on Iraq expressed by Indiana
Sen. Richard Lugar -- the Arizona senator spoke about the state of his presidential campaign in Chicago today. Regarding the Senate’s resistance to end debate and move ahead on the immigration bill he has championed, McCain expressed disappointment, saying, “We’re still left with de facto amnesty because we still have 12 million people in this country, and we don’t know who they are or what they’re doing.” He went on to explain that 40 percent of illegal immigrants did not cross the border illegally (they came in on visas that later expired), and that tougher border security alone will not solve the problem of people who are already here.
On Lugar, McCain told reporters that he has “great respect” for his GOP colleague, but indicated that his position is not likely to change, saying: “I always appreciate the advice and counsel of any of my colleagues, but my positions, especially on national security issues, are certainly thought through.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
As is becoming a pre-debate/forum/being-in-the-same-room-as-Romney ritual,
Brownback is attacking
Romney’s controversial stance on… agriculture? (They’re going to be in Iowa tomorrow -- there’s the hook -- for the Iowa Christian Alliance/Iowans for Tax Relief Forum).“Romney suggested eliminating the Department of Agriculture and reducing farm subsidies during his unsuccessful 1994 Senate race in Massachusetts,” the first line of the memo states. By contrast, Brownback “grew up on a farm” and “has always made farmers and agriculture a priority,” says his Iowa communications director.
We’ll let you know when we hear of -- yet another -- response from the Romney campaign.
********UPDATE************The Romney campaign got back to us with a response. Here's what they wrote:
“Governor Romney believes that investing in agriculture is key to our economy and families. America’s farmers not only provide food for the dinner table, but they will play a critical role in lessening our reliance on foreign sources of oil. Governor Romney is strongly committed to family farmers across this nation and is optimistic for the role the agriculture community will play in providing alternative and renewable sources of energy.”
From NBC's Andrew Merten
For a good part of the last five years,
Dennis Kucinich has held two jobs: Ohio congressman and quixotic presidential candidate. In fact, if his White House bid lasts well into next year (which it probably will), he will have spent two of his last three congressional terms running for president — a sizable amount of time for someone who garnered just 1 percent of the vote in the 2004 Iowa caucuses, and who remains buried beneath other 2008 Democratic presidential contenders in current polls.
His time on the presidential campaign trail hasn't gone unnoticed by his critics. In his 2004 congressional re-election bid, his two opponents — Republican Edward Herman and Independent Barbara Ferris — brought up the votes he missed while running for president, arguing that he was distracted from meeting the needs of his constituents in Cleveland, Ohio.
For more on the story, click here.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Congressional Democrats will spend July getting back to the issue of Iraq, trying different legislative ways to force a troop withdrawal and re-gain the favor of disaffected anti-war voters in the bargain."We have many arrows in our quiver, and we are sharpening them," Speaker
Nancy Pelosi says of the measures under consideration. She announced that the House will once again take up legislation that would require a withdrawal to begin within 180 days, with a goal of complete transition into a non-combat role by April 1, 2008.
This time, the move will NOT be attached to a funding bill, but on a measure that authorizes Defense Department operations. Many Democrats felt that they had put themselves in a box last time out, as they had pledged not to cut off funding for troops in the field yet were using a funding bill to try and end the war. We all know how that ended up.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per
WTAE-TV in Pittsburgh: "
Romney answered questions about a Boston Globe feature story that mentions how he strapped his dog's cage, with the animal inside, to the top of his family's car during a 12-hour road trip 24 years ago. He said Thursday that the pet enjoyed the experience, and he took a shot at People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, a group that has labeled his actions as cruelty."
"You know, PETA has not been my fan over the years," Romney said. "PETA has been after me for having a rodeo at the Olympics and were very, very upset about that. PETA was after me when I went quail hunting in Georgia. And PETA is not happy that my dog likes fresh air."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In an effort to set expectations the day before the second fund-raising quarter ends, the Obama campaign wants to make clear the distinction between primary and general election money. In a memo e-mailed by Obama's camp, they point out that “the only figure that truly matters is the total money raised for the primary.”
“The eventual nominee will be able to raise sufficient funds for the general election, so there is no strategic advantage to raising general election funds now,” the campaign writes. “In reality, the funds raised for the general election serve no purpose other than inflating a candidate’s total.”
The Obama campaign's obvious intent here is based on the expectation that Clinton will have raised a lot of general election funds as she did in the first quarter.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
***
The Reviews Are In: Due to the format and the lack of engagement between the candidates, it was hard the judge the performances in last night’s Democratic debate. If you twisted our arm, we’d guess Biden, Clinton, and Obama stood out the most to us. The reviews, however, seemed to be unanimous: Clinton had the strongest performance. She won the post-debate spin and the clip war. That was crystal clear this morning.
***
VH-1’s “Worst Week Ever”: Meanwhile, the other consensus from this morning's clips: Bush seems to be done. His immigration bill died in the Senate. Key Republicans are beginning to abandon him on Iraq. And today,
Bloomberg writes that Bush will pay a political price if he pardons Scooter Libby or not. Is this the worst week of his presidency?
*** SCOTUS Politics: Well, one good thing for Bush: this week’s (and term’s) Supreme Court rulings. Elections have consequences, right? For years, the right griped about a liberal and activist Court, and it used that to rally its troops on Election Day. But in this 50-50 Nation (or 52-48 Nation, take your pick), will the Roberts-led Court begin to become a rallying cry for liberals? We did start to see that at last night’s Democratic debate.
***
If Hillary’s The True Front-Runner, Why…: With the Clinton campaign essentially conceding the 2nd fundraising quarter to Obama, we can't help but ask this question: If Clinton's political victories this month were as great as the campaign (and many in the media) believe, then why did she lose to Obama on the money front? Money isn't EVERYTHING, but it's something. And if Clinton can't turn what has been a strong two months into a financial momentum stopper for Obama, what does that mean for the fall?
*** On The Trail: Clinton has private events in Florida; Edwards raises money there too; Gilmore is in Virginia; Huckabee campaigns in Iowa and holds a conference call with reporters in the afternoon; Kucinich appears on Letterman; McCain has a media avail in Chicago; Obama heads to Minnesota for his campaign kick off there; Richardson raises money in El Paso, TX and Las Cruces, NM; and Romney travels to Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 43 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 65 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 113 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 130 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 141 days
Countdown to Iowa: 209 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 220 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 494 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 571 days
The Los Angeles Times notes the candidates "presented a largely united front." The report called the Biden-Obama AIDS test moment the liveliest exchange, and observes that both Obama and Rev. Al Sharpton seemed perplexed about Biden’s remark. "At that, Obama shot Biden a you've-got-to-be-kidding glance. A television camera caught the Rev. Al Sharpton in the audience looking appalled."
The Washington Post: “The forum at Howard University seemed to be a guaranteed fit for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), the only black candidate in the race… But the audience largely embraced the other seven Democrats on stage as well.”
The New York Times adds: “The foreign policy flash points that had produced conflict between the Democrats at their earlier debates — in particular, the war in Iraq — were largely absent as the candidates spoke easily, finishing one another’s sentences and offering jokes and compliments… None of the candidates appeared to stand out, and each of the best-known ones drew relatively similar reactions from the audience.”
CONTINUED >>
A
Washington Post news analysis observes that Bush admitted defeat after the immigration bill he supported died in the Senate yesterday. “It was, in the end, simply a statement of reality after the Senate buried his proposal to overhaul immigration laws. But for a president who makes a point of never giving in, even when he loses, it was a striking moment, underscoring the depth of his political travails. It took almost two years before Bush acknowledged, just months ago, that his effort to reshape Social Security had failed. Now he has surrendered in what was probably his last chance of securing a legacy-making second-term domestic victory.”
The Los Angeles Times sums up Bush's terrible week: "Bush began the week struggling to salvage his most important foreign and domestic initiatives: the war in Iraq and an overhaul of the nation's immigration laws. He ends it closer to losing both than at any time in his presidency. And in a remarkable reversal for a president who once commanded nearly unflagging loyalty from lawmakers in his party, those most responsible for his setbacks are Republicans."
The New York Times has this nugget: “Mr. Bush placed telephone calls to lawmakers throughout the morning. But members of his party abandoned him in droves, with just 12 of the 49 Senate Republicans sticking by him on the important procedural vote that determined the fate of the bill… The outcome was a bitter disappointment for Mr. Bush and other supporters of a comprehensive approach… The vote reflected the degree to which Congress and the nation are polarized over immigration. The emotional end to what had been an emotional debate was evident, with a few senior staff members who had invested months in writing the bill near tears.”
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: The campaign announced this morning the release his new book “From Power to Purpose: A Remarkable Journey of Faith and Compassion” on July 3. "If we ever lose our goodness, we will surely lose our greatness," writes Brownback. "If America is to stay great, the moral character, shared beliefs and common sense of her people will once again have to step up in order for us to achieve our true destiny and purpose."
GINGRICH: He
stumped in Iowa yesterday, attracting over 100 folks in the Iowa City area.
GIULIANI: Campaigning in California yesterday, Giuliani
"applauded the defeat" of the immigration reform bill in the Senate. Giuliani: "It was a typical Washington mess in every respect. It could've made things worse." Giuliani's "decision to spend this week raising cash has angered many Latinos because he and the other Republican presidential candidates had been expected to attend the national conference of Latino elected officials today. Instead, Giuliani will be raising cash in Southern California."
CONTINUED >>
The
Politico reports, “Speaker Nancy Pelosi … and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid … are expected tomorrow to announce a new coordinated effort to force votes in July to end the Iraq war, according to Democratic insiders. Reid has already publicly declared that Senate Democrats will offer four Iraq-related amendments to the upcoming 2008 Defense authorization bill, including a proposal by Reid and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) to set a firm timetable to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq by next spring. Pelosi is planning to announce that the House will also vote on a bill setting a new withdrawal timetable of April 1, 2008, although the details of the proposal were still up in the air at press time.”
The New York Times covers the money race between Clinton and Obama, noting that Clinton’s camp “announced yesterday that it would raise ‘in the range of $27 million’ for the second quarter of 2007… While Mr. Obama has declined to provide an estimate of second-quarter fund-raising figures, the campaign yesterday sought to signal its financial strength by disclosing that more than 250,000 people had contributed to his presidential race.”
In fact, the Obama campaign said it surpassed 250,000 donors yesterday. And Obama himself called the 250,000th donor -- Angela Berg, a teacher from Washington State -- to thank her for the contribution. She gave $100 last night.
The
New York Times notes that a presidential campaign would cause the very private Michael Bloomberg to make a major adjustment. "And, as the revelation this week that he had a heart procedure in 2000 shows, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Mr. Bloomberg to keep that privacy bubble from popping."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich (and his really tall young wife -- no making out) and Gravel made it into the spin room. Richardson gave a good bite on immigration.
Bob Menendez was there spinning Clinton, saying she "had the moment of the night" on her answer on HIV/AIDS.
And of course, Al Sharpton was there too.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Twice in almost the same breath, Obama made a point that the president needs to be "in touch with the needs of New Orleans before the hurricane hits" and that "we've got to have a president who understands the reality that people in New Orleans were being neglected prior to the hurricane."
Here's the full quote:
"I think that what's most important, though, is that
we have a president who's in touch with the needs of New Orleans before the hurricane hits. Because part of the reason that we had such a tragedy was the assumption that everybody could jump in their SUVs, load up with some sparkling water, and check in to the nearest hotel. And we've got to have...we've got to have one person in charge, we've got to have a FEMA director who's reporting to the president, but we've got to have
a president who understands the reality that people in New Orleans were being neglected prior to the hurricane. And there are potential Katrinas all across this country that have been left unattended."
****UPDATE******
The above quote was from a raw transcript. It has now been updated and should more accurately reflect Obama's language.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroIn a debate with an opportunity to put each of the candidates on the record on their stances on affirmative action, not a single question was asked on the topic. Why?
And the format really led to a big problem -- boilerplate questions, lead to boilerplate answers.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the beginning of the debate, Gravel called it the fairest one so far. Unlike previous debates where the front-runners received more questions than the rest of the candidates, in this debate each candidate got to answer every question. But the format may not have allowed for the most amount of total candidate on air time. There were a total of only eight questions.
We kept track of how much time each candidate held the stage, and neither Clinton, Obama, nor Edwards spoke the most amount of time -- that honor went to Richardson, who was the only candidate to speak for more than eight minutes. Obama was next, with Dodd and Clinton following. At the beginning of the debate, Dodd looked like he would receive the crown for longest speaker, but after Smiley chastised him, Dodd kept his answers to the time limit.
The rest of the candidates spoke for less than seven minutes. Although the format should have allowed for each candidate to speak for a similar amount of time, Gravel spoke the least, barely over six minutes, and Kucinich spoke for less than 6 1/2 minutes.
Here's our rough count of the time for each candidate:
Richardson 8:15
Obama 7:42
Dodd 7:25
Clinton 7:20
Biden 6:58
Edwards 6:36
Kucinich 6:29
Gravel 6:08
From NBC's Andrew MertenIt looks like Chuck was right. By our count so far, the word Iraq was mentioned just four times in tonight's debate.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAs I wrote about constantly during the live-blogging session, this format was awful. I understand what the organizers were trying to do but it didn't work. And that means it was hard to view this debate as having a real impact on this campaign. None of the candidates came into this debate with an intent on creating a contrast. If you twisted my arm, I guess I'd say Biden, Clinton and Obama stood out a bit. Gravel stands out, but for all the wrong reasons (and what was with the casual khakis). Richardson, once again, had some uneven moments; he's lucky these debates haven't impacted him much; he certainly didn't act like a first tier candidate tonight. Edwards was more robotic than he has been in the first two debates. It could be the format that contributed to it for him. Dodd actually seemed to be better with the 30-second limit than during the 1-minute portion.
BTW, does PBS really believe that Tavis Smiley is going to be able to get the Republican candidates to come to a debate? I just don't buy it. Then again, if Smiley and PBS promise to make the debate as long and tedious as this one came across, where it took a half hour to get to the second question, well, then maybe. After all, the Republicans will LOVE to do a debate that doesn't mention the word "Iraq," right? (Actually, I think Iraq was mentioned four times total, but I'll have to double check my TiVO.) Seriously, the Republican candidates aren't going to come to a debate if they think the moderator or questioners will attack them.
From NBC's Mark MurrayGravel, when asked about Darfur, said that dealing with it comes to moral judgment, and he said that his opponents on the stage don't have it. Ouch. And wow!
From NBC's Chuck ToddWhy does the debate have to end on time if it didn't begin on time?
Richardson repeated his argument to put pressure on the Chinese when it comes to Darfur by threatening to boycott the 2008 Olympics.
"I believe fighting genocide is more important that sports," he said.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It's on Darfur. But how many more questions could have been asked had the actual debate started at 9:00 pm ET, as was scheduled?
From NBC's Mark Murray
She just buzzed through another question... "$300. Can I hear $400? Sold to the gentleman in the yellow hat..."
From NBC's Chuck ToddThat's a tough charge from Clinton on the Bush admin, "criminal indifference." By the way, this 30-second format, as Mark pointed out, is not good for Clinton. She's used the phrase "10 point plan" and then ticked off numbers the other time.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...came out strong, but he seems tired. He's sounds like he's running out of gas...
From NBC's Mark MurraySince Tavis Smiley changed the responses to 30 second, Hillary Clinton just sounded like an auctioneer ticking off several items in her answer on African Americans in jail (versus whites).
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroShocker. From... Gravel. He said the debate is just "politics as usual." No empowerment here, he claims.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe Republicans are ecstatic that this question was asked. Both Clinton and Obama were very careful in how they answered it. They were clearing thinking about another campaign. They didn't call for "raising" taxes, they called for "changing" the system.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroI think Gravel just called for Flat Tax. 'Imagine a tax where you know what everyone else is paying...' Hmm who's that sound like? Didn't Steve Forbes run as a Republican?
From NBC's Chuck ToddThank you, Mr. Smiley, for changing the format up. It should speed things up.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...Al Sharpton's face in response to Biden's "I got tested... I know Barack got tested..."
Biden: "I got tested for AIDS. Barack got tested for AIDS. There is no shame in getting tested for AIDS.
Obama: "I just want to let you know I get tested with Michelle [Obama]."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton got the loudest applause so far with her "If it were white women..." comment, showed some flexibility and a good effort with a Paris Hilton comment
From NBC's Chuck ToddCome on, do we really have to let every candidate answer every question? Even the candidates don't want that. They have to constantly say "John's right, or I agree with the senator etc..." I applaud the effort to make sure everyone gets a chance, but there's a way to allow everyone their shot and not lose the viewer's attention. I've counted three nodding off audience members so far.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Dodd goes over the time limit twice in row, and gets chastised (politely) by Tavis Smiley.
You can tell Dodd is trying to make an impression tonight.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The war is going to end the problems of the black community? What Gravel?
From NBC's Mark MurrayTo the best of my memory, we heard the first question on HIV/AIDS at this debate. Richardson started first, and he said he was actually going to say something "positive" about Bush -- on increasing AIDS funding.
From NBC's Mark Murray
There it is. Clinton just whipped out her "It Takes A Village" line on the question of poverty.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIs Richardson really wearing a white tie? It actually works because of the dark background but it's not everyday you see a candidate for office wear a regular white necktie. We're still waiting for the self-styled westerner to sport the bolo.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's a startling statistic thrown out that black high school graduates have a 33 percent higher unemployment rate than white high school dropouts.
Between Richardson, Edwards and Clinton their answers were particularly strong. Edwards went with talking points and plugged his Poverty Center. And in the first question, he mentioned Two Americas. Clinton starts with "it takes a village," a resounding "ohh" came up from the audience.
Obama got right to the issue, talked comfortably about early childhood education and seems to have a strong handle on the topic.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIt's been 30 minutes and we've gotten through 1 question.
From NBC's Chuck ToddGod love Mike Gravel. His opening remarks are on drugs. His heart appears to be in the right place but his presentation comes across as "let's legalize." So some happy folks in Marin County, CA, tonight.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Was it just me, or did Kucinich's wife look like she had eyes for Gravel when the camera cut to her?
Best line so far... by Kucinich: "They tell you to pull yourself up by the bootstraps and then they steal the boots."
From NBC's Mark Murray
The first question tonight -- about whether race is still the most intractable problem in American and about today's Supreme Court decision -- allowed each of the candidates to play to their strengths. Clinton hit on Bush-appointed Supreme Court that "turned the clock back" on Brown vs. Board of Education; Biden emphasized why he fought so hard against Roberts and Alito; Richardson talked about "being authentic and speaking honestly"; Edwards talked about the inequality in America; and Obama used it to talk about his biography and what he would do as president.
Oh, and Gravel talked about the nation's drug policies.
Before his 2004 DNC speech, Obama, in proclaiming his readiness said, "I'm Lebron, baby."
Will Lebron show again?
From NBC's Chuck ToddJoe Biden, once again, getting on message pretty quickly in a debate. The Roberts-Alito comment brought his answer to the present quickly. He's been solid in the first two debates; good start for him already.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton, who has had strong support among African-Americans, went first. "The work is yet to be done." (mild applause)
...then Biden, who makes a strong point about his toughness on Roberts and Alito. (though his applause... eh)
From NBC's Mark Murray
Just a huge shout-out -- and then another -- for Obama during the spray of the candidates. This is definitely his home turf, as we mentioned earlier.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This is Gov. Deval Patrick's (MA) first appearance in the national spotlight. He is the only African-American governor in the country. And he didn't make any grand speeches.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThis pregame is ridiculously long and the candidates haven't even taken the stage. This is absurd; This is what the 8:30-9pm hour should have been for.
From NBC's Mark MurrayIt's 9:10 pm ET, and the debate hasn't started; in fact, the candidates haven't come out on the stage. Is this going to be like a soccer match, where the time for this 90-minute debate gets moved back? Or is this going to be less than a 90-minute debate?
From NBC's Chuck ToddHere's a question that I've had all week: why didn't this debate get more attention? Where was the hype? This will be an interesting test to see just how many eyeballs public TV gets on an avg. night vs. cable news.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
I have a seat right on the edge of the red-carpeted spin area, and already a Clinton supporter has made herself available for spin. Aides for Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX-18) offered up their card to make her available.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At the entrance to the auditorium, ushers were giving away for free Tavis Smiley's, "The Covenant in Action," a companion to Covenant with Black America.
And if you didn't know it was free by the guys giving it away, Smiley reminded you. He took the stage about 45 minutes before the debate, grabbed the mic -- book in hand -- and said, "For all those with tickets, we're giving complimentary Covenant in Action books. Be sure to pick up a copy."
About 10 minutes later, someone else took the stage, asked audience members to shut their phones off and then said, "Anyone who'd like to stay for the taping of Tavis' Friday night talk show is welcome to stay."
The taping starts an hour after the forum.
You think any candidates going to stick around?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Harry Belafonte, Al Sharpton and former Clinton adviser Vernon Jordan.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It's 20 minutes until tonight's Democratic presidential debate at Howard University. Domenico is on site, while Chuck and I will be watching from our TVs (while also keeping an eye on tonight's NBA Draft). All three of us will be live-blogging the debate.
Be sure to check in -- and often -- for instant insight and analysis.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, Howard Wolfson, the communications director for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, said in a memo: "As [Clinton strategist] Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."
But those polls only tell part of the story. According to a new Mason-Dixon survey, given exclusively to NBC/MSNBC and McClatchy newspapers, Clinton is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating.
In the poll, 48% say they would consider voting for Clinton versus 52% who say they wouldn't. By comparison, majorities signal they would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates: Giuliani (64%-36%), Fred Thompson (62%-38%), Bloomberg (61%-39%), Obama (60%-40%), Edwards (59%-41%), McCain (58%-42%), Biden (57%-43%), Richardson (57%-43%), Huckabee (56%-44%), and Romney (54%-46%).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Here's a snapshot of how election politics may have effected voting on today's Senate immigration bill. Because the vote was procedural in nature, simply to end debate and proceed to a final vote, the "yes" votes don't necessarily mean senators would have voted "yes" for the final bill. This is especially significant because had the debate continued, there would have been more votes on amendments that could have gutted core elements of the bill.
But those voting "no" will be considered responsible -- at least in political circles -- for killing the bill. Majority Leader Harry Reid made it clear that if the vote failed, he'd pull the immigration measure from the floor.
The Presidential candidates: All of the Democratic candidates voted YES. McCain, who was part of the bipartisan coalition that crafted and supported the bill, also voted YES. Brownback's initial vote was YES, but later, probably when the outcome was clear, switched to NO.
Senators up for reelection in 2008: On the Democratic side, all the blue state senators voted YES (Biden, Durbin, Kerry, Lautenberg, Levin, Reed). But those Democrats running in red or purples states voted NO (Baucus, Harkin, Landrieu, Pryor, Rockefeller).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A Suffolk University/WHDH-TV New Hampshire poll shows
Clinton with a substantial lead over
Obama, and
Romney and Giuliani are in a statistical tie. It also shows
Edwards slipping and
Richardson rising.Clinton led the Democratic pack with 37%; Obama was second with 19%; Edwards and Richardson were tied at 9%. On the Republican side, Romney had 26%;
Giuliani was next with 22%;
McCain and
Fred Thompson were tied at 13%. The margin of error for the poll is 4.38%.
The survey finds Clinton’s lead over Obama is significant with voters 56 and older, who went for Clinton overwhelmingly, 47%-15%. Conversely, Obama and Clinton were virtually tied with younger voters (ages 18 to 45) with Obama having a slight 26%-25% edge.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Not to be outdone by the
Obama campaign -- after it leaked the number of donors it expects for the second quarter --
Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson has released a
memo discussing its fundraising projections, Clinton's electability, and even
Bill Clinton's campaign help. On its second quarter fundraising: "We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the "off" year. While that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter." (Again, we'll point out that it would be a significant story if Obama beats Clinton in primary money for two-straight quarters, especially with her and her husband's connections.)
On Hillary's electability: "As [Clinton strategist] Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Carly Zakin
As we mentioned earlier today, the
Obama camp announced that 138,000 new donors have contributed to the campaign in this second fundraising quarter, up from the 104,000 donors who contributed in the first. And by the time the second quarter comes to an end on Saturday, Team Obama is expecting that a total of 250,000 donors will have given to the campaign in the first six months of this year.
To put those numbers in perspective, the Obama folks handed First Read a research document of past newspaper clippings showing that Howard Dean -- Mr. Grassroots/Netroots of the 2003-4 cycle -- had about 59,000 donors in the second quarter of 2003 and approximately 70,000 donors in the first six months of that year.
And for the entire year of 2003, it was reported that about 280,000 people donated to his campaign -- a figure which Obama will seem to almost equal in just half a year.
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
Hours after speaking at
Pat Robertson's Regent University, a must-stop destination for Republicans wooing Christian voters,
Giuliani strode through the doors of a Jewish temple in Maryland to address members of another faith. The contrast was not lost on Giuliani, who joked, "If I hit a Catholic church tonight, I'm all set!"
But aside from the late-night comedy potential of the mayor's schedule Tuesday, the back-to-back speeches also offered some intriguing insights into how Giuliani tailors his anti-terror message to each of his audiences.
"Number One: I will keep America on offense in the Terrorist's War on us," he declared to thunderous applause at both venues, reading aloud from a credit-card-sized list of his campaign "commitments" theatrically fished from his jacket pocket. The basic message of both speeches was the same, but Giuliani tweaked its angle substantially during his storm-delayed flight from Virginia Beach to DC.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
GOP presidential hopeful
Sam Brownback was very nervous for 11 minutes this morning. That's the time that elapsed between his initial "Aye" vote for cloture on the Senate's immigration bill today -- essentially an expression of support for the Bush-backed overhaul -- and a change to "Nay" before the vote was over.
Brownback likely recognized that a vote in favor of the bill, which is deeply unpopular among many Republicans who consider it "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, would not play well in the GOP presidential race or in a potential re-election bid in his native Kansas (he's up in 2010). He's supported the bill up until now, and voted to bring the measure to the Senate floor earlier in the week.
***Update*** At 2:10 pm ET, Brownback's Senate office issued a press release entitled "BROWNBACK VOTES AGAINST CLOTURE ON IMMIGRATION BILL," but it didn't mention he voted for the bill today before he voted against it. “We need comprehensive immigration reform, but the country is not accepting of this bill,” Brownback stated in the press release. “We need to listen to the American people on both timing and substance. We need to help ‘the widow and orphan and foreigner amongst us,’ but must do so in a way and at a time the American people support. This is not yet the right way. We should let the topic rest for now while we work diligently to secure our borders. Americans support legal immigration, not illegal immigration. We desire to be compassionate but demand adherence to the rule of law.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It will be interesting to see if tonight’s Howard University debate panel asks Obama about his track record as the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review. The Chicago Tribune’s David Mendell highlights in his upcoming book “Obama: From Promise to Power” that Obama’s loudest critics at the Law Review were black students who believe Obama didn’t promote enough minorities to editor positions. Obama said in the book that while he feels strongly about promoting diversity, he made promotions at the Law Review based solely on ability and didn’t want to appear unfair. Obama was thrust to power at the Law Review, Mendell reports, by the conservative bloc of students who didn't like the liberal students’ tone and thought Obama, a professed liberal, would at least take their opinions seriously.
Since his famed 2004 DNC speech, Obama has used centrist language on the issue of affirmative action. Obama said affirmative action is "a useful tool but a limited tool in terms of advancement" and added that education should be a higher priority. "There are a whole bunch of young inner-city children right now that aren't touched by affirmative action because they won't get to go to college because they're dropping out of school." (Richmond Times-Dispatch, 9/21/06)
Also: "Promoting diversity is a compelling national interest, but it has to be done in a way that is not a back-door use of quotas and takes into account the full record of the students, not just race and test scores." (Chicago Tribune questionnaire, 10/18/04)
It remains to be seen if African-Americans and African-American leaders will fully take to Obama, who is not seen as an “empowerment” candidate.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
By a 47-53 vote, supporters of an immigration bill failed to muster the 60 votes needed to end debate on the legislation.
*** Update *** The vote was 46-53. More on that in a bit...
From NBC's Mark Murray
The
AP: "The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected integration plans in two major public school districts but left the door open for using race to assign students in limited circumstances. The decision in cases affecting schools in Louisville, Ky., and Seattle could imperil similar plans in hundreds of districts nationwide, and it further restricts how public school systems may attain racial diversity. The court split, 5-4, with Chief Justice John Roberts announcing the court's judgment. The court's four liberal justices dissented."
Hillary Clinton was the first presidential candidate out of the gate with a statement on the decision: "Today, the Court turned its back on the promise of Brown vs. Board of Education that students of different racial backgrounds deserve an opportunity to attend school together... Once again, the Roberts Court has shown its willingness to erode core constitutional guarantees. It is a set back for all of us who are on the long march toward racial equality and the building of a stronger more unified America. As President, I will fight to restore Brown's promise and create an education system where all children have an equal chance to learn and excel together."
From NBC's Chris Donovan
New Hampshirites might get a surprise this summer when they answer the knock at their door and they see
The Question Mark Suit Guy.
Maryland resident Matthew Lesko -- the author and infomercial personality who has been telling Americans how they can get free services and money from the federal government for years -- proudly displays a
Barack Obama bumper sticker on his question mark-covered car, and confirmed that he is supporting the Illinois senator for president. In a phone interview, Lesko said he has contributed to Obama's campaign and is "very excited" about his candidacy, in part because of Obama's focus on "getting together and helping each other" and getting young people involved and interested in the process.
One of those young people is Lesko's son, Max, who after volunteering for the campaign has recently been hired as a paid employee of Obama's New Hampshire team. Lesko says he plans on heading up to the Granite State sometime in the near future and knocking on doors for the campaign. Lesko said he considers himself an independent, and in the past he's supported Maryland's 8th District Congressman Chris Van Hollen. And according to the FEC's web site, he gave Bill Bradley $500 for his 2000 presidential run.
When asked if he had any advice for the Obama campaign, Lesko points out that they could take advantage of government offices that provide guidance on election laws, rather than having to spend a lot of money in legal fees to get the same information. As to whether or not the campaign has sought his expertise on raising money, he notes, "I haven't been asked." Lesko said he has yet to meet Obama, but hopes to soon.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Debate Number Three:
For the third time this campaign season, the eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- participate in a debate. This time, it’s from Howard University in DC, and it airs on PBS at 9:00 pm ET. Organizers are billing the event as the first “panel exclusively comprised of journalists of color” in primetime: PBS’ Tavis Smiley, NPR’s Michel Martin, syndicated columnist Ruben Navarrette Jr., and USA Today’s DeWayne Wickham. And the candidates will be asked questions on health care, Katrina relief, the economy, and the environment.
***
What To Watch For: Given the audience, the issues, and the panelists, this debate is definitely on Obama’s turf. Can he manage that expectation, as well as continue to demonstrate that he’s more than an African-American man running for president? Also, the debate once again will likely feature the Democratic field’s diversity with the African American Obama, the Hispanic Richardson, and the female Clinton. Organizers will be holding a similar debate for the Republican candidates on September 27 in Baltimore. But how awkward will it be for a GOP that wants to court minority voters to feature what’s likely to be 11 white males on the stage?
***
Who Else Is TiVOing Tonight’s NBA Draft? With voters more in vacation mode than voting mode, tonight's debate also has one other competitor to deal with -- and that's the NBA Draft. Forget Clinton vs. Obama. The biggest debate in the sports world these days is Oden vs. Durant. Actually, the debate is very similar to Clinton vs. Obama. Oden is seen as an intimidating presence and ready to lead. However, Durant’s upside is considered greater than Oden, and the guy could be the Next Great Thing in the sport. But his downside is that he still hasn’t filled out. Sound familiar?
*** The $30-Plus-Million-Dollar Man? The Obama campaign has told the AP that 138,000 new donors have contributed to Obama this second quarter, up from the 104,000 donors that gave to him in the first quarter. The article adds that the average contribution is likely to be less than the $247-per-person donation in the first quarter (perhaps due to that dinner contest with Obama for people who gave $5). But by our math, if those 138,000 new donors contributed, say, $150 each, that’s more than $20 million (and one only has to move the average donation up to $200 to get over $25 million and so on...). And we’re not even counting those 104,000 donors who gave in the first quarter.
*** Do Or Die: This morning, the Senate holds its cloture vote on the comprehensive immigration bill. NBC’s Ken Strickland notes that 60 votes are required to bring debate to an end, putting the legislation on the path to a final vote. But whether it gets those 60 votes is too close to call. If it fails to do so, it will likely be the end of this -- or any other -- immigration legislation until 2009.
*** Back-To-Back:
A day after speaking in South Carolina, Fred Thompson takes his soon-to-be presidential campaign to another early primary state: New Hampshire, where he headlines a Senate Republican Victory PAC fundraiser. By the way, the
New York Times interviews another person who wasn’t impressed with Thompson’s speech in South Carolina. “We drove an hour and a half to get here, and he didn’t say anything new,” the person said. “I kind of wish, if he’s going to run, announce it. It seems a little bit like a game play. I agree with his conservative stance, but we need specifics.”
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani is in Sacramento, CA; Huckabee delivers the keynote address at the World Congress Weight Management Conference in Chicago; McCain is in DC for Senate business and fundraisers; and Romney charges hard to the end of the second quarter with three fundraising events (in Connecticut, Virginia, and Pennsylvania).
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 44 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 66 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 114 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 131 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 142 days
Countdown to Iowa: 210 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 221 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 495 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 572 days
McClatchy curtain-raises the debate, which will feature a number of African-American journalists focusing on concerns of African-American voters. And the story notes that, to date, Clinton and Obama have split the black vote in polls.
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will introduce the Democratic candidates, his first step into the national spotlight. He has not decided whom he’ll endorse, though it’s speculated he’s leaning towards Obama.
CLINTON: The Politico is the latest to report on the Clinton campaign’s alleged negative-message polling.
EDWARDS:
The campaign should be happy this morning, as the
New York Times has picked up on their Coulter feud with just days to go before the end of the 2nd quarter. Elizabeth Edwards also hit the morning-show circuit today, including an appearance on TODAY. She also gave an interview to the
Des Moines Register to follow-up on her confrontation with Coulter. "Edwards said she did not consult her husband before making the call, though she said campaign aides tracked down the phone number for her. She was sitting in an airport between campaign visits when she saw Coulter on television and called the show."
How much is Coulter a part of the campaign’s last-minute fundraising strategy? NBC's Shawna Thomas reports that it sent out an email to its text-messaging subscribers letting them know they can text the campaign to listen to an exchange between Elizabeth Edwards and Coulter.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The
Los Angeles Times examines the Giuliani stump speech and the candidate on the trail, and it concludes that terrorism is his running mate. As we noted yesterday, there is a new poll that suggests Republicans are perhaps willing to look past Giuliani’s pro-choice stance. But the
New York Daily News says other polls paint a “darker picture.” The
New York Post also reports Giuliani slipping in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- thanks to Fred Thompson.
MCCAIN:
The
Washington Post looks at how immigration has been deadly to McCain's campaign. A top fundraiser for McCain, "who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk for the campaign, was more blunt: ‘It's hurting with the main money guys. Overall, it's definitely a negative.’ He added that the constant barrage of criticism from the likes of Rush Limbaugh is making it difficult to raise money from the conservative wing of the party. ‘Like it or not, our base listens to that stuff,’ the fundraiser said. ‘Whether it's a good bill or a bad bill or an indifferent bill doesn't matter. The folks who are listening to that stuff, it's hard to persuade them with facts.’”
CONTINUED >>
It looks like Obama's camp is trying to one-up Clinton's camp on the fundraising front by being the first of the major candidates to tease out something from their 2nd quarter FEC report. The AP gets the scoop that the campaign has nearly 250,000 donors, up from the 104,000 donors that gave to Obama in the 1st quarter. "The campaign was announcing a goal Thursday of attracting 250,000 donors by midnight on Saturday, the next money reporting deadline. It was 7,214 short as of Wednesday. The campaign said it collected 335,953 contributions — meaning that many individuals made repeat donations — and its goal will be to reach 350,000 by the deadline." Aides to his top competitor, Hillary Clinton "say she will match her $26 million from the first quarter. That another candidate could even approach her fundraising prowess was unthinkable six months ago."
Meanwhile, the candidate many expect to lead the GOP field in fundraising, Mitt Romney, is now noting that Fred Thompson's flirtation with a run has hurt his fundraising a bit.
One of China's top government officials met with representatives of six presidential candidates during a trip to the U.S. last week. The campaign reps this Chinese official met with: Biden, Clinton, Edwards, McCain, Obama and Romney. Among the topics were Darfur and the Beijing Olympics.
CONTINUED >>
This morning at 10:30 am ET, the Senate will take a critical procedural vote on the immigration bill, NBC’s Strickland says. The "cloture" vote requires 60 to pass and would bring debate to an end, putting the bill on the path to a final vote. As with most things on this bill, the vote is too close to call. But if it fails -- and it very well could -- the immigration bill would likely be pulled from the floor again (and will probably dead for the rest of the year, if not the rest of Bush’s presidency).
However, if there are at least 60 votes, the Senate would vote on some more amendments with a vote on final passage on Friday. It is reasonable to assume if they get 60 votes for "cloture" Thursday, they should be able to pass the bill on Friday.
The New York Times: “[S]enators of both parties said they were unsure the bill would clear that [60-vote] hurdle. Several senators who voted to keep the bill alive Tuesday said they would probably oppose efforts to shut off debate.” The article adds that to get to this point today, the Senate yesterday killed amendments from both the left and the right for major changes in the legislation.
The Washington Times adds that the legislation hangs on by a thread today, just two days after the bill was revived, as patience runs out and supporters begin to balk. The change began “after a messy day in the chamber yesterday, with dozens of objections, arguments on the floor and five amendments defeated, at least a half-dozen senators said publicly or privately that their patience has run out.”
The
New York Times front-pages: “The Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday issued subpoenas to the White House, Vice President Dick Cheney’s office and the Justice Department after what the panel’s chairman called “stonewalling of the worst kind” of efforts to investigate the National Security Agency’s policy of wiretapping without warrants.”
 |
|
Already this morning, Bush formally announced Admiral Michael Mullen as the new Joint Chiefs chairman. Later in the morning, he makes remarks at the Naval War College in Rhode Island. With Dick Lugar and other GOP senators pealing away from the Bush Administration on Iraq, Biden’s presidential campaign yesterday sent First Read a research document demonstrating that Biden -- for the last six months -- has stressed that the only way to change Bush’s policies in Iraq is to get GOP lawmakers to split from Bush. “Senator Biden said from the outset of the surge that the president would not change course until his party deserted him,” Biden campaign spokesman Mark Paustenbach said. “That process is hopefully beginning."
Also, GQ has an interview with outgoing White House counselor Dan Bartlett, and he makes this confession: “There was never a more benign incident that turned into a bigger messaging problem than ‘Mission Accomplished.’ It set the wrong tone for what became a protracted, difficult mission. If there was ever a do-over, that would be it.” And on Rumsfeld: “There was a comment Rumsfeld made in one of those books where he claimed that he took the phrase mission accomplished out of the speech itself but that he couldn’t get the banner pulled down. That’s just wrong. I went back and looked at every draft of the speech. That phrase was never in it.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A day after his wife Elizabeth called in to MSNBC’s “Hardball” to confront conservative commentator Ann Coulter, Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards made his own appearance on the show.
He dismissed Coulter, calling her “mean-spirited,” having no shame and being “crazy.” He defended his wife’s efforts to ask Coulter to drop her personal attacks, saying, “You have to stand up to them.”
“I don’t think [Coulter] has any shame; there’s no doubt about that,” Edwards said. “I think that's just the way she behaves. That's who she is. And I think that's a lot of what we see from these people who are just -- that are crazy.”
Read the transcript from today’s Hardball. Click here for video.:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the inaugural forum of the Center for a New American Security,
Hillary Clinton gave a vast overview of her stances on international policy. In a speech that touched on numerous areas of her foreign policy experience and ideas, Clinton was critical of the
Bush Administration's foreign policies, even making a joke at Vice President
Cheney's expense. Her speech ranged from topics like Iraq and Afghanistan to China and Darfur.
She stated America must be the world's leader, but must restore its standing in the world in order to do so. She mentioned a big part in foreign policy is to renew alliances around the world and to work on the following issues: genocide, human rights, nuclear proliferation, and global warming.
On Iraq, she repeated her belief that it is time to bring the troops home. "Iraq continues to steal young American lives," Clinton said. She also said the president has been told by numerous generals and the Iraq Study Group there is no military solution to Iraq, only political, and said if the president does not change course, "any Iraqi government is condemned to failure."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Jenny Anzelmo
Richardson
today spoke before the Center for National Policy in DC, where he outlined his views on Iran and the Middle East. His overall message was to engage Iran in direct talks with no preconditions and with no illusions. He believes that with the help of other nations -- especially Russia and China, which have more leverage with the country -- the US can begin to integrate Iran into the global community.
“In short the message to the Iranians must be clear: Work with the international community and you will be safe and prosperous. Continue to defy the international community and you will suffer." He also said that "no constructive dialogue with Iran is possible until we break the vicious cycle of suspicion and hostile, incendiary rhetoric. If we want Iran to improve its behavior, we would do well to stop threatening to attack them. And we should not fund Iranian émigré groups in the delusional expectation that they will somehow be able to topple the regime.”
Richardson applauded
Condi Rice for “starting to break this ice." But he then went on to take a stab at the Bush Administration for calling Iran an “axis of evil” -- saying that would only continue to fuel hostility between the US and Iran. In order to move forward, Richardson said the US must “acknowledge this difficult shared history” with Iran, while encouraging the Iranians “to come out of the cold, and to build a more constructive relationships not just with the us, but also with the international community.”
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Former GOP Tennessee Sen.
Fred Thompson, speaking at a GOP gathering in South Carolina today, hit his usual core issues, tax cuts, and terrorism -- but also took an apparent shot at GOP front-runner
Rudy Giuliani's checklist of things he says a president needs to do to be successful.Thompson, in what seemed to be a direct criticism of Giuliani, said, "The question is what are your underlying principles what do you believe in?" The still unannounced candidate went on to say, "Anybody can talk from a mental checklist of talking points. What do you really believe in? Where are you coming from?"
Giuliani in speeches has outlined six things he says a leader needs to be successful, and said he has identified 12 "commitments" to voters if elected president.
As you can probably tell, the enormous amount of traffic from the Edwards-Coulter post crashed our server a few times today. Most -- if not all -- of your comments should be posted by now. Thanks for your patience and understanding.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Democrats are moving forward with a vote on de-funding the office of the vice president, even though it appears that
Dick Cheney and his staff are backing off the claim that they are part of the legislative branch. Rep.
Rahm Emanuel (D) says he will put forward an amendment tomorrow that would strip the $4.7 million funding Cheney's executive branch operations ($4.4 for the office of the VP, $300,000 for his residence at the Naval Observatory).
The vote comes on the annual bill that funds Treasury, the offices of the president and the vice president, and several other federal agencies.
As NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reported yesterday, Cheney's office has implied that they will no longer use the argument that they are part of the legislative branch as a means to avoid document security checks, owing to the veep's position as president of the Senate. Having said that, they are still stiffing the National Archives.
The veep's operations are also funded through the defense spending bill (Air Force II, etc.) and the legislative branch spending bill (president of the Senate). These streams will not be touched, for now. It's unclear whether Emanuel's measure will pass. It's still being written.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani has a strong chance at the Republican nomination despite his social views, according to a new nationwide Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates poll, which challenges the conventional notions of conservatism.Giuliani not only leads the field among all Republicans, he also leads among what Tony Fabrizio calls “moralists,” because they consider him a strong leader. And 60 percent of Republicans remarkably say they would vote for a candidate who is pro-choice if they agree with the candidate on other issues.
“Giuliani has an advantage in name ID,” Fabrizio said as he delivered a Power Point presentation to unveil his group’s findings among 2,000 Republicans in an effort to more clearly define the cross-section of Republican voters. “Twenty-nine percent of moralists say leadership qualities are more important than their issue positions. If he can hold 20 to 25 percent of the moralists, that will pose problems for someone who’ll challenge him with that group.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark MurrayBill and Hillary Clinton aren't the only ones who will campaigning in Iowa over the July 4th holiday (July 2-4 to be exact). So will
Barack Obama. His campaign just announced the Illinois senator will be in the Hawkeye State on July 3 -- as well as the next day, when his wife and daughters will join him.
From NBC's Shawna Thomas
First Read has written about Bill Clinton’s fundraising email for his wife, as well as Elizabeth Edwards' newest one on Ann Coulter. Well, here are some of the other emails the campaigns are sending with the end of the second quarter rapidly approaching.
Huckabee’s campaign has this: “Over the next weeks and months I will spend considerable amounts of time on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina visiting with voters, listening to their hopes and concerns and sharing with them my vision for America,” Huckabee says in the email. “You can be certain your contribution will be invested wisely to build a grassroots team in each state.”
And since
McCain doesn’t rely on big money contributions from Washington lobbyist types, he’s depending on you, the email states. “With your generous contribution today, we can thank John McCain for taking our side in the crusade against wasteful Washington. Your immediate support is needed to help us meet our goal of raising $3 million before midnight on Saturday.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
After the Chicago Sun-Times earlier wrote about Obama's and Clinton's duel fundraisers in Chicago -- fewer than ten blocks away from each other -- the Clinton camp and the AP were all over Obama's comments first reported in the newspaper.
The comments that have remained in the news cycle still today are about Clinton's experience and fundraising, when Obama said "the only person who would probably be prepared to be president on Day One would be Bill Clinton, not Hillary Clinton," and that "the Clintons could raise much more money than us" because of their connections from when Bill was president.
But this was not all Obama had to say about the campaign, fundraising, and turf wars. Here, we'll provide you with the full context of Obama's statements.
On the issue of Clinton's experience, the Sun-Times also reported Obama said "we're all very qualified for the job," and then made a jab at Clinton by saying it was true in the '90's, like today, that the nation needs someone "to get beyond the politics that have bogged us down in the past." Obama went on to explain why he is the one qualified to do so. "I think that the message that we're delivering is that we can bridge some of the divides that have blocked progress on healthcare, have blocked progress on energy. That's what we're interested in. It's not repeating the same old fights but trying to bring about a new consensus that can move the country forward."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As expected, we received this fundraising solicitation, via email, from the Edwards campaign regarding yesterday's Elizabeth Edwards vs. Ann Coulter showdown on Hardball.
The solicitation is from Elizabeth Edwards:"Dear Friend,last night I had an important talk with Ann Coulter and I want to tell you what happened. On Monday, Ann announced that instead of using more homophobic slurs to attack John, she will just wish that John had been 'killed in a terrorist assassination plot.'
"Where I am from, when someone does something that displeases you, you politely ask them to stop. So when I heard Ann was going to be on 'Hardball' last night, I decided to call in and ask her to engage on the issues and stop the personal attacks. I told her these kinds of personal attacks lower our political dialogue at precisely the time when we need to raise it, and set a bad example for our children. How did she respond? Sadly, perhaps predictably, with more personal attacks.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Squeezed: Anyone else sense that the walls are closing in on President Bush? Venerable Republican Sen. Dick Lugar, as well as fellow GOPer George Voinovich, is now calling for a change of course in Iraq; John Warner is close, too, apparently. While the Senate immigration bill Bush supports cleared an important hurdle yesterday, its passage is still in doubt, and the debate over it will only continue to alienate a large portion of his base. And even Cheney -- with his claim of not belonging to the executive branch -- is creating additional headaches for the White House. Of course, these three things (Iraq, immigration, and Cheney) have dogged Bush for most of his second term, and he continues to persevere, albeit with lower and lower poll numbers. But is this time different? Will we begin to see loyal Bush backers break away from Bush, like Matthew Dowd did back in April? Is this not just the "turning point" week on Iraq, but also the denouement of the Bush presidency?
VIDEO: Sen. Richard Lugar talks to TODAY’s Matt Lauer after breaking ranks with the president on the Iraq war.
*** Lights, Camera, Action! Fred Thompson travels to Columbia, SC to speak at a state GOP event there, and he holds a media avail afterwards. His first three big events since he first began flirting with a presidential bid -- in Orange County, CA, at the Virginia GOP, and on Leno -- didn’t exactly set the rooms on fire. Even at yesterday’s appearance in Nashville, one supporter told the New York Times that he wasn’t floored by Thompson. “It was the same thing he’s said everywhere else, nothing new.” Will today be different?
*** I Want My MTV...: A New York Times/CBS/MTV poll finds that Democrats appear to be sitting pretty with Americans ages 17-29. More than half of them said they’d vote for a Democrat in next year’s presidential race, and they are more likely than the general population to support government-run health care and gay marriage. (Yet interestingly, they are more optimistic about the Iraq war.) But will young voters actually show up in 2008? This suggests they might: “Fifty-eight percent said they were paying attention to the campaign. By contrast, at this point in the 2004 presidential campaign, 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds said they were paying a lot or some attention to the campaign.”
*** Ambushed: With Ann Coulter appearing on Hardball yesterday, Elizabeth Edwards called into the show to blast Coulter for personal attacks on her husband and family. As the end of the second quarter rapidly approaches, anyone want to bet we see a fundraising email from the Edwards camp that highlights yesterday’s exchange -- which, by the way, got played on TODAY?
*** Meaty Foreign Policy Speech Day: Both Clinton and Hagel give speeches at the Center for a New American Security, a new DC-based nonpartisan research institute. Meanwhile, Richardson is also in DC, where he addresses the Center for National Policy. Per Richardson’s camp, the speech will be on Iran and how to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Edwards raises money in Houston; Giuliani is in Pittsburgh; McCain and Romney both fundraise in New York City; Paul continues his round of off-beat interviews -- this time with the radio show "Mancow in the Morning"; and Tommy Thompson is in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 45 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 67 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 115 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 132 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 143 days
Countdown to Iowa: 211 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 222 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 496 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 573 days
The Boston Globe writes that Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will introduce the Democratic candidates at the Howard University debate in DC tomorrow night.
CLINTON:
Last night's Warren Buffett event raised the campaign at least" $1 million, according to the
Washington Post. Now Buffett has NOT endorsed Clinton. “But he has already donated the maximum $4,600 allowed by an individual to Clinton's presidential campaign. Buffett called Clinton ‘the person to run the country.’ He has not donated to any other candidate, according to public records, although he has said he would also support Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in a similar event.” NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum adds that Buffett said the American public will make the choice between Clinton and Obama. "I don't want to turn my back on either one of them. I think they're both terrific people," Buffett said, "but I think Hillary would make a wonderful president of the United States." Buffett did not answer yes when asked if Clinton is good for business, but he didn’t say no, either. "I think Hillary Clinton is good for America. Anybody that's good for America is good for business." He continued to talk about Clinton's assets. "I've known her for a long time. I've admired her brains. I've admired her energy. I've admired the way she has carried out her job in the Senate. I think she would make an absolutely first class president. When she asked me if I would participate in an event like this, I jumped at the chance."
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: First Read has confirmed that Gingrich gave $17,500 to the Iowa GOP to purchase a box at the Ames straw poll. Officially, this is part of Gingrich’s series of workshops on “transformation, how to reach out to all elected officials, not just presidential,” according to Rick Tyler, a Gingrich spokesman. “It’s a solutions-based approach to government and politics.”
As far as whether or not this should be interpreted as Gingrich keeping his hat in the presidential ring, Tyler said, “Newt’s been consistent and clear. He won’t think about running until after September 29th. He’s focusing on the early caucus and primary states, trying to shape the debate, and Ames is a great place to do it.”
GIULIANI: One of the
targets in Giuliani's speech at Regent University yesterday was Bill Clinton. Giuliani said "Clinton made a 'big mistake' when he failed to see the first World Trade Center attack as an act of terror rather than mere crime -- one that set the stage for even bigger and bolder attacks culminating with 9/11." At a later event yesterday, "Giuliani reiterated his criticism of Clinton over the first World Trade Center attack in 1993 and said Clinton's reaction was emblematic of a "decade of denial." But he also seemed to soften his criticism of Clinton, saying, "I'm not blaming anybody back then. What I am saying is, I do blame people after Sept. 11. Now you have to get it."
CONTINUED >>
Quinnipiac is out with its "swing state" polls (Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania). Giuliani leads in all three GOP primaries, but the lead is dwindling, with Fred Thompson now in second (or tied for second) in all three states. Clinton's lead over Obama is solid in all three, while both match up about the same in general election contests with Giuliani -- though the one state where Obama underperforms Clinton is in Florida.
Bloomberg's Salant examines the second quarter positioning and notes: "Thus far, the Darwinian money quest has divided the field into three main categories: leaders Obama, Clinton, Romney and Giuliani; laggards such as John McCain and John Edwards; and strivers including Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden."
The
New York Times: “By a vote of 64 to 35, the Senate decided on Tuesday to take up a revised version of a comprehensive immigration bill that was pulled from the Senate floor nearly three weeks ago.” But: “The vote did not guarantee passage of the bill.” The
Washington Times adds that there are at least a dozen senators who have said that their ‘Yes’ vote yesterday was simply to begin the debate, and that they could vote to block the bill through a filibuster vote, or vote against it on final passage.
While the Senate moved a tiny bit closer to passing an immigration bill, the House GOP caucus held a vote yesterday indicating that just 23 members could support the Senate legislation. That's at least 40 members short of Speaker Pelosi's demand of 60-70 GOP votes before she'll bring the immigration reform bill to the House floor.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post adds Sen. John Warner (who praised Lugar's speech) and even Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell to the list of senators changing their tone on Iraq.
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), a supporter of the troop surge and the war,
said he would wait until the September report to reassess the Iraq situation. But he added that when Lugar speaks, “everybody tends to listen.”
The
New York Times also notes that Sen. George Voinovich “echoed Mr. Lugar’s message in a letter to the president on Tuesday, a critique whose timing was coordinated to follow on the heels of Mr. Lugar’s. ‘I am also concerned that we are running out of time,’ Mr. Voinovich wrote in the letter.”
Today's installment of the Washington Post’s Cheney series documents the vice president’s role in various energy and environments issues. And it concludes with the news that, essentially, Cheney drove ex-EPA head Christie Whitman into resigning.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
The wife of Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards called into MSNBC’s “Hardball” on Tuesday to confront Ann Coulter on her personal attacks on her husband and family.
Coulter, the controversial conservative commentator, appeared on an outdoor set with host Chris Matthews -- and also with dozens of supporters and detractors waiting to ask questions. But there was another person waiting to pose a question to Coulter: Elizabeth Edwards.
According to an Edwards campaign aide, Elizabeth Edwards wanted to call into the show when she heard that Coulter would be taking questions, and she called a Hardball producer to get the phone number needed to dial into the show. The result is the exchange below:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
When
Fred Thompson arrived in Nashville this morning, he had a warm homecoming. Supporters greeted him with loud cheers of "Run Fred, Run." At another point, supporters started to chant "Fred, Fred, Fred." Some held home-made signs saying, "I'm Proud to be a Fred Head, FDT '08." The TV star and former senator signed a few.
Thompson recounted his decision to run for the presidency. "I've never craved the office of the presidency," he said. "You all know me well enough to know that. I've always been a Tennessean; I've always run in Tennessee. But these times are different and to have the opportunity maybe to make a difference ... in the direction of your country, and to be able to provide some leadership, is something that you cannot turn your back on."
At this point, a supporter in the audience yelled, "Your country needs you Fred!" The rest of the supporters continued to cheer for Thompson, who kept the visit short.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The comprehensive immigration bill in the Senate cleared its first hurdle this week when the "motion to proceed" picked up 64 votes today (it needed 60 to move forward). However, as NBC's Ken Strickland has reported, the actual heavy lifting begins with votes on amendments that could affect the core elements in the bill -- and that could determine whether or not it eventually passes the Senate.
Here are some interesting tidbits from today's 64-35 vote in the Senate:
-- All presidential candidates, Democrat and Republican, voted for the motion to proceed (Biden, Brownback, Clinton, Dodd, McCain, Obama)
-- 24 Republicans voted for it (Bennett, Bond, Brownback, Burr, Coleman, Collins, Craig, Domenici, Ensign, Graham, Gregg, Hagel, Kyl, Lott, Lugar, Martinez, McCain, McConnell, Murkowski, Snowe, Specter, Stevens, Voinovich, Warner)
-- 9 Democrats voted against it (Baucus, Bayh, Byrd, Dorgan, Landrieu, McCaskill, Rockefeller, Stabenow, Tester)
-- the independents were split: Lieberman voted for it, while Sanders voted against it.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
Bill Clinton won't hit the campaign trail for his wife until next week, but he's already pitching in -- at least electronically -- to help boost
Hillary's second quarter fundraising numbers. In an email solicitation that just arrived in our inboxes, Clinton says 1) that Hillary's opponents might outraise her; 2) that she won't let Swift Boat-like attacks go unanswered; and 3) that she turned down high-paying jobs out of law school to help children -- which is similar to the message that
Obama tries to get across in his
first TV ads.
"Come June 30, all the campaigns will be measured on what they raised in the last three months. We have to raise more online before then to show her strength and keep her campaign going," Bill says. "The fact is, our opponents may very well outraise us -- and we can't afford to lose momentum now."
More: "She's also the best candidate to beat the Republican machine. You know Hillary will never let a swift boat-style attack go unanswered. Even when they outspent her two-to-one in her Senate campaign, she still came out on top -- in a landslide. And when she ran for reelection, she won almost 60 percent of the votes in New York counties that went for President Bush in 2004. When Republicans saw what she did, instead of what her opponents said about her, they voted for her too."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Edwards campaign said they originally planned to go on the air the week after July 4th, but “we’re running ahead of our budget plan, so we decided to get on the air,” Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince said on a conference call with reporters. They call this a “strong buy,” but did not elaborate except to say, “You’re going to see it a lot if you’re in New Hampshire,” Prince said.
Edwards raised $14 million in the first quarter -- third in the Democratic race behind Clinton ($26 million) and Obama ($25.7 million). The campaign says their goal for this quarter is $9 million, which would again be behind Clinton and Obama, who are widely expected to raise upwards of $20 million each. Edwards could potentially find himself doubled in campaign cash, but his campaign says the goal all along has been to raise $22 million by the end of the second quarter and $40 million by the end of the year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
Sportswriting legend Grantland Rice once famously opened his story about a 1924 football game with the line, "Outlined against a blue-gray October sky, the Four Horsemen rode again."
He was definitely not describing any members of Congress.
Last night's annual Congressional baseball game -- won by the Republicans (for the seventh straight year) 5-2 -- definitely didn't feature any athletic performances of Horsemen-like proportions.
After all, Washingtonians don't pile in to DC's RFK stadium -- the temporary home of the washout Washington Nationals -- because they expect no-hitters or grand slams from their elected officials. There's a certain undeniable fun to be had in watching our nation's revered officeholders drop a pop-up fly or wildly overthrow to second base. With apologies to MLB Hall-of-Famer Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY-3.27 ERA), we didn't elect them because they can play baseball.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
House Republicans have a message to supporters of comprehensive immigration reform: Beware all ye who enter here. They plan to pass an internal House GOP resolution demonstrating their opposition to the Senate bill before it even gets to the House. So they put it to a vote this morning at their weekly meeting -- but only got to a "test" procedural vote before they ran out of time. They'll get to it tomorrow or the next day. UPDATE: They'll actually meet at 5:30 pm ET today to do this.
House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi has said that she wants the president to guarantee 70 Republican votes in the House for comprehensive reform before she puts the measure on the floor. Also, House Democrats are wrapping up a series of listening sessions with their rank and file. Some themes emerging: Dems are looking for those 70 Republicans to provide some cover; many don't like the guest-worker program and the points system in the Senate bill; and many Democrats, like Republicans, are concerned about beefing up border security first.
Meanwhile,
President Bush today made another -- perhaps final? -- pitch for the Senate to pass the Senate bill, as the chamber restarts debate on the legislation. "The first thing that we've got to recognize in the country is that the system isn't working," Bush said at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House. "The immigration system needs reform. The status quo is unacceptable... [And] if the status quo is unacceptable, we need to replace it with something that is acceptable, and have been working toward that end with both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carly Zakin
Presidential hopeful
Mike Huckabee hosted a conference call with bloggers this morning to emphasize his conservatism and his commitment to persevere in the race despite a lack of attention from the national media. But he had two of his closest supporters to do most of the talking for him. Evangelical leader Dr. James Robinson and Dr. Michael P. Farris, chairman and general counsel of the Home Legal Defense Association. praised Huckabee for his conviction, character, ability to communicate as a leader, and experience as governor. Both men drew comparisons to President Reagan. And in what seemed to be a heavy-handed jab directed at
Giuliani (and now possibly
Bloomberg), Farris added, “We need a governor. Governors win; senators don’t. Certainly mayors of New York don’t win a presidency.”
Both Huckabee and his supporters addressed the effects of blogging and the national media attention. Huckabee praised bloggers “who have really become one of the most important informational sources in the process of electing the president. The impact of blogging and how that has such an incredible effect in getting information out to people is probably going to be the story of the ’08 race.” Robinson addressed the need for a leader to be comfortable with a national media that “tends to distort with what’s being said and misrepresent.”
Some highlights in the Q&A:
-- Huckabee said he does not the support the immigration bill the way it is
-- He acknowledged the money his campaign will raise for the 2nd quarter will not be of the same level that “some of these other guys” have been raising. But while the national press will inevitably support them, Huckabee is confident that “the trajectory will continue to go upward"
-- He called Giuliani and McCain’s decision to pull out of the Iowa straw poll a sign of “their unwillingness to play the game.”
-- He said supports the Fair Tax
-- He wants to achieve energy independence by the end of his second term
From NBC's Mark Murray
In the first GOP presidential debate back in May, MSNBC's Chris Matthews -- citing poll numbers showing that few Americans think that the country is on the right track -- asked Giuliani: How do we get back to Ronald Reagan's morning in America? Giuliani replied, "We get back to it with optimism."
That kind of question didn't reappear at the next two GOP debates, but the
Politico reports that
Romney yesterday noted its premise: that the country is headed in the wrong direction. "'We're going to change the course of America,' Romney told about 800 donors gathered for a pep rally at the Boston Red Sox's Fenway Park. 'It's on a course right now that's just not quite right. We've got a lot of problems around the world that need our leadership as a nation.'"
The Politico adds that Romney's words were "some of his most unambiguous language to date to distance himself from President Bush." And we wouldn't be surprised if more Republican presidential candidates use this kind of language 1) to separate themselves from Bush and 2) to hammer home the message that they represent change -- as hard as that might be for a Republican in this environment.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In case you were wondering just how it’s done, the Columbia State newspaper has an up-and-running feature on how to win the South Carolina Republican and Democratic primaries. It outlines who the influence peddlers are, must-stops for candidates and where to find the necessary voting blocs.
How to win the Democratic Primary
How to win the Republican primary
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Edwards is up with his
first ad in New Hampshire today, a 30-second spot highlighting his focus on poverty. In it, he repeats part of his stump speech, telling viewers, "It's time for the President of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war," the
Manchester Union-Leader reports. Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, appears briefly, and the ad shows close-ups of Edwards, addressing supporters. Americans "know what needs to be done to lift families out of poverty, to strengthen the middle class,” Edwards says. “Will we make America the country of the 21st century? That depends on all of us."
Dodd, Richardson and Romney are already up on the air in the Granite State. Edwards’ first campaign TV ad was in Iowa in May. In it, he urges Congress to end the war in Iraq.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Senior advisers say the presumed presidential candidate
Fred Thompson will be greeted by supporters when he lands in Nashville today (he'll arrive on a private plane and go right to small hangar)Thompson will work a rope line. Advisers say he will also tour potential office space for his national headquarters in the Old Center City called Fall School, the oldest existing school that has been converted to office space.
Advisers say no deals have been signed either in Tennessee or Northern Virginia on office space.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Return To Regent: Giuliani addresses Pat Robertson’s Regent University today, after the tragic Virginia Tech shootings nixed his previously scheduled appearance back in mid-April. This speech -- which isn’t exactly on friendly turf for a pro-choice, pro-stem cell candidate -- comes at a rough time for the campaign (declining poll numbers, a top Iowa adviser who’s headed to OMB, a South Carolina state chair who was indicted on cocaine charges, and more dents to his 9/11 reputation). Yet given the venue, it appears Giuliani will stick with his meat and potatoes: A campaign spokesperson expects him to talk about his “12 commitments,” including the one he unveiled last week in Iowa on fiscal discipline. But he won’t make new news on social issues, the spokesperson says.
*** Has Bush lost Dick Lugar? Last night, the venerable GOP senator called for a change of course in Iraq, even before General Petraeus’ September report (although Lugar isn’t calling for complete troop withdrawal). "In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved,” he said. What’s significant about Lugar’s speech last night is that it provides covers for other Republicans -- and just not those in blue states -- who want to turn the page on Iraq.
*** Wanna Fire Up Lefty Bloggers? Point out this article from Fortune about Hillary Clinton's courtship of big business, including a Bush Ranger or two. And then remind those same lefty bloggers that in Barack Obama's first TV ads, he features a GOP state legislator (who has endorsed John McCain, by the way) talking about his ability to build consensus. Seriously, there are a lot of influential folks on the left who hate when Democrats look like they are reaching out to Republicans. It will be interesting if Edwards tries to capitalize on this. Then again, both Clinton and Obama need to prove electability, so the more their GOP courtships are reported, the better for each of them -- particularly Obama, who is counting on independents (and even some Republicans) to crossover (in both Iowa and New Hampshire in particular) and vote for him in the Dem primary or caucuses.
*** Supreme Decision: Is it us, or was yesterday’s 5-4 Supreme Court ruling -- which said it’s unconstitutional to ban union- and corporate-backed ads that mention a candidate’s name 60 days before an election -- a really BIG deal that changes the face of the 2008 campaign more so than any of us can fathom right now? Imagine if ACT (the Democratic group that tried to defeat Bush in '04) or Progress for America (The GOP group formed to help re-elect Bush) could have directly targeted Kerry or Bush respectively right before the election? Now they can. Perhaps the bigger beneficiary of this decision is actually the new Democratic congressional majority. Because now, the Democrats can watch their labor friends dump a ton of money on the airwaves rather than just on the ground.
*** Special Election Time: Today is the special election in California to replace the late Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D), who died of cancer earlier this year. African-American Democratic lawmakers have long held this LA district. But with several black candidates in the running -- including state Rep. Laura Richardson and Valerie McDonald (daughter of the late congresswoman) -- could that leave an opening for Hispanic state Sen. Jenny Oropeza? The Congressional Hispanic Caucus has infused Oropeza’s campaign with cash, and she is the candidate of choice of the state and local Democratic parties. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held Aug. 21. Polls open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET.
*** Warren, Not Jimmy: Hillary Clinton tonight in New York has an open-press conversation with famed investor Warren Buffett. Per a Clinton spokesman, Buffett hasn’t endorsed her. But: “We’re delighted that he’s hosting this event for her.”
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden’s son Beau campaigns for his father in Iowa; Edwards raises money in California; Huckabee holds a conference call this morning with bloggers; McCain has four fundraisers in Virginia; Obama is in Chicago, and then heads to DC; Paul appears on G4 TV's news program "Attack of the Show"; Romney raises money in Florida and Boston; Fred Thompson is in Nashville; and Tommy Thompson is in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 46 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 68 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 116 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 133 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 144 days
Countdown to Iowa: 212 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 223 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 497 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 574 days
BIDEN: The Delaware senator named an Iraq veteran -- who is a native of Mississippi and lives in Des Moines -- as the head of his veterans committee.
CLINTON:
South Carolina conservative Rep. Bob Inglis said yesterday he was
hoping that Clinton would be the Dem nominee. "I'm sort of hopeful Hillary is the nominee because I think that's winnable," Inglis told a small crowd Monday. "It's more of a challenge if Obama is the nominee because he has less of a record to defend." Inglis has yet to endorse in the GOP primary.
Bill Clinton was in Phoenix last night
raising money for the Arizona Democratic Party.
Fortune's Nina Easton has a great look at how big business is being courted in the presidential race. The star of this piece is Clinton, who is having lots of success wooing some key business leaders who backed Bush.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The
Washington Post writes about the recent hiccups facing the Giuliani campaign: "Every campaign faces bad news at one time or another, but with a fundraising deadline looming Saturday, the timing couldn't be worse. Most voters are not tuned in, but for those who are giving and raising money for the former New York mayor, the heartburn-inducing headlines may make them think twice. The string of events -- some Giuliani's making, some out of his hands -- comes as national polls continue to show him ahead of his rivals, but surveys in early voting states have him trailing or losing ground."
A week after Giuliani’s South Carolina chairman was indicted on cocaine trafficking charges, Giuliani replaced him -- with the indicted man’s father.
The New York Daily News highlights a poll showing Bloomberg hurting Giuliani (slightly) in a three-way Clinton-Giuliani-Bloomberg general election.
MCCAIN:
In an interview with the
AP, McCain dismissed some of the recent polls in South Carolina that have showed him in single digits. He said that poll is just not true. With "veterans alone, we are doing much better than that," he said. The AP story also indicates that more staff changes in the campaign "could be in the offing."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times on the Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling yesterday on campaign finance: “While the decision did not deal directly with the soft-money ban, which is in a separate section of the law, election experts said the effect would be to undercut the soft-money section as well by permitting a largely unlimited flow of money from corporate treasuries to pay for the all-important broadcast advertisements in the weeks before primary and general elections. Groups seeking to influence the outcome of the election could easily sidestep the prohibition on explicit appeals for or against candidates, supporters of the law said.”
By the way, the New York Sun's Sager notes that Giuliani's statement in support of the Court's decision is a change. Giuliani had been "supportive of McCain Feingold" in the past. Adds Sager: "Giuliani may never have specifically addressed the ad ban, but I've never heard a skeptical word from him on the issue until now."
Following up on his tough assessment on "Meet the Press," the Politico's Roger Simon offers up a does of what he believes is reality regarding Bloomberg and wonders if he's simply a press fascination because of his checkbook.
As of this writing, Bush is participating in a briefing on the comprehensive immigration reform bill he supports. Meanwhile, the Senate today returns to complete work on the bill, staring work most likely this afternoon, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. Supporters face several hurdles before a final vote, which makes final passage hard to predict. The bill's supporters are optimistic, while their opponents feel momentum is on their side. However, there is consensus from both Democratic and Republican leaders to dispose of the bill this week before the Senate adjourns for its July 4th recess.
The first action should occur late this morning with a procedural vote that simply seeks to bring the bill to the floor. This "motion to proceed" will require 60 votes. And assuming the 60 votes are there (a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption), the Senate will then start the heavy lifting with votes on amendments that could ultimately affect the core elements of the legislation: border security and workplace enforcement, a guest-worker program, and a path to citizenship.
There will be votes of about two dozen amendments that address everything from what critics call an amnesty provision to a measure shifting the emphasis of future immigration back to family reunification. Some of the amendments are considered "poison pills," which, if passed, could dissolve the fragile coalition holding the bill together.
The Washington Times examines the tough road ahead for the immigration bill.
NDN and the National Council of La Raza hold a media briefing this morning to discuss the current immigration debate and the Latino community.
Last night, GOP Sen. Dick Lugar, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called on President Bush to initiate a change of course in Iraq -- with some troop redeployments -- even before General Petraeus issues his September report, NBC’s Strickland says. "I think we know enough now," he said after delivering a lengthy speech on the Senate floor. "What we need is a plan for repositioning [some troops] and for diplomacy." "We don't owe the President our unquestioning agreement, but we do owe him and the American people our constructive engagement," Lugar said. "In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved.”
The Indianapolis Star on Lugar’s speech: “He still does not support a total troop withdrawal, which he said would increase the risk of a wider regional conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and be a ‘severe blow’ to U.S. credibility… Lugar's views carry extra weight because he's one of the leading foreign policy experts in Congress. He's also seen as someone who does not take partisan shots.”
The AP: “The unusually blunt assessment Monday deals a political blow to Bush, who has relied heavily on GOP support to stave off anti-war legislation. It also comes as a surprise. Most Republicans have said they were willing to wait until September to see if Bush's recently ordered troop buildup in Iraq was working.”
Today's installment of the Washington Post's Cheney series focuses on the vice president’s role in all things that have NOTHING to do with the war.
And as he faces sentencing, ex-Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman (D) is trying one last defense: blaming Karl Rove. "It may be a long shot as a legal argument, but at least one influential Republican and a number of Democrats are questioning whether politics may have played a role in the case.”
From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Last night, the group, “Indian-Americans for
Hillary” held a fundraiser at the Sheraton New York Hotel in Manhattan. In some ways this was the coming out party for the Indian-American community’s ability to fundraise and organize for a high-profile candidate, and it came just days after an
Obama opposition research document blasted Clinton's ties to Indian-American donors (Obama later apologized for the document).
Clinton spoke of her and former President Bill Clinton’s visits to India, and praised the Indian-American community’s commitment to education. Her speech ended to a standing ovation and the familiar strains of KT Tunstall’s “Suddenly I See.” But nowhere to be heard was her anointed campaign tune, Celine Dion’s “You and I.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama is up in Iowa this week with the
first TV ads of his campaign, the
AP reports. They are biographical and try to highlight his sense of social justice and bill him as a consensus builder.
The first ad focuses on Obama’s decision to turn down lucrative offers from law firms after graduating from Harvard Law. Instead, he moved to Chicago to work as a civil rights attorney. The second focuses on his work in the Illinois state Senate. Both ads feature Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe and Republican Illinois state Sen. Kirk Dillard.
"Senator Obama worked on some of the deepest issues we had and was successful in a bipartisan way," Dillard says in the second ad.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Soon after the Supreme Court
ruled today that a Wisconsin anti-abortion group should have been allowed to run TV ads in the final two months before the 2004 election -- which weakens the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law -- guess who released a statement praising the ruling?
Romney, of course.
"Score one for free speech," Romney said. "Today the Supreme Court reaffirmed the First Amendment by rejecting a key feature of McCain-Feingold. The law trampled the basic right of the American people to participate in their democracy. It also purported to reduce the influence of money in politics, but we now know that influence is greater than ever. McCain-Feingold was a poorly-crafted bill. Today's decision restores, in part, to the American people a right critical to their freedom of political participation and expression."
This isn't the first time -- and it won't be the last -- Romney has tried to whack GOP rival McCain over his authorship of McCain-Feingold. "My fear is that McCain-Kennedy would do to immigration what McCain-Feingold has done to campaign finance and money in politics, and that's bad," Romney said at the second GOP debate. (McCain replied to the charge: "Well, I take and kept a consistent position on campaign finance reform... I have kept a consistent position on right to life. And I haven't changed my position on even-numbered years or have changed because of the different offices that I may be running for.")
hFrom NBC's Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier this morning, former EPA chief
Christie Whitman -- who testifies on Capitol Hill today --
has charged that
Giuliani blocked her efforts to force World Trade Center workers to wear respirators, and that city officials didn't want EPA workers wearing hazmat suits. On Saturday, the Giuliani campaign pushed back against Whitman's claims with a three-page "setting the record straight" research document, calling them "baseless" and "revisionist."
“Every effort was made by Mayor Giuliani and his staff to ensure the safety of all workers at Ground Zero in the aftermath of this unprecedented act of terror," said former deputy mayor Joe Lhota in the press release. "All workers at Ground Zero were instructed repeatedly to wear their respirators. This is well-documented and indisputable. No one from the City ever tried to block the Environmental Protection Agency. Any statement or suggestion to the contrary is simply baseless. Administrator Whitman never voiced any of these concerns at the time – not at the daily meetings which included federal, state and local officials, not at any press conferences. Doing so now is revisionist at best.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Survey and Policy Research Institute poll shows Clinton and Giuliani leading in California. On the Dem side, Clinton is at 37%, while Edwards and Obama are tied at 15% each. Perhaps most strikingly, among women, Clinton is at 45% -- versus 13% for Obama and 8% for Edwards.
On the GOP side, Giuliani is ahead at 25%, followed by Fred Thompson at 16%, McCain at 14%, and Romney at 5%.
The poll also finds that just 25% of Californians approve of President Bush's job.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** The Dash For Cash: With five days to go before the end of the 2nd quarter, here's what we think we know reading the tea leaves (and spin): Romney will be the top Republican again (no candidate is disputing this -- even Giuliani, who we thought would be neck-and-neck this quarter). McCain will lag, apparently, but should we wonder why his campaign is at ease talking about its money woes?
*** (Not So) Great Expectations: On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign continues to boost the idea that it'll be lucky to stay even with Obama. Come again? How did the Clintons pull this spin off? This is their muscle quarter. On paper, it’s Clinton who should be slightly favored to outraise Obama -- not vice versa. It would be a BIG deal if Obama outraises Clinton for a second quarter in a row (in primary money). By the way, don't miss the Richardson camp's bragging that it will outraise Edwards. You really raising $10 million-plus, governor?
*** Whitman vs. Giuliani: One-time Giuliani ideological soul mate, Christie Whitman, becomes a potential political problem as she testifies on the Hill about the Giuliani Administration’s environmental-hazard response at Ground Zero and at 30 Rock (for the anthrax attacks). These charges are especially significant because one would assume the former moderate governor of New Jersey -- who won the same year as Giuliani won in New York -- would be supporting Giuliani's White House bid. Given what’s here, that's, um, unlikely.
*** The Globe’s Back: We had been wondering where the usually tough-on-its-own Boston Globe had been with its coverage on Romney. Now we know -- in the last couple of days, it has run some significant “who is Mitt Romney?” stories -- including details of the near-fatal car crash he was in as a missionary in France, his Mexico Mormon relatives, and his Vietnam draft deferrals.
*** Rezko’s Return: Both Clinton and Obama are raising money today on Obama’s turf of Chicago. Yet the Chicago Sun-Times says that one of the hosts of Clinton’s fundraiser is a lawyer referenced in Rezko’s public-corruption indictment (although the paper makes it clear that Clinton has no direct link to Rezko). Also, check out that Obama has given back more Rezko-related money, including cash from this particular lawyer.
*** On The Trail: Dodd is in Iowa, where he participates in an Iowa professional firefighters state convention golf tournament and then holds a meet-and-greet; Edwards and his wife appear on The Tonight Show; McCain hits a fundraiser in Columbia, SC and then holds a press conference in Greenville; Romney and his supporters work the phones for an “America’s Calling” fundraising event, and Romney speaks to the press afterwards; and Tommy Thompson is in New Hampshire.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 1 day
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 47 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 69 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 117 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 134 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 145 days
Countdown to Iowa: 213 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 224 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 498 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 575 days
GIULIANI: In an interview with WNBC-TV, ex-EPA dir.
Christie Whitman says Giuliani "blocked her efforts to force World Trade Center workers to wear respirators." She also said city officials didn't want EPA workers wearing haz-mat suits because they "didn't want this image of a city falling apart." Whitman will be testifying on the Hill today about the ground zero air quality issue. Whitman also criticized Giuliani's handling of a suspected anthrax attack at NBC's Rockefeller Center headquarters weeks after 9/11. "There was concern by the city that EPA workers not be seen in the haz-mat suits," she said. "They didn't want this image of a city falling apart. I said, 'Well, that's not acceptable.'" Giuliani's former Deputy Mayor Joe Lhota rejected Whitman's claims. "As the incident commander, F.D.N.Y.’s response was exemplary. They coordinated, conducted and affected a multi-agency response in a timely, safe and efficient fashion," Lhota said.
As some predicted, the New York City tabs are not going to be able to get enough of Bloomberg v. Giuliani. The New York Post decided to survey senior city workers who worked with both mayors to get their take on which "Hizzoner" is ready to be POTUS. "Bloomberg's laid-back leadership style received glowing reviews, but most said they'd vote for him only if there were no other choice but Giuliani."
Per Newsday, Giuliani will stand by his longtime friend Alan Placa, a Catholic priest accused of molesting students, "despite a new call by an advocacy group for priest-abuse victims to fire the suspended priest from his consulting firm, a Giuliani aide said Friday. The GOP presidential front-runner was urged to ax Placa by David Clohessy, national director of the Survivors Network of Those Abused by Priests, after Salon Web-magazine ran a story Friday about the 5-year-old allegations of molesting students against Placa and his job at Giuliani Partners. But Giuliani will not fire Placa, who is also an attorney, from his consulting job, said Giuliani Partners spokeswoman Sunny Mindel. "The mayor believes Alan Placa has been unjustly accused," she said.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
The
AP says that Clinton, who was best known in the 1990s for her failed effort to revamp the nation’s health-care system, has now become cautious on the issue of health care. “While rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards have both laid out sweeping health care reform plans with estimated costs attached, Clinton has so far proposed only modest changes to the existing system while avoiding the vexing question of how to provide coverage for all.” More: “Aides say her plan will be rolled out through a series of speeches focusing on different aspects of health care reform, with the topic of universal coverage to be tackled last.”
When Clinton hits a fundraiser tonight in Chicago, one of the hosts is a lawyer referenced in the public-corruption indictment of Tony Rezko, the Chicago Sun-Times writes. “Clinton (D-N.Y.) has no direct connection to Rezko. But one of 20 ‘chairs’ for her Palmer House Hilton event is Myron Cherry, who is among a large circle of people to be enmeshed in two federal indictments Rezko is fighting. Most of those people, including Cherry, have not been charged with any crimes.”
The Sun-Times also notes that Clinton hasn't returned any money from Cherry, whose firm has handled several cases for Int'l Profit Associates, whose associates have given nearly $130,000 to Clinton. The company has been fighting an EEOC sexual-harassment lawsuit and is under investigation by the state of Illinois. Democrats like Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle (D) have returned money from the company.
And speaking of Rezko, Obama has given back another $3,500 in Rezko-connected money, including money from Cherry.
CONTINUED >>
Newsweek does its "Can-Bloomberg-Be-Serious story and notes something that we're guessing eventual Bloomberg foes will highlight. "Bloomberg demands loyalty. Employees who leave are seldom, if ever, welcomed back. At Bloomberg News, security is strict. All employees must wear identity badges at all times; a fingerprint identification is required to log on to computers. Cameras survey the newsroom, in part to make sure no one is leaking sensitive financial data. To encourage communication and fraternity, free snacks are available in an office food court. To some Bloomberg staffers, it all seems a bit Orwellian, though they say that ethics standards are high and that hard work is fairly rewarded."
Clinton and Fred Thompson lead in Nevada, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. Clinton has a substantial double-digit lead over Obama (39%-17%), while Thompson, who has not even declared yet for the presidential race, leads Mitt Romney (25%-20%, a statistical tie). Rounding out the Democratic field, Edwards is five points behind Obama, and Richardson registers five points behind Edwards. On the GOP side, Giuliani comes in with 17%, McCain with 8%, Huckabee with 3%. Undecideds made up 21% of the vote on the Democratic side and 23% on the Republican side.
With less than a week to go before the June 30 fundraising deadline, speculation is running wild in the press. Politico has Romney potentially raising at least $14 million this quarter, noting that the Romney camp is pointing to the first two quarters of George W. Bush in '99 as the "gold standard." Bush raised $37 million by the end of June 30 in '99. Romney raised $23 million. Meanwhile, "McCain is expected to finish last again among the top three declared candidates, resurrecting fresh doubts about what has happened to the former front-runner."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Daily News: “A revived immigration reform bill that could legalize some 12 million undocumented immigrants faces a crucial vote as soon as tomorrow - and its prospects are far from certain. ‘It's going to be an interesting week,’ said White House spokesman Scott Stanzel. President Bush appealed to senators in his Saturday radio address to ‘summon the courage’ to move the bill forward. The White House worked with senators on both sides of the aisle to resurrect the measure after it stalled early this month.” On Tuesday, Bush will participate in a briefing on the immigration bill.
Bloomberg's Al Hunt writes on the never-ending battle over immigration reform and concludes: "Whatever the short-term effects, however, rejecting the immigration overhaul would be a long-term disaster for Republicans. It would deny Bush any domestic legacy, making him the most-failed second-term president in modern American politics. History tells us that would drag down his party in subsequent elections."
This is a potential blockbuster lead by the
Los Angeles Times: "The Bush administration has begun exploring ways of offering Congress a compromise deal on Iraq policy to avert bruising battles in coming months, U.S. officials said. With public support of the war dropping, President Bush has authorized an internal policy review to find a plan that could satisfy opponents without sacrificing his top goals, the officials said. The president and senior officials ‘realize they can't keep fighting this over and over,’ said one administration official, who along with others declined to be identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly or because decisions were pending. The Republican White House has not opened formal negotiations with the Democratic-controlled Congress. But some senior administration officials — including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and U.N. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad — have been quietly talking with lawmakers about how to adjust policy in the months ahead. Among other ideas, they have discussed whether the United States should advocate a sharply decentralized Iraq, a notion that has seen a resurgence on Capitol Hill."
The Washington Post runs Part Two of its four-part look at Dick Cheney’s vice presidency. Today’s piece examines Cheney’s role in crafting the Administration interrogation policies. “The vice president's office played a central role in shattering limits on coercion in U.S. custody, commissioning and defending legal opinions that the Bush administration has since portrayed as the initiatives, months later, of lower-ranking officials."
Here’s Part One.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Obama strayed from the stump speech today, unveiling a “five-step” plan to end what he called the emergence of a "second Gilded Age in America" in a Manchester, N.H. speech centered on government reform.His plan: A permanent “doorstop” on lobbyists; End no-bid contracts; Ban lobbyist gifts; Pick an administration not based on partisan politics; Return government to the people.
Obama set up the plan by blasting the Bush Administration for what he called Industrial Revolution-era-like big business and corruption and compared himself to Teddy Roosevelt. Speaking to an audience in the cafeteria at New Hampshire's Community Technology College, Obama received polite applause -- a reaction quite different from the usual loud cheers at his rallies and town hall meetings.
"We need a president who sees government not as a tool to enrich well-connected friends and high-priced lobbyists, but as the defender of fairness and opportunity for every American," Obama said. "That's what this country has always been about, and that's the kind of President I intend to be." CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Chuck Todd
***UPDATE***Activists are calling for Giuliani to take Alan Placa off the payroll. Giuliani says he'll do no such thing and believes his long-time friend and priest has been "unjustly accused" of molesting three boys and covering up the molestations of about 60 others.
''There's ample evidence showing that Placa consistently protected predators, shrewdly deceived victims, and covered up horrific clergy sex crimes,'' said David Clohessy, national director of the Survivors Network of those Abused by Priests, in a statement, the AP reported.
Giuliani Partners spokeswoman Sunny Mindel told the AP Giuliani is standing by his childhood friend.
''The former mayor believes that Alan Placa has been unjustly accused,'' she said.
*******Has Giuliani's personal loyalty gotten him another skeleton for the press to go chasing after? Salon details Giuliani keeping a priest -- who is a life-long friend -- on the payroll of his consulting firm despite being accused of covering up more than 60 incidents of molestation and being involved in some cases.
Monsignor Alan Placa was suspended by his diocese and that “a 2003 Suffolk County, N.Y., grand jury report that accuses Placa of sexually abusing children, as well as helping cover up the sexual abuse of children by other priests,” Salon writes.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The
AP is out with their own version of the Edwards-using-his-poverty-center-for-political-gain story. Did the AP catch up to the
NYTimes reporting this fast or was this simply an example of two different news organizations persuing the same story at the same time. The two stories read quite differently hinting that both news organizations were working on this story at the same time. Neither one of them is a positive for Edwards and, frankly, the AP hit might be worse since it will likely to get picked up in a slew of smaller papers tomorrow. In fact the AP story hints at a potential FEC investigation.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The Clinton campaign announced today the endorsement of some key Arkansas Democrats in anticipation of her attendance at the state party's Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner tomorrow night. The most noteworthy is Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor, who is up for re-election in 2008 and would potentially share the ballot with Clinton should she become the Democratic nominee.
While some folks might not think it's a big deal that Clinton got the support of an Arkansas Democrat, realize that not every Arkansas Democrat believes Clinton will be an asset leading the ticket in the state. A few have expressed that nervousness to me privately. So Pryor doing this so early is something the Clinton folks can tout to other Southern and border state Democrats who are somehow nervous about Clinton's electability. Arkansas Democratic governor, Mike Beebe, has not endorsed any candidate.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Per the Atlantic's Ambinder, Romney's director of operations, Jay Garrity, has taken leave from the campaign. This comes a day after the New Hampshire Attorney General's office opened up an investigation of Garrity's involvement into a "traffic stop" of a New York Times reporter and another investigation into an alleged phone call made by Garrity identifying himself on a message machine as "Trooper Garrity" of the Massachusetts state police.
From NBC's Pete Williams
The governor of Wyoming has appointed a Casper doctor, John Barrasso [buh-RASS-oh], to serve as US senator until the 2008 election. He was appointed this morning to take the seat vacated by the death earlier this month of Craig Thomas. Under state law, Governor Dave Freudenthal picked Barrasso from among three Republicans chosen by the state party central committee.
Barrasso, 54, is an orthopedic surgeon, originally from Pennsylvania. He's midway through his second term in the state senate, first elected in 2002. He served the state party in a variety of capacities, including as its treasurer.
He's a 1974 graduate of Georgetown University, and he earned his MD at Georgetown in 1978. Shortly after graduation, he moved to Wyoming and established his medical practice there.
He's divorced and has two children, a son in college and a daughter who just graduated from high school.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Hip hop and club beats with
Obama laying out his healthcare plan and calling for troops to come home. Is that what you want to ring across the office when you forget to turn your phone on vibrate? The Obama campaign sure hopes so. Check out the new, we’re not kidding,
Obama campaign ring tones.
There’s “Letter to Obama” with lyrics, “Go, Go, Go – Obama, Obama.” It stops just short of telling him it’s his birthday.
There’s “2004 DNC Speech Hip Hop,” “On Healthcare,” the clubby “End the War,” and “2002 Speech Remix” -- mixed between beats and Casio keyboard cymbals is Obama saying, “What I do oppose -- is a dumb war.”
And there’s a little something for everyone with “2004 DNC Speech Alternative” and “2004 DNC Speech Rock.”
And per Jon Stewart, check out Obama’s, er, Barack-in,’ campaign bus.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Next week,
Fred Thompson hits the road with stops in Tennessee, South Carolina and New Hampshire. The South Carolina and New Hampshire visits are sponsored by the GOP state parties. But advisors say nothing is on Thompson's calendar beyond next week. Aides say Thompson will be on the trail for two and a half days and "he'll get out a bit." They acknowledge he hasn’t been to the two early primary states much because "until now he hasn't had to."
His objective is to introduce himself to voters, meet the grassroots types and "get the message out." As of this writing, there are no Fred fund-raisers on this round.
Thompson is expected to deliver his stump speech which is still undergoing "tweaks." The message themes include: government competency, cutting taxes, "doing the right thing in Iraq" and "looking at the world in a different way." Advisors say the speech was written by Thompson since he has no official speechwriters in the fold. He was given some "structure" help by advisors who do have some writing background.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Is He Real Or Is He Memorex? A day after making his earmark requests public, Obama this morning gives a speech on government reform in Manchester, NH -- the same place where Clinton gave her speech on the topic back in April. Since filing his paperwork to form an exploratory committee, Obama has presented himself as a different kind of politician who practices a different kind of politics. But will this be voters’ dominant image of Obama come January 2008? Or will it be one shaped more by (Clinton campaign?) reminders of Rezko, intercepted oppo documents, and a new 527 group (see below)? The answer for Obama, even as he trails Clinton in the national polls, could end up deciding his fate in the early nominating contests.
*** Start Spreading The News: So Edwards goes to New York to give a speech on the “Two Americas” and his vision for “One America,” and what does he get in return? A front-page New York Times story on how the anti-poverty, non-profit organization he created after 2004 mainly benefited himself and his political profile. The piece is not very helpful to Edwards in that he's desperately trying to stay competitive on the fundraising front with Clinton and Obama. And the Times, more than any other publication, has major reach in the Dem donor world. By the way, just noticing, but by our count it’s the second time in the last two weeks the Times has run a front-page investigation into one of Clinton’s rivals.
*** Romney 911: Just how bizarre is this story that Romney’s staff may have made an illegal traffic stop of New York Times reporter Mark Leibovich? It gets another day of play in the news. And apparently there are not one -- but TWO investigations (one related, one unrelated) -- into the security staffer who pulled over Leibovich.
*** Non-Executive Privilege: So, apparently, Cheney is not that interested in fixing his own poll ratings. The news that his office is not an entity within the executive branch seems to have collectively outraged the media. This new revelation is likely to become fodder for Democrats to hit the Administration again on secrecy.
*** On The Trail: Clinton speaks at the National Conference of US Mayors in Los Angeles; Huckabee has a slew of events in South Carolina; Richardson makes three stops in Iowa; and Romney speaks to the Officers Convention of the Montana Republican Party before heading to Idaho. Also the wives are mobilized… Michelle Obama makes two stops in Iowa; Barbara Richardson attends a memorial service for the fallen firefighters in South Carolina; and Elizabeth Kucinich moderates a panel at Hiram College in Ohio.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 4 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 50 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 72 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 120 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 137 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 148 days
Countdown to Iowa: 216 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 227 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 501 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 578 days
CLINTON:
As predicted, columnists are using the Sopranos spoof to do some
Clinton analysis. Here's Peggy Noonan: "So, the Sopranos spoof wasn't bringing up That Which Must Not Be Said. It was saying it and getting rid of it. (A piquant aspect: The bad guy in the video who eyeballs Mrs. Clinton really ‘is’ a mobster, the actor who played Johnny Sack in ‘The Sopranos.’ The Clintons' enemies are the real gangsters!)”Apparently, Stevie Van Zandt, a.k.a. Silvio,
turned down the Johnny Sacks part in the Sopranos spoof because he’s supporting Obama. Van Zandt amazingly is now more known for his role in the Sopranos than as a member of Bruce Springsteen's band. What a country!
Bill is taking a hands-off approach, he says. “‘I don't expect to do a lot of this this year and I don't think it's helpful,’ the former President said, referring to an upcoming campaign trip in Iowa in which he will accompany her. ‘I want people to get to know Hillary.’”
DODD: Like a bridge over troubled campaigns... Paul Simon is going to campaign with Chris Dodd for two days in July in Iowa.
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK:Brownback said in Iowa that if he’s elected president he will appoint a Supreme Court justice who will overturn Roe v. Wade. “We can get it done," Brownback said. "We're one justice away.”
GIULIANI:
Here's an "ouch" from
Time's Von Drehle, who writes: "How many alleged criminals can a law-and-order candidate be associated with before it starts to hurt?" That's the question facing Giuliani following the drug charges brought up against his ex-South Carolina campaign chair.
Bloomberg -- again, the news organization, not the potential candidate -- examines Giuliani's attempts to court Wall Street and notes how Giuliani "rarely mentions" his early corporate crime-fighting days that targeted Wall Street types. “‘One of the reasons he doesn't call attention to the past is that he's been in a political campaign mode for many years now, and he has drawn support from among hedge funds and investment-banking firms, and some of the very places he used to investigate,' said Chuck Gabriel, a longtime political strategist for institutional investors.”
CONTINUED >>
Here's something that's pretty hard for many to believe. Ralph Nader says he doesn't WANT to run for president, but may HAVE to. Nader said he would not do it "if Jim Hightower, the former agriculture commissioner of Texas and radio personality, or others on a list of relatively obscure people would run instead. Nader said he felt compelled to run because he wanted to establish ballot access for ‘all kinds of third-party candidates.’ And he said he wanted to train ‘the next generation’ of progressive activists.
The New York Daily News says that Bloomberg “is expected to survey the field after the mass of primaries on Feb. 5, dubbed ‘Tsunami Tuesday.’” More: “‘When you're a poker player and someone sits down at the table with that much cash, he has to be regarded as a serious player,’ said pollster Andrew Smith of the University of New Hampshire's Survey Center.”
The first major Dem we could find to take a shot at Bloomberg (every other Dem has sort of praised him for leaving the GOP) is Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. “‘Mr. Bloomberg, whom I don’t know real well — I’ve met him a few times — kind of reminds me of the little rich kid that if he can’t have it his way he’s going to take his little balls and go home,’ Harkin said in a conference call with Iowa media.”
NBC’s Ken Strickland says it should come as no surprise to anyone that the Senate is in a procedural morass, with talk that it will be working this weekend to try to finish up some big legislation before the July 4th recess (which is the week of July 2nd.) There was an expectation that the immigration bill would be brought back to the floor this week, but obviously that's not happening.
Because Senate rules allow for opponents of legislation to jam up the process, as is the case here, timing is hard to nail down. That said, here's the collective best guidance we have: The immigration bill won't come back on the floor until next week, Monday or Tuesday. With controversial amendments still in play, it's hard to predict what the final bill will look like OR if the final immigration bill will even pass.
The
Boston Globe's Lehigh attempts to print a virtual Iraq debate between John McCain and Joe Biden. He does not declare a winner, but simply highlights the two candidates who have the most detailed stances on the issue.
Mike Viqueira reports that the vice president’s office claims that as far as document security guidelines set forth by law are concerned, it’s not an "entity within the executive branch." So says Rep. Henry Waxman (D), who in the course of an investigation into government record keeping has found that Cheney's office has stiffed the National Archives when it comes around to inspect record-keeping procedures.
The Los Angeles Times: "For the last four years, Vice President Dick Cheney has made the controversial claim that his office is not fully part of the Bush administration in order to exempt it from a presidential order regulating federal agencies' handling of classified national security information, officials said Thursday… Some legal scholars and government secrecy experts noted the irony in Cheney's stance that his office is not fully part of the executive branch, given his claims of executive privilege when refusing to provide information requested by Congress."
The New York Times adds that when the National Archives unit that monitors classification in the executive branch objected [to Cheney’s resistance of oversight], the vice president’s office suggested abolishing the oversight unit, according to documents released yesterday by” Waxman.
From NBC's Mark Murray
This morning,
Edwards adviser Joe Trippi sent out this email fundraising solicitation: "This is it -- with 10 days left in the second quarter, we're about two-thirds of the way towards our goal of raising $9 million -- double what we raised at this time in the 2004 race."Our immediate reaction: $9 million? With
Clinton and
Obama once again poised to raise well over $20 million for the quarter, will a $9 million keep Edwards within striking distance of the two other Democratic front-runners? (Edwards raised more than $14 million in the first fundraising quarter.)
An Edwards campaign source tells First Read that the more important goal in that Trippi email is the $40 million the campaign hopes to raise before the Iowa caucuses, more than double what Edwards raised before the 2004 caucuses. If the campaign raises that $40 amount, it believes it will have more than enough to compete in the first four nominating contests (Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina). "We're not running the types of campaigns that Barack and Hillary are running," the source says. "They are celebrities."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Last week, our NBC/WSJ poll showed President Bush at his lowest approval rating since taking office -- 29 percent. It just got lower. A Newsweek poll out today shows that just 26 percent of all Americans – only about one in four -- approves of the job Bush is doing; 65 percent disapprove, including a third of all Republicans. The margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 4 percent
The only president to have ever gotten a lower approval rating was Richard Nixon, who fell to 23 percent in January 1974 -- seven months before he resigned over Watergate. In 1979, Jimmy Carter’s approval rating hit 28 percent.
And it’s not just Iraq that’s weighing Bush down. Americans overwhelmingly disapprove of his handling of several domestic issues and half even disapprove of his handling of terrorism.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
In a press conference on the Clinton Foundation's expanded role in Latin American economic development,
Bill Clinton commented on his part in his wife’s “Sopranos” spoof video earlier today, saying he had no part in the conception of the idea. “I had a lot of fun doing it, but I didn’t have anything to do with thinking it up,” he said, adding, “I just got my lines and played my part, which is kind of what I do in politics these days.”
Clinton went on to speak about the presidential campaign, saying that he’s enjoyed the time he’s spent on the campaign trail with Hillary, but that he doesn’t foresee playing a big role this year. “I want people to get to know Hillary,” he said.
He was also asked about the prospect of a presidential run by Mike Bloomberg. Although he refused to comment on a potential independent run by the New York mayor, he did -- as his wife did yesterday -- applaud Bloomberg for leaving the Republican party, saying it showed “good judgment on his part." But he added, “I already got a candidate in that race.”
From NBC's Carly Zakin
We've counted up the earmark requests on Obama's Web site, and they add up to 113 requests totaling $494,266,475.
***Update*** Well, math has never actually been our strong suit -- especially when adding with a computer calculator. And after hearing back from Obama's Senate office (and crunching our numbers again) we were a bit off. Obama's total earmark requests (when teamed up with other senators) is $399,766,475. The price tag for his solo earmark requests is $321,766,475.
From NBC's Mark Murray
On the eve of his speech on good government in New Hampshire,
Obama today has put up a list on his
Senate Web site of all the proposed earmarks (more than a hundred by our count) he has requested for this year's appropriations as a way to inject more transparency in government. As the
Chicago Tribune wrote earlier this morning, Obama is the first presidential candidate to do this.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Obama's campaign is now challenging the other presidential candidates to also list their earmarks. "As a matter of transparency and good government, Obama thinks it's important that voters know who their candidates are, what their sources of income are, and whether they have any potential conflicts," spokesman Bill Burton says. "We would hope that other candidates follow suit in disclosing their earmarks as well."
This isn't the first time that earmark challenges have come up in the presidential contest. Last week, McCain held a press conference to lambaste Hillary Clinton for larding a defense appropriations bill with pork. "We can't do this earmarking and pork-barreling if we ever are going to be careful and serious stewards of the taxpayers' dollars," McCain said.
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
On the campaign trail,
John McCain can often end up becoming a punching bag for questioners unloading frustrations about his two most unpopular stances -- on immigration and Iraq. On those issues, the embattled senator is often forced to demure, to tweak, or to soften the edge that won him a maverick image during his rollicking 2000 run. But when questioners give him a little bit of flexibility on non-lightning-rod issues, the self-described "Happy Warrior" comes out swinging.
A complaint about the inside-the-Beltway status quo? "I was not elected Miss Congeniality in the United States Senate
again this year," McCain bemoans sarcastically.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Tim Russert
In the same 48-hour period Michael Bloomberg was trying to tamp down presidential speculation, he was reaching out to well-known political figures, including Nancy Reagan. On Tuesday, Bloomberg had lunch with Reagan at the Bel Air Hotel while he was in California. Mrs. Reagan has already been fairly active in the presidential game this year. She was the host of the first GOP presidential debate, held in early May.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Some Heart Bloomberg, Others Will Hate Him: The Bloomberg boomlet is in full swing today. Editorial writers are predisposed to love anyone or anything that represents the word "bipartisanship." So the op-ed pages are full of praise for the mayor many of these editorial writers don't even know simply because he's uttered that magic word "bipartisanship." The fallout for Giuliani and Clinton is covered in more detail today. In particularly, the Giuliani-Bloomberg rivalry is one that is already tabloid fodder. But Clinton won't escape from this New York story either. Bloomberg and Clinton share many of the same local supporters who appear to be divided already. Check out Ed Koch's comments.
*** Rise Of The Independents?
Another independent -- Joe Lieberman, whom Bloomberg campaigned for last year -- holds a fundraiser in DC tonight for moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R), who likely will face a tough re-election fight next year. To poke their nemesis Lieberman in the eye, liberal MoveOn yesterday issued a press release stating that its members had raised $350,000 for likely Collins opponent Tom Allen (D), freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy, and MoveOn’s Iraq campaign. With Bloomberg’s possible presidential candidacy, was Lieberman’s win as an independent last year a sign of things to come? Or, if Collins loses and Bloomberg doesn’t run (or does and loses), will he find himself even more isolated come November 5, 2008?
*** Party Blood Thicker Than Water:
Speaking of 2008 Senate races, President Bush heads to Alabama today to raise money for one of the biggest critics of the Senate immigration bill he supports: GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions. One senator quoted Bush as saying to Sessions when he traveled up to Capitol Hill to revive the immigration bill, "Don't worry, I'll still go to your fundraiser. We disagree about this but we are friends." Yet is Bush’s fundraiser for Session a sign that he isn’t interested in twisting GOP arms too much to get the legislation to his desk? Before the fundraiser, Bush makes remarks on energy in Alabama.
*** Another Mormon Story: The Boston Globe today writes Romney’s political opponents are beginning to become more vocal about his religion. Is it time for that JFK-esque speech? The Globe notes three of Romney's foes (McCain, Brownback, and Giuliani) now have had supporters engage in anti-Mormon behavior.
*** Slick Hillary? How good is Clinton getting at avoiding controversial stances? So good that AP's Ron Fournier -- who has covered the Clintons longer than any national reporter in the country -- is dubbing her "Slick Hillary." Fournier uses examples from her remarks in DC this week, especially at the AFSCME forum, where he notes she left wiggle room on a number of issues.
*** On The Trail: Brownback hits eight more towns in Iowa; Clinton will be in DC and Detroit; Edwards supports Smithfield, NC workers' efforts to organize, and then speaks on middle-class debt at Cooper Union in New York City; Gilmore raises money in Atlanta; Giuliani speaks to supporters in Florida; Huckabee makes fundraising calls in Arkansas; Obama is in DC; and Richardson participates in an AFL-CIO convention town hall meeting in Phoenix and then raises money there.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 5 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 51 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 73 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 121 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 138 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 149 days
Countdown to Iowa: 217 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 228 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 502 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 579 days
The
New York Times says the potential Bloomberg '08 candidacy has been two years in the planning. "They collected technical data on the requirements to put Mr. Bloomberg on the ballot in 50 states either as a third party or an independent candidate. Mr. Bloomberg went to Washington for a round of meetings with opinion leaders and traveled the country giving political speeches, including two this week in California." Here's another key graph: "Even if Mr. Bloomberg in the end does not run, he is now assured of a platform to speak out on national issues and the country’s political climate, a stage that would fortify him as he enters what is normally the lame-duck portion of his term."
The Times also wonders whether Bloomberg can both run for president and run Gotham. "But if the mayor’s tentative tiptoeing into a national campaign accelerates into a marathon, inevitably the question of whether he can run for president and effectively manage the city simultaneously will arise. Can he avoid diminishing the legacy he is still constructing because he will be distracted by a national campaign?"
The Washington Post on Bloomberg’s press conference yesterday: “What he did not do is violate Rule No. 1 for the professional non-candidate which is never, under any circumstances, answer the question ‘Are you running for president?’… To answer the question would be to reveal the secret behind the magic trick -- the ‘will-he-or-won't-he?’ that captivates the public, frustrates the media and provides the practitioner national attention without any of the fuss of actually being a candidate.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
No national reporter may know the Clintons better than the
AP's Ron Fournier, and that's why his "Slick Hillary" lead today has to hurt the folks in Rosslyn. Fournier notes that her answers this week in front of AFSCME, where she ducked answering many questions were reminiscent of her husband, "Slick Willy." "Former President Clinton earned the nickname ‘Slick Willy’ for his mastery in the political arts of ducking and dodging. He had a knack for convincing people on both sides of an issue that he agreed with them. His wife may not be as smooth, but Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is doing a passable impression of the ever-parsing former president."
The Washington Post's Lois Romano profiles the women who run Hillaryland. "Once seen as a tight little sorority, today the group -- happily self-described as ‘Hillaryland’-- is at the center of a front-running presidential campaign. Never have so many women operated at such a high level in one campaign, working with a discipline and a loyalty and a legendary secrecy rarely seen at this level of American politics. Older and tougher, they have formed a closely knit Praetorian Guard around Clinton that plots strategy, develops message and clamps down on leaks. But their extraordinary protectiveness also contributes to an ongoing perception of insularity around the candidate and the campaign."
Another Washington Post piece also observes that she wasn’t booed as much at the “Take Back America” confab as she was a year ago. "Whatever her motives, Clinton's moves on the war have improved her political prospects in Iowa and New Hampshire. As she has emphatically called for troops to be withdrawn, a stance Edwards had adopted earlier, he has had to make more subtle points to show the distinctions between their records. And on a recent trip to Iowa, only one voter asked Clinton about her position on the war. Of course, resistance to her remains."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The most intriguing subplot of this week's Bloomberg boomlet is the spotlight that's been put on the
rivalry between Giuliani and Bloomberg. For some Giuliani partisans, this is the ultimate betrayal. After all, it was Giuliani's post-9/11 popularity that got Bloomberg elected in '01. He was down double digits to the leading Dems for mayor on Sept. 10th. The
New York Daily News’ cover: “It’s gonna get ugly!” with photos of Bloomberg and Giuliani looking both annoyed and poised for a fight.
The
New York Times went through the National Archives and found some letters written by Giuliani and note a recurring theme in those letters: "loyalty."
In his fourth campaign stop in Iowa, Giuliani pledged to cut federal spending and federal jobs by half in eight to 10 years. The Rocky Mountain News adds, "Tough questions drowned out part of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's message during a pop-in visit here on Wednesday. The man some call ‘America's Mayor’ made a rare campaign stop at a Des Moines hotel so he could tout his ‘commitment’ to being a fiscal conservative. But after a quick speech, he got sidetracked at a news conference defending his decision to quit the Iraq Study Group." CONTINUED >>
Bloomberg -- the news outlet, not the potential presidential candidate -- has this story: “The new defense secretary arrived at a moment of crisis with the war at a stalemate, public support tumbling and the president groping for a new strategy. Within a few months, he had replaced the top generals, imposed his will on those remaining and persuaded the president that the only exit from the bloody conflict was disengagement. Robert Gates in 2007? No, Clark Clifford in 1968.”
More: “Just as Clifford convinced President Lyndon Johnson of the need to change course at the height of the Vietnam War, some officials and military and foreign-policy experts say, Defense Secretary Gates may be gearing up to persuade President George W. Bush George W. Bush to move toward a drawdown in Iraq.”
In remarks prepared for a congressional hearing before a House Judiciary subcommittee today, outgoing Deputy Attorney General Paul McNulty says when he testified earlier about the firings of US attorneys, he did so "truthfully, providing the facts as I knew them at the time," NBC’s Pete Williams reports. He told the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier this year that he was not aware of any but a very token role played by the White House in the firings. It subsequently became clear that the White House was much more involved.
"We have learned that my knowledge at the time ... was in some respects incomplete," McNulty says in his prepared testimony. But he says he doesn't think anyone in the Justice Department set out to purposely mislead him. McNulty said last month that he intends to step down later this summer.
The Washington Post reminds us that former DOJ aide Monica Goodling “accused McNulty of providing inaccurate testimony to Congress and of seeking to obscure the White House's role in carrying them out. Gonzales, after first playing down his role, also named McNulty as the Justice aide most responsible for the dismissals.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At a press conference in Iowa, Giuliani answered questions on his decision to sit on the Iraq Study Group Commission, his campaign's decision to pull out of the Ames straw poll, his (now former) SC campaign chairman being indicted on cocaine trafficking charges and competing with Clinton for the mafia vote (sort of).
Iraq Study Group Commission "a mistake"
Giuliani said he made a mistake by ever joining the Iraq Study Group Commission. "It was a mistake," Giuliani said, "because I had an active ... political career that could interfere with the way in which the recommendations of the commission would be viewed. Suppose the report came out, and I was on the commission, then I did a dissenting opinion or people thought was skewed in some way to help me. It just made no sense. It was not the right thing to do."
He also said, "The main reason for it was, it didn't seem I would really be able to keep the thing focused on a bipartisan non-political resolution."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Bush today vetoed the stem-cell research bill and said in a news conference afterward:
"I made it clear to Congress and to the American people that I will not allow our nation to cross this moral line. Last year, Congress passed a similar bill -- I kept my promise by vetoing it. And today I'm keeping my word again: I am vetoing the bill that Congress has sent."
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Lauren Appelbaum, and Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani and Tony Snow reacted today to Bloomberg’s GOP defection. Giuliani was deferential. Snow, on behalf of the White House was, well, a bit more snarky.
“I am disappointed he left the Republican Party,” Giuliani said.
The White House has largely stayed away from the topic, but Snow offered this at the on-camera briefing: “Let me put it this way,” Snow said, “he ran as a Republican, I believe he took Republican money."
On Bloomberg’s potential White House bid, Giuliani was asked if he feels betrayed by his “friend.” (We didn’t hear “no.”)
“I worked very hard to get Mike elected for my reasons,” Giuliani said, “and my reasons were to preserve the things I thought were so important about the turnaround of new York City…. I have no objection to him. Everybody has to make his own decisions about this. Because I endorse somebody, they don't owe anything to me, I don't owe anything to them."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Politico and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg conducted a straw poll among the liberal activists attending the Campaign for America's Future "Take Back America" conference.
Obama came out on top with 29% of the vote, followed by
Edwards at 26%, and
Clinton at 17%.
Richardson was fourth with 9%, and
Al Gore got 8% as a write-in candidate (his name wasn't listed on the ballot).
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At his press conference today, reporters asked
Bloomberg why he changed his party affiliation if he has no intention of running for president. He replied that by being an independent, he has more flexibility in pushing his positions on issues like gun control on city streets. He called for people to value issues, not party politics. "My perception is that government at all levels is becoming more partisan rather than less," Bloomberg said.
At the 3-1-1 Call Center in Manhattan, numerous crews arrived to cover what was billed as an "announcement." Bloomberg happily told the crowd that 3-1-1 logged its 50-millionth call earlier this morning.
Reporters attempted to push Bloomberg to comment on a race between himself and other presidential candidates by asking him if 3-1-1 should be implemented on the national level, and if he could implement it better nationally than Hillary Clinton could. Bloomberg dodged the trap, stating that he personally had no intention of implementing 3-1-1 on a national level and that Sen. Clinton is "a very good Senator" who "deals at a different level than fixing pot holes."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
…but I might change my mind.
Some have interpreted Michael Bloomberg’s comments at a speech today as him signaling that he is not running for president. But keep these two things in mind:
1. He didn't give a Sherman-esque statement ruling out a potetential White House bid. (In the 1880s, William Tecumseh Sherman famously said, "If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve.")
Bloomberg today said: "I have said that my intention is to be mayor for the next 925 days and probably about 10 hours, whatever's left, 11 hours, and that is my intention." Saying it's his INTENTION gives him lots of wiggle room.
Even saying as he did "I'm not running for president, and I'm going to be mayor for the next 925 days" doesn't completely rule out a run.
2. People can change their minds. Just look at Barack Obama. Here's what he said on “Meet the Press” in November 2004:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Although she's more popular with the Left than the comparatively hawkish Senator Clinton, Speaker
Nancy Pelosi was also heckled at the "Take Back America" conference in DC this morning, where Clinton also faced boos from some anti-war protestors. As she was listing her legislative priorities, an audience member interrupted, "And bring the troops home!" She responded to the resulting crescendo of hisses from the crowd with a smile. "I always say that the best preparation for combat is combat," she said, "So go for it!"
The static from the anti-war crowd was previewed by interruptions during remarks by Rep.
Jack Murtha, who introduced the Speaker. Murtha even briefly argued from the dais with a protestor below. An audience member objected to the congressman's assertion that Pelosi has shepherded an anti-war agenda in the House, shouting, "No, she hasn't!" Eyes rolling, Murtha responded. "Yes, she has."
Closing her remarks, Pelosi acknowledged the brewing civil war within the Democratic Party but appealed for unity. "We have the will of the American people to end this war... Instead of fighting us, which is your right to do, let's all work together to convince the American people that this is possible. End the war and bring the troops home."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
If you notice in the
new Romney ad -- where he touts himself a fiscal conservative who will “get taxes down” -- he not so inconspicuously speaks in front of logos for the Club for Growth. Club for Growth is a conservative group, which aggressively pushes its agenda. It has played a prominent role in helping elect fiscal conservatives and it hasn't been shy about attacking -- and many would argue hurt -- Republicans with whom they don’t wholly agree.
The group is well aware of Romney using their background. In fact, the club is happy about it, but insists it has not endorsed any presidential candidate yet.
“We’re enjoying it,” said Nachama Soloveichik, a club spokeswoman. “I think it speaks to our credibility on fiscal issues…. We’re proud of what we do. We agree there should be lower taxes. We agree that we play an important role in economic conservatism.”
The Club for Growth has not put out what they call a “white paper” -- an evaluation of the candidates’ fiscal conservative credentials -- on Romney yet. And this nod to the group by the former Massachusetts governor, Soloveichik said, won't ultimately affect whether or not the club decides to endorse him.
“It doesn’t butter us up," she said. "It’s nice, but it’s not going to change our white paper or our analysis of him.”
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A small group of House Republicans will head down to the White House today and present the president with a list of signatures that they say guarantees that his vetoes on spending bills cannot be overridden, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. The White House has threatened a veto of appropriations that exceed the president's requests. Already, the House has passed a bill funding Homeland Security that is $2.1 billion over the Administration's figure. Outgoing OMB chief Rob Portman has said that the president will veto the measure.
Congressional Republicans are becoming born-again fiscal conservatives these days, after “bridges to nowhere” and rising levels of spending left some their core supporters disillusioned over the past several years. The idea is to rediscover their roots and rally around the cause of earmark reform and holding the line on spending and taxes.
Today, Viq says, they will hand the president a petition -- circulated by conservatives and signed by 147 House members -- that pledges to vote against any override attempts that Democrats put forward. That number represents one-third of the House, just enough to ensure that any override would fail. Democrats are in the process of deciding on a strategy to deal with the veto threats.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** A Boon For The Democrats? New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg capped off a VERY busy political day yesterday by filing paperwork changing his voting status from Republican to unaffiliated. Why now? Bloomberg's move now means every national poll will begin including him in three-way match-ups, and that in and of itself forces the Beltway chattering class to begin assessing the "who does he hurt" between now and the end of the primary season. And it gives him an opportunity to begin actually exploring a run by traveling to states that don't touch oceans. Looking at voting patterns and the strength of both parties' bases, a true three-way race may help the Democrats more than the Republicans. Why? It’s simple -- the South. The irony of a Bloomberg candidacy is that it could make the Democrats more competitive in the South because their 35% base vote in the South is made up of die-hard Democrats.
*** Short-Term Trouble for Rudy?
But that's for the long term. In the short term, the person hurt the most right now by a potential Bloomberg bid may be the guy most responsible for getting him elected mayor in the first place: Giuliani. Bloomberg's claims of successes in managing New York City are subtle jabs at Giuliani's two terms as mayor. Also, Bloomberg's interest means there will be more comparisons to Giuliani's days as mayor before 9/11, and that gets Giuliani off message a bit.
*** Un-Raveneling: Speaking of Rudy, we wondered if he was going to have a bad day yesterday after that Newsday piece (about his non-attendance on the Iraq Study Group) and the news of Bernie Kerik’s disappointment about the distance between him and Giuliani (“I understand it, but inside it's killing me”). But we had no idea that in one day his campaign would lose top Iowa adviser Jim Nussle, who’s heading over to OMB, and also South Carolina state chairman Thomas Ravenel, who was indicted for cocaine distribution. The good news for the campaign: It all happened in just one day.
*** More Boos?
Already this morning, Clinton took her turn addressing the liberal “Take Back America” conference. At last year's conference, she received boos for her views on Iraq -- and she got them again this morning. NBC’s Carrie Dann reports that Clinton entered and exited the stage with applause. But when she launched into her Iraq bit, she was booed. She plugged the fact that she voted against the supplemental, but her line about how the troops have "done what they went to do" prompted a mix of boos and those trying to drown them out.
*** Other Speakers: As of this writing, Kucinich was set to follow Clinton at the “Take Back” confab. Also speaking today will be Speaker Nancy Pelosi (9:15am ET), DNC chair Howard Dean (1:30 pm), and Jesse Jackson. (Filmmaker Michael Moore was supposed to speak too, but NBC’s Dann reports that his plane was delayed and thus he won’t be addressing the group.) What’s more, at 3:00 pm, the Politico and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg will announce the presidential straw poll results from the liberal attendees.
*** “Once, Twice, Three Times A …”: Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, Bush today will issue the third veto of his presidency -- and second one on stem cells -- when he rejects the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act, which provides more federal financing for the science. Advisers say Bush will make remarks on his veto at 2:25 pm ET, but won’t actually veto the legislation in public. Meanwhile, congressional Democrats will hold a press conference this afternoon following the president’s veto announcement.
*** On The Trail: Brownback is back in Iowa, hitting six more towns; Giuliani speaks in Iowa, then raises money in New York City; McCain addresses the Florida Broadcasters in Palm Beach, then helps a county GOP committee raise money; Obama raises money in Ohio and Pittsburgh before heading back to DC; and Fred Thompson spends his final day across the pond in London.
*** And…: If you missed checking in with First Read during "Super Tuesday," you missed comprehensive coverage of the entire day in politics, from the AFSCME forum and the Take Back America conference to Fred Thompson's London appearance, Jim Nussle's new job, and so much more. Bottom line, bookmark First Read and check in often so you don't miss a thing.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 6 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 52 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 74 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 122 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 139 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 150 days
Countdown to Iowa: 218 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 229 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 503 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 580 days
The
New York Times says Bloomberg “announced Tuesday that he was dropping his Republican affiliation, a step that could clear the way for him to make an independent bid for the presidency. The announcement was released during a campaign-style swing through California, during which Mr. Bloomberg … used increasingly sharp language to criticize both parties in Washington as too timid to take on big problems and too locked into petty squabbling to work together.”
NBC’s Tim Russert reported this on Nightly News last night: "I just spoke to sources very close to Mayor Bloomberg and the strategy's quite simple. He is positioning himself for a potential -- potential, underscore potential -- independent run for the presidency. He will make a decision in early of 2008, depending on who the major parties nominate and the tone of the campaign. He believes the Democrats are tacking left; the Republicans are tacking right. There's a broad center available.”
More from Russert: “He's willing to spend $500 million of his own money. He's a multibillionaire, but he doesn’t want to run as a spoiler. He's well aware that Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992. He would only run if he could win, but he's very pragmatic… Remember in October of 2000, he was a Democrat, he became a Republican because he saw that nomination was easier to win.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post covers yesterday’s speeches at the “Take Back America” conference. “As the 2008 Democratic presidential candidates sought to woo liberal activists at two different conferences yesterday, former senator John Edwards (N.C.) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson both questioned the boldness of the other candidates in the race.”
The Boston Globe, writing about the AFSCME forum, says Democrats played to a union base yesterday. They promised “to champion the rights of workers to organize and punish companies that outsource jobs.”
CLINTON: The Sopranos video was a smash success in this respect: It was everywhere. From Entertainment Tonight to our own "Nightly News," the Sopranos spoof got plenty of coverage. The only negative comments the rollout of the Clinton campaign song is getting is the choice of the song. Writes Maureen Dowd: "It doesn’t bode well for the cultural health of the country that Hillary picked a song by Celine Dion, who combines the worst of Vegas and Canada." Also, the RNC screamed that Clinton was outsourcing her campaign song by picking the Canadian Dion.
Watch Clinton's Sopranos parody on YouTube CONTINUED >>
GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin wonders in today's New York Observer why conservative activists are looking for another Bush. "A track record of determined leadership, intellectual creativity, extemporaneous speaking skills and well-thought-out plans for the future should be minimal qualifications for the Presidency. Should conservatives reflect on the error of their previous choice, they might adopt criteria more meaningful than a willingness to genuflect to ideological convention. If not, the next chosen candidate will be as hapless as the last."
BROWNBACK: In Iowa yesterday, the Kansas senator discussed an expansive
“culture of life” policy, which “would include welfare reforms to encourage marriage among the poor and federal tracking of divorce rates.” GINGRICH: While Clinton's Sopranos parody is all the YouTube rage, don't miss Gingrich's stint as a spokesperson against the McCain-Kennedy immigration reform legislation. Gingrich appears in an ad -- only posted on
YouTube right now -- that says it was paid for by the conservative group, Citizens United.
CONTINUED >>
In addition to vetoing the embryonic stem-cell legislation, Bush “will issue an executive order intended to encourage scientific advances in regenerative medicine,” the New York Times says. “By pairing the veto with a new scientific initiative, the White House clearly hopes to blunt the inevitable criticism that Mr. Bush will face from researchers, advocates for patients and politicians, including many in his own party.”
The
Washington Post: “President Bush selected a veteran of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress” -- former Iowa Rep. Jim Nussle -- “to become the new head of the White House budget office after current Office of Management and Budget Director Rob Portman announced yesterday that he was stepping down.”
The paper adds: “Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) said in an interview that Nussle is not popular among Democrats, who view him as ‘an intense partisan more given to confrontation than cooperation.’ Conrad said ‘he's coming here with baggage’ and could have problems with his confirmation.”
In the special election in Georgia to replace the late Rep. Charlie Norwood (R), state Sen. Jim Whitehead finished with 44% of the vote, and an overwhelming lead, but faces a July 17th runoff because he did not achieve the 50% threshold. Republican Paul Broun and Democrat James Marlow finished second and third and both got just above 20%. As of this morning, the race between Broun and Marlow was too close to call -- separated by just 115 votes, less than 1%. Under state law, the third-place candidate can ask for a recount if separated by less than 1%.
And to replace late Sen. Craig Thomas (R) of Wyoming, the three names the state GOP is handing up to Gov. Dave Freudenthal are lawyer and former GOP state chair Tom Sansonetti, orthopaedic surgeon state Sen. John Barraso, and former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis. Freudenthal has until Sunday to make his pick.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Not yet a declared Republican presidential contender, Fred Thompson answered questions about the kind of president he might be and how he views world affairs -- not from Tennessee but near the river Thames. Thompson spoke today to London's Policy Exchange think tank.
His advisers say the event gave the former Tennessee senator a chance to polish his stump speech while also appearing engaged on international matters. Thompson, in his slow paced southern voice, offered his take on why he is not officially in the race, saying "If there is a bandwagon moving it's not too late for anybody to get on it, I assure you."
Thompson used the venue to display his foreign policy knowledge, and he talked tough on Iran, embracing the use of force if necessary. "When the president of Iran shares his nightmare visions before cheering crowds, those are not just the fanatic's version of an empty applause line. The only safe assumption is that he means it."
Showing his conservative card, Thompson tackled immigration, saying the current debate "leaves most of us uncomfortable" suggesting the government does not have the capability to actually deliver what's in the bill. Still more for conservatives, Thompson spoke at length about former Cheney chief of staff Scooter Libby, who is just weeks away from beginning a 30-month prison term for his perjury and obstruction felony conviction. Thompson, who has raised money for Libby's defense supports a presidential pardon, "I think it is a gross injustice and I think it should be rectified."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray, Jenny Anzelmo, and Carly Zakin
This afternoon,
Barack Obama and
John Edwards took their turns addressing the liberal activists at today's "Take Back America" conference, and each emphasized their central messages. For Obama, it's hope; for Edwards, it's honest leadership. Mentioning that cynical journalists tease him that he always talks about hope, Obama referred to his biography (his job as a community organizer, his service in politics): "I talk about hope because I've seen its power... I know that change is possible. I know that turning the page is possible. This isn't just the rhetoric of a campaign, it's been the cause of my life -- a cause I will work for and fight for every day as your president. It's not enough just to change parties in this election. If we hope to truly transform this country, we have to change our politics too. It's time to turn the page."
 |
|
Meanwhile, Edwards said, "No more pontificating. No more vacillating. No more triangulating. No more broken promises. No more pats on the head. No more we'll-get-around-to-it-next-time. No more taking half a loaf." He continued: "We need to be bold. We need to have backbone. We need courage."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".
In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.
On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each.
With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback).
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Lauren Appelbaum
As we reported earlier in First Read, Richardson called out Democratic rivals Clinton, Obama, Dodd, Biden, and Edwards for what he called their support of "loopholes" to keep troops in Iraq.
Talking to a couple thousand liberal activists at the “Take Back America” conference at the Washington Hilton, Richardson shifted to more forceful anti-war language on Iraq, calling for “zero troops”, “no residual troops” and even a pull out of embassy staff if it is not safe for them to remain.
Despite a slightly lopsided tie and a troublesome lack of preparation for a question on the White House e-mail controversy in a post-speech news conference, this was one of Richardson’s better appearances. He appeared confident and carefully moved toward separating himself from the rest of the field.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Pres. Bush's gain is Rudy Giuliani's loss. Former Iowa GOP Rep. Jim Nussle's decision to accept Bush's appointment as Budget Dir. means Giuliani loses his main Iowa sherpa. Nussle was always a good answer to the question: "Who's handling your Iowa campaign, mister mayor?" And the answer "Nussle" was usually enough to keep the "Rudy's got no organization in Iowa" griping at bay. But with Nussle gone, the answer of "Paul Pate" (the person who is Giuliani's state chair) won't be satisfactory to some Iowa observers. Giuliani heads to Iowa tomorrow to give a fiscal discipline speech (Nussle would be proud) but he also needs to get some bigger names on board to convince folks that he is, indeed, trying to "win" Iowa. Remember, Giuliani can "win" Iowa without coming in first, but he certainly has to play if he wants to make a second place showing a "win."
With Fred Thompson attempting to fire up a campaign and fighting for Iowa supporters, Giuliani's challenge in Iowa is only getting tougher. The next few months of insider angling in Iowa will tell us alot about Giuliani's chances.
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
Replacing Rob Portman with Jim Nussle is not going to be seen as an act of conciliation by the White House toward Hill Democrats.You could ask 100 random people on Capitol Hill their opinion of Rob Portman and likely not find one person who does not use a term like "respect," "bipartisan," "consensus seeker," etc. when judging the man. He is widely considered to be hard working, low key, and competent. When he was here representing his Cincinnati area district he was known to actually work with minority Democrats to get things done. That was rare.
Nussle, on the other hand, is seen by Democrats as more of a partisan. He first earned notice in the early 90s as the guy who spoke from the House floor with a paper bag over his head, an expression of his embarrassment to be part of a Congress beset by Democratic scandals surrounding the House Bank and post office.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
David Chase, eat your heart out? To unveil her new campaign song, Clinton replicates the final scene of the Sopranos complete with a cut to black just before choosing the song in a jukebox.
We know the suspense is killing you. For the next year and a half, the song we'll all identify with the Clinton campaign is apparently... "You and I" by Celine Dion. More than 200,000 voted for their choice in Clinton's online pick-her-song contest.
In the video, Journey plays on a jukebox, as Clinton sits in an empty diner booth scrolling through potential campaign songs. In walks husband Bill -- greeted at the table by a bowl of carrot sticks. "No onion rings?" he asks his wife, disappointedly. Daughter Chelsea struggles to parallel park.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per the
Edwards campaign, the senator will deliver these lines at the "Take Back America" conference. "For me it's simple: No more pontificating. No more vacillating. No more triangulating. No more broken promises. No more pats on the head. No more we'll-get-around-to-it-next-time. No more taking half a loaf."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Earlier this morning, candidate-in-waiting
Fred Thompson spoke at a policy luncheon in London. While my colleagues will have more details of what he said, one thing struck me: how well he handles "what's next" regarding Iraq. Thompson: "I don't know of a Plan B. .. But I do know that the political window is closing. How rapidly? I'm not sure." Thompson then went on to make a very passionate case for staying involved in the Mideast and he did it in a way that doesn't get specific with troop numbers, but talks about the downsides of leaving. To date, he seems to be the best of the GOPers in making the "stay in Iraq" case while also sounding like a change agent. The Republican who can best make the case for staying engaged in the Mideast but also sound like a change agent will be the nominee. Romney, Thompson and Giuliani are the best positioned to do it; McCain, less so, because he's more tied to Bush's Iraq policy.
Overall, Thompson did well in London today and showed that he'll be ready on the foreign policy issue front. Of course, this was an easy audience for him because none of these folks cares about his conservative credentials on issues like abortion and campaign finance reform.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
My friends at Hardball ask me to keep tabs on the AFSCME forum and share my extraneous thoughts as these folks were speaking. Here you go -- random thoughts from the morning so far. First off, what a great show. Forums are usually a bore but this one was fun to watch and Chris kept it moving. These candidates tried hard not to make news, but they certainly fed off the crowd which also kept the energy level up. Overall, it's a forum format other groups (both left and right) ought to copy. This works. Now, for some candidate-by-candidate chatter ... please forgive the stream of consciousness of it. Between morning conference call planning and "First Read," it was necessary to keep thoughts short and, well, all over the map:
Richardson: He is so much better in a forum format than a debate format. One of the surprises of this campaign has been his weakness at the debates. Today was a better day for him; he looked good and he sounded confident.
Kucinich: He has an amazing ability to not seem like he's in the same room as other folks on stage. He's very self-aware, almost too much so that it makes him seem somehow aloof. It's odd, I wish I were a better writer so that I could explain it better. Bottom line: He's more in line on the issues with the rank-n-file than anyone else on stage and yet, he's getting less traction this cycle than he did four years ago.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Jenny Anzelmo
Five of the Democratic presidential candidates just finished addressing AFSCME here in Washington, focusing on union-centric topics such as collective bargaining, health care, and trade. Moderator Chris Matthews also solicited responses on subjects from national security and immigration reform to Scooter Libby.
Although each candidate spoke about their pro-labor views and received enthusiastic responses from the nearly 2,000 person crowd, there were some differences in their messages for the union members. Richardson touted the creation of a federal 401(k) plan to ensure that workers aren't left without pension, while Kucinich said that he would forbid company mergers if protection of pension plans could not be guaranteed. While Kucinich went on to say he would cancel NAFTA, calling it a "race to the bottom for wages," Clinton took a more moderate approach -- acknowledging the flaws of the agreement but attributing the problem of outsourcing to other issues.
VIDEO: Sen. Clinton addresses issues such as universal health care and the job market at the AFSCME Forum.
Obama echoed Clinton's views on trade, saying, "We should want to make the lives of other people in other countries better because it's good for our security." But he decried the outsourcing of jobs to cheap labor markets like China's.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The
Obama campaign gave First Read a few excerpts of the speech the Illinois senator will give later today at the liberal "Take Back America" conference. Per these excerpts, Obama makes an ever-so-subtle jab at
Hillary Clinton, who has said that she would not have voted to authorize the Iraq war knowing what she knows now.
Obama will say: "I am proud that I stood up in 2002 and urged our leaders not to take us down this dangerous path. I've said it before and I'll say it again - this is a war that should've never been authorized and never been waged.
"So many of us knew this back then, even when it wasn't popular to say so. We knew back then this war was a mistake. We knew back then that it was dangerous diversion from the struggle against the terrorists who attacked us on September 11th. We knew back then that we could find ourselves in an occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences."
Perhaps Obama is trying to deliver the message that he does have the stomach to take on Clinton.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Forums Everywhere: If you visit a Washington DC hotel this morning, chances are you’ll bump into a Democratic presidential candidate -- or at least one of his/her supporters. At the Marriott Wardman Park, MSNBC’s Chris Matthews moderates a forum featuring Richardson (at 8:15 am), Kucinich (8:40 am), Clinton (9:05 am), Edwards (9:30 am), and Obama (9:55 am). Just a mile or two away, Richardson (at 9:00 am), Obama (noon), and Edwards (12:30 pm) address the gathering of liberal activists at the “Take Back America” conference at the Washington Hilton. Clinton was supposed to speak at that confab today, but it was moved back to Wednesday morning, which means she’ll talk an hour and a half before filmmaker Michael Moore does.
*** Super Tuesday: But if you’re not near one of these hotels, you can tune into MSNBC’s inaugural “Super Tuesday,” which will cover these forums and other political stories all day long. Then every other Tuesday leading into the 2008 elections, MSNBC will focus on the hottest political news of the week or the biggest news story of the day, which only enhances its status as TV's place for politics. Helping to anchor today’s Super Tuesday will be MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, NBC’s Chip Reid, MSNBC’s Amy Robach, NBC’s Tim Russert, NBC’s David Gregory, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, NBC’s Natalie Morales, and MSNBC’s Chris Jansing.
Click here for more on Super Tuesday
*** The Apology: The Obama campaign's tough oppo-research document on Clinton's ties to Indian-American donors has become a FIVE-day story -- after Obama yesterday called it “stupid” and “a screw-up on the part of our research team.” He also took responsibility for it and apologized. It was the second time in his campaign he's criticized his staff for butting heads with the Clinton folks (the first was during the Geffen scuffle). Some candidates just don't have the stomach to wage nasty and divisive campaigns, and in a perfect world, those people should be commended (high and mighty is better than low and petty). But those people usually don't win. Does anyone think that Clinton -- who won't apologize for her war vote -- would apologize for her campaign sending a document, to just a handful of reporters, that contained nothing but facts?
*** New Scrutiny For Rudy: What a difference a day makes. Yesterday, we highlighted a report about the lack of scrutiny Giuliani's opponents were giving to him versus the rest of the field. While that's still technically true, check out the Newsday report (below) claiming Giuliani quit the Iraq Study Group to make six-figure speeches. Or CNBC’s Larry Kudlow’s tough question to Giuliani yesterday. And don’t miss Bernie Kerik’s comments on Rudy. His GOP foes may not be dropping dimes, but the New York tabs -- that's another story.
*** Special Election Time: A special election takes place today in Georgia to replace late Rep. Charlie Norwood (R). With 10 candidates, it will be difficult to avoid a July 17th runoff (if no one gets 50%). GOP state Sen. Jim Whitehead and Democrat Jim Marlow are the favorites. Although this is a heavily GOP district, our friends at Hotline noted that if Marlow exceeds the 35% Dem performance there, it could be a bad sign for Republicans as we head into 2008. Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET.
*** And Then There Were Three: There are more than 30 candidates vying to replace late GOP Sen. Craig Thomas. And today, a 71-member central committee of the Wyoming Republican Party will vote to narrow the field to three. Under state law, the state GOP has to get the names to Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) by Wednesday. And Freudenthal then has five days to pick one of these three to be Thomas’ successor. He will likely make a decision by Sunday night.
*** On The Trail: With less than two weeks left until the end of the second quarter, the candidates are canvassing the country raising money -- Edwards in DC, Gilmore in Virginia and DC, Giuliani in Houston, Huckabee in Arkansas, McCain in Florida, Richardson in New York, and Romney in Michigan. Elsewhere, Biden speaks at a rally on Capitol Hill in support of the Employee Free Choice Act; Brownback continues to stump in Iowa; Clinton is the guest of honor at the Marine Corps "Sunset Parade" in DC; and Tommy Thompson is in Iowa.
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 7 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 53 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 75 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 123 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 140 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 151 days
Countdown to Iowa: 219 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 230 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 504 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 581 days
The Republican National Committee sent out this press release this morning: “Liberal Circus In Town! Democrat Leaders To Pander To Left-Wing ‘Take Back America’ Conference.”
CLINTON:
While it's no surprise Hillary and Bill Clinton are busy raising money before the end of this 2nd quarter, it's slightly surprising that surrogates -- like New York Senate colleague Chuck Schumer -- are
headlining fundraisers for her. The
AP notes that Bill Clinton will campaign with Hillary for the first time in Iowa on July 2-4, “seeking to boost her candidacy in a state where she trails in the polls.”
Clinton raised an estimated $1 million in New Jersey last night.
EDWARDS:
The
New York Times writes about Elizabeth Edwards on the trail with her husband in Iowa. “This past weekend was supposed to be Mr. Edwards’s big splash across Iowa — 14 communities in three days, a signal to Iowans and the political world that he indeed views victory in this state … as critical to his hopes of winning the Democratic presidential nomination. But even when it was not she who was talking, his wife was often the center of attention.”
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK:
He was in
Iowa yesterday, where he drew 35 at one stop and talked up his partition plan for Iraq. Brownback also called Romney yesterday to apologize for his campaign staffer’s email criticizing the Mormon Church, the
AP says. Romney accepted his rival’s apology, saying “‘I told him that was not a big matter to me. If I can’t stand the heat I shouldn’t be in the kitchen.’”
GIULIANI:
CNBC's Kudlow yesterday asked Giuliani an interesting (perhaps leading?) question regarding his campaign staff. He asked whether any of his Giuliani Partners' employees were working for the campaign. Giuliani, perhaps knowing where Kudlow was trying to go, said there were some employees "volunteering" time to the campaign.
NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily column about the significant decline in Giuliani's national poll standing. "The downward slope in his support levels look even sharper than his ascent had been earlier.”
CONTINUED >>
As our own Brian Williams found out last week, it doesn't take much to prod New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg to talk about national issues. Addressing Google employees (suddenly a must stop for 2008 candidates), Bloomberg
sounded like a potential candidate, saying similar things to this crowd that he said to Williams last week. "In unusually stark terms, Mr. Bloomberg expressed his frustration with the state of the nation, touching on campaign-style issues like the war in Iraq, immigration, education, health care and crime before a crowd" of more than 1,000 Google employees.
The New York Sun adds: "Bloomberg said the presidential candidates were exploiting the threat of terrorism, and failing to deliver solutions to problems such as illegal immigration, health care, and education." Do note that Bloomberg and the other Mr. Bipartisan -- Arnold Schwarzenegger -- today will “take part in a conference in Los Angeles warning that Washington is addicted to and paralyzed by partisanship. Messrs. Bloomberg and Schwarzenegger share the cover of Time magazine this week."
NBC’s Ken Strickland says that with two weeks remaining before the July 4th recess, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has drawn up an ambitious wish list of legislation to complete before the break. Chief among them is immigration reform. While Reid agreed to bring the bill back as early as this week, the bill's fate remains unknown. It's very likely the Senate will be working during at least part of this weekend in order to get everything done.
Besides immigration, the list also includes an energy bill, now being debated on the floor; the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for workers to unionize, but has essentially no chance of passage; and work on a defense bill, which would revive the Iraq debate with votes on Democratic amendments -- some of which set timelines for troop withdrawal.
Strick notes that Reid will try to finish energy bill by mid-week. Then, by Thursday at the earliest, they could start the debate and votes on immigration. Some of those votes will be on amendments -- that if passed -- could fracture the fragile coalition holding the bill together and result in its failure on final passage.
CONTINUED >>
The
AP writes: “E-mail records are missing for 51 of the 88 White House officials who had electronic message accounts with the Republican National Committee, the House Oversight Committee said Monday. The Bush administration may have committed “extensive” violations of a law requiring that certain records be preserved, the committee chairman, Representative Henry A. Waxman, Democrat of California, said.”
The Washington Post adds, “The Republican National Committee told the investigators that White House senior political adviser Karl Rove alone sent or received more than 140,000 e-mails between 2002 and 2007, more than half of which involved individuals using official ‘.gov’ e-mail accounts, a report from the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee said. The RNC said it still has copies of those e-mails.”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's political guru,
Tom Baxter, examines today’s special election to replace the late GOP Rep. Charlie Norwood and notes the results will indicate the potency of both immigration and Iraq. No one expects the Democrat to win, but what will his number be? How divided will the GOP be? Those are the tea leaves Baxter and others will be combing through.
From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Today,
McCain spoke to the United States Merchant Marine Academy's graduating class in Kings Point, NY. After delivering a commencement speech that was a mixture of pre-planned humor (“This is quite a privilege for someone who graduated fifth from the bottom in the United States Naval Academy Class of 1958”) and stump speech (“As you know, I had another career before politics. I was an officer in the U.S. Navy for 22 years…”), McCain was presented with a very practical and modern gift. The class gave him an engraved iPod filled with naval and maritime-themed songs -- to keep him company as he traveled across the country campaigning. We've got to ask, however: Does the 70-year-old senator know how to use an iPod?
From NBC's Mark Murray
We're surprised we haven't heard more of this from the Democratic presidential contenders not named
Hillary Clinton (or perhaps
Barack Obama)... Per journalist
Douglas Burns: "Democratic presidential candidate
John Edwards Sunday warned Iowa voters about what he perceives as the perils of nominating a candidate who down-ticket Democrats in some parts of the nation may decline to appear with in their own campaign events. Speaking in Carroll, Edwards made the observation after saying there are 'three of us who are most likely to be the Democratic nominee.'"
"'It's not just a question of who you like,' Edwards said. 'It's not just a question of whose vision you are impressed with. It's also a question of who is most likely to win the general election. It's a pretty simple thing. Who will be a stronger candidate in the general election here in the state of Iowa? Who can go to other parts of the country when we have swing candidates running for the Congress and the Senate? Is the candidate going to have to say, "Don't come here. Down come here and campaign with me. I can't win if you campaign with me."'"
"He added later, 'I think it's just a reality that I can campaign any place in America.'"
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Sources close to former
Sen. Fred Thompson say his presidential announcement will likely come "the first half of July." Senior advisers "wave off" the previously reported July 4th date, saying it would be "presumptuous," even "over the top" to "think our news is more important than the nation's birthday." Advisers say that date "took on a life of its own" in media coverage. More practically, they say the holiday is not ideal because too many people are busy with their own plans and not tuned in to politics.So when? At this point, they say they are looking at the first half of July. Some advisers indicate it could go later if all the pieces are not in place. They acknowledged the team knows a decision needs to happen this summer saying, "You can only test the waters for so long" -- adding, that "if it takes four or five or ten extra days the time will be well spent."
Advisers say the time, format and venue of the announcement are all still under consideration. Right now, they're working on core message defining Thompson's candidacy. That's being "sharpened." That's why the Web site is so bare.
On Thompson's decision, one adviser says, "I'd be shocked if we weren't making the leap."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
The news about that Obama opposition-research document hitting Clinton for her ties to Indian-American donors isn't going away -- even from Obama's supporters. On Sunday, South Asians for Obama '08 blogged that it was "shocked and dismayed" to learn about the document. "In addition to being offended by the clear anti-Indian sentiment in the memo, we were particularly disturbed because the memo flies in the face of what we respect most about Senator Obama -- his inclusive message and his ability to relate to people of all backgrounds."
More: "We have been in contact with the campaign over the weekend and are confident that this issue is now receiving the attention of those at the highest level. The Senator himself is cognizant of our concerns ... and has made clear his intention to address the situation personally. The campaign has already begun reaching out to individual members of the community, and a more public gesture will be forthcoming. Over the next several days, we will continue to communicate with the campaign to convey the sentiments of the community regarding this incident and work toward a positive resolution."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** What A Difference A Year Makes: A year ago, at the liberal Campaign for America's Future "Take Back America" conference, Hillary Clinton received boos when she stated it wasn't "smart strategy to set a date certain" for withdrawal from Iraq. But as this year's "Take Back America" conference begins today -- with Clinton speaking early Tuesday morning -- her tone has noticeably changed. "If we ... don't end this war before January 2009, as president I will," she now says. "I think she's going to get a very good greeting" on Tuesday, Roger Hickey, the Campaign's co-director, tells First Read. "She has refined her position so most people will applaud."
*** That Said...: But Clinton's refined position on Iraq produces a couple of questions -- which she hasn't been asked at the first two Democratic debates (after which her lead in the national polls has grown). One, why did her tone change only after she embarked on her presidential bid? (This question can also be asked of some of the other Democratic contenders, including Obama and Edwards, whose anti-war rhetoric is much more pronounced than it was a couple of years ago.) Two, when she says that she wouldn't have voted to authorize the Iraq war "if I knew then what I now know," why is that others -- including at least two of her Dem opponents -- knew way back then that the war was a mistake? Did those people exercise better judgment than she did?
*** Nevertheless, there seems to be a conventional wisdom shift regarding Clinton. The word "inevitability" is creeping back to describe her ’08 prospects, while Obama seems to be the guy with questions surrounding his candidacy. Check out Ron Fournier's "is he ready" piece. One thing Clinton's camp should worry about regarding this shift: Did it come too soon? One can picture the fickle nature of the Beltway pundits taking one good fall debate performance by the newcomer, or seeing another national poll that shows Clinton with a net-negative rating, and recalibrating their "wisdom." Regardless, there's a shift toward Clinton right now. This week, we find out if that shift applies to liberal special interest groups.
*** Oppo-Games:
Obama received some critical press this weekend after word got out -- reportedly via the Clinton camp -- that Team Obama passed around an opposition document with some very tough words about Clinton's ties to Indian-American donors. One of the charges from this incident: If Obama promises a different kind of politics, why is his campaign engaging in the same oppo-game everyone else plays? Our question: By promising a different kind of politics, has Obama put himself in a difficult box for someone who's trailing a campaign that has no problem with playing rough? And if Obama apologizes too easily (and he's receiving major pressure on this story), does he send a subtle message that he isn't tough enough to beat the Republicans or the Clintons? Also, the Sun-Times has another Rezko story…
*** Giuliani Unscathed:
Speaking of playing rough, today’s New York Daily News notes how none of Giuliani’s GOP rivals is directly taking him on. Have all of Giuliani's opponents settled into this idea that the GOP race setting up as Giuliani vs. the winner of the anti-Giuliani primary of Romney v. McCain v. Fred Thompson?
*** Sports Metaphor Time:
Yesterday in sports told us nothing about the campaign, but that doesn't mean we won't try. Tiger's inability to mount a comeback -- he has never won a major when trailing on a Sunday -- could be used as a metaphor if one of our front-runners proves he/she can't run a come-from-behind bid. Meanwhile, the Spurs get no respect. They are the Richardson-McCain of the sports world. On paper, they have all the goods, but there is something missing.
*** On The Trail: Brownback stumps in Iowa; Clinton has private events in Buffalo, NY, Rochester NY, and East Brunswick, NJ; McCain raises money in New York and Massachusetts, and also gives the commencement address at the US Merchant Marine Academy; and Obama is in Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 1 day
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 8 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 54 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 76 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 124 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 141 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 152 days
Countdown to Iowa: 210 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 231 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 505 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 582 days
BROWNBACK:
His campaign is now the second GOP one in the last two weeks (the other was Giuliani’s) to
draw a negative reaction to an attempt to point out Romney's Mormon religion. In this case, a Brownback Iowa aide "violated campaign policy when she forwarded the June 6 e-mail from an interest group raising the questions, the Brownback campaign said Sunday. The e-mail requested help in fact-checking a series of statements about the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints."
GIULIANI: The Sunday New York Times looked at the criticism that the former New York mayor has received from firefighters. “Interviews with more than 50 firefighters and department officers show a mix of admiration and disdain for the former mayor. Many firefighters praise his years in office, citing his success in reducing crime and his leadership after the terrorist attacks. Others harbor a resentment for what they describe as his poor treatment of the department before and after Sept. 11.”
The New York Daily News smartly notes how Giuliani, despite being the national poll front-runner, has escaped major attacks from his opponents. "The dynamic could not have been clearer last week. As Giuliani merrily announced a 12-point plan for America - while aiming all his jabs at Democrats - Romney and McCain were engaged in an increasingly bitter intra-party brawl.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The Los Angeles Times does its "Biden 20 years later" profile. Remember that in 1987, he was Obama, sort of.
CLINTON:
Salon's Walter Shapiro traveled with Clinton recently and came away convinced she is a candidate who does her homework. Also in that interview, Shapiro asked if she takes offense to being called "Hillary" instead of "Clinton" in print. “‘I probably have more of an open mind. But I understand the point people are taking because if you also refer to Rudy and Mitt and John then that would be even-handed. I get the same indignation from a lot of women who read you and others and say, ‘They never call the other candidates by their first name.’ And I think that in print -- as opposed to building a campaign that really does use my first name because it is so identified with who I am -- that's the concern that people have."
As we do above, The Politico's Smith curtain-raises the "Take Back America" conference and wonders if Clinton will get a better reception this time than she got last year.
CONTINUED >>
Do the 2008 Democrats have an electability problem? The Los Angeles Times examines the polling phenomenon that has a generic Dem leading a generic GOPer by some 20 points in national polls, but when either Clinton or Obama are matched up against the GOP front-runners (particularly Giuliani, but McCain as well), the lead shrinks to nothing.
Meanwhile, Quinnipiac Florida pollster looks at the campaign and the suddenly fluctuating GOP primary and makes the case the GOP primary will dominate the summer, as we await the formal entry of Fred Thompson. "Thompson may turn out to be a bust. But Republican voters clearly are willing to give him an audition to be their leading man."
A new Mason-Dixon poll in South Carolina finds Obama and Fred Thompson leading their respective primary fields. McClatchy sees the results as not good news for Edwards, since he won the state in 2004. Obama led in the new poll with 34 percent of likely voters to 25 percent for Clinton. Edwards was third at 12 percent. On the GOP side, Thompson topped Giuliani by 25 percent to 21 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was next at 11 percent, followed by McCain at 7 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 5 percent.
CONTINUED >>
The
Los Angeles Times: “For months, the Justice Department and Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales have taken political heat for the firings of nine U.S. attorneys last year. Now the fallout is starting to hit the department in courtrooms across the country. Defense lawyers in a growing number of cases are raising questions about the motives of government lawyers who have brought charges against their clients. In court papers, they are citing the furor over the U.S. attorney dismissals as evidence that their cases, too, may have been infected by politics.”
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Giuliani touted his “secure the borders first” approach to immigration reform today in Portland, OR, while attributing Congress’ low approval ratings to the deadlock and compromise that has made the legislation “fatally flawed,” in his view. “They don't seem to be able to accomplish anything," he said (channeling First Read). "They sit in these little back rooms, they come up with these compromises, it all makes sense to them, and then when you look at it, you actually step away from it and say, ‘Gee, it would be better if they didn't do anything!’”
He went on to stress the importance of a technologicallly-enhanced border fence and a tamper-proof ID card for all immigrants, again reminding his audience of the national security threats a porous border poses.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
It doesn't take an advanced degree in punditry to see that McCain is making a heck of a gamble. He's building his presidential campaign around two unpopular stances on two divisive issues -- Iraq and immigration. But the new life being breathed into the senator's comprehensive immigration reform bill today appears to be matched by his renewed confidence that he's placed a smart bet.
Asked by reporters if the weight of the bill's controversies could drown his presidential ambitions, McCain emphatically disagreed. "I think there's a long-term political benefit to getting something done," he said.
The senator even hinted that immigration could be the masterwork that would catapult -- not derail -- his Oh-eight run. "If we pass legislation," he said, "then I will have satisfied the desire of the majority of Americans."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast in DC this morning,
Clinton wasted little time in bringing up the immigration bill, stating her excitement that debate on the bill will once again convene with the hopeful goal of its passage. She reminisced about her childhood experiences, mentioning how she volunteered as a babysitter for young children of migrant workers on Saturdays, and realizing "at that young age, how similar their families were to mine." She tried to connect with the Hispanic preachers -- but did not repeat the mistake she made in Selma, AL by becoming a preacher herself and changing her mannerisms and accent to reflect her audience.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Earlier we told you about the
strange new Gravel videos. The campaign got back to us, and it turns out the campaign is behind them. Here's what
Press Secretary Shaun Alexander Colvin, said:
"It’s a personal statement rather than a usual political statement that you get from candidates. This message and this candidate are not just about rhetoric and promises or about being verbose. It's about a candidate looking you in the eye. He’s laying himself out, exposing himself, showing who he is." "He’s a man who’ll look you in the eye. He could’ve been standing in the park making political statements and promises and such, and he’s doing just the opposite. His message is out there. He’s articulated it for a year. He’s standing by his word. And giving you a chance to see who he is.
"The senator has very much an artistic spirit."
VIDEO: Watch the Gravel video on YouTube
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
What is Mike Gravel doing? In a YouTube video, he stares for about a minute, then dumps a large rock into a lake. In another, he walks through the woods, picks something up, walks off camera, then the video cuts to him sitting alone at a fire. The entire rest of the video might as well be the TV Christmas yule log. It's nothing but branches burning. At the end of both videos, the words of the campaign Web site, gravel2008.us, dissolve onto the screen.
We reached out to the campaign today, and a campaign worker who answered the phone said they’re getting “swamped” about the videos. The worker also said the ads were made about three weeks ago, but wouldn’t say if the campaign is behind them. A campaign spokesman is supposed to be getting back to us. When he does, we’ll make sure to post the response.
And Obama isn't the only one with a busty admirer. Check out the Gravel girl here -- who says, "I'm voting for Mike Gravel, because he'll still respect me in the morning" -- on the Gravel YouTube channel -- not here: or here.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Abortion Battle: Romney, Brownback, and Paul address the National Right to Life convention today in Kansas City -- with a little conflict and drama built in. On Wednesday, the McCain camp issued a press release drawing attention to a YouTube video in which Romney said (in 2005) that he was committed to upholding pro-choice laws in Massachusetts, even though he had already undergone his pro-life conversion. Team Romney fired back at McCain, saying his campaign “is faltering and failing.” And then Brownback’s camp got into the act yesterday by also blasting Romney. Now, the New York Times alleges that Romney has flip-flopped on stem-cell research. Quite a way to set up today's speech at the convention, huh?
***
Guess Who’s Also Speaking (Via Video):
A day after a rival campaign gave
CBN’s David Brody a copy of a 1996 (or thereabouts) questionnaire, in which Fred Thompson seemed to state some pro-choice views, Thompson’s friends give Brody a copy of the video the former Tennessee senator will use to address the National Right to Life convention. Early on, the video features Thompson’s wife and their young children, and then Thompson says: “In 1994, I made my first run for the U.S. Senate. I was proud to receive the National Right to Life endorsement. I’ve been with you ever since. You’ve been with me ever since.” Given that all of the GOP front-runners now seem to have problematic records for some social conservatives, does it come down to whom they find least threatening?
*** Let’s Make A Deal: NBC’s Ken Strickland says that Senate leaders struck a deal yesterday that would bring the immigration bill back to the Senate floor, although whether it passes remains uncertain. Today, several key leaders -- including President Bush, Hillary Clinton, DNC chairman Howard Dean, and RNC chairman Mel Martinez -- are attending the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast, where the immigration debate (and yesterday’s deal) will definitely be mentioned.
*** But…: The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal has plenty of numbers suggesting that getting the immigration bill through the Senate -- and then the House -- won’t be easy. In it, 46% believe immigration helps more than it hurts, while almost the same amount (44%) think the opposite. In addition, majorities oppose some of the Senate immigration bill’s legalization provisions: 64% are against allowing illegal workers to receive an automatic work visa if they pay a fine, and 55% oppose allowing illegal workers apply for permanent residency if they return home to their counties and pay additional fines.
*** Too Much Debate?
Speaking of the new poll, NBC/WSJ pollster Neil Newhouse (R) believes that one reason why Congress' approval rating has sunk to 23% in our latest survey is the frustration among voters that nothing is happening in Washington and Congress -- except debating. They've debated the Iraq supplemental, immigration, and Alberto Gonzales' fate. But nothing is getting done, Newhouse says. "It's almost as if voters sense the government is paralyzed by over-analysis on these issues.”
***
On The Trail: In addition to attending the prayer breakfast, Clinton discusses stem-cell research in New Hampshire; Edwards talks health care in Iowa, while wife Elizabeth makes three stops in New Hampshire; Giuliani is in Oregon; Huckabee appears on a Christian TV talk show and then raises money in Texas; McCain also raises money in Texas and Atlanta, then headlines the Alabama state GOP’s summer fund-raising dinner; Obama holds events in South Carolina; Richardson raises money in Minneapolis; Romney, in Iowa, meets with voters, holds a town hall meeting, and helps a county GOP committee raise money; and Tommy Thompson is also in Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 3 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 10 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 56 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 80 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 126 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 143 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 154 days
Countdown to Iowa: 212 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 233 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 507 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 584 days
NBC’s Strickland reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell have agreed on a way forward on the immigration bill. In a statement released early last night, the leaders said, "We met this evening with several of the senators involved in the immigration bill negotiations. Based on that discussion, the immigration bill will return to the Senate floor after completion of the energy bill."
What this means is that at some point -- probably later next week -- the Senate will resume debating and voting on amendments to the immigration bill. It does NOT mean the bill will pass next week. Stiff opposition still exists from a small but vocal minority of Republicans and Democrats.
The agreement means the leadership has agreed to vote on a fixed number of amendments. Some of these amendments, if passed, could dramatically alter the bill. So not only are we unsure if the bill will pass, Strick says, but until the amendments are voted on, we have no sense of what the final bill will even look like. The conventional wisdom is that the bipartisan coalition that wrote the bill (and sealed this new deal) feels they have the votes to kill any amendment that would undermine their bill, or they probably wouldn't have agreed to allow votes on it. But even this is a risky assumption.
CONTINUED >>
Channeling First Read, the Washington Times writes how Senate Majority Leader Reid “has refocused his antiwar crusade as his and Congress' job-approval ratings plummet to all-time lows. Mr. Reid began the week Monday by vowing to ‘push very, very hard’ for troop withdrawal from Iraq in a Defense Department budget authorization bill in two weeks. The next day … the Nevada Democrat and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California sent a letter to the White House imploring the president to heed the Democrat-led Congress' call for a pullout. That same day, Mr. Reid railed against the war and U.S. military leaders in a conference call with a group of liberal bloggers.”
Meanwhile, The Politico follows up on its report that Reid made critical comments about outgoing Joint Chiefs Chairman Peter Pace and Gen. David Petraeus in his conversation with the liberal bloggers. “Initially, several of the bloggers who took part in Tuesday’s call challenged the article and said Reid had never made derogatory comments on Pace or Petraeus. But then one, Bob Geiger of BobGeiger.com, stepped forward to confirm that the Nevada Democrat did in fact call Pace an ‘incompetent man’ during the interview. Several of the bloggers on the call also said they did not remember Reid saying anything about Petraeus, although other sources familiar with the conversation said Reid did make ‘disparaging remarks’ about the Iraq commander.”
In a conference with reporters yesterday, Americans Against Escalation in Iraq (AAEI) unveiled its “Iraq Summer” -- modeled on the civil-rights era “Freedom Summer” --- which will dispatch about 100 organizers across 15 states to target 40 different GOP congressmen who are opposed to changing the course in Iraq. The call featured representatives from liberal/anti-war groups like MoveOn.org, USAction, SEIU, and Americans United for Change.
The Politico’s Martin writes that “the GOP contest has so far been notably lacking in specific policy pronouncements. Republicans have begun butting heads over issues ranging from abortion to immigration – but they’ve not yet begun to fight over white papers and 10-point plans. That may start to change this summer as leading GOP contenders begin to lay out their solutions on issues such as taxes, energy and defense.”
BROWNBACK: The
Des Moines Register reports that Brownback says he’ll make a four-day, 27-stop tour of Iowa in preparation for the Ames straw poll.
GIULIANI: The
New York Times says that Giuliani, “who has largely steered clear of criticizing President Bush as he campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination, took an indirect swipe at the president on Thursday, suggesting that Mr. Bush was failing to provide strong leadership. “‘What we’re lacking is strong, aggressive, bold leadership like we had with Ronald Reagan,’ Mr. Giuliani told supporters at a Flag Day rally in Wilmington, Del.’” The paper goes on to say, “After his address in Delaware, Mr. Giuliani was quick to try to explain his remarks and praise Mr. Bush. ‘I have tremendous admiration for President Bush,’ he said, according to a transcript provided by his campaign.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN:
The campaign announced yesterday that Biden picked the endorsement of the Delaware state AFL-CIO, making him the first Dem presidential candidate to receive an endorsement from a state AFL chapter. But while the Biden camp picked up an endorsement, the
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reports that it lost one of its tops fundraiser after a dispute over strategy. “Kory Mitchell, considered one of the party's best fundraisers and formerly the finance director of Evan Bayh's All America PAC, quit the campaign this week, according to three friends of his.”
Biden also co-writes an op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle, detailing his plan for Iraq, which includes a “diplomatic surge,” a “decentralized federal government” and splitting the nation up in the model of Bosnia.
CLINTON: Per the Los Angeles Times, “Congressional financial disclosure reports released Thursday show that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bill Clinton have assets valued from $10 million to $50 million, with the former president bringing in speaking fees of more than $10 million in just the last year. The disclosure forms filed by the New York Democrat detail the couple's remarkable financial transformation since they left the White House in 2001 encumbered by millions of dollars in legal debts.”
CONTINUED >>
The
Washington Post reports that the Justice Department is investigating whether AG Alberto Gonzales tried to improperly influence Monica Goodling’s testimony, “adding a new dimension to the troubles already besetting the nation's chief law enforcement official.” Goodling, the paper says, testified last month that a mid-March meeting with Gonzales “made her feel ‘a little uncomfortable.’”
“Justice Department spokesman Brian Roehrkasse repeated yesterday a previous statement by Gonzales that the attorney general never sought to influence Goodling's testimony. A White House spokesman also reiterated that President Bush ‘fully supports the attorney general,’ who this week was the target of an unsuccessful no-confidence vote organized by Senate Democrats.”
The Los Angeles Times adds, “Goodling recounted for lawmakers how she had become distraught about the controversy and had approached Gonzales about a possible transfer. She said Gonzales began to tell her what he recalled about the process that led to the dismissals of the U.S. attorneys last year. Goodling testified that she grew concerned that Gonzales was attempting to draw her into a conversation that might not be ‘appropriate’ because Congress was seeking the testimony of both officials.”
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid once again found himself on the defensive after calling the outgoing Joint Chiefs Chairman Peter Pace "incompetent" during a recent conference call interview with liberal bloggers. His comments were first reported by The Politico and confirmed by NBC News. Earlier this year Reid was criticized after saying "the war is lost."
At an on-camera news conference this afternoon on energy, Reid was showered with questions about the "incompetent" statement. Reid refused to repeat it, but also didn't deny he said it. "I'm not going to get into it, what I said or didn't say," he calmly told reporters, suggesting Pace's failure to be renominated to his position by Secretary of Defense Gates spoke for itself. "There's a long line of people who've indicated in various ways that General Pace was not the person to be the chairman on the Joint Chiefs. That's why name was pulled." Reid said in a private meeting with Pace he told him, "that he had not done a very good job... I told him that to his face."
Then more questions came from reporters trying to nail down the "incompetent" comment. "I think we should just drop it. The fact is he's not going to be the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs for which I'm happy," Reid said.
Military officers now targets on Hill CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Per a senior Administration official, "Scooter Libby still has the right to appeal, and therefore the President will continue not to intervene in the judicial process. The President feels terribly for Scooter, his wife and their young children, and all that they're going through."
From NBC's Joel Seidman
U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton ruled that
I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby must report to prison, and not be allowed to remain free on bond pending the outcome of his appeal.
For more: Libby prison sentence delay denied
NBC's Carrie Dann and Domenico Montanaro
When the McCain camp hastily scheduled a press conference in Los Angeles yesterday, they were likely hoping to land his second offensive punch of the day, this time at Clinton's hefty earmark load in the latest Defense Appropiations bill.
But after the Senator delivered his quick (dare we say "half-hearted"?) jab at Clinton's alleged pork barreling, it was the press that came out swinging. McCain had to defend his attack on rival Mitt Romney earlier in the day, his new attacking posture and his lackluster showing in the polls.
"My understanding is that Governor Romney had changed his statement,” McCain said of comments Romney made on abortion rights at a 2005 event. McCain's campaign circulated a video of Romney meant to portray the former governor as a right-to-life flip-flopper. “I think that's legitimate, because I think it has to do with the confidence of the voters in people who are seeking their support to be President of the United States."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The financial disclosure form for
Bill and
Hillary Clinton is out, and here are a couple of the findings per the
AP:
-- Bill Clinton made $10 million in speeches last year
-- the Clintons have at least $10 million in the bank -- and might have as much as $50 million
The AP writes: "The Clintons had a much more pedestrian income when he ran for president in 1992. If Sen. Clinton's 2008 presidential bid is successful, they will enter the White House a very rich couple."
From NBC's Ken Strickland, Mike Viqueira, and Chip Reid
New life for immigration reform could come today. "Grand Bargainers" are meeting late this morning amid signs that (another) deal is in the offing.
They are working out how many and what amendments each respective side will be considered during floor debate. It's looking like 10 or 11 each.
Conservatives are unlikely to be satisfied on account of the Z visa program (known to some as the "amnesty" provision), which is likely to stay in. That means GOP senators like South Carolina's Jim DeMint and Alabama's Jeff Sessions will be rolled -- the bill moves forward over their objections.
The renewed debate would not begin until next week at the earliest, if it happens.
VIDEO: Bush: Immigration ‘status quo is unacceptable’
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
***
Problem With The Dog Food? The most striking thing about the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is the damage that's been done to the GOP brand. Bush is not only unpopular (his approval rating is just 29% and favorability is only 32% -- both all-time lows for him). But his unpopularity also is dragging down the image of the Republican Party to its lowest level ever in this survey (28% positive rating). For better or worse, the GOP needs Bush to improve if they want the party's image to improve.
***
Donkey Gong: While the GOP is dealing with historic image problems, all is not well for the Democrats. Congress' job rating (23%) is worse than Bush's. Maybe it's no coincidence that in the same week Congress is on the receiving end of bad ratings, congressional Democratic leaders are trying to restart a fight over Iraq policy with the White House. Looking ineffective on non-Iraq issues wasn't working, so now Reid-Pelosi are going back to the one issue that unifies the base. Note that Reid met with several liberal bloggers earlier this week.
***
A “Changed” Woman: In the race for the Democratic nomination, Clinton has increased her lead over Obama from five points in April (36%-31%) to 14 points now (39%-25%). What has happened? The poll shows that Democrats give Clinton high marks for her knowledge and experience, and give Obama high marks for being “inspirational” and “exciting.” However, Clinton outscores Obama on the question of who brings real change to the direction of the country. How are the Obama folks allowing Clinton -- who served eight years as First Lady and another six-plus years as senator -- to be the “change” candidate?
***
Enter Fred: The biggest news from the poll in the GOP presidential field is that Fred Thompson -- who still isn’t even in the race officially -- finishes second to Giuliani (29%-20%). McCain, meanwhile, is tied with Romney at 14%, which won’t help the Arizona senator much in parrying reporters who are eager to write his obituary. Also, it seems like Thompson’s possible entry into the race has perked up GOP voters. In April, just 53% of Republicans said they were satisfied with their presidential field. That number now is 73%.
VIDEO: Survey says: American is grumpy
*** The Other Thompson Twin: Yesterday, Tommy Thompson’s team issued a press release stating he would make a “major announcement” on the future of his presidential campaign via conference call -- which had everyone speculating he was dropping out of the race. As it turned out, though, he said he would be participating in the Ames straw poll. The near-campaign death experience for Thompson's camp is a reminder for all second-tier candidates that if they fail to make the first tier, their biggest press day will take place on the day they drop out. Tommy Thompson got 50+ reporters to show up for yesterday's conference call. He won't get that again until ...
*** On The Trail: Clinton, in New Hampshire, delivers the commencement speech at Manchester Central High School; Edwards reveals more details of his universal health-care policy in Michigan; Giuliani meets with the Delaware GOP at a Flag Day rally; Huckabee talks with Hannity on radio and TV; McCain continues his fund-raising blitz -- this time with three stops in Texas; Obama hits DC and North Carolina; Richardson raises money in Minneapolis; and Romney raises money in Chicago.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 4 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 11 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 57 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 81 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 127 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 144 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 155 days
Countdown to Iowa: 213 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 234 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 508 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 585 days
The New York Times reports that the White House and senators from both parties have “mapped out possible changes” in the Senate immigration bill “so they could better portray it as a way to bolster national security rather than to grant amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants. The changes would include a guarantee of several billion dollars for tougher border security and law enforcement and would allow the government to take more time before granting work permits to illegal immigrants who seek legal status.”
A separate Times piece notes how immigrant advocates are stepping up their activities. “Two nationwide caravans supporting immigrant rights are on their way to Washington, including members of a “Dreams Across America” campaign that left Wednesday on a train here to tell their stories at several stops and through a multimedia Web site. It is one of three ‘Dreams Across America’ trains carrying 100 immigrants through different parts of the country.”
The Washington Post’s Broder, who admits he’s no fan of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, writes that the ball is in Reid’s court to move the stalled immigration bill. “It is hard to say who looked worse in the Senate's impasse on immigration legislation -- Democrats or Republicans -- but the responsibility for reviving that measure clearly rests most heavily on the shoulders of … Reid.”
But is it Democrats’ responsibility to bring together the Republicans who are so divided over this legislation? Says the Washington Times: “The debate over President Bush's immigration bill and opposition to it as an ‘amnesty’ proposal have invigorated otherwise dispirited conservative interest groups and forged an anti-Bush unity on the right not seen since the Supreme Court nomination of Harriet Miers.”
The Washington Post front-pages this: “Three months into the new U.S. military strategy that has sent tens of thousands of additional troops into Iraq, overall levels of violence in the country have not decreased, as attacks have shifted away from Baghdad and Anbar, where American forces are concentrated, only to rise in most other provinces, according to a Pentagon report released yesterday.”
More: “Iraq's government, for its part, has proven ‘uneven’ in delivering on its commitments under the strategy, the report said, stating that public pledges by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have in many cases produced no concrete results.”
GIULIANI: While he’s skipping the Ames straw poll, the
AP notes that Giuliani accepted an invitation to participate in an Iowa debate just a week before the straw poll.The
New York Post jokes that Giuliani left two pledges off of his 12 Commitments list: “1) I will not let the Albanians steal my watch; and, 2) I will talk to my children.”
HUCKABEE: The former Arkansas governor opened his Iowa campaign office in Des Moines yesterday, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum says. Huckabee said he's hoping to discuss concrete issues with Iowans -- like education, tax policy, and health care -- compared with some of the questions he received at the most recent CNN debate. "We get questions sometimes in these debates about what we believe about evolution, or what we believe about pardoning Scooter Libby. And I would suggest that there wasn't a single family in America that sat at their dinner table during the night of the debate and said, 'Gee, I wonder if the next president would pardon Scooter Libby. Gosh, I wonder what the next president would like to do about writing an eighth grade science textbook.' So one thing I look forward to in Iowa is getting out in the 99 counties in this wonderful state and talking to real people about the real issues that they care about."
MCCAIN: The Boston Globe covers McCain’s “broadside” offensive yesterday against Romney on the issue of abortion, in which he tried “to stir up controversy before Romney's address to the National Right to Life convention in Kansas City tomorrow.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN:
The Delaware senator’s sister, Valerie, speaks at a Flag Day event in Iowa.
NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said the State Department is refusing to make the US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker available via video-conference to testify before his committee next week. Biden says the department also snubbed the panel with assistance to secure testimony from General David Petraeus.
In a letter to Secretary of State Condi Rice, Biden said since his initial requests the week of May 28th, "each appeared repeatedly on American television and gave interviews to American publications." He cited interviews with more than a half dozen news outlets, including interviews on Fox News Sunday and a State Department news briefing via teleconference. "There is no justification for making Ambassador Crocker so widely available to the news media, but not to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee" Biden wrote.
A New York Times editorial on the lack of armored humvees notes, “Only now are Pentagon leaders, prodded by Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. and other critics on Capitol Hill, rushing to ramp up production.” CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal, NBC’s polling partner, has this lead in its report of the new NBC/WSJ survey: “By a startling 52%-31% margin, Americans say they want Democrats to win the presidency next year. Americans give the Republican Party their most negative assessment in the two decade history of Journal/NBC survey, and by 49%-36% say the Democratic Party more closely shares their values and positions on the issues. ‘The political environment for Republicans continues to erode,’ says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse… A particular long-term worry for the party: Republican gains among the growing Hispanic constituency, long a key target for President Bush, have vanished amid an acrimonious national debate over immigration policy.”
The Washington Post examines how the changes in the primary calendar are changing how the presidential contenders are waging their campaigns. “In prior campaigns, candidates fought for votes in Iowa and New Hampshire while largely ignoring the rest of the country based on a time-tested belief that wins in those two early states would slingshot them into contention. But now, with many large states moving their primaries to late January or early February, even the best-known and best-financed candidates are being forced to make tough tradeoffs.”
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times says that the candidates are making lots of stops in California -- but just for money not public interaction. “This wasn't how the campaign was supposed to unfold in California… An early primary was supposed to mean that the candidates would take the state and its issues seriously and not just stop by to pick up cash to spend elsewhere.”
The
Washington Post reports that the decision by two congressional panels to subpoena former White House aides Harriet Miers and Sara Taylor “escalates a constitutional showdown over the Justice Department's firing of nine U.S. attorneys that could end up being decided by the federal courts.” More: “The subpoenas from the House and Senate judiciary committees are the first to be served directly on the White House or its staff since the start of the uproar over the prosecutor firings. They signal that Democrats are willing to pursue protracted litigation to determine whether President Bush or his top aides played a significant role in identifying U.S. attorneys to be removed.”
In a front-page article, the New York Times reports how the Civil Rights Division in Gonzales’ Justice Department “has recast the federal government’s role in civil rights by aggressively pursuing religion-oriented cases while significantly diminishing its involvement in the traditional area of race.”
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWhen Tommy Thompson's campaign put out a statement earlier today that the campaign was making a "major announcement," the buzz was that he was dropping out of the presidential race.
It turns out, he just wanted to announce that he will be participating in the Ames straw poll.
"I know many of you signed on today to see if I was dropping out of the race," Thompson said in a conference call with reporters. "Last week, everyone was calling me to see if I was dropping out of the Ames straw poll. I am very much involved in this campaign. A big part of my campaign plan has been the August straw poll. We will be able to take our message to a national audience with the straw poll."
Earlier this month, Rudy Giuliani announced he would not be participating in the straw poll. Hours later, John McCain followed suit and chose not to participate, diminishing the importance of the event.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Everything was all “He’s my friend” between Romney and McCain at the Republican debate. But the behind-the-scenes jabs are keeping up -- and getting more overt. Today, punches were thrown over Romney’s stance on abortion and statements he made at a May 2005 event.
McCain’s campaign accused Romney of flip-flopping on the issue, circulating a release this afternoon with this headline: “Mitt vs. Fact. Say. Do. Anything. Shifting positions on abortion.” The Romney campaign – recognizing its lead in recent polls -- came right back at McCain, describing the campaign’s motives as “borne of desperation” and “sad and unfortunate.”
Both link to different videos of the same event. (McCain’s here). Romney’s here.)
The McCain campaign links to a
video of the event they say is proof that Romney has shifted his position on abortion. The Romney camp accuses the McCain team of “selective editing,” links to this
video and adds this 2005 op-ed Romney wrote in the
Boston Globe about why he vetoed a Massachusetts contraception bill.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The McCain camp yesterday sent out a heartfelt plea for -- what else -- money. With the June 30th, second-quarter deadline looming, the McCain folks say they have pledged to raise $3 million online by the date. In a "new initiative" they call their eCampaign, National eCampaign Director Christian Ferry urges supporters to "join our campaign today." The e-mail provides eight working links to make a contribution.
And in a kind of kitschy ploy, one of the links is a picture of an aircraft carrier with a fighter jet on it. The campaign writes, "Your immediate contribution will help catapult the aircraft off the carrier toward our goal." So, let me see if I can follow. Is McCain the jet being held back? And then, to continue the metaphor, is the carrier polls?
The letter calls the campaign a "marathon" and says "we are still in the early stages. The steady strategy of this campaign will win in the end...." Sounds like a concession of being behind.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The House and Senate Judiciary committees have subpoenaed former White House aides
Sara Taylor and
Harriet Miers as part of the committees' investigation into the fired US attorneys controversy.
Said House Judiciary Committee Chairman
John Conyers in a statement: "Let me be clear: this subpoena is not a request, it is a demand on behalf of the American people for the White House to make available the documents and individuals we are requesting to help us answer the questions that remain," said Chairman Conyers. "The breadcrumbs in this investigation have always led to 1600 Pennsylvania. This investigation will not end until the White House complies with the demands of this subpoena in a timely and reasonable manner so that we may get to the bottom of this."
Added Senate Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy: "The White House cannot have it both ways -- it cannot stonewall congressional investigations by refusing to provide documents and witnesses, while claiming nothing improper occurred. The involvement of the White House's political operation in this project, including former Political Director Sara Taylor and her boss Karl Rove, has been confirmed by information gathered by congressional committees. Some at the White House may hope to thwart our constitutional oversight efforts by locking the doors and closing the curtains, but we will keep asking until we get to the truth."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In a blow to
Obama,
Kendrick Meek -- a prominent African-American Congressman from Florida, an important swing state -- endorsed
Clinton today. This is the latest in the jostling for the minority vote between Clinton and Obama. Yesterday,
Bob Menendez -- who has strong support in the Latino community -- also endorsed Clinton despite Obama having campaigned for him more than Clinton during Menendez’s tough 2006 NJ Senate bid.
As we mentioned earlier in the week, there was
word Meek was going to endorse Clinton -- spread by her campaign. But he told the campaign they were “not authorized” to use his name. Now, though, it’s been made official.
“Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate with the perfect blend of leadership, talent and intellect to lead our nation in a new direction," said Meek, who was also named a senior advisor to the Clinton campaign. "It is my honor to endorse Senator Hillary Clinton to be our next president.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The
Richmond Times-Dispatch got its hands on the news yesterday, but now we're able to confirm: The White House has hired former RNC chairman
Ed Gillespie to replace outgoing
Dan Bartlett as White House counselor.
President Bush will announce the hiring of Gillespie in the Oval Office at 12:45 pm ET.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
The Clinton campaign is announcing that filmmaker Steven Spielberg is endorsing Clinton.
Spielberg had co-sponsored an Obama fundraiser earlier in the year, but the 1st-quarter financial reports showed that he had donated to both Obama and Clinton.
Does Katzenberg break the DreamWorks tie? Geffen for Obama, Spielberg for Clinton... Jeffery, what say you?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Fundraiser-In-Chief: Many Republicans might be furious at Bush over his advocacy for the Senate immigration bill, but they are more than happy to have him raise money for them. Tonight, he headlines a fundraiser for the GOP House and Senate campaign committees. Bush, however, rolls into this annual event weakened politically by the immigration debate. How weakened? Tune into NBC Nightly News at 6:30 pm ET -- or click onto MSNBC.com at the same time -- for the answer to that question, plus Congress' standing, the 2008 race, and much more.
***
Not Made For TV: Watching Giuliani deliver his “12 Commitments” speech yesterday on a TV screen, we couldn't help but notice that it wasn't designed for TV. It was an event that was likely better in person than on camera. It's interesting that the two best candidates for rallies right now -- Obama and Giuliani -- aren't the best TV performers yet. Both are conversationalists, and while that's great in-person, it doesn't always play well through the camera lens. Here's guessing, both candidates are working to be better on camera (and both have made performance improvements in the televised debates).
*** Fred Thompson vs. Arthur Branch: Speaking of TV, ex-“Law & Order” star Fred Thompson didn’t make any real news on Leno last night. When he officially gets into the race, we have this thought: Thompson’s biggest obstacle might be Arthur Branch. What if he’s not as good on the campaign stump as he is scripted on TV? Do remember that he didn’t exactly draw rave reviews from his two big appearances prior to Leno -- his speeches to Orange County Republicans and the Virginia GOP. 
VIDEO: former U.S. senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, left, appearing on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" in Burbank, California, on Tuesday.
***
More Rezko Troubles? The Chicago Sun-Times reports today that, as a state senator, Obama wrote letters supporting indicted developer Tony Rezko’s bid to win more than $14 million in contracts, which appears to contradict Obama’s earlier claim that he’s never done favors for Rezko. Obama’s camp responds that the letters he wrote were intended to benefit the community, not Rezko. “As the Sun Times acknowledges in today’s article, Senator Obama didn’t support this project as a favor to anyone -- he did in an effort to have the most positive impact on his community possible,” the campaign says. One thing seems to be sure, however: So far, Obama is getting tougher treatment from his hometown newspapers (especially the Sun-Times) than Clinton is from hers.
*** What Happens In Vegas…: Richardson has a busy day campaigning in Las Vegas, as does Michelle Obama, who hosts a “Women for Obama” event there.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Edwards raises money on Obama’s turf -- in Chicago; Huckabee makes three stops in Iowa; and McCain and Romney continue to raise money in California. McCain also holds a media avail in Los Angeles.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 5 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 12 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 58 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 82 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 128 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 145 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 156 days
Countdown to Iowa: 214 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 235 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 509 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 586 days
The
Boston Globe seems optimistic that something will get restarted soon on the immigration bill. "Senators in both parties … said they were increasingly confident they could restart the stalled measure, and worked yesterday to craft an agreement to schedule a vote." As for Bush's visit, he didn't make new enemies, but he also didn't have to hide his watch due to so many GOP lawmakers fawning over him. "Instead of using threats or demanding the loyalty the president prizes, Bush used charm, allowing them to vent their objections and answering a few questions."
The New York Times on Bush’s visit to Capitol Hill yesterday: [“T]hose who attended the lunch said that the questions to the president and the exchanges were cordial and substantive and that the president did not take aim at conservatives who helped torpedo the legislation last week. ‘He made clear that he wasn’t there to threaten anybody or do anything that would be hostile to anybody who disagrees with him,’ said Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, a leading opponent of the bill. ‘He was there to appeal to our sense of commitment to do the right thing.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Iraqi government isn't providing enough good news to make the unofficial September deadline for Congress look promising. The
New York Times: "Iraq's political leaders have failed to reach agreements on nearly every law that the Americans have demanded as benchmarks, despite heavy pressure from Congress, the White House and top military commanders. With only three months until progress reports are due in Washington, the deadlock has reached a point where many Iraqi and American officials now question whether any substantive laws will pass before the end of the year."
GIULIANI: The New York Times on Giuliani's “12 Commitments” speech: "Noticeably absent from the speech was any mention of the war in Iraq, likely to be the central challenge for any new president. Asked afterward about the omission, the candidate said Iraq must be viewed in the context of a broader fight against terrorism. It was not dealt with singly in the speech, he said, because the fluid situation there makes it hard to speak in specifics about the war.
The New York Daily News has this lead: "Moses had the Ten Commandments. Yesterday, Rudy Giuliani offered up his "12 Commitments." From the story: "Many of Giuliani's commitments, such as his pledge to reduce the number of abortions and cut taxes, were aimed at the Republican faithful. And several, such as his pledge to use statistics to impose accountability, also reflected policies he advanced as mayor of New York." The article also contains a graphic showing a smiling Giuliani over two stone tablets.
The AP notes Giuliani's regular use of the word "stat." FedStat, IraqStat, BorderState, etc. are all words Giuliani uses to convey the accountability he plans to bring to government. Could Rudy be our first "Freak-anomics president"?
VIDEO: MSNBC's Chris Matthews discusses Rudy Giuliani’s commitments
HUCKABEE: It's interesting to see yet another liberal columnist -- this time the Washington Post’s Ruth Marcus -- praising Huckabee. Realize that if Democrats could pick their ideal GOP nominee, they'd pick Huckabee (it's amazing how many Democrats we run into who say good things about Huckabee). Conversely, the Democratic presidential candidate Republicans regularly praise the most: Bill Richardson. This is why one shouldn't rely on smart Republicans to handicap the Democrats or smart Democrats to handicap the Republicans.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York Sun notes the campaign seems to be in overdrive on the fundraising front. While providing no new estimates of what Clinton will raise, the piece includes yet ANOTHER Clinton aide pushing this idea that Obama will not only outraise Clinton but get close to $40 million. It's worth noting that we've only heard the "40" number for Obama from Clinton supporters. It's amazing the campaign's ability to play this game with the media. Obama's camp must be frustrated at how often this "40" figure is getting printed (oops, we just did it!)
Of course, the irony of the money spin game is that, once again, Terry McAuliffe is causing his own candidate expectations headaches with his declaration to the Wall Street Journal last week that they've already banked $23 million this quarter.
Once again, the Los Angeles Times' Brownstein handicaps Clinton exactly right: "After watching Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) juggle pointed questions before nearly 1,000 union members here Saturday, it was easy to imagine how she might pull away from her rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination. But it was also possible to see how she might stumble on the way."
EDWARDS: Perhaps this shouldn't come as a surprise, but outspoken Texas liberal Jim Hightower is on Team Edwards; he introduced Edwards at his small donor Austin fundraisers yesterday.
CONTINUED >>
DNC chair Howard Dean hasn’t gotten the memo from the Clinton campaign about the importance of the Florida primary. Dean said yesterday that the state’s Jan. 29 primary would not count. "By moving to Jan. 29, Dean told a New Hampshire student, Florida Democrats ‘essentially converted their primary to a straw poll.’ The St. Pete Times: “Translation: National leaders of the ‘count every vote’ party are refusing to count the votes of Florida, where the term ‘disenfranchised voters’ became a rallying cry in 2000." (Of course, Florida Democrats knew well that they would be penalized for moving up their primary before February 5.)
The AP has the results and some analysis of the new CNN/WMUR poll showing Romney ahead of Giuliani in New Hampshire by eight points. In March and April, Romney trailed Giuliani and McCain by double digits.
Apparently, there isn't a White House email that isn't going to be perused by the media from here on out. The
Washington Post reports on the emails top aides exchanged when the controversy over the firing of the US attorneys first erupted earlier this year. Here's a shocker: Karl Rove was involved and his office wasn't happy with how the Justice Department was handling the fallout.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumClinton received the endorsement of New Jersey Sen.
Bob Menendez (D) at her press conference this morning that was billed to announce a major endorsement. Menendez told reporters, "To me, who leads our nation is the most important choice that we collectively make as Americans. This is the most important choice for leadership of this nation in my lifetime, and that is why I am proud to endorse Senator Hillary Clinton for president to bring real change to our nation."
Although
Obama campaigned for Menendez in 2006 three times and Clinton did so only once, Menendez was clear on why he chose Clinton. "The long history I have with Senator Clinton, her long history in terms of the key issues I care about both for New Jersey and for the Latino community and the country run very deep. That's what tipped the scales." He also addressed Iraq. "As someone who voted against the Iraq war, it is my judgment that Sen. Clinton is the leader best able to move us forward and get us out of this war."
And what about
Richardson, the actual Latino who's running for president? "I have a great respect for Gov. Richardson," Menendez said. "I have a great respect for all the candidates, my colleagues in the United States Senate. You look at the totality of the situation. Sen. Clinton, on the key issues affecting us, from her days in the White House as the First Lady, on healthcare and education, to her days in the United States Senate, has consistently been an advocate on the key issues that the Latino community cares about and that we care about as Americans... Across the spectrum, I think she has a track record which is worthy of being supported. While her surname isn't Latino, her record is overwhelmingly one that Latinos can be proud of."
From NBC's Joel Seidman
There is an air of anticipation that GOP presidential contender-in-waiting
Fred Thompson will have something substantive to say tonight about his still-to-be-announced run for the White House when he appears on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.
When asked about his upcoming appearance on the late night talk show a few weeks ago at a GOP fundraiser in Richmond, Thompson told NBC News, "I met him a long time ago. He's a great guy," Thompson said, referring to Leno. No hint about any bombshells expected to be launched on the show tonight.
But four years ago another actor turned politician made headlines with his announcement on the Tonight Show. Nearly 9 million people tuned in to watch
Schwarzenegger tell Leno, "The man who has failed the people more than anyone is Gray Davis. He has failed them terribly ... this is why I'm going to run for governor."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken StricklandWhile
President Bush is expected to rally GOP Senate support today for a comprehensive immigration reform bill, several Republican senators are pushing Bush to address border security first -- regardless of the bill's fate. In two different letters sent to Bush by two different sets of senators, they strongly suggest their constituents don't trust the Administration's immigration policy.
Georgia Sens.
Johnny Isakson and
Saxby Chambliss are asking the president to send Congress an emergency supplemental spending bill to fund border security. They write that "the message from a majority of Georgians is that they have no trust that the United States Government will enforce the laws contained in this new legislation and secure the border first." They say the Administration's "lack of credibility" gives merit to skeptics.
Another letter signed by nine GOP senators, including some vocal opponents of the comprehensive plan, calls on Bush to enforce existing border security laws "regardless of whether the Senate passes the immigration reform bill." Describing border security as "vital," the group says it's "the best way to restore trust with the American people and facilitate future improvements of our immigration policy."
That letter is signed by Sens. DeMint, Coburn, Enzi, Vitter, Inhofe, Bunning, Grassley, Ensign, and Sessions. Combined with the letter from Isakson and Chambliss, the "border security-first" opinion of represents more than 20% of the Senate GOP caucus.
>
VIDEO: Bush goes to lunch to save borders bill.
From NBC's Carrie DannIn a policy address this morning in Bedford, NH,
Giuliani rolled out his list of 12 objectives for America, each with a hefty dose of optimism and an emphasis on metrics and accountability. "Rudy's Twelve Commitments," as titled by the Giuliani press shop, cover ground from the war on terror to school choice and abortion reduction.
VIDEO: MSNBC's Chris Matthews discusses Rudy Giuliani’s commitments
Well, almost 12. Giuliani actually almost forgot to mention No.4 -- tax cuts and tax reform. "How could I skip that one?" he exclaimed, laughing as a gesturing aide offstage reminded him toward the end of his remarks that he'd jumped from Commitment No.3 to Commitment No.5.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark MurrayNew Jersey Sen.
Bob Menendez (D) isn't the only person who's endorsing
Clinton today. Per a source close to her campaign, Clinton will receive an endorsement from
Dina Titus in a conference call later today.
Political junkies will remember that Titus (D) lost to scandal-plagued
Jim Gibbons (R) in last year's gubernatorial contest in Nevada.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Here are Giuliani's "Twelve Commitments," which he is unveiling right now:
I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists' War on Us.
-I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation. -I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.
-I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.
-I will impose accountability on Washington.
-I will lead America towards energy independence.
-I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.
-I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.
-I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.
-I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
-I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.
-I will expand America's involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.
Giuliani's chief policy adviser, Bill Simon (the one-time candidate for Calif. governor) spent the most time on this speech with Giuliani -- but others have also contributed to the speech, including his chief political aides, Tony Carbonetti, Mike DuHaime and Katie Levinson.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** We’re Not In Albania Anymore: In an attempt to resuscitate the near-dead immigration bill, President Bush heads to Capitol Hill today to attend the Senate GOP’s weekly policy lunch. But compared with other legislative battles he’s won in the past -- the Medicare Rx bill, for example -- Bush will have to work some magic to save this bill. He faces an angry base, lower approval ratings, and GOP congressional leaders who don’t seem all that eager to twist arms for him, as DeLay did with that Medicare bill. His only saving grace? Congressional Dems' new lower poll ratings, which may prod them to feel the need to pass something.
*** Rejected! Not surprisingly, Senate Republicans were able to prevent their Democratic counterparts from bringing their "no confidence" vote on Gonzales to the floor. But the cloture vote did reveal the handful of Republicans up for re-election in '08 who are a bit nervous of looking too cozy with the Bush Administration. Norm Coleman, Gordon Smith, John Sununu, and Susan Collins – who all represent so-called blue states and are up for re-election next year -- voted with the Democrats. By the way, the other Republicans to support Democrats were: Chuck Hagel (staying pure for an indie or Dem VP run?), Olympia Snowe (giving Collins cover?), and Arlen Specter (who we thought would vote "not proven"). Lieberman (I) voted with the majority of Republicans.
*** "Here’s … Fred!" In his latest high-profile appearance, Fred Thompson is a guest on the Tonight Show tonight. Anyone else having flashbacks to 2003, when another actor eyeing political office -- Arnold Schwarzenegger -- went on Leno? The difference, of course, is that we didn’t believe Arnold was getting into the race (and he surprised us). Thompson, on the other hand, is pretty much already in.
*** It's Not TV, It's A Political Problem? With half the country in Sopranos withdrawal, does Romney need to worry about HBO viewers getting hooked on "Big Love"? Its second season began last night. And speaking of TV, both Dodd and Richardson are up with new ads in the early states. By the way, with the early TV ads clearly being of help to Richardson and Romney, is it surprising that folks like Obama, Edwards, and McCain haven't ramped up their own advertising? And if/when those candidates go up, how long will Clinton and Giuliani allow their chief rivals to be alone on the airwaves?
*** Endorsement Time: On the heels of a Sunday New York Times story looking at the support she’s getting from Latinos, Clinton picks up an endorsement today from New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D), a Cuban-American who was the Democrats’ most vulnerable Senate incumbent in 2006. Interestingly, Obama campaigned for Menendez three times last year, while Clinton stumped for his once. From our vantage point, though, this announcement isn't about New Jersey; it's about Florida. The Clinton camp, it seems, is obsessed with making Florida’s primary its firewall (if she stumbles in earlier states). However, the DNC has yet to approve of Florida's primary move -- and if it doesn’t, the Clinton might be campaigning in the state by herself.
*** The 12 Commitments: Giuliani comes close to having an official "announcement" today by unveiling his "why me" speech today in New Hampshire. From the campaign just now: Giuliani will unveil his "12 Commitments to the American people" (not quite a contract, but you get the idea). The campaign believes this speech will "frame the discussion moving forward." By the way, of the frontrunners, the only two candidates who have yet to give their grand "why me" speech or their "why I'm running" speech: Clinton and Thompson.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback campaigns in Iowa; Edwards raises money in Austin, TX; Giuliani gives a speech in New Hampshire; and McCain, Obama, Richardson, and Romney all raise money in California. Obama also discusses fuel standards while in LA.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 6 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 13 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 59 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 83 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 129 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 146 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 157 days
Countdown to Iowa: 215 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 236 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 510 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 587 days
NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that the no-confidence vote on Alberto Gonzales failed, 53-38. Sixty votes were needed for the motion to proceed. Senator Stevens (R) voted present. The following seven Republicans voted with ALL Democrats in the symbolic no-confidence vote: Collins, Coleman, Smith, Specter, Hagel, Snowe, and Sununu. (Collins, Coleman, Smith, Hagel, and Sununu are all up Senate re-election in 2008.) Lieberman voted against the resolution with most of the Republicans.
Presidential candidates Biden, Brownback, Dodd, McCain, and Obama didn’t vote on the measure. The AP has the full roll call vote.
The New York Times: “Republicans who rejected the proposal offered little defense of Mr. Gonzales, but criticized the resolution as a politically motivated stunt and a waste of the Senate’s time. ‘If I were president, I would have asked Alberto Gonzales to resign as attorney general,’ George V. Voinovich, Republican of Ohio, said in a statement. But he said, ‘Today’s vote does nothing to rectify the current problem or ensure it doesn’t happen again.’”
The New York Daily News adds, however: “[I]t still forced Republicans into the uncomfortable role of challenging a statement most agreed with: that Gonzales is not competent to be the nation's top lawman.”
CONTINUED >>
In advance of Bush’s Capitol Hill visit, the
Washington Times notes that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has told the president that he “must prove he can deliver more Republican votes before Democrats will put the immigration bill, which collapsed last week, back on the Senate schedule… Reid told Mr. Bush that the only hope for the bill is if he delivers the votes of more than 20 Republican senators to break a filibuster and pass the measure.”
The Politico on Bush and the immigration bill: “In Europe on Monday, President Bush brushed off a question about whether ‘you still have the political clout and capital’ to be effective. Back in Washington, where he'll meet Tuesday with Senate Republicans, it is now clear how much Bush has lost his ability to inspire fear -- not simply with the new Democratic majority but with Republicans who once fell in line promptly with the White House's commands.”
The New York Times writes how the 1986 immigration law is haunting this year’s legislation. “In the current debate, which stalled last week when the latest legislative proposal failed to clear a procedural hurdle, senators of both parties cite the 1986 law as an example of what not to do.”
BROWNBACK: The Des Moines Register covers Brownback’s stumps in Iowa. He reiterated partitioning Iraq and his anti-abortion views.
Per a campaign press release, Brownback today will visit the cancer wing of St. Luke’s Hospital in Cedar Rapids, IA to discuss his plan to end death and suffering from cancer in 10 years.
GIULIANI: Some of the 12 commitments Giuliani will announce in his speech today: be on offense against the terrorists; keep taxes low; focus on energy independence; provide greater access to health care; and insuring every community is prepared for natural disasters and terrorist attacks.
What if the old Giuliani just doesn't exist anymore? That's what this
New York Times article about the renewed relationship Giuliani is seeking with his ex-police commissioner Bill Bratton seems to suggest. Bratton, who was no fan of Giuliani for some time, says he notes a tone change in his old boss. "People who know Mr. Giuliani say that three events — his battle with prostate cancer, his third marriage, to Judith Nathan, and the attacks on Sept. 11 — all of which occurred in a short period, helped mellow him, a notion Mr. Bratton did not disagree with, adding that he had detected some changes in his former boss." ‘We all soften some on the edges,’ Bratton said.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York Times reports on the endorsement that Clinton will receive today from Sen. Bob Menendez.
The Washington Post, meanwhile, confirms through statistical analysis what the CW has assumed: Strong support from women is helping secure Clinton's double-digit lead over Obama in the national polls. No wonder we're seeing so many "Women for Obama" and "Women for Edwards" events.
She is also tapping a growing network for donors: Indian-Americans. "The intense activity reflects a long-standing affinity for Mrs. Clinton on the part of many Indian-Americans, dating back to the state visit she and her husband, President Clinton, made to India in 2000."
And the Boston Herald figured out -- as did others -- that Clinton’s secret to success at the Democratic debate was a really good CNN make-up artist.
CONTINUED >>
There's a little bit of something for everyone in the latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll. Clinton and Giuliani both lead their respective primaries; Thompson has surged into the second slot on the GOP side, with Romney and McCain fighting for third; and Obama, while trailing in the primary by double digits, performs better than Clinton in the general election match-ups.
The Los Angeles Times on McCain's poll standing: "For McCain, the survey pointed to lasting trouble among conservative Republicans: One in four would not vote for him under any circumstances. Their longstanding gripes have included his opposition to President Bush's tax cuts and his backing for efforts — now apparently stalled in Congress — to put illegal immigrants on a path to citizenship."
Will a conservative group end up haunting all the GOP front-runners? The Boston Globe profiles American Freedom Agenda, a group founded by conservative icon Richard Viguerie and others. "They represent what they insist is a growing group of disaffected conservatives who are demanding that the Republican Party return to its traditional mistrust of concentrated government power."
Florida Democrats appear to be gearing up for a fight with the DNC if the national party does not recognize the Jan. 29 primary.
Also in the LA Times/Bloomberg poll, Pelosi gets her first net-negative job rating in any national poll, a reflection of the growing PR problem congressional Democrats have overall since they've taken charge.
Congress' overall job rating is at a 10-year low in this poll. While we don't have access to the crosstabs, it appears Democrats have lost whatever support they were getting with independents. Also, it's likely the Dems' failure to push the Bush Administration toward Iraq withdrawal has made some members of the Democratic base turn sour as well.
Yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid publicly outlined his energy goals for the 110th Congress, by criticized the president’s current energy policy, and vowed to begin debate on a new energy bill sometime this week, NBC’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports. Senate Bill 1419, sponsored solely by Reid, is aimed at moving the United States toward greater energy independence and security with a man-on-the-moon-type call to action that would theoretically put the whole force of American innovation behind the effort to overhaul the country’s energy usage.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The no-confidence vote on Alberto Gonzales failed, 53-38. Sixty votes were needed for the motion to proceed. Senator Stevens (R) voted present.
The following seven Republicans voted with ALL Democrats in the symbolic no-confidence vote: Collins, Coleman, Smith, Specter, Hagel, Snowe, and Sununu. (Collins, Coleman, Smith, Hagel, and Sununu are all up Senate re-election in 2008.)
Lieberman voted against the resolution with most of the Republicans.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Federal Election Commission today revealed its brand new, user friendly money map in two workshop sessions with Washington reporters at the National Press Club. The map goes live on the main page of their Web site tomorrow morning.
The feature graphically sorts in which parts of the country candidates raised the most money and who gave to those candidates. The map shows blue bubbles -- large and small -- which can be scrolled over to reveal which zip codes gave the most money. You can sort by candidate, by party and is just wholly more neatly organized than the previous interface.
This is the latest effort by the FEC to make its store of data more accessible to the general public -- not just data-diving reporters. The new software is the same used by the New York Times -- only a bit cheaper. The Times' campaign finance map has bubbles which expand and contract with a click. But that feature would have been an extra $800,000.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Speaking of Richardson, his campaign is going up with yet another TV advertisement -- this one playing off its widely-played "job interview" ad. In this newest ad, which begins running today in Iowa on broadcast affiliates and cable and which will run later in New Hampshire, Richardson talks about his views on energy and the environment. "Global warming is critical for the next president, and no other state has done as much as New Mexico... I set tough standards to reduce greenhouse emissions. President Bush doesn't follow the Kyoto Treaty, but my state does. I can do all that as president."
The job-interviewer replies to Richardson: "But what I asked you ... was if you were a tree, what kind of tree would you be?"
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Richardson weighed in on Congress’ failure to pass its comprehensive immigration bill today, saying that Democrats can no longer take the Hispanic vote for granted, after some within his party failed to support the legislation. Speaking to reporters in West Hollywood, CA, he credited Bush for “saying the right things” about immigration reform, but criticized his inability to persuade fellow Republicans to support it. He warned of the political repercussions of last week’s stalling in the Senate, saying, “It shows that they're a party that is not interested in a compassionate immigration plan, and I think they'll pay at the polls.” But he also predicted that Democrats might suffer as well -- unless they're more vocal about enacting comprehensive immigration reform.
The New Mexico governor also touted his standing in California’s early presidential primary. He pointed out that -- despite lacking the financial resources that some of his Democratic rivals have -- he has two advantages in California: his environmental record and his Hispanic heritage.
From NBC's Chuck ToddFor those who think
Giuliani is going to end up skipping Iowa, think again. One of our Iowa spies received a live voter ID call from the Giuliani campaign on Friday evening. Here's what the campaign wanted to know
-- Number 1 caucus choice
-- Number 2 caucus choice
-- Anyone they would NOT vote for in the GOP caucus
-- On a scale of 1-10, can you be persuaded to change your mind on your 1st choice.
-- Rank order of importance: are you most concerned with the economy, national security or social/moral issues? And that was the entire call.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate will take a procedural vote at 5:30 pm ET that Democrats will portray as a "no confidence" vote against Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. The vote actually determines whether the Senate can start debating the resolution offered by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) that simply states Gonzales, "no longer holds the confidence of the Senate and the American people"
The vote, called "the motion to proceed," requires 60 to pass. And even if it did pass, which it's not expected to, it would still face additional hurdles before reaching a final vote. This "sense of the Senate" resolution is nonbinding. Before the vote, there will be an hour of debate equally divided between Democrats and Republicans.
Six Republican senators (Sununu, McCain, Coburn, Hagel, Smith, and Coleman) have either called for Gonzales' resignation or said the Department of Justice would be better served without his leadership. (Smith's office disputes any account that says he's called for the AG's firing or resignation.) But at this point, none of the six have voiced support for the resolution. Coburn says he won't; Coleman says it's "politics." McCain is schedule to be in California.
Even though Republican support for Gonzales is scarce in the Senate, GOP Leadership will likely to follow the president's lead by suggesting partisan politics. They'll also point to Schumer's secondary job as the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, the group tasked with getting Democrats elected and re-elected to the Senate.
As a senior GOP leadership aide points out, for all the hype surrounding this vote, Democrats have devoted only one hour of debate.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Obama has been in to see Colin Powell, as Powell confirmed on Meet the Press. However, both Giuliani and McCain have also been in to meet with him to discuss issues. Powell aides say that staff and advisers to Mitt Romney are also in touch with him, and he has discussed foreign policy with Chuck Hagel.
According to a Powell aide, "He meets with any of the candidates who ask to meet with him to discuss issues. But he is not an "adviser" to anyone's campaign."
That said, in replying to NBC's Tim Russert yesterday, Powell pointedly did not rule out for the first time supporting a Democrat -- or even an independent.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
With the news that Colin Powell has advised Obama and that he even suggested he could be open to supporting Obama's presidential bid, that now makes it at least three high-profile Bush aides or campaign strategists who have said that they could support Obama -- or that they like him so much, they're prepared to leave their current job.
In an interview with the New York Times in the spring, in which he said he lost faith in Bush, former Bush-Cheney strategist Matthew Dowd said the only current presidential candidate who appeals to him is Obama.
And last week, we noted that former Bush ad-maker Mark McKinnon -- who's now working for McCain -- said he would leave his job with McCain if Obama wins the Democratic nomination, because he doesn't want to have to run ads against someone he likes so much.
We had some technical difficulties with the blog this morning, and that's why First Read was posted a bit later than usual.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Don’t Stop Believin’: Per the New York Times, Senate Democrats are opening the door to revisiting the stalled immigration bill -- if the Republicans resolve their differences and produce an agreement on how to move forward. Do note that Bush will travel to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to visit with Senate Republicans. But does McCain really want to see a renewed push on immigration this week? Also, don't miss Mel Martinez's citicism of Romney and Giuliani. It's not everyday that the national party chair so publicly chastises two of his own party's presidential front-runners. It's more proof that while the killing of the immigration compromise was bipartisan, this issue is tearing the GOP in two.
*** Powell's New Doctrine: Bipartisanship? Speaking of the party splitting in two, GOP strategists could not have been happy to hear that Colin Powell won't rule out endorsing a presidential candidate from another party. On "Meet The Press," Powell acknowledged that he's met with Obama twice. When pressed whether he would definitely endorse the GOP nominee, Powell said he'd simply back the best candidate, no matter the party.
*** No Confidence-Man? The Senate finally holds its long-awaited no-confidence vote on Alberto Gonzales, but it probably won’t go anywhere. NBC’s Ken trickland says the vote requires 60 to pass. And even if it were to pass -- which it's not expected to -- it would still face additional hurdles before reaching a final vote. Strickland reminds us that this "sense of the Senate" resolution is nonbinding. Still, Senate 2008 watchers will be interested to see which (if any) Republicans vote with the Democrats on this one. In particular, watch Norm Coleman, Susan Collins, Gordon Smith, and John Sununu.
*** “We’re Huge In Belgium”: Err, Albania. Bush had his Matt-Dillon-character-in-‘Singles’ moment yesterday in that country, per the New York Times: “His poll numbers may be in the basement, but when he zipped through this small, relentlessly pro-American nation on Sunday, President Bush was treated like a rock star.”
*** Bring On The Scrutiny: Fred Thompson is getting a taste of what life is like as a candidate. Don't miss the Los Angeles Times examination of the company Thompson is serving as radio pitchman for the rest of this month. How uneasy are Thompson's folks with this company? So uneasy that the fledgling campaign noted that Thompson didn't choose the company -- but rather the company chose ABC radio and Thompson's contract forced him to do it.
*** On The Trail: Brownback makes four stops in Iowa; Edwards raises money at The Rusty Pelican in the very chic Key Biscayne in Miami; Huckabee hits the radio waves and also appears on Hardball; and McCain, Obama, Richardson, Romney and Fred Thompson are all in California.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 7 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 14 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 60 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 84 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 130 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 147 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 158 days
Countdown to Iowa: 216 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 237 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 511 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 588 days
Are you saying there’s a chance? The New York Times reports, “Senate Democrats opened the door to reviving the stalled immigration measure on Sunday, calling on Republicans to resolve their internal divisions and produce an agreement on how to move the legislation forward. With Bush administration officials and Republican authors of the overhaul saying they had not given up on the bill, the spokesman for Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, said Mr. Reid would be willing to try again if Republicans agreed to a defined number of amendments and a time limit on debate.”
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Times says: “Calling the measure ‘alive and well,’ the administration blamed the Democratic Senate leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, for prematurely abandoning efforts to get the bill passed, and said President Bush would go to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to lobby for the legislation. ‘Rather than doing finger-pointing, if Harry Reid is committed to this — and this is an historic bill dealing with a problem that a lot of people think has to be solved, and it's got to be solved in a smart way — why not go ahead and set aside those two days for debate?’
White House spokesman Tony Snow said on ‘Fox News Sunday.’ ‘I think you're going to find the Republicans and Democrats are willing to do it.’”
Bush is going to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to lobby for the legislation.
The Sunday New York Times pinned the death of the compromise legislation on the conservative grassroots.
GIULIANI: The Washington Post got its hands on the list of 97 fundraising bundlers working on behalf of the Giuliani campaign. The Post identified 11 of the 97 who were Bush Rangers/Pioneers. Is that a lot or surprisingly small number? More proof that there are a significant number of Bush Rangers/Pioneers sitting on the sidelines, ready to kick the tires on all four supposed front-runners?
In a story we're likely to see quite a bit this year, the Sunday Washington Post examined Giuliani's poor relations with black New Yorkers, despite the fact that Giuliani oversaw a Harlem renaissance.
HUCKABEE: The former Arkansas governor’s solid debate performances are getting him a second round of profile coverage. McClatchy's Thomma tries to figure out why Huckabee hasn't become THE Christian conservative candidate. "He talks passionately about the morality of helping parents send their children to college, the need to observe the golden rule in handling Katrina refugees mistreated by an uncaring federal government, and the immorality of corporate chief executive officers getting multimillion-dollar bonuses while taking pensions and jobs away from workers. Hardly the stuff that gets a candidate airtime on right-wing talk shows or the backing of televangelists. In fact, it can sound like something a Democrat might say. That might help explain why Huckabee hasn't caught fire with the party's social conservatives and is trailing better-known candidates in polls and fundraising. His invisibility in national news media is another factor."
The AP says Huckabee might reconsider participating in the Iowa straw poll.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Over the weekend, the Las Vegas Review-Journal covered Biden stumping though Vegas and courting the Culinary Workers local there. “‘I have the best labor record of anybody running from either party,’ the Delaware senator told a group of union members at their headquarters in downtown Las Vegas. ‘I also come from the biggest corporate state in America, and I say the same thing to the corporate people.’”
CLINTON: The New York senator was in Iowa on Saturday (as was Obama and plenty of other oh-eighters). She continues to lump herself in with the rest of the field, and putting herself in a position to speak for the field. The Des Moines Register. "Clinton said Saturday that she and other Democratic senators are frustrated in their attempts to force President Bush to remove American troops from Iraq. Clinton, who spoke to several hundred people here, noted that Congress passed a bill with a withdrawal deadline earlier this year, but Bush vetoed it."
Clinton was also in Detroit over the weekend, where she told workers the US needs to invest more in manufacturing.
CONTINUED >>
The AP writes, “The anti-poverty campaign of U2 frontman Bono is promoting a $30 million effort to pressure Republican and Democratic presidential candidates to make the oft-forgotten issue a priority. Dubbed ONE Vote '08, the bipartisan political push aims to get President Bush's successor to commit to taking concrete steps in the first 100 days to combat hunger and disease while improving access to education and water across the globe.”
If Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5 primary day) ends up mattering, the Sunday New York Times noted that Hispanics will be a key constituency for the Democratic campaigns to court.
The Los Angeles Times looked at the early-voting conundrum facing candidates who want to win the Feb. 5 California primary. Early voting would begin well before any of the early states begin voting, but if history holds: only 1 in 5 California voters will vote that early. So how much money does a campaign allocate to bank votes from folks who are likely supporting them no matter what?
Albania.... Albania... it borders on the Adriatic... (Sorry, we couldn't help ourselves; we love "Cheers"). The New York Times on Bush’s visit to Albania yesterday: “His poll numbers may be in the basement, but when he zipped through this small, relentlessly pro-American nation on Sunday, President Bush was treated like a rock star.”
Meanwhile, how bad are things at the White House? Bad enough that the counsel's office felt the need to hire nine new lawyers.
In advance of today’s no-confidence vote, Sen. Chuck Schumer told the New York Daily News that any other president would have dismissed Attorney General Alberto Gonzales already.
The AP: “The White House on Sunday dismissed Senate plans to hold a no-confidence vote on the attorney general and said the outcome will not undermine President Bush's resolve to keep Alberto Gonzales at the Justice Department. ‘Not a bit. Purely symbolic vote,’ presidential spokesman Tony Snow said.”
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumIn Pella, Iowa today,
McCain gave some straight talk about his stance on issues varying from immigration and Iraq to abortion and same-sex marriage. On immigration, McCain was not happy. "We rejected the proposal for immigration reform. Of course, as you know, as one of the supporters of reform, I was disappointed that that happened. But I respect the process and and I respect the views of those who disagree." He continued, "Americans are very frustrated at our lack of enforcing our borders. It's a national security requirement... We failed yesterday to move forward." McCain said, as an Arizona senator, he is personally touched by the issue and hoped the senate would reconsider comprehensive immigration reform soon, even though he recognized that might not happen.
There were several veterans in the front row, as well as throughout the audience of the town hall. And the veterans expressed their support for McCain's position on the war, applauding him loudly. "You don't defeat insurgencies by going in, killing people and leaving. You defeat insurgencies by going in, defeating the bad people and staying and providing an environment of security."
A woman in the audience pressured McCain for his stance on abortion and same-sex marriage -- the woman staunchly opposes both. On abortion, McCain's response satisfied the woman. "I have a consistent 24 year record of pro-life, voting record. If you look at my voting record and that's more important than my rhetoric, I have always respected and done everything I can to preserve the innocent life of the unborn." But on same-sex marriage, she continued to pressure him, asking him if he will totter on the issue. "I very seldom totter, maybe dodder, I hope not. I have done everything that I can to preserve the unique status of marriage between man and woman." But, he defended his decision to not vote for an amendment to the constitution. "If you want to make it happen, you would have to change the constitution of the United States, which would require a constitutional amendment. I don't like to do that; I'm a federalist. I like for the states to make decisions on matters within their own states."
From NBC's Mark Murray
In the the aftermath of this week's presidential debates in New Hampshire, Clinton and Romney come out on top in a new Mason-Dixon poll of likely primary voters there. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton leads Obama, 26%-21%, with Edwards at 18%, Richardson at 9%, and Biden at 6%; no other Democratic presidential contender gets more than 1%.
Among likely GOP primary voters, Romney leads McCain, 27%-16%, followed by Giuliani at 15%, Fred Thompson at 12%, and Huckabee at 5%.
The Mason-Dixon poll -- which was given exclusively to NBC and MSNBC -- was taken June 4-7, 2007, and the Dem field has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%, and the GOP field has a margin of error of +/- 5.3%.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate will take a procedural vote Monday afternoon that Democrats will call a "no confidence" vote on Attorney General
Alberto Gonzales. The vote essentially determines whether the Senate can take up and debate the resolution offered by Sen.
Chuck Schumer (D) that simply states Gonzales, "no longer holds the confidence of the Senate and the American people"
This vote, called "the motion to proceed," requires 60 to pass. And even if it were to pass -- which it's not expected to -- it would still face additional hurdles before reaching a final vote. This "sense of the Senate" resolution is nonbinding. Before the vote, which is scheduled for 5:30 pm ET, there will be an hour of debate equally divided between Democrats and Republicans.
Six Republican senators (Sununu, McCain, Coburn, Hagel, Smith, and Coleman) have either called for Gonzales' resignation or said the Department of Justice would be better served without his leadership. (Smith's office disputes any account that says he's called for the AG's firing or resignation.) But at this point, none of the six has voiced support for the resolution. Coburn says he won't; Coleman says it's "politics." McCain is scheduled to be in California. CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's a snapshot of the statements we received from the presidential candidates after the Senate immigration bill stalled last night. The Clinton and McCain folks told us they didn't issue a statement.
Biden: "Our immigration system is broken and we have an obligation to work on it until we fix it. The immigration bill isn't perfect, but it's an important step forward. To be honest, there are many things I don't like about it such as the temporary worker program and a green card system that overemphasizes wealth and devalues family ties. But we owe it to the people we serve to work through our differences and ultimately resolve this problem. That's why I voted to keep working on the bill - this issue is too important to just quit on."
Dodd: "I am gravely disappointed that comprehensive immigration reform has again been put off, and at the tenor with which the debate was conducted. The failure of this bill was in part due to the divisiveness that has been sewn into the American political fabric over the last six years. We need to restore leadership that can bring people together to get things done."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Democratic political strategist Bob Shrum -- who’s new book "No Excuses: Concessions of a Serial Campaigner" is out on shelves -- spoke to about two dozen reporters at the Christian Science Monitor's newsmakers breakfast held at the swanky Sofitel Lafayette Square Square Hotel in downtown Washington.
First Read sat in on the talk. Shrum told the group that he didn’t understand why -- months ago --
Clinton didn’t just say her vote on the war was a mistake; that there’s a great “desire for change” she’s running up against, which, in part, is fueling
Obama. He said
Edwards is “in the
Gephardt trap” -- that it’s all about Iowa.
On the Republican side, he’d bet against
Giuliani being the GOP nominee. But if he did win, Shrum said, it would “transform the political landscape,” because you’d have a pro-choice Republican. His bet is on
McCain for the nomination; and said
Romney is “so inauthentic -- he’s like a zip drive in which you could put any disk."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Carl Bernstein's biography of
Hillary Clinton, "A Woman in Charge," was released earlier this week. The book itself is more than 600 pages long, so we thought we would give you some highlights.
While some have portrayed it as an anti-Hillary book -- and it does contain plenty of information for opposition researchers, both Democratic and Republican -- it's really not. Instead, it's a chronicle of her marriage and career with
Bill Clinton. Bernstein shows how Bill's infidelity pushed Hillary away but also drew her closer to him, as she refused to let him go through all his various affairs, and she used it as inspiration for own political career.
Neither Bill nor Hillary Clinton ever accepted an interview with Bernstein, who began working on the book in 1999. Therefore, the book uses many personal accounts from close friends and advisors, as well as anonymous sources who had worked with the Clintons in Arkansas or the White House. Since he could not use words directly from Hillary or Bill, Bernstein extensively quoted and referred to Hillary's own books "It Takes a Village" and "Living History." Bernstein characterizes Hillary as a strong and independent woman, but he implies she is weaker than people know -- asserting, like her mother, that she was afraid to be alone, preventing her from ever seriously considering a divorce from Bill. While she resisted changing her maiden name, even to the detriment of Bill's political career, she saw her husband as a tool to achieve her greatness.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?: Yes, we’re going to lead with Paris Hilton, but with a twist. Polls showing that strong majorities believe the country is on the wrong track can’t be attributed to just Iraq, bickering on Capitol Hill, and frustration with the immigration system. At least to us, there also seems to be loss in faith in American institutions -- whether it’s the executive branch (which wasn’t able to manage the aftermath of a war and a hurricane), the Congress (whose members are being indicted and thrown into jail), business (in which CEOs are bilking their companies and shareholders), sports (where athletes are doping), the legal system (which allows rich heiresses to leave jail early), religious institutions (whose leaders have gotten caught up in sex scandals) and, of course, the press. None of this is new, but can that faith be restored? Is there a presidential candidate who can do it or at least simply address this? That's been the surprise of the campaign so far, the lack of any candidate attempting to address larger crisis in leadership.
 |
|
***
Stopped At The Border: At the beginning of the year, passing an immigration bill seemed more than possible. The Senate, which approved the bill last year with 62 votes, had six new Democratic members. The House, which had blocked it, was now in Democratic hands. And passing the legislation would have given Bush his biggest second-term domestic accomplishment. But unless Harry Reid is able to pull a rabbit out of his hat, the bill doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. While GOP efforts to campaign against “amnesty” in last year’s midterms didn’t work in keeping control of Congress -- and certainly didn’t help them with the Hispanic vote -- they seem to have deep-sixed this legislation. Oddly enough, the shelving of the immigration bill could actually help McCain. The less the issue is brought up, the better for McCain ... for now.
***
A Long-Term Media Problem? Speaking of McCain, today's coverage in the Post of his campaign losing a fundraiser to Fred Thompson used words like "struggling.” The media is ready to pounce on McCain for some reason. He seems to have less room for error than the other three GOP front-runners. He can't miss a fundraising goal or drop too dramatically in polls if he doesn't want to see others using the word "struggling.” There's a feeding frenzy waiting in the wings, even after his solid performance in Tuesday’s debate.
***
Not A Good Day For Obama: A high-profile clip in the Los Angeles Times says Hollywood's financial love affair with Obama is a "passing fancy." Couple that with the campaign's decision to dump yet MORE Rezko related money. (It's the fourth time that the campaign has shed Rezko cash.)
*** Iowa, You Complete Me: Two days after his campaign announced that it would not participate in the Ames straw poll, McCain travels through -- you guessed it -- Iowa. It brings back memories of when Clinton stumped there immediately after that campaign memo arguing that she skip Iowa got leaked to the press. No matter the challenges the Hawkeye State might pose to the front-runners, they keep coming back. Also today, Brownback holds a presser in Ames to announce his decision if he’s going to participate.
***
On The Trail: Elsewhere, Clinton (if her Senate schedule allows it) attends a summit on Latino issues in the Bronx; Dodd is in New York City delivering the commencement address for Cardozo Law School; Edwards makes three stops in New Hampshire, including hosting a town hall meeting; Giuliani is in St. Louis; Obama hosts an “After Hours with Barack and Michelle Obama” fundraiser in Chicago; Richardson raises money in Colorado and New Mexico; and Tancredo is in Iowa.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 10 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 17 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 63 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 87 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 133 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 150 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 161 days
Countdown to Iowa: 219 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 241 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 514 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 591 days
NBC’s Ken Strickland says that the Senate last night failed to meet to the 60-vote threshold to limit debate and put the comprehensive immigration bill on a path to final passage.
Per Strick, the Republicans voting FOR cloture: Graham, Hagel, Lugar, Martinez, McCain, Voinovich, Specter
Democratic voting AGAINST: Baucus, Bingaman, Boxer, Byrd, Dorgan, Landrieu, McCaskill, Pryor, Rockefeller, Tester, Webb
Independents: Lieberman voted for cloture; Sanders voted against
Not voting: Brownback, Coburn, Enzi, Johnson, (Thomas)
The Boston Globe writes that last night’s vote delivered “a heavy blow to President Bush” and greatly diminishes “the chances of resolving the politically loaded issue before the 2008 elections.”
The New York Times: “The outcome, which followed an outpouring of criticism of the measure from core Republican voters and from liberal Democrats as well, was a significant setback for the president. It came mainly at the hands of members of his own party after he championed the proposal in the hope of claiming it as a major domestic policy achievement in the last months of his administration.”
CONTINUED >>
In his latest National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook looks at recent polling showing that the approval rating for congressional Democrats has dropped and asks: "Did [they] make a mistake by switching to a more cautious approach, passing a war funding bill with no strings...?" He answers, "Democrats would have run the risk of being portrayed as leaving U.S. troops in the field without adequate resources once the current spending bill expired."
Cook adds, "In short, Democratic leaders have opted for short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain. Anti-war forces are upset that the Democratic Party is not storming the ramparts every week. However, in November 2008, anti-war voters are very unlikely to defect to the GOP, stay home, or participate in another narcissistic exercise like backing Ralph Nader. That didn't work so well for them in 2000."
The Los Angeles Times identifies a handful of GOP senators who are looking for various Iraq bills that separate themselves from Bush. Mentioned in the piece: Brownback (Kansas), Gordon Smith (Ore.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Judd Gregg (N.H.) and Bob Bennett (Utah).
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Paging David Geffen... Check out this lead in the Los Angeles Times today: "It's starting to look like Hollywood's infatuation with Sen. Barack Obama was just a flirtation before it settles down with its longtime girlfriend, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton… So here's the buzz these days: Clinton's presidential bid has begun to regain momentum over Obama's in the entertainment industry. In fact, it's become so strong that Steven Spielberg, once considered a solid supporter of Illinois Democrat Obama, is now believed to be leaning in favor of Clinton, according to longtime industry politicos. (Spielberg's political spokesman, Andy Spahn, was coy this week when asked about Spielberg's political thinking. "We have nothing to announce," Spahn said, but stay tuned.) But behind the scenes, the signs are pretty clear. Last week, Clinton cruised through town raising a cool $1.1 million in one day.
The
LA Times’ Brownstein writes how Democrats are beginning to re-fight some of Bill Clinton’s losing battles. "On a lengthening list of issues, the Democratic contenders are reopening political fights that Bill Clinton, during his presidency, either lost or dodged after concluding that he could not win. That may prove shrewd—or reckless. But it reflects a clear conviction among Democratic leaders that the political landscape has tilted toward them on a number of difficult issues since Clinton left the White House—in part because of discontent over the decisions of his successor, George W. Bush."
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: Still optimistic. In a
conference call with Kansas media, Brownback was asked about his missed Senate votes. “What I am trying to do is balance the work back and forth. Being in the U.S. Senate, being on the campaign trail, I’m trying to do the best I can,” Brownback said. He also "insisted his presidential bid was going well and again called himself the “tortoise in the race.” “It’s not a national race. It’s a race through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, so the effort is targeted and focused most in those areas,” Brownback said of the early caucus and primaries.
GIULIANI: Campaign communications director Katie Levinson issued this statement on Edwards’ shot at Giuliani yesterday: "We are glad to see Rudy's criticism of the Democrats not understanding the terrorists' war on us is starting to register with them. John Edwards' track record of predicting election outcomes speaks for itself.”
Last night, Giuliani received the first Fred V. Morrone Memorial Award, an award closely linked to 9/11 from the International Association of Airport and Seaport Police. Per NBC's Lauren Appelbaum, he received a standing ovation, and the police remained standing while Chief Russell Whitmarsh presented the award to Giuliani. To the port police, Giuliani said, "you are the front line of our defense." He received a thunderous applause after stating, "If Washington has money to build a bridge to nowhere, then truly Washington can find money to help you do your jobs."
CONTINUED >>
Sen. Tim Johnson (D) is expected to be
back full-time in the Senate by September -- if not sooner -- said Harry Reid yesterday.
Also, the “House gave final Congressional approval on Thursday to legislation aimed at easing restrictions on federal financing of embryonic stem cell research, but Democratic leaders in both chambers conceded they were short of the votes needed to override a veto threatened by President Bush,” the New York Times says.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carly Zakin
First Read listened in on an over-the-phone pep rally of sorts that Obama gave to about 400 volunteers. They will be going door-to-door for the senator this Saturday in what his campaign is calling, “Walk for Change.” The campaign says more than 10,000 have signed up for the walk, and Obama says it’s the largest grassroots canvassing effort in history.
“As tempting as it might be to think otherwise, this doesn’t just have to do with me,” said Obama, who noted that he too was once a community organizer on the south side of Chicago. “Change always comes from the bottom up not the top down. It starts with people like you who are foot soldiers for a better world.”
The largest number of volunteers will be in Iowa. About 2,400 will be going door to door in the Hawkeye state – 800 of those volunteers are from Chicago. There will be about 450 walking in South Carolina, 300 in New Hampshire, 500 in the Bay Area in California and 200 in Atlanta, according to the campaign.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Well, kind of ... After
Edwards delivered a national security speech today, reporters asked him about ...
Paris Hilton! Although he declined to comment on the heiress’s abbreviated incarceration, he did draw a parallel to his “Two Americas” stump speech about poverty. Citing statistics on income disparity, he said, “That gap's not healthy. It's not healthy for our economy, it's not healthy for our democracy, and I think we need to do something about it -- without regard to Paris Hilton.”
In his speech, Edwards repeated his assertion that the “War on Terror” is nothing more than a political slogan, saying: “There's been a great deal of high-level rhetoric and not a serious discussion of what steps have to be taken to keep this country safe.” Explaining what he would do differently than the Bush Administration, he called for a more direct line of communication between the president and military leadership, with less filtering through civilian officials.
Speaking with reporters after his short speech, Edwards reiterated that he does not believe the country is safer from terrorism than it was before 9/11. He went on to distinguish himself from Democratic presidential opponent Hillary Clinton, saying: “ I also do not believe that we should be embracing essentially what the Bush Administration is saying -- when they say that America is safer.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
In the latest effort by a state to increase its significance in the presidential nominating process, West Virginia Republicans held a conference call with reporters earlier today to discuss their brand-new presidential convention, which will be held on Tsunami Tuesday, February 5, 2008. The hook is that the results of the winner-take-all convention will be known by 4:00 pm ET that day at the latest -- meaning it will be the first of the 20-odd Tsunami Tuesday states to report its results. “It will be something that will be interesting to people in West Virginia,” said Robert Fish, CEO of the state’s presidential convention.
West Virginia Republicans still plan to keep their May 13 primary, which will decide the district delegates to the 2008 Republican National Convention. But the February 5 state convention will determine the at-large delegates. And that process begins with online voting that begins on January 1, making it -- possibly -- the first state to begin voting in the presidential nominating contest. People who don’t wish to vote online can attend a meeting in their county, and a combination of those votes will determine the number of delegates sent to the February 5 convention.
The GOP presidential candidate who receives a majority of support from the delegates at the state convention will capture all of the state’s at-large delegates.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Even after it failed this morning, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid says there will be an identical procedural vote later today on the immigration reform bill. That vote, which requires 60 for passage, would limit debate and amendments and put the bill on the path to a final vote. It failed earlier 33-63, with all the Republicans and about a third of Democrats voting against Reid.
Moments ago in a off-camera briefing, Reid said if the vote failed again he'd pull the bill from the floor indefinitely saying, "the bill's over with. The bill's gone." He never said it was dead, but indicated he clearly had other priorities to put before the Senate in the coming weeks.
The main conflict between Reid and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell comes down to this: McConnell wants members to have more votes on their amendments to change the bill; Reid says they've already had plenty and would be given more opportunities after the procedural vote.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
Wyoming's US attorney has stepped down, apparently to clear the way for him to be considered a replacement for Sen. Craig Thomas, who died on Monday.
Matthew Mead's announcement says, "Mead was born and raised in Jackson, WY. He has a family ranching background and a Wyoming ranching operation, to which he now returns." He's been US attorney since October 2001.
Mead is the grandson of former Wyoming GOP Sen. Cliff Hansen, and he is close to Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D), who will select Thomas' replacement from a list of three nominees assembled by the state Republican party. Mead was an assistant US attorney when Freudenthal was the US attorney in Wyoming.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
John McIntyre, the president and co-founder of RealClearPolitics, takes Giuliani's decision to skip the Ames straw poll a couple of steps further. "What is interesting in this development is whether this is a precursor to Giuliani skipping Iowa entirely. Far-fetched maybe, and the Giuliani campaign has given no indication this is something they are considering, but I would not rule it out entirely."
And then there's this: "What happens if Rudy and Hillary decide they don't want to play in Iowa because they are busy working on racking up truckloads of delegates in California, New York, Illinois, Florida and Pennsylvania? Why give their competition an opportunity to best them in a caucus format that may not work to their advantage if they don't have to? How important might Iowa be if the leading national front-runners in each party decide to skip it?"
These are interesting questions...
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Your US House is now debating legislation that would allow federal funding for stem cell research. Final passage is expected to occur at about 1:30 pm ET. Today's debate and vote will be the final congressional action. The measure will be sent forthwith to the president, and it's expected to be met with a veto. The House is not expected to have the votes to override when that time comes a few days or weeks from now.
Democratic leaders will stage one of those pseudo-signing ceremonies -- known in congressional-ese as "enrollment" -- at 3:30 pm. This is where the Speaker and the president pro tempore of the Senate sign the thing and send it on it's way, in this instance, to a certain death.
(Democratic leaders are acting with much more alacrity than they did with the war-funding bill that contained timelines. Recall that Dems could not seem to get the wheels in motion for that enrollment for some five days after the bill passed Congress, when the day of the signing just happened to coincide with the anniversary of Bush's "Mission Accomplished.")
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate is now voting on the procedural vote that may determine the fate of the immigration bill. All signs point to the bill FAILING to get the 60 votes needed to proceed.
Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid has previously said he'd pull the bill from the floor if he doesn't get 60 votes, saying there's been ample time to debate and vote on this bill -- and that he's got an ambitious legislative schedule ahead.
But today Reid says he'll allow more votes for GOP amendments and try the procedural vote again later in the day. But so far, Republicans aren't playing ball. The GOP leadership's response is -- unless we get votes on the amendments our members want, they will give Reid the votes he needs to finish this bill.
The bill that we previously described as in "serious condition," but not yet dead is going into emergency surgery. Stay tuned.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Newsweek's political blog reported yesterday that Bush ad-maker Mark McKinnon -- who is serving as a senior adviser to McCain's campaign -- says he will quit the McCain camp if Obama wins the Democratic nomination. "[H]e felt that the Illinois senator--as an African-American politician--has a unique potential to change the country. Therefore, McKinnon argued, he wanted no part in any efforts to tear down Obama's candidacy."
This isn't the first time a former top Bush campaign operative has said nice things about Obama. Remember that Matthew Dowd, in that New York Times interview in which he criticized Bush and his presidency, said that the only oh-eighter he could think of supporting is Obama.
McKinnon tells First Read that he cannot "demand a retraction" on the Newsweek report, but he wants to make clear that under a scenario of Obama vs McCain, "I would still be 100% supporting John McCain."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The Iraq debate/forum
Joe Biden wanted so badly finally came to fruition ... and Biden was busy in the Senate with the immigration vote. At 8:00 pm, when the event was supposed to start, only former Sen.
Mike Gravel -- who called himself the "crazy uncle who hasn't come down from the attic in six years" -- was in attendance. Fewer than 500 people were in the audience, but Gravel was surely happy with the opportunity to address them. "This is an experience for me. I get more than five minutes.”
Both he and Kucinich -- who showed up later -- took jabs at some of the other Democratic candidates. Gravel once again attacked "the senator from New York" for saying had she known then what she knew now, she would not have voted for the war. Gravel said if someone couldn't tell Bush was lying back then, the person does not have the right to become president. Kucinich added that all the candidates in Congress had an audition in October of 2002. "It was a moment of real peril and crisis in our country to exercise our foresight and judgment to share with the world."
Biden arrived shortly before 9:30 pm, and he received a thunderous applause. He had a short time to talk, since there were nine votes on the immigration issue scheduled for 10:00 pm. He talked about his plan for Iraq: "I have put forward a comprehensive strategy to end the war, my word, responsibly. It has three parts: a roadmap to bring most of our troops home next year; a detailed plan for what we leave behind; and a commitment that, so long as a single American soldier remains in Iraq, we will do everything in our power to protect him or her." Biden was the best received, and it was clear people stuck around to specifically hear him. He was in his element, talking to knowledgeable people about a subject he wanted to discuss.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
***
Time To Cancel Those Hotel Rooms In Ames: Two months before it was supposed to take place, the Ames straw poll is all but over. After the Giuliani camp opted out, followed by Team McCain, the Romney folks declared victory. “Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa,” said a Romney spokesman. "It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them." The second-tier candidates could end up being the real losers here: Both Huckabee and Tommy Thompson were hoping to turn a surprising straw poll finish into a jump start for their fledgling campaigns.
*** Ames Higher: The campaigns are secretly ecstatic that they won’t have to spend so much money winning an event that does nothing for them on the delegate front. Even Romney's campaign, while disappointed they won't get the credit for the Ames straw poll win, is probably happy they'll save a few million when all is said and done. One thing we did learn about the GOP race, though, is that Giuliani is in some ways more the front-runner on the GOP side than Clinton is on the Democratic side. Why? Because Giuliani's decision dictated McCain’s. Contrast that with the way Obama seems to be dictating the pace on the Dem side, despite the fact he's behind in the polls. By the way, don't read into Rudy's decision as having anything to do with Tsunami Tuesday on Feb. 5 (sorry Iowa haters). This was simply about denying Romney an August momentum booster shot. CONTINUED >>
Yesterday, both the Giuliani and McCain campaigns announced they wouldn’t be participating in the Ames straw poll. The Des Moines Register: "No candidate in the straw poll's nearly 30 year history has bypassed the event and won the caucuses." But with three of the four front-runners out, this streak could be broken.
The
New York Times sees the decision by Giuliani and McCain to skip the straw poll as having to do with the changing primary calendar. "Their decision was the clearest indication of how much the changing primary calendar is upending presidential politics this year, as candidates grapple with the prospect of huge primaries in crucial states like Florida on Jan. 29 and California, New York and Texas a week later."
CONTINUED >>
This morning, the White House-backed Senate immigration bill faces its toughest and most crucial vote so far, after suffering what could be deal-breaking setback late last night, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. At 11:00 am, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has scheduled a procedural vote that would end debate and limit votes on amendments to the bill. Sixty votes are required and would put the bill on the path to final passage. But as of late last night, the prognosis was grim.
 |
|
Adding to the growing pessimism was last night's passage of an amendment -- by a single vote --that guts one of the core components of the legislation. The measure, authored by Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan, ends the temporary guest-worker program after five years. The program, which the Senate had earlier voted to cut in half from it's original goal of 400,000 workers a year, is considered one of the cornerstones of the legislation. Some members of the bipartisan coalition that drafted the bill said they'd withdraw their support if any of the key elements of the bill were undermined.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The legend of Teresa Vilmain is growing thanks to a front-page Washington Post story today. Is she an Iowa miracle worker? Clinton hopes so.
The New York Post writes, “Clinton is on pace to smash presidential fund-raising records with a $27 million second-quarter haul… But rival Barack Obama is likely to raise even more.”
That said, the
New York Times has a piece that could help tamp down Clinton money expectations. The piece is based on this leaked document from the Clinton campaign.
CONTINUED >>
GINGRICH: So has Fred Thompson's entrance had an effect on the rest of the field? Well, Gingrich is now giving pretty good odds on the idea that he will NOT run. This is a change in Gingrich's rhetoric over the past few months, when he sounded much more like a candidate.
GIULIANI: The Wall Street Journal previews Giuliani's health-care plan. The release of the plan will be one of the first times since Giuliani announced that the issue focus of his bid will be something other than national security. "The principles Mr. Giuliani identified for health care mirror President Bush's call for an ‘ownership society’ in which the power of the free market could eventually shore up health and retirement security programs alike. That concept proved a political failure when Mr. Bush used it in 2005 to argue for partial privatization of Social Security. But in the campaign to woo Republican primary voters, it could provide Mr. Giuliani with an issue to appeal to economic conservatives at a time when some social conservatives have misgivings about his support for abortion rights and gun control."
CONTINUED >>
The West Virginia GOP will hold a convention -- rather than a primary -- on February 5, 2008, and the results will be released in the middle of the day in an effort to make the state a bigger player on Tsunami Tuesday. This morning, the West Virginia Republican Presidential Convention, Inc. has a conference call with reporters to discuss the details of the convention.
Nevada Democrats begin holding their mock caucuses today in Carson City, NV. They hold them on Friday in Tahoe and on Saturday in Reno.
California moved one step closer to putting a non-binding ballot initiative on the February 5 ballot that would ask voters whether they want to withdraw troops from Iraq. Some Republicans believe this is a ploy by state Democrats to boost turnout so that another ballot measure that would partially repeal some term limits laws would also get enacted. Gov. Schwarzenegger has not yet indicated whether he'll agree to sign the bill that would make this initiative a reality.
CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times looks at the awkward political problem a potential Libby pardon is posing for the GOP presidential hopefuls. This piece notes that Giuliani’s possible support of a pardon is actually a change from his views on perjury and obstruction of justice charges in the past.
A New York Times does a damned-if-does-damned-if-he-doesn’t piece on Bush and a Libby pardon.
The New York Times also writes about an earmark that Alaska Rep. Don Young (R) inserted in the 2006 transportation bill, which ended up benefiting a person who helped Young raise $40,000 just days before he introduced the measure.
Fellow Alaskan Sen. Ted Stevens disclosed in an interview that the FBI "asked him to preserve records as part of a widening investigation into Alaskan political corruption that has touched his son and ensnared one of his closest political confidants and financial backers." Stevens' son is the primary target of the probe but there has been some speculation this could hurt Stevens' chances for re-election in 2008, even in the VERY Republican Alaska. That said, Stevens is probably more likely to retire than he is to lose a re-election bid.
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira and Domenico Montanaro
Republican members of the House are taking on the president over the use of the word "amnesty" after Bush recently accused them of using it to frighten people. "He'd rather disparage the motives than look at the cost," says GOP Rep. Ed Royce. "What is frightening people is the administration's mismanagement of immigration."
Royce appeared with fellow GOP Rep. Steve King to unveil a series of TV/Internet spots aimed at fellow Republicans who back the Senate compromise. The ads -- put together by a group called Grassfire.org -- are entitled, "Where's the Fence?" and are intended to "'pin' the amnesty label to key senators like Kyl, McCain, Brownback, Burr, Lott, Isakson, and Chambliss," all Republicans who back the Senate bill to varying degrees, according to a press release by the group.
The title is a reference to the fact that but 12 miles of the 700-800 miles of fencing authorized by Congress has been built, according to Republicans. The group spent more than $150,000 on the ad, which will run nationally today through Friday and afterward regionally on cable stations in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Kansas, Virginia, Texas, and Mississippi.
“Our lawmakers have cast us aside -- the citizens of the United States -- in favor of an amnesty bill that would be a fiasco for the middle class,” said Ron De Jong, a Grassfire.org spokesman. “We thought in a humorous way, this carried a serious message.”
De Jong said the group is most up in arms about Kyl and Chambliss, who he said “historically have been against amnesty. What’s changed?”
From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC's Tim Russert just called to report that John McCain will also NOT participate in the Ames straw poll in August.
Earlier today, the Giuliani camp announced that it would not be participating.
This leaves Romney as sole current GOP front-runner who will most likely participate -- and thus possibly diminishes the importance of the straw poll.
*** Update*** Here's the statement that McCain campaign manager Terry Nelson just issued: "In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event."
From NBC's Mark MurrayThe
Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reports that Tim Griffin -- a familiar name to First Readers -- is joining Fred Thompson's campaign. Griffin, Ambinder writes, is the "former RNC research whiz and Army JAG prosecutor who served, briefly, as a U.S. Attorney in the second district in Arkansas."
From NBC's Carly Zakin
We got our hands on an upcoming New York Times magazine cover story examining Edwards and his poverty platform. Some highlights of the piece:
-- “What stands out the most about Edwards’s antipoverty ideas is their familiarity. It’s as if he has taken most of the proposals that have been talked about in policy groups and at university forums since the 1990s and thrown them all together into one comprehensive and expensive package. The individual proposals themselves, far from being radical or populist, basically sound — there’s no other way to put it — Clintonian”... “Exiling oneself from Washington and being subsequently reborn as a more candid and compassionate politician is an old and popular plotline in Democratic politics. Robert Kennedy built his legend on the same idea in the mid-1960s… Edwards clearly sees himself in this vein.”
-- Edwards commitment to the issue of poverty has made his “campaign [feel] oddly inverted. There’s no doubt he wants very badly to win, and yet there are times when the entire campaign seems little more than an excuse for him to talk about the issue with which he is now most closely identified: the case for the 37 million Americans living in poverty. Everything else in the campaign, Edwards seem to think, all these carefully orchestrated photo ops and drop-bys and van rides with the media, is the kind of empty political theater from which he declared himself liberated after his last presidential run. He gives the impression that he simply endures it.”
-- “In 2004, Edwards running as the unflappable optimist in the Democratic primaries, wrote an inspiring book about his days as a plaintiff’s lawyer; this time, his unusual entry into the now-standard field of campaign books is called ‘Ending Poverty in America: How to Restore the American Dream,’ a collection of bleak and technical essays by leading liberal academics. In 2004, when Edwards repeated endlessly that he was the son of a millworker, he sounded proud and hopeful; now, when he brings up his humble beginnings, it’s mainly to suggest that he knows what it’s like to be one layoff or one X-ray away from destitution.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumThe day after his third-straight well-received debate performance,
Huckabee held a conference call when reporters, in which he was asked about Tim Russert's statement on TODAY that he would be a good candidate for vice president. "We're focused not on the what ifs, if we don't make it to the top. We're focused on how we are going to get to the top. Maybe I should be flattered people are saying at least I should be on ticket. That's better than saying I shouldn't even be on the stage. So I'll take it as a compliment rather than necessarily a put down."
On
Fred Thompson, Huckabee encouraged him to join the race, saying that there are now enough people to form a football team. But he doesn't think the former senator -- even with such a name ID and face recognition -- will cause the race to come to a halt. "I tend to believe that, once he's in, there will be less of the almost aura than there is until he does get in."
And while responding to a question about his evolution answer last night, Huckabee said it wasn't a lack of desire to discuss the topic but he felt there were more important topics to be discussed, especially considering he was asked fewer questions than most of the other candidates on stage. "It just seemed out of proportion that the question I would be posed is what is my view on evolution. That's why I said, I didn't know I was really running to design an eighth grade science textbook."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
In a conference call this afternoon with reporters, the Giuliani campaign tried to justify its decision to skip the Ames straw poll -- by downplaying its significance and arguing that the millions of dollars that would need to be spent to compete in it would be better used to win the Iowa caucuses in January. “This is in no way any reflection of not playing in Iowa,” said campaign manager Mike DuHaime. “We are playing 100 percent in Iowa…. We are going to use those resources to win the caucus.”
Former GOP congressman Jim Nussle, who is the Giuliani campaign's Iowa adviser, called the straw poll a "sideshow." "The caucus is really the prize here," he said. "The straw poll is a fundraiser [for the state party]. It's a lot of fun. It's an exciting event… But it is not a demographic cross-section of the state. It is not a scientific poll. Candidates actually purchase the attendants."
But Craig Robinson, political director for the Iowa Republican Party, told First Read that this kind of thinking is “uneducated.” “Every thing you put into the straw poll benefits you in the caucus,” he said. “It would have been money better spent on the straw poll. Unless they’re going to just try to run a media campaign, which doesn’t traditionally work in Iowa."
“Obviously, he feels like he can’t compete at the straw poll, so he’s going to skip it,” Robinson added. “His staff is pretty green, and they’re not from Iowa and not ready for it. If he’s not doing any better, they might skip the caucus.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Is Tom Tancredo, who dueled with McCain over the Senate's immmigration legislation at last night's GOP debate, going to scale back his presidential bid? That's what the
Rocky Mountain News is reporting this morning. "Before a debate tonight on CNN, Tancredo, R-Littleton, told reporters he soon plans to scale back his weekly visits to the early caucus and primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire... Tancredo said he would spend more time traveling to Republican-held congressional districts around the country. There, he hopes to pressure GOP incumbents in their own back yards, threatening to work for their defeat unless they help block the immigration reform bill now pending in the U.S. Senate."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier this morning, the Giuliani campaign sent out a release saying that it would have a conference call -- at noon -- on the campaign Iowa's strategy. Now we know what the campaign plans to say. Per the Des Moines Register, Giuliani will skip the Ames straw poll in August, but still compete in Iowa. "'We've made a decision as a campaign not to play in any straw polls this year, most notably, obviously, the Ames straw poll,' Giuliani's national campaign manager Mike DuHaime said in a Des Moines Register interview today. 'We are 100 percent committed to winning the Iowa caucuses. We're going to take the resources that would have been spent in the straw poll and we're going to dedicate all of them toward organizing for the January caucuses.'"
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from the article: "Giuliani's decision could dampen interest in the event as a true early test of strength in the Republican field. He would be the first candidate in the straw poll's nearly 30 year history to bypass the event and win the caucuses."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
As we mentioned during last night’s debate, none of the Republicans said they would support a repeal of the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy. The two parties differ markedly on their views on gay rights. Each of the Democratic candidates, by contrast, would support a repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” according to a recent survey by the Human Rights Campaign.
For the first time, each of the Democratic presidential candidates answered the Human Rights Campaign’s questionnaire, and the Democrats agree on everything – except gay marriage. The only candidate to say he supports gay marriage was
Kucinich.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier today, Biden, Gravel, and Kucinich will be the only Democratic candidates participating in an Iraq-only forum at Johns Hopkins's School for Advanced International Studies.
Here's what Biden communications director Larry Rasky tells First Read: “As Senator Biden has said, we have to deal with Iraq before we get to all the other issues that need to be dealt with. It’s time for all the candidates to step up and offer detailed solutions for getting out of Iraq without leaving chaos behind. We’re still hopeful that the other candidates will step up to the challenge.”
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** McCain’s Show: Last night’s debate didn’t match the hype, especially with all the pre-fight back-n-forth between Romney and McCain. But if there was any news, it was McCain. It felt as if he owned the first 45 minutes of the debate -- from Iraq to immigration, the candidates essentially were point-counterpointing with McCain. They even followed his lead in walking up to the audience during the sitdown part of the debate. So if owning the subject matter qualifies as winning, then declare McCain the winner. It certainly was a "presidential" performance but right now one senses the GOP is looking for savior, not a president. Question, though: Why does McCain score better among those of us in the media than he did in either of two focus groups we know about (see below)?
*** Rudy And Mitt: Giuliani was solid but he still hasn't been challenged yet. McCain tried to draw him out during the immigration exchange and Rudy did a pretty good job of fighting off the criticism without creating a moment for either himself or McCain. Do Rudy and Hillary share the same consultant? One can sense that Giuliani is now a comfortable Republican, particularly on economic issues. Romney, meanwhile, seemed less involved than in previous debates. It's possible that Romney, like the other two frontrunners, was more concerned about giving Fred Thompson an opening.
*** Huck For Veep? The candidate who performed best, frankly, was Mike Huckabee -- his third-straight strong performance. He showed that his experience as a preacher man is vital in the television age. Is Huckabee now legitimately the perfect VP candidate for any of the current Big Three? Only a Fred Thompson nomination would eliminate him on geographic grounds. Speaking of Thompson, should his backers worry that his new Web site has no obvious issue hook on the home page right now? But there are two places to donate or raise money.
*** The Rest: Tommy Thompson had some surprisingly coherent moments and probably guaranteed he'd get into the media reviews of this debate because of what he said about Fred Thompson and his veiled diplomacy shot at President Bush; Tancredo is getting better, he ought to think about running for statewide office (even though that would be a tough climb for him). Gilmore, Paul, Brownback and Hunter were more invisible this time than in debates past, although Paul continued to separate himself by being the antiwar candidate.
*** Immigration Bill In Serious Condition? Discussion of the Senate immigration bill dominated much of the debate, but it now seems likely that the bill could die in the Senate, killing any chance for passing an immigration reform law this year (or even next). NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that GOP leader Mitch McConnell wants more time to consider amendments, while Majority Leader Harry Reid wants to cut off debate by as early as tomorrow. If Reid doesn’t get the 60 votes he needs to do that, he has threatened to pull the bill from the floor. Does that help McCain if that happens?
*** Beg Your Pardon? The question that’s on everyone’s mind in Washington: Does Bush pardon Scooter Libby now that he’s been sentenced to 30 months in jail? If he does, how does that affect Republican candidates in 2008? Can the GOP be the party of law and order if its president pardons someone convicted on charges of perjury and obstruction of justice? None of the Big Three Republicans called for Bush to pardon Libby, although both Rudy and Romney seemed open to the idea.
VOTE: Pardon or prison
*** If A Tree Falls In A Forest And No One Hears It…?: Biden, Gravel, and Kucinich participate in a forum on Iraq sponsored by John Hopkins’ School for Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and the Financial Times. But no other Democratic presidential candidate is joining them.
*** On The Trail: Clinton, in DC, launches "Club 44" Young Women's Outreach with Kenny "Babyface" Edmonds, Katharine McPhee, and Carolina Rhea; Edwards discusses his plan to revitalize rural America in South Carolina; Giuliani and Romney remain in New Hampshire after the debate; and Richardson is fundraising and holds a media avail in Texas.
Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 12 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 65 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 89 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 135 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 152 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 163 days
Countdown to Iowa: 221 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 243 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 516 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 593 days
Rich Thau, a pollster who frequently uses dial-testing for messaging strategy, held a focus group of likely New Hampshire GOP voters and dial-tested the candidates. The winners? Giuliani and Huckabee. A WMUR-sponsored focus group also scored it for Rudy and Huck.
Wondering about McCain and the other GOP candidates who walked up to the audience during the sit-down portion of the debate? CNN folks tell First Read that the Democrats were told Sunday night that they could stand up; in fact it was encouraged.
VIDEO: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mitt Romney debate the merits and flaws of the immigration bill that recently passed Congress.
CONTINUED >>
If the immigration reform bill was a hospital patient, it would be listed in "serious condition" -- not critical, not dead, but limping along in a debilitated state, NBC’s Strickland says. And Majority Leader Harry Reid and GOP leader Mitch McConnell have each laid down markers that many senior aides feel will ultimately result in the bill being withdrawn and essentially killed. Yesterday, Reid scheduled a vote for as early as Thursday to limit debate and votes in hopes of finishing this week. But some Republicans want more time to ensure votes on their amendments, some of which (if approved) could break the fragile coalition holding the bill together.
After previously extending the debate from one to two weeks and with an ambitious floor schedule for the coming weeks, Reid wants things wrapped up. "Immigration is something that has been debated long and hard," he told reporters. "This is a bill that will never, ever make a majority of the Republicans happy. It doesn't matter what we do." But McConnell contends Reid is trying to both protect the fragile bill and protect his Democrats from taking tough votes that could haunt many of them in their re-election bids. "I understand the position he's in," McConnell said on the floor. "He would like to move this bill and I assume have his members exposed to the fewest number of votes they don't want to cast."
Strick notes that the procedural showdown comes down to this: Reid needs 60 votes to close the debate and he can't reach that number without some GOP votes. And McConnell said it's "highly unlikely" his caucus will help. Reid says he'll pull the bill from the floor if he doesn't get the 60 votes to limit debate, likely dooming the chances of passage for the year.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York Times analyzes Clinton’s statement at Sunday’s debate that America is safer since 9/11. “The senator … was referring to domestic security efforts since Sept. 11, 2001, and not to the consequences of the war in Iraq or President Bush’s foreign policy, her advisers say. Yet rival Democratic campaigns, arguing that the war in Iraq has harmed security in America by breeding terrorists, are using the remark to highlight differences with her on the issue of the ability to be commander in chief… Advisers to other candidates, meanwhile, argued yesterday that Mrs. Clinton might be misjudging Democratic primary voters, who are loath to credit the Bush administration with much of anything.” That said, the article notes that Edwards and Obama said similar things in the past about America being safer.
Clinton replaced her Iowa director, and the Des Moines Register says the “shake-up of her Iowa campaign reflects an acknowledgement that she needs to make a serious effort in the leadoff caucuses.”
Meanwhile, Clinton will deliver the keynote commencement speech at Central High School in New Hampshire on June 14 -- the first presidential candidate to do so, according to the Manchester Union Leader.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The New York Post’s Page Six notes that Rudy won the endorsement of a porn star. “‘I fell in love with Giuliani years ago, before and during 9/11,’ Samson, star of ‘Anyway You Want Me,’ told Page Six. ‘I like how he cleaned up the city, even though I was a victim of it. I don't want to be walking down the street with my daughter and stepdaughter and see smut in the window - even though I'm part of it.’”
PAUL: The Washington Post’s Style page profiles Ron Paul’s New Hampshire campaign coordinator, Jared Chicoine. “That makes him the lone paid political operative working in a key state for a Republican presidential candidate whose candor has earned him plenty of buzz of late.”
F. THOMPSON: The Washington Post on his appearance on FOX’s Hannity & Colmes after last night’s debate: Thompson said he would support a preemptive strike against Iran to knock out its nuclear capability and accused Democratic candidates of speaking in decade-old ‘cliches’ about the challenges facing the country. Asked about his previous statements that he had never hungered to run for president, Thompson said, ‘More and more, I wish that I had the opportunity to do the things that only a president can do.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post writes that Libby’s 30-month prison sentence yesterday “put President Bush in the position of making a decision he has tried to avoid for months: Trigger a fresh political storm by pardoning a convicted perjurer or let one of the early architects of his administration head to prison…. In any debate, officials expect Vice President Cheney to favor a pardon, while other aides worry about the political consequences of stepping into a case that stems from the origins of the Iraq war and renewing questions about the truthfulness of the Bush administration.”
The New York Times adds: “If Mr. Libby goes to prison, he will be the first senior White House official to do so since the days of Watergate, when several of President Richard M. Nixon’s top aides, including H. R. Haldeman and John D. Erlichman, served prison terms.” More: “Judge Walton refused a request by defense lawyers to delay the sentence until Mr. Libby’s appeals are exhausted. Unless the judge reverses his position, as Mr. Libby’s lawyers will press for in arguments next week, or unless Mr. Bush grants a pardon, the Bureau of Prisons is expected to order Mr. Libby to report to a federal prison in the next 45 to 60 days.”
The Washington Post’s Milbank chimes in with this: “You knew Scooter Libby was in trouble at yesterday's sentencing hearing when his lawyer decided to read the judge a character reference -- from Paul Wolfowitz.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddIt's hard to pick a winner of this debate because the debate itself will be, as my colleague Ron Allen said to me earlier, "inconsequential." This debate had all the trappings of a heavyweight boxing title fight: Incredible hype followed by an incredible letdown. The pre-fight back-n-forth between Romney and McCain seemed to foretell what was going to be a great battle between the two Republicans chasing Giuliani. Alas, those of us in the media hoping to dissect a good verbal tussle between the two were disappointed.
If this debate is remembered at all, it will be for being the last debate NOT to include the 6'5" elephant in the room... Fred Thompson -- a person who the candidates seem to be worrying about more than any of us realized tonight.
Ok, personal disappointment in the lack of engagement aside, here are my quick thoughts:
-- McCain was the news. It felt as if the first 45 minutes of the debate was all about McCain. From Iraq to immigration, the candidates essentially were point-counterpointing with McCain. So if owning the subject matter of the debate qualifies as winning, then declare McCain the winner. But there was something about his body language tonight that didn't come across as the optimistic Republican he claims to be. There was a dourness to him at some points. His emotive high point was when he led the way in standing up during the town hall portion of the debate and showed incredible Clintonesque empathy toward the woman who lost a relative in Iraq. Overall, it was a competent performance but was it enough to give him an extra spark that his campaign seems to need? It certainly was a "presidential" performance but right now one senses the GOP is looking for savior, not a president.
-- Rudy Giuliani was solid but he still hasn't been challenged yet. McCain tried to draw him out during the immigration exchange and Rudy did a pretty good job of fighting off the criticism without creating a moment for either himself or McCain. But it was the only time he was challenged. Still, one can sense that Giuliani is now a comfortable Republican, particularly on economic issues.
-- Mitt Romney seemed less involved in this debate than in previous broadcasts. It's possible that Romney, like the other two frontrunners, was more concerned about giving Fred Thompson an opening. The defense of running TV ads in Spanish had the "some of my best friends are Hispanics" quality to it. That's not a good thing.
-- The candidate who performed best, frankly, was Mike Huckabee. He showed that his experience as a preacher man is vital in the television age. That said, Huckabee doesn't have national security credentials and if you look carefully at what he says in these debates, it's glaring. No one notices right now because no one views him as a serious threat even while acknowledging how good he is on stage. Still, his response to Wolf on evolution was the 60-second monologue of the night; even McCain acknowledged its excellence.
-- As for the rest of the field: Tommy Thompson had some surprisingly coherent moments and probably guaranteed he'd get into the media reviews of this debate because of what he said about Fred Thompson and his veiled diplomacy shot at Pres. Bush; Tancredo is getting better, he ought to think about running for statewide office; Gilmore, Paul, Brownback and Hunter were more invisible this time than in debates past.
So far, no one is willing to go as far as Tancredo... There was a bit of showmanship with Giuliani and McCain. Giuliani got up to try to be as eloquent as he could. McCain would not follow and stayed seated. What say you, masses, who did the better job?
From NBC's Mark Murray
Thompson: "Washington changed us."
Tancredo: "Bush ran as a conservative and governed as a liberal."
Paul said that Bush ran on having a "humble" foreign policy "and he changed his tune."
Gilmore: "Principle is the difference."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani's following him (twice now); he slapped down Tancredo and got the loudest applause of the evening.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
"I don't think we're going to be able to nominate someone who isn't pro-life."
-Brownback after saying the pro-life issue was the most important moral issue we face, and was asked if he then could support Giuliani (which he was asked in the MSNBC debate)
From NBC's Carrie Dann
We just hit six on the "Reagan" count
From NBC's Mark Murray
Giuliani: "We have great gifts that come to us from God....the reality in much of the world that doesn't exist...Are we able to share with the rest of the world?"
Paul: "I think it is the acceptance ... that we now [tolerate] premptive war."
Brownback:: "I think it's the life issue, clearly."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Huckabee: "our respect and sanctity and value of every single life."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Looking toward the general, Romney on health insurance: "Well, first of all, I want to talk to the people, not just conservatives."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Did Thompson really say that the internet question on health care was the first one of the debate? Apparently a discussion of Rx drugs doesn't qualify as a health care debate?
From NBC's Mark Murray Now Gilmore walks up....
The GOP candidates are following the leader -- McCain
From NBC's Carrie Dann Rudy Giuliani copies McCain by walking up....
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Giuliani's folks had told the mayor to stand up on the first chance he got, but McCain beat him to it and gets to look like the trendsetter.
From NBC's Mark Murray...in addressing the woman who asked the question about losing her brother. All other GOP candidates were sitting down.
***More*** This came during the second half of the debate, with all the candidates seated. McCain got up out of his chair and directly addressed the woman.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
On Monday, a colleague commented to me that he was amazed at the lack of empathy in the Dem candidates on stage Sunday night when CNN had a relative who was personally touched by the Iraq War. None got up and addressed the woman directly. This colleague noted: "Bubba would have had his arm around her in seconds..." Well, McCain's folks clearly believed the same thing when watching on Sunday. McCain showed his emotional side which has always been a hidden strength for him.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The cutaway of the woman who asked the question, looking up at McCain as he was talking was powerful.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Maybe it's the Fred Thompson, maybe it's a tired Wolf Blitzer, but this debate is lacking the energy that Sunday night had. As my colleague, Ron Allen, just put it, "it seems very inconsequential."
From NBC's Mark MurrayTommy Thompson just said that Bill Clinton lost his law license after committing perjury, while Libby got 30 months.
Does anyone think this becomes a story in the day or two after the Libby sentencing?
Giuliani: "The sentence was grossly out of line. I would see if it fit the criteria for pardon."
Brownback: "Yes."
Romney said he'd look like at if president.
Tancredo: "Yes"
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Both Tancredo and Thompson gave the type of anti-Bush answers that will likely get more coverage for them from this debate than they would have garnered otherwise. Thompson's had the right tone; Tancredo's... well...
From NBC's Mark Murray
Blitzer just asked Thompson how he'd use George Bush in his Administration -- a riff from his question to the Democrats on Sunday on how they'd use Bill Clinton. Thompson just answered that he wouldn't put him in the United Nations.
