July 2007 - Posts
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Here's a tidbit on one of the few 2008 spouses who's actually been OUT of the news for the last few weeks. Sandwiched among the health-care policy questions posed to Giuliani at an afternoon press conference today came one about the latest profile of the mayor's wife, Judith Nathan. A reporter asked Giuliani to respond to an article in the September issue of
Vanity Fair that takes a fairly unflattering tone in its headline of his third wife as his "princess bride."
Giuliani replied that he has "quickly" looked over the piece, and he called its characterization of an attached-at-the-hip relationship with his wife "very incorrect." And the temperature in balmy New Hampshire might have dropped just a tad when he concluded, "One of the terrible prices that unfortunately families pay in a situation like this is that they get castigated and attacked. And, usually, most reporters don't even ask about it. They actually have more dignity than to ask about it."
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Among the 9,167 donors who contributed a combined $3.46 million in the month of June to former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson's "testing the waters" committee, several are notable names.
Georgette Mosbacher, a leading Republican fundraiser, who once dated Thompson, contributed $2,300.
Former Sen. Howard H. Baker, gave $2,300.
Peyton W. Manning, quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, gave $2,300.
Douglas J. Feith, the former Defense Department official now teaching at Georgetown University, gave $2,300.
Katuria D'Amato, former New York Sen. Al D'Amato's wife, gave $2,300.
Trace Adkins, a country music singer, and his wife Rhonda, each contributed $2,300 maximum.
Richard A. Wolf, the producer of NBC's "Law and Order," contributed $2,300.
And George J. Terwilliger, an attorney and one of the leaders of George W. Bush's legal team during the Florida election recount, gave $2,300.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Want a free trip to DC, dinner with a presidential candidate and a tour of the Capitol, or, er, um capital? That’s what
Tancredo is offering up to anyone who can get 25 people to the Ames straw poll on Aug. 11.The offer, though, initially stirred suspicion of a violation of House ethics rules, since buildings on the Capitol grounds cannot be used for campaign purposes.
Tancredo’s campaign quickly clarified this point. Per the AP: “Bay Buchanan, Tancredo's national chairwoman, said Tuesday she meant supporters would get a tour of the capital city -- spelled with an 'a' -- which could also include a ‘public tour’ of the Capitol building -- spelled with an 'o' -- in which Tancredo would go along and point out some highlights.
“The winners would also visit some of Tancredo's favorite places in Washington, such as several war memorials, and have dinner with him at a restaurant, Buchanan said.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
Obama and Romney are up in Iowa with new 30-second TV ads.
Obama’s
spot focuses on government reform, is slickly produced and cuts together clips of his announcement speech in Springfield, Ill., and newspaper articles highlighting his days as a state senator.
Romney’s
ad focuses on immigration, specifically calls for employment verification and says “amnesty is not the answer.” The ad is polished and features Romney speaking at a town hall meeting with the backdrop of a large American flag and a heavy drum beat playing.
Obama’s ad will be mixed in with a previous biographical ad, which is running in Iowa, on cable and network affiliates. The campaign says it is a moderate, targeted buy.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
A new Gallup survey shows how Americans view the top Democratic and Republican presidential candidates on some key issues -- the economy, Iraq, terrorism, and health care. Interestingly, McCain and Giuliani tie for the top score on Iraq, while Obama leads on the economy and Clinton leads on health care. (Maybe Clinton doesn't have to release a comprehensive health-care plan after all!)
Of course, these scores are somewhat impacted by name identification (a sizable number responded with "no opinion" for Romney and Fred Thompson).
Below are the results:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
The committee that former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson set up to “test the waters” for a likely presidential run, Nashville-based "Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.," raised $3.46 million in its first month, from June 4th to June 30th, according to an Internal Revenue Service filing out today.
The amount -- reported as required by the IRS for the "527" political organization -- was less than the $5 million number that had been talked about by Thompson supporters.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
Giuliani
laid out few specifics on an actual health care plan today in New Hampshire, and instead took shots at Democrats and
Michael Moore on the topic.
"The American way is not single-payer, government-controlled anything," Giuliani said. "That’s a European way of doing something. That’s a, frankly, a Socialist way of doing something."
"If single-payer systems are cracking all over the world, why would we do it in America. Michael Moore wants to take you to Cuba for your health care. Anyone want to sign up? I didn’t think so. Maybe the Democrats will sign up."
He cited long wait times in Canada for even MRIs and took issue with the potential cost of Democratic-proposed universal health care plans. When pressed by a questioner on what steps he would take on health care, Giuliani said, first, he would "bring down the cost, so other people can afford it." Then, "give people a tax advantage to go buy individual insurance."
CONTINUED >>
NBC's Pete Williams reports that Chief Justice
John Roberts, who was hospitalized yesterday after suffering a seizure, was just released from the hospital.
VIDEO: Chief Justice Roberts leaves hospital
From NBC’s Courtney Kube
"No amount of troops in no amount of time will make much of a difference," in Iraq, according to the nominee to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, without progress on the political front from the Iraqi government.Speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee during his confirmation hearing, Admiral Mike Mullen just said that the U.S. must plan for the eventual drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq and the turnover of security responsibility there to the Iraqis.
Mullen said that he believes that the surge is helping commanders on the ground, and that "security is better, not great, but better" because of the surge. He said that security is critical, but there has not been much political progress in Iraq.
Mullen said that he understands Americans' frustration about the war, adding, "I share it," and that the U.S. "must consider our next moves very carefully."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Perhaps it's fitting that Wisconsin is hosting an intriguing political experiment.
The AP: "Two Concordia University professors are planning an unusual bipartisan campaign to unseat U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner. Political scientist Jeff Walz, 40, plans to run against the longtime Republican congressman as a Democrat. Historian James Burkee, 39, will run as a Republican. The two plan to campaign together and combine their promotional efforts. The two have worked together in recent years as speakers and commentators. They said their goal for the campaign is to show what elections should look like."
More: "'What people want is just a greater sense of decency, a greater sense of cooperation, a greater sense of collaboration," Walz said. They hope to provide that by avoiding personal attacks and forgoing donations from special interest groups. They plan to publish a pact laying out ground rules for the campaign."
Sensenbrenner is not someone who regularly appears on vulnerable incumbent lists.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Doctor Rudy: A day after unveiling his health-care advisers (including Mark McClellan) and then blasting Clinton, Edwards, Obama, and even Michael Moore for their calls for universal coverage, Giuliani gives a speech on his health-care principles this morning from Rochester, NH. And expect more volleys at Moore and these Democrats. While this might be a questionable general election strategy (a March 2007 NBC/WSJ poll found that 52% are willing to pay higher taxes so everyone in the country can have health insurance), it could benefit him in the primaries. One, this conservative view on fiscal policy could help mask his moderate social views. And two, it allows him to go to the right of Romney on an issue and record that Romney seems to be running away from. In fact, look for Rudy to essentially bait Romney into a debate on health care -- it would be exactly the type of ideological spat the Giuliani folks would love to have.
*** You Know You’re A Front-Runner When…: Speaking of Romney, the news that he might participate in the CNN/YouTube debate after all -- if the date is moved -- just shows us that the former governor is dictating the terms of the, umm, debate. If that isn’t a sign that Romney is a front-runner (emphasis on a, not the), we don’t know what else is.
*** Bill Steps In: It's remarkable that more hasn't been made of Bill Clinton's truce-like comments regarding the Hillary-Obama spat on when/if to talk to rogue world leaders. Bill Clinton doesn't do things accidentally when it comes to campaign politics. Does this mean that the Democratic Party's foremost strategist decided this feud was hurting his wife -- and helping give Obama a lift? Imagine if Bill Clinton would have piled on and criticized Obama? Would Obama have had the guts to attack back? Then again, are the Clintons mindful of their current success with African-American voters and worried that if they hit him too hard too early, they'll drive away a key constituency? So ... many … tea … leaves … to … read … so … little … time … when … it … comes … to … Bill … Clinton
*** The Once And Future First Daughter: The New York Times profiles Chelsea Clinton, without her cooperation. Regardless of your view on the Clintons, there's no denying that the two high-profile politicians turned out a very poised and well-thought-of daughter. In this day and age of political children getting in minor trouble, Chelsea Clinton has been a model citizen. Yet a few things in the article struck us. One, she works for a hedge fund (which really isn’t the most PC of professions nowadays, especially for Democrats). Two, the Clinton campaign says that the 27-year-old Chelsea is off limits, even though she has attended campaign events. And, three, there is this: “Ms. Clinton and [boyfriend] Mr. Mezvinsky seem serious about a future together, according to friends, some of whom wonder about a White House wedding in the event of a victory by Mrs. Clinton.”
*** Northern Exposure: There are some things that just sound politically deadly, and an FBI raid is one of them. Today’s papers are full of stories about the FBI raiding the Alaska home of Sen. Ted Stevens, who is up for re-election next year. Alaska seems to be hungry for reformers: The state last year overwhelmingly elected a new governor, who does not come from the state's insider political establishment. Also, we noted last week that the state's entire congressional delegation has come under ethics fire, a sign that Alaska’s days of sending lawmakers who are focused on pork might be over.
*** Who Says There Aren’t Second Chances: Biden is out with a new book, Promises to Keep, and his campaign views it as a second official announcement of sorts. (Biden’s official announcement, remember, was overshadowed by his “clean” and “articulate” comments regarding Obama.) "I'm kind of looking at the publication of the book as the announcement cycle that we never had," Biden communications director Larry Rasky told Gannett several days ago. And how -- he was on TODAY this morning and does Letterman tonight; tomorrow, he’s on Hardball, CBS’s Early Show, and NPR; on Thursday, he does CNN and FOX; and so on. What’s more, his campaign tells us that while he’s on his book tour, his sister Valerie, wife Jill, and sons Beau and Hunter will all be hitting the trail in Iowa. But to date, free media hasn't done much for Biden. According to The Hotline, no Democratic candidate has been on the air more than he has, and it hasn't done much for his standing in the polls so far.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback heads to a firing range in Ames, IA, fires off a couple of rounds there, and then discusses gun control; Edwards fundraises in Virginia; McCain raises money in Cincinnati; Richardson is in his home state of New Mexico; Romney travels to Richmond and Virginia Beach; Tancredo makes four stops in Iowa, while Tommy Thompson makes five stops there; and Fred Thompson raises money in California.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 11 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 34 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 98 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 109 days
Countdown to Iowa: 166 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 188 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 462 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 539 days
Video: Fred Thompson committee expected to report $3 million in June fundraising
Is this the end of the Clinton-Obama spat? In his speech yesterday at the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, Bill Clinton finally weighed in on the spat -- sort of. Per NBC’s Andrew Merten, the ex-president denied commenting on who he thought was correct in the disagreement (although it’s clear where his allegiance lies) and praised all Democratic hopefuls' call for increased diplomacy. Said Clinton: “We have to get back to more diplomacy. I don’t want to get in the middle of that little spat that Hillary and Senator Obama had, but there’s more than one way to practice diplomacy. You can make up your own mind about that.”
The Politico: “If the 42nd president was speaking in any way as a proxy for his wife’s campaign, it’s a pretty clear sign that Obama has succeeded in his pushback against Hillary Clinton.”
Meanwhile, Obama once again brought up the spat during his town hall in Cedar Rapids, IA yesterday, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum reports. "It is my belief that we have to talk to the Iranians and we have to talk to the Syrians," he said, receiving lengthy applause. Obama stated that he is "not worried about losing a PR debate with some tin-pot dictator," and that Iran and Syria are receiving a free pass. "They are able to act irresponsibly to allow insurgents or to finance militias inside Iraq. Nobody holds them accountable. And the United States is blamed because it looks like we're unwilling to talk to them. And my attitude is we should not be afraid to talk to anybody."
Between now and August 11 (the day of the straw poll), we'll be focusing a bit more energy on the under-the-radar campaigns going on among the various second- and third-tier GOP candidates. Politico's Simon helps set the cheeky CW for the second-tier candidates.
GIULIANI:
John Harwood of CNBC and the Wall Street Journal
curtain-raises Giuliani's health-care speech today. Giuliani, "bidding for the allegiance of economic conservatives, is set to outline a health-care policy that he says would improve coverage access and affordability at little cost to the government." In an interview, Giuliani "described development of the anemic market for individually purchased health-insurance policies as the centerpiece of his plan. He said that, if elected, he would introduce a tax deduction of as much as $15,000 a family for the purchase of such policies. He predicted that with such a tax break, the number of Americans buying coverage on their own would go to 30 million or more from the current 17 million. Such an increase in subscribers would let insurance companies cut the prices of policies markedly and allow "millions" of Americans to afford coverage, Mr. Giuliani said."
CONTINUED >>
It looks like Big Labor could largely stay on the primary sidelines -- not because it isn’t crazy about any of the candidates, but because it’s very pleased with the field. "If the unions do delay throwing their weight behind any candidate early in the campaign, it would be particularly frustrating to" John Edwards, who has courted labor heavily. "Several unions that like Mr. Edwards are wary of endorsing him because he lags well behind Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama in the polls… Clinton and Mr. Obama are wooing unions partly to prevent Mr. Edwards’s securing the A.F.L.-C.I.O. endorsement and partly to pick up individual union endorsements for themselves."
BIDEN:
The
AP previews the senator’s new book. “‘Promises to Keep: On Life and Politics’ offers glimpses of the Delaware lawmaker's life and thoughts from his childhood growing up in an middle-class Irish Catholic family to his current run for the White House. The book will be released Tuesday. The message, according to Biden, is to get back up after life knocks you down, a mantra instilled in him by his father, whose business setbacks never diminished his pride or his determination to provide for his family.”
CLINTON:
The
New York Times piece on Chelsea Clinton: “So far, Ms. Clinton is more a character than a presence in the campaign, which seeks to portray Senator Clinton as a strong yet nurturing force, a friend to women and children and a symbol of progress from one generation to the next… Campaign officials would not say when — or even if — Ms. Clinton would appear on the trail. ‘Even though President and Senator Clinton are public figures, their daughter is not,’ Howard Wolfson, the campaign spokesman, said in a statement. ‘While Chelsea Clinton has attended events for her mom and will be supporting her parents in their political and philanthropic endeavors, she will continue to focus on her own professional and personal interests as a private person.’”
CONTINUED >>
There's a bill floating around in the Michigan legislature that could allow the state to hold a January 29 primary (joining Florida). Then again, the bill could also allow the primary to be on Tsunami Tuesday (Feb. 5).
Here's what we can tell you about Michigan: Either party is prepared to hold a primary, a caucus, or even a convention in order to have a say before February 5. A lot depends on how Florida is treated by the DNC.
This has nothing to do with the primary calendar, but keep an eye on the North Carolina Democratic legislature, which could dramatically shake up the Electoral College playing field if it decides to award the state’s electoral votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all (a la Maine and Nebraska). This could take three to five electoral votes away from the GOP.
The headline from the
Washington Times: “New British leader backs Bush on Iraq.” From the article: “British Prime Minister Gordon Brown yesterday strongly backed the U.S.-led war in Iraq and said the global war against terror looms as a ‘generation-long battle.’” But the
New York Daily News’ take on Brown’s visit with Bush is that he “signaled his intent to pull his 5,500 troops from Iraq.” The paper also writes that Brown believes “Afghanistan is the front where the war on terror is being fought.”
The New York Times: “The two leaders showed none of the warmth and coziness that Mr. Bush had shared with Mr. Brown’s predecessor, Tony Blair, a closeness that contributed to Mr. Blair’s political tumble at home. But Mr. Brown offered bullish comments on Britain’s relationship with the United States. On Iraq, Mr. Brown said any future British decision to reduce troops and cede control of a sector to the Iraqis ‘will be made on the military advice of our commanders on the ground.’”
CONTINUED >>
Here are some excerpts of Vice President Cheney’s interview with Mark Knoller on CBS Radio yesterday:
-- on whether he wants AG Gonzales to keep fighting for his job: “I do. I'm a big fan of Al's.”
-- on whether Gonzales needs to clarify his testimony: “I'm not going to get into the specifics of it. I think Al has done a good job under difficult circumstances. The debate between he and the Senate is something they're going to have to resolve. But I think he has testified truthfully.”
-- on whether Gonzales can remain attorney general if Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Pat Leahy says he doesn’t trust Gonzales: “I've had my differences with Pat Leahy. I think the key is whether or not he has the confidence of the President, and he clearly does.”
-- on Libby’s guilty verdict: Cheney said he disagreed with it, that President Bush handled it correctly, and that he’s seen Libby at a number of social events since the commutation. Libby guilty verdict, the President handled it correctly and that he's seen Libby at a number of social events since the commutation.
The Washington Post: "Cheney's remarks about his former aide, I. Lewis ‘Scooter’ Libby, appear to conflict with the views of President Bush, who said after the verdict that he 'respected' the jury verdict but felt that the 30-month sentence handed to Libby was excessive."
The
Washington Post: "Agents from the FBI and the Internal Revenue Service raided the Alaska home of Sen. Ted Stevens (R) yesterday as part of a broad federal investigation of political corruption in the state that has also swept up his son and one of his closest financial backers, officials said. Stevens, the longest-serving Republican senator in history, is under scrutiny from the Justice Department for his ties to an Alaska energy services company, Veco, whose chief executive pleaded guilty in early May to a bribery scheme involving state lawmakers… Stevens said in a statement that his attorneys were advised of the impending search yesterday morning. He said he would not comment on details of the inquiry to avoid ‘any appearance that I have attempted to influence its outcome.’”
The New York Times adds that the investigation centers on Stevens’ relationship to a businessman who oversaw a remodeling project that almost doubled the size of the senator’s house… The decision to raid the home suggests that the corruption investigation focused on Mr. Stevens … has taken on new urgency.”
"Neighbors said agents showed up between 11 a.m. and noon, and a commercial locksmith was called to open the front door. The agents were still there at 8:30 p.m… Throughout the afternoon Monday, agents could be seen coming and going from the house, on a dirt street below the Alyeska Ski Resort. Curtains were drawn much of the day, so it was impossible to know what was happening inside. Outside, agents could be seen taking extensive still and video images of the house and surrounding property.”
From NBC's Carrie Dann and Mark MurrayIf the
Giuliani campaign's conference call earlier today wasn't a hint that the former New York mayor was on the attack against the Democrats' health-care plans, this certainly is... In New Hampshire today, Giuliani was treating supporters to a quick preview of the big health-care policy rollout he'll give tomorrow in Rochester. And from the sounds of it, he'll be casting documentary filmmaker Michael Moore in a starring role as his number one villain.
In the recent documentary "Sicko," Giuliani said at one campaign stop, Moore "proclaims, in essence, kind of what the theory of the Democrats is -- that medicine in Cuba is better than medicine in the United States." To much chuckling, he asked the crowd, "Would anybody here like to put up their hands to go to Cuba for medical treatment? No! It'd be like getting sentenced!"
At a later stop in Moultonsboro, NH, Giuliani drew even more specific parallels between Moore and his Democratic rivals -- a tactic that both he and Mitt Romney are fond of employing. "Only Michael Moore,
Hillary Clinton,
Barack Obama, and
John Edwards, I guess, would want to go to Cuba for health care," he said. Giuliani went on to accuse Democrats of "setting traps" for the American people by promising universal health care (administered by what he calls a "nanny state") rather than the market-based system supported by most Republicans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A group of House Democrats will introduce a resolution calling on the Judiciary Committee to begin impeachment proceedings against Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.
Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) will sponsor the measure. It will be dropped in the hopper tomorrow.
It's too early to say whether it will actually get anywhere.
Here's the text of resolution...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
BREAKING NEWS: Chief Justice John Roberts has been taken to a hospital in Maine after falling at a summer vacation home.
The court says Roberts fell at a summer home in Port Clyde, Maine. An ambulance was called, and he was taken to a nearby hospital "as a precaution." The court says he was conscious during the trip to the hospital, and an emergency response team member tells NBC News Roberts was "alert."
He fell earlier this afternoon, sometime between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm ET, the court says.
Roberts is 52 and has has been chief justice for two terms, joining the court in late September 2005. He has no history of health problems.
****UPDATE**** Long before John Roberts was a federal judge, he apparently suffered a seizure while playing golf. It was in January 1993, while he was in private practice. News reports at the time say he was not allowed to drive for several months and took the bus to work. There's no indication that doctors ever figured out what happened. The White House called it an "isolated, idiosyncratic seizure."
**** UPDATE II **** The Supreme Court says that Roberts suffered a benign seizure today.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC News, MSNBC, MSNBC.com and the New York Times today announced a new partnership, collaborating on national political coverage for the 2008 election. Reporting, articles and video from the organizations will be posted on each others' Web sites.
For more on the new partnership, see below.
For MSNBC's politics Web site.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Andrew Merten
Giuliani will unveil an outline of his healthcare plan tomorrow as one of his “12 Commitments” in a speech in New Hampshire. The campaign held a conference call with reporters, rolling out a cadre of conservative health care policy advisers from Mark McClellan to fellows at the Hoover Institution, Manhattan Institute and Pacific Research Institute, including two anti-universal health care Canadians.
One of the advisers, Sally Pipes, head of the Pacific Research Institute, acknowledged the problem of the 45 million uninsured in the United States, but contends, in part, that they are uninsured because they cannot afford insurance, and they will be able to afford it when “mandates” and “regulations” on employers and health insurance companies are removed.
“Unfortunately, there's another vision out there, which is being espoused by governors, mayors, political presidential candidates, which is trying to solve the problem of the uninsured by introducing the concept of universal coverage, which means individual and employer mandates,” Pipes said. “And that is the wrong way to go.… By putting an individual mandate in place … it will not solve the problem of the uninsured.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Joel SeidmanCandidate-in-waiting
Fred Thompson, a frequent contributor to conservative Web sites like National Review Online and the Townhall.com blog, is once again promoting his views on yet another core conservative issue. Today, he is taking on the controversial subject of Eminent Domain, one of the growing list of core issues that Thompson has decided to tackle online.
"Our Founders placed respect for private property as a key principle when writing our nation's Constitution," he writes on his own Imwithfred.com. Homeownership, Thompson says has become an increasingly "integral part of our citizens' aspirations for a better future." And he lashes out at local governments' confiscating private property, "It's said that a man's home is his castle, but across America some property owners are being rooked by local bureaucrats and politicians and having their private property confiscated by local governments for the supposed public good," he argues.
It's yet another sign that Thompson is positioning himself as the champion of all things socially conservative -- from global Warming to immigration to gun control.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Should we cross
Eliot Spitzer off of any potential '08 veep lists? Don't miss his mea culpa in
Sunday's New York Times, under the header "An Apology From Albany."
Spitzer's style has been compared to
Giuliani's -- a tough prosecutor who never shied away from a bank of TV cameras. Spitzer, in his first six months, is having similar "getting along" problems as Giuliani had during many parts of his mayoral terms. Compromising with folks who don't see things your way is not easy for an elected executive. Being a prosecutor is easy in comparison.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Many of us view the goings on here in your US House with bemusement or even disdain. The rap is that the "people's House" occupies itself with naming post offices and passing "sense of Congress" resolutions that are sops to one special interest or another and have no real impact. Everything else -- the important stuff -- gets mired in partisanship.
But a resolution on the floor today demonstrates very clearly that Americans are not the only ones watching what goes on here, and that what our national legislature says and thinks has great influence abroad. Today, the House will likely call on the government of Japan to "apologize and accept historical responsibility" for comfort women -- the young Asian women who were forced into sexual slavery by the Japanese Imperial Army during World War II. The resolution, though destined for obscurity on these shores, is threatening to cause a rift with one of America's closest allies.
The measure is sponsored by Bay Area Democrat Mike Honda, a Japanese American who spent his childhood in a WWII Japanese internment camp in Colorado. It has been the subject of a reportedly harsh letter from the Japanese embassy in Washington to Speaker Pelosi. Normally forthcoming congressional aides have been secretive about such run-of-the-mill matters as when the bill would hit the floor, announcing just yesterday that it be considered today. So great is the potential impact in Asia that it appears to have been held until the day after Japanese parliamentary elections.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** How Things Change: A year ago, a handful of potential Democratic presidential candidates (Hillary Clinton, Evan Bayh, and Tom Vilsack) attended the centrist Democratic Leadership Council’s annual meeting in Denver. But this time around, not a single one has traveled to Nashville to speak at this year’s conference, which continues today. On the flip side, most of them will participate this weekend at the YearlyKos convention, sponsored by the liberal political blog DailyKos.
*** The Center Didn't Hold: While not a single Democratic hopeful will speak to the DLC, the famous spouse of the front-runner -- Bill Clinton -- addresses the group today this afternoon. It was Clinton, of course, who once chaired the DLC and embodied many of its principles during his presidency. But as Noam Schieber put it in a Saturday New York Times op-ed, the DLC appears to have outlived its usefulness. Once a needed counterweight to the liberal excesses of the '70s and '80s, the DLC found itself on the wrong side of the Iraq war (its founder and staff backed Joe Lieberman's independent bid last year). What's more, a March NBC/WSJ poll (for the first time ever in the survey) showed a majority of respondents want an activist government. Will pendulum keep leaning toward the left come November 2008? The Democratic candidates seem to be betting the White House on it. However, of the current '08 field, Hillary Clinton may very well be the DLC candidate.
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Video: None of the candidates attending Dem. Leadership Council meeting
*** The 3-Million-Dollar Man? Per NBC’s Joel Seidman, Fred Thompson’s “testing the waters” committee must file with the IRS by tomorrow to reveal -- for the first time -- some of his fundraising efforts for "Friends of Fred Thompson, Inc.," the Nashville based "527" political organization he formed in early June. Though the filing will provide records for only one month of funds raised, plus a list of contributors, it will somewhat lift the veil of mystery of Thompson's fundraising abilities. Will the amount be able to stop the flow of bad news for Team Fred (which includes staff defections, questions about his abortion record, and attention to his wife’s role in his campaign)? Maybe not. NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reported last week that the tally will be around $3 million.
*** So You Say You’ve Got Experience: Newsweek's Wolfe writes about last week's Clinton-Obama spat and delves into something we're surprised some of the foes of Clinton and Obama haven't brought up yet: Whether either one of them really has a lot of foreign policy experience. “Both Clinton and Obama have called on foreign-policy heavyweights to educate them on the issues and help shape their approach to world affairs. But neither candidate would bring much in the way of hands-on foreign-policy experience to the Oval Office. Their efforts to promote their credentials can seem strained."
*** Living History: On Sunday, the New York Times front-paged letters that Hillary Clinton exchanged with a friend while in college. These letters are both revealing -- and not -- at the same time. They are revealing in that she comes across as, get this, a typical college liberal of the time. In the article, the Clinton camp acts as if it doesn’t care for this type of coverage. But one can argue that it helps continue to make her three dimensional, which only helps. The tidbit, though, that she asked for copies of these letters wasn’t surprising. The Clintons never like to be surprised.
*** On The Trail: Giuliani stumps in New Hampshire; McCain hits fundraisers in Pittsburgh and DC; Obama holds a town hall in Cedar Rapids, IA before traveling to Dallas for a fundraiser; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; Tancredo campaigns in Iowa; and Fred Thompson has a closed-press fundraiser in DC.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 12 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 35 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 82 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 99 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 110 days
Countdown to Iowa: 167 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 189 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 463 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 540 days
The Clinton-Obama spat continued over the weekend, NBC’s Andrew Merten reports… On Saturday, while campaigning in Des Moines, Obama said: “It’s time to turn the page on the Bush-Cheney diplomatic strategy that has isolated America from our allies and reduced our moral standing in the international community. We need a president who’ll have the strength and courage to go toe-to-toe with the leaders of rogue nations because that’s what it takes to protect our security.”
Then former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who has endorsed Clinton after ending his own presidential bid, quickly fired back. In a conference call with reporters, he challenged Obama to clarify his position, saying, “It appears that the day before the Charleston debate, Senator Obama is reported [per the Miami Herald] to have suggested that he would be glad to meet with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, but only with certain preconditions being met, which is precisely what Senator Clinton said.” Vilsack continued: “We just would simply like the good senator to clarify his position. Which is it? Preconditions or not?”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
On this same day that Bill Clinton is the lone candidate or candidate spouse to address the DLC convention, the
Los Angeles Times examines Hillary Clinton's relationship with Indian-American businesses, some of which are seen by labor unions as threats to labor because of outsourcing. “‘People do want to see from her some recognition that the outsourcing of these service jobs isn't a good thing for the U.S. economy,’ said Thea M. Lee, policy director of the AFL-CIO. ‘It's a little bit of an open question where Sen. Clinton's going to end up on outsourcing.’”
On Sunday, the LA Times had a piece that's going to make the Clinton folks upset. Arguing that the Bush Administration is one of the most secretive in history, the piece contends that if either Clinton or Giuliani is elected, their past suggests they'll follow suit. "Clinton was widely criticized for secrecy when she led her husband's effort to design a new healthcare system. A task force she headed ran afoul of federal law when it tried to hold closed meetings… Giuliani resisted outside efforts to evaluate municipal programs and review city records when he was mayor. As he was leaving office in 2001, he had thousands of mayoral records hauled to a private warehouse — a move that gave rise to a city law barring such action."
On Sunday, the New York Times examined letters that she exchanged with a friend from 1965-1969. “Ms. Rodham’s 30 dispatches are by turns angst-ridden and prosaic, glib and brooding, anguished and ebullient — a rare unfiltered look into the head and heart of a future first lady and senator and would-be president. Their private expressiveness stands in sharp contrast to the ever-disciplined political persona she presents to the public now.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times writes about anti-abortion conservatives who are a bit worried about the GOP presidential field.
Conservative bloggers have drawn up a petition urging the GOP presidential candidates not to shun the Republican CNN/YouTube debate, which is set for next month. The petition says, “Attend the YouTube debate, and you may get a tough question or two. Don't attend, and millions of Americans will wonder if you were too afraid to answer questions from the Internet, just as Democrats were afraid to go on Fox News. None of you could have gotten to where you are now without showing real political courage. Is that really how you'd like to be known?”
But the Washington Post reports that Romney might be willing to participate in the YouTube debate, if the date is moved.
More potential YouTube debate questions are being posed at Giuliani than any other candidate already, the New York Post reported on Sunday.
CONTINUED >>
At Camp David later this morning, President Bush holds a joint press availability with new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Yesterday, the Los Angeles Times wrote that the Democratic presidential candidates talk about getting out of Iraq, but not much on Al Qaeda and terrorism. On the flip side, Republicans talk about the threat of Islamic terrorism, but not so much on Iraq. “The problem each party faces, polls show, is that most Americans want answers to both questions, not just one or the other.”
VIDEO: President Bush and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown meet face-to-face for the first time since Brown succeeded Tony Blair last month.
You've heard of follow the money? How about follow the schedule to find out which state is really having the most influence on the process. Hands down it’s Iowa. Check out this tally of candidate visits in the state the Iowa Democratic Party has been keeping for the last four weeks:
--The week of July 1 = 74
--The week of July 9 = 85
--The week of July 16 = 49
--The week of July 23 = 83
If a candidate made four stops in one day in Iowa, that counted as "4" in this tally. Still, it shows how busy things are in Iowa.
On Sunday, the
Washington Post front-paged: “A surgeon general's report in 2006 that called on Americans to help tackle global health problems has been kept from the public by a Bush political appointee without any background or expertise in medicine or public health, chiefly because the report did not promote the administration's policy accomplishments, according to current and former public health officials.”
It's no longer a drip-drip with Alberto Gonzales. It's a geyser.
In fact, the Washington Post front-pages Gonzales’ record with the truth. “The accusation that Gonzales has been deceptive in his public remarks has erupted this summer into a full-blown political crisis for the Bush administration, as the beleaguered attorney general struggles repeatedly to explain to Congress the removal of a batch of U.S. attorneys, the wiretapping program and other actions… [C]ontroversy over Gonzales's candor about George W. Bush's conduct or policies has actually dogged him for more than a decade, since he worked for Bush in Texas.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton is not the only one trying to capitalize on the controversy. The Obama campaign has bought flashy Web banner ads in Iowa and New Hampshire with the message:
--One candidate had the judgment to oppose the war from the start.
--One candidate knows it's irresponsible to send troops to war without a plan to bring them home.
--One candidate believes it's naïve to believe we can resolve conflicts without talking to our adversaries.
--Ready for a new direction?"
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the National Urban League conference this morning, four Democratic presidential hopefuls -- Kucinich, Edwards, Clinton, and Obama -- discussed their agendas to help poor urban African Americans rise out of poverty. But they also took advantage of the stage to offer both indirect and direct jabs at their opponents.
Clinton and Obama were each asked what, if elected, they would do to help the urban plight, and both responded they would make a change at the attorney general level. "Number one, let's appoint an attorney general who believes in the civil rights laws," Clinton said. "In addition to actually enforcing the laws we have on the books, let's make sure if there are holes that need to be plugged and gaps we have to fill, we do that." Later, Obama said, "I will have a Justice Department that actually promotes justices, and an attorney general who cares about civil rights."
Hillary's Southern And Obama's BlackIt appeared that Clinton's parodied southern accent resurfaced while she was talking about her belief for a "new and different conversation" about the 1.4 million African American men ages 16-24 in prison who are considered to be a "threat, headache, or a lost cause."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
If you or an ally is the recipient of a political attack, what do you do? First you respond to it -- and then you raise money off it. We saw this when the Edwards campaign issued fundraising solicitations during the tiff with Ann Coulter. And now the Clinton campaign is trying to raise money after its recent spat with Obama.
In a email solicitation, Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle writes, "Last week, one of the leading Republican candidates equated Hillary with Karl Marx. Yesterday, one of the leading Democratic candidates called her 'Bush-Cheney lite.' Can you imagine?? Hillary like George Bush??!! Or Dick Cheney!! Well, I guess this is what Hillary gets for being the strongest, most qualified, the most substantive, the most experienced, the most ready to be president. That's what Hillary has gotten all her career for being willing to fight for change." (No mention that Clinton struck Obama first, when she told an Iowa newspaper on Tuesday that Obama was "irresponsible" and "naive" for stating that he would meet with rogue world leaders without precondition.)
More from the email: "[Y]ou are Hillary's family; you are Hillary's friends. You are her strength. Almost one million of you -- and she's counting on you to stand with her. You've been there, in the trenches with her, day after day, week after week, year after year. Now there's only one thing I'm going to ask you to do: CONTRIBUTE. Send Hillary $5, 10, 15. Anything you can afford. Every dollar helps Hillary fight back."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Clinton campaign is circulating a fund-raising e-mail, using the flap over the senator’s “cleavage” as the peg. “Now, I've seen some off-topic press coverage,” writes Senior Advisor Ann Lewis, referring to the
Washington Post article and ensuing coverage of the topic, “but talking about body parts? That is grossly inappropriate.” She goes on to call the coverage “insulting” and urges supporters to “Take a stand against this kind of coarseness and pettiness.” She then takes a veiled shot at Edwards, saying, “Hillary's jacket was the subject of some discussion among the candidates -- because it was coral. Debates should be serious business. We are, after all, picking the next commander in chief.”
Now, give us "your support -- in whatever amount, large or small."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Illinois GOP Rep.
Ray LaHood -- one of best talkers among House Republicans --
won't seek another term. "The decision comes just more than a month after the long-time Republican representative said he would seek an eighth term in Congress and was not going to apply for the Bradley University presidential post. He said in July he would make an official re-election announcement when he begins circulating petitions for candidacy in August." It will be a challenge for Democrats to make a play for this open seat next year. In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in this Peoria-based district, 58%-42%. But if Obama's on the ticket and with the right candidate, Democrats could have a shot.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Image-maker Fred Davis, who created the McCain campaign's logo and redesigned the new Straight Talk Express bus, told the Washington Post.com today that "sadly" he is leaving. Two others left earlier in the week. That means Of McCain's ad people, just Mark McKinnon is left.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Florida polls shows Clinton with a double-digit lead over her closest Democratic competitor, while Giuliani and Fred Thompson are running neck and neck in the state's GOP contest. According to the survey, which was conducted by Mason-Dixon, Clinton leads among likely Democratic primary voters at 31% -- followed by Obama at 17%, and Edwards at 12%. No other Democratic hopeful registers at more than 4%.
Meanwhile, in the GOP race, Giuliani is the choice of 21% of likely Republican primary voters. Thompson comes in second at 18%, McCain's at 11%, and Romney is at 7%. The margin of error in both polls is plus-minus 5%.
Strikingly, 34% of Florida GOP primary voters say they're undecided (which easily tops Giuliani's 21%), while 30% of Democratic voters say the same thing.
From NBC's Courtney Kube
Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England just provided an extremely unusual -- and totally dumbfounding -- moment at the retirement ceremony for vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Ed Giambastiani.
As England was speaking about Giambastiani, a man in a red shirt walked up to the deputy secretary and put a parrot -- yes, a parrot -- on England's shoulder. England said he wanted his remarks to be very personal and that was why "Sweetie Pie" was on his shoulder. But England did not explain the joke for the rest of us. The parrot stayed on England's shoulder for the remainder of his brief remarks.
England then brought out a digital recorder that had recorded a message to Giambastiani and his wife on ... in morse code. He played the recording and translated the farewell message for those of us whose morse code is a little rusty.
Gates joked about the moment when he stepped to the podium right after England, saying, "I can't possibly top that. I have no animals."
Video: Defense official delivers speech with parrot
From NBC’s Andrea Mitchell
John Edwards took a shot at Clinton and Obama's dispute -- telling the National Urban League convention in St Louis: "If you’re looking, if you're looking for what’s wrong in Washington, why the system is broken, why the system doesn’t work, one perfect example is what's been happening over the last four days. We’ve had two good people, Democratic candidates for president, who’ve spent their time attacking each other, instead of attacking the problems that this country’s faced.
“I got your attention with that one, didn't I?”
He delivered a populist-themed speech, opening his remarks by saying that America is broken -- and he still believes we have two Americas. "I'm here to tell you the system is rigged,” Edwards said. “It is rigged; it is broken, and not working for most people in this country."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The word spreading all over Capitol Hill today is that longtime Fox senior congressional producer Jim Mills is leaving his booth on the House side to join the Fred Thompson quasi-campaign as spokesman. NBC has confirmed that Mills will join Thompson's organization effective August 20.
Lot's of "OMG" and even "OMFG" being traded on the e-mail this morning among staffers and press because Mills is something close to a legend on the House side. Known for his pugnacious (yet jocular) style, everyone from Speaker Pelosi to the cashiers down in the basement have gotten a kick out of "Millsy" at one time or another, and in one form or another.
Full disclosure: Over the years, Mills and I have been fierce competitors and close friends. I have known him to be a creative and perceptive individual who never played favorites. Most everyone comes away from an encounter with him with a smile on their face, with some notable exceptions among members -- both Rs and Ds -- who trip his BS alarm.
See ya around, Millsy.
From NBC's Andrew MertenEven before the opening credits of the new "Simpsons" movie, the writers take a jab at the earlier-than-normal coverage of the next presidential election. The movie begins with an episode of "Itchy and Scratchy" that tells of the cartoon mouse's heroism, making him
Hillary Clinton's running partner -- and she's the at the bottom of the ticket.
Other political plots include
Al Gore's crusade against global warming, NSA spying, and
Arnold Schwarzenegger as president.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** The Shot Heard 'Round The Political World: This week’s spat between Clinton and Obama appears to be over. And a month from now, we’ll all have forgotten it. But it did expose -- in public for the first time -- the different attacks the campaigns will use against each other. For Clinton, it was painting Obama as inexperienced ("naïve" and "irresponsible") and as a hypocrite when he punches back (“Whatever happened to the politics of hope?”). For Obama, it was turning Clinton into the status-quo candidate (calling her “Bush-Cheney lite”). Who won? Not to cop out, but it seems both campaigns think they've done good things this week. If anything, the skirmish was analogous to a battle, where one army (Clinton’s) senses a vulnerability and charges, then the other army (Obama’s) beats it back. And the battle line remains the same as it was before the whole thing started. Although we have to note that Obama seemed to have a bounce in his step in New Hampshire yesterday -- like a boxer who takes a punch and realizes, hey, wow, I CAN take a punch.
*** Abandon Ship, Abandon Ship: Fred Thompson is lucky that most political reporters this week have been focused on the Clinton-Obama spat. Because the last 24 hours in his non-campaign have been chaotic, to say the least. There was a point yesterday when it seemed Thompson was losing a staffer an hour. Apparently, every single staffer that decided to leave called a reporter or a blogger to give their version of "Jeri Thompson is micro-managing things too much." Lots of eye-rolling among those following this story. Perhaps the good news for Thompson is expectations for his actual candidacy are starting to drop -- like a rock among some.
*** So Who’s The Front-Runner? As NBC’s David Gregory pointed out on TODAY, the front-runners might not be the candidates who are leading in the national polls. In fact, a new KCCI/Research 2000 polls shows Edwards and Romney ahead in Iowa.
Video: New Iowa poll shows Dem and GOP shake-ups
*** Back On The Hot Seat: Congressional Democrats are not giving up on their campaign to oust Attorney General Alberto Gonzales. And the White House should be aware that every time Gonzales appears on the Hill to defend himself, more Republicans seem comfortable criticizing him as well. Gonzales has already defied political death before, so who knows. But when the head of the FBI is disputing your accounts, that can't be a good thing.
*** Another Day, Another Forum: This morning, Clinton, Edwards, Kucinich, and Obama speak (individually) to the National Urban League’s conference in St. Louis. All the GOP presidential candidates were invited, but none of them will make an appearance, although Huckabee attended a private reception there last night. After the conference, Clinton participates in an economic policy town hall at West Virginia State University and then speaks at the National Beauty Culturists' League Convention in Virginia; Edwards speaks at the College Democrats of America Conference at the University of South Carolina; and Obama hosts a “rural issues forum” in Iowa.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback is in Iowa; Dodd also stumps in the Hawkeye State, where he meets bicycling registrants at the Ride Across Iowa (note: he’s not riding 12 miles like Edwards did yesterday); Giuliani travels to Dallas; Huckabee speaks in Philadelphia; McCain raises money in New York City and then attends a minor league baseball game in Greenville, SC; Richardson is in New Hampshire, and Romney campaigns in Iowa. The candidates’ wives are busy as well: Elizabeth Edwards makes three stops in New Hampshire, while Jackie Dodd and Mary Brownback are in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 15 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 38 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 85 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 102 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 113 days
Countdown to Iowa: 170 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 192 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 466 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 543 days
The Washington Post's Balz and Kornblut write about yesterday's escalation by both camps and note: "The tussle could be a turning point in the Democratic race, which has seen little direct engagement between the top two candidates until now, and highlights how the competition between them has been framed: Clinton's experience vs. Obama's freshness. For Obama, it also marked a plunge into charge-countercharge politics after a promise to run ‘a different kind of campaign.’”
A couple of fallout questions: Will Obama pay a price with supporters (especially independents) for practicing politics as usual, and will Clinton see her unfavorables go up among Democrats for hitting the popular guy?
The Politico's Smith says, "At the core of the exchange, each campaign saw an opportunity. Clinton saw a chance to feed doubts about her main challenger's readiness to stand on the world stage. Obama, after a moment of doubt, took the offensive to paint himself as the true apostle of the kind of dramatic change that Americans – and particularly Democrats – say they want."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN:
Here's an interesting shot Joe Biden's New Hampshire chair took at Obama yesterday. There's a charge buried in here, but it's implied not direct. We'll let you, the readers, connect the dots. State Rep. Jim Ryan issued a statement following Paul Hodes' endorsement of Obama: "I am deeply disappointed by the comments of Senator Obama this morning. It does not say a lot for Obama's opinion of New Hampshire officials if he thinks that our endorsements can be bought and sold for 'favors.’ We take pride in New Hampshire of the fact that we look beyond the hype and the money and really focus on where all the candidates stand on the issues. Our last two Democratic presidents started off low in the polls, however they won in New Hampshire based on the merits of their ideas.”
CLINTON:
She’ll be in Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket at the end of August for at least three fund-raisers. “Tickets for the August 25 party go for $2,300 for the whole affair, or $1,000 to attend the reception but skip the ‘town hall conversation,’” the
Boston’s Globe says.
An ex-National Education Association president
endorsed Clinton.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Daily News says it looks like there’s but a “snowman’s chance” of a CNN/YouTube Republican debate. Giuliani said “scheduling issues” would likely keep him away; McCain called questions from a snowman “frankly inappropriate”; and Romney said “the presidency ought to be held at a higher level than having to answer questions from a snowman.” The New York Post says Giuliani’s camp is concerned about the proximity of the Sept. 17th date to the close of the third quarter -- Sept. 30th.
GIULIANI: The
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder also notes that Giuliani might skip the YouTube debate. While in Texas yesterday, Giuliani said the red state could be competitive in a general election, notes NBC’s Shawna Thomas. “Texas will be a battleground,” he said, insisting that Republicans couldn’t take the state for granted.
CONTINUED >>
Per the New York Times, “Bush administration officials are voicing increasing anger at what they say has been Saudi Arabia’s counterproductive role in the Iraq war. They say that beyond regarding Mr. Maliki as an Iranian agent, the Saudis have offered financial support to Sunni groups in Iraq. Of an estimated 60 to 80 foreign fighters who enter Iraq each month, American military and intelligence officials say that nearly half are coming from Saudi Arabia and that the Saudis have not done enough to stem the flow.”
NBC Des Moines affiliate WHO-TV took six undecided voters -- two Democrats, two Republicans, and two Independents -- from different Iowa cities and allowed them to grade the Dem and GOP presidential candidates’ responses to this question: “What do you think will happen when U.S. troops are withdrawn from Iraq, and what is your strategy to deal with what happens afterward?” The grades weren’t too kind.
A new Research 2000 poll conducted for KCCI in Iowa shows Edwards still leading with 27%, followed by Clinton at 22% and Obama at 16%. Also breaking double-digits, Bill Richardson at 11%. In May, Research 2000 had Clinton in the lead with 28%, followed by Edwards at 26% and Obama at 22%, with Richardson at 7%. So only Edwards and Richardson saw their numbers go up (though Edwards' inch up was statistically insignificant). Of significance, both Clinton and Obama went down.
On the GOP side, Romney has a double-digit lead. He sits at 25%, with Thompson at 14%, Giuliani at 13%, and McCain at 10%. This is a BIG change since May, when McCain, Giuliani, and Romney were all bunched up top at 18%, 17%, and 16%, respectively. Also of note in the poll, a majority of all Iowans favor impeachment proceedings against Cheney, including 63% of self-described independents.
USA Today's Jill Lawrence has a fun piece about the candidates' abilities to use humor on the campaign trail.
The
New York Times covers FBI director Robert Mueller’s testimony on Capitol Hill yesterday, which “sharply conflicted with Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales’s sworn statements about a 2004 confrontation in which top Justice Department officials threatened to resign over a secret intelligence operation… His testimony was a serious blow to Mr. Gonzales, who insisted at a Senate hearing on Tuesday that there were no disagreements inside the Bush administration about the program at the time of those discussions or at any other time. The director’s remarks were especially significant because Mr. Mueller is the Justice Department’s chief law enforcement official.”
From NBC's Andrew Merten
McCain today became the second GOP presidential hopeful (after Romney) to side with Clinton in her spat with Obama -- although he did not say so explicitly. During a town hall meeting in Derry, NH this afternoon, a member of the audience asked McCain what he thought about the dispute that began at Monday night’s debate. McCain used Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an example, saying, “Are we going to come out of this meeting, and the president of Iran is going to say, ‘I'm stopping the IEDs, I'm going to stop developing nuclear weapons, I will agree that Israel is going to exist,’ then fine. Then lets set up the meeting.” But he warned of the danger posed to the prestige of the presidency and the country as a whole if such a dictator would use a high-level meeting for propaganda purposes, similar to Clinton’s warning on Monday.
Said McCain in conclusion: “There's a downside to just saying, I'll sit down and have face-to-face meetings with one of these dictatorial rulers, who violate every principle of upon which this nation was founded.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per the Clinton campaign,
Hillary Clinton will deliver her own counterpunch to
Obama in an interview to appear on CNN later this afternoon -- and it includes a zinger at Obama's "politics of hope." She will say, “Well, this is getting kind of silly. I’ve been called a lot of things in my life but I’ve never been called George Bush or Dick Cheney, certainly. We have to ask what’s ever happened to the politics of hope?"
More from Clinton: “I have been saying consistently for a number of years now, we have to end the Bush era of ignoring problems, ignoring enemies and adversaries. And I have been absolutely clear that we’ve got to return to robust and effective diplomacy. But I don’t want to see the power and prestige of the United States President put at risk by rushing into meetings with the likes of Chavez, and Castro, and Ahmadinejad.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
In Iowa today,
Chris Dodd became the latest Democratic presidential candidate to unveil a comprehensive health-care plan, promising universal coverage within four years. The pillars of his plan are: 1) creating a heath insurance marketplace called Universal HealthMart, based on the Federal Employee Health Benefit Plan; 2) basing individual and business contributions to the Universal HealthMart on their ability to pay; 3) driving down premiums by leveraging negotiating power and reducing costs; and 4) making coverage portable -- that is, insurance would follow individuals, not jobs.
But unlike the Edwards and Obama campaigns, which released the costs of their health-care plans when they announced them, the Dodd camp tells First Read that they don't yet have a cost estimate for their plan.
*** UPDATE *** The Dodd campaign just told us that his plan will cost between $40-$50 billion a year in those first two years, and then $70 billion a year in the two years after that.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Public Citizen Congress Watch, a government watchdog organization which lobbies for various issues including campaign finance reform, has unveiled a new website that tracks the money trail of bundlers. Rebuilt for the 2008 season, WhiteHouseForSale lists these bundlers for all of the candidates, tracking those people both released by the campaigns and disclosed by press accounts. In a release, the organization stated "candidates should be required to disclose all bundlers’ identities, how much each raised and from whom each bundled contribution is obtained."
On a conference call with reporters, a spokesman said the organization believes all of this information should be available for everyone and views bundling with skepticism. "We are skeptical that bundling is healthy for democracy and with the lack of disclosure with bundling."
As of today, the site has nearly 1,900 bundlers listed -- with Edwards in the lead with 543 and McCain not far behind with 440. Clinton and Obama are listed with 220 and 262, respectively, and Giuliani and Romney have 132 and 230. One interesting tidbit the organization pointed out is that while McCain has such a large amount of bundlers, he has been suffering from money problems -- while Clinton and Obama have less but have raised more money.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In Iowa, Edwards laid out his plan to reform the American tax code, stating the only way to have a growing economy is to lift people out of poverty and into middle class. Saying Washington is the problem, Edwards once again called the system rigged for the lobbyists and stated he would be a president to bring about a change."You can't do this by being nice,” he said. “You have to tell the truth, you have to be strong, and you have to be willing to fight. The time to talk to them is after you've beaten them."
In order to bring the economy back on track, Edwards proposed three items: "reform our tax system to reward work instead of just rewarding wealth,” “negotiate and enforce smarter trade agreements,” and "demand, require corporate responsibility and for corporations to treat their workers fairly."
As part of his plan, Edwards called for helping the middle class in three areas: savings, work, and family. For the first two areas, he called for "Get Ahead accounts" and work bonds for low-income workers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
For the first few days after Monday's debate,
Clinton and
Obama's GOP counterparts were content to stay on the sidelines and watch their rivals spar over the issue of diplomatic concessions to rogue leaders. But in Iowa this morning, Republican candidate
Romney finally weighed in, and he's coming down on Clinton's side.
Speaking at a breakfast in Iowa, Romney ridiculed Obama for having "some special people he wants to visit" during his first term, referring to Obama's willingness to consider meeting with leaders like Venezuela's Chavez and Iran's Ahmedinejad.
"It's absolutely extraordinary that someone could be so out of touch with the nature of our world," Romney said of Obama. Romney scathingly added that Obama's philosophy mirrors that of Neville Chamberlain, the British Prime Minister who promoted a policy of "appeasement" towards Nazi Germany in the years before World War II.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
When the immigration debate was piping hot here in Washington,
Giuliani didn’t weigh in with specific policy proposals, but instead called the Senate immigration bill a “typical Washington mess.”Now, Giuliani, who has called himself pro-immigrant in the past, is calling for tougher border security, including a fence.
"I hope President Bush puts his energy now into building the fence, building a technological fence, increasing the size of the Border Patrol and creating order at the border, which is all that anyone's asking for," Giuliani said per the AP.
****UPDATE****The Giuliani campaign contacted First Read and said the former mayor has laid out four points -- including at the most recent Republican debate -- he would like to see in any immigration legislation contain going forward: (1) seal the border; (2) a universal biometric ID card; (3) a single database that all the agencies would use; and (4) identify everyone who is actually here in the country.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In another attempt to appeal to the conservative base and position himself as the conservative candidate, in Iowa today
Romney unveiled an “initiative to prevent pornography from reaching children on their computers.”In an e-mail to reporters, the Romney campaign issued a “
policy briefing” outlining his “Guarding our Children on their Computers” plan. He says this “major problem” is “easily solved through determined action.”
His plan includes making sure “every parent has access to software filters,” and he proposes tracking first-time sexual offenders by global positioning satellite, or GPS, for life. He calls this his “One Strike, You’re Ours” law.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Congressional Democrats subpoenaed White House senior adviser
Karl Rove, and Judiciary Committee Chairman
Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) charged that “political considerations factored into the unprecedented firing of at least nine United States Attorneys last year," the
AP reports.“E-mails released by the Justice Department show [
Attorney General Alberto]
Gonzales’ aides conferred with Rove” on the firing of the prosecutors, the AP reports.
NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reports, while not specifically addressing the possibility of Leahy issuing a subpoena for Rove, a senior WH official responded with another hit on congress:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Obama has now taken his foreign diplomacy spat with
Clinton on the campaign trail, firing back against her criticism that his willingness to meet with world dictators is “naïve.” Said Obama this morning during an endorsement speech in Concord, NH: “I’m not afraid of losing the PR war to dictators,” continuing, “I’m not going to hide behind a bunch of rhetoric. I don’t want a continuation with Bush-Cheney. I don’t want
Bush-Cheney light. I want a fundamental change.”
As
First Read reported earlier, during a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama challenged Clinton to differentiate her policy of meeting with dictators only under certain preconditions with that of the Bush Administration. This came after an initial comment to the Quad Cities Times, followed by an on-camera interview with NBC News last night. But this is the first time Obama has brought up the disagreement -- which started during Monday night’s presidential debate -- during a campaign speech. It proved to useful in riling up the audience, garnering cheers and applause.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
Having failed to get a vote expressing no confidence in Attorney General Gonzales, four Senate Democrats today tried a new approach -- asking the Justice Department to investigate him.
In a letter to the Justice Department's solicitor general, Paul Clement, they ask him to appoint a special counsel with an exceptionally broad mandate -- to investigate whether Gonzales made false statements to Congress, whether the Justice Department has been inappropriately politicized, and whether improper political influence was involved in the decision not to prosecute any potential contempt of Congress charge.
The Justice Department says in each case of Gonzales's statements, there's an explanation that shows he was not lying to Congress.
VIDEO: Democrats seek perjury probe of Gonzales
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A spokesman from Clinton's Senate office had this response to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ letter:
“While Senator Clinton is disappointed that Secretary Gates does not repudiate Under Secretary
Edelman's unacceptable political attack, Senator Clinton nevertheless welcomes Secretary Gates's acknowledgment that congressional oversight of the war in Iraq is essential to our national debate. She continues to believe strongly that there is absolutely no room for impugning the patriotism of those who rightfully engage in Congressional oversight.
“Senator Clinton also welcomes the disclosure that the Department of Defense, according to the Secretary, is indeed planning for the redeployment of U.S. forces from Iraq, and looks forward to receiving the department's briefings. To ensure that Secretary Gates' sentiments are fulfilled, she will continue to pursue with Senator Kerry their legislation mandating that the Pentagon brief Congress on contingency planning to ensure the safe and secure redeployment of our troops from Iraq.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a conference call with reporters this morning,
Barack Obama launched another volley in his spat with
Hillary Clinton, equating her answer at Monday's debate -- saying she would NOT meet with world dictators without preconditions -- to the Bush Administration's current policy. The Bush Administration says "we're not talking to these countries unless they meet these preconditions. That is the explicit policy," Obama said during a Q&A session after announcing the endorsement he won from New Hampshire congressman
Paul Hodes (D).
"You'll have to ask Sen. Clinton what differentiates her position from their position." He added that his answer at the debate -- that he WOULD be willing to meet with the leaders of Syria, Iran, etc. with preconditions -- "sends a message that we're willing to sit down and talk, and that increases over leverage and our capacity to get something done."
CONTINUED >>
BREAKING NEWS
From NBC's Courtney Kube
NBC News has obtained a copy of a letter that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates sent to Hillary Clinton late last night in response to her complaints that Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman was dismissive of her request for information about plans for Iraq. [Click here for PDF copy of letter.]
In the three-page letter, Gates tells Clinton that he "emphatically assures you that we do not claim, suggest, or otherwise believe that congressional oversight emboldens our enemies" (as Edelman alleged in his letter last week).
He says that he is willing to discuss ways to keep the Senate updated on "conceptual thinking" on the drawdown plan. He also expresses his "continued strong support" for Edelman, but adds that he "truly regret[s] that this important discussion went astray and I also regret any misunderstanding of intention."
****UPDATE****We have copied the text of the letter below. Also, some points of note:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder digs into the Republican in-fighting in Michigan over the primary date and highlights cooperation between the McCain and Giuliani camps.
Currently Michigan’s primary is scheduled for Feb. 5th with a big asterisk. The state party and the candidates have endorsed a joint primary of Feb. 5th or earlier -- the “or earlier” is what one Giuliani supporter objects to. For the Giuliani campaign, “it's most convenient, strategy-wise, for Michigan to choose delegates on Feb. 5 or later,” Ambinder writes, because “it will dilute the momentum effect provided by Florida,” whose primary is on Jan. 29th.
And other delegate selection rules "rankle" the McCain and Giuliani campaigns.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Clinton vs. Obama, Round 3: Well, Obama apparently got the last word in the skirmish over the unsavory-world-leaders question at Monday’s debate. The last 48 hours was telling: After the debate, it appeared the Obama folks were trying to fuzz things up with Clinton's position (see Axelrod's initial post-debate quote). But yesterday, one got the sense it was the Clinton side trying to do this with Obama's position (see Holbrooke's quote below). Bottom line: Obama took Clinton's punch and seemed more comfortable hitting back. We are hearing from some Clinton fans -- not insiders -- who are wondering if in hindsight it was a mistake to hit Obama on Tuesday. Did the front-runner give the challenger some needed oxygen? Also, will Obama get in another shot at Clinton when he holds a conference call with reporters this morning announcing New Hampshire Rep. Paul Hodes’ (D) endorsement?
*** Can’t We All Just Get Along? By the way, one of the other campaigns finally weighed in on this spat -- but it was via spokesperson, not the candidate. Biden manager Luis Navarro issued the following statement: “This squabble is a distraction from the main event: defeating the Republicans and ending the war responsibly. Petty arguments about foreign policy credentials will not get mine resistant vehicles in the field any faster and will not get our troops home any sooner. Already Republicans are seeking to divide Democrats on the one issue that they have no credibility on after four and a half years of President Bush’s failed policy in Iraq." But is this all we're getting from Biden? Shouldn't he be saying something like this?
*** Another Blow For Fred? If the bad news from the last few weeks wasn’t enough before his campaign even begins (shakeup, questions about his anti-abortion views, mixed reviews of his speeches), the Washington Post reports today about his career as a trial lawyer -- a profession that’s a four-letter word in many GOP circles. Do note, however, that it is not odd to see Republicans in the South who are supportive of trial lawyers. Two prominent examples: Republicans Lindsey Graham and Richard Shelby. Also, check out GOP analyst Quin Hillyer’s advice not to give up on Thompson just yet, despite the lack of positive news in recent weeks.
*** White Paper Day: Twin policy speeches in Iowa: This morning from Des Moines, Edwards gives what his campaign is billing as a major speech on tax policy. Per advance excerpts of the speech, he will “declare war” on offshore tax havens, as well as call for an end to the loophole that allows hedge fund and private equity managers to treat most of their income as capital gains. And later today, Dodd will unveil his health-care plan at a home in Marion, IA.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Brownback is in Iowa; Clinton is in DC; Giuliani travels to Houston; Huckabee speaks in Denver and meets with board members of the National Urban League; McCain holds a town hall meeting in New Hampshire; Obama goes to South Carolina after picking up his endorsement in New Hampshire; Richardson hits New Hampshire; and Romney visits in five different Iowa counties. Also, former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack holds a $20-per-person fundraising happy hour for Clinton in New York City.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 16 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 39 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 86 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 103 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 114 days
Countdown to Iowa: 171 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 193 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 467 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 544 days
In an
exclusive on-camera interview yesterday with NBC, Obama escalated his criticism of Clinton. "I think what is irresponsible and naive is to have authorized a war without asking how we were going to get out -- and you know I think Senator Clinton hasn’t fully answered that issue.The general principle that I was laying out is that we should not be afraid as America to meet with anybody.” More: "Now, they may not like what we want to hear -- so if I’m talking to the President of Iran, I’m going to inform him that Israel is our stalwart ally, and we are going to do what's necessary to protect them -- that we will not accept a nuclear bomb in Iran, but that doesn’t mean we can’t say that face to face. And obviously, the diplomatic spadework has to be done ahead of time. The notion that I was somehow going to be inviting them over for tea next week without having initial envoys meet is ridiculous.”
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The Clinton campaign released this statement from former Clinton Administration UN ambassador Richard Holbrooke: "As she has said many times, Senator Clinton believes we need to engage in vigorous diplomacy after the cowboy approach of the Bush years. She has said she would initiate serious, responsible dialogue with nations with whom we don’t agree in order to further the national security interest of the United States. But she is right not to risk the prestige of the presidency by unconditionally committing to meet with leaders of adversarial nations."
CONTINUED >>
Here’s another article noting how the Democrats seem to be shifting their language on abortion. While the party hasn't necessarily shifted its position, there appears to be more tolerance (at least among congressional Democrats) of divergent abortion views. The GOP has a good chance of nominating a pro-choice Republican, but there's not a single pro-life Democrat running for president. But given this shift, are we a cycle or two away from that? There are a handful of Dem governors who are pro-life.
The Columbia State previews Obama, Edwards and Clinton speaking to College Democrats at the University of South Carolina. Obama speaks today, Edwards tomorrow and Clinton on Saturday.
CLINTON:
Sen. Dianne Feinstein's (D) endorsement of Clinton got a package on the
LA local news when the two senators sat down for a satellite interview with KABC. It was mostly positive, but toward the end the local reporter asked Clinton and Feinstein about the extramarital affair story that has been haunting LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. According to the reporter, Clinton stood by the mayor and said he'd remain as one of her national co-chairs. DiFi apparently got "testy" with reporters that the subject was brought up in this venue. Feinstein: "It's interesting to me that the press asks those questions. I mean here is a candidate running for president of the United States. Antonio Villaraigosa is the mayor of Los Angeles. And both of us will always work with him. His personal life is something else and leave it out of that." See their joint interview
here.
CONTINUED >>
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Iowa Christian Alliance president Steve Scheffler yesterday sent an email to the group's supporters reprimanding Giuliani and McCain for not participating in its events. The group held a candidate forum at the end of June that was attended by every GOP candidate except those two. And the group notes it’s hosting house parties throughout the state at various times in order to provide another venue for candidates to participate in their events. More from the email: "While Rudy Giuliani admittedly is pro-choice and favors special rights for homosexuals he recently stated while in Iowa that he would only appoint strict-constructionist judges to the U.S. Supreme Court who are in the mold of Chief Justice John Roberts and Samuel Alito. However, most of Giuliani’s judicial appointments during his eight years as mayor of New York were hardly in the mold of Roberts and Alito… McCain has also left many Iowa Christian voters confused regarding his stances on various issues such as stem cell research, traditional marriage, and illegal immigration. While we are thankful for the pro-life votes he has cast in the past we cannot understand why he would support the use of federal tax dollars to advance the efforts of embryonic stem cell research."
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BROWNBACK: The Kansas senator defended his push-call attacks in Iowa on Romney's -- and Romney's wife's -- stance on abortion. "If anything we're saying is untrue, I will issue an apology," the
Des Moines Register notes.
CONTINUED >>
Last week, a CNN South Carolina poll had Clinton with a sizable lead over Obama, 43%-27% -- which the Obama campaign laughed at. Well, a new
Insider Advantage (R) poll (536 respondents) conducted the day after the CNN/YouTube debate in Charleston, SC has Clinton with a 15-point lead over Obama, 43%-28%. The Clinton campaign
gleefully notes this poll, as well as this recent quote from Obama’s pollster: “We are going to outright win South Carolina.”
If the Obama folks dispute this one, they may need to release their own numbers in order to provide the pudding proof.
The AP's Beth Fouhy checks in on one of the most high-profile, yet invisible, leaders of the Democratic Party: DNC Chair Howard Dean. She notes the summer of angst he's dealing with regarding the Florida primary and its place in the primary calendar.
The New York Daily News covers Bloomberg's yesterday speech to the National Urban League, in which he said agreed with Obama on the issue of merit pay.
Per NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski, US military officials say that Army lawyers are reviewing the recommendations for disciplinary action against nine Army officers -- including retired Lt. General Phillip Kensinger -- for their role in withholding the truth about the death of former Army Ranger Pat Tillman. In Kensinger's case it may require that he be recalled to active duty to face a possible reduction in rank and reduction in retirement benefits.
The officials say the recommendations call for non-judicial punishment against the four generals and five other officers -- such as letters of reprimand, which would essentially end their military careers. There are NO recommendations for criminal action. The officials stress that no final decision has been made in Kensinger's case, which is expected to be announced sometime next week.
The New York Times front-pages the anti-Iraq war movies that Hollywood will be releasing soon. In the past, Hollywood usually gave the veteran more breathing space. William Wyler’s ‘Best Years of Our Lives,’ about the travails of those returning from World War II, was released more than a year after the war’s end. Similarly Hal Ashby’s ‘Coming Home’ and Oliver Stone’s ‘Born on the Fourth of July,’ both stories of Vietnam veterans, came well after the fall of Saigon.”
The
Washington Post: “Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick J. Leahy threatened yesterday to request a perjury investigation of Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, as Democrats said an intelligence official's statement about a classified surveillance program was at odds with Gonzales's sworn testimony.”
Give us a moment to brag. But our former colleague, Elizabeth Wilner, has been named a member of the Commission on Presidential Debates, the group charged with putting on the general election debates. Also of note, Wilner has formed a new consulting firm specializing in media and strategic communication services.
BREAKING NEWS
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Sen. Obama has ESCALATED his criticism of Hillary Clinton -- taking it to political defcon three -- in an exclusive on-camera interview with NBC News.
It is a lot tougher than what he said in the debate -- or in the Iowa newspaper interview yesterday.
During a stakeout outside his senate office, Obama said in part:
"I think what is irresponsible and naive is to have authorized a war without asking how we were going to get out -- and you know I think Senator Clinton hasn’t fully answered that issue.
"The general principle that I was laying out is that we should not be afraid as America to meet with anybody."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Clinton folks aren't the only ones who picked up an endorsement from a member of Congress today. This afternoon, the Obama campaign announced that New Jersey congressman Steve Rothman endorsed the Illinois senator.
And with yesterday's testy back-and-forth between Clinton and Obama still fresh in people's minds, Rothman delivered this line on Obama's national security credentials: “Last week’s National Intelligence Estimate proves that we are no safer than we were before the attacks of September 11th,” Rothman said in a press release. “It’s time to turn the page and bring an end to the Bush-Cheney foreign policy... Barack Obama is the best candidate for President, with the strength and character to change our broken politics and restore America’s standing in the world. He will engage in the aggressive diplomacy necessary to hold countries that pose the greatest threats to our national security accountable. Senator Obama also possesses the resolve to use military force, if necessary, to protect America.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Not only did
Hillary Clinton today pick up an endorsement from California Sen.
Dianne Feinstein (D), she also appeared before Feinstein's Senate Rules Committee, where she testified at a hearing on voting reform. "I want to commend the Chairman for her dedicated work on this issue, and I am very honored to be a co-sponsor of her legislation the Ballot Integrity Act," Clinton said, per a copy of her testimony. "Under the leadership of the Committee, I hope we can move toward real reform to fix our broken electoral system and restore the integrity of our elections."
More from Clinton: "Every citizen should have his or her right to vote protected. We must count every vote so that every vote counts. We must return integrity to our ballot process."
Was the endorsement scheduled to today's testimony? And was the hearing a platform for Clinton to discuss a political issue? Feinstein spokesman Scott Gerber says no to both questions, telling First Read that the hearing had been scheduled for weeks. Yet even this is a simple coincidence, it just adds to the perception that the Clinton campaign is doing all of the little things right -- taking advantage of every opportunity.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
You might be running for president if ... you've got hecklers.
At a quick campaign stop at a Texas airport this morning, candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson faced harassment from a young woman who was vocally displeased with the senator's conservative credentials. Her beef? Thompson's membership in the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think-tank known as an influential heavyweight on US policy making.
The disgruntled woman worked her way into a reporter scrum and peppered Thompson with questions about his membership in CFR, which she derided as "the same group that's forming the North American Union with Canada and Mexico." Thompson, chuckling, replied: "Don't fuss at me, now," and went on to describe his participation in CFR and the American Enterprise Institute -- a conservative think-tank based in DC -- as sources for his "intellectual exercise."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Sources close to the presumptive campaign tell NBC News that
Fred Thompson's fundraising is down "markedly." One claimed it has "slowed down big-time." The pace is described as a consequence of the delayed announcement to enter the race."The Friends of Fred, Inc." will report to the IRS its revenue by July 31st. Sources reveal to NBC News that number will be in the range of about $3 million. Five million dollars had been the talked-about June goal. Sources describe an early burst of donations in June and say the summer fundraising has fallen off. While additional fundraisers are planned, sources say the scheduling of fundraisers was "frozen" for a time while the team was going through some internal strains.
The Jeri Factor
Some sources describe the role of the presumed candidate's wife, Jeri, as vast and powerful. Sources say "she's integrally involved in every decision" and that Fred Thompson has "set it up so everything goes through her." Critically, that was cast as "running it like a congressional campaign" and from the "kitchen table."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Before the flurry between Obama and Clinton yesterday, both campaigns were trying to prove who is winning the numbers game. Obama bested Clinton in campaign contributors in the first six months with 258,000. But the Clinton campaign, in an effort to mute those numbers, sent out an e-mail touting that it is close to one million supporters. The e-mail calls the number “astonishing” and “humbling,” but on closer examination, the Clinton camp is counting people who have signed up for e-mails on the campaign Web site as supporters.
Does that count? After all, even we, the media, are on the Clinton e-mail list.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Romney has a healthy lead in recent Iowa polls. Tommy Thompson barely registered in last month's Mason-Dixon poll with just about 2% behind Brownback (6%) and Huckabee (7%) -- not to mention McCain, Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Romney (25%). And he had to hold a conference call last month to tell reporters he wasn’t dropping out of the presidential race.
But on his chances at the Ames straw poll, Tommy Thompson told the blog Pajamas Media on camera, “If I don’t win, I’ll be shocked.” He added, “I wouldn’t say Romney’s in trouble, but I’d say I think it’s going to be between Romney and myself.”
Hmm. I wonder what the second-tier snipers (er, Brownback) will think of that.
Video: Can Thompson get traction?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Clinton vs. Obama: The two Democratic front-runners have finally engaged, rather than simply allowing their staffs to go back-and-forth. The only thing that strikes us odd about yesterday’s skirmish is that the candidates launched their attacks and counterattacks via such a small media venue (the Quad City Times). It's like two major deciding to go to war ... over the Falkland Islands. Yesterday our producers in New Hampshire tried to get Clinton to say her criticism on camera and she demurred. And neither candidate granted an interview to any other media on this issue. If neither candidate chooses to put their words on camera today, does this mean the skirmish is over?
Video: Clinton and Obama take off the gloves in 2008 spat
*** More On The Spat: Both sides appear to be going overboard on this issue: Obama's camp thinks this idea that they would do anything different than Clinton would on which world leaders they'd talk to (or even appear with) is absurd, while the Clinton camp believes Obama's answer at the debate is an example how he doesn't get that words matter and that should be a legit issue. Who was the biggest loser in yesterday’s renewed focus on Clinton versus Obama? So far, it might be the rest of the Democratic field. Indeed, how odd is it that a debate about preparation to be commander-in-chief is taking place and the three candidates with the lengthiest resumes for the job (Biden, Dodd, and Richardson) are no where to be found on the debate?
*** Fred’s Shakeup: So let us get something straight: Fred Thompson is not yet a candidate, and he's already had to shake up his leadership? (Maybe that's the lesson to be learned from McCain -- get your shakeup out early!) That said, the choice of Spence Abraham is something that should make establishment Republicans happy. He's got a good reputation as a strategist -- remember, before he served in the Senate, Abraham ran the GOP House campaign committee. Still, the shakeup before the campaign started only fuels speculation among some that Thompson's fledgling candidacy has gotten off to a rocky start (mixed reviews of his speeches, questions about his conservative credentials, delays in his campaign kickoff) before it truly has begun. There’s additional speculation that Thompson’s campaign is being micro-managed by his wife, Jeri.
*** Things That Make You Go, Hmmmm: A Bloomberg presidential candidacy has always seemed remote to many of us. But this mike2008.com Web site is already more detailed about this potential candidacy than the one Fred Thompson started (imwithfred.com). The Bloomberg folks say this was done to prevent cyber-squatting, but come on. Why shouldn't we start referring to Bloomberg as officially "exploring" a presidential campaign?
*** DLC, Yeah You Used To Know Me: The AP writes that none of the Democratic presidential candidates will be attending the centrist Democratic Leadership Council’s conference this coming weekend. The news service says it’s "a snub that says less about the centrist DLC than it does about a nomination process that rewards candidates who pander to their parties' hardened cores while ignoring everybody else.” But perhaps more importantly, the DLC turned out to be wrong -- in most Democrats’ eyes -- on the Iraq war. For better or for worse, the Democratic Party is now the party of Dean and Daily Kos (in fact, at least five of the top six ’08 Dems have confirmed they’ll attend next month’s Yearly Kos conference). It worked for them in 2006… Will it be true again in 2008?
*** The E-Word: Today is as good of a day as any to understand why Giuliani is so resilient as one of the GOP front-runners. The Washington Post/ABC poll suggesting that electability is trumping questions about Giuliani's socially liberal views is one way. Then there's the LA Times’ Brownstein insightful column that pinpoints just how Giuliani has avoided getting trapped in a death spiral for those liberal social views: he's a pure federalist, advocating for states to decide on their own what social issues to legislate and how to legislate them. And then there's Hillary Clinton. As long as she's the Democratic front-runner, the electability argument will always work for Rudy, right? That's what the campaign is banking on.
*** On The Trail: Brownback is in Iowa; so is Edwards, who participates in the Des Moines Register’s Annual Bicycle Ride Across Iowa with Lance Armstrong; Huckabee is also in Iowa; McCain campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama is in New York then DC; Richardson stumps in Iowa; Romney makes a whopping seven stops in New Hampshire; and Fred Thompson travels to Houston and Dallas.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 17 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 40 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 87 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 104 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 115 days
Countdown to Iowa: 172 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 194 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 468 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 545 days
The
New York Times writes up yesterday’s back-and-forth. Clinton “sharply criticized” Obama “for the first time yesterday as inexperienced on national security, calling him ‘irresponsible and frankly naïve’ for saying he would be willing to meet without preconditions with leaders of Iran, North Korea and three other nations during his first year as president. Mr. Obama responded swiftly, saying the Clinton campaign was concocting a ‘fabricated controversy.’ He also contended that Mrs. Clinton’s skeptical view of such meetings was similar to that of President Bush.”
The Boston Globe writes that in this “tussle over foreign diplomacy … Clinton claimed the mantle of wisdom and experience, while Obama argued that America needs to chart a new course.”
The New York Daily News gets right to it and hails, “It's finally on!” The paper adds that Clinton will use the spat “to shore up her standing among key voter blocs, such as Cuban-Americans in bellwether Florida and Jewish voters who may find the idea of a sitdown with the Holocaust-denying president of Iran disturbing.”
CONTINUED >>
Wow, how things have changed. The AP's Fournier reports that not a single candidate for the president plans to attend the DLC's summer meeting in Tennessee this weekend. The closest the group is getting is Bill Clinton. It is "a snub that says less about the centrist DLC than it does about a nomination process that rewards candidates who pander to their parties' hardened cores while ignoring everybody else. ‘They have tunnel vision,’ DLC founder Al From said of his fellow Democrats… ‘Presidents are elected in the middle and they are elected by being bigger than their party. Neither parties' activists alone can elect somebody president,’ From said in a telephone interview… "Democrats have a long history of nominating people, including people who have lost badly. The challenge for Democrats is to nominate somebody who can win the election."
The AP sat in on dial-testing focus group in South Carolina. Edwards had the best score on a single question -- an 80 for his answer on healthcare. Kucinich hit the lowest mark of the night -- in the 30s -- for advocating for slave reparations. According to the group, Obama got the greatest bump from the debate, then Clinton, then Edwards. But four of 12 thought Edwards won the debate; three thought Obama won it; two said it was Clinton.
Video: Who won the CNN-YouTube debate?
BIDEN: The Los Angeles Times made contact with the guy who asked the gun question at Monday's YouTube debate, and it finds the guy didn't like getting ridiculed by Biden.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
A new
Washington Post/ABC poll shows electability is fueling Giuliani's lead in the primary, which is exactly what the Giuliani campaign could have asked for. "Nearly half of the Republicans polled said that Giuliani represents their party's best chance to win in November 2008; that is three or four times as high as the percentage who mentioned other candidates. Democrats and independents also said Giuliani would represent the Republicans' best shot at holding on to the White House… Support for Giuliani is not deep -- only a third of his supporters said they are strongly behind his candidacy. That stands in contrast to the top two Democrats in the race for their party's nomination."
The Washington Post got a quickie interview with Giuliani yesterday after a speech in California. "Giuliani said that voters are well aware of his personal difficulties -- his divorces, a strained relationship with his son. ‘Some fair, some unfair, some true, some untrue,’ he said of the stories. But he said he hopes that those will not be the measurements by which people judge him when they choose a Republican nominee next year. ‘All of it gets tested against having been in public office for that entire time, and somehow it didn't affect my performance,’ he said. ‘At moments of great personal crises, some people perform really well, some people perform horrible. That's kinda what you gotta know.’”
The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein calls Giuliani a federalist and notes it’s his way to get the GOP nod. "Giuliani is mostly running for the GOP presidential nomination as a warrior against Islamic terrorism. But his most innovative domestic idea casts him as a peacemaker on the social issues that have divided the nation since the 1960s. Giuliani argues that the best way to reduce tension about social issues is to allow states, rather than the federal government, to take the lead in responding to them. That would allow socially conservative and liberal states to each set rules that reflect the prevailing values inside their borders. Rather than perpetual combat in Washington, he insists, the nation could reach a new equilibrium as different states gravitated to different solutions."
CONTINUED >>
Yesterday, Bush
made another case that Al Qaeda in Iraq is a threat to the US. "Bush made provocative new assertions Tuesday about Al Qaeda's role in Iraq, using recently declassified information to make his case that the global battle with the terrorism network — and Americans' safety at home — hinges on keeping U.S. troops there to fight. Bush's comments were met with skepticism by some terrorism experts and former U.S. intelligence officials, who said the president exaggerated or even misrepresented the facts in Iraq… Bush's impassioned 28-minute speech was the administration's longest and most detailed argument to date that Al Qaeda in Iraq and Bin Laden's terrorist operation were one and the same. Bush used it, he acknowledged, to rebut his critics' assertions that the Iraqi militant group was not justification enough for keeping U.S. troops in the war-riven country."
The New York Times front-pages Bush’s relationship with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki. “In sessions usually lasting more than an hour, Mr. Bush, a committed Christian of Texas by way of privileged schooling in New England, and Mr. Maliki, an Iraqi Shiite by way of political exile in Iran and Syria, talk about leadership and democracy, troop deployments and their own domestic challenges. Sometimes, said an official who has sat in on the meetings, they talk about their faith in God.”
The House will take up a measure today that would ban the establishment of permanent US military bases in Iraq, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. The free-standing bill will be put forward by Rep. Barbara Lee (D), a leader of the "Progressive Caucus" in the House. Dem leaders aim to put the item on the floor this week, with two more Iraq-related measures on tap for next week. The next four weeks after that are devoted to recess.
CONTINUED >>
Legacy watch: "The latest
Washington Post-ABC News survey shows that 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Bush's job performance, matching his all-time low. In polls conducted by The Post or Gallup going back to 1938, only once has a president exceeded that level of public animosity -- and that was Richard M. Nixon, who hit 66 percent four days before he resigned."
With Bush's unpopularity hitting record highs (or is it lows?), one wonders why the GOP candidates are taking so long to create distance between themselves and the president.
Has Alaska's history of having its congressional leadership so focused on so-called pork-barrel politics finally caught up with the state? The Wall Street Journal is reporting that veteran Republican Rep. Don Young of Alaska, "now is the subject of a continuing criminal inquiry involving possible political favors for a company in Alaska, people close to the case said. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, the powerful former chairman of the Appropriations Committee and the longest-serving Senate Republican, is also now under criminal investigation, these people said."
Pegged to yesterday’s congressional Democratic news conference touting the increase in the minimum wage, the New York Times notes that Democrats are doing everything they can to avoid the “do-nothing” label. “Democrats hope to post more legislative victories in a few days, including enacting into law some of the remaining recommendations of the bipartisan Sept. 11 commission. They also want to pass a lobbying overhaul that was central to their campaign last year against the ‘culture of corruption’ so they can start their late-summer recess on a high note. Republicans agree it would represent real progress if Democrats could get those measures through and tee up a few others for the fall. But they are withering in their criticism of what the Democratic majority has — and has not — done since taking power in January.”
… and it isn’t pretty. The
Washington Post: “… Gonzales weathered one of the most contentious and hostile congressional hearings seen during the Bush administration. Democrats and the ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee accused him of repeatedly misleading them and warned that he could face perjury charges if he lied to the panel. ‘I do not find your testimony credible, candidly,’ said Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), who became visibly angry at several points during his exchanges with Gonzales. ‘The committee's going to review your testimony very carefully to see if your credibility has been breached to the point of being actionable.’”
More: “Chairman Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.) told Gonzales bluntly: ‘I don't trust you.’”
The New York Times: “Mr. Gonzales endured the nearly four-hour battering at the hearing with a calm, sometimes bewildered expression. He insisted he would stay on as attorney general despite his low credibility in Congress. Democratic lawmakers portrayed the Justice Department as rudderless and demoralized, and they voiced deep skepticism about his leadership, often with sarcastic and derisive criticism. For the first time, several lawmakers suggested his statements about the surveillance programs were so misleading that his testimony might lead to potential legal sanction.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama is up with a radio ad today in South Carolina. The campaign would not release how strong a buy this is. In the ad -- called “It’s Time” -- an announcer proclaims, “It’s Barack Obama time” and calls him a “soldier for justice.” The ad -- playing over soft jazz with a funk vibe -- also touts Obama’s religious, community organizing and legislative credentials. Obama repeats his theme from the NAACP forum of “We have more work to do.”
Here’s the transcript:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Friends of Fred has sent out invites for a series of fundraisers with the former Tenn. Sen. Fred Thompson -- having him appear at events across the country the last week of July and early August.The $1,000 a plate individual tickets and $5,000 PAC tix are being solicited online by
Imwithfred.com
The sked is a whirlwind:
--July 25 - Houston
--July 25 - Dallas
--July 26 - San Diego
--July 27 - Philadelphia
--July 30 - Washington, DC
--July 31 - Newport Coast, CA
--Aug 1 - Bel Air, CA
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
We told you earlier about some of hirings in the non-campaign campaign of Fred Thompson. Well, per the AP, now he is shaking things up. He named former senator and energy secretary Spencer Abraham and Florida GOP strategist Randy Enright as his campaign managers. They replace acting campaign manager, Tom Collamore, a former vice president of food and tobacco giant Altria. Collamore, who helped organize Thompson’s would-be campaign, will remain as an adviser.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
John Edwards called into Al Sharpton's radio show this afternoon to speak about last night's debate and his war on poverty, but he took advantage of the opportunity to offer up an apparent dig to Clinton and his other opponents. Edwards called for "big change, bold change" for the country to change a system that is "rigged for big insurance companies, drug companies, and oil companies."
"What possible reason do they have to give up their power? They're not going to give it away. We have to take it away from them," Edwards asserted. "We cannot get bold change by compromising with the people who have the power now. Compromise is not going to get us there, triangulation is not going to get us there, being careful is not going to get us there. We need somebody who's used to fighting these people and beating them and I've been doing it my whole life."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In a conference call with bloggers, McCain piled on, calling Obama’s response about talking to leaders without restrictions “naïve.” He also fired back at Gingrich who yesterday called the Republican candidates “pygmies” and said McCain would drop out once he got his matching funds. McCain said Gingrich had “no idea what he’s talking about” unless he has “listening devices” in McCain headquarters.
The New York Sun's Ryan Sager writes McCain sounded “worn and beaten down” and described his campaign as “on life support.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In an interview with the
Quad City Times Clinton called Obama’s answer to whether or not he would meet with leaders who oppose the United States “irresponsible” and “naïve.”The Davenport, Iowa paper wrote: “Clinton rejected the idea she reversed herself and added she wouldn’t foreclose talks with those leaders. But she wouldn’t promise it, either, and she added that Obama is regretting his answer today.
"'I thought that was irresponsible and frankly naive,'" the New York senator said.
We will update when we get a response from the Obama campaign.
***UPDATE 2***Listen to Obama and Clinton's interviews with the Quad City Times.
And talk about a tight campaign, a Clinton staffer also on the line treated the interview like a
conference call and told the reporter,"I think it's time to wrap up." The reporter paused a bit, asked a final question and then the call ended.
****UPDATE****Obama hits back
Obama himself responded to the Quad City Times, saying Clinton was creating a "fabricated controversy" and that what was "'irresponsible and naive' was voting to authorize the Iraq war."
“What she’s somehow maintaining is my statement could be construed as not having asked what the meeting was about. I didn’t say these guys were going to come over for a cup of coffee some afternoon,” he said. “From what I heard, the point was, well, I wouldn’t do that because it might allow leaders like Hugo Chavez to score propaganda points. I think that is absolutely wrong.”
"He likened the position to a continuation of the Bush administration diplomatic policies," the Quad City Times writes.
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Veteran Republican operative Rich Galen has signed on as a senior advisor to Fred Thompson, who is exploring a bid for the GOP presidential nomination. We are also hearing that Bob Stevenson, former Sen. Bill Frist's communications director has signed on as an advisor.
Galen, author of the popular political cyber column MULLINGS is well known in GOP circles for his savvy political communications skills. He often provides political analysis on CNN.
“Assuming he gets into the race,” Galen said, “I think Fred Thompson may well be the best combination of insider-outsider experience and possess the kind of new ideas that don’t exist in either party.”
Thompson is expected to make a formal announcement after Labor Day.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
In addition to rolling out former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to comment today on Hillary Clinton's response at last night's debate over to her response about meeting with the leaders of Syria, Cuba, Venezuela, etc., the Clinton campaign just issued a memo hitting Obama for his own remark.
"There is a clear difference between the two approaches these candidates are taking: Senator Obama has committed to presidential-level meetings with some of the world's worst dictators without precondition during his first year in office. Senator Clinton is committed to vigorous diplomacy but understands that it is a mistake to commit the power and prestige of America’s presidency years ahead of time by making such a blanket commitment."
Video: Is Clinton still the Democratic front-runner?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Courtney Kube at the Pentagon
(Editor's note: We will be frequently asking various experts from NBC News to help us with policy reality checks, particularly on the issues of the military. Here's some fact-checking from last night from Courtney Kube at the Pentagon).
Sen. Barack Obama said that he wants to begin a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, and have all combat troops out by March 31st. Current U.S. military planners estimate that it will take a minimum of 9 months to withdraw all 157,000 troops from Iraq - and that would be under "permissive conditions" (not in the middle of combat operations), which is NOT the situation there now. To turn over bases, ship out all U.S. military equipment, and draw down forces (in other words, to clean up the country before they leave it) would take about 2 years -- again, that would be under permissive conditions.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) may return to the Senate this fall, his wife told the
Rapid City Journal. She said she also believes a return to the Senate would speed her husband’s recovery, fueling speculation he will likely seek reelection in 2008."When he came home from the
hospital, he made giant leaps forward that first week," Barbara Johnson said. "I think the same thing would happen once he gets back in the office and on the (Senate) floor with his colleagues and friends."
Johnson had to have emergency brain surgery in December to correct a potentially fatal condition, which produced bleeding in his brain and stroke-like symptoms.
From NBC's Chuck ToddYou've heard the expression, "everything's been said, but not everyone has said it," well, I think there are two things about last night that haven't been said yet. Then again, given the number of political analysts on the web these days, I'm probably wrong about that.
--
1. Experience. How frustrating is it for Biden/Dodd/Richardson that Clinton and Obama are spatting in such a high profile way over what constitutes "experience"? And How is it that this is an important part of the debate between Clinton and Obama and the three guys who have longer resumes than either frontrunner (or the guy in third place with the Southern accent), getting short shrift? If Biden/Dodd/Richardson can't catch fire now when there seems to be an interest in how much experience is necessary in the next Democratic nominee, then when will they catch fire? Where's Jon Lovitz when we need him? He could play Biden/Dodd/Richardson in the "SNL" debates and simply mutter: "how am I losing to these guys."
Video: The presidential race is far from over says Dodd
-- 2. Censure. Did we really have a "debate" last night that included four sitting U.S. Senators and not ONE of them was asked about Russ Feingold's censure measure?
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroSenate Minority Leader
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) might get a real challenge in his 2008 reelection bid. Kentucky Attorney General
Greg Stumbo formed a “testing the waters” committee, called McConnell "out of touch with Kentucky" and is considering running, reports the
Louisville Courier-Journal.
McConnell, in his fifth term, has taken heat from all sides for sticking with President Bush on Iraq and initially on immigration -- before he ultimately voted against the measure. Stumbo will likely look to capitalize particularly on immigration in the conservative state. But Stumbo could have his own problems with a 2001 lawsuit by a woman, who claimed he had fathered her child while he married to another woman and was not paying child support. DNA tests showed Stumbo was, in fact, the father and he then began paying child support. He also opposed tougher drunken-driving laws in 1991 as a member of the Kentucky General Assembly and then “pleaded guilty to public intoxication and paid a $100 fine after his car ran into a ditch.”
And McConnell has raised a record-breaking amount of money for the race -- $7.6 million with $5.7 million cash on hand.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Earlier, we noted Obama appeared to sweep the focus groups -- not true. Clinton won a Survey USA instanta-poll and tied in a focus group in Nevada that CNN conducted.
The Survey USA poll showed Clinton won the debate with 39%, Obama was next with 15%, then Biden with 14%, then Edwards with 10%. She also won on the question, “Who’s the best Democratic candidate?” Here’s a full breakdown of the poll.
The Nevada focus group had Bill Richardson and Hillary Clinton in a tie with six votes each. Obama was next followed by John Edwards
Also, Senior Clinton Adviser Howard Wolfson appeared this morning on MSNBC with Tim Russert during the network’s “Super Tuesday” coverage. He pointed out the difference between Clinton and Obama on the issue of meeting with dictators and defended Clinton’s stance that it’s not realistic to pull troops out of Iraq immediately.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Former Clinton Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said on a conference call with reporters that she thought Hillary Clinton's answer at last night's debate on meeting with dictators "showed she had an understanding of the whole process. It is necessary to have lower-level people make the initial contact to clear the brush away."During last night's debate, Clinton said she would not meet with dictatorial leaders "without preconditions" in her first year as president. In contrast, Obama answered that he would.
The Obama campaign today sent out a memo, claiming Clinton "reversed herself last night, disagreeing with Senator Obama's assertion that we should use every tool at the president's disposal to address problems before they become threats."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** A Star Was Born: The star of last night’s debate -- outside the real Obama Girl and one of the actors from Entourage, who both strolled around the spin room -- was the format. And we mean that as a positive: It was a great forum and a wonderful change of pace from what we've seen before. What’s more, the YouTube questions were quite good, and CNN did a good job with timing. But, and this is a BIG but, it was not a debate. Our main criticism was the moderator and his lack of understanding when news was about to break. Anderson Cooper (who's never been mistaken for a political junkie) missed a HUGE opportunity to give all of the TV networks and political reporters a chance to air/write a Clinton vs. Obama lead when he didn’t follow up with Clinton after Obama jabbed her on her war vote. That's the down side of an event that is so reliant on a technological format: The news being made gets lost. For all the fun that this format created, the candidates never actually debated.
 |
|
Video: NBC's Chuck Todd offers his first read on last night's debate
*** Clinton: She did nothing to lose her front-runner status. Obama had to go out of his way to take a shot at her (and then the moderator didn’t follow up). The contrast between Obama's answer and Clinton's on the question of if they would meet with controversial world leaders was the difference between someone running for the Democratic nomination and someone running for commander-in-chief. She got the better of him on that one (see today’s Miami Herald for proof). But on further reflection, one could argue her answer -- at least compared with Obama’s -- also seemed like something you’d hear from the current White House. And the Obama camp has passed around news clippings with past quotes from Clinton calling for engagement with Syria, Iran, and North Korea -- especially this one: ” I think it is a terrible mistake for our president to say he will not talk with bad people.”
*** Obama: While Clinton bested him on that one question (and it was important because it exemplified her experience argument), Obama has really improved from his earlier performances -- he's much better answering questions in 60 seconds, and he did a very good job tonight of getting key parts of his biography in his answers. Perhaps more importantly, he unanimously won the post-debate instant-polls. Why did Obama do so much better in the various focus groups, but Clinton did better among the pundits? It's realism vs. idealism on display. While the chattering class watches these debates with an eye on the general election, many of us may very well underestimate the pull of idealism among Democratic primary voters. Also, Obama may have also done better in the focus groups, because the last 30 minutes of the debate were his strongest -- and last impressions can have a greater influence on these people.
Video: Gravel and Obama spar on who will affect the most change
*** Edwards: He had his moments. His story about the man who couldn't get the operation in order to talk until he was 50 was riveting. And his “Hair” video is going to get plenty of play today. Yet maybe it's just us, but the debate seemed to separate Clinton and Obama from everyone else. Also, is his campaign going to get negative feedback for suggesting that he didn’t like Clinton’s outfit (when asked what he likes and doesn’t like about her)? It seemed innocent enough, but some women may have viewed the shot as having a tinge of sexism.
Video: Candidates trade gentle barbs to wrap debate
*** The Rest: Of the candidates not named Obama or Clinton, Biden probably had the best night. He was passionate when necessary and blunt when called for -- he was the straight talker on that stage Monday night. Richardson was better but didn't get much of an opportunity. Dodd, with the limited time he got, was strong as well. In fact, everyone was better last night. Practice makes perfect.
*** Ames, Here We Come: While the Democrats were debating, the second-tier Republicans were busy beating each other up in advance of the Ames Straw Poll. There's a fascinating underground campaign going on in Iowa between Brownback and Tancredo -- but will anyone pay attention?
*** On The Trail: Brownback holds a fundraiser in San Antonio, TX; Clinton participates in a forum on energy and the environment in New Hampshire; Edwards campaigns in South Carolina before heading to Georgia for a “Small Change for Big Change” fundraiser; Giuliani meets with voters in Riverside, CA; Huckabee stumps in Iowa; Hunter is in DC, where he speaks at a Christians in Cable Breakfast; McCain hits fundraisers in Michigan and Illinois; Obama is in New York City; and Richardson campaigns in Iowa.
*** Another Super Tuesday: For coverage of these events -- and much, much more -- tune into MSNBC’s all-day “Super Tuesday” coverage of politics.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 18 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 41 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 88 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 105 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 116 days
Countdown to Iowa: 173 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 195 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 469 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 546 days
One of our favorite dial testers, Rich Thau, had a group in New Hampshire of Democrats and indies. And like the CNN and Fox focus groups, his survey had Obama doing the best (in terms of improvement from pre-debate to post-debate; Obama and Edwards tied with the highest post-debate score).
Video: Handicapping the Democratic primary
We asked Thau about one specific moment -- the two answers Clinton and Obama gave to the Bush-Clinton fatigue question. Thau tells First Read: "Clinton spiked to 80 on first sentence about it being a problem Bush was elected in 2000.” But: “Proud of husband's record dips to 70s. Any one of us could be a better president than current President spikes back above 80.”
Obama: "...who has track record to bring about change" scores at 70."... who can overcome the special interests" spikes to mid 70s (high point of his answer)." So it looks like both answers worked...
CONTINUED >>
EDWARDS: Yesterday, we failed to highlight a very personal profile of Elizabeth Edwards from
Saturday's Wall Street Journal. It's something many folks should read.
RICHARDSON: The campaign is up with a
new TV ad that focuses on Iraq and notes what he did benefit-wise for National Guard troops.
BROWNBACK:
If you are wondering why Brownback is getting so aggressive on Romney of late, we've got three words for you: "Ames Straw Poll." The latest Brownback attack on Romney has to do with Romney's changing stance on gay rights, according to
CBN’s Brody. Meanwhile, Romney's not alone in getting attacked these days. Brownback’s campaign has been making
phone calls questioning Tancredo’s position on abortion rights because one of Tancredo’s campaign contributors formed a Michigan chapter of Planned Parenthood in the 1970s.
A Tancredo spokesman tells First Read the congressman was genuinely hurt and surprised when they played a recording of one of the calls for Tancredo -- particularly because Tancredo considered Brownback a friend. First Read also contacted the man who gave the donation to Tancredo, Dr. John Tanton, who told us, “I think it’s ridiculous.” Tanton, who is also the founder of the hard-line immigration group the Foundation for American Immigration Reform, said he supports Tancredo on immigration -- not on abortion. “If you’re going to be real pure and take money from only people who agree with you on every issue,” Tanton sad, “you’re going to have a pretty short campaign.”
CONTINUED >>
The Politico has some behind-the-scenes on the efforts by both Obama and Clinton to court members of Congress. Remember, on the Democratic side, members of Congress aren’t just delegates --they are SUPER-delegates, with powers beyond your imagination! Actually, they simply have the power to change their presidential preference at any moment. So it seems to us superdelegates live their life like a finger in the wind, never knowing where to turn to, before the primaries set in.
Live free and shoot machine guns? Apparently Manchester City Republicans are planning a fundraiser at a firing range next month. On Aug. 5, these Republicans will arm donors with Uzis, M-16 rifles and other automatic weapons for a target practice at a local firing range. Here's the best part: All of the GOP candidates are being invited to attend. The downside? The fundraiser is the same day as the next GOP debate set for Iowa. We can only hope some of the candidates decide to fly to Manchester for this.
Both Congress and Bush are unpopular, but Bush has lost the trust of the country on the war, according to a new
Washington Post/ABC poll. "As the president and Congress spar over war policy, both receive negative marks from the public for their handling of the situation in Iraq. But by a large margin, Americans trust Democrats rather than the president to find a solution to a conflict that remains enormously unpopular. And more than six in 10 in the new poll said Congress should have the final say on when to bring the troops home."
CONTINUED >>
NBC’s Ken Strickland reports that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales will testify before a feisty Senate Judiciary Committee at 9:30 am ET. While the session is billed as a general "oversight" hearing, it will likely focus on various controversies within the Justice Department he runs, such as the firing of nine US Attorneys and the warrantless surveillance program. Committee Chairman Pat Leahy may have set the tone for the hearing with a letter he sent to Gonzales last week. Leahy said he told Gonzales that when he last appeared before the committee in April, he often responded to questions "that you could 'not recall'... the most conservative count had you failing to provide answers well over 60 times."
CONTINUED >>
The Obama camp was quick out of the gate -- about 30 minutes after the debate ended -- with a press release containing a transcript of a report of CNN's focus group watching the debate.
Wolf Blitzer: Mary Snow is out in Manchester, New Hampshire, the state with the first primary watching this with some voters who are undecided, Mary, and what kind of sense did you get from those voters?
Mary Snow: Well, Wolf, there's a surprise here tonight. We're here with 24 Democrats, independents, who thought that Senator Hillary Clinton would be the best performer here tonight, but the results that we just got in, this is a focus group; show that Barack Obama got the most favorable in terms of the best performance from the 24 people who are here tonight. Of course, it's unscientific and coming in second senator Joe Biden and third John Edwards. Again, this is all unscientific results from this focus group, but clearly throughout this debate Senator Barack Obama was showing some favorable responses to his answers. Some of the things that he got favorable responses were when he talked about fighting lobbyists, particularly on health care. Wolf.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The scene in the post-debate spin room was a familiar one. Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich spoke to reporters. The front-runners did not -- but had key campaign aides and surrogates filling in instead. Yet there was one big difference: Hollywood stars also made an appearance.
When we walked into the room, we immediately spotted the actor who plays director Billy Walsh in "Entourage" (Rhys Coiro). Obama Girl was also there, too. In fact, we spied one network correspondent, who exclaimed to his camera crew: "There's Obama Girl -- let's get her."
Admittedly, none were true A-list stars. But we Washington reporters are suckers for any kind of Hollywood actor -- or even a YouTube actress.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWith so many debates and forums, there are two things that matter, overall impressions or stand-out moments. The star of this event was clearly the format, and I mean that as a positive. This was a great forum, a wonderful change of pace from what we've had before. These were good questions and CNN did a good job with timing. My only critique of the format was the moderator and his lack of understanding when a mini-debate was about to break out. Anderson Cooper (who's never been mistaken for a political junkie) missed a HUGE opportunity to give all of the TV nets and the media a chance to air/write a Clinton v. Obama lead. That's the down side of an event that is so reliant on a complicated technology format, the news being made gets lost. For all the fun that this format created, the candidates never did, um, debate.
Now, as for the overall impressions, Clinton did nothing to lose her frontrunner status. Obama had to go out of his way to take a shot at her and the moderator missed the shot and denied us a BIG moment. Clinton's answer about when/if she'd meet with certain controversial world leaders/dictators. The contrast between Obama's answer and Clinton's answer was the difference between someone running for the Dem nomination and someone running for Commander in Chief. She got the better of him on that one.
This isn't to say Obama wasn't solid, he was. In fact, he got stronger as the debate wore on. She was simply better on that one question and it was important because it exemplified her experience argument. All that said, Obama has really improved. He's much better answering questions in 60-seconds than he was in the earlier debates. He didn't get his shot off at Clinton in a way that got Cooper's attention. Is that Cooper's fault or Obama's? I say it's Cooper's but maybe Obama could have delivered the punch harder. BTW, Obama did a very good job tonight of getting key parts of his personal biography in his answers. In previous debates, his answers seemed a bit impersonal, tonight Obama came across much better and viewers got to know him a bit.
One more important Clinton-Obama exchange to highlight: the question about Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton fatigue. She had a great retort re: the 2000 election. But Obama's answer was a very good closing statement and trumped her answer because he attacked it seriously. How voters view the two answers Clinton and Obama gave, I think, will determine who the Democrats nominate. I'd love to see side-by-side dial-testing on those two answers to THAT one question.
As for the rest of the field: Edwards started the evening on the defensive (thanks to the early questions he got), but had his moments. His story about the man who couldn't get the operation in order to talk until he was 50 was riveting. But of the candidates not named Obama or Clinton, Biden probably had the best night. He was passionate when necessary and blunt when called for. He was the straight talker on that stage Monday night. Richardson was better but didn't get much of an opportunity. Dodd, with the limited time he got, was strong as well. But one always got the impression that Dodd had to crash the party in order to get attention.
Of the YouTube submissions: Dodd's was the most memorable for me. Edwards' video becomes better on second viewing but was hard to get when first haired, er, aired on CNN. None of the others were as memorable.
UPDATE: There was a legitimate question in the comments about what moment I was talking that Cooper missed. Obama criticized Clinton for being late to the game in her criticism of the Pentagon for NOT having a plan for withdrawal. My apologies for the lack of detail.
From NBC's Mark Murray
It took a while before we ever got a question on Iraq, but it was in this debate where we saw the sharpest differences between the candidates on the war. Obama finally went after Clinton's war vote. After she talked about her fight with the Pentagon over withdrawal plans, Obama said withdrawal plans -- now -- are good to discuss. But more important was thinking about such plans before voting for the war.
Richardson, meanwhile, continually stressed his plan to withdraw troops from Iraq within six months, with no residual forces. Biden talked about his plan to divide Iraq into three parts (Shiite, Sunni, and Kurd). And Kucinich and Gravel emphasized their anti-war stances.
From NBC's Chuck ToddDid CNN do Obama a favor by making his YouTube the last candidate video?
From NBC's Chuck ToddSomebody did well in debate prep! (Thank you B.B.?) That Clinton answer on the 28 years, same two families in charge, was a good one. I'm still convinced it could be a problem for her in the long run ("it" being the issue of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton fatigue), but she did well tonight on the question.
Hillary's response? "I think it was a problem that Bush was elected. I'm running on my own merits, but I am very proud of my husband's accomplishments."
Is there a better prepared candidate?
From NBC's Mark Murray
It took four debates, but we finally got a question about if Clinton wins the nomination, then the general election, and then a second term -- the country could have 28 straight years of Bushes or Clintons in the White House. Clinton sidestepped the question, delivering a blow to Bush instead. "I think it is a problem that Bush won the election in 2000," she said. "I always thought someone else won in that election."
Clinton added that she is running on her own merits, but I'm "proud of my husband's record as president."
Obama followed, "Who's got a track record to bring about change?... Who can overcome the special interest in Washington?"
From NBC's Chuck ToddWe're getting toward the end of this debate but on the issue of health care, Edwards appeared to get the best of both Clinton and Obama on the issue. Until that answer, it wasn't clear Edwards was going to have one memorable moment.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Gravel and Kucinich were the only ones who said they DIDN'T arrive in Charleston for the debate in a private jet.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroOn health care, "I've got a plan; John's got a plan. Hopefully everyone on this stage will have a plan." Hmm.
Obama then took a shot at Edwards' health care plan.
Edwards' "When are we going to do anything about this?" was a strong plead.
He did his Ryan Seacrest thing -- asking people to text "Peace."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Is this format the new town hall debate? These are prepared questions, which eliminates the robotic, nervous town hall questioners. Maybe it's because it's my generation, but I have always liked being able to have a little fun mixed with seriousness.
Traditional "town hall" formats may stick around for this general election cycle and the next and the next. But it might be the minority when my generation gets to the age where they actually vote.
From NBC's Mark MurrayHe used the metaphor of digging out of the hole of Iraq -- and the narrarator was the guy from the movie trailers. Nice!
From NBC's Chuck ToddOverall, as I've said earlier, I like this format very much. The lone downside? There's been ZERO engagement between the candidates. A few times the candidates wanted to debate but the moderator wouldn't allow it.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroI think maybe all of the questions for debates should be asked by the YouTube comics. Those were back to back hilarious questions on serious topics.
Thanks, Dennis Kucinich for bringing the mood down.
Seriously, this is a time during which many of the debates have slowed down. And at least those questions made me laugh and didn't make me reach for another snack.
NBC's Andrew MertenUpdating Chuck's observation about the E. Edwards/B. Clinton mentions: It's now 3 to 1, Elizabeth (although the third was by John Edwards).
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroAll of the other candidates strayed from their campaign ads and had some fun with their ads. Gravel's was different because he wasn't angry or frustrated. But Richardson's was same ol', same ol' resume stuff.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Was a riff of the "job interview" TV ads he's been running.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroMaybe if Gravel would be more like he was in his video -- calm, thoughtful -- maybe he'd be taken more seriously.
From NBC's Mark Murray Kucinich said that viewers could text "Peace." And he said it just like American Idol's Ryan Seacrest.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI'm taking away the praise I gave to Biden earlier about not yelling at my TV. He just yelled at me through my TV.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...to the top. Richardson wants to be challenged. Biden took it. And he is showing his foreign policy/Iraq chops. Biden looked over at Richardson and continued to look at him. Richardson did not return the look. Clinton agreed with Biden. Biden was chomping at the bit to respond to Kucinich.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe potential brilliance of user-generated questions was on display with this question to Clinton about whether a woman president would get taken seriously by Arab states who regard women as 2nd-class citizens. A member of the big media would have been criticized for asking that question, but the YouTuber cannot be attacked so easily.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton is always focused on the general election when it comes to foreign policy questions. Her answer on who she would meet with in terms of controversial foreign leaders was an example of how she's having a better time selling experience than anyone else on that stage. That was a Commander-in-Chief answer. Obama's answer was fine but she found the hole in his answer (propaganda) and filled it brilliantly.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Asked if the candidates would meet with foreign leaders from Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, etc... Obama said that he would, contrasting his foreign policy with Bush's. But Clinton said she would NOT promise to meet with them, although she said her Administration would reach out to them. "I don't want to be used for propaganda," she said.
From NBC's Chuck ToddOK, Obama just made the news of the debate, he just went after what he claims is a late call by Clinton on the demand for withdrawal plans from the Pentagon. Interesting that CNN's Cooper didn't notice the attack and allow Clinton to respond to allow a mini-debate to break out. Can't wait for the press release traffic on THAT one.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAll of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd tier candidates have been very good tonight. They are all improved which just shows that all of these forums and debates have been good practice. Now, as for the 4th tier (Gravel and Kucninich), they provided more of the same.
From NBC's Mark MurrayReferring to Clinton's tiff with the Pentagon over plans for withdrawal, Obama said that withdrawal plans are good now, but that the US government should have asked those kind of questions before the country went to war.
From NBC's Mark MurrayAnother clip the GOP will be playing tomorrow: "The Democrats have failed the American public."
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton again has used the Pentagon letter to her advantage. She is flexing her newly found anti-war muscles and the letter has been her Creatine -- so to speak.
Obama took shots at the White House, but didn't give a lot of specifics on the logistics and implementation of redeployment.
This is Biden's question. He wanted this one pushed. He'd love to go on about partitioning.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Turning to the question of Iraq -- finally! -- Anderson Cooper referred to a Citadel grad, Shane Childers, who died in Iraq. His picture was on the big screen in the debate hall.
When the camera turned to the candidates, some were scribbling notes, except for Edwards (in that particular screen shot), who just stared at Childers' photo. It was a pretty powerful moment.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI can't wait for some focus group results but I bet Joe Biden's Darfur answer was a home run. He was conversational and outraged without yelling at the TV. It was the rare combination of a style and substance 1-2 punch.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroAnderson Cooper told Gravel, "Actually, no" when Gravel asked if he could have more time since he's had less time to speak.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro"Where we can we should." With that, he overshadowed even Richardson, who was strong.
From NBC's Mark MurrayWe missed mentioning this earlier, but the Clinton campaign just released an email with the link to its
YouTube.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From a general election standpoint, Obama answered the gay marriage question pretty deftly. He focused on the law and civil unions which is more popular than the phrase "gay marriage."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Had the song "Hair" playing....pretty clever.
*** Update *** Here's the actual video.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDidn't Hillary Clinton vote for the war in Iraq on the basis, in part, that there were WMD in Iraq? But her YouTube debate "ad" highlighted one of the left's talking points of "failures" of the Bush administration -- that there were "zero" WMD found. We've noted her metamorphosis of sorts. Will any candidates hold her feet to the fire? And will it work? Or is the best person to define her, well, her.
From NBC's Chuck ToddNumber of Elizabeth Edwards mentions in this debate: 2. Number of Bill Clinton mentions: 1 (I think by Biden, btw). I'm counting on our own Andrew Merten to double check my work.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A North Carolina pastor, on YouTube, asked a question about John Edwards' position on gay marriage. As it turns out, the man was in the audience -- so Anderson Cooper asked him whether Edwards answered his question. "Not like what I wuld have wanted to hear."
Why? Because people were moving around and he actually couldn't HEAR Edwards.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIs it just me or did John and Elizabeth Edwards give Clinton an incredible opportunity to concentrate on the women's vote tonight? It's something Clinton didn't need a lot of help with but may have only cemented her ability to connect to women voters. Clinton got an easy chance to talk about her ability to advocate for women, something the campaign is probably ecstatic about and something she would NOT have been able to do had she not been attacked by E. Edwards last week.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In the fuzziness, I think you could make out Obama laughing at/with Kucinich on the gay marriage question.
The tally:
Kucinich: Yes
Dodd: No, but civil unions
Richardson: No but for Civil unions and domestic partnership laws with marriage rights.
We haven't really seen where Obama stands. And can I just say, "Damn" to the question from the North Carolina pastor about whether or not Edwards can justify not being for gay marriage based on religion.
Edwards: I am on a journey about this issue.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIf I were working for a rival of either Clinton or Obama, I'd be a little upset that the first half of this debate has been centered around Clinton and Obama.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
AC sidestepped (as expected) the "are you black enough?" question by saying it's not my question. Jordan's question. Hey, CNN picked 'em. But so far, poignant questions. This is why you need to have questions that are specific.
Is she feminist enough?
Clinton: I am proud to be running as a woman. I'm not running because I'm a woman. She notes her experience.
She said experience again -- that's twice. "When I'm inaugurated," she said.
Tough questions: AC trying to keep Edwards on the question. Are you better on women than Hillary? Seems nervous answering it. Just me.
I think I have the strongest, boldest ideas.
Clinton: I have a great deal of admiration for Elizabeth Edwards. I have spent my life advocating for women's rights.
Sparks. Good cutaways. Clinton looked ready to pounce. Edwards clearly didn't want to hit.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Edwards was just asked about his wife's recent comments that her husband would be a better advocate for women than Clinton. He explained that what his wife meant was that since so many women are affected by poverty and by a low minimum wage -- he's been the one who has fought the hardest to change those things.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHow long did it take to get Bill Richardson involved? 20 minutes? 22 minutes? My laptop clock is fast but it says it is 7:25.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...it's Bill Richardson. There he is. Not much face time so far for the Gov. And someone tell him to tuck in his ear piece. Looks like some kind of fake ear.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJohn Edwards answered the reparations question about as well as he could considering his stance on the issue itself. That mortgage example was fascinating and thought provoking. Obama ducked the question pretty well because, correct me if I'm wrong, but he didn't really say if he was for or against reparations. I guess Obama is against reparations.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroIn the words of Ben Stein: "Anyone, anyone?"
Obama huge cheers for what seemed like a dodge. "The kind of reparations we need in South Carolina are in the schools."
Kucinich, ah ha. He's the only Dem for slave reparations.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI've been a quiet potential critic of this debate for some weeks but so far, I like it.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Edwards said no, but that there "are other things we can do."
Obama said the reparations we need are investment for schools like in South Carolina.
*** Update *** Kucinich was the only to one to say he favors reparations for slavery.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...the bunny? According to Dodd. What is this the Super Bowl with these free candidate spots?
None the less, kind of funny.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBiden picks Chuck Hagel as a Republican he could have as his VP. Hagel, of course, is some of Washington's dark horse pick for VP for either Clinton or Obama. Hagel is to the Republicans what Lieberman is to the Democrats.
Both Biden and Edwards said Hagel would be a good veep choice -- for a Republican, sort of.
From NBC's Mark MurrayWas a spoof on Dodd's white hair....
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro...still angry. Obama had a solid response to Gravel's attack on bundling and got cheers from the audience.
By the way, notice CNN's "jump cuts" -- the ultra closeup on Gravel's face, etc.
From NBC's Mark MurrayHe just took a shot at the Democratic front-runners. "You are not going to see any change if these people are elected." Has Gravel turned into a GOP plant? The RNC couldn't have said it better.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAlready, both Obama and Clinton are both doing a better job of getting their biographies in their answers early on. Obama immediately went into his non-Washington experience and Clinton talked about being ready on day 1 to implement the change.
From NBC's Mark MurrayWhile Obama talked about change, Clinton emphasized her trump card -- experience -- in her first question. "I think the Democrats are united for change," she said. "This issue is which of us are ready to lead from Day One."
From NBC's Chuck ToddFascinating question to Kucinich because CNN allowed the questioner to create a first tier: Clinton and Obama.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroAnderson Cooper is coming out fighting with a little biting humor and sarcasm, Senator Biden. Obama seemed a little put off by Cooper coming right at him with the "inexperience" question. So far, Cooper is doing a good job peppering the candidates. Should be a quick moving debate.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThanks to Senator Chris Dodd for letting viewers know where the debate is taking place (The Citadel). With all this YouTube stuff, I forgot.
From NBC's Mark MurrayFirst question tonight, which first went to Dodd and then to Obama, was right down the middle for Obama -- on change. "Washington has to change," he said. It's that point his advisers have told he'll touch on a lot tonight.
From NBC's Chuck ToddA question we have to get off our chest: Is YouTube a media organization or a corporate entity? Could another network gotten away with, say, a Blackberry-CNN debate or an I-Phone-CNN debate? We're not just talking about the blurring of the line of new media and old, but what about the corporate world and the media world? I know, call me a G.E. pot, but, I feel like the question hasn't been debated enough about whether YouTube-Google, essentially, bought the title sponsorship of this debate?
From NBC's Chuck ToddSome quick early handicapping. A solid campaign source wanted to make sure we understood that John Edwards was not going to go on the attack tonight. There had been lots of speculation yesterday and today that with more polls coming out showing Edwards slipping out of the so-called first tier that he'd be the aggressor tonight. Well, we've been assured, he'd be no more aggressive than he has been in previous gatherings. Should be interesting tonight to see if the lower-tier candidates decide to take shots at Edwards for trying to weed them out of the debates.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumAt tonight's CNN/YouTube Democratic debate, technology takes the stage front and center, and the Obama campaign is taking advantage of technology to promote his appearance at the debate -- via his text messaging service. We received the following text from the Obama campaign at 3:12 this afternoon:
"Watch Barack debate tonight live on CNN! 7pm EDT. REPLY back with your name and your thoughts during & after the debate. We will post to our blog & discuss."
All the Obama campaign needs now is to ask supporters to send their thoughts via cell phone video, and the campaign could post those on Obama's YouTube page -- keeping pace with the theme of the evening.
From NBC's Mark Murray
CHARLESTON, SC -- By just looking around here in the press filing compound, we can already tell this is going to be a very different debate. On the stage in the so-called "spin room," we spotted several Google employees lounging on beanbags while blogging -- which isn't a sight the Washington political press corps sees every day.
And there's even a snack room for the press that's been Google-fied: It's filled with tons of candy bins (storing M&Ms, sour patch kids, and gummy worms), a pool table, and tons of coffee. "If I worked at Google, I'd weigh 1,000 pounds," we heard one journalist say while munching on peanut M&Ms.
So far, so good.
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
Fred “I’m STILL not a candidate” Thompson is
raising money tonight in Alabama at a $1,000-per-couple event. Thompson is reporting his fundraising on July 31st so there's a real push in Thompson world to raise a bunch of money before he has to report his "testing the waters" committee to the IRS.
From NBC's Mark Murray
CHARLESTON, SC -- First Read is now here at The Citadel, the site of tonight's CNN/YouTube debate. I'll be live-blogging this Democratic debate from the nicely air-conditioned (!) filing center, while Chuck and Domenico will be doing the same from DC. So, beginning at 7:00 pm ET, be sure to check in early an often for instant updates and analysis.Here are some notes on the debate, per CNN. The candidates will be staged (from left to right):
Gravel,
Dodd,
Edwards,
Clinton,
Obama,
Richardson,
Biden, and
Kucinich. Also, more than 3,000 YouTube videos have been submitted for questions. And the candidates' own YouTubes will appear throughout the debate.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
As First Read noted last week, GOP dark horse candidate Ron Paul now has more cash on hand than once-supposed frontrunner John McCain. While the Texas congressman hasn’t held nearly as financially demanding nationwide schedule as McCain, he has developed a grassroots following that aids in spreading name recognition and raising money. We, at the NBC Political Unit, were interested in Paul’s grassroot support -- which has been dubbed “The Ron Paul Revolution” -- and decided to attend an organizational meeting/pizza party here in Washington to see how the group operates.
Meeting on a rooftop deck of a downtown Washington apartment building, about 50 Paul supporters -- relying heavily on the internet for their organizational and social networking -- got together Friday evening to discuss campaign volunteering activities, make a YouTube video, and of course, raise some money for their candidate (bringing in $2,500 that night). Jeff Frazee, the 24-year-old organizer of the event, who will soon be starting as a youth coordinator for the official campaign, said that spreading name recognition is a primary goal of the group, and that this meeting served mainly as a meet-and-greet for members and to plan future activities, such as handing out Paul pamphlets at subway stops and baseball games. “The more people learn about Ron Paul, the higher his polling numbers go,” said Frazee, adding that the inverse is true Republican front-runner Giuliani.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Brownback fired away from the second tier …again at Romney -- this time questioning his support of the Boy Scouts. And he is even swinging away at Tancredo.The Brownback camp, which has sent out almost weekly e-mails criticizing Romney’s positions on various issues, hits this time with the headline, “Romney Hostile to Boy Scout Leadership and Principles: Supports gay scout leaders, was cold to Scout participation in Olympics.”
They cite that Romney said in his 1994 Senate run against Ted Kennedy, “I feel that all people should be allowed to participate in the Boy Scouts regardless of their sexual orientation."
They also dig up a quote from Boy Scout official Marty Latimer, who claimed Romney shut them out of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. “We don't understand what's wrong,” Latimer said. “They just don't want us and won't talk to us.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Libby Leist
At the State Department gaggle today, spokesman Sean McCormack addressed the Washington Post report from Saturday that said the US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, is pressing officials in Washington to grant immigrant visas to all Iraqis who have worked for the US government in Iraq. The Post reports Crocker sent a cable to the State Department warning that many of these Iraqis are targets of murder and kidnapping for their work with the United States and the embassy risks losing valuable employees if they can't be guaranteed future protection in the United States.
McCormack pushed back saying the U.S. was already working on this issue and he told reporters to "talk to Ryan (Crocker). I dont know what he had in mind." He said that Crocker's appeal was "basically a lap behind in terms of steps we're already taking"
McCormack admitted that he hadn't seen the cable but said it was "a bit stale" and several weeks old. "We've already been on top of the matter," he argued.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani is out defining himself as someone who gets things done when others say it's "impossible." Three 60-second radio ads entitled "
Out of Control," "
Will Do" and "
Garbage Can" will begin airing tomorrow in New Hampshire and Iowa. In them, he touts his record as mayor of New York City -- cutting crime, welfare rolls, taxes and spending. He says New York was once the "crime" and "welfare" capital of the world before he came along. He professes -- as he does in his Twelve Commitments -- to "restore fiscal discipline," "cut taxes" and "reform the tax code."
"Today's ads once again make clear Mayor Giuliani is the true fiscal conservative in this race with the track record to back it up, not just empty rhetoric," Giuliani Director of Strategy Brent Seaborn said in an e-mail release. Seaborn added that these "are the first of many ads our campaign will release in the months to come."
Here are the transcripts of the ads:
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Dem Debate No. 4: Tonight’s CNN/YouTube Democratic debate from Charleston, SC will feature the eight Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- responding to video questions submitted by the public. This debate, the first one of the cycle to be sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee and fourth one overall in the Dem race, begins at 7:00 pm ET. Will style trump substance? After all, technology is the star of tonight's debate, which makes normal debate expectations hard to assess. Many of the campaigns seem intent on taking a backseat to the technology. Still, expect the unexpected, right? It's YouTube, and one assumes CNN is going to take advantage of the fact that they can't be held responsible for the user questions. Will they cross some question lines that they wouldn't do with their own moderator? The candidates, we assume, have prepped for that outcome.
*** YouTube As A Weapon…: In recent years, the Internet has become an essential tool -- and even weapon -- in presidential campaigns. In 2000, campaign Web sites became ubiquitous. 2004 brought us the proliferation of political blogs, as well as the use of the Web to raise huge sums of money. And so far in the 2008 cycle, YouTube has become the latest Internet fixture in American politics, giving almost anyone the power to make their own campaign ads or immediately post a speech or gaffe. The examples are numerous: that anti-Hillary “1984” video, the ”I Feel Pretty” spoof on Edwards, and the tons of YouTubes (obviously posted by opponents) exposing a candidate’s flip-flops and controversial statements. How powerful has YouTube become? Without it, George Allen would still be in the US Senate and on the presidential campaign trail.
*** … And As A Barrel Of Fun: But YouTube also has become an instant source of entertainment and laughs in a business noted more for its nastiness. Even the most cynical of political observers have chuckled as Obama Girl, Hillary Girl, and Giuliani Girl have strutted their stuff online. They have made politics fun. Just check out something like Hardball’s campaign ad challenge.
*** The Anti-War Hillary: And just in time for tonight’s debate, there’s a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing Clinton with a sizable lead over Obama among Democrats, 45%-30%. Edwards comes in third at 12%, and Richardson fourth at 3%. Perhaps the most interesting result in the poll: Clinton “has a 51 percent to 29 percent lead over Obama among those in favor of a complete, immediate withdrawal.” As we’ve mentioned before, how Hillary has evolved in the last few months from the candidate with the biggest problem with Iraq to an anti-war candidate -- see her recent battle with the Pentagon, which was a media homerun -- might be the most underreported story of the campaign cycle so far. Indeed, save for fundraising, one can argue that Clinton has won every other invisible metric so far. A cynic may simply claim she's winning the pander primary (don’t miss her tough words on Yucca Mountain), but is that a bad thing right now?
VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd on Clinton's commanding lead in the newest poll
*** Censure Or Sensibility: The last time Russ Feingold proposed a censure resolution, there wasn't a full-fledged presidential campaign. Clearly, the issue will come up in tonight's debate (right, CNN? hint, hint). Since it’s a meaningless resolution, doesn't it make it easier for presidential candidates serving in the Senate to vote for it? Or because it's meaningless, does it make it easier to ignore? What will also be interesting is if Feingold's resolution sparks more coverage of polls that have shown a growing number of voters supportive of impeachment -- be it for Bush or Cheney.
*** What Happened To The Vitter Story? After an initial flurry of press -- from his press conference to his first day back at work in Washington -- the coverage of Vitter has come to a virtual standstill. In fact, Sean Hannity’s apparent call for his resignation late last week didn’t even advance the story. Are journalists and political opponents just keeping their powder dry for now? Or did Wendy Vitter scare us that much?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani gives a speech on energy in San Francisco; Huckabee, in Iowa, discusses health care; and McCain delivers remarks to the Economic Club of Southwest Michigan. Also, Gingrich gives a briefing at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in DC.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 19 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 42 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 89 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 106 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 117 days
Countdown to Iowa: 174 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 196 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 470 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 547 days
The
New York Times curtain-raises tonight’s CNN/YouTube debate from Charleston, SC. “People have sent in more than 2,000 online videos to YouTube.com, where they are posted… A scan of the videos submitted to YouTube shows most video-makers taking a straightforward approach, sitting at home and talking directly into the camera. The questions cover expected topics like health care, student loans and the crisis in Darfur, though some are asked in a provocative way. And many veer into unexpected territory.”
The Columbia State also tees up the debate.
The Washington Post notes that this is the first “official” Democratic debate. “And already, debate fatigue is setting in. The Democratic contenders have taken part in three ‘unofficial’ debates this year, on top of numerous other ‘forums’ sponsored by various political constituencies. The schedule is only going to get more demanding…”
In advance of tonight’s CNN/YouTube debate, Biden yesterday released a YouTube whacking Giuliani. Also, per his campaign, Biden will be holding a press conference at 11am with Force Protection Inc. and Protected Vehicles, Inc., two South Carolina-based companies, to provide an update on the production of mine resistant vehicles.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The campaign is finally spending some of that money it’s been hoarding for two quarters, with a slew of new staffers in the last few weeks being hired. More importantly,
Politico's Martin notes the campaign is now, well, full-fledged. "Just this week, the campaign has e-mailed 24 press releases, research documents and advisories to the national media—about twice as many as it would have sent in any given week earlier in the year."
On Sunday, the New York Times examined Giuliani’s record on race, especially when he was mayor of New York.
MCCAIN:
In a salt-in-the-wound story, the
Los Angeles Times heads to Arizona and finds a politically weakened McCain even in his home state. Speaking of piling on, the Wall Street Journal delves into the decision to have Rick Davis take over the McCain campaign and how companies associated with Davis are the ones benefiting the most. "Consultants' self-dealing and favors for friends are fairly common in campaigns. But current and former McCain advisers say they saw Mr. Davis's dealings and potential conflicts of interest as particularly troubling. Both companies in question, they say, were start-ups with one customer -- the campaign. The Davis-Manafort firm's lobbying work was a source of tension before the campaign, insiders say, given that the senator's image as a crusader against special interests made him vulnerable to critics looking for hypocrisy. A sore point was the work the firm did for a pro-Kremlin politician opposed by Mr. McCain and the U.S. government: current Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. A National Security Council official brought it to McCain aides' attention last year, they say."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: New York Post gossip columnist Liz Smith is smitten with Biden. “If I had ever met Sen. Biden, I'd have given him a big hug; he's so handsome, and the best foreign-policy expert in the Senate. He'd make a great Hillary running mate.”
CLINTON:
Here’s the latest
Washington Post/ABC poll, which has Clinton with a double-digit lead over Obama. While we're skeptical of declaring anything about this primary campaign before Labor Day, one can't help but notice the progress Clinton is making in every poll that's been released over the last month. This latest national poll only reaffirms her frontrunner position. The lone downside? It will make the eventual closing of the gap over the next few months seem newsier than perhaps it is.
Come on, did you really think that MoDo was NOT going to weigh on the gender fight between Clinton and Edwards? Still, we'll admit, we expected something a bit saltier.
Since so many in the media made a big deal out of the fact that a woman lost the presidential race in France earlier this year, does that mean we'll see the same level of coverage of India's historic election of a woman?
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post chronicles the growing number of presidential visitors to the Google HQs.
For First Read coverage of this year's Google "caucus" phenomenon, click here.
Add Colorado to Tsunami Tuesday. State Democrats voted to move their caucuses up to February 5.
The
Los Angeles Times writes that liberal Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold “said Sunday that he would ‘shortly’ propose two censure resolutions against President Bush and his administration for the war in Iraq, even as the top Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate promptly predicted that the effort would fail… ‘This administration has assaulted the Constitution,’ Feingold told NBC's ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘We need to have on the historical record some kind of indication that what has happened here is … disastrous.’” Here’s Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s comments on Feingold’s proposal, per NBC’s Abby Livingston, who covered Reid’s stakeout after his appearance on CBS yesterday: "We have so many things to do, and the American people already know that President Bush is the worst president we've ever had. And I'm not sure we need a censure motion to confirm that.”
Did the Pentagon really order up a Madison Ave.-style study of the marketing campaign of the U.S. military operations around the world? Really? Don't members of government realize these studies always leak and never work?
Former Lieberman communications director Dan Gerstein writes about the impeachment question and notes it will confront Speaker Pelosi today via Cindy Sheehan protest.
The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes gave a wet kiss to the Congressional GOP minority, calling their effectiveness one of the biggest surprises of 2007. Most importantly, he notes that the two GOP leaders (Boehner and McConnell) are keeping their caucuses together better than many expected.
The New York Times front-pages the showdown between the Democratic-controlled Congress and the White House over expanding health insurance for low-income children. “House Democrats hope to portray the issue as a fight pitting the interests of children and older Americans against tobacco and insurance companies. The White House says the Democratic proposals would distort the original intent of the children’s program, cause a big increase in federal spending and adversely affect older Americans who are happy with the extra benefits they receive from private health plans.”
Speaking of health care, Michael Moore appears on Hardball today.
From NBC's Jenny Anzelmo and Carrie Dann
Giuliani just wrapped up a speech to a group of fire fighters in Myrtle Beach, SC. This speech comes after the release of "Urban Legend," a video by the International Association of Fire Fighters, in which relatives of 9/11 victims attacked Giuliani's handling of 9/11. Giuliani said in his address how he went to “every big fire in New York” to see what could be learned from the situation, and what he could do to help the fire fighters in the future. When asked if he had seen the video, he told reporters he had not, and that "I understand people's anger -- sometimes peoples anger about that and frustration about it, sometimes there's political motive. It's all different things, people can make their own judgment about it."
Giuliani also made a point to stress the connection between 9/11 and last month’s deadly fire in South Carolina. "We unite because we have been through the same thing... We also understand what you are going to go through next month and next year... It doesn't get any easier. You just learn from it."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The latest in the controversy over that Pentagon letter to
Hillary Clinton... Clinton and
John Kerry held a conference call with reporters this afternoon to announce legislation that requires the Pentagon to brief -- classified if necessary -- the Congress with contingency plans for redeploying troops from Iraq. Clinton said she was forced to draw up the legislation because she felt the issue was being politicized instead of receiving the answers from Secretary Gates she felt she deserved. In fact, she called Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman's response in the letter "offensive and totally inappropriate."
"I sent a serious letter on a matter of national security to the Secretary of Defense, and in return received a political response," she said. "I wrote yesterday to Secretary Gates renewing my call on the Bush Administration to immediately provide a redeployment strategy that will keep our brave men and women safe as they leave Iraq -- instead of adhering to a political strategy to attack those of us like Senator Kerry and myself who rightfully question their competence and preparedness after years of mistakes and misjudgments."
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Kerry added his opinion, stating the country needs to plan for issues both in Iraq and on the home front, reminding reporters of Katrina. He also said a contingency plan is not something unreasonable to expect. "If the Pentagon can draw up plans to bomb Iran and do so on 24 hours notice by the president," he said, "then the least they can do is have a plan under any and all circumstances, and Hillary and I want to emphasize that, on any and all circumstances, a plan to redeploy American troops."
From NBC's Andrew Merten
It appears that conservative commentator Sean Hannity called for the resignation of Sen.
David Vitter (R) on his FOX News show last night. While listing several times he has spoken out against Republicans in Congress, he added, “I think Senator Vitter should probably live by the line that he put out for Bill Clinton back in the Monica Lewisky scandal," when Vitter called Clinton morally unfit to govern.
NBC's Political Unit had been mointoring Hannity’s radio show daily after the Vitter prostitution story broke, in hope that the senator would call in to air his side of the story. The radio show has become a sort of confessional for conservatives plagued by scandal. But it now seems that Hannity will not be providing a sympathetic ear to Vitter.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Tomorrow at Camp David, President Bush will have a colonoscopy. The procedure will be supervised by his physician, Dr. Richard Tubb, an Air Force colonel. This will be the president's fourth colonoscopy. Because the president will be given anesthesia, Mr. Bush has decided he will transfer power to Vice President Dick Cheney under the 25th amendment. Advisers say Mr. and Mrs. Cheney will be at their home in Maryland on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay all day Saturday, including the time Bush undergoes his colonoscopy.
Bush's last colonoscopy under anesthesia was June 28, 2002. Power was also transferred then.
A previous exam had detected "benign polyps," and advisers say this ongoing follow-up was required. The time of the transferred power is expected to be two and half hours on Saturday.
Video: Bush to turn over power to V.P. temporarily
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Last night, the US Senate erased a page of history -- literally. The body agreed to permanently remove from the constitutionally mandated Congressional Record a vote they'd taken earlier in the evening on a measure saying the president should not pardon Scooter Libby. The vote failed 47-49, but any reference to the vote itself was expunged as though it never happened.
The Senate was in the process of finishing up an education bill, when various Republican senators called for votes on measures having nothing to do with education, like Gitmo and the Fairness Doctrine. After apparently getting annoyed, Democrats countered with the Libby amendment. "If you are going to shoot this way, we have to shoot that way," said Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) on the floor.
Republicans were besides themselves. "Until this last amendment, I haven't seen politically inspired amendments before this body," Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) said in opposition. There was so much audible grumbling from senators in reaction (and disbelief), that Kyl had to pause for it to subside. After the Libby vote failed, Republicans struck back hard, offering a amendment condemning about a dozen previous pardons by President Clinton. As one GOP aide put it, "we brought our gun to the knife fight." But cooler heads prevailed when both party leaders decided not to have the Clinton vote, and the Majority Leader Harry Reid simply asked that the Libby vote "be vitiated and stricken from the record."
And with those words, it never happened -- except on C-SPAN tapes. For what it's worth, Hillary Clinton, who was on the Hill, did not take the Libby vote.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
If its numbers are true, a new CNN/Opinion Research poll of South Carolina voters is a boon to
Clinton and a potentially devastating blow to
Obama. In it, Clinton leads Obama, 43%-27%, with
Edwards at 17%. Yet among African Americans, Clinton's lead over Obama jumps to 52%-33%. Can that be right?What's more, 15% of black Democratic primary voters say they WOULD NOT vote for Obama under any circumstance, while just 4% of them say the same thing about Clinton. And on key qualities, Clinton wins by a wide margin. By a 72%-19% clip, black Democratic primary voters say she has the right experience over Obama to be president; by 63%-29%, they think she has the better chance of beating the GOP nominee in '08; and by 48%-40%, they think she is most likely to bring change to the country.
What's startling, in fact, is that Obama gets higher marks among white South Carolina Democrats on some of these particular questions than he does with black Democrats.
However, we've already had a few folks chime in to remind us that the owner of Opinion Research is none other than InfoUSA, which is owned by Clinton supporter Vinod Gupta. And the Obama campaign says they're laughing at these results. "Our grassroots effort in South Carolina is moving at a historic pace. We couldn’t feel better about the energy and enthusiasm for Obama in the Palmetto State," a spokesman tells First Read.
From NBC's Mark Murray
On this second-straight relatively slow news day, the letter the Pentagon sent Hillary Clinton earlier in the week is getting plenty of coverage (including here on First Read). And many have portrayed the letter as the Pentagon excoriating Clinton:
-- the original AP piece: "In a stinging rebuke to a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee..."
-- the New York Daily News: "The caustic letter..."
-- the New York Times Caucus blog: "Issuing a stunning rocket..."
-- ABC: "The letter ... did not mince words.
-- and MSNBC has called it an "attack" and "rebuke" on the air
But as we pointed out earlier today, here's the actual letter. You be the judge -- is this an attack? And is it any different than what the Bush Administration has said before?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Breaking Away: If you missed NBC's David Gregory's report this morning on the problems the GOP is facing because of Bush's political issues, it appears the Republican presidential candidates didn't. Just check out Giuliani’s first clear pivot from the Bush Administration yesterday. The issue he chose to make this move was fairly easy for him: on the pursuit of al Qaeda in Pakistan. It's a credible issue from which to distance oneself from the Administration and at the same time look more hawkish. Watch for Romney and Thompson pursue similar strategies -- show distance from Bush by being more hawkish on the terrorist fight and try not to utter the word "Iraq." And it won't just be on the war… The distance candidates put between themselves and Bush will be on issues that get conservatives comfortable (like immigration).
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Video: Is George W. Bush hurting the chances of Republicans running for president in 2008? NBC's David Gregory reports.
*** War Games: Per yesterday’s AP, the Pentagon called Hillary Clinton’s questions about how the US plans to eventually withdraw from Iraq “enemy propaganda.” The article: “In a stinging rebuke to a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Undersecretary of Defense Eric Edelman responded to questions Clinton raised in May in which she urged the Pentagon to start planning now for the withdrawal of American forces.” On a relatively slow news day, the piece got plenty of play -- it even incensed the folks at Daily Kos, who lashed out at the Bush Administration. But to us, this was the most interesting part of the piece: “A copy of Edelman's response, dated July 16, was obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.” Who exactly leaked it to the AP? Does anyone think the Pentagon would have wanted it to get leaked? Whoever it was, the story only helped to brandish Clinton’s anti-war credentials, as well as make her look menacing to the Bush Administration. Mission accomplished. By the way, read the actual (private) letter from Edelman. It appears more bureaucratic than anything else -- as if it was never meant to make news.
*** Pot Meet Kettle: A day after Romney first criticized Obama’s recent comments in support of age-appropriate sex education, the Politico reports that Romney -- back in 2002 -- said he favored it too (although he never mentioned kindergarten). Is this yet another example of Romney being for something before he was against it? Also, note that Romney’s infamous quasi-security aide, Jay Garrity, is back in the news. He made fake badges for the staff. But come on -- badges? He didn't need no stinkin' badges!
*** Fighting With Fire? Giuliani is in Myrtle Beach, SC, where he addresses the 102nd Annual Conference of the South Carolina State Firefighters’ Association. Of course, it wasn’t too long ago that the International Association of Fire Firefighters released that video blasting Rudy’s 9/11 credentials. The Giuliani campaign tells First Read that the event isn’t political and that the organization invited him. Yet even when he gets a friendly audience of firefighters, it’s in the context of that critical video. Does this mean that events with (and even endorsements from) firefighters will always cut both ways for Giuliani? If so, does it become a disincentive for him to have these kind of events?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden is in Iowa; Clinton is also there, where she addresses a local AFSCME union; Edwards speaks at the Young Democrats of America National Convention in Dallas; McCain raises money in Texas and Missouri; Obama holds a town hall in New Hampshire, while wife Michelle is in Chicago for the opening of an Obama volunteer center; and Richardson and Romney are also in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 22 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 45 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 92 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 109 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 120 days
Countdown to Iowa: 177 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 199 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 473 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 550 days
BROWNBACK:
He’s
enlisting a Catholic army of sorts to help with Iowa organization. "The 144-member coalition will work to organize Republicans as Brownback's campaign braces for the Iowa GOP straw poll Aug. 11." Brownback, who is trying to bill himself the "conservative alternative," said "the campaign singled out Catholics hoping to tap so-called values voters."
GIULIANI:
The
New York Times: “Saying he still believes that the United States is safer than it was on Sept. 11, Rudolph W. Giuliani on Thursday nevertheless criticized the way the Bush Administration pursued Al Qaeda and suggested that the United States failed to put enough pressure on Pakistan to pursue terrorists.”
He made similar remarks to
USA Today. “The United States has been distracted ‘for a while’ by military setbacks and political heat surrounding the Iraq war, Giuliani said, not focusing enough on al-Qaeda's resurgence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. ‘This cannot be like a horror movie,’ he said. ‘You know, in the horror movie you kill the monster, and the hand re-emerges. And if you're not looking, the hand grows back and then the monster's there again. That cannot be allowed to happen.’”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN:
The
Des Moines Register reports that Biden will introduce legislation overhauling US policy on the detainees at Guantanamo Bay. "Our actions from Abu Ghraib to Guantanamo really have undermined our worldwide credibility," Biden said. "We, as they say, have created more terrorists. This is an attempt to legislatively redefine what I thought are basic precepts of the American criminal justice system that we have just blown away."
CLINTON:
The
New York Times examines the female vote from the latest NYT/CBS poll, and it notes that women view Clinton "more favorably than men do, but she still faces skepticism among some women, especially those who are older and those who are married." For instance: "A majority of single women view Mrs. Clinton favorably, while married women are split." Also: "The poll shows that Mrs. Clinton might find additional supporters among certain groups. A third of politically independent women say they have not made up their minds about her. Similarly, liberal women make up one of her most reliable bases of support (66 percent of them have a favorable view) although one-fourth of them are still undecided."
Per the liberal news site TalkingPointsMemo, here's the letter to Clinton from the Pentagon we discussed above. Yet when one reads the letter in full context, it's hard to describe it as a full rebuke. It reads, frankly, more bureaucratic than anything else. In fact, one could interpret that the Pentagon is conceding they may have some contingency plans but won't talk about them publicly.
CONTINUED >>
It's the "live free or die" state, right? Well, anyone surprised that the GOP presidential candidates haven't been asked about the New Hampshire couple that has been holed up for six months in a standoff with the feds over a tax evasion conviction. They stopped paying taxes in '96 and were convicted of tax evasion and now are refusing to serve out a five-year prison sentence. "Government and law officials have cut off power, Internet, house phone, cellphone, television and mail service to the couple's 110-acre compound. But their house is equipped with solar panels, a watchtower, a satellite dish and a stockpile of food."
Iowa GOP officials announced yesterday that they expect turnout for next month's straw poll to draw more folks than the one in '99 did, despite the fact that three of the four major candidates are not competing. The party estimates 38,000 Republicans will attend the Ames straw poll.
The
Washington Post: “Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid offered no apologies yesterday for his decision to reject compromise efforts to alter President Bush's Iraq strategy that had the support of a growing number of Republicans… Although Reid's strategy won him praise from antiwar advocates who are demanding that Congress do nothing less than force an end to the conflict, it has painted him as being as much of a hard-liner for ending the war as the president is in arguing that it is too soon to bring the troops home.”
McClatchy covers US ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker’s testimony via videotape yesterday to members of Congress.
The
Washington Post writes that the Bush Administration yesterday “unveiled a bold new assertion of executive authority” in the US attorneys firings, saying “that the Justice Department will never be allowed to pursue contempt charges initiated by Congress against White House officials once the president has invoked executive privilege. The position presents serious legal and political obstacles for congressional Democrats, who have begun laying the groundwork for contempt proceedings against current and former White House officials in order to pry loose information about the dismissals.”
The AP reports that Valerie Plame Wilson yesterday lost a civil lawsuit “that demanded money from Bush administration officials whom she blamed for leaking her agency identity… U.S. District Judge John D. Bates dismissed the case on jurisdictional grounds and said he would not express an opinion on the constitutional arguments. Bates dismissed the case against all defendants: Cheney, White House political adviser Karl Rove, former White House aide I. Lewis ‘Scooter’ Libby and former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.”
The New York Times: “President Bush came to Tennessee on Thursday to attack Congressional Democrats for their budget proposals, auguring what both sides agreed would be a contentious fight over taxes and spending.” The paper also has this: Those perplexed by his first stop here at the Nashville Bun Company got a clear explanation at the president’s next stop, the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center. ‘I would warn the Nashville Bun Company,’ Mr. Bush told a mostly adoring crowd of local business leaders, ‘you can’t keep making buns if the Democrats take all your dough.’” Har-har-har.
CONTINUED >>
It looks like relations between the two party caucuses in the Senate is near an
all-time low, which means gridlock -- and which means even lower approval ratings for Congress overall.
From NBC's Chip Reid
Democratic Sen.
Robert Byrd, eyes glistening, delivered an emotional speech on the Senate floor a short time ago expressing his disgust, anger, and sadness over the allegations in the Michael Vick pit-bull case.Byrd has often spoken on the Senate floor about how much he loves his small dog, especially since the death last year of his wife of 68 years. While emphasizing that he wasn't commenting on the particulars of Vick's case, Byrd lashed out at the practice of dog-fighting. "The training of these poor creatures to turn them into fighting machines is simply barbaric." Shouting and waving his hands, he repeated the words "Barbaric!" and then said "Hear me!"
"I am confident that the hottest places in hell are reserved for sick and brutal people who hold God’s creatures in such brutal and cruel contempt." After the speech, Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy -- who has two dogs of his own -- went up to Byrd and said, "Great speech, Bob." And the two went on to talk about their dogs.
From NBC's Chuck ToddCheck out who's the only response to John Dickerson's critical review of the new Edwards TV ad in
Slate. None other than Elizabeth Edwards.
From NBC's Courtney Kube
A defense official who attended today's two briefings on Iraq for members of Congress at the Pentagon this morning provided us with a read out of the meetings. Here are the details… Of the nearly 250 members who were apparently invited by the White House (although the White House insists that the Pentagon extended the invitations), about 50 House members and 40 senators attended. The defense official described the turnout as "better than we expected," adding that the group was "pretty evenly divided" and "a good mix" of Democrats and Republicans.
Defense Secretary Gates and outgoing Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Giambastiani greeted each of the groups, but did not stay for the entire sessions (General Pace is traveling, so Giambastiani was pinch hitting). Each meeting began with an opening statement from Ambassador Ryan Crocker and then Gen. David Petraeus, each one speaking for about 10 minutes. The defense official said that the opening statements were full of "great detail," including classified details of recent operations.
The defense official called the overall tone of the meeting "very, very cordial," and said that the two briefers were "very candid" in their answers. That said, the official admitted that neither briefing "broke much new ground." These meetings were supposed to occur last week and were designed to expand on the benchmarks report. The defense official said that the information provided did not expand much beyond the report and what Petraeus has already said publicly.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Eric Wexler and Mark Murray
We missed this earlier this morning...
Romney, in an interview with the
Washington Examiner, seemed to preview his campaign's message strategy versus
Fred Thompson: suggest that the former Tennessee senator is lazy and a creature of Washington. "'Can he raise the money? Will he do the work it takes to become the president?' Romney asked. 'To beat Hillary Clinton, you’re going to have to raise a lot of money. You’re going to have to work like crazy.'"
"Romney also alluded to Thompson’s long years in Washington, including a stint as a senator from Tennessee. 'You’re going to have to show the ability to be distinct from Washington,' Romney said. 'I don’t think America is going to elect a Washington insider the next president. So can he do those things? We’ll find out when he’s in the race.'"
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
At a breakfast meeting with reporters, Bob Novak defended his decision to print Valerie Plame Wilson’s name in his column -- which sparked the CIA leak investigation. And he justified his outing of several once-anonymous sources in his new book, The Prince of Darkness.Novak contends in his book that Plame Wilson was “not now and never would be again” a covert agent. But he admits that CIA spokesman Bill Harlow asked him “to keep Mrs. Wilson’s CIA connection out of my column” and that the “revelation of her name might cause unspecified ‘difficulties’ if she traveled abroad.” He inferred based on his “experience with CIA jargon” that Plame “at one time had been engaged in covert activities abroad but was not now and never would be again.” He says he “learned much later” she had already been outed by a Soviet spy, “which had ended her career as a covert agent long before I wrote about her.”
He also says in his book that if given the chance, he’d print her name again. “I broke no law and endangered no intelligence operation,” Novak writes. CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Carly Zakin
Huckabee
hosted a media conference call this morning from Iowa. The call comes in preparation for the Ames straw poll on Aug. 11th. Like he has done in his other calls, Huckabee allowed a friend and supporter to do the talking for him, and then opened the call to questions. Today’s endorsement came from former Arkansas state Sen.
Lu Hardin, a long-time friend and University of Central Arkansas president. Focusing on Huckabee’s education record and devotion to higher education, Hardin listed the presidential hopeful’s success with the Smart Start program, academic scholarships, the expansion of the governor’s distinguished scholarship, and increased higher education funding.
Throughout the call there were the obvious comparisons made between Huckabee and former Arkansas Governor
Bill Clinton. Hardin, a one-time Democrat who switched parties, was careful not to disparage Clinton’s education record calling it “different [than Huckabee’s]. Bill Clinton was a friend of education…Mike Huckabee was a strong, strong friend of higher education.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Here are some more FEC nuggets. We found these in Romney's filings. We'll do more of these with the other candidates as well.
--$688,784 to Survey Research (polling)
--$44,000 to right-wing Newsmax.com (for List Service, subscriptions and Web service)
--$31,500 to Boston Red Sox to rent Fenway Park (Box seat season tickets are $8,500/person -- could pay for almost four)
--$21,284.48 to the Four Seasons in Boston
--$14,821.39 to Subaru of New England
--$7,932.66 at the Atlantic Coffee Company in Marshfield, MA
--$2,520.03 for flowers
--$1,031.02 to the swanky Miramonte Resort and Spa in California.
--Someone likes pancakes. $368.38 to Flapjack Family Restaurant in Michigan
--$182.77 to Outspokin Bicycles in Columbia, SC listed as a “travel” expense.
--$115.34 to Springfield Beer Distributor in Philadelphia, PA
From NBC's Mark Murray
Well, we can safely say that this is a new topic in this presidential race... Yesterday's ABC report that Obama favors age-appropriate sex education for even kindergarten students has received a fair amount of play. Romney, in fact, used it to criticize Obama in a speech he gave yesterday. "I was shocked to hear that he thinks we need sex education in kindergarten," Romney said. "I don't think that's a problem. I don't think that's a need." Romney's campaign even put those remarks on YouTube.
But it seems Romney's criticism might be a bit overblown. The Obama campaign gave this statement to
CBN's David Brody: "Barack Obama supports sensible, community-driven education for children because, among other things, he believes it could help protect them from pedophiles. A child's knowledge of the difference between appropriate and inappropriate touching is crucial to keeping them safe from predators."
Brody's analysis: "Obama doesn't want to hand out condoms to five year olds. He doesn't want cucumber demonstrations as part of show and tell. The legitimate reasonable discussion here is whether the federal government and/or local school boards should get involved in providing these five year olds information about inappropriate touching or should it be left up to families only."
Obama spokesman Bill Burton tells First Read: "You can teach a kid about what's appropriate and not appropriate to protect them from predators out there." In addition, he issued a document showing that the Oregon Department of Education has guidelines for sex education for children in grades K-3 (which includes understanding the difference between a good touch and a bad touch), and that the Sexuality Information And Education Council of the United States has curriculum for those in kindergarten.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
We signed up for Obama's text-messaging service, and yesterday we received the next text message from Obama -- or should we say we received a whole string of texts... The first one we received last night at 7:42 pm ET was simple enough: "Obama gave a major speech today on renewing our urban centers. For more about his plan, reply URBAN to this message."
We typed in URBAN, and received more information and instructions to type another word for more. This continued for some time until we received one telling us the next one would be an excerpt from the speech, which ended up being the last text: "What we can do is make our neighborhoods whole again. What we can do is retire the phrase 'working poor' in our time." For more: www.barackobama.com/speeches
We RECEIVED a total of seven texts and had to SEND a total of six texts to receive the next one in the chain -- which, no matter your phone plan, can add up...
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** You Just Knew This Was Coming: When it was first reported that Fred Thompson might have lobbied for a pro-choice group, his camp first said Thompson had no recollection that he ever did such a thing. Then Thompson made some non-denial denials that reminded us of the old SNL "Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer" character. And now, voila, there’s an article about records confirming that that Thompson DID lobby for the group. In fact, he apparently spoke to a representative of the abortion rights group 22 times. But he wasn’t able to recall the lobbying effort when this was first reported? Thompson is lucky that some in the GOP base are so hungry for a candidate who at least looks like a conservative -- even if his record indicates otherwise.
Video: NBC's Chuck Todd offers his first read on potential Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson pushing back an official campaign announcement
*** A Missed Opportunity? Nearly 50 days have passed since Thompson first formed his “testing the waters” committee. And while the few events he’s had since then -- including yesterday’s fundraiser in Baton Rouge, LA -- have garnered attention, are we the only ones who sense that enthusiasm for his candidacy has waned? To build anticipation, music concerts typically wait as long as possible before bringing the main attraction to the stage. And when Thompson finally announces, it will be a big deal. But by waiting now as late as September to make his official plunge into the presidential waters, has he missed an opportunity to demonstrate to Republican voters (including the bigwigs) that he’s their guy? He certainly is putting more pressure on himself to perform once he actually gets in. There will be no time to get the kinks out.
*** Bill’s Excellent Adventure On Iraq:
Somewhat overshadowed yesterday by the new Edwards TV ad (featuring wife Elizabeth) and even the new Clinton DVD (talking to Iowa voters about the war) was Richardson’s new ad his campaign is airing in Iowa. “We have to end the war now,” he says in it. “We need to get all of our troops out of Iraq. George Bush won’t do that, but I will.” While we and others have focused plenty on Clinton’s evolution on the war, few have traced how Richardson -- who once said Iraq had WMD and called the country a bigger threat than North Korea -- has become anti-war candidate. As the critical profile of him in last month's New Republic suggested, Richardson has never had a fixed foreign policy ideology, despite his vast experience in foreign affairs. Richardson is making progress because the spotlight isn't on him. But should he continue to make gains, can he withstand increased scrutiny on some of his position evolutions? (
See: Press, Meet The)
*** Didn’t We See This In “Brewster’s Millions”? Tired of picking between the lesser of two evils at the ballot box? Well, perhaps not anymore. There’s a proposal in Massachusetts that would make "None of the Above; For a New Election" an option in every state and local race. Per the Boston Globe, "In a state where 70 percent of candidates ran unopposed last year, the bill would let voters try to force competition by calling for a new election."
*** On The Trail: Brownback is in Iowa, where he throws out the first pitch at an Iowa Cubs game; Edwards -- a day removed from concluding his poverty tour -- travels to Iowa, while wife Elizabeth raises money at a brewery in Oklahoma City; Giuliani continues to stump in Iowa, where he gives a policy address on energy and ethanol; Obama has an ice cream social in New Hampshire; Richardson campaigns in Iowa; and Romney hosts a picnic and a town hall in South Carolina.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 23 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 46 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 93 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 110 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 121 days
Countdown to Iowa: 178 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 200 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 474 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 551 days
 |
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After failing to get the 60 votes needed to proceed to a final vote on a troop withdrawal amendment -- and then after failing to reach agreement with GOP leadership on votes on other amendments -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pulled the bill from the Senate floor yesterday, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. The
Washington Post: “Reid's move was hailed by antiwar groups, which have urged Democrats not to compromise. But his decision may also have the effect of providing Bush with an opportunity that he has wanted: 60 more days to make his case that the war is making progress.”
The New York Times adds: “The move appeared to postpone the next Senate showdown over the war until September, despite a White House report that claimed no more than mixed progress in Iraq. It also allowed Democratic leaders to avoid votes on alternative initiatives that Republicans had sought to portray as evidence that they were seeking a change in Iraq as well.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times’ Nagourney writes a conventional wisdom shifting analysis of the GOP field, noting how Romney and Giuliani are changing their strategies in the aftermath of McCain’s downfall and the rise of Thompson. Of note, Nagourney reports that Thompson will announce just after Labor Day. "Anticipating Mr. Thompson’s entry into the race, Mr. Romney’s advisers said they had begun examining Mr. Thompson’s record and plan to highlight his work as a trial lawyer and Washington lobbyist." Meanwhile Thompson aides confirmed that "Thompson intended to present himself as the most conservative candidate in the race and would go to South Carolina as part of his announcement swing."
GIULIANI:
In Iowa yesterday, Giuliani
renewed his pledge to appoint "strict constructionist" judges, which are important code words to social conservatives. He also promised NOT to have an abortion litmus test. In addition, conservative mag
Human Events interviewed Giuliani's chief legal advisers, Ted Olson and Steven Calabresi, on Rudy's judicial philosophy.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN:
The
hometown paper in Delaware previews Biden's new book, "Promises to Keep: On Life and Politics." Reading
Joe Klein's latest missive on Biden, it's hard not to think there's a tad of lament in Klein's words about Biden's chances.
CLINTON:
The lawsuit involving Clinton's chief strategist Mark Penn and his former partners has been dropped, the
AP says.
Trying to close out the Elizabeth Edwards-Hillary Clinton feud, the Clinton campaign
is touting a quote from Edwards adviser Kate Michelman praising the historic nature of Clinton's candidacy.
CONTINUED >>
More news trolling of the FEC reports... The Boston Globe examines which voters and consumer lists the campaigns have purchased, noting the GOP candidates have outspent the Democratic candidates on purchasing these lists.
In particular, Romney paid the right-leaning Web site News Max $22,000 for subscriber lists. A First Read analysis of FEC data showed Romney paid the Web site $44,000 in total this spring. "Of all the right-leaning publications and websites that have written upbeat pieces about Mitt Romney, few have been as effusive as NewsMax," The Globe writes as its lead. Republicans paid almost $2.9 million for subscriber lists this quarter compared to $570,000 paid by Democrats.
The state's political guru, the Union Leader's John DiStaso, digs deep into the latest Univ. of New Hampshire poll (conducted for CNN). Perhaps the most important thing to take away from the poll: that two-thirds of self-described independents say they plan to vote in the Dem primary. This may explain McCain's drop to fourth place. Also, Clinton and Obama are splitting the indie vote -- which is a not a good long-term trend for Obama, who is counting on those indies to put him over the top.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Jenny Anzelmo
On the third and last day of his "Road to One America Tour," Edwards made stops in Wise, VA, Whitesburg, KY, and Prestonburg, KY -- the last two stops identical to the end of Bobby Kennedy's poverty tour 40 years ago. Throughout the three days, Edwards visited both rural towns and urban cities and held many more small group gatherings -- as opposed to large rallies.
In both Wise and Whitesburg, the setting was casual. In Wise, people sat on picnic benches discussing the health-care issues they face. At the end of his scheduled time, Edwards continued talking with the community, even as staffers were encouraging him to get going to Whitesburg. Once in Kentucky, Edwards engaged students in a youth forum, discussing such diverse topics from coal miners' rights and Darfur, to green-collar jobs and health care. Seated on the stage in the Appalshop Theater with several high school and college students, he spent more time listening to their personal and community's problems than speaking.
Edwards concluded his poverty tour with a big speech in Prestonburg. The symbolism of his final location was not lost on Edwards. He said people have been asking him if he believes he should be compared to Bobby Kennedy. "And the answer to that is no. I do not deserve to be compared to Bobby Kennedy," Edwards said. "He is a political hero of mine, but the reason I'm here is because I want America to remember what he did decades ago, and I want America to join us, all of us, to end the great work that Bobby Kennedy started."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
The Edwards campaign unveiled a
30-second TV ad in New Hampshire, featuring Elizabeth Edwards. She narrates the video and highlights her husband's optimism, "toughness" and that "he works harder than any human being" she knows.The campaign says it’s a “strong buy” that will mostly replace the ad featuring Edwards himself, which has run for about 2 ½ weeks in the Granite State.
The campaign held a conference call to discuss the ad, but it got contentious when a reporter asked if Elizabeth Edwards is a convenient weapon; that she is being used increasingly to fire shots at other campaigns -- notably Clinton -- because it is difficult for other campaigns to criticize her.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
After failing to get the 60 votes needed to proceed to a final vote on a troop withdrawal amendment -- and then after failing to reach agreement with GOP leadership on votes other amendments -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid pulled the bill from the Senate floor.
In other words, all those other non-binding Iraq amendments waiting for a vote won't get one anytime soon.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a meeting with reporters this morning, Lee Hamilton -- the former Democratic congressman who was vice chair of the 9/11 Commission and co-chair of the Iraq Study Group -- said he isn't surprised by the conclusion in the new National Intelligence Estimate that al Qaeda has strengthened over the past two years. And he criticized the Bush Administration's approaches to al Qaeda and Iraq.
"Al Qaeda is resurgent, and it is a very resilient organization." He added that the terrorist group is the "single-largest threat to the security of the United States" -- and as a result, he disagrees with President Bush calling Iraq the central front on the war on terror. Iraq, Hamilton said, is a central front.
In fact, he argued that the US "lost an opportunity" to take out al Qaeda in Afghanistan/Pakistan when it went to war in Iraq. "We were distracted when we went into Iraq." He went on to criticize Bush for focusing exclusively on al Qaeda in Iraq when talking about the violence there. "I think the enemy is evolving, constantly changing, and multi-faceted. It is very difficult to define the enemy in Iraq."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There's a
new 30-second Richardson ad called "Stand Up" that began running today in Iowa on local affiliates and cable channels. In a grassy New Mexico field with a mountain range backdrop, a calm Richardson -- donning a grey Southwestern-style button-down shirt, belt buckle and jeans -- calls for all troops to be pulled from Iraq and urges Congress to action.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
At 11:00 am, the Senate will take a procedural vote that's essentially a test vote on a bipartisan measure that would require most troop withdrawal from Iraq to be completed by spring 2008. Both Democrats and Republicans admit that the measure -- Levin-Reed -- will NOT meet the 60-vote threshold to overcome the Republican blockade (or filibuster.) For all the recent Republican calls for a change of course in Iraq, only three have publicly pledged to vote for the measure:
Hagel,
Smith, and
Snowe. The other dozen or so GOP war critics -- among them
Warner,
Lugar,
Collins, and
Sununu -- have either written or signed on to other non-binding measures. Once Levin-Reed fails, it remains to be seen whether Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid will allow votes on the other non-binding measure calling for a change of course. Among those popular amendments awaiting votes are:
-- Warner-Lugar: which requires new war plans to be drawn up in October and "recommends" they're carried out before the end of the year. It also "expects" the president to submit a revised war authorization.
-- Salazar-Alexander: which has significant bipartisan support, would make the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group US policy, and set a "goal" for withdrawal in the spring.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro and Carly Zakin
*** Are We Safer? In all the coverage of the new National Intelligence Estimate, a New York Times analysis perhaps puts it best: “Nearly six years after the Sept. 11 attacks, the hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives expended in the name of the war on terror pose a single, insistent question: Are we safer?” Hillary Clinton said so at last month’s CNN debate. (“I believe we are safer than we were. We are not yet safe enough.”) Does she still think that? And is this something we’ll see her Democratic rivals pounce on?
*** If It Talks Like A Lame Duck…: As Washington reacts to the NIE report, the Senate debates Iraq, and the presidential candidates jockey for position in the ’08 horserace, President Bush today heads to Landover, MD to participate in a roundtable discussion on health care at the wonderfully-named Man & Machine Inc. Tomorrow, he travels to Tennessee to tour the also wonderfully-named Nashville Bun Company and then makes remarks on the budget. But just how many members of the White House press corps will be joining Bush on these trips? As the calendar says below, there are more than 500 days left in Bush’s presidency. But outside his remarks on Iraq or his latest comments on the Middle East, has everyone turned their attention elsewhere?
*** Stealing The Spotlight: Edwards’ poverty tour comes to an end today, with stops in Virginia and Kentucky and a major speech. Per the campaign, Edwards will use this speech to sum his three-day tour and talk about the faces of poverty he met. Yet partly overshadowing Day Two of the tour was wife Elizabeth’s comments to Salon about Hillary Clinton. They weren’t as incendiary as Drudge made them out to be, but Elizabeth still made news -- as she did when she called Ann Coulter, or when it was revealed her cancer had returned. And now there’s a brand new campaign TV ad that features her, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported on TODAY this morning. We knew it was possible that a spouse might become the story in this presidential race. But just we also thought it would be Bill, not Elizabeth Edwards.
Video: Chuck Todd on Elizabeth Edwards' role in her husband's presidential campaign
*** Rudy’s Ace In The Hole? In Iowa today, Giuliani will deliver a policy address on judges, which is one of his 12 Commitments ("I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges"). It comes a day after Ted Olson and other conservatives held a press conference in DC unveiling his Justice Advisory Committee. Olson backing the pro-choice Giuliani could end up being one of the more underreported stories of the 2008 campaign: If Olson convinces diehard conservatives that Rudy will appoint the kind of judges they want, does that inoculate Giuliani on abortion? Of course, it might also send mixed signals when you say you’re for abortion rights but would appoint judges who would take those very rights away.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Obama delivers a speech in Southeast DC on Changing the Odds for Urban America; Romney headlines a GOP fundraiser in Colorado Springs, CO; Tancredo is in Iowa; Fred Thompson raises money at a $2,300 a plate reception in Baton Rouge, LA (raising more questions whether he’s doing something more than just testing the waters); and Ann Romney makes three stops in South Carolina on her “Women for Mitt” tour.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 24 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 47 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 94 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 111 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 122 days
Countdown to Iowa: 190 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 201 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 475 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 552 days
The
AP covers the overnight Iraq debate. “Senate Democrats staged an all-night debate on the Iraq war in a dramatic attempt to wear down Republicans who refuse to vote to begin to bring troops home by fall. Republicans responded with a yawn - agreeing to stay around as Tuesday turned to Wednesday and respond to any votes that might be scheduled even though they remained steadfast in their opposition to the Democrats' anti-war legislation. ‘This is nonsense,' said Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska. Added Sen. Tom Coburn, R-Okla., of his Democratic colleagues: ‘I bet I can stay up longer than they can.'”
How did Clinton get stuck speaking at 4:00 am and Obama got to speak after 6:00 am, when the morning news shows were prepping? Just asking. What did the all-night session accomplish? On the one hand, one wonders why the Democrats didn't do this immediately upon taking over. On the other, by participating in stagecraft (the cots, the toothpaste), didn't the Democrats undermine the seriousness of the session themselves?
The New York Times on yesterday’s NIE report: “[T]he stark declassified summary contrasted sharply with the more positive emphasis of President Bush and his top aides for years: that two-thirds of Al Qaeda’s leadership had been killed or captured; that the Iraq invasion would reduce the terrorist menace; and that the United States had its enemies ‘on the run,’ as Mr. Bush has frequently put it.”
The Boston Globe front-pages that Al Qaeda “has reestablished a safe haven in Pakistan, retained its top leadership, and trained new operatives in Iraq,” according to the National Intelligence Estimate.
Yesterday, the AFL-CIO announced it will host a presidential forum with the top seven Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson (no Gravel) -- in Chicago. The forum, which will be aired on MSNBC and moderated by MSNBC's Keith Olbermann, is being held the day before the AFL-CIO will decide whether it convenes its General Board this fall to consider an endorsement.
The Chicago Tribune reports that Elizabeth Edwards, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama were all featured guest speakers at yesterday’s Planned Parenthood Action Fund event in D.C. With each speaking offering their (or in their husband’s, in Elizabeth’s case) health care proposals, it was Clinton who provided the most “bruising critique of Bush administration policies and Republican conservatives on abortion rights and contraception policy.”
CLINTON:
Newsweek's Meadows interviews every candidate that has ever faced Clinton in an election (including her high school student council opponent) to find out how one beats Clinton. "There’s a reason she hasn’t lost an election since she ran for president of the student council in high school. She does her homework; she doesn’t do gaffes. Anyone running against her would be wise not to count on an implosion. So if she won’t do herself in, how can she be beaten?" Newsweek offers up 10 ideas.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
He’s making what is actually a
rare visit to Iowa. It's a two-day swing and should beat back the chatter that he's somehow ignoring Iowa. As we've noted before, Giuliani is simply trying to re-define victory in Iowa. Remember, one can "win" Iowa without winning Iowa (see Hart, Gary or Robertson, Pat). And The
Des Moines Register’s Yepsen says of the trip, “It’s a sign he and his people finally get it. They get they can win Iowa. And they get they’ve got to spend time in the state to do it. Until now, there’s been doubt the former New York mayor understood those things.” And that Giuliani has had some success with social conservatives in the state by “telling them they’d like his judges better than ones appointed by, say, President Hillary Clinton.”
The NY Daily News reports, “Nearly one-third” of the attorneys at Giuliani’s law firm, “who made a personal contribution to a presidential campaign during the past three months, picked a candidate whose name is not on their paychecks.” Also, one of the Houston-based attorneys working for the firm who gave to Obama said, "I share more of the views and beliefs of Barack Obama. Obama would be a terrific President."
CONTINUED >>
A new
CNN poll out of New Hampshire has Edwards in single digits, and trailing Richardson. No doubt the Richardson campaign will be gloating big time today. In fact, we saw this press release from the Richardson camp yesterday: “Governor Bill Richardson Moves Past Edwards into Top Tier in New Hampshire.”
Some more FEC nuggets… Nearly one-third of the attorneys at Bracewell & Giuliani, who gave money to a presidential candidate, did NOT give to the one named Giuliani. Richardson and Obama were the most popular non-Giuliani choices.
Obama and Clinton are both receiving more money from employees of the top 10 investment banks than the leading GOP candidates. Obama, interestingly, topped Clinton in Wall Street money for the 2nd quarter.
CONTINUED >>
The
Los Angeles Times' Brownstein wonders whether the GOP can survive in '08 politically with its leader -- Bush -- so unpopular. "Whatever Bush does in Iraq, Republicans next year will probably need to paddle away from him much more energetically than they have so far. It also means that no matter how hard they swim, they could still be swamped if Bush can't stabilize his sinking ship."
A huge upset in yesterday’s run off for the late Rep. Charlie Norwood’s congressional seat in Georgia? The AP: “Underdog Paul Broun led Jim Whitehead by just 394 votes. With 46,634 votes counted, that is within the 1 percent margin needed for the apparent loser to be granted a recount upon request. Ninety-nine percent of precincts had reported… Broun and Whitehead, both Republicans, were the top vote-getters to emerge from the crowded 10-candidate field in the June 19 special election to replace Norwood, a tough-talking conservative who died in February after battling cancer and lung disease.”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “A victory by Broun, who finished a distant second to Whitehead in a June 19 election, would represent a surprising upset — and a blow to Augusta, home to the seven-term Norwood, who died in February of a lengthy lung ailment and cancer.”
The
Politico examined Vitter’s first day back at work yesterday. “Reporters and cameramen camped outside his Senate office. They trailed him through the hallways and shouted questions. ‘Is there still a sense of distraction?’ one reporter asked Vitter after the committee hearing. ‘Can you just deny the allegations of the New Orleans madam?’ asked another. ‘How's your day going?’ asked a third reporter. Vitter's standard response was a life-after-scandal smile -- no teeth, tight-lipped and silent.”
The Times-Pic leads today with the news that Senate Dem leader Harry Reid called for a "full airing" of the allegations facing Vitter. But "Reid stopped short of calling for an ethics committee investigation of the freshman senator and is not likely to, preferring to let the scandal play out on its own."
Lafayette Advertiser editorial calls for Vitter to open up: "The senator would do well to engage in a frank, public discussion of all issues - the current ones and others that are sure to be raised. Not only would full disclosure be in Vitter's best interests, but would also fulfill an obligation to the people he serves."
And the Baton Rouge Advocate weighs in today too, hoping Vitter would be a bit more remorseful: "His strident persona in state politics has rubbed many the wrong way during his career. This is Louisiana. A kinder and gentler senator would evoke surprise but also a willingness to forgive."
From NBC's Carrie Dann
Speaking at the Planned Parenthood conference in DC this afternoon,
Barack Obama leveled harsh words at conservative Supreme Court justices, and he offered his own intention to appoint justices with "empathy." Obama hinted that the court's recent decision in Gonzales v. Carhart -- which upheld a ban on partial-birth abortion -- was part of "a concerted effort to steadily roll back" access to abortions. And he ridiculed Justice Anthony Kennedy, who wrote that case's majority opinion. "Justice Kennedy knows many things," he declared, "but my understanding is that he does not know how to be a doctor."
Obama also won a laugh at the expense of Chief Justice John Roberts, saying that judgments of Roberts' character during his confirmation hearings were largely superficial. "He loves his wife. He's good to his dog," he joked, adding that judicial philosophy should be weighted more seriously than such evaluations. "We need somebody who's got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it's like to be a young teenage mom. The empathy to understand what it's like to be poor, or African-American, or gay, or disabled, or old. And that's the criteria by which I'm going to be selecting my judges."
Obama's criticisms fell on eager ears at the conference, where activists assembled today to hear remarks from top Democratic presidential contenders Obama,
Hillary Clinton, and
Elizabeth Edwards (appearing in lieu of her husband while he continues his three-day poverty tour.) But his comments also demonstrated how social issues like abortion rights have been eclipsed in many ways by the high emotions of the Iraq war. "At a time when the real war is being fought abroad, [some] would have us fight Culture Wars here at home." But he added smilingly, "I am absolutely convinced that culture Wars are just so '90s. Their days are growing dark."
From NBC's Andrew Merten
McCain spoke to the group Christians United for Israel today here in Washington, drawing loud applause and several standing ovations for some harsh anti-Iran rhetoric and his continued opposition to withdrawal from Iraq. During his brief speech, which was billed as a surprise visit (although cameras from nearly every major media outlet were present), McCain stressed the importance of continued support for Israel. He called the country the “only and best democracy in the Middle East,” warning that withdrawal from Iraq now would only embolden anti-Israeli nations like Iran.
Although members of the group -- which boasts a membership of over 50,000 Christian pastors across the country -- decried President Bush’s use of the word “occupation” to describe Israeli activities in Palestinian territories during yesterday’s White House briefing, McCain refrained from criticizing the president directly. Instead, he focused more on addressing the issues of Iraq and Iran rather than wading into the topic of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. McCain commented that he was “proud” of Bush, saying, “We will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.”
The Arizona senator concluded his remarks by commenting on his own faith -- something he doesn't speak about as often as other presidential hopefuls. He said that his own personal religious beliefs helped get him through his time in a Vietnamese prison camp, telling a story of a guard who drew a crucifix on the ground for him when he was allowed to go outside on Christmas Day one year.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Sources close to
Fred Thompson say the former senator's official entry into the presidential race with a Tennessee announcement day is "in flux." Joining the presidential contest could "slip into early September" as advisors describe a September window as "certainly a possibility." Notably, advisers "rule out July."
Why? They say they do not see any benefit in getting in right away, and cite how well Thompson is doing in polling and undisclosed fundraising. "There's no great benefit to getting in immediately. He's made his intentions pretty clear," one says, adding, "Fred Thompson doesn't do anything until he, when he does something, he does it right. We'd rather wait and be up to his standards and do it right then sort of rush things along."
This comes after aides said previously planning had focused on an announcement in the "first half of July." Not anymore. Aides still call this "the introductory phase."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Jason Anton
Following in the footsteps of Hillary's "Calling all YouTubers" release last week, Biden announced his own "YouTube initiative" yesterday. Unlike Clinton, though, who is seeking help with a promotional video for the CNN/YouTube debate, the Delaware senator wants YouTubers to "upload videos [for the debate] questioning the candidates on their political solution for how to end the war in Iraq without leaving chaos behind."
This, coupled with Biden’s recent speeches on the campaign trail, shows Biden seems eager to create space between him and other candidates and refocus the Democratic field on talking about solutions on Iraq – not just railing against the Bush administration’s policies.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
This morning,
we pointed out per the
New York Times that the Obama campaign is using merchandise sales as contributions. The Obama campaign contends they are not inflating the numbers, but rather “the law requires that we treat them as donors.”“There is no ‘trick’ involved,” the campaign said in an e-mail statement. “People who support Obama would like something to show their support … Most of these donors have contributed again…and again. We are proud to have them.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The top three Democratic presidential hopefuls -- or their surrogates -- are strutting their stuff before the Planned Parenthood Action Fund today. More than 200 people gathered during breakfast to hear Elizabeth Edwards speak on behalf of her husband, who is in Ohio on his "Road to One America Tour."
A young woman from Edwards' home state of North Carolina introduced Elizabeth, stating she is more popular than her husband. Elizabeth responded, earning laughter for her dig at a potential Republican opponent. "Everybody who is not running is more popular than people who are running -- hence
Fred Thompson."
A few moments later, like she's known to do, Edwards took command of the stage, infusing humor in her speech -- which showcased Edwards' abortion-rights stances. "As a presidential candidate and as a president, John Edwards would never, and I mean never, equivocate on his support for a woman's right to choose, to gain a few votes or to position himself," Elizabeth said. "You know this, because he didn't do it in North Carolina, where it would have been really easy to do it."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A couple of interesting clips we missed this morning…
Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) is under federal investigation for his association to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
12 News in Arizona reports, “Hayworth's new campaign finance report shows almost $170,000 in payments to a Washington law firm since his defeat last November by Democrat Harry Mitchell. Hayworth says the bills are connected to a Department of Justice request for 12 years worth of documents covering his legislative work with the Congressional Native American Caucus.”
“I've done nothing wrong,” Hayworth told 12 News, “and I don't expect there to be any further action."
And the Sunday Pittsburgh Tribune-Review editorial board had some tough talk for President Bush on Iraq, saying “Now is the time” for troops to be pulled. They call President Bush’s Iraq policy “a prescription for American suicide” and even “question his mental stability.” They agree with Rep. Jack Murtha that President Bush may, in fact, be “delusional.” They also call the Senate to action to follow suit with the House in calling for a withdrawal of troops. “America has done its job. It's time for the Iraqis to do theirs.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Clinton-Obama would not be the first presidential ticket featuring a woman and black man. In 1872, suffragist Victoria Woodhull topped the Equal Rights Party ticket with abolitionist and former slave Frederick Douglass as the VP choice. (Full disclosure: We originally heard this nugget from Robert Wuhl on HBO’s “Assume the Position 201.”)The Woodhull run also shows dirty politics weren’t invented in the 20th Century. Woodhull, a publisher and the first female stockbroker on Wall Street, was forced to drop out of the race when she ran out of funds and suffered acerbic personal attacks at the hands of, she believed, the Rev. Henry Beecher -- brother of Harriet Beecher Stowe. (Beecher was the editor of a competing publication to one of Woodhull's). Woodhull was called “everything from a witch to a prostitute,” according to
Victoria-Woodhull.com , and after she and her family were evicted from their home over the rumors, she hit back by publishing an article, exposing an affair Beecher was having. For that, she was arrested under the Comstock Act “for sending ‘obscene’ literature through the mail.”
The first female candidate for president spent Election Day in jail.
For the record, Ulysses S. Grant easily won re-election that year.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Politics -- particularly in a presidential cycle -- can be a nasty, divisive, and cynical business. That's why it's refreshing to see some of the front-runner campaigns show off some humor in their email memos (both morning and weekly) to the press. We're definitely fans.
The pioneer of these emails was ubiquitous Romney spokesguy Kevin Madden, who sends out the daily "Romney Rundown," which lists Romney's schedule and other important info. But the best part is the good humor -- like this from earlier in the month: "Good morning, folks- TGIF. By the way…I know for a fact that Terry Sullivan down in our South Carolina office only pays $12 for his haircut. And you can tell just by looking at him."
Recently, Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz began issuing a "weekly update" email to reporters summing up the candidate's week. Friday's included this: "Greetings from the Chapel Hill pizza parlor, our new office free of 'suspicious packages,'" referring to the campaign's evacuation due to a suspicious package.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
***
Repeating History? Obama gets the front-page treatment from the major papers this morning. While the New York Times looks into his impressive fundraising machine, the Washington Post asks this question: Is Obama just this cycle’s version of Howard Dean? Indeed, the history of 2003-4 is one reason why Obama is having a hard time convincing the chattering class he won't overtake Clinton despite his fundraising success, his buzz, and his large crowds. Fool the press once, shame on Dean. But fool the press twice… Also, don’t miss the Times piece, which notes that the Obama camp included people who bought campaign merchandise -- including key chains -- in its donor total. "No other campaign is known to have listed paraphernalia sales as donations," the paper says.
*** The Tour Continues -- As Well As The Scrutiny: On the second day of his poverty tour, Edwards makes stops in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where he will unveil a proposal to diversify schools in the wake of the recent Supreme Court decision. This morning, his tour gets plenty of coverage -- and so do the peccadilloes that have hurt his image, including that now-famous $400 haircut. “Voters vote mainly on who the person is. He's trying to communicate a message about who he is, a person who does not forget where he comes from,” Democratic pollster Mark Mellman tells the Washington Post. “The haircut issue is significant in that context; it cuts against the story.” Also, now that the Politico has uncovered that Romney’s camp spent $300 on makeup, look for Edwards supporters to use this as a test to see if the MSM covers Romney as harshly as Edwards was.
*** Vitter Finally Speaks: In his brief press conference last night, Sen. David Vitter (R) was more defiant than apologetic. That kind of tone might have worked the day after his DC Madam connection first surfaced, but was it the right one after a week of silence? Also, by denying the reports of frequenting prostitutes in New Orleans, did Vitter invite the press -- the same press his wife criticized -- to follow up on those stories? Speaking of Wendy Vitter, is she DC’s newest star? There was real emotion in Mrs. Vitter's voice -- perhaps anger that she directed at the press, but one can't help but wonder if there was a little reserved for her husband.
*** A Planned Day: Another day, another event where the Democratic presidential hopefuls will be speaking to a Democratic-leaning interest group… Elizabeth Edwards (at 8:45 am ET), Obama (at 11:45 am), and Clinton (at 5:30 pm) address Planned Parenthood in DC. Before that, Clinton addresses the National Association of Counties in Virginia. And afterwards, Obama raises money in Cincinnati.
*** Run-Off: Today in Georgia, former state Sen. Jim Whitehead (R) and doctor Paul Broun (R) compete in a run-off to fill the late Rep. Charlie Norwood’s (R) congressional seat. Whitehead, who fell just short of the 50% he needed to avoid a run-off in the 10-candidate special election back in June, is the favorite. Polls open at 7:00 am and close at 7:00 pm ET.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani meets with supporters in Florida, while his campaign holds a presser in DC on his Justice Advisory Committee; McCain speaks to Christians United for Israel in DC; Richardson is in New Hampshire; Tancredo campaigns in Iowa; and Ann Romney makes two stops in South Carolina.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 25 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 48 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 95 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 112 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 123 days
Countdown to Iowa: 191 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 202 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 476 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 553 days
The Washington Post: “Senate Democratic leaders are planning a rare all-night session tonight, employing theatrics and scheduling votes that they hope will chip away at Republican resolve to back President Bush's Iraq war strategy. Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) had hoped to convince Republicans to allow a simple-majority vote on a Democratic proposal to withdraw most U.S. troops from Iraq by next spring. But GOP leaders held firm to a 60-vote threshold for passage -- a routine maneuver in today's closely divided Senate but a number Democrats have been unable to meet all year. And Republicans decried Reid's decision for a marathon session as a stunt.”
Anti-war MoveOn members will hold more than 100 "counter-filibusters" tonight in cities and districts across the country -- including on Capitol Hill, in Minnesota (outside of Sen. Norm Coleman’s office), and in Maine (outside of Sen. Susan Collins’ office) -- as GOP senators join a filibuster to block a vote on ending the Iraq war.
NBC’s Ken Strickland says that Democratic and Republican critics of the war hope to get votes on their various measures this week seeking to change course in Iraq. While the amendments vary greatly in how much they force the president's hand, they all embrace one common denominator: changing the mission from combat to counterterrorism, protection of personnel, and training of Iraqis.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
The
Los Angeles Times reports that Tom Vilsack raised $90,000 in money from Clinton supporters to pay off presidential campaign debt came just after Vilsack endorsed Clinton. “Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer said that Clinton had made it clear early ‘we were going to help retire the debt,’ but that Clinton did not receive Vilsack's endorsement because of any offer or deal. ‘The Clintons and Gov. Vilsack have a long history,’ Singer said. ‘She offered to do whatever she could to help him close out his campaign.’”
Speaking of endorsements… Joe Wilson, husband of outed CIA operative Valerie Plame, endorsed Clinton. And Clinton praised him “because he ‘stood up to this administration’ by challenging Bush's reasons for invading Iraq. ‘I'm so pleased that we share the goal of ending this war so that we can begin bringing our troops home safely,’ she said. Wilson said Clinton had reached out to the couple in their ‘darkest hours.’”
DODD:
The
Manchester Union-Leader says Dodd is one of the people Clinton and Edwards wanted to exclude from future debates. "Unless I've totally lost my ear, I clearly get the feeling of at least a call back,” Dodd told the paper. “People say they want to see you again or talk to you again. It's not rejection."
CONTINUED >>
Video: Chuck Todd on the Republican polling winner: None of the Above
BROWNBACK: The campaign is barely going a few days without attacking Romney in a press release. The latest came last night, using the latest Romney TV ad about culture to note: "In a move rich with irony, Mitt Romney's presidential campaign released a new television advertisement decrying ‘the culture that surrounds our kids today,’ despite the fact that Romney served on the board of Marriott International, which generated tens of millions of dollars in revenue through in-room pornography services at its hotels."
Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden fires back: “Governor Romney is the most vocal advocate on the issues of protecting children and strengthening the American family in this campaign… The attack from this other campaign is actually quite unfortunate. Governor Romney was last on the board of directors of Marriott over five years ago, and matters related to in-house entertainment vendors chosen by independent franchise operators were not issues that would have even come before the board of directors.”
Meanwhile, one of Brownback’s home state papers uses his FEC report to wonder why the campaign has had a hard time catching fire.
GIULIANI: The New York Daily News predicts that Obama Girl’s new video -- where she pulls in Giuliani Girl -- will leave “Rudy red.” The paper cites Giuliani Girl saying “‘I'm gonna be wife No. 4’ as pictures of the mayor's three wives flash on the screen,” and Obama Girl saying "Giuliani Girl, just stop your fussin'/At least Obama didn't marry his cousin."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times’ David Brooks becomes the second major conservative columnist over the past few days (Peggy Noonan was the first) to notice that Bush seems a bit too upbeat about Iraq. But Brooks also seems to find the reason why Bush is upbeat. "Bush remains energized by the power of the presidency. Some presidents complain about the limits of the office. But Bush, despite all the setbacks, retains a capacious view of the job and its possibilities."
Early this afternoon at the White House, Bush meets with the Secretary-General of the United Nations.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Jennifer Crider further breaks down the DCCC’s 2nd quarter haul, compared with its GOP counterpart: It has a 10-1 cash-on-hand advantage over the NRCC; Democratic frontline members have an average COH of $607,000; and at least eight House GOP incumbents -- including Shays (CT), Graves (MO), and Reichert (WA) -- were outraised by their likely Democratic opponents.
The Los Angeles Times: “Like the Republican presidential candidates, the party's congressional effort is fighting a Democratic money tide this year, struggling with discontent over the war in Iraq, divisions over immigration policy and dissatisfaction in general with the Bush presidency.”
Unlike some of the other GOP campaign committees, the Republican Governors Association is having fundraising success this year. It reported raising $12.4 million so far for this year’s three gubernatorial contests, which is nearly a million more than it raised at this point last year (when there were 36 gubernatorial races). By comparison, the Democratic Governors Association has raked in $7 million -- but that amount is well on target to smash the $9.3 million the DGA raised in all of 2003.
“
Speaking for the first time since he acknowledged a connection to the so-called D.C. Madam a week ago, Senator David Vitter of Louisiana appeared briefly before reporters here Monday to apologize again and attack ‘political enemies’ he said had spread falsehoods about him.” Here's the header of the
Times-Pic lead editorial entitled "Incomplete Answers": "[H]is private behavior intersects with public life. By admitting that his phone number is in the records of an alleged prostitution ring that is under federal investigation, Sen. Vitter has raised the specter of illegality. Louisianans have a right to be concerned that a lawmaker may have broken the law… Vitter did not give up all rights to privacy when he took office, and no one should expect or want lurid details about his actions. He said Monday that he doesn't intend to answer endless questions. Fair enough. So far, though, he hasn't answered the fundamental question: Whether he broke the law by hiring prostitutes."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Andy Merten
On the first day of his "Road to One America Tour,"
Edwards spent the morning in New Orleans, visiting pre-schoolers in a Head Start program at Kingsley House, as well as patrons and employees at Cafe Reconcile. He took advantage of the opportunity to call out
President Bush for the lack of progress in rebuilding the city. "I will say that I think what's happened in New Orleans is a complete failure of presidential leadership. This President is responsible. He came here. He promised the city of New Orleans would be rebuilt. If he demanded action, action would be taken. Unfortunately, that has not happened."
Edwards called for a three-step solution for New Orleans: rebuild the infrastructure, ensure the people's safety (in terms of both the levees and crime), and create jobs.
The presidential hopeful announced his candidacy for the presidency in New Orleans back in December, and he returned to the Lower 9th Ward last night. During a town hall, he called for the people there to rebuild their own city -- instead of having outside contractors do the job for them. He sincerely told a man in the audience, "When I'm President, you'll have a job." Later that evening, Edwards and his wife continued to connect to people one-on-one during a tour of the area. They listened to a man describe his plight of living in a FEMA trailer since 2005 without any electricity.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Our friends at Hotline made this excellent point: We all know by now that
Paul has more cash on hand than
McCain. But he also has more cash on hand than seven other presidential hopefuls combined (
Tancredo,
Brownback,
Huckabee,
Kucinich,
Hunter,
T. Thompson, and
Gravel).
From NBC's Mark Murray
Now that the campaigns have filed their 2nd quarter campaign-finance reports with the Federal Election Commission, here are a few interesting nuggets buried in these reports -- on the Democratic side:
-- ousted Grey's Anatomy actor Isaiah Washington gave Obama the max of $2,300 back in April
-- controversial Clinton friend/donor Vinod Gupta and his wife gave Clinton $3,600 and $4,600, respectively (in both primary and general election money)
-- employees at the hedge fund Edwards worked for, Fortress Investment Group, gave Edwards a combined $3,300, although that amount is down substantially from what he received from Fortress employees in the first quarter.
Also, actor George Clooney gave money to Obama ($2,300), although he didn't list his profession. Also, we spy that ex-tennis star Martina Navratilova gave money to Edwards ($1,000). And, of course, there's much, much more...
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico MontanaroFirst Read has confirmed that Joe Wilson -- husband of Valerie Plame Wilson of the CIA leak fame -- has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
As was expected after the
McCain campaign’s shakeup last week, McCain’s three top press aides have all resigned. Per the
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder, “The departure of
Brian Jones, the communications director,
Danny Diaz, his deputy, and
Matt David, a spokesman, had been widely anticipated since last week's resignation of campaign manager
Terry Nelson. All three were Nelson's protégés and worked closely with departed strategist
John Weaver.”
"This is not an acrimonious departure. We're doing everything we can to keep the transition smooth,” Jones told Ambinder, who writes the three “did, in fact, share a farewell drink with the senator.”
Jill Hazelbaker will likely take over as national communications director.
***UPDATE***First Read has confirmed all of the above.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Get Into The Groove:
Outside of McCain, no top-shelf presidential candidate had a more difficult first six months than Edwards did. He raised less than half what Clinton and Obama pulled in; his candidacy lacks some of the buzz and luster his first one did; and his campaign (with the stories about $400 haircuts and his work for a hedge fund) has lost control of his image. But as he begins Day One of his poverty tour -- which today takes him from New Orleans, then to Mississippi, then Arkansas, and finally to Memphis, TN -- it’s important to remember that he’s in far better shape than McCain currently is. For one thing, his positions on the issues (especially Iraq and health care) are popular with his party’s base and also with much of the general public. He’s also positioned to benefit if Clinton and Obama engage in mutually assured destruction. But, first, can he get his groove back?
*** Speaking Of That Haircut…:
Pre-conceived notions are the biggest pain in the you-know-what for the presidential campaigns when dealing with reporters. Why? Because whether the Edwards camp wants to believe it or not, the media think the haircut is revealing. Then there's Giuliani, whose campaign knows deep down that the Vitter-prostitute stuff and the Ravenel-cocaine charges fit the cynic's believe that Giuliani isn’t the best judge of character when it comes to surrounding himself with advisers (see: Kerik, Bernard). Every major candidate has this issue: Romney and flip-flopping, Clinton and calculating, Obama and inexperience, Fred Thompson and laziness, and McCain and his temper. Right now, though, the Edwards and Giuliani pre-conceived notions are getting most of the attention.
CONTINUED >>
Hearts and minds watchers were given a plethora of anecdotes over the weekend suggesting that the troops themselves are getting more comfortable voicing their doubts about the war. From wives and mothers to the soldiers themselves (particularly the one that hired a hitman to have himself shot to avoid a second tour of duty) is a growing PR problem for the Bush Administration -- bigger than losing a Lugar or a Warner right now. Check out these array of what we're calling "hearts and minds" stories from the weekend:
Here’s the New York Times piece many read.
But also don’t miss:
-- children of the war
-- recruiting woes
-- families tiring
Also, be sure not to miss yesterday’s heated duel on Meet the Press between Sens. Lindsey Graham (R) and Jim Webb (D) over Iraq.
The New York Times: “All told, the eight Democrats running for president raised more than $80 million from April 1 to June 30, while the 10 Republicans raised less than $50 million, according to the campaigns, which released details on Sunday night of their fund-raising and spending.”
VIDEO:
NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the latest news in campaign fundraising.
The Chicago Tribune writes that with more than $34 million in cash available for the primary campaign, Obama has found a leading financial edge over Clinton. “Although Obama's financial advantage is slight, he now has more financial resources available for the primary than Clinton, who began the race with $10 million left over from her 2006 Senate re-election campaign and an established network of donors and fundraisers.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Whatever anyone makes of the personal and professional relationship between the Clintons and Vinod Gupta, the Saturday New York Times did little to quell the interest others will have in speaking with Mr. Gupta. The guy certainly sounds like one interesting character -- emphasis on the word "character."
Today’s New York Times touches on an issue shift inside the Democratic Party that we've pondered for some time: a move toward economic populism. Can Clinton be the head of a party whose economic policies she's not comfortable with (assuming she does share some of the economic philosophy as her husband)? Then again, she's already expressing, for instance, more anti-free trade rhetoric than her husband ever used in the '90s.
Anna Quindlen writes on the possibility of a Clinton-Obama ticket. It's something we're surprised we haven't seen in print more. In fact, the more it’s in print, the happier the Clinton camp is. Why? Obama consistently being pushed as veep reinforces the issue of experience the Clinton campaign sees as its greatest asset vs. Obama.
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: His "Pro-Life, Whole-Life" tour in Iowa
wrapped up over the weekend with events all over the state -- some of which Brownback attended in person; for others, he sent staff.
GILMORE: Here’s the
Washington Post piece on Gilmore’s exit from the race:
GIULIANI: For someone who supposedly is the moderate in the race, he's got some
strong support among traditionally conservative legal types. He can thank Ted Olson for those bona fides.
HUCKABEE: The former governor
reiterated that if he finishes worse than third at the Ames straw poll, “I have to seriously ask, 'Do we keep going? Do we have the juice in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina? Where are we gaining ground?'” Huckabee said Saturday at an Iowa campaign stop.
MCCAIN:
We expected to see some nostalgia-type reporting on McCain's latest New Hampshire trip, and we got it. Some of the coverage was downright hopeful in its tone. McCain should see this as an opportunity. It's not going to take much for a "McCain comeback" storyline to develop. Still as
Dan Balz reports, "There is little of that old exhilaration right now in the McCain campaign. The staff is shell-shocked. Some members are debating whether to stay or go. New campaign manager Rick Davis is stretched thin trying to rebuild and steady the operation. Money will be tight for weeks, maybe months. McCain's opponents will be circling, ready to strike at his weaknesses."
CONTINUED >>
A new Research 2000 poll looking at New Hampshire has some interesting results. First, check out who benefits the most when Al Gore is taken out of the mix in a Dem primary. With Gore, Clinton's lead over Obama is minimal (27%-23%), with Gore at 14% and Edwards at 10%. Take Gore out and Clinton jumps to 33%, Obama only moves to 25%, and Edwards moves up from 10% to 15%. The CW we believed is that Gore supporters are least likely to go to Clinton. Is the CW wrong? Or is this just a function of name ID?
On the GOP side, Research 2000 asked the primary with and w/o Fred Thompson just to see who moved down the most when he's included. Without Thompson, Romney's at 29%, McCain 23%, and Giuliani 22%. Toss in Thompson, and McCain gets hurt the most: Romney drops just a point to 28%, followed by Giuliani at 21%, McCain at 18%, and Thompson at 11%.
Perhaps the most telling thing in this poll, regarding McCain is his upside down fav/unfav rating among ALL voters. Actually, the only major GOP candidate with a net-positive rating among ALL voters is Giuliani. Could this be a sign that the Granite State's famed indie vote is going to end up in the Dem primary? All of the major Dem candidates have net-positives.
CONTINUED >>
There are a couple of "ouch" columns for the occupant of the White House worth pointing out. First,
Peggy Noonan wonders: "As I watched the news conference, it occurred to me that one of the things that might leave people feeling somewhat disoriented is the president's seemingly effortless high spirits. He's in a good mood. There was the usual teasing, the partly aggressive, partly joshing humor, the certitude. He doesn't seem to be suffering, which is jarring. Presidents in great enterprises that are going badly suffer: Lincoln, LBJ with his head in his hands. Why doesn't Mr. Bush? Every major domestic initiative of his second term has been ill thought through and ended in failure. His Iraq leadership has failed. His standing is lower than any previous president's since polling began. He's in a good mood. Discuss."
And here's Hartford Courant columnist Kevin Rennie, who writes, "President Bush, prepare to be Poe'd -- Heather Poe'd. You remember Heather Poe, Mr. President. She's the former forest ranger who's been Vice President Dick Cheney's daughter Mary's partner since 1992… You may recall some backstage tension at the 2004 Republican convention over who would appear on the podium when the Bush and Cheney families took their bows on closing night. Poe was a no-go. Mary, working on the campaign as her father's major-domo, declined to take the salute without Heather. When Mary gave birth to a son in May, the photograph marking the occasion included Mary, baby Samuel, and Dick and Lynne Cheney. Sam may have two mommies, but Heather's not going to be in the official picture. That's a glimpse of your next 18 months, Mr. President. In this election cycle, Republicans would sooner be seen with Heather Poe than with you."
The San Francisco Chronicle writes that President Bush’s defense for commuting Libby’s sentence is at odds with his support of a new legislation meant to impose stricter guidelines on sentencing.
So we’ll have to wait one more day to get a glimpse of Sen. David Vitter, as he canceled a town hall that was scheduled for today. Sen. Vitter’s office released this statement yesterday: “U.S. Sen. David Vitter will reschedule his St. Helena town hall meeting to a date to be determined. Vitter is returning to Washington, D.C., for votes in the U.S Senate.”
So which airport will he be arriving at, DCA or IAD? There are three nonstop flights that land from New Orleans today to DCA: One lands at 9:30am, a second one at 2:19pm, and the last one arrives at 7:38pm this evening.
Meanwhile, GOP gubernatorial candidate Bobby Jindal (R) finally issued a statement on Vitter over the weekend: "Like so many, I have been disappointed by the senator's actions. Even though we are disappointed, my wife and I certainly keep him and his family in our prayers. This is something the senator is going to have to address and I hope he will do that. Certainly, I don't want anybody taking political advantage of it, but it's something he does have to address."
Also of note, ex-Rep. Bob Livingston -- the Louisiana Republican who had to resign over his extra-marital affairs and was eventually replaced by Vitter in Congress -- said Vitter should NOT resign. Livingston said Vitter should "pick himself up and charge forward."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
As we mentioned yesterday, during the NAACP forum Edwards called for ex-convicts’ voting rights to be re-instated. But a rival campaign tipped us off that Edwards voted against a 2002 amendment that would have done just that. It was introduced by Sen. Harry Reid and co-sponsored by Sens. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Russ Feingold (D-WI). The measure failed 63-31.
It would have been tacked on to a bill -- introduced by Dodd -- to help fund states to meet federal election technology requirements. The bill passed 99-1.
Of the Democratic presidential candidates who were in the Senate at the time, Clinton voted for Reid amendment; Edwards, Dodd and Biden all voted against.
“The vote was to protect the underlying bill to expand voting rights,” the Edwards campaign said, and quickly pointed out, “Dodd sponsored the bill and voted with Edwards.”
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Republican Sens. John Warner and Dick Lugar have written legislation requiring President Bush to draw up plans for a change of mission in Iraq, but it DOES NOT require the Administration to implement them. The amendment says those plans must be presented to Congress by October 16th and ready to be executed no later that December 31st. The measure contains no timetables for withdrawal.
The plan also calls on the Administration to "review and revise" the original war authorization passed by Congress in 2002. And after the review, "Congress expects"-- but not requires -- the president to resubmit a revised authorization for congressional approval.
The significance of this amendment may be weighted more toward its authors, two influential and reliable republicans, than on its substance. The specific elements of the bill have been introduced in some form or another in pending legislation. The change of mission virtually mirrors those from the Iraq Study Group report: from one of combat to one of counterterrorism, force and border protection, and training.
***UPDATE***READ MORE FOR WHITE HOUSE COMMENT
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Want to stir up GOP voters? Just say the names
Hillary Clinton,
Bill Clinton,
Barack Obama, or
John Edwards. But lately, Republican presidential candidates have turned to someone who isn't even a politician (past or present) to fire up their supporters: filmmaker Michael Moore. Just today, the
Giuliani campaign sent out a research document comparing Hillary Clinton's statements on health care with Michael Moore's -- in his new documentary, "Sicko." The headline on the document: "Bad Medicine: It's enough to make you Sicko." And it includes this quote from Giuliani (via last night's Sean Hannity Show): “[M]ichael Moore and Hillary Clinton want to make our [health care] system like the systems nobody goes to ...”
Earlier this week, Huckabee said, per the AP: "Frankly, Michael Moore is an example of why the health care system costs so much in this country. He clearly is one of the reasons that we have a very expensive system. I know that from my own personal experience." Ouch.
And, of course, there's that YouTube of Fred Thompson calling out Moore. "Mental institution, Michael," he says. "It might be something you ought to think about."
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
John McCain appeared upbeat about the state of his presidential bid while speaking to reporters after a national security speech in Concord, NH today. After a tough couple weeks -- which included news of having just $2 million in cash on hand (and perhaps just as much debt) and a campaign shakeup -- the Arizona senator touted his enthusiasm and ability to win over New Hampshire voters. “We go to town hall meetings, we fix our financial difficulties, and we win," he said. "I’m very confident. I even see the response we get from the people here today in New Hampshire.” When asked by a reporter if there is any way he may not still be in the race come January, he responded that nothing short of contracting a fatal disease will keep him off the campaign trail.
During his speech on Iraq and terrorism, McCain mostly stuck to his prepared remarks, which largely echoed
President Bush’s comments at yesterday's White House news conference. He conceded that violence still remains unacceptably high in Iraq, but cited a reduction in sectarian violence since January, as a result of the troop surge. He continued by objecting to any withdrawal date, saying: “Democratic candidates for president will argue for the course of cutting our losses and withdrawing from the threat in the vain hope it will not follow us here. I cannot join them in such wishful and very dangerous thinking.”
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Why, oh why would Sen.
Jim Bunning (R) vote against the amendment that would double the bounty on Osama bin Laden from $25 million to $50 million? The Kentucky conservative was the "1" in the 87-to-1 vote today on the measure, which was put forward by Sen.
Byron Dorgan (D). Bunning explains in a written statement:"Catching Osama bin Laden and other leaders of al Qaeda is something the United States government has already made a top priority. If Senator Dorgan truly supported our efforts to fight al Qaeda he would not support withdrawing from Iraq, a key battleground against al Qaeda and in the War on Terror."
From NBC's Jason Anton
Next week, John Edwards embarks on three-day, eight-state trip to highlight the issue of poverty in America. And the campaign seems intent on making the trip as symbolic as possible: Edwards begins with a tour Sunday night of New Orleans’ famously devastated 9th Ward; then travels through Marks, MS (the starting point for MLK Jr.’s 1968 Poor People’s March); and then ends the tour with a “major speech” in Prestonsburg, KY (where RFK concluded his 1968 visit of impoverished regions of the Bluegrass State).
Speaking of ambitious new initiatives -- and history lessons --
Bill Richardson has added his voice to the poverty discussion by calling for a “Marshall Plan for the 21st Century” to “eradicate poverty in the developing world.” Per a release, Richardson says combating poverty is a “moral imperative” that is “vital to the security of the United States,” as “poverty-stricken states produce terrorism."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
As we mentioned yesterday, Clinton and Edwards were caught talking on an open mic after the NAACP forum. Parts of it were inaudible, but it turns out they were talking about how to exclude lower-tier candidates from future forums/debates.
Here’s what was said per the Associated Press (via Fox News microphones): “'We should try to have a more serious and a smaller group,’ Edwards said. Clinton agreed. ‘We've got to cut the number. ... They're not serious,’ she said, then thanked Obama and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich as they walked by. Turning back to Edwards, she added that she thought their campaigns had already tried to limit the debates and ‘we've gotta get back to it.’”
At one point in the debate, Edwards laughed when he followed Kucinich, who called for the impeachment of Dick Cheney. “Dick Cheney, huh?” Edwards said, smiling and laughing. Gravel got the only boos of the debate when he called the audience “gullible.” Moderator Russ Mitchell chided Gravel, saying he broke the rules agreed upon by calling out other Democrats.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Circle The Wagons -- And Circle Your Calendars: One thing is clear from today’s clips: President Bush is trying to buy time for his troop surge, and Republicans in Congress seem willing to give it to him. For now. But all bets are off until September. One reason why the Bush White House lost so few Republicans in the House withdrawal bill that passed last night: Most of the squeamish moderates who were representing swing districts lost in 2006. Also, unlike Senate Democrats, House Democrats seem less interested in finding bills that would entice Republicans to cross party lines on Iraq. By the way, check out which Democrats voted with the Republicans versus the Republicans who voted with the Democrats. More potentially vulnerable House Democrats voted with the GOP than vice versa.
*** Two Different Strategies: What’s better politics: Offering up Iraq legislation that forces Republicans to vote against the Democrats, or offering up legislation that tries to find some Republicans to crossover and split the party? The Senate Democratic leadership seems to be attempting the latter, while the House Dems are doing the former.
*** A Granite State Of Mind: Iowa has received most of the candidates’ love and attention so far this presidential campaign season -- and for good reason. But New Hampshire becomes the center of attention today as it plays host to two big stories. One is McCain’s speech on Iraq in Concord. It’s his first campaign event since coming back from Iraq and, perhaps more importantly, his campaign shakeup this week. And per excerpts of his speech, what McCain will say is virtually identical to what Bush said yesterday. Meanwhile, the Bill & Hillary Show makes three stops in Keene, Nashua, and Manchester. Their trip to Iowa over the July 4th holiday got plenty of play. Will their New Hampshire sequel get the same kind of coverage, especially with the vultures circling over McCain in Concord? Yet NBC’s Andrea Mitchell notes that Hillary has delayed her departure to New Hampshire today to vote on a defense authorization amendment.
*** Is It Over? Speaking of McCain and those vultures (and today being Friday 13th), many political reporters and analysts have openly speculated that McCain’s presidential campaign is all but over -- given his paltry cash on hand and his sizable debt. But no one has said it as directly as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook does in his latest National Journal column: “For all intents and purposes, McCain’s campaign is over. The physicians have pulled up the sheet; the executors of the estate are taking over. Paying bills and winding down -- not strategizing, organizing, and getting a message out -- will be the order of the day.” Meanwhile, as further proof of his campaign's dire financial problems (or perhaps just because old habits die hard) McCain flew to New Hampshire last night in coach, NBC’s Mitchell notes. He brought along his son Jimmy, a Marine, because McCain said Jimmy is about to deploy "very, very soon" to Iraq.
*** Stepping It Up: For a while, it had been pretty obvious that Team Rudy was trailing the Romney and McCain camps in terms of organization and staff. But in recent days, we’ve seen a slew of Giuliani press releases for new hires in New Hampshire and (more strikingly) in the February 5th states. And yesterday, the campaign released a list of Iowa endorsements. They are stepping it up operationally at an important time -- as McCain’s prospects are sinking and before Fred Thompson gets ready to officially enter the field. No one name on these Giuliani lists has jumped out as a "wow," great get, but what’s noteworthy is the fact he’s finally trying to catch up organizationally to Romney.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden campaigns in Iowa; Brownback speaks at the College Republicans National convention in Virginia; Dodd meets with a local culinary workers’ union in Nevada; Edwards hosts five community meetings across Iowa; Huckabee is also in the Hawkeye State; Obama raises money in Las Vegas and Chicago; Paul becomes the latest to tour Google’s headquarters in California; Richardson raises money in Nevada, Utah, and California; and Tommy Thompson makes six more stops in Iowa.
*** And Time To Post Some Missing Signs? David Vitter’s missing, Day Four.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 29 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 52 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 99 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 116 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 127 days
Countdown to Iowa: 195 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 206 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 480 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 557 days
The
New York Times makes this point: “President Bush’s Iraq strategy now boils down to this: He is trying to buy time for a surge that is living on borrowed time.” The
Washington Post's Baker notes that Iraq policy is unlikely to shift in the very near-term: "The almost-certain result, according to strategists in both parties, will be at least two more months of anger and posturing but no change in direction.” By the way, the other part of Baker's analysis piece on the politics of Iraq that’s striking -- the White House’s new Senate goalpost is 67 votes versus 60 votes. Forget avoiding filibusters; it's now about sustaining vetoes. Are there really 18-20 Republicans ready to break with Bush on Iraq? Probably not.
A day after his news conference yesterday, Bush participates in a video teleconference this morning with Iraq provincial reconstruction leaders, as well as brigade combat commanders.
The New York Times also delves into a topic area that will dominate the debate today, especially among liberal bloggers: Bush's use of al Qaeda as the main Iraq boogeyman. "In rebuffing calls to bring troops home from Iraq, President Bush on Thursday employed a stark and ominous defense. ‘The same folks that are bombing innocent people in Iraq,’ he said, ‘were the ones who attacked us in America on September the 11th, and that’s why what happens in Iraq matters to the security here at home. It is an argument Mr. Bush has been making with frequency in the past few months, as the challenges to the continuation of the war have grown. On Thursday alone, he referred at least 30 times to Al Qaeda or its presence in Iraq.”
CONTINUED >>
If there was a "winner" from yesterday's NAACP forum, it was Obama, judging by today's clips. Perhaps Obama's presentation was bolstered by the help of preparation, as he came to the podium with more notes than he normally does. From the
New York Times: "Although this was not a debate -- the event was billed as a forum for ideas -- it was as if Mr. Obama, the only black candidate, enjoyed the home field advantage over the seven other Democrats and one Republican who had accepted invitations. And he performed as if he knew it."
The Detroit Free Press: "Obama was the clear crowd favorite at the NAACP presidential forum in Detroit on Thursday, winning thunderous applause just for walking on stage and standing ovations when he spoke."
The Detroit News: "Obama, an African-American appearing before an African-American crowd in the most predominantly African-American large city in the country, drew by far the loudest applause."
The Boston Globe uses the NAACP forum to examine the battle for the black vote between Clinton and Obama, and it concludes that it's going to be a much more closely divided battle than some of us believe. (There’s even a quote from rapper Master P, who said at the forum, "Those are two great candidates for our community and our people. I like what they talk about, I like what they stand for.")
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
Jury selection is
scheduled for Sept. 5th in the trial of former Giuliani South Carolina chairman Thomas Ravenel, who pleaded not guilty last week on federal drug charges.
Is someone else trying to derail Giuliani’s campaign -- or at least use it as inspiration to get into shape? “I get up 5:30 every morning, work out. I put Giuliani's picture on my treadmill,” Al Sharpton told the
Daily News. "I'm getting in shape to go on the road if he's the Republican nominee."
HUNTER:
The
Los Angeles Times finally does a lengthy piece on the one semi-local candidate -- he's from San Diego -- they have running for president: Duncan Hunter. The headline is "Duncan Hunter's Toughest Fight Yet." And here’s the nut graph: "Hunter has virtually no organization in Iowa, where organizing is key to caucus success. His New Hampshire team is eight volunteers, and campaign fundamentals get missed: Although Hunter is starved for media coverage, during a two-day visit here the campaign failed to tell the only reporter tracking him that the second day's itinerary had changed, sending the reporter and Hunter to cities 45 miles apart."
CONTINUED >>
This week's
Time features a cover story on the Democratic Party's attempts to look more religious to rank-and-file voters. The story is bolstered by a poll indicating that Obama is seen as more religious than every other candidate for president (Republican or Democrat) except for Romney.
And some Bloomberg news… New Yorkers like their mayor, according to a new poll, “but those numbers
don't translate -- yet -- into support for a rumored presidential run by the billionaire mayor. A full 54 percent of New York voters don't want him to run for president in 2008, and 64 percent don't think he could win as an independent candidate.”
Some local Louisiana Republicans finally
spoke out in support of Vitter yesterday, but still no word from the state's most prominent Republican after Vitter -- soon-to-be Gov. Bobby Jindal (R). By the way, Vitter's next scheduled public appearance is a town hall meeting Monday in Greensburg. The state Democratic Party will begin
circulating a petition today to call on Vitter to resign.
And one of the prostitutes that Vitter regularly called upon is profiled in today's New Orleans Times-Picayune. She's not, um, a model citizen.
BREAKING NEWS: The US House voted 223-201 to pull combat troops from Iraq by April, ignoring a Bush veto threat. Four Republicans voted with the Democrats.
*****UPDATE*****
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Only four Republicans crossed the line and voted with Dems, but 10 Democrats voted against the measure.
Reasons:
-- GOP leaders made the case that this was an empty political vote.
-- They hold the line for three more weeks until recess. When they get back after Labor Day, it all changes and there will be plenty of time to vote for a change in the mission.
-- The bill language wasn't worth defecting for... the measure does not specify troop levels. There could be a far smaller reduction than envisioned by proponents. The bill calls for Americans to remain in Iraq to fight al Qaeda and to train Iraqis. How many troops will that require?
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
After today's NAACP forum,
Obama reacted to the Iraq Initial Benchmark Assessment Report released this morning. He was not satisfied with the results and called for a new system of evaluations.
"This administration fudged the numbers and has formed intelligence to get us into the war and now it appears they are using phony evaluations to keep us in the war," he said. "If you look at the benchmarks that they say are satisfactory, most of them pertain to having set up committees or set up meetings or begun a process. The actual measurables, whether we ... dealt with the de-Baathification issue [and] have we actually seen significant reductions in militias being armed. Those kinds of measureables are not being discussed in this evaluation and as a consequence, deny reality."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
An evangelical leader tells
CBN’s David Brody, “It’s Fred Thompson’s race to lose.” Here the full quote from Dr. Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission:"My assessment is that at this moment in time it is Fred Thompson's race to lose. It may be a convergence of the right man, in the right place and at the right time. I have never seen anything like this grassroots swell for Thompson. I'm not speaking for Southern Baptists but I do believe I have my hand on the pulse of Southern Baptists and I think I know where the consensus is."
Brody’s take: “This has got to be a major concern for Mitt Romney…not to mention frustrating ….Romney needs some of those Evangelical heavyweights. Having them in his hip pocket is crucial. It would give him cover on the Mormon issue.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Romney is up today with yet another ad in New Hampshire and Iowa.
This one is a radio ad with his wife Ann highlighting their 38-year marriage, that "Mitt says his greatest success is being able to say 'I've been a good father, and a good husband' and ” there's no work more important than what goes on within the four walls of the American home.Hmm. Thinly veiled shot at Giuliani (who’s on his third marriage) and Fred Thompson (who’s on his second)?
CONTINUED >>
...it pours for John McCain.
The AP: "State Rep. Bob Allen, a co-chair of Republican presidential candidate John McCain's Florida campaign, is expected to address Thursday charges that he offered to perform oral sex on an undercover male police officer for $20."
"Allen, who sponsored a failed bill that would have tightened the state's prohibition on public sex, scheduled a news conference at his lawyer's office to discuss Wednesday's arrest. A spokeswoman for Allen declined further comment."
From NBC's Eric Wexler
Merriam-Webster's dictionary just announced its list of new words added to its 2007 edition. Those new words include IED, DVR, telenovela, smackdown, and ginormous (a combination of the words gigantic and enormous, for those of you wondering).
In the
Brownback campaign's latest jab at
Romney via press release, they propose a late addition to the new word list: "Mitt-amorphasis." The word is used to mean, the press release says, "A self-directed and self-contradictory cyclical process, occurring in even-numbered years, by which a Massachusetts politician transforms at will." (Yet the Brownback folks might want to brush up on their grammar before suggesting any more new words. "Mitt-amporhasis" would be a noun -- not a verb, as the press release states.)
*** Update*** Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden responds to this Brownback release: “If making up imaginary words is what the American people cared about, some campaigns wouldn’t be doing so poorly. The American people care about ideas and strong leadership and Mitt Romney is gaining support across the country because he is the best candidate running an idea-based campaign on important issues.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro, Carrie Dann, Lauren Appelbaum, Jenny Anzelmo and Andrew Merten
It was last comic standing at the NAACP forum:
--Richardson: "I want to thank the NAACP for inviting me here. It's a great honor. But I have a little beef to pick with you. You just invited Congressman Tancredo, who I think said he wants to send me back to Mexico.”
--Dodd: "Well, I want to thank the NAACP for allowing me to follow Barack Obama here today," a smiling Dodd said wryly.
--Kucinich: Said the Supreme Court justices are “working with a Constitution that doesn't have a 13th, 14th and 15th amendment.” He then said, "I think it's time to impeach Dick Cheney."
--To which, a smiling, laughing Edwards turned to Kucinich and said, "Dick Cheney, huh?"
--"MAURICE!" Gravel: "I'm not a cheerleader."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama stood out today at the NAACP forum -- for the first time outshining Clinton at a debate/forum. He took a much tougher, more direct tone than he did at the Howard University debate last month. He was greeted by thunderous applause and shouts -- much more so than any other candidate. And he received the loudest cheers for his well crafted opening speech, in which he weaved the theme "We still have more work to do" throughout.
Clinton and Edwards were fine and delivered adequate answers, but they just could not match Obama’s luster today.
Clinton offered solid policy options and highlighted her experience.
"I expanded Head Start as First Lady," Clinton said. And she received strong applause with her answer on how to stop gun violence. She highlighted policies implemented during the 1990s, but interestingly she didn’t say “my husband” or even mention the Clinton administration.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Carrie DannHillary Clinton was the victim of an unknowingly unsilenced microphone after this morning's NAACP forum in Detroit. Junkies might just blow their eardrums out trying to catch what she was saying to
John Edwards during the 45 seconds that her microphone was hot, but the audio was mostly drowned out by thanks from host Russ Mitchell and by an organist's rousing rendition of "God Bless America." But here's the tantalizing pieces that we picked out of the cacophony:
"But we've got to (inaudible) ... They are just being trivialized... You know, I think there was an effort by our campaign to do that. Somehow we got to get back to it. Because that's all we are going to do."
She then shared a quick handshake with her No.1 rival, chirping "Thanks, Barack!" and then another "Thanks Dennis!" to Kucinich.
Here's the kicker for the pundits and conspiracy theorists: Clinton turned back to Edwards and concluded, "So, our guys should talk."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Minority Leader
John Boehner did not repeat his
"wimps" line today when given the chance to do so publicly. Boehner held his weekly presser simultaneous with the president's, at times literally echoing what the president was saying on Iraq. He wants to "give General Petraeus a chance to succeed" and "wait and hope that progress is being made" come September. "We are ignoring the consequences of failure," he said. He rejects today's Democratic measure that would set a deadline of April 1, 2008 for withdrawal.
Asked what he meant when he referred to Sens. Lugar, et al, as "wimps," Boehner said that he was merely using the term "to illustrate that just six weeks ago Congress voted to support" the surge with funding. "Here we are 48 days later...having this silly debate that means nothing. It was a way of illustrating the point that we ought to give our generals on the ground a chance to succeed," he explained.
Today's House vote on Iraq, however, may mean more than nothing to some Republicans. There is some angst with GOP leadership ranks about possible defections to the Democratic side on the vote. Estimates of how many that might be are all over the map, but the mean appears to be around two dozen. Last time out on the same question, only two crossed the aisle and voted for a spring withdrawal.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Not surprisingly, Iraq dominated President Bush's news conference this morning. Also not surprisingly, he stuck with his standard script, despite recent reports suggesting that the White House might be looking for a change of course there.
Bush said that the real debate over Iraq is between those who believe the war is lost and those who believe it can be won. "I believe we can succeed in Iraq, and I know we must." He addressed the interim Iraq progress report released today -- which notes that just eight out of the 18 benchmarks have achieved satisfactory progress -- by saying that we need more time to judge the progress there. "The bottom line is that this is a preliminary report coming less than a month after the full reinforcements came to Iraq." He concluded, "The best way to begin bringing home the troops is to make sure our strategy succeeds."
In one surprise, however, Helen Thomas got to ask the first question during the Q&A session. She charged that Bush brought Al Qaeda into Iraq. The president replied that he "hoped to solve" Iraq diplomatically before war began (really?), and that the world is better off without Saddam Hussein. "It is a necessary war to secure our peace," he said. "We ought to defeat them there so we don't have to face them here."
VIDEO: President Bush on Iraq
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
Obama received off-the-radar sustained applause and shouts from the crowd. By far, the loudest of any of the candidates.Clinton and Edwards received good applause but nothing like Obama.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
The NAACP has set up placards for all of the Republican 08 candidates at each podium -- highlighting the no-shows except for Tancredo.Tancredo got strong applause. He laughed at the empty podiums and took a mild shot at his Republican opponents. "This is my kind of debate," he said. "Do I know something they don't know? No, I think I know something they don't know."
*******UPDATE********
Tancredo said proponents of immigration reform have "the audacity to call 'amnesty' the modern day civil rights movement." He earned big applause for saying "There is no comparison" between the two movements. Is he banking on black Americans' concern over jobs lost to illegals trumping the elements of common experience between the Hispanic and black communities? And is he trying to play on the tensions between some blacks and Hispanics highlighted in cities like Los Angeles and Houston?
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Deflected! At this point in the campaign, it’s fair to say that the Clinton and Fred Thompson camps have done the best jobs in deflecting their negatives. Clinton has shifted her Iraq stance subtlely enough to make criticisms of her past statements on the war seem like petty old news. But also check out below how Fred Thompson’s non-denial denial that he lobbied for an abortion-rights group back in the early 1990s got a free pass from Sean Hannity and an influential conservative blog. If Thompson does get a pass from conservatives on this issue, it really does show the hunger there is out there for another candidate. And if this level of forgiveness continues, then Thompson may be in an even stronger position than some of us realized. The same also holds true for Clinton.
*** Mission Accomplished (For Now): Speaking of deflections… As far as immediate damage control, it appears the Giuliani folks did pretty well regarding yesterday's allegations from the firefighters union. However, this isn't about how they handle this now, which is important; it's how dogged the union will be against Giuliani over the long haul. One gets the impression this won't be the last we hear on this issue. Giuliani's pre- and re-buttals helped turns things into a he said-he said. By the way, check out the traffic on these releases on Giuliani's web site, it appears traffic on this story doubled or tripled.
***
Forum Time: The big event today is the NAACP presidential forum in Detroit, moderated by CBS’s Russ Mitchell and CNN’s Soledad O’Brien. All eight Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- will be on the stage together at around 10:30 am ET. Tancredo is the sole Republican scheduled to address the NAACP, and he will take the stage before the Democrats. The Boston Globe asks: Are Republicans missing opportunities by not appearing at these kinds of forums?
*** Lots Of Good Questions To Ask: But what is going to get more coverage -- the NAACP forum or Bush’s press conference, which will also take place at 10:30 am ET? The White House just announced this presser.
*** Field Of Nightmares: Don’t miss below that Richardson accidentally hit a photographer while taking batting practice at Iowa’s Field of Dreams. Honest question: Has there been a politician who played a sport -- and played it pretty well -- who has encountered more trouble over that particular sport? There’s the controversy over whether Richardson was actually drafted to play baseball. Then there’s his recent statement on Meet the Press that he likes both the Yankees and Red Sox (which is impossible!). And now there’s the hit photographer at Field of Dreams.
*** Vitter Watch: It’s Day Three of David Vitter in hiding after it was revealed his phone records were on a DC Madam’s phone list. Realize that Vitter's AWOL status comes in a week that has been one of more active in terms of Senate votes on Iraq. Imagine if Vitter's vote (or lack thereof) is decisive on Iraq. Should Hannity get his radio show bookers ready for a Vitter call-in soon?
*** On The Trail: After today’s NAACP forum, Edwards meets with voters in Iowa; Obama heads to Grand Rapids, MI and then Las Vegas; and Richardson will be in Sparks, MI and then heads to Reno. Meanwhile, Giuliani also will be in Michigan, speaking at a state GOP fundraiser. Huckabee and Tommy Thompson are in Iowa, and McCain travels to Delaware this morning for a fundraiser before heading back to the Senate.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 30 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 53 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 100 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 117 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 128 days
Countdown to Iowa: 196 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 207 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 481 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 558 days
The New York Times gets the advanced scoop on the Iraq progress report that will come out in the next few days. Per the article, the Bush Administration “will assert … that progress in carrying out the new American strategy in Iraq has been satisfactory on nearly half of the 18 benchmarks set by Congress… But it will qualify some verdicts by saying that even when the political performance of the Iraqi government has been unsatisfactory, it is too early to make final judgments, the officials said. The administration’s decision to qualify many of the political benchmarks will enable it to present a more optimistic assessment than if it had provided the pass-fail judgment sought by Congress when it approved funding for the war this spring.”
Republican leaders’ support of President Bush in blocking legislation that would make it harder for military units to be redeployed to Iraq has made some Democrats rethink the possibility of bipartisan cooperation. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that the possibility of a bipartisan proposal calling for implementation of last year’s Iraq Study Group proposals has past, “’It doesn’t have the teeth of a toothless tiger. It won’t change one thing the president does.’”
NBC’s Ken Strickland says that White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley met with a diverse group of Republican senators yesterday, trying to beat back any legislative effort to change the president's war strategy. The message from the Administration today, according to some members: Wait until General Petraeus' mid-September report before doing anything.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
Des Moines Register's Beaumont delves into Clinton's Iraq stance, and it's exactly how the campaign wants nervous anti-war activists to view things. "Clinton's speech in Des Moines this week about the future of Iraq was an attempt to convince influential Iowa Democrats that she is best suited to lead on this defining issue, rather than an effort to placate anti-war activists in the leadoff caucus state. Top campaign aides to the New York senator say they chose Iowa to lay out her plan to withdraw U.S. troops and stabilize the region in part because she trails in the race for the caucuses, with six months to go."
Being on the anti-Iraq side is clearly necessary in Iowa, Beaumont adds: "Senior campaign aides say Clinton's vote to authorize the Iraq war does not appear to figure significantly in primary voters' opinions, although they insist internal polling shows Clinton's support increases when voters associate her with her plan to get out of Iraq."
So is Clinton getting a free pass on her evolved position on the war or is this shift been done subtlely enough that she's escaped criticism? One of us explored the issue yesterday. Surprisingly, Clinton's opponents have NOT done a good job of trying to push back on Clinton on this issue. Of course, her opponents would argue that it's not their job but the media's. You be the judge.
CONTINUED >>
At today’s NAACP forum, the only Republican in attendance will be Tancredo. At last week’s National Education Association conference, only Huckabee attended -- and he received standing ovations. The Boston Globe says Republicans are missing an opportunity. “Republican nominees have overwhelmingly skipped national conferences and conventions of groups some believe, often wrongly, as being singularly liberal in mission and membership. The candidates' campaign cited ‘scheduling conflicts’ as a reason for passing on the events, but organizers of the conferences see a pattern of rejection.”
BROWNBACK:
A day after Iowans in some counties rejected a one-cent local-option sales tax increase, Brownback
called for a flat income tax and called himself the “conservative alternative.”
GIULIANI:
The
New York Times on the firefighter video: “Some of the video’s assertions are at the very least subject to debate. There is no dispute, for instance, that there were communications failures on Sept. 11. But the video highlights the hand-held radios, whereas the central problem, most experts agree, was the failure of a device meant to boost the signal so that it could reach the high floors of the towers. The video also implies that Mr. Giuliani was more concerned about securing some $200 million in gold stored in a basement vault at the World Trade Center than in recovering the remains of the dead, an accusation widely dismissed by people who closely monitored the cleanup.”
CONTINUED >>
A group that wants to make extreme poverty and disease a main issue in the campaign has opened offices in New Hampshire. ONE Vote ’08 was started by U2’s Bono and receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are the least religious candidates, according to a new Time poll per the New York Post. Romney and Obama got the highest scores. (Does the Clinton campaign begin working harder to demonstrate how religious Clinton actually is?)
The Los Angeles Times’ political guru, Z. Barabak, delves into labor's role (particularly the culinary union) in the Nevada caucus.
“Harriet E. Miers, President Bush's former counsel, yesterday
rebuffed a subpoena demanding her congressional testimony, as former White House political director Sara Taylor told a Senate panel she did not speak with Bush about the administration's plans to fire a US attorneys last year.”
And now for the political fallout. The
Shreveport Times's John Hill reports some Louisiana Republicans are pondering whether to call for Vitter's resignation. In fact, an intriguing scenario may be developing: Key party leaders would call for Vitter's resignation in "and packaging a deal with Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco to appoint a place-holding Republican to take his spot." Speculation has centered around former Gov. David Treen, a Republican defeated by Vitter in the 1999 congressional race. Treen met with his brother, John Treen, of Metairie, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, in Metairie to discuss the issue Wednesday.
He won't face criminal charges for using a prostitute, reports the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "The statute of limitations for bringing solicitation of prostitution charges, a misdemeanor in both Louisiana and Washington D.C. suggest that the opportunity to bring charges has passed."
As for where Vitter is, his office released a new statement yesterday indicating that the senator would return to work "soon."
By the way, Vitter's phone number appears at least five times on the D.C. Madam's phone log. "The records show that Vitter's number was called by Palfrey's service beginning Oct. 12, 1999, and ending Feb. 27, 2001, which was Mardi Gras."
Per the New York Post: “‘It wasn't all about sex," said former Canal Street brothel queen Jeanette Maier. ‘In fact, he just wanted to have somebody listen to him, you know. And I said his wife must not be listening,’ she told The Associated Press. The Post has also taken to calling Vitter the “Sin-ator” instead of the crosstown rival NY Daily News’ “Sen. Sinner.”
Breaking News: The AP is reporting that Lady Bird Johnson, the former First Lady, has died. She was 94.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
First she wasn't coming. Then she was. Then Sara Taylor came. And now she isn't.
Harriet Miers will not show up in person tomorrow to assert executive privilege, according to House Judiciary chair
John Conyers. "I am extremely disappointed in the White House's direction to Ms. Miers that she not even show up to assert the privilege before the Committee," Conyers said in a statement. "We understand that the White House has asserted privilege over both her testimony and documents, and we are prepared to consider those claims at tomorrow's hearing."
VIDEO: Bush orders Miers to defy House subpoena
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
As we mentioned earlier, during a speech in Des Moines yesterday Obama took to an idea posed by a retired veteran to extend education benefits for veterans. He said he would consider proposing legislation on it, according to the Des Moines Register, and a staffer said he “ ‘was serious enough about it to ask his Senate staff to start figuring out questions’ about costs and how it might work.”
We’ve learned that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) already introduced legislation to do this on May 1. Obama is not listed as one of the co-sponsors. The co-sponsors are Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA), Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA).
A phone call and e-mail to the Obama campaign have not yet been returned. We will update when we get a response.
*********UPDATE**************
The Obama campaign got back to us and said, "A number of different legislative options have been proposed to extend educational benefits for veterans, including the Cantwell bill. Senator Obama has been evaluating whether to cosponsor these bills or propose his own bill."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Republican leaders have headed to the White House for an Oval Office meeting with President Bush on Iraq.
Boehner, Blunt, McConnell, and Lott will be there to discuss where congressional Republicans are as Democrats press the issue once again this month.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The 2004 presidential campaign taught us many lessons, and one of them was this: Being seen as a flip-flopper can be politically devastating. John Kerry's now-famous "I actually did vote for the $87 billion, before I voted against it" furthered the GOP narrative that Kerry was a weak, indecisive politician willing to say anything to get elected. And so far this election cycle, we've seen the press and pundits attach the flip-flopper label to Mitt Romney (on abortion, guns, and immigration), Giuliani (on partial-birth abortion and the public funding of abortion), and even Mr. Straight Talk John McCain (on taxes and Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell).
But Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton -- who was for the Iraq war before she was against it -- has been getting mostly a free pass as she's morphed into an antiwar candidate. Just check out today's Des Moines Register's coverage of her speech yesterday on Iraq. There's a picture of Hillary standing behind a lectern that says "The Plan to End the War." Then there's her quote: "Our message to the president is clear. It is time to begin ending this war -- not next year, not next month, but today." Yet the article doesn't mention that just a year ago, she said that setting a "date certain" for withdrawal was a mistake, which produced boos from the liberal audience that heard the speech. It also barely mentioned (in just one sentence) her 2002 vote to authorize the war.
And it's just not this Des Moines Register piece. When Clinton was asked at CNN's debate last month about her new antiwar views, she simply changed the subject. On her last-minute vote against the compromise war-funding bill, Clinton answered: "The differences among us are minor. The differences between us and the Republicans are major. And I don't want anybody in America to be confused." And when asked why she voted for every previous war-spending bill until that one, she responded: "Unfortunately, we don't have a president who is willing to change course. And I think it was time to say enough is enough… Everybody on this stage, we are all united... We all believe that we need to try to end this war."
"The coverage of Hillary on Iraq is a travesty of American journalism," a aide to a rival campaign tells First Read. "It is horrendous."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrea Mitchell and Libby Leist
Intelligence officials told Congress today that the surge of U.S. troops in Iraq has not yet controlled the violence enough to permit political reconciliation to work.So far, it has been a bleak assessment on Iraq from the intelligence community about political prospects in the country.
Dr. Thomas Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence, told Congress that the surge has not yet had a sufficient effect on the violence in order to move the country to a place where the serious obstacles for political reconciliation can be overcome. Fingar added it would be difficult to bridge the political divides.
In prepared testimony, Fingar reports there have been "few appreciable gains" in the political situation following the surge. He adds that Al Qaeda's mass casualty attacks in Iraq are "effective accelerants" for sectarian violence. His judgement differs from frequent White House statements that Al Qaeda is more than an accelerant and is the main cause of violence in Iraq.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A brief reality check on the Iraq war withdrawal plans now being considered on both sides of the Capitol: The bottom line is that regardless of Democratic efforts in the Senate -- and now suddenly in the House as well -- the calendar dictates that little will be resolved legislatively until September, when everyone agrees that things are going to have to change anyway.
First, what the Senate is considering this week and next is NOT a funding bill. It is an 'authorization' bill. Federal programs live on without explicit authorization all the time. Essentially, it could be ignored by the president. That is, if he doesn't bother to veto it, which he says he will if it has timelines and other restrictions. That means that Democrats are back to square one -- using the defense spending bill to cut off funding. But the Senate will not take that up until September, due in part to a four-week recess in August.
VIDEO: Bush vows veto on Iraq pullout bill
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Dear John:
The most positive way to look at yesterday's events in the McCain campaign is to assert that McCain took control of his campaign, finally. At least that's the way the "winners" of the internal power are portraying things. There was a battle between John Weaver and Rick Davis for the heart and mind of McCain, and Davis won. Why McCain lost confidence in Weaver -- and not Davis -- is unclear given that everyone in both so-called McCain camps made the same wrong assumption on how much money McCain could raise. If yesterday was bottom for John McCain's campaign, then there is light at the end of the tunnel. The question, of course, is whether yesterday was bottom. The campaign has weeks, not months, to get things back on track. Will he move to Iowa? How much does he attempt to emulate John Kerry? It's the comparison the campaign is clinging to.
*** Other Thoughts On McCain: As for the rest of the GOP field, watch for both Giuliani and Fred Thompson to almost compete for McCain's love. Both probably believe they’re the one with the best chance to win McCain's endorsement. Finally, one more closing thought: There's a Shakespearean tragic element to McCain's problems getting to the White House. Bush stopped him in 2000 as an opponent, and he stopped him again in 2007 as an ally. Perhaps the biggest incorrect assumption McCain's camp made this year was trying to emulate Bush's 2000 and 2004 campaigns. Will McCain be uttering the name "Bush" in frustration for years to come?
*** A Swift Kick…: The International Association of Fire Fighters, hardly a friend of Giuliani, unveils a 13-minute documentary video at 5:00 pm ET today that attempts to whack the former New York mayor’s 9/11 credentials. “Giuliani is running on 9/11, but the video outlines his leadership failures on 9/11,” an IAFF spokesman tells First Read. “The story is told by fire fighters, fire officers, and family members of those who died.” Does Giuliani have his own Swift Boaters now? NBC’s Doug Adams takes a look below. Also, IAFF general president Harold Schaitberger talks about the video on MSNBC’s Hardball.
*** … And A Swift Response: In a clear pre-buttal to the IAFF, the Giuliani campaign released a document yesterday listing the positive things the former mayor did for New York’s firefighters. Former NYFD commissioner Howard Safir said in a statement: “Firefighters across the country have no greater friend than Rudy Giuliani. Those of us who have worked with Rudy Giuliani know he has always been a strong and consistent supporter of firefighters and first responders. On September 11th and the days that followed Mayor Giuliani once again demonstrated his commitment to the safety and well being of our firefighters and his respect for their extraordinary courage and sacrifice.”
*** The Ick Factor: Affairs seem easy to overcome in today's political climate, but what about the frequenting of prostitutes? The Vitter news seems to raise the level of "ick," even for those who've come to expect loveable Louisiana rogues. Remember, this is an election year in Louisiana, and the last thing Republican Governor-in-waiting Bobby Jindal needs is a tarnishing of the GOP brand. Jindal's first public comments will be interesting.
*** On The Trail: Brownback makes a policy announcement while speaking to an Iowa business group; Edwards, in Las Vegas, hosts a town hall meeting with a local sheet metal workers union; Giuliani tapes a TV interview in Manchester, NH and then meets with volunteers and supporters; Huckabee makes four stops in Iowa and hosts two conference calls; Kucinich meets with the Executive Council of the American Federation of Teachers in DC; Red Sox/Yankees fan Richardson stops by the “Field of Dreams” and then makes six more stops from Iowa to Ohio to Michigan; and Tommy Thompson has coffee and donuts in Iowa.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 31 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 54 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 101 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 118 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 129 days
Countdown to Iowa: 197 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 208 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 482 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 559 days
The
Los Angeles Times writes, “In the next few days, the Bush administration is scheduled to release a preliminary assessment of its overall Iraq strategy. Officials may point to signs of progress scattered across the country: a reduction in death-squad killings in Baghdad, agreements with tribal leaders in Al Anbar province, offensives north and south of the capital.” But: “U.S. forces so far have been unable to establish security, even for themselves. Iraqis continue to flee their homes, leaving mixed areas and seeking safety in religiously segregated neighborhoods.”
But another LA Times article notes that with his Iraq policies under criticism from even members of his own party, Bush “defiantly rejected calls to withdraw troops while Senate allies blocked the latest challenge to his strategy… The president's unwavering defense of his strategy came amid heightened expectations that growing Republican restlessness on Capitol Hill and the lack of progress in Iraq might persuade Bush to express more openness to changing course.”
After challenging Congress to wait for a military report in the fall before prematurely ending the conflict, President Bush failed to sway critics yesterday. Presidential hopeful Biden responded that “’Unless you change the mission, there is no hope…except for us to have a Saigon-type departure out of Iraq.’”
CONTINUED >>
If there was one lesson of 2004, NBC’s Doug Adams says, it was to respond to attacks quickly and directly. In the summer of 2004, John Kerry let a slowly building media campaign against his Vietnam War experience explode into a debacle. From that campaign came a new phrase to the political lexicon -- swift boating.
Well, Rudy Giuliani may have his own "Swift Boaters" now. NBC News was given an exclusive look at a 13-minute video prepared by the International Association of Firefighters, the union for professional firefighters. The video is essentially a long attack ad against Giuliani, and it’s supplemented by a comprehensive Web site entitled, "Rudy Giuliani: Urban Legend." Both the video and the Web site will be unveiled today at 5:00 pm ET. Simultaneously, the video is being uplinked to YouTube and other internet sites.
Adams notes that many firefighters are incensed by Giuliani's use of 9/11 in the campaign, and they are determined to pierce the "myth of Giuliani." They are offended that Giuliani is using the tragedy to raise money and create the backdrop for his presidential campaign, and they claim that he is distorting the truth in order to do it. The video uses testimonials from a half dozen firefighters and relatives of firefighters who died in the World Trade Center attack, and it makes three main arguments against Giuliani:\
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The candidate was
in New Hampshire yesterday, calling himself an “outsider” and promoting the “free market.” The diehard Yankees fan even said he had reason to root for the Red Sox (because of last night’s All Star game).
Giuliani also blasted medical marijuana supporters and Democrats’ health-care plans. But he was on the defensive, according to the Manchester Union-Leader, when asked why he hasn’t been in New Hampshire as often as other presidential candidates. “‘You've got to talk about other people about strategy of the campaign. I go where they tell me,’ he joked with reporters.”
The Nashua Telegraph played up high Giuliani's response to the 9/11 commission report question about whether U.S. foreign policy played a role in the attacks.
The New York Daily News also notes that Giuliani had to address the admission by Sen. David Vitter, a key Giuliani endorser, that his phone number was on a DC Madam’s phone list.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON:
The Clinton camp could not have asked for better coverage of her Iraq speech in today's
Des Moines Register. Speaking in front of a podium labeled “The Plan to End the War,” Clinton yesterday said she would bring the troops home within 60 days of being president. “It was part of a far-reaching postwar plan that focused as much on stabilizing Iraq after U.S. troops are gone as on bringing them home.” The
New York Daily News says Clinton and Obama traded jabs, with Obama “emphasizing and repeating the words ‘no do-overs,’” and Clinton saying America needs a president with “experience.”
Will Antonio Villaraigosa's very public marital problems harm the candidate he recently endorsed? Political consultant and strategist Darry Sragow thinks that Villaraigosa is now a liability to the Clinton campaign. "I think that they're going to say that's sort of the stand by your man or woman approach to things, but in reality, it's a distraction that she doesn't need, and arguably it's a distraction he doesn't need," says Sragow.”
EDWARDS:
Elizabeth Edwards campaigned in a gated community in New Hampshire yesterday, a week before Edwards is to launch a poverty initiative. “‘It is really important to have people inside gated communities as well as outside gated communities engaged if we are going to solve problems as huge as poverty in this country,’” Edwards said per the
Boston Globe in response to a reporter's question about whether it was an appropriate setting given her husband's anti-poverty drive.
CONTINUED >>
President Bush unveils the new James S. Brady White House press briefing room in the morning, and then he speaks on the budget in the afternoon.
The
Washington Post reports that former White House aide Sara Taylor WILL appear before the Senate Judiciary Committee today. She “will refuse to testify today about matters President Bush has deemed shielded by executive privilege, but she will offer to respond to other questions from senators that do not breach White House confidentiality, her attorney said yesterday.”
The New York Times also reports, “Former Surgeon General Richard H. Carmona told a Congressional panel Tuesday that top Bush administration officials repeatedly tried to weaken or suppress important public health reports because of political considerations.”
The Politico’s Elizabeth Wilner analyzes the challenges that repeat candidates McCain and Edwards face in their second bids for president. “At this moment in the 2008 race, they appear more likely to fall short of their first attempts than improve upon them. Their claims to top-tier status ring hollow now that a second round of disappointing fundraising reports have forced them to retool their operations and switch out top staff -- including a major purge by McCain on Tuesday. Political handicappers are carving out a second tier just for them.”
USA Today looks at all the different ways that the presidential candidates are trying to get low-dollar campaign contributions. “Small donors can be the lifeblood of a campaign, giving it a resource to tap for more money and volunteers during a lengthy presidential race. However, political experts say it's unclear whether having legions of small contributors will result in success: Just ask Democrat Howard Dean.”
The
New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that the madam who operated the high-end brothel frequented by Sen. Vitter decided to name Vitter as a client “because she was angry that the Washington allegations made him look like a one-dimensional adulterer, when she sees him as a ‘good man’ …She said the women who worked in her brothel considered Vitter a decent man.”
A Times-Picayune editorial says it’s not satisfied with Vitter’s confession. “Saying that he has made peace with people close to him does little to reassure his constituents, many of whom voted for him in part because of the values he expressed… His statement Monday is a start, but Sen. Vitter still has a lot to explain.”
Louisiana Gov. Blanco (D) said she's worried about the scandal's effect on the state’s efforts to get more federal funding for the Road Home program, which is $4 billion short of meeting homeowners' needs for rebuilding after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. “‘I am very disappointed at this news,’ she said. ‘... I will travel to Washington in the coming weeks to continue my conversations with congressional leaders, and I hope this scandal will not lessen their critical support of our recovery.’” Bobby Jindal has yet to comment.
From NBC's Carrie Dann
A picture-perfect family, a resume of Olympic proportions, and an impressively thick mane of hair have prompted no small number of observers to call
Mitt Romney a "slick" or "polished" candidate. It may be true that his opinions on big-ticket items -- like terror and taxes -- usually appear well-cultivated and TV-ready. But bumps along the campaign trail are showing more and more that Romney might not be as smooth as his coiffe might have you believe.
The former Massachusetts governor has already attracted criticism for his less-than-perfect responses to his past hunting experiences (those varmints!) and the fuss over the unconventional travel arrangement for his old family dog ("He likes fresh air!"). And during his latest swing through Iowa last week, Romney stutter-stepped through his share of minor clumsy moments. The casualties of such instances are often Romney's own strengths. For example, he opened a meeting with supporters with an anecdote about his wife that was intended to highlight her easygoing companionship. But its brief hint of lewdness -- his story ends with a towel-clad Ann Romney mistaking a hotel maintenance man for husband -- hardly matched the squeaky-clean image of their marriage he's tried so conspicuously to build.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In Des Moines, Obama was set to talk about the jobs and economy in a town hall at a community college. In light of the Iraq debate currently going on in the senate, he pressed the Iowans in attendance to call their congressional leadership to support a withdrawal.
"We have already started to see cracks in the support for the President among Republicans. Critical senators like Dick Lugar and Sen. Voinovich from Ohio have said they can no longer support the strategy. But we are still short. We need 16 votes in the Senate and a comparable number in the House," Obama said. "I need everybody here to make sure this week and over the next couple of weeks that you are contacting your senator who's not supporting a timetable, [and] you're contacting the two congressmen in Iowa who are not yet supporting a timetable, and tell them it is time to bring the troops home so we can start getting that money and reinvesting and rebuilding the American economy."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Coming off the Senate floor today, Republican presidential candidate
John McCain was swarmed by reporters seeking some straight talk about why two top aides resigned from his campaign today. And after a few minutes of persistent questions about "why" and "shakeups" and "trouble", McCain pushed back.
He said repeatedly that Terry Nelson and John Weaver were "loyal and good" friends who were NOT fired or asked to resign. He repeatedly told reporters he was "happy" with the campaign, adding "we're doing fine." No shakeup.
But he was still pressed on whether this is a shakeup. "If you don't accept what I say, that's fine. You're free to accept whatever," he said calmly. "I will repeat again: I'm very happy with the campaign. We remain loyal and good friends. I appreciate all they've done for me in the past and all they will do for me in the future."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Michael Bloomberg stands astride the worlds of business and politics as a very rich and powerful figure in American life. But he still can't control the weather. At least not yet.
Bloomberg and bunch of his mayor and congressperson friends were forced to flee for cover when their Washington press conference on gun legislation was hit by a sudden deluge and the sound of thunderclaps this afternoon. The event had started half an hour late to begin with, as several dozen journalists and tourists attracted to all the hubbub waited in smothering heat outside the House Cannon building. Finally there was movement as mayors Fenty and Menino, congressional members McCarthy and Ruppersberger, and several other local pols from around the country filed out of the air conditioned confines. Not one camera lens turned their way.
Most everyone was there to see Bloomberg, size the man up, and try and determine if he is the next Ross Perot. The plan was to get to him after the presser and pop him with questions: Can an independent win the presidential race? Is a message of bipartisanship really a winner? And half a billion of your own money to spend on this thing? Really?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann
In a press avail after his morning speech in Concord, NH,
Giuliani took questions about
John McCain's seemingly imploding campaign -- and also about Sen. David Vitter, who has endorsed Giuliani, but who has now admitted to being on a DC Madam's phone list.
On Vitter, Giuliani mostly dodged and said that he hasn't talked to the senator yet. He emphasized "this is a personal issue" and highlighted that he couldn't have achieved so much in the campaign and during his years as mayor without the good character of his staffers and supporters. "But," Giuliani added, "Some people disappoint you."
On McCain, he painted the changes in McCain's campaign as part of the ups and downs of the trail. "This is way too early for anybody to be written off," Giuliani said. "John McCain is a fighter."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
NBC News has learned that Rick Davis, who has been in the leadership of the campaign from the beginning, will take over the day-to-day operations, a similar role he had in 2000 for the McCain campaign. More coming on what happened to campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver. For those that know McCain world, the fact that Davis is in and Weaver and Nelson are out tells you where the battle lines inside the campaign were drawn.
From NBC's Mark Murray
McCain's presidential campaign has just announced that campaign manager Terry Nelson and chief strategist John Weaver are resigning from the campaign. Last week, Nelson had announced that he would be working for free, after it was revealed that the campaign had just $2 million cash on hand. Weaver, meanwhile, is McCain's longtime political adviser.
"This morning I informed Senator McCain that I would be resigning from his presidential campaign, effective immediately," Nelson said in a press release. "It has been a tremendous honor to serve Senator McCain and work on his campaign. I believe John McCain is the most experienced and prepared candidate to represent the Republican Party and defeat the Democratic nominee next year."
"As of today, I have resigned my position as chief strategist to John McCain's presidential campaign," Weaver added in the release. "It has been my honor and a distinct privilege to serve someone who has always put our country first. I believe that most Americans will come to the conclusion that I have long known there is only one person equipped to serve as our nation's chief executive and deal with the challenges we face, and that person is John McCain."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per the
AP, in his speech in Iowa today,
Barack Obama is going to call out
Hillary Clinton -- indirectly, it seems -- for her efforts to deauthorize the Iraq war (when she voted in 2002 to authorize it). Obama will say: "I believed then and still do that being a leader means that you'd better do what's right and leave the politics aside, because there are no do-overs on an issue as important as war."
*** UPDATE *** The Clinton campaign just released excerpts of Clinton's speech on Iraq today, in which she'll announce her plan to end the war and urge Bush to act immediately. “Our message to the President is clear. It is time to begin ending this war – not next year, not next month – but today.
“We have heard for years now that as the Iraqis stand up, our troops will stand down. Every year, we hear about how next year they may start coming home. Now we are hearing a new version of that yet again from the President as he has more troops in Iraq than ever and the Iraqi government is more fractured and ineffective than ever.
“Well, the right strategy before the surge and post-escalation is the same: start bringing home America’s troops now.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama is becoming like a mom (or British nanny) who gets the kids to take their medicine… but with a spoonful of sugar. He goes against the grain to tackle issues like race (see the latest
Newsweek) and education, as we
reported last week. But he is getting groups to listen to him and consider his points because of the way he frames his arguments. Reg Weaver, president of the National Education Association, reacted to Obama telling the NEA he supports merit pay.
"Any time you hear the word merit pay, many of us in the profession, an antenna goes up,” Weaver said. “Because the way merit pay has been used it has been abused; it has done nothing to enhance student learning. It seems every so often a lawmaker brings it up, but no one has brought it up like Obama has. He said he wants to do it with us, not to us.”
The American Federation of Teachers, the second largest teachers union behind the NEA, had a similar reaction.
I guess a spoonful does help the medicine go down. CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Under Pressure: Plan B it’s not, but the Washington Post is reporting that President Bush, under pressure from GOP lawmakers, will “launch a campaign emphasizing his intent to draw down U.S. forces next year and move toward a more limited mission if security conditions improve.” In fact, he “plans to lay out what an aide called ‘his vision for the post-surge’ starting in Cleveland today to assure the nation that he, too, wants to begin bringing troops home eventually." Is that enough for nervous Republicans -- not a change in course yet, but a promise to change course soon? This news comes just as the Democratic Senate campaign committee today will begin airing TV ads on Iraq targeting four incumbent Republican senators up for re-election in 2008: Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (in his home state of Kentucky), John Sununu (New Hampshire), Susan Collins (Maine), and Norm Coleman (Minnesota).
*** Mixed Signals? But if the White House is now willing to draw down US forces, how does it reconcile that with this front-page story from the New York Times? “[T]he United States ambassador and the Iraqi foreign minister are warning that the departure of American troops could lead to sharply increased violence, the deaths of thousands and a regional conflict that could draw in Iraq’s neighbors.” Also, don't miss Tony Snow's comments on TODAY this morning in which he said that the surge (which was announced months ago) has only been fully operational for two weeks.
*** Did Rudy Break Glass Or Walk Underneath A Ladder? First, Giuliani Iowa adviser Jim Nussle bolted to OMB. Then his South Carolina chair Thomas Ravenel got busted on cocaine charges. And now Louisiana Sen. David Vitter (R) -- perhaps Rudy’s biggest endorsement in the South -- has apologized for his number being on the DC Madam’s phone list. What’s next? Or does bad news just come in threes?
*** The Penn Is Mightier Than The Sword: Another memo by Clinton strategist Mark Penn is making the rounds regarding Hillary’s standing in public polls. Not surprisingly, the memo makes the case that Clinton is stronger now than she was when the campaign started (hard to dispute, frankly). But for real students of political polling, perhaps the most stunning thing about the memo is Penn's ease with which he'll cite other pollsters' work. Ask Penn if he'd give a client a memo like that that interprets ONLY other polls? Or averages of polls? More importantly, by being so open to citing any poll on the planet regarding this race, doesn't that mean they won't complain when some of these (questionable?) pollsters report bad news for Clinton? Unlikely. Also, why is the Clinton camp is so determined to prove that the primary is not competitive?
*** The Duel in Des Moines? Well, not quite. Both Clinton and Obama make remarks in Des Moines, IA today before heading back to DC region. Clinton speaks on Iraq, while Obama talks jobs and the economy (but expect a little Iraq mixed in). Clinton is then off to a hefty fundraiser in Annapolis, MD, while Obama dines in DC with the four winners of his “Dinner with Obama” contest.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Dodd appears on MSNBC’s Hardball; Edwards is down, but wife Elizabeth hits South Carolina and New Hampshire; Gilmore is in New Hampshire; so is Giuliani, who attends two town hall meetings; and Huckabee, Richardson, and Tommy Thompson all stump in Iowa.
*** Super Tuesday: For coverage and commentary of some of these events -- and much, much more -- be sure to tune into another installment of MSNBC’s all-day “Super Tuesday” political coverage. The guests who will make appearances though out the day include (in order) Huckabee, Gravel, DNC chair Howard Dean, Sen. Pete Domenici (R), Hunter, Kucinich, and Tommy Thompson.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 32 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 55 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 102 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 119 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 130 days
Countdown to Iowa: 198 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 209 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 483 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 560 days
The
Washington Post: “President Bush, facing a growing Republican revolt against his Iraq policy, has rejected calls to change course but will launch a campaign emphasizing his intent to draw down U.S. forces next year and move toward a more limited mission if security conditions improve, senior officials said yesterday… The White House devised the political strategy after days of intense internal discussions about how to respond to several prominent Republican senators who have broken with Bush's war policy recently. Bush decided against heeding their proposal to begin redeploying U.S. troops as early as this summer, but he and his team concluded that he needed to shift his message to show that he shares the goals of his increasingly restless Republican caucus and the broader public.”
More from the New York Times story: “Two months before a pivotal assessment of progress in the war that he and the overall American military commander in Iraq are to make to the White House and Congress in September, Ryan C. Crocker, the ambassador, laid out a grim forecast of what could happen if the policy debate in Washington led to a significant pullback or even withdrawal of American forces, perhaps to bases outside the major cities.”
Meanwhile, “Opposition to the Iraq war has reached a record high, a USA TODAY/Gallup poll finds, a development likely to complicate President Bush's efforts to hold together Republican support as the Senate begins debate this week on Pentagon priorities… Still, 55% say Congress should wait to develop a new policy on Iraq until Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, delivers a promised assessment in September; 40% say Congress should act now.” Bush’s approval rating in the poll is at a new low of 29%.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post examines the Democratic candidates’ health-care plans. By the way, did anyone else know Rahm Emanuel has a THIRD fairly famous brother?
CLINTON:
Tom Edsall, now of the
HuffingtonPost.com, delves into the bitter lawsuit involving Clinton pollster Mark Penn under the headline "Nasty polling company lawsuits threaten to become diversion for Clinton campaign." Penn's becoming an interesting character on the campaign trail. Will he become this cycle's Rove, the strategist various members of the media love to hate or hate to love?
Speaking of Penn, here’s an excerpt of his memo we referred to above. “With two quarters of 2007 behind us and just 6 months to go until the Iowa caucuses it is a good time to see where Hillary stands and why. The bottom line? Hillary’s electoral strength has grown in the last quarter and she is better positioned today than ever before to become the next President of the United Sates. Recent polls have her at or near 40% with leads of 15-20 points over her nearest competitors. Voters yearn for change and they say that Hillary has the strength and experience to actually bring about that change. Hillary’s message: that her strength and experience will bring real change that America needs, is resonating strongly with voters.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
The
AP previews Giuliani's campaign stop in New Hampshire this week, and it notes it’s his first trip there in a month (compared with his more extensive travel to bigger -- and later -- states). "Some speculate that Giuliani is deliberately lowering expectations for his performance in Iowa, New Hampshire and another early voting state, South Carolina… Giuliani is not devoting the same level of staff or resources in those states as other candidates. Even a lesser-known foe, Kansas Sen. Brownback, has more staff in Iowa."
MCCAIN:
Per his campaign, McCain will give a speech on Friday in New Hampshire, where he’ll be speaking about his trip but also taking a broader look at the war on terror.For anyone who thought the
US News item about John McCain giving up his Senate seat had legs, The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has key McCain folks vehemently denying the report (and using some very colorful language in the process).
CONTINUED >>
The Detroit Free Press curtain-raises this week's NAACP forum where up to nine presidential candidates will participate -- eight Democrats and just one Republican. The only Republican to accept the NAACP's invite? Tom Tancredo.
The web trade site, ClickZ network, examines the Web ad-buying strategies of the presidential campaigns. In June, for instance, McCain outspent Romney on the Web. To date, McCain has spent the most online.
The Boston Globe runs a picture profile of the most influential players in the New Hampshire primary.
And Michael Bloomberg is in DC today for anti-gun press conference on Capitol Hill.
The lawyer for former White House Counsel Harriet Miers has officially informed the House Judiciary Committee last night that Miers "cannot provide the documents and testimony that the Committee seeks," NBC’s Viqueira says. Miers is under subpoena to testify this coming Thursday. The letter from Miers' lawyer George Manning, obtained by NBC News, states that Miers "is subject to conflicting demands" from Congress and the president, who has asserted executive privilege. Miers "has no other choice that to comply with the direction given her by Counsel to the president," Manning wrote.
Two other letters from White House counsel Fred Fielding to Manning, also obtained by NBC, make it very clear where the White House stands. "I respectfully request that you inform Ms. Miers that the president has directed her not to provide testimony," Fielding said. The two Fielding letters were forwarded along with Manning's letter to the committee by Manning.
But a House committee source says that they have been told by Manning that Miers will in fact show up on Thursday, if only to assert executive privilege.
The Boston Globe and Washington Times have more on the back-and-forth. and
So good-bye earmarks, hello Congressman as lobbyists? The Los Angeles Times, via FOIA requests, obtained letters members of Congress wrote specific agencies that essentially asked for earmark-like spending requests. "Federal agencies must fund earmarks lawmakers insert into bills. With the earmarks [technically] eliminated, the agencies were free this year to set their own spending priorities. So, lawmakers touted their own requests to influence those decisions."
Is sex and politics back? The L.A. press corps was in full feeding-frenzy mode with L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at his first news conference since admitting his affair with a local TV reporter. And now there's this: Sen. David Vitter (R-La.) apologized yesterday for his phone number appearing on the D.C. Madam’s phone list. "This was a very serious sin in my past for which I am, of course, completely responsible," Vitter, 46, said in a statement, which his spokesman, Joel DiGrado, confirmed to the
Associated Press. "Several years ago, I asked for and received forgiveness from God and my wife in confession and marriage counseling," Vitter continued. "Out of respect for my family, I will keep my discussion of the matter there -- with God and them. But I certainly offer my deep and sincere apologies to all I have disappointed and let down in any way."
The Politico digs up this old quote from Vitter’s wife. “In 2000, Vitter was included in a Newhouse News Service story about the strain of congressional careers on families. His wife, Wendy, was asked by the Newhouse reporter: If her husband were as unfaithful as Livingston or former President Bill Clinton, would she be as forgiving as Hillary Rodham Clinton? ‘I’m a lot more like Lorena Bobbitt than Hillary,’ Wendy Vitter told Newhouse News. ‘If he does something like that, I’m walking away with one thing, and it’s not alimony, trust me.’”
And the New York Daily News notes that Vitter is the southern regional chair of Giuliani's campaign.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Democrats involved with the two Hill investigations into the firing of the federal prosecutors are insisting that former White House aides Sara Taylor and Harriet Miers show up as requested this week at hearings -- regardless of today's claim of executive privilege.Their arguments can be summarized like this:
-- The subpoena requires two things: 1) to show up and 2) to testify. Invoking privilege does not excuse a subpoenaed witness from appearing. The House Judiciary is telling Miers to show up no matter what, and they are proceeding as if she will. She is due before House Judiciary Committee on Thursday. Taylor was summoned to appear Wednesday before the Senate committee.
-- Privilege would be properly invoked when the witness was asked specific questions during testimony.
-- The White House is motivated by a desire avoid a picture of Taylor and Miers before the committee, being sworn in and invoking privilege.
-- The documents requested do not fit into a claim of executive privilege, which pertain to the president's decision-making process. "However, numerous witnesses before both House and Senate Committees have testified that the President did not decide which U.S. Attorneys should be fired," the Senate committee asserts.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a conference call with reporters this afternoon,
Edwards national campaign manager David Bonior previewed the three-day, eight-state, 12-city poverty tour -- the "Road to One America" tour -- that Edwards will embark on next week. The goal, Bonior said, is to highlight the 37 million Americans living in poverty. "They are not just statistics. They are human beings with hopes and aspirations."
Edwards will also talk about the solutions to poverty (better health care, housing, education, union rights, etc). And the tour will also be a challenge to the press and other political leaders, who Bonior says are not focusing on poverty as they should. "We still have one in eight living poverty," he emphasized.
Asked about the tour's political goals, Bonior replied that it epitomizes what Edwards is about, where he came from, and what has become a huge part of his life.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Here is reaction to the Cindy Sheehan
pledge/threat to run as an independent against Speaker
Nancy Pelosi if Pelosi does not initiate impeachment proceedings in the House. From a Pelosi spokesperson:
"Speaker Pelosi has said repeatedly her focus is on ending the war in Iraq. She believes that the best way to support our troops in Iraq is to bring them home safely and soon. July will be a month of action in Congress to end the war, including a vote to redeploy our troops by next spring."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Ken Strickland
