August 2007 - Posts
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Dodd and became the first presidential hopeful to sign the early state pledge we reported on earlier.
DODD: "I believe that Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada offer a cross section of America and allow for voters to probe the experience and vision of candidates in a meaningful way. In this year, where the national media focus seems to be on celebrity and bank accounts, the role of these states is more important than ever. I am committed to the DNC nominating calendar and preserving the first in the nation status of Iowa and New Hampshire."
*** UPDATE *** BIDEN SIGNS PLEDGE: Biden Campaign Manager Luis Navarro: "It is time to end all the maneuvering around the dates of the early primaries and caucuses. We intend not only to sign the pledge, but to honor our pledge to Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina to respect their primacy to the process. They played by the rules of the DNC. We respect those rules. The public despises this kind of maneuvering for political advantage. If the Republicans want to play this way, let them. But we will not be a party to it."
*** UPDATE 2 *** OBAMA, EDWARDS AND RICHARDSON ALSO SIGN PLEDGE: Obama, Edwards and Richardson have also agreed to sign the pledge. This puts pressure on Clinton now to say whether she will campaign in Florida and Michigan for defying the DNC and moving up inside the Feb. 5 window. ***UPDATE 3*** CLINTON SIGNS PLEDGE
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina Democratic Parties have joined together to ask the presidential candidates to sign a pledge that they will “not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.” Earlier today, we reported that DNC Chairman Howard Dean sent a letter urging the candidates to abide by the calendar.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Virginia Senator John Warner (R) announced today he will not seek re-election next year.
Some potential candidates who will run for his post: former Gov. Mark Warner (D), Rep. Tom Davis (R) and one-time presidential hopeful and former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R).
From NBC's Mike ViqueiraMark your calendars... Gen.
David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
Ryan Crocker will testify Monday, Sept. 10th at 12:30 pm before a joint hearing of the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services Committee.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Tony Snow and President Bush made it official that Snow will be stepping down Sept. 14th. Dana Perino will replace him.
“I sadly accept his desire to leave the White House,” Bush told reporters at today’s White House Press Briefing. “It’s been a joy to watch him spar with you.” Bush went on to call Snow “smart,” “capable” and witty and then told Snow, “I accept. I love you, and I wish you all the best.”
Snow said his decision is solely based on money and has nothing to do with his battle with cancer. “I ran outta money,” Snow said. “There’s a lot of people sitting there at home saying, ‘Well whaddya mean, you make all this money.’ Well I made more money in my previous career.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroDemocratic fund-raiser
Norman Hsu has turned himself into police in California for a 15-year-old outstanding warrant. The
Los Angeles Times, which first reported that Hsu was a fugitive, reports: “Prosecutors in California said Hsu disappeared in 1992 after pleading no contest and agreeing to serve up to three years in prison for defrauding investors in a Ponzi scheme.”
San Mateo Sheriff's booking photo of Norman Hsu.
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Hsu, who a judge ordered handcuffed, faces a grand theft charge. He is being held on $2 million bond. A bail hearing is scheduled for Sept. 5th, where a judge may consider reducing his bail to $1 million.
Hsu signed on to be a
Clinton “HillRaiser,” a group of individuals who pledged to raise at least $100,000 for the New York senator’s presidential run. He has helped raise or donate money for many Democrats, including Clinton (during her presidential run),
Obama (during his 2004 U.S. Senate run) and New York Gov.
Eliot Spitzer.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Per the Atlantic’s Ambinder, DNC Chairman Howard Dean sent a “strongly worded letter,” urging candidates to abide by the DNC’s nominating selection process calendar. This comes a day after Michigan dared the DNC by moving its primary up to Jan. 15. The DNC leveled heavy sanctions against Florida on Saturday for moving its primary up to Jan. 29th, before the allowed Feb. 5th window.
"My goal as Chairman, and our objective as a Party,” Dean writes, “is to structure a nominating process that adheres to rules that are clear, straightforward and published. The vast majority of states have complied with these rules.”
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell
NBC News has learned that White House Press Secretary Tony Snow will step down Sept. 14 as the president's chief spokesman and the public face of the White House. Dana Perino is expected to replace him.
He is expected to make his announcement during today's on-camera White House briefing at 12:45pm. President Bush is expected to make a statement at the briefing. Snow formally informed the president yesterday.
Snow says his departure is based on family finances. "If I had the dough I'd stay 'til the bitter end,” Snow told NBC News. As an assistant to the President, Snow earns the highest-level salary among White House officials at $168,000 a year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Lauren Appelbaum
After three months of "testing the waters" and testing the patience of some Republican supporters, Fred Dalton Thompson will seek his party's nomination.
This afternoon in a conference call with invited supporters and participants, Thompson political director Randy Enwright explained the next steps for the "Friends of Fred Thompson Committee."
Taking a page from the Hillary Clinton playbook, the formal announcement will debut on a webcast on Thursday, September 6. It will be followed by a swing through key states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And it will conclude with a "Welcome Home" in Lawrenceburg, TN on the 15th.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new ONE campaign poll of likely GOP Iowa caucus-goers, conducted by Peter D. Hart Research Associates (D) and McLaughlin & Associates (R), has Romney leading at 35%, Giuliani at 12%, and Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee tied at 11%.
Quick takes here: Romney has a comfortable lead, and Huckabee has a nice little bounce coming after his second-place finish in the Ames straw poll.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The AP's Ron Fournier writes that the presidential nominating contests may be far from over. "John Kerry's presidential bid was dead. If you didn't know that in September 2003, all you had to do was ask almost any pundit, politicians or political writer. We were wrong. Kerry picked up a key endorsement, poured his own money into the race and took advantage of the fact that Democratic front-runner Howard Dean's campaign had quietly peaked in the summer of 2003."
"We may be wrong again. The same folks who buried John Kerry months before he won the 2004 Democratic nomination are jumping the gun for 2008."
"The consensus in Washington is that Sen. John McCain's presidential dreams are dead and the only Republicans with a shot at the nomination are former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Conventional wisdom also suggests that the Democratic nomination is Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's to lose, and that her only serious rivals are Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and, perhaps, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina."
"Then along comes a day like Wednesday that rubs history in our faces, reminding the so-called experts how much the political landscape can change before the first votes are cast in Iowa: Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, a longshot candidate for the Democratic nomination, picked up the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters."
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Doug Adams
NBC News confirms an earlier report by the Politico that GOP Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow whether he intends to run for re-election, at 2:00 pm ET on the campus of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.
Warner is believed by politcial leaders in both parties to announce tomorrow that he will NOT run for another term. Warner, 80, has raised just $72,000 since the 2006 elections and only $500 in the first quarter of this year -- not exactly the actions of a man preparing to run in what is shaping up as a bad year for Republicans. And if Warner decides to retire, it is by no means a lock that Republcians would retain the seat. Several well-known candidates from both parties are expected to jump into the race.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Hours after the 700,000-member International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers endorsed
Clinton, the United Brotherhood of Carpenters announced it is endorsing
Edwards. The 520,000-member union did not endorse anyone in the 2004 presidential race.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Clinton said today she was "surprised by the news" that Clinton fund-raiser Norman Hsu has an outstanding arrest warrant out for him, and added that after verifying the information, her campaign "returned his money."
“We will continue to analyze all contributions and take action if that's warranted,” Clinton said during a joint press conference with New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer to discuss the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, known as SCHIP. “And I wish Mr. Hsu well in dealing with the problems he's confronting.”
VIDEO: NBC's Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the Democrat's fugitive donor.A reporter pressed on, asking Clinton about problems during her husband’s presidency with donors like Johnny Chung. "I don't think it's analogous at all," Clinton replied, "I think we take these one by one as they come up. When you have as many contributors as I'm fortunate enough to have, we do the very best job we can based on the information available to us to make appropriate vetting decisions and this one was a big surprise to everybody."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The McCain campaign today released a high-quality, 12-minute video that highlights McCain’s military service and touts his “maverick spirit” with a “rebellious streak.” It opens with McCain giving his name, rank, and officer number as a young prisoner of war in Vietnam being questioned by a foreign interviewer. The video marks a shift in his campaign to re-brand the one-time front-runner with an old theme -- the one that worked so well for him in 2000.
“I wouldn’t call it a re-branding because this has always been his brand,” said Brian Rogers, a campaign spokesman. “But certainly we view September as a critical month for the senator and our campaign. And this is the opening salvo in the way forward for our campaign.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
Clinton, per her campaign, has just picked up her second labor union endorsement this week -- from the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers. The endorsement comes a few days after some of the Democratic presidential candidates (including Clinton, Edwards, and Kucinich) spoke to the union. The IAM also endorsed Huckabee in the GOP race.
Earlier this week, Clinton also won the United Transportation Union's endorsement.
From Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
*** It’s Been A LONG Month…: August is typically a month when many unwind, go on vacation, or head to the nearest back-to-school sale, all to prepare for the busy fall ahead. But for those who have been participating in or covering this expedited presidential race, this month has been jam-packed with news that could influence the sprint -- but aren’t we already sprinting? -- that begins after Labor Day. On the Democratic side, the month began with Obama’s speech on terrorism (and Pakistan), which produced the first real shoot-out among most of the Dem candidates. Then came Clinton’s statement at YearlyKos that she wouldn’t refuse lobbyist contributions. Next was Richardson’s response at a gay-rights forum, where he said that homosexuality is a choice. Then came the debate in Des Moines, where many of these things were rehashed and Obama proved he could take a punch. And then there was Edwards’ aggressive re-launch in New Hampshire.
*** More August News: On the GOP side, the month featured Romney’s expected win in Ames, Huckabee’s surprise second-place finish there, and Tommy Thompson’s exit. Then there were the staff departures for the other (and better-polling) Thompson, as well as the growing complaints why his campaign was waiting so long to actually begin. Also, we saw Romney and Fred gang up on Giuliani regarding immigration and guns. And the news over at the White House and Congress included Rove’s and Gonzales’ announced departures, plus the recent scandal involving Sen. Larry Craig. Whew. If all of these things happened in August, what does the fall -- and then the nominating contests in the winter -- have in store for us?
*** If The Hsu Fits…: Another story that broke during the last few days of the month was the mysterious case of Clinton bundler Norman Hsu (who has donated to other Democrats and Democratic causes). As we’ve noted earlier, the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday reported on his links to a family of modest means who had donated tens of thousands of dollars to Clinton since 2005. Then the Los Angeles Times wrote that Mr. Hsu has been a fugitive for 15 years after pleading no contest to grand theft. Today, the papers note that the Clinton campaign -- after earlier refusing to do so -- is donating to charity the $23,000 Hsu has given the campaign and reviewing thousands more he had raised. Clinton and her campaign are the last folks who would ever back down from something. But with Edwards and Obama hitting her on accepting money from federal lobbyists and past press reports of another problematic donor -- Vinod Gupta -- the campaign’s decision to return his money is a no-brainer. But what does it do with the money he’s bundled?
*** The Buzzards Are Circling: Yesterday, GOP Sens. John McCain -- who is running for president -- and Norm Coleman -- who will be in a tough contest for re-election next year -- called for the embattled Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, to resign. In addition, Senate GOP leaders yesterday announced that Craig had complied with their request to step down from his key committee assignments. We’ve seen this process play out before, and there are essentially three outcomes. One, Craig resigns pretty quickly (a la Mark Foley). Two, he waits as long as possible before stepping down (Bob Ney, Alberto Gonzales). Or three, he rides out the storm as the press turns to other stories (William Jefferson, David Vitter).
*** On The Trail: Biden, in Iowa, participates in the SEIU's Walk-A-Day program; Edwards speaks at a Democratic county party BBQ in South Carolina; McCain is in Arizona; Richardson raises money in Nevada; Romney does the same in North Carolina; and actress Kathleen Turner campaigns for Obama in South Carolina.
*** And A Note: Given the need to take our final breather this August, the morning version of First Read will not publish tomorrow, although we’ll have updated posts throughout the day. The next issue of the morning version will return bright and early Tuesday, September 4. Have a happy and safe Labor Day weekend.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 4 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 51 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 68 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 79 days
Countdown to Iowa: 136 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 141 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 158 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 432 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 509 days
A new Time magazine poll of Iowa has Edwards leading at 29%, followed by Clinton at 24%, Obama at 22%, and Richardson at 11%. “For Edwards, the poll has some less welcome news as well. So far, at least, his attempts to portray himself as the real change agent in the race — the one who wants to slam the door on lobbyists and other ‘Washington insiders’ — isn't paying off. Obama beats him by 35% to 25% on the question of who ‘will take on special interests in Washington.’ (Clinton trailed with 19%.) Iowa Democrats seem to like Edwards more for who he is than for what he says; they call him the ‘most likable’ and the one who best understands their concerns, but his toss-out-the-insiders message hasn't stuck.”
CLINTON: “Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign said yesterday that it would give to charity $23,000 it had received from a prominent Democratic donor, and review thousands of dollars more that he had raised, after learning that the authorities in California had a warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 fraud case,” the New York Times says. “The travails of Mr. Hsu have proved an embarrassment for the Clinton campaign, which has strived to project an image of rectitude in its fund-raising and to dispel any lingering shadows of past episodes of tainted contributions.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Times examines the FairTax revolution -- the push for a national retail sales tax -- “that has taken hold of the 2008 Republican presidential debate and turned from outcast to kingmaker, including aiding presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee's surprise second-place showing in this month's influential Iowa Republican presidential straw poll. Of the major candidates on the Republican side six, including all-but-announced candidate Fred Thompson, have said they are either active supporters or would at least be willing to sign a FairTax bill if it reached their desks as president.”
GIULIANI: Giuliani tapped former New York fire chief Howard Safir to lead a coalition of “law enforcement and emergency-responders backing his campaign for president.”
ROMNEY: The Romney campaign is running a new TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire. It goes: "An Olympics hit by scandal and deficits, he rescued them. He turned around dozens of companies and became a business legend. A state losing jobs, with huge deficits, Governor Mitt Romney turned it around – cutting spending, instead of raising taxes. At every step, he's met extraordinary challenges. Mitt Romney – the energy and experience to turn around Washington."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times:”The White House is growing more confident that it can beat back efforts by Congressional Democrats to shift course in Iraq, a significant turnabout from two months ago, when a string of Republican defections had administration officials worried that President Bush’s troop buildup was in serious danger on Capitol Hill. Current and former administration officials say they realize that the September battle over the troop buildup will be difficult. But they also say the president’s hand is stronger now than it was in early July, when Republican senators like Pete V. Domenici of New Mexico and Richard G. Lugar of Indiana publicly called for a change of course.”
“Gov. Jennifer Granholm is convinced that the state House today will approve legislation, already passed by the Senate, to hold a statewide presidential primary Jan. 15 -- even though the move could put the state on a collision course with the national parties,” the Detroit News reports.
Edwards' campaign manager David Bonior, a Michigan native, told the Boston Globe: "I do believe there is a role for a larger state in this process whether that be Florida or wherever. But this campaign is focused on the four early states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina because that is where the issues matter most."
Per the Washington Times, “The top 2008 Democratic presidential candidates will likely campaign for the Jan. 29 Florida primary, and a potential earlier primary in Michigan, in defiance of the party's threat to strip the states of their convention delegates, Democratic strategists said yesterday.”
GOP Sens. John McCain and Norm Coleman called for Craig to resign yesterday. "My opinion is that when you plead guilty to a crime you shouldn't serve," McCain told CNN. "That's not a moral stand, 'holier than thou,' just a factual situation." And Coleman said in a radio interview: "If I was making the decision, I'd resign. I'd tell him to resign. I think this is one where you've pled guilty, you've had time to think about it.”
The Washington Post also notes that “Senate GOP leaders said that Craig ‘agreed to comply’ with their request that he step down as the ranking Republican on the Veterans' Affairs Committee and two subcommittees while the ethics committee assesses his case. The move, they said, was for ‘the good of the Senate.’ The intensity of the Republican leaders' assault on one of their own was stunning, if for no other reason than its unusual -- un-senatorial -- nature. Several ethics lawyers and experts could not provide an example in the past two decades of one senator calling for the ethics committee to investigate a colleague.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
There was a broad range of reactions from the presidential candidates. We have statements from Giuliani, Dodd, Edwards, McCain, and Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. We also have a five-and-a-half-minute video from Obama entitled, “Rebuilding New Orleans, Two Years Later.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
With former President Jimmy Carter by his side, Edwards visited Georgia Southwestern State University to discuss his vision for America and his plans to build One America. Edwards began his speech with an attack on Bush's request for more money to fund the surge in Iraq. Using his fingers to make quote marks while saying the word "surge," Edwards dismissed the idea as a good plan.
"The Congress will be coming back next week, and I think the American people have seen enough excuses," Edwards said. "They don't want excuses anymore. They want to see this war come to an end. They want to see it brought to an end. What the Congress should do when they come back next week is make it absolutely clear, no timetable, no funding. And there should be no further excuses. The Congress needs to stand their ground. They had a mandate from the American people in the election in November in 2006 and they need to meet that mandate."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
America Coming Together, a political action committee credited with doing much of the grassroots organization and get-out-the-vote efforts for Democrats in 2004, was hit with a $775,000 fine by the Federal Election Commission for violating federal election law during the 2004 campaign election cycle.
The FEC leveled its third-largest fine in history against George Soros-backed ACT, “a federal political action committee (PAC) that also has a non-federal account registered under section 527 of the Internal Revenue Code, agreed to pay $775,000 to settle charges that it used funds raised outside federal limits and source prohibitions to pay for expenses that should have been paid with funds raised within the federal contribution limits and prohibitions,” according to the FEC’s Web site.
Also, the FEC “uncovered no evidence of coordination between” ACT and the Democratic National Committee, 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry.
From NBC’s Kristin Wilson
“Polls don't mean spit” was the oft-repeated mantra today in DC by the president of the International Association of Firefighters and Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Chris Dodd.
According to Dodd, and IAFF president Harold Shaitberger, however, the "very extensive surveys we've conducted and phone contacts with voters in these states" (hey, isn't that called "polling?") in Iowa and New Hampshire do mean, ummm, spit.
Shaitberger said voters are apparently still undecided in the early primary and caucus states, and will make their decisions not in August, which is filled with "more theater, more popularity contests," but rather in December and January, when "they get serious about their decision."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In another sign the presidential selection process may be headed for 2007, Wyoming Republicans voted to move their conventions to Jan. 5, leapfrogging Iowa and New Hampshire.
"We're first in the nation," State party County Convention Coordinator Tom Sansonetti told the AP. "At least for the next couple, three weeks until New Hampshire and Iowa move, which I expect they will."
Iowa and New Hampshire are currently scheduled for Jan. 14 and Jan. 22, respectively. But that is expected to change, since South Carolina moved its Republican primary to Jan. 19. We reported earlier, though, that the Republican National Committee is vowing to take tough action against states like Florida, South Carolina, New Hampshire and Michigan for moving its primary dates up. The Democratic National Committee levied the heavy sanction of stripping Florida of its delegates Saturday -- if within 30 days Florida doesn’t agree to move its primary date back by at least a week.
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell
Senior officials tell NBC News it is unlikely President Bush will be ready to nominate a choice for attorney general before the president leaves for the APEC Summit next week. It appears there is not sufficient time on Thursday and Friday for the president to complete interviews with candidates and be ready for an announcement, advisors said.
Officials said they now "have more names in the mix than when we started” and that consultations with members of Congress and others outside government have contributed to the process. They refused to discuss specific names, but advisors suggest that Paul Clement, George Terwilliger and Larry Silberman are among those being considered.
Advisors said they believe the speculation about Michael Chertoff has run its course, and he is not in the running to succeed Gonzales. "It gets unfair to Mike," one advisor said.
The positive reaction to Clement as acting attorney general takes some pressure off the timing, advisors said.
From NBC’s Ken Strickland
Might the Republican leadership remove embattled Sen. Larry Craig from committee assignments or request that he steps down? The leadership has not made plans to take those steps, but a GOP aide says, “We reserve that right.” Craig is a member of the powerful appropriations committee.
Also, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell called Craig yesterday prior to releasing the statement from the GOP Leadership calling for an ethics investigation. McConnell's office wouldn't characterize the call other than to say they were giving Craig a heads-up on the GOP position. In that statement, the leadership said it will be "examining other aspects of the case to determine if additional action is required."
Also note that while senators' press offices often spam Capitol Hill reporters with press releases from the mundane to the sublime, we've seen nothing so far from anyone except the previously mentioned statement from the GOP leadership yesterday.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The liberal, anti-war group MoveOn.org will go up with an ad by the end of this week in Democratic Rep. Brian Baird’s district in Washington state, accusing him of a “flip-flop” on the Iraq war.
Baird, along with Sens. Clinton and Carl Levin, recently said the troop surge in Iraq is showing signs of progress -- at least in Al-Anbar province. Baird had voted against the Iraq military action in 2003.
“MoveOn.org Political Action Committee is sponsoring the ad to call attention to the congressman’s decision to go against the views of his constituents, and his previous voting record, to support President Bush’s failed policy in Iraq,” the group said in an e-mailed statement.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Romney campaign is the latest to try and appeal to younger viewers with a gimmicky, “Create Your Own Ad!” push. “Yes, we’re serious,” the campaign boasts on the edit-it-yourself Web site JumpCut.com. The ad can be on “Mitt’s biography, his family, his record as Governor, or his agenda for a stronger America. In fact, your ad can have practically any theme you choose as long you support the campaign creatively and responsibly.”
The campaign provides photos, video and music -- though you can use your own. You just have to “cut, splice and edit to your heart’s content.” The deadline is Sept. 17. The campaign also provides its most recent ad as an example. Under the handle “govmittromney,” Romney’s campaign writes: “Here's one of our television ads, ‘Tested, Proven.’ Think you can do better? Just click the green ‘Edit’ button on this video (or any of the dozens of clips we've provided) and show us what you can do!” Here are some Romney videos on the site.
From Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
*** “I Am Not Gay”: While GOP Sen. Larry Craig’s press conference yesterday wasn’t as shocking and bizarre as Jim McGreevey’s was a few years ago, it was quite a spectacle. And it raised more questions than answers, the chief one among them: Why would a local newspaper investigation force a three-term US senator to plead guilty to disorderly conduct regarding lewd behavior in a men’s restroom? Republicans don’t seem to be buying the defense, and before Craig’s presser, the Senate GOP leadership released a statement recommending that the Senate Ethics Committee look into the incident. Of course, GOP Sen. David Vitter’s recent press conference about his links to a DC madam’s phone list was just as big of a spectacle -- and Vitter (with his wife’s help) seems to have survived that incident, at least for now. But then again, being linked to a DC madam doesn’t seem to compare to playing footsie with a plainclothes police officer in a men’s bathroom stall. We’re not the first to say this, but the biggest beneficiary to all of this has been Alberto Gonzales. Did he pick a great week to finally resign, or what?
*** Katrina, Before And After: Heading into the summer of 2005, the Bush White House was suffering its first true political defeat -- over Social Security -- and the situation in Iraq kept getting worse and worse. But few at that point envisioned that the White House and GOP were in danger of losing control of Congress. In the July 2005 NBC/WSJ poll, Bush’s approval rating stood at 46% (almost where it was before he won re-election), and his fav/unfav was 47%-43%. Then came Hurricane Katrina and the federal government’s widely criticized response to it. In the next NBC/WSJ survey, Bush’s plummeted to 40%, then his lowest rating in the poll, and his fav/unfav numbers essentially flipped. Katrina -- which slammed into the Gulf Coast exactly two years ago today -- is hardly the sole explanation for the White House’s current woes (and even lower poll numbers). But it served as the point at which the wheels started to come off.
*** Not The Big Easy: President Bush, whose approval rating now stands at 31% in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, commemorates Katrina’s second anniversary with a visit to the Gulf Coast. He begins the day with a stop at a New Orleans charter school, where he participates in a moment of silence and then makes a statement on the city’s recovery efforts. He then heads to Mississippi, where he makes another statement. None of the presidential candidates will be joining Bush in New Orleans, but many of them (Clinton, Edwards, Huckabee, Hunter, and Obama) were there in the last few days.
*** Its Downballot Impact: But Katrina didn’t only influence Bush’s political standing. Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D), whose response to the hurricane was just as widely condemned as Bush’s, isn’t running for re-election this year -- and Republican Bobby Jindal seems a safe bet to claim that seat. Other Gulf Coast governors, however, have seen their political fortunes rise, simply because their states didn’t look as bad as Louisiana did. Alabama Gov. Bob Riley (R), stung in 2003 by a failed tax increase, cruised to re-election last year. And Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), who took a hit before Katrina for working to eliminate Medicaid benefits for thousands of poor state residents, is now in a strong position to win re-election this year, although a recent Bloomberg News article alleging that Barbour’s friends and family financially benefited from the federal reconstruction aid there might complicate things.
*** Labor Gains: A day after Clinton won the endorsement of the United Transportation Union, Dodd picks up his biggest prize so far -- and perhaps his best piece of news since he launched his presidential bid -- when the International Association of Fire Fighters endorses him today at a press conference in DC. The IAFF, of course, is the sole major union that backed John Kerry before he went on to win in Iowa in 2004 (and it also has been the group hammering Giuliani on his 9/11 record). But while Kerry was overshadowed by Dean at this point in the ’04 race, he was the initial Democratic front-runner and was still registering in double digits in national polls. That’s not the case for Dodd. But, as the Hartford Courant’s Lightman puts it, the endorsement is certainly “an important boost to his underdog campaign.”
*** Billary Returns: The Clinton campaign just issued a press release noting that Clintons -- both Bill and Hillary -- will campaign together over the Labor Day weekend. On Sunday, they hit New Hampshire and then travel to Iowa on Monday.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden campaigns in Iowa; Edwards, in Georgia, gives a speech that his campaign says will touch on all the issues upon which he has built his campaign (poverty, health care, global warming); McCain raises money in California and Arizona; and Romney hits two fundraisers in Georgia.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 5 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 52 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 69 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 80 days
Countdown to Iowa: 137 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 159 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 433 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 510 days
The New Orleans Times-Picayune has a special Katrina: Two Years Later issue with several stories looking back. The front page has a large “Thank You!” There is an installment called “Touched By an Angel” with vignettes from people who were helped by others’ kindness.
The AP’s Fournier writes that New Orleans is every Americans’ tragedy. “What happened to this historic city two years ago is more than the obvious cautionary tale of what might befall your community after a natural disaster or a terrorist strike. It's also a sad reflection of what's happening now - today, in your hometown and across an anxious and ailing nation. Inadequate health care. A housing crisis. Crumbling infrastructure. Racial division. Poor schools. Rising crime. And at the core of these and other problems threatening our way of life: a pernicious failure of leadership.”
The Los Angeles Times has a different take. “Today, by accident and by necessity, this city is awash in ideas: the new and the ambitious, the au courant and avant-garde, the idealistic and the slightly nutty. The New Orleans public education system, long considered one of most ineffective in the nation, has been revitalized with a grand experiment in charter schools; more than half of the city's public campuses are charters, the highest percentage of any major metropolis.”
CLINTON: The New York senator won the first endorsement by a national union in the 2008 campaign from the 125,000-member United Transportation Union.
The Los Angeles Times follows up on yesterday’s Wall Street Journal article about Clinton fundraiser Norman Hsu (who has also donated to Biden, Obama, and other Democrats over the years). “For the last 15 years, California authorities have been trying to figure out what happened to a businessman named Norman Hsu, who pleaded no contest to grand theft, agreed to serve up to three years in prison and then seemed to vanish… Since 2004, one Norman Hsu has been carving out a prominent place of honor among Democratic fundraisers. He has funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions into party coffers, much of it earmarked for presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York… Hsu [also] has focused on delivering hefty contributions from citizens who live modest lives and are neophytes in the world of campaign giving.”
Said Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson in the article: "During Mr. Hsu's many years of active participation in the political process, there has been no question about his integrity or his commitment to playing by the rules, and we have absolutely no reason to call his contributions into question or to return them."
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: He said No Child Left Behind should be revised “to let states negotiate how they meet the education law's requirements,” the Des Moines Register reports. "Where it failed was not giving flexibility to the states," Brownback said.
HUCKABEE: The former Arkansas governor has taken some implicit shots at Romney, but he was more direct in an interview with CBN’s Brody. “‘I’m going to accept that his position (on the life issue) now is a position he currently and indeed does hold but nobody can deny that it’s not the position that he had held. He’s the first to admit that and when you add to that positions that he’s held on other topics like the second amendment and even the Bush tax cuts, on same sex relationships and marriage and other things, that’s what I think causes people to say how many different changes of position can one have during an adult’s lifespan as a politician and then be confidant that that person is going to have another epiphany at some point in the future.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe front-pages all of the scandals that are “putting campaigns to test.” The paper also front-pages its graphic with mug shots of Sen. Larry Craig (Romney’s former Idaho chairman and Senate co-liaison), Thomas Ravenel (former Giuliani South Carolina co-chairman), and Bob Allen (former McCain Florida chairman).
While much of the focus has been on the Democratic National Committee and its sanctions on Florida (and possibly Michigan) for moving up their primaries, the Republican National Committee may take similar steps against Florida, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. They “face sanctions for moving their contests to before Feb. 5. Two other early nominating states, Iowa and Nevada, will escape Republican sanctions because they hold nonbinding caucuses, not primaries.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post front-pages that Bush “plans to ask Congress next month for up to $50 billion in additional funding for the war in Iraq, a White House official said yesterday, a move that appears to reflect increasing administration confidence that it can fend off congressional calls for a rapid drawdown of U.S. forces.” More: “The request -- which would come on top of about $460 billion in the fiscal 2008 defense budget and $147 billion in a pending supplemental bill to fund the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq -- is expected to be announced after congressional hearings scheduled for mid-September featuring the two top U.S. officials in Iraq.”
In its coverage of the president’s Iraq speech yesterday, the New York Times notes that Bush said “that an American withdrawal from Iraq would unsettle the entire Middle East, create a haven for Al Qaeda and embolden a belligerent Iran. He said Tehran’s nuclear programs threatened to put ‘a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust.’”
“Biden chastised the president for continuing to tie the war in Iraq directly to the struggle against the al-Qaida terrorists that attacked the United States in September 2001,” the Quad City Times reports. “’Today, the president argued we have to stay in Iraq to fight extremists. But the fact is his misguided and mismanaged war has fueled extremists in Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond.’”
The Washington Post covers the White House search for a successor to Gonzales. “Among those who are said to be under serious consideration are Solicitor General Paul D. Clement, whom Bush picked to serve as acting attorney general …; George J. Terwilliger III, a former deputy attorney general; former solicitor general Theodore B. Olson; Michael B. Mukasey, former chief judge of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York; and Laurence H. Silberman, a senior judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.”
The New York Times says that Gonzales’ resignation “does not mean an end to several investigations into his actions and truthfulness during his tenure at the Justice Department, with Congressional Democrats promising on Tuesday to press their inquiries.”
In a front-page article, the New York Times writes, “Just when Republicans thought things could not get any worse, Senator Larry E. Craig of Idaho confirmed that he had pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges of disorderly conduct after an undercover police officer accused him of soliciting sex in June in a Minneapolis airport restroom… It was a bizarre spectacle, and only the latest in a string of accusations of sexual foibles and financial misdeeds that have landed Republicans in the political equivalent of purgatory, the realm of late-night comic television.”
The Washington Post’s Milbank adds, “From the opening line of his statement yesterday, Sen. Larry Craig was in trouble. ‘Thank you all very much for coming out today,’ he began. ‘Coming out’ was perhaps not the best phrase for a guy who had pleaded guilty to some rather un-senatorial conduct in an airport men's room -- and now stands accused in his home-state paper of a homosexual encounter in Union Station.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a press conference from Idaho, embattled Sen. Larry Craig (R) apologized for bringing a cloud over his family and his state -- but not for what happened at that Minneapolis airport. "I did nothing wrong at the Minneapolis airport," he said, adding it was a "lapse in judgment" to plead guilty for committing a lewd act in a men's bathroom.
VIDEO: Sen. Larry Craig's Boise, Idaho statement.
He said pleading guilty was an overreaction to a monthslong investigation by the local Idaho Statesman into his sex life. "I am not gay. I have never been gay."
He went on to say, "I believe I can still be an effective leader for our state," and stated he would keep his plans to announce whether he will seek re-election next month.
DOCUMENTS: Police Report; Petition to enter guilty plea; Complaint against Craig; Register of Actions
From NBC’s Ken Strickland
Senate Republican leadership is recommending an ethics committee investigation into embattled Idaho GOP Sen. Larry Craig.
Here’s the statement from Republican leaders
Mitch McConnell,
Trent Lott,
Jon Kyl,
Kay Bailey Hutchison and
John Ensign “on the incident involving Senator Larry Craig:”
"Late yesterday we became aware of the incident involving Senator Larry Craig and his subsequent admission of guilt in a Minnesota court. This is a serious matter. Due to the reported and disputed circumstances, and the legal resolution of this serious case, we will recommend that Senator Craig's incident be reported to the Senate Ethics Committee for its review. In the meantime, Leadership is examining other aspects of the case to determine if additional action is required."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Biden urged caution today with regard to President Bush’s rhetoric in the run-up to the September Iraq report from Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker. The president spoke today to the American Legion and warned that "Our allies in the region would be under greater siege" if troops were pulled too soon.
“We’re going to be hearing a lot about the surge over the next few weeks. But remember it’s purpose,” Biden said in a conference call with reporters. He added that the purpose was to buy the Iraqi government time to find a political solution, and that’s not happening, Biden said.
In President Bush's speech last week to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention, he compared Iraq to Vietnam, though “The lesson he apparently drew is that we didn’t stay in Vietnam long enough,” Biden said. “I don’t think most Americans read history the same way. I know I don’t.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
In his interview on CNBC's Kudlow & Company (which will air later this afternoon),
Mitt Romney had some sharp words for Sen.
Larry Craig, who had endorsed the former Massachusetts governor's presidential campaign and was his Idaho chairman. "Once again, we've found people in Washington have not lived up to the level of respect and dignity that we would expect for somebody that gets elected to a position of high influence. Very disappointing. He's no longer associated with my campaign, as you can imagine... I'm sorry to see that he has fallen short."
And Romney also included this jab at
Bill Clinton as he continued to talk about Craig: "I think it reminds us of
Mark Foley and Bill Clinton. I think it reminds us of the fact that people who are elected to public office continue to disappoint, and they somehow think that if they vote the right way on issues of significance or they can speak a good game, that we'll just forgive and forget. And the truth of the matter is, the most important thing we expect from elected--an elected official is a level of dignity and character that we can point to for our kids and our grandkids, and say, `Hey, someday I hope you grow up and you're someone like that person.' And we've seen disappointment in the White House, we've seen it in the Senate, we've seen it in Congress. And frankly, it's disgusting."
***UPDATE*** Below is the conversation regarding Craig and Clinton....
CONTINUED >>
Minneapolis-St. Paul Airport Police arrest-booking photo of Sen. Lary Craig, R-Idaho |
|
From NBC’s Jim PopkinAdditional documents released today by the Minneapolis airport police show that an "agitated"
Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) returned to the airport-police offices 11 days after his arrest and complained that he had been "drug down to this office" when arrested on June 11.
A statement by police officer Adam Snedker states that, on June 22, Craig knocked on the window of the police headquarters and complained that he had been "drug down to this office" and that he hadn't heard back from the police in over a week. Craig was asking for information to pass to his lawyer. Snedker writes: "To note, Craig appeared agitated and demeaning during my first contact with him even though I did my best to answer his questions."
Craig apparently told Officer Snedker that he had been handcuffed during the arrest. The arresting officer, however, states that "I did not handcuff Craig" even though he was under arrest. Read the full arrest report here.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a joint statement, Florida's 10 congressional Democrats said that they're firmly set to go ahead with their primary on January 29, despite the Democratic National Committee's vow that it will strip all of state party's delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention -- unless the Florida Democratic Party acts in the next 30 days to delay its nominating contest (in the form of a caucus).
"We cannot go along with anything but the state-run primary set for next January," the lawmakers said in the statement. "We strongly encourage all Democrats to vote for their preferred nominee in that primary, regardless of whatever penalties the DNC might enact."
But, in the last paragraph of the statement, the lawmakers did suggest that they're willing to reach some kind of compromise. "We hope that over the next few weeks, the DNC and its chairman will show a willingness to work with us to find an equitable solution that is acceptable to all."
See below for the entire release...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Lauren Appelbaum
Brownback and Huckabee were the only Republicans to participate in Lance Armstrong's LIVESTRONG Presidential Cancer Forum in Cedar Rapids, IA this morning. Both drew from personal experience with the disease. Brownback told of his father's and own cancer experiences and how they made each of them stronger. "It changed me, moved my purpose into glorifying God and serving others." Huckabee told of his wife’s successful struggle with spinal cancer and that his father died from melanoma. He also made his struggle with obesity a central facet of his call for greater public health, saying his doctor told him, “If I didn’t make a lifestyle change, I was entering my last decade of life.”
VIDEO: Mike Huckabee - 'I was scared into losing 110 pounds.'Brownback promised to not only to raise the budget for cancer research but to set a clear objective: "ending deaths by cancer in 10 years."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, an ethics watchdog group, is filing a complaint with the Senate Ethics Committee against Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID). The Committee is not compelled to act on complaints from outside groups.
CREW chief Melanie Sloan says, "If pleading guilty to charges stemming from an attempt to solicit an undercover officer in a public restroom is not conduct that reflects poorly upon the Senate, what is?"
***UPDATE***From NBC's Ken Strickland
While there is an expectation that the Senate Ethics Committee will at some point launch an inquiry into the matter involving Craig, the committee does not confirm that it has undertaken an investigation. The Democratic spokeswoman for the panel would only say the panel "can" investigate if it so chooses.
The spokeswoman also said under the rules within the Senate ethics manual, there are no circumstances that would automatically trigger an investigation; nor is there anything that requires a senator to report a plea deal or conviction to the committee. As for Craig, his Senate office says this week was a scheduled vacation for the senator, so there are no public events planned for him in Idaho at this point.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A quick scan of some of the more prominent conservative blogs shows that these bloggers aren't defending Idaho Sen. Larry Craig (R), after Roll Call reported yesterday that Craig was arrested in June for lewd behavior in a men's bathroom. In fact, there are plenty of calls for his resignation.
Hugh Hewitt: "I realize that I did not say this about Senator Vitter, but Craig's behavior is so reckless and repulsive that an immediate exit is required."
Erick Erickson at Red State: "I can only say he must resign. Then I must say I told you so. If we do not clean our own house, the voters will do it for us."
National Review Online's Jonah Goldberg: "I don't know what Larry Craig's been doing in men's rooms. And it sure sounds like I don't wanna know either. But, whatever the facts turn out to be, I just love his office's initial statement (calling it a 'he said/he said misunderstanding')."
Patrick Ruffini: "All that seems clear right now is that Senator Larry Craig will not be invited back for another six years in Washington, be that through resignation ..., retirement, or defeat at the ballot box next November (or in the primary).
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark MurrayPer a source close to the White House, ex-Deputy Attorney General
George J. Terwilliger III is "looking very good" to replace Alberto Gonzales. Former Solicitor General
Ted Olson and former appellate judge
Laurence Silberman are "also in the running." And Homeland Security Secretary
Michael Chertoff and former deputy Attorney General
Larry Thompson "are unlikely."
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
ARLINGTON, Va. -- While Brownback and Huckabee will be participating in Lance Armstrong's LIVESTRONG Presidential Cancer Forum later today, Romney discussed the same topic here this morning. In a discussion with Susan G. Komen for the Cure founder Nancy Brinker, he touted his record of near-universal private health-care coverage as governor of Massachusetts and pledged a renewed effort in the White House for cancer research.
"It costs more money for us as a society to have people without health insurance," Romney told about 1,000 mostly female audience members. "It's pretty clear that breast cancer and cancer in general are not getting their fair share" of attention from Washington. He pledged that allocation of public funds for cancer research would be decided on the basis of science and not political favors, saying, he will "blast the message out there and blast the people who are sending money out based on politics."
CONTINUED >>
From Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
*** Another Exit: Alberto Gonzales’ resignation yesterday is just another reminder that, one by one, the most controversial members of the Bush Administration and the GOP have left the building -- or are about to leave. DeLay. Hastert. Rove. Now Gonzales. And in 17 months, Bush and Cheney will join them. These departures have allowed Democrats to rejoice in news conferences and press releases. But the Democrats shouldn’t celebrate too much: They won last fall’s midterm elections in large part simply because they weren’t Republicans. Moreover, some of the Democratic presidential candidates -- most notably Hillary Clinton -- have campaigned against Bush, Cheney, and Rove as much as they’ve campaigned against their rivals for the Dem nomination. What happens when they don’t have these people to kick around anymore?
VIDEO: President Bush denounces the treatment of Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.
***
My Own Private Idaho? Another Republican who might be leaving soon is Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho. Yesterday,
Roll Call reported that Craig “was arrested in June at a Minnesota airport by a plainclothes police officer investigating lewd conduct complaints in a men’s public restroom,” and that he pleaded guilty to it (a misdemeanor disorderly conduct charge) in August. Craig then released a statement after the story broke. "At the time of this incident, I complained to the police that they were misconstruing my actions. I was not involved in any inappropriate conduct,” he said. "I should have had the advice of counsel in resolving this matter. In hindsight, I should not have pled guilty. I was trying to handle this matter myself quickly and expeditiously." Whatever the case, the question -- as the Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy said on TODAY -- is not whether he’ll run for re-election next year. It’s whether he decides to serve out the remainder of his term.
*** Between Iraq And A Hard Place: A day after Gonzales announced his resignation, after Roll Call reported on Craig’s arrest, and after several of the presidential candidates discussed cancer and Hurricane Katrina, the political news -- as it almost always does -- returns to Iraq. At 1:00 pm ET, Bush gives yet another speech on Iraq, this one from Reno, NV at the American Legion convention. (Will he once again invoke Vietnam?) Meanwhile, the anti-war group Americans Against Escalation in Iraq hosts about 60 town hall “Take A Stand” events tonight at which they’ll ask GOP congressmen if they will vote to change the course in Iraq. (Only one congressman, Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., decided to show up at one of these forums, and that forum occurred last week.) At the same time, anti-war groups will be holding more than 500 candlelight vigils across the country, including one at the Capitol reflecting pool in DC.
***
The Tour de Iowa Continues: It’s the GOP’s turn to participate at the LIVESTRONG presidential cancer forum in Grand Rapids, IA, moderated by Lance Armstrong and MSNBC’s Chris Matthews. Brownback (who is a cancer survivor) and Huckabee (whose wife had cancer) are the sole participants. But Romney addresses the Susan G. Komen For The Cure 10th Annual Mission Conference in Arlington, VA. (Brownback, Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani, Richardson, and Elizabeth Edwards are addressing the group via video.)
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden, in Davenport IA, holds a press conference in response to Bush’s Iraq speech; Edwards and Kucinich address the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which is meeting in Florida; McCain appears on The Tonight Show; Richardson campaigns in Iowa; and Romney (after his address in the DC area) attends a fundraiser in Atlanta.
*** And It’s Another Super Tuesday: For more on these events and issues -- and much, much more -- tune into MSNBC for the channel’s all-day political coverage. Anchoring Super Tuesday will be MSNBC’s Chris Jansing, MSNBC’s Tamron Hall, NBC’s Tim Russert (who will interview top advisers to the Clinton, Obama, and Edwards campaigns), NBC’s Natalie Morales, MSNBC’s Contessa Brewer, MSNBC’s Tucker Carlson, MSNBC’s David Shuster, and MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 6 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 53 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 70 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 81 days
Countdown to Iowa: 138 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 160 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 434 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 511 days
The New York Times’ analysis: “The announcement on Monday that Mr. Gonzales will step down as attorney general — coming on the heels of the resignation of Mr. Rove, the chief political strategist — effectively removes two of the biggest targets on Democrats’ hit list. Both were close friends and aides from Mr. Bush’s days as Texas governor, and both were being cast by Democrats as symbols of what they regarded as the Bush administration’s political excesses and failures.”
VIDEO: NBC's Pete Williams report on who will succeed Alberto Gonzales.The
Washington Post notes, “Rarely has a Cabinet-level resignation been so anticipated, coming long after Gonzales's credibility had been irreparably undermined by controversy. After he seemingly could do no more harm to the administration, Bush's friend and longtime confidant finally called it quits… But his case is not unique -- and that is what has confounded Bush's allies. The same pattern occurred with former defense secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.”
The Los Angeles Times says Gonzales “leaves an enduring legacy: a Justice Department mired in controversy over the firing of U.S. attorneys and a series of legal and moral challenges to his post-Sept. 11 policies on presidential power, torture and domestic spying.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: In a media avail yesterday in Philadelphia, the Delaware senator talked about fundraising his standing in the polls. “The vast majority of Democrats -- over 90 percent -- have not made up their mind, every poll shows, as to who they're going to support. What you see right now is name recognition and the consequence of being able to raise large amounts of money. It's kind of obscene, when you think about a political process, for a primary requiring, if it were true, $100 million. I don't think it requires anything near that, I think you have to raise closer to $25 million to compete in those early primaries. And, quite frankly, whomever among us doesn't finish one, two, or close third in Iowa or New Hampshire is out of this race, anyway. So, this is still wide, wide open. The Democrats haven't begun to make up their minds yet.”
CLINTON: The
Wall Street Journal reports that a family of modest means in San Francisco -- the head of the household is a mail carrier -- has given Hillary Clinton a total of $45,000 since 2005. “The Paws' political donations closely track donations made by Norman Hsu, a wealthy New York businessman in the apparel industry who once listed the Paw home as his address, according to public records. Mr. Hsu is one of the top fund-raisers for Mrs. Clinton's presidential campaign. He has hosted or co-hosted some of her most prominent money-raising events.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Newsday reports that Giuliani will help read aloud the names of the 9/11 victims at this year’s memorial anniversary.
HUCKABEE: The former Arkansas governor
says Thompson “will have trouble meeting expectations about his candidacy.” Said Huckabee: “’ … I think he's going to suck a lot of the oxygen out of the room when he first comes in. But I'm not sure I'd want to be in his position where the expectations are simply just sky-high for him to be able to perform.’”
THOMPSON: The
Politico writes, “With his summer-long windup to a presidential campaign finally nearing an end, actor-politician Fred Thompson defended his late entry into the race and said the continued interest in him is a reflection of Republican dissatisfaction with the rest of the field. But, in a Politico interview, Thompson also served notice that at least one measure of political strength -- fundraising -- is likely to look a bit wan when the next disclosure reports are released, reflecting a sluggish summer.”
CONTINUED >>
Pegged to today’s “Take A Stand” town halls sponsored by the anti-war Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, the Republican National Committee issued a press release this morning entitled: “Meet for Defeat -- Anti-War Coalition Plans Nationwide Meetings Advocating Surrender In Iraq.”
The
Washington Post interviews GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham -- the only member of the Senate to actually serve in Iraq -- after he served two weeks of reserve duty there. Graham called “for continuation of the ‘surge’ of U.S. troops in Iraq and warned that any decision to mandate a withdrawal this year would undercut critical gains made in recent months. Graham's comments come at a time when some of his colleagues on the Senate Armed Services Committee, including Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.) and Sen. Carl M. Levin (D-Mich.), are calling for troop withdrawals.”
Roll Call broke the news: “Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) was arrested in June at a Minnesota airport by a plainclothes police officer investigating lewd conduct complaints in a men’s public restroom, according to an arrest report obtained by Roll Call on Monday afternoon. Craig’s arrest occurred just after noon on June 11 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. On Aug. 8, he pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct in the Hennepin County District Court.”
VIDEO: NBC's Bob Faw reports on Sen. Craig's guilty plea.
The article also has these details: “According to the incident report, Sgt. Dave Karsnia was working as a plainclothes officer on June 11 investigating civilian complaints regarding sexual activity in the men’s public restroom in which Craig was arrested. Airport police previously had made numerous arrests in the men’s restroom of the Northstar Crossing in the Lindbergh Terminal in connection with sexual activity. Karsnia entered the bathroom at noon that day and about 13 minutes after taking a seat in a stall, he stated he could see ‘an older white male with grey hair standing outside my stall.’ The man, who lingered in front of the stall for two minutes, was later identified as Craig.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
It's not yet a presidential campaign, but "Friends of Fred Thompson" is again showing signs of internal growing pains. Just last Friday, Linda Rozett was on the job and putting out releases, but today -- as we mentioned earlier -- she's out as communications director.
In an interview with NBC News, Rozett characterized her unexpected departure as "not a noteworthy event." She added, "My hope is this will be seen for nothing more than [campaign manager] Bill Lacy bringing his own team together. And while it is not my desired outcome, it happens every day in Washington in politics and with high level communications people." Rozett was told Friday.
In an internal memo to the Thompson staff obtained by NBC, Lacy explains his thinking: "I will have to make a lot of tough decisions to make our venture successful, and this was one of them. Linda is a talented, professional and gracious lady who will be missed. But in the limited amount of time we have, I feel it critical to have a communications point person with significant campaign experience."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Despite the overall serious nature of today’s LIVESTRONG forum, Kucinich had several comedic moments during his turn with moderators Lance Armstrong and Chris Matthews. After being asked if the Food and Drug Administration is always working in the best interest of the American people, the Ohio congressman lamented the amount of genetically modified food on the market -- using it is an opportunity to tout his own lifestyle choices. “This is why I happen to be a vegan, okay? I know a little bit about this.” Without missing a beat, he added, smiling, “People want a president who is healthy, because if you’re healthy, you can think right.”
The laughs didn’t stop there. Kucinich went on to explain the benefits of his diet, citing increased energy, clarity, and a better quality of life. Matthews went on to insinuate that Kucinich’s new lifestyle may have helped him match up with a younger wife, to which the presidential hopeful added, “I’m 60 years old, I have a -- my wife’s 29, you draw your own conclusions. Diet helps.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Right off the bat, Richardson called for a renewed effort in Richard Nixon's war on cancer. "This president wants a surge in the war in Iraq," Richardson said in his opening statement. "I want a surge in the war on cancer." Instead of simply allocating more money for research funds, Richardson said presidential leadership is needed to win this war. He promised to use both the bully pulpit of the president to promote healthy lifestyles and to have the same motivation John F. Kennedy had when he said America would go to the moon within 10 years.
Richardson said cancer is not a front-page issue because it is "not sexy." But he has a five-fold plan: (1) focus on prevention with healthy eating and exercise habits and a smoking ban; (2) make screening available to every American; (3) dramatically increase cancer research; (4) create a cancer czar (Richardson said Armstrong would be the choice whether he wanted to be or not); and (5) increase biomedical research.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
One point of difference that arose between Edwards and Clinton, who spoke immediately before him at the LIVESTRONG Presidential Cancer forum, was on the topic of a federal ban on smoking in public places. While Clinton said she supported such a ban, she stopped short of calling on federal regulation. Edwards, on the other hand, said support a ban “in public places, yes.”
Edwards also continued his call for all Democrats to forego funding from Washington lobbyists, saying, “If you give them a seat at the table, they’ll eat all the food.”
VIDEO: John Edwards explains how to fund universal health care.After his speaking turn at the event, Edwards took questions from reporters. He was asked about Clinton touting herself as the experienced candidate on the issue of healthcare. “It’s been 13 or 14 years -- I have to do the math -- since that effort was made, and we still don’t have universal health care,” Edwards said, “and you cannot have universal health care by negotiating with insurance companies and drug companies.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Clinton was the first presidential candidate to speak at the LIVESTRONG presidential cancer forum, moderated by Lance Armstrong and MSNBC's Chris Matthews. Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, and Kucinich were the only Democrats who attended the forum today -- and Brownback and Huckabee are the only two to attend the Republican forum tomorrow. As he did on Meet the Press yesterday, Armstrong expressed his disappointment that other candidates chose not to attend. "It is my belief, like a lot of other Americans, that the next occupant of the Oval Office must discuss this critical issue with voters," Armstrong said at the beginning of the forum.
VIDEO: Hillary Clinton tells the Livestrong forum the Bush administration has waged a war against science and research.Matthews asked Clinton about this during her first question -- bringing up
Giuliani,
McCain, and
Obama, all who have a close connection to cancer but didn't attend. Clinton did not attack either Obama or any of her potential GOP opponents, but instead promised to renew Nixon's "war on cancer," making it one of her "big goals." She brought up her universal health-care plan (which she will reportedly unveil next month) several times, tying it in to her war on cancer answer. "The big goal of the war against cancer has to be fit into the absolute essential goal of quality affordable health care, universal health care for every single American," Clinton said. "You cannot do one without the other, and we need to do both, and I intend to."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Ahead of the rest of the presidential candidates, Obama visited New Orleans yesterday to commemorate the upcoming second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. While addressing the First Emanuel Baptist Church, he focused more on a religious message and -- for the most part -- left politics off the pulpit.
Promising to remember the past but to concentrate on looking ahead to fixing the future, Obama pledged to fix an "empathy deficit" created by America's culture that promotes responsibility to selves rather than to others. He also promised to rebuild a "bond of trust that was broken" so that people can depend on one another again. "Let New Orleans be a place for those who lived in the shadows can step out into the light," the senator said. "And let it be then, as Jesus said, a city that is set on a hill cannot be hit. And in 10 years, in 100 years, let people come here and say this is where the renewal began. Let this place be where it was said that the people came together to build that foundation and a deep darkness was replaced with a light of hope."
The congregation received Obama well, giving him numerous applauses, standing ovations, and "Amens." In fact, the pastor introduced him as the "our candidate for president of the United States of America" -- to rousing applause.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell and Domenico Montanaro
President Bush spoke today in Nevada about the Iraqi political agreement reached over the weekend. Sources say the White House feels the development should be “viewed as important” while also saying the president will be careful. “No one wants to oversell it,” the source said.
"Yesterday's agreement was an important step," Bush said. "But much more needs to be done."
VIDEO: President Bush congratulates Iraqi leaders on what he called a promising sign of politcal progress.It was announced late Sunday that Iraq’s five top political leaders agreed to welcome into the government former members of
Saddam Hussein's Baath Party and to release thousands of Baath Party detainees, who have been held without charge. But Sunni Arab leaders said the agreement will do little to reincorporate minority Sunnis.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Sources tell NBC News that it "won't be a long, drawn out" process to pick Gonzales' successor as attorney general. The window is possibly the end of this week when the president is back in DC and before his APEC trip to Australia. That is an insider's estimation on timing.
A "very,very short list" of people knew about the Gonzales resignation. Gonzales presented his letter in person Sunday. The letter has not been made available yet. It is also "not out of the realm of possibility" that other senior White House officials will announce their departures soon, a source said, but did not say who or when.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
President Bush said he “reluctantly accepted” Alberto Gonzales’ resignation and reflected on the attorney general’s legacy and tenure, calling him a man of “integrity, decency and principle.”
VIDEO: President Bush denounces what he calls unfair treatment of Alberto Gonzales.
Bush said Gonzales “played a critical role” in shaping the administration’s policies on the war on terror, the Patriot Act and helping get justices John Roberts and Samuel Alito nominated and confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
***ALSO SEE: Dramatic enough in itself, the announcement Monday morning that Attorney General Alberto Gonzales had resigned also set the stage for what may be one of most contentious confirmation hearings since the Senate rejected John Tower as defense secretary in 1989. CLICK HERE.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Attorney General
Alberto Gonzales announced his resignation this morning, speaking for about a minute from prepared remarks. He didn’t cite a reason for his resignation and took no questions, but Gonzales has been embroiled in a fight on Capitol Hill stemming from his role in the firing of U.S. Attorneys. Gonzales said he met with President Bush yesterday to discuss his intention to resign effective Sept. 17th.
VIDEO: Attorney General Alberto Gonzales announces he has resigned.
Gonzales said he was “grateful” to President Bush for giving him the chance to serve, said he has “lived the American dream” and that “Even my worst days as attorney general were better than my father’s best days.”
From NBC’s Pete Williams and Domenico MontanaroA senior administration official says
Gonzales' resignation was entirely his own decision. The official says Gonzales sent a letter to the president on Friday stating his intention to step down by mid-September but that the president did not accept it and instead invited Gonzales to Texas to talk about it.
Gonzales and his wife went to Crawford. The president and Gonzales talked Sunday and the president accepted, reluctantly, the official said.
Solicitor General Paul Clement will become acting attorney general once Gonzales is gone.
Here are the reactions from presidential candidates we’ve heard so far:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Per the
Atlantic's Marc Ambinder, the exodus in the Fred Thompson communications camp continues. Linda Rozett is the latest to depart, and Ambinder posits that it speaks to the power of Thompson's campaign manager, Bill Lacy, who appears to be "firmly in charge."
Rozett was brought on board at the suggestion of Thompson's wife, Jeri Thompson. Campaign insiders complained that Jeri Thompson had too much say in her husband's yet-to-be-announced presidential run.
From Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
*** Gonzo Gone: Breaking news from the New York Times: “Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, whose tenure has been marred by controversy and accusations of perjury before Congress, has resigned.” Per NBC’s Pete Williams, Gonzales will appear before cameras at 10:30 am ET to announce the news. Williams says the word of his resignation has caught the Justice Department entirely off guard. As for the rumor that Michael Chertoff would replace him, a senior Homeland official tells Williams that Chertoff has many things he'd like to accomplish at Homeland. The official knows of no plans for Chertoff -- who is in town today -- to make any change. Edwards was the first presidential candidate out of the gate with a statement, and it was only this: “Better late than never.”
Video: NBC's John Yang reports on the Gonzales resignation.
***
Another Anti-War Badge For Hillary: On Thursday, the highly disciplined Clinton made what seemed to be a pretty big faux pas: She suggested that Republicans would benefit if there’s a terrorist attack between now and November 2008, and that she would be the best Democratic candidate to deal with that GOP advantage. That remark -- which was picked up by the national press on Friday, but then virtually disappeared from the papers over the weekend -- was roundly criticized by rivals Dodd, Edwards, and Richardson. Yet the comment will most certainly be eclipsed not only by the Gonzo news, but also by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s sharp criticism of the New York senator for complaining about his leadership. Is there a better way to bolster one’s national security and anti-war credentials than by coming under attack from someone who seems to be even more unpopular than President Bush?
*** Experience Doesn’t Matter? Speaking of foreign affairs, the New York Times’ Helene Cooper made this interesting point over the weekend: that previous foreign-policy experience isn’t a prerequisite for an aspiring commander-in-chief. In fact, some with the most experience had mixed foreign-policy records as president. “‘I think experience is a terribly overrated idea when it comes to thinking about who should become president,’ said [historian] Robert Dallek… ‘Experience helped Richard Nixon, but it didn’t save him, and it certainly wasn’t a blanket endorsement. He blundered terribly in dealing with Vietnam.” With this -- and also with Carter national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski essentially endorsing Obama over Clinton -- are we beginning to see a shift in the CW on Obama and the issue of national security?
*** The DNC-Florida Dem Showdown: On Saturday, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to strip the Florida Democratic Party of all of its delegates for the state moving up its primary to January 29 -- if the party doesn’t come up with some sort of compromise within 30 days. Per a DNC official, the delegate reductions would be effective without further action from the full DNC or its executive committee. Yet this could all amount to nothing, even if the DNC acts. If we get a Democratic nominee by early February, as many expect, that person would effectively control the convention and would seat the Florida delegates. But what happens if -- and it’s a big if -- there’s a brokered convention (i.e., the nomination is still up for grabs)? Could Florida’s 200-some delegates be the difference between someone winning and losing?
*** The Tour de Iowa: In Cedar Rapids, IA beginning at 11:00 am ET, four Democratic presidential candidates -- Clinton, Edwards, Richardson, and Kucinich (in that order) -- participate today in the LIVESTRONG presidential cancer forum, moderated by MSNBC’s Chris Matthews and Lance Armstrong. Each candidate will have two minutes for an opening statement, and then will engage the moderators for 13 minutes in Q&A. Tomorrow, the Republican candidates -- just Brownback and Huckabee -- will have their turn speaking to Matthews and Armstrong. Brownback is a cancer survivor, while Edwards’ and Huckabee’s wives have battled with cancer. Yet there are some cancer survivors who will be no-shows at the forum, including Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson. Armstrong told Tim Russert on Meet the Press yesterday that he was disappointed with the no-shows: "I think the future commander-in-chief needs to show up and talk about what kills 600,000 Americans a year." Also, this will be the first forum/debate that Obama, whose mother died of ovarian cancer, has skipped since his campaign declared that it would begin limiting the senator’s appearances at debates and forums.
*** Katrina Politics: The other big event today is Katrina Recovery Summit in New Orleans, which Clinton, Edwards, Huckabee, and Hunter will address. Besides Iraq and the numerous GOP corruption scandals, no other event/situation hurt the Bush White House and the Republican brand more than Hurricane Katrina -- whose two-year anniversary comes on Wednesday. It also has raised a new threshold question for the presidential candidates: Can your administration effectively respond to a natural disaster and its aftermath? On Sunday, in fact, Obama unveiled a plan to speed up New Orleans’ recovery.
*** On The Trail: Sandwiched between her appearances at the LIVESTRONG forum and the Katrina summit, Clinton participates in a conversation with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers in Florida; Huckabee also meets with the union in Florida; and Fred Thompson visits the Minnesota State Fair.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 7 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 54 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 71 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 82 days
Countdown to Iowa: 139 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 161 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 435 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 512 days
The
AP: “Iraq's beleaguered prime minister lashed out Sunday at Democrats who have called for his ouster, saying Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Carl Levin of Michigan need to ‘come to their senses.’… ‘There are American officials who consider Iraq as if it were one of their villages, for example Hillary Clinton and Carl Levin. They should come to their senses,’ al-Maliki said at a news conference.”
Newsday: “The New York senator is likely to wear the criticism with Maliki as a political badge of honor, much as she has been able to harness a recent conflict with a hawkish Pentagon aide to win over some Democratic primary voters, aides said last night. The risks for her seem minuscule, considering Maliki is almost equally unpopular with Republicans.”
GOP Sen. John Warner said yesterday on Meet the Press that “he may support Democratic legislation ordering withdrawals if President Bush refuses to set a return timetable soon. ‘I'm going to have to evaluate it," Warner said. "I don't say that as a threat, but I say that is an option we all have to consider.’”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Today, Biden will pick up the endorsement of Jack Carter, the son of former President Jimmy Carter who lost his bid for the US Senate last year. Per the Biden campaign, Carter is expected to say, “Sen. Biden has entered serious proposals into the debate on many of the issues critical to Americans - and others – today. His son, Beau [Biden, newly elected Attorney General of Delaware], put it best to me a couple of months ago: 'Can you imagine what would happen if Dad came in first or second in Iowa?' That statement rang in me like a bell. I know how it can work...We did it in 1976. With Joe Biden, we don't have to worry about the problems with a lack of experience or high negatives affecting our chances in November. I'm very comfortable that he can win.”
Lack of experience? High negatives? We wonder which candidates Carter is thinking of here…
In addition, Iowa state Rep. Doris Kelley endorsed Biden on Friday.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Giuliani took shots at Democrats on Saturday during his tax plan rollout. “‘The Democrats believe in government when they have a choice. Republicans believe in people when we have a choice . . . The Republican Party is the party of the people. The Democratic Party is the party of the government.’”
The New Hampshire Union-Leader examined Giuliani’s flat tax plan. “Holding up a single piece of paper, he said future tax returns would fit on that piece of paper under his plan.”
On Saturday, the New York Times fact-checked claim on the campaign trail that, as New York mayor, he turned a $2.3 billion deficit into a multi-billion-dollar surplus. “The assertion, which Mr. Giuliani has repeated on the trail as he has promoted his fiscal conservatism, is somewhat misleading, independent fiscal monitors said. In fact, Mr. Giuliani left his successor, Michael R. Bloomberg, with a bigger deficit than the one Mr. Giuliani had to deal with when he arrived in 1994. And that deficit would have been large even if the city had not been attacked on Sept. 11, 2001.”
CONTINUED >>
Per NBC’s Domenico Montanaro, Abby Livingston, and John Yang… The Democratic National Committee took steps on Saturday that could strip the Florida Dem Party of all of its 210 delegates to next year's nominating convention -- unless it acts in the next 30 days to delay its delegate-selection contest, now set by state law for Jan. 29, by at least a week. The DNC is taking a hard line in this case because, officials say, if they don't and Florida is allowed hold its primary before Feb. 5, other states would break ranks and push to have earlier contests as well. "I hesitate of see what happens if we show somehow some wiggle room in the process," said Democratic committee member Donna Brazile, who ran Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign.
DNC rules say no contest can be held before Feb. 5 except for Iowa (Jan. 14), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22) and South Carolina (Jan. 29). The Florida primary date was set by a state law pushed by the GOP governor and the GOP-controlled legislature, which state Democratic officials say they opposed. DNC members suggested making the Jan. 29 primary a non-binding "beauty contest" and then hold a later event to allocate delegates. The DNC is offering the Florida party financial and organization help to stage caucuses on or after Feb. 5.
CONTINUED >>
More from the New York Times on Gonzales’ resignation: “Mr. Gonzales, who had rebuffed calls for his resignation, submitted his to President Bush by telephone on Friday, the official said. His decision was not immediately announced, the official added, until after the president invited him and his wife to lunch at his ranch near here. “Mr. Bush has not yet chosen a replacement but will not leave the position open long, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the Attorney General's resignation had not yet been made public.”
Even though Sen. Pete Domenici has put distance between himself and the White House when it comes to Iraq, President Bush travels to New Mexico today to raise money for the senator. It’s closed to the press. Then Bush heads to Washington State for an open-press fundraiser for Rep. Dave Reichert, who narrowly won re-election last fall.
From NBC's Mark Murray
-- "Senator Clinton’s remarks are deeply troubling," said Edwards communications director Chris Kofinis in a statement. "After nearly seven years of George Bush and the politics of fear, the American people deserve a President who will focus first on keeping America safe, rather than calculating the political consequences. Unfortunately, Senator Clinton is seemingly taking a page straight from the GOP playbook that got us into this mess -- using fear of another terror attack as a political tactic to bolster her candidacy, and that is just wrong.”
-- "We shouldn't be thinking about terrorism in terms of its domestic political consequences, we should be protecting the country from terrorists," said Richardson in a statement. "Senator Clinton seems to think that President Bush has made this country safer. I disagree with her. Our failed policy in Iraq is making us less safe."
From NBC's Mark Murray
At last weekend's Democratic debate,
Hillary Clinton once again made this argument in criticizing
Barack Obama for saying that nuclear weapons should be off the table when dealing with Al Qaeda in Pakistan: You need to be careful what you say. "We shouldn't use hypotheticals. You know, words do matter. And this campaign just like every other thing that happens in the United States, is looked at and followed with very great interest."
So given those remarks, it's striking that she made this hypothetical yesterday: "It's a horrible prospect to ask yourself 'What if? What if?,'" she said. "But if certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world. So I think I'm the best of the Democrats to deal with that as well." Clinton's comment came as she was touting her experience and how that would benefit her in a general election.
Her Democratic rivals weren't too pleased with the comment. Said Chris Dodd in a statement, "Frankly, I find it tasteless to discuss political implications when talking about a potential terrorist attack on the United States."
Asked for a response to Dodd's charge, Clinton spokesman Isaac Baker tells First Read, “Sen Clinton was making clear that she has the strength and experience to keep the country safe.”
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
…You probably think this bus tour's about you.
On Day Two of the New Hampshire media blitz designed to paint him as the change candidate,
Edwards insists that his retooled anti-establishment stump speech isn't intended to slam his Democratic rivals.
"Nothing I said yesterday has to do with other presidential candidates," Edwards told reporters in Manchester this morning. "They need to move on from thinking about themselves and think about what's important to the country."
Edwards faced tough questioning from journalists in the wake of comments yesterday that appeared to deliver a head-on accusation of too-cozy relations between the Clinton administration and DC lobbyists. (The Clinton camp responded by labeling his "angry attacks" as the mark of a "flagging" campaign.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroThe Biden campaign is sending out a fund-raising e-mail, hoping to reach $200,000 by the end of this month to keep his two ads in Iowa on the air. The campaign also includes a video, called “
Joe is Right,” which cuts together sound bites of presidential contenders, pundits, strategists, and journalists lauding Biden’s Iraq plan and foreign policy experience.
From NBC’s Libby Leist
As part of an administration-wide public relations effort to show progress in Iraq since the surge of U.S. troops in January, the State Department today organized a briefing for reporters to highlight what they believe is a success story in Anbar province.
State and DOD Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) leaders working in Ramadi, Anbar described many improvements in a city they found devastated when a new group of 6,000 U.S. soldiers and Marines arrived in March, but they also admit that the Al Qaeda threat is "always a worry" and that there is no planning for what might happen if U.S. troops are scaled back.
In March, 80 percent of the people did not have water and power, the leaders said, buildings were destroyed and al Qaeda was still a force.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Michigan Democrats issued a letter, endorsing the proposed early contest date of Jan. 15, which has already passed in the Michigan Senate.
This comes a day before the DNC is set to level heavy sanctions on Florida for moving up its date to Jan. 29. Part of why the DNC wants to take such a hard stance toward Florida is to send a message to other states, to put a halt to the shifting nominating contest calendar. But it will be interesting to see if tomorrow’s rules and bylaws meeting has the desired effect.
The letter was signed by 14 Democrats, including Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, Reps. John Dingell, Sander Levin, John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick.
Here is the full text of the letter:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The conservative New Hampshire Union-Leader this morning writes a staff editorial with the headline, “Clinton's surge-ery: Now it's working, now it's not.” Unabashedly, the Dodd campaign is circulating it, taking the opportunity to again blast Clinton on the perceived flip-flop.
In the e-mail from the Dodd campaign, Senior Adviser
Jim Jordan writes, "It's unnerving that a would-be Commander-in-Chief can't, or won't, make up her mind on something as fundamental as the success or failure of Bush's surge. Really, it smells like more poll-driven straddling."
**** UPDATE **** The Clinton campaign reponds: "The fact is that while Democrats, including Senator Edwards and Senator Obama, acknowledge progress in Al Anbar, Senator Clinton opposed the surge from the start and believes there is no military solution to the war in Iraq."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Andy Merten
Obama varied slightly from his stump speech last night at a rally at Coastal Carolina University in South Carolina, making a direct appeal to the mostly African-American crowd. He talked about the need for a "sense of urgency" to help all people in need, even if you yourself are doing well.
“For those who think, ‘Well my child’s doing alright, I don't have to worry about all these black children and brown children,’” Obama said, “let me tell you something: Half of the U.S. workforce is going to be black and brown in a few years, so our economy is going to depend on how those children do. Our children, making sure that somebody's working to pay our social security, is going to depend on those children working.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The day before the Democratic National Committee may level sanctions against Florida for moving up its primary to Jan. 29, Florida Democrats threatened legal action against the DNC if the state is punished and said the DNC would, in effect, “disenfranchise” Florida voters.
“If the DNC sanctions Florida, then some of us on the Florida congressional delegation may ask an appropriate legal venue to determine whether or not a political party’s rules can supercede someone’s right to vote,” said Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) on a conference call with reporters. Nelson admitted, though, he did not know what their legal argument would be or to which court they could appeal.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the battle of leapfrogging primaries.
Nelson also said he proposed a compromise to DNC Chairman Howard Dean twice, as recent as a month ago in a face-to-face meeting he described as cordial, that the other states all move up their selection contests by seven days to maintain the nominating order.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's a quick final thought today since the morning version of First Read isn't publishing tomorrow... Earlier this week, proponents of Bush's troop surge were seeing some things finally break their way just before Gen. Petraeus' September report on the situation in Iraq. First, some Democrats started to speak positively about the surge. Even Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton said it was working in Al Anbar Province, although she added that it was too little, too late (and then stated on Wednesday that the surge failed). Next came the new multi-million-dollar TV ad campaign arguing that a withdrawal from Iraq would be disastrous.
But that good news for the White House and its allies came to a crashing halt today -- with today's updated NIE report (which said that security in Iraq will continue to improve modestly, but that the level of sectarian violence there will remain high), and the speech by GOP Sen. John Warner (who argued that the White House should begin a small withdrawal of troops).
Is it fair to say that we're back to where we were before the week started: that the surge and Iraq remain perilous political issues for the White House and the GOP?
From NBC's Mark Murray
Roll Call reported this afternoon that Rep. Rick Renzi, R-Ariz., has decided not to seek re-election, "ending months of speculation regarding the ethically clouded congressman’s political future."
"Renzi’s retirement announcement adds to a list of GOP Members planning to depart upon the conclusion of the 110th Congress, including Reps. Ray LaHood (Ill.), Deborah Pryce (Ohio) and Chip Pickering (Miss.), as well as former Speaker and Rep. Dennis Hastert (Ill.)."
"But while some of those retirements and the open seats they are creating could cause problems for the Republicans’ hopes of recapturing the majority, Renzi’s departure could help the GOP by allowing them to nominate a replacement that is free of the ethical baggage that appears to have ultimately undone the Congressman’s future."
Despite that, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Jennifer Crider issued this statement: “Rick Renzi is following the Republican Conference corruption playbook -- both Bob Ney and Duke Cunningham announced they were ‘retiring’ before they pleaded guilty and resigned. The people of Arizona’s First Congressional District deserve to be represented by someone who puts them first and is free of criminal and ethical scandal.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
With the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee set on Saturday to consider possible sanctions against Florida after moving up its primary to January 29, Florida Democrats -- Sen. Bill Nelson and Reps. Alcee Hastings, Kendrick Meek, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Kathy Castor -- today fired a warning shot at the DNC.
In a letter to DNC chairman Howard Dean, these five Democrats said they were concerned that the DNC would sanction Florida Democrats if the state goes ahead with its plan to hold its binding primary on a date before February 5. "If true -- and, if the DNC strips Florida of all or some of its delegates to the national convention -- we would ask the appropriate legal officials to determine whether this could violate any state or federal laws governing and protecting individual voting rights."
And then they said this, a reminder of the 2000 voting chaos in the state: "It always has been a priority of our party to protect the right of every eligible American to vote. We would hope the DNC will continue to honor this right, when the Rules and Bylaws Committee meets Saturday in Washington."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten and Abby Livingston
Asked if he agrees with some fellow Democratic senators if Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki should be removed from power, Obama said the problem “goes beyond” who specifically is in power.
“We could have one, two, three, four replacements for Maliki,” Obama said, “but if the underlying political dynamic hasn’t changed, then we’re not going to see progress. … We know that by putting outstanding U.S. troops on the ground, that they will, on the short term, reduce violence. But unless we can get the various factions to work together, we’re not going to see the kind of progress that’s needed.”
Obama made the comments in response to questions from reporters after a roundtable discussion on education in South Carolina. The school he spoke at is the oldest public school in the Palmetto State and was highlighted in the documentary "Corridors of Shame" for its poor conditions. Obama acknowledged the conditions at J.V. Martin Junior High and emphasized his view that federal funding has been misplaced and could be put toward schools like this one.
"We're building schools -- in Baghdad," Obama said, and "we have lost a lot of revenue from tax cuts to individuals that didn't need them and weren't even asking for it."
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum
In a speech on health-care quality in New Hampshire, Clinton laid out her five-fold plan to Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center health care professionals: (1) support health care providers, (2) educate patients, (3) reimburse doctors by rewarding quality, (4) recruit and retain more nurses, which she called the "heart and soul of the health care system," and (5) address health disparities for both racial/ethnic reasons and preexisting conditions.
Using language Clinton has previously reserved for the Iraq war and the military, Clinton said America "plod[s] along with a 20th-Century health-care system unable to take full advantage of 21st-Century medical advances, stuck in the same rut of fatalistic thinking that has defined our health-care debate for more than a decade."
Unlike Edwards and Obama who have laid out their entire health care policies in one speech, Clinton's policy speech today is the second of three on the topic. Earlier this summer, Clinton talked about lowering costs in health care, and she promised a speech next month on her plan for universal healthcare. "My order here is deliberate," Clinton said. "In order to forge a consensus on universal health care, we need to assure people that they'll get the quality they expect at a price they can afford."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
On the heels of the updated National Intelligence Report on Iraq, Obama proposed eight things the United States should do, including redeploying troops, issuing a “transparent timetable” and ramping up diplomatic efforts
“This National Intelligence Estimate underscores the fundamental truth that we cannot continue to substitute the bravery of our troops for a true commitment from the Iraqi government to resolve the grievances at the heart of their civil war, and a true commitment from the Administration to aggressive diplomacy,” Obama said.
**** UPDATE 2 **** CLICK MORE FOR CLINTON'S RESPONSE
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Dodd became the latest to criticize Michigan and other states for trying to leapfrog the traditional nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Dodd also subtly criticizes Edwards for his stance on the primaries in the e-mailed press release.
“I disagree with those candidates who would say that they are ‘running a national campaign’ and accept the political maneuvering to preempt Iowa’s time-tested and important role in the process of choosing which candidate would make the strongest nominee and strongest President,” Dodd writes.
But in the statement, Dodd takes a shot at Edwards. The words “who would say they are 'running a national campaign'” link to Edwards’ interview with the Associated Press. In that interview, Edwards said, "I'm running a national campaign, so I'm going to campaign in the states that are participating in the process. My job is not to make the rules, my job is to run."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The same group that created the notorious ad for the RNC against Harold Ford in his 2006 U.S. Senate run, depicting a blonde woman telling Ford to “Call me,” is going to be leading the way in crafting Giuliani’s image.
Heath Thompson, a partner at Scott Howell and Company, will serve as Giuliani’s Lead Creative Consultant. Thompson was President Bush’s regional political director in 2004 for 10 states, including Florida and Missouri. He also directed Bush’s 2000 South Carolina primary win.
Also hopping on to promote the Giuliani cause are Chris Mottola and Associates, BrabenderCox and Crossroads Media. Mottola was also part of Bush’s 2000 and 2004 creative team and has represented Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and former New York Gov. and one-time Republican presidential hopeful George Pataki. BrabenderCox has mostly worked on U.S. House, Senate and governors’ races. Crossroads has worked with the national Republican committees and says it has placed an ad in every state in the country within the past 17 years.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
John Edwards’ speech this morning from Hanover, NH today wasn't short on jabs against the “establishment” and “Washington insiders" -- words that seemed directed at Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.
“We have got to chart a new course,” Edwards said. “Those wedded to the policies of the ‘70s, ‘80s, or ‘90s are wedded to the past -- ideas and policies that are tired, shop worn, and obsolete. We will find no answers there.” He went on to warn of only looking fondly on the past: “The problem with nostalgia is what we tend to do is, you only remember what you liked and forget the parts that you didn’t like,” he said, without making any verbal recognition towards the Clinton presidency.
When asked by a reporter after his speech if his warnings against nostalgia and the establishment were digs at Clinton, Edwards neither confirmed nor denied that they should be interpreted as such. He simply reasserted what he said during his address, saying, “Going back doesn’t move us forward, and we need to move forward,” adding, “We have to take on the entrenched interests that exist in Washington and stand between us and the change that the American people want to see.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
NBC News has obtained the National Intelligence Estimate report on Iraq, which is entitled:
"Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive." Here are some key excerpts...
-- "There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq's security situation since our last NIE on Iraq in January 2007... However, the level of violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI) retains the ability of conduct high-profile attack; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions."
-- "We assess, the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next 6 to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
On The Daily Show last night,
Obama was asked by Jon Stewart to touch on the “experience vs. change” narrative that has dominated the media's coverage of him and Democratic opponent
Hillary Clinton. When Stewart asked if Clinton’s four additional years in the Senate -- in addition to her tenure as First Lady -- really makes her the more “experienced” of the two, Obama answered carefully. “She’s a very capable senator,” adding, “I think people rightly give her credit for having been a participant in the Clinton Administration, and that she was doing some of the heavy lifting on issues.”
But Obama went on to differentiate himself from Clinton in the same manner as he’s been doing in debates and on the stump. “I do think that, increasingly what Americans are looking for is not Washington experience, but do you have life experience that is going to lead you to make good decisions, and are you in touch with what’s happening on the ground?”
Earlier in the interview, Obama lauded the enthusiastic outpouring of support from youth his campaign has seen so far. When Stewart questioned if he was providing kegs to draw college-aged crowds, Obama jokingly replied, “We don’t like to divulge our secrets.”
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
The Re-Launch: So is Edwards trying to re-launch his campaign? It depends on how one interprets a speech he’s giving today in New Hampshire, where he attempts to re-frame the race in a way that makes him the real change agent in the Democratic race. “The choice for our party could not be more clear,” Edwards will say, according to advance excerpts. “We cannot replace a group of corporate Republicans with a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other.” He also will say, “The choice we must make is as important as it is clear. It is a choice between looking back and looking forward. A choice between the way we’ve always done it and the way we could do it if we dared… It is caution versus courage. Old versus new. Calculation versus principle. It is the establishment elites versus the American people.” This, it seems, will be the argument that Edwards plans to use against Clinton for the rest of the campaign. At a minimum, consider this the new stump speech.
 |
|
***
Hillary And Health Care: Interestingly, as Edwards argues for the candidates to think big and bold, Clinton also is in New Hampshire today, where she delivers a speech on health-care quality. It’s her second health-care address -- the first one was on costs. She has still to unveil her entire health-care plan. No doubt the Edwards camp hopes the fact that both he and Clinton will be New Hampshire on the same day will make the contrast he is trying to create easy for the media to pick up on.***
The Romney Two-Step: Another Romney flip-flop? The
Washington Post picks up on the state's rights comments regarding abortion that Romney recently made in an interview with Nevada political journo Jon Ralston (see yesterday's First Read). The Post notes that Romney's states' rights defense differed from a debate answer he gave when he said he was in favor of a Constitutional amendment to restrict abortion. The campaign’s response: that Romney “supports a two-step process in which states get authority over abortion after Roe v. Wade is overturned, followed eventually by a constitutional amendment that bans most abortions." Is anyone else a bit confused? Did Romney simply get caught up in "states' rights" spin because he knew he had to justify Nevada's support for gaming?
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd on Mitt Romney's support for states' rights and abortion restrictions.
***
It’s The Economy…: The
Washington Post’s Birnbaum today writes about the reaction by the presidential candidates to the newest issue on the trail: the country's credit crunch. "Sensing an opportunity to connect with voters on an issue important to their economic futures, presidential candidates have rushed out a variety of prescriptions for these woes, with Democrats proposing the most aggressive solutions… Republican presidential candidates have been less activist in their response to the credit tightness.” Bottom line: What if we're all wrong about what this election is going to be about? What if it's NOT about Iraq but about the economy? Isn't that a bigger nightmare for the GOP than having to fight an election about Iraq? Remember, the pocketbook ALWAYS trumps -- if the pocketbook starts to look a bit bare with rank-and-file voters. Does the economy become a deadlier political punch for the Republicans to deal with than Iraq? It certainly doesn’t help.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Gravel, Kucinich, and Richardson attend a forum in California called Prez on Rez with Native American elected tribal leaders from around the country; Obama is in South Carolina; and Richardson -- in addition to attending the Prez on the Rez forum -- rolls out his “Mi Familia con Richardson” grassroots program to reach out to Latinos.
*** A Note About Tomorrow: The morning edition of First Read will return on Monday. But don’t worry -- we’ll have plenty of updates on our Web site all day Friday.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 11 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 58 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 75 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 86 days
Countdown to Iowa: 143 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 165 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 439 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 516 days
The Washington Post on Bush’s speech yesterday: “President Bush defended his ongoing military commitment in Iraq by linking the conflict there to the Vietnam War, arguing Wednesday that withdrawing U.S. troops would lead to widespread death and suffering as it did in Southeast Asia three decades ago… Although his comments played well among the veterans here -- the speech was interrupted with repeated cheers and applause -- the references to the Vietnam conflict, which remains a divisive, emotional issue for many Americans, prompted strong criticism from Democrats.”
VIDEO: In a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, President Bush compares the Iraq war to U.S. involvment in Asia.Interestingly, in the White House press office' s "Morning Update," the staff appeared to take pains to find clips of Bush's VFW speech that didn't make the Vietnam comparison. Notice the phrase "far east."
The New York Times adds, “The speech was the beginning of an intense White House initiative to shape the debate on Capitol Hill in September, when the president’s troop buildup will undergo a re-evaluation. It came amid rising concerns in Washington over the performance of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq, who has made little progress toward bridging the sectarian divide in his country.”
More: “On Thursday, the administration is planning to make public parts of a sober new report by American intelligence agencies expressing deep doubts that the Maliki government can overcome sectarian differences. Government officials who have seen the report say it gives a bleak outlook on the chances Mr. Maliki can meet milestones intended to promote unity in Iraq.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Here's a piece that will make the Obama campaign crazy.
Bloomberg News has a story about how little Clinton and Obama disagree on such issues as Iraq and taxes and even health care. Doesn't the more the sentiment is out there, the more it helps Clinton and hurts Obama? "While their approaches set them apart, the front-runners for the Democratic nomination have almost no differences on issues."
EDWARDS: The
AP previews Edwards’ speech today, noting that it plans “to make an aggressive challenge to his Democratic rivals, charging their ‘change rhetoric’ doesn't match their policies and voters shouldn't pick based on nostalgia.”
Some excerpts of the speech the campaign gave to First Read. Anyone else think they’re pointed at Clinton? “The choice we must make is as important as it is clear. It is a choice between looking back and looking forward. A choice between the way we’ve always done it and the way we could do it if we dared. A choice between corporate power and the power of democracy. Between a corrupt and corroded system and a government that works for us again.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The
New York Times picks up on the attacks Giuliani is receiving from Romney and Thompson over guns and immigration, and it notes they are coming via references to "New York City."
Meanwhile, Giuliani supporter Guy Molinari
decided to rip Thompson for the gun attack. "Giuliani's adviser called Thompson out of bounds for penning a column on his blog blasting New York City's gun-control laws under Giuliani and his successor, Mayor Bloomberg. ‘He's not just attacking Rudy. He's attacking every resident of New York City,’ Molinari charged.”
Giuliani again said, "I will end illegal immigration," which won him “his loudest applause of the evening,” the New York Daily News writes. Giuliani added, "And one of the strict requirements of citizenship should be that you have to read English, write English and understand English.”
CONTINUED >>
Could George Mitchell be asked to come in and create a compromise on the primary calendar? Believe it or not, it's one semi-serious idea
floating around Democrats.
In a statement yesterday, Bill Richardson joined with Joe Biden to hint that he might skip Michigan, should the state go ahead with a January 15 primary.
Edwards, in an interview with the
AP, was asked about the shifting calendar. He said "he won't let his party's efforts to control the primary calendar dictate where he campaigns. "I'm running a national campaign, so I'm going to campaign in the states that are participating in the process," Edwards said in a separate interview. "My job is not to make the rules, my job is to run."
The campaign later clarified to the AP that Edwards would only campaign in states sanctioned by the DNC but didn't rule out breaking that pledge.
CONTINUED >>
Start your tongues a-wagging... Jim Webb makes
his first appearance in New Hampshire as a US senator on October 20 as the keynote speaker for the state Democrats' J-J dinner. Could this be an audition for Webb as a potential running mate?
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
An analysis of federal campaign finance data shows 12 of the people listed as funding the group Freedom’s Watch have given $4.2 million -- overwhelmingly to Republicans -- since the 2000 election cycle.
Most of the donors have given solely to Republicans. Gary Erlbaum has given some money to Democrats, including Ben Cardin, Joe Lieberman and Chuck Schumer, but the majority of his money has gone to Republicans, including $3,000 to Giuliani’s 2008 presidential campaign.
The largest donor Dr. John Templeton, of the John Templeton Foundation and son of the founder of Templeton Investments, has given about $2.1 million -- solely to Republicans.
Here’s a breakdown of their donation totals:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The date of September 11 for the General Petraeus' testimony in the House does not sit well with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and she is asking that the date be moved from the anniversary of the attacks -- which Pelosi views as "a sacred day," according to sources in her office.
It has been reported that House Democratic leaders signed off of the 9/11 date, but that is not accurate. The Administration offered the 11th or the 12th, and no date was agreed upon, according to the same sources.
Problem: The only alternatives would be the 10th (a Monday) or the 12th (Wednesday). In the latter case, the hearing would have to be concluded before sundown and the beginning of Rosh Hashanah. The House will not be in on Thursday the 13th or Friday the 14th due to the holiday.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
The donors who are financing the new multi-million-dollar TV ad campaign arguing against a withdrawal from Iraq include a Who's Who of former Bush Administration ambassadors (to plum assignments like France, Italy, and Malta); a least one of Bush's original Pioneers; the man ranked by Forbes (in 2006) as the third-richest American; and, of course, former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer.
Brad Blakeman, the president of Freedom's Watch, which is running these ads, released the following names as donors to his group. Blakeman told NBC that the rest of the donors are choosing to be anonymous. Freedom's Watch is a 501(c)4 organization, which can collect unlimited contributions and doesn't have to disclose its donors.
Here they are....
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
First Read has confirmed that the Biden campaign is reshuffling its finance team. According a source close to the campaign, Finance Director Chris Koerner has turned over day-to-day management of the finance operation to Biden's long-time finance director, Dennis Toner. “She is not going anywhere, and her title remains the same,” the source said of Koerner, who will focus on raising money from trial lawyers.
Veteran New York fundraiser Paula Levine “is stepping up to play larger role” as is Mary Liz Kane, Sen. Ted Kennedy's long-time finance director in Boston.
Through the first two quarters, Biden has only raised $4.4 million, behind the fund-raising numbers of Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Dodd.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A sampling of some of the reactions (so far) to Bush's VFW speech today...
John Kerry: "Invoking the tragedy of Vietnam to defend the failed policy in Iraq is as irresponsible as it is ignorant of the realities of both of those wars," Senator Kerry said. "Half of the soldiers whose names are on the Vietnam Memorial Wall died after the politicians knew our strategy would not work. The lesson is to change the strategy not just to change the rhetoric.
Clinton: "The surge was designed to give the Iraqi government time to take steps to ensure a political solution to the situation. It has failed to do so. The White House's report in September won’t change that... We need to stop refereeing the war, and start getting out now."
Obama: "The disastrous consequences described by President Bush are already in motion and are a direct result of a war that should never have been authorized. There is no military solution to Iraq's problems. The only way to reverse these consequences is to change course through a surge in our diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in Iraq and the region, and a phased withdrawal of our forces that puts real pressure on the Iraqi government to act."
Biden: "President Bush continues to cling to a fundamentally flawed premise –- that Iraqis will rally behind a strong central government. That will not happen... Bush today attempted to draw an analogy to Vietnam, but in fact it’s the president’s policies that are pushing us toward another Saigon moment –- with helicopters fleeing the roof of our embassy."
From NBC’s Courtney Kube and Domenico Montanaro
At his speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, President Bush emphasized support for Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
“Prime Minister Maliki is a good man,” Bush said, “a good guy with a difficult job, and I support him. And it is not up to the politicians in Washington, D.C to say whether he will remain in his position. That is up to the Iraqi people, who now live in a democracy, not a dictatorship.”
Video: President Bush speaks to the Veterans of Foreign War annual meeting in Kansas City.
The Pentagon echoed sentiments out of Bush and the White House this morning, saying the Department continues to support Maliki.
Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell conceded that the pace of political progress in Iraq has “not been to anyone's liking,” but added that Maliki’s government is “the government we have been working with, and we will continue to be supportive of their efforts.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroSen.
Tim Johnson (D-SD) will head home to South Dakota Tuesday for the first time since having brain surgery in December. Johnson and his, Barbara, will host a “
Thank You, South Dakota” event in Sioux Falls that day, which will be Johnson's first public appearance since the surgery.
“He’s excited to go home,” said Megan Smith, Johnson’s Senate deputy communications director. “Doctors gave him the green light to go home. We think it’s going to be a happy event.”
Johnson is expected back in the Senate this fall.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A $25 million spin campaign is on to win the public relations battle ahead of the mid-September Iraq progress report. Two groups on opposite sides of the ideological debate on whether or not to withdraw troops from Iraq have launched a massive television campaign to frame the debate.
Freedom’s Watch, with whom former Bush White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer is working, today launched $15 million worth of ads with anecdotal accounts of injured veterans and families of those who have lost relatives who advocate for staying in Iraq.
The ads are largely in response to $10 million worth of ads already running, which are paid for by Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, a coalition of groups that want troops to begin to be withdrawn from Iraq.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
The Best Analogy? Two days after Clinton and McCain spoke to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, and a day after Obama and Thompson did the same, President Bush addresses the group this morning. Per excerpts released by the White House, Bush will say that the surge is working and that withdrawal from Iraq could lead to the same killing of innocent lives like we saw after leaving Vietnam. “One unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America’s withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like ‘boat people,’ ‘re-education camps,’ and ‘killing fields,’” the president is expected to say. Yet not only does such a comparison invite Bush to being asked about the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians who have already died since the war began, it also raises this question: Does Bush really want to compare Iraq to Vietnam? "Does he think we should have stayed in Vietnam?" Vietnam historian Stanley Karnow says in
USA Today.
***
Coming Soon To A TV Screen Near You: Also, don’t miss the news that a conservative group -- whose spokesman is former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer -- is going up today with a $15 million advertising campaign arguing that the troop surge is working. Those ads will compete against ones that antiwar groups (like Americans Against Escalation in Iraq and Americans United for Change) are/will be airing. The battle to define Petraeus’ September report is already beginning.
*** The Real Political Fight Going On: Giuliani’s campaign yesterday decided to respond to the veiled attacks coming from the Romney and Thompson camps. While not attacking Giuliani by name, they certainly attacked "New York City" on the issues of immigration and guns. Here’s Giuliani spokesperson Katie Levinson responding directly to Thompson's blog post on New York City's gun policies: "Those who live in New York in the real world -- not on TV -- know that Rudy Giuliani's record of making the city safe for families speaks for itself. No amount of political theater will change that." Bottom line, folks: The media may care more about Clinton vs. Obama right now, but Giuliani vs. Thompson/Romney is where the real action has been this week.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Mitt Romney's and Fred Thompson's attacks on Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.
*** A Chain Reaction? As we reported last week, Michigan is working to move up its primary to January 15, leapfrogging it -- for now -- past New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina (although New Hampshire will obviously move up to remain the nation’s first primary). In response to Michigan’s move, Biden released this statement yesterday: “Powerful interests are trying to change the Democratic nomination for President into a game of Monopoly, replacing the retail politics of Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire with a process in which the only credential necessary to be President is to be the wealthiest candidate.” He then called on his Dem rivals to join him to ensure those states’ primacy on the nominating calendar. Will this lead to the candidates promising to skip Michigan? Which Democrats will join Biden’s call? Remember, this Michigan legislation isn't a done deal yet, so maybe the state legislators will compromise to end up on January 22 instead of the 15th, which would potentially preserve (at a minimum) the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire.
*** Bayou bashing: Although the presidential race is dominating most of the nation’s political talk, things are getting downright ugly in this year’s Louisiana gubernatorial contest. The state Democratic Party there is running a TV ad blasting front-runner Bobby Jindal (R), a Catholic, for writing an article back in the 1990s comparing Catholicism with Protestantism. The ad, which is airing in the Protestant-heavy north part of the state, goes: "He wrote articles that insulted thousands of Louisiana Protestants. He has referred to Protestant religions as scandalous, depraved, selfish, and heretical." Jindal, the overwhelming favorite to be the state’s next governor, has called the accusations false. With the election 59 days away, will the ad hurt him, possibly keeping him below the 50% needed to avoid a run-off? Or will it produce backlash on the Dems? One thing’s for sure: Nonpartisan political analyst Stu Rothenberg is calling it one of the “hardest hitting” -- and possibly even the “dirtiest” ad -- in history.
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***
On The Trail: Biden and Richardson participate in a Brookings Institution/University of Nevada, Reno forum on education. Before that, they address the Nevada AFL-CIO convention. Elsewhere, Giuliani rallies with supporters in Del Mar, CA; Huckabee continues to campaign in South Carolina; Hunter holds a press conference in Texas; Obama raises money in New Hampshire, campaigns in New York, and then appears on Comedy Central’s Daily Show; and Romney visits Jackson Hole, WY.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 12 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 59 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 76 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 87 days
Countdown to Iowa: 144 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 166 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 440 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 517 days
In previewing Bush’s VFW speech today,
USA Today also writes about the TV ad battle over how to define the success of the troop surge. “Freedom's Watch, a conservative group, plans to launch a $15 million advertising campaign in 20 states today. The group's spokesman, former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer, says the goal is to tell people that the buildup of U.S. troops in Iraq is working. ‘We want to get the message to both Democrats and Republicans: Don't cut and run, fully fund the troops, and victory is the only objective,’ Fleischer says.”
"One of the main voices in the anti-war movement is a coalition called Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, which includes such liberal groups as MoveOn.org, the Center for American Progress and the Service Employees International Union. The coalition is running advertisements attacking senators and representatives who support Bush's Iraq policies. "Our ads are about defining the Republicans in the minds of the voters as sticking with Bush on Iraq," says Tom Matzzie, director of the ad campaign."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Biden spoke at a
Jewish temple in Iowa and said, “The road to peace between Israelites and Palestinians is not through Baghdad, but ironically, the road to be able to negotiate real peace has to first settle the situation in Baghdad.”
CLINTON: In
response to Obama’s comments that the US should move toward normalizing relations with Cuba -- if the country takes steps towards democracy -- Clinton responds in a statement: "Until it is clear what type of policies might come with a new government, we cannot talk about changes in the U.S. policies toward Cuba," reports the AP’s Hispanic Affairs reporter Laura Wides-Munoz.
It looks like the Clinton campaign has joined the Obama camp in ramping up their traveling press operation. With so many reporters on the verge of hitting the trail on Sept. 3rd, there's no time like the present to beef things up. Bill Clinton spokesman Jay Carson will become Hillary’s new traveling press person. Carson has the added authority with the Clinton campaign that he'll have Bill's ear. The again, is that a danger? Bill Clinton now has direct access to the traveling press aide?
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The Giuliani campaign will begin
rolling out his tax policy this week. On Saturday, for instance, his campaign will sponsor a forum on taxes, which will be moderated by former Massachusetts Gov. Paul Cellucci and former presidential candidate Steve Forbes.
The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein observes that Giuliani is bearing the brunt of the attacks in the GOP battle for purity on immigration.
The New York Post looks at New York’s immigration policies: “Former Mayor Ed Koch initiated the policy in the 1988 to encourage illegal immigrants to report crimes, seek medical treatment and enroll their kids in schools without fear of being reported. The policy was continued by successors David Dinkins, Giuliani and Bloomberg. A Giuliani campaign official said Romney's slam was "desperate" and ‘hypocritical.’”
And America's most famous Yankees fan believes the team needs to step up and re-sign A-Rod.
CONTINUED >>
At a minimum, the ballot initiative Republicans are pushing in California, which if enacted could deliver as many as 20 electoral votes to the Republican presidential nominee next year is going to cost Democratic interest groups millions of dollars. The campaign to defeat this initiative is now officially on… Two California Democrats, Peter Ragone and Chris Lehane, unveiled initiatives that would bound California in a compact with other states (if other states chose to do this) to deliver their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. Here's the Los Angeles Times coverage of the rollout.
The DNC rules committee meets later this week to decide whether to sanction Florida and then, of course, begin a discussion of what to do about Michigan. According to the Politico, the DNC rules committee members appear to be less interested in finding compromise and more interested in exacting a punishment.
Speaking of the DNC… This is not an Onion story. Michael Dukakis is apparently helping Howard Dean's DNC with precinct targeting. Are we sure the RNC has taken over the New York Observer?
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Edwards campaign issued a statement attacking Clinton for comments on the surge at the VFW convention yesterday. "Senator Hillary Clinton's view that the president's Iraq policy is 'working' is another instance of a Washington politician trying to have it both ways,” said Rep. David Bonior, Edwards’ campaign manager. “You cannot be for the President's strategy in Iraq but against the war. The American people deserve straight talk and real answers on Iraq, not double-speak, triangulation, or political positioning.”
The Edwards campaign did acknowledge progress in Al-Anbar in the statement, but Bonior added that progress “should not distract us from the fact that pouring more military resources into Iraq is no substitute for the comprehensive national political solution that will ultimately resolve the situation in Iraq. … By cherry-picking one instance to validate a failed Bush strategy, it risks undermining the effort in the Congress to end this war.”
****UPDATE**** We posted what Clinton said in this morning's First Thoughts, but here it is again for context: "We've begun to change tactics in Iraq and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar province, it's working. We're just years too late changing our tactics. We can't ever let that again. We can't be fighting the last war, we have to be preparing to fight a new war."
**** UPDATE 2 **** Clinton camp's response: "Senator Edwards was right on Sunday when he said that all the Democrats would end the war and that the differences between them were small," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton senior adviser. "He is wrong today to distort Senator Clinton's opposition to the surge in a sad attempt to raise his flagging poll numbers. The fact is that while Democrats, including Senator Edwards and Senator Obama, acknowledge progress in Al Anbar, Senator Clinton opposed the surge from the start and believes there is no military solution to the war in Iraq."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In his address to the VFW today, Obama spoke on the theme of "sacred trust," using the phrase seven times in his 26-minute speech. He defined "sacred trust" simply: "America will be there for you just as you have been there for America" -- "from the moment you put on that uniform." Obama recognized he is running to become commander-in-chief "to safeguard this nation's security and to keep that sacred trust."
Obama brought up the Iraq War in the beginning of the speech, and then spoke about veterans' issues -- the opposite order of Hillary Clinton's own speech yesterday to the organization. He also criticized the Iraq war much more bluntly than Clinton did. After praising the troops' performance, he very clearly stated, "all of our top military commanders recognize that there is no military solution to the problems in Iraq."
"No matter how brilliantly and bravely our troops and their commanders perform -- and they have performed brilliantly and bravely -- they cannot and should not bear the responsibility of resolving grievances at the heart of Iraq's civil war," he said. "No military surge no matter how brilliantly performed can succeed without political reconciliation and a surge of diplomacy in Iraq and the region. Iraq's leaders are not reconciling. They are not achieving political benchmarks. The only thing that they seem to have agreed on is to take a vacation."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
It was soon-to-be candidate Fred Thompson's turn today to address the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Kansas City, Mo. While he didn’t explicitly mention his likely campaign for the presidency, his rhetoric on the Iraq war was similar to that of some of the official GOP candidates.
Like McCain’s speech to the VFW yesterday, Thompson opted first to praise veterans -- old and young -- for their service. “Most Americans know that without the home of the brave, and folks that make it the home of the brave, there would be no land of the free. And we have you and the other people like you to thank for that."
It wasn't until about halfway through his speech that he addressed the current war in Iraq. He said, “Some people in this country apparently think that if we can pull out of Iraq, our problems will be over. You and I know better than that. We know that Iraq is an important front in this war, but we also know that if we appear to be divided and weak in this nation, that it is going to enable an enemy and make our country more dangerous.” He went on to further lament the nation's divisiveness on Iraq, calling for a “frank discussion” at “the highest levels, with both parties” because policy-makers will ultimately need “the support of the American people and their understanding of what’s at stake.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Kristin WilsonIn a media availability after his meeting today with Fed Chairman
Bernanke and Treasury Secretary
Paulson to discuss the nation's mortgage-market problems,
Dodd outlined his solutions to those problems. His recommendations included: 1) asking Treasury to lift portfolio caps at Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac; 2) the establishing a fund to keep people in their homes and prevent foreclosures of homes purchased with "bad mortgages"; and 3) strengthening markets for investors and businesses by keeping the markets liquid. He encouraged the Fed to use all of the tools available, but he did not call for a congressional mandate.
Dodd recognized that if people are given more time to repay their mortgages in order to avoid foreclosure, someone will have to pay for that, telling CNBC's John Harwood that "keeping people in their homes is very, very valuable." He pointed out "one foreclosure in an economically fragile neighborhood will cause the value of every other home in that square block to decline by as much as three to five-thousand dollars."
As mentioned earlier today, as the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Dodd is able to get meetings like this with Bernanke and Paulson. But was his photo-op today about the mortgage problems -- or about the 2008 presidential race?
We mentioned earlier that Romney is running a radio ad hitting Giuliani on immigration. Well, it seems Romney isn’t the only one going after the former New York City mayor.
NBC’s Joel Seidman reports: In his latest "Fred file" blog today, candidate-in-waiting, Fred Thompson, takes aim at Giuliani and his war on gun makers, back when Giuliani was mayor.
Thompson laments, "Unfortunately, New York is trying, again, to force its ways on the rest of us.”
The former Tennessee senator tries to shoot down an "activist federal judge from Brooklyn," who he says, "provided Mayor Giuliani's administration with the legal ruling it sought to sue gun makers."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray, Chuck Todd, and Andrew Merten
On his site now, Drudge has this provocative headline: "Obama Wife Slams Hillary?" It's taken from this Chicago Sun-Times story today. "At another stop, in Atlantic, Michelle said she travels with her husband in part 'to model what it means to have family values,' adding 'if you can't run your own house, you can't run the White House.' She didn't elaborate, but it could be interpreted as a swipe at the Clintons."
So, the story seems to have it all -- a reference to the Clinton's marital problems, more Obama vs. Clinton, etc. There's just one problem: This all seems to be a manufactured controversy. For one thing, what Michelle Obama said isn't anything new; in fact, it appears to be her stump speech. She said this on August 13, per the AP. And also on August 16, per the New York Times. In both instances, it appears she's talking about her own family and its values.
In a just-concluded conference call, Obama responded to the suggestion that his wife was slamming the Clintons. "She wasn't making any reference to that," he said. "If anybody who's been listening to Michelle on the stump, she's talked about the importance of family, and the need for our family to make sure that we're thinking about our kids during the process of this campaign. And she's repeated that in every stump speech. So, you know, there are no references beyond her point that we've had an administration that talks a lot about family values, but doesn't follow through on it, and part of the challenge for us in this campaign is making sure that we are talking the talk but also walking the walk. That's all it was referring to, and as I said, that's been a standard aspect of her speech for a long time.
In short, this appears to be a Drudge straw man; the challenge for news divisions (including our own) is whether they actually bite.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Andrew Merten
After Hillary Clinton yesterday said the troop surge is working, but it’s too late and Democrat Brian Baird came out and also said the surge is working, First Read asked Obama what he thinks during a conference call with reporters to announce the endorsement of Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA).
Obama noted that he hadn’t seen a transcript of exactly what Clinton said yesterday about the troop surge during her speech at the VFW, but added, “My assessment is that if we put an additional 30,000 of our outstanding troops into Baghdad, that that's going to quell some of the violence, short term. I don't think that there's ever been any doubt about that. And I don't think that there's any doubt that as long as US troops are present, that, you know, they are going to be doing outstanding work.
“It doesn't change the underlying assessment, which is that there's not a military solution to the problem in Iraq, and that the political dynamic in Iraq has not changed. The only thing that the Iraqi legislature appears to have agreed to, as the surge took place, was a motion to adjourn and go on vacation."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
She Said What? As we mentioned before, perhaps the biggest story so far in the Democratic presidential contest has been Hillary Clinton’s steady evolution from a hawk on the Iraq war to a dove. That transformation, in fact, has coincided directly with her rise in the national polls. But speaking yesterday at the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, she said something that might raise some Democrats’ eyebrows: that some elements of the troop surge are working. Per the
New York Times, “‘We’ve begun to change tactics in Iraq, and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar Province, it’s working,” [she said]... ‘We’re just years too late changing our tactics. We can’t ever let that happen again. We can’t be fighting the last war; we have to be preparing to fight the new war.’” Of course, she isn’t the only Democrat who has said the surge is producing some results (see Carl Levin’s statement), but can the Democratic presidential front-runner say this? Will she be alone among the Democratic presidential candidates to praise parts of the surge?
***
More VFW Politics: McCain followed Clinton yesterday in addressing the VFW convention. While she received a tepid, polite reception, he got plenty of applause. The same thing will probably occur today when Obama (who opposes the Iraq war) and Fred Thompson (who supports it) speak at the confab. What will Obama say about the surge? Somehow, we think it will be a bit different than what Clinton said. Before he addresses the VFW, Obama holds a conference call with reporters announcing the endorsement he’s picking up from freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), an Iraq war vet who opposes the war.
*** Worst Presidential Rollout Ever? Speaking of Thompson… If his campaign rollout couldn't get any worse -- see the Gucci shoes moment courtesy of Fox News -- the campaign has lost another senior staffer, this one from the communications shop. And now there’s a new FEC complaint claiming the candidate-to-be abused the "testing the waters" rule. But Thompson gets a fresh chance to prove he can give a good speech when he addresses the VFW convention. It should be a friendly audience that enjoys his aw-shucks approach. He's got a low bar of expectations to meet today. Can he exceed that bar?
VIDEO: NBC’s Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on FEC charges filed against former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., and Sen. Barack Obama’s call to ease Cuban restrictions.
*** Cuba Libre: A month ago, Obama’s response to how he’d deal with world dictators created the first true skirmish of the Democratic campaign. Today, he returns to the topic (in a way) by penning an op-ed in the Miami Herald that calls for unrestricted travel rights for Cuba Americans to Cuba, as well as normalized relations with a post-Castro Cuba -- if it begins to make some democratic changes. How will this policy play in Florida? Does it help him win over some second- and third-generation Cubans who want to visit their family members in Cuba more often? Or will the policy fire up the more conservative Cubans to fight Obama and hurt the Democrats in a general in the key swing state of Florida? Of course, Obama’s policy doesn’t seem that unpopular -- after all, who is opposed to engaging a Cuba that’s making democratic progress or allowing Cuban Americans to visit their relatives? But he’s the first presidential candidate, to our knowledge, to say this.
***
He Sells Sanctuary: Romney's up with a
new radio spot that one could argue is the first semi-negative attack ad by a major candidate. The ad doesn't mention Giuliani by name, but it attacks New York City for being a "sanctuary city" for illegal immigrants.
***
The Campaigner-In-Chief Returns: One of the more interesting political stories in the run-up to last year’s midterm elections involved every time an unpopular President Bush traveled to purple states (like Ohio and Pennsylvania) to raise money and campaign for Republican candidates, most of whom ended up losing on Election Day. Bush -- with even lower national approval ratings than he had before the midterms -- returns to electoral politics in the purple (yet still Dem-leaning) Minnesota, where he raises money at a closed-press event for vulnerable Sen. Norm Coleman (R), who’s up for re-election next year. Before this evening’s fundraiser, Bush holds a media avail in Canada with the leaders of Canada and Mexico. And then he heads to Minnesota attend a briefing on the collapsed bridge in Minneapolis.
***
On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden is in Iowa; Clinton is down in Chappaqua, NY; Dodd, in DC, meets with Federal chair Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson about the stock market’s fluctuations, especially regarding the problems in the mortgage market; Huckabee campaigns in South Carolina; Obama heads to New Hampshire after speaking at the VFW convention; and Romney stumps in Las Vegas and Reno, NV.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 13 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 60 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 77 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 88 days
Countdown to Iowa: 145 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 167 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 441 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 518 days
Clinton’s remarks yesterday at the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention might raise a few eyebrows. The
New York Times writes that Clinton said “that some elements of the strategy in Iraq appeared to be achieving success, but said a military solution was unattainable and the best way to honor the service of American troops was to ‘bring them home.’ ‘We’ve begun to change tactics in Iraq, and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar Province, it’s working,’ said Mrs. Clinton.”
More: “The remarks were notable because Mrs. Clinton has been a consistent critic of the Bush administration’s troop escalation in Iraq, and Republican presidential candidates have been seizing on signs of progress in Al Anbar Province in arguing against a troop withdrawal.”
The New York Daily News headlines Clinton and McCain speaking at the VFW convention with, “Hil wins cheers, McCain hearts at VFW.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) endorsed Clinton yesterday in Little Rock, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum reports. Clinton lauded Beebe's accomplishments in the state, highlighting his work with education and health care. With partners like Beebe, Clinton said she would be able to bring about the change needed in Washington. "There seemed to be a little bit of a debate on do we need change or do we need experience. Well, we need both, it's not either-or," she said. "And I'm going to take my 35 years of experience, and I'm going to put it to work on behalf of the change we need in Washington starting on day one."
DODD: The
Hartford Courant previews Dodd’s meeting today with Fed chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson on the mortgage-market problems. “The session, scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. in Dodd's Capitol Hill office, comes as markets nervously react to the recent credit crunch. The volatility was triggered by problems in the subprime mortgage market. Dodd has long thought the Fed could take some steps to improve its oversight of lenders and that Treasury could ease some regulatory requirements.”
A quick thought: As Senate Banking chairman, of course, Dodd has every right to call Bernanke in. But to announce this meeting in a campaign press release? Is he calling Bernanke to meet as a candidate or in his role as chairman? The Fed, after all, is supposed to be non-political.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The extensive
New Yorker profile of Giuliani wonders whether the things that made New York City residents both love and hate Giuliani make him appealing to conservatives in the South. "It is also possible that the rest of the country knows all it wishes to know about Giuliani. It was Giuliani who was depicted in the Times as imposing ‘the mores of Mayberry’ on the city. Stephen DiBrienza, the former City Councilman, says, ‘All the things that a lot of New Yorkers, myself included, hate about this guy are the things that are actually fuelling his campaign.’”
No wonder most strategists don't believe Giuliani could ever put New York in play (because he's still disliked to a degree in NYC), but he could put New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or even Connecticut in play. Overall, this is as thorough of a profile as we've seen of Giuliani this campaign season. Do take special note of the problems the author points out Giuliani could have regarding his gun stance.
Page Six reports that Giuliani will receive the British “Medal of Freedom” on September 19 from former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
CONTINUED >>
The AP’s Liz Sidoti looks at many of the gaffes and goofs of this election cycle. She writes that this year’s theme could very well be, "Oops! What I meant was ..."
New York City Mayor
Michael Bloomberg told Dan Rather for his HDNet program: "Nobody's going to elect me president of the United States. What I'd like to do is to be able to influence the dialogue. I'm a citizen."
The
New York Times says that Senate Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy “threatened on Monday to pursue contempt charges against the White House next month over its response to a subpoena for internal documents on the National Security Agency’s domestic surveillance program… Mr. Leahy’s comments ratcheted up the battle between Congressional Democrats and the White House over access to secret documents on the legal underpinnings of the eavesdropping program, which authorized the N.S.A. to listen in without a court warrant on Americans’ international communications.”
USA Today notes how House Democrats are winning the fundraising race so far for 2008. “The most vulnerable House Democrats — freshmen who won in districts that went for President Bush in 2004 — raised an average of $600,000 in the first six months of this year, according to campaign-finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. That's nearly double what Republican freshmen raised. If the trend continues, it will make it difficult for the GOP to reduce Democrats' 231-202 House majority.”
From NBC's Andy Merten
While Clinton took a policy-heavy approach to her remarks before the Veterans of Foreign Wars today, John McCain opted instead to spend most of his time attempting to relate to the audience as a fellow veteran. In fact, the word “Iraq” was not even uttered in the first 10 minutes of his speech.
“My grandfather was a naval aviator; my father a submariner,” he said, adding, “Their respect for me was one of the great ambitions of my life. And so it was nearly pre-ordained that I would find a place in my family’s profession, and that occupation would one day take me to war.” He went on to speak of the bonds shared by those who have served in war, saying they share an “appreciation for having sacrificed for a cause greater than ourselves” and “relief for having your courage and honor tested and affirmed in the fearsome crucible of combat.”
When McCain turned to the politics of the day, he repeated his familiar “wait for September” stance, saying General Petraeus must be given a chance to “salvage from the wreckage of our past mistakes a measure of stability for Iraq and the Middle East.” But he did lament the poor management of the war in the past, saying, “I, too, have been made sick at heart by the many mistakes made by civilian and military commanders.” And when he decried the inadequacies of Walter Reed and the VA, he received heavy applause.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Hillary Clinton was the first presidential candidate to address hundreds of members of the Veterans of Foreign Wars during this year's national convention in Kansas City, Mo. In a policy-heavy speech, Clinton outlined her plans to help veterans and highlighted her bi-partisan efforts to do so in the past. She waited until the end of her speech to address Iraq. Placing a hand upon her chest, Clinton acknowledged that some people will disagree with her for saying the best way to honor the troops is "beginning to bring them home."
"I think it is unacceptable for our troops to be caught in the crossfire of a sectarian civil war while the Iraqi government is on vacation," Clinton said. "I think it is time that the Iraqi government took responsibility for themselves and their country. Because the American people and our American military cannot want freedom and stability for the Iraqis more than they want it for themselves."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Liberal blogger
Lane Hudson has filed a complaint against Fred Thompson with the Federal Election Commission, accusing the “testing-the-waters” candidate of violating election law. Hudson is the same activist who posted instant messages between former Rep. Mark Foley and a congressional page.
The AP reports: “The law prohibits anyone who is ‘testing the waters’ from hoarding the money for use during his actual campaign. Potential candidates also cannot refer to themselves as candidates, can't run ads that publicize their intention to campaign or take steps to qualify for the ballot in a primary or caucus state.”
Thompson has 15 days to respond to the complaint.
From NBC's John Yang and Jay Blackman
Rep.
Bob Filner (D-CA) was involved in an altercation last night at Dulles Airport. He was allegedly angered by the amount of time it was taking to get his luggage and tried to push his way through the United Airlines baggage claim office. The release below is from Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority.
“Around 6 PM on Sunday, Aug. 19, Airports Authority Police were called to the United Airlines bag claim office at Dulles for a report of an incident with a passenger regarding his baggage. The individual allegedly attempted to enter an area authorized for airline employees only, pushed aside the employee's outstretched arm and refused to leave the area when asked by an airline employee. When MWAA officers arrived a few minutes later, the man had left the office and was waiting in the area of a bag carousel. Officers interviewed him and witnesses and released him. Before the individual left the airport, officers advised him that the airline employee would be pursuing charges. The airline employee appeared before a Loudoun County Magistrate later that evening and a summons was obtained charging Robert Filner (DOB 09/04/1942) with assault and battery, a class 1 misdemeanor. Mr. Filner is scheduled to appear in Loudoun County General District Court on October 2.”
**** UPDATE **** NBC's Ken Strickland has the response from Filner's press office in a written statement: "Congressman Bob Filner is on his way to Iraq, visiting our troops, and will have a full statement when he returns. Suffice it to say now, that the story that has appeared in the press is factually incorrect-and the charges are ridiculous."
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Politico has the scoop:
Fred Thompson spokeswoman Burson Snyder has resigned from the soon-to-be campaign. "Snyder follows a handful of other Thompson aides out the door as the organization struggles to find its footing in the run-up to the former senator's anticipated post-Labor Day launch."
"The longtime communications director to House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, Snyder had been brought on to the "testing-the-waters" committee in June and had been slated to handle the day-to-day press operation. But sources familiar with the situation say she saw her role diminished when Linda Rozett was brought on to serve as the committee's communications director and when it was announced that former FOX producer Jim Mills would also come on board to work in the press shop."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
After returning from a two-day visit to Iraq, bipartisan members of the Senate Armed Services Committee --
Carl Levin and
John Warner -- say the surge has produced some results and has "provided a degree of 'breathing space' for Iraqi politicians" to make political compromises. But these senators warned they're "not optimistic about the prospects for those compromises."
They issued a joint press release today. "Given the performance of the Iraqi political leadership to date -- we remain extremely cautious in our expectations, as does our distinguished U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, Ambassador Ryan Crocker," they wrote. In several meeting with Iraqi leaders, "we witnessed a great deal of apprehension regarding the capabilities of the current Iraqi government to shed its sectarian biases and act in a unifying manner.
They said that in the absence of political reconciliation may be laying to groundwork for additional problems. "We may be inadvertently helping to create another militia which will have to be dealt with in the future."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
The Guns Of August Didn’t Fire: Overall, yesterday’s debate that had "August" written all over it, meaning the candidates decided not to take advantage of opportunities to engage. Instead, at almost every opportunity, the front-runners took pains to NOT engage, even when questions from the moderator tried to create spats. So in the absence of a "moment," it's hard not to declare Clinton the winner of this debate because, like boxing, if the champ doesn't get knocked out, then the champ is still the champ. This is not to say Obama and Edwards did poorly in this debate. To the contrary, both seemed more presidential than in previous debates, and many post-debate analyses had Obama as the winner (which shows that Obama has come a long way since that first debate in Orangeburg). But neither seemed comfortable trying to take down the front-runner: They took veiled shots at Clinton but in a way that was, well, "Iowa nice."
***
A Cautious Field: Biden -- not surprisingly -- seemed to have helped himself the most, followed by -- surprisingly -- Richardson. Of course, Richardson had a VERY low bar to surpass since he's been anywhere from bad to disastrous; Richardson was neither bad nor disastrous today. All of the candidates seemed well aware that the main audience for this debate was Iowa Democrats, and recent history has shown Iowa Democrats don't like sharp elbows. So that may explain some of the cautiousness that gripped the entire Democratic field.
***
Enough Is Enough: The decision to limit the number of debates and forums Obama will agree to for the rest of this calendar year is something that will upset a number of key Democratic interest groups. It seems a day doesn't go by that some left-of-center group doesn't pop up with a forum idea. Four months ago, we would have guessed it would have been Clinton -- not Obama -- who called for a halt to these things. But since Clinton has seen her ratings with Dems go up with every debate or forum appearance, she seems to have decided the more exposure she gets the more comfortable Democrats get with her. These forums have become her national listening tour.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Barack Obama rejecting offers for any additional debates.
*** Biden’s Moment: Will Biden ever get his moment? He is the Democrats' Huckabee -- meaning that he seems to perform well at every debate or forum, but doesn't have the resources to do anything more with it. With his first TV ads now airing in Iowa, we'll be watching closely to see if he can move the needle. If he can't, then our guess is that Biden will wonder how long he can go on.
*** Nunn Of The Above: Don’t miss the news that former Sen. Sam Nunn (D) -- remember him? -- might be interested in running for president as an independent. Nunn’s interest raises this question: Why haven’t other political has-beens expressed more interest in a possible 2008 candidacy? What better way to get back in the news to push a pet issue? In Nunn's case, the pet issue is a big one: nukes.
*** VFW Politics: In Kansas City today, Clinton addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention, and then McCain follows her. Obama and Fred Thompson speak to the group tomorrow. And President Bush goes before the group on Wednesday. As the Washington Post puts it, “The VFW convention is not a standard campaign stop, according to VFW National Commander Gary Kurpius, and he said it is unprecedented to have candidates address the organization before winning the nomination.” Do either Clinton or Obama get booed?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Huckabee campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama does the same; and Tommy Thompson -- who no longer is in the race -- appears on Comedy Central’s Daily Show.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 14 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 61 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 78 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 89 days
Countdown to Iowa: 146 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 168 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 442 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 519 days
The Washington Post: “Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) drew fire from his rivals for his relative lack of political experience, but amid subtle digs from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson over his approach to foreign policy, he calmly took the heat.” Also: “The candidates touched on the subject of whether Clinton was too polarizing to win the general election, as outgoing White House adviser Karl Rove postulated last week and reiterated on three Sunday talk shows.”
VIDEO: Presidential hopeful Barack Obama on opponents questioning if he’s ready to be president.
The Boston Globe says the Democrats “battled yesterday over how they would direct the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq in a debate … that largely stayed clear of personal attacks.”
The New York Times on the subdued nature of the debate: "But even in their disagreements, their voices came across as far more subdued and measured, particularly compared with side-by-side appearances earlier this month. As one sign of this, Democrats pointed to the performance of John Edwards as a reflection of a calculation that the kind of spirited attacks that won applause at a labor debate at Soldier Field this month in Chicago might not sit well on a Sunday morning with Iowa Democrats."
CONTINUED >>
We got an interesting reminder in our email inbox this weekend from the West Virginia GOP, which reminded the GOP presidential campaigns that they have to register for their unique internet Feb. 5 primary by Sept. 1. There are quite a few states whose deadlines are coming up in a hurry. In particular, Fred Thompson will have to gear up immediately to get ready for many of these deadlines. Is his team ready?
GIULIANI: Watching the former New York mayor handle questions about his personal life, one can't help but notice his response is very similar to the one George W. Bush pushed when he was constantly asked about his past indiscretions. Bush would acknowledge it without adding fuel to the fire with his "when I was young and irresponsible, I was young and irresponsible." Giuliani does a similar deflection with his past but acknowledging he made
mistakes but also indicating he won't talk about it. "I’ll talk about it appropriately and in a way to preserve as much as I can the privacy of my family and my children, which I think any decent person would,” he told reporters at a stop at a diner here on Friday.
The New York Times’ Nagourney looks at how a city slicker like Giuliani plays in Iowa. "He seems a lot more attuned to the rhythms and culture of Iowa than he did a few months ago."
CONTINUED >>
So is Karl Rove using reverse psychology on Democrats regarding Clinton v. Obama? The Los Angeles Times' Wallsten lays out the case that Rove may be attacking Clinton as a way to get Democrats to rally around her because secretly the GOP fears Obama. Wallsten notes that the Bush campaign -- in 2004 -- did a similar thing. "With his Southern base, charismatic style and populist message, Edwards, they believed, could be a real threat to Bush's reelection. But instead of attacking Edwards, Rove's team opened fire at Kerry. Their thinking went like this, Dowd explained: Democrats, in a knee-jerk reaction to GOP attacks, would rally around Kerry, whom Rove considered a comparatively weak opponent, and make him the party's nominee. Thus Bush would be spared from confronting Edwards, the candidate Republican strategists actually feared most."
VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports Karl Rove may be leaving the White House, but he is not letting up on his criticism of the Democrats, especially front-runner Hillary Clinton.
"Is Rove playing a similar game against Clinton? Is he trying to stampede Democrats into nominating her, having concluded that Obama, Edwards or someone else would pose a stiffer challenge to the Republican nominee?"
CONTINUED >>
If they build it, the candidates will come, right? That was the claim by the founders of Unity '08, the group trying to recruit a bipartisan presidential ticket. Well, the first major elder statesman outside of New York City has
acknowledged his interest: former Georgia Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn. But if he runs, he'll do so as an independent. "It's a possibility, not a probability," said Nunn, now the head of a nonprofit organization out to reduce the threat posed by nuclear, biological and chemical weaponry. "My own thinking is, it may be a time for the country to say, 'Timeout. The two-party system has served us well, historically, but it's not serving us now.'"
Nunn said he's not likely to make up his mind until next year, probably after the early rush of presidential primaries have produced de facto nominees for both parties. He said the decision will depend largely on what he hears from the current candidates. The only certainty, he said, is that he won't be anybody's candidate for vice president."
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times op-ed by eight members of the 82nd Airborne division stationed in Iraq will be very difficult for the White House and other supporters of the surge to push back on. "The claim that we are increasingly in control of the battlefields in Iraq is an assessment arrived at through a flawed, American-centered framework. Yes, we are militarily superior, but our successes are offset by failures elsewhere. What soldiers call the ‘battle space’ remains the same, with changes only at the margins. It is crowded with actors who do not fit neatly into boxes: Sunni extremists, Al Qaeda terrorists, Shiite militiamen, criminals and armed tribes. This situation is made more complex by the questionable loyalties and Janus-faced role of the Iraqi police and Iraqi Army, which have been trained and armed at United States taxpayers’ expense."
In Montebello, Canada, Bush today meets with the prime minister of Canada and the president of Mexico.
The
Washington Post front-pages how Bush’s call to promote democracy around the world has largely faltered. “Two and a half years after Bush pledged in his second inaugural address to spread democracy around the world, the grand project has bogged down in a bureaucratic and geopolitical morass, in the view of many activists… Many in his administration never bought into the idea, and some undermined it, including his own vice president. The Iraq war has distracted Bush and, in some quarters, discredited his aspirations. And while he focuses his ire on bureaucracy, Bush at times has compromised the idealism of that speech in the muddy reality of guarding other U.S. interests.”
To watch Rove’s appearance on Meet the Press yesterday, click here.
The Politico also does a wrap of Rove’s appearances on the Sunday shows.
The
Washington Post looks at the early ads the Democrats and Republicans are running in the 2008 battle for Congress. “Democrats and Republicans are mounting a fierce battle to shape voter impressions of Congress during August's political lull, convinced that they must define the story line of the 2008 congressional election before voters are swamped by the presidential campaign.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- There were a lot more people in general and candidates
themselves in the spin room for the Democrats than there were for the
Republicans.
Of the candidates, Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich (and adoring wife in
tow) all stopped in the spin room for an extended length. Edwards was
also accessible outside, as he did one TV interview and moved on to a
post-debate party next door to the spin room. Obama stopped by Planet
Subs to meet supporters and Clinton also attended a debate watching
party in Des Moines.
Elizabeth Edwards was in the spin room and accesible for interviews.
Howard Dean was there for the DNC, though he wouldn't comment on what
some analysts have seen as a parallels between his 2004 run and Obama's
campaign excitement. He is, however, optimistic about Democrats'
congressional and Senate seat chances in Minnesota, New Hampshire and
Colorado.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Overall, this is a debate that had "August" written all over it, meaning the candidates decided not to take advantage of opportunities to engage. Instead, at almost every opportunity, the frontrunners took pains to NOT engage even when questions from the moderator tried to create spats. So in the absence of a "moment," it's hard not to declare Clinton the winner of this debate because, like boxing, if the champ doesn't get knocked out, then the champ is still the champ.
This is not to say Obama and Edwards did poorly in this debate. To the contrary, both seemed more presidential than in previous debates but neither seemed comfortable trying to take down the frontrunner. Edwards and Obama took veiled shots at Clinton but in a way that was, well, "Iowa nice."
One glaring missed opportunity for Obama to show contrast with Clinton came, not from a moderator question, but from a voter question who asked about a time when the candidate didn't say everything they thought. Remember, Clinton critiqued Obama for saying everything he thought. If the places were reversed, Clinton would not have missed an opportunity like that. This is where Obama's inexperience as a politician shows. He's just not very tactical, which to some may seem like a refreshing change but in primary politics, isn't a recipe for success. Frankly, it was a moment of political campaign inexperience. Tactically, these debates do show that Obama hasn't had many tough campaigns, which may explain why he misses opportunities like this one.
Overall, Biden seemed to have helped himself the most, followed, surprisingly, by Richardson. Of course, Richardson had a VERY low bar to surpass since he's been anywhere from bad to disastrous; Richardson was neither bad nor disastrous today.
All of the candidates seemed well aware that the main audience for this debate was Iowa Democrats and recent history has shown Iowa Democrats don't like sharp elbows so that may explain some of the cautiousness that gripped the entire Democratic field.
See the next post for more detailed "tape delayed live-blogging" thoughts as I was watching the debate.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The following were my virtual live thoughts while watching the debate in the Washington, DC-area an hour later than folks in Iowa were watching.
-- Poll Introductions: Seriously, it was bad form in their first debate and it was bad form in this debate. The bad form? Introducing the candidates in the order of their poll ratings. Unless you plan to use the poll to trim the field, was it really the right way to introduce these candidates? Doesn't it reinforce the INCORRECT notion that the media is obsessed with the horse race?
-- Primarily About Obama or Clinton? The first set of questions reinforce this notion that I've argued before: This primary campaign seems to be more of a referendum about Obama's experience, rather than Clinton's electability. I'm still not sure if this is a good thing for Clinton or a good thing for Obama. Ultimately, a candidate does hope a campaign is a referendum on them, keeps the candidate in control of the message. Then again, it's sometimes VERY difficult for a candidate to win a campaign that is a referendum on said candidate.
-- Iowa Nice Watch: This was interesting watching the candidates answer the first question about Obama's experience. None of the candidates wanted to "go there." But the awkward silences and implications WERE there. Both Richardson and Biden, in particular, seemed to WANT to criticize Obama on experience but were uncomfortable taking a shot. Perhaps both are gun shy because they've gotten into verbal trouble a few times this campaign.
-- Always An Eye On The General: Clinton's defense of what she says and doesn't say about her foreign policy on the campaign trail sounds a bit like the Republican criticism of Democrats in campaigns past that what is said on the campaign trail is seen/heard overseas.
-- Favoring The Frontrunners: If I were supporters of any candidate NOT named Clinton and Obama, I would be infuriated with the first two questions of this debate.
-- Take Take Electability Critics: Clinton dropped a little news at the debate noting she would be getting the endorsement of Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe. AP's Ron Fournier may have found a lot of elected Democrats to say on background they fear Clinton at the top of the ticket but I am struck by the number of these moderate Democrats who are publicly backing her now.
-- Poor Dennis: It took ABC 25 minutes to get to Dennis Kucinich and the candidate let him know about it. Interesting that Kucinich kind of, sort of, took a shot at Edwards by dropping the name Fortress.
-- Free Media: Biden got a favor from ABC by airing his Iraq ad for all the Sunday morning world to see.
-- Halftime Thought: Despite the hype, it appears none of the frontrunners were interested in engaging each other too harshly. ABC tried, but the candidates didn't cooperate. Edwards, about 40 minutes in, underscored this decision by the frontrunners when he praised all of his colleagues on stage.
-- He May Not Be A Scientist, But... While I'm in the camp that Richardson permanently damaged himself over the last 3 months, it should be acknowledged that I think he did his best job yet at a debate, which was a low bar since he had some very poor debate and forum appearances in the past.
-- From Delaware To Delaware County, Iowa: Biden, once again, is coming across as the straightest talker, but the guy just can't get campaign traction. If Biden hangs in there long enough and Richardson fades a bit (due to his numerous gaffes), I wouldn't be surprised if Biden is the guy that surprisingly rises in Iowa.
-- Why The 2nd Tier Matters: Watching these debates for both parties, I am struck at how necessary the 2nd tier candidates are. They represent, in each party, a specific view in the liberal or conservative rainbow and the eventual nominee will be influenced by these folks, whether it's Kucinich on the war and trade or Tancredo on immigration.
-- Late Debate Thoughts: All of the candidates seemed aware of the phrase "Iowa nice." It's something Iowans pride themselves on; they punish negativity and it seems all of the frontrunners decided to show themselves as "Iowa nice."
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- First Read is about to head into the spin room, but here are some of my quick thoughts.
Clinton was again solid, no gaffes as usual. She is tough and well prepared.
Edwards had an OK debate as well. Is his goal to tag team Clinton with Obama? He forced the issue of lobbying again, trying to bill himself and Obama as the outsiders and Clinton the Washington establishment. He did it implicitly and only named Clinton to say she takes lobbying money -- unlike himself and Obama. The question may become who will get the traction as the true outsider? Edwards or Obama. At some point, that distinction has to happen. They don't want to split the "outsider" vote, thereby potentially giving the victory to Clinton. Look for even sharper distinction as the months move forward between Edwards and Obama.
Obama faced a tough test with the first question, and he answered it well. He used humor with his bumper cars line, but again showed he has the backbone to stand up to criticism. He looked much more comfortable in this debate. He was smoother, clearer with his answers and seems to be growing into his own political skin on stage with the other candidates.
Biden was strong on Iraq again. The more he can talk about that issue, the stronger he is.
Richardson had a better debate today than he has had in the past. He looked more comfortable, prepared and self-deprecating humor at times. But it will be tough for him or Biden to pull themselves up and penetrate that first tier.
Dodd was notably second, if not third tier and it will be tough for him as well to pull himself up. He didn't have a terrible debate, but that fly is a bad image.
Kucinich and Gravel were left to the outside. Gravel was weaker, misstating his message, even confusing Spain with Iran before correcting himself. He was tangential and just seems like an outsider throwing pebbles.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- As Dodd was answering the decisive moment question, there was clearly a fly crawling around his white hair. Yikes. We'll see that on YouTube. He didn't even bat at it. How would he know though?
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- Richardson is the only one who invoked 9/11 throughout the debate. He said it was his decisive moment for getting back into politics.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- Performance-based pay
Dodd: Does not support performance based pay. Wants to reform No Child Left Behind and put in incentives to get teachers into inner-city schools.
Obama: Obama told the National Education Association at their convention that he is for performance-based pay. I think we can implement a performance-based system. It has to be developed with teachers. Teachers across the board have to be paid more. He cited his sister who’s a teacher.
Clinton: Wants school-based incentive pay, not necessarily incentive pay for individual teachers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- An e-mail question was on when the candidates have in their life not told the whole truth.
Biden: I am sure there are times My problem isn’t saying what I think. It’s saying too much of what I think
Obama: Didn’t exactly answer the question, instead talked about fuel efficiency standards and about needing to say tough things to interest groups.
Edwards: Edwards apparently was against the war while he was for it. “I was wrong to vote for this war.” I had huge internal conflict at the time about giving George Bush this huge authority. What I didn’t express was that internal conflict, because I didn’t trust Bush.
Clinton: She didn’t express something she clearly hasn’t told the whole truth about, which is what the question was. She said she agreed with Edwards to an extent on Iraq and said she would have never diverted attention to Iraq.
Richardson: I am making about one mistake a week. You know, I make misstatements. I am not the scripted candidate.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- The first break comes just before 9amCT after a question on agriculture and NAFTA.
During the break, that same health care ad seemingly against Obama before the debate, ran asking what a cardboard cut out of Clinton would do about healthcare.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- At 8:45, question from e-mail. Issue of God, religion and the power of prayer.
Clinton: I believe in the power of prayer. I am very dependant on my faith and prayer is a big part of that.
Dodd: The power of prayer is important to all of us.
Edwards: I have prayed most of my life. I pray daily now. I prayed before m y 16-year-old son died. I prayed when Elizabeth got cancer. There are some things are beyond our control. You can’t prevent bad things from happening through prayer. He also invoked Christ.
Gravel: Often the ones who pray want to go to war. What we need is love.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- Biden seems to dominate the topic of Iraq. He was strong on talking about how we end the war is very strong. Audience seemed enraptured when he discussed what would happen if the war is not ended correctly.
Stephanopoulos asked where Obama stands and he deferred to Biden.
Obama said, "I think Joe is right." Obama then got easy applause when bringing back the "authorizing this war" line. He said on the experience issue, no one had more experience than Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He criticized "conventional wisdom" again. But Stephanopoulos asked if there's a difference between what he's proposing and what Clinton's proposing. He said we can't keep writing blank checks. Does that mean he'd support cutting off the funds?
Kucinich repeated that he wants to cut off funds and criticized the Democratic-controlled Congress for not cutting off the funds.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- Edwards: It would be hard to pull troops out of Iraq by December, but can do it in 9-12 months. Any Democratic candidate will end this war, he said to great applause. The differences between all of us are very small. And sounded like Clinton in an earlier debate, who said the differences between us and the Republicans are large.
From NBC's Andrew MertenFirst question to Kucinich is 26 minutes in, and he's not too happy
about it. "This debate is insufficient," he said, adding, "You're
trying to polarize people out of this race."
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- ABC backed into the Iraq debate with Biden’s new ad in Iowa, up this morning.
In his ad, Biden had a serious demeanor on Iraq, describing dead bodies being sent back and that he has a plan to change the war in Iraq.
Richardson on Iraq: Said he wants to split the country in three. Richardson said he’d like to go through Turkey, in part. Richardson wants troops pulled immediately.
Biden: When given the chance to discuss Iraq, Biden sounds strong on the topic. Well informed, as usual. He shines when he can highlight his foreign policy experience. Said his colleagues are coming around to his plan.
The Des Moines Register’s Yepsen wanted to make Clinton the decider on who’s right, Biden or Richardson. She sided with Biden. “Joe is absolutely right,” she said. Troops cannot be pulled out immediately, she said. “We do have to do it as carefully and responsibly as possible.”
Is Richardson wrong in saying they can be out at the end of the year. She says based on her conversations she’s had with military personnel, “Joe is right.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- Dodd called this selective ethics, because it's about how you voted on bankruptcy and a host of other topics. He said he's for public financing.
Kucinich: He said this debate is insufficient. You're trying to polarize people out of the race, and instead tried to discuss health care. And Kucinich brought up the word Fortress -- not related to sub-prime or Edwards' investment, but is he trying to bring it up to remind Stephanopoulos to bring it up?
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- On whether or not Clinton weighs down the party, as Rove suggests and the AP’s Ron Fournier explored, Obama
All of these candidates are capable. And anyone who wins this primary will win the general.
In response to Stephanopoulos asking if he suggests Clinton is part of the problem of Washington insiders.
We need someone to break out of the political patterns of the last 20 years.
Edwards: I have a slightly different view. In 2006, the Democrats stood for change. When we become the status quo and not fundamental change in 2008, we’re a loser. He then said we have to be fundamental change by not negotiating with lobbyists. Sen Clinton both as First Lady and
She’s been in Washington a long time. Why don’t we all make an absolutely clear statement that we are the party of the people – not of Washington insiders. I’ve asked the other candidates to do that, and so far Clinton hasn’t done that.
She deflected the question on whether or not she’d take lobbying money and instead talked about Karl Rove and that she’s most capable of taking Republicans on.
I’m looking forward to taking on the Republicans.
I believe we have to change Washington. I took them on, she said. But there’s this artificial distinction – don’t take money from lobbyists but take it from those who employ the lobbyists. Go after a better agenda of reform.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- Obama said there was "no difference" between what he said about use of nuclear weapson and Clinton speaking on using them against Iran. Al Qaeda is in the mountains, everyone acknowledges that, Obama said.
This is part of the problem in politics, Obama said. We have gamesmanship and manufacture problems and differences.
Edwards first time to speak 15 minutes in. "How about a little hope and optimism," Edwards said. "Where did it go?"
Edwards said Musharraf is not a great leader, but he’s stability. I think Sen. Obama’s entitled to express his view. It’s not shocking that Washington insiders would attack him. I think he adds something to this debate.
But he stopped short of completely tag teaming Clinton. He said we shouldn’t talk about hypotheticals when it comes to nuclear weapons.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- ABC making this an Obama-Clinton debate. Edwards will not be happy with this.
Is Obama ready to be president and is Clinton the change candidate.
As soon as I wake up I’ll answer your question. She then did not take the bait and go after Obama. We have a great group of candidates. You don’t have to be against anyone. You can choose who you are for. Stephanopoulos went back at her on her “naïve and inexperienced” comments. She deflected saying we had a specific disagreement.
Went at Dodd on his comments on Obama. Do you think Obama is ready to be president? He also said it was about a speech in which he raised a hypothetical situation. I thought it was irresponsible because the only thing between us and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons is Musharraf. “You’re not going to have time in January 09 to get ready for this job.” He then drew on his own experience.
Biden: I think he’s a wonderful guy. No. 1 it was about Pakistan. We have no Pakistan policy. We have a Musharraf policy. We should be encouraging free elections. Stephanopoulos tried to draw Biden out further with his comments. He said he stands by his statement.
Richardson: I think Obama represents change. Sen. Clinton represents experience. With me you get both. Change and Experience. He was strong with this answer. Stephanopoulos: is he ready?
Obama: To prepare for this debate, I rode in the bumper cars at the state fair. That got great applause and smiles all around. I do think there’s a substantive difference between myself and Sen. Clitnon when it comes to meeting with our adversaries. If we have Osama bin laden in our sights, we should take him out before he’s able to kill another 3,000 people. I think that’s common sense. I think we need a fundamental change to get us out of the hole Bush has put us in.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- This morning at 6:15 am, there was a Clinton ad. Now, two minutes before the debate, an Obama ad. There have been several health care ads, and lawns signs out here saying I'm a Health Care voter.
There was an attack ad by California Nurses on Obama asking why no single payer health care system.
Two weeks ago, Romney was the only candidate with an ad up, including the one just before the debate.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroDES MOINES -- In the local ABC affiliate’s coverage this morning, they revealed the new Washington Post/ABC poll that has the three front runners in a statistical dead heat. Obama leads at 27%, Clinton and Edwards tie at 26%. Remember that during the GOP debate, the Republicans were introduced by their poll numbers. Expect the same thing and for Stephanopoulos to try and draw them out on distinctions between each other.
Expect the Democrats to try and draw those distinctions as they have in the endless round of forums and debates they have participated in in the past two weeks. By the way, Obama’s campaign posted on its Web site yesterday that Obama is putting a cap on how many more of these debates and forums he will attend. He will only attend the five more DNC sanctioned debates that are already scheduled.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES -- First Read is here in Des Moines, checking out some of
the Iowa State Fair fare and liveblogging the Democratic debate like we
did two weeks ago at the Republican debate. I sampled the equally
artery clogging deep-fried Oreos and deep-fried Snickers bars on a
stick, and my impartial analysis says score one for the Snickers bar.
To the scene. It’s not raining here yet this morning like it was at the
GOP debate, but it is already a humid 77 degrees at 7:30 am. On the
street across the street from the Drake University campus, Clinton,
Biden, Obama Dodd and Edwards supporters are out in full force.
Clinton’s team is a serious, organized, loud operation – louder than
any of the other groups, though Obama’s supporters are a close second.
It feels more like a football game in a way. Ringing out in the air
were “Go Obama” versus “Hil-la-RY” chants with a kickoff-like hum, the
result of the “DOOOOOOODDD” calls. (Pronounced with an A like father.)
The Clinton people have whistles and cheer leaders out front.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Edwards reiterated his commitment to divest in companies that profit on home foreclosures while traveling in Iowa today. During an on-camera interview with a reporter on his campaign bus, he said he is “strongly against” the foreclosure of 34 New Orleans homes by a company with which he has financial ties.
"I have the strongest national predatory lending -- most aggressive national predatory lending law," Edwards said. "And I will not have my family's money in a fund that does that, and I'm going to try to do everything I can to help these people."
From NBC's Andrew Merten and Carrie Dann
Having made poverty alleviation a central pillar throughout his campaign for the presidency, Edwards has spent plenty of time on the stump decrying the practice of predatory lending. But today’s Wall Street Journal reports that Edwards, who chose New Orleans as the sight to officially announce his campaign and later kick off his three-day poverty tour, has heavy financial ties with subprime-lending units of a large investment group that has brought foreclosure suits to 34 Gulf coast homes.
VIDEO:
John Edwards talks about predatory lending after touring a Cleveland neighborhood in July.Edwards has about $16 million invested in Fortress Investment Group, LLC, and worked for them from late 2005 through 2006, the Journal reports. When contacted by the paper yesterday, he promised to divest himself from any company profiting from the foreclosures. But the news may be damaging to Edwards’ populist campaign, given his strong language against the practice on the campaign trail.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC News' Chuck Todd
According to sources inside both parties, the two state parties in Michigan have agreed to move the state's primary -- legislatively -- to Jan. 15. This is a compromise date out of respect for Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, who really wanted to move the primary to Jan. 8. Others wanted the primary on Jan. 22 as a way to, essentially, play ball with the other early states. There was a nice window being created for a Jan. 22, 2008 event. But by moving to Jan. 15, this will put pressure on the other early states to either entertain a December event or lobby the two national parties to not sanction Michigan at all.
The state senate is going to move a bill next week and it will be legislatively driven; the state will pay for the primary, not the two parties.
Bottom line: Michigan holding its primary on Jan. 15 means New Hampshire's window to hold a primary has been moved up further to Jan. 8. And then there's Iowa, who now could face a decision to let New Hampshire leap frog it or somehow go 2-3 days before New Hampshire (say, on Sat. Jan. 5) or in December -- something the governor of Iowa said he didn't want to do.
CONTINUED >>
***UPDATE*** Snow says he will leave before Bush
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
At the White House press gaggle this morning at President Bush’s Crawford ranch, administration spokesman Gordon Johndroe was asked about Tony Snow telling Hugh Hewitt he might not stay at the White House to the end of the Bush's term.
“You know, I had not heard that Tony had made those comments,” Johndroe said after he was asked if Snow had submitted his resignation. “I'm not aware of any resignation being submitted or anything like that.”
Snow told conservative Hewitt on his radio show, “I’ve already made it clear I’m not going to be able to go the distance, but that’s primarily for financial reasons. I’ve told people when my money runs out, then I’ve got to go.”
Snow said to expect at least “a couple” more White House resignations fairly soon. White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolton “thinks there are probably a couple coming up in the next month or so,” Snow told Hewitt.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Busted? A front-page New York Times story notes that on at least three occasions, Giuliani -- responding to accusations that New York City failed to protect the health of Ground Zero workers -- has boasted that he faced similar risks himself.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first Read on Giuliani's Ground Zero claims.
But: "A complete record of Mr. Giuliani’s exposure to the site is not available for the chaotic six days after the attack, when he was a frequent visitor. But an exhaustively detailed account from his mayoral archive, revised after the events to account for last-minute changes on scheduled stops, does exist for the period of Sept. 17 to Dec. 16, 2001. It shows he was there for a total of 29 hours in those three months, often for short periods or to visit locations adjacent to the rubble. In that same period, many rescue and recovery workers put in daily 12-hour shifts."
"Asked to reconcile what the records show with Mr. Giuliani’s public comments about the extent of his exposure to the site, his campaign provided a written statement from Joseph J. Lhota, a former deputy mayor. 'Hundreds of thousands of people around the country and the world saw Rudy Giuliani’s steadfast and determined leadership firsthand at a time when we needed it most,' the statement said. 'In the days surrounding September 11th, the safety and health of all those involved in the search and recovery efforts was Mayor Giuliani’s No. 1 one priority. Make no mistake, it is the very same concern Mayor Giuliani continues to express today when it comes to all those who have made tremendous sacrifices at ground zero.'"
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new poll of likely Democratic Iowa caucus-goers -- sponsored by the nonpartisan anti-global poverty ONE coalition -- shows Edwards leading with 30%, followed by Clinton at 22%, Obama at 18%, and Richardson at 13%.
The survey, conducted by Peter D. Hart Research Associates (D) and McLaughlin & Associates (R), has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.3 percentage points.
From NBC's Andrew Merten
While visiting the Iowa state fair in Des Moines today,
Edwards was asked by a reporter whether or not he agreed with
Karl Rove's assessment of
Clinton as a "fatally flawed candidate." Edwards dodged the question, a bit, saying, "I agree with almost nothing that Karl Rove says." A reporter then asked if he agrees if Obama is the best candidate to bring the country together, to which he replied, "I will be the best candidate to bring the changes this country needs."
After meeting with reporters, the former senator autographed everything from campaign signs and newspapers to baseballs. He also followed in the steps of Clinton and indulged in some state fair food, opting for chicken on a stick.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Rep. Chip Pickering, R-Miss., is announcing he's resigning from Congress to work on K Street, becoming the latest House Republican to either vacate his seat or decide not to seek re-election in 2008.
This news -- reported by the Cook Political Report and shared with First Read -- comes after word that former Speaker Dennis Hastert and Rep. Deborah Pryce will not seek another term in office.
Pickering was seen as the heir apparent to the next GOP Senate opening in Mississippi. Does this mean that Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., has hinted to Pickering that he'll be seeking re-election?
*** UPDATE *** The Cook team is getting conflicting signals over whether Pickering is resigning or whether he won't be seeking another term (however, with Pickering heading to work on K Street, he might want to leave Congress before the lobbying/ethics reform legislation is signed into law). But one thing is clear: Another GOP-held House seat is being vacated.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At last night's fundraiser with Warren Buffett in red-state Nebraska, Obama received a glowing introduction from the billionaire and pointed questions from attendees. After Buffet introduced Obama as a leader who "can lead us in the right place," Obama, who was joined by his wife and children, called Buffet an "unbelievable friend" and "one of the people I listen to." Obama and Clinton are vying for Buffett’s full support. Buffett held a fundraiser for Clinton also on June 26.
One question from the crowd was, "Why you, and not Mrs. Clinton?" After a brief pause, Obama answered the man by discussing the "very strong field on the democratic side" and credited it to a general spirit of change. He praised Clinton, calling her "smart," "tough," and "capable," and said she "would be a capable president." He resisted the chance to say anything bad about Clinton and instead focused on why he entered the race, stating he can both win the election and get results in Washington by uniting the country.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Romney spoke to the Greer Chamber of Commerce in South Carolina today, outlining several economic policy plans and repeating his familiar mantra of increasing the strength of American military, economy and families. He slipped in a couple of shots at McCain and Giuliani for deciding not to compete in the Ames straw poll, but he reserved most of his political punches for the top three Democratic presidential contenders.
“If you listen to Hillary Clinton talk about the economy, her view is that taxes are too low – that individuals should be paying higher taxes and that corporations should be paying higher taxes,” he said, warning that an increase in corporate taxes would quickly drive companies’ operations overseas. He went on to tout his tax relief plan for the middle class, in which tax rates on savings interest, capital gains, and mutual fund dividends would be “absolutely zero.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
And you thought Elizabeth Edwards was all fired up.
At a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa, Michelle Obama showed just how fiery we can expect her to be as her husband's battle for the Democratic nomination heats up.
"Think! Listen!" she implored during an impassioned introduction of her husband today, "The game of politics is to make you afraid, so that you don't think!"
Her introduction was a super-charged version of Barack Obama’s stump speech, which has increasingly vilified the bleak status quo of a rigid Washington establishment. But where he, highlights hope, his wife warned today of the consequences of fear. Jabbing a pointed finger in the air, she derided a political system in which "every decision that we've made over the past 10 years wasn't FOR something, but was because people told us we had to fear something."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
With the Democratic debate in Iowa three days away, the Republican National Committee has a working game on its Web site “in honor of the Democrat’s (sic) first GOP debate,” called “Show of Hands.” It puts the heads of the Democratic presidential contenders at podiums -- debate style and asks questions on topics ranging from taxes and the Iraq war to flip-flopping and the Congo.
Here’s the full list of questions:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A film casting Mormons in a negative light for their role in an 1857 massacre in Utah, known as the Mountain Meadows Massacre, is due out on Aug. 24th. The timing and content of the movie, September Dawn, starring Jon Voight, is something the Chicago Sun-Times today wrote has the Romney campaign outraged. The Romney campaign, however, refuted the report, saying no one from the paper contacted the campaign and questioned who the paper’s “unnamed” Romney adviser is.
“Voters don’t use movies made in Hollywood to inform their voting choices on issues,” the Romney campaign said in an e-mail. “I don’t expect a movie about something that happened in the late 1800s to have any bearing on people in 2008 voting about national security, the economy and health care.”
First Read contacted one of the film’s executive producers, Patrick Imeson, who said there is no political motivation to the film or its release date. First Read found Imeson, a managing director at a private equity firm in Aspen, Colo., has given $4,050 to the Republican National Committee and the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee since 2003, according to campaign finance data. Imeson said he has not made up his mind on which candidate to support and he would even consider supporting Romney. CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s John Yang
One of President Bush’s twin daughters, Jenna, 26, is engaged to longtime beau Henry Hager, the First Lady’s office announced today.
Hager is the son of John Hager, assistant secretary at the U.S. Department of Education and former Virginia lieutenant governor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Andrew Merten
The Edwards campaign called on Obama to join Edwards in signing a letter telling the DNC, DSCC and DCCC to implore candidates not to take lobbyist money. The campaign also reiterated that they are leading on the issue.
“Today we are in the next step of our call to ask the entire party to say, to make a very clear statement that the democratic party is the party of the people, and begin reforming our party now,” Edwards Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince said on a conference call with reporters. He said later, “We extended a message for Senator Obama to join us on this. … I cannot see the reason why Obama would disagree. I imagine he would wholeheartedly support this … there shouldn't be any daylight between us on this. I imagine he will whole-heartedly support this.”
Not so fast. The Obama campaign wasn't going to let Edwards take the leadership mantle.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroThe
Washington Post’s David Broder sat down for a two-hour interview with potential candidate Fred Thompson, who said that when Thompson finally jumps into the presidential race, he is contemplating a strategy “that will step on many sensitive political toes.” Broder found Thompson critical of the president, the Pentagon, the FBI and bipartisan Congressional approval of Medicare.
There are two government texts Thompson cites, which give a look into what Thompson may focus on. One, Broder reports, is “ ‘Government at the Brink,’ a two-volume report he issued as chairman of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee at the start of the Bush administration in 2001 and handed to the new president's budget director as a checklist of urgent management problems.” The other “contains the scary reports from Comptroller General David Walker, the head of the Government Accountability Office, on the long-term fiscal crisis spawned by the aging of the American population and the runaway costs of health care.” CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Suspicious Minds: Is there any other way to look at yesterday’s Rove attack on Clinton? Is he trying to help or hurt Clinton's campaign? The simple fact we’re talking about Rove vs. Clinton is making the folks near the Ballston Metro smile this morning. Nothing gives someone more lefty bona fides (especially online) than having Karl Rove pick a fight with them. Also, Rove’s criticism of Clinton allowed her campaign to tie Obama -- who yesterday told the Washington Post he could do a better job of bringing the country together than Clinton can -- to Rove (as absurd as that sounds). Clinton spokesman Phil Singer told CNN, “It sounds like Karl Rove is writing Sen. Obama's talking points." Then again, couldn't Clinton end up caught in a trap with this Rove spat, because it ends up proving Obama’s point about Clinton’s ability to bring the country together?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on outgoing White House strategist Karl Rove's comments about presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton.
***
Return To Sender: The immigration debate between Giuliani and Romney is heating up big time (in fact, it's every bit as acrimonious as Clinton versus Obama). Check out the op-ed Giuliani supporter Peter King has in the
Washington Times that slams Romney on immigration. "I've watched with some bafflement this past week as former Gov. Mitt Romney created his latest position of convenience, this time on the issue of illegal immigration. First, let's address the most obvious of the problems with Mr. Romney's recent aggressiveness on this issue: the utter hypocrisy of it… As governor, illegal immigration clearly wasn't on his radar screen. Now, he is running for president, and it clearly is. But Mr. Romney's candidacy, and the political significance of illegal immigration in today's America, should not excuse his exploitation of a very important issue on which he has no record — save empty, shifting rhetoric — to speak of."
***
Take Me To The Fair: New York City!?!?!? Was that the reaction of Iowans at the State Fair when both Clinton and Giuliani showed up there yesterday? That’s unclear, but the
Washington Post's Kornblut seems to cover them yesterday as fish out of water. “Just hours apart, the two New Yorkers descended on the fairgrounds and tried to shed their city slicker personas for the day, embracing odd bits of Americana (‘Oh, my gosh!’ Clinton exclaimed as she took in a life-size cow replica made of butter) nearly four months before the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses.” By the way, why, WHY, couldn't we have seen Bill Clinton at the Iowa State Fair in his eating prime? It's just not fair. Damn you, Tom Harkin!
***
Viva Las Vegas? Not So Much: Nevada political guru
Jon Ralston says this in his daily Flash report about the news that Edwards is transferring some of his Nevada staff to Iowa and New Hampshire: "The John Edwards campaign is desperately trying to make people believe that the former North Carolina senator is still committed to Nevada, saying only a handful of staffers have left. His folks objected to your favorite Flasher's wry reference to deserting our little state, even though the AP story indicated that the Edwards move clearly indicates a focus on other states. As it clearly does. And isn't that a handful of Edwards staffers leaving Nevada out of a staff that only has a handful here? The campaign won’t release any staffing numbers to make its case because it apparently is a secret it doesn't want to share with the other campaigns."
***
Devil In Disguise: California's two leading Democratic officeholders -- Sens. Boxer and Feinstein -- have signed on to the fledgling campaign Democrats have started to stop the ballot initiative that COULD be on the ballot in 2008 which, if passed, would divide the state’s electoral votes by congressional districts. That could cost Democrats 15-20 electoral votes, or the equivalent of Michigan or Ohio. Here's the Dem campaign's
Web site.
***
On The Trail: Iowa continues to be political epicenter, especially among the Democrats: Biden makes two stops in the state; Dodd makes three, including a policy speech on education; Edwards continues his own bus tour throughout the state; Obama and his family embark on their own “Road to Change” tour; and Richardson is in Cedar Rapids, where he will unveil his economic and jobs plan. Elsewhere, Giuliani campaigns in New Hampshire; McCain appears on the Daily Show; and Romney is in West Virginia and New Hampshire
*** A Final Note: The next morning edition of First Read will appear on Monday. But check back on our site for updates throughout the day tomorrow.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 18 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 65 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 82 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 93 days
Countdown to Iowa: 150 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 172 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 446 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 523 days
At the Iowa Federation of Labor forum, Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson “said they would support labor-backed issues, such as expanding health care and toughening trade rules.”
On the heels of the Mattel toy recall, the candidates also warned against outsourcing and China.
BIDEN: At his Iowa State Fair soapbox session, Biden
chastised Democrats who voted against the war funding supplemental. “My colleagues voted against the funding to make a political point,” he said to a crowd of about 100. “There’s no political point worth my son’s life. There’s no political point worth anyone’s life. If the president is willing to play chicken with the troops, I’m not.”
The Delaware senator regularly believes he talks about key foreign policy issues before every other opponent. "Biden added that Mr. Obama's proposal to make American aid to Pakistan conditional on progress in fighting Al Qaeda is already in legislation. Mr. Biden drafted an amendment to a bill passed by Congress in July and awaiting the signature of President Bush. ‘That's the Biden-Lantos amendment,’ Mr. Biden said. ‘It exists now, so the thing that startled me was the fact that here these three people are arguing about whether we should go in or not go in or how to go in, the first thing that surprised me is it took so long for them to focus on Pakistan. I've been talking about Pakistan and this since I went into Afghanistan as the first American in there since the Taliban came down in 2001.’”
CONTINUED >>
BROWNBACK: In your face, China… In a meeting with reporters and editors from the Columbia State, Brownback said, “We have to use our economic force against China. We need to use trade tariffs against China and we need to get in their face on it.” He continued, “This is going to be a nasty fight, but they have more to lose than we do.” But the newspaper offered, “It will take some work to convince the American people that the struggle is worth it. A trade war could cost some Americans their jobs as some U.S. firms have prospered thanks to China’s huge consumer markets.”
 |
|
GIULIANI: The Politico’s Martin looks at Giuliani’s potential problem on immigration, especially with past videos and speeches making the rounds that have him saying sympathetic things about illegal immigration. “In some ways, his shift on immigration is akin to Romney's on abortion. In both cases, there are ample quotes and videos (see above) that contradict their current stance. The obvious political need to get Right on two key issues to the party base aside… But while Romney has conceded his "Road to Damascus" moment, Rudy hasn't had to admit that he was previously wrong. At least not yet.”
Giuliani writes in Foreign Affairs that he “opposes the creation of a Palestinian state at this time and would take a tough stand with Iran, including destroying its nuclear infrastructure if necessary.” CONTINUED >>
Bad news for Iowa? New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner appears determined to keep his state’s primary on a Tuesday. "I'm looking at Tuesday, unless there is some extraordinary circumstance," he said. "And we will all know if there is an extraordinary circumstance. That's where it's at, and that's it. There is no way I'd be able to figure out now all the different types of things that could develop to make it extraordinary. As far as I'm concerned, the primary is on a Tuesday."
The only Tuesday Gardner can pick in 2008 is January 8, in order to comply with the state's law of holding a primary at least seven days before another primary. That means that if Iowa wants to keep its caucuses in 2008 and also before New Hampshire’s contest -- those caucuses would end up taking place just right after New Year’s Day.
Is the White House worried about Gen. Petraeus saying too much on Capitol Hill? Is that why it wants to limit the amount of face time he has with Congress? The
Washington Post: "Senior congressional aides said yesterday that the White House has proposed limiting the much-anticipated appearance on Capitol Hill next month of Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker to a private congressional briefing, suggesting instead that the Bush administration's progress report on the Iraq war should be delivered to Congress by the secretaries of state and defense…The skirmishing is an indication of the rising anxiety on all sides in the remaining few weeks before the presentation of what is widely considered a make-or-break assessment of Bush's war strategy, and one that will come amid rising calls for a drawdown of U.S. forces from Iraq."
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The antiwar group Americans Against Escalation In Iraq will begin running a TV ad campaign targeting GOP lawmakers Thelma Drake (VA), Phil English (PA), Mitch McConnell (KY), and Fred Upton (MI). The ads -- which will air in college towns in the states on MTV, ESPN, and local network stations -- attempt to tie these Republicans to the draft.
One of the ads goes: ”Thelma Drake has supported Bush's war in Iraq for four years”; it quotes War Czar Douglas Lute about a military draft possibly being on the table. And it ends: “Tell Thelma Drake to end this war.” CONTINUED >>
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When does the economy start getting more traction in the presidential race? Yesterday, per CNBC, the Dow was down for a fifth-straight day; over that five-day period, it’s been down 5.8% -- the market’s biggest percentage drop since January 2003. Moreover, the S&P was down 91 points over this five-day stretch, the biggest point decline since July 2002. Timed to these stock market woes, Richardson today unveils his jobs and economic plan, which includes measures promoting fiscal responsibility (calling for a Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget, slashing corporate welfare, rolling back Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthiest), spurring investment in technology and innovation, and investing in the American workforce (tax credits for employers who create good jobs).
The
Washington Post writes that former RNC chairman -- and current White House counselor -- Ed Gillespie is emerging as the likely recipient of much of Karl Rove's political portfolio. “He is likely to be called on to handle political strategy and message management for the president, becoming the dominant voice in determining where and how often Bush appears and what he says during the final 17 months of his tenure.”
Ohio Rep. Deborah Pryce (R), who survived a close election last year from Mary Jo Kilroy (D), will not seek another term next year, giving Democrats a clear pickup opportunity. The
AP: “Kilroy … is running again in 2008, an election in which Democratic hopes run high because of voter disenchantment with President Bush and the Iraq war… With Pryce's and Hastert's departures, only one of the top four House Republican leaders from the GOP-controlled 109th Congress appears likely to seek election next year: Roy Blunt of Missouri, the GOP whip. Former Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, stepped down last year.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
After Huckabee finished a surprising second in the Ames straw poll, political analysts and strategists have asked this question: Can he raise the kind of money needed to be considered a first-tier candidate?
But in a meeting with reporters today, Huckabee cast some doubt on whether or not he has the ability to do that -- revealing, in fact, that he doesn’t particularly like fundraising, especially making cold calls on his own behalf. “I’m not the best fund raiser in the world,” he said, adding that there are some people who are “unabashed” about asking for money. “Will you give me $2,300?” Huckabee said mockingly.
He admitted he feels “a hesitancy” in “asking for money for me.” But as one reporter pointed out to him, shouldn't Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher, be comfortable passing around the basket to ask for spare change? He responded jokingly by clearing the place settings off two empty plates next to him and began to pass them around the room, asking if anyone would like to donate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Fresh off his Ames straw poll win, Romney's spending the day making visits in three other key primary states -- Michigan, Georgia, and Florida. During a lunch time stop in Atlanta, Romney took advantage of the time to attack Giuliani and also the three leading Democratic presidential candidates.
He questioned why Giuliani will not admit his wrongdoing regarding "sanctuary cities" for illegal immigrants. Romney also explained why sanctuary cities may have existed in Massachusetts while he was governor. "I was the governor of the state. I'm not critical of [former New York] Gov. Pataki for not cracking down on Mayor Giuliani. I'm critical of cities that call themselves sanctuary cities that say they are going to enforce the law," Romney said. "I don't know why Mayor Giuliani just won't say he made a mistake and that he's changing his mind. But cities that call themselves sanctuary cities and say that they are not going to enforce the law of immigration are making a mistake. As governor, I was responsible for my state. I was not a mayor. Had I been a mayor, I wouldn't have been sanctuary mayor."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie Dann and Mark Murray
For the second time in two days, a high-ranking White House official has taken issue with Hillary Clinton's recent critical campaign TV ad of President Bush. Yesterday, it was White House spokeswoman Dana Perino; today, it's none other than outgoing political adviser Karl Rove.
Rove -- who called Clinton a "fatally flawed" candidate the day he announced his resignation -- dialed in to Rush Limbaugh's radio show today, where he slammed Clinton's record on both health care and national security issues. "I'm a little bit surprised that somebody with a record so weak on these things would somehow deign to lecture this president," he said.
Of course, as was mentioned yesterday, this kind of criticism from Rove is precisely what the Clinton campaign wants. The more the White House spars with her, the more it bolsters her anti-war credentials; placates liberals who are skeptical of her stands on some of the issues; and transforms her into a "change" candidate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In his continuing shift right,
Giuliani is up today with a 60-second, hard-line immigration
radio ad in Iowa and New Hampshire called “Fence.” In the ad, he says illegal immigration “frustrates” him and he drew on his experience as mayor of New York -- again. He criticizes the U.S. Immigration Service, who he says he tried to work with as mayor of New York.
“It makes no sense,” Giuliani says of the immigration service’s deportation priorities. “After they have been in jail for selling drugs in the United States -- we now have to keep them in the United States. They [the immigration service] couldn’t do it [deport them], because they had other people lined up to throw out. They had like a professor who over-stayed his visa. I had a drug dealer who had maybe killed people.”
Last week, Romney accused Giuliani of having run a “sanctuary city” for illegal immigrants as mayor of New York. This week, the New York newspapers challenged Giuliani’s hard-line immigration credibility. Today, the New York Post wrote, “Critics said Giuliani's get-tough plan contrasts with his actions as mayor, when he actually filed a lawsuit to protect the identity of illegal aliens receiving city services.” Yesterday, the New York Daily News said as mayor Giuliani was “considered one of the most immigrant-friendly government executives in the nation -- in both word and deed.” CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroDonald Rumsfeld resigned from his post as Secretary of Defense before Election Day 2006, but it was not announced by
President Bush until afterwards.
Reuters obtained a copy of Rumsfeld’s resignation letter, and it was dated Nov. 6, 2006 -- the day before the mid-term elections, which saw Democrats ride a wave of dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and Republican ethical scandals to take over the U.S. House and Senate.
VIDEO: President Bush announcing Donald Rumsfeld's resignation the day after Election Day.A stamp on the letter indicates President Bush saw the letter on Election Day.
The news “infuriated some Republicans, who,” according to Reuters, “said their party might have kept more seats in Congress and perhaps kept control of the Senate if Rumsfeld had left before the election.”
We will update when we hear comment from the White House.
**** UPDATE **** In response, the White House said: "One of the things the president wanted to avoid was the appearance of trying to make this a political decision. That was very important to him, and the American people can appreciate him not playing politics with such an important decision."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Edwards is moving a handful of staff out of Nevada to focus more on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the AP reports. This is a perhaps a reflection of the weakening of the Nevada caucuses -- once thought to play a significant role in this election cycle. The DNC placed Nevada between Iowa and New Hampshire, moving its date up to Jan. 19. But last week, South Carolina announced it will move up its Republican primary to Jan. 19 from Jan. 29. That will likely prompt New Hampshire to move its primary up from Jan. 22 to at least Jan. 12 because of a state law requiring it to be a week ahead of any “similar” contest.
It may also be a reflection of Edwards picking his battles. He was third in money raised after the first two quarters -- well behind Clinton and Obama. Edwards raised $23 million; Clinton raised $62 million and Obama $58 million in primary and general election funds. Edwards was in third place in Nevada, according to a June Mason-Dixon poll, with 12%, behind Clinton with 37% and Obama at 17%.
**** UPDATE **** CHECK OUT THE EDWARDS CAMPAIGN'S AND SEN. HARRY REID'S RESPONSES
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Earlier today we questioned if Huckabee is doing enough on the fundraising and organizational ends to build on his positive buzz from the Iowa straw poll. He’s certainly done a lot to court the media, but not as much to court donors. He only raised about $1.3 million through the first two quarters of this year. But the campaign released his new schedule this morning, and they are going to be making a 12-stop push in New Hampshire from Friday through Monday. It appears there are three house party fundraisers. Is it a start?
From NBC's Mark Murray
Political observers mark your calendars: The conservative Family Research Council is planning a "Values Voters Summit" in DC from October 19-21. USA Today has the details. "The council advertises the conference ... as 'the largest gathering of values voters from across the nation.' It will include a gala dinner honoring James Dobson, head of Focus on the Family... No word yet on whether any presidential candidates will be working the crowd."
Also: "A debate called 'The Role of Faith & Politics in 2008' pits Jim Wallis, an evangelical Christian who edits the magazine Sojourners, against Richard Land, head of the Southern Baptist Convention's government affairs arm and host of three syndicated radio programs."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s Blueprint? So are we to assume Obama's interview in today’s Washington Post -- in which he says he can bring the country together while Clinton cannot -- is a blueprint of his fall campaign? While not billed as that, it certainly reads that way. The Clinton camp took Obama's words as an attack, and it depends on one's perspective if saying that Clinton is less of a unifying force is actually direct shot or not. That said, when will Obama put that message in a TV ad? Is this what we should expect in September? Obama seems both comfortable and uncomfortable contrasting himself with Clinton, as the piece suggests.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what may be Obama's campaign blueprint.
*** Turning Off The Lights: Karl Rove leaves at the end of the month. Denny Hastert, as expected, isn’t seeking another term. Tom DeLay has already left the building. So has Bill Frist. And Bush and Cheney will join them in 17 months. The GOP team that led the Republican Party to victories in ’00, ’02 and ’04 -- but also to its defeat last year and the party’s current poor brand -- is essentially out the door. That’s probably a plus for the GOP: It creates an opportunity for new leaders to take charge and redefine the party. (Check out Romney’s new TV ad in Iowa, in which he talks about change.) It will also make it somewhat harder for the Democrats, especially Clinton, to continue railing against the Bush White House; at some point, after all, Bush won’t be there anymore. But, as GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin writes, there’s a problem still hanging over the Republicans trying to succeed Bush: Iraq.
***
Courting The Media Isn’t Enough To Win: So how is Huckabee taking advantage of his surprising second-place straw poll finish today? Raising money in Texas? New York City? Stumping across New Hampshire or South Carolina? No, he's holding a media roundtable in a restaurant in Washington, D.C. And as we noted earlier in the week, the Huckabee campaign sent out a release on Monday touting the former governor’s upcoming media appearances and his earlier media hits that day. Despite his straw poll finish and his fine performances at the debates, can Huckabee dispel the notion held by many that he doesn’t want to be president -- but is instead running for a cable TV time slot?
*** Yet ANOTHER Democratic Forum: Dodd, Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Clinton and Obama today speak at the Iowa Federation of Labor presidential forum. Each candidate will appear separately (in the order above) and receive 30 minutes to answer questions. These candidates spend the rest of their day campaigning in Iowa. Biden, in fact, makes a stop at the soap box session at the state fair.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani is also in Iowa; McCain speaks at the Aspen Institute in Colorado; and Romney campaigns in Michigan, Georgia, and Florida.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 19 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 66 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 83 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 94 days
Countdown to Iowa: 151 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 173 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 447 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 524 days
CLINTON: “Clinton will announce in Iowa today proposals for cutting back on deceptive and fraudulent practices in the [health care] industry” and “wants to impose new consumer safeguards,” according to the Des Moines Register.
So who is the helpful reporter in the White House press corps that asked Dana Perino yesterday about the new Clinton ad? Will this reporter ask about every Edwards and Obama ad that ends up attacking the Bush Administration as well? Anyway, Clinton took the
attack by Perino of Clinton's first TV ad as a badge of honor while campaigning in Iowa yesterday.
Clinton said she’s “thrilled” the White House doesn’t like the ad. “Apparently, I've struck a nerve.”
In fact, check out this Clinton-vs.-Perino graphic via the New York Post.
DODD: In Iowa yesterday, the Connecticut senator
repeated his call to make community colleges free.
CONTINUED >>
GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin writes about what Bush could do for the GOP presidential candidates. "First, Mr. Bush should take the political version of the Hippocratic oath: Do no harm. He made the plight of the Republicans worse by championing a muddled immigration bill that raised the specter of ‘amnesty’ without the promise of secure borders." Second, leave Gonzales in place as attorney general. "If the Republicans must all run against the Bush administration to one degree or another, Mr. Gonzales is a living, breathing argument that they will have better administrative skills than the current incumbent." Third, "The president might better help the Republican cause by finding his little-used veto pen and working on spending restraint."
"Of course, the most important thing President Bush could do for the G.O.P. candidates would be to produce some improvement in the situation in Iraq… The best the G.O.P. contenders could hope for is a more stable Iraq and the beginning of a gradual withdrawal of American troops."
The Boston Globe looks at the spat over immigration between Giuliani and Romney, noting that they have “stepped up their efforts to out-tough each other.” CONTINUED >>
The Los Angeles Times: “Intent on demonstrating progress in Iraq, the top U.S. general there is expected by Bush administration officials to recommend removing American troops soon from several areas where commanders believe security has improved, possibly including Al Anbar province. According to the officials, Gen. David H. Petraeus is expected to propose the partial pullback in his September status report to Congress, when both the war's critics and supporters plan to reassess its course. Administration officials who support the current troop levels hope Petraeus' recommendations will persuade Congress to reject pressure for a major U.S. withdrawal.”
In an interview with the
Politico, Rove delivers a parting shot at the Democrats on national security. “[A]n unrepentant Karl Rove said Tuesday that Democrats are headed toward repeating Vietnam-era mistakes that gave Republicans the upper hand on national defense for 30 years. ‘The Democrats have a problem with national security,’ the White House senior adviser said. ‘Too many Democratic leaders are opposing policies that will lead to America’s success in the Middle East.’”
More: “In an hour-long interview near the Crawford White House, Rove said congressional efforts to oppose President Bush’s ‘surge’ strategy have clear echoes of Democrats in the early 1970s who cut off support for U.S. military involvement in Vietnam, a war that was even more unpopular than Iraq. In Rove’s view, the nation wound up with its prestige diminished and its adversaries emboldened.”
The Washington Post notes that former Speaker Denny Hastert will announce on Friday that he won’t seek another term. “GOP aides say that Hastert is likely to serve out the rest of his term, but that he has been considering resigning from the House this year. If he did, Hastert would trigger a special election that could give an indication of whether Democrats are continuing their political surge or whether Republicans have stanched the bleeding in GOP-leaning districts.”
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More: “Two Republican candidates for Hastert's seat have already emerged -- state Sen. Chris Lauzen and Jim Oberweis, a well-funded investment adviser and dairy farmer who has run for office several times. But a special election could give the GOP trouble, said Stuart Rothenberg… President Bush took 55 percent of the vote in 2004 in Hastert's district, a majority that was small enough for some Democratic candidates to win in other districts in 2006. A special election would hinge on turnout; and for the moment, Republicans are demoralized by an unpopular president and an unpopular war, while Democrats are energized for the same reasons.”
The New York Times: “Mr. Hastert’s decision means that as of January 2009, he and former Representative Tom DeLay of Texas, two Republicans who dominated the House for years after Mr. DeLay helped elevate Mr. Hastert, will be absent from the halls of Congress.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Clinton folks have to be giddy about this: The White House today criticized Clinton's new TV ad, which claims that people without health-care coverage and soldiers fighting in Iraq are invisible to Bush.
"[A]s to the merits of it, I think it's outrageous," said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino at today's gaggle. "This is a president who, first and foremost, has helped millions of seniors across the country have access to prescription drugs at a much lower cost... And as to whether or not our troops are invisible to this president, I think that that is absurd, and that is unconscionable that a member of Congress would say such a thing."
Why are the Clinton people giddy? As the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder puts it, "Remember, a critical -- perhaps the critical -- distinction Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign wants Democratic primary voters to draw is between her 'competence' and President Bush's brand." In other words, she becomes the "change" candidate if she's running against Bush -- and not against some of her Democratic competitors who haven't been in Washington as long as she has.
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we predicted this morning, this Obama statement yesterday regarding Afghanistan -- "We've got to get the job done there and that requires us to have enough troops so that we're not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous pressure over there" -- drew a response from the Republicans. "It is hard to imagine that anyone who aspires to be commander-in-chief would say such a thing about our brave men and women in uniform," RNC chairman Mike Duncan said today in a statement. "Obama owes our armed forces an apology -- today.”
Yet the AP has this fact-check: "A check of the facts shows that Western forces have been killing civilians at a faster rate than the insurgents [in Afghanistan]... As of Aug. 1, the AP count shows that while militants killed 231 civilians in attacks in 2007, Western forces killed 286. Another 20 were killed in crossfire that can't be attributed to one party."
From NBC’s Carrie Dann
It's a bold goal, but Giuliani insists it's possible.
"We can end illegal immigration. I promise you, we can end illegal immigration," the former New York City mayor said this morning in South Carolina, where, armed with PowerPoint slides and an emphasis on his experience as mayor of one of America's most diverse cities, he laid out his plan to reform immigration and close the porous national borders.
Giuliani focused on high-tech solutions like massive databases to track immigrants, as well as measures to encourage assimilation. He described how the creation of physical and "technological" fences, which would use heat and motion-sensing devices, could block the flow of illegals across the border.
Giuliani acknowledged that his plan for border security would be pricey to enact, but was adamant that his plans are realistic and that the results will be worth it.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Richardson campaign has announced it's running two new TV ads in Iowa, both of which tout his record as New Mexico governor. The first is a serious ad, with a narrator stating, "Governor Bill Richardson started with tax credits for creating jobs that pay above the prevailing wage. He passed a permanent rural jobs tax credit. And invested in brand new industries ... Over 80,000 new jobs."
The second one -- which contains the same message -- is the latest in his series of those quirky "job interview" TV ads.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign announced its second round of participants for a "Dinner with Barack," which will be held in September. The first dinner was held on July 10 in DC.
As with the first round of participants, these people were chosen from a pool who had donated at least $5 to the campaign and submitted a personal statement. They are:
-- Mike Wilson (of Cocoa Beach, FL), a registered Republican and Air Force veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom who disagrees with the war
-- Brittany Washington (of Los Angeles), a Howard University student who wants to join Teach for America
-- Dorothy Unruh (of Lakewood, CO), who is a retiree
-- and Gabrielle Grossman (of Exeter, NH), a former 7th-grade teacher and current stay-at-home mom who is volunteering for the campaign.
From NBC’s Libby Leist
You know it's summer in Washington when the State Department briefing includes questions on GQ Magazine and its new "50 Most Powerful People in D.C." list.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was listed as the No. 1 most powerful person in Washington, as judged by think tankers, journalists and Congressional staffers.
And while Rice's spokesman dismissed the list as GQ's attempt to sell magazines, he was also quick to remind reporters that the diplomats at Foggy Bottom did well.
"I would note, however, that the State Department, out of the top 50, had three people placed on that list," he said smiling.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell
In an e-mail just sent to supporters, Fred Thompson appeals for contributions in a way that has a tinge of money anxiety: "
...even a testing-the-waters committee needs ongoing financial support. If anything, it's more important, because just as testing-the-waters is about gauging grassroots support, it's also about measuring our ability to raise the money necessary to mount a national campaign...."
Thompson will make his first trip to Iowa as a potential candidate Friday. His e-mail also appears to gently play down the significance of the Ames straw poll, while hinting at his indirect presence through supporters.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
In this interview with
The Progressive, a combative
Elizabeth Edwards fires some salvos at
Clinton and
Obama. Regarding Iraq, she said: "Obama gives a speech that’s likely to be extraordinarily popular in his home district, and then comes to the Senate and votes for funding. John, the first time funding came up, he was already suspicious. What he said was we’ve got two issues, one is the information and the other is not trusting your President. And he gave plenty of speeches at the time saying, 'I’m not voting for the $87 billion because he has no plan.'"
VIDEO: The Edwards discuss cancer and the campaign on NBC's Today Show with Meredith Viera. "Now Hillary, I don’t know what Hillary’s objection is. She, even in the New Hampshire debate, said, 'I made a mistake.' People are looking for a mea culpa from her. And when she buries a line like that -- I give her credit for saying that -- but when she buries that line... We’re electing the leader of the free world, and just like the votes on this last funding bill, we’re looking for a leader. They are very important leaders in the Senate. And we got thirteen votes on this last bill? Could they have influenced a few more votes? Probably not enough, but they should have been out there trying."
CONTINUED >>
As we
teased earlier,
NBC’s Andrea Mitchell spent some time in Nevada with Hillary Clinton, who walked a day in a nurse's shoes, so to speak, in an effort to shore up support from the SEIU. They talked about how to insure the uninsured, Karl Rove, Republicans’ views on her candidacy, whether or not she’s a drag on Democrats down the ballot and her first ad of her 2008 presidential campaign.
VIDEO: Hillary Clinton discusses health care and her campaign for president with NBC's Andrea Mitchell.
Click READ MORE for the entire interview.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Flying Blind: NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart (D) tells First Read that the revision of the primary calendar -- moving Iowa forward to the first few days in January -- is really the most important political event that has happened in the past few months. From his point of view, it changes the entire rhythm of the political cycle in a way that cannot be fully appreciated, maybe not until after the nominating contests are over. Hart says it would be interesting to re-play many of the past caucuses if they were held on January 5th or 7th; his guess is that Dean would have won in 2004, and that Reagan would have defeated Bush in 1980. Perhaps most significant of all is that no one will know who's up and who's down right before Iowa. No self-respecting polling company, he says, does polling between the 20th and 25th of December. So we very well might have no idea how Iowa will break until after the results are in. If Hart's right and the leader before Christmas is the leader on Caucus day, does that make the window between Thanksgiving and December 20 the three most important three weeks of the primary campaign?
*** On The Media Couch: Today, the Karl Rove story has that feel of "everything's been said, just not everyone has said it," meaning that Rove will be on the media couch all week. The thing that is going to burn the current occupant in the Oval Office is that Rove's exit is being used as the definitive proof that Bush is a "lame duck." It's an obvious observation and, frankly, unavoidable. But no doubt it's ticking off Bush and those folks who remain in the West Wing. One other Rove note: What the made him different from every other modern political savant-like adviser (whom the media fawned over, at times TOO much) was that he decided to accept a formal role in the White House after electing his client. Ultimately, was that a good idea?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd's first read on the next Karl Rove and selling Hillary Clinton in Iowa.
*** Searching For The Next Rove: The question now turns to: Who becomes the next famous -- or, depending on your political views, infamous -- political operative? Clinton’s Mark Penn or Mandy Grunwald? Obama’s David Axelrod? Edwards’ Joe Trippi or Elizabeth Edwards? Giuliani’s Tony Carbonetti? Romney’s Alex Gage? Bloomberg’s Sheekey? The answer, of course, will be determined by which presidential candidate wins on November 4, 2008. But as the New York Times’ Nagourney asked last month, just how important are these uber-strategists anyway? “There is little doubt that consultants … are an integral part of defining who the candidate is and presenting the candidate’s ideas to the public,” he wrote. “But consultants are not the candidate. And for all the attention paid to them, they rarely, if ever, determine whether a candidate wins the election.” That said, the media will anoint one or more of these folks to legendary status, deserved or not, and will have this debate about their importance all over again, same time next term.
*** Did You Know That Rove Was A Dwight Schrute Look-Alike? Speaking of Rove, don’t miss this 1972 Dan Rather report on Nixon’s re-election campaign, which comes courtesy of NBC political analyst Charlie Cook (who apparently loves
YouTube). About three-quarters of the way in, Rather interviews a young, bespectacled, and big-haired Karl Rove, who talks about the GOP youth vote. This belongs in a political museum. Enjoy.
*** A Day With Hillary: NBC's Andrea Mitchell spent the day with Hillary Clinton yesterday and pressed her on recent questions that were being raised about her electability, particularly by Republicans. Clinton: "I don't think that's what they want at all. I think that -- you know, they play a lot of games. And I'm well aware of that. But I know that -- I'm gonna run a winning campaign. And I think they know I'm gonna win a running campaign." Asked about the Ron Fournier AP story claiming Democrats are nervous about Clinton leading the ticket, Clinton: "Well, I'm ahead, and I'm winning and I'm gaining support everywhere I go. And I don't think I have any right to anybody's vote. I have to earn every vote, and that's what I'm doing everyday; going out and talking about what I would do as President, reaching out to people. What I have found is that in a campaign I have a real chance for people to be disabused of a lot of the stereotypes and the caricatures about me." Also… per her campaign, look for Clinton to touch on the same themes in her Iowa speech today that she's airing in her new TV ad; the "invisible" mantra is one we should expect to hear all week long (if not longer).
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VIDEO: NBC's Andrea Mitchell on Hillary Clinton's inside look at the life of a nurse.
*** Stumping In Iowa: If you’re a presidential candidate, chances are that you’re in Iowa today. Clinton hits Dubuque and Council Bluffs; Dodd travels to Adel, Boone, and Fort Dodge; Edwards makes six stops in the state on his "Fighting for One America" bus tour; McCain, in Des Moines, gives a soap box speech at the state fair; and Richardson does the same. New Hampshire and South Carolina might be driving the primary calendar, but Iowa is still the candidates’ No.1 destination.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani gives an immigration speech from Aiken, SC. And Romney holds an “Ask Mitt Anything” town hall and a media avail in Oklahoma City before heading to Grand Prairie, TX to attend Sean Hannity's Freedom Concert.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 20 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 67 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 84 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 95 days
Countdown to Iowa: 152 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 174 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 448 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 525 days
The New York Times on Karl Rove’s legacy: “Whatever history makes of Karl Rove’s role in the White House, his legacy as a political strategist can be measured in a presidential campaign that has already begun without him. A look at the roster of every Republican presidential candidate finds people who have worked with him, and they have brought some of his methods to this race. But Mr. Rove leaves the White House anything but victorious.”
The Washington Post’s analysis: “[F]ew people -- including his Republican allies -- believe Rove succeeded in what he set as his ultimate goal: creating a long-lasting GOP majority in the country that could reverse the course set 70 years ago by President Franklin D. Roosevelt.”
The Boston Globe’s Canellos writes, “Historians will probably long debate just how much Rove, the political guru, influenced the Bush administration's policies. But there can be little doubt that the administration's personality -- combative, unyielding, indulgent of its supporters and contemptuous of its opponents -- was shaped in large part by Rove's political philosophy.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The Delaware senator
detailed his health-care plan for veterans at a stop in New Hampshire yesterday.
Also in the state, he said, Biden
said, “Not in the lifetime of anyone in this room will there be a centralized democratic government in Iraq" and that current U.S. policy is “breaking the U.S. military.”
CLINTON: This is fascinating and could lead to all sorts of conspiracy theories. Hillary Clinton's records from her time in the White House are locked up in a building in Little Rock, according to the
Los Angeles Times, "obscuring a large swath of her record as first lady." More: "What records that have been made public offer tantalizing details about Hillary Clinton's White House years. One memo reveals details about the ‘war room’ for the healthcare plan. Aides wrote of the need for secrecy, but also presented Hillary Clinton with arguments she could make that the process of drawing up a healthcare plan was "the most open in the history of the federal government."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The
New York Daily News tees up the candidate’s immigration speech today. "As Giuliani seeks the Republican nomination for President, few issues leave him as open to attack as immigration, a topic that has ignited the conservative GOP base this year like no other. These days, Giuliani talks stridently about requiring all noncitizens to receive ‘tamper-proof’ ID cards, to learn English as a condition of citizenship, and about building a fence, real and ‘technological,’ along the Mexican border… But it was not always so for Giuliani, who as mayor was considered one of the most immigrant-friendly government executives in the nation - in both word and deed."
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A day before the speech, Giuliani yesterday announced his immigration advisory board -- a week after Romney accused him of having run a “sanctuary city” for illegal immigrants while mayor of New York. The team includes Robert Bonner, former commissioner of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency and former administrator of the Drug Enforcement Agency; Stewart Verdery Jr., the former assistant secretary for policy and planning at the Department of Homeland Security; Victor Cerda; Michael Petrucelli; Nicolle Sciara Rippeon; Ray Shepherd; and Jan Ting.
Giuliani is taking the unusual step of holding a fund-raiser overseas in London on Sept. 19, the New York Post reports. It “aims to give Americans living abroad a chance to get involved.” CONTINUED >>
With September approaching, the New York Times profiles Defense Secretary Robert Gates. “In many ways, Mr. Gates is shaping up to be a pivotal figure in the debate. As an outsider who took over at the Pentagon only last December, and who has admirers in both parties, he may be the one person with the clout to persuade either President Bush or the Democratic-led Congress to compromise. He is also the administration official whose views are the least understood.”
The paper also writes about Gen. Petraeus. “[F]or General Petraeus, being cast as the president’s white knight has been a mixed blessing. While he talks with Mr. Bush once or twice a week, in interviews he depicts himself as owing loyalty as much to Congress as the White House and stresses the downside, as well as the upside, of the military effort here.”
The AP reports on the rise of China as an issue in the 2008 campaign.
The Des Moines Register reports on the cost of a presidential campaign -- to Iowans. “Local taxpayers are shelling out thousands of dollars to help protect high-profile candidates who have required Secret Service protection during visits to Iowa communities. This year, cities in Iowa have paid premiums in police overtime to facilitate large campaign events.”
The DCCC announced yesterday that it’s going up with radio ads targeting Florida GOP Reps. Bill Young, Vern Buchanan and Tom Feeney, and New Jersey Rep. Jim Saxton on their votes against SCHIP. An example of one of these ads: “Did you know Congressman Saxton receives health care at taxpayers’ expense, but Saxton voted against providing health care for 5 million uninsured children. Tell Jim Saxton to put families first.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro, Kelly O’Donnell, Mike Viqueira, Libby Leist, Joel Seidman, Ken Strickland, Carrie Dann and Jenny Anzelmo
In response to Karl Rove announcing he will leave the White House at the end of this month, presidential candidates and inside-the-beltway officials have been reacting on both sides of the aisle. Here’s some of what was said from Edwards, Obama and Huckabee to Joe Wilson, Karen Hughes, Senate Judiciary Chairman Pat Leahy and others.
Hughes said the White House will be losing “the Energizer Bunny of the West Wing.” Obama called Rove the “architect,” who “left the country more divided.” Edwards was more flippant, saying just “Goodbye and Good Riddance!” Huckabee said he thinks Rove “wants to spend more time with his banker.” Wilson said, “Rove's resignation signals the final chapter in the
Bush administration's betrayal of the identity of a covert CIA officer.” Leahy said, “Rove's apparent attempts to manipulate elections and push out prosecutors citing bogus claims of voter fraud shows corruption of federal law enforcement for partisan political purposes.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'DonnellSenior advisers say
Rove's duties as deputy chief of staff, senior adviser and assistant to the president "may be split up," and therefore we may not see a single replacement announced as a direct successor to Rove.
From NBC's Pete Williams
What effect will
Rove's departure have on the argument by the White House that executive privilege shields him from having to testify before Congress? In one critical way, not much.
Rove was obviously a part of many Oval Office discussions that would be subject to a claim of executive privilege even after he is gone from the White House. So the president could use executive privilege regarding past discussions, says George Mason University professor Mark Rozell, an expert on the privilege. And many legal experts agree.
The Bush Administration has already taken just this position with Harriet Miers, the former White House legal counsel. Of course, the bottom-line question of which is more important -- the president's need for confidential advice or Congress' need to get information in investigations -- is largely unresolved by the courts.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Edwards made a point at the AFL-CIO forum about Clinton appearing on the cover of Fortune. Edwards isn't on the cover, but he did do a Q&A with CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo in this week's Business Week. In the article, he calls the Saudi arms deal “a bad idea,” hit the credit card industry, defended his record as a trial lawyer and talked about his days as an adviser to a private equity firm.
Bartiromo asked him if there’s a contradiction between him calling on Clinton not to take money from NewsCorp’s Rupert Murdoch or him taking a book advance from NewsCorp subsidiary HarperCollins. Edwards said “every dime of it went to charity” and calls the story “nothing but an attempt to distract from the basic issue that I've been raising, which is consolidation of the media.”
Edwards also said between the “haves” and “have nots,” he admits there’s “no question” his family is a “have.” But he said he feels a “responsibility … to try to make the same opportunities available to others.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Clinton is up with her
first ad of her presidential campaign, and it will begin running in Iowa tomorrow. A key point to note is that it is not a biographical ad. Instead, it is about Iowans.The 60-second ad, called “Invisible” is a populist appeal, featuring her with farmers and blue-collar workers. Her voice is heard above footage of her meeting people and farmland scenery. In the ad, she says that families seeking health care, single moms looking for affordable childcare and soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan “are invisible to this president.” “Americans from all walks of life, across our country, may be invisible to this president,” Clinton says, “but they’re not invisible to me.”
The ad was unveiled by former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack today in Des Moines.
CLICK MORE FOR FULL TRANSCRIPT
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Karl Rove announced with President Bush that he will be stepping down at the end of this month. Rove choked up at times, as he reminisced on his longtime friendship with President Bush.
VIDEO: President Bush and Karl Rove discuss Rove's departure from the White House.
President Bush, who called Rove, his deputy chief of staff, a “dear friend,” thanked him and cited Rove wanting to spend more time with his family as the reason for stepping down. Rove, who said he and the president had broached the idea of him stepping down last summer, was nicknamed "The architect" by President Bush after his successful 2004 re-election bid.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
While we know plenty about
Karl Rove's longtime relationship with
President Bush, his relationship with the first lady seems a bit more complicated. Here are a few lines, per an April 2004
New York Times piece: "
Laura Bush is so devoted [to her husband] that she gets angry when Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's chief political adviser, is called 'Bush's brain' or is credited with being the real power in the West Wing. 'His input is valued just about, you know, equally with a whole lot of other people and — or maybe less, I should say, than some of the other people over there,' Mrs. Bush said in an interview in February."
From NBC's Carrie Dann
*** McCain's campaign has been struggling, and the series of candidate speeches at Ames's Hilton Coliseum on Saturday -- taken in the aggregate -- may paint a really interesting picture as to why. Slams against the "amnesty" bill that McCain co-sponsored were a-plenty, and demands for border security were gimme applause lines for every candidate. Iraq -- the other issue that's been a thorn in McCain's side -- received very little airtime in comparison. The candidate who may have addressed the war most directly, Vietnam vet and House Armed Services ranking member Duncan Hunter, came in a dismal ninth in the poll.
*** In his address in Ames on Saturday, Romney's words about George W. Bush illustrated his nuanced relationship with the president. Romney praised Bush for keeping America safe since 9/11, but led into his kind words for the president with this: "It's gotten popular as of late for a lot of people in the media and other places to be critical of the President. There's no one that's perfect." By praising Bush on national security without mentioning Iraq, he left himself some wiggle room to distance himself from an unpopular commander-in-chief in the future.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro***
Rove’s Exit: NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell confirms a Wall Street Journal report that Bush’s longtime friend and political adviser Karl Rove will resign, effective August 31. Rove, in fact, will speak to TV cameras today before the president departs to Crawford, TX at approximately 11:35 am ET. His resignation comes on the heels of a just-published Atlantic Monthly
cover story detailing his political rise and fall. “The Bush Administration made a virtual religion of the belief that if you act boldly, others will follow in your wake. That certainly proved to be the case with Karl Rove, for a time,” the article concludes. “But for all the fascination with what Rove was doing and thinking, little attention was given to whether or not it was working and why.” A few other thoughts: Check out who got the story -- not a reporter, but the WSJ’s editorial page editor. Discuss! (Rove's MSM revenge?) Also, his every move will be examined come September, as everyone will wonder whom Rove might secretly help in the GOP primaries. By the way, who had Gonzales staying longer than Rove in their White House staffing exodus office pool?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Karl Rove's resignation.
***
Huck Of A Story: In terms of surprises at a straw poll that Romney was destined to win, Huckabee was it. He actually received more votes than he bought, a noble feat in the straw poll. Huckabee's campaign tells First Read they didn't rent one bus, and they remind us that the Club for Growth was up with attack TV ads all week. So not only did he have very little in paid media this last week, he was the only one dealing with negative ads. His second place finish is not just a shot in the arm for him, but it's a real devastating blow to Brownback, who wanted to make a statement with a strong second-place showing. Huckabee is now first among the second-tier candidates, and he’s making a strong case for first-tier inclusion, if only he could raise more serious money. However, he still needs 10 times the number of votes he received in the straw poll to finish in the top-three in the actual Iowa caucuses. A final thought to chew on: How strong would Huckabee’s candidacy be right now if he had assembled a top-flight fundraising and GOTV operation at the time Romney was doing?
*** Other Ames Observations: As for Romney, he won by enough to avoid embarrassment. Most importantly, in Iowa, his victory will be a boost, because Iowa Republicans do take the winner of the straw poll seriously, even if some in the national media will question its relevance since the other front-runners didn't participate. Also, don't get carried away on turnout -- the Iowa GOP did a much better job of checking for Iowa IDs than in years past. Brownback did the most overt negative campaigning (after the Club for Growth). Does that mean negative campaigning backfired? For a party-type atmosphere, possibly. Then again, it could have contributed to the lower turnout.
*** So Long, Tommy: We also saw our first casualty after the straw poll: Tommy Thompson, who kept his pledge to drop out if he didn't finish first or second. Thompson's candidacy was underwhelming from the start and for longtime watchers of the former governor -- that was a surprise. His record in Wisconsin and his ambition led a lot of us to believe he'd be a better candidate. Thompson, in fact, may have damaged his status in Wisconsin, ever so slightly. He doesn't seem like the juggernaut he once was (good news for Feingold/Kohl and the next Dem GOV nominee?). As for others who may drop out: What about Brownback? Does he rethink his candidacy, since he spent the second most money on the straw poll, yet finished third? Tancredo and Paul strike us as candidates who won't ever quit (Paul’s fervent support over the internet, though, didn’t’ get him better than fifth). Hunter? He actually aired a TV ad before the straw poll. Will he rethink?
*** Hillary’s A Drag? If not for the Rove and Ames news, this AP story by Ron Fournier might be garnering the most attention today: As the party’s nominee, Hillary Clinton could be a drag on House and Senate Democratic candidates, especially those from red states. “A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat.” There’s also this: “A strategist with close ties to leaders in Congress said Democratic Senate candidates in competitive races would be strongly urged to distance themselves from Clinton.” Remember, in fact, that the Clintons’ own successes haven’t always translated into successes for the Democratic Party: Despite Bill’s two wins in ’92 and ’96, the Democrats lost control of Congress during his presidency (and lost Senate seats both times he was on the ballot), they were unable to win it back until last year, and they lost the White House in the race to succeed him. Is what’s good for the Clintons necessarily good for the Democrats?
*** Primarily In 2008: Iowa and New Hampshire have both confirmed over the weekend they'll pick dates that keep both events in 2008. Look for Saturday affairs (possibly Jan. 5 and Jan. 12, respectively), with Mon. Jan 7 and Thurs. Jan 10 as two other potential dates. But bottom line: Circle Jan. 5 or 7 for Iowa, and Jan. 10 or 12 for New Hampshire.
*** On The Trail: Clinton has a conversation with rural Nevadans and then spends a day working with SEIU nurse Michelle Estrada in Henderson, NV; Dodd and Edwards both campaign in Iowa; McCain is in South Carolina; Obama stumps in New Hampshire; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; and Romney holds a town hall and media avail in Elko, NV.
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 21 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 68 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 85 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 96 days
Countdown to Iowa: 153 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 175 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 449 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 526 days
Out of 14,302 ballots cast, here were the results on Saturday: 1) Romney 4,516 votes (31.6%); 2) Huckabee 2,587 (18.1%); 3) Brownback 2,192 (15.3%); 4) Tancredo 1,961 (13.7%); 5) Paul 1,305 (9.1%); 6) T. Thompson 1,039 (7.3%); 7) F. Thompson 203 (1.4%); 8) Giuliani 183 (1.3%); 9) Hunter 174 (1.2%); 10) McCain 101 (0.7%); and 11) Cox 41 (0.3%).
The Washington Post called Romney's win "convincing," but it adds: "Romney's victory came against a relatively weak field that did not include Giuliani, Sen. John McCain of Arizona or former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee, and after he heavily outspent those who did compete. Still, the result, with Romney easily outpacing his rivals with 32 percent of the vote, helps elevate him from relative obscurity six months ago to the top tier of the GOP field -- despite his relatively low standing in national polls."
VIDEO: Romney wins the Iowa straw poll.
Romney was on TODAY this morning to talk about his win. “It sends a message that America is ready for a change, and that change begins in Iowa.”
CONTINUED >>
Last week was the GOP's turn to dominate Iowa. This week, it's the Democrats. Both Edwards and Obama have bus trips that will involve some state fair time.
CLINTON: The
AP's most experienced Clinton reporter, Ron Fournier, has a story that questions Hillary Clinton's electability -- not for herself, but for Democrats down the ballot. "In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races… The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates.”
The
Boston Globe examines Clinton's efforts over the years to build her national security resume. "Clinton has taken extraordinary pains, not only on the campaign trail but in her years in the US Senate, to position herself as the candidate who would be the strongest commander in chief, even as she has infuriated some Democrats who believe her desire to appear tough made her slow to criticize the Iraq war."
CONTINUED >>
The Giuliani campaign took great glee in the fact that on the same day as the Ames straw poll, the Florida Republican Party was deciding to make its January 29th primary a winner-take-all affair -- not break up the delegates via congressional district like other GOP primaries do. Giuliani's camp sent out a statement in Tony Carbonetti's name praising the Florida GOP decision.
As for what's the most likely schedule, it appears both Iowa and New Hampshire officials are determined to make sure the 2008 process starts in, well, 2008. Look for one or more Saturday events -- with New Hampshire either going Jan. 10th (Thursday) or Jan. 12 (Saturday). Iowa is looking at either Jan. 5 (Saturday) or Jan. 7 (Monday). Iowa is signaling that it does NOT need to be the traditional eight days before New Hampshire; they'll be 5-7 days before (maybe even 3 days?). Either way, the only question in our head about Saturday caucuses or primaries in January: College football (whose bowl season doesn't end until the second week of January) and NFL playoffs (imagine if the Patriots are playing on the same day as the New Hampshire primary).
GIULIANI: The New York Times says that while Giuliani has his message down, he's still searching for a campaign style. "The ideological base of Mr. Giuliani’s campaign for president has, by now, come into fairly sharp relief: terrorism and small government. But the stylistic side — the way he interacts with voters and presents himself at rallies, the music he uses to announce his entrances — seems to be a work in progress as he tries to balance his New York persona with his heartland campaign."
The Boston Globe front-pages that Giuliani continues his “conservative shift” and calls him a “political makeover in progress.” They cite his shifting stances on gay marriage, abortion federal campaign finance laws, immigration and gun control.
He again flubbed when talking about Ground Zero workers. He first said he spent more time there than the workers, then he told reporters about Ground Zero workers that he was practically “one of them.” He backtracked on Saturday, saying he misspoke.
CONTINUED >>
Interestingly, both Edwards (via his campaign office) and Clinton (via her Senate press office) sent out statements criticizing Lt. Gen. Lute's recent statements about the potential for reinstating the draft. Remember, Democrats did a good job of creating this "draft" straw man in 2004. Will the Bush Admin and other GOP candidates allow the Democrats to create this straw man again in '08?
Meanwhile, the
New York Times has a CW-setting piece about how all of the leading Democratic presidential candidates are suggesting that it's going to take years to leave Iraq. "These positions and those of some rivals suggest that the Democratic bumper-sticker message of a quick end to the conflict — however much it appeals to primary voters — oversimplifies the problems likely to be inherited by the next commander in chief. Antiwar advocates have raised little challenge to such positions by Democrats… Many Democrats are increasingly taking the position, in televised debates and in sessions with voters across the country, that ending a war can be as complicated as starting one."
NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell notes that advisers said Rove has been talking to President Bush about his possible resignation for "a long time, about a year." The view inside has been there has always been a "big project to work on and his strategic abilities and our need for his support kept him here." Advisers acknowledge there is "never a good time to leave, just the ‘right’ time."
VIDEO: NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports Top White House political adviser Karl Rove says that he will resign at the end of this month.
Rove tells O’Donnell that he does not plan to advise or work with GOP contenders or the eventual nominee, "I don't see taking a role in a 2008 presidential campaign." Rove has previously described himself as "a Bush man" when he said he did not have interest in assisting another Republican candidate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Like the majority of the Republican candidates for president, Romney is spending the last day before the Ames straw poll at the Iowa State Fair. Wearing a personalized apron, saying "Mitt Romney: Not a Blah Cook," Mitt and his wife Ann took turns flipping pork chops at the Iowa Pork Producers tent. While flipping, he took the opportunity to reflect on the Ames poll.
"I'd like to do as well as I can do,” Romney said. “I think everybody wants to win. I want to win too. But a lot of folks are working hard, and we'll see who comes out. Of course this was an effort to get our friends and supporters out and hopefully they'll be watching TV tonight and remember that Ames is tomorrow and we'll get some folks there."
A reporter asked Romney if he thought it was smart to be flipping anything, in light of flip-flop accusations. "It's part of the process," Romney answered. "It's part of the fun, to be at the Iowa state fair and flipping pork chops."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Former First Reader Elizabeth Wilner has an interesting column in the
Politico. She compares the
Clinton camp's style to the
Bush-Cheney campaign operation. "[T]he Clinton and Bush recipes for political success share unusual overlap, starting with their basic ingredients: a highly disciplined candidate running an equally well-disciplined operation, surrounded by extremely loyal staffers who take care not to undercut their candidate with leaks to the press."
She also notes these similarities between the operations: effectively using the straw man, aggressively pushing back against the media, projecting the aura of inevitability, and adopting a you're-with-us-or-against-us mentality.
From NBC’s Jenny Anzelmo
As expected,
Edwards addressed the issues in context of his social justice platform. He began by telling a story of a recent trip to Los Angeles when he met a group of homeless people, who had no place to live because they came out of the closet. "Thank God for the LA gay and lesbian center, being there for them... Without that place, where would these young people go? It just can't be in America that people think that's OK." He described what a huge impact that had on him.
Edwards was given an opportunity to attack Ann Coulter, who once referred to Edwards with an anti-gay slur. He said, “What Ann Coulter does is the worst kind of public discourse. It demeans everything the rest of us do. It divides us.” He praised his wife, Elizabeth, for calling into MSNBC’s Hardball to denounce this kind of “hate mongering,” saying “… If you stand quietly by and let it happen, it takes hold.”
Also, Edwards was asked whether or not he thought children should be taught about LGBT families in school. He said, “Sure [they] should.” Edwards went on to explain that gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to adopt children, and that it would have a great impact on the kids in the foster care system who need a home.
STRONG>From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In a pre-forum questionnaire on whether or not the candidates are in favor of same-sex marriage,
Kucinich and
Gravel were the only candidates to respond, “yes.” As a result, they were received warmly. Kucinich was called "so evolved for a member of Congress" and an "outspoken hero."
Melissa Etheridge continued the love fest, telling Kucinich, "I hope you always run for president until you are elected. I do, I do."
Kucinich talked a lot about love, saying it "has the power to transform" and concluding his address by telling the audience, "I send you great love." He successfully connected with the audience by talking about his relationship with his wife. "I can't imagine what it would be like meet the love of my life ... and be told we can't be married,” he said. “That would be devastating. Because I understand that, I am ready to be your president."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Richardson spent most of last night on the defensive and never found his groove at the Human Rights Campaign forum on LGBT rights in Los Angeles. He defended his stance on same-sex marriages, saying, "I'm not there yet;" once-using a Spanish slur for gay people on the defunct Don Imus show in 2006; and if homosexuality is a choice or biological.
This last topic has spurred the most conversation. Panelist
Melissa Etheridge asked Richardson if he believes homosexuality is a choice or biological, and Richardson was clearly flustered. Etheridge continued, asking him if he believes a homosexual is born that way or has an epiphany around seventh grade deciding to be gay. Richardson dodged the question.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Sen.
Dodd called for No Child Left Behind to be reformed -- not scrapped as other Democratic presidential candidates have proposed. He also repeated his call for a subsidy program to make community colleges free, wants to double the number of nationally certified teachers and widen eligibility for Pell Grants “to reach into the middle-income families.”
“The ideals of this bill [NCLB] are admirable,” Dodd said today on a conference call with reporters. “The objections to it, rightly so, are the rigidity and lack of financing for it … But I don’t think repealing this all together and rolling back the clock to five years ago is the answer.”
To double the number of nationally certified teachers, he would pay the cost of certification provided these teachers go on to work in the neediest school districts for at least five years.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Jenny Anzelmo
Obama was compared to a rock star at the LGBT forum and received a strong welcome from the crowd. He acknowledged his experience as an African American, and how it helps him relate to the LGBT community. "When you are a black guy named Barack Obama, you know what it’s like to be on the outside." He also said, "It is important not to look at the black candidate and wonder whether or not he’s going to be more sympathetic, or less sympathetic to these issues. I’m going to be more sympathetic not because I’m black, but because this has been the cause of my life and will continue to be the cause of my life making sure that everybody is treated fairly and we have an expansive view of America, where everybody is invited in and we are all working together to create the kind of America we want for the next generation.”
The senator even had a chance to acknowledge some of the common judgments made about him. “When I talk like this by the way -- sometimes the Washington press corps rolls its eyes and says, 'Oh, he’s so naive... He’s always talking about hope.' I’m a hope monger. But I believe that."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Jenny AnzelmoIn a presidential campaign full of history-making possibilities, the Democratic candidates made history last night by participating in the first-ever televised debate devoted solely to LGBT issues, sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign and broadcast on the gay TV network LOGO.
Obama,
Edwards,
Kucinich,
Gravel,
Richardson, and
Clinton all addressed the LGBT audience (in that order).
VIDEO: With a couple of candidates absent, '08 Democratic contenders hold a forum on gay issues. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.
Biden and Dodd were the only two Democratic candidates to not attend; they each cited scheduling conflicts. Dodd's campaign released a statement yesterday saying he still wants to answer the Human Rights Campaign's questions. And while the major GOP candidates were invited for a similar forum, all of them declined.
The major issues discussed at the forum were same-sex marriage vs. civil unions, "Don't ask don't tell," and Defense of Marriage Act. While not all of the candidates were not asked each of these questions, here's an outline of their answers: CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The best way to think of Saturday's Iowa Republican straw poll is as a preseason football scrimmage. Since no delegates are actually up for grabs, the result won't count in the regular-season standings for the GOP presidential nomination. Also, some of the best players (Giuliani, McCain, and Fred Thompson) aren't competing. But like in an early preseason game, the straw poll will give us a way -- even if it's unscientific -- to gauge the strength of those who are participating.
The competitors are Sam Brownback, John Cox (who hasn't participated in any of the debates so far), Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson. And they all give individual speeches beginning at 1:45 pm ET, per the Iowa Republican Party. However, the ballot will include Giuliani's, McCain's, and Fred Thompson's names on it, even though they're not competing.
Voting lasts from 11:00 am ET to 7:00 pm ET, and here's how the process works: Voters must present a valid Iowa drivers license or other ID. Then they receive one ballot, and each person's thumb will be dipped in indelible purple ink -- a la the voting in Iraq -- to prevent a person voting more than once. And they take their ballot, voting for just one person, and then feed their ballot into a Diebold Optical Scan Machine (Ron Paul supporters have already complained about these controversial machines.) The results will be announced on Saturday at 8:00 pm ET.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Watching Tuesday's AFL-CIO debate, we wondered whether the Old Guard -- Biden and Dodd -- was going after the New Guard -- Edwards and Obama -- thereby helping Clinton in the process against her two top competitors. Well, Dodd today jabbed Clinton for saying in 2006 that she would take nuclear weapons off the table in dealing with Iran. "I was disappointed to learn that Mrs. Clinton, like Mr. Obama, would make such an unwise categorical statement about military options," Dodd said in a statement. "If nothing else, these kinds of careless statements expose the difference in the candidates' depth of experience and understanding when it comes to the complex world of foreign policy and military affairs."
Of course, Dodd today also pounced on a comment Obama made to the New York Times back in 2004, when Obama said this about how he would have voted on the Iraq war authorization had he been in the Senate in 2002: "'... I'm not privy to Senate intelligence reports,' Mr. Obama said. 'What would I have done? I don't know. What I know is that from my vantage point the case was not made.'" Said Dodd in a statement: "Senator Obama's position as a state senator rings hollow in light of the fact that he himself says he doesn't know how he would have voted as a U.S. Senator."
But the Dodd research document also left out this next paragraph in the Times piece: "But Mr. Obama said he did fault Democratic leaders for failing to ask enough tough questions of the Bush administration to force it to prove its case for war. 'What I don't think was appropriate was the degree to which Congress gave the president a pass on this,' he said."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Romney hit Obama with a prepared line during Sunday's GOP debate, saying he's gone from "Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove."
Well, the Giuliani campaign took a cue from Romney on MSNBC this afternoon and said the former Massachusetts Governor has gone from "Mr. Magoo to Yosemite Sam" on immigration. Giuliani communications adviser Jim Dyke delivered the one-liner in response to Romney saying New York was a "sanctuary city" for illegal immigrants while Giuliani was mayor of the Big Apple.
**** UPDATE **** The Romney campaign issued this response:
"In other words, there was absolutely no explanation of or rebuttal to the fact that Rudy Giuliani openly supported and administered policies that encouraged illegal immigration to sanctuary cities like New York City. Name calling, yes, but no substantive response refuting those policies."
From NBC's Mark Murray
In advance of tonight's gay-rights forum in Los Angeles, the
Obama campaign released the names of its national LGBT leadership team. One of the names on the list is Michael Bauer, a Chicago-based PR consultant. On the press release, Bauer is identified as a community organizer. But a look at Illinois
lobbying records shows that he's also a state lobbyist.
This revelation comes on the same day as a
Boston Globe report that -- despite Obama's vow not to take contributions from federal lobbyists and PACs in his bid for the presidency -- he has received donations from lobbyists in the past.
First Read reached Bauer, who said he's been a registered state lobbyist since March, working on clean coal technology in Southern Illinois. Bauer maintains that it's not inconsistent for Obama to refuse money from federal lobbyists -- but then receive help (financial or otherwise) from state lobbyists. "He has nothing to do with the issue I'm doing within the Illinois legislature," Bauer said of Obama, who serves in the US Senate. "The fact is, I'm not a federal lobbyist."
Obama spokesman Bill Burton adds that Obama had a record of reform in the Illinois legislature and, if elected president, he wants to make ethics/lobbying reform one of his first priorities. And as a symbol of his commitment to this, Obama has promised not to receive contributions from lobbyists or PACs. This is not a "perfect" promise, Burton says, but it's an "important symbol" of what he wants to do.
From NBC's Jenny AnzelmoThis afternoon the Edwards campaign held a conference call with two of Edwards’ advisers on lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender issues: Eric Stern, associate director in the Career Development Office at The University of California, Berkeley and former executive director of the National Stonewall Democrats; and Stephen Handwerk, member of the board of directors for National Stonewall Democrats.
The call previewed what Edwards will say tonight in the LOGO LGBT forum in Los Angeles. The campaign stressed Edwards' belief in fundamental equality and fairness for all, and they stressed his support of civil unions. Edwards does not support gay marriage in name, but his campaign says he supports giving all of the same legal rights of traditional marriage to same-sex couples, because “civil unions are the way to move forward in this country and get a guarantee that gay couples are treated the same under the law.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The AP is out with this story: "Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, who chastised rival Barack Obama for ruling out the use of nuclear weapons in the war on terror, did just that when asked about Iran a year ago. 'I would certainly take nuclear weapons off the table," she said in April 2006.'"
More from the story: "Her views expressed while she was gearing up for a presidential run stand in conflict with her comments this month regarding Obama, who faced heavy criticism from leaders of both parties, including Clinton, after saying it would be "a profound mistake" to deploy nuclear weapons in Afghanistan and Pakistan."
Her campaign responds that Clinton's remarks were different from Obama's. "'She was asked to respond to specific reports that the Bush-Cheney administration was actively considering nuclear strikes on Iran even as it refused to engage diplomatically,' [spokesman Phil Singer] said. 'She wasn't talking about a broad hypothetical nor was she speaking as a presidential candidate. Given the saber-rattling that was coming from the Bush White House at the time, it was totally appropriate and necessary to respond to that report and call it the wrong policy.'"
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
As noted earlier today, the South Carolina Republican Party announced that January 19 will be the date of its primary. In a conference call with reporters after the announcement, Chairman Katon Dawson said he needed to protect South Carolina's first-in-the-South tradition, something he has been committed to for two-and-a-half years. Dawson said he had to move the previously announced date of February 2 after Gov. Charlie Crist (R) moved Florida's primary up to January 29. "Florida has garnered a historical place themselves, and they are the ones that have precipitated this move."
He also explained why he made the announcement in New Hampshire, stating that South Carolina and New Hampshire will be the two first primaries in the country and he "focused on states that were counting primary votes" versus having caucuses. Dawson said he chose the 19th instead of the 12th to respect "the integrity of the process" -- meaning New Hampshire is still given its due respect in the vetting process of cutting down the field before other, larger, states do the job of nominating the next nominee.
"We wanted to retain the integrity of the process, and that's why we took the time to come to New Hampshire," Dawson said. "We think it's important in this process in states like New Hampshire and South Carolina to retain their historical preference and presidential politics, not just with 30-second sound bites but with town meetings."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Carrie DannWe found the only person in Washington who DOESN'T want to talk about the 2008 presidential race. And it's the guy whose contract is running out.
Asked at this morning's press conference to comment on the flak
Barack Obama has caught in the wake of his threats towards Al Qaeda cells in Pakistan,
President Bush repeated, as he's said before, that he's not going to play pundit while he still lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. "I suspect that over the course of the next months when I hold a press conference you'll be trying to get me to engage in presidential politics, trying to get me to opine about what candidates are saying," he said. "And hopefully I'll be disciplined enough not to fall prey to your questions, not to fall into that trap."
The tie to the 2008 race -- the questioner referenced Romney's "Dr. Strangelove" zinger about Obama -- might have allowed Bush the wiggle room to appear to stay above the fray, frustrating efforts to get a clearer answer on his approach to terror within Pakistan's borders. Bush reiterated that he's "confident" that the two governments will reach "a plan based upon actionable intelligence that will bring the top Al Qaeda targets to justice."
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
South Carolina is moving its primary up to Jan. 19 from Feb. 2. The South Carolina Republican Party made it official today at a news conference in New Hampshire in conjunction with New Hampshire officials. New Hampshire will now have to move up its primary to Jan. 12 or earlier. A state law requires New Hampshire to hold its primary at least a week before a similar event.
New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has not given an indication as to what date New Hampshire will pick. South Carolina Democrats are keeping their primary on Jan. 29, party officials said.
The next question is, will Iowa move up its caucus to remain first? "If they move, we will move," Iowa Republican Chairman Ray Hoffmann told the AP.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
With the Iowa State Fair beginning today -- and with GOP candidates making appearances there before Saturday's Ames straw poll -- here are some tidbits about the state fair, courtesy of the Iowa Democratic Party.
*** The state fair, which this year occurs from Aug. 9-19, is Iowa's largest event. The largest crowd -- 1,053,978 -- was set in 2004.
*** The fair grounds are made of over 400 acres, 160 acres of which are wooded campsites.
*** Behold, the butter cow. Per a release from the Iowa Democratic Party, one of the most well-known features of the state fair is the butter cow. "Each year, a life-size cow figure is sculpted from butter. The butter cow has been a fair staple since 1911. In 1960, butter sculptor Norma 'Duffy' Lyon created her first bovine masterpiece, she turned over the reigns last year. As the butter cow sculptor, she sculpted all six breeds of dairy cow, as well as Garth Brooks, a butter version of Grant Wood's painting American Gothic, Superman, Elvis Presley, John Wayne and a butter rendition of Leonardo DaVinci's The Last Supper. This year, Harry Potter will accompany the butter cow.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
That’s right. There are now
Romney Girls. It never ends. There are three of them. Triplets. And their first video from BarelyPolitical.com is an
attack ad on Obama Girl. But note the Stephen Colbert-like sarcasm in BarelyPolitical’s description of the girls below.
Politico reports that Romney and his wife Ann were on Fox this morning joking about the video.
“Romney [sic] said: 'There’s nothing like getting a good spot on YouTube.' Then he made one of his charming asides about how he needs to get his wife Ann to stop putting on those 'hot pants.'
“Minutes later, Ann Romney appeared in the segment and host Gretchen Carlson repeated the hot pants quip. Mitt said, 'I guess in my wildest dreams.' Ann’s response, 'Not in his wildest dreams.' CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd The
Clinton campaign, First Read has learned, has added some significant fundraising muscle as the campaign gears up for its big fall fundraising push.
The three new additions to their fundraising team include: former DNC finance director/John Kerry fundraiser Jay Dunn, former DSCC national finance director Diana Rogalle, and Lieberman 2004 fundraising adviser Fran Katz Watson. Dunn will have the title of deputy national finance director, reporting to Jonathan Mantz. Rogalle and Katz are joining the campaign as senior consultants.
The significance of these additions is twofold: One, they didn't sign up with someone else (does that mean these folks smell a winner?). Two, while the campaign has done well with their high-dollar fundraising, the second half of a presidential campaign is always tougher, so new blood (and contacts) is important.
By the way, are we going to see another mini-bandwagon push by the Clinton campaign to get other fence-sitters (either in the financial or political arenas) to get on board now?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Calendar Confusion: Later this morning, the South Carolina GOP will announce -- in New Hampshire, of all places -- its primary date, and the speculation is that it will be for Saturday, January 19, which could trigger a series of moves that would move up the early nominating contests. But this might not be the final date: A South Carolina source tells us that they don't want their primary falling more than approximately 10 days after New Hampshire.
VIDEO: NBC Politics Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the leapfrogging primary dates, the Iowa straw poll and the McCain campaign.
***
The Domino Effect: Speaking of New Hampshire, the power to set the primary date lies, of course, with Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who is supposed to show up at the South Carolina presser in Concord, NH. Gardner usually guards his non-partisan status, so it will be a big deal if he does indeed come. Contrary to the DNC's wishes, there is no official date for the New Hampshire primary. The DNC wants it on January 22, three days after Nevada's caucuses. But with South Carolina now saying it’ll be on January 19, it means Gardner will have to be no later than January 12 in order to follow state law. And what would that trigger? A move by Iowa. Again, the DNC has asked Iowa to do January 14 -- but would Iowa allow New Hampshire to go first? Everything we hear out of Iowa indicates the state does not want to move its January 14 date. But January 7 has to be looking better every day, right?
*** Even More Confusion: By the way, the announcement by South Carolina's GOP doesn't mean the South Carolina Dems will also move. In fact, SC Democratic Party chairwoman Carol Fowler tells First Read that due to the specter of DNC penalties, her state isn’t considering moving up. But with Florida crashing the party on January 29, expect the SC Dems to hint at moving too, despite what they’re saying now. Confused yet? We didn't even get into the Michigan factor or whether the DNC will sanction Florida's primary, even though the Clinton campaign is pushing hard on Florida's behalf. What does this all mean? That the pieces on the calendar chessboard -- for both campaigns and journalists -- are about to be knocked over. The biggest beneficiaries to all of this uncertainty? Clinton and Giuliani, who are both the best prepared for the February 5 Tsunami Tuesday. In particular, both New York candidates would benefit greatly if Iowa is diluted or even leapfrogged by New Hampshire.
*** Glass House Alert: When you preach purity on lobbyists and PACs, you are going to draw hypocrisy scrutiny from the press. The Boston Globe -- read by many in reform-minded New Hampshire -- does an exhaustive examination of Obama's political fundraising going back to the '90s and finds that he's certainly not had problems raising money from lobbyists and PACs in the past, even as recently as 2004. Also, don't miss the tongue-in-cheek coverage from Nevada's leading political reporter, Jon Ralston, who wonders why Carson City lobbyists are ok to sign up as supporters in Nevada but not D.C. lobbyists?
***
It’s Almost Straw Poll Time: The Iowa State Fair begins today, and most of the GOP presidential candidates who are participating in Saturday’s Ames straw poll will make an appearance there: Brownback, Hunter, and Paul participate in the Des Moines Register’s Soap Box event at the state fair, while Tommy Thompson does a radio interview from the venue. Brownback, Huckabee, and Romney also spend most of their day campaigning throughout the state.
***
“What Happens In Vegas…”: While possible calendar maneuvers could end up diminishing Nevada’s status -- as of now -- as the second contest of 2008. But that isn’t stopping some of the Democratic candidates from visiting the state. Clinton, in Las Vegas before heading to LA, speaks at the National Association of Black Journalists presidential forum, where she will unveil her plan targeted at the 4 million people ages 16-24 who are out of school or out of work. She then attends a rally with culinary workers. On Friday, Obama addresses the black journalists forum and then holds a town hall in Las Vegas.
***
On The Trail: In addition, the Democratic presidential candidates -- minus Biden and Dodd – participate tonight in gay-rights forum in Los Angeles. Elsewhere, Biden continues to make the TV rounds (on Fox & Friends and on NPR); Dodd, in New Hampshire, gives a policy speech on education; Edwards speaks at the Aspen Institute; and McCain holds a town hall meeting in New Hampshire.
*** And A Note: The morning edition of First Read won’t publish tomorrow, but will return bright and early on Monday. But for those who will need their political fix on Friday, don’t worry: We’ll have updates throughout the date on our Web site.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 2 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 25 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 72 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 89 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 100 days
Countdown to Iowa: 157 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 179 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 453 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 530 days
In the last week, the Democratic presidential candidates have traveled to Chicago to address bloggers on Saturday at the YearlyKos convention, and then back to the Windy City for Tuesday’s AFL-CIO debate/forum. And tonight, these candidates -- minus Biden and Dodd -- will make yet another stop before a liberal-leaning interest group when they appear at a forum in Los Angeles sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign, a gay-rights group.
The event begins at 9:00 pm ET, and the candidates will appear individually before a panel consisting of Human Rights Campaign president Joe Solmonese, musician Melissa Etheridge, and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart. Obviously, the issue of gay marriage will be front and center, and all the Democratic candidates except for Kucinich oppose it, yet they favor civil unions. But when it comes to gay marriage and politics -- is it us, or does it seem like 2004 was a long time ago?
In its preview of tonight’s gay forum in West Hollywood, the Los Angeles Times notes that the Pentagon and other military leaders are starting to "soften" their stance on "Don't ask, don't tell."
CONTINUED >>
Just two days before the Ames straw poll… A University of Iowa poll shows Romney with a substantial lead in the Hawkeye State over Giuliani, 26.9% to 11.3%. Fred Thompson was third with 6.5%. One-third of those questioned said they were undecided.
The Quad Cities Times reports that the Iowa GOP is doing everything it can to safeguard the integrity of the vote this Saturday. Among the things it will do to stop ballot stuffing: check for Iowa IDs. Still, "questions are being raised, particularly by supporters of Republican presidential hopeful Ron Paul, about the party’s plan to use optical-scan voting machines manufactured by Diebold Election Systems. Voting machines manufactured by the company have come under fire after California researchers found they might be vulnerable to computer hackers. Although some of Paul’s most vocal supporters are taking to radio call-in shows and online blogs to cry fraud, his campaign is not sounding alarm bells.”
ROMNEY: In an interview with
USA Today, Romney came out in support of the Iraq troop surge. "Romney would clearly prefer to talk about other things, including his support of lower taxes and his hard line on immigration. In recent days, he has been calling on the federal government to deny some funding for ‘sanctuary cities’ that decline to aggressively enforce immigration laws. He said New York was ‘the poster child for sanctuary cities’ when rival Rudy Giuliani was mayor, a designation Giuliani dismissed as inaccurate."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post: “South Carolina's Republican Party will move its 2008 presidential primary forward to Jan. 19, sources said yesterday, a decision almost certain to spark a cascade of calendar changes that could push the start of voting to New Year's Day or even to before Christmas.”
The Boston Globe says the move “could mean New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary would move to early January and the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses to as early as December… New Hampshire requires a week in between its first-in-the nation primary and the next primary, so it will have to move up its contest, which was tentatively scheduled for Jan. 22.”
The Politico’s Simon adds, “The political primary calendar for 2008 is beginning to resemble a game of bump’em cars more than an orderly way of selecting the next Democratic and Republican nominees.” He also makes this point: Near panic was set off Wednesday when some people got the incorrect notion that New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner was going to announce a new date for his state’s primary and force Iowa to hold its caucuses in December. Very reliable sources assure me this is not true. Gardner will make no such announcement and, in fact, will not announce a date until this fall or later.”
Why do we think this
New York Times story is only the beginning of the psycho-analysis of the father-son relationship between the Bushes? “The official line from the White House is that 41 … gives advice to 43 only when asked. But interviews with a broad range of people close to both presidents — including family members like the elder Mr. Bush’s daughter, Doro Bush Koch, and aides who have worked for both men, like Andrew H. Card Jr. — suggest a far more complicated father-son dynamic, in which the former president is not nearly so distant as the White House would have people believe.”
“They talk almost every morning by phone, and Mr. Bush studiously avoids saying anything critical of his son, close associates say. But he has privately expressed irritation with some of his son’s aides. At times, he has urged White House officials to seek outside advice, and he has passed on his own foreign policy wisdom to the president, even as he makes a point of saying his son’s administration is not his.”
President Bush apparently was treated for Lyme Disease last August. But the White House only revealed that fact yesterday, failing to disclose it for almost a year. “The disease showed up in the ‘past medical history’ section and in the summary” of yesterday’s results of Bush’s physical exam.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In the wake of the bridge collapse in Minnesota -- and a day after it was the first question at the AFL-CIO debate -- Clinton today unveiled a plan that would increase infrastructure spending by $3.8 billion per year. Yet Clinton noted that this amount is just about 3% more than the US currently spends on its infrastructure.
"I think we have an infrastructure crisis," she said in a conference call with reporters this afternoon, after unveiling her plan in a speech from New Hampshire. "We are seeing the results of the failure to invest in infrastructure."
But Clinton admitted that her plans is only a "down payment" on addressing the country's needs. "We have not made up our minds that this is a priority," she said. "I want to start the ball rolling."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama launched a new slick biographical ad, touting himself the candidate who can bring “unity,” who can bring both parties together. An announcer rehashes Obama’s days as a community organizer and state legislator.
The 60-second ad is a “limited buy” that will run on broadcast and cable outlets across Iowa beginning today.
CLICK MORE FOR THE FULL TRANSCRIPT
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As expected, the AFL-CIO's executive council today has announced that it's holding off making an endorsement for president. The labor federation instead said that its 55 unions are free to make their own endorsements.
But the AFL also stated that it's leaving the door open to making an endorsement at a later date.
From NBC's Joel Seidman and Mark MurrayFred Thompson's soon-to-be campaign is unveiling its top campaign staffers via press release. Earlier today, it announced that former Reagan political aide Bill Lacy, who worked on Thompson's '94 Senate campaign, was becoming the manager of his "testing the waters" committee. And it formally named Florida GOP operative Randy Enwright as national political director.
From NBC's Chris Donovan
Melissa Etheridge, scheduled to be a panelist at tomorrow's Democratic presidential forum on GLBT issues, is no stranger to the political world. She was involved in Bill Clinton's successful 1992 campaign (after which she publicly came out as lesbian at one of the inaugural balls). She headlined rallies for Al Gore in the final days of his 2000 campaign. Since 2002, she has given over $6,000 in campaign contributions to Democrats, according to the FEC's web site. And just this February, she praised her friend Gore while accepting the Oscar for her song written for his "An Inconvenient Truth."
And as she sets to question the Democratic candidates in Los Angeles, including Hillary Clinton, it might be interesting to check out what she wrote about Bill Clinton in her tell-all 2001 memoir, "The Truth Is … My Life in Love and Music."
In this little nugget, she describes her role in the 1992 campaign, and an encounter with her then-partner Julie Cypher and Bill Clinton. "At the end of 1992, Julie became very politically involved with Bill Clinton and the presidential election. As it went along, I did a couple of benefits and we did a Young Democrats fundraiser at the Santa Monica airport. Bill and Hillary were attending, but they were late so the organizers kept telling me to stall. I played song after song until they got there. Bill spoke to the crowd and, before he left later that night, he came over to say hello to me. He took one look at Julie and he started checking her out. He didn't know she was with me. All he saw was an attractive, dark-haired girl, and he just zoomed her. She was like woo! He was very charming, that former president."
From MSNBC's David Shuster
The biggest point of contention in the debate last night came stemmed from an argument Obama made recently -- the idea that he would take action against Al-Qaeda in Pakistan, if that country's leadership won't act. Several candidates criticized Obama on that point... and the fiercest exchange was over what Obama said in his recent speech.
Dodd: "If you're making a mistake today, you ought to stand up and say so. It was a mistake in my view to suggest somehow that going in unilaterally here, into Pakistan, was somehow in our interest." Obama replied: "I did not say that we would immediately go in unilaterally. What I said was that we have to work with Musharraf"
So, who is telling the truth? Judge for yourself. Here is what Obama said last week: "It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf will not act, we will."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
The GOP's game plan if
Hillary Clinton wins the nomination? It looks like it wants to create comparisons and contrasts with her husband. This morning, the Republican National Committee blasted out a press release -- entitled "HILLARY'S LIBERAL LIA-BILL-ITY?" -- noting that she distanced herself last night from NAFTA, which was one of Bill Clinton's big achievements in his presidency. The release also points out, among other things, how she has disagreed with Bill's "Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy on gays in the military.
Of course, such comparisons and contrasts could come back to bite the Republicans. After all, as we mentioned yesterday, they might find it difficult when comparing Bush's economic record versus Bill Clinton's -- even when Bush's has some positive numbers to tout.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The latest Presidential gimmick is courtesy of Obama -- who has unveiled such events as Dinner with Barack, Camp Obama and the Oprah-esque Obama Book Club. Now Obama brings you Grilling with Barack. The event will be in Iowa on Aug. 18th, and is open to 10 winners of an
online contest. Potential participants in the “BBQA,” as Obama puts it in his
video promoting the day, must submit their question via a form on the Obama’s campaign Web site along with an explanation of why the question is important to them.
Obama says in the promotional video that he wants to hold the event in Iowa “since all of you here in Iowa really like to lift the hood and kick the tires – take out your candidate for a test drive.”
He continued: “I will not only answer the question but I’ll give you your choice of a hot dog or burger -- maybe some chicken and ribs. We’re still working on the menu.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'DonnellThe White House says
President Bush has not placed a telephone call to new homerun king, Barry Bonds. Bush, an avid baseball fan and former Major League Baseball owner, extends his congratulations on the accomplishment, according to Tony Snow.
The White House would not say whether the president will place a call later, and indicated the president probably did not stay up to see the history-making moment on TV.
Bush included concern about steroid use in his State of the Union Address in 2004. The White House says the president is pleased the League is taking steps on the issue. The White House went on to say that "kids worship athletes," and expressed concern about athletes who "endanger themselves" with steroid use.
*** UPDATE *** NBC's John Yang reports that Bush has just spoken with Bonds.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** It Wasn’t 756 -- But It Had Plenty Of Fireworks: Last night’s AFL-CIO debate was hard to evaluate; it was part pep rally and part debate. But there were some great moments that we wish could have kept going, like Obama vs. everyone on Pakistan and Biden vs. Edwards on who has been the biggest union advocate. Among the front-runners, Clinton had a good night, if only because she got to stay above the fray; by continually invoking Bush and the Republicans on nearly every question, she used a stiff arm that would have made the late Walter Payton proud. Obama clearly knew what he wanted to say, and he stayed on his message. But he seemed unsure if he wanted to be a cheerleader or a debater on the stage -- yet blame the audience for that, because every time a debate started to break out, the crowd got in the way. And as expected, Edwards was the aggressor last night, but he seemed to draw the ire of more of his rivals than even Obama did.
 |
|
VIDEO: NBC's Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on outcome of the Democratic forum
***
The Others: If you don’t know it by now, Biden knows how to work a crowd. If the AFL members believed he could get the nomination, they would have been even more enthusiastic. Dodd was also hot last night as well -- but he yells a bit too much for TV, surprisingly more so than Biden. Richardson has set himself up to be the under-the-radar candidate; he's not getting involved in the bashing of Obama, Edwards and Clinton, and that could pay dividends in Iowa. And it was easily Kucinich’s debate, as the crowd ate up his calls to abolish NAFTA. Having no Gravel helped him big time.
***
The Old Guard vs. The New: Yet if last night’s debate is to be remembered for anything, it will be for the moment that Biden seemed to turn into Clinton's surrogate. He went after Obama on foreign policy and targeted Edwards on how sincere his labor stances are (his campaign also released a post-debate research document blasting Edwards). Dodd also joined the attacks on Obama (but less so on Edwards). Clearly, Washington’s old guard isn’t taking too kindly to either Obama and Edwards. And this creates a problem for the two chief Clinton challengers: They are both vying to be the anti-Hillary. But she now has some allies on stage with her.
***
Barry Bonds Politics: MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann was prescient with his Barry Bonds question last night, and it was a revealing moment for Obama. He hesitated on whether he'd invite Bonds to a White House ceremony. The cynicism in sports and politics connection was well done, but waffling on whether to invite said something, too. Given that Obama didn’t answer the question because he said Bonds hadn’t yet hit the record-breaking home run yet, we wonder if Obama will have to answer it now.
*** The Battle For Ames: With three days until the Ames straw poll, Romney goes up with a new TV ad in Iowa that asks state Republicans for their support. “Washington politicians in both parties have proven they can’t control spending, and they won’t control our borders,” he says in the ad. “I will, but I need your help to do it. So come on to Ames.” Ron Paul, using some of his $2 million-plus cash on hand, also is running a TV ad in the state. Nearly all of those competing in the straw poll -- Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Paul, and Romney -- are campaigning today in Iowa. And so is Giuliani, who isn’t competing. He holds a media availability this morning in Council Bluffs.
*** Infrastructure Politics: The first question at the debate was on infrastructure (due to the recent bridge collapse in Minnesota). And Clinton gets to carry her answer over to actual policy today, when she delivers an address on rebuilding the nation’s infrastructure from Rochester, NH. And Clinton holds a conference call with reporters afterwards. (On that call, anyone else think she’ll get the same Barry Bonds question that Obama got last night?)
VIDEO: Democratic candidates discuss the nation's crumbling infrastructure
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden does another round of media hits (on Olbermann, Hannity & Colmes, and the Daily Show); Dodd, in New Hampshire, holds a roundtable discussion on higher education and attends a fundraiser; McCain raises money in New York; Richardson is also in the Granite State with two stops, including speaking to the National Education Association of New Hampshire Summer Learning Conference; and Obama fundraises in California.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 3 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 26 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 73 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 90 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 101 days
Countdown to Iowa: 158 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 180 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 454 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 531 days
The Washington Post: “The debate, which was sponsored by the AFL-CIO, turned into the most animated encounter of the Democratic campaign, suggesting that the battle for the party's nomination may be entering a new phase, one that is likely to grow increasingly contentious after Labor Day. The candidates appeared far more willing to challenge one another directly, and in more pointed language, than in previous debates. Elbows flew throughout the night, and the challengers appeared more eager to mix it up, stoked perhaps by the enthusiasm of a large and boisterous audience.”
The Boston Globe says Democrats “clashed frequently last night on trade, terrorism, and Washington lobbyists, turning a forum meant to address labor union issues into a session filled with attacks and counterattacks on foreign policy and campaign finance.”
USA Today has the dust-up over Pakistan: Clinton criticized Obama “for saying in an Aug. 1 speech that he would consider taking military action against Pakistan if intelligence identified al-Qaeda targets there and President Pervez Musharraf would not act. ‘You shouldn't always say everything you think if you're running for president, because it has consequences across the world,’ she said… Dodd also criticized Obama. ‘Gen. Musharraf is no Thomas Jefferson,’ but he is a U.S. ally, he said. Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden joined the fray. If al-Qaeda set up a base in Iraq after a U.S. withdrawal, he said, ‘All these people who are talking about going into Pakistan are going to have to send your kids back to Iraq.’”
CONTINUED >>
The
Politico's Jonathan Martin does a C.W.-setting piece on Romney and the straw poll, noting that the sky-high expectations being set for the ex-governor were partly brought on by himself.
Darkhorse alert: Tancredo's getting some passionate crowds.
Huckabee is
vying with Brownback for the key Christian conservative constituency of Iowa.
BROWNBACK: At the Ames straw poll on Aug. 11th, Brownback will have a unique supporter by his side: Norma McCorvey, otherwise known as “Jane Roe” of the famed abortion case Roe v. Wade. "Sam Brownback is the right person, in the right place at the right time for our nation as we seek to embrace a culture of life," McCorvey said in a statement released by the Brownback campaign. "I call on pro-life Iowans to vote for Senator Brownback in Ames this Saturday. Our nation needs a president with strength, courage and moral fortitude --one who will lead our society on a path that respects human life and dignity."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: She
took aim at “unscrupulous” mortgage lenders and “said her plan involves making sure brokers are honest with their clients and licensed with their states, establishing a $1 billion fund to go toward state programs assisting families facing foreclosure and dedicating another $1 billion to organizations seeking to add affordable housing."
The Boston Globe dovetails Clinton’s speech on the mortgage crisis by giving some context. The article wraps Clinton’s, Edwards’, Obama’s, and Dodd’s plan and says, “The more the crisis ripples through the economy, the more it will help Democrats make the case that Republican economic policies have spurned middle- and lower-income families.”
EDWARDS: A somewhat surprising commitment today in Iowa for Edwards. Harkin operative Jeff Link is endorsing Edwards today, but not joining the official campaign payroll. Link's got ties to both Clinton and Obama, so the Edwards signing is a minor surprise to those in Iowa.
CONTINUED >>
President Bush travels to the Treasury Department today to have lunch with his economic advisers, and then makes a statement afterwards.
The New York Times profiles the nation’s top intelligence official, Mike McConnell, and his role in the debate over surveillance. The last several weeks have been a political education of sorts for Mr. McConnell… [He] has won praise from Democrats and Republicans alike for his efforts to overhaul the country’s byzantine intelligence structure, but his role as the White House’s most visible advocate for changing the surveillance law has brought intense criticism from those who question whether an intelligence chief should become part of a political scrum.”
The South Carolina GOP will announce its primary date tomorrow in New Hampshire in what it describes as a “key alliance” between New Hampshire and South Carolina. The DNC, however, controls the date, and currently it is set for Jan. 29th. The sticking point, apparently, is sharing that date with Florida -- something the South Carolina GOP chairman “refuses” to do. According to the Manchester Union-Leader, the speculation is that they will move it up a week to Jan. 22, which would force New Hampshire to move up to no later than Jan. 15 – due to a state law “requiring the primary to be held at least a week before any ‘similar election’.”
For those keeping track of the fight inside the DNC over whether Florida's Jan. 29th primary will count, note that the state Democratic Party officially submitted its plan to the DNC yesterday to have the Jan. 29th primary BEGIN the process of selecting the DNC's delegates, but there would also be a March event to allocate some of the delegates, too. Will that split be enough to placate Dean? Probably not, but the Clinton campaign -- in particular -- is counting on Florida's primary to become binding.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Chicago's Soldier Field hasn't seen a stiff arm like Hillary Clinton wielded tonight since the days Walter Payton played for the Bears. And if we were to give her stiff arm a nickname, we'd call it the George W. On nearly every question -- whether it was on Iraq, No Child Left Behind, NAFTA, or why lobbyists earn more money than average Americans -- Clinton responded by invoking Bush's presidency or record.
When you're up double digits in the polls, and when you receive tough questions, it's a great tactic to use. And to be fair, she isn't the only Dem who does this on tough questions. But she does it more than most.
At the end of the debate, Obama seemed to make a dig at Clinton's Bush references when he said, "It's not enough to change political parties." It's an argument that Obama, Edwards, and the other Dem candidates will have to make to strip the nomination away from her.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
This has been a hard debate to evaluate; it's part pep rally and it's part debate. There were some GREAT moments that we desperately wanted to keep going, like everyone vs. Obama and Biden vs. Edwards.
VIDEO: Watch the entire Democratic forumIf this debate is remembered for anything, it will be for the moment that Joe Biden turned into Hillary Clinton's surrogate. He went after Obama on foreign policy and targeted Edwards on how sincere his labor stances are.
In fact, Dodd seemed to also take part in the attacks on Obama (less so on Edwards). But clearly, the old guard of Washington are not taking kindly to either Obama and Edwards. The problem for the two chief Clinton challengers, though, is that they are fighting to be the same person, the anti-Hillary. And Clinton, now, has a lot of supporters on stage with her, including Dodd and Biden. It's a fascinating dynamic that I think is developing in this primary. But how long can Edwards and Obama be allies and how comfortable will Dodd and Biden be carrying Clinton's water?
Let's get to some candidate-by-candidate thoughts:
-- Clinton had a good night, if only because she didn't have to level the attacks on Obama and Edwards; she got to stay above the fray.
-- Obama clearly knew what he wanted to say tonight and stayed on his message; But he seemed unsure if he wanted to be a cheerleader on stage or a debater. And, frankly, blame the audience, every time a debate started to break out, the crowd got in the way.
-- Edwards tried to be aggressive tonight and he's definitely the angry populist but, wow, he seems to have drawn the ire of more of his foes tonight than even Obama.
-- Biden does crowds well; I bet if the members believed he could get the nomination, they'd be more enthusiastic.
-- Dodd was hot tonight as well... but he yells a bit too much for TV... surprisingly more so than Biden.
-- Richardson is going to be the under-the-radar candidate; it's obvious; he's not getting involved in the bashing of Obama, Edwards and Clinton and that could pay dividends in Iowa.
-- Kucinich: Easily his best debate; Having no Gravel helped him big time.
I'll have more after the spin room dance.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Kucinich whipped out the funniest line of the night: "I'm the Sea Biscuit of this campaign" referring to the underdog champion horse. Was that rehearsed? Did he know this was his last question?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Edwards repeated his, "We have to stop playing nice" with drug companies, et al, on health care.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Chuck already mentioned how Biden seems to be doing Clinton's dirty work for her. Well, here's some more proof. The Biden campaign just issued a research document noting that Edwards supported North Carolina's Right to Work law when he was running for the Senate in 1998.
“Tonight, John Edwards said that he claimed to be a leader on union issues throughout his career," said Biden communications director Larry Rasky in a statement. "The public record does not square with Sen. Edwards’ memory.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Biden tried to relive his famed monosyllabic, "Yes" on an answer. Not as strong a response from the crowd this time, but interesting to note.
From NBC's Mark MurrayAsked what Congress has accomplished so far this year, Kucinich only listed the legislation he is sponsoring (on health care, Iraq). He said the Democrats in November 2006 had a major responsibility to end the war in Iraq, and they haven't fulfilled that promise. Wonder what Nancy thinks of that....?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A lukewarm response this time for Edwards' call to rid DC of lobbyists. "America needs change," he said. "We don't need lobbyists in Washington, DC."
From NBC's Mark Murray
In the lightning round, Clinton was just asked why lobbyists -- from whom she'll accept campaign contributions because they represent real Americans -- make more money than average Americans. Didn't really attempt to answer it.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Biden's doing Clinton's dirty work tonight. He took the first shot at Obama and he took the first shot at Edwards.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJoe Biden is offering up MORE personal info than he has at any other debate; It was a smart move by Obama during the last debate and it's working well for Biden tonight.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Biden's pander singling out Jesse Jackson fell on LIVE ears. Jesse Jackson is in the audience.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThe pandering is actually kicking it up a notch; who knew that was possible. Frankly, having a break after the Obama spat in the first section was necessary.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
Clinton got rolling with maybe her strongest moment, answering questions from the audience. She recognized the woman whose husband died in the Sago Mines, then called up some key labor points -- met by strong applause.
From NBC's Andrew MertenDuring the ABC debate on Sunday, Giuliani said that none of the Democratic candidates have used the words "Islamic extremists." Hillary did while answering the question about Pakistan.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Andrew Merten
Here's their actual exchange over Pakistan... Obama said, I find it amusing that those who helped to authorize and engineer the biggest foreign policy in our generation are now criticizing me for making sure we are on the right battlefield and not the wrong battlefield in the war against terrorism. Chris [Dodd], respectfully, and you and I are close friends, but the fact is, you obviously didn't read my speeech because what I said is that we have to refocus, get out of Iraq, make certain that we care helping Pakistan deal with Al Qaeda, Afghanistan as well, in the hills of Pakistan. But ... Chris, if we have actionable intelligence on Al Qaeda operatives including bin Laden and president Musharraf who cannot act, then we should. I think that's just common sense."
Said Clinton: "Well, I do not believe people running for president should engage in hypotheticals and it may well be that the strategy we have to pursue on the basis of actionable intelligence -- but remember we've had some real difficult experience with actionable intelligence... But I think it is a very big mistake to telegraph that and to destabilize the Mushareff regime, which is fighting for its life against Islamic extremists, who are in bed with al-Qaeda and Taliban. And remember, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. The last thing we want is to have al-Qaeda like followers in charge of Pakistan and having access to nuclear weapons. So, you can think big, but remember, you shouldn't always say everything you think if you're running for president because it can have consequences across the world, and we don't need that right now."
From NBC's Mark MurrayWe missed it earlier, but it has been brought to our attention that Obama referred to the "president" of Canada when talking about NAFTA -- when that country actually has a prime minister.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton took more of a swipe at the CIA than she did Obama. Obama used the words "actionable intelligence" on Pakistan. Clinton tonight said (roughly): If there's actionable intelligence then there might be an action, but we all know how actionable intelligence worked out.
Does that mean she largely agreed with Obama -- just didn't like that he actually said it out loud?
From NBC's Mark Murray
...on the question of Pakistan....Obama, defending his comments on Pakistan, brought up his colleagues' votes for the Iraq war. And then Clinton delivered this line (approximate), which seemed aimed at the fact that Obama's words have come back to bite him: "You shouldn't always say everything that's on your mind." That remark produced boos from the crowd.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama's got them fightin' gloves on tonight. He called attacks on him "amusing." He shows he's got a bit of that fighter strut in him. Good up against the ropes.
From NBC's Chuck ToddLook for the Republicans to make major hay out of the fact that most of the candidates refused to deal with the al Qaeda hypothetical.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There ya go, Duncan Hunter. Dodd praised the troops -- and made a point of it. Make a note of it.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBTW, the pandering to the crowd in that first section was just unbelievable... all-time high for this campaign to date.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThis the first debate where Kucinich seems to have impressed me; He actually seems comfortable and that line about digging a hole to China was hilarious. Maybe it's due to the absence of his gadfly buddy, Mike Gravel. At any rate, give Kucinich his due.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Watch Clinton closely in who she praises; she just praised Biden; is she fishing for an eventual endorsement?
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton is calling for a "broad reform" of NAFTA and other trade agreements. She did not say scrap it. As for the rest of the field: Richardson appeared to duck saying whether he'd do anything to reform or scrap NAFTA; Obama called for amending NAFTA by noting, BTW, that he'd call a couple of world leaders; Biden seems to want to amend it; Dodd wants modify it; Edwards says "fix it," minor surprise he didn't say "scrap it"? Edwards took a DIRECT shot at Clinton with the "Fortune" magazine shot. Kucinich is the only one to say scrap NAFTA.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton's message is get on board. She's at it again, painting herself the most electable, the inevitable front-runner -- even though she might not necessarily do everything big labor wants.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Kucinich said he would in his first week as president, tell Mexico and Canada that the US is withdrawing from NAFTA and the WTO. He whooped up the crowd. Yet another pander moment.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Note that Giuliani's name was the first to be brought up when Biden said he "can't wait to debate Rudy Giuliani" on national security. Is Biden playing strategist and saying Giuliani is the GOP front-runner? Or is he going to be the Dems GOP whipping boy as Obama was at the Republican debate.
From NBC's Mark MurrayAsked how she would fix NAFTA -- which her husband signed -- Clinton said that the US needs to have a broad reform on how we do trade, and proposed having something like a "trade prosecutor." She also lashed out at the Bush Administration, saying she didn't vote for CAFTA. But she didn't mention her husband's role, saying only that NAFTA's implementation "has hurt American workers."
From NBC's Mark Murray
In Richardson's shout-out to organized labor, he added: "I will continue taking your financial support." The line got some laughs.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A little context on the question that was just asked...
Obama voted YES on House Bill 1284 on Nov. 30, 2000 on renovations on Soldier Field after apparently not being sure how he'd vote even that day, according to a Chicago Sun Times story previewing the vote:
"At this point, I'm persuaded that this is not a bad deal for the state. Where I think the Bears need to do more work is persuade me it's a good deal for city residents," said Sen. Barack Obama (D-Chicago), who has not made up his mind on the stadium vote.
"I think the city is obviously getting something back from this deal in terms of overall improvements in the area. But whether that sufficiently makes up for the huge amounts of money flowing to the Bears and the McCaskeys is an open question." (CHICAGO SUN-TIMES, 11/30/00)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddJohn Edwards clearly wants to talk about lobbyists; Obama wants to talk about national security; Clinton seemed the most comfortable staying on the subject matter of infrastructure.
On a question on infrastructure, Edwards repeated his challenge -- that seems clearly aimed at Clinton -- for candidates not to accept money from lobbyists.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Is there anyone better prepared to speak at a football stadium than Joe Biden? He's got a speech pattern that works well outside; not sure how it comes across on TV, though.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton started with a pander line of being a Bears fan and invoking that her dad woulda been proud of his little girl on the 10-yard-line. She did something similar with her YearlyKos Cubs' line that she still has a "No lights at Wrigley Field" T-shirt.
Not to be out done, Obama welcomed the crowd to Chicago -- the "home of the NFC champion Bears."
Obama: "Welcome to Chicago ... home of the NFC Championship Bears."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Obama sort of dodged the first question and decided to focus solely on Iraq and whether we're safer now or not after 9/11. Interesting decision on his part; clearly he'd like to have a conversation about foreign policy tonight. The question was NOT designed to elicit a foreign policy answer.
From NBC's Chuck ToddCorrect me if I'm wrong, but I think Hillary Clinton made the first reference of this campaign to her brothers... with the noting that her late father would have been proud that one of his children was on the Bears' 10-yard line.
From a candidate....Clinton said in her first question "My late father was a fanatic Bears fan."
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWatching from Washington... looks like the trophy presentation at a big game. Sweeney has a blazer patch and everything.
From NBC's Mark MurrayObama, Clinton, Edwards and -- yes -- Kucinich got the biggest applause lines from the crowd in Olbermann's introduction, even though the crowd was instructed to hold off their applause until the end.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
SOLDIER FIELD -- Well, the weather cooperated (I think); Why, "I think"? Because it's still hot... but rain would have been a major downer... This certainly is a more unique debate than anything online. We're in a football stadium; if only Brent Musberger were doing the P.A. right now to announce that "YOU ARE LOOKIN' LIVE, At SOLDIER FIELD in Chicago..."
Anyway, expect this forum to turn into a debate.
BTW, it's hot, with a capital "H." Biden just now on stage asked, "Man, where are THOSE air conditioners..." The candidates will have cool air pumped on the stage. After all, they are going to be standing up there for more than 90 minutes.
From NBC's Mark Murray... Giuliani? His campaign's communications director put out this statement on the about-to-start AFL-CIO forum: "Debate after debate, the Democrats ignore the threat of Islamic terrorists and fail to address the Terrorists' War on Us. Yet they have no problem talking about raising taxes on the American people. Each of the leading Democratic candidates has made campaign promises that will lead to tax hikes. It's about time they play it straight with voters and are honest about how much their tax hikes will cost the American public."
From NBC's Mark MurrayJust a reminder that your First Read team will be live-blogging tonight's AFL-CIO forum, which airs on MSNBC beginning at 7:00 pm ET. Chuck is there on the ground at Soldier Field, while Domenico and I will be watching from our offices here in DC.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Possible blogger-in-chief Fred Thompson has a new commentary on his Web site -- this one on the economy. Outside of touting Bush's tax cuts, Thompson doesn't offer any concrete policies. But he makes this eyebrow-raising suggestion: that Bush's economic record was as good, or even better, than Clinton's.
He writes, "If you're generally predisposed to not support tax cuts and economic growth, you're probably satisfied that the U.S. economy isn't bragged on more. But you'd also be out of step with Americans [sic] traditional optimism, and out of step with reality, too... Since the spring of 2003, the economy has had an average growth of over 3%, 8.2 million jobs have been created, and the inflation rate has stayed low. The current unemployment rate, 4.6%, is a full percentage point below what it averaged during the 1990s."
More: "People have pointed out that journalists were trumpeting economic statistics during the Clinton administration that were not as good as those we have now."
Now wait a second...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In a rare display of emotion, Clinton began her speech on rising home foreclosures this morning by imploring the audience and members of the media to help a New Hampshire woman who is losing her home.
"I don't know whether there is anybody in this audience or anyone who through the media might be following this who can do anything to help Christy and her family, but I hope somebody will try," Clinton said, in a softened, subdued voice. "The bank actually bought the home at higher than market value, so maybe if somebody with the bank, or with someone associated with Ameriquest, which started this downward spiral, could step forth and try to show some humanity and compassion. That would be a good way to start."
Speaking in a school gymnasium in New Hampshire, Clinton said one of the root causes of home foreclosure is an affordability gap because wages have been stagnant while housing prices "have been going literally through the roof."
CLICK MORE TO READ DODD'S "I DID IT FIRST" RESPONSE
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Joel Seidman
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said today that he will decide by the end of October whether he will enter the presidential race.
On NBC's "Today” this morning, Gingrich said, "There will be a yes or no by the end of October" and he reiterated that at the National Press Club in DC.
VIDEO: Newt Gingrich, on NBC's Today Show, talks about the 2008 presidential race.
Prior to his decision deadline, Gingrich said he was planning to float some ideas on the Internet. "We are planning to have American solutions workshops on September 27 to 29th,” he said, “nationwide on the Internet, open to everybody for free."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Huckabee was also interviewed by NBC’s Matt Lauer on MSNBC, and touted himself as a “Washington Outsider,” striking a tone somewhat similar to Obama’s and Edwards.’
VIDEO: Mike Huckabee tells MSNBC he hopes to convince voters he is the outside-the-Beltway candidate who can change the way Washington works.“One thing I do see is a separation between where I stand and where these other candidates stand,” Huckabee said. “Most of them are from Washington; people are beginning to be real clear -- they don’t want another Washington person because Washington has failed. They haven’t delivered real answers for the problems that Americans face.”
When asked about his plans for competing in the Ames Straw Poll this Saturday, Huckabee referenced his Arkansas hometown, saying, “We’re going to be there with Hope watermelons. If nothing else brings them our way -- 150-pound watermelon should do it.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Just hours before tonight’s AFL-CIO forum in Chicago, Edwards today reiterated his pro-labor stances and criticism of trade agreements like NAFTA during an interview with NBC’s Matt Lauer. He also emphasized that he was the one who prompted the debate on lobbyist campaign contributions over the weekend at the YearlyKos convention.
VIDEO: John Edwards tells MSNBC why he wants to eliminate lobbyists.
“I think that we can lead on this -- the Democratic presidential candidates and the Democratic Party at large, by saying, ‘We’re not part of this Washington insider crowd, and we’re not taking their money, period,’” Edwards said from Soldier Field, the site of tonight’s forum.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Courtney Kube
The number of US troops in Iraq has hit its highest level since the beginning of the war, with about 162,000 US forces on the ground there. But keep in mind that the armed forces are in the middle of a transition, with three brigades re-deploying and preparing to re-deploy right now. Some of the replacement brigades are already in Iraq, so the overlapping soldiers have caused the bump in force levels.
Pentagon spokesperson Bryan Whitman chalked up the increase to "normal rotations," citing the fact that the troop levels have hovered around 158,000 for the past three months.
The details: The 36th and the 25th Combat Aviation Brigades are both re-deploying now, and the 13th Sustainment Command is preparing to re-deploy now that their replacement brigade is completely on the ground. The 36th has about 2,700 soldiers; the 25th has about 2,500; and the 13th has more than 5,000 soldiers -- for a total of more than 10,000 soldiers who will be transitioning and re-deploying over the next six weeks.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Da Dems: In the words of Brent Musberger (oh how it cringes some of us to quote him), "YOU'LL BE LOOKIN' LIVE, From Soldier Field in Chicago..." -- home of Da Bears -- where the Democratic presidential candidates participate tonight in the first non-Mike Gravel debate, er AFL-CIO forum, moderated by MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann, which airs on MSNBC beginning at 7:00 pm ET. While the last Democratic debate took place just two weeks ago, much has happened since then, including the Minnesota bridge collapse; the Clinton-Obama spat over talking with world leaders; Obama’s remarks on Pakistan and his later comment on the use of nuclear weapons there; Edwards’ challenge to his rivals not to take lobbyist money; and Clinton’s defense of lobbyists. So who will be the aggressor tonight? All signs point to Edwards being that guy, since labor is more important to his primary campaign than either of the two Dem front-runners. Will Obama be as aggressive or will he want to keep a lower profile tonight, hoping Edwards does his dirty work? Fasten your seatbelts.
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VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on tonight's Democratic forum in Chicago.
*** In A League Of Her Own: Just in time for tonight’s forum, a new USA Today/Gallup poll has Clinton with a commanding lead over Obama and Edwards (48%-26%-12%). Clinton’s 22-point advantage over Obama, in fact, is nearly double her lead from three weeks ago -- before the two Democrats began trading barbs over foreign policy. Now we know why the Clinton and Obama camps traded memos yesterday over the significance of the national polls: Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn penned a missive touting her lead in those polls, while Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded by dismissing them, pointing instead to Obama's relative strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. Speaking of Penn, could he come up as a subject at the AFL forum? Today’s Los Angeles Times quotes leading labor officials who aren’t too pleased that the PR firm he heads has represented anti-union companies. Of course, Clinton's more difficult defense tonight may not be Penn, but rather her husband's record on trade. Remember, of all the Democratic interest groups, the one group where Bill Clinton isn't necessarily an asset is labor.
*** Is Obama In Trouble? Whatever any of us thought about whether he was getting comfortable going toe-to-toe with Clinton, there's plenty of evidence that Clinton is the candidate with momentum, at least nationally. Look for Clinton supporters to argue that the dust-up on foreign affairs has hurt Obama nationally, particularly in the area of electability. Also, don't miss the Quad Cities coverage of Obama today -- it indicates he's still being put on the defensive regarding his Pakistan-terrorism speech, at least with Iowans. By the way, why did the Obama campaign allow the perception to linger that he was somehow sending troops into Pakistan? It isn't what he said, but it is the perception and the Quad Cities paper notes it. Contrast how slowly the campaign has put this "he'll invade Pakistan" storyline away with how quickly they beat back the "Obama's a Muslim" chatter. Put it this way: Obama's had better press days, and today's not one of them. By the way, why does the chattering class give Romney more of a pass for his poor national poll numbers than Obama or Edwards? That USA Today/Gallup survey has him in fourth at 8%, behind Giuliani at 33%, Fred Thompson at 21%, and McCain at 16%.
*** Wearing the Union Label: No interest group worked harder to elect a Democrat in the last two presidential elections than organized labor, even if it eventually came up short in these contests. And perhaps no interest group has more to gain from placing a Democrat in the White House in January 2009 -- especially after the Bush Administration’s appointments to the National Labor Relations Board and stringent reporting requirements Yet it’s unclear how big labor’s role will be in the Democratic primaries. Back in 2003-4, Gephardt and Dean won most of the big union endorsements, and we know how those campaigns fared. It’s unlikely the AFL-CIO will end up endorsing a candidate (which requires support from two-thirds of affiliated unions), meaning that the individual unions will be free to make their own endorsements.
*** On The Trail: Before the AFL forum, Clinton delivers a policy address on home ownership from Derry, NH; Obama holds a rally at Soldier Field; and Richardson, in Iowa, becomes the latest Democratic candidate to unveil his health-care plan. Also, with just a few days until the Ames straw poll, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Hunter are all in Iowa. And McCain is in Michigan. By the way, what will be the tailgating beverage of choice tonight at Soldier Field: Old Style or Pabst?
*** And It’s Super Tuesday! For more on these events -- and especially tonight’s forum -- tune into another installment of MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage. Also, Dodd appears on MSNBC’s Hardball’s preview of the forum beginning at 5:00 pm ET.
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 4 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 27 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 74 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 91 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 102 days
Countdown to Iowa: 159 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 181 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 455 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 532 days
The
Washington Post's Balz looks at Edwards' attempt to unify labor behind his candidacy. "Labor officials begin this campaign cycle in a more combative frame of mind, feeling they have been burned by candidates who check the right boxes on questionnaires but then do not fight hard for labor's interests once in office."
Click here for more on MSNBC's Super Tuesday political coverage and tonight's Democratic forum in Chicago.
Bloomberg News
also notes Edwards' courtship of labor support, and it has an anecdote about Teamsters' president James Hoffa being so smitten by Edwards' position that he decided to ask both Clinton and Obama whether they agreed with Edwards. But is that good for Edwards? Isn't this Hoffa anecdote proof that many in Big labor don't want to blindly support Edwards but are hoping to use him as a way to keep both Obama and Clinton from running away from labor's key issues?
Also in the article: "Hillary Clinton … has already put some distance between herself and the free-trade policies of the administration of her husband, former President Bill Clinton. Edwards's plank may force her to go further, starting tonight with the Democratic presidential candidates' forum before the AFL-CIO, the nation's largest labor federation… Tonight's AFL-CIO forum could be important for Obama, 46, who hasn't said a great deal about trade. He has said Nafta should be renegotiated and has broken with businesses that want to lower barriers to trade and capital… Obama, like Edwards and Clinton, also calls for labor and environmental provisions in trade accords and policies that address workers' interests, not just those of big business, without being as tough or as specific as Edwards."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The
Washington Post examines her foreign policy positions, beyond just her shift on the war. "Clinton advisers say they see her rising on parallel tracks: among liberals who believe her when she says she would end the war, and among centrists who believe she is ‘tough enough’ to defend the country… Advisers to Clinton believe that her recent foreign policy moves have only made her more competitive, and they point to substantive steps she has taken, including introducing legislation requiring the Pentagon to report on its planning, co-sponsoring legislation to deauthorize the war and challenging Undersecretary of Defense Eric Edelman to explain whether the Pentagon had a strategy to withdraw troops." The piece also includes this positive quote from, of all people, the Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol. “‘Obama,’ he said, ‘is becoming the antiwar candidate, and Hillary Clinton is becoming the responsible Democrat who could become commander in chief in a post-9/11 world.’”
The Wall Street Journal previews Clinton's speech on mortgage policy today. Clinton "is proposing a package of measures that would impose new disclosure requirements on mortgage brokers and curb their ability to dictate lending terms. Specifically, Mrs. Clinton is planning to say today that she would force brokers to state their fees in plain language, require a full disclosure of monthly tax and insurance costs for subprime loans, and ban prepayment penalties on all home mortgages. This latter proposal could shake up the industry, one analyst said."
Edwards and Obama “tag teamed” Clinton in Iowa on the issue of lobbying yesterday, writes the NY Daily News. CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI:
Newsday covers Giuliani's adoption speech yesterday and notes his attempt to win over pro-life conservatives. How do you do it? “‘You do it by looking for common ground,’ Giuliani said. ‘The common ground here is that I have already a definable record of increasing adoptions and decreasing abortions. I would expand that nationally.’”
Even though he’s skipping the Ames straw poll, the Washington Post’s Balz notes that he’s campaigning hard in the Hawkeye State. “His stops in Iowa and today, and his promise to audiences who turned out to hear him this weekend to return frequently, suggest that his campaign team has every intention of trying to make this state competitive. The same appears even more the case for New Hampshire.”
Giuliani conceded that a reason he is not competing strongly for the Ames straw poll is, "We didn't think we had the resources to do both and do it justice, because we started [campaigning in Iowa] somewhat later,” the Des Moines Register reports. “We thought we would be too far behind to catch up with regard to the straw poll, so we would put all our emphasis on the caucuses.” CONTINUED >>
The
USA Today/Gallup poll is the latest national
survey to show Clinton increasing her lead in the national primary, edging incredibly close to 50%. Also of note, Giuliani's poll lead in the GOP race is smaller but also solid. More: Clinton's got a net-negative favorable rating (which isn't new for Gallup), but also check out Obama's UNFAV rating rise. His FAV/UNFAV ratio is now worse than Giuliani's, something that puts a dent in the argument Obama supporters make that he'll make a more likeable general election candidate. That said, his FAV rating is ever so slightly higher than Edwards.
The Washington Post looks at the art of bundling. “The bundlers are under their own kind of pressure to produce for their candidates. And they pass it on -- corporate executives hitting up employees, real estate developers seeking checks from vendors and law partners prevailing upon less-senior lawyers. One sign of where this pressure -- direct and indirect -- is applied is the rising number of contributions from secretaries, administrative assistants and executive assistants for whom a $1,00
