September 2007 - Posts
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
CONCORD, N.H. -- Sen. Barack Obama may still shy away from directly attacking Sen. Hillary Clinton by name, but in Concord today, he referenced her husband to distinguish his experience from those who have spent too many years in Washington.
"I remember what was said years ago by a candidate running for President." He said, “The same old experience is not relevant. You can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience."
"Well that candidate was Bill Clinton. And I think he was absolutely right."
Obama toughened his lines on why "playing the game in Washington" was detrimental, tying those who taut their beltway credentials to the deaths of thousands of American troops in iraq.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddFormer Speaker Newt Gingrich has decided not to run for president. Gingrich spokesperson Rick Tyler said the conservative icon was given legal advice yesterday that said a presidential campaign would have jeopardized the 527 status of American Solutions should Gingrich had remained involved. Exploring a run for president and continuing his work with American Solutions were legally incompatible and Gingrich chose his American Solutions project. All work that was supposed to go into the presidential exploration has been permanently halted.
While Tyler didn't say it, Gingrich basically was prevented from running for president by John McCain since the McCain-Feingold campaign finance regulations have made mixing political projects very difficult.
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliLONDONDERRY, N.H. -- Mike Huckabee let his bass guitar do the talking as he kicked off a weekend trip to the Granite State by jamming at a local bar here.
Huckabee traded his band, Capitol Offense, for local rockers Mama Kicks Friday night as he played before a crowd mixed with supporters and curious onlookers. "Would you like a president who has pardoned Keith Richards?" asked Fred Bramante, Huckabee's state co-chairman, as he introduced the former Arkansas governor. "Would you like a president who knows how to rock?"
The performance at Whippersnappers was a limited engagement; Huckabee played seven songs, including "Born to Be Wild," "Jailhouse Rock" and "Sweet Home Alabama." He didn't know the set list before he got on stage, but seemed to have no trouble keeping up. "I just had to follow them," he said.
Huckabee was joined on stage for three songs by former Boston guitarist Barry Goudreau. Boston's Tom Scholz was also on hand. "I couldn't believe I met those guys," Huckabee said after. "I was like speechless. I really was like a little kid."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
It's not every day that a hunky actor leaves a message on my cell phone.
TV actor and noted eye candy James Denton, better known as the plumber from hit series Desperate Housewives, recorded an audio message for supporters of John Edwards, who he'll be stumping for this weekend along with Edwards' daughter Cate. Per my voice mailbox, he's in Iowa this weekend, and he'd "love to meet" me (and everyone else on the phone list) "along the way."
"It's so important that we have a president who actually listens to the American people," says Denton in the recording, "and who has the backbone to stand up to special interests and fight to make sure every American has the opportunities he had."
"John's has been doing this all his whole life, and that's exactly what he'll do as our president."
Oh, and he looks forward to meeting me this weekend.
Okay, Jim. But I have to be home by ten-thirty or my dad will KILL me.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Huckabee has just added a stop on his New Hampshire tour this weekend. He's taking Concord hair salon owner David Holden up on his offer to get a $400 haircut, with the proceeds going to autism research. Holden had invited all campaigns to take part after Edwards' expensive grooming was made public earlier this year. Holden said another candidate had expressed interest in coming, but Huckabee will be the first to actually stop by his Main Street Avenue salon when he comes Saturday morning.
"We're pretty excited to have a national candidate come," said Holden, owner of Hair Biz Salon. "We're not interested in poking fun at John Edwards ... The issue really is about giving exposure to the candidates and about giving exposure to autism research." Debra Vanderbeek, Huckabee's New Hampshire campaign manager, said she doesn't know whether Huckabee actually needs a haircut, but wanted to make a contribution.
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Prosecutors, in their continuing influence-peddling investigation of convicted super lobbyist Jack Abramoff, have issued subpoenas to California Republican Rep. John Doolittle and five of his staff members, seeking office records dating back more than 10 years.
Doolittle's attorney David G. Barger argued that the U.S. Constitution protects Members of Congress from legal inquiries into legislative acts. "These efforts raise serious Constitutional issues going to the very core of our separation of powers created by the Founding Fathers," Barger said in a statement.
Barger said the prosecutors wanted "virtually every record including legislative records for the congressman for the past 11 years."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli and NBC's Chuck Todd
The New Hampshire filing period has just been announced and it is Oct. 15 to Nov. 2nd. This doesn't mean we know what the primary date will be; it simply means that Nov. 2nd is the last day Al Gore or Newt Gingrich can file.
*** UPDATE *** It will likely be another month until we know the date of the New Hampshire Primary.
Secretary of State Bill Gardner announced this afternoon that the filing period for the primary will begin Monday, October 15, and end Friday, November 2. That means Gore and Gingrich, if they want to participate in the first-in-the-nation primary, must make up their mind in the next month.
NH law calls for the filing period to be the first Monday through the third Friday of the November. That’s when it was in 2003, for the primary held January 27, 2004. Gardner said in a phone interview this afternoon that moving the filing period up three weeks does not necessarily indicate that the primary would move likewise. “Nothing will happen now at least until the filing period begins,” Gardner said of his timeline for an announcement.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
In a memo obtained by NBC News/National Journal, Edwards campaign manager David Bonior tried to reassure supporters that the campaign made the decision to accept public financing on principle, not because it was struggling financially.
"It became clear if we didn't lead by example, no one would," Bonior wrote.
An aide to the campaign expounded: "He's been thinking about it for a while now and watching Clinton on the Sunday shows talk about how public financing was the answer to all this, [we] figured we'd call her bluff."
In the memo, Bonior explained that Edwards would still operate comfortably within its four-state strategy, which the campaign has previously said would cost $40 million.
"This in no way handicaps us in the early primary states, and it does not put us at a disadvantage going into the general election," he wrote.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Lombardo Consulting Group, of DC, put together pretty comprehensive look at this election based on publicly available survey data since 2005.
Some bullet points from LCG’s report:
-- Hillary Clinton has taken command of the Democratic nomination for President.
--The Obama campaign is becoming less and less relevant with each passing day.
--Rudy Giuliani is running a general election campaign built on his “electability” and no-one on the Republican side is challenging this premise.
--Romney’s advertising-fueled, early lead in Iowa and NH is eroding.
--Thompson may regret going on Leno instead of debating in NH.
--If McCain is to come back from the dead it will happen in New Hampshire.
--The Giuliani campaign won the award for best tactical maneuver in September
--Polling indicates that Republican primary voters are substantially more satisfied with the GOP candidates they have to chose from then they were in July.
--On the other hand, voters still know very little about the candidates.
--A just released CBS News survey shows that job approval rating for the Democratic-controlled Congress is at 27% which is 6% BELOW the President’s job approval rating.
--Michigan matters and the media will amplify this.
--Every eventual GOP nominee since 1980 has won South Carolina. (Yes, they also won either NH or Iowa but the fact is that South Carolina may be more important than either of those two early states.)
From NBC’s Andy Merten
Obama spoke this afternoon at Howard University here in Washington to lay out his policy proposals to address the disparities in America’s criminal justice and voting systems. He was met by a wildly enthusiastic audience at the historically black university’s fall convocation ceremony, and called for new measures to advance civil rights.
“It’s not enough just to look back in wonder of how far we’ve come -- I want us to look ahead with a fierce urgency of how far we have left to go,” Obama said, citing Thurgood
Marshall, Martin Luther
King, Jr., and the everyday people who participated in the Civil Rights Movement.
But on top of the strong and lofty rhetoric that has become a trademark of Obama’s “hope” and “change” message, the Illinois senator used his forum today to present a list of policy proposals to tackle today’s civil rights shortcomings. His approach is five-pronged: (1) rid the Department of Justice of “political cronies” and instead staff the civil rights division with qualified attorneys; (2) create a voting rights division within the DOJ to track and prosecute voter fraud and intimidation; (3) recruit more qualified public defenders by providing college and law school loan compensation as incentives for new attorneys; (4) close the disparity between punishment for crack-cocaine and powder cocaine; and (5) review mandatory minimums, offering first-time, non-violent drug offenders the chance to serve their sentence in rehab instead of jail, when appropriate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
When veteran field organizer Moses Mercado joined Obama’s campaign, but his hire is “making waves,” the Washington Post reports, because of his “other line of work -- as a lobbyist with Ogilvy Government Relations who is registered to represent several dozen big-name clients, including the National Rifle Association, the Carlyle Group, the Blackstone Group, Monsanto, Pfizer Inc., United Health Group, Sempra Energy and Constellation Energy.”
More: “His resume seems to contradict one of Obama's central themes on the campaign trail -- that as an outsider he can fend of the powerful business interests that he has argued have contributed to the income gap between rich and poor and has frustrated attempts to address issues such as high prescription drug costs and global warming.”
The campaign’s response: “They have not settled on exactly what role Mercado will play, but he will not take on any job until he has ceased his lobbying work. Obama aides said yesterday no one can work on the campaign and still be registered on behalf of clients as a lobbyist, and Mercado will not be exempted from that requirement.”
From NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan
HANOVER, N.H. -- In a speech to students at Dartmouth University Wednesday, Obama's New Hampshire's State Director told students that a win in the Granite State could be decided by the youth vote. "If we can get two to three thousand extra votes from you guys that could be four to five, six, seven percent of the vote," Matt Rodriguez said.
Rodriguez pushed students to register and vote in New Hampshire and to encourage their friends and dorm mates to do the same. His speech reflected a campaign strategy to increase turnout among young voters in New Hampshire. Obama's campaign has five dedicated college organizers to get out the vote on campuses across the state. Their efforts appear to be paying off at least at Dartmouth, where Obama signs and t-shirts are ubiquitous across the picturesque New England campus.
But the Obama campaign's emphasis on campaigning among college students and young voters has raised eyebrows, especially in Iowa where the youth vote is not seen as a constituency that can be relied upon to turnout. "If it's a battle between
Hillary and Barack, it doesn't take a lot to win -- 30,000 votes,” Rodriguez said. “Think about what a few thousand young people would mean.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
Check out the "Senator A" vs. "Senator B" sidebar in this column by National Journal’s Jonathan Rauch.
Here are two quotes. One by Clinton, one by Obama. Can you tell which senator said what?
Senator A: “The best way to protect our security and to pressure Iraq's leaders to resolve their civil war is to immediately begin to remove our combat troops. Not in six months or one year -- now."
Senator B: "It is long past time that the president ended American combat involvement in Iraq's multisided, sectarian civil war.... It is time to begin ending this war. Not next year, not next month, but today."
Very interesting. This is just one example. There is a whole column of these. Certainly says a lot about how Clinton has blurred the lines and how Obama has not distinguished himself.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Check out American Spectator’s Jennifer Rubin’s take on last night’s GOP PBS forum:
“The GOP candidates don't just avoid Tavis Smiley. With the exception of the omnipresent John McCain and Mike Huckabee (who never met a talk show host he didn't like), the presidential contenders do not frequent the Sunday talk shows, go on network news or subject themselves to interrogation by CNN or MSNBC reporters outside the few debates they have done.
”This is a mistake. Simply put, GOP candidates are ignoring Willie Sutton's advice. Sutton of course was the prolific bank robber who was said to have replied "that's where the money is" when asked why he robbed banks. Likewise, the GOP contenders would be wise to go where the voters are, especially voters they are losing.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
Check out Giuliani's latest spin on the phone call with his wife per an interview with CBN’s Brody:
Brody: Do you care to clear that up?
Giuliani: "Sure. My wife calls me when she gets on a plane. We’d just gotten back from England, hadn’t had much sleep. I knew she was going to take a plane, but I didn’t know which one she was going to take back to New York, and quite honestly since Sept. 11 most of the time when we get on a plane we talk to each other and just reaffirm the fact that we love each other. Sometimes if I’m in the middle of a very, very sensitive meeting, I don’t take the call right then I wait. But I thought it would be kind of nice if I took it at that point, and I’d done that before in engagements, and I didn’t realize it would create any kind of controversy, I would be insulted by it?? I’d done it, usually when I do it I put her on the phone and I have her say hello, but she was rushing to get on the airplane at the time, so I started to put her on the phone, but then I realized she was trying to get on the plane. I think she was at Regan Airport, and she was trying to get to her plane, so I gave her regards. I’d probably don that a half a dozen times before.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Isn’t this statement -- and audio recording -- from Dodd on Dems not ruling troops in Iraq until 2013 two days late:
"I think it is shocking that so-called frontrunners of this race for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency cannot tell the American people without any qualification that they would end this war by 2013. It's indefensible that they would allow this war to go on for another six years and become the longest war in American history, at tremendous cost in terms of human life and to our treasury.
"As President of the United States, I will certainly end the war by 2013, as I said last evening, but we cannot afford to wait until then, or even 2009 for that matter. I think we need to end this war now. That's why I'm fighting to use Congress' power of the purse to stop financing this disastrous policy. It hurts our country, keeps us less safe, more vulnerable, more isolated in the world. By every measure this war has made us far less secure as a nation. I understand that, the American people certainly know that, but I am deeply disappointed that my colleagues, my opponents for the Presidential nomination, apparently do not."
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the president this morning and let him know that she was "hoping and praying" that he would change his mind and sign the children's health insurance bill.
Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid appeared at a ceremony to sign the completed legislation and hand it over to the House Clerk, who in turn is charged with sending it down the Avenue to the president's desk. The leaders were flanked by a boisterous group of toddlers and older kids who were goo-goo-ing and ga-ga-ing throughout. The kids were said to be beneficiaries of the SCHIP program.
A certain veto awaits. Nevertheless, Pelosi says she "called to tell him that he is in my prayers." She described the conversation as "friendly" and that "the hand of friendship was extended to each other." The president, according to the speaker, told Pelosi that he "admires people who don't give up." Pelosi aides said that the speaker called the White House without warning and that she was immediately connected to the president.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Athena Jones
Every baby born in America should receive money that can later be used to pay for college, Clinton told the crowd at the Congressional Black Caucus annual legislative conference in Washington on Friday.
"I like the idea of giving every baby born in America a $5,000 account that will grow over time, so when that young person turns 18, if they have finished high school they will be able to access it to go to college," Clinton said, calling it one way to give young people a chance to save money tax free.
Clinton also said the GI bill should be expanded and talked about the importance of making college affordable for everyone. She touched on the need to end discrimination in hiring practices, so that when people graduate college, they can make a decent living. She added that politics should be about giving young people the opportunities to live up to their potential. "Everything we do, I believe, is about young people," she said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
***
Match game: Edwards has struggled to remain in the so-called top tier of Democratic candidates ever since Clinton and Obama both doubled and then tripled Edwards fundraising over the last 9 months. Well, that struggle became even greater yesterday with the campaign's decision to accept matching funds. While the campaign is desperately spinning that this decision means they'll have $20 million to spend at the start of the year, it means the campaign has no long-term strategy. They are going for a quick knockout blow.
***
Knock down, drag out: But Clinton and Obama both will have the resources to drag out this contest if necessary. Edwards has foreclosed that option because accepting matching funds means accepting a fundraising and spending limit that the campaign will likely reach by the end of January. It's exactly what happened to him in ’04. He ended up having to pick and choose where to play after the early states. This decision will make it easer to dismiss Edwards as a first-tier candidate, particularly when both Clinton and Obama triple his fundraising... again Sunday.
***
Clinton vs. Clinton: One of the developing stories from Wednesday night's debate is Clinton v. Clinton. Or more specifically, the growing demand the media and the Clintons’ opponents are putting on the frontrunner to distinguish herself from the FPOTUS. Bill Clinton added some fuel to the fire yesterday by answering a question that his wife didn't answer at the debate. On the issue of donor transparency, Bill Clinton both answered the question and provided a loophole around disclosure saying he anticipates disclosing all donors to his various foundations (including the library) but only beginning in the future. They will not go back in time and release those donors.
***
Expectations, expectations: This week seems to be a day where everyone on the GOP side is trying to re-calibrate expectations, and it should be no surprise since Sunday is the last day of the 3rd quarter fundraising period. It all started earlier this week with Giuliani when he let go of his finance chair (potential sign that he'll report an underwhelming number for a frontrunner?).
***
Re: Slipping? Then there's the Romney campaign memo, which is trying to explain away why they won't budge in the national polls despite still polling well in Iowa and New Hampshire. Also, don't miss the fact that the Romney camp seems to embracing the idea that Giuliani has caught them in New Hampshire. They'd love to make a New Hampshire victory more meaningful again.
***
A tale of two knives: Speaking of expectations, we're curious to see by how much Thompson outraises McCain this quarter. Does he double him or are the two much closer? The two may seem like allies, but are both going in opposite directions on policy. McCain is sharpening his policy knife, drawing real distinctions with the rest of the field. Meanwhile, Thompson is still struggling on issues. He appeared stumped again in Tennessee on a local issue. How long can Thompson get away with not knowing about controversial local issues?
***
On the trail: Clinton and Obama participate in the Congressional Black Caucus' issue forum in DC. Clinton appears at 9:00 am ET, Obama at 1:15 pm ET. Romney speaks to the Council for National Policy in Salt Lake City; Dodd speaks in Iowa on rural economic development; Edwards speaks on economic fairness and attends a bluegrass concert in New Hampshire. He also holds a low-dollar fundraiser with a local plumbers union in Ohio; Giuliani and Gravel campaign in California; Huckabee delivers a foreign policy speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and raises money in DC. He’ll also be playing bass guitar with a local rock band, Mama Kicks, in New Hampshire; Obama delivers Howard University’s Opening Convocation address; and Paul campaigns in Massachusetts.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 22 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 39 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 50 days Countdown to Iowa: 108 days Countdown to SC GOP primary: 113 days Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 130 days Countdown to Election Day 2008: 403 days Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 480 days
BIDEN: Biden scored his 10th Iowa state legislative endorsement yesterday.
Biden’s hometown paper, the
Wilmington NewsJournal praises him in an editorial for passing his Iraq legislation, saying it “marked a successful day in his presidential campaign … and has also made Sen. Biden stand out from the rest of the Democratic presidential candidates as the only one to have a specific idea to implement.”
CLINTON: Is Hillary presidential? That’s what
Salon’s Tim Grieve asks in an article about Wednesday night’s debate: “We thought Hillary Clinton finally came off like the front-runner that she is in Wednesday night's Democratic debate in New Hampshire. John Edwards and Barack Obama both looked worn down and thin, and neither scored anything like the knockout blow that must be feeling increasingly necessary.”
CONTINUED >>
The first question at last night's debate forced the candidates to react to the decision by the four frontrunners to not show. Huckabee said he was "embarrassed." Brownback said it was a "disgrace." The other candidates didn't use as harsh of language.
Des Moines Register's Yepsen called the entire GOP a "loser" for its frontrunners deciding to skip the event. "For a party already in minority status in much of the country, it defies political logic to just brush off these constituencies. Republicans don’t need to win the votes of everyone in those groups, but they must carry a big enough slice to deny victories to Democrats in close contests."
The
Washington Times notes, "The first 10 minutes of the debate were dedicated to bashing the four no-shows and, in some cases, Republicans as a whole."
BTW, the GOP candidates are being offered a second bite at the
Univision debate apple, on Dec. 9.
CONTINUED >>
The
Washington Times looks at the difficulty the religious right is having rallying around one candidate. "Many of the top leaders on the religious right privately say it's impossible to name a top-tier, declared Republican hopeful who can pass the "straight face" test as someone social conservatives can honestly say they would trust if elected."
In California, It appears the GOP effort to put a ballot initiative on the state's ballot that could split up California's electoral votes is
coming apart. Two of the campaign's top consultants have quit the effort.
The
Washington Post's Baker looks at Bush's decision to begin taking on the challenge of global warming as a sign he's looking to improve his legacy.
From NBC's Andy Merten
After about 20 minutes of acknowledgements -- which should really be done before the cameras start rolling -- and ending the debate nearly ten minutes early, Smiley was able to get in about only an hour worth of actual time with the candidates. By our count, he got in only eleven questions.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWe were a little distracted here... The Daily Show's crew, like we said, is on site, and we might wind up in a couple of these shots. They want to know where all the journalists are, which is something we noted earlier.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Tancredo came out pretty strong against yesterday's passing of the Biden-Brownback bill in the Senate, which suggests a three-region partition of Iraq, by Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. He said Congress can chose to authorize war, fund a war, or not fund a war, but added, "You cannot micromanage it from the Congress of the United States." It's too bad the format of this forum doesn't really allow for rebuttals between candidates -- it'd be interesting to see Brownback's response to this.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The questions have ranged so far from illegal immigration, now Iraq, health care. The forum is slow, but we knew that coming in. Same old stuff, but it says something at least that these candidates have showed up, but we've noted that already.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Note Hunter has now three time mentioned the "barrio." What is his point with this?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's not surprising, since Huckabee has clearly proved his ability on the stage, that he has the most cogent, competent and most unifying answers.
He had a great line on crimes committed either because someone was high or drunk or wanted to get high or drunk.
From NBC's Andy MertenLast week, a bill to grant Washington, DC a voting seat in the House of Representatives failed cloture in the Senate, so it's not a surprise that this topic came up tonight. Tancredo has said that he would not grant a seat to the District because it's not a state -- instead, it should be ceded back to Maryland and Virgina. Hunter seemed to assert that DC residents should be given less stringent gun-owning laws before a vote. Keyes suggested those wanting a vote should just pick up and move out of the city.
Huckabee has broken from the crowd, saying, "I think the people of DC should have the right to vote; I don't care how they vote, they should be allowed to vote." Brownback, on the other hand, supports a constitutional amendment: "There's a way to do it; there's a way not to do it."
Also, all answered that they do support voter photo identification laws.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Alan Keyes talked about blacks being the ones most affected by illegal immigrants taking jobs. It's interesting to hear him talk about this, because in some neighborhoods there is a real tension that exists. In East Harlem, for example, the nonprofit group Tepayac has complained that Mexicans are treated "like ATMs." Many are illegal and they say they are robbed by blacks and scared to tell the police for fear of being deported. Some blacks say they are stealing jobs blacks could have. In other cities -- Los Angeles and Houston, for example -- so-called black-brown tensions have manifested in violence. I can't remember hearing someone, especially not a presidential candidate, seem to discuss this with a tone of division and anger as Keyes has.
From NBC's Andy MertenWe noticed earlier today that during July's NAACP forum in Detroit, where Tancredo was the GOP's only participant, the organizers decided to put up extra podiums for the no-shows. It made for a great picture, seeing Tancredo stand in the middle of a long line of empty spots. While it's not quite as dramatic tonight, this forum is televised -- many more viewers will see those wide shots of a sparsely-populated stage.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Alan Keyes was the first participant to get cut off by the moderator. Smiley seemed to physically ushered the woman who asked the question away from the podium so he could get to the microphone to tell Keyes his time was up.
Maybe we'll start a count of the number of times Keyes is cut off, tonight.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Political Unit's Andy Merten and I are here liveblogging the forum for your enjoyment. It was a long drive and then walk to get on campus, but we got here before the debate went off. The spin room and press filing center is fairly empty but for a few journalists and Larry Wilmore and John Oliver from The Daily Show. Clearly the laugh lines and news hook is the same: the candidates who didn't show up.
But Tavis Smiley wasn't laughing -- or smiling for that matter -- in his introduction. He -- as well as Tom Joyner who spoke earlier -- railed against the candidates that didn't show: McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Thompson.
Smiley said that the four candidates had suggested publicly that "this audience" would be "hostile" to Republicans.
"Since we're on PBS...I can't tell you what I really think of those comments."
He then thanked Ken Mehlman and Newt Gingrich who are in attendance. Gingrich complained prior to the forum that the candidates who were skipping the forum were making a mistake.
The candidates were no kinder to those who skipped out (except, ugh, Alan Keyes).
HUCKABEE: "I'm embarrassed for our party and embarrassed for those who did not come....We've come a long way, but we have a long way to go....I'm honored to be here." He added, he hopes hey can take up the time of those not in attendance and "make up their ground."
BROWNBACK: "I apologize for those not here." Called it a "disgrace." Railed against those not in attendance.
KEYES: "Unfair to assume" that those have not showed up sends a negative message to the black community.
From NBC’s Abby Livingston
The warrior in John McCain emerged today in New York City, as he took seemingly subtle swings and not-so-subtle swings at friends and foe alike.
Taking aim at the Democrats, when he presented a sort of domino retreat theory among those who advocate a withdrawal from Iraq when he said, "How long will it take before the same advocates of surrender in Iraq begin demanding an end to our mission in Afghanistan and a quote surge in diplomacy aimed at a negotiating stalemate with the Taliban?"
Alluding to Romney he said, "Tough talk or managerial successes in the private sector aren't adequate assurances that their authors have the experience or qualities necessary for such a singular responsibility."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
John Edwards told CNN before the MTV dialogue that he will accept public financing, and Kate Bedingfield, Edwards' New Hampshire press secretary, confirmed the report.
"It's sort of about walking the walk," she said. "You should not be able to buy your way into the White House."
She claims the decision is not a reflection of this quarter's fundraising success or failure and that the campaign is still on track with its $40 million, four-state strategy over four quarters.
"The influence of money is rampant in politics to the point that it dominates the race," Bedingfield said. "The decision is about principle."
In a release, Edwards also called on Clinton to do the same.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Giuliani reiterated that he would not raise taxes as president today, after the Club For Growth said they were concerned about his tax policy. The organization said in an open letter Wednesday that they were concerned about comments Giuliani made in an Associated Press article, which said Giuliani would not rule out raising Social Security taxes to deal with the program’s insolvency.
Giuliani surrogate and one-time flat-tax presidential candidate Steve Forbes countered today, saying that in the interview Giuliani made clear he opposes all tax hikes when asked specifically about Social Security.
“Based on the mayor’s record as a tax cutter and fiscal conservative -- unparalleled in the Republican presidential field -- we should not find this position unusual,” Forbes said in a letter to Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “He opposed tax increases and believes they are not the solution. There are many ways to say it, but it’s clear Rudy ruled out tax increases.”
Giuliani also told reporters today that he said in the AP interview at least twice that he would not raise taxes as president.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
As Giuliani raised funds in California today, he was being questioned about his ties to a group pushing a proportional distribution of the state’s 55 electoral votes. Take Initiative America is looking to change California’s electoral college allotment, and its leader, Charles “Chep” Hurth III, has donated $2,000 to the Giuliani campaign, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
Hurth, a Missouri attorney, has also been tied to efforts to garner Republican support in 2004 for adding Ralph Nader to the presidential ballot in key states. Hurth’s law firm partners have also donated to the Giuliani campaign.
The Democratic National Committee Thursday said Giuliani should explain his ties to “a shadowy front group financing the effort to rig the Electoral College in California.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This morning, the Quad City Times reported that Michelle Obama said last night that "it's over" if her husband does not win in Iowa.
AUDIO: Michelle Obama tells a crowd about the important of Iowa to her husband's presidential campaign (Note: Audio can be difficult to understand.).
But Michelle Obama did not, in fact, say "it's over." What she did tell supporters (and we have it recorded) is, “Iowa will make the difference. If Barack doesn’t win Iowa, then it's just a dream. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen."
The gist is the same -- Michelle Obama clearly implied that a poor showing in the state means the end of the road for Obama. And saying, "win" instead of the usual moderate-expectation-setting "do well," is significant. But the ultimatum of "it's over" was not uttered.
The Quad City Times corrected its reporting this afternoon.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Christina Jamison
Bill Clinton was asked at a Global Initiative news conference about
Hillary Clinton's refusal in last night's debate to commit to disclosure of his library and foundation contributors. He responded extensively saying, in part, "She couldn't answer that question last night because we don't believe in one set of rules for us and another set for everybody else."
He then pointed out that Hillary is sponsoring a bill to require disclosures in the future and said, "If she becomes president I will treat it as if we are covered by that and i will disclose all the donors to our library and activities."
Why didn't she answer that last night?
He bristled noticeably: "She just thinks I'm entitled to speak for myself just like I think she is entitled to speak for herself. And she has got no business being asked to speak for me in a presidential debate just like I don't try to speak for her unless i know what her position is."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Mike Memoli
McCain advisers said on a conference call this morning that his New Hampshire ad buy is meant to build on what they feel has been a good month for the campaign, as evidenced by the latest poll showing him closing in on Romney and Giuliani.
"From our perspective we sensed this progress was occurring and wanted to capitalize on that, and continue to wage an aggressive and robust campaign by putting these ads up," said campaign manager Rick Davis.
Both new TV ads include footage of a wounded McCain being interviewed in a Hanoi prison. McCain media strategist Mark McKinnon said that the campaign wanted to draw more attention to McCain's "rich and compelling life story." "We made a lot of assumptions about the fact that voters know the story when in fact they really don't," McKinnon said.
*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The campaign calls this "a significant statewide ad buy" running on radio and TV on WMUR. CLICK MORE FOR FULL TRANSCRIPTS OF THE THREE ADS.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Attorneys in the Office of General Counsel of the House of Representatives filed a motion Wednesday in federal court to quash subpoenas served to 12 senior House members by defense attorneys representing Brent Wilkes, the former defense contractor charged with bribing now imprisoned ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
House lawyers argue that the information and testimony sought by Wilkes' attorney Mark Geragos from the members is protected by the Speech or Debate Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The Speech or Debate clause protects Member of Congress "not only from the consequence of litigation's results but also from the burden of defending themselves," so long as legislators are ''acting in the sphere of legitimate legislative activity.''
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Tricia MillerHANOVER, N.H. -- In a morning question-and-answer session with about 400 sixth- through eighth-graders at a Hanover middle school,
Edwards responded to questions on his plans for the presidency.
On a question about potential running mates, he said he had a flexible list, but "no intention of telling you who they are." He said he looks for people who share his vision on global warming, health care, Iraq and poverty.
He told one young questioner, who asked what one thing he would change to reform society, that he would pick the health-care system. He also answered questions on education, ethanol and Iraq. His children, Jack and Emma Claire, joined him on the gym floor in the middle of a circle of seated children during the last answer. Staffers from the campaign also answered questions about their jobs while the gym full of students waited for the senator's arrival.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Republicans focused on issues of security and force in their released statements on last night’s Democratic debate.
Romney was first out with a statement, criticizing Dems on their stances on Iraq naming
Clinton,
Obama and
Edwards. Fred
Thompson followed shortly after criticizing Dems on the Israel-Iran question, saying he was “appalled that none of the leading Democrats would stand up for Israel's right to defend itself against Iran.”
We will update as we hear of more of these.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico MontanaroHANOVER, NH -- So how many folks were confused about which NBC channel was airing the season premiere of the "bionic woman": was it on NBC or MSNBC? More from last night's debate: Clinton was a bit testy, particularly on the Social Security questions. She also allowed her "laughter" tick to kick in for a few other tough questions. Overall, though, no
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one landed a blow on her, and at this point in the game, that's how these debates have to be judged. In a way, she reminded us of one of those Dean Smith teams playing "four corners" or "stall ball" -- by playing it extremely safe. This is what a front-runner does: protects a lead. But if she were being judged on actually answering the questions she was asked, she'd get the lowest marks among those on the stage. To borrow another sports analogy, Clinton punted on the questions regarding Social Security, her war authorization vote (she talked about health care, but not the war vote when Russert brought up both), and the Clinton Library donors. (BTW, how soon before the Clinton library makes the decision that they'll have to do full disclosure on its donors. Won't it be better for Clinton to deal with this in '07 than '08?)
***
A Tale Of Two Candidates: Perhaps the most surprising thing last night was Obama's decision to not aggressively go after Clinton. He didn't seem to change his tone or game even as it appears he's stalled both in the national polls and here in New Hampshire. That said, it's still worth pointing out how far he's come since the first debate back in April. But when given the chance to contrast himself with the front-runner, he punted too, except when he criticized her handling of health care in '93. Of the candidates chasing Clinton, Edwards stood out. He seemed to realize he needed to contrast himself with Clinton on just about every answer he gave. It was one of his better performances; he's getting his William Jennings Bryan schtick down pat. But How will he get past Obama (in money, buzz, and polls)? That's the question for him.
***
The Rest: As for the second half of the field, Biden -- once again -- performed well. If he had resources, he just might get some traction. Then again, maybe it's just us Beltway types who think he's shooting straighter from the hip than any of the other candidates. Of course, when you've got nothing left in the bank, you got nothing left to lose. At a minimum, he's earned a spot on the veep short list, forget Secretary of State. Dodd seemed a bit better tonight, but he just can't seem to stop from speaking like a senator and that hurts him at these debates. Then there's Richardson. What is there to say? It appears he's getting smaller and smaller at these debates. His
campaign said he was joking when he stated that he received the first immigration question because he's Hispanic, but (to us) the joke fell flat. He's trying too hard on some questions and it shows. Finally, Gravel may want to save the tape of this debate, it may have been his last.
***
Pledge, not just for furniture: What are the unintended consequences of all three leading Democratic candidates not pledging to end the Iraq war 10 years after it began? The war began in 2003 and the three leading Dems would not pledge to have all combat troops out by 2013... Ten years.
***
Ouch: While Edwards may have been basking in the glow of solid reviews from his debate performance last night, the campaign must feel like it was punched in the stomach when it clicked over to today's Des Moines Register. The paper -- similar to what the Columbia State did a few weeks back -- reports on its front page the 100+ Iowa foreclosures by sub-prime mortgage lenders owned by the hedge fund Edwards had worked for last year, Fortress. BTW, did Edwards lose his temper on a bit at last night's debate on this question because he knew this Des Moines Register story was coming this morning? Talk about a precision oppo-strike.
***
Skipping Smiley: For a Republican Party that has been trying to make inroads with African-American voters, it probably doesn’t help that its top four candidates (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson) plus Tancredo decided to skip tonight’s Tavis Smiley-moderated debate at Morgan State University in Baltimore. It also probably doesn’t help when Smiley goes on the airwaves to criticize those candidates. And it certainly doesn’t help when Jack Kemp said this to the Washington Post about the no-shows: "What are we going to do -- meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?” Or when Newt Gingrich told the paper: “It's just fundamentally wrong. Any of them who give you that scheduling-conflict answer are disingenuous. That's baloney." Those who are attending -- Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Paul, and Alan Keyes (yes, Alan Keyes) -- will take questions on issues like health care, housing, and Katrina relief. Also, there will be this dubious honor for those not attending tonight: unmanned podiums.
***
From MySpace To Your Place: Edwards becomes the first presidential candidate to participate in a MySpace/MTV dialogue. Per a release, this hour-long discussion will air on mtvU and will also stream on MTV.com and MySpace. It will be moderated by MTV’s SuChin Pak and Gideon Yago, as well as WashingtonPost.com’s Chris Cillizza.
***
On The Trail: In addition to his MySpace/MTV dialogue, Edwards campaigns in New Hampshire; Giuliani, in California, picks up an endorsement from former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson; McCain is in New York, where he gives a speech to the Hudson Institute and raises money; Obama is also in New York, where he holds a rally in Washington Square Park; Richardson stumps in Boston and Philly; Romney meets with voters in Sacramento, CA; and Thompson raises money all day in Tennessee.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 23 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 40 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 51 days Countdown to Iowa: 109 days Countdown to SC GOP primary: 114 days Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 131 days Countdown to Election Day 2008: 404 days Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 481 days
Also, while Clinton got an "A" for theatrics, she didn't score well on the specifics front. She better hope there isn't a Yankees-Cubs World Series because her answer was too, dare we say, Clintonian by half. Sure, the answer was in jest but it's one of those that will be used as a punch line for not answering specifics on, say, Social Security, Israel or Iran.
Since it was late last night, many folks missed out on how things played out in the spin room. NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports... In the spin room, opposing camps seemed to focus on Hillary Clinton's attempts to avoid specifics on certain questions. Obama New Hampshire co-chair Jim Demers said Obama "answered the questions directly. I thought that was a contrast to some of the others... Senator Clinton refused to answer some of the questions, said that she wasn't going to answer hypotheticals. And Senator Obama was very direct... I think people want to have the questions answered so they know where the candidates stand."
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Elizabeth Edwards said her husband was "being really direct with respect to the issues," while "some other candidates might have been a little more cautious." "John is as always really direct and I think in the end that's what's going to be attractive to voters in New Hampshire, [and] frankly across the country," she said.
CONTINUED >>
Human Events' Jennifer Rubin has a good expectations table-setter for the GOP primary. From money to social conservatives to Newt, it's a solid list of questions that need answering.
It looks like the GOP is going to take a press beating today over the fact that the top tier GOP candidates are not appearing at tonight's minority-focused debate. Both the NYT and LAT have stories today.
GINGRICH: The National Review editorializes against Newt Gingrich running. "The Republican party owes Newt Gingrich a big debt. It will benefit should GOP politicians borrow some of the initiatives that result from his latest project. But not if he runs for president."
GIULIANI: In an interview with Radio Iowa, the candidate reiterated his pledge that he is competing in Iowa. "We'll be in Iowa quite a bit. We've been to Iowa nine times this year, including three (days) in August. This month has been devoted, quite frankly, to raising money because we have to report at the end of the week and we want to raise as much money as we possibly can."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The Washington Times runs this story: "Officials of a defunct pro-Democratic group that was hit with a near-record campaign-finance fine last month hold strong ties to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign, documents show. At least four persons who worked for the America Coming Together (ACT) fundraising group, which the Federal Election Commission recently fined $775,000, work directly for the Clinton campaign or hold top positions with consulting firms hired by it."
And don’t miss the clipart graphic a Web site run by the Clinton campaign used of Obama likely leading in fund-raising. The graphic was also passed along by the Clinton campaign itself over e-mail. Notably, it’s no longer on the Web site, but the Boston Globe clipped it and asked, Did someone think that maybe it was a little too much?
Rob Reiner can handle the truth! He's for Hillary.
EDWARDS: The candidate's ties to the hedge fund Fortress continue to haunt the candidate in some of the early states. A few weeks ago, a South Carolina paper noted the number of local foreclosures by subprime mortgage companies owned by Fortress and had the candidate on the defensive. Now, this morning, in the Des Moines Register, the paper reports on another 100+ Iowa homeowners being foreclosured upon by Fortress-owned lenders. "Most Iowa Democratic activists interviewed by The Des Moines Register say the foreclosures by themselves do not undermine Edwards' anti-poverty message. However, some say he should have known that his tie to Fortress, which paid him $479,500 for 14 months of work, would be scrutinized in the campaign."
CONTINUED >>
The
Boston Globe’s top story is Gen. Casey telling the House Armed Services Committee, in his first appearance as Army chief of staff, that the Army is "out of balance" and "the current demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply. We are consumed with meeting the demands of the current fight and are unable to provide ready forces as rapidly as necessary for other potential contingencies."
Casey “personally requested the public hearing -- a highly unusual move that military analysts said underscores his growing concern about the health of the Army, America's primary fighting force.”
And “Secretary of Defense Robert Gates asked Congress for a record-setting $190 billion to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next year -- nearly $50 billion more than anticipated. Most of the money would go to Iraq. If the request is approved, the cost of the 2003 invasion will top $600 billion.”
This has to have Republicans vexed. The
Boston Globe reports that after “a judge took Senator Larry Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea under advisement,” Craig said in statement: "Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name. The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the US Senate for Idaho." He didn’t mention his “earlier commitment to resign Sept. 30.”
Roll Call reports that “in the wake of Rep. Terry Everett’s (R-Ala.) announcement Wednesday that he will not seek re-election in 2008, national Democratic leaders and state party officials were quick to say that Republicans are wrong to assume the race to replace him won’t be competitive.” Party leaders apparently already have a candidate picked out, who they call “an A Team candidate” and a “recruiting coup.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Some quick thoughts before the morning (it's going to be a LOOONNNGGG night).
Clinton seemed a bit testy tonight, particularly on Social Security... She allowed her "laughter" tick to kick in for a few questions, particularly on the various criticisms other candidates made in press releases that those same candidates didn't have the, well, you know, to verbalize those attacks.
Overall, though, no one landed a blow on her and at this point in the game, that's how these debates have to be judged. As my colleague Mark Murray put it in the control room tonight, she reminds him of Dean Smith in that she's always playing "four corners" or "stall ball." This is what a frontrunner gets to do, protect a lead and Clinton appears to be protecting her lead. BTW, she continues to show command on the stage; it's subtle things but there's no doubting who's in charge of this campaign right now, it's Hillary Clinton.
Perhaps the surprising thing to me was Obama's decision to not overtly go after Clinton. He didn't seem to change his tone or game even as it appears he's stalled both in the national polls and in this state of New Hampshire. Of the candidates chasing Clinton, Edwards stood out to me. He seemed to realize he needed to prove contrast with Clinton on just about every answer he gave. It was one of his better performances. The guy is getting his William Jennings Bryan schtick down pat. How will he get past Obama, that's the problem for him.
As for the second half of the field, Biden, once again, did well. The guy just needs resources and he just might get some traction. Then again, maybe it's just us Beltway types who think he's shooting straighter from the hip than any of the other candidates. Of course, when you've got nothing left in the bank, you got nothing left to lose. At a minimum, I think he's earned a spot on the VP short list, forget Sec./State.
Dodd seemed a bit better tonight but just can't seem to stop from speaking like a senator and that hurts him at these debates.
Then there's Richardson. What is there to say; I think he's getting smaller and smaller at these debates. He's trying too hard on some questions and it shows. I'll have more thoughts tomorrow.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumAs we predicted,
many of the candidates attacked Hillary Clinton tonight. Edwards was
first, attacking her on her Iraq policy and then on voting today to
"authorize the first step of war with Iran." On this bill, Gravel told
Clinton, "I am ashamed at you for voting for it."
Richardson also
went after Clinton on her Iraq policy. He later attacked Obama,
Edwards, and Clinton for not saying they will remove all troops from
Iraq by the end of their first term.
Obama knocked Clinton on
her failed health care policy during her husband's administration,
telling her the reason it was lonely is because she "closed the door to
Republicans," who did want to reform health care. When he was later
asked if "turning the page" is directed at Bush or Clinton or both,
Obama resisted the chance to attack Clinton and simply said he wants to
end "divisive politics in the country."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumMany
of the Democratic candidates have been using the words "experience" and
"change" to show their strengths. Tonight, the words were not used as
much as we may have thought. For the most part, the candidates only
used the words when Tim Russert asked Clinton, Obama, Richardson, and
Dodd about their experience.
Clinton addressed the issue but
used the word experience just once. At other times during the debate,
she did use the word "change" twice. Obama talked about bringing the
country together, using the word experience three times and never using
the word change. Richardson used the line "with Bill Richardson, you
get both, change and experience," saying the word change once and
experience twice. Dodd talked about his number of years in the Senate
as testament to his experience but never used either word.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton sounded her best tonight, a night when she hasn't sounded her best, when talking about the torture question and about the presidency. Is this why people give her credit for her time as First Lady as experience? Most people have never been "on the inside of the White House," and her talking about a president's role sounded presidential.
From NBC's Athena Jones at the Clinton party...
Huge applause and screams of "I love you" re: Clinton's "her decision" comment.
Also, after some initial thinning out, the crowd is now strong again -- as Clinton is expected to show here later.
Overheard: "She better show up here."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Check out how Clinton got in a Yucca Mountain pander for the Nevada Democrats.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroObama said he had a responsibility to be in Washington for votes on Iraq rather than be in Jena. "This is not an issue of black or white," Obama said of the Jena situation. He said it's an American issue of justice. It highlights the fine line Obama walks on race as he tries to be a viable, broader candidate, as the Columbia State front-paged this week.
And Obama was the first to release a statement on Jena.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroHillary handled the Bush-Cheney-Bush-Cheney question pretty well with her, "I think Bill was a pretty good president line." Sounded like it got pretty good applause. Bill Clinton is very popular with the base. It's an asset for her in trying to get the nomination.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroObama did not answer the question on what does turning the page mean. Is it about Bush or Clinton or both? He had a chance to really draw a line in the sand and he chose not to.
NBC's Aswini Anburajan, with the Obama supporters...
Strong responses here: Woahs to Tim's question to obama and some clapping.
Big "no's" to Tim's question re: is dynasty good for democracy.
(But Obama didn't answer it that explicitly.)
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroKucinich wants the drinking age to be 18 and the voting age to be 16. Hmm. This has been a revealing debate for Kucinich and Gravel.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerDodd went over so much better at the AARP forum. How is he going after
the youth vote? He had a pretty sizable group of mostly middle aged
supporters following a man playing bagpipes before the debate.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
So here's what we learned on Social Security: Clinton would not put anything on the table, totally ducked the answer; Biden and Edwards want to raise the payroll tax on everyone; Dodd and Obama want to raise it some (maybe not on everybody); while Richardson believes the country will simply grow her way out of it. Meanwile, the final Clinton insert on this question seemed to be a rare debate moment when she realized her answer wasn't very good the first time.
Update: The Edwards campaign reminds me that I missed the fact that Edwards is with Dodd and Obama on having some rise in the payroll tax but with an exception.
From NBC's Aswini AnburajanSome of the older voters here (there are a few) grumbling about candidates responses to the same-sex question.
Also
one sense I am getting here is don't hate the other guys (gal) too much
b/c as a few people have mentioned "four months from now we are all going
to be on the same team."
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton doesn't like to get into specifics on many issues. The "fiscal" answer regarding Social Security sounds like a "specific" answer but it's anything but... It's good campaign politics but it could open herself up to some criticisms down the road.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJoe Biden is starting to embrace this idea that he's this year's "straight talker," so he had no problem pledging to raise the payroll tax.
NBC/NJ's Athena JonesScattered applause here for Clinton's comment about differences being
used for divisive purposes and the need to pass the Hate Crimes
legislation.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanApplause here for Obama's response but nothing too strong.
From NBC's Andy MertenThe first laugh-line and major applause of the debate went to Biden, for his slam on Giuliani's foreign policy credentials. "Rudy Giuliani doesn't know what the heck he's talking about; he's the most uniformed person in American foreign policy, and now running for president," he said while answering the question on sanctuary cities. It seems like he formulated this quip during the Iran question regarding Giuliani's past comments on Tehran's nuclear capabilities, and couldn't wait to get a chance to use it when called on.
NBC’s Athena Jones points out that at the Clinton party, People here are not paying much attention to the responses of other candidates, but they laughed at the crack Biden made about Giuliani's foreign policy experience.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroKucinich and Gravel were hit on their bankruptcies and did not answer well. Richardson on his gaffes: he at first, he looked a bit off kilter. Sayinig he's not the "blow-dried" candidate and his prepared answers on his experience were stronger. But is saying I'm going to continue to making mistakes going to resonate with people?
From NBC's Chuck ToddObama just got the "Roger Mudd" question; The why. "The why" is he running now when he said it would be an absurd notion three years ago. How did he do? He seemed to me to get stuck a bit in his windup. One wonders why he doesn't have the "experience" answer down in a crisper manner.
From NBC’s Athena JonesA whoop here for Edwards' promise to cut off health insurance coverage for members of Congress if they don't pass health care by July 2009.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBiden did a better job going after Clinton on the electability issue than Dodd and Biden wasn't even directly asked the question. He addressed the polarizing argument on Clinton in an apologetic way. Pretty clever of the Delaware senator.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia MillerDodd went over like a lead balloon in Leads. Gravel got a better response - laughter at fantasy land line, lots of applause at southern border line.
From NBC's Chuck ToddFascinating decision by Clinton that she simply ignored the Iraq part of the question regarding judgment on her Iraq vote. She made it all about health care. That's called message discipline folks.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWow, it's interesting that Dodd didn't take the opportunity to take an electability shot at Clinton. Sounds like a candidate who's got cold feet going after the frontrunner. He had some clever lines, but this is New Hampshire, the voters expect a little fight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton laughed again... twice when Dodd's criticism was brought up about saying he understands why Bush would pick Hillary Clinton.
Dodd did have a funny line... people are asking him, "Anderson Cooper, what's happened to you."
When pressed, Dodd backtracked on his line about Clinton, saying he was being "facetious."
From NBC's Chuck ToddWell that was a jam-packed first 35 minutes. The statements every candidate made regarding pledges on Iraq troops and taking out Iran's nuclear capabilities will live for quite some time.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton gave a pretty good general election answer on "sanctuary cities" -- she went at it as a crime issue. Sounded awfully like Rudy Giuliani on this answer.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThat was a cheap shot by Richardson. We asked him because he's a border-state governor. I guess we should not have looked at the governor's resume and determined he might be the most thoughtful on this topic.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroEdwards is pressing the distinctions with Clinton. He said they had learned different things on their war vote and said this Iran vote was indicative of that. Will it matter? Edwards clearly wants to put her on the defensive. So far, he's the only one.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini AnburajanEverything but anchovies is filled with Obama supporters, but the line outside is even longer with supporters who can’t get into the event.
I am sitting with some bubbly Hanover high school students who are lamenting the fact that they can't vote for Obama in this election.
People are jam packed into booths and have drawn up chairs to sit in the middle of the aisles. Feel bad for the wait staff, they are going through an obstacle course to get through the restaurant.
Most interesting comment so far, the 18-and-under crowd saw Chris Dodd and said, "Who's he?"
From NBC's Chuck ToddFirst goof of the night, Edwards mis-pronounced Ahmadinejad.
From NBC's Chuck ToddSo far, there's a lot of me-too-ing between Clinton and Obama.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton seemed to agree that she would support a military strike on Iranian nuclear strike. She didn't rule it out and was careful not to rule it out. But it took three attempts to get her to answer the question (for those keeping score).
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroI think that's a first. Getting Clinton to say "I don't want to answer that" when Russert tried to push her in answering a question on whether or not Israel would be justified against a nuclear presence in Iran.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There's the laugh. And a Bush-Cheney deflection from Clinton. Gravel told Clinton, standing right next to her, that he was disappointed that she voted for the Lieberman-sponsored bill he called a fig leaf for a war with Iran. She laughed it off... again. Then she talked about the Bush administration. That's 1.
From NBC/NJ’s Athena JonesAbout half the crowd at the debate watch party organized by the Clinton campaign were left watching CSpan and then a blank screen when the debate began.
Two TVs were showing the debate in a room where most people were standing. But the people in the other room, where about 60 people were sitting were left waiting for a new television to arrive that would pick up the correct channel. By 9:05, they had gotten the third TV working. The feat was met with applause.
From NBC's Chuck Todd"It's FantasyLand." -- Mike Gravel could not have spoken truer words. You fill in the blank as to what he was actually describing.
From NBC's Chuck ToddFor those keeping score, of the six major candidates, only Dodd and Richardson pledged to get all troops out by 2013.
From NBC's Chuck ToddDodd's answer was a classic senator response; he didn't answer the question until he was reminded of the question one more time. This is Dodd's fundamental problem as a candidate, he thinks too much like a senator (or speaks too much like a senator). It was a VERY thoughtful opening remark, but it wasn't a debate response.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
So Dodd said he would "get that done" in bringing the troops home by 2013.
Biden said if there is no political solution, then I would bring them home.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIt's VERY early but Edwards seems on his game tonight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroEdwards going at Clinton immediately. "I would have our combat troops out of Iraq." Clinton would not, he said. Clinton said she may keep combat troops there to find al Qaeda.
Edwards looked poised in following up on his answer. Not angry or frustrated as we've seen him before, more presidential.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWow... Edwards also couldn't take the pledge to get all troops out of Iraq by 2013. Doesn't this allow Clinton to continue to blur the distinctions on the war?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton said she voted for Biden's plan, though would word it slightly differently.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
It took Obama about 10 seconds to bring up his initial opposition to the war. Interesting that Obama, when given the chance to pledge that there would be no more troops in Iraq in 2013, that he ducked the pledge. Clinton did that the other night. Look for the other candidates to jump on him for that.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroOn the Iraq question to Obama, he immediately cited his own judgment saying if it had prevailed, the United States would not be in Iraq. He echoed Clinton from when she was on Meet the Press about whether or not they'd guarantee troops out by the end of their first terms. The question was thrown to Clinton and she said she "agreed with Barack."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are utilizing text messages to alert supporters about the debate tonight. Obama's text provided more information on how to watch the debate while the Clinton campaign appears to be trying to find out how many people on their list are actually watching the debate.
The Obama campaign sent this text at 3:09 this afternoon:
"Watch Barack at the DNC debate tonight from 9-11pm ET, live on MSNBC and streamed at http://www.msnbc.com REPLY to this message with your thoughts throughout."
At 8:29 this evening, the Clinton campaign sent this text:
"Hi, tonight's NH debate starts at 9ET on MSNBC. Let me know if you're going to be watching, Reply YES or NO. Thank you, Hillary."
From NBC/National Journal's Athena Jones
HANOVER, N.H. -- In the hours leading up to the Democratic debate at Dartmouth, the campaigns held informal question and answer sessions with students. Students filtered in and out of classrooms listening to some of the contenders' top advisors talk about why students should consider their candidates.
Clinton's Senior Advisor Ann Lewis spoke to a group of 50 to 60 students, who asked questions about what Clinton would do to combat HIV/AIDS, her stand on gay marriage and gay adoption, why she accepts money from Wall Street and what the campaign is doing to appeal to young voters.
Lewis also talked about how Clinton would change NAFTA, what it means to her to be running to be the first woman president and how she would stand up to Republican attacks.
"2008 is going to be like 2004 on steroids," Lewis said, making reference to the kind of treatment the Democratic nominee will likely face from her Republican rival. She noted that Republicans had managed to neutralize the potential positive effects of the military experience of decorated war veteran John Kerry last time around and suggested the road to the White House would be even rougher this time around.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHANOVER, N.H. -- Hello from the control room. It's hard to believe this is already the 7th Democratic debate (if you count the AFL-CIO showdown in Chicago in August). But there's something different about this one: not only because it's the first debate of the fall but because it's also the first debate for the Democrats where there is a single, lone, frontrunner. Not only will the candidates begin to treat Hillary Clinton a bit differently tonight (don't expect the same deferential tone we've become accustomed to), but the media will also be looking at Clinton differently. And, of course, the voters will be examining her like they never have before. I know I'm anxious to see this campaign kick into another gear and my guess is we'll see that shift tonight. Enjoy and be sure to refresh "First Read" constantly as the entire NBC News political team is covering this debate from every angle, from the control room, from the living room, from the spin room, from the Dartmouth dorm rooms and from the various debate parties.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HANOVER, NH -- Tonight, all of the campaigns were invited to have members of their staff meet with Dartmouth students. The Richardson camp sent the candidate himself, and he was met with an overflow crowd in Rockefeller Hall.
Afterwards, Richardson said he hopes tonight to continue pressing his fellow Democrats on the Iraq war. "I have the strongest position to end the war, which is bring all American troops out, not leave any behind," Richardson said. "The other candidates aren't saying that." Richardson just launched his a new TV ad on New Hampshire airwaves driving that point home. Richardson says he's confident he'll do well in this state's first-in-the-nation primary. "I've got momentum. I've still got a ways to go, and we have four months to go," he said. "I feel good. I'm outworking everybody."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HANOVER, NH -- Once again, Gravel will find himself on the far end of the stage during tonight’s debate. But to his immediate right will be none other than Hillary Clinton, and Gravel plans to use his position to his advantage. “I’m going to turn to Hillary [and say], ‘Hillary why did you vote for this fig leaf for George Bush to invade Iran.” Gravel was referring to the Kyl-Lieberman amendment that passed the Senate today, which brand's the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. “It’s a Gulf of Tonkin kind of resolution that would give George Bush the fig leaf, the fig leaf, to invade [Iran],” Gravel said. “This could be the beginning of the end.”
Asked about his standing in New Hampshire, Gravel said: “I don’t know... I have been working hard in New Hampshire. I don’t have the celebrity nature. And then you get the national media who doesn’t even want to cover you.”
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerHANOVER, NH -- A group of 10 African-American Dartmouth students protested outside Spaulding Auditorium, where tonight's debate will be held. Holding signs that read "I'll vote for you if you vote for freedom," "Forget about Hanover, what about Jena?" and "What about the Jena 6?" the students said they had been asked to stand on the sidewalk instead of the green. It rained briefly while they stood outside; across the street hundreds of people watched Chris Matthews interviewing guests on Hardball, including Sen.
Joe Biden and
Elizabeth Edwards.
Lou-Lou Igkowbe, a sophomore from New Jersey, said that she doesn't think civil rights is an issue limited to Jena. "If it's happening in Louisiana, it's happening to me," she said. Igkowbe said she wanted the media to focus on what happened specifically in Jena.
Daria Waite, a sophomore from Philadelphia, agreed. She said she hoped candidates would speak honestly at the debate about poverty, health care and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, as well as the Jena 6.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroRomney slipped,
Giuliani is now within the margin of error for the top spot and
McCain has gained ground in the new Granite State poll out tonight, which was conducted by the University of New Hampshire and sponsored by CNN/WMUR.
Romney and Giuliani are in a statistical dead heat in the Granite State. Romney got 25% to Giuliani's 24%. McCain got a 5-point bump to 18% and Fred
Thompson is at 13%. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 5%. Notably only 13% of voters say they have definitely made up their minds.
Romney's support dropped 10 percentage points since last month when he held a 14-point lead. Fred Thompson apparently was not helped by missing this month's New Hampsire GOP debate, as 29% of likely voters said they are less likely to vote for him because of that decision.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew BergerA Republican official told First Read the change is probably a sign of a personality conflict or a difference in expectations between Dunsmore and the campaign.
"These things happen all the time," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "All the guys around Rudy are smart, but they've never done this before."
But given the announcement came days before the end of the quarter, the official also said it could be a preemptive strike against third quarter numbers that are not as strong as people would think.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Nine finalists were announced for the Romney “Create Your Own Ad” contest. The winner will have their ad selected as a Romney commercial tomorrow morning. The voting closes at midnight. There are some pretty good ones, including the first, which is patriotic but not too sappy and highlights Romney's leadership. The pictures and music match the words pretty well. There's also an interesting testament from a man who says he was a volunteer at the Salt Lake Games, though it seems more suitable as a Web video because of the picture quality.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Anne Dunsmore is out as finance director for the Giuliani presidential campaign.
The campaign confirmed the change first reported by the Politico, and said Jim Lee will take over as “Finance Co-chair and CEO.” Campaign spokeswoman Katie Levinson said it was an amicable departure. But a Giuliani aide said that with Dunsmore "it wasn't the right fit."
Campaign officials said the shakeup was not an indication of disappointment over the third quarter fundraising dollars. Giuliani has been criss-crossing the country in the final weeks of the quarter, and is planning several West Coast events this weekend. He has even gone to London to raise funds among ex-patriots.
The campaign official said that Dunsmore’s departure was more of an indication of differing strategic visions moving forward.
From NBC’s Ken Strickland
In a strong rebuff to the Bush Administration on Iraq, the Senate overwhelming approved a plan by Biden that essentially calls for breaking Iraq into three sections: Kurd, Sunni, and Shia. While the amendment is nonbinding, it's the first measure to pass, (vote was 75-23,) that goes against the administration's war strategy.
Biden's chief co-sponsor was Brownback. Fellow candidates Clinton and Dodd also supported the plan. Obama and McCain did not vote.
In a news conference after the vote, Biden said his plan is consistent with the Iraqi constitution which calls Iraq to be made up of "a decentralized capital, regions, and governorates, and local administrations." Biden says this plan illustrates how to "end this war in a way that we are able to ultimately to bring our troops home and leave a stable Iraq behind... [that] is consistent with the Iraqi constitution." He described it as "pushing on an open door."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
James Denton, who plays “Mike Delfino” on “Desperate Housewives,” will be campaigning for Edwards in Iowa this weekend with Edwards’ daughter Cate. They will stop in at least seven Iowa towns, including “Hawkeye fans in Iowa City for a Homecoming tailgate,” according to an Edwards campaign press release with the headline, “Edwards’ Eldest Daughter and America’s Favorite Primetime Plumber Will Both Make First Iowa Campaign Appearances This Election Cycle.”
Cate is a student at Harvard Law School and is involved in politics with the group Generation Engage, which is focused on increasing civic involvement of youth.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HANOVER, NH -- Earlier today, we mentioned that Obama campaign workers were planting signs here on the Dartmouth campus as early as 6:15 am ET. Here's an update from later this morning... Richardson's campaign was owning the road to the campus. His signs lined Route 10 from I-89, right up to the Dartmouth campus. Stationed a long the way were a few larger "NH Welcomes Governor Bill Richardson" banners.
Hillary Clinton's camp had a team of sign wavers at the ramp exiting I-89. And Obama's camp had some volunteers stationed at various intersections, including a large "Honk If You believe" Sign on Route 10.
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
The House is at this moment voting to condemn MoveOn.org for the Petraeus ad. House Republicans have managed to get the measure considered in a procedural motion attached to a bill to fund the government for the next 8 weeks.
The motion "condemns in the strongest possible terms the personal attacks made by the advocacy group MoveOn.org impugning the integrity and professionalism of General David H. Petraeus.”
The measure appears to be passing by a very wide margin, with the vast majority of Democrats voting in favor. Recall that the Senate passed a similar measure last week with the help of 22 of 51 Democrats and quasi Democrats.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Have you seen this Google ad?
"Obama for President? Why Not Learn More About John McCain for President."
NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan, who is embedded with the Obama campaign, takes a look at this political advertising trend over at National Journal:
“Obama isn't the only presidential moniker that the McCain team latched on to searches for Hillary Rodham Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney -- as well as the word ‘president’ -- also bring up AdWords for McCain, with similar language to those appearing next to the Obama results."
The McCain campaign says, "We buy hundreds or thousands of different AdWords -- that's monitored all the time. It's based on what's going in the news cycle [that is] relevant to the 2008 cycle." And “McCain's camp may not be alone in using another candidate's name to push its own Web site.”
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
HANOVER, NH -- Tonight, the eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- participate in a debate here at Dartmouth College at 9:00 pm ET. The Duel at Dartmouth, which airs on MSNBC and is moderated by NBC's Tim Russert, marks the sixth full-fledged Democratic debate of this campaign season (or seventh, if you count the boisterous AFL-CIO forum at Soldier Field), and the third one sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee. It also happens to be the first Democratic debate of the fall, and it comes as Clinton has widened her lead nationally and also in this state. A brand-new CNN/WMUR poll finds her with a 23-point lead over Obama in New Hampshire (43%-20%). Back in July, her lead was nine points (36%-27%). With that kind of advantage, and with about three months until the early nominating contests begin, doesn’t each debate become more and more important for the candidates chasing her?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what Barack Obama can do, going into tonight's Democratic debate, to stop Hillary Clinton from walking away with the Democratic nomination.
*** A Lot Has Happened In The Past Month: The last Democratic debate took place in mid-August, and much has happened since then. The Petraeus report. The MoveOn ad that overshadowed it. The 9/11 anniversary. The strange Norman Hsu story. Clinton’s health-care rollout. And the candidates’ pledge not to campaign in Florida and Michigan. Will those be the big storylines tonight? Or will they be other issues? Speaking of, don’t miss today’s front-page Wall Street Journal report of a Bill Clinton-connected business dealing gone bad, or Adam Nagourney’s piece on how the front-runner doesn’t always become the nominee.
*** Three Things To Watch For: 1) How many times will Clinton laugh? We've noticed an interesting pattern: Whenever Clinton gets a tough question or is attacked by an opponent directly, she deflects the criticism with laughter. So, if Clinton's doubled-over in laughter most of the night, we'll know she's the target. 2) How many times have we believed THIS would be the debate that Obama goes after Clinton? With just a handful of debates left for him (since he's skipping any of them not sanctioned by the DNC), he doesn't have too many more opportunities to go after her. 3) There's an expectation that Edwards will take direct aim at Clinton, but what if he decides to attempt to show distinction more with Obama? One can argue that he needs to send a message to the MSM that he -- and not Obama -- is the chief Clinton alternative.
*** Other Questions: As for the others in the field, will Richardson make it through one debate without having a head-scratching moment? Will Biden continue stick up for Clinton (as he’s done in the past) or will he take aim at her (as he did at the AARP forum)? And then there's Dodd. He seems comfortable going after everyone ahead of him. Will he go more after Clinton or, say, an Edwards, who arguably is running the type of populist campaign that Dodd would like to run?
*** Trouble For The Dems? For the final installment of First Read’s look at the Democratic Party and its potential problems heading into 2008 -- despite everything going right for it at the moment -- we examine national security. Thanks largely to the Iraq war, Democrats today are in a stronger position on this issue than they’ve ever been. In the July NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats held a 15-point advantage over Republicans on the Iraq, and were even with the GOP on terrorism. (For a bit of perspective, Republicans had a whopping 36-point lead on terrorism back in October 2002.) But there is no doubt that the Republican Party pouncing on MoveOn’s anti-Petraeus ad -- and then the Democrats backing away from it -- exposed a hole in the Dems’ armor: They are still wary of any GOP effort to portray them as not supporting the troops.
*** MoveOn-ed? Indeed, with the Democratic candidates vowing not to vote for any war-funding bill unless it comes with a timetable for withdrawal, are they setting themselves up to be MoveOn-ed? Also, don’t forget this comment from Hillary Clinton back in late August: “If certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world.” Is she right?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, there are (or were) a couple of interesting events. Edwards was supposed to be in Buffalo rallying with striking United Auto Workers members, but now has cancelled the event due to a settlement between the UAW and GM. And Giuliani, in another high-profile meeting with world leaders, meets with Iraqi President Talabani at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 24 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 41 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 52 days
Countdown to Iowa: 110 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 115 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 132 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 405 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 482 days
The Dartmouth campus newspaper has the details on the format. “The debate will be broken into four segments, with three commercial breaks of approximately three minutes each dividing the segments… Candidates will have 90 seconds to respond to questions, and the moderators may award them 30 seconds of rebuttal time.” More: “Campus life will likely be disrupted for the first day of classes, as the Green is taken over by the Campaign Visibility Area, also known as the ‘free speech zone’ -- the only area where ralliers are allowed to demonstrate or display signs.”
The Union Leader looks at a new CNN/WMUR poll showing Clinton expanding her lead over Obama and Edwards.
Meanwhile, the RNC says it purchased online ads on 39 New Hampshire-related Web sites (including news sites and blogs). They feature an interactive game that allows users to guess which Democrat said what on important topics. The RNC also issued a press release early this morning noting how much money the Dem front-runners’ health-care and tax plans will costs US taxpayers.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The $9.11 fundraiser idea by some supporters participating in a Giuliani House Party seemed to cause the campaign a minor headache yesterday. We're guessing this won't be the last time the campaign has to distance itself from an over-eager supporter trying to invoke 9/11. Giuliani has a fine line to walk on this. As for this story, was the Giuliani campaign's "unfortunate" statement strong enough?
Giuliani hasn't been to Iraq but Iraq's coming to him. Giuliani added a meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani to his Wednesday schedule. The noon meeting at the Waldorf-Astoria allows Giuliani to continue showcasing his foreign policy understanding and provide an aura of presidentiality, one week after meeting with British officials in London.
Giuliani will head west Thursday for the rest of the week. The trip will focus on fundraising, but the mayor will also pick up an important endorsement in California. Former Gov. Pete Wilson is expected to announce his support Thursday in Santa Monica, according to the AP.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The candidate takes his criticism of Giuliani's $9.11 fundraiser a step further, and is capitalizing on the event. The Chicago Tribune reports that Biden's campaign is asking people to register their objection with a contribution of $20.08, $200.80 or even $2,008.00. Biden campaign manger Luis Navarro writes that they have "had enough of Republican candidates exploiting 9/11 for political purposes."
At last week’s AARP forum, Biden was critical of Richardson being governor of small state New Mexico, but the
Los Angeles Times' Don Frederick points out Biden's own state, in which he is a senator not governor, has a population of 853,476 versus New Mexico’s 1,954,599.
CLINTON: Has Clinton oddly benefited from low expectations throughout this campaign? One could argue that. In fact, check out this Bloomberg News report suggesting that Clinton might overtake Obama on the money front this quarter. Frankly, it's been shocking that Obama has outraised Clinton in the first half of this year. But if Clinton tops Obama this quarter (even if just by a little bit), it will be an exclamation point on what's been a great three-month run for Clinton.
CONTINUED >>
USA Today writes that presidential candidates and the political parties “will spend at least twice as much as they did in 2003-04 on TV ads before nominees are chosen, campaign advertising experts say. A record $100 million or more will likely be paid to put campaign ads on the air by the time the Republican and Democratic races are effectively over, likely some time in February.”
“‘We had $45 million spent on campaign ads in what was the primary race in 2003 and 2004,’ says Evan Tracey, chief operating officer at the Campaign Media Analysis Group of TNS Media Intelligence, which measures political advertising. ‘It's easy to say there will be two times that. It certainly goes to $100 million.’”
New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner may announce the dates for the filing period soon. It's supposed to be in the first week of November, so an earlier filing will be the first clue to when the actual primary will be. "At this point, the most I can say is it doesn't appear it will be any later than the 8th of January," said Gardner.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post carries this quote from a military person on background on the Blackwater situation. “‘This is a nightmare,’ said a senior U.S. military official. ‘We had guys who saw the aftermath, and it was very bad. This is going to hurt us badly. It may be worse than Abu Ghraib, and it comes at a time when we're trying to have an impact for the long term.’ The official was referring to the prison scandal that emerged in 2004 in which U.S. soldiers tortured and abused Iraqis.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times writes, “MoveOn.org said yesterday that it paid The New York Times $77,508 after the newspaper revealed that its advertising department had undercharged the organization for an advertisement that ran two weeks ago and proved controversial.”
“A major expansion of government health insurance to nearly 4 million children passed the House of Representatives Tuesday, but without enough Republican support to overcome President Bush's promised veto. The vote was 265-159, with 45 Republicans supporting the bill. It would take 289 votes to override the president's veto.”
The New York Times: “Explaining his objections [to the legislation], Mr. Bush said, ‘The bill goes too far toward federalizing health care and turns a program meant to help low-income children into one that covers children in some households with incomes of up to $83,000 a year.’ Senator Charles E. Grassley, an Iowa Republican and a co-author of the bill, said the president’s charge was ‘factually incorrect.’ The goal, Mr. Grassley said, is to sign up low-income youngsters who are already eligible but not enrolled in the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
We reported earlier that Daily Kos held a Democratic presidential straw poll Sept. 24. Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas said he voted for someone and had the site's viewers vote on who they thought he voted for. Turns out he voted for Dodd.
Kos: "I voted for Chris Dodd. Only 22% of you got that right? I thought it'd be more obvious than that. Not that this means he's likely to get my vote in February. I don't throw away my votes, so unless he's become surprisingly competitive in January, I'll be looking elsewhere. It just means he really outshone the other candidates these past few weeks and made me think, for the first time in a while, 'THIS is how I want my nominee to sound.'
"Oh, and I won't do an 'endorsement' in this race. I assume you have your own brains to guide you in that process."
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum, NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Aswini Anburajan and NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
At Little Rock Central High School's 50th Anniversary Commemoration Ceremony, Bill Clinton took center stage. He was the commemorative speaker at today's ceremony and the chairman of the Little Rock Nine Gala last night. He asked all in attendance to reflect on, 50 years later, what Americans do for their children. Clinton emphasized showing gratitude, replicating excellence in schools, and being personally responsible in creating change. Clinton, who was 11 in 1957, said the event impacted his life to work for true equality.
"They made me decide, not just have an opinion, but to have a conviction," Clinton said. "We all should be grateful to people in life who make us move from opinion to conviction."
Like Clinton, Huckabee, another former governor of Arkansas, was in attendance, but he was certainly stuck in Clinton's shadow today. Bill and Hillary Clinton had seats on the stage while Huckabee and his simply attended the ceremony with seats in the audience.
CONTINUED >>
...BUT DO THEY WANT HIM?
From NBC’s Andy Merten
In preparation for tomorrow night’s debate, Richardson is continuing to tout himself as the only candidate supporting a complete withdrawal from Iraq, as well as the seemingly favorite of the lefty NetRoots. The campaign released a four-and-a-half-minute web video yesterday, in which liberal bloggers laud the New Mexico governor for his plan, while questioning the motivations of the top-tier candidates. An abbreviated version of the video will begin playing on New Hampshire television today.
“Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all say they want to end the war in Iraq, but they support leaving thousands, even tens of thousands of troops behind – that doesn’t make any sense,” says Matt Stoller from OpenLeft.com in the 30-second the TV version. He is echoed by Christina Siun O’Connell of Firedoglake.com, who adds, “If you leave troops behind, you’re not ending the war.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In a fund-raising and promotional stunt, the Clinton campaign offers up a spot on the couch next to the former president to watch a debate. Three people will be picked through an online contest. The deadline is Sunday night.
“There are two things in this world that I love more than anything else -- my family and politics,” Clinton writes in an e-mail peppered with "Contribute" links. “So you can imagine just how fired up I get when Hillary is on the stage debating the issues that matter to our country. So here's an idea: why don't you and I share that excitement together during an upcoming debate. ...
"We'll sit down in front of a big TV with a big bowl of chips, watch the debate, and talk about the race."
From NBC/National Journal’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Yesterday Thompson appeared on Bill Bennett's conservative radio show Morning in America to discuss his hard-line views on Iran. Amongst the clamor of Republican voices criticizing Columbia University for its decision to host Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this past week, Thompson released a statement saying not only should Ahmadinejad not be invited to speak at an American university, he should not even be allowed on American soil.
Yesterday Bennett raised the argument that preventing a foreign head of state from landing in the United States when the purpose of his visit is to speak at the United Nations could be viewed as illegal under the United Nations charter, to which Thompson implied that the charter should include more "exceptions."
"There are exceptions to every rule, and there ought to be exceptions," Thompson said. "This is our home soil, and there ought to be an exception in our own minds whether it's written into the charter or not with regard to people who've declared war on us…I wouldn't mind a little controversy at the United Nations."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This goes in the TMI category, which has has too many additions this campaign:
From an Esquire profile of Edwards:
"I hope this isn't too personal," I said to Edwards, "but I was reading about how Elizabeth discovered her cancer this second go-around. It was a broken rib, correct?"
"Yes," Edwards said.
"The papers said you were hugging her -- which is always nice to hear, a married guy hugging his wife. It must have been bizarre. What happened, you just hugged her and heard a snap?"
"Maybe it is a little personal," Edwards said, laughing self-consciously.
"Maybe I don't want to know?"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we discussed how the public's dissatisfaction with Congress is perhaps rubbing off on the Democratic Party, given the party's first net-negative rating in about a year in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Still, we noted that the Democrats are viewed in a more positive light than their GOP counterparts. And a new USA Today/Gallup poll backs that up -- in fact, they even have a net-positive rating in the survey.
According to the poll, 51% view the Democratic Party favorably, compared with 38% who view it unfavorably. The numbers for the GOP are essentially reversed: 38% positive, 59% negative.
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum
An organization trying to combat childhood obesity has created a television spoof of Sen. Larry Craig's men's room incident called “Dirty Little Secret.” The ad targets U.S. senators drafting the Farm Bill, who support subsidies for high-fat foods such as bacon and burgers that make their way to school-lunch programs.
The ad, created by the non-profit Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine (PCRM), features a man in a bathroom stall tapping his foot, signaling that he is ready to receive political contributions from the pork industry. "In turn, Congress buys up millions of dollars of these products and dumps them on our schools," the ad’s announcer says. "Companies get rich. Kids get fat. Is your Senator on the gravy train? Find out at StopChildhoodObesityNow.org"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
Just in time for the coming election year, the US Supreme Court today agreed to consider whether states can require voters to show a photo ID at the polling place to case a vote.
Eleven states now require voters to show IDs. Georgia's law requires the ID to have a photo, and so does Indiana -- which is the state law the court today agreed to review. It's considered the nation's strictest.
Opponents of the law argue that it will reduce voter participation, because it makes it harder for older residents, the poor, racial minorities, and people with disabilities to muster the necessary documents that are required to get a driver's license or state-issued photo ID card. Advocates of the law say showing a photo ID is a small price to pay to reduce voter fraud. In upholding the law, a federal appeals court said photo IDs have become such a part of American life that using one for voting is only a minimal burden.
There's a partisan aspect to this argument that goes beyond constitutional rights. Advocates of voter ID requirements tend to be Republicans, and opponents are generally Democrats. The court will probably hear the case in December 2007 or January 2008.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
HANOVER, NH --
*** Hillary’s final hurdle? So far this campaign season, Clinton has cleared -- at least right now -- three important hurdles: 1) the past Clinton baggage; 2) questions about her gender; and 3) her Iraq war vote. But her Democratic rivals now are focusing on what may be her final hurdle: electability. Yesterday, when he endorsed Obama, former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Gordon Fischer touched on this when he said that Obama had the best chance of winning the White House and helping downballot candidates. Also, in reference to President Bush’s comment that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, a Dodd spokeswoman said: "I can understand why the President would want Senator Clinton to be the nominee." Ouch. Of course, Democrats -- right now -- believe that Clinton is the most electable candidate. In this month’s NBC/WSJ poll, 54% of Democratic voters said Clinton has the best chance of defeating the Republicans in 2008. But dig a bit deeper in the poll and you'll notice a ceiling for Clinton. For instance, when matched up against the least known major GOP candidate (Huckabee), Clinton nabs just 50%.
*** Bill’s power: Just how powerful is Bill Clinton? It appears, according to the Politico, that he helped kill a GQ article by Atlantic Monthly writer Joshua Green that wasn’t all that friendly to the Clinton campaign. Whether it’s helping rack up congressional endorsements for his wife, preventing labor groups from endorsing other candidates, or even helping to kill negative stories, this is Bill’s real power in this race: leverage.
*** Land to the rescue: A week after James Dobson criticized Thompson, Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention comes to Thompson’s defense. Land tells CBN’s Brody: “I’ve received phone calls and emails from Southern Baptists about Senator Thompson. They are all furious at Doctor Dobson. They just feel that first of all there was a mischaracterizing of his positions. Do I wish that he supported the marriage protection amendment? Of course I do. To say that he is for 50 different views of marriage in 50 different states is a gross mischaracterization of his position. Secondly, do I wish that he attended church every Sunday? As a Baptist pastor, of course I do. But does that make him a person of unbelief? That’s harsh and unwarranted.” Land's likely support for Thompson has been on display for months. Dobson may have a large audience, but Land (a Southerner) may be a more important ally in a GOP primary.
**
Let the Borat jokes begin: The Giuliani campaign is raising money in
Kazakhstan from Americans living there.
***
Trouble for the Dems? Before tomorrow’s Democratic debate on MSNBC, moderated by NBC’s Tim Russert, we’re taking a look at some potential problems for Democrats in 2008, even though they’re in better position than they’ve been in years. Yesterday, we looked at some cautionary data regarding independents (a must-win group for Democrats and a group that's BIG here in New Hampshire). Today, we examine some of the disenchantment with the Democratic-controlled Congress. Per this month’s NBC/WSJ poll, only 23% approve of Congress’ job. More importantly, the Democratic Party -- for the first time in nearly a year -- has a net-negative rating on the feeling thermometer (34% positive/38% negative). “Dissatisfaction with Congress has dragged down the image of the Democratic Party,” pollster Neil Newhouse (R) told First Read. Of course, the GOP’s rating is even worse (31% positive/47% negative). And, by a 47%-35% margin, voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a GOP-controlled one.
*** Meet the new boss, same as the old boss? Still, did voters expect more change from a Democratic Congress? Yes, it did pass a minimum-wage hike and has been a check on the White House. And, yes, Bush has thwarted much of what the Democrats have wanted to do. But the facts are this: Gridlock, party infighting, and the Iraq war all continue. The Democratic front-runners are promising change. But with Congress unable to deliver on change -- so far -- could such a message end up falling on deaf ears?
*** Another labor cattle call: It wasn’t too long ago that a handful of labor unions -- including SEIU, the Carpenters, the Farm Workers, and the Teamsters -- broke away from the AFL-CIO and formed their own federation, Change To Win. The reason for the split: Those unions though the AFL was too focused on politics and not enough on organizing. Well, today Change to Win gets a dose of politics when Obama, Edwards, and Clinton (in that order) address the group in Chicago. This front-runner cattle call comes just a day after the United Auto Workers -- an AFL member -- went on strike against GM.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Biden is in Boston; Huckabee is in Arkansas, where he attends the commemoration ceremony of Central High’s 50th anniversary of integration; McCain is in Texas, where (among other things) he participates in a roundtable discussion on Israel in Houston; Obama, after addressing Change to Win, campaigns in Portland, ME; and Romney raises money in California.
*** Another "Super Tuesday": For more on these things -- and much, much more -- tune into another round of MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 25 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 42 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 53 days
Countdown to Iowa: 111 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 116 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 133 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 406 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 483 days
The New York Times’ David Brooks looks at the power of the netroots within the Democratic Party and concludes it may not be as powerful as they think.
After an eight-hour meeting in Chicago yesterday, the executive board of the Service Employees International Union decided not to endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary for now. The executive board will revisit the issue of an endorsement on October 8, after the third quarter fund-raising totals are in. The delay in choosing a candidate to endorse gives Obama the opportunity to meet with and persuade SEIU leaders that he is the best contender, and the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that "there are elements within the leadership who want to stop Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is the front-runner…."
BIDEN: The candidate has an op-ed in the Columbia State today that outlines his partition plan for Iraq.
Yesterday, the campaign announced that Biden had picked up his ninth endorsement from an Iowa legislator: House Speaker Pro Tempore Polly Bukta (D-Clinton).
CONTINUED >>
Florida Republicans are using the feud between the Florida Democratic Party and the DNC
as a recruiting tool. The GOP is set to send out a mailer this week warning targeted Florida Dems that because of political infighting their vote may not be counted. Included in the mailer: a form to change voter registration.
This is interesting. The NRA, which hasn't tried to play an influential role in presidential primaries in the past, is contemplating getting actively involved in this campaign. The Washington Times: “‘Historically, we have not gotten involved in primaries. We traditionally wait until after the conventions,’ said Chris Cox, head lobbyist for the NRA. ‘That being said, given the candidates and the process and the front-loading of the primaries, it is a possibility that we could get involved in one of these presidential primaries.’”
The article adds that "Fred Thompson, who earned an ‘A’ rating from the NRA during his time in the Senate, was the group's favorite. Meanwhile, the GOP front-runner, Rudolph W. Giuliani, left members underwhelmed."
GIULIANI: Every GOP candidate tried to get in on the Ahmadinejad-Columbia University bashing yesterday, but it appears Giuliani got the most attention for his tough words, thanks to Hannity.
That said, Romney did put money behind his criticism with a radio ad criticizing the UN for inviting the Iranian leader to speak. The ad is running in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida.
CONTINUED >>
USA Today previews Bush’s speech before the UN today. “The president who challenged the United Nations to take a hard line with Iraq will take a softer approach when he addresses Tuesday's annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. Important but relatively non-controversial issues such as illiteracy, poverty and African economic development will occupy much of President Bush's U.N. agenda, in contrast with previous years when terrorism or Iraq were the main topics.”
More: “Bush will follow his address today by meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. It will be their first face-to-face encounter since a gunbattle this month that killed about a dozen Iraqis and prompted al-Maliki to criticize the role of U.S. private security contractors operating in Iraq outside his government's jurisdiction.”
In an hourlong interview with the Boston Globe's editorial board, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wanted to make one thing clear: "We have to make it very clear to the American people that it was George Bush's war [but] it is now the Republicans in Congress's war." She expressed frustration that many view Democrats as having failed to end the war in Iraq after they were elected to majorities in the House and Senate in 2006, largely as a mandate to end the war. "The Republicans in the Senate have guarded the gate," Pelosi said, calling the Republicans' blocking of the Webb amendment a turning point.
CONTINUED >>
“Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) should not be allowed to withdraw his guilty plea to charges of disorderly conduct because he fully understood the legal process leading up to the deal, the Minnesota prosecutor who handled the case contended in legal documents filed today,” the Washington Post writes. “In a 41-page motion that seeks to preserve Craig's guilty plea to misdemeanor disorderly conduct charges, prosecutor Christopher P. Renz charged that Craig was upset with the political results of his plea but has no legal grounds to overturn it.”
More: “‘The real basis for the defendant's motion -- displeasure with the outcome -- is not an appropriate basis for relief sought,’ wrote Renz, who noted that he spoke with Craig three times over a six-week period before the plea. ‘The court should also deny the defendant's motion as untimely because it was sought only as a political reaction.’”
NBC's Joel Seidman reports that another element of the mystery Craig is promised to be revealed today. According to Judy Smith -- the public relations guru to Craig's super-lawyer, Billy Martin -- we will know Tuesday whether Craig will fly back through the same Minneapolis airport where he was arrested and appear before a judge who he has asked to reverse his guilty plea.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Elissa Davis
Citing Hillary Clinton's devotion to the middle class, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. "Hillary Clinton is a seasoned, experienced leader who will be ready to lead this country on Day One," Bayh said during a news conference with Clinton.
Bayh, who previously was in the running for the Democratic nomination, is from a Republican-leaning state. Clinton said his endorsement "underscores my commitment for running a national campaign." She compared her presidential run to her previous Senate races, where she campaigned all over the state, including "red New York."
"I believed that I was running to be the Senator for the entire state,” Clinton said, “not a segment of the state, not a set of constituencies in the sate, but the entire state. I feel the very same way about my campaign for the presidency."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Abby LivingstonEdwards spent an hour today discussing his health-care plan at a forum hosted by Families USA and the Kaiser Family Foundation in downtown Washington, DC. After the forum, he was asked about Iranian President
Ahmadinejad's appearance at Columbia University. "I think denying him the ability to go to Ground Zero is clearly the right decision," Edwards said. "I personally find the things that he speaks about extraordinarily objectionable. And he is, he denies the Holocaust, he talks about wiping Israel off the face of the planet, he diatribes against America and what America represents. I find all those things abhorrent. I think this is for Columbia to decide whether they want a man like this to be able to speak at their university."
He described the differences between his plan and Hillary
Clinton's as, "They're in the weeds," but emphasized yet again that he came out with his plan seven months ago. Edwards also focused on reducing costs, wanting to enable the government to negotiate for prescription drugs with the pharmaceutical companies, allowing the purchase of drugs from Canada and ending drug company television advertising within constitutional legal limits. Another cost-saving measure he proposed affects those within his own previous profession: trial lawyers. Edwards suggested that those lawyers who bring to court frivolous lawsuits should be forced to bear the legal costs of such a case, rather than the patient.
From NBC's Tom Lea
The prosecutor in the Larry Craig case filed a "memorandum" to the court which states:
"The essence of the defendant's motion is that the Court should allow him to withdraw his plea because he was under the strain of a newspaper investigation and purportedly relied on the arresting officer's statements relating to a potential outcome. There is nothing about the circumstances of the Defendant's plea that comes close to surpassing the high bar of 'manifest justice' that must be reached for the Defendant to be granted the rare relief of plea withdrawal. The Defendant's plea to the elements of the crime of disorderly conduct is sufficient. In addition, denial of the Defendant's motion prevents further politicking and game playing om the part of the Defendant in relation to his plea.
"The Defendant unequivocally pled guilty to the crime of disorderly conduct. The Court should deny the Defendant's motion and uphold the plea that the Defendant made to this Court."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Candidates reacted today to the United Auto Workers strike at General Motors plants:
BIDEN: “I fully support the UAW's right to strike. American automakers have made promises to their hard-working employees and must do their best to uphold those commitments. Both sides in these talks are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I urge them to return to the table and find a resolution as quickly as possible. Today's events remind us that American automakers need help with health care costs. To keep health care affordable I believe we have to help employers or union-run health plans with catastrophic costs to keep health care affordable for workers, retirees, and their families."
CLINTON: “There is a role for presidential leadership,” she said, adding that union leaders had sought a meeting with Bush but “they were rebuffed repeatedly. Finally there was a meeting that occurred with no follow-up."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Erin McPike and Domenico Montanaro
On the heels of headlines blaring Romney's revamped stump speech as a means to distance himself from the unpopular President Bush, Romney issued a statement this afternoon praising Bush for talking tough on the budget.
"I applaud the president for his message of budget restraint," the statement begins. But then it goes on: “Change in Washington begins with Republicans standing up for fiscal discipline.”
Republican candidates are clearly walking a fine line on the issue of President Bush. With his approval ratings low and widespread disapproval of the war in Iraq, is President Bush a help or a hindrance to Republican candidates?
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The 100,000-member Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers (BAC) endorsed Clinton today, the campaign announced.
“Hillary Clinton has the strength and experience to deliver the change America needs,” said BAC President John J. Flynn in a statement released by the campaign. “After years of an administration that has turned its back on working families, we need a President whose priorities are our priorities. …she’s worked hard for BAC members and we intend to work hard for her election.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Giuliani spoke to a receptive audience in Portland, Maine, today at the National Troopers Coalition meeting. After his speech, he told Portland NBC affiliate WCSH that it was an "outrage" for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to speak at Columbia University. "His government is helping the people to kill American troops right now, today," Giuliani said.
He also got a few laughs when he said he would not answer an audience member's ringing cell phone. "I got in trouble for that a couple of days ago," he said. Afterward, Giuliani attended a fundraiser in Portland before heading back to New York for several others.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- While national GOP primary polls show what could become a protracted fight between Giuliani and Thompson, this weekend’s Republican Leadership Conference in Michigan revealed that right now the battle there might boil down to Romney and McCain.
Unlike his top three rivals who spoke before him, cameras didn’t swarm McCain when he made his way to the podium in the sprawling dining room of Mackinac’s Grand Hotel to speak before the dinner crowd. He may have been last in the order of the presidential contenders on the docket with his Saturday night pitch, but attendees gave him the warmest reception and buzzed about it afterward.
Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis said to reporters on Sunday morning, “I think John McCain gave the best speech I’ve ever seen him give. I told him that. It was from the heart, it was well-delivered.” Anuzis implied that McCain needed this kind of boost by indicating that there was some “anguish” among McCain supporters in the state leading up to the weekend’s event due to last week’s resignation by McCain’s former state chairman, Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli
KEENE, N.H. -- Tancredo, who skipped the NRA Convention in Washington on Friday, put his Second Amendment credentials on display here Sunday, serving as the Celebrity Guest Shooter at a fundraiser for local Republicans. “As opposed to other people who have made the statement, I have actually hunted all my life,” Tancredo said.
The Colorado congressman played the mark, meaning anyone who hit more targets than him in the three-phase competition was entered into a raffle for prizes, which included frozen turkeys. Tancredo, who did not use any of his own guns, joked after that he shot just poorly enough to ensure that everyone finished better than him. “It’s just what you have to do, right?” he asked.
“I think he did pretty well,” said Juliana Bergeron, chair of the Cheshire County GOP. “Everybody says it’s different if you’re not shooting with your own guns.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Romney is up with a new 60-second radio ad touting his refusal, as governor, of a state police escort for former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami when he was invited to Harvard to speak in 2006.
The ad begins airing today as part of the campaign's rotation in Iowa and South Carolina, and then Florida later in the week.
CLICK MORE FOR THE SCRIPT OF THE AD
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The former head of the Iowa Democratic Party, Gordon Fischer, endorsed Obama today on a conference call with reporters. Fischer said his reasons for supporting Obama is because of his electability, ability to be a change agent and policies.
“I am desperate to win the White House,” Fischer said. “I think Senator Obama has the best chance of all the Democrats. It’s not enough to just get Democrats out. You have to bring along Indendents and Republicans, and he’s in the best position to bring along independents and some Republicans.”
On electability, he said Obama would be help “down ballot candidates.” When asked if that was a shot at Clinton, he said he likes Clinton and thinks she’s electable, just not as electable as Obama. As a change agent, he said Obama brings “freshness” and a “new perspective” to the race. On his policies, Fischer, who said he and his wife Monica made the decision over the weekend, said he’s been “impressed” with Obama’s “bold ideas,” particularly his recent middle-class tax cut proposal.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Clear Front-Runner: An important threshold has finally been crossed for Clinton: Even her opponents have joined the media in acknowledging that there is just one front-runner in the Democratic race. Considering where she started six months ago, it's a remarkable feat. She's done it without winning a single caucus or primary. Only Gore in '99 and Mondale in '83 were in this strong of a position in the last five contested Democratic contests. The question now is if and when Clinton has her next scare. The first one was during the first three months of the campaign, when Obama topped her in fundraising. If there is a downside to Clinton solidifying her front-runner status, it raises her expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Of course, Clinton supporters would argue she ALWAYS had high expectations she had to meet in those states.
VIDEO:
NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his firstread on Hillary Clinton's front-runner status plus some thoughts on the Michigan GOP straw poll.***
Romney’s Challenge: You get the impression that both Obama (in the Dem field) and Romney (in the GOP one) have sort of stalled. They’ve both met expectations but haven’t exceeded them -- and politics is often about exceeding expectations. For Romney in particular, he has to find a way to make the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire (which he’s leading) count. Will his strategy of portraying himself as the conservative change candidate pay off?
*** Trouble For The Dems? Before the first GOP presidential debate last spring, which was moderated by MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, First Read took a look at some of the problems afflicting today’s GOP (like Iraq, diversity, and competence in government). Pegged to Wednesday’s Democratic debate, moderated by NBC’s Tim Russert, we turn our attention this week to some of the Democrats’ potential problems heading into 2008. Today’s installment: independent voters. Polls typically show that about 30%-35% of Americans identify themselves as conservatives, versus about 20%-25% of Americans who identify themselves as liberals. That means that Democrats, to win a national election, have to do well with independent voters. It didn’t happen in 2004, when John Kerry -- per the exit polls -- narrowly won the independent vote, 49%-48%.
*** Independents Day: Last year, by comparison, House Democratic candidates creamed Republicans with independent voters, 57%-39%, which helped them regain control of Congress. Will Democrats keep that up in 2008? Maybe, maybe not. In the April NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats held a 21-point advantage with independents in a generic presidential ballot question. But in this month’s poll, that lead shrunk to eight points. What’s more, the Democratic front-runner -- Hillary Clinton -- had a 39%-42% fav/unfav rating with independents in the most recent NBC/WSJ survey. Compare that with Giuliani’s 39%-34% fav/unfav. And we have yet to delve into the latest fall phenomenon: Democratic voter disenchantment with the new Democratic Congress (which we’ll discuss more later this week).
*** The Born-Again Fiscal Conservative: In what’s appearing to be a budget showdown between the White House and Congress, President Bush makes a statement on the budget this morning, in which he’s expected to accuse the Democrats of fiscal irresponsibility. Is the pot calling the kettle black here? Over the weekend, the Heritage Foundation’s Brian Reidl told the New York Times that the federal government has grown at a rate of 7% a year under Bush; under Clinton, it was 3.5% a year. While the Iraq war has been a big chunk of that increase, Reidl added that nonmilitary discretionary spending has grown faster under Bush than Clinton. So why is Bush going after Democrats here? Is it because he’s itching for a fight?
*** On The Trail: Clinton is in DC and she picks up an endorsement from Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh; Edwards is also in DC, where he unveils his strategy to combat HIV/AIDS; Giuliani travels to Maine, where he speaks to the National Troopers Coalition; Kucinich appears on Leno; McCain is in Chicago and Milwaukee; Obama is in New York and Chicago; and Romney heads to Santa Clara, CA, where he holds an “Ask Mitt Anything” town hall.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 26 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 43 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 54 days
Countdown to Iowa: 112 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 117 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 134 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 407 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 484 days
NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports… Attendees of the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference at the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island, MI over the weekend were billing Fred Thompson's much anticipated speech on Saturday as an important first impression. But from the outset, Thompson was suffering from an organizational disadvantage caused mostly by the absence of a fulltime Michigan staff, which caused the campaign to have virtually no physical presence on the island, including relatively few Thompson '08 signs and only a handful of volunteers.
This stacked up poorly with Romney’s better-organized operation. The Romney camp provided buses, hotel accommodations and ferry tickets for well over 60 members of College Republican groups from nearby schools to travel to the remote conference on Mackinac Island. In many cases, the campaign also paid to credential its volunteers, ensuring that a significant number of supporters were a eligible to stand outside the conference's events, passing out stickers and encouraging people to vote for Mitt in the weekend's straw poll.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York senator hit all the Sunday morning shows yesterday, including NBC’s Meet the Press. The Washington Post says that she “demonstrated a particularly senatorial skill: the art of the filibuster… Above all, though, in a morning of appearances that yielded virtually no news, Clinton illustrated her ability to talk. And talk. And talk.”
The New York Daily News called it “TV’s Tour de Hillary.” On Meet the Press, Clinton touted her ability to withstand Republicans’ “withering attacks.” “I think I've proven that I not only can survive them but surpass them," she said.
The
Sunday New York Times had a CW-setting piece about Clinton's place in the campaign. "She has been challenged for fund-raising supremacy and news media attention by Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina beat her to the punch in introducing big policy proposals. But nothing that her main rivals have done has so far has derailed Mrs. Clinton, leading them to begin rolling out aggressive new strategies aimed primarily at her, including courting black voters in South Carolina and stepping up attacks."
CONTINUED >>
The Des Moines Register recruited 10 likely GOP caucus-goers and finds the race to be very fluid. "The perfect president would be someone with the intellectual capacity of Newt Gingrich, the leadership of Rudy Giuliani, the communication skills of Fred Thompson, and the toughness of John McCain, said John Schaffner, 63, of Altoona… Of the 10 members of the GOP group, seven said they feel they have made progress personally and financially in the last four years. Three said they stayed the same. None felt worse off. ... Whom do they favor? One member of the interview group was firmly behind McCain; one was for Tom Tancredo; and one was for Ron Paul. Two were leaning toward Giuliani but also found Mitt Romney intriguing."
Speaking of fluid, the New York Times on Sunday noted the same thing in its own CW-setting piece. Still, read between the lines and one gets the sense that the BIG showdown for the top three (Rudy, Thompson and Romney) will be in South Carolina. All have something to prove in that early state.
CONTINUED >>
It's official -- sort of: Florida Democrats will not be represented at the DNC convention next year, unless the eventual Democratic nominee intervenes. The Florida Democratic Party plans to insist on holding its primary on Jan. 29, forcing the DNC to punish the state officially.
Looking ahead to the general election, Newsweek takes a look at the truce that Democrats are trying to seek with evangelical Christians.
The AP’s Nancy Benac on which party’s leading on ideas: “The Democrats who are running for president are flush with policy proposals, position papers and fact sheets. The leading Republican contenders, not so much.”
And so the conservative media is right? The New York Times admits to giving MoveOn a discount for the group’s ad attacking General Petraeus. They claim it's a mistake... That'll be believed at Newsbusters and Rush.
Yesterday, MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser released this statement regarding the ad rate: “Now that the Times has revealed this mistake for the first time, and while we believe that the $142,083 figure is above the market rate paid by most organization, out of an abundance of caution we have decided to pay that rate for this ad. We will therefore wire the $77,083 difference to the Times tomorrow (Monday, September 24, 2007). We call on Mayor Giuliani, who received exactly the same ad deal for the same price, to pay the corrected fee also.” What say you, Giuliani campaign?
House GOP leader John Boehner is
not happy with NRCC Chair Tom Cole and his staff. Apparently, Boehner wants Cole to fire his top two NRCC aides, and Cole is threatening to quit if forced to do that. Isn't this just simply a coach blaming the coordinator for having to play a tough road while also under-manned? Seems like frustrations are boiling over.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
At a middle school in Des Moines this afternoon, Edwards called for full funding of No Child Left Behind, universal preschool, better teacher training and mentoring, and more funding for struggling school districts. Edwards gave the speech on the same day he unveiled Iowa Education Professionals for Edwards, a group of 214 Iowa teachers who are supporting him.
"Education is an issue that's enormously personal for me," Edwards said. He recalled that his daughter Emma Claire went through third grade with a good teacher, who was forced to teach to the end-of-the-year test. He called for teachers to have more control of their classrooms and for increased pay, especially for those serving in low-income districts.
He proposed a national teaching university, more scholarships for high-achieving students who want to teach, and mentoring for young teachers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Giuliani told the National Rifle Association much of what they wanted to hear Friday about his support for Second Amendment rights, but he left the conference with few converts.
“I think he is sincere. I just don’t know if he truly believes it down deep inside,” said Thomas Crum, a retired trucking executive from Scottsdale, AZ. “I have a little difference with him just beginning to realize what his position really is.”
Most members of the gun lobby who attended Friday’s “A Celebration of American Values” conference said they were encouraged by Giuliani’s appearance and what he said about support for gun rights. But most also said they were concerned about his track record supporting gun control as mayor of New York City, and favored other candidates in the Republican presidential primary.
Bob Bell, a salesman from Clarkesville, MD, said he respected Giuliani’s leadership during the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, but preferred Thompson, a longtime supporter of Second Amendment rights. Bell said Giuliani’s mayoral record -- including his advocacy for the assault weapons ban and lawsuits against gun manufacturers -- weighed heavy on him. “He was a mayor of New York City, and try and get a gun permit up there,” he said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Yesterday, Biden's campaign blasted Richardson for changing his position on troop withdrawal from Iraq. Then, just hours later at the AARP forum, Biden -- with a smile on his face, as always -- jabbed the New Mexico governor after Richardson talked about his experience dealing with health care.
"My good friend from New Mexico, God love him. His state's a couple million people," Biden said. "Give me a break. He can pull that together. Pull together 300 million people. That's like saying, you know, 'I played halfback when I was in high school; I can play in the pros' -- a different deal."
Well today, the Biden camp is once again going after Richardson -- this time charging that the New Mexico governor imposed an $8-a-day tax (which he later repealed) on nursing home beds to make up for a shortfall in Medicaid.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Lauren Appelbaum
Will this line work with Democratic primary voters? For the general election, sure. But primary voters?
Here is Richardson today addressing the NRA confab, via videotape (emphasis is ours): "As a governor, a westerner, a supporter of our individual freedoms, and a Democrat, I urge all NRA members to stay involved in the election of candidates of both political parties. In America, we have a long and honorable tradition of solving our problems in a bi-partisan manner. Your voice needs to be heard. When I'm president, it will be. Today, I am proud to join you in celebrating freedom. And I thank you for your support."
Richardson's support for gun rights isn't a surprise, however. As NBC's Chuck Todd has constantly said, Richardson is perhaps the NRA's favorite presidential candidate of this cycle -- from either party.
Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds tells First Read that the governor's position on guns is a winner in the primaries. "In a state like Iowa, gun ownership and hunting is something that's an important value to caucus-goers," he says.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Fred Thompson, who hopes to have support from conservative groups like the NRA, enjoyed a warm reception. He called for the protection of all basic rights. "We are here today not just because we support the Second Amendment," Thompson said, "we are here today for our support of the rest of the Constitution."
Asked about regulation at gun shows, Thompson responded, "Well, having just come from one --" referring to the gun show he visited in Florida last week. After some laughter, Thompson said the government should not restrict the rights of private citizens, in the home or at gun shows.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum
While addressing the NRA, McCain delivered several applause lines by attacking supporters of gun control, specifically Democrats. He defended gun owners' rights and outlined three gun control “myths” opponents use to support gun control. On “the hunting myth," McCain also implicitly took a shot at his Republican opponent, Romney.
“If you show your bona fides by hunting ducks or varmints or quail,” McCain said, “it makes up for support for gun control. This myth overlooks a fundamental truth: the Second Amendment is not about hunting; it is about freedom.”
And later he took his planned shot at Giuliani: “Some even call you ‘extremists,’” McCain said. “My friends, gun owners are not extremists; you are the core of modern America.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As mentioned earlier today, during his NRA speech, Giuliani's cellphone rang and he answered it. It was wife Judy on the phone.
We mentioned we've seen this before. In fact, a rival campaign sends us a YouTube clip of today's phone call and one from June.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Giuliani, who in the past has advocated gun control, was cordially received by the NRA today, centering his remarks on his now-familiar mantra -- borrowed from Ronald Reagan -- that "If you're my 80 percent friend, you're not my 20 percent enemy." He continued to channel from the former president, asserting that Reagan's "Peace through Strength" applies to law enforcement at home. "We need to step up enforcement against gun crimes and leave law-abiding citizens alone," he said, adding to heavy applause, "Time spent focusing on law-abiding, legal gun owners is time taken away from arresting and prosecuting the criminals who use guns."
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The GOP presidential front-runner made a pointed effort to present himself as a honest leader who will be upfront about any disagreements he may have with a constituency. "I think there's a certain value in knowing what you agree with and what you disagree with someone about." He concluded his speech, "I would love to have your support in the future, but mostly, I would like us to respect each other."
Giuliani got his best reception when he digressed from the topic of gun control and revisited his recent feud with MoveOn. "We passed a line that we should not allow any American political organization to pass," he said, decrying the decision of 24 Democratic senators -- including Hillary Clinton -- to vote against yesterday's resolution to shame the anti-war group for its ad attacking General Petraeus.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddGOP pollster Bill McInturff is leaving the
McCain campaign. The separation is amicable, and the campaign will go without pollster for the time being. McInturff will return as the Republican half of the NBC/Wall Street Journal polling team, beginning with the next survey.
From NBC's Andy Merten and NBC/NJ's Matt Berger
RESTON, Va. -- While Giuliani will be addressing a potentially skeptical crowd later today at the National Rifle Association convention in DC, he started the morning off with a breakfast speech here to a business technology group, an audience with whom he is certainly more in his element. He lauded the use of information technology in the military and intelligence community, saying, "Government has to figure out how to respond to that" to decrease its size and become more effective, but warned, "Democrats will put a lid on that growth."
Regarding today's expected veto of S-CHIP, the States' Children Health Insurance Program, by President
Bush, the former mayor said that he supports the president because some states would expand coverage to families making 400 percent above the poverty level. "We're going to take people off private insurance and put them on government insurance -- that's a disaster," he said.
Rudy received his loudest applause after saying that he hopes Congress will approve extending the moratorium on state and local taxation of Internet usage. He also was met with enthusiasm for his call for greater use of a "technology fence" to supplement cracking down on illegal immigration.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the NRA conference, while GOP Sen.
John Thune was speaking, a woman rushed into the ballroom holding a sign that said "honk for peace" on one side and showed a picture of dead children on the other side. She yelled "Don't Iraq Iran" and addressed the senator directly. "Please senator, don't Iraq Iran. Stop killing the children. You are all accomplices to war crimes. I will not stand any more bloodshed." A NRA member yelled at security, repeatedly saying "How the hell did she get in here? Get her out of here."
Thune, after the woman was forcefully removed, talked about rights and said basic rights included her right to speak her mind. Then he went on with his speech.
Later, another protest occurred when
McCain was speaking. Two women walked right in, making peace signs with hands and yelling for the troops to come home. After they were removed, McCain said, "Well, my friends, we beat you yesterday, we beat you the day before, and we'll best you today." He received a standing ovation. Then he implored the Democrats to reject the MoveOn ad.
From NBC/National Journal's Athena Jones
Former President
Bill Clinton was on Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” last night to talk about his latest book on philanthropy. He touched on many of the same themes he often visits when discussing his wife’s presidential run, saying that he thinks she’s the best qualified candidate; that he’d campaign for her even if they weren’t married; and that if she wins, he’ll support her and do whatever she asks of him.
Stewart tried to make real news by asking the president about money in politics. In response, Clinton talked about the difficulty of raising money to run a campaign, especially for members of Congress, who he said are sleep-deprived partly as a result of all the fundraising they have to do to stay in office. Clinton said that there should be a way for them and their competitors to run for election without having to go out five nights a week to raise the money they need to advertise on television and answer the attacks of their challengers. He said if this could be done “America would work better.”
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Rudy, get your gun: We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Giuliani’s speech today to the NRA -- and more importantly, how that speech is received -- is a big moment for the campaign. His record on guns is potentially more problematic with conservatives than his past statements on abortion or gay rights. Will the audience buy his argument that gun control should be left up to the states (which, by the way, is similar to what Howard Dean said on the issue in ’04)? Rudy isn’t the sole Republican presidential candidate who will be there. McCain, Thompson, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Gingrich (in that order) are addressing the NRA conference in DC today. Plus, Romney (“varmits"!), Richardson (a Democrat!), and Hunter will speak to the confab by videotape. In particular, Thompson has an opportunity to shine at the event, especially after getting dissed by James Dobson. Can he seize it?
*** Quick thoughts on last night’s forum: Did Clinton really refer to the "first Clinton Administration"? We rewound the TiVo and sure enough, she did. Talk about growing confidence... Meanwhile, the budding Biden vs. Richardson rivalry (is it some weird Secretary of State primary?) could be fun. Biden's clearly now aiming for the most gettable candidate for him in Iowa. Edwards once again showed his hesitancy in being overly aggressive to an Iowa audience. When given the chance to hit Clinton over lobbyist influence for her health care plan, he didn't take the bait (and instead praised her plan). But he tried more subtle digs. Chris Dodd was downright fiery. He was not quite as tough on Clinton at the forum as he was in an AP interview earlier in the afternoon, but he did attempt to create contrast with her and all of his rivals. The best part of this forum: With only five people on stage, one could tell the candidates LOVED it. Don't be surprised if Kucinich and Gravel stop getting invited to more forums debates once the calendar turns to October.
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Questions for Obama: The Democratic front-runner who didn’t show at yesterday’s AARP, Barack Obama, holds a “senior” town hall meeting in Ames, IA -- that, per the campaign, brings together senior citizens and high school seniors. But if Obama is talking to seniors in Iowa today, the question becomes: Why he didn’t talk to them at last night’s forum? It might have saved him from being dubbed the forum’s “big loser” by chief Iowa pundit David Yepsen. The other question hovering over Obama’s campaign is why he chose not to vote on yesterday’s Senate GOP resolution denouncing MoveOn. Clinton voted no on it, but Obama didn’t vote at all. Obama issued a statement saying that by not casting a vote, “I registered my protest against this empty politics.” But that statement came two and a half hours after First Read asked for a response. It was a strong statement, but why not say it in a more public way (i.e. verbalize it)?
*** Playing the outsider card: Speaking of Obama, he’s up with a new TV ad in Iowa on health care, which seems pegged to his senior town hall in the state. “Washington’s talked about health-care reform and reformed nothing. I’ve got a plan to cut costs and cover everyone. But unless we stop the bickering and the lobbyists, we’ll be in the same place 20 years from now,” he says in it. “I’m Barack Obama, and I approve this message because to fix health care, we have to fix Washington.” Doesn’t that last line sound very familiar to the new ad Romney is running? "If we're going to change Washington, Republicans have to put our own house in order,” the former Massachusetts governor says. “It's time for a change. And change begins with us.” Change is all the rage, and candidates in both parties realize the most authentic change agent is eventually going to get rewarded.
*** Iowa is just around the corner: For what seems like an eternity, we’ve been talking about how early this presidential race has started. Well, if you haven’t noticed -- whether you’re a candidate, voter, or journalist covering the contest -- it’s not so early anymore. The Iowa caucuses are just slightly more than three months away. Those caucuses, of course, signal only the beginning to a campaign season that will end about 14 months from today.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Biden and Dodd campaign in Iowa; Edwards also is in the state, where he delivers a policy address on education; Giuliani has already spoken to the Northern Virginia Technology Council; Kucinich talks to a union in Dayton, OH; and Romney is in Illinois. Also, the Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference begins today, and it will hear from the GOP candidates today and over the weekend.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 29 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 46 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 57 days
Countdown to Iowa: 115 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 120 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 137 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 410 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 487 days
The
New York Times covers the passage of yesterday’s Senate nonbinding resolution denouncing MoveOn. “Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, both Democratic candidates for president, voted against the resolution, which passed 72 to 25. But curiously absent from the vote was Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, also a Democratic candidate for president, who had canceled a campaign appearance in South Carolina so he could be in Washington for votes.”
VIDEO:
NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the politics of the "Petraeus-Betray us" adThe
Washington Post tries to put the controversy surrounding MoveOn into perspective. "Yesterday, an organization so small its 17 employees don't even have a central office, found itself under attack by not only President Bush, who said the ad was ‘disgusting,’ but also by the Democratic-controlled Senate, which passed a resolution 72 to 25 expressing its own outrage. Many Democrats blamed the group for giving moderate Republicans a ready excuse for staying with Bush and for giving Bush and his supporters a way to divert attention away from the war.”
More: “In an e-mail to its members last night, the group acknowledged that the content of the ad might have angered its allies but argued that a larger issue is at stake. ‘Maybe you liked our General Petraeus ad. Maybe you thought the language went too far,’ they wrote. ‘But make no mistake: this is much bigger than one ad.’”
And interestingly, "in a conference call with MoveOn members last night, Pariser acknowledged that some of the group's members did not like the ad. But, he said, ‘MoveOn is going to be as strong as ever.’ He added, ‘We definitely will be putting pressure on Democrats, and especially those who voted against us, in the near future, and we are currently working on the best way to do that.’”
The AP: “Senate Democrats defiantly charged ahead yesterday with legislation ordering troops home from Iraq, still lacking the votes to win but armed with the mantra that Republicans, along with President Bush, now own the war.”
The Los Angeles Times notes how Senate Democrats have been stymied on Iraq.
The Democratic candidates -- minus Obama, in particular -- debated in Iowa at an AARP-sponsored forum. Much of the discussion focused on health care. Biden said, "It's not the plan, it's the man or woman pushing it." Richardson said there doesn’t need to be a new tax to pay for universal health care. Edwards took issue. "It is time to tell people the truth,” he said. “And we cannot have universal health care for free.” Biden took the sharpest attack of the night, criticizing Richardson’s experience as governor of New Mexico. "That's like saying, 'I played halfback when I was in high school; I can play in the pros,' " Biden said. Dodd was critical of the Bush administration on social security: “It took the accumulation of 42 presidents to acquire the debt that one president has in just six years; it's a stunning statistic.”
The Daily Iowan: "Though the other candidates at the forum all had negative things to say about the Bush administration, they were more willing than Rodham Clinton to criticize their fellow Democrats."
As he has in recent debates,
Biden may have been the most compelling candidate to watch at the forum. His rant against Richardson and then, even, Clinton was perhaps one of the livelier moments. “‘I love Hillary Clinton. I'm getting beat up for saying some nice things about her,’ he said. But ‘let's be frank about this. What's changed to make you think Hillary is going to be able to put together the 15 percent of Republicans’ who will be needed to enact any overhaul of the health care system?”
The Des Moines Register's Yepsen calls Obama the big loser of the forum for not showing up. "Obama also faces real questions about his experience and whether he’s got enough to be a good president. He missed a chance to ease those fears by showing competency on two complicated issues important to most Americans, not just seniors. With him not on the field, the rest of the candidates had a better chance to shine and all did well."
When Steve and Jane Wagoner arrived at the Divided We Fail forum in Davenport last night, they were undecided, but by the time it was over they declared themselves Hillary Clinton fans, NBC/National Journal’s Tricia Miller reports. Jane named Edwards as her second choice. "He's got some really interesting things to say, but she's more presidential," she said. Steve, meanwhile, said his second choice would be Joe Biden, but insisted that he could be happy with any of the candidates onstage.
Bloomberg News looks at how gun owners aren't ready to believe that either Giuliani or Romney has become pro-gun. But the two most pro-gun top tier candidates -- McCain and Thompson -- supported McCain-Feingold, something the NRA in particular has railed against.
GINGRICH: In a roundtable with reporters yesterday, Gingrich outlined his beefs with a number of things, including the political system, Washington Republicans, the elite left, and other traditional Gingrich targets. He also singled out praise (as he's done before) for the new French leader Nicolas Sarkozy. As for a timeline on running for president, he's allowing a political aide take the month of October to see if he can secure financial commitments of $30 million. If he does, then expect Gingrich to get in. He even has a couple of announcement dates circled on the calendar: Nov 6 or Nov 13. The 6th is one year out from the general, and the 13th would be the 28th anniversary of Reagan's announcement in '79.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Before Biden’s back-and-forths last night with Richardson at last night’s AARP forum, the Delaware senator’s campaign took issue with Richardson’s recent statement that he’s the only Democratic candidate with a concrete plan to end the war -- and pointed out that Richardson had not always been in favor of pulling out all US forces from Iraq. “Governor Richardson is right that he represents both experience and change -- he has a lot of experience changing his mind on matters both large and small,” Biden campaign manager Luis Navarro said in a statement.
CLINTON: “Norman Hsu, the Democratic fund-raiser with a habit of fleeing the law, confessed to F.B.I. agents last week that he had swindled investors in what the government describes as a multimillion-dollar Ponzi scheme, and acknowledged pressuring at least some of them to contribute to political campaigns, prosecutors said in a criminal complaint unsealed yesterday,” the New York Times writes. “The complaint does not contend that Mr. Hsu confessed either to so vast a swindle or to reimbursing the donors. Nor does it specify which candidates received the illegal or coerced contributions, or who made them. But the authorities confirmed that one of the candidates was Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, whose presidential campaign has already said that it intends to return $850,000 to more than 200 people whose donations were bundled by Mr. Hsu.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times: “President Bush … threatened on Thursday to veto a bill expanding a popular children’s health insurance program, calling it ‘a step toward federalization of health care.’ The program expires Sept. 30, and Congress is on the verge of renewing it by providing coverage to an additional 4 million children over the 6.6 million already enrolled — at an additional cost of $35 billion over five years. Mr. Bush says the bill would expand a program aimed at helping the poor beyond its original intent.”
More: “The veto threat is just one of nearly a dozen the White House has issued recently aimed at a variety of bills including measures on education spending and financing for medical research. With the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, Mr. Bush and Congressional Democrats are headed for a showdown over spending similar to the one that preceded the government shutdown of 1995.”
The second GOP House retirement this week: Illinois Rep. Jerry Weller is calling it quits. He was within a few weeks of becoming “embattled," thanks to some controversies involving Latin American land holdings. The district itself is Republican leaning but just competitive enough that Democrats will likely target it.
And the FBI has been recording Alaska GOP Sen. Ted Stevens' phone calls. Stevens is up for re-election in 2008. Has he accumulated so much baggage that he can't win, even in Alaska? It's starting to look that way.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Back in the spin room, Sen. Chris Dodd continued his harsh words for Hillary Clinton's "scars" line about the lessons she learned from the health care policy collapse of 1993. "[If] we're talking about leadership that can get a job done, and what you point to is a point in time when policy failed, and leadership failed, it's a little difficult for me to accept that's the kind of experience you want to highlight." He went on to say that Clinton isn't the only one who suffered scars from the nineties implosion. "It's also the scars that millions of Americans have paid because fifteen years ago we didn't get the job done because of mismanagement."
And, speaking for Joe Biden, state senator Joe Seng (D-Davenport) said there's a method to the senator's jokes about the rumors that he's running for Secretary of State. "I think he had a reason for that, and I think he's exploited it," he said of Biden's laughing mention of the media speculation about the job he's "really" angling for. "He's the only candidate who's been suggested as Secretary of State, and for good reason."
That's it from Davenport. Goodnight!
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- That's it for the forum. I'm off to the Spin Room. Stay tuned for what the campaigns have to say about their guy (or woman's) performance tonight!
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Here's the first mention of the absent Obama. Woodruff asked Richardson and Edwards about Obama's plan to slash taxes on the poor and middle class. Both used the question to detail their own plans to strengthen the middle class, but neither took the bait to talk about the no-show rival.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
DAVENPORT, IA -- It might not be the number-one issue for all of the voters here in the audience -- most of whom have a strong health care focus -- but Iraq's still the elephant in the room at any debate. Woodruff saved it for the final question, and it was a toughie: A year after you leave office, how many residual US troops would still be in Iraq?
Biden said it depends on what "this guy [Bush] leaves me" as far as progress on a political solution in Iraq. Clinton echoed the same: "It would be irresponsible to stand here and tell you what's going to happen" without knowing what the situation on the ground looks like in two and a half years. But she repeated her line that "We will have a reasonable, prudent, careful plan" for withdrawal. Edwards, for his part, wants to pull out all combat troops but said he acknowledges that residual forces will have to stay to protect diplomatic and humanitarian workers in the region.
Richardson says "Zero troops!" (Note that without Gravel and Kucinich in the game, this is his chance to really differeniate his stance on this issue.) But Dodd's close on his heels, and he's still holding out hope that his fellow senators will be able to act for change before Bush leaves office. On Woodruff's 2010 deadline, he says "We shouldn't have to wait that long."
From NBC/National Journal's Tricia Miller
DAVENPORT, IA -- Edwards knows his audience. The audience was pleased with his loud support for labor unions. (Labor powerhouse SEIU is part of the Divided We Fail coalition that organized tonight's forum. There are likely a lot of members in tonight's audience. And they haven't endorsed yet.)
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Responding to a question on home care givers, Biden received loud applause for saying "we should be able to compensate them in the same way we compensate people for taking care of a child," comparing taking care of an aging parent to taking care of a foster child.
Richardson, mid-answer, had to stop to wave his hand in front of his face. A fly was bothering him. (This from the guy who's started playing Carlos Santana's "Smooth" as his entry music.)
Chris Dodd's got to be thankful that another candidate had a bug incident. The bug in his hair during the last ABC Democratic debate found its way onto Youtube.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- One of the biggest applause lines so far tonight goes to Clinton, who invoked her (popular) husband's presidential policies and the (unpopular) Iraq war in the same sentence. "Let's get back to doing what was working in the nineties," she said. "Stop taking money from the Social Security fund for tax cuts and funding the war in Iraq."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT , IA -- Here's a pair we haven't seen duking it out before. First, Richardson invoked his executive experience as governor: "I'm the only one here who's dealt with health care directly" as governor of New Mexico.
Biden disagreed, saying that Richardson translating his gubernatorial experience into White House cred would be like a highschool halfback taking his game to the pros. But he added that he means no disrespect. "He's a great governor. He'd make a great Secretary of State!" (He's poking fun at himself here, too -- he pointed out that the press widely speculates that he's angling to be Clinton's Condi.)
Did Richardson seem a tad bit hurt when he responded? "You seem to be denigrating experience, here, Joe. It's one of your biggest assets."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Dodd's not happy with Clinton's focus on what she learned from the failure of her health care plan twelve years ago. He says "it's not enough to talk about what's been tried and failed." (He said the same in an interview with the Associated Press earlier today, when he fired hard at the way Clinton is framing that past experience. He told the AP, "it should be far more than a parable of personal growth and maturation ... It was mismanaged terribly at the time.")
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- She earned a chuckle by launching into her response to Edwards with "Well, been there, done that," harkening back to her failed mid-nineties fight as First Lady for universal health care. "It was kind of lonely back then." Ouch.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Edwards pointed out that he was the first Democratic candidate to put forward his health care plan. (Clinton, who rolled out the last phase of her proposal here in Iowa on Monday, was the last.) "I'm glad to see others speaking out on this issue now."
Minutes later, Woodruff asked him to critique Clinton's policy. He said it's "a good plan," and noted its similarities with his own. Grinning, he added, "It's actually a lot like my plan, so it's hard to criticize it."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Edwards just took his first implicit shot at Clinton, whose health care plan he's slammed for giving too much wiggle room to insurance companies. He says that lobbyists and insurers "stand between Americans and the health care they need ... We desperately need a president who's actually willing to stand up to them."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA --The first question to Richardson -- on Medicare. He managed to work his Iraq policy into his answer right out of the gate. He compared the cost of treating cancer to the cost of the war, and he says he'll use the money currently spent on the war to cover health care costs at home after he ends the conflict.
From NBC/National Journal's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- I'm here in Davenport's Adler Theater ready to liveblog tonight's Democratic forum, sponsored by AARP and Iowa Public Television. The forum is organized via the Divided We Fail voter education effort -- a coalition of AARP, labor giant SEIU, and business organizations. Tonight's moderator will be PBS's Judy Woodruff, and questions will focus on the issues that most affect AARP's members -- such as health care, financial security, home ownership, and pensions.
When we arrived in Davenport this afternoon, the always-present sign wars were well underway. Across the street from the theater entrance, a forest of satellite truck masts and tall candidate signs had sprung up, and the Clinton, Edwards, and Biden campaigns were out in force. Representation from those three campaigns - in the form of sign-lofting chant-singing supporters - was pretty equal (slight advantage: Clinton) but the Dodd and Richardson camps were represented only by a handful of signs posted in the grass.
Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson will all be present here tonight, but one big story going into the forum is the absence of one of the race's frontrunners. Sen. Barack Obama declined the invitation, citing the campaign's new policy - announced in August - to restrict most forum and debate participation to events sanctioned by the DNC.
Stay tuned... We're almost underway.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Obama's presidential campaign gives First Read this statement from Obama about not voting today on the Senate measure condemning the MoveOn.org print ad criticizing Gen. David Petraeus.
"The focus of the United States Senate should be on ending this war, not on criticizing newspaper advertisements," Obama says. "This amendment was a stunt designed only to score cheap political points while what we should be doing is focusing on the deadly serious challenge we face in Iraq. It's precisely this kind of political game-playing that makes most Americans cynical about Washington's ability to solve America's problems. By not casting a vote, I registered my protest against this empty politics. I registered my views on the ad itself the day it appeared.
Obama goes on to say, "All of us respect the service of General Petraeus and all of our brave men and women in uniform. The way to honor that service is to give them a mission that is responsible, not to vote on amendments like the Cornyn amendment while we continue to pursue the wrong policy in Iraq."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Democrats fell well short of the 60 votes needed to pass the Democrats' strongest measure for troops withdrawal. The amendment offered by Russ Feingold (D) failed by a vote of 28-70.
The Feingold amendment would have forced the president to redeploy most troops out of Iraq by July 2008. And it also would have cut funding for the war -- except fpr the the remaining troops used for going after al Qaeda, protecting US infrastructure/personnel, and training Iraqi forces.
No Republicans supported the measure. More than half the Democratic caucus did, including presidential candidates Clinton, Dodd, and Obama. (Biden is in Iowa)
The other Democrats supporting it were... Akaka (HI), Boxer (CA), Brown (OH), Byrd (WV), Cardin (MD), Durbin (IL), Feingold (WI), Feinstein (CA), Harkin (IA), Inouye (HI), Kennedy (MA), Kerry (MA), Klobuchar (MN), Kohl (WI), Lautenberg (NJ), Leahy (VT), Menendez (NJ), Murray (WA), Reid (NV), Rockefeller (WV), Sanders (VT), Schumer (NY), Stabenow (MI), Whitehouse (RI), and Wyden (OR).
From NBC’s Abby Livingston
Asked about the Jena Six case today on his way into a San Antonio fundraiser, Thompson said, "I don't know anything about it."
Also, Thompson revealed that he is a descendant of Davy Crockett’s, the most famous defender of the Alamo, the city’s most famous landmark. "I'm just kind of following the path of my ancestor, Davy Crockett from Lawrence County, Tennessee,” Thompson said. “I hope I don't have to stay forever like he did, but I'm sure enjoying the time I got here. "
Apparently in June, Thompson confused Daniel Boone for Davy Crockett on his Web site.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
A nonbinding resolution repudiating a MoveOn print ad passed the Senate with 22 Democrats joining all Republican senators. Most of the those Democrats represent so-called "red" or "purple" states. The final vote was 72-25.
Democrats voting yes for the GOP-backed measure were Baucus (MT), Bayh (IN), Cardin (MD), Carper (DE), Casey (PA), Conrad (ND), Dorgan (ND), Feinstein (CA), Johnson (SD), Klobuchar (MN), Kohl (WI), Landrieu (LA), Leahy (VT), Lincoln (AR), McCaskill (MO), Mikulski (MD), Nelson (NE), Nelson (FL), Pryor (AR), Salazar (CO), Tester (MT), and Webb (VA).
A softer resolution that Democrats offered failed to muster the 60 votes required for passage. That bill condemned all personal attacks against military personnel, but didn't identify MoveOn by name. That vote was 51-46.
Presidential votes:
-- Clinton voted for Dem bill, against the GOP bill
-- Obama voted for Dem bill, was a no-show on the GOP bill
-- Biden was in Iowa and did not vote on either bill
-- Dodd voted for Dem bill, against the GOP bill
-- McCain and Brownback voted for the GOP bill, against the Dem bill
From NBC/National Journal's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Here is
Thompson campaign spokeswoman Karen Hanretty's response to evangelical leader
James Dobson's critical remarks about Thompson: "Fred has a 100% pro-life voting record and believes strongly in returning authority to the levels of government closest to families and communities and protecting states from further intrusion by the federal government and activist judges. We're confident that as voters get to know Fred, they'll appreciate his conservative principles and that he is the one conservative in this race who can win the nomination and go on to defeat the Democratic nominee."
ON THE TRAIL: A look at what’s happening out on the campaign trail from our NBC/National Journal campaign embeds.
Here’s some news from the Clinton, Obama and Romney camps:
OBAMA: NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan reports that late last night the Obama campaign canceled a town hall in Rock Hill, S.C., where 1,600 people had tickets because of a Senate Iraq vote today. He had planned to hold a private meeting with local Democratic party officials in a state where half of the Democratic voting populace is black. Obama spokesman Kevin Griffis said, "This is not something a campaign ever wants to do ... These [Iraq] votes sometimes are even more important than the campaign."
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The Rock Hill event could have allowed Obama to clear the air on the issue of the Jena Six. He was criticized by Jesse Jackson, an Obama supporter, for not speaking out strongly enough about the case. Jackson later said he was misquoted. "Barack Obama has said more in support of the Jena Six than any of the other candidates in the race," said Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL), an Obama supporter, who added that he was giving Jackson the benefit of the doubt on his Obama comments.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
The Senate will take a vote on a nonbinding measure today to repudiate the MoveOn ad that ran in The New York Times calling General Petraeus "General Betray Us." By Republicans calling for this vote, it forces Democrats to disavow it.
This "sense of the senate" measure "strongly condemns any effort to attack the honor and integrity of General Petraeus and all the member of the United States Armed Forces; and to specifically repudiate the unwarranted personal attack on General Petraeus by the liberal activist group Moveon.org." Republicans have been attacking Democrats about this ad since it appeared in the paper, trying to tie them to the liberal group. Some Democrats (including
John Kerry and
Jack Reed) have publicly distanced themselves from the ad, saying it was over the top.
GOP Sen. John Cornyn introduced this measure last week, but the vote on it comes on the same day that President Bush called MoveOn's Petraeus ad "disgusting."
“What’s disgusting is that the President has more interest in political attacks than developing an exit strategy to get our troops out of Iraq and end this awful war," MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser responded in a statement.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here is the take from
CBN's David Brody: "So for those scoring at home, let's keep track shall we? Dr. Dobson says no to
Thompson, no to
Giuliani, no to
McCain. Who does that leave? Oh, wait… who's raising their hand and jumping up and down in the back of the room? Hey, that's
Mitt Romney! He says 'what about me?' It may be very hard for Dr. Dobson to come out and support Romney because many of his devoted listeners have a problem with Mormonism... Now, as for
Huckabee, that's a possibility but can he win and is he only thought of as VP material?"
More from Brody: "While Dobson is getting the headlines this morning, the more interesting issue is just who will religious conservatives vote for in 2008? There is no clear cut choice. The top four all have issues. I wouldn't be surprised for voting in this block to splinter so much to where you won't have any one candidate getting the bulk of the vote. If that becomes the case, Rudy Giuliani is sitting pretty."
From WNBC's Jonathan Dienst and NBC's Mark Murray
Federal prosecutors in New York are expected to announce criminal charges against Democratic fundraiser
Norman Hsu later today, sources tell
WNBC.com. Hsu is expected to be charged with orchestrating a $60 million "Ponzi Scheme" and engaging in widespread campaign finance violations. Hsu has been a key Democratic Party fundraiser in recent years donating large amounts including to the campaign of
Hillary Clinton.
There is other Hsu news today... The Los Angeles Times reports that Hsu "waived extradition in a Colorado courthouse and was expected to be returned to California as early as" today.
And the Washington Post writes, "Last night, a group of New York investors who entrusted Hsu with more than $40 million, believing they were financing a clothing venture, filed a lawsuit alleging that he cheated them out of their money."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
President Bush and outgoing Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns may have opened themselves up to criticism for using the Rose Garden today to -- in effect -- launch a Senate campaign.
The president explained that Johanns came to see him a few days ago to seek his advice on running for office from his home state of Nebraska, where Johanns had previously served as governor. The president warmly endorsed Johanns for the Senate seat being vacated by frequent Bush critic,
Chuck Hagel (R). The president added the caveat, "if its Nebraska's choice." Did the president jump ahead of a Republican primary process to promote a Senate race party nominee?
Also, Johanns was able to use the president's podium to give his farewell remarks, which notably included effusive praise for his home state -- that one might see as a Senate race message more than an outgoing cabinet member's typical remarks.
From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
For a Republican up for re-election in 2008, Wednesday’s vote on the Leahy-Specter amendment -- habeas corpus for Guantanamo detainees -- wasn’t an easy one. Six GOP senators (including two up for re-election, Sununu of N.H. and Smith of Oregon), ended up voting to end debate and move the amendment forward.
We saw Sen. Lindsey Graham, R- S.C., on the floor during the roll call vote in animated discussion with three GOP senators who sometimes part company with the Bush administration: Sens. Susan Collins & Olympia Snowe of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. All three voted “no” on the procedural vote.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Rudy’s Two Big Weeks: For a second week in a row, it appears that Giuliani is well on his way of "owning" the week as far as the GOP primary is concerned. Last week, he used the MoveOn ad as a way to steal Petraeus week from McCain (politically, of course). And this week's trip to London -- which he’ll likely talk about at a press avail in Reston, VA today -- is giving Giuliani an opportunity to look "presidential." But the big event for Giuliani comes tomorrow when he addresses the NRA. If he is able to convince them that he won't be an enemy, he just might get over the final conservative hurdle. There's NO chance he'll get the NRA's endorsement -- but if he can simply keep the group on the sidelines during the primary, he can claim a mini victory.
***
Does This Help Rudy Even More? The AP gets its hands on a private email from Focus on the Family’s James Dobson, in which the evangelical leader demonstrates that he’s no fan of Fred Thompson. "Isn't Thompson the candidate who is opposed to a Constitutional amendment to protect marriage, believes there should be 50 different definitions of marriage in the U.S., favors McCain-Feingold, won't talk at all about what he believes, and can't speak his way out of a paper bag on the campaign trail?" Dobson says in the email. "He has no passion, no zeal, and no apparent 'want to.' And yet he is apparently the Great Hope that burns in the breasts of many conservative Christians? Well, not for me, my brothers. Not for me!" Is this a sign that the evangelical community isn’t crazy about any of the GOP front-runners?
*** Waiting For Andy Stern: The news out of the SEIU yesterday -- that its endorsement comes down to Clinton, Edwards, and Obama -- was probably bad news for one candidate more than any other: Edwards. The fact that he didn't get the endorsement the "normal" way, and the fact that the union is also considering the two Dem candidates doing better in the national polls than Edwards is means that the former North Carolina senator has an extra hurdle to pass in picking up the unions much-coveted endorsement. That said, the SEIU’s decision to also strongly consider Clinton and Obama isn’t surprising given the union’s power bases in Illinois and New York. And at the end of the day, isn’t it more important whom the SEIU endorses? Not when?
***
Return To Sender: The Wall Street Journal writes about another possible bundler problem for the Clinton campaign. The bundler in question allegedly reimbursed a couple that each gave Clinton the max of $4,600. And, according to the paper, the Clinton announced it would return the combined $9,200. It’s no Norman Hsu story. But look how quickly the Clinton campaign was with returning the money…
*** Forum Time: Five Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Chris Dodd, Edwards, and Richardson -- participate tonight at a forum in Davenport, IA on (for the most part) health care and retirement security issues. It’s sponsored by AARP and Iowa Public Television and moderated by PBS’s Judy Woodruff. There are three absences: Obama, whose campaign has announced it won’t attend most non-DNC sanctioned debates and forums, and Gravel and Kucinich, who didn’t meet the organizers’ requirements to have active campaigns in Iowa. Organizers aren’t too pleased that Obama isn’t attending. "It's really an opportunity for him to talk about these issues," he said. "We're really disappointed he's not going to be there," Bruce Koeppl, campaign manager of the AARP-backed voter outreach effort that is spearheading the forum, tells NBC/National Journal’s Carrie Dann. Is Obama’s absence a boon to Clinton? After all, if there is a profile of the most likely caucus-goer in Iowa, that person just might be a member of the AARP. Some 68,000 Iowa AARP members have previously caucused.
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***
What’s Cooler -- The AARP Or The “Human Highlight Film”? Instead of participating at the AARP forum, Obama hits an event in Atlanta with former NBA star Dominique Wilkins and performing artist Usher. (Yeah!) This comes less than a week after Clinton attended a fundraiser featuring another NBA star, Magic Johnson.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden campaigns in Iowa before the AARP forum; Brownback stumps in South Carolina; Giuliani travels back across the pond to hold a press avail in Reston, VA; Huckabee is in South Carolina; McCain hits a fundraiser in Northern Virginia; Paul hosts a tugboat ride and dinner in Michigan; and Thompson, in Dallas, holds a press conference on Iran.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 30 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 47 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 58 days
Countdown to Iowa: 116 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 121 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 138 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 411 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 488 days
Per NBC/National Journal’s Carrie Dann, PBS’s Judy Woodruff moderates tonight’s forum, which takes place in Davenport, IA at 8:00 pm ET. Woodruff will present questions submitted by AARP members with a focus on issues that matter to seniors -- especially health care and financial security. "This will really be the first time that candidates will really have a chance to talk about these issues in depth," says Bruce Koeppl, campaign manager for the "Divided We Fail" voter outreach effort, a partnership among the AARP, SEIU, and the Business Roundtable that are spearheading the forum. "Candidates will really have an opportunity to get beyond the sound bites."
Health care promises to be a big issue at the forum, given Clinton's policy address this week on the issue. But another prominent story, Dann says, will be who is NOT going to be there. Obama declined AARP's invitation as a result of his campaign's blanket policy -- announced in August -- to bypass the majority of forums not sanctioned by the DNC.
CONTINUED >>
Strategists and advisers from the Clinton, Obama, and Edwards campaigns will meet with leaders of the SEIU this Monday in Chicago to discuss their strategies for winning in next November. That will guide, in part, whom the 1.9-million member union will endorse. “We think these three candidates clearly stand on the issues that are important to us,” said SEIU president Andy Stern on a conference call with reporters yesterday. “And now our leaders are interested in who is going to win.”
Stern gave a preview of what he will want the candidates to explain: for Clinton, how she will overcome her negatives; for Edwards, to flesh out how coming from the South will translate into electoral votes; and for Obama, why he believes he can compete in many different states.
: Newsday writes about Clinton’s guest appearance on Al Sharpton’s radio show yesterday. Earlier in the day, The State newspaper (Columbia, SC) reported that Rev. Jesse Jackson had criticized her rival Sen. Barack Obama, saying he had not responded strongly enough on behalf of six teenagers facing serious charges for a racial incident at a high school. “As word of Jackson's remarks spread Wednesday morning, Sen. Hillary Clinton appeared on … Sharpton's radio show, saying she was ‘very worried about what has happened.’ But she also said she couldn't condone the beating of a white student by six black classmates, even if the black students believed they had been wronged. The black students were charged with attempted murder, although some of the charges were reduced after the negative publicity,” the paper reported.
CONTINUED >>
The leading GOP candidates all issued statements yesterday on the news that Iranian President Ahmadinejad wants to visit Ground Zero (the request was later turned down). Giuliani said, “Assisting Ahmadinejad in touring Ground Zero -- hallowed ground for all Americans -- is outrageous." Romney added, “It's inconceivable that any consideration would be given to the idea of entertaining the leader of a state sponsor of terror at Ground Zero… Instead of entertaining Ahmadinejad, we should be indicting him." And Thompson will likely address the issue when holds a press avail on Iran in Dallas.
Clinton was the lone Democratic candidate to issue a statement. She said, “It is unacceptable for Iranian President Ahmadinejad, who refuses to renounce and end his own country’s support of terrorism, to visit the site of the deadliest terrorist attack on American soil in our nation’s history."
GINGRICH: The potential candidate-to-be (who is meeting with reporters this morning to talk up his presidential ambitions) gets the David Broder treatment this morning. Yet another sign Newt's inching closer?
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post: “Senate Republicans yesterday rejected a bipartisan proposal to lengthen the home leaves of U.S. troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, derailing a measure that war opponents viewed as one of the best chances to force President Bush to accelerate a redeployment of forces. The proposal, sponsored by Sens. James Webb (D-Va.) and Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), failed on a 56 to 44 vote, with 60 votes needed for passage -- a tally that was virtually identical to a previous vote in July.”
All the Dem senators running for president (Biden, Clinton, Dodd, and Obama) voted for the measure; the GOPers (Brownback and McCain) voted against it.
The New York Times: “Supporters of Mr. Bush’s war strategy declared victory, saying they had firmly beaten back legislative efforts to change course. ‘It means that Congress will not intervene in the foreseeable future,’ said Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, the Independent who has voted with the Republicans on war issues. ‘The fact that it didn’t get enough votes says that Congress doesn’t have the votes to stop this strategy of success from going forward.’”
CONTINUED >>
Per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, President Bush will discuss the departure of Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns at 9:30 am ET. Johanns, the former governor of Nebraska, is leaving to run for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R). “Mr. Johanns would be the fourth Republican candidate in the field. While Nebraska is heavily Republican, the Senate vacancy is creating a
potential opportunity for Democrats, who are trying to recruit Bob Kerrey, a former senator from Nebraska who is president of New School University in New York City, to run.”
Also, O’Donnell reports that Bush will hold a press conference today in the the Brady Press Briefing Room at 10:45 am ET. His last press conference was August 9th.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Elissa Davis
Although the Obesity Society invited all of the Democratic and Republican candidates to their obesity conference, only
Richardson accepted. Unlike at some appearances earlier this week, Richardson was a hit in front of about 50 researchers, clinicians, and George Washington Public Health professors. Several people in the crowd praised Richardson on a good performance and for "addressing the issue directly." They particularly applauded Richardson for saying obesity is a disease and not a behavior.
Richardson called for federal protection under the Equal Employment Opportunity Act and an amendment to the American Disability Act to prevent discrimination against obese individuals. Richardson did say there must be national security exceptions for industries like the police and fire departments.
As governor, Richardson banned all junk food in schools via an executive order and made physical education mandatory. Today, he said the key is to "shift focus from the end game to pre-game -- that's called prevention." On the campaign trail, Richardson works out every day, telling reporters "you have to practice what you preach." He has lost 30 pounds in the last year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama leads all presidential candidates so far in money raised from Americans living overseas, according to a report to be released tomorrow by the Center for Responsive Politics and shared with First Read. Obama raised $194,000 through the first two quarters; Giuliani, who attended a fund-raiser today in London, is second with $120,000; Clinton comes in third at $51,000; Romney fourth at $44,000; then Edwards ($23,000); McCain ($11,000) and Richardson ($10,000).
Money raised overseas is on the rise as candidates search for new ways to fund the ever-skyrocketing costs of their campaigns. Through just the first two quarters, the total raised is $473,000 -- almost the entire total for the 2000 election, and with 14 months (five fundraising quarters) left until Election Day 2008, on pace to shatter 2004’s $908,000 total.
*** UPDATE *** Here's the center's report.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
In a video released this morning on his campaign's Web site, Fred
Thompson became the last top-tier Republican presidential candidate to comment on Hillary
Clinton's healthcare policy announced earlier this week. Thompson's response specifically addressed a quote by Sen. Clinton given to the Associated Press in which she said, "she could envision a day when 'you have to show proof to your employer that you're insured as a part of the job interview -- like when your kid goes to school and has to show proof of vaccination,' but said such details would be worked out through negotiations with Congress."
Although Thompson has yet to come out with a health care plan of his own, he has spoken about the issue during several campaign stops, and his idea of reform is surprisingly inline with Clinton's statement.
On Sept. 7 in Sioux City, IA, Thompson said, "I think we need to divorce the complete dependency so many people have on employment for their insurance. Let them get out in an open marketplace, create a bigger open marketplace where people can buy insurance from all over the country, which is restricted now in many respects."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Libby Leist
The US and Iraq have agreed to establish a joint commission to examine the Blackwater USA incident in Baghdad last weekend, and to suggest improvements in security and safety procedures followed by security contractors guarding US diplomats in Iraq, the State Department announced this afternoon.
The joint commission will not be investigating the incident, however, spokesman Tom Casey said. Instead, the members will try to come to an agreement on what happened based on the findings of separate investigations conducted by Iraqi and US law enforcement officials. Casey was confident an understanding could be reached despite the widely varying accounts of the incident.
A senior state department official added, "The purpose of this is not to do on-the-ground investigating or forensics. The purpose of this is to make policy recommendations… Part of that means they have to understand this incident and understand what happened and have some common basis for doing that."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama, in a new
one-minute TV ad in Iowa, criticizes “cynics in Washington” who “roll their eyes” when he speaks of hope. He says they “don't believe we can actually change politics and bring an end to decades of division and deadlock.”
“My experience tells me something very different,” says Obama, dressed in a dark suit and speaking directly into the camera while walking inside of a home.
He goes on to take some subtle shots at Clinton, as he touts his ability to bring “Democrats and Republicans together,” says he has “taken on the drug and insurance companies and won” and “defied the politics of the moment, and opposed the war in Iraq before it began.”
The ad, entitled “Believe,” is being cycled into the campaign’s current buy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andy Merten
After speaking with British Prime Minister
Gordon Brown today in London,
Giuliani met with reporters to discuss his first overseas fundraising trip, as well as his take on America’s relationship with the United Kingdom. Asked if overseas fundraising is important to his campaign, the former New York mayor chuckled, then went on to say, “Given the expense of American presidential elections, every fundraising opportunity is important; you’ve got to take advantage of it.”
Giuliani went on to explain that his trip also served another purpose: courting American voters currently living overseas, given the close nature of recent US presidential election results. “This is an audience we want to reach, both for the purpose of fundraising and then, one of these elections, you never know -- if it isn’t the absentee ballots of the out-of-town ballots, the Americans living overseas -- that’ll make the difference.”
The presidential hopeful was also questioned by the British press about the state of the relationship between the UK and Europe as a whole. “The United States and the United Kingdom are connected together by values, by common interests, by language, and they’re also held together by very closer personal relationships between our presidents and your prime ministers,” he answered, citing Tony Blair’s work with Presidents Bush and Clinton -- as well as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan’s joint fight against communism.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
The
Obama campaign just forwarded us a statement from Jesse Jackson, who reiterated his support for Obama, despite being quoted by the Columbia State saying that Obama is "acting like he's white" for not speaking more forcefully regarding the racial incident in Jena, LA.
"I reaffirm my commitment to vote for Sen. Barack Obama," Jackson says in the statement. "He has remarkably transcended race, however the impact of Katrina and Jena makes America's unresolved moral dilemma of race unavoidable. I think Jena is another defining moment of the issue of race and the criminal justice system. This issue requires direct and bold leadership. I commend Sen. Obama for speaking out and demanding fairness on this defining issue. Any attempt to dilute my support for Sen. Obama will not succeed."
From Mark Murray, Aswini Anburajan, and Athena Jones
Tomorrow, thousands of protestors will travel to Jena, LA in support of six African-American students accused of beating a white classmate. That protest -- and the original incident -- today spilled over in the Democratic presidential contest.
That began this morning, when the
Columbia State -- and then
Drudge -- had Jesse Jackson criticizing
Barack Obama for "acting like he's white" for not responding forcefully enough to the Jena case. “If I were a candidate, I’d be all over Jena,” the paper quoted Jackson saying; Jackson has endorsed Obama for president.
"Later," the paper added, "Jackson said he did not recall making the 'acting like he’s white' comment about Obama, stressing he only wanted to point out the candidates had not seized on an opportunity to highlight the disproportionate criminal punishments black youths too often face."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
Ben Cohen, the co-founder of Ben & Jerry's, wants to reduce the size of the Pentagon's budget -- and to accomplish that, he and the business group he heads are trying to influence the Democratic contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Cohen is the president of
Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities, which wants to eliminate about $60 billion per year in defense spending and allocate that money instead to education, children's health care, and energy independence. And his group is spending about $2 million per year to get its message heard in the early nominating states and to impact the election results there. "What if we ... made [the presidential candidates] listen to us?" he tells First Read.
To make them listen, Cohen says Business Leaders for Sensible Priorities now has at least 9,000 Democratic voters in Iowa who have pledged to caucus for the candidate the group endorses in November. In a contest that typically has low voter turnout, he says, 9,000 voters could end up deciding the winner in Iowa.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal's Mike Memoli
-- MANCHESTER, NH -- This reporter interviewed voters here who participated in yesterday's municipal elections. Call it the primary before the primary. And months before these same voters are to cast a ballot in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, many say they are undecided.
An informal, unscientific survey of more than a 100 voters across New Hampshire’s largest city found that nearly three in five had not made a decision at this point. Clinton had a clear edge among Democrats who indicated a preference. Meanwhile, Republicans appear to be most uncertain. “It’s just one of those years where people are going to be undecided right up until the primary,” said Mayor Frank Guinta, a Republican seeking his second term this year. “I, like everybody else, want to meet [the candidates] three, four, or five times before I make a decision, and it’s tough because on both sides of the aisle you have very strong candidates.”
Sixteen of 51 Dems surveyed chose Clinton, with no other candidate getting more than three votes. Twenty five were undecided, including Donna Smith, a voter in Ward 8 who has narrowed her chose to Clinton or Obama. “I think that Hillary has experience, obviously. But I’m not sure if the woman factor is going to be a weakness. As far as Obama goes, before the convention no one knew who he was... But he definitely has that spark.” Betsi Devries, a state senator and Manchester alderman who has endorsed Clinton, said Democrats are motivated regardless of their preference. “I think we have so many excellent Democratic candidates to choose from,” she said.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
***
London calling: Rudy Giuliani today is in London, where he has already met with Tony Blair and Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and raised money (from American ex-pats) at the posh Mandarin Oriental. Later today, he delivers remarks at the Inaugural Margaret Thatcher Atlantic Bridge lecture. His UK fundraiser, in particular, shines a bright light on how all the major presidential candidates are raising money overseas this cycle. "The whole question of cost-effectiveness has been dramatically rewritten because the cost of campaigns is going up so high," Democratic campaign-finance expert Bob Bauer tells Congressional Quarterly. "You wouldn't go [overseas] for small-donor events, but if you can get up to the maximum amount from lawful contributors, that's a source of funds that I doubt any campaign would readily overlook. There's an increasing sense that no stone can be left unturned."
*** And it’s not just Giuliani: Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama are both headed to London later this fall to raise money for their respective spouse's campaigns. Obama even called into a fundraiser on his behalf last June in Beijing. According to experts on fundraising, the only foreign place in years past where campaigns regularly traveled to in order to raise money was Israel, where many dual-citizens live. But with globalization hitting the securities industry -- as well as other businesses -- more Americans are living overseas for two to three years at a time. And they have both disposable income and an interest in politics.
***
Does the GOP have a minority problem? Don’t miss the
Washington Post piece today about the top Republican candidates skipping Tavis Smiley’s African-American forum at Morgan State University in Baltimore and the earlier Univision forum, which has been postponed. And don’t miss this quote from former GOP vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp: “‘We sound like we don't want immigration; we sound like we don't want black people to vote for us," said … Kemp… ‘What are we going to do -- meet in a country club in the suburbs one day? If we're going to be competitive with people of color, we've got to ask them for their vote.’” Newt Gingrich leveled similar criticism in the article. George W. Bush grabbing approximately 40% of the Latino vote was key to him narrowly winning re-election in 2004. Can any of the GOP candidates -- besides McCain -- match that number in 2008? If not, how do they make up for those lost votes?
*** Clinton vs. Edwards and Romney vs. Thompson: As we mentioned yesterday, Edwards went after Clinton for her fundraiser yesterday at a DC law firm. And the Clinton campaign returned the fire. Does Clinton vs. Edwards end up helping Obama? After all, Iowa doesn't like angry campaigns. Or do they? (See Tom Harkin.) Also, check out Romney and Thompson dueling yesterday over the Everglades. Is Thompson really leaving the door open to drilling for oil there? If he were the nominee, he'd seriously be putting Florida in play with talk like that.
*** A Granite State of Mind -- that’s undecided: NBC/National Journal’s Mike Memoli conducted an informal exit poll of more than 100 Manchester voters. The verdict? Clinton has a slight lead among Democrats, but most minds aren’t made up. No frontrunner among actual GOP voters. We’ll have more on Memoli’s dispatch later today…
*** On the trail: Due to Senate votes, Biden has cancelled his campaign stops in Iowa; Clinton holds a conversation, “Hillary Live!” moderated by former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack; Edwards hits a reception in Seattle; Huckabee stumps in South Carolina; McCain and Obama are in DC; Richardson gives a speech at the Obesity Public Policy Conference; Romney speaks in Florida; and Thompson is in Austin, TX.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 31 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 48 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 59 days
Countdown to Iowa: 117 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 122 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 139 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 412 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 489 days
BIDEN: USA Today writes, “The Army has decided to ask for 10,000 Mine Resistant Ambush Protected armored vehicles to counter the threat of makeshift bombs in Iraq, according to one of the program's top congressional supporters. The new request is nearly four times the 2,700 vehicles, known as MRAPs, that the Army had sought. That's still not enough, said Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., who was briefed on the change by the Defense Department. Biden cited a request this year for 17,770 of the vehicles for the Army by Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the No. 2 military commander in Iraq. ‘Until every soldier and Marine has the best protection we can give them, we must keep pushing,’ Biden said.”
CLINTON: The reviews of Clinton's health-care plan continue to roll in. The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein is impressed with plan's attempt to NOT raise the ire of key potential opponents, like the insurance industry. "Clinton's proposal may not have entirely threaded that needle: Opponents will still rally against its cost and the government insurance option. But the plan does show she's thinking creatively about how to break the cycle of partisan polarization that for nearly two decades has doomed every domestic initiative as far-reaching as her second try at ensuring healthcare for all."
CONTINUED >>
Newt Gingrich also told the Washington Post that Republican presidential candidates are making a mistake bypassing forums/debates sponsored by minority groups. “‘For Republicans to consistently refuse to engage in front of an African American or Latino audience is an enormous error,’ said … Gingrich... ‘I hope they will reverse their decision and change their schedules. I see no excuse -- this thing has been planned for months, these candidates have known about it for months. It's just fundamentally wrong. Any of them who give you that scheduling-conflict answer are disingenuous. That's baloney.’”
Gingrich made a similar comment to the
Boston Globe. Also, Smiley says he'll air his event with four empty podiums.
The Politico’s Wilner gets her hands on polling data from the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, which shows that GOP party identification has dropped. “In 2004, according to the firm’s merged polling data … Republicans were at rough parity with Democrats in party ID, trailing them by three percentage points,” Wilner writes. “At this point in 2007, they trail Democrats by seven. Other, nonpartisan national surveys show a similar disinclination to identify with the GOP.” The conclusion: “The party will not be starting the 2008 general election campaign from the same position George W. Bush occupied in either 2000 or 2004 -- races that were both decided at the margins.”
CONTINUED >>
The
Washington Post examines the tough decision some so-called "moderate" Republicans are going to have when it comes to the next round of Iraq policy. Will they stick with Bush or break in order to focus on getting re-elected in 2008?
The
Duke Cunningham scandal continues to haunt congressional Republicans, as well as a few Democrats. In the trial of one of the defense contractors that bribed Cunningham, the defense subpoenaed 13 members of Congress including former Speaker Dennis Hastert. Others called, include: California Republicans John Doolittle, Jerry Lewis, and presidential candidate Duncan Hunter. The other Republicans subpoenaed: Roy Blunt (Mo.), Peter Hoekstra (Mich.), Darrell Issa (Calif.), and Jerry Weller (Ill.). Three Democrats were also on the list: John Murtha (Pa.), Silvestre Reyes (Texas) and Ike Skelton (Mo.).
An interesting decision by the White House to put Cheney out -- via
Wall Street Journal op-ed -- to pushback on Alan Greenspan's book. “In his new book, ‘The Age of Turbulence,’ my longtime friend Alan Greenspan argues that President Bush's economic and budget policies have been fiscally irresponsible. I've known and admired Alan for years, and I believe he was a great chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. But I think his assessment is off the mark.”
From NBC's Andy Merten and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
A day after calling for greater transparency on Wall Street, Obama focused on middle-class tax relief while speaking today to an intimate gathering of about 100 guests in a hotel conference room in DC.
Beginning the speech by telling the story of his father-in-law, who was able to support his family despite the burdens of overt racism and the obstacle of suffering from multiple sclerosis, Obama spoke of a “basic social compact” that says, “If you work hard, your work will be rewarded.” He continued by lamenting, “That social compact is starting to crumble and erode... This isn’t the invisible hand of the market at work. It’s the successful work of special interests.”
The Illinois senator’s plan to “relieve the burden of the middle class” includes four points: 1) an income tax cut of $500 per person (or $1,000 per working family) for 150 million Americans; 2) a universal mortgage interest credit of 10% for homeowners who make under $50,000 a year; 3) the elimination of income tax for retirees making less than $50,000 a year; and 4) simplifying the process of filing a tax return.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Edwards adviser Joe Trippi sent this email today: "If you want to know why we need change in Washington -- and I mean real change, not just trading corporate Republican insiders with corporate Democratic insiders -- then just look at
Senator Clinton's schedule for today. Today at noon, Hillary Clinton will be hosting a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. for a select group of lobbyists with an interest in homeland security."
More from Trippi: "Tickets for the Clinton fundraiser are $1,000 a ticket and $25,000 per bundler. And for that money you get more than a meal -- you get to attend one-hour breakout sessions in four different areas of homeland security that will include House Committee Chairs and members of Congress who sit on the very committees that will be voting on homeland security legislation."
Click here to read the invite to the Clinton fundraiser (pdf).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
We got our hands on the
invitation to Giuliani’s London fundraiser, and here are some of the numbers:
-$10,000: Roundtable for hosts who raise this amount
-$2,300: Per person photo opportunity and lunch
-$1,000: Per person lunch
From NBC/National Journal's Tricia Miller
CHICAGO -- Richardson took the stage at the Laborers' convention in Chicago this morning to the sound of Carlos Santana’s “Smooth.” He delivered his first line in Spanish and -- unlike yesterday -- correctly identified the union he was addressing.
“We’re all here to ask for your endorsement,” he told the union leaders, adding that those who addressed the convention the day before -- Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Joe Biden -- were “great candidates” who could all serve in the White House as his vice president. He asked them to vote for someone who could be elected and noted that he was climbing in polls in early primary states.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** A clean bill of health: Clinton’s health-care rollout could not have gone better for the campaign: A national poll underscores Democratic primary voters' confidence in Clinton to pass a health-care plan, and her plan even gets a positive review from a conservative columnist like David Brooks. Perhaps most important for the campaign, as others have pointed out, her plan blurs (for the most part) any differences between the Edwards and Obama plans. Of course, those rivals -- as they did yesterday -- will hark back to the past to differentiate themselves with Clinton on this issue. But, lo and behold, here comes Clinton breaking from the past: On TODAY this morning, Matt Lauer asked her if her health-care plan would have been one that she would have rejected in 1993 when she pushed the issue then. That’s “absolutely the case,” she replied. Today, the campaign begins airing a new TV ad in Iowa and New Hampshire on -- guess what? -- health care, as well as hosting a live webcast on the plan.
 |
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VIDEO: Hillary Clinton discusses her health care plan on TODAY.***
Is the GOP licking its chops? But on a day when her focus was health care, did Clinton make a statement that could come back to haunt her, especially if she's the Democratic nominee? Speaking to the SEIU yesterday, Clinton made a promise to the anti-war crowd that she may or may not be able to keep, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum reports. "I have voted against funding this war and I will vote against funding this war as long as it takes," she said. Doesn't this invite a Mitch McConnell to do whatever he can to get bills on to the Senate floor that force her (like what happened to John Kerry) to be in the minority on various troop-funding (read: "support the troops") measures? Earlier this year, Clinton -- along with Obama and Dodd -- voted against an Iraq supplemental because it didn’t contain a timetable for withdrawal.
*** Barack backing away? We encourage you to watch yesterday’s entire Brian Williams-Barack Obama interview. A few key takeaways: Obama seems to be tacitly acknowledging that his "turn the page" message is not resonating with Democratic primary voters (note his comment about Bill Clinton's popularity with Dems). Also, don’t miss Obama conceding that a Norman Hsu-like problem is systemic to fundraising -- not to a particular candidate. Finally, an overall observation from the interview as a whole: Obama seemed to take pains not to point out contrast with Clinton. Is he just that uncomfortable with getting down and dirty? And while some independents may see that as a badge of honor, do those candidates win primaries?
*** Minority Report: With GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad yesterday becoming the seventh Republican congressman to announce his retirement -- and with more possibly on the way -- the question no longer seems to be: Will Democrats hold onto control of the House after 2008? Rather, it’s: How big will the Dem majority be? The same is true of the Senate, where four Republicans (including Craig) have announced they will retire, and Democrats have recruited some impressive candidates (Mark Warner, Jeanne Shaheen, and maybe Bob Kerrey). Given this situation, does that produce -- as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook put it earlier this year -- a vicious cycle for Republicans? That a poor political environment produces retirements and poor fundraising and recruitment, which then produces even more retirements and even poorer fundraising and recruitment. Is the goal for congressional Republicans now to keep down the Dem gains as much as possible and shoot for 2010?
*** On the trail: Clinton hosts a “New York Farm Day” event on Capitol Hill; Obama, in DC, unveils his middle-class tax relief plan and then hits small-dollar fundraiser/rally; McCain raises money in DC; Richardson, in Chicago, takes his turn speaking to the Laborers and then fundraises in DC; and Romney campaigns in Florida.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 32 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 49 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 60 days
Countdown to Iowa: 118 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 123 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 140 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 413 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 490 days
"Clinton's campaign, aware of the inevitable attacks, planned a careful rollout of its health-care proposal,” the Washington Post writes. “Rather than giving a single speech on health care, she gave two addresses earlier this year on improving health-care quality and reducing costs. Her aides argued that it was particularly important for Clinton to show that her approach to reforming health care would be different this time around and focused on rebutting charges that her plan was not like the 1993 proposal… Clinton's campaign dubbed the new proposal the American Health Choices Plan, and the candidate used the words ‘choice’ and or ‘choose’ more than a dozen times in her 45-minute address.”
VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd offers his first take on GOP reaction to what they call "Hillarycare", plus Barack Obama on Clinton and more.BTW, for all the hand-wringing by the chattering class (including us) about whether health care is a double-edged sword for her, a
CBS News poll finds: "Sixty-one percent of those who plan to vote in a Democratic primary express confidence in Clinton’s ability to make the right decisions about health care. Forty-two percent say they have confidence in Obama, while 39 percent say they have confidence in Edwards… Registered voters see Clinton's experience with a failed health care proposal as an asset rather than a liability. Sixty-six percent of all voters, and 77 percent on Democratic primary voters, say her past experience will help her to reform health care if she becomes president."
But forget the poll, this positive review from the New York Times’ David Brooks is probably the campaign's favorite clip today. "Hillary Clinton’s health care plan is a huge step forward from 1993. It’s better than the G.O.P. candidates’ plans (which don’t exist). But there are still complexities in the health care system that no loya jirga, no matter how smart, can fully anticipate and control."
CONTINUED >>
CBN's David Brody has extensive coverage of last night's values voter debate which was notable for who wasn't there: all of the major GOP candidates. "All of them had the dreaded “scheduling conflict.” Let’s be honest. They weren’t there because they didn’t want to be on the hot seat. And boy, let me tell ya’…they would have been on that hot seat multiple times.
The candidates were asked to talk more about their personal relationship with God. If the ‘Fab 4’ had shown up, who would have taken that one first? You think Mitt Romney wants to get specific in front of a predominately evangelical Christian audience? Giuliani, Thompson and McCain are reluctant to talk about their faith so that’s a non-starter. Instead, you had Mike Huckabee coming up with this line: “The greatest thing in my life was coming to know Jesus Christ.” Cha-ching! ... Oh by the way, did I tell you who was there? Besides the regulars like Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Paul and Tancredo, there were two others. John Cox (no not Wally Cox or Courtney Cox) showed up. Who’s John Cox you ask? He’s the guy running for President who has less than 1% support so he wasn’t invited to previous debates. But he had podium space last night. And then there was Alan Keyes. Yes, that Alan Keyes."
GIULIANI: It is going to be harder and harder for Giuliani's primary foes to make the case that the former New York City mayor is some "Republican-come-lately," when the current president appoints folks to his administration that have worked with the mayor for over 20 years.
CONTINUED >>
Democrats “brandished their labor credentials and tried to outdo one another with political promises as they competed for the support of two powerful labor unions,” the SEIU (Service Employees International Union) and LIUNA (Labor International Union of North America). The SEIU may make its endorsement in October.
EDWARDS: Promising to be the "best union president in the history of the United States," Edwards received a warm reception yesterday from SEIU members as he took the stage at the end of the day, NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum reports. Edwards signs flooded the ballroom in the Hilton in Washington DC. An "Edwards" chant broke out seven times during Edwards' speech, with union members jumping to their feet and clapping loudly. At other times, cheers and applause drowned out what Edwards was trying to say.
Edwards did have a quieter moment, though. "All of you know about some of the challenges we faced in my family with Elizabeth," he said, recounting the day he and Elizabeth had to reexamine how they were going to live their lives after her cancer returned. "This is the cause of my life," Edwards continued, explaining why he decided to press on for the nomination. "Standing up for the men and women that you fight for everyday is what my life is about."
CONTINUED >>
The Columbia State continues its must-read series on what makes black South Carolina voters tick. Today, a look at how black voters in this state are far from traditional liberals.
New Hampshire GOP chair Fergus Cullen tells NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli that all is well for the state's first-in-the-nation status. Asked if he worried the uncertainty of the calendar was hurting his state, Cullen replied: "Eight months ago, that was a real concern of mine and a lot of people. But the candidates keep coming. Why do the candidates keep coming? Because they feel they have a level playing field here… While most of them will go home disappointed with the outcome, none of them will go home dissatisfied with the process. And that's critically important. Why is the Nevada caucus not working? On the Democratic side, it's because the establishment has its thumb on the scale for Hillary Clinton over there. So Barack Obama and John Edwards say we can't play here, we don't have a level playing field, so they don’t go. So it's a non-event. And the candidates here know that the establishment doesn't have its thumb on the scale for anyone. Everyone has that equal opportunity."
A new Franklin Pierce College poll has Clinton and Romney leading in New Hampshire.
Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) said the presidential primary process
will slow down Democrats being able to pass meaningful legislation on a troop withdrawal from Iraq. "As soon as the primaries are over, you're going to see Republicans jumping ship,” Murtha said.
The Iraqi government ordered Blackwater USA out of the country for “what the government said was the fatal shooting of eight Iraqi civilians following a car bomb attack against a State Department convoy,” the
New York Daily News writes. The firm protects US diplomats.
The New York Times writes that two Democratic senators warned “that the Judiciary Committee would delay confirmation of President Bush’s choice for attorney general unless the White House turned over documents that the panel was seeking for several investigations… The selection of Mr. Mukasey … seemed to signal that the administration is looking to move past the partisanship that characterized Mr. Gonzales’s tenure. But two Democrats who will have a powerful say over whether Mr. Mukasey gets confirmed — Senators Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont and Charles E. Schumer of New York — vowed on Monday to use the nomination to extract information from a reluctant White House.”
Video:
President Bush names Michael Mukasey as his nominee to be attorney general.
The
Washington Post: “White House officials said they will not give in to such pressure, and they pressed the Senate to approve Mukasey by Oct. 8. ‘No’ was the answer one senior adviser gave when asked whether the White House is willing to tie the nomination to the production of such documents.”
From NBC’s Elissa Davis
In a room filled with health-care workers, Richardson seemingly took little interest in the hot topic. He only briefly mentioned that “every American deserves the human right of health care” toward the conclusion of his 40-minute speech at the SEIU presidential forum in D.C. He did elaborate more on Veterans health care by repeating his call for a Heroes Health Card, “enabling Vets to receive health care anywhere they want,” which was welcomed by loud applause.
Richardson tip-toed around many issues, but spent most of his time on immigration and education. On immigration reform, he said that with him as president, there will be a legalization process that lets “people who can speak English and pass a background check become a citizen.” Switching to education he vowed that he would not “tinker” with No Child Left Behind, but he “will get rid of it; it has to go.”
At the end of his speech, though, as we mentioned earlier, Richardson tripped up when thanking the group in his last line. He exclaimed: "Thank you AFSCME!"
From NBC's Chuck ToddAll of his Republican foes have been anxiously awaiting a chance to debate
Fred Thompson. Well, on Oct. 9th in Dearborn, Mich., they'll get their first shot. Thompson's campaign announced today their October debate schedule. The first one the campaign has committed to attend: the CNBC/MSNBC/Wall Street Journal debate which is being organized in conjunction with the Michigan Republican Party.
The other two October debates Thompson has committed to are in Manchester, N.H., on Oct. 14th (WMUR-ABC) and Orlando, Fla. (Fox News) on Oct. 21st.
While many of the campaigns have privately given a likelihood for attending all three of these October debates, Thompson is the first of the major candidates to publicly commit.
Unlike the Democrats, there is no central organizing group sanctioning the Republican debates so the power is with the frontrunners. One wonders, given the number of Republican debates we know groups are trying to put on the books, if the candidates now wish they had the RNC sanctioning debates. It's not an easy thing for these candidates to have to make enemies with various partisan or media organizations they eventually turn down.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder reports that Richardson closed his speech today in DC with this line: "Thank you AFSCME!"
Unfortunately, he was addressing the SEIU.
For those keeping count, Richardson has already 1) said that Byron "Whizzer" White, who dissented in Roe v. Wade, was his model Supreme Court justice; 2) told Tim Russert on Meet the Press that he's both a Red Sox and Yankees fan; and 3) initially told a gay-rights forum that homosexuality is a choice. Now this...
From NBC's Chuck ToddLater this afternoon, according to House Republican sources, Minnesota Congressman Jim Ramstad will become the latest Republican member of Congress to announce his decision to retire, rather than run for re-election in 2008. Ramstad represents a very competitive district that barely went for Pres. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.
Open seats like this one in Minnesota are what making many analysts assume that it is not a question of "IF" the Democrats hold their House majority in 2008, but by "how much they expand" their majority in 2008. Ramstad is the 7th House Republican to announce he's not seeking re-election. On the Senate side, three Republican senators have announced their retirement and a fourth Republican (Larry Craig) is expected to resign his seat shortly.
So far, just two House Democrats have announced they won't seek reelection in 2008. Both (Tom Allen of Maine and Mark Udall of Colorado) are running for a promotion to the U.S. Senate.
From NBC’s Andy Merten and Mark Murray
Chatting with reporters today, Dodd leveled criticism towards at Hillary Clinton for using her failed attempt at enacting universal health care in the early 1990s as a platform for touting her experience. “We all have scars to bear for political failure,” he said in response to Clinton's frequent assertion that she is battle-hardened from her past experiences. “But the scars we bear, through political failure, don’t even come close to the scars worn by people who have no health care coverage today because the system didn’t work.”
“I don’t think it’s enough to sort of discount what happened 15 years ago as having borne political scares because of failure,” Dodd continued. “We’re paying an awful price today because we didn’t get it done.” He went on to tout his own record of bipartisan coalition building in passing the Family/Medical Leave Act. And he said this about Clinton's prior experience with health care: “What happened was a failure to bring people together to get the job done.”
Also, Richardson chimed in with this release: "Health care affects the people of this country more directly than any other issue in this campaign, and I am pleased that Senator Clinton finally has joined the debate. I also am proud to see that she supports most of the initiatives I have outlined in my comprehensive proposal, which is the most effective and responsible way to make sure that every American has the best possible coverage."
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroObama took shots at
Clinton -- on the day she laid out her health-care plan -- saying at the SEIU presidential forum in D.C that his plan would pass by the end of his first term, not “defeated” like “in 1994.” He also said he was right on the Iraq war and took the position of being against the war in 2002 when it wasn’t “convenient.”
He railed against the Washington establishment and defended his experience, talking up his work as a community activist, civil rights lawyer and constitutional law professor. He added that what he realized was that politics is considered a “game” by insiders. “It’s not about who plays the game the best,” Obama said, adding later, “I know I have the experience Washington needs right now. Hope and change are the story of my life. Hope and change are the story of this country.”
Obama also made a direct appeal for the 1.9 million-member SEIU’s endorsement, saying he wouldn’t be where he is today without their endorsement in 2004. Obama showed his community activism experience, as he has before on the trail, riling up the crowd and pledging again to walk the picket lines if elected president.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Iraq debate returns to the Senate today, as the chamber takes up a defense policy bill. But votes on the controversial amendments that seek to change the current mission in Iraq -- and to withdraw significantly more troops than President Bush announced -- aren't expected until Thursday at the earliest, leadership aides say. (Until then, the chamber is expected debate and possibly vote on other measures, like closing Guantanamo and allowing enemy combatants to contest their detentions.)
At this point, the amount and specific language of the Iraq amendments are unclear. Those measures are expected to range from the far left, (a bill forcing most troop withdrawal by cutting off funding), to the far right (a nonbinding measure supporting the president's plan). But most attention will be focused on those dozen or so skeptical Republicans in the middle, who could give Democrats the 60 votes needed to overcome any filibusters.
Still, the only way the Senate can really begin to force the president's hand is for a bill to garner at least 67 votes, making it veto-proof. The Administration has lobbed veto threats for anything that goes beyond the current plan. And getting a veto-proof majority in the Senate -- not the mention the House -- appears highly unlikely for now.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
CHICAGO -- About an hour before Clinton unveiled her health-care plan in Des Moines, Edwards talked about his own plan -- and Clinton's -- while addressing the Laborers International Union of North America.
He emphasized that the Clinton plan is similar to the proposal he released in February. “If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery,” he said, “well, I’m flattered.” But he charged that Clinton would continue to deal with the lobbyists and drug companies in the “Washington influence game,” which killed the universal health-care plan she sent to Congress in 1993. “I’d like to know what a principled compromise looks like on universal health care,” he said.
Edwards promised the crowd that in his first day in office he would offer legislation that would cut off health insurance coverage for himself, members of Congress, and political appointees on July 20, 2009 -- if universal health-care coverage has not been passed by that time. Following up later, he said that there would be a “great chance” of the bill passing because members of Congress want to get reelected.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and Mark Murray
DES MOINES, IA -- Clinton today announced her plan that would provide health insurance to all Americans, which would allow people to choose their plan and use tax credits to help them pay for it. "Every man, woman, and child should have quality, affordable health care in America," she said. "Ultimately, this is about who we are as a people and what we stand for."
As mentioned earlier today, Clinton's plan mandates coverage for all Americans (similar to mandatory car insurance for drivers). Edwards' plan, which he unveiled in February, contains a mandate; Obama's, which was announced in May, doesn't.
The plan she unveiled today is part of an overall health-care platform that also aims to improve the quality of care people receive and cut costs.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumBefore
Clinton even had the opportunity to unveil her universal health-care plan,
Romney went on the attack. "Version 2.0 is not likely to have any more success than 1.0," he told reporters in New York City. "HillaryCare continues to be bad medicine."
Romney accused Clinton of taking inspiration for her plan from European bureaucracies instead of the American people. "In her plan, we have a government insurance instead of private insurance," Romney said, outlining the differences between her plan and his own. "In her plan, it's crafted by Washington; it should be crafted by the states. In her plan, we have government, Washington-managed health care. Instead, we should rely on the private markets to guide health care. And in her plan, you see increased taxes. The burden should not be raised on the American people."
Romney also spoke out against the upcoming address of Iran's
Ahmadinejad to the UN. "I was very disappointed to hear that the Secretary General of the United Nations has invited Ahmadinejad to address the General Assembly," Romney said. "I think that's a grave error. I think that invitation should be withdrawn. I think that instead Ahmadinejad should be indicted under the genocide convention."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In his first substantive economic policy speech, Obama said Wall Street needs to be more transparent in order to earn the public's trust. Like he did in Detroit while talking to auto workers -- or to a teacher's union when advocating merit pay for teachers -- Obama did not shy away from the audience he was addressing. In fact, he asked investors to join him "in ushering in a new era of mutual responsibility in America."
"The quick kill is prized without regard to long-term consequences for the financial system and the economy," Obama said to an overflowing room at the NASDAQ market site. "And while this may benefit the few who push the envelope as far as it will go, it doesn't benefit America and it doesn't benefit the market. Just because it makes money doesn't mean it's good for business."
Obama cited the subprime mortgage crisis as an example of this problem. "In theory, this should have allowed mortgage lending to be less risky and more diversified," he said. "But as certain lenders and brokers began to see how much money could be made, they began to lower their standards... Far too many continued to put their own short-term gain ahead of what they knew the long-term consequences would be when those rates exploded. Those consequences are now clear: nearly 2.5 million homeowners could lose their homes."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
This is unlikely to be the only statement we see from Dem and GOP campaigns on Clinton unveiling her health-care plan today...
Says Obama, per a statement his campaign sent to First Read: "I commend Senator Clinton for her health care proposal. It's similar to the one I put forth last spring, though my universal health care plan would go further in reducing the punishing cost of health care than any other proposal that's been offered in this campaign. But the real key to passing any health care reform is the ability to bring people together in an open, transparent process that builds a broad consensus for change. That's how I was able to pass health care reform in Illinois that covered an additional 150,000 children and their parents, and that's how we'll prevent the drug and insurance industry from defeating our reform efforts like they did in 1994."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
NBC News has learned President Bush interviewed the 66-year-old Michael Mukasey for the AG position before Bush visited Iraq and Australia (likely Aug. 30 or 31st after returning from Crawford). The position was formally offered Friday Sept. 14 in a phone call.
VIDEO: President Bush announces his choice for attorney general.
Mukasey was at the White House Sunday, but did not meet the president. He was working with staff to prepare his remarks for today and to discuss issues related to the nomination process. Outgoing AG Alberto Gonzales was also at the White House Sunday, but advisers say his visit was not related to the selection process.
Advisers suggest Mukasey can be "easily confirmed" and that was "certainly a positive." Mukasey, who has been advising fellow New Yorker Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign, will need to immediately send a letter to the Giuliani campaign to separate himself.
Mukasey has been at the White House complex since early this morning, and will have a casual meeting with the president before the announcement.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** It’s just another manic Monday: How busy is it for the candidates on this Monday more than 100 days until Iowa? Consider that Obama starts the day with an economic policy speech at the NASDAQ in New York. Then Clinton unveils her universal health-care plan in Des Moines, IA -- but not before addressing the Laborers’ Union in Chicago (which will also hear from Biden and Edwards). And then Dodd, Obama, Richardson, Clinton, and Edwards (in that order) speak at the SEIU’s political action conference in DC. And that’s just the Democrats…
*** The double-edged sword: The day’s biggest event, of course, is Clinton’s health-care speech. About 14 years after she and her husband’s White House tried to overhaul the country’s health system -- which resulted in her biggest political defeat -- Hillary jumps back into the saddle on the issue. According to news accounts over the weekend, her plan will includes mandates for coverage (which Edwards’ does but Obama’s doesn’t), preserves a large role for health insurers, and expands government programs like S-CHIP to provide universal coverage. As the Wall Street Journal put it, “A big difference from last time: She's proposing to build on the existing system of insuring Americans -- a mix of private coverage and government-subsidized care -- not remake it altogether.” The AP says the plan will cost about $110 billion a year, and Clinton plans to pay for it, in part, by repealing some of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. Clinton and health care is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it serves as a reminder of her most high profile political defeat. On the other hand, it only underscores the "experience" factor. After all, when Clinton was pushing for universal health care, Obama was only a few years removed from law school. And Edwards hadn't even focused on whether to enter politics.
*** The last shall be first: Clinton today becomes the last Democratic front-runner to unveil her health-care plan (Edwards’ came in February, and Obama’s in May). That, by itself, wouldn’t ordinarily raise any eyebrows. Yet consider this: She was the last Democratic candidate to sign the four-state pledge to bypass campaigning in Florida and Michigan; she was the last to decide to attend the YearlyKos liberal blogger convention; she was the last among the front-runners to announce supporting higher taxes for investment fund managers; she was the last (along with Obama) to announce opposition to the Iraq supplemental; and she essentially was the last to change her tone on the Iraq war. Of course, being the front-runner with a giant lead in the national polls means you can wait to react to your opponents, and those who lead in the “ideas primary” (think Gephardt in ’04, Bradley in ’00, or even Tsongas in ‘92) usually don’t win the nomination. But for someone who touts her ability to lead -- “If we're ready for change, she's ready to lead,” the announcer says in her recent TV ad -- will Clinton’s opponents argue that she isn’t leading the Dem field in anything other than in the polls?
*** Edwards steps it up: Clinton isn’t the only one who will be talking about health care today. Per NBC’s Kevin Corke, Edwards is expected pledge that -- if elected -- he will call for the elimination of the health coverage of the president, vice president, Congress, and all political appointees by July 20, 2009 unless Congress passes a universal health care coverage plan. It’s an obvious effort to distinguish himself from Clinton on health care, now that Clinton’s own plan seems similar to Edwards’. But does Edwards really want to deny Tim Johnson or Robert Byrd health care? What about any spouses of members of Congress?
*** La-Z-Boy? It was only a matter of time that some news organization was going to scrutinize Thompson's schedule, as the New York Times did on Sunday (noting his light sked). Again, this is an example of Thompson's expectations bar being higher than it would have been three months ago. Would the Times have really done an examination of Thompson's schedule had he gotten in during the summer when having a lighter schedule is expected?
*** It’s Mukasey: As expected, President Bush has tapped one of Giuliani's chief legal advisers to be the next attorney general. But it’s not Ted Olson. Instead, Bush picked retired New York Judge Michael Mukasey, who -- along with his son -- is serving an adviser to Giuliani's campaign. A senior Administration official tells NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell: "Later this morning in the Rose Garden, President Bush will announce he has chosen Judge Michael B. Mukasey as his nominee for Attorney General. Judge Mukasey has a wealth of legal and judicial experience, and has a superb reputation for his fairness, intellect, and dedication to public service.” The White House just announced that Bush will announce the Mukasey pick at 10:30 am ET.
*** A year too late? Former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) has quit the GOP. He said he did so in June or July. He's now an unaffiliated voter because he says the status better reflects his views. "It's not my party anymore," said Chafee in a weekend interview. Perhaps had Chafee left the GOP sometime in 2006, he'd still be in the Senate.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Dodd appears on NPR's Dianne Rehm Show; Giuliani holds a media avail in Fort Lauderdale, FL; Kucinich campaigns in Las Vegas; McCain, in South Carolina, continues on his “No Surrender” tour and also appears on MSNBC’s Hardball; Richardson raises money in Illinois; and Romney hosts his first online "Ask Mitt Anything" virtual town hall.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 50 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 61 days
Countdown to Iowa: 119 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 124 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 141 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 414 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 491 days
Frank Rich wrote over the weekend, "It's also past time for the Democratic presidential candidates to stop getting bogged down in bickering about who has the faster timeline for withdrawal or the more enforceable deadline. Every one of these plans is academic anyway as long as Mr. Bush has a veto pen. The security of America is more important -- dare one say it? -- than trying to outpander one another in Iowa and New Hampshire."
Meanwhile, Tom Friedman called Bush's speech a tacit resignation. "While Mr. Bush’s tacit resignation last week greatly increases the odds of a Democratic victory in 2008, there are several wild cards that could change things: a miraculous turnaround in Iraq (unlikely, but you can always hope), a terrorist attack in America, a coup in Pakistan that puts loose nukes in the hands of Islamist radicals, or a recession induced by the meltdown in the U.S. mortgage market, which forces a stark choice between bailing out Baghdad or Chicago… Democratic candidates have been talking about health care and other important issues, but the overriding foreign policy message that still comes across from them to many Americans, argues Mr. Rothkopf, is that Democrats are simply ‘anti-Bush, antiwar and antitrade.’ Be careful: despite the mess Mr. Bush has made in the world, or maybe because of it, Americans will not hand the keys to a Democrat who does not convey a ‘gut’ credibility on national security.”
Democrats wooed Iowa activists at the Harkin Steak Fry. Six candidates attended -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Obama and Richardson. Gravel and Kucinich were not invited because they do not have active campaigns in the Hawkeye State. (Check out the photo of all of the candidates holding hands and raising them in the air.)
Each of the candidates said at the steak fry they would end the war in Iraq. About 15,000 tickets were sold for the event. “Campaign aides urged Iowa supporters to attend the event, with some of the campaigns buying up blocks of the $30 tickets,” the Des Moines Register reports.
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan writes on the sign war between the campaigns at the steak fry. Along Route 92, leading into Indianola, the Clinton campaign showed the newbies how it was done. Clinton volunteers were out in shifts starting at 2:00 am planting yard sign after yard sign along the rural route. They even stole the thunder from their chief rival, the Obama campaign, by having three huge hand-made signs saying, “VOTE FOR CHANGE.”
CONTINUED >>
Previewing today’s Laborers’ forum in Chicago, the Chicago Sun-Times reports that Clinton, Edwards, and Biden will appear today at the two-day conference, while Obama will not be attending this hometown event.
CLINTON: At the Harkin Steak Fry yesterday, Clinton continued her inevitability push by announcing that the day after winning the election, she'll begin traveling the world (even before her inauguration) to declare that the era of "cowboy diplomacy is over. America is back."
On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal previewed Clinton’s health-care plan. “The most significant element of the Clinton plan is expected to be a new requirement for all Americans to have insurance. That disturbs some liberals, who worry that low-income families won't be able to afford it, as well as some conservatives, who object to such a sweeping government mandate. But many health-policy experts say it's essential that everyone be in the insurance system so that healthy people with low medical costs can balance out the sick.”
CONTINUED >>
It's official: Alan Keyes is making sense -- at least to the person he looks at in the mirror. The conservative activist announced his candidacy on Friday.
GIULIANI: NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger chronicles Giuliani's campaign stop in Loudon, NH, where the New Yorker noted how he "gets" NASCAR after attending racing events live. Meanwhile, Giuliani spoke briefly about Alan Greenspan's new book and the former Federal Reserve chairman's comments that the Iraq war was just about oil. "I haven't read Alan's book. I believe the Iraq war was about a number of things," he said. "To me, the Iraq war was about moving a pillar of support for Islamic terror." He went on to say that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime prevented Iraq from continuing to sponsor terror. "The reality is we come out of Iraq successfully, we keep them engaged and we defeat them, we put ourselves in a better position against Islamic terrorism."
HUCKABEE: The Saturday Des Moines Register reported that Huckabee, since Ames, has been spending a lot of time crisscrossing Iowa and “[f]inancial support has been growing as well. Huckabee said online contributions to his campaign the week after the Ames straw poll equaled contributions from the entire month prior to the Republican fundraiser.”
CONTINUED >>
NBC/NJ's Athena Jones examines the state of the Democratic race in South Carolina. Clinton is strong among blacks here, but she’s trailing Obama, according to a poll published in The State newspaper Friday. The survey showed Obama with a slight lead among at 35%; Clinton was second with 31% and Edwards a distant third at 3%.
Support for Obama was stronger among black men, while black women were split evenly between the two leading candidates, the poll showed. Still, 29% of black voters -- and 34% of black women -- remain undecided. The strength, breadth, and depth of the candidates’ operations here is going to make the difference in making up the minds of this large group of key Democratic constituents, party leaders said, and right now Obama is out in front, with the most offices and the most staff.
CONTINUED >>
Cheney travels to Kansas City today to raise money for Rep. Sam Graves (R). “[I]t’s the first time Cheney has publicly raised money for a House member this year. He’s also appeared for at least four senators, so far raising just $1 million to $2 million, according to unofficial estimates.”
The Washington Post: President Bush has selected retired federal judge Michael B. Mukasey as his new attorney general, sources said yesterday, moving to install a law-and-order conservative at the Justice Department while hoping to avoid a confirmation fight with Senate Democrats… Senate Democrats and their allies signaled yesterday that they were likely to accept Mukasey without a big fight and said they saw the pick as a conciliatory gesture from Bush.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
CHARLESTON, S.C. - Clinton (D-NY) used a speech at a local NAACP banquet to announce her civil rights agenda and to call for an investigation into a racially-charged Louisiana criminal case.
Before an audience of about 1,000 people, Clinton spoke about the need to restore the federal government’s role in protecting civil rights.
“To feel as though the clock is being turned back is unacceptable in this country,” Clinton told the audience.
Clinton’s five-point platform focuses on rebuilding the civil rights division of the Department of Justice, helping schools bring about voluntary integration and reducing racial inequality, strengthening voting laws, fighting racial and sex discrimination and improving federal hate crimes laws.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
ADA, Okla. -- Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani took a few questions late Friday. Giuliani on the difference between Hillary Clinton's alleged "character assassination" and his attacks against her:
"She is the one who accused someone of not telling the truth. She accused a general of doing that, a general of the Army. I am pointing out that ... that is I think very inappropriate conduct for someone who wants to be commander in chief."
"I'm not speaking about her character, I'm talking about her actions. I haven't accused her of not telling the truth. What I've said is she's engaging in something that indicates she is willing to attack a general of the Army at a time of war. So, it would seem to me all I'm doing is pointing out her behavior, and she's the one engaging in behavior of assailing the character of a general of the Army."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Traveling to Miami today to continue his campaign tour across Florida, Thompson lauded President Bush's Iraq address last night for adhering to Gen. Petraeus' plan. “I think that he is reflecting what he was told by the man who was unanimously as a great general to go down there and lead our troops,” said the former Tennessee senator. “We can have a reduction of X-number of troops by Christmas, and probably a reduction of Y-number of troops by next summer. As long as it’s part of a success scenario, obviously we need to do that.”
Thompson also sat down with a reporter from NBC Affiliate WTVJ to discuss a topic of heated debate in that region: Cuba and Fidel Castro. “Certainly our sanctions, our embargo policies should remain in place,” he said, adding, “Castro is a dictatorship that suppresses its own people, and as long as that’s the situation in Cuba, those policies should remain.”
But he also said that he would not automatically rule out possibly lifting some restrictions on remittances and travel between families currently divided by US policies toward Havana. “I understand there’s a balance to be drawn there -- we need to make sure that people have an opportunity, if we can, to go back and visit.” But he added that he does not want to see financial exchanges between the Americans and Cubans to “line Castro’s pockets.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
DES MOINES, IA -- As the 3rd fundraising quarter draws to a close, Romney is spending much of the remainder of this month raising cash -- and consequently is hosting far fewer political events than some of his rivals.
Some political pundits suggest that Romney has the most to lose from Thompson's announcement tour and subsequent bump in the polls. But the former governor's team has been working hard to tamp that down. Perhaps the biggest sign of that is the fight for Florida. Just a week ahead of Romney's two-day swing through the Sunshine State beginning on Tuesday, the campaign started conditioning the area by going up with a significant ad buy on both broadcast and cable stations in major markets there.
Today, the campaign also rolled out the endorsement of state Sen. Steve Oelrich and announced the members of the Florida African American Steering Committee, which numbers more than 40. Orange County's Deon Long chairs the committee.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannDES MOINES, IA -- Former Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright, campaigning on behalf of
Hillary Clinton on a two-day swing through first-in-the-nation caucus state Iowa, isn't making any bones about how she feels about President
Bush.
"I mean, I think he must think we're all idiots," she exclaimed to laughter and applause from the crowd of about 200 at a community center in West Des Moines. Albright cited Bush's optimistic predictions of safety in Al Anbar province, as well as his overestimations of support among coalition nations, as signs of Bush's unrealistic perceptions of the foreign policy "mess" in Iraq.
Her critiques of the Administration's war policy were received with cheers, but Albright hit a sober note when she compared the current conflict to a painful past one. "I believe that Iraq is going to go down in history as the greatest disaster in American foreign policy. That means that I am acknowledging that it is worse than Vietnam -- not in the number of Americans that have died, or Vietnamese in comparison to Iraqis, but in terms of its unintended consequences."
Among those consequences, she added, is the growing regional influence of Iran, which Albright said "has gained the most from the war in Iraq." She concluded, "America needs Hillary Clinton, because we are in a mess."
From NBC's Mark Murray
... Well, sort of.
Richardson just issued this statement linking the New England Patriots spying scandal -- which cost the Pats a first-round draft pick and their coach a fine worth hundreds of thousands of dollars -- and President
Bush. Does the link make sense? You be the judge...
"The President has been allowed to spy on Americans without a warrant, and our U.S. Senate is letting it continue," Richardson said. "You know something is wrong when the New England Patriots face stiffer penalties for spying on innocent Americans than Dick Cheney and George Bush."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
BATON ROUGE, La. -- Giuliani defended Ted Olson today as a choice for U.S. attorney general.
"Having Ted Olson as Attorney General wouldn’t just be good for Republicans, it would be good for Democrats,” Giuliani told San Francisco radio station KFSO. “It would be good for all Americans."
Giuliani and Olson have been friends since 1981, and Olson is a campaign advisor. He is headlining a “Lawyers for Rudy” event in Atlanta Monday. Olson, who served as President
Bush's solicitor general, has been accused by Senate Democrats of being overly partisan, largely because of his role in the 2000 Supreme Court case that decided the presidential election.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
BATON ROUGE, La. -- Giuliani told Louisiana sheriffs Friday that he has a secret weapon to showcase his record on crime and support from law enforcement for a possible general election.
"I have a letter -- I keep it at home," the former New York mayor said. "It's a letter from President
Clinton, congratulating me for all of my efforts and saying something like the crime bill couldn't have been passed if it weren't for me. I keep this letter; I'm going to use it at the right moment."
Over applause, he added, "You can imagine when."
Giuliani also told the Louisiana Sheriffs Association that the country would likely accept a slowdown in commercial activity for a few years if it meant ramping up a program to track people and commerce entering the country. The law enforcement crowd cheered Giuliani as he praised their new role as "domestic defense."
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
DUBUQUE, Iowa -- In this Democratic stronghold of blue collar, union labor on the banks of the idyllic Mississippi, Obama’s town hall meeting once again focused on Iraq. The audience here was eager to talk about Iraq. All three speakers who introduced Obama referenced the war and President Bush, one openly calling the president a liar.
Obama started his speech talking of the economy. He decried low wages and said that CEOs “make more money in 10 minutes than a worker does in a year.” Obama also criticized the Bush tax cuts and referenced the mismanagement by the Bush Administration after Katrina.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The liberal political action committee MoveOn.org, responsible for the “Gen. Betray Us” ad in the New York Times, will be up and running with an anti-war, anti-Bush television ad starting Monday. It’s the first in a series as part of a ‘George Bush: Betrayal of Trust’ campaign. The ad tries to make clear there is no change from Bush’s proposed way forward in Iraq to what the plan was before the surge.
“President Bush has betrayed the nation’s trust,” said MoveOn’s Nita Chaudhary in a statement. “He’s given us a sham draw-down plan -- 30,000 troops by next July is not a plan to end the war. No one is fooled by this. It’s just a political scheme to provide cover for Republicans and run out the clock to the end of his term.”
**** UPDATE **** First Read has learned that the current ad buy is from Sept. 17 to 21 and will run on D.C. cable channels and CNN nationally for a total buy of $60,000. The New York Times ad was $65,000. That's not a bad amount of buzz for a relatively small ad buy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
DES MOINES, IA -- About 100 people listened to Elizabeth Edwards speak at the A-Dong restaurant here this morning. She called her husband an 'inevitable populist," and answered questions on Iraq, Darfur and health care.
Edwards told listeners she would love to support
Biden's three-state plan, but believes it cannot work because oil revenue won't be shared equally. She said that
Kucinich had the only other true universal health-care plan and called for more international unity in pressuring the Sudanese government.
The group she spoke to -- Women for a Stronger America -- had first formed as Women for Kerry after the caucuses in 2004. Fern Andrew of Windsor Heights said she had caucused for Edwards in 2004 and planned to do it again.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Embracing being a lame duck: You’ve got to admit that last night’s speech was pretty remarkable. Here was a president -- with just 30% supporting his handling of Iraq and only 37% believing that victory is possible there -- who called for keeping US soldiers in Iraq beyond his presidency. Bush has embraced his lame duckness (although the death of the key US ally sheik, Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha, could not have come at a worse time for Bush). At the same time, however, it’s perhaps even more stunning that a president with just 30% job approval on Iraq can win this policy fight. But that's exactly what's happening. Today, Bush attends military luncheon at the Marine Corps base in Quantico before making a statement, and Cheney reinforces the White House message on Iraq with a speech in Michigan.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck todd offfers his first read on President Bush's iraq speech and MoveOn.org's "General Betray Us" ad.
*** Obama, Giuliani and Edwards making hay: Before and after Bush’s Iraq speech, we saw plenty of Obama (on the TV networks, giving an Iraq speech in Iowa) and Edwards (in paid airtime on MSNBC). In fact, Obama and Giuliani -- who is making political hay (and raising money) off that MoveOn ad -- probably did more to set themselves apart on the Iraq issue than any of the other candidates this week.
***
But where was Hillary? Clinton’s Senate office released a statement last night, but -- except for her remarks when picking up the endorsement from the National Association of Letter Carriers on Wednesday -- that was it from her on Iraq. Was her campaign trying to limit her appearances this week, so she didn’t have to talk about Hsu? Of course, with those LA Times/Bloomberg polls finding that anti-war Democrats are siding with Hillary, perhaps she didn’t need to do as much on Iraq this week. Still, if Hsu wasn't hanging over her head, would Clinton have been a more public face this week? After all, Iraq is THE "commander in chief" question of this election. Next week, though, is setting up as a big one for Clinton: She unveils the final phase of her health-care plan, which will bring more not so fond memories of the '90s for the Clinton camp.
*** Senate map taking shape: Readers know we're 90% focused on the presidential race, but this week clearly stands out as one where the Senate picture started becoming clearer. Developments in three key states show why Democrats are favored to not only HOLD their Senate majority, but to build on it. The party nabbed two big-time recruits: Mark Warner in Virginia and Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire, and the Republicans found themselves having to deal with another open seat -- thanks to the retirement of Republican Chuck Hagel.
***
Take that, Obama! Just days after Obama’s star-studded fundraiser with Oprah, Clinton tonight has her own celeb fundraiser in Los Angeles tonight with someone the hoops-loving Obama obviously knows a thing or two about: Magic Johnson. Before the fundraiser, Clinton and the former Lakers star stop by a magnet school in the city. Also, Bill Clinton hosts a fundraiser for his wife down in Laredo, TX.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Biden is in Iowa; Dodd does Conan O’Brien; Giuliani speaks in Baton Rouge, LA and then campaigns in Oklahoma; Huckabee spends his day in Iowa; Kucinich stumps in where we wish we were -- Hawaii; McCain, in New Hampshire, continues on his “No Surrender” tour; Richardson is in Iowa; and Fred Thompson remains in Florida. Also, both Madeleine Albright (campaigning for Clinton) and Elizabeth Edwards campaign in Iowa.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 36 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 53 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 64 days
Countdown to Iowa: 122 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 127 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 144 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 417 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 494 days
USA Today’s Page says, “With this year's ‘surge’ of U.S. forces and this week's testimony by Gen. David Petraeus, President Bush is getting what he wants on Iraq: More time… In his eighth prime-time appeal since the U.S.-led invasion four years ago, the president endorsed the recommendations Petraeus detailed before congressional panels this week. Bush proposed withdrawing by July 25,000 combat troops deployed in this year's increase and waiting until March before weighing what comes next… By then, the spate of early primaries are likely to have chosen the presidential nominees. Whether to limit the mission or significantly reduce the troop presence in Iraq will turn out to be up to one of them.”
The New York Times’ analysis: “[S]ome Democrats advising Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have privately expressed fears that Mr. Bush is essentially leaving it to the next president to take the responsibility for a rapid pullout — and the blame for whatever chaos or civil war may ensue. And even some moderate Republicans have little interest in talking to voters about an enduring troop presence in Iraq or the region, for fear it suggests that there really is no end in sight. That points to a tactical political victory for Mr. Bush, which is very different from the question of whether he can realize the goal he once described so optimistically: a free, unified Iraq.”
The Los Angeles Times writes, “For more than four years since the invasion of Iraq, President Bush most often has defined his objective there with a single, stirring word: ‘Victory.’… But this week, the word "victory" disappeared from the president's lexicon. It was replaced by a slightly more ambiguous goal: ‘Success.’”
CONTINUED >>
McCain: "The people of Anbar province … have reduced the influence of Al Qaeda dramatically, thanks to the brave people like the young sheikh who just gave his life," said McCain, denying that any political effect would come from Abu Risha's death. "We have thousands of more Sunnis who are fighting for our side." McCain also went after Hillary Clinton and other Democrats for not denouncing the MoveOn ad.
NBC-NJ's Mike Memoli reports that McCain was finishing a rally in a Hudson, NH VFW hall, so he didn't see the speech. But he later told Larry King it was a good speech anyway, and then echoed lines from his "No Surrender" tour. After the Senate debate, he said it's back to the "Straight Talk Express." And picking on an old(er) guy, he invited Larry to join him and said they'd have a wheelchair waiting for him on board.
Also, NBC-NJ's Erin McPike notes that Romney was en route back to Boston from Texas during the speech, but his campaign did issue a statement again attacking Clinton, Obama, and Edwards as agents of weakness in the face of Al Qaeda and singling out Iran as a growing threat.
The CONTINUED >>
Tavis Smiley, who is supposed to moderate the next GOP debate, says that three of the top four Republicans (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney)
have turned down his 9/27 invite, and he accused them of ignoring minority voters.
It also looks like Thompson will also take a pass on the PBS-Smiley debate.
Giuliani leads Thompson and McCain 24-19-15 in an AP poll out today.
GIULIANI: The campaign today runs its own print ad in the New York Times (on A9 in our Washington edition), which defends Petraeus and targets both MoveOn and Clinton. The campaign says it received the same ad as MoveOn did.
HUCKABEE: The ex-governor drew a crowd of about 75 while campaigning in the Iowa side of the Quad Cities.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Perhaps this was inevitable, but the Wall Street Journal takes a look at the fundraising controversy that shadowed Clinton's 2000 Senate campaign. "Clinton's entanglement with a thrice-convicted felon named Peter Paul is proof of how long campaign-finance problems can haunt a public official. Mr. Paul became a problem for Mrs. Clinton when his criminal past became public shortly after he helped organize and finance a gala Hollywood fund-raiser for her in August 2000. Rather than drift away, Mr. Paul has been on the attack against Mrs. Clinton ever since. In a lawsuit in California state court that has been grinding along for years, Mr. Paul accuses Mrs. Clinton and former President Bill Clinton of deceiving him into spending well over $1 million on the fund-raiser for her Senate campaign. Mr. Paul contends the Clintons obtained the money by falsely promising that Mr. Clinton would become Mr. Paul's business associate after leaving the White House in January 2001. Mr. Paul also maintains that Mrs. Clinton and her campaign violated federal election law in connection with the fund-raiser."
The Clintons have denied any wrongdoing.
The Los Angeles Times looks at the bundling system of fundraising and attempts to explain how a guy like Hsu could so quickly become a player.
The New York Times, meanwhile, has the update on Hsu's court appearance yesterday.
CONTINUED >>
The news only gets better for the Democrats, especially the DSCC. A day after Mark Warner formally decided to run for the open Virginia seat, it appears former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is ready for a rematch with GOP Sen. John Sununu.
Speaking of Warner… In an interview with NBC Washington affiliate WRC-TV, the former Democratic Virginia governor, talked about his Senate bid, notes NBC’s Andrew Merten. “We’re going to have a window in January 2009, whoever the next president is, where there could be an opportunity to really make progress,” he said, adding, “And I think the approach that we had in Virgina, where we were bipartisan, focused on results -- I’d like to try to bring that approach to Washington.”
Warner was considered a likely Democratic presidential contender until dropping out last fall, and now says that doesn’t intend to endorse any candidate in his party’s primaries. Asked if a Hillary Clinton ticket would make his more difficult, the former governor sidestepped the question. “I think that you’re going to see a continued desire for change in America,” he said, concluding: “I think the Democrats are going to nominate a very strong candidate. I’m not sure who that’s going to be at this point.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Seizing on MoveOn's recent ad attacking Gen. Petraeus in the New York Times, plus Hillary Clinton's own comments criticizing the general's report, the Giuliani campaign has submitted its own ad to the New York Times that takes on both MoveOn and Clinton. (Note that the Giuliani campaign is trying to raise money with it.)
The ad goes: "Who should America listen to... A decorated soldier's commitment to defending America, or Hillary Clinton's commitment to defending MoveOn? (Clinton, however, didn't necessarily defend MoveOn; she just didn't denounce the group's ad.)
Responding to Giuliani's ad, Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer tells First Read, "Mayor Giuliani supports George Bush's Iraq policy and believes it is working. Senator Clinton knows it isn’t and will keep up her efforts to end the war. She believes the best way to honor our heroes in Iraq is to bring them home."
From NBC’s Andy Merten
Joe Biden played up his electability during remarks in Iowa today, after picking up the endorsement of Iowa House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
“I believe, at the end of the day, one of the major issues for the people of Iowa to consider me, and the other candidates is, our electability nationwide,” Biden told a crowd in Des Moines. Will we be able to go into those 30 states we’ve consistently lost the last eight years and be able to generate genuine support and have an opportunity to compete in 15 of those states? You cannot govern this country merely by winning the same 20 states plus one. That will give you enough electoral votes, but it will not give you the mandate you need.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
BOSTON -- Just two days after the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Mitt Romney unveiled the circle of advisers he’s leaning on for counsel on counterterrorism and intelligence matters.
Despite being one of the most vocal “Washington must change” agents of the top-tier Republican presidential candidates, Romney's Intelligence Policy Advisory Group will be chaired by Michigan Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who chaired the House Intelligence Committee when Republicans controlled Congress and now serves as the party’s senior member.
The eight men on the Counterterrorism Policy Advisory Group will be led by Cofer Black, a former coordinator for counterterrorism in the State Department who previously spent 28 years in the CIA. The additional seven members have long resumes within the executive branch, with security companies in the private sector and in the diplomatic arena.
The timing of the announcement is notable given that a spokesman said the campaign has been working to form the group since Romney announced his candidacy earlier this year.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
MAQUOKETA, Iowa -- Ending the Iraq war dominated Obama's town hall here held under the rustling of leafy green trees and a bright blue sky. Obama largely repeated his stump speech on turning the page in Iraq from the day before to a crowd made up of students, town officials and senior citizens.
He stressed his initial opposition to the war and the importance of personal diplomacy in helping to make American safer. He also that said unlike other Democrats, he was not focused on "the political winds in Washington." The audience was more subdued and attentive than the crowds from the day before, but they gave strong rounds of applause each time Obama criticized the Bush Administration.
Obama also stressed his desire to reach out to America's enemies was a sign of his strength as a leader, someone who is unafraid of criticism. He referenced the spat he had with Clinton on the issue of speaking to America's foes during the question-and-answer period.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Jeannie Ohm and Mark Murray
A senior Administration official previewing the president's speech tonight says Bush has consulted with the Joint Chiefs, and has accepted General Petraeus' recommendations to bring 2,200 Marines home this month and 3,500 other soldiers by Christmas -- so a total of 5,700 troops by end of this year.
And he will also accept Petraeus' call to reduce the number of combat brigades from 20 to 15 by next summer -- bringing the size of the US forces there from 160,000 to its pre-surge level of 130,000.
*** Update *** According to NBC Pentagon producer Courtney Kube, the size of US forces by next summer is likely to be closer to 144,000 -- per a senior US military official. That is higher than the pre-surge level.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Ned Lamont would defeat Joe Lieberman in a general election rematch if the Connecticut Senate race took place today, according to a poll conducted by Research 2000 and commissioned by the liberal Web site Daily Kos. Lamont would win 48-40-10 over Lieberman and Republican Alan Schlesinger. Lieberman won the 2006 election 50-40-10 after losing to Lamont, fueled by liberal group MoveOn.org, in the Democratic primary.
From NBC’s Kelly O’DonnellAdvisors say Vice President Dick
Cheney will reinforce the White House message in a planned appearance tomorrow in Michigan at the Gerald R. Ford Museum. Advisors add that Cheney will respond to Democrats’ reactions, if the White House determines that is necessary.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
This morning, Thompson spoke to a group of about 200 people on the banks of the St. Johns River in Jacksonville, Fla. The sprawling crowd wandered in and out of the sunny street-side venue while the candidate was speaking, but Thompson received a generally enthusiastic welcome. Apparently the audience didn't read any of the conservative opinion columns this morning that panned Thompson's entry into the race because the Republican voters who offered their reactions after the speech seemed convinced that Thompson was the man for the job.
Jacksonville resident and Republican voter Greg Brock called Thompson "an energizer."
"The military's energized because [Thompson] got in the race," said Brock, a military veteran whose brother just came back from his third tour in Iraq. "He's going to win. I've been to the last two inaugurations, my wife and I, and we're going to the next one to see him. He'll be there. I know he'll be there."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Yahoo’s MashUp "debate" was supposed to give Internet viewers the chance to edit together what candidates said via Yahoo’s JumpCut Web site. But, as Wired reports, that feature hit the cutting-room floor. The result is simply a new election feature with interviews by Charlie Rose and Bill Maher with the eight Democratic presidential contenders. It’s an interesting way to organize and house candidates’ responses on issues, but the joint Huffington Post-Yahoo!-Slate feature is certainly not a true debate, of course, because the candidates cannot interact with each other and don’t appear together. But what voters do at least get is the candidates’ views on Iraq, health care and education broken down by issue and on video.
The toughest questions came from Maher. In one, he asks Clinton about her war vote: "Why should Americans vote for someone who can be fooled by George Bush?" Clinton laughed it off and said, “It was a little more complicated than that. I sought out expert opinions from a wide variety of sources. …At the time I made it very clear I was against a pre-emptive war.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier, tonight, the Edwards campaign is buying two minutes of airtime on MSNBC to respond to Bush's speech on Iraq.
Here are some excerpts from Edwards’s ad:
"Unfortunately, the president is pressing on with the only strategy he's ever had - more time, more troops, and more war."
"In January, after years of evidence that military actions cannot force a political solution, the president announced a military surge to force a political solution. In May, he vetoed a plan to end the war, demanded more time to show the surge could work, and Congress gave it to him. Now, after General Petraeus reports the surge has produced no progress toward a political solution, what does the president want? More time for the surge to work, when all of us know it won't."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
In a video on his Web site, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner (D) announces he's running for retiring GOP Sen. John Warner's Senate seat. "I've decided the way I can contribute most to getting our country back on the right track is to serve in the United States Senate," he says. "So after this November's legislative elections, I will announce a formal candidacy for the Senate, and I'm going to work like heck to for the next 14 months to get Virginians to hire me."
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman Chuck Schumer released this statement on Warner's candidacy, which gives Democrats an excellent chance of picking up this seat: “I have come to know Mark in the last six months and have seen he is an outstanding American leader who will run a great campaign and be a tremendous asset to his state and his country. We’re excited about his campaign and even more excited about him joining us in the Senate.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, however, released its own statement that unveils a Web site highlighting Warner's tax increase in Virginia. "Make no mistake about it, Mark Warner is a politician who can't be trusted to keep his promises to voters," NRSC communications director Rebecca Fisher said. "And his prime example is raising Virginians' taxes by $1.38 billion."
*** Bush as Lloyd Carr? Heading into his 9:00 pm ET address tonight, President Bush has seen his Iraq numbers improve in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. But such improvement is akin to Michigan beating Notre Dame this weekend in college football: It’s a win, but it won’t change the fans’ minds that the season is lost, and they want to fire the man in charge, no matter what. Just 30% approve of Bush’s handling on Iraq, which is up eight points since July. In addition, 37% think victory there is still possible, up five points. Per NBC/WSJ pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R), the improvement comes primarily from Republicans, which might be enough to keep his party’s lawmakers behind him. However, American public opinion -- like Michigan fans this year -- has already moved on.
*** The Dems' Response: Using Bush’s speech as a backdrop, all of the top Democratic candidates are trying to use this week as a chance to distinguish themselves on Iraq. Obama did it yesterday with a speech in Clinton, IA (no accident); Clinton sent a letter to Bush criticizing him for supporting a plan that will have as many troops in Iraq next year as there were last year. And Edwards has bought time on MSNBC tonight to respond to Bush's speech. So far, it appears Obama's gotten the best media bump out of his efforts this week, but let's see what Edwards and Clinton have up their sleeves for tonight and tomorrow.
*** Potential Trouble for the Dems? Looking at the horserace numbers in the NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats have to wish the general election was being held today. The overall political environment is in their favor; they lead in a generic presidential contest by double digits (49%-36%); and their presidential front-runners have solid leads over their GOP counterparts in individual match-ups. But with more than 400 days until Election Day, are things beginning to narrow somewhat? While Democrats have a 13-point lead in the generic ballot, that’s down from 18 points in April. What’s more, their lead among independents on this question is now eight points -- down from 21 points in April. And then there’s the Democratic leader, Hillary Clinton, who scores incredibly well on the feeling thermometer with Democrats (72%-13%), but not so well with independents (39%-42%) and Republicans (13%-79%). “It appears their leading candidate doesn’t appeal to non-Democratic voters,” Newhouse tells First Read.
*** A Tale of Two GOP Electorates: While Clinton has a commanding lead over Obama and Edwards in the Democratic contest (44%-23%-16%), that’s no longer true for Giuliani -- who has seen his lead over Fred Thompson shrink from 13 points in July to six points in this latest survey. Dem pollster Hart sees a “tale of two electorates” when looking at Rudy vs. Fred: Giuliani does well with GOP voters who live on the coasts, happen to be younger and are non-conservatives, while Thompson does well with those from the South and Midwest, those who are older, and those who identify themselves as conservatives. The good news for Thompson: The subgroups that favor him tend to be the Republicans who vote in primaries. By the way, how should the Romney campaign feel that Thompson did in one week what Romney's been trying to do for six months: unite rank-and-file GOP primary voters?
*** Fred Compared to Britney? Speaking of Fred… Besides his standing in the polls, he’s had a few bumps and bruises after jumping into the GOP nomination race. His launch TV ad? Not great. His launch video? Not bad. His launch speech? Eh. His revolving communications staff? Definitely not a good way to start. All of this has led some to believe that there could be an opening for someone else -- like Newt Gingrich. The former Speaker informed the Union Leader's John DiStaso that he'll reassess his chances at the October; if he can secure $30 million in commitments and if the field is still floundering (shot at Fred?), then he'll get in. Gingrich seemed leaning toward supporting Thompson, so what happened? One GOP strategist told First Read that Thompson’s early gaffes increase the chances of Gingrich jumping in. “Fred Thompson is the Britney Spears of the Republican Party -- a little overweight, a little tired.” Sadly for Thompson, it wasn't the only Britney comparison; see today's Gail Collins. George Will and Robert Novak have also panned Thompson's first week. In: Waiting for Gingrich? Out: Waiting for Thompson?
*** On the Trail: Biden stumps in Iowa; Dodd appears on Air America Radio at 12:30pm ET; Huckabee hosts a conference call with bloggers and reporters; McCain, on Day Three of his “No Surrender” tour, campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama holds three town halls in Iowa; Richardson also hits the Hawkeye State; and Thompson makes his first campaign swing through Florida. Also, Madeleine Albright (campaigning for Clinton) and Elizabeth Edwards are both in Iowa.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 37 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 54 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 65 days
Countdown to Iowa: 123 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 128 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 145 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 418 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 495 days
Also in the new NBC/WSJ poll, 33% says the surge is helping the situation in Iraq, 15% say it’s hurting the situation, and 48% say it’s not making a difference either way. Moreover, only 35% think that removing Saddam Hussein from power was worth the US casualties and cost of the war. Bush’s overall approval rating stands at 33%, a two-point increase from July.
The Wall Street Journal, NBC’s polling partner, writes that the new survey “shows an uptick in support for the president’s handling of the war. However modest, the gains come as welcome news for the White House as it seeks to hold enough Republican Congressional support to sustain Mr. Bush’s Iraq policy through the end of his term. Mr. Bush has been buffeted by high-profile Republican dissent from such party stalwarts as Sens. Richard Lugar of Indiana and Pete Domenici of New Mexico. But majority Democrats haven’t yet come close to amassing the two thirds votes needed in the House and Senate to override a presidential veto of a measure that would force an accelerated withdrawal beyond the gradual drawdown of the 30,000 ‘surge’ troops that Mr. Bush is expected to announce tonight.”
Here is MSNBC.com’s take on the poll.
CONTINUED >>
The Politico's Martin takes a look the GOP candidates' campaign teams in Florida.
GINGRICH: Just when you thought the field was set, up pops Newt Gingrich. He tells Mr. "Granite Status" himself, the Union Leader's John DiStaso, that he'll give the GOP field until the end of October to impress him and then he'll ponder jumping in.
Also, don't miss this quote from former Iowa GOP chair Steve Grubbs, who says he believes Gingrich is going to get in. Does he know something? Gingrich's fingers doing the dialing to unattached campaign staffers like Grubbs?
GIULIANI: NBC's Chuck Todd makes a case that Giuliani's road to the GOP nomination may have fewer potholes than Clinton's. Giuliani's biggest asset: He's set himself up to survive early losses in Iowa and New Hampshire better than Clinton -- thanks mostly to the safety nets of Florida and Michigan. It's a luxury Clinton doesn't have since she signed the four-state pledge.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reports that Biden today will pick up the endorsement of Iowa House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Per the campaign, McCarthy's support for Biden is based on the senator's foreign policy background and his plan for a measured withdrawal from Iraq. McCarthy's nod will be Biden's eighth endorsement out of the state legislature in Iowa.
CLINTON: The new Los Angles Times/Bloomberg polls in the early states finds voters who are the most anti-war are siding with Clinton. "Many of those voters who want an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops support her candidacy and consider her best able to end the war, as do many who back a more gradual drawdown… The findings help explain why the New York senator has built a strong lead over Democratic rivals who have made their opposition to the war the centerpiece of their campaigns -- and who have laid out more-detailed plans for quicker troop reductions."
Clinton made her first public comments about Hsu since the campaign decided to return nearly a $1 million in contributions Hsu raised. “‘I believe that the vast majority of those 200-plus donors are perfectly capable of making up their own minds about what they will or won't do going forward,’ Clinton said in a conference call with reporters -- her first public comments on the fallout of Hsu's arrest and her decision to return the $850,000 he collected for her presidential bid.
CONTINUED >>
This is a pretty interesting finding in the latest NBC/WSJ poll: 57% say the early start to the presidential campaign has had a negative effect (because candidates will raise and spend too much money and voters will lose interest in the campaign), compared with 36% who think it has been positive (because it gives voters more time to learn about the candidates and their issues).
Don’t miss the new Time first families poll. Apparently, the Clintons and Romneys are big fans of Grey’s Anatomy; the McCains watch 24; the Obamas can’t avoid SpongeBob Square Pants; Elizabeth Edwards is tired of chicken caesar salad; and Cindy McCain doesn’t like doughnuts. Also, which couple prefers college basketball, which spouse has the “best laugh,” and which candidate fancies himself a “BBQ master?”
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli spent some time with the most important person in the presidential race right now: New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, who has yet to set the date for his state’s primary. Gardner says he’s “waiting for the dust to settle” after Michigan’s primary move before deciding when the New Hampshire primary will be held. He declined to otherwise say how soon a decision would be made. “I intend to do it as I’ve done it before,” he said. “I’ve never had to change it once I’ve set it.”
CONTINUED >>
In the latest NBC/WSJ poll, only 23% approve of Congress’ job. In addition, the Democratic Party -- for the first time in nearly a year -- has a net-negative rating on the feeling thermometer (34% positive/38% negative. “Dissatisfaction with Congress has dragged down the image of the Democratic Party,” says pollster Neil Newhouse (R). However, the GOP’s rating is even worse (31% positive/47% negative. And, by a 47%-35% margin, voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a GOP-controlled one.
A potential pick up for Democrats in Virginia? The Washington Post: “Former Virginia governor Mark R. Warner will announce today that he is running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican John W. Warner, setting the stage for one of the most competitive races in the country next year, according to sources familiar with his decision. Warner … will make his announcement in an e-mail to supporters Thursday but won't formally begin his campaign until after the state legislative races in November, according to the sources, who spoke directly with Warner.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
Zbigniew Brzezinski doesn't believe in speaking down to his audience.
The former national security advisor to Jimmy Carter introduced Obama at Ashford University in Iowa today, after decrying what he called the Bush administration's colonialist policies in a postcolonial world, adding the Administration had "used mendacity" to justify the war and that "it has discredited America as a whole."
For Brzezinski, 79, support for Obama means support for a radical change in direction of American foreign policy. But some argue Brzezisnski's support could hurt Obama, particularly with Jewish voters. The Politico today wrote Brzezinski came under fire this summer for an essay he wrote in the journal Foreign Policy, “defending a controversial new book about the power of the ‘Israel Lobby’ in American politics.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten and NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
Obama laid out his four-point strategy for Iraq today before a packed crowd at Ashton University in Clinton, Iowa. It is comprised of: 1) Commencing in an immediate withdrawal of one or two brigades (3,500 or 7,000 troops) a month; 2) a pressing effort for political stability, with aid from a United Nations constitutional convention; 3) increased regional diplomacy, especially with leaders of Syria and Iran; and 4) humanitarian intervention and financial aid to help stem the effects of current and future sectarian violence.
Although the Obama plan calls for a remaining residual military presence to protect American diplomatic and military personnel and continue hunting al-Qaeda, the Illinois senator did not, in his speech or in an extended overview of his plan, reveal exactly how many troops would remain. In addition, the Edwards campaign, speaking with reporters on a conference call on Monday, called for a residual force but denied to give exact numbers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Giuliani today blasted MoveOn.org and others for questioning Gen. Petraeus' report, and he specifically went after Clinton -- part of his strategy to appeal to primary voters as a 50-state general election candidate.
He singled out the New York senator, saying he didn't understand her assertion that accepting the general's report meant suspending disbelief. "I don't even know what it means," Giuliani said of her comments, after tasting ice cream at a candy shop outside Pittsburgh. "It sounds like we shouldn't believe him. I don't believe she has any right to question his integrity."
Giuliani said he did believe Petraeus, but even if he didn't, he believed the general was due more respect. However, h said he did not watch the hearings yesterday because of the 9/11 commemorations.
Giuliani also attacked Obama's remarks today on Iraq, questioning the policy of a timetable for ending a war. "When in the history of war had an army ever given its enemy a timetable of retreat?"
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
The political dissonance surrounding the Petraeus-Crocker testimony was on display this afternoon during simultaneous press conferences by Democratic and Republican leaders.
Hours after landing in Baghdad, House Republican leader John Boehner and fellow travelers convened an intercontinental conference call with homebound American reporters. At literally the same moment, Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid and colleagues came before cameras in the U.S. Capitol. Their interpretations of the situation in Iraq were wildly divergent, and though unaware of what the other was saying, they took turns contradicting each other in real time.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
After the National Association of Letter Carriers endorsed Clinton, she took the opportunity to blast President Bush on the Iraq troop withdrawal he plans to announce Thursday night. She said it was "simply too little, too late" and said the reduction was going to happen anyhow.
"Taking credit for this troop reduction is like taking credit for the sun coming up in the morning," Clinton told an audience of about 50 letter carriers. "We don't need another mission accomplished moment."
Gen. Petraeus has proposed a decrease of 30,000 troops by August of next year. In an address to the nation on Thursday evening, Bush is expected to announce he is accepting that recommendation. Clinton sent a letter to Bush today urging him to withdraw more troops, rather than simply returning troop levels in August 2008 to what they were in August 2006.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Club for Growth is no fan of Huckabee. The conservative group’s latest attack on the former Arkansas governor comes in the form of an anti-Huckabee Web site, TaxHikeMike. The site contains videos of Huckabee statements, which the group claims as “Evidence.” It also says he’s “getting cozy with labor unions” and cites speaking at the National Education Association and receiving the endorsement of the International Association of Machinists.
“He even received the latter’s endorsement!” the site exclaims. The machinists union also endorsed Clinton, but it said it endorsed Huckabee because he “was the only Republican candidate with the guts to meet with our members and the only one willing to figure out where and how we might work together.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Romney is up running his “Energy” ad in Florida with a “significant buy” on broadcast and cable, according to his campaign. The ad is running in Jacksonville, Ft. Myers, Orlando, Tampa and West Palm Beach, according to GOP sources.
Romney was up in Florida in February with a limited buy with their introductory ad, but this is their first significant move into the state where Giuliani leads in the polls. The buy also coincides with Fred Thompson’s first campaign appearances in the state beginning tomorrow in Jacksonville.
**** UPDATE **** From NBC's Chuck Todd... The buy is from the 12th to the 18th and is approximately $400,000 for the week.
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Former congressional aide Neil Volz, who pleaded guilty to conspiring with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff to bribe members of congress, was sentenced today to two years probation, 100 hours of community service and fined $2000.
Volz, 36, a former chief of staff to former Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH), was spared jail time, according to prosecutors, because his cooperation with the Justice Department’s investigation was instrumental in their conviction of Ney.
"I am ashamed for what I have done,” said a tearful Volz addressing the court just before hearing his sentence from U.S. District Judge Ellen Huvelle. "I broke the law by putting my interests ahead of the public … I know the difference between right and wrong, and what I did was wrong."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
Clinton picked up the endorsement of the 300,000-member National Association of Letter Carriers in Washington today.
"In the primary elections next year, you can count on letter carriers to deliver for Senator Clinton, and I am confident that in the years to come, President Hillary Clinton will deliver for every citizen throughout America," NALC President William Young said in a statement. Young said Clinton was the best prepared to fight for universal health insurance and to strengthen Social Security. "Hillary Clinton has the strength and experience to deliver the change we need. She's ready to lead this country from her first day in the White House."
The NALC, affiliated with the AFL-CIO, represents city letter carriers employed by the U.S. Postal Service in all 50 states and U.S. jurisdictions.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama On Iraq: A day after getting a handful of minutes to speak, er, question Petraeus -- and after talking with NBC’s David Gregory on TODAY earlier this morning -- Obama gives a speech today on Iraq from Iowa. In it, per the campaign, he will outline his plan for ending the war in Iraq, which includes pulling out combat troops at a pace of one or two brigades every month, to be completed by the end of next year. Yesterday, while talking at, er, grilling Petraeus and Crocker, Obama said: "I have to say, and this hasn't been commented on, I think that we should not have had this discussion on 9/11 or 9/10 or 9/12. Because I think it perpetuates this notion that somehow the original decision to go into Iraq was directly related to the attacks on 9/11." Yet as a rival campaign points out to First Read, if that’s true, why is he giving an Iraq speech today on September 12? Still, this is Obama's next best chance to emphasize what the campaign believes is a real difference between him and Clinton on the top issue in the primary.
*** The Hsu Keeps Dropping: When the Clinton campaign announced on Monday night that it was returning the $850,000 Norman Hsu had raised, it appeared that the story was over, right? Well, not quite… The New York Times reports today that the Clinton campaign, per an adviser, will try to get most of the money back -- if it came from the donors’ own bank accounts, and not from Hsu or another source. So is it really returning the money when the campaign seeks to get it back? Also, the Politico notes that bulldog Rep. Henry Waxman “has promised to ask the National Archives for documents relating to President Bill Clinton’s Office of Political Affairs… [That] could mean fresh scrutiny and publicity for long-forgotten meetings and presentations during the Clinton administration” -- which could be another headache for the Clinton campaign.
*** A Lot Of Finger-Pointing Going On: One can only imagine the finger-pointing going on inside the Clinton fundraising machine. It's never been a happy team of folks as there was some infighting over control and strategy early on. Nothing has been easy on the Clinton fundraising front. While they've raised impressive money, they've only found themselves "keeping up" with Obama, which of course is not how it was supposed to be. And now with the Hsu fiasco, don't be surprised if some who felt as if they weren't being listened to will push to get their way. With just 18 days to go before the end of the third fundraising quarter, this controversy couldn't be coming at a worse time.
*** One New Yorker Up, The Other One Flat-lining: Despite the Hsu story, Clinton keeps soaring in the polls. A brand-new Washington Post/ABC poll has her maintaining her double-digit national lead over Obama, while Bloomberg/LA Times shows her leading in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. On the GOP side, meanwhile, the Post/ABC poll finds Giuliani out in front -- but losing ground to Thompson. Moreover, the Bloomberg/LA Times survey shows him trailing Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Thompson in South Carolina (although he’s just a few points behind, within the margin of error in NH and SC). But Giuliani flat-lining in the national polls probably says more about Thompson. Despite Beltway insiders nitpicking every little detail about Thompson’s announcement tour (the staff departures, his different statements on Osama bin Laden, saying that he often doesn’t attend church), Thompson has gotten a nice bounce since officially jumping into the race. Of course, Thompson got a similar bounce in June, dragging Giuliani down a bit and then Giuliani floated back up. Will this bounce stick? And what does it mean for Romney, who may have more at risk with the rise of Thompson? Maybe that explains the phonyfred.com Web site?
*** Get Ready For Another Poll: Is Clinton the overwhelming national front-runner? Is Thompson truly catching up to Giuliani? How do Americans view the surge? And do voters view this VERY early presidential contest as a positive or a negative? For answers, watch NBC Nightly News beginning at 6:30 pm ET -- or click on to MSNBC.com at the same time -- for the results of the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
*** The Monster Mash: The eight Democratic presidential candidates participate today in the Yahoo!/Huffington Post/Slate Mashup, an online forum moderated by PBS’s Charlie Rose. There will be additional questions from online readers and viewers. But candidates will not interact
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Dodd appears on Countdown with Keith Olbermann; Giuliani campaigns in Akron, OH; Huckabee raises money in Beverly Hills; McCain, in Iowa, continues on his “No Surrender” tour; Paul campaigns in Southern California; Richardson fundraises in Texas; and Romney is also in Texas, where he speaks to the Midland County Republican Women's Club and then raises money in Dallas and Houston. Also, Elizabeth Edwards appears on Rachel Ray.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 38 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 55 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 66 days
Countdown to Iowa: 124 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 129 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 146 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 419 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 496 days
Per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan, Obama in his speech today will lay out a detailed withdrawal plan from Iraq, and map out what American foreign policy would look like under an Obama presidency. Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki says, "Obama will outline what this war has cost us as a nation and lay out his plan for ending the war -- with new policy proposals on troop withdrawals, diplomacy within Iraq and offer aggressive action to deal with Iraq's humanitarian crisis: and talk about what American can accomplish in the world once we end the war."
According to excerpts the campaign has released, Obama will say: “There is something unreal about the debate that’s taking place in Washington… The bar for success is so low that it is almost buried in the sand. The American people have had enough of the shifting spin. We’ve had enough of extended deadlines for benchmarks that go unmet. We’ve had enough of mounting costs in Iraq and missed opportunities around the world. We’ve had enough of a war that should never have been authorized and should never have been waged.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York Times reports that the Clinton campaign is returning the $850,000 Norman Hsu raised, “viewing the money as tainted. Yet the campaign is also risking another public relations mess by saying that it would take back the money if it clearly came from the donor’s bank account, not from Mr. Hsu or another source. The risk is that Mrs. Clinton will appear to want more cash no matter whether it was once colored by a disgraced donor.”
“The campaign will try to get most of the donors to give the money back right after the refunds, said a senior Democratic strategist who advises Mrs. Clinton’s campaign. ‘That’s the plan,’ the strategist said.”
The New York Daily News reveals that “FBI agents are collecting e-mail evidence in the widening [Hsu] scandal.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum notes that Giuliani yesterday spoke at the 9/11 memorial ceremony for just one minute. And half of the time, he quoted Holocaust survivor Elie Weisel.
NBC/NJ campaign reporter Matthew Berger adds the Giuliani campaign yesterday took down its Web site in memory of the 9/11 attacks. The blue page that remained read, "September 11, 2001: We will not forget," and it included a quote from Giuliani's address to the United Nations in Oct. 2001. “This massive attack was intended to break our spirit. It has not done that. It has made us stronger, more determined and more resolved." The only active link was for the National Sept. 11 Memorial and Museum Web site. Campaign officials said it was not a day for politics.
HUCKABEE: The one-time middle-of-the-pack Mike Huckabee is getting more and more top tier- like coverage. The AP's Ron Fournier looks at Huckabee's toughness, noting that behind his nice guy exterior is someone with a lot of political skills.
CONTINUED >>
Bloomberg/L.A. Times is out with polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the surveys conclude that Giuliani's support is soft in the early states (he trails in all three, Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Thompson leads in South Carolina). Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, the polls show Clinton leading in all three. Look for the Edwards folks to dispute the Iowa results, in particular, very strongly. But this isn't the first round of polls in these early states that have shown Clinton strengthening. It's easy to dismiss one poll, much harder to dismiss a trend.
Meanwhile, a new Washington Post/ABC national poll shows Giuliani's national lead shrinking a bit, while Clinton maintains her double-digit lead over Obama.
The New York Times’ Nagourney makes the case for why Iowa and New Hampshire voters are much more sophisticated on the issues than your average voter.
The
New York Times says the White House “is closing in on a nominee to replace Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, with former Solicitor General Theodore B. Olson considered one of the leading candidates, administration and Congressional officials said Tuesday. Reports of Mr. Olson’s candidacy suggested that President Bush, in choosing the third attorney general of his presidency, might defy calls from Democrats and choose another Republican who is considered a staunch partisan to lead the Justice Department. Mr. Gonzales is departing after being repeatedly accused of allowing political loyalties to blind him to independently enforcing the law.”
Larry’s Craig will have his case heard on September 26 to withdraw his guilty plea after a sex sting in a Minneapolis airport bathroom. “A spokesman for Craig said the Idaho Republican is unlikely to try to finish his third term unless a court moves quickly to overturn his conviction,” per the
AP.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
On a day when most presidential candidates resisted the urge to play campaign politics, Fred Thompson's campaign lashed out against Mitt Romney, in reaction to a Washington Post article that found links between an anti-Thompson Web site and a Romney political consultant. According to the story, the site PhoneyFred.org -- which was taken down soon after the Post called the Romney campaign inquiring about its origins -- referred to Thompson as "Fancy Fred, Five O'clock Fred, Flip-Flop Fred, McCain Fred, Moron Fred, Playboy Fred, Pro-Choice Fred, Son-of-a-Fred and Trial Lawyer Fred."
The Post also described a picture of Thompson in a frilly outfit featured on the site's front page as "more befitting a Gilbert and Sullivan production than a presidential candidate."
There was nothing on the Web site to indicate who created it, but the Post found links between the site and "Under the Power Lines," a site belonging to Romney's lead consultant in South Carolina, Warren J. Tompkins. During the 2000 presidential elections, Tompkins served as Bush's chief strategist in South Carolina, and he's widely rumored to have been the mastermind behind a series of attacks on John McCain in the state following the Arizona senator's victory in the New Hampshire primary.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
NEW YORK -- Before Clinton headed to Washington for the Petraeus-Crocker Senate Armed Services Committee hearing this afternoon, she spent her morning at the Sept. 11 memorial ceremony near Ground Zero in New York. She released a statement that focused, in part, on rescue workers who became sick after 9/11.
“Countless New Yorkers and others continue to experience health problems as a result of the toxic cloud of chemicals and debris that blanketed streets and poisoned lungs,” Clinton said in the statement. “Many are sick. Some have died. We must never forget the sacrifice of those who served at Ground Zero and Fresh Kills in the rescue and recovery -- and we must honor their sacrifice by helping all those who need it.”
She did not make any public remarks, though a series of present and former city and state officials -- including Giuliani -- did address the crowd of about 1,000, which included family and friends of victims, who stood under gray skies, intermittent showers and driving winds. Some in the audience wore yellow-and-white ribbons and carried bouquets of flowers. About two-dozen people held signs and pictures of loved ones throughout much of the nearly four-hour ceremony.
From NBC’s Andrew Merten
GOP presidential hopeful Ron Paul touted his non-interventionist prescription for US foreign policy at Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies in DC. There, he reiterated his opposition to the Iraq war -- which often makes him sound more like a Democrat than one of his GOP rivals.
Paul distinguished his policy of non-intervention from isolationism, explaining that he still sees a benefit in doing business with foreign countries -- provided currency manipulation does not create an unfair relationship. He added, “Non-intervention is better than assuming this moral superiority.” He went on to talk about today's anniversary. “We don’t understand 9/11,” he said, adding that he believes American intervention in the Middle East over the past 50 years was a “major participant” in fueling the attacks of six years ago.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
BOSTON --
Romney commemorated the sixth anniversary of 9/11 by laying a wreath on the memorial located within the Boston Public Garden that honors the state residents who were killed in the attacks. Romney laid low for the day -- including at the 8:30 am ET wreath-laying. He was staffed by just one campaign hand, and about a third of the other dozen or so attendees were photographers. An official campaign photo from the morning now tops his Web site. While the campaign did notify the press about the former governor's morning whereabouts, representatives explained that Romney wanted to keep interest in the event at a minimum and didn't want much of an audience.
Later in the morning, the campaign issued this statement from Romney: "In the years since 9/11, the spreading evil of radical Jihad has been visited on other cities around the world. Yet our resolve remains strong."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew BergerNEW YORK --
Giuliani's much anticipated appearance today at the Sept. 11 memorial came and went with little political intrigue. Giuliani, who had been criticized by some for speaking at the event while campaigning for president, spoke briefly of the city's strength and resilience after the attacks. "It was a day with no answers, but with an unending line of people who came forward to help one another," he said before reading a passage from Holocaust survivor Elie Wiesel.
Giuliani spoke at 9:59 am ET, moments after three bells were rung, signifying the collapse of the World Trade Center's South tower. Current New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine also spoke. In a break from tradition, the ceremony was held adjacent to the footprint of the Twin Towers and people involved in the rescue efforts read the names of the victims.
Giuliani was one of few to speak without the assistance of a uniformed official, who held umbrellas for Spitzer and many of those reading names. Giuliani received a smattering of applause as he exited the stage.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani’s support is tenuous and declining, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll out this morning. While the former New York City mayor still leads in the poll, 27% to 22% over Fred Thompson, it marks the first time his support has dipped below 30% in the poll -- a trend which has been seen in other surveys in the past month. Giuliani's support has declined as Thompson has taken up some of the political oxygen, but it also appears Giuliani’s experience as mayor of a large city is not necessarily “the right kind of experience for becoming president of the United States.” Only about half of those surveyed say it is compared with about 80% who believe being a senator or governor is the right experience.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Does anyone else think that Fred Thompson's statement in South Carolina yesterday -- that "we've got due process to go through" in dealing with Osama bin Laden -- sounds a lot like what Howard Dean said back in 2003 about the Al Qaeda leader?
In December 2003, Dean told the Concord Monitor: "I still have this old-fashioned notion that even with people like Osama, who is very likely to be found guilty, we should do our best not to, in positions of executive power, not to prejudge jury trials."
Dean later said he supported the death penalty for bin Laden, but his Democratic rivals pounced on his comment. "If Howard Dean is unsure about Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, the American people are going to be very unsure they have the confidence they need to make Howard Dean their president," Joe Lieberman said back then.
Once the Petraeus and 9/11 anniversary news subsides, will we see Thompson's GOP rivals go after him the way the Dems went after Dean?
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** 9/11 Remembrances Take Back Seat To 9/11 Politics: Since that tragic day exactly six years ago, 9/11 and the run-up to the anniversary have served as a time for politics to take -- sometimes ever so slightly -- a backseat to remembrances. But this 9/11 is a bit different, thanks to the Petraeus report and the fact that the GOP front-runner is the front-runner because of 9/11. Politics takes a break today -- but only for a few hours. That's what happens when the anniversary takes place in the heat of a campaign and a major policy debate. Today, President Bush has already attended a service of prayer and remembrance and has participated in a moment of silence on the White House’s South Lawn. Hillary Clinton also took part in a commemoration ceremony in New York, and Romney attended a wreath-laying ceremony in Boston.
*** Rudy In The Spotlight: Yet perhaps no one will be in the spotlight more than the man who earned the nickname “America’s Mayor” after the 9/11 attacks -- but who also has come under plenty of criticism for his actions before and after that day: Rudy Giuliani. This morning, he speaks at a 9/11 memorial event at Ground Zero. Despite receiving some negative comments for mixing the remembrance of the attacks while running for president, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds that a whopping 92% of respondents believe that it’s appropriate for Giuliani to attend these memorial services. (Similarly, 85% say it’s appropriate for Clinton to attend them as well.) In addition, the poll shows that 60% think that Giuliani should be able to refer to his role in the 9/11 attacks to demonstrate his qualifications for president. Yet a smaller percentage -- 51% -- say that his experience makes him more qualified to handle terrorism as president; 48% say it doesn’t make him more qualified.
*** Mission Accomplished? Today’s 9/11 anniversary is also Day Two of Petraeus’ and Crocker’s testimony on Capitol Hill. Yesterday, as liberal columnist EJ Dionne writes this morning, the pair’s assessment of the surge seemed to provide the White House with what it wanted all along: more time. Today, Petraeus and Crocker go before the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committees, where they might face more hostile questioning than they received yesterday -- due in large part to the Democratic presidential candidates who sit on those panels. Biden chairs Foreign Relations, which also includes Dodd and Obama. And Clinton and McCain serve on Armed Services.
*** MoveOn, MoveOn -- These Aren’t The Droids You’re Looking For: So who was testifying yesterday on Capitol Hill? Petraeus and Crocker? Or MoveOn’s Eli Pariser? The GOP lawmakers found their talking points, as it seemed two minutes didn't go by without a Republican lawmaker mentioning the print MoveOn ad attacking Petraeus. While congressional Democrats were clearly uncomfortable defending MoveOn, one can't help but wonder if the GOP doth protest too much. The party's message machine was so focused on MoveOn that they didn't actually talk much about what Petraeus said. The attacks on MoveOn’s very low-key newspaper ad begs the question: Did they not want to debate the surge on its merits?
*** Hsu-ing Away A Problem? You've heard of dumping bad news on a Friday evening? Well, the Clinton campaign found an even better time to dump the bad news that it was returning $850,000 raised by Norman Hsu -- the evening before 9/11, which just also happens to coincide with the busiest news day in the Iraq war (at least in terms of Washington coverage) in six months. The campaign may have found as good of a day as they could to bury this story, but they ought to realize this will come back. The next time we'll hear Hsu’s name? In about 20 days when the campaign reports its 3rd quarter fundraising. Docking themselves nearly a $1 million is not good for the bottom line. By the way, did the campaign overlook Hsu's questionable tactics a few months ago because they were so desperate to keep up with Obama's fundraising?
*** Tennessee, We Have A Problem: Yesterday, we said Thompson hadn't yet made a flub like Wes Clark did in 2003 (when he couldn’t answer reporters' questions whether or not he would have voted for the 2002 Iraq war resolution -- a big no-no for someone campaigning as the anti-war general). But now, we're not so sure: Can a Republican presidential candidate really flub what they'd do with Osama, not once (symbolism) but twice (due process)?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Gravel holds a press briefing in New York on foreign policy; McCain begins his “No Surrender” tour in Iowa; and Paul speaks at a foreign policy forum at Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies in DC.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 39 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 56 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 67 days
Countdown to Iowa: 125 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 130 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 147 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 420 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 497 days
The Washington Post: “Army Gen. David H. Petraeus told Congress yesterday that the deployment of 30,000 more troops to Iraq has made enough progress that the additional combat forces can be pulled out by next summer, but he cautioned against ‘rushing to failure’ with a larger and speedier withdrawal… [T]he general's report and troop proposal opened a new phase in the fractious Washington debate over the future of the U.S. venture in Iraq nearly 4 1/2 years after Bush ordered an invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. From this point on, the argument will no longer be about whether to withdraw U.S. troops but about how many to pull out and how quickly.”
EJ Dionne writes, that before Petraeus “began his account of the 'substantial' progress brought about by the troop increase in Iraq, congressional critics of President Bush's policy had come to the depressing conclusion that the surge has done what the administration needed it to do. It has not won the war. It has not achieved reconciliation at the national level in Iraq. But it has bought more political time in Washington, bringing Bush closer than ever to reaching one of his main objectives: keeping large numbers of troops in Iraq beyond Election Day 2008.”
CONTINUED >>
Politics and 9/11, of course, became intertwined not long after the terrorist attacks occurred; in fact, Republicans effectively used their image in their victories in 2002 (think the Georgia Senate race) and 2004 (the GOP convention in New York). But after the bad news in Iraq and the deterioration of the GOP brand in the last two years, Republicans no longer have the advantage when it comes to terrorism. In the October 2002 NBC/WSJ poll -- just before that year’s midterm elections -- Republicans held a 36-point advantage over Democrats on the question of which party would do a better job of dealing with terrorism. In the 2004 December NBC/WSJ survey -- taken after that year’s presidential election -- the GOP had an 18-point advantage. In the most recent NBC/WSJ poll -- conducted in late July -- the Republicans and Democrats had an equal score on that question.
The Concord Monitor reports on the Firefighters union criticism of Giuliani and his role during 9/11. The header: "Firefighters challenge Giuliani image."
The New York Daily News writes up that new USA Today/Gallup poll, which finds that half of Americans “believe 9/11 doesn't make Giuliani any better qualified to lead the war on terror.”
BIDEN: On Iraq: “There is zero evidence of any political accommodation between sectarian forces, and the surge has had no impact on reconciliation.”
CLINTON: The Los Angeles Times reports -- before the announcement by the campaign to dump all of the Hsu-related money (some $850K) -- that "new evidence surfaced that the Clinton camp had dismissed allegations about Hsu made by a Southern California businessman. In an e-mail obtained by The Times, a Clinton campaign staffer told a California Democratic Party official in June that the businessman's concerns were unwarranted. “‘I can tell you with 100 certainty that Norman Hsu is NOT involved in a ponzi scheme,’ wrote Samantha Wolf, who was a campaign finance director for the Western states." He is COMPLETELY legit."
Did the Clinton campaign go too far? One prominent DC attorney thinks so. “Stanley Brand, a former House counsel who often represents legislators in ethics matters, called the Clinton campaign's decision ‘a ground-shifting event,’ though not a step he would have recommended. ‘I understand it's politically driven. They don't want to be tainted,’ he said. ‘But they're going to give back a lot of money if they do this every time there's an allegation against a fundraiser.’”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: A new New York Times/CBS poll finds that some of Giuliani's social positions are still not known by Republicans. "While the poll found that Mr. Giuliani faced some big challenges in winning his party’s nomination, with 31 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters saying he does not share the values of most members of his party, it also suggested that he might be able to win over wary or unconvinced Republicans if he could make the case that he would be the candidate with the best chance of winning the general election."
MCCAIN: Not only does John McCain hope that his journey for his party’s nomination mirrors John Kerry’s in 2004 -- in which the onetime front-runner gets overshadowed by other candidates before winning the nod -- McCain today embarks on his “No Surrender” tour, which just happens to be the name of the Springsteen song Kerry used as his campaign anthem. Over the next week, the tour takes him to Iowa, New Hampshire, and then South Carolina.
CONTINUED >>
The GOP’s swift reaction to Larry Craig “revealed the delicate balance the GOP strikes in dealing with homosexuality,” the
Boston Globe writes. “Opposition to gay marriage … is a key point of connection between Republicans and voters who might otherwise oppose the GOP agenda.” An aide to Craig said, “If his conviction is thrown out,” Craig “will reconsider his decision to resign.”
From NBC's Andrew Merten
Throughout the day, we’ve seen commentary on Gen. Petraeus’ report proceedings from several presidential candidates, Democrat and Republican. But Hillary Clinton, campaigning in Florida, decided not to comment the ongoing testimony until after seeing the general speak in person tomorrow.
“He’ll be before the Armed Services Committee tomorrow afternoon, and I’m going to wait to hear him in person,” she said to a reporter this afternoon while signing autographs and taking photos with adoring senior citizens. Petraeus will report to the Armed Services Committee tomorrow afternoon (of which Clinton and McCain are members), after addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (which includes Biden, Dodd, and Obama) in the morning.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
On his first trip to South Carolina as a presidential candidate, Fred Thompson altered his stump speech a bit, playing to the audience members' hawkish views and getting a very favorable response. Pushing an America-versus-the-world theme, he was more forceful with his Iraq and terrorism language. "I'm reminded of the fact that our people have shed more blood for other people's liberties than any other combination of nations in the history of the world." he said to a standing ovation. "While you're on your feet, let me add that I'm getting a little bit tired of people feeling the necessity for apologizing for the United States of America."
Thompson added that the whole world is watching America, waiting to see if she falters. "We must show the world that we are determined to do whatever is necessary to protect this country and to win in Iraq and the global war," he said. "General Petraeus, of course, is testifying today. He was confirmed unanimously and everybody says he's the greatest thing that has ever happened and he very well may be... Now he's coming back with a report, and it's just like the Democratic leaders can't wait for a report, because it's almost as if they feared good news. And they are competing with one another who can pull up the white flag the first."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Since the hearing on Gen. Petraeus' report began this afternoon, some of the Democratic presidential candidates have issued statements arguing that the so-called surge has failed. By comparison, the GOP candidates (with the exception of Giuliani) have released statements that criticize MoveOn's full-page ad in the New York Times -- but that don't explicitly touch on Petraeus' testimony.
See below for a sampling of the comments...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten
What was billed as a conference call to discuss John Edwards’ new counterterrorism-policy proposal quickly shifted toward the political consequences of today’s Petraeus testimony on Capitol Hill. “For over a year, Sen. Edwards has proposed a plan that would withdraw 40- 50- thousand troops immediately,” said Michael Signer, the campaign's deputy policy adviser for foreign affairs and national security. He added the familiar line, “There’s no military solution; there’s only a political solution.” Signer went on to prescribe three questions in assessing Petraeus’ report today and tomorrow: 1) Has the surge produced progress? 2) If not, when will it? And 3) What is the plan for American soldiers?
Several other of the campaign’s security advisers joined Signer on the call. When asked about the specific numbers of remaining forces Edwards would leave in the region if elected, Signer said that exact numbers had not yet been formulated. Gordon Adams, a professor of international affairs at American University and a former member of the Clinton Administration, chimed in: “What we really talked about was how important it was to have quick reaction capability -- to have the ability to be concerned about all the issues that Iraq brings with its location between Turkey, Syria, and Iran.” But he added, “We did not get down then to capabilities, talking about numbers of soldiers.”
The advisers were also asked about MoveOn’s full-page ad in today’s New York Times, which has the headline: “General Petraeus or General Betray Us?” and which suggests that he is “cooking the books for the White House." But all five participants on the call said that they had not yet seen the ad and declined to comment.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Earlier this morning, First Read briefly recapped last night's Univision debate, the first presidential debate ever broadcast in Spanish. Here are some additional thoughts...
IRAQ.
On Iraq, all of the candidates called for a troop withdrawal -- with
Kucinich being the first, and he received a large applause from the audience.
Obama, who spoke next, said he (like Kucinich) as against the war from the beginning. Although Kucinich asked for some time to respond, the moderators did not oblige. In fact, the moderators did not allow any time for the candidates to engage one another and debate. Instead, each candidate had time to simply answer his or her question and move on.
Richardson restated that his plan differs from those of
Clinton, Obama, and
Edwards -- since he says no residual troops should be left in Iraq following a withdrawal. "I would bring them all home, everyone of them," the New Mexico governor said. "There is a fundamental difference that I raised in the last debate with Senator Obama, Senator Clinton, Senator Edwards. Under their plans, under their Web sites, they leave either 25- or 50-, or 75-thousand troops behind. I would bring them all home within a period of time of six to eight months because our troops have become targets."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The Omaha Press Club room Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) used to announce his retirement was decorated with caricatures of prominent figures, including one of fellow famous Nebraskan Johnny Carson and one of himself. As expected, he formally announced his plans. "I'm here with my family this morning to announce I will not seek a third term in the United States Senate nor do I intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008," he said.
But Hagel was not expecting a particular ominous sign to occur during his announcement. While speaking about his work in the Senate, one of the caricatures came tumbling down, missing Hagel but landing with a thump on the ground.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) has filed papers to withdraw his guilty plea following a sex sting in a Minneapolis airport bathroom.
"[A] spokesman for the agency that operates the airport says Craig's plea has been entered and accepted,” the AP reports. But he says, "From our standpoint, this is already a done deal."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** So Now It’s Wait Until March? While it might not have the national buzz of Britney at the VMAs (or the altercation there between Tommy Lee and Kid Rock), Washington finally gets the moment it has been waiting for: General Petreaus’ report on Iraq. While Petraeus will recommend withdrawing about 4,000 troops by December and getting down to the pre-surge troop level by next August, he will also say -- per today’s New York Times -- what to do after that shouldn’t be decided for another six months (in March). Who does the public trust more with resolving the Iraq war? Sixty-eight percent say military commanders. Twenty-one percent say Congress. Five percent say the Bush Administration. Any wonder why the Administration is happy that Petraeus is getting all of the attention? And any wonder why some Democrats are trying to tie Petraeus to Bush? Will the public ultimately view Petraeus as a Bush surrogate or a military surrogate?
 |
|
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the Petraeus Iraq report and the 6th anniversry of 9/11.
***
The Risk For The Left: Other than drowning our email inboxes with releases, the thing to watch with the presidentials this week is what they latch on to from the Petraeus report. All are likely to find something to back up their own assessment of Iraq. The risk, politically, is on left because the anti-war wing of the party seems ready to simply explode; they are not happy with the compromise chatter coming from congressional Democrats (see today's MoveOn full-page ad in the New York Times). Edwards has tried to give voice to these folks. But what about Clinton and Obama? Will the two sit back and let Edwards snag the angry anti-war voters? Obama's camp is billing a Wednesday address in Iowa on Iraq as a major speech. As for President Bush, this is the week he proves that he's NOT a lame duck. He's anything but in a time of war.
***
Losing One Chuck (Hagel) Makes Another Chuck (Schumer) Happy: At a press conference in Omaha today, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) will announce that he will not seek another term next year, nor will he -- as expected -- run for the White House. Believe it or not, Democrats have two decent recruits for this seat, including former Sen. Bob Kerrey (the other is the Omaha mayor). Obviously, Kerrey's potential candidacy gives the race a bit of a celebrity feel (is he REALLY read to move back to Nebraska?). Counting Nebraska, Democrats will have at least SIX excellent pick-up opportunities next year (in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia are the others), compared with just ONE for the Republicans (Louisiana). Could Democrats expand their current narrow 51-49 majority to a 54-46 or 55-45 one after next year?
“Party Like It’s 1993…”: Over the weekend, Edwards blasted Clinton on health care. It's worth noting that both Obama and Edwards have been attempting to single out Clinton's health-care reform failure from 1993. Clearly, both camps believe this issue undermines the "experience" card that Clinton, to date, has so effectively played. With Clinton expected to unveil the rest of her health-care plan shortly, this '93 line of attack should get more attention in the weeks to come.
*** A Smooth Launch? Fred Thompson takes his announcement tour to South Carolina today, after already visiting Iowa and New Hampshire. Frankly, no state may be more important to Thompson than South Carolina, so extra scrutiny of the enthusiasm quotient is deserved. So how did his last few days go? Well, on Friday, he made this un-Reagan-like statement about the Bin Laden videotape: “Bin Laden is more symbolism than anything else.” After GOP rivals McCain and Romney issued statements saying, respectively, that “My presidency will be Al Qaeda's worst nightmare" and "Osama Bin Laden is the face of evil,” Thompson released a statement later that night calling for Bin Laden “to be caught and killed.” Uh, oh. And on Sunday, a report came out that Thompson, in 1992, billed about three hours for his law firm’s client who was representing two Libyan intelligence officials charged in the Pan Am 103 bombing. The good news? There was no Wesley Clark flub. The bad news? It still wasn't a smooth launch.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton is in Boca Raton, FL, where she will discuss her agenda for seniors; Dodd appears on both CNN’s Situation Room and MSNBC’s Hardball; McCain raises money in Virginia; and Richardson raises money in Colorado and California.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 40 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 57 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 68 days
Countdown to Iowa: 126 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 131 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 148 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 421 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 498 days
Per NBC’s Mike Viqueira, Petraeus and Crocker will testify before the joint House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees at a hearing beginning at 12:30 pm. There will be a total of 107 members (!) combined at this hearing, including GOP presidential candidates Hunter, Paul, and Tancredo. The chairs and ranking members (Democrats Skelton and Lantos and Republicans Hunter and Ros-Lehtinen) will give five-minute opening statements, followed by opening statements from Petraeus and Crocker. Then all the members will be allowed five minutes to question the pair.
The
New York Times: “General Petraeus … has informed President Bush that troop cuts may begin in mid-December, with the withdrawal of one of the 20 American combat brigades in Iraq, about 4,000 troops. By August, the American force in Iraq would be down to 15 combat brigades, the force level before Mr. Bush’s troop reinforcement plan. The precise timing of such reductions, which would leave about 130,000 troops in Iraq, could vary, depending on conditions in the country. But the general has also said that it is too soon to present recommendations on reducing American forces below that level because the situation in Iraq is in flux. He has suggested that he wait until March to outline proposals on that question.”
CONTINUED >>
Per NBC's Lauren Appelbaum, in the first presidential debate ever broadcast in Spanish, the issues were not solely focused on Hispanic areas -- as candidates also answered questions on troop withdrawal in Iraq, health care, and education, in addition to questions on immigration and relations with Latin America.
The debate was broadcast on Univision, the nation's largest Spanish-language network. Anchors Jorge Ramos and Maria Elena Salinas asked candidates questions in Spanish, which were then translated into English. Each candidate spoke in English -- regardless whether the presidential hopeful speaks Spanish, although Dodd and Richardson (both who are fluent in the language) got in a few lines in Spanish before the moderator reprimanded them. All of the answers were simultaneously translated into Spanish for the Univision audience. English closed captioning enabled English viewers to understand the debate.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: She “rallied with rescue workers yesterday in support of a bipartisan bill to expand medical monitoring and treatment for New Yorkers exposed to the filthy Ground Zero air after the 9/11 attacks,” the
New York Post reports.
On Saturday, the
Washington Post took an extensive look at the Clintons' ties to the Indian-American community, and how the issue of outsourcing has helped Clinton politically with Indian-Americans -- but has caused her some problems in her courtship of labor.
Also over the weekend, the New York Times did its version of the "who is Norman Hsu" story. Reading it, one gets the sense that many Democratic campaigns are going to find more tainted money. The big question: How many donations did others make to candidates that Hsu repaid? And campaign finance investigations linger for months, if not years, though voters usually don't seem to care as much as the media.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Over the weekend,
Gail Collins gave the Giuliani camp a taste of the negative type of coverage it could get this 9/11 anniversary week.
NBC's Chuck Todd took a look at the implications for Giuliani on the potential Bush appointment of Ted Olsen as attorney general.
Giuliani's comment that illegal immigration is not a crime -- but a misdemeanor -- got lots of Drudge play. Will it hurt with the GOP grass roots? Romney and Thompson hope so.
Giuliani told a Florida public affairs program that he opposed efforts to impeach Bill Clinton in 1998. "I didn't think ultimately Bill Clinton should have been impeached," Giuliani told Political Connections, a Bay News 9 program taped Friday. But Giuliani did criticize the Clinton administration for "gutting our military," saying it was the former president's "biggest mistake."
CONTINUED >>
The
Washington Post checks in on the campaign to woo to Gore. “Al Gore's pronouncement that he is likely to endorse one of the Democratic candidates for president before the primary season is over has set off a slew of speculation about who his choice might be. Truth is, the courting of the ‘Goreacle’ began many months ago. Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Gore huddled in Nashville in December, and Gore has also met with former senator John Edwards (N.C.). Gore and Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.) conferred as recently as last week. Not surprisingly, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) has not met with Gore. Neither has Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (Del.) nor New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The falling out between Gore and the Clintons has become the stuff of political legend.”
Keep an eye on the indies and Republicans who will vote in the Democratic primary. Here's an ex-Reagan voter explains why she’s casting a Dem ballot in the primary.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Quick Saturday post just to see if you folks are paying attention to anything NON-Iraq. Frankly, many of us are not. But what does it say about the team Giuliani is surrounding himself with if the second major appointment Pres. Bush makes these last six months is somebody who endorsed the former New York City mayor?
According to the Washington Post, former Solicitor General Ted Olsen is viewed as the leading candidate to become the nation's new Attorney General. Why Olsen? His reputation is top-notch and he should have little problem getting through the confirmation process. Oh, and conservatives love Olsen.
Earlier this year, Giuliani lost his chief Iowa supporter, former Congressman Jim Nussle, when Bush named him the nation's Budget Dir. He was just confirmed into the post last week.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-TreworgyOn the road between Sioux City and Mason City, IA,
Thompson made an unexpected stopover at Bob's Drive In in Le Mars, the self-billed "ice cream capital of the world." Le Mars, in fact, is the headquarters of Wells Blue Bunny Ice Cream, and nearly all of the diners at Bob's were Blue Bunny employees. Yet despite spending nearly 30 minutes there, walking through Bob's and shaking hands with numerous diners, Thompson re-boarded the bus -- without trying any of the town's specialties. He didn't even sit and eat one of the "Bob Dogs" with any of the diners. Afterwards a campaign spokesman jokingly justified Thompson's decision not to eat by pointing to Thompson's well-publicized diet and workout regimen.
From NBC's Samantha MehrotraInstead of the campaign trail,
Biden was in Iraq yesterday to assess the progress made on political and military benchmarks. Speaking to reporters in Ramadi, the senator discussed his ongoing concerns about the possibility of achieving stability in the country. “Unless the central government is able to actually begin to work with the promises, there is not a whole lot of prospect... I doubt that the unity at a federal level is likely to occur in the near term.”
“I’m hoping to … make it clear that the patience of the American people is running very thin," he added. "Although terrorism is an international problem, Iraqi unity is an Iraqi problem.” Despite these problems however, Biden said progress is being made locally and that the United States military and tribal leaders are making strides against Al Qaeda.
Regarding the presidential campaign, Biden made it clear during his visit today that he is the most informed candidate when it comes to Iraq. When asked why he decided to come to Ramadi, the senator said: “This is my ninth trip. I’ve been here more than the president and more than most of my colleagues. I come about every six months.”
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Contrast these two reactions today to Bin Laden's videotape...
McCain, per a statement: "The release of the purported bin Laden video starkly reminds us that there is no greater responsibility for a president than to protect America from attack and to command our military forces in a time of war against a barbaric enemy -- an enemy plotting every day to kill Americans. Osama bin Laden and his henchmen must be hunted down -- and as president, I will... My presidency will be al Qaeda's worst nightmare."
And Thompson, per the AP: "Bin Laden is more symbolism than anything else," he said. "I think it demonstrates to people once again that we're in a global war."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
On the second day of Fred Thompson's official campaign, the Republican presidential hopeful held his first town hall -- but with auditorium seating instead of the audience-friendly round stage many candidates have used. The question-and-answer session forced Thompson to address issues, including healthcare, homosexuality, and energy independence. A room at the Sioux City, Iowa, convention center was filled with about 150 to 175 people. There were about 100 seats set up and some stood in doorways.
Thompson got a wide range of questions, including one from a man in the audience who asked what "society's position should be on deviances including homosexuality." Thompson answered by saying the federal government should "show no favor for any particular class of citizen" and "not set aside categories for special treatments."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Per his campaign, Mike Huckabee today sent a letter to Fred Thompson, inviting the former Tennessee senator to debate. "I am aware of your comments on Fox News that you would like to participate in a series of Lincoln-Douglas styled debates. I would like to officially accept your offer," Huckabee says in the letter. "I agree that what is needed is a real discussion by the candidates about their vision for the future of our country."
"Senator, let's lead by example and get the ball rolling," Huckabee adds.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Speaking days before the sixth anniversary of Sept. 11, John Edwards gave a policy speech on terrorism and counterterrorism today in New York City, just blocks from Ground Zero. He used the podium to take several jabs at the current administration and GOP presidential frontrunners -- as well as some subtler criticisms of those in the Democratic field -- and also rolled out his plan for a multilateral international organization for combating terrorism.
The former senator began by blasting the Bush Administration’s initial waging and subsequent management of the Iraq war, saying the president used the 9/11 attacks “to justify a preconceived war against a nation he now admits had no ties to al-Qaeda,” adding, “George Bush literally gave us his father’s war, but without his fathers allies or his father’s sense of decency.” But while Edwards sometimes makes a point to acknowledge and apologize for his yes-vote for the original authorization of the war, he made no mention of it today.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) will be holding a press conference on Monday at the Omaha Press Club to discuss his political future.
Note: Several months ago, Hagel held a similar press conference, in which he was expected to discuss a possible presidential bid. But, to the disappointment of many reporters who traveled to Nebraska for that, he didn't make any news.
This time, it's expected he'll discuss whether or not he seeks another Senate term. He is up for re-election next year.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A couple of weeks ago, we wondered if the economy would start becoming a bigger issue in the presidential election -- and whether that would become a problem for Republicans.
Today, the top Democratic candidates are jumping all over a new jobs report showing that 4,000 jobs were lost in August -- the first job drop in four years. Clinton was the first out with a statement: “Alongside continued weakness in wages, healthcare and housing, today’s disappointing jobs number is only the most recent indication that the Bush Administration’s simplistic supply-side economic strategy is not working for working Americans."
This came Obama: “The Administration’s failure to lead while thousands of Americans found themselves in danger of losing their homes is now affecting the broader economy, as thousands of workers lost their jobs this month for the first time in four years."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Conservative blogger Dean Barnett asks this interesting question in the Weekly Standard: Why isn't there a conservative version of liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas or his blog Daily Kos -- at least in terms of influence and power?
Our quick answers to this question: 1) because the Republican Party is typically a top-down organization, which isn't necessarily a conducive environment for an uncontrollable blogger like Kos; and 2) the GOP has controlled the White House in these last six-plus years, and folks like Kos sprouted when the Democrats were out of power -- much like conservative radio flourishing during the Clinton years.
Blogger David Weigel seems to agree with the top-down answer. What are your thoughts?
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Two days before the Democratic Univision forum in Miami -- and a day after a new poll showed Obama more competitive than Clinton in Colorado (although within the margin of error) -- the Obama campaign will hold a conference call with reporters later today to announce the endorsement of former Denver Mayor Federico Pena, who served as secretary of Energy and Transportation in Bill Clinton's Administration.
To the best of our knowledge, this is Obama's biggest Hispanic endorsement (outside of those he's won in his home state of Illinois). So far, Clinton has been viewed as having the big lead among Hispanics in the race for the Democratic nomination.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Oprah Effect: Believe it or not, the Democratic presidential contenders have taken a backseat this week to the Republicans -- a rare occurrence this year. But that could change tomorrow with the Oprah-Obama extravaganza fundraiser in California. Everyone's wondering whether Oprah can do for a politician what she's done for authors. If she becomes as active on the campaign trail as is being speculated, then Obama may have found his secret weapon to target working-class women, which has become the heart and soul of Clinton's support. Then again, there's a risk -- not for Obama, but for Oprah. After all, she has plenty of viewers who are Republicans or who support Clinton. Michael Jordan was credited with saying that he steered clear of politics because "Republicans buy sneakers, too."
*** What Happens When There Is Too Much “Change”?: Now Richardson is up with his "change and experience" TV ad, which states: “Now we need experience and change. Bill Richardson offers both.” With it, he joins Obama’s and Clinton’s own “change” ads. Does this play right into Clinton's hands? The more every Democratic candidate claims the change mantle, does the primary then become a referendum on experience?
*** The Good And The Bad: Thompson today hits the second leg of his announcement tour, which takes him to Sioux City and Mason City, IA. How did Day One go? The good: He got tons of news coverage (on TV and in print), and his campaign says it has raised more than $350,000 since Wednesday. The not-so good: The Des Moines Register’s David Yepsen called his Des Moines speech “underwhelming”; the New York Times front-pages that some of Thompson’s views (on campaign finance reform, tort reform, and affirmative action) don’t necessarily make him the heir to Reagan; and his crowds weren’t all that impressive. As one smart analyst told First Read yesterday, "Two hundred people in Des Moines is barely the size of an Obama overflow room in Story County." This was always the danger of the late entry: Everything about the Thompson trip is under the microscope.
*** All About Rudy: While this week was all about Thompson, next week will be all about Giuliani. The 9/11 anniversary will bring Rudy an opportunity to brandish his best credential. Of course, next week could also bring renewed scrutiny of Giuliani's 9/11 record. No doubt a news organization or two will have a story or two examining that record – which could either be a big help or a problem. Either way, next week is Rudy's week.
*** Speaking Of 9/11…: A few days before its anniversary, and just a day after reports that Osama bin Laden will give a statement on it, Edwards will give a major a counterterrorism speech today in New York. He will be introduced by 9/11 widow and activist Kristen Breitweiser. In the speech, per the campaign, Edwards will propose creating a modern-day equivalent of NATO for terrorism: the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Treaty Organization (CITO). “Every nation has an interest in shutting down terrorism,” Edwards will say. “CITO will create connections between a wide range of nations on terrorism and intelligence, including countries on all continents, including Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. New connections between previously separate nations will be forged, creating new possibilities.”
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Clinton speaks at the New Jersey Democratic Party's annual conference and then addresses the AARP's "Life @ 50+" event in Boston; Huckabee, in New Hampshire, participates in SEIU’s “Walk a Day in Their Shoes” program and then delivers remarks at the AARP conference in Boston; McCain raises money in California; Obama hits a “Woman for Obama” luncheon in San Francisco and then heads to Portland for fundraiser; and Romney campaigns in New Hampshire.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 43 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 60 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 71 days
Countdown to Iowa: 129 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 134 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 151 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 424 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 501 days
The campaign is trying to beat back this notion that there's an enthusiasm gap. Its e-campaign director sent out a memo last night claiming:
-- Since 12:01 am last night, over 150,000 unique visitors have viewed its website. Some points of comparison: Mitt Romney's website registered 124,000 visitors in July; Rudy Giuliani's website registered 116,000 visitors over the same 31 day period; John McCain's website registered 104,000 visitors in July
-- Also, since 12:01 am last night, over 3000 donors have donated online
-- Lastly, 16,000 new "Friends of Fred" have signed up to volunteer for Fred's campaign."
On "GMA" this morning, Thompson didn't commit any news, but he seemed to take a shot at Romney when asked if the former Massachusetts governor was running TV ads showing him running as a way to compare his health and vigor to Thompson. Thompson responded that he'd seen these Romney ads and wondered, "What's he running from?" Thompson was very deliberative in the interview, the same Thompson we've become familiar with.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times front-pages, “Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, has told President Bush that he wants to maintain heightened troop levels in Iraq well into next year to reduce the risk of military setbacks, but could accept the pullback of roughly 4,000 troops beginning in January, in part to assuage critics in Congress, according to senior administration and military officials.”
The Washington Post: “Army Gen. David H. Petraeus has indicated a willingness to consider a drawdown of one brigade of between 3,500 and 4,500 U.S. troops from Iraq early next year, with more to follow over the next months based on conditions on the ground, according to a senior U.S. official.”
Here’s a Q&A Petraeus did with the Boston Globe.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Norman Hsu was arrested yesterday -- taking a train in Colorado, of all places. The Los Angeles Times: “Hsu, 56, was on an eastbound Amtrak train about noon when he fell ill, and Amtrak personnel took him to St. Mary's Hospital in Grand Junction, Colo., a hospital spokesman said. There, he was arrested by the FBI a few hours later on a federal charge of unlawful flight to avoid prosecution. He was expected to appear before a federal magistrate-judge as early as this morning, pending his likely extradition back to California.”
More bad news? With Clinton in New Jersey today, this New York Daily News headline will loom: “Hillary campaign honcho among 11 busted in N.J. sting.” From the article: “Passaic Mayor Sammy Rivera, 60, allegedly accepted $5,000 at a secret restaurant meet, offering to use his influence to name the dummy company Passaic's official insurance broker. Rivera, a former cop with a checkered history, was also a featured member of Clinton's long list of campaign endorsements. He was on Clinton's Mayor's Council and her National Hispanic Leadership Council.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Giuliani picked up the endorsement of former Illinois Gov. Jim Thompson (R) Thursday. The Daily Herald suggests the endorsement will help Giuliani increase his campaign cash in Illinois, where he has raised less than Romney and McCain.
HUCKABEE: Today, the chattering class's favorite dark horse GOP candidate, Mike Huckabee, does his turn walking a day in the shoes of an SEIU worker. What's remarkable about this event? All of the Democrats have done it, but Huckabee's the only Republican to do so. In fact, to date, Huckabee's the only Republican to nab a union endorsement (the machinists endorsed him in the GOP primary, while endorsing Clinton in the Dem primary). Is there any other self-described conservative candidate doing more to show crossover appeal than Huckabee? Imagine if Huckabee is on the national ticket and SEIU's Andy Stern has nothing but nice things to say about him?
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The group of Democrats trying to beat back the GOP attempt to pass a ballot initiative to split up California's 55 electoral votes by congressional district is up with two new radio ads. From one of the ads: "Now, after California’s been shortchanged for years, special interests have cooked up a new scheme to reduce our influence even further -- trying to pass an initiative carving up California’s electoral votes in the presidential election. If it passes, experts say we’ll be left with less influence than states like New York, Texas, Ohio, Florida, and Illinois."
New York Mayor Bloomberg posted this on his Web site: "It's time for something real… The question should not be about politics, but about leadership. Not who is the best candidate, but who will be the best President.” He also announced he has MySpace and Facebook pages. Even though this has “pumped new life into speculation over Bloomberg's plans,” the New York Daily News writes, this is really about having an influence on the “national debate.” “More people will pay attention if the question about his future is an open-ended one, insiders say.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Recognizing "it all begins in Iowa," Fred Thompson officially began his campaign for president in Des Moines. Thompson told the audience the "preseason is over" and promised to make America a "stronger, more prosperous nation." Like the rest of the candidates, he promised change, saying he is not a career politician. In fact, he promised to be the president "who will blow the whistle on this lack of responsibility" in the current government. "We still get our basic rights from God and not from government," he said.
Thompson began, talking of terrorism. "We are living in an era now of the suitcase bomb," he said. "We are living in an era now of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, where a small amount of the wrong kind of material getting in the wrong hands can do destruction that we never though possible. They are more likely than ever to fall in the hands of our worst enemy. Radical Islam has declared war on us."
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From NBC’s Andrew Merten
Speaking to reporters in St. Paul, Minn., this afternoon,
Giuliani made a point to appear unfazed by
Fred Thompson’s official entrance into the GOP nomination run. “The race hasn’t changed at all -- it’s exactly the same campaign that it was a week ago,” he said, adding, “I don’t run against any other Republican; I run against Democrats.” He went on to tout his organization as the “most issues-oriented campaign of any side,” calling on his “Twelve Commitments” as an example.
Rudy also alleged that he is the most competitive general election candidate in the Republican field, citing national polls that show him competing against
Clinton or
Obama. “I’m the only Republican candidate that has a chance at winning the states that were previously Democratic states,” he said, continuing: “If I’m nominated here in Minnesota next year, I’ll walk out of here being able to campaign in virtually 50 states. If somebody else is nominated, they’ll walk out of here being able to campaign in 20 or 25 states.”
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
...and he doesn't mince his words. On the very day Thompson begins his official announcement tour, former spokesman Jim Mills, who left the campaign earlier in the week, joked about his short-lived experience there: "About the only people who haven't worked in the Thompson press shop this summer are Larry Craig and that woman astronaut who wore those diapers cross country."
More from Mills, who previously was FOX's chief congressional producer. "I am currently checking in with my Catholic friends to see if they can recommend any local priests who still perform exorcisms." Our perspective here is that Mills -- through the humor -- is trying to show that he's bloodied but not bowed after leaving the campaign.
NBC News also has learned that Thompson communications adviser Mark Corallo has left the campaign.
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mike Viqueira
It's clear now that Democratic leaders on both sides of the Capitol are moving towards dropping their insistence on a end date deadline for completing troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Senate leaders are likely to move a defense measure on the week of the 17th that essentially calls for a withdrawal to begin later this year, but drops language that would require completion by April 30, 2008. "We are not backing off anything," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters today, while adding in the next breath that "we need 60 votes" -- a threshold that they have been repeatedly unable to meet this year on war votes. "There is nothing off the table on Iraq," he said.
Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi is signaling that she, too, will allow votes on a similar measure in the House by the end of the month, as well as a measure that would require the Bush Administration to come forward with a redeployment plan within 60 days, according to a House leadership source.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
Yesterday, we noted that Clinton and Obama were up with new TV ads touting their ability to be "change" candidates. Now Bill Richardson has gotten into the act with a new ad in Iowa that begins: "George Bush has made a mess of almost everything. Now we need experience and change. Bill Richardson offers both."
Sound familiar? Clinton's new TV ad goes, "If we have the conviction, she has the experience. If we're ready for change, she's ready to lead." Also, over the Labor Day weekend, she said, "I know some people think you have to choose between change and experience. Well, with me, you don't have to choose."
Of course, the first person who actually used that last line was ... Richardson. At last month's Democratic debate in Iowa, Richardson said, "You know, I think that Senator Obama does represent change. Senator Clinton has experience. Change and experience. With me you get both."
Is the new ad a dig at Clinton stealing Richardson's line? "This is an ad that's been in the production works for a while," Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds tells First Read. "The timing is just serendipity." More from Reynolds: "The goal of the ad is that Gov. Richardson is the only one who brings both change and experience."
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
The AP reports today, "Sen. Larry Craig has all but dropped any notion of trying to complete his term, and is focused on helping Idaho send a new senator to Washington within a few weeks, his top spokesman said Thursday."
VIDEO: NBC's Mike Viqueira reports on Sen. Craig's latest decision.
Craig spokesman Dan Whiting said in a statement that this isn't new. "This is nothing new -- all along we have said that he expects to resign on September 30th and he and the staff are working towards that end to ensure the transition is as smooth as possible for Idaho. Tuesday night I stated that he simply left a very, very small door slightly ajar."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
This is interesting: Rush Limbaugh is bothered by Thompson doing Leno for his announcement.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Fred Thompson's official announcement.
Limbaugh said yesterday, "... I'm not crazy about presidential candidates announcing their candidacy on these late-night shows, Leno or Letterman. I know why they're doing it... The one thing about it that bothers me -- and I'm not rooted in fuddy-duddiness here, although it may sound like it to some of you but -- is I think the office of the presidency has a certain stature, and I don't like to see it linked or tied to pop culture. Pop culture is by definition one of the low common denominators of our society."
More: "You know damn well that presidents don't go on The Tonight Show. So why should they as candidates? When you link the stature of that office to the pop culture, I don't think the damage is instantaneous, but it's just a slow erosion of the stature of the office. It's just my instinct here. It could be anybody. This is not directed at Fred Thompson."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Bill (Lacy) and Fred’s Excellent Adventure: More than 90 days have passed since Fred Thompson established his "testing the waters" committee. And in those three months, nothing seemed to go right for the budding campaign. Critics panned Thompson’s speeches; key staffers departed; the newspapers uncovered that he once lobbied for a pro-choice group (and the campaign flopped on the initial response to those stories); wife Jeri became a household name (and not necessarily in a good way); and everyone wondered out loud: “When is he going to in?” Well, he answered that last night on Leno, when he officially declared his candidacy. And his official announcement tour -- which begins today in Iowa and also includes a new campaign video -- allows him to start over and earn some positive press. It’s his time to shine, and if there was ever an opening for someone to virtually come out of nowhere and win the GOP nod, this is it. But those rough three months have left him with little margin for error here on out.
*** Last night’s winners: There were three clear winners last night: Giuliani, Huckabee, and Thompson. Yes, Thompson -- he came out a winner within the first five minutes, thanks to the moderator’s opening question about the candidate-to-be’s decision to go on Leno instead of showing up for this debate. The fact that every candidate (including Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and even McCain) took potshots reinforced the idea that the entire GOP field views him as a major candidate. In fact, most of the debate leads this morning included the Thompson shots. The Thompson folks could not have asked for a better setup. As for the winners who actually participated, Giuliani’s performance was particularly strong -- perhaps his best debate to date. He’s clearly comfortable being the front-runner; he absorbs the attacks from opponents without looking as if that opponent matters. His strongest answers were in defense of NOT signing the no-tax pledge and on guns, but his roughest moment was his shaky answer to the family-values questioner. Meanwhile, Huckabee doing well at a debate is about as common as the sun rising in the east. In particular, the exchange with Ron Paul where Huckabee got to defend McCain, defend the surge, and also call Iraq a mistake was, we dare say, a mix of Reagan and Clinton.
*** The Loser? From our perspective, it was Romney. He certainly didn’t have any friends among the debate questioners and the diner patrons, and that kept him on the defensive all night. Romney’s got to figure out how to turn all these attacks into a positive; Wednesday night was not a great night for the candidate who’s ahead (per the polls) in the early states. As for the rest, McCain won Luntz’s focus group and was praised in several post-debate analyses. But to us, his performance was not dominating, though his lecturing of Romney about the surge was a TV scene-stealer. At times, he was funny and loose; at other times, he was overly serious and a bit tight. Brownback seems less and less relevant (why did he stay in after his poor Ames Straw poll showing?); Tancredo seemed almost a non-factor; Hunter is very good at playing the Patriot card (but what part of the party does he represent that the front-runners don’t?); Paul was as angry as he’s been -- at one point, we wondered why he just didn’t scream, “Hey kids, GET OFF MY LAWN!”
*** Snake I’s? Today, Biden finds himself in Iraq, just days after he declared that he needs to finish second or third in Iowa. In fact, it's all about the "I"s with Biden: Iraq and Iowa. No one seems to come across more credibly on Iraq than Biden does, but he can't seem to get traction. Perhaps it's that he doesn't seem “new,” or that what folks do know of him isn't presidential. He's certainly done nothing to hurt his chances of becoming a key cog in a future Dem administration, but he can't seem to gain traction among the Democratic elite: from trial lawyers to labor (two constituencies that would have been with him under other circumstances). All in all, Biden is a candidate who is performing well at the big events (i.e. debates, key TV interviews), but isn't breaking through in the early states. No wonder he decided to go Iowa or bust.
*** On The Trail: The day after the GOP debate, Giuliani travels to Minnesota and Illinois; Huckabee campaigns in New Hampshire and appears on FOX and Friends in the morning; McCain is in DC then raises money in California; Romney fundraises in New York; and Tancredo holds a town hall meeting in Merrimack, NH. On the Democratic side, Dodd holds a conference call with reporters to discuss his legislation to reform sub-prime lending practices; Edwards picks up the Transport Workers Union’s endorsement in New York; and Obama holds a town hall in Las Vegas before heading to San Francisco.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 44 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 61 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 72 days
Countdown to Iowa: 130 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 135 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 152 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 425 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 502 days
NBC/National Journal campaign reporter Adam Aigner-Treworgy sets the scene for Thompson's first stop today in Iowa… With his first official campaign event scheduled for 3:00 pm ET today, the Fred Thompson camp is working hard to create the right atmosphere to ensure that its candidate enters the race with a splash. On the second floor of the Polk County Convention Complex in downtown Des Moines, in a wide-open room with the capacity for more than three hundred people, the campaign has erected a large stage equipped with three video projectors set in a faux-limestone façade.
The first thing supporters will see is a short video presentation that the advance team has called a biopic on the life of Fred Thompson, followed by a brief introduction by a prominent member of the local media and then a 30- to 45-minute speech that will serve as Thompson's official introduction to both Iowa and the entire country.
In the hallway outside the convention hall, a small group of self-proclaimed "Fred-Heads" gathered on Wednesday night to decorate the bland concrete walls with hand painted signs featuring slogans such as "Run, Fred, Run" and "Got Fred?" The volunteers consisted mostly of local activists with an interest in Thompson. Some had defected from the McCain campaign after the senator’s struggling campaign made drastic changes in his Iowa staff, while others claimed they have been waiting for Thompson to run since the early 1990s. One of the volunteer sign-painters said that Iowans were still struggling to find a candidate to support, and that she suspected the predominant emotion among Thursday's attendees would be curiosity. The only real question remaining is: Who's going to show up?
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The Washington Post says the debate “was among the liveliest of the year. Once past an opening question about the missing Thompson, the candidates turned on one another. Romney, Giuliani, McCain and Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.) sparred over immigration. McCain chastised Romney over his reluctance to say the "surge" policy in Iraq is clearly working. Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) clashed over whether the United States should stay in Iraq or get out.”
The Boston Globe’s lead is Romney attacking Giuliani on im
