October 2007 - Posts
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Edwards campaign has put together a
graphic - (Click for a larger .pdf version of the photo) highlighting the differences between Edwards and Clinton on the issues. And staying with that boxing analogy, the Edwards campaign writes, “Edwards proved again last night, beyond a doubt, that he is a true heavyweight when it comes to challenging the other candidates to tell the truth on the issues that matter most to the American people. The rest of the contenders? Well, let’s just say that even the best hype machines can’t disguise a real featherweight.”
For its part, the Clinton campaign has put together a video it is very proud of -- a compilation from last night’s debate of what they call “The Politics of Pile-On.”
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
If Rodney Woodill hadn’t received a call from his wife Tuesday night, asking him to come home because his two-week old baby was sick,
Edwards might have never won the endorsement of New Hampshire Service Employees Association, part of the Service Employees International Union.
Woodill, who represents 900 county and municipal employees within the state, was on his way to Concord, N.H., to participate in the second Executive Board Meeting within a week to choose a candidate for the state’s union to endorse, but turned back home after his wife called. The board voted without him, split 8-8 between
Obama and Edwards. Local 1984’s president Gary Smith cast the tie-breaking vote, handing the endorsement of 10,000-member union to Edwards.
“If I had gone straight to the meeting, there wouldn’t have been an endorsement for John Edwards last night,” Woodill said in an interview today.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten and Domenico Montanaro
Keeping with the boxing analogies surrounding last night’s Democratic debate, AFSCME members presented Clinton with a pair of boxing gloves -- as well as their official endorsement -- today in Washington.
Later, asked by NBC News if she felt she was ganged up on in Philadelphia last night, she laughed and said, “Well, I got my boxing gloves. I’m ready; I’ll go 10 rounds.”
The Obama campaign called AFSCME's endorsement of Clinton "no surprise" because of Bill Clinton's relationship with AFSCME President Gerald McEntee, who endorsed Bill in 1992.
See Howard Fineman's piece on the Clinton connection from Oct. 23.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain is up with a new 30-second TV ad in New Hampshire touting his record on stopping "wasteful spending" in Congress.
McCain is also trying in this ad to show "He's Baack" as he likes to say in New Hampshire. The ad flashes the faces of Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani and Romney when an announcer says, "All the candidates for president say they'll stop wasteful spending. One man has actually done it." This seems an attempt to wedge himself back in among the top tier.
Here's the full transcript for "Guts":
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeRomney has been upping the ante recently against his top rivals on immigration policy this morning, outlining on Laura Ingraham's show his differences with
Giuliani and
Thompson on the issue.
After his recent focus on fiscal issues, having spent the majority of October touting his record on taxes and spending, Romney's recent criticisms of his rivals -- including Giuliani, Thompson,
McCain and
Huckabee -- have centered on their records on illegal immigration.
Speaking to Ingraham this morning, Romney reiterated his accusation that Giuliani turned the Big Apple into a “sanctuary city” while serving as mayor. He also was asked to draw out his distinctions with Thompson, who has been using much the same language about the issue on the trail recently.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Elissa Davis
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- At the Families USA and Federation of American Hospitals Forum on Healthcare, McCain called for competition in the private sector to bring the cost of healthcare down. The Arizona Senator also said employers would still write off health insurance costs as a tax write-up and the same amount would be applied to the employees as a tax. However, individual employees would receive a $2,500 tax credit and families would receive a $5,000 tax credit.
The reason for this, McCain said, is akin to one of
Ronald Reagan's statements, "Nobody ever washed a rental car." According to McCain, when people simply get health insurance from their employers for free, their sense of responsibility is low. With the tax credit system, McCain said people would view the credit as their own money and make more responsible choices in picking their own plans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Matthew E. Berger
BLAUVELT, N.Y. --
Giuliani said
Clinton “did something extraordinary in American politics” by taking both sides of the issue of New York drivers licenses for illegal immigrants at Tuesday’s debate.
“She did the worst attack on herself,” he said outside a diner at a hastily called press conference. “She did the one thing in a debate you never want to do.”
Giuliani also defended his own record after being criticized by
Biden. Giuliani questioned who had written Biden’s comments that Giuliani was not qualified to be president and that every sentence he utters has “a noun and a verb and 9/11.”
“Did he read that?” Giuliani said when asked by a diner. “I think somebody wrote that for him. Remember Joe doesn’t write his own material.”
He went on to reiterate his qualification, including his executive experience.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reports that the New Hampshire SEIU voted 9-8 to endorse Edwards over Obama, “meaning the vote was very contentious and there [are] many angry folks.”
*** UPDATE *** From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliAn Obama supporter and SEIU member, who learned of the Obama vote, claims Obama won a vote to endorse him on Oct 22. Board members claim that vote was not an endorsement vote and a later vote of the board of directors went to Edwards.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro<
BR>The memo wars go on. The Obama campaign is circulating the following memo, with the title “Turning the Page on Secrecy, Calculation, and Caution.” It tags Clinton as a Washington insider who won’t answer questions and adds another round to “the politics of hope” tug of war.
“On issues from Social Security to Iran to being open with the America people about her record, Senator Clinton offered more of the same Washington political calculation and evasion that won’t bring the change America needs,” the memo reads. “The ‘politics of hope’ doesn’t mean hoping you don’t have to answer tough questions.”
Here’s the full memo:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Less than 10 hours after last night's MSNBC debate, Clinton joined First Lady Laura Bush and other leaders to discuss bipartisan legislation to ensure the continuation of historic preservation.
As First Lady, Clinton served as the founding chair of Save America Treasures. When the administration changed, First Lady Laura Bush continued the program while also creating Preserve America. Now, both the House and the Senate are working to turn the executive orders into permanent legislation. Clinton said the effort "represents the very best Washington can achieve."
Sen. Pete Domenici was optimistic, saying the bill will go through congress "rather quickly" and challenged the House to a race.
Rep. Turner agreed to the race and said if the Senate beat the House, "That would be historic."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Libby Leist
Secretary Condoleezza Rice said goodbye to Karen Hughes this morning at the State Department, ending Hughes' two-and-a-half years in charge of America's public diplomacy. Hughes will officially be off the job in mid-December.
While Hughes' record as head of public diplomacy is very mixed -- her aides insist this decision is not about any disagreement with Rice or the White House -- rather Hughes wants to return to her husband and her family, who she has been regularly commuting to see in Texas. Rice and Hughes are very close, and Hughes still advises Bush, aides say.
Rice told the assembled State Department staff that Hughes carried out her public diplomacy work in "spectacular fashion." She listed her efforts toward Muslim outreach and other public diplomacy programs like a rapid response unit to counter negative stories about America and setting up regional media hubs around the world that deployed Foreign Service officers into local communities, as successes.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell
Speaking at the Grocery Manufacturers Association meeting in Washington, the first president to do so since Eisenhower, President Bush joked about Cheney and Halloween.
The president told the audience that he spoke to the vice president today and "asked him what costume he was planning? He said, "I am already wearing it. He mumbled something about the dark side of the force."
Cheney used the Darth Vader line on himself in a speech on Oct. 21. at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Lansdowne, Va.
"In fact, most of you knew me long before anyone called me, Darth Vader,” he said to laughter. “I've been asked if that nickname bothers me, and the answer is, no. After all, Darth Vader is one of the nicer things I've been called recently.”
From NBC's Dave Forman
An AFSCME spokesperson told the NBC News Washington Desk that its board is meeting this morning in Washington, and it will hold a 1:30pm news conference at the Capital Hilton to announce its endorsement. The person receiving the endorsement will be there.
Could it be Clinton?
From NBC's Kelly O'DonnellNBC News has learned former Gov.
Ed Schafer of North Dakota will be the president's nominee for Secretary of Agriculture.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
 |
|
PHILADELPHIA, PA -- In the first question of the night, with all eyes on him especially after his recent New York Times interview, Obama had the, well, audacity to compare himself to Philly’s own Rocky Balboa. But then in Round 1, he didn’t seem to throw a punch, giving us the impression that he didn’t want to fight. We were wrong. Minutes later, Obama, Edwards, and even Dodd duked it out with the front-runner Clinton, producing the liveliest and most contentious Democratic debate so far of the cycle. How did Clinton hold up? She was strong early on, particularly over the issue that many thought would be THE issue last night -- Iran -- but she got weaker as the night went on. The exchange over driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants allowed her opponents to drive home a narrative that has begun to develop for Clinton at these debates: that she never actually answers the tough questions. Indeed, after last night, you might find a media more consistently fact-checking her on some specifics, which in turn will lead to a chorus of challengers accusing her of not taking a stand. This will be a critical test for her, and perhaps her final hurdle before the Chattering Class truly scores this primary as a unanimous decision for the front-runner.
*** Hillary gets cut: To stick with the boxing analogy, Clinton was still standing after all the punches were thrown. But she got cut, and everyone watching saw it. As one strategist for a non-frontrunner told First Read last night, this debate could end -- at least for now -- the inevitability storyline the press has been writing, which the strategist believes has fueled her rise in the polls. The best news for Clinton: Due to the debate’s late start, many might not have seen the driver’s licenses exchange. So far, in fact, that exchange hasn’t been replayed that much the day after. But look for that to change, thanks as much to Clinton's primary foes as well as the GOP candidates (minus McCain) who love an opportunity to talk about immigration.
***
Obama and Edwards: As we mentioned above, Obama didn’t seem at all interested in mixing it up early on. But then when NBC’s Tim Russert asked Clinton about why her First Lady papers in Little Rock aren’t available to the public, Obama found his opening and delivered what might have been his best line of the debates. The sky-high expectations put Obama in a difficult situation heading into last night, but despite his slow start, he seemed to meet them (although some pundits today disagree). As for Edwards, he might have provided a more consistent contrast with Clinton than Obama did, which his campaign was gunning for. To our eyes, it was Edwards’ best debate to date, making us remember why he was such a successful trial lawyer. If there was a downside to his performance, it might have been that he was too aggressive -- and therefore too negative for the Iowa nice crowd, something the Obama folks are pinning their caucus hopes on.
*** The rest: Once again, Biden had the one-liner of the night (re: Giuliani). If Biden wasn't known as a gaffe machine -- and if he had more money -- he'd be a bigger player in this race. Dodd had perhaps his best debate of the cycle. His back-and-forth with Clinton over the driver’s licenses (who knew Dodd would break with Democratic orthodoxy on the issue?)
was probably one of his best moments to date. He also got to talk issues he's made key to his campaign, like global warming. That said, he still talks WAY too much about legislation he sponsored, rather than about solutions he's proposing. Richardson did well on a few questions, but it was interesting that Biden singled him out -- as his campaign has done in recent press releases -- which tells us someone is truly playing for that close 4th place in Iowa.
*** Close encounters with Dennis: Speaking of having better nights, how about 'ol Dennis Kucinich? He did a great job answering the UFO question (in which he confirmed he spotted an unidentified flying object), and the guy is a machine when it comes to staying on message. The bad news for Dennis: The UFO question is turning into the punchline highlight of the night, which may, at least, up his Q rating and get him a booking on Art Bell's out of this world late-night radio show.
*** One final debate thought: Consider that Clinton's primary rivals were much tougher on her viability arguments than Giuliani's primary foes have been at their debates. Will that change?
*** Trick or treat: On this Halloween Day, the Edwards family goes door-to-door in New Hampshire -- not campaigning, but trick-or-treating. The buzz is that the Obama family, in Chicago, also will be trick-or treating. What will their costumes will be? (Obama said at last night’s debate that he’d be wearing a Romney mask, with two sides to it.) The Dodd campaign, in a press release yesterday, issued suggestion: white hair, a Constitution, and "a passion for service."
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Edwards -- unmasked -- holds two town halls in New Hampshire; Giuliani also stumps in the Granite State; Huckabee is all over FOX, appearing on five shows, including O’Reilly and Hannity; McCain speaks at the Kaiser Family Foundation’s health-care forum in DC, then raises money in Virginia and New York City; and Thompson fundraises in California.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 6 days
Countdown to Iowa: 64 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 69 days
Countdown to Michigan: 76 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 80 days
Countdown to Florida: 90 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 97 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 370 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 447 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The
Philadelphia Inquirer: “Early and often, on Iraq, Iran and electability, Hillary Rodham Clinton was sharply criticized by her rivals during a Democratic presidential debate Tuesday night at Drexel University. This encounter was much the candidates' most contentious of the year, with the front-runner taking repeated verbal shots, particularly from Barack Obama and John Edwards.”
The
AP puts it this way: “In the City of Brotherly Love, there wasn't much for a sister. Hillary Rodham Clinton's rivals ganged up on her during a two-hour Democratic presidential debate Tuesday night, putting the front-runner on defense on issues ranging from Iraq and Iran to Social Security and whether she would be electable in the general election.”
The New York Times adds that “for all the attention Mr. Obama drew to himself coming into the debate, he was frequently overshadowed by former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, who - speaking more intensely - repeatedly challenged Mrs. Clinton’s credentials and credibility, and frequently seemed to make the case against Mrs. Clinton that Mr. Obama had promised to make.”
CONTINUED >>
If language tells the story of the debate, then it's clear the Clinton campaign doesn't believe it won, since it is only trying to spin that "she survived." You don't say that if you think you actually won. Meanwhile, the Edwards and Dodd camps seemed the most fired up post-debate while the Obama folks feel good (though not great, since they know they did meet their own overhyped early expectations).
The
Des Moines Register's Yepsen scored the debate for Edwards. "Edwards came ready for the scrap and he helped his candidacy. His effort has sagged in recent polls and his tough, pointed challenges of Clinton will give his campaign a needed psychological boost at a crucial juncture. By contrast, Barack Obama seemed disjointed, unable to give good sound bites and so didn’t help himself."
Early this morning, the Obama campaign issued an email -- and
YouTube video -- to reporters with pollster Frank Luntz (R) proclaiming Obama as the winner of his focus group last night. Luntz later told First Read that “Obama's attacks are considered legitimate. Not Edwards. There is a huge difference in style. Huge. Hillary has disappointed. Her only really positive lines have been in attacking bush overtly. They did not like her illegal immigration answer." (One thing to keep in mind about focus groups, they don't like negative ads either, but that doesn't mean negative ads don't work so Edwards tougher stances may work, the question is will the attacks work for Edwards or for Obama?)
CONTINUED >>
Per NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan, here’s Obama strategist David Axelrod responding to questions that Obama was too soft: "Let me make something clear. He didn’t come here to attack anybody. He came here to talk about leadership, for the future of leadership, for change is and what that would be. And, yes, there are contrasts to be drawn and he drew them. But, yes, I know it’s the fascination of the news media to see a steel cage match. That was not his goal.”
And he even acknowledged that Edwards had a good night, an opinion shared with many in the Chattering Class. "Well, I think people are going to have to make a decision on who represents, uh what the most authentic change. I think Senator Edwards did a good job tonight, but I think people ugh have to look at what is the history over a period of time. When Barack Obama talks about lobbyists he talks about it as someone who has passed significant legislation. I’m not aware of what Senator Edwards did on this issue.”
 |
|
Clinton strategist Ann Lewis said, per NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones: "I think anyone watching this debate would have seen six candidates spend a lot of their time attacking Hillary Clinton.“ More: “She, in turn, was using her time to talk about what she was for, to talk about her differences with George Bush, to talk about how we had to go in a different direction, so I think she was talking to people about what was on their minds. I would have to say as a matter of strategy when you have so many candidates out there swinging at her, some of whom had advertised for several days that they were really going to go after her. Well, they took their best hits and missed. Nobody connected."
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe’s Scott Lehigh writes about the importance of New Hampshire in the GOP race: “From today's vantage point, you can divide the top four Republican contenders into two categories: Those who have to win New Hampshire and those who can survive without a victory here. Put Romney and McCain in the first group, Giuliani and Fred Thompson in the second.”
GIULIANI: Is he considering Huckabee
for veep if he wins the nomination? "I don't know about running mates, but I sure like having him at the debates, because he makes me laugh. And he has got a nice approach to life. You know, he is a man that is -- he has got a happy approach and he has got an optimistic approach to life. And then I -- you know, I have great respect for him."
On Mukasey, Giuliani
reiterated, "No one, not a single person, can find a single reason why Michael Mukasey shouldn't be attorney general -- other than pure, blatant politics."
HUCKABEE: The candidate said he'd be "surprised and disappointed" if Sam Brownback endorsed Giuliani. "Huckabee said he would be surprised because on the issues Brownback was so ‘adamant’ about during his failed presidential run, namely abortion rights, Brownback and Giuliani are ‘at opposite ends of the political spectrum.’”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Any doubt that the Democratic primary campaign is taking a toll on Clinton's free trade tendencies? She's apparently not decided yet on whether to vote for a free trade agreement with Peru. Obama is for the agreement; Edwards is against.
Clinton’s big labor get? AFSCME just sent out a release saying that it will make a “major political announcement” in DC at 1:30 pm ET. Looks like Clinton will pick up the union’s endorsement…
Clinton is up in a new
New Hampshire poll over Obama and Edwards, 40%-22%-13%.
EDWARDS: The
Raleigh News & Observer looks at the Edwards ground game and how he's having to rely more on volunteers than paid staffers.
And we’re not talking college football…The Wall Street Journal has a great chart and story tracking presidential campaign spending. "In races past, candidates typically spent most heavily in the early going on the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, then had time to shift resources to larger, later states if the nomination hadn't been sewed up yet. This
campaign season is shaping up differently, especially for Republicans, where two major candidates -- Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson -- are spending their budgets most heavily on Florida. That state's Jan. 29 primary has made it for the first time a potential kingmaker along with Iowa and New Hampshire. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is also a big spender in Florida.’
“For Democrats, the growing dominance of Hillary Rodham Clinton, challenged by a struggling but well-financed Barack Obama, has led unprecedented millions to be poured into Iowa -- twice as much as into New Hampshire. Iowa's Jan. 3 caucus has taken on greater importance for Democrats than four or eight years ago because it is the single best chance for Mr. Obama and John Edwards to stop Mrs. Clinton."
Just how serious is the condition of the Mukasey nomination? The Los Angeles Times notes, "Mukasey, adopting a middle ground on an issue that has become central to his nomination, said coercive interrogation methods, including a form of simulated drowning, were ‘over the line’ and ‘repugnant.’ But he declined to say whether he thought so-called water-boarding was a form of torture that would be illegal in all cases.”
“His position, detailed in a letter late Tuesday to the Senate Judiciary Committee, where his nomination to succeed Alberto R. Gonzales has stalled, fell short of assurances sought by some leading Democrats and cast doubt over whether Mukasey would be confirmed."
The
New York Times: "Mukasey noted that Congress has not explicitly banned waterboarding by the C.I.A., though it was outlawed for use by the military in the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005. That left room for interpretation as to whether waterboarding or any other technique is prohibited as ‘cruel, inhuman or degrading’ treatment, he wrote.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddFor those looking for a contentious debate, they got their wish. This was easily the fight of the year when it comes to the Democrats. Now, who will win the post-debate spin war?
The Clinton camp has an interesting challenge in the spin room tonight. Both the Edwards and Obama camps are convinced that Clinton was off her game tonight. Was she? Eye of the beholder on this; At times, she seemed on her game but she did "let 'em see her sweat" at other times. Obviously, Edwards and Obama have the same goal tonight, make it seem as if Clinton "lost" this debate. Well, it's not clear who won it if she somehow lost it. I'm not convinced anyone has won, but it does appear that both Obama and Edwards have accomplished what THEY wanted to do tonight and Clinton's camp probably is glad that neither Obama nor Edwards outshined the other. Her best asset right now is the fact this is still a 3-way race.
As for the rest of the field, Biden, once again, had the one-liner of the night re: Giuliani. If Biden wasn't known as a gaffe machine, he'd be a bigger player in this race, I'm convinced of it. I know that sounds like a back-handed compliment but it's the burden of being Biden.
Dodd had, perhaps, his best debate of the cycle. The ending back-n-forth with Clinton on drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants was probably one of his best moments to date. He also got to talk issues he's made key to his campaign, like global warming. He still talks WAY too much about legislation he sponsored rather than talking about solutions he's proposing. The public has such a low approval rating for Congress than I'm guessing they tune out. Richardson did well on a few questions but it's interesting that Biden singled him out tonight which tells us someone is truly playing for that close4th place in Iowa.
Speaking of having better nights, how 'bout 'ol Dennis Kucinich. He did a great job answering the UFO question and the guy is a machine when it comes to staying on message.
More in the morning and later tonight on cable.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumTotal questions during the debate, including follow up questions:
Clinton - 21
Obama - 17
Edwards - 14
Dodd - 9
Kucinich - 8
Biden - 7
Richardson - 6
These
counts include three "down the line" questions that all of the candidates
answered and questions not directed at a that specific candidate but he
or she jumped in to respond as well.
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPikeRomney spokesman Kevin Madden responds on the debate, "If this debate was being judged on obviously scripted, weak one-liners that fizzled upon delivery, then Senator Obama had a great debate.
"Governor Romney misspoke when he mixed up the senator's name with a
similar sounding one. We made that clear and we moved on."
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumWe
knew Hillary Clinton would be a hot topic tonight, so we counted how
many times each candidate used her name. With a total of 16 mentions of
Hillary or Clinton, there were less mentions at this debate than at
last week's Republican debate. Obama, who promised to step up his
attacks, invoked the New York Senator's name seven times while Edwards
used her name five times. Biden and Dodd each attacked her once while
Richardson stood up for her once.
Clinton, for her turn,
attacked the current administration, attacking Bush 11 times and Cheney
twice. The other Democratic candidates also used Bush as a punching
bag, invoking his name or administration a total of 16 times and
Cheney's three times. Clinton also led the pack in criticizing the GOP,
but Obama and Biden also joined in for that attack. Biden and Obama
specifically attacked Rudy Giuliani, possibly turning him into the
Republican front runner like the Republicans have done to Clinton.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannOuch! The Rudy camp just sent out a snarky release attacking Biden for
his slams at Giuliani. They're reaching back to Biden's failed 1987
campaign, which was derailed after allegations of plagiarism. It's
something that is very rarely brought up, at least here in Iowa.
From
Giuliani's press shop: "The good Senator is quite correct that there
are many differences between Rudy and him. For starters, Rudy rarely
reads prepared speeches and when he does he isn’t prone to ripping off
the text from others. And, Senator Biden certainly falls in to the
bucket of those on the stage tonight who have never had executive
experience and have never run anything. Wait, I take that back,
Senator Biden has never run anything but his mouth."
That smarts!
Team
Biden, for its part, issued a list of instances during the debate when
rivals complimented the Delaware senator. “The phrase most often heard
on the stage tonight was, “Joe is right,” followed closely by the
phrase, “I agree with Joe," says Biden campaign manager Luis Navarro.
*** UPDATE *** No one can accuse Team Biden of being sluggish. It only took
Biden's camp 27 minutes to react to the Giuliani release that brought
up his less-than-proud moment 20 years ago.
From Communications Director Larry Rasky:
“We
are well aware that former Mayor Giuliani will attempt to drag this
race into the mud where the Republicans like to wage their campaigns. It’s pretty obvious that they can’t defend themselves on the real
charge that Mr. Giuliani walked away from the cops and firefighters who
were waiting for the 9/11 Commission to be enacted and the Biden crime
bill to be restored.”
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroSeriously, Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, called on the government to declassify all Roswell documents. He brought it up himself when Chris Matthews was joking about Kucinich's UFO answer. He said the government hasn't "come clean" on the issue. His campaign will surely say he was joking, he has a sense of humor. But even though he was laughing in some parts of that answer, he wasn't joking about THAT.
Matthews looked on in disbelief and joked that this is shaping up to be a contest between the de-evolution party and the pro-UFO party.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesClinton's answer was so confusing. That exchange between Clinton and
Dodd on Spitzer's proposal to give licenses to illegal immigrants was
so confusing. She says she doesn't support it, but then defends it and
still doesn't answer it? I understand it but don't agree with it. Is
that an answer? Edwards just noted that, bringing back his double talk line.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanDodd might not want illegal immigrants to have driver's licenses, but
he's obviously not looking very closely at his own state. New Haven, CT
introduced a bill this past year that allowed illegal immigrants to get
identification cards that would allow them to apply for things like
driver's licenses and government services. From the coverage then, Dodd never said anything against New Haven's policies.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannBiden's got to love the doctor ed question. He
just rolled out his health care policy last week in Des Moines, and his
speech dealt with medical education at length.
And note his
dedication to staying within the time limit. For a guy who's rarely
written about without a phrase like "notoriously long-winded," he's
really making an effort not to seem verbose and, well, too senatorial.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroOh, boy. Kucinich is now on the record as having seen a UFO. And tried to defend it! Seriously, doesn't this UFO answer and his bankruptcy answer at the last debate disqualify him as a serious candidate and one solely for the fringes.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroIs Clinton blurring the lines AGAIN, now on illegal immigrant driver's licenses. She said the plan makes sense, but can't commit apparently. She said she didn't say she supports the plan, when Dodd said she did. Russert tried to pin her on it, and she obfuscated again.
Edwards called her on it, evoking Bush-Cheney, saying Americans were tired of "double talk." Obama nodded and got called on and he got to chime in as well.
Does this become a problem for her? Can she directly answer a question?
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanEducation may be one of the most important issues in our country, but
it rarely comes up on the stump. Obama's choice lines on education are
enhancing pre-K education, sending out an army of teachers, and his
ofen-used stump speech line: "You can't have No Child Left Behind,
without leaving the money behind."
In terms of questions by
voters, it's also not one of top questions asked, though when it is
asked its usually by a college student asking what Obama would do to
lower tuition payments.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesBut he called it a
national teaching university to attract bright young teachers and
encourage them to teach in tough areas. Doesn't that already exist? It's called
Teach for America.
***UPDATE***From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerThere are distinctions, however. As I understand it, Teach for America is for
overachieving college graduates who studied something other than
education to spend two years serving the country by teaching kids in
rural and urban schools. They then go on to work in their original
field. Edwards' National Teaching University would target young people
who want to teach as a career.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller"[Hedge funds
are] an example of the extraordinary corruption that still exists in
the government," said Edwards on hedge funds. Contrary to what you'd
think, Edwards does not duck and cover at the mention of hedge funds.
In fact, he regularly talks about holding hedge funds accountable (but
he doesn't bring up his experience at Fortress on his own). Notice how
he uses the question to segue to a monologue on corruption in
government and the capability of the "strong, heroic, passionate"
American people.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroNow that's fast. Obama's campaign already has a
YouTube video up of... this debate highlighting Obama's "Turn the Page" answer. Kind of freaky. You can watch the debate, while watching the debate.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesObama just said almost
verbatim what has become a key part of Clinton's stump speech. Talking
about families working hard and costs of all things, like college,
going up. It's not surprising that Obama would say such a thing;
it's just surprising how similar it was to whole paragraphs you hear
from Clinton. Just one more similarity between the candidates.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroOn Chuck's point that Clinton needs to keep her cool, this is something her campaign has worked on. She has been very tight, on message and she has tried to appear warmier, fuzzier. But she had managed to do that at prior debates and on the stump with deflections -- whether it was Bush-Cheney rants, that laugh or her isn't-it-so-nice-to-have-all-these-men- so-obsessed with me line. Tonight, there haven't been any clever deflection lines.
From NBC's Chuck ToddCheck out Clinton's demeanor right now compared to 15 minutes ago when she was constantly under fire. She seems more relaxed than before and she handled the tax question without getting too irritated like she did in that second segment. If this campaign ever gets down to 2 or 3 candidates, these are going to be MUCH different debates and she's going to have to learn to keep her cool quicker since she won't have 15 minute breaks like she has right now.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's something to watch. Clinton can somehow show support for Rangel, but not necessarily be for his AMT plan. She really parses the language. It can come across as playing both sides.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesAnd on the matter of Edwards caring about children (per Tricia below), this sounds a lot like a Clinton line. In
stump speeches in recent weeks, Clinton has been talking about how we
can't be the first generation to leave the country in a worse place.
Plus she always talks about children and all the work she's done to
help children.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannObama notes his support "in states where there aren't a lot of African-Americans." As of the last census, blacks made up of 2.3% of Iowa's population, and 1% of New Hampshire's. South Carolina's black population is almost 30% ... That's the fifth highest in the country.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanOne of Obama's favorite lines
about energy conservation is the "personal responsibility" of the
American people, and he talks about how much energy could be saved if
everyone buys energy efficient lightbulbs. Considering how much he
mentions it on the stump in response to questions on global warming,
I'm surprised he didn't take the chance to bring it up here. That's an
answer that could help the American people save money right now.
From NBC's Chuck ToddRichardson gave one of his best answers to any question he's had in a debate in some time. His energy policy specifics that he rattled off showed him to be the expert he claims to be on this specific issue. He was the Energy Secretary in Pres. Clinton's administration, after all, so this was in his wheel house.
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesAs of 9:40 pm (around the time of the first commercial break), Clinton had answered eight questions; Obama four; Edwards four; Kucinich and Richardson had each been asked two; Neither Richardson nor Kucinich got a word in until 20 minutes into the debate.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanObama already had a chance to answer the "swiftboating" question in New Hampshire last week. His answer tonight largely reflects that answer. Last week at a town hall in Dover, NH he said:
“We’ve
already seen this. When Romney started saying this stuff… sometimes
they may be honest mistakes, sometimes not,” Obama said. “There will
be some of that, I’m foreign, clearly I’m a black person.”
“When
people start to swiftboat you, you have to respond forcefully,
immediately, and truthfully. Don’t answer a lie with a lie, you have to
answer a lie with a truth but it has to come fast and it has to come
strong.”
He also pointed to his rise as a politician in Illinois to prove that he was a tougher candidate than he looked like.
Obama
added that he rose to become the “most popular politician in Illinois”
not through working with the Chicago political machine, but by standing
on his own. “I rose to the top of the political heap without once
compromising my integrity,” he said, “I’m tough.”
From NBC's Chuck ToddPretty smart answer from Biden on the $100/barrel oil, figuring out how to tie it to foreign policy, specifically.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanObama has repeatedly pushed on the
stump the idea that the best possible solution for social security is
raising the cap on taxing income up to $97,000. He never says that
"all the options are on the table."
But one of the points that
have been brought up critiquing "raising the cap" on social security is
that there is no guarantee put forward by Obama that he would put those
taxes into lockbox for social security.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Rudy's folks had to love when Brian Williams referred to what he called
the "Giuliani question" on experience. Other candidates answered the
question by defending their credentials, but Biden was the only one
effectively turning it back against Giuliani.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerRecently Edwards has taken a
special interest in our children. "The question is, are you willing to
look your children in the eye tonight and say I'm willing to turn this
mess over to you?" he asked. His revamped stump speech includes a line
about 20 generations of Americans who have left the country better for
their children than what they had and a fear he claims many have that
they would be the first generation to leave their children worse off
than they were.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWell, that was a hot segment with all of the candidates taking turns trying to attack Clinton. How did she handle the heat? She fought back on every charge and seemed to get a tad irritated at times. Obama got his sea legs and Edwards continued to show no mercy; Richardson, as predicted, played the role of Clinton protector and Biden had the best one-liner.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico MontanaroHere's what he actually said from earlier in what appeared to be an appeal to be veep: "I'm hearing this holier than thou attitude toward
Senator Clinton. It is pretty close to personal attacks we don't need
... we need to be positive in this campaign." He then listed some
differences he has with Clinton: Iraq War, NCLB, Iran. "But it is
important to save our ammunition for Republicans."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanObama has said that he's tough enough to be president because he can
withstand attacks. That he's a basketball player who's "not afraid of
getting down low and throwing my elbows around." Are we finally seeing
the basketball player rather than the cautious and long-winded
professor take the stage?
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliRichardson picked up where he left this morning in speaking out against a negative campaign. This
morning he told reporters in the Secretary of State's office in NH: "I
think that Senators Obama and Edwards should concentrate on the issues
and not on attacking Senator Clinton."
More: "I do believe that
it's important that the Democratic candidates stay positive. There's
gonna be plenty of time to get negative with the Republicans. But now's
not the time to start food fights."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
It allows him to talk about
his legislative accomplishments, which takes up a big part of his stump
speech, and it allows him to bash Washington, also a big part of his
stump speech.
Obama presents himself as 'the uniter not the
divider' on the stump, talking about how he brought people together
over racial profiling and the death penalty in Illinois. He routinely
says that no other candidate in the race has a body of legislation as
substantive as him when it comes to taking money out of politics.
And
he likes to point out that the "experience" question is usually about
how long you've been in Washington. He turns the question into an
anti-Washington establishment pitch that is focused on how politicians
who have been in Washington too long are part of a corrupt system that
should be changed.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerWe've heard from anti-Clinton Democratic
voters that they'd embrace the Obama-Edwards ticket. Tonight they seem
to have forged an effective partnership, but Edwards has said he's not
interested in the VP spot after his 2004 experience.
From NBC's Chuck ToddI'm going to be fascinated to see how Clinton's doing in some of the dial tests that the better-funded campaigns are conducting tonight. She's showing a feistiness that some may reward but she's showing some irritation as well and one thing many of Clinton's foes believe is that over time, a negative-sounding Clinton won't wear well. She wears better when she gets to stay positive and above it all; when she engages? That's what the dial tests could be telling folks tonight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton seems on the defensive here and blurring the lines when it comes to social security as Russert tried to pin her down on what she WOULD do specifically. She backtracked from her conversation with Tom Bowman, saying she'd consider raising the cap. Very Clintonian.
From NBC's Chuck Todd"I'm not running against Hillary Clinton"? So says Joe Biden. Campaigns are about contrast. That said, Biden, once again, has one of the more memorable lines of the night and seemed to hit Giuliani better than any of the other Democrats on stage tonight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroBiden struck fire there. He's been quiet, but may have delivered the best line in talking about how Giuliani is not qualified. He said Giuliani only uses three things in a sentence, "A noun, a verb and 9/11."
Then he laid out his record sharply about his role in plenty of foreign affairs issues.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanMaybe this is why Obama has a hard time attacking Clinton. The two of them have the EXACT same position on leaving Iraq. Obama
says he would leave troops in Iraq or in the region as counter
terrorism forces, to guard the embassies and to aid in a humanitarian
mission. He also says that the withdrawal should be "careful."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
How often does Pakistan ever come out on
the campaign trail with Senator Obama? Almost never. After his August
speech, in which Obama said he would act unilaterally to bomb Pakistan
if there was an "actionable" terrorist threat, he has largely been
silent on the issue. He rarely brings up the Musharraf government or
the position he took in August.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerEdwards missed a chance to add some powerful
talking points from his stump speech when he answered Russert's
question about Iran getting the bomb. Audiences love that he says he
wants to be the president who wants to rid the world (not just Iran) of
nuclear weapons and quit building new nuclear plants in the U.S.
From NBC's Chuck ToddVery interesting (and surprising to those of us involved in the gaming out of this debate), Clinton's opponents are taking to the electability attacks on Clinton a lot easier than the Iran attacks.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
From earlier, Edwards is right at home next
to Clinton - his response to Clinton's Iran argument came straight out
of his stump speech. The only new idea is assigning blame to "neocons."
(Others in the workspace are crediting senior adviser Joe Trippi for
that line.) If I had a quarter for every time I've heard "If you give
this president an inch, he'll take a mile" over the last two weeks, I
could do all of our laundry tonight.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAs some of us predicted, Bill Richardson is deciding to be the guy that stands up for Clinton.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Richardson backed Clinton -- he's the first to have her back. Is this a naked ploy to appeal to Clinton to be her VP?
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannClinton proposes that people like "Bill
and Joe and Chris" should contribute to a diplomatic effort in the
Middle East. A subtle way to throw the second tier a bone and undermine
the foreign policy cred of her top rivals.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAnd now the double-team of Obama/Edwards v. Clinton is on. How will this play in Iowa? It's now in Clinton's interest to keep both Edwards and Obama hitting her, right?
From NBC's Chuck ToddMaybe Obama is just like Rocky, as my colleague Mark Murray just said, it just takes him a couple of rounds get warmed up. Obama seemed to be ready to hit her harder after the commercial break.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWhere did that come from? Obama just laid the whole thing out, and opened it up with saying that Clinton stole his line.
This was the most direct he's been... He tied Clinton to Bush with regard to secrecy because of the national archives not releasing documents that could show her experience.
One of the reasons they're comfortable talking about you is because it's a fight they're used to fighting, Obama said, paraphrasing.
Then Edwards chimed in and piled on and said that one of the reasons Republicans are so "obsessed with you" is "maybe they WANT to run against you."
"If you believe in the status quo, Senator Clinton's your candidate."
From NBC's Chuck ToddHow about the fact that Clinton is now regularly adopting Obama's "turn the page" phrase. We've said this before, successful nominees learn to co-opt the best of their opponents. It appears the "turn the page" phrase tests well in Mark Penn focus groups.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroThe right kind of experience, turn the page... wow... I guess a good candidate steals the best lines. Aren't those Obama's?
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller"I'm against a rush to war. ... I'm not in favor
of a rush to war, but I'm also not in favor of rushing to nothing. ...
I prefer vigorous diplomacy." Really? Traveling the campaign trail with
Edwards over the past weeks would leave you convinced that Clinton made
the vote to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist
organization in an effort to appease general election voters. If that
were true, has it done her any good? Has her vote to declare the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization won her favor with
Republicans and independents?
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanWill anyone bring up the fact that Senator Durbin has introduced
legislation to "clarify" the Kyl-Lieberman ammendment on Iran by
requiring Bush to get congressional authorization before using force
against Iran?
In an interview last week with NBC/NJ, Senator Durbin said he introduced the bill because he wanted “real clarity on the issue.”
“I
voted against the invasion of Iraq and I continue to hear the President
and the Vice President speak in terms of war when it comes to Iran. The
president goes as far to say World WAR III and Vice President Cheney
makes similar comments,” Durbin said.
“The problematic
language in the resolution says that it is a "critical national
interest of the United States" to counter Iran's influence among the
Shia population of Iraq,” Obama foreign policy advisor, Greg Craig,
wrote in an email to reporters yesterday. He went on to say that the
language could be used to “maintain and use US troops in Iraq for the
purpose of containing Iran, [sic] cirtailing Iran's influence in Iraq,
and, if need be, to expand our troops' activities beyond Iraq's borders
to pursue and attack Iranian forces," Durbin said.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanNote Edwards reference to Tom Bowman, the voter
who asked Clinton, if she would raise the cap on payroll taxes
beyond $97,000 social security at a town hall in Iowa. Clinton hedged
on the issue there, but when Bowman approached her on the rope line,
she said that she would be willing to raise the tax cap to $200,000.
Nedra Pickler, an AP reporter, overheard the conversation and reported on
it. And later the Obama campaign reached out to Bowman and had him tell
that story at a town hall this past Saturday, when Obama went after
Clinton on social security.
From NBC's Chuck ToddEdwards seems to be the one looking the opportunities to hit Clinton hard. Obama's hitting her, but not like Edwards. If the NYT interview hadn't happened this weekend with Obama, the spin on this first 40 minutes would be: Edwards stepping up his attempts to create a contrast with Clinton while Obama sits back hoping he benefits from the negative fallout. But because of the hype of the NYT interview, the spin tonight may be, Obama backed down a tad, while Edwards decided to fill the vacuum.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerAs Edwards indicated by his first answer, trust
is a characteristic he values. In every town hall over the past two
weeks, Edwards has taken questions and then closed by telling the
audience that if he wasn't running for president, he would look to
support a candidate he could trust. He tells the New Hampshire or Iowa
audience that they have a unique opportunity to judge the character of
candidates up close, and they should seek out a candidate they can
trust, whether it's him or someone else.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Maybe it's not in his personality. Maybe it's about 2012 or 2016. Maybe it's Iowa Nice. But Obama just doesn't seem like he either can or wants to be direct on Clinton instead of continuing to talk about himself.
Edwards is more sharper, clearer on these differences. It's interesting, but Edwards' campaign points out all of the things he has been first on, but others have gotten the attention for. Seems to me tonight, that Obama -- by virtue of answering the question first perhaps -- has brought something up first, but Edwards has been the one to capitalize on it.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton says she opposes the war. She left no wiggle room on that.
From NBC's Chuck ToddInteresting that both Biden and Dodd took the Iran question regarding nukes and used it as a way to make the case that Pakistan is a bigger threat to the U.S. safety than a nuclear Iran.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Maybe it's a bit of a stunt, putting a man in the audience who he brought back from Iraq. How can you argue with Richardson, who has been sent to negotiate successfully in what politicians and Americans would call the worst parts of the world? No one on stage contended the point and certainly gave credence to why he's on stage. It was a bit of showmanship but he recognized an opportunity and capitalized on it.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
For the first time, Obama stopped a debate and went outside the lines on Russert's pledge question. It was the first time he made you look up.
From NBC's Chuck ToddEdwards just connected the dots that some thought Obama would connect re: the Iran issue. Early on, he's doing a better job of drawing distinctions with Clinton than Obama. Dropping "neo-con" a few times in his response on Iran was a smart way to alert Democrats of his opposition. For the true activists, "neo con" is a four-letter, um, phrase.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton does a better job of creating the Bush straw man than any other candidate. While all of her Democratic foes try to draw contrast with her, she's busy drawing contrast with Bush. Her job, in a Democratic primary, is a lot easier.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton: Economic sanctions are part of diplomacy. By the way, yet another, "Joe is absolutely right" at a debate from Clinton. Make friends with those who sound strongest on stage? She looks most presidential again, and is doing it strategically -- say everyone agrees and then criticize the opposition -- Republicans and Bush.
But Edwards came back stronger, taking the liberal mantle. He said does any of this sound familiar. This was "literally in the language of the neo-cons." How is this Democrats standing up and saying no. That was impassioned and a strong response. Tries to show himself as the clear, sharp alternative. This is wedging going on. He might be elbowing Obama out of the way on this issue. His, albeit reasonable, but tepid answer on this, just wasn't grabbing the spotlight.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJoe Biden continues to sound as the authentic voice on national security issues; he speaks with an authority that makes him believable even if you disagree with his policy proposals.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroMaybe it's his speaking style, and directness, but Biden is the only one on the stage to stylistically match Clinton's clarity. He laid out the reasons against the Iran vote, the consequences, better than Dodd and sounded stronger than either Obama or Edwards in their openings.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton appears to have brought her game face tonight. She has yet to be thrown off message by either her opponents or the moderators. That was a VERY passionate defense of her Iran vote.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton seemed to be against the ropes for a second there. First Obama from her left. Then Edwards from her right. But their attacks didn't keep her against the ropes because a minute later, she was out swinging. Her speech got quicker and she took control, again -- even on Iran. Are they not just scared of attacking a woman, but nervous about attacking the potential Democratic nominee/president. Even Dodd was not as sharp in his critique.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJohn Edwards seemed to also tone down the rhetoric just a bit too. Could it be both Edwards and Obama are worried about a backlash of attacking the lone woman in the race? Many a male politician has struggled going negative on female opponents.
From NBC's Chuck Todd"Some of this stuff gets over-hyped"... That's what Obama said in response to the first question where NBC's Brian Williams asked Obama which issues Sen. Clinton was voting like a Republican. Clearly, he decided to back off the threat of aggression that his interview with the New York Times seemed to indicate. Many reporters will take the "some of this stuff gets over-hyped" line and use it as evidence Obama decided NOT to engage Clinton as aggressively as was promised.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroSo who won it? Obama spoke more and at first seemed like he wasn't going to engage. He called it the most overhyped fight since Rocky and Apollo Creed, "but ironically, I'm Rocky in this situation."
He laid a few items, like NAFTA and Iraq as differences. He wasn't as direct or sharp as he could have been. That TV thing again.
Clinton said, smirking like she's enjoying it, "I don't think the Republicans got the message that I am voting like them." She cited the GOP debate where she was an entire segment.
She specifically said, among other things, "They want to continue the war, I want to end it."
Who won it? Too early.
From NBC's Mark Murray
PHILADELPHIA, PA -- Just 30 minutes before the debate here... Joining the hundreds of
Clinton,
Obama,
Edwards, and
Biden supporters outside the debate hall are about a couple dozen
Paul supporters holding a "Ron Paul Revolution" banner. Talk about some crossover appeal here....
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
After weeks of intense lobbying by the top three Democratic presidential candidates, Edwards has come away with the endorsement of the New Hampshire SEIU.
The endorsement will help Edwards considerably, providing him with financial resources and volunteers in the Granite state. It will also prevent other state chapters from sending volunteers to New Hampshire to campaign for either Obama or Clinton.
This is the 12th state SEIU endorsement Edwards has won; the others include Iowa and California.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
An Edwards campaign memo from Campaign Manager David Bonior makes clear who the primary target is: Hillary Clinton. And the primary issue: lobbying.
"Unfortunately, the Clinton campaign has made it clear -- through its choices, its words and its silence -- that it intends to defend the broken system in Washington," Bonior writes, "where the interests of the American people are bought and sold every day by an army of lobbyists...."
More: "The real question as we enter tonight’s presidential debate on MSNBC is why, in the face of the great challenges we face as a nation, Senator Clinton chooses to so passionately defend this broken system and the damage that Washington lobbyists are doing to our nation every single day."
The memo also rolls off nine issues, the campaign says it has led on.
Here's the full memo:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Abby Livingston
McCain’s speech to the leaders of major Jewish organizations in New York City today hopped the globe in addressing his view of American foreign policy.
“I believe that all of the situation in the Middle East is connected,” McCain said as he discussed Iraq and how he would not divorce the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from the issue of Islamic extremism. His off-the-cuff comments, however, branched out far beyond the Middle East. McCain sees Russia and China as obstructing the U.S. agenda as well.
“I think the larger problem is that we're facing a United Nations,” McCain said, “and I'm not for getting out of the United Nations and all that, but we're facing a Security Council where we're going to have great difficulty until the Chinese start showing the maturity the world power shows and Putin somehow begins to recognize that he's going to make himself basically an outlaw country. And by the way, I would dis-invite Putin from the next G8 meeting.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Dodd and Edwards are two candidates who could benefit if Obama loses traction during tonight's debate. Getting ready for the debate in Philadelphia, they each sounded off on why they will be able to punch through to the top.
"I have had for some time drawing clear distinctions between Clinton and myself and the differences in our approach, the differences in our approach to Iraq and ending the war in Iraq," Edwards told NBC's Andrea Mitchell inside the debate hall. "For me, ending combat missions, for her, not. And the difference in approach to Iran. I'll continue what I've been doing."
Unlike Edwards and Obama, Dodd said he would rather not attack a fellow Democratic candidate. "I think the notion somehow that you are only going to win this by taking someone else down runs against my grain," he said outside on the Drexel campus to NBC's Mitchell.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger
On its face, the numbers are startling. According to the latest Giuliani campaign radio ad, the survival rate for prostate cancer is almost twice as high in the United States as it is in Great Britain. But cancer experts suggest the numbers used by the Giuliani campaign are out of date and misleading.
“My chance of surviving prostate cancer, and thank God I was cured of it, in the United States, 82 percent,” Giuliani says in the ad, now running in New Hampshire. “My chances of surviving prostate cancer in England, only 44 percent under socialized medicine.”
The Giuliani campaign cites City Journal, a conservative quarterly magazine, as its source. The journal’s Web site describes it as “the nation’s premier urban-policy magazine” and says it served as an “idea factory” during Giuliani’s tenure as New York City mayor. It’s an arm of the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank.
*** UPDATE*** A Johns Hopkins prostate cancer expert weighs in.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Matthew E. BergerGiuliani picked up the endorsement of Joe Allbaugh, the national campaign manager for
Bush-Cheney 2000. Allbaugh went on to serve as director of the FEMA, but left before Hurricane Katrina.
Allbaugh was considered part of Bush’s inner circle in the campaign, and his new association with Giuliani will likely be seen as a boost for Giuliani’s efforts to establish mainstream Republican credentials. It also doesn’t hurt that Allbaugh is on the board of the National Rifle Association. He is being billed as senior advisor and homeland security advisor to Giuliani
“Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate who will keep America on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us,” Allbaugh said in a statement. “The leadership he showed after 9/11 was an inspiration not only to New Yorkers but to the country. He knows what it takes to keep America safe, and as President, he will ensure that our country never goes back on defense in this war.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
There is clearly a split among how Democrats and Republicans view the role of religion in public service, according to a new poll made available to First Read that was sponsored by the Interfaith Alliance and conducted by the Democratic polling group, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner.
Three-quarters of Democrats believe a candidate should not use their religion or faith to influence voters to support them, but those numbers are much lower when it comes to Republicans. Only 58% of Republicans believe so. And nearly three in 10 Republicans “strongly disagree” with the statement. Religious conservatives have been the most reliable voters on the GOP side and their turnout is largely credited with helping elect President Bush.
The poll also found that more Republicans than Democrats attend religious services regularly. About 63% of Republicans said so as opposed to about half of Democrats and Independents.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Yet ANOTHER memo… this one from Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief strategist. We noted this morning that the Clinton campaign posted video of Obama talking about the politics of hope and Edwards talking about not attacking Democrats back in his 2004 run. And now the Clinton campaign is trying to grab the “politics of hope” mantle, saying in the memo, “One candidate is defining the ‘politics of hope’ while the others are abandoning them.”
One thought though, does this hold water? Are Obama and Edwards really not allowed to point out differences with Clinton? That would certainly be a plus for Clinton if everything is off-limits. Is it going to be off-limits for her to criticize another campaign or “point out differences”?
Here’s the full memo:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddFor those looking for a contentious debate, they got their wish. This was easily the fight of the year when it comes to the Democrats. Now, who will win the post-debate spin war?
The Clinton camp has an interesting challenge in the spin room tonight. Both the Edwards and Obama camps are convinced that Clinton was off her game tonight. Was she? Eye of the beholder on this; At times, she seemed on her game but she did "let 'em see her sweat" at other times. Obviously, Edwards and Obama have the same goal tonight, make it seem as if Clinton "lost" this debate. Well, it's not clear who won it if she somehow lost it. I'm not convinced anyone has won, but it does appear that both Obama and Edwards have accomplished what THEY wanted to do tonight and Clinton's camp probably is glad that neither Obama nor Edwards outshined the other. Her best asset right now is the fact this is still a 3-way race.
As for the rest of the field, Biden, once again, had the one-liner of the night re: Giuliani. If Biden wasn't known as a gaffe machine, he'd be a bigger player in this race, I'm convinced of it. I know that sounds like a back-handed compliment but it's the burden of being Biden.
Dodd had, perhaps, his best debate of the cycle. The ending back-n-forth with Clinton on drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants was probably one of his best moments to date. He also got to talk issues he's made key to his campaign, like global warming. He still talks WAY too much about legislation he sponsored rather than talking about solutions he's proposing. The public has such a low approval rating for Congress than I'm guessing they tune out. Richardson did well on a few questions but it's interesting that Biden singled him out tonight which tells us someone is truly playing for that close4th place in Iowa.
Speaking of having better nights, how 'bout 'ol Dennis Kucinich. He did a great job answering the UFO question and the guy is a machine when it comes to staying on message.
More in the morning and later tonight on cable.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Ahead of the NBC debate from Philadelphia, the Biden campaign sent out a memo showing what Biden at least would like the focus to be on. And no surprise, he wants the focus on Iraq/Iran.
He'll tout his Iraq amendment that passed in the Senate and will likely criticize Democrats for voting against troop funding, particularly since the presumed frontrunners have said they can’t guarantee troops out of Iraq by 2013. He may also go after Clinton for her Iran vote, as he highlights that he voted against the amendment deeming the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.
Here’s his statement:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
PHILADELPHIA -- With the strong possibility that
Edwards and
Obama will challenge the front-runner
Clinton at tonight's debate, the Clinton campaign is now displaying old video on its
Web site of Edwards and Obama voicing their opposition to political attacks. Is this how Clinton will defend herself if her rivals come out swinging?
*** UPDATE *** Edwards and Clinton also release statements opposing Mukasey. Read more to read their statements as well.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Yesterday, Dodd held a conference call with reporters to declare his opposition to Attorney General nominee Michael Mukasey. He said he was opposed to Mukasaey, not because of his stance on torture, but above all because of his stance on the power of the executive branch.
Today, Obama's Senate office released a statement with Obama's opposition to Mukasey. Obama's opposition, he writes is rooted in both Mukasey's ambiguous stance on torture and the issue of presidential power.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
PHILADELPHIA -- Just hours before tonight's debate, Richardson is up with a new TV ad in Iowa, which seems to us like a closing advertisement a candidate would air right before the voting. It's also worth noting that the ad is much more serious than his earlier "job interview" ads.
“I’m Bill Richardson," he says in it, "and when I began this campaign for president, I wasn’t sure what to expect. I knew I wouldn’t have every answer. But I’ll always tell you what I really believe. And I’ll never mislead you. I knew there’d be differences between the candidates. Especially on Iraq. I’ll get every soldier out. You can’t say you’ll end the war if you plan to leave thousands of troops behind. The Iraqis sure won’t think the war is over."
He continues, "If you’re wondering if anyone can really do all this, just look at what I’ve done in my life and how I’ve done it. Not by dividing people. But by earning their trust. And that’s really where we need to begin in Iraq... I approved this message because I’m sure not the best looking or the flashiest … but I know who I am. And I know how hard I’ll work for you.”
By the way, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli -- who's covering Richardson filing his paperwork today for the New Hampshire primary -- reports that Richardson said he would not accept matching funds "because it's unilateral disarmament." It's worth noting that not accepting matching funds makes it MUCH easier to transfer one's presidential money into a Senate account. Just some food for thought...
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
PHILADELPHIA, PA -- *** The Debate At Drexel: Tonight at 9:00 pm ET, the Democratic presidential candidates -- minus Gravel -- will gather here at Drexel University in the City of Brotherly Love for their seventh debate of this campaign season (or eighth, if you count the boisterous AFL-CIO forum at Chicago’s Soldier Field). Moderated by NBC’s Brian Williams, with additional questions from NBC’s Tim Russert, the debate airs on MSNBC and will be livestreamed on MSNBC.com. To see where the Dem race now stands, it’s worth recalling the first debate of the cycle, which was held almost exactly six months ago in Orangeburg, SC. Before that debate, Clinton held a narrow five-point lead over Obama (36%-31%) in the NBC/WSJ poll. Since then, however, she has expanded it. The latest NBC/WSJ poll has her leading Obama by 21 points (44%-23%), and Edwards by 28 points (44%-16%). Other surveys have her with even wider leads over her rivals. There is no doubt about it: These debates have had an impact on the race.
 |
|
VIDEO: NBC News/National Journal campaign reporters, Athena Jones, Aswini Anburajan and Tricia Miller discuss the debate preparation of the Democratic candidates.
*** Channeling John Elway? With this kind of lead, tonight's debate is as much about Clinton's challengers as it is about her. Like a football team down by two touchdowns heading into the fourth quarter, it's mostly up to that team to erase the deficit (although miscues by the team that’s ahead certainly can help the comeback). As we noted yesterday, Obama’s interview with the
New York Times -- in which he promised to step up his criticism of Clinton -- has raised expectations for the Illinois senator. In fact, the pressure on Obama has never been greater than it is tonight. This might sound far-fetched, but there is a real chance that this race begins or ends tonight. Many in the Beltway chattering class will issue a verdict of "game on" or "game over" after tonight. It's probably premature -- and not fair -- but it's something Obama's folks probably are now realizing. And it may be why just in the last 12 hours, we've sensed a downshifting a tad of just how aggressive Obama's going to be. See Axlerod in Howard Fineman’s piece.
***
If You’re Name Isn’t Clinton Or Obama: It’s also worth keeping an eye on Edwards, who yesterday delivered a tough speech aimed directly Clinton, charging her for taking more money from Washington lobbyists than any other presidential candidate. Ironically, perhaps the most lethal attack Edwards has leveled to date on Clinton is getting overshadowed by the MSM’s obsession of Obama versus Clinton. The good news for Edwards is he may actually have the chance of standing back and watching Obama swing at Clinton. And if Obama misses, he can pounce and try to fill the void. With everyone expecting Obama to be the aggressor, does Edwards -- or Biden, Dodd, or someone else -- steal the spotlight?
*** Iran And Social Security: The issue that will likely produce much of tonight’s back-and-forth is Clinton’s vote last month on the measure designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, which pits her versus all of her Dem rivals. Social Security might also provide some sparks: In recent days, Obama has given speeches, and even released a TV ad, jabbing at Clinton’s refusal in the past debate to propose specific solutions to fix Social Security. In response, the Clinton camp went up with its own TV ad in New Hampshire that changes the subject to -- whom else? -- George Bush. “When George Bush threatened to privatize Social Security,” the announcer says in the ad, “Hillary was there fighting every step of the way to stop him.”
***
Rudy’s Foils: Giuliani is proving to be very adept at using his tenuous front-runner status -- most recently by taking shots at the Democratic front-runners. Per NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger, Rudy yesterday went after Clinton, Edwards, and Obama on Iraq and Iran. “Suppose Hillary Clinton and John Edwards’ new position were there positions back then, that it was a mistake to take him out,” Giuliani said. “Would we be dealing with Saddam Hussein becoming nuclear right now? If Iran was becoming nuclear, what would he be doing?” While Hillary Clinton uses George Bush as her foil, Giuliani uses Clinton and the other Dems.
***
Is Huckabee For Real? It depends who you ask. The media love him, and more Republicans are warming to him. But that’s not true for fiscal conservatives like the Club for the Growth, which yesterday released yet another negative press release on the ex-governor. This a classic good news/bad news issue for Huckabee. The good news: He’s making enough progress to get attacked. The bad news: He doesn’t have the resources to fight these charges, making it possible that his surge ends before it begins.
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Edwards holds a town hall in New Hampshire before traveling to Philly; Giuliani raises money in New York; McCain also fundraises in New York and meets with leaders of Jewish-American organizations; Paul appears on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno; Richardson files to be on the New Hampshire ballot; Romney raises money in New York City, Chicago, and Boston; and Thompson holds a rally in Newport Beach, CA.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 7 days
Countdown to Iowa: 65 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 70 days
Countdown to Michigan: 77 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 81 days
Countdown to Florida: 91 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 98 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 371days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 448 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Boston Globe's Helman curtain-raises the debate and notes the difficulty Obama has had in drawing distinctions with Clinton. "The Iraq war. Healthcare. Diplomacy. Iran. In the nine months since launching his insurgent campaign for president, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has seized on a slew of issues in trying to set himself apart from Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. But with Clinton's dominance unabated, there is little evidence Obama has made headway on any of them… Part of Obama's problem, analysts say, is that despite how hard his campaign is working to highlight its differences - he is vowing again this week to take her on more directly - he and Clinton are simply not far apart on major issues."
So which Obama are we going to see tonight? David Axelrod offers a hint to Howard Fineman. “There are many Obama supporters who think he has been entirely too subtle and that he needs to go straight for the jugular Tuesday night. Axelrod isn’t one of them, and he presumably has some influence. ‘The Washington people want a steel-cage death match,’ he said. ‘It’s blood lust. But we have our own theory and our own pace. And, by the way, it’s a dead heat in Iowa.’”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The
AP reports on Biden’s speech at the Delaware Jefferson-Jackson Dinner last evening. “Biden said the next president's term will determine whether America ‘regains its footing and reinvigorates the middle class or continues on this spiral that this administration has put us into.’ ‘The American people know that this president has dug us into a very, very deep hole,’ Biden said.”
CLINTON: The
Washington Post's Kornblut looks at Bill Clinton's role in the campaign and, potentially, as the first spouse. "Exactly how Clinton would conduct himself during this unprecedented process has been a subject of much speculation from the outset. Advisers worried that his charisma might eclipse his wife, that his past marital misconduct might become an issue again, or that after years of dominating public attention it would be hard for him to cede the spotlight. But so far, he has maneuvered the uncharted territory of running what amounts to a third presidential campaign largely as a free agent -- attending occasional strategy meetings with senior advisers at the couple's home in Chappaqua, N.Y., and serving as a surrogate in places his wife cannot be, but rarely making his presence felt at the campaign's headquarters in Arlington, several campaign officials said. He is at times out of the loop on campaign strategy and developments, they said."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The
Washington Post reports that Rudy Giuliani still works part time at Giuliani Partners. "Giuliani's continuing involvement with a firm catering to corporate clients makes him unique among Republican contenders. It also complicates the task of separating his firm's assets from his campaign spending. Several of the firm's employees do volunteer work for his campaign. And Giuliani did not decide until mid-June, six months after he entered the race, to bill his campaign for the cost of the security detail traveling with him on campaign trips; before then, the firm paid the expense."
More: "Federal election laws prohibit Giuliani's firm from absorbing costs or providing services that legally should be covered by political donations, campaign experts said… One concern among ethics experts is that Giuliani's continuing affiliation with the firm might create a public perception that clients with business that could be affected by a Giuliani presidency might hire the firm to curry favor.”
The Washington Times looks at Giuliani's latest New Hampshire radio ad on health care, and uses it as a peg to prove he's as focused on the general election as he is on the primary. "Giuliani continues to look past his Republican presidential foes to target front-running Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton, talking candidly about his bout with prostate cancer and deriding the New York senator's plan for ‘socialized medicine.'"
In New Hampshire yesterday, Giuliani came out in support of the Patriot Act, something that may actually not play well in the "Live Free or Die" state. “‘I don't know of any areas in which it isn't operating well," he said... ‘I can't think of anything I would add to it, but sometimes you think of things as you go along."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times: “State Department investigators offered Blackwater USA security guards immunity during an inquiry into last month’s deadly shooting of 17 Iraqis in Baghdad -- a potentially serious investigative misstep that could complicate efforts to prosecute the company’s employees involved in the episode, government officials said Monday.”
The Washington Post adds, “FBI agents called in to take over the State Department's investigation two weeks after the Sept. 16 shootings cannot use any information gleaned during questioning of the guards by the department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security, which is charged with supervising security contractors. Some of the Blackwater guards have subsequently refused to be interviewed by the FBI, citing promises of immunity from State, one law enforcement official said. The restrictions on the FBI's use of their initial statements do not preclude prosecution by the Justice Department using other evidence, the official said, but ‘they make things a lot more complicated and difficult.’”
CONTINUED >>
The entire GOP House congressional delegation is heading to the White House this morning for a meeting with President Bush, NBC’s Mike Viquiera reports. Afterwards, the president -- flanked by Republican leaders -- is expected to speak to the press. Bush’s remarks are expected to last 5-7 minutes, according to House GOP aides. And on the agenda are Mukasey’s confirmation, spending bills, FISA, and national security issues.
Will they also discuss House GOP retirements? The New York Times examines all of these retirements thus far - the latest of which is Tom Tancredo’s -- and notes that one of the reasons for them is the GOP’s new minority status. “‘Obviously, I would rather be in the majority,’ said [Ralph] Regula, who has spent almost 50 years in public service, considering his state and federal offices. ‘But it is just time.’ While the time might be right for Mr. Regula to leave Congress, it is not particularly opportune for his party, which already has an uphill fight to regain control of the House next year.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Dodd said on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews that Clinton’s flaws are electability and “whether or not she can get the job done.”
“I bring a quarter century of experience. I always brought Republicans and Democrats together,” Dodd said. “After six years of on-the-job training, the country is looking for someone with unique ideas. I say respectfully, I don’t think that’s out there with other candidates.”
Dodd also drew distinctions between himself and other Democratic candidates, particularly on the Iraq war. Dodd said that it was remarkable that neither Clinton nor Obama nor Edwards could commit to having troops out of Iraq by the end of their first term -- six to seven years down the road -- when asked about it by NBC’s Washington Bureau Chief and Meet the Press host Tim Russert at the last MSNBC debate. Dodd said he would “absolutely” have troops out by the end of his first term.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Elissa Davis
Dodd became the first senator to officially speak out against Bush's nominee for Attorney General in a conference call earlier today with reporters. Unlike others, who have complained about Mukasey's ambiguous stance on waterboarding, Dodd said his opposition is over presidential power. The president and the executive branch should not be able to trump statutes as a matter of national security, Dodd said.
"This statement is far more troubling than those on torture,” Dodd said. “As important as those are, this is far more troubling. The suggestion that the President as some penumbra to be above the law is a very troubling statement.” He expressed strong opposition to Mukasey, outlining that if he were to be confirmed, his statement would set the precedent that "any President would be able claim at any time that something was a national security issue; it would open Pandora’s Box,” Dodd said. “This ought to bother everyone. No one is above the law, a first-year law student would know how fundamental this is."
Dodd said presidential power was part of the problem with Alberto Gonzales. Dodd said he hopes both Democrats and Republicans would be as concerned as he is and block Mukasey. Dodd added though that he would not go so far as to filibuster the nomination, which is why he’s raising the issue now, because as far as he knows it is "99 to1."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-TreworgyCONCORD, NH -- On the same day he holds a grand opening for his campaign’s New Hampshire headquarters this evening,
Thompson sat at the historic filing desk here and added his name to the nation’s first primary ballot. Yet because his name is legally Freddie Dalton Thompson, his first name will appear in quotations as is the procedure with nicknames.
Along with the official filing form, all of the candidates who file in New Hampshire are traditionally asked to add their autograph to a sheet that commemorates the particular election cycle. Thompson’s signature took up the bottom left corner of the page, and next to it he wrote, “New Hampshire 1st in the nation, forever!”
After leaving the filing desk Thompson took questions from members of the New Hampshire media, who immediately began grilling him on why he’d waited so long to come back to their state. One reporter asked how Thompson expected to do well in the nation’s first primary without “face to face contact with voters.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
It looked like a presidential rally with a presidential candidate, so it must have been one, right? Yesterday, the Mayor of Columbia, SC proclaimed Oct. 28 "Stephen Colbert Day" in a rally with 1,000 students and community members. At the University of South Carolina, Mayor Bob Coble also called Colbert "South Carolina's favorite son," edging Colbert past Edwards in the "South Carolina favorite son" race.
Colbert thanked the mayor and proclaimed his love for his home state. "I love South Carolina," Colbert said, "let me finish, almost as much as South Carolina loves me." He said his tour through the state is to prove his campaign his real. "To put an end to the vicious rumors that this is not a serious candidacy. Sorry Huffington Post, you are going to have to write about something else."
With rallies and support in his home state, the next step is the outreach. Like many of the other candidates, Colbert has a Facebook group, and could he be beating Barack Obama in one way as well? According to the Facebook group "1,000,000 Strong for Stephen T Colbert", the answer is yes. The group boasts 1,196,757 members as of 1:45pmET today, about 10,000 more than two hours earlier. As a comparison, one of the larger Obama Facebook groups, "Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack)," had 386,490 members at the same time.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Clinton campaign is taking no chances in Iowa. The candidate is up with a new ad there in an apparent follow-up to Obama's thinly veiled attacks on the former First Lady on social security.
In the 30-second TV spot, an announcer highlights Clinton's efforts to fight President Bush "every step of the way to stop him" from privatizing social security.
"These days, it seems like every candidate on earth is coming here for you," the announcer says. "But which candidate has been there for you all along?
Here's the full transcript of "There for You":
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli"Every time you're somewhere, that means you're not somewhere else,"
Fred Thompson said to reporters after he filed here in New Hampshire.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
An official at the Department of Homeland Security says "letters of reprimand" were drafted this weekend and placed in the personnel files of FEMA staffers involved in that controversial press conference.
Officials cited human resources regulations and would not say how many employees received these letters and what the nature of the reprimand is. Officials do not rule out additional measures. All those involved are said to be present at work today and aware of the reprimands.
According to officials, Admiral Harvey Johnson, FEMA's second in command, who was at the podium "had no knowledge" that there were no reporters present at the briefing Oct 23. Officials say Johnson did know that some FEMA staffers would be asking questions (he called on one by name).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- In a speech expected to set the tone for the rest of his primary campaign,
Edwards left no doubt who he was gunning for:
Hillary Clinton.
"When I asked Hillary Clinton to join me in not taking money from Washington lobbyists, she refused," Edwards said. "Not only did she say that she would continue to take their money, she actually defended them. Today Hillary Clinton has taken more money from Washington lobbyists than any candidate from either party -- more money than any Republican candidate. She has taken more money from the defense industry than any candidate from either party. She took more money from Wall Street last quarter than
Rudy Giuliani,
Mitt Romney and
Barack Obama combined."
Edwards railed against the corruption of Washington and corporate America and called listeners to rise up to "guard the promise of America" in the tradition of democracy. He spoke about not specific policies but broad guiding principles and continued to paint himself as an outsider, free of the influence of Washington insiders. Talking to reporters afterward, he promised to continue drawing distinctions between his candidacy and those of his opponents.
From NBC’s Libby Leist
John P. "Pat" Philbin, the now former FEMA director of external affairs who participated in FEMA's fake press conference last week by posing as a reporter and asking a question, has reported to work today at the Director of National Intelligence headquarters in Washington, according to a DNI official.
Philbin was tapped to take over as the head of public affairs for Director of National Intelligence Admiral Mike McConnell before the controversy erupted. But now his new job could be in jeopardy. "He is in meetings" and those who hired Philbin "are looking into the situation," the DNI official said.
*** UPDATED *** Philbin will NOT be director of public affairs for Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell.
Philbin was hired to be Director of Public Affairs for the Director of National Intelligence before the fake FEMA news conference ever happened. His first day was always scheduled to be today.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
We mentioned the Democratic side’s University of Iowa poll results this morning. Here’s the Republican side with Romney having maintained and expanded his lead to a commanding 36.2% to 13.1% over Giuliani. Huckabee is on Giuliani’s heels at 12.8% and Thompson is fourth with 11.4.%. Romney was at 27.8% in August; Huckabee was at just 1.8%. McCain stands at just 6%. Nearly 15% of Republican voters say they are undecided.
The Des Moines Register notes, “Male voters preferred Giuliani and Thompson, the poll authors said, while Romney is the only Republican candidate who did better among women than men. Romney also does very well among the oldest caucusgoers, while Huckabee is succeeding with baby boomers….”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger
On the heels of Sen. Judd Gregg’s endorsement of Romney, Giuliani is set to roll out the endorsement of ex-Connecticut U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson, the Hartford Courant is reporting.
Giuliani will be in “Hartford at 5 p.m. to talk about health care and accept the endorsement of former U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson, one of the authors of the Medicare drug prescription plan,” the Courant’s Capitol Watch blog reports.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Some new ads to talk about from over the weekend and up today. We noted earlier Obama’s a new ad on social security, taking an implicit swipe at Clinton. But Giuliani and Paul also have new ads. Giuliani is up today with a radio ad in New Hampshire, touting the American health-care system and his proposed health-care deductions. Paul went up with his first television ads.
In Giuliani’s ad, he talks about his bout with prostate cancer and that, in the United States there is an 82 percent survival rate as opposed to England, where the survival rate is only 44 percent with "socialized medicine." He then touts his proposed $15,000 family health-care deduction and $7,500 individual health-care deduction. "We have the best health insurance coverage in the world," Giuliani concludes. "We just have to make it better."
Paul’s ads are part of a $1.1 million TV push and $430,000 radio campaign. The first ad shows voters offering words of support, but the ad’s music and the way it’s shot and produced seems like a flashback to an earlier time, say the 1970s. Some blogs have noted complaints from those who say they are Paul supporters over the ad. The second ad is better, with Paul speaking directly into the camera with the Constitution as a backdrop.
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger adds from Manchester, N.H....
Ironically, the ad debuts on the same day as Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced he has prostate cancer. Olmert and Giuliani have met numerous times, dating back to when Giuliani was New York City mayor and Olmert was the mayor of Jerusalem.
Giuliani is expected to continue the healthcare message at a roundtable discussion in Manchester Monday, before continuing on to a town hall in Londonderry.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
When he filed for the New Hampshire primary this morning,
Edwards signed “One America” on the poster signed by all the candidates in the Secretary of State’s office. A crowd of supporters chanted his name in the hallway leading into the media-packed office. He first signed the placard on the legendary desk, then moved to a table in the back office to take reporters' questions.
"What I have to say to New Hampshire primary voters is, if they want to ensure that, in fact, we do what 20 generations have done before us and that we meet the great moral test of our generation, we're going to have to take on a system that's rigged and corrupt and doesn't work," he said in response to a question about the impression that the Democratic nomination is a two-way race.
He said Americans voted not necessarily for Democrats but for change in 2006.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Erin McPike
On the morning of his filing in New Hampshire,
Romney got a nice boost to his Granite State campaign. Senior Sen.
Judd Gregg (R) endorsed Romney and will join him in Concord for his presidential filing.
GOP strategist Mike Murphy, who had a business relationship with Romney until early last year and worked in 2000 for
McCain -- who won the state -- was once unimpressed with Gregg’s backing. Gregg had supported
Bush eight years ago, but Murphy told the New York Times that the help of Gregg’s team was less of a boon and more hype, saying, “They can't even deliver a pizza.”
Still, Romney’s announcement of the endorsement today noted that “in 2004, he received the highest number of votes in any election in the state’s history.”
From NBC's Chuck ToddIs there a new GOP Senate seat now on the Democratic target list? A new
Research 2000 poll matches up Senate GOP leader
Mitch McConnell against a number of potential Democratic challengers. And in every matchup, McConnell is under 50%, with Democratic Rep.
Ben Chandler giving McConnell the closest race, losing 46%-41%. Could McConnell get Daschle-d? His approval rating is a net negative overall, thanks not just to angry Democrats, but also independents.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Obama steps it up -- again? How much was the Obama
New York Times interview -- in which he told the paper he would begin to step up his criticism of Clinton -- was simply about keeping donors on the reservation? Strategists will tell you that there's no faster way to speak to your donor base than thru the Times. By the way, it wasn’t the first time Obama said he would begin contrasting himself with the Democratic front-runner. From the August 15 Washington Post: "Consistently trailing Clinton (N.Y.) in national polls, Obama (Ill.) has sought recently to draw more explicit contrasts between his views and what he has portrayed as the conventional thinking and behavior that have caused problems for the country, especially in the rest of the world. He did that again in the interview Monday afternoon, defending himself against criticism from Clinton and other Democratic rivals for a series of statements on foreign policy and arguing that Clinton's foreign policy views risk continued international perceptions of U.S. arrogance." Is that Post interview from August evidence that, deep down, Obama doesn’t want to go after Clinton the way his supporters and the media want him to? We’ll find out for sure tomorrow night.
*** Great expectations: Obama has clearly raised the stakes for his performance at Tuesday's MSNBC debate at Drexel. The downside to those raised expectations: What if he fails to land a solid blow at Clinton? That could be how the media covers the debate, from the perspective of whether Obama puts her on the defensive or whether she swats him back. Just in time for tomorrow’s debate, a new University of Iowa poll shows that Iowa is a dead heat for the top Democrats. Clinton is at 28.9%; Obama is at 26.6%; and Edwards is at 20%.
***
Two or three presidents? Here’s an interesting preview of what could end up being the longest general election in this nation's history. Giuliani yesterday took Clinton to task over a promise she made about sending envoys around the world to fix the country's international reputation -- the day after she wins the election. Said Giuliani, "The danger is that you have two presidents conducting foreign policy, one with all the power and no moral authority, and one with no power." What Giuliani is touching on is a problem we've identified numerous times about the frontloaded calendar: the possibility of not two presidents -- but really three (the current one and the two nominees). It's a governing nightmare for the current president, but it also could become a political nightmare for the eventual GOP nominee, unless he is able to paint the Dem nominee as undermining the government (as Giuliani attempted with his critique yesterday). Because if this doesn't work, it'll mean the GOP nominee will be constantly stuck between defending President Bush or criticizing him. That’s not a great choice.
*** Mistakes were made…: However, Giuliani’s critique of Clinton was yet another clever way for him to passively admit "mistakes" -- without owning up to any specific ones. Giuliani said he wasn't "criticizing Senator Clinton" for promising to send envoys as president-elect or "charging her with anything." Instead, he wanted to offer her a chance to correct her statement. "I know I make my own set of mistakes, and I wish I could correct things I've said... Let's give her a chance to explain what she meant and withdraw it," Giuliani added in a conciliatory tone, per NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan. Giuliani has dealt with his supposed personal problems very deftly to date by constantly owning up to making "mistakes," making any future revelations all part of the "mistake" umbrella.
***
McCain’s disadvantage in Iowa: It’s too bad for McCain that the Iowa GOP's caucus rules are so different from the Iowa Democrats’. McCain probably scores well in the second-choice category with Iowa Republicans. The problem is that there's no "threshold" system for the Republicans, meaning every caucus is a simple straw vote. Without the opportunity to coalesce second-choice supporters -- a la John Kerry and John Edwards in 2004, when Dean and Gephardt didn't make the 15% threshold in some caucuses -- it makes Iowa that much tougher. Still, second place in Iowa appears to be completely up for grabs, and McCain may have little choice.
*** Sports metaphor time: After last night, we have to ask: What if the Democratic primary fight turns out to be as interesting as the World Series? So many of us are convinced that the Clinton- vs.-somebody-else dynamic will happen because it always does. Then again, sometimes a veteran team waltzes into the World Series and simply sweeps the hot newcomer. (Of course, the Sox found themselves down 3-1 to Cleveland in the ACLS; Clinton has yet to face that kind of adversity.) Also, can Mitt Romney take heart in the juggernaut that is the Boston sports scene? Sure, he likes to disavow his Massachusetts credentials, but let's face it: Boston apparently is for winners right now -- with the Red Sox, and even the Boston College Eagles. Will Massachusetts add Romney to their list of winners come February 2008? Finally, with the Red Sox season at a close, look for renewed speculation of Curt Schilling entering Republican politics. There are still some Republicans holding out hope he'll retire and run against John Kerry.
*** On the trail: It’s a busy day in New Hampshire, where three presidential candidates -- Edwards (at 8:30 am ET), Romney (at 12:30 pm), and Thompson (at 2:45 pm) -- officially file to be on the ballot in the state. Edwards, who’s in the second day of a four-day swing through the Granite State, also gives a speech today in Manchester, in which he will rail against corruption in Washington and a political system that doesn’t work for the people. And in what appears to be the longest concerted effort he has made in ANY state to date, Giuliani spends virtually his entire week in New Hampshire (sans one short stint in Connecticut to pick up an endorsement). Elsewhere today, Obama begins his day campaigning in Cedar Rapids, IA before holding an event in Charlottesville, VA.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 8 days
Countdown to Iowa: 66 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 71 days
Countdown to Michigan: 78 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 82 days
Countdown to Florida: 92 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 99 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 372 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 449 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The Philadelphia Inquirer previews Tuesday’s debate in the city, which will be broadcast on MSNBC. “Tomorrow, the political circus comes to town. Seven Democratic presidential candidates, accompanied by their entourages and the national press corps, will descend on Drexel University for a two-hour debate… The focus will be on Hillary Rodham Clinton - and the pressure, on everyone else. The central question is whether any of them can dent the aura of inevitability that has come to surround her candidacy, or whether she will do anything to damage herself.”
The Sunday New York Times front-paged that Obama would begin “confronting Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton more directly and forcefully, saying Friday that she had not been candid in describing her views on critical policy issues, as he tries to address mounting alarm among supporters that his lack of assertiveness so far has allowed her to dominate the presidential race… In a 53-minute interview … Mr. Obama said Mrs. Clinton had been untruthful or misleading in describing her positions on problems facing the nation. He accused her of ‘straddling between the Giuliani, Romney side of the foreign policy equation and the Barack Obama side of the equation.’ He said that she was trying to ‘sound or vote’ like a Republican on national security issues and that that was ‘bad for the country and ultimately bad for Democrats.’”
The campaign went up with a new TV ad in Iowa yesterday -- which is a subtle dig at Clinton’s insistence that she won’t put any Social Security fixes on the table. In it, Obama says: “We’ve got 78 million baby boomers who are going to be retiring. There’s going to be more money going out than money coming in. If we have failed to have a real, honest conversation about Social Security, it will not get fixed. This is a program that millions of people depend on… I don’t want to just put my finger out to the wind and see what the polls say. I want to bring the country together to solve a problem.”
CONTINUED >>
“In a reversal from past election cycles, Democratic candidates for president are outpacing Republicans in donations from the health care industry, even as the leading Democrats in the field offer proposals that have caused deep anxiety in some of its sectors,” the New York Times front-pages.
CLINTON: Something that may sound good to Democrats in a focus group may have gotten Clinton some unneeded bad press. The
Des Moines Register gets scholars and experts to critique Clinton on her promise to begin sending distinguished Americans around the world, even before she's inaugurated -- which some argue could undermine the sitting US president. (After all, Clinton -- more than any other potential president -- knows better than most of the potential for one president to handoff an international crisis to another. Did someone say Somalia?)
By the way, check out this quote Clinton gave to the Des Moines Register: "Obviously, these are somewhat unusual times," Clinton said in a Des Moines Register interview. "The country is ready to turn the page on the failed policies of the Bush administration. The world is anxious for that to occur."
"Turn the page"? Wonder what Camp Obama thinks about that!
CONTINUED >>
Veteran political observer Walter Shapiro takes a look at the GOP field and wonders which candidate is the most macho. "They have each faced down cancer, hired divorce lawyers, endured thinning hair as they reached the qualifying age for Social Security and compiled unorthodox résumés for big-time candidates. Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson are the "macho men" (yes, the quote marks are ironic) of the Republican presidential race, and their contrasting brands of political masculinity were on display in Iowa late last week… Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee may transcend this Mr. Universe competition through sheer determination as the two major candidates who have invested the most time in Iowa. But both former governors lack the star power to compete in the macho-man bake-off, unless you count as charisma a full head of dark hair and a disciplined MBA-style campaign (Romney) or a puckish sense of humor and a background as a Baptist minister (Huckabee).
McClatchy’s Steven Thomma looks at how GOP candidates are running “hard to the right” in the primaries.
GIULIANI: In case you were wondering, Giuliani Partners
has been in a holding pattern of sorts when it comes to client acquisition, since the principle has been on the campaign trail. "He has stepped back from the firm's activities, sources said, in no small part because he is constantly on the road nowadays. Since spring, the firm has been guided by his friend Peter Powers, a former mayoral campaign manager and deputy mayor, sources said."
CONTINUED >>
It's official: Iowa Democrats have joined the Iowa Republican Party and picked Thursday January 3, as the date they will hold their caucuses, NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reports. Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan says that the state party's decision to move its caucuses to January 3rd, 2008, will give an "appropriate bounce" to the winners in the First-in-the-Nation caucus. "By moving to the third, we've left New Hampshire the ability to go to the eighth, if they so choose," Brennan said in an interview with NBC late Sunday. "That's an appropriate bounce for whoever wins Iowa."
That momentum bump will also apply to "the other folks coming out of Iowa," he added, meaning those who generate media buzz with a strong finish in the state. Brennan noted that by holding both parties' caucuses on the same night, Democrats and Republicans in the state will show a united front to those who challenge Iowa's influence in the nominating process. He said of his GOP counterparts: "We can argue about certain things, but keeping Iowa first is not one of the things we wanted to argue about."
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan deals with the question many on the Democratic side have wondered: While this will help Obama with students who can caucus in their hometowns, what about the out-of-state students, many of whom from neighboring Illinois, who might have turned out for Obama if the caucuses were held when school was in session? There's a school of thought that the person most helped by January 3 is Edwards, since his supporters are assumed to be the most committed caucus-goers. Obama and Clinton are both hoping to expand the caucus universe -- Obama via independents and young voters and Clinton via regular Democrats who never caucus.
CONTINUED >>
NBC's Kevin Corke confirms that Dan Bartlett, former counselor to President Bush, is moving to Texas to join Public Strategies Inc., one of the nation's best-connected public affairs firms. The move reunites Bartlett with Mark McKinnon, the firm's vice chairman, who directed the advertising efforts for Bush's 2000 and 2004 presidential campaigns.
Public Strategies specializes in crisis communications, public opinion, legislative strategy, and complicated corporate scenarios like mergers. When Bartlett left the White House in July, he had worked for Bush for 14 years without a break -- beginning in 1993, when at age 22 he joined the future president's first campaign for Texas governor.
Some trouble for AG nominee Michael Mukasey’s confirmation? McCain and Sen. Lindsay Graham (R) “voiced concerns about Mukasey but neither said whether they may vote against him.” Graham on Face the Nation: “I am convinced as an individual senator, as a military lawyer for 25 years, that waterboarding ... does violate the Geneva Convention, does violate our war crimes statute, and is clearly illegal.” McCain on ABC’s This Week: Anyone who says they don't know if waterboarding is torture or not has no experience in the conduct of warfare and national security."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-TreworgyDES MOINES, IA -- Iowa’s GOP faithful filed into the Hyvee Hall here last night for the state’s Reagan Day Dinner, which featured speeches from most of the party’s presidential candidates. Notably absent were
McCain and
Giuliani, the two candidates often thought to have the hardest road to success in the Iowa caucuses.
The mostly decided crowd came wearing stickers in support of their favorite candidate, and many left after the candidates finished speaking -- skipping the anti-climactic keynote address from GOPAC Chairman Michael Steele.
The speaker thought by many to have given the best speech of the night was Huckabee, who went second to last and touted his ability to beat the Clinton political machine as evidenced by four successful gubernatorial elections in Arkansas. “I’m often asked, ‘Do you think you can win, particularly against Hillary?,’” he said. “Folks, may I suggest to you I’ve been battling against the headwinds of Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton’s political machine in Arkansas more than anybody else running for president. I didn’t just win once, not twice, not three times, but four times in a statewide election against the Clinton political machine. Bill Clinton and Hillary campaigned against me every time I ever ran, and I won and they didn’t.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanPeterborough, NH -- At a town hall here today,
Giuliani offered
Hillary Clinton "a chance to correct her mistake" in saying that she would send emissaries abroad as president-elect of the United States.
Giuliani opened with a quote Clinton had given to the Des Moines Register, in which she said -- as she has done in the past -- that she would send envoys abroad the day after she was elected president." The day after I'm elected, I'm going to be asking distinguished Americans of both political parties to travel around the world on my behalf with a very simple message to the governments and the people alike: The era of cowboy diplomacy is over."
But quoting an expert from that Des Moines Register article, Giuliani said that Clinton's action would seriously undermine the authority of the sitting president of the United States and possibly set a dangerous precedent. "The danger is that you have two presidents conducting foreign policy, one with all the power and no moral authority, and one with no power," he said, quoting James Lindsay, director of the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas at Austin. "Presidents-elect should not exercise their authority before they have it."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal's Tricia MillerDES MOINES, IOWA -- With a community meeting in tiny Coulter in Franklin County yesterday morning,
Edwards has now visited all 99 Iowa counties. The campaign celebrated the milestone last night with about 850 supporters at Drake University in Des Moines.
In Coulter, Edwards staffers gave reporters a memo with data and graphs from pollster Harrison Hickman and Iowa director Jen O'Malley Dillon showing the senator's support in Iowa. They observed that while Edwards has visited all 99 counties in 53 days in Iowa,
Obama has appeared in 59 counties in 52 days and
Clinton 39 counties in 38 days. "With Iowa's proportionally representative system, a campaign that can turn out five additional caucusgoers in 100 rural precincts will almost certainly make greater gains than a rival campaign that can turn out an additional 500 caucusgoers in one precinct," the report said.
The memo continued play up Edwards' chances in the general election. It showed that he would defeat the Republican front-runners in "big blue states" -- specifically California, Massachusetts, and New York -- with smaller margins than his Democratic opponents. But it also found that he was more likely to win in battleground states (Alabama, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Virginia were listed) compared with his Dem rivals.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
CLEAR LAKE, IA --
Mike Huckabee thinks that it’s more than just buzz. More than just speculation. More than just fifteen minutes of fame.
In the words of the legendary classic rock band Boston, it’s more than a feeling.
The Arkansas governor’s band, accompanied by Boston lead guitarist Barry Goudreau, appeared Friday night at Clear Lake’s famous Surf Ballroom -- the rock-and-roll pilgrimage site where Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and JP “The Big Bopper” Richardson played their last show before their plane crashed in a frozen Iowa field in 1959.
The appearance by Huckabee’s band, Capitol Offense, came at the end of a week filled with chatter about his potential as a breakout candidate in the Republican race for the White House. And he sure wasn’t going to miss a chance to use his bass guitar’s booming rhythm to turn that buzz’s volume up.
CONTINUED >>
CORRECTION: Kucinich will NOT be in Florida Saturday. He will be in Dearborn, Mich.
From NBC’s Andy Merten
While in Concord earlier today to file for the New Hampshire primary, Kucinich used his moment with the press to come out harshly against his party’s top-tier presidential contenders’ policies towards Iraq, and also leveled some heavy criticism towards what he perceives to be pending military action toward Iran.
After filling out his primary registration paperwork, the Ohio congressman switched gears to campaign mode, listing off the flaws of Clinton, Edwards and Obama’s voting records on the Iraq War. On Obama: “I’m glad that he gave a speech where he said that he opposed the war. He got elected to the Senate -- what did he do? He voted over and over again to fund the war. He cannot square that, and he’ll never be able to square it.”
He then went on to address Clinton and Edwards. Regarding the New York senator, he said, “She voted a 100 percent of the time to fund the war, except for the last vote we had -- as the clock ran out, both she and Senator Obama, for the first time, decided to vote against funding.” And he dismissed Edwards’ repeated apologies for voting for the 2002 war authorization, saying, “Apologies are a little bit late when you’ve got dead bodies all over the field.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerThe Wisconsin SEIU today endorsed
Obama, citing his "commitment to expanding access to affordable health care and to protecting workers' rights," according to State Council President Dian Palmer in the release. The union has a little more than 15,000 members.
Spokesman Nathan Hoffmann said the union reached out to members through a phone poll asking which presidential candidate they supported and got input from local leaders and those who attended the members political conference in Washington, DC this summer. Then the nine members of the executive board, representing different parts of the state, voted by electronic ballot yesterday.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-TreworgyDespite the departure this week of a key member of his New Hampshire campaign and rumors that he was going to ditch the Granite State by sending a surrogate to file for him,
Thompson will file in person for the New Hampshire primary this Monday at 2:30 pm ET. Thompson, who was supposed to be traveling to Southern California on Monday for fundraising and public events, “postponed” the first day of his trip to the West Coast due to the California wildfires.
The campaign issued a statement early this afternoon saying that the candidate’s trip to California would begin as planned on Tuesday -- with visits to Northern California. Then just a few hours later, the campaign confirmed that Thompson would instead travel to New Hampshire on Monday to file for the state’s primary.
After being absent from the state for eight weeks, one of the Thompson campaign’s New Hampshire advisers -- Dan Hughes -- defected to McCain’s campaign, telling reporters that he didn’t want to be a “token” official for a “token” campaign. Although soon after Hughes’ departure, the campaign announced the addition of Charlie Arlinghaus -- a former executive director of the New Hampshire GOP -- as a senior adviser, there was still speculation that Thompson would opt not to campaign in New Hampshire as part of his southern strategy.
Well, Thompson has found time to visit New Hampshire for the second time on Monday, but there’s no telling what kind of response he will get from a state where voters like candidates who work for their support.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Today,
Biden released a statement criticizing
Clinton's yes vote on the Kyl-Lieberman measure -- and also
Obama for not voting on it. "I voted against the amendment to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization because I don’t trust this administration not to twist its words into a justification for war. Do you think this president abided by the spirit of the 1998 Iraqi Liberation Act?... Unlike Sen. Clinton, I don’t trust this administration to follow the plain meaning of the law. And unlike Sen. Obama, I believe this was a vitally important vote – not one to miss and then complain about later."
Biden adds, "Ratcheting up tension with Iran plays right into President Ahmadinejad’s hands. It allows him to distract the Iranian people from the terrible failures of his leadership. And it keeps oil prices high, which just lines the pockets of Iran’s government. It’s hard to think of a more self-defeating policy."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Two days after
McCain went up with an ad, highlighting his "Tied Up" line from Sunday's debate and criticizing
Clinton for wanting to allocate $1 million for a Woodstock museum, he's back at it.
His campaign released a similar TV ad with another tie-dyed opening also to run in New Hampshire. Wednesday's ad began with a tie-dyed and spinning psychadelic image with The Doors' Light My Fire playing in the background.
Today's ad, titled "Woodstock" opens with scenes of Woodstock and cuts to that same tie-dyed image and Doors music.
The ad directly attacks Clinton and puts her face on screen, as an announcer asks if Woodstock "is worthy of a million of your tax dollars to build a museum? Hillary Clinton think so. John McCain disagrees."
Here is the full transcript of "Woodstock":
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell
On Tuesday, FEMA held what was called a "news briefing" on the California fires, but the questions asked did not come from reporters. They were asked instead by FEMA staffers.
VIDEO:
FEMA apologizes for having staff workers pretend to be reporters at a news briefing on the Southern California wildfires. NBC's Jeannie Ohm has the story.
“It is not a practice that we would employ here at the White House or that we -- we certainly don't condone it,” Press Secretary Dana Perino said. “We didn't know about it beforehand. FEMA has issued an apology, saying that they had an error judgment when they were attempting to get out a lot of information to reporters, who were asking for answers to a variety of questions in regard to the wildfires in California. It's not something I would have condoned. And they, I'm sure, will not do it again.”
One reporter asked Perino who is responsible?
“Well, FEMA is responsible,” she said. “And they have accepted that responsibility, and they issued an apology today. They have admitted that they had an error in judgment. I would agree with that. They've issued an apology. And, you know, you'll have to ask them about why they decided to do that."
Why fake it? Apparently, the FEMA briefing was called with little lead-time and reporters didn't get there fast enough. Instead of acknowledging that reporters were not there they apparently pretended and even used the typical practice of calling a "last question."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPikePOLK COUNTY, Iowa –
Romney this morning suggested that he believes the GOP primary is going to come down to
Giuliani and a more conservative candidate.
“I think it's going to come down to two folks in my view if you look at what's happening with the nomination on our side,” he said of the Republican primary race this morning in an answer to a woman, who said she had left the GOP and asked what the Republicans can do to appeal to a broader range of voters. “And one of the two is going to be somebody who has adopted social issues that are far more like Sen. Clinton's. And someone who is in favor of or who has fought the line-item veto all the way to the Supreme Court." He added, "I don't think that's the right course for our party. It might help us do better in states where we might lose by a smaller margin. But we would still lose.”
 |
|
Later with reporters, he backed off a little on insinuating that he sees the race as a two-man contest between him and Giuliani. He said he hopes he becomes the choice of the Reagan coalition -- the alternative to Giuliani. He pointed out that he has raised $5 million more than Giuliani, but his campaign later said it was closer to $3 million in primary dollars.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann
MOVILLE, IA --
Huckabee's running late to a campaign event at a high school here, because he was taping a TV ad somewhere East of Sioux City, according to campaign sources. It will air in Iowa -- late in the game, likely the week before the caucuses or so.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Every Democratic presidential campaign now seems to be releasing a memo. Just a few minutes ago, Dodd communications director Hari Sevugan sent a missive to the press -- but it has nothing to do with Iran or Kyl-Lieberman. Instead, it's about Dodd's work to deny amnesty to telecom companies who might be engaged in the Administration's domestic surveillance program, and how Clinton and Obama are now following Dodd's lead on the issue.
"[T]his wasn't the first time that Senator Dodd's leadership has caused others to follow and do the right thing. Earlier this spring, convinced that the only way for Congress to end the war in Iraq was to use its power of the purse, Chris Dodd was the first candidate in the Senate to call for a firm deadline for redeployment tied to funding of combat operations. Following Dodd's leadership on the issue, Senators Clinton and Obama, again with varying degrees of clarity, publicly stated that they too would support such a measure."
Sevugan continues, "There is no doubt that leadership is going to be a key issue in this election. But, when voters ask themselves which candidate offers the leadership America needs - leadership that can get results - they are going to draw the distinction between who has actually been leading and who has just been talking about it."
See below for the whole memo...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
On the heels of a St. Anselm College poll showing Ron Paul in fourth place with 7 percent in New Hampshire, the candidate is starting to spend some of those millions he’s raised with radio ads and an upcoming TV ad. But Paul is also stepping up efforts in direct mail. The campaign put together a 12-page biographical pamphlet being mailed out in New Hampshire.
The
New Hampshire Presidential Watch blog reports, “The mailing comes at the same time that Ron Paul will spend $1 million on five New Hampshire television commercials.”
Paul has also spent $430,000 on a new radio ad, which will run in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada. The 60-second ad, an appeal to New Hampshire independents, mentions Paul’s name 11 times and focuses on conservative principles of spending, foreign policy and taxes and mentions “flip-flopping” Republicans and Bill Clinton.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Tricia MillerEdwards introduced his policy on corporate responsibility in a speech called “Renewing the Social Contract” in Des Moines this morning.
“Over the course of our history, every generation of Americans has helped to expand the reach of that compact, moving us ever closer to the America of our ideals, where opportunity is truly shared by all,” he said in prepared remarks. “But now, instead of expanding further, our social compact is falling apart.”
Edwards called for a “new universal retirement account requiring every business to automatically enroll its workers in at least one plan: a traditional pension, a 401(k), or an IRA.” He also reiterated his support for universal health care, blaming lobbyists and insurance companies for blocking it thus far, and called again for the strengthening of organized labor. He said his administration would enact laws encouraging transparency in corporate reporting and more rights for shareholders, including “a say on executive pay.”
Edwards used the speech to continue his theme of rooting out corruption in Washington, as well as in corporate boardrooms. He brought the speech to a close with a quote from John F. Kennedy: "John F. Kennedy once said, 'The heart of the question is whether all Americans are to be afforded equal rights and equal opportunities, whether we are going to treat our fellow Americans as we want to be treated.'"
From NBC's Mark Murray
We referred to it in First Thoughts, but we didn't post it last night (since we had left the office when it came out), but here is the entire Clinton memo responding to the earlier Obama missive.
CONTINUED >>
From Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
*** Dueling memos: After the Bush Administration’s announcement yesterday of sanctions against Iran, which sparked another round of infighting among the Democrats, close observers of the Dem race just knew they were coming: the campaign memos. The Obama camp fired off theirs first yesterday afternoon, blasting Clinton for voting for the Lieberman-Kyl measure (which Obama argues contains language offering a new rationale for keeping US troops in Iraq). Then Team Hillary responded with its own memo: “Stagnant in the polls and struggling to revive his once-buoyant campaign, Sen. Obama has abandoned the politics of hope and embarked on a journey in search of a campaign issue to use against Senator Clinton. Nevermind that he made the very argument he is now criticizing back in November 2006. Nevermind that he co-sponsored a bill designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a global terrorist group back in April… [I]f Senator Obama really believed this measure gave the President a blank check for war, shouldn’t he have been in the Senate on the day of the vote, speaking out, and fighting against it?”
*** The last word? Later last night, Obama spokesman Bill Burton tried to get in the last word, when he emailed reporters: “All of the political explanations and contortions in the world aren't going to change the fact that, once again, Senator Clinton supported giving President Bush both the benefit of the doubt and a blank check on a critical foreign policy issue. Barack Obama just has a fundamentally different view.” If you wanted any more proof that Iran has become THE issue in the Dem field, this is it.
 |
|
 |
|
***
Dodd and Edwards pile on: While much of the focus on Iran was between the Clinton and Obama camps, Dodd and Edwards got into the act, too. Edwards, in particular, said in a statement: "I learned a clear lesson from the lead up to the Iraq War in 2002: if you give this president an inch, he will take a mile -- and launch a war. Senator Clinton apparently learned a different lesson. Instead of blocking George Bush's new march to war, Senator Clinton and others are enabling him once again.” Edwards, meanwhile, gives a speech today in Des Moines, where he will propose granting shareholders new rights, capping unfair levels of executive pensions, and modernizing labor laws.
***
Can’t anyone pick one team? In addition to that back-and-forth over Iran yesterday, Clinton took a rare shot at Giuliani -- who mentions the New York senator constantly in his remarks -- by bringing up Rudy’s stated support for the Red Sox in the World Series. “I have been a fan, and I remain a fan of the New York Yankees. No changes, no looking to curry favor with anyone else,” she said. Of course, Clinton might not be the messenger for this kind of swipe, especially since Clinton has said she roots for both the Chicago Cubs and the New York Yankees. When NBC’s Tim Russert at least month’s debate asked Clinton whom she’d root for if the Cubs and Yanks played in the World Series, Clinton replied: “Well, I would probably have to alternate sides.”
***
The Brownback primary: By meeting yesterday with Giuliani, Brownback seemed close to possibly endorsing Giuliani. Still, Brownback didn’t officially confirm whether he would endorse any candidate in the GOP field, NBC/National Journal’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports, but he did say that he was open to meeting with any presidential candidate who was interested in meeting with him. “Don’t assume that we’re not [setting up a meeting with Brownback],” said a spokesman for Thompson’s campaign. But the campaign would not confirm if it has tried or will try to arrange a sit down. Yet as our friends at Hotline suggested yesterday: Just how valuable is Brownback’s endorsement, given that he was registering in the low single digits in the polls?
*** Oh, Obama where art thou: The Obama Gospel Tour, which has drawn criticism for including a controversial singer, kicks off at 7:00 pm ET in South Carolina -- with performers Mary Mary, Fred Hammond, Hezekiah Walker and Beverly Crawford. The controversial singer, Donnie McClurkin, will perform on Sunday. On that same day, the openly gay pastor that the Obama camp added to the tour -- Andy Sidden -- will speak.
***
On the trail: Biden is in New Hampshire, where he attends an AARP forum in Manchester before heading to Derry; Clinton -- after her big party last night -- is down in Chappaqua; Giuliani raises money in Texas; Huckabee stumps in Iowa and plays bass guitar with his band Capitol Offense at the at "Rockin' in the Caucuses: 2007-2008 Road to the White House"; McCain is in Iowa and California; Obama holds campaign events in Columbus, OH and St. Louis; Paul attends the Arab-American Institute National Leadership Conference in Dearborn, MI; and Romney campaigns in Iowa. Also, Elizabeth Edwards is in New Hampshire, and Michelle Obama is in Iowa.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 11 days
Countdown to Iowa: 69 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 74 days
Countdown to Michigan: 81 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 85 days
Countdown to Florida: 95 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 102 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 375 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 452 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The New York Times on the Bush Administration’s announcement yesterday of sanctions against Iran: “[A]fter 18 months in which the administration has touted the virtues of collective action against Iran by the United States and its allies, the sanctions are a major turn toward unilateralism. The shift represents a tacit acknowledgment that the diplomatic strategy pressed most vigorously by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been ineffective, and it prompted fresh criticism on Thursday from Russia: “Why make the situation worse, bring it to a dead end, threaten sanctions or even military action?” President Vladimir V. Putin asked, in a report by Agence France-Presse.”
VIDEO: Is the U.S. headed to war with Iran? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice talks with TODAY's Matt Lauer. The
Washington Post: “In approving far-reaching, new unilateral sanctions against Iran, President Bush signaled yesterday that he intends to pursue a strategy of gradually escalating financial, diplomatic and political pressure on Tehran, aimed not at starting a new war in the Middle East, his advisers said, but at preventing one… Even so, the administration's actions yesterday immediately rekindled fears among Democrats and other countries that the administration is on a path toward war. Bush's charged rhetoric in recent months, including a warning that Iran could trigger a "nuclear holocaust," and his close consultations with hard-liners … have led many outside the White House to conclude that the president will order airstrikes to eliminate any Iranian nuclear capability.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The AP’s Nedra Pickler writes in her analysis that the Dem race is pretty much Hillary’s to lose. “Democratic insiders, including some working on various 2008 campaigns who spoke on condition of anonymity, agree that barring a major stumble, Clinton is all but sure to win the nomination if she wins the opening contest in Iowa. She is polling well in the states that follow, and no one else would be able to challenge her unless an Iowa loss made her look vulnerable. ‘If Hillary wins Iowa, she can practically start shopping for a running mate,’ said California-based Democratic strategist Dan Newman. But that's a big if.”
 |
|
Looking at the national polls, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook observes in his latest National Journal column that Clinton has a high floor -- but also a low ceiling. “Unless Clinton becomes dramatically less polarizing, which seems improbable, she is likely to maintain her slim but consistent advantage. But will it ever widen to the point where a misstep or a bit of misfortune wouldn’t give her Republican opponent the lead? That’s the key question. She seems to be putting the Democratic nomination away, but can she ever put the general election away? Or will she always have no better than a narrow lead in the polls, never quite beyond striking distance from her GOP rival?”
CONTINUED >>
Last night's AARP forum in Iowa -- which featured McCain and Huckabee -- was downright chummy, notes NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann. Despite a sharp difference on one issue (fair tax), and some joshing jabs about the merits of senatorial vs. gubernatorial experience, it was clear that the two candidates like each other. After the forum, Dann talked to a number of attendees who raved about both candidates for their candor and civility. "They weren't at each others' throats," said Wade Sembach, an auto dealer from Sioux City. A friend echoed that the small venue was "intimate" and that the two candidates -- especially Huckabee -- are rightfully gaining momentum.
GIULIANI: The
Washington Post profiles Bill Simon, the Giuliani campaign’s policy director, who earlier ran for governor of California. “Starting last fall, when Giuliani first called Simon and said he was running for president, Simon, 56, has been more responsible than anyone for Giuliani's policy education, and he has been the agent charged with managing the sometimes eager, sometimes awkward relationship between the former mayor of a liberal city and the conservative establishment.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times: “The chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party is recommending holding the state’s presidential caucuses on Jan. 3, joining Iowa Republicans in opening the race for the White House at the earliest date in the history of the nominating contest. The state central committee of the Iowa Democratic Party will convene Sunday evening by telephone to set the official date of the party’s caucuses, Carrie Giddins, a party spokeswoman, said Thursday. Party officials are expected to endorse the recommendation of the chairman, Scott Brennan.”
More: “If the Iowa date is ratified for Jan. 3, attention will turn to New Hampshire, where Secretary of State William Gardner is soon expected to set the state’s primary date.”
Indeed, Gardner hinted that New Hampshire’s primary might be held Jan. 8 -- now that Iowa appears it will go to Jan. 3 and Michigan appears to have backed off having its primary on the same day as New Hampshire.
"Under the circumstances, Iowa is certainly being helpful," Gardner told the Des Moines Register. "I respect the tradition our two states have observed and have been holding out hope that it could be continued. And we're getting closer."
The
Los Angeles Times: “The House on Thursday approved a revised children's health insurance bill that Democrats said addressed Republican concerns, but President Bush again threatened to veto it. The 265-142 tally fell short of the two-thirds needed to override a veto, but it raised the stakes in the political confrontation over children's healthcare.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Close watchers of the Democratic presidential contest probably knew this was coming in the wake of the Bush Administration's action today regarding Iran (and the new round of back-and-forth over the issue among the Dem contenders).
A campaign memo.
This one is from Obama foreign policy adviser Greg Craig, who compares Obama's position on Iran and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard with Clinton's. The gist: "The current debate about the wisdom of Senator Clinton's support for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment points up significant differences in Senator Obama's approach to the use of force in Iraq as compared with Senator Clinton's approach... Having seen what this Administration -- with its expansive view of its executive power -- has done in the past with congressional resolutions, it is naïve to support the Kyl-Lieberman amendment without simultaneously seeking explicit assurances that the president will never cite the amendment as a legal basis for deploying US troops to counter Iranian influence whether in Iraq or Iran."
What to expect next, if the past is precedent: a Clinton memo, probably pointing out that Obama didn't actually vote against the Kyl-Lieberman measure; that Obama -- like Clinton -- supports designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization; and that Obama even co-sponsored a measure doing that earlier this year.
Read below for the entire Obama campaign memo...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerCORNING, IA -- At his first event today
Edwards told an audience here that Democrats need to stand up to efforts to go to war with Iran. He again ran down the Senate vote a few weeks ago in which
Biden and
Dodd voted against declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, but
Clinton voted in favor. Today, the
Bush Administration designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction and of the elite Quds Force as a supporter of terrorism
"You cannot give Bush and Cheney this kind of authority," Edwards said. "And here are the consequences. The consequences are, today the administration declared the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. And they said they’re also proliferating weapons of mass destruction. So here we go again. Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?”
Edwards also took aim at
Romney, who told a New Hampshire voter that he would consider military action in Iran.
“And then I listened to Romney yesterday," Edwards said, "a Republican who’s running for president, talking about Iran, and he said, among other things, he’d be willing to bombard Iran. You know, you expect that from Republicans, but the Democrats don’t need to be helping."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
While spending a few days in Alabama with his family celebrating his son Sammy’s first birthday,
Thompson took time to call in to the conservative Laura Ingraham Show -- to talk about the GOP presidential race,
Giuliani's lead in the national polls, and Rudy's record on illegal immigration.
“You’ve got various categories of people out there, so-called big shots, but you’ve got an awful lot of people out there, much greater numbers, who are just average folks,” Thompson said. “It seems to me, like in terms of the traditional GOP fundraisers, still quite a few of them are on the sidelines. I haven’t noticed a real rush to anybody, including Rudy. And as far as the national polls are concerned, I haven’t seen that he’s picking up much.”
A few days after rolling out his own anti-illegal immigration proposal, Thompson also kept up his criticisms of Giuliani on his support of illegal immigration while mayor of New York. “He said if you come here and work hard, and you happen in undocumented status, you’re one of the people that we want in this city, you’re somebody that we want to protect,” Thompson said. “So that pretty much gives you his thoughts on it. I don’t think he’s moved away from it to tell you the truth. He teamed up, apparently with MoveOn.org, under George Soros to oppose the anti-immigration forces, so-called, so I’m not sure what he would say about the future."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliHOOKSETT, NH -- Former Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright today said that
Hillary Clinton has been "very clear" in stating that she believes President Bush cannot go to war without congressional authorization.
Albright, who was campaigning for Clinton here in New Hampshire, also defended the senator's vote on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, which her rivals have said warned will be used by Bush as justification for military action. "[The vote] was one in order to make very clear that the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guard was one of the most extremist groups within Iran and that it was important to sanction them in order to be able to move toward robust diplomacy," Albright said in an interview.
Albright also noted that Clinton spoke on the Senate floor in February to say she believed Bush couldn't go to war without Senate authorization. And she pointed to Clinton's co-sponsoring an amendment by Sen.
Jim Webb (D-VA) stipulating that no federal funds could be used for military action in Iran. "So I think she's made her position very clear," Albright said. "She is against the President using force in Iran without using any kind of congressional authorization. And she has made very clear that she believes that robust diplomacy needs to be used in order to make difficult and impossible really for Iran to have a nuclear program."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Liberty Matias
Biden
was the fourth candidate to speak at the Families USA Health Care Forum, following
Kucinich this morning and
Clinton and
Edwards earlier this month. While Kucinich discussed the "is health insurance a right all Americans have or a privilege" argument, Biden countered, saying, "We are well beyond that argument." He stressed national health insurance is needed for America to be competitive in the global economy.
Biden's plan is not a universal health-care plan, but emphasizes a way for employers to more easily provide health care. The plan has three parts: savings with modernization; health insurance for every child in America; and catastrophic health-care coverage. Health insurance companies would not be required to pay for anything above $55,000 for catastrophic injuries or illnesses; the government would pay the rest. Biden also proposed opening federal health-care insurance options to the general public and allowing people to buy in to Medicare at age 55.
*** UPDATE *** The Biden campaign clarifies that there are actually four parts to Biden's plan as detailed on the campaign's
Web site: (1) Cover all Children; (2) Access for Adults; (3) Reinsurance For Catastrophic Cases; (4) Encouraging Prevention and Modernization.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and NBC/NJ's Carrie DannNBC News has confirmed that the Iowa Democratic Party's state central committee will meet -- by conference call -- on Sunday at 9:00 pm ET to vote on the date to hold the Democratic caucuses.
The buzz is that the Democrats there will pick January 3, the same date Iowa Republicans have selected. But we won't know until the state central committee votes.
*** Update *** Per Iowa Democratic Party spokeswoman Carrie Giddins, on Sunday's call, the party chairman will recommend that the committee members vote to move the caucus date to January 3rd, NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reports.
The Iowa Democratic Party will send out the official release announcing the meeting at 3:00 pm ET today.
There are approximately 50 people on the state central committee. Also, it is safe to say that the date will be decided definitively by the end of that call on Sunday.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Dodd just released a statement on the Bush Administration's announcement that it's designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization -- and also on, it seems, Hillary Clinton's vote last month for Lieberman-Kyl.
"I recognize the obvious threat a nuclear Iran poses to the region and beyond, and that we must stop Iran's continued support for international terrorism," Dodd said. "Unfortunately, the action taken by the Administration today comes in the context of escalating rhetoric and drumbeat to military action against Iran. I am deeply concerned that once again the President is opting for military action as a first resort."
Dodd adds in the statement, "The aggressive actions taken today by the Administration absent any corresponding diplomatic action is exactly what we all should have known was coming when we considered our vote on the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, and smacks, frankly, of a dangerous step toward armed confrontation with Iran."
***UPDATE*** Read more for Edwards' and Obama's statements:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger For the past few days, I have been defending
Rudy Giuliani on the whole Yankees-Red Sox thing. I am a die-hard Yankees fan myself and have been known to travel to New York in October if I can find a ticket. I never root for the Red Sox, but my father does. He's an American League fan, he says, and roots for the American League team in the World Series. I distinctly remember watching the Mets-Red Sox series in 1986. I was rooting for the Mets because my friends were Mets fans (I was 8, after all); he was rooting for the Red Sox, but neither of us were happy about it.
He even rooted for them in 2004, while I backed the Cardinals, because my college roommate is from St. Louis, and I spent a lot of time around Cardinals paraphernalia.
So while the New York tabloids berated Rudy this week, I gave him a pass. If it's good enough for my dad, it's good enough for a presidential candidate. So what if he is campaigning in Boston when he says it, or is talking to Red Sox fans in New Hampshire all day? Maybe he and my dad are cut from the same cloth.
But today...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) today officially said he will not run for Sen. John Warner's (R) soon-to-be open seat in 2008. That leaves former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the presidential race earlier this year, the leading Republican contender for the seat. In early polling, Gilmore is 30 points behind presumptive frontrunner former Gov. Mark Warner (D).
"The politial climate is not right," Davis' Communications director Brian McNicoll told First Read. "He was upset they chose a convention and not a primary, made it too much of an uphill battle."
Davis represents the more moderate Northern Virginia Washington, D.C. suburbs. A primary would have helped his cause; a convention would have stacked the deck against him. Davis was also more than 30 points behind Mark Warner in early polling.
Another factor, McNicoll said, is that Davis' wife is also running for re-election in a tough race. "He's campaigning for his wife now," McNicoll said, "and that would make three long years in a row of doing nothing but campaigning."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
A leading House Democrat has unveiled a long-awaited tax reform package, including a "fix" for the Alternative Minimum Tax that would cost $800 billion over the next 10 years.
To pay for it, Ways and Means Chairman
Charlie Rangel (D) proposes that married couples earning more than $200,000 pay a "replacement tax" of 4%, and 4.6% on income in excess of $500,000. Rangel says that the AMT is now affecting 23 million taxpayers.
Rangel would also increase the standard deduction and expand the number of lower-income people who are eligible for the Earned Income Tax Credit. He says that all total, 90 million Americans will get a tax cut if this legislation were to become law.
Rangel says that he will also pay for it by closing loopholes in existing laws. He would limit itemized deductions and personal exemptions for high income individuals, prevent hedge fund managers from using offshore tax havens to defer taxes on compensation, and several other measures.
Republicans are already blasting the proposal, accusing Rangel of "selling snake oil," and calling the 90 million figure "pure hokum." They see the 4% replacement tax as "a crushingly high" tax rate that will affect 10 million people. In fact, Romney just put out a statement criticizing the proposal -- and linking it to Hillary Clinton. "Today, Democrats in Washington, D.C. are unveiling a massive tax increase bill for the American people. Our nation cannot afford the Democrats and a Democrat President like Hillary Clinton who will sign tax increases into law."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Liberty Matias
At the Kaiser Family Foundation's Healthcare Forum,
Kucinich laid out his single-payer health-care plan while attacking
Clinton and
Edwards for paying too much attention to insurance companies and not American people. "There is no difference between Senator Clinton, Senator Edwards, and Mitt
Romney," he said, accusing the media of not exposing how similar each of their plans is.
Under Kucinich's plan, a person can choose a physician of his or her choice to get the care they need by simply presenting a card after signing an application. Kucinich said this would work because the doctor does not have to go through an insurance company. He plans to finance the program through payroll taxes. The federal government would buy out for-profit companies with treasury bonds.
Kucinich accused Clinton and Edwards of having a debate on insurance care and not health insurance for the people. "When I run for President of the United States," Kucinich said, "I cannot be bought or bossed by any interest group. The government's inability to function is because it is influenced by interest groups. I've been doing this for 40 years. Government works. The question is who is working for -- insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies. When I'm President of the United States, it will work for the people."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal's Erin McPike and NBC's Mark Murray
MANCHESTER, NH -- Right off the bat at a health-care forum here,
Romney took a clear swipe at
Giuliani's recent comment that he would be rooting for the Red Sox because he always supports the American League. Romney asked, "Anyone here a Red Sox fan?" And after the cheers he asked if they were also Yankees fans. To laughter he said, "You're one or the other, but probably not both, right?"
But is Romney the best messenger to make this dig? Earlier this year while stopping by the Iowa-Iowa State college football game, Romney told reporters that he was rooting for both teams.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** “Bush Lite” revisited? Back in the summer, during the scrum over
 |
|
negotiating with unsavory world leaders, Obama began referring to Clinton as “Bush Lite” -- after she called Obama “naïve” for saying that he’d be willing to meet with those leaders in his first year in office. With the Bush Administration today designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization, does that give Obama another opportunity to play that card? Yes, Clinton voted with 75 other senators last month (including Obama friend Dick Durbin) on the non-binding Lieberman-Kyl measure calling for much of the same thing the Bush Administration does today. But she was the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so. Clinton’s campaign last weekend sent out a mailer to Iowa voters, arguing that her vote actually was a call for diplomacy. Condoleezza Rice, in fact, will say the same thing today, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell notes. But that’s not an argument that will be accepted by the anti-war left, Mitchell adds, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. In short, today's action by the Administration will place her in the uncomfortable position of being on the same side as the Bush hardliners. But do Clinton’s rivals -- Barack "I didn't vote on Lieberman-Kyl" Obama -- have the credibility to hit her on the issue?
*** Is Rudy the true Bush heir? A lot has been made of the fact that there's no one officially running for Bush's third term -- i.e. no sitting veep who’s making a White House bid. Well, as far as foreign policy philosophy, there does appear to be a Bush-Cheney soul mate in the race: Giuliani. The New York Times today takes a look at Rudy’s advisers and notes, "Giuliani is consulting with, among others, a particularly hawkish group of advisers and neoconservative thinkers.” This association with neoconservatives certainly is a boon for
 |
|
Giuliani in the primaries, since it helps blur his views on social issues. But does it help him in a general? A quick glance at the polls suggests that the country is happy to turn the page on the Bush Administration and its foreign policy. There’s plenty of other Rudy news today, including reports that there was a mob plot to kill him back in 1986 (which could bolster his tough-guy image) and a Village Voice article that has Giuliani claiming to the 9/11 Commission that he didn’t have much knowledge of Al Qaeda before 9/11 (which doesn’t help his security credentials).
*** Sam and Rudy, sitting in a tree…? A senior Giuliani campaign official has confirmed
to NBC/National Journal’s Matthew Berger that Giuliani will meet today with Brownback, who dropped out of the presidential race last week. After addressing the Values Voter Summit on Friday, Brownback said that the GOP will nominate a pro-life nominee -- and seemed to rule out endorsing the former New York mayor. Was that a head fake? ? Before that statement, rumors were swirling that Brownback, who apparently is no fan of Romney and is worried his good friend John McCain can’t win the GOP nod, was flirting with the idea of supporting Giuliani.
***
Six…TEE Candles: The big political event today is Clinton’s 60th birthday party tonight in New York City, which features Billy Crystal (who is emceeing), Elvis Costello and the Wallflowers (who are performing), husband Bill Clinton (who is headlining), and Chuck Schumer, Eliot Spitzer, Jon Corzine, and Charlie Rangel (who are honorary co-chairs). Interestingly, per NBC/National Journal’s Athena Jones, the entire party is closed to the press -- except for Hillary’s remarks, Bill’s own speech, and an appearance by a “surprise guest.” By the way, how much does the 60th birthday celebration serve as a reminder of the age gap between her and Obama -- which could help the Clinton camp make its experience argument, or could help the Obama camp suggest it’s time for a new generation to take over?
*** But do voters prefer Lee Greenwood? Hillary’s star-studded birthday bash raises this question: Do all the famous, cool, hip stars that Democratic candidates tend to attract actually help them at the ballot box? In 2004, John Kerry had everyone from Bruce Springsteen to Death Cab for Cutie helping his campaign effort (versus Bush’s lineup of country singers and Christian rockers). But where did that get Kerry? And don’t forget that 2004 Kerry-Edwards fundraiser, where Whoopi Goldberg delivered X-rated insults at Bush -- which turned into a distraction for the campaign. Is that why much of Hillary’s b-day party is closed to the press? Because she doesn’t want to be filmed with Hollywood types? If so, is that one reason why she and her handlers would run a better campaign than Kerry did?
*** Oops, Joe Biden did it again: Just when it seemed like Joe Biden was making steady progress in Iowa, he showed why so many smart Democrats worry about Biden on a national ticket. In a sit-down interview with the Washington Post, Biden gave a "lengthy critique of Bush administration education policies" and then attempted to explain why some schools perform better than others -- in Iowa, for instance, compared with the District.
"There's less than 1 percent of the population of Iowa that is African American. There is probably less than 4 or 5 percent that are minorities. What is in Washington? So look, it goes back to what you start off with, what you're dealing with," Biden said. He went on to discuss the importance of parental involvement in reading to children and how "half this education gap exists before the kid steps foot in the classroom." Right after the interview, the campaign sent out a clarification.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Biden participates in the Families USA forum at the Kaiser Family Foundation in DC; Edwards stumps in Iowa; Giuliani fundraises in Ohio; McCain campaigns in Iowa before attending the AARP forum along with Huckabee; and Romney is in New Hampshire, where he speaks on health care in Manchester and then holds an “Ask Mitt Anything” town hall in Exeter.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 12 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 23 days
Countdown to Iowa: 70 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 75 days
Countdown to Michigan: 82 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 86 days
Countdown to Florida: 96 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 103 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 376 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 453 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The Washington Post broke the news. “The Bush administration plans to roll out an unprecedented package of unilateral sanctions against Iran today, including the long-awaited designations of its Revolutionary Guard Corps as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction and of the elite Quds Force as a supporter of terrorism, according to senior administration officials… The new sanctions will empower the United States to financially isolate a large part of Iran's military and anyone inside or outside Iran who does business with it, U.S. officials said. The measures could affect hundreds of foreign companies by squeezing them to drop Iranian business or risk U.S. sanctions.”
The
New York Times adds that this “is the first time that the United States has taken such steps against the armed forces of any sovereign government.” Per NBC’s Libby Leist, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will appear jointly today at 9:00 am ET to announce the sanctions.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The Washington Post: "After a lengthy critique of Bush administration education policies, Biden attempted to explain why some schools perform better than others -- in Iowa, for instance, compared with the District. ‘There's less than 1 percent of the population of Iowa that is African American. There is probably less than 4 or 5 percent that are minorities. What is in Washington? So look, it goes back to what you start off with, what you're dealing with,’ Biden said. He went on to discuss the importance of parental involvement in reading to children and how "half this education gap exists before the kid steps foot in the classroom."
The Biden campaign moved quickly to clarify the senator's remarks in a statement: "This was not a race-based distinction, but a discussion of the problems kids face who don't have the same socio-economic support system (and all that implies -- nutrition, pre K, etc.) entering grade school and the impact of those disadvantages on outcomes."
CLINTON: Here's something the Clinton campaign may not have expected: a 527 attacking Clinton from the left in the early states. Politico's Smith reports on the group, Democratic Courage, and their leaders who have no official ties to any campaign -- but have given to Edwards in the past.
CONTINUED >>
Today, Huckabee and McCain will be the sole participants at a scaled-down AARP forum in Sioux City, IA, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann reports. The event, which will focus on health care, Social Security, and senior issues, was to be broadcast nationally on PBS and on Iowa Public TV. But those plans were scrapped after the other major candidates decided to skip the event. Dann notes that the prominent no-shows say something important about the GOP race. At best, it demonstrates that Republicans don't view Iowa as the same sacred cow that Democratic candidates do. Iowa opinion-setter David Yepsen called the GOP candidates out in his column this weekend for that very reason, and the Sioux City Journal's scathing
editorial last week called their decision "a slap in the face" to Iowa Republicans.”
GIULIANI: The
New York Post looks at the mob plot to kill Giuliani back in 1986, when he was a federal prosecutor. The mob plot was revealed yesterday in the FBI papers made public during the trial of a former FBI supervisor. The five New York crime families met to discuss whether or not to put a hit out on Giuliani, but they voted 3-2 against it. The ones pushing the idea were eventual
capo di tutti capi John Gotti and Colombo crime family chief Carmine "The Snake" Persico.
CONTINUED >>
A new Quinnipiac Univ. poll in FL gives a nice boost Giuliani's electability argument, as he's back on top of Clinton in a head-to-head. Both Clinton and Rudy have large primary leads.
Meanwhile, St. Anselm will release a poll showing Clinton and Romney with “solid leads” in
NH.
Tired of those calls from politicians looking for your vote… or your money. Well, one tired voter deluged with such calls started a national
political do-no-call registry at
www.stoppoliticalcalls.orgThe
Politico’s Wilner writes that “it’s worth revisiting the long-standing tradition that U.S. presidential nominees do not travel overseas during a general election campaign. There’s a strange dichotomy between running to be the leader of the free world … and being unable to leave the United States while doing it. Especially now that the candidates on both sides, not just Democrats, are taking potshots at George W. Bush’s foreign policy. Republican John McCain recently mocked Bush’s gaze into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s eyes. So why not walk the walk outside the U.S.?”
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
In 1972, presidential candidate
George McGovern and then-campaign manager
Gary Hart hatched a plan to use a quirky nomination contest in an oft-ignored Midwestern state as the platform to the Democratic nomination. In 1984, Hart –- as a candidate himself -– catapulted from single-digit poll numbers to a near-defeat of 'inevitable' candidate
Walter Mondale after a surprise showing in his old stomping grounds.
So who better to put the 2008 race in the Hawkeye state under the microscope than Hart himself? "It's wide open," he says of the Democratic contest, which many have compared to his own run for the nomination in 1984. Then, as now, voters were courted on one hand by an insurgent candidate accused of lacking substance, and by an established one popularly considered to be the "inevitable" nominee on the other.
Hart, the one-time contender whose boyish good looks and idealistic message of 1984 have been compared to those of a certain Illinois senator, stops short of drawing too many parallels between his '84 campaign and Obama's. "I had no money," he said in an interview Tuesday evening. "Senator Obama has 75 million dollars. I had a tiny, tiny fraction of that in my startup days. So he has a huge advantage in that respect."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten
Dodd became the first presidential candidate to politicize the Southern California wildfires today while speaking in Chicago at an International Association of Fire Fighters conference. Saying that he is proud the federal government “has gotten funding down to those cities and jurisdictions” affected by the fires, he added, “For a fire this size, we still need more; I think we can do more, and I will.”
Asked by reporters to elaborate after his speech, the Connecticut senator cited the
Bush Administration’s failure to provide sufficient funding to first responders. “The administration, of course, didn’t fully fund the Fire Act and Safer Bill,” he said, “so we’re still short. The new system, which we’ve written, is a risked-based system, which California would obviously qualify for.”
He also cited over-exertion of the National Guard due to the war in Iraq as causing a shortage in area first responders -- a criticism of the Bush Administration that was
also raised by Democrats in May, after a deadly tornado struck Kansas.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At the GOP debate on Sunday, McCain got a standing ovation for his line criticizing Clinton for wanting to allocate $1 million for a Woodstock museum.
"Now my friends, I wasn't there," McCain said of the rock-and-roll festival. "I'm sure it was a cultural and pharmaceutical event. I was, I was tied up at the time."
His campaign has now created a
30-second ad, called "Tied Up," from what the campaign calls his "classic line." The ad, which will run in New Hampshire, begins with a spinning tie-dyed image and The Doors playing in the background. It cuts back to a serious-looking McCain at the debate delivering his line. When he says "tied up at the time," the image cuts away again, this time to video of McCain as a prisoner of war.
"No one can be President of the United States that supports projects such as these," McCain concludes.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Democrats are poised to give it another go and put the SCHIP health-care bill -- with some tweaks -- back on the House floor tomorrow.
At of this writing, plans are being finalized. But if all goes as Democrats hope, the measure will remain largely intact, with enough relatively minor changes to get more Republicans to go along and work towards a veto-proof majority. A group of moderate Republicans have huddled this week with the Democratic leadership in an effort to seek common ground.
To allay their concerns -- and give some of them who were suffering politically for voting against it enough cover to switch their votes -- the bill will:
-- require that any adults who are enrolled in the program be off the rolls within one year;
-- cap income eligibility at 300% of the poverty level, with New Jersey (now at 350%) grandfathered in;
-- amplify language forbidding illegal immigrants from enrolling.
Democrats have felt all along that they are in a winning position on this issue. Entreaties from the Administration for compromise are interpreted as a sign of weakness and provide a disincentive for negotiation.
This is essentially starting over in the process, albeit in an expedited way. The Senate would still have to act, and the president would then have to decide all over again whether or not to veto the measure, should it pass. The total increase is still expected to be in the $35 billion range, with 10 million children covered.
From NBC's Kristin Wilson
Got an extra $8,000 sitting around?
If so, good -- because, according to the Congressional Budget Office's report on the costs of the Iraq War, the $2.4 trillion price tag over the next decade comes out to some $8,000 for every man, woman, and child in the United States.
CBO Director Peter Orszag met with some of the members of the House Budget Committee today -- 13 of the 21 Democrats, and 3 of the 15 Republicans -- with the ominous news that "it's clear under analysis that the nation is on an unstable fiscal path ... with the higher debt and interest costs, is going to cause severe economic dislocation, which are exacerbated by war costs."
Orszag said a big factor in the large price tag is the reset costs. Reset costs originally meant that the money would be spent to return military brigades to the same standing as before they were deployed -- i.e. fixing tanks and vehicles, or if irreparable, replacing them with similar equipment.
However, an additional CBO study found that, rather than repairing or replacing equipment, the military is upgrading or getting something new. Orszag used the example of the 120 M-182 tanks that are being requested with new funding. At the cost of "$5 million per tank, this cost is more than returning the damaged tank to its original state."
"If you fully fund these requests, the military will be in a better position in terms of equipment than before the war," Orszag told them.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia MillerGLENWOOD, IA --
Edwards again drew distinctions at the American Legion Hall here between his position on Iraq and Iran and
Clinton’s. Over the last couple weeks, it has become part of Edwards' stump speech to criticize Clinton for her vote recognizing the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. Starting in New Hampshire a week ago, he reacted to her advisers telling the New York Times Clinton was switching from "primary mode" to "general-election mode" in the vote, calling on his opponents to operate in "tell-the-truth mode."
Today, Edwards continued his attacks by reacting to a mailer the New York senator sent to Iowans. "I understand she’s now sent a letter out to Iowa caucusgoers giving a different reason for why she voted ‘yes’ on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,” he said. “So now we got one explanation for the New York Times, which is her hometown newspaper, and a different explanation being sent out to Iowa caucusgoers.”
Edwards is on a four-day swing through western Iowa. His next stop is in Sidney, Iowa.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A few days ago, Newsweek's Michael Isikoff reported on the lack of access to Hillary Clinton's papers at the Clinton Presidential Library, which he said runs counter to her complaints about the Bush Administration's secrecy and her vow to bring a "return to transparency" to government. That article followed an earlier Los Angeles Times article, which noted that nearly 2 million pages of her documents as First Lady were locked up in the library -- and wouldn't be released until after the presidential election.
So perhaps it wasn't surprising when a group opposed to Clinton's election handed First Read a copy of a letter it received from the University of Arkansas Libraries' Special Collections, which said that the group's request -- made back in May 2007 -- for access to the library's Diane Blair papers wouldn't be made unavailable until 2009. In other words, not until after the presidential election.
"The Diane Blair Papers (MC 1004) in Special Collections at the University of Arkansas Libraries, Fayetteville, will be available in 2009," the letter reads. "We are unable to photocopy pages for you from the Draft Finding Aid of this unprocessed collection."
Who is Diane Blair?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Chuck Todd
Sources tell First Read the Clinton campaign is making a push to significantly step up their efforts in Iowa. They are aiming to add more 100 paid staff in the Hawkeye State by Nov. 1.
Hillary Clinton Iowa Hiring flyer Click here to see a larger view of the flyer (.pdf format) The campaign has also created a flier advertising an Oct. 28 and 29th Clinton “job fair” in Arlington, Va., where to send resumes and how to set up phone interviews.
According to an analysis by the
Des Moines Register, Obama has 145 paid staffers in Iowa, Edwards has 130 and Clinton has 117.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
The Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call is reporting that former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) will not run for Chuck Hagel’s (R) open seat next year.
Kerrey would have put the seat in play, and DSCC chairman Sen.
Chuck Schumer (D-NY) was actively recruiting Kerrey, who is the president of the New School in New York.
Kerrey’s decision certainly gives Republicans the edge to hold onto the seat with either former Secretary of Agriculture and Gov.
Mike Johanns (R) or Nebraska Attorney General
Jon Bruning the favorites.
Other Democratic possibilities are Mike Fahey, mayor of Omaha, or Scott Kleeb, a rancher who lost in his bid for NE-03 in 2006. But neither will have the name recognition or immediate appeal of Kerrey.
“Kerrey’s decision amounts to the second bit of good news for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in as many days.” Roll Call writes, “On Tuesday wealthy San Antonio attorney Mikal Watts (D) pulled out of the Texas Senate race. Watts was another prized DSCC recruit.”
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyMT. PLEASANT, SC -- This morning
Thompson invoked the name of
Ronald Reagan at a retail stop here at Alex’s Diner, saying that many of his opponents are late comers to Reagan’s party and the former president must be sitting up in his grave, “looking down and shaking his head saying who are these fellows that are using my name so often in these debates.”
A day after rolling out a new proposal for how to handle illegal immigration, the former senator continued to criticize “sanctuary cities” and emphasize his plan to strip cities of federal funding if they refuse to comply with federal immigration laws.
Thompson also sharpened his criticisms of his fellow GOP candidates and his Democratic rivals. First, he pleaded with the mostly friendly audience at the diner to help him convince voters to vote Republican.
“Don’t turn the keys to this country over to a political party who wants to do nothing more than create a gigantic welfare state from the United States of America,” Thompson said. “Don’t turn this … country over to a party who insults our generals and plays politics with national security. Don’t do that.”
& CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal's Aswini Anburajan
BOSTON -- With an eloquence that could have rivaled
Obama’s address at the 2004 Democratic convention, Massachusetts Governor
Deval Patrick (D) endorsed the Illinois senator for the Democratic Party’s nomination for the presidency here on a warm, gusty autumn night Tuesday.
Several thousand people gathered on Boston Common to hear Obama speak, but it was Patrick who seemingly stole the show. He zealously delivered Obama’s message of national reconciliation, while slamming
Senator Clinton without once mentioning her by name. “A lot of the Democrats are feeling heady these days -- we’re sensing victory. We feel like we can reach out and grab at the White House again,” Patrick told the crowd, before warning, “but I’m asking you to beware my friends. Beware because this discontent with Republicans is not enough to ensure a Democratic victory, nor should it be. I believe the challenges before us transcend party partisan politics. We don’t just need a Democrat -- we need a leader.”
Patrick took Obama’s message of the need for political change in this election and turned it into a referendum on character and values. “For once, I want a campaign that’s not about the candidate, but about us. Not about a resume, but about character. Not about connections and convenience, but about conviction. Not about smearing the competition, but about lifting us all up,” he said.
“I don’t care whether the next president is the first black president or the first woman president or the first whatever. To tell you the total truth, what I care about is whether the next president has moral courage and a political backbone and the humility to admit what he doesn’t know and the wisdom to learn from others,” he added.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
***
Where few dare to go: Over the past 10 months, the national media have reported on almost every angle possible in this presidential race, especially as it relates to Hillary Clinton. But few -- outside of the books by Sally Bedell Smith and Carl Bernstein, and a May 2006 New York Times piece -- have examined the Clintons’ marriage. Will that change now after a new, provocative LA Times/Bloomberg poll and Hillary calling her husband “romantic” in a recent interview? “Now obviously we've had challenges as everybody in the world knows,” she told
Essence magazine. "But I never doubted that it was a marriage worth investing in even in the midst of those challenges, and I'm really happy that I made that decision." Private matters have been fair game for other candidates (the press has scrutinized Romney’s Mormon faith, Giuliani’s divorces and family infighting, and Obama’s schooling in Indonesia). Is the same true for the Clintons’ marriage? Then again, a Clinton partisan can argue no marriage has been MORE scrutinized than the Clinton marriage.
***
But do Democrats care? Well, one thing is for sure: Democrats don’t seem to care much about the Clinton marriage. The new
Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll -- which has Clinton leading Obama, 48%-17%, and Giuliani ahead in the GOP contest -- finds that 42% of Democrats believe it was the right thing for Clinton to stay with her husband after the Lewinsky affair. Just 5% say it was the wrong choice. Also: “More than 7 in 10 Democrats, and about half of all voters, said they would welcome a White House advisory role for Bill Clinton, who jokes that he would be called ‘first laddy’ if his wife became president.”
*** The McClurkin mess: Will this douse the controversy over Donnie McClurkin’s role in an upcoming concert tour for the Obama campaign? McClurkin tells the Chicago Tribune that he doesn’t crusade against homosexuality. Will that be enough to placate the Human Rights Campaign, which is gearing up to publicly criticize Obama if he doesn’t dump McClurkin? And by the way, getting donations from two-year-olds (see below) also isn’t great press. And neither is holding events with semi-famous boxers who have a history of domestic violence (that's happening today in Nevada). By the way, the campaign got more bad news today in the form of a new Gallup poll, which indicates Oprah's endorsement would technically have a net-negative effect on his campaign.
*** Worst week ever? What also isn’t great press… Having a prominent South Carolina Baptist minister withdraw his endorsement of Romney. Whether it was his narrow victory in the Values Voter straw poll, the negative pieces by National Journal’s Charlie Cook and the New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza, his debate performance on Sunday, and now this -- this hasn’t been a great last few days for Romney. Romney, however, is trying to change the subject a tad today with a new TV ad in South Carolina that emphasizes his business background, rather than his new social conservative positions.
 |
|
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the tribulations of the past few days for Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, plus thoughts on youthful campaign donors and Rudy Giuliani's baseball allegiance.
***
Pander Bear alert: What is it with presidential candidates and pandering to baseball fans. First, we had Bill Richardson, who claims to be a fan of both the Yankees and Red Sox. Then there was Hillary Clinton, who said she couldn't decide who she would root for in a Yankees-Cubs World Series. And now, Mr. Stick-to-it-ness himself, Rudy Giuliani, showed he has a pandering side too by proclaiming, in New Hampshire no less, that he's pulling for the Red Sox in the World Series. The New York tabs are having a field day. Seriously, this is why some are so cynical about politicians…
*** On the trail: Clinton is in Iowa, where she delivers a lecture at Iowa State University; Edwards also is in Iowa, holding community events throughout the state; Giuliani holds a town meeting in Davenport, IA; McCain starts his day in DC before he, too, travels to the Hawkeye State to deliver a speech in Des Moines on international relations; Obama campaigns in New Hampshire; Richardson, in Los Angeles, delivers a speech on Latin American policy and later raises money; Romney stumps in South Carolina before heading to Philadelphia, where he holds a media avail; and Thompson campaigns in South Carolina.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 13 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 24 days
Countdown to Iowa: 71 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 76 days
Countdown to Michigan: 83 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 87 days
Countdown to Florida: 97 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 104 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 377 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 454 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
GIULIANI: Campaigning in New Hampshire yesterday, Giuliani continued to take on his Republican rivals, saying he was the only presidential candidate in either party who has lowered taxes. Speaking to Lincoln Financial Group staffers, NBC/NJ’s Matt Berger notes, he said his experience helps him understand that lowering taxes will bring more money into the government. “There’s a big difference between all of the candidates and me on taxes,” he said. “None of them have ever lowered taxes. Some of them have voted for lowering taxes, some of them haven’t. But none of them have ever done it. I actually did it.”
The New York Sun notes that on a day when Giuliani wanted to make a point that he left a GOP legacy in New York City -- while Mitt Romney did not in Massachusetts -- the former mayor did something he rarely does these days: bring up
positive things about Bloomberg.
Most thought they’d never read
this: “I’m rooting for the Red Sox,” Giuliani said. "I am not just saying that because I am in Massachusetts. If I am in Colorado in the next week or two, you will see that I have the courage to tell the people of Colorado the same thing."
“TRAITOR!” is the front page of the
New York Daily News over the smiling face of Rudy.
“RED COAT” screams across the
New York Post’s front page with a PhotoShopped Giuliani in full Red Sox garb.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Joe was fired up yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann notes. Speaking about what he said is the Bush Administration's censorship of images of flag-draped coffins arriving from Iraq, Biden was incensed: "I'm the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, the fifth most senior member of the Senate," he said. "How DARE the president tell me I can't walk on to a military base!" What was noteworthy about his remarks yesterday wasn't his passion against the war; rather it was that he delivered them to an audience mostly made up of medical students during a detailed health care policy rollout speech.
 |
|
Yesterday, Biden fleshed out the details of his health care plan, which he says differs most notably from his rivals' because of its simplicity and its focus on catastrophic costs. But when asked to discuss the shortcomings of care for military veterans, Biden's eyes alit and he strode up the center of the lecture hall, confounding cameramen who frantically swiveled to try to catch him on tape. "None of us in this room are making a sacrifice for a STUPID war that we shouldn't be in the first place," he said. "And they are. They are. We owe them."
The Des Moines Register writes up Biden’s health-care plan, which falls short of universal coverage. "A key component is to have the federal government provide coverage for catastrophic medical costs, which he said would spread the burden for insuring those patients and help hold down premiums. Biden also would place more emphasis on disease prevention, take steps to insure all children and extend coverage to more adults. He would not require, however, that everyone have health insurance." The paper puts the price tag at $80-$120 billion a year.
CLINTON: "Clinton has neutralized the political fallout from some of the most difficult moments of her eight years as first lady, with Democratic voters looking favorably on her failed effort to revamp healthcare and either supporting or having no opinion of her decision to remain loyal to an unfaithful husband, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows. The positive impression of Clinton's White House years -- which is shared, though more faintly, among the broader public -- is helping propel her to a formidable lead over her rivals” for the Dem nod, where she leads Obama 48-17% in the national primary.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post uncovers a number of examples where candidates have raised maximum money from children as young as two years old. In one example, when confronted by the news that they have donors as young as two, the Obama campaign said it would refund any contributions from kids under 15, the age limit they set from the get-go. Of course, there's no way to police this since the FEC does not ask for proof of age of donors.
"Just how much campaign cash is coming from children is uncertain -- the FEC does not require donors to provide their age. But the amount written by those identifying themselves as students on contribution forms has risen dramatically this year, according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics. During the first six months of the 2000 presidential campaign, students gave $338,464. In 2004, that rose to $538,936. This year, the amount has nearly quadrupled, to $1,967,111."
This is something that won't come as a surprise to many of you, but the Des Moines Register notes how Iowa is more of a focus for the Democratic candidates than it is for the GOP ones. “John Edwards and Barack Obama each has more staff in Iowa than all of the Republican caucus campaigns combined, with Hillary Clinton close behind. Even the Democratic field's lesser-known candidates have built caucus organizations several times the size of some of the best-known Republicans' operations.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times compares Bush’s response to the California wildfires with his response to Hurricane Katrina. “Mr. Bush has dealt with natural disasters since Hurricane Katrina, but the California fires are clearly the administration’s biggest challenge since the storm flooded New Orleans. Beyond demonstrating that the White House has learned its lesson, the rapid response shows how Mr. Bush, late in his presidency, is relying on his executive powers — veto threats, presidential orders and his bully pulpit — to keep himself in the news and convey an image of being in charge.”
This should
fire up the liberal blogosphere. Former Bush 41 Attorney General Dick Thornburgh "charged Tuesday that political reasons motivated the Justice Department to open corruption investigations against Democrats in Mr. Thornburgh’s home state, Pennsylvania. In testimony before the House Judiciary Committee, Mr. Thornburgh became the first former Republican attorney general to join with Democratic lawmakers to suggest that the Justice Department under Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales had singled out Democratic politicians for prosecution."
This morning at the White House, President Bush meets with his Cabinet, and then travels to the State Department later in the day to deliver remarks on his Administration’s Cuba policy. The New York Times: “As described by an official in a background briefing to reporters on Tuesday evening, Mr. Bush’s remarks will amount to the most detailed response — mainly an unbending one — to the political changes that began in Cuba more than a year ago, when Fidel Castro fell ill and handed power to his brother Raúl… In effect, the speech will be a call for Cubans to continue to resist, a particularly strong line coming from an American president. He is expected to say to the Cuban military and police, ‘There is a place for you in a new Cuba.’”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Andy Merten
In the first of its kind, five wives from both parties joined together to discuss the demands of being a political spouse. California First Lady Maria Shriver, who is an example of adapting to the political life, hosted the women in Long Beach, while helping her husband deal with the fire crisis.
VIDEO: Candidates' spouses talk about their lives, in an unusual presidential campaign forum in California. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.In a set more like Oprah than a political debate, Democrats
Michelle Obama and
Elizabeth Edwards and Republicans
Jeri Thompson,
Ann Romney, and
Cindy McCain put aside partisan politics to discuss issues close to their hearts.
Thompson, making her first solo appearance on the trail, commented on her relative newness to politics and the race, saying she has "a lot to learn from everybody here." As a possible result, Thompson spoke the least of all the women, answering just four questions while Romney jumped in to answer 11 and Edwards nine. Obama answered seven and McCain answered six.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andy Merten
In an election season when presidential campaigns have taken full advantage of popular social networking Web sites -- like MySpace and Facebook -- as low-cost tools for getting their names and faces out to young voters, it's hardly a surprise that some are using the internet to poke fun at both the candidates and the online networking phenomena. That came in the form of “The Right Wing Facebook,” which was launched last week by liberal groups People for the American Way and RightWingWatch.org.
A mock-up of Facebook -- in which college students, young adults, and an increasing number of 30-somethings create profiles and declare friendships with the click of a mouse -- the Right Wing Facebook features the fictitious online personalities of five GOP presidential candidates: Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee. For example, Rudy’s profile picture shows him in drag, cigar in hand; Thompson lists his favorite movies and television shows as “Anything I’m in”; and McCain cites “searching for loose change” and “reminding people I’m still running for president” as his activities. The list of jabs from the left goes on and on. A People for the American Way spokesman says the faux site has received nearly 100,000 page views.
The other side has also offered up its own attempt at humor -- with the RNC’s Halloween-themed “Scariest Democrat.” The site presents a rundown of unflattering pictures of six of the party’s presidential hopefuls (Kucinich and Gravel didn’t make the cut), and then it offers a laundry lists of newspaper headlines and direct quotes for each candidate to convey their left-leaning tendencies. Not surprisingly, voters have rated the top three “scariest” Democrats in the same order as they currently stand in nation-wide polls. An RNC spokesman tells First Read that the site has had nearly 65,000 visitors as of 4:00 pm ET.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In his continued courting of African Americans in South Carolina, where he is in a battle for support with Clinton, Obama has launched a radio ad narrated by Jesse Jackson Jr.
With what appears to be a piano rendition of "Swing Low, Sweet Chariot" playing in the background, Jackson Jr. says his own name and "my father" twice in the 60-second ad and urges voters to support Obama, who has "taken up the torch" and is "continuing that march for justice."
In a veiled swipe at Clinton, Jackson says, "A lot of politicians call themselves our friends. But Obama has a heart that beats for our community. And he's dedicated his life to the struggle."
Jackson concludes, "Once, South Carolina voted for my father, and sent a strong message to the nation. Next year, you can send more than a message. You can launch a President."
Per the campaign, the ad begins airing today on 36 gospel and R&B radio stations across South Carolina. This is the third radio ad, Obama has run in the state.
Here's the full transcript of “Defining Moment”:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Say it ain't so, Rudy. That's at least what Yankee fans have to be saying right now. While campaigning in Boston today, Giuliani -- a diehard Yankees fan -- said he'll be rooting for the Red Sox in their World Series match-up with the Colorado Rockies, the AP reports. His reason: He supports the American League.
But did he give that answer because he was campaigning in Boston? Or because he's trying to get votes in New Hampshire, which is mostly Red Sox country? He replied that he isn't pandering. "In Colorado, in the next week or two, you will see, I will have the courage to tell the people of Colorado the same thing, that I am rooting for the Red Sox in the World Series," he said.
From NBC’s Julia Steers and Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Arlen Specter -- the Pennsylvania Republican who oversaw the appointment of two Bush Supreme Court justices, went after Alberto Gonzalez, Democratic presidential contenders and had a rare kind word for Larry Craig -- took second place in a celebrity comedy contest last night at the Washington, D.C. Improv.
A 77-year-old, five-term senator and cancer survivor, Specter showed a humorous side that is often rare in Washington.
Here are a couple of his jokes (some, well, one in particular, were perhaps too suggestive for this post):
--“Bob [Dole] then told me Elizabeth was very angry with him, because he complained about the cost of Viagra. He said, ‘Arlen, you know they cost $10 a pill?’ And I said, ‘Bob how in the hell would I know about that?’ And then Elizabeth said to him in anger, so he reported, ‘Bob, you can afford $40 a year!’”
--“Trent Lott was really despondent after the hurricane hit, had a lot of property damage, but the thing he was most concerned about, was that it destroyed his entire library -- both books. And Trent wasn’t even finished coloring one of them.”
Here is a video link to his performance.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
On the same day it came out with a comprehensive immigration proposal that is sure to be popular in southern states,
Thompson’s campaign lost the support of a key GOP operative in New Hampshire, a state it hasn’t visited in over 6 weeks. Former Thompson supporter Dan Hughes, a US Marine Corps veteran who served in the White House under Gerald Ford, was announced as the new vice chairman of
McCain’s New Hampshire leadership team.
The Thompson campaign did not immediately comment on the effect of Hughes’ departure to its success in New Hampshire, nor did it release any information on when it plans to file for the NH primary. Tomorrow the campaign travels to South Carolina, and then after two days with no public events, Thompson heads out west with events planned through Oct. 31, which is cutting it close to New Hampshire’s Nov. 2 filing deadline.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger
CONCORD, N.H. -- Giuliani said he believes being New York City’s mayor has prepared him for being president, despite questions from other candidates about his experience. Filing for candidacy in New Hampshire Tuesday, Giuliani defended his preparedness after McCain said he had the most experience in the race.
“I think he said he thought it was superior to a governor’s or a mayor’s,” Giuliani said. “I think the American people can decide that.”
Giuliani said he has visited 35 countries in the last six years, and had a wide range of experiences as mayor, including law enforcement.
“I ran the 17th largest economy in the world, not just in the United States,” he said. “I know when you say mayor and mayor’s a wonderful position, but New York City mayor is sometimes described as the second toughest job in the country, and I think people know I ran it in very difficult times.”
From NBC's Mark Murray
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton issues this statement about Romney mixing up Obama's and Osama bin Laden's names today: "Apparently, Mitt Romney can switch names just as casually as he switches positions, but what's wrongheaded is continuing a misguided war in Iraq that has left America less safe. It's time to end the divisiveness and fear-mongering that is at the heart of Gov. Romney's campaign."
*** UPDATE *** After a house party in Merrimack, N.H., reporters asked Obama for his reaction to Romney mistaking him for bin Laden. He said, "I don't pay too much attention to Mitt Romney."
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
NAPLES, FL -- Fred Thompson met with the sheriff of Collier County Florida today and rolled out a new anti-illegal immigration policy initiative that focuses on seven main policy points: 1) No amnesty; 2) Attrition through enforcement; 3) Increased enforcement of current laws; 4) Reduced incentives from jobs; 5) Bolster border security; 6) Increased prosecution; and 7) Rigorous entry and exit regulation.
Collier County is the only county in Southwest Florida to have its deputies trained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement to allow them to serve as local immigration and deportation agents. After a quick briefing on the county’s program, which Thompson said should serve as a “model” for counties across the country, the former senator focused on how best to enforce current immigration laws.
At the center of Thompson’s immigration proposal is a crackdown on sanctuary cities, about which he said, “Some of our cities in this country, for their own individual reasons and notions, have basically said to their locals, ‘You can’t cooperate with federal authorities. If you run across illegal aliens, you cannot cooperate with [the federal government], you cannot reveal them to federal authorities.’ That’s wrong.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DES MOINES, IA -- Huckabee has become an increasingly buzzworthy candidate in recent days -- with his warm reception at the Values Voter conference, a solid performance at the FOX debate, and the endorsement of roundhouse-kick-to-the-face expert and actor Chuck Norris. In light of the buzz, here are a few tidbits about the ex-governor's chances in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus state that just might be a dark horse's ticket to the big time.
-- It's fair to say that the overwhelming sentiment about Huckabee among Iowa's chattering class is bewilderment that he doesn't spend more time here in the state. If his campaign had a dollar for everyone who said "Beats me why he's not LIVING here!" -- he might have doubled his latest fundraising haul. People recognize that conservative Republicans in Iowa are ripe for the picking, especially now that rival Brownback is out of the race and Thompson hasn't wowed the masses as previously foreseen. After Huckabee's success at Ames, he spent precious little time here, and some had whispered that he may have squandered a plum position. But with a good few weeks for Huckabee, there's a resurgence of speculation here and nationally that he could be the sleeper candidate conservatives have been waiting for after all -- IF he starts running like he means it here in the Hawkeye State.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
GREENWOOD, SC -- Romney this morning unveiled his plan to stimulate the United States' economic competitiveness on a world stage before the Greenwood Chamber of Commerce.
Invoking Ronald Reagan many times throughout his newest PowerPoint presentation, Romney proposed re-establishing what he called the "Reagan Zone" for "economic freedom."
Before launching into the charts and graphs in his slide show, Romney prefaced his plan by listing three factors that influence the economy, including the war on terror, Asia's rising economic profile and U.S. "weaknesses," including the health care and education systems, "overspending" in Washington and dependence on oil. Romney did briefly mention that jobs have left the country, but he did not offer a solution on outsourcing and instead stuck to trade.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
From the AP: "In a slip of the tongue, Republican Mitt Romney accused Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama of urging terrorists to congregate in Iraq. In the midst of criticizing Obama and other Democrats on foreign and economic policy Tuesday, the GOP presidential hopeful said: 'Actually, just look at what Osam -- Barack Obama -- said just yesterday. Barack Obama, calling on radicals, jihadists of all different types, to come together in Iraq. That is the battlefield... It's almost as if the Democratic contenders for president are living in fantasyland. Their idea for jihad is to retreat, and their idea for the economy is to also retreat. And in my view, both efforts are wrongheaded.'"
"Romney was addressing a Chamber of Commerce meeting. Spokesman Kevin Madden said: 'He misspoke and corrected himself and was referring to Osama bin Laden.'"
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Embattled Democrat Pete Stark has just publicly apologized to "the president and his family."
He took the floor after his fellow Democrats successfully killed a motion to censure him in the wake of his remarks last Thursday asserting that American troops were fighting in Iraq to have their "heads blown off for the president's amusement."
"I want to apologize to my colleagues, many of whom I have offended," Stark began. He then apologized to "the president and his family" and "the troops."
"I hope that with this apology, I return to being as insignificant as I should be," he concluded through a voice cracking with emotion.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Dodd has moved his wife and daughters to a house in Iowa, where they will live through the January caucuses. The move reminded us of another Connecticut senator: Joe Lieberman. Despite single-digit showings in the polls, Lieberman rented an apartment with his wife in New Hampshire before the primary there in 2004.
Dodd and Lieberman have been on the outs since Dodd campaigned for Ned Lamont, Lieberman’s opponent in the 2006 Senate race. Maybe Lieberman can recommend a mover.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Republican leader John Boehner just stood up on the House floor to put forward a motion to censure Rep. Pete Stark (D) over the congressman's "heads blown off for the president's amusement" remark on the House floor last week.
Democrats will move to table -- or kill -- the motion. They will likely succeed. A vote is being taken on the tabling motion now.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** Direct Mail Wars: Just days after the Clinton campaign sent a mailing to Iowa voters defending the candidate’s vote for the Lieberman-Kyl measure, the Obama camp sends out its own mailing today. (By the way, isn't it odd that Obama is following Clinton's lead on making this a paid campaign issue. The conspiracy theorist in us wonders if there's a rope-a-dope-ness to this issue, but we digress.) “While other Democrats voted for for [sic] the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, Barack Obama opposed another Bush foreign policy fiasco,” it states. Obama is then quoted as saying: “Why is this amendment so dangerous? Because George Bush and Dick Cheney could use this language to justify keeping our troops in Iraq as long as they can point to a threat from Iran.” And the mailing also says this: “Barack Obama is the ONLY major candidate for president to oppose both the Iraq War from the very start and the Senate amendment that raises the risk of war with Iran.” (Of course, Obama’s rivals will gladly point out that he didn’t vote against the Iraq war -- he wasn’t in the Senate then -- and didn’t vote against Lieberman Kyl because he was campaigning when that vote took place.)
 |
|
***
Teflon Hillary? As we suggested yesterday, the Clinton campaign -- given its earlier mailing -- may very well see Hillary’s Lieberman-Kyl vote as a vulnerability, and her opponents are now pouncing on the issue. But will it stick? So far this year, Obama and Edwards have assailed her 2002 Iraq vote, to no avail according to the polls. Then this summer, they turned their attention to her refusal to disavow raising money from lobbyists, which is a subject that has all but disappeared. Now it’s Iran and Lieberman-Kyl.
***
Is Obama Losing The Netroots? But does Obama have some trouble of his own? Per the Hotline's chief blog watcher, Conn Carroll, the netroots are "eating Obama alive" on the story that one of the performers on the candidate’s upcoming Gospel Tour, Donnie McClurkin, has said that homosexuality is a choice and can be cured through prayer. Obama has issued a statement disagreeing with McClurkin’s views on gays, but the campaign indicates that the performer will remain a part of the concert. Does Obama have a problem with the netroots? As it turns out, he’s now in third place in the
Daily Kos straw poll, behind Edwards and the new darling of the netroots: Dodd.
***
A Five-Man GOP Race? The
Washington Post's Dan Balz sets some new CW, claiming the GOP race is now a five-way contest -- not just a two-man race between Rudy and Romney. Thompson, McCain and Huckabee all are viable as well, he says. "Romney ought not to assume Thompson will continue to sputter and Huckabee won't be able to enlarge his support, particularly in Iowa. The Republican race may yet become a contest between Giuliani and Romney, but it may have some significant twists ahead before it reaches that point."
*** Fred’s Improvement? Thompson, meanwhile, is showing some refined skill on the campaign trail. He appeared to shut down questions about his earlier response on Schiavo (when he supposedly didn't know enough to talk about the issue) by personalizing the situation, bringing up how he dealt with the death of his daughter.
***
The (Potential) First Ladies’ Club: The Women's Conference’s Presidential Candidate Spouse Forum takes place in California. The panel, moderated by Maria Shriver (whose husband is dealing with the fires in California), includes Elizabeth Edwards, Michelle Obama, Cindy McCain, Ann Romney, and Jeri Thompson.
***
On The Trail: Biden stumps in Iowa; Clinton holds a rally in Denver; Edwards, in Merrimack, NH, has a roundtable on education and then a media avail; Giuliani is also in New Hampshire, where he holds a morning news conference; Gravel has a fundraising reception in New York City; McCain files his paperwork to be on the New Hampshire ballot; Obama attends a house party in Merrimack, NH and then rallies with Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) in Boston; Richardson raises money in California; Romney campaigns in South Carolina; and Thompson is in Florida. Also, Bill Clinton -- who isn’t attending Shriver’s presidential spouse forum -- headlines a fundraiser for his wife in Minneapolis.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 14 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 25 days
Countdown to Iowa: 72 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 77 days
Countdown to Michigan: 84 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 88 days
Countdown to Florida: 98 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 105 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 378 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 455 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Yesterday, Bush asked Congress for an additional $46 billion to pay for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- and insisted that that lawmakers pass it by the end of the year. “The latest spending proposal brings the total current fiscal year request for Iraq, Afghanistan and counterterrorism operations to $196.4 billion, by far the largest annual tally since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. If approved by Congress in its entirety, it would bring the total appropriated since then to more than $800 billion. At their current rate, war appropriations could reach $1 trillion by the time Bush leaves office, a total that by some measures would exceed the cost of the Korean and Vietnam wars combined.”
 |
|
More: “The rhetoric from both sides yesterday evoked the fiery debate over the last war funding bill this spring, with the president suggesting that critics do not support the troops and Democrats accusing him of fiscal recklessness on behalf of a losing cause. ‘Our men and women on the front lines should not be caught in the middle of partisan disagreements in Washington, D.C.,’ Bush said at the White House, flanked by veterans and the family of a slain Marine. ‘I often hear that war critics oppose my decisions, but still support the troops. Well, I'll take them at their word -- and this is the chance to show it.’”
CONTINUED >>
Newark Star-Ledger's Farmer writes that Republicans may be relying too heavily on hatred of Hillary Clinton, and warns they should be careful what they wish for: “We've seen this scenario before. In 1980, Democrats, burdened by a politically crippled Jimmy Carter seeking a second term, thought they saw salvation in the person of Reagan, the GOP nominee." More: “Reagan won in the end not so much because he was the people's choice but because they'd had their fill of Carter incompetence. They wanted change -- any change. It's what Democrats believe is the antidote to the lack of affection for Clinton.”
As if on cue, however, National Review's Jonah Goldberg makes the case that Clinton as the Dem nominee is the GOP's best chance at holding the White House. "The most interesting thing to come out of the umpteenth Republican debate Sunday is confirmation that the GOP is dying to run against Hillary Clinton… Is it really so obvious that, say, Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney represent ‘change’ less than the ultimate Clinton retread, complete with Bill as ‘first gentleman?’ That's how Democrats are betting right now, and they may be bitterly disappointed -- again -- when it comes time to collect."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Campaigning in Iowa yesterday, Biden
discussed Iran and Iraq and touted his foreign policy experience for much of the morning chat. He emphasized the importance of his colleagues seeking the Democratic nomination to have a common agreement on Iran because of its future impact on the country. "We are going to say things in the spirit of trying to get ahead in the nominating fight that are going to give (President) Bush excuses, excuses that we should not take a chance on," Biden said.
CLINTON: “Clinton has paid 697 people to work for her campaign during the last three months, compared to 631 who have toiled for Obama,” according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics. But “Obama has spent $12.6 million on salaries and benefits, compared with Clinton's $3.8 million.”
EDWARDS: The
Los Angeles Times' Wallsten wonders if Edwards is treading on racial and gender biases with his electability claims, "Edwards' status as a Southern white male -- characteristics that helped propel Democrats Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton to the White House -- has this year offered some limitations, to the frustration of his campaign… Now, as Edwards lays out the closing argument of his primary election campaign -- that he is the most electable candidate and the most able to help fellow Democrats in conservative states -- race and gender are forcing him to tread lightly.”
CONTINUED >>
With Maria Shriver hosting a candidate spouse event today, the Washington Post chose this as a good time to roll out its analysis of what the best political spouse can do this year.
The Wall Street Journal does its version of the Iowa-is-everything story in looking at the Democratic race.
Check out Ed Tibbetts' observations on the likelihood of a split caucus in Iowa.
Also, the Rocky Mountain News' Sprengelmeyer offers a smart analysis of Democratic candidates who are finding surprising crowds in far-flung, traditionally Republican counties in Western Iowa.
The Hill reports that the House Democratic leadership is embarking on a PR blitz. "Democratic leadership aides huddled with rank-and-file chiefs of staff, legislative directors and press secretaries on Monday to persuade them to do more to promote a positive message. Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster, and Mike McCurry, one of President Bill Clinton’s former press secretaries, also were on hand to press for a concerted effort.”
“In a ‘Dear Colleague’ letter sent last week to lawmakers, the six senior House Democratic leaders noted that bipartisan majorities have passed lobbying and ethics reforms, an increase in the minimum wage, a massive increase in student aid, legislation to implement the 9/11 Commission recommendations and other initiatives that President Bush has signed into law."
The only announced candidate -- who may self fund, by the way -- against North Carolina GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole, announced yesterday that he is gay. "Although he is willing to acknowledge his sexual orientation, Neal said he did not want to talk in detail about his private life. Neal, who grew up in Greensboro but lived most of his adult life in New York, said he married young and had two sons. He said his marriage broke up after 10 years when he realized he was a homosexual -- about 18 years ago.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In Fresno, CA, students and school officials cheered a hoarse Clinton on as she promised to bring about change with immigration reform, universal health care, and affordable college. She tailored her stump speech to the thousands of supporters from the San Joaquin Valley farm towns and related her message to the numerous students and parents in the audience.
Calling America the "innovation nation," Clinton asked how America let Brazil get ahead in terms of fuel production from sugar cane. She talked about reviving the economy with jobs in the energy sector for people like these students who will be entering the work force in a few years.
She once again promised to send Democratic and Republican ambassadors of good will around the world to tell other countries "the era of cowboy diplomacy is over." But apparently, this laugh line does not make everyone crack a smile.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-TreworgyTAMPA, FL - On his third tour of Florida today,
Thompson readdressed some of the local issues he had been criticized for being uninformed about during his first visit. When asked by a local television reporter if he would like to clarify his responses to questions about the Terri Schiavo right-to-life issue (in which he said he didn't know the details of the case) and drilling in the Everglades, Thompson said, “No, I’ve completely responded to that.”
 |
|
But he continued to address both issues, comparing the Schiavo case to a similar situation he faced in his own family when his daughter was hospitalized after an accidental prescription drug overdose while Thompson was serving in the Senate. “Obviously, I knew about the Schiavo case,” Thompson said. “I had to face a situation like that in my own personal life with my own daughter. I know this is bandied about as a political issue, and people want to make it such and talk about it in the public marketplace a lot. I am a little bit uncomfortable about that because it’s an intensely personal thing to me. These things need to be decided by the family.
“I was at that bedside, and I had to make those decisions with the rest of my family, and I will assure you one thing, no matter which decision you make you will never know whether or not you made exactly the right decision. So making this into a political football is something that I don’t welcome. And this will probably be the last time I ever address it. It should be decided by the family. The federal government and the state government too, except for the court system, ought to stay of these matters as far as I’m concerned.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Kung-fu fighting, Delta Force-Walker, Texas Ranger-Total Gym star Chuck Norris endorsed Huckabee for president today, calling him “The David among them” in his WorldNetDaily column.
Given Huckabee’s underdog status, Norris “recalled another leader in ancient times that didn't match up in the line up: King David. Seven men were poised and paraded for the position of king, but David was left in the field shepherding because he wasn't ‘a frontrunner in the polls.’ They overlooked the best because they were too busy judging by outward appearance. But God appointed David king.”
Norris also writes that Huckabee’s “not afraid to stand up for a Creator and against secularist beliefs.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
Giuliani today picked up the endorsement of Missouri Rep.
Jo Ann Emerson (R). It gives him a good congressional endorsement in another Feb. 5 state with more than 50 delegates at stake -- to go along with strong operations in Illinois, California, and the New York tri-state area.
Emerson is vice president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which jives with Giuliani's calls to expand interaction with NATO in an effort to marganilize the United Nations. It also gives him another congressman who leans conservative in his corner.
Giuliani is also expected to get another endorsement tomorrow morning at a press conference in Boston, before he starts campaigning in New Hampshire.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannDES MOINES, IA -- On Friday night, at a Democratic fundraiser here, the Iowa State Fairgrounds buzzed with the rapid-fire chatter of auctioneers and the strident speech of three presidential candidates. "Two twenty-five, twenty-five, twenty-five, FIFTY," sang the auctioneer, selling off a Polk County bumper sticker signed by former President
Bill Clinton.
Iowa's Democratic senator and former governor chuckled in the audience; Bill's wife was minutes from speaking to the group herself.
But in a room full of Iowa political superstars and a collectors' treasure chest of auction items, the prized couple in the room might have been Gordon and his hat.
Gordon Rowe is an elderly Des Moines landlord and political spectator, who has collected campaign buttons since he inherited his father's stash in after World War Two. His collection -- which he estimates at 44 buttons all together -- is proudly displayed on a green baseball hat that he flips on and off of his white-haired head with a charming clatter.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Republican National Committee has voted to strip New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and Wyoming of half their delegates for violating party rules and shifting their nominating contests earlier than was originally agreed upon.
Iowa and Nevada, which also moved their contest dates, are not being punished because they have non-binding contests.
Here's a link to the AP story.
*** UPDATE *** “Our rules lay out a clear process for delegate selection,” RNC Chairman Mike Duncan said on a conference call with reporters. Duncan added, “We spent most of this past year educating them on what the rules are. This should come as no surprise to them.”
In fact, the RNC approved its rules at the 2004 Republican convention -- “unanimously,” Duncan points out.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark MurrayIn addition to
Stephen Colbert's appearance on Meet the Press yesterday, the
Atlantic's Joshua Green analyzes -- mostly tongue in cheek -- Colbert's chances in South Carolina. "To figure out candidate Colbert’s impact on the race, you first need to identify what kind of person might support him. To my knowledge, not even John Zogby has polled Colbert’s presidential numbers. Until someone does, we’ll make do with the next best thing: Nielsen ratings. Colbert’s viewers tend to be young, white, educated, and male. Their median age is 37 and there’s a 60/40 male-female split. So far this year, he’s drawn a nightly audience that averages 1.3 million viewers nationwide, 874,000 of them in the 18-49 year-old demographic."
More: "The next step is to identify how many of them live (and are registered to vote) in South Carolina. For help, I turned to Professor Blease Graham of the University of South Carolina, and to Sam Wellborn, a graduate student at the school’s Institute for Public Service and Policy Research, who shared survey data on the state’s voters. Suffice it to say that Graham is not persuaded of Colbert’s electoral reach in the Palmetto State. 'If this were the high school operetta,' he told me, 'Colbert would be the amusement at intermission to keep the audience from straying in the second half.'"
From NBC's Mark Murray and Andy Merten
So far this election season, we've watched and attended what has to be dozens of presidential candidate debates and public forums. But at last night's GOP debate, something happened for the very first time: A candidate -- Ron Paul -- drew boos.
What Paul said that produced those boos is nothing new for the anti-war, libertarian Texas congressman. "I think the American people, if we as a party realize this and understand it ... the people in America want the [Iraq] war over with. They're sick and tired of it, and they want our troops to come home."
While many in the audience weren't happy with Paul's comments, those Republicans represent a minority of Americans -- which highlights a looming general election problem for the GOP. According to last month's NBC/WSJ poll, 56% said removing Saddam Hussein from power wasn't worth the US casualties or financial cost of the war; 56% said victory isn't possible in Iraq; and a whopping 63% said that Bush's troop surge either isn't making a difference or is making the situation worse.
And Iraq isn't the only issue on which Republicans -- and their presidential candidates -- disagree with a majority of Americans. Last night, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain all talked about their support for private Social Security accounts.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
***
A tough weekend for Mitt? Judging by the number of Thompson vs. Giuliani storylines after last night’s debate, Thompson might be judged the ultimate winner; he seemed much more comfortable than at the CNBC/MSNBC/WSJ debate earlier this month. The GOP primary seems to be a fight between Rudy and those who want to be the anti-Rudy. So as far as the anti-Rudy debate went last night, Thompson topped Romney and Huckabee. And therefore, that arguably makes Romney, by process of elimination, the loser. In addition, Romney’s very narrow win at Values Voter straw poll could be interpreted as a bad win for Romney -- if there are such things. With the divided vote, was Rudy the big winner at the Value Voters Summit as well? Speaking of Value Voters, Huckabee scored another surprise showing. Again, we ask, when will these performances translate into resources so he can actually attempt to pull the upset in Iowa? Notice, btw, that none of the other candidates go after Huckabee yet. Will that change soon?
 |
|
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Sunday's GOP debate, Hillary Clinton bashing and the GOP's own internal personal attacks.
***
“I-Ran, I-Ran so far away…”: The vote on it was held a month ago, but the Lieberman-Kyl amendment declaring the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization is really beginning to catch fire as an issue in the Democratic presidential contest -- and that seems to have the Clinton campaign concerned. How much? Well, consider that Clinton has a direct mail piece in Iowa defending her “yes” vote on it. (She was the only Democratic presidential candidate to vote for it in the Senate.) Nevertheless, Biden yesterday again criticized Clinton for that vote in an interview on "This Week." You'll also recall that just AFTER the vote was held, Sen. Jim Webb (D) criticized all those Democrats (generically, not by name) for supporting the measure. The Clinton camp has spent weeks claiming this was a drummed up non-controversy but since they are spending paid media explaining the vote, it tells us this must be testing badly with some Iowa Dems, either in polling or focus groups or both. By the way, Clinton risks drawing more attention to this vote and this so-called controversy so was the downside must have been MUCH worse than even Obama and Edwards had been trumpeting?
*** Hillary and Drudge: You've heard of open secrets. Well, in the presidential press corps, it's been an open secret for some time that there appears to be some semi-formal relationship between Drudge and the Clinton campaign. And today, the New York Times’ Rutenberg exposes that relationship. In fact, he identifies the person who appears to be Clinton's link to Drudge: ex-DNC official Tracy Sefl. This is yet another example of how the Clinton campaign appears to be mimicking -- operationally -- the 2004 Bush-Cheney campaign. Also, maybe it isn't odd that Clinton and Drudge are working together. After all, if it wasn't for the greatest Drudge leak ever known -- the Monica story -- would Clinton have ever ended up in the U.S. Senate after the 2000 elections? Speaking of open secrets, Newsweek’s chief investigative bulldog, Michael Isikoff, wonders why Clinton, who has promised transparency on the campaign trail, isn't opening up her First Lady records at the Clinton Presidential Library.
 |
|
***
Two new ads: Obama is up with a new
TV ad in New Hampshire, in which the Illinois senator talks about restoring America’s image around the world by reaching out to “friend and foe alike.” In it, Obama concludes, “We’re going to lead with our values and our ideals by deed and by example. I want to go before the world and say America’s back. America is back.” Per NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan, the ad is positive, but its theme -- talking to foreign adversaries -- is an issue Obama says he disagrees with Clinton. Meanwhile, the Richardson campaign also begins airing a new
60-second ad in Iowa and New Hampshire describing Richardson’s experience in helping to free two Americans captured in Iraq back in the 1990s.
***
Bobby’s big day: Bobby Jindal (R) received more than the 50% needed on Saturday to avoid a run off in Louisiana’s free-for-all election, becoming the nation’s first Indian-American governor. Sure, his victory was Katrina-related, but one can't help but notice that last week – which included the GOP’s narrow congressional loss in blue Massachusetts -- wasn't a bad one at the ballot box for the Republican Party. Are things not THAT bad for the GOP? Of course, the Kentucky gubernatorial race, in which incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) is expected to lose, is just two weeks away. Still, a nice shot in the arm for a party that's completely demoralized on Capitol Hill as a week hasn't gone by this fall without another veteran House or Senate Republican deciding on retirement.
*** On the trail: Biden is in Iowa; John and Elizabeth Edwards appear on the Ellen DeGeneres show; Huckabee stops in California, where he raises money and holds a media avail; Hunter remains in Florida; Obama begins his day in New Hampshire, where he holds a roundtable on “tax fairness” and files his papers for the NH primary, and then campaigns in Newark, NJ.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 15 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 26 days
Countdown to Iowa: 73 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 78 days
Countdown to Michigan: 85 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 89 days
Countdown to Florida: 99 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 106 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 379 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 456 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
The Boston Globe’s lead: "The eight Republican candidates for president held a fiery debate last night filled with charges and confrontations about who is a true conservative and "real Republican" as they defended their stands on issues such as abortion, gay marriage, and taxes."
The Los Angeles Times headlines the Thompson-Giuliani skirmishes. And it adds, "With groans and cheers, more than 3,000 spectators in the convention hall punctuated the scrappy back-and-forth among the candidates."
The New York Times: “The debate stood out for the intensity and personal nature of the exchanges, as Republicans tried to distinguish themselves — a tactic that risked highlighting the unhappiness among conservatives with much of the field.”
CONTINUED >>
It appears the Clinton campaign -- via the U.S. Postal Service -- answered the question about whether her vote regarding the Iranian Revolutionary Guard was a problem. It is. “In a three-page letter mailed directly to Iowans, Clinton (D-N.Y.)
insisted her vote last month to name Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist group does not put her in league with the Bush administration. Clinton wrote that she was about to vote ‘no’ on the measure, but changed it to ‘yes’ after Democrats removed language she thought President Bush ‘could use to justify military action."
The Chicago Sun-Times notes how the mailing is capitalizing on an unusual split between Illinois Senator Dick Durbin and Obama over this issue. The mailing shows a picture of Durbin, who is supporting Obama, and his explanation of why he disagreed with Obama on Lieberman-Kyl. The mailer reads: “Let me be clear on Iran -- I am opposed to letting President Bush take any military action against that country without full Congressional approval.”
Vice President Cheney made some
tough comments about Iran yesterday, saying that the US cannot allow that country to have a nuclear weapon. “‘Our country, and the entire international community, cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions,’ Cheney said in a speech to the Washington Institute for Near East Studies. If Iran continues on its current course, Cheney said the U.S. and other nations are ‘prepared to impose serious consequences.’ The vice president made no specific reference to military action.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York Times front-pages that Clinton “is learning to play nice with the Drudge Report and the powerful, elusive and conservative-leaning man behind it. That man, Matt Drudge, came to national prominence a decade ago as a nemesis of the Clintons who used the Web to peddle, gleefully, the latest news and rumor generated by the Monica Lewinsky scandal.”
“Aides in both parties acknowledge working harder than ever to get favorable coverage for their candidates — or unfavorable coverage of competitors — onto the Drudge Report’s home page, knowing that television producers, radio talk show hosts and newspaper reporters view it as a bulletin board for the latest news and gossip.”
Newsweek's investigative bulldog, Michael Isikoff, seems frustrated that Clinton won't release any papers and notes how hard of a time some reporters have searching the Clinton archives at the Clinton presidential library. "Nearly three years after the Clinton Library opened—and more than 21 months after its trove of records became subject to the Freedom of Information Act—barely one half of 1 percent of the 78 million pages of documents and 20 million e-mail messages at the federally funded facility are public, according to the National Archives. The lack of access is emerging as an issue in Hillary's presidential campaign: she cites her years of experience as First Lady as one of her prime qualifications to be president. Like other Democratic candidates, she has decried the ‘stunning record of secrecy’ of the Bush administration; her campaign Web site vows to bring a ‘return to transparency’ to government. But Clinton's appointment calendar as First Lady, her notes at strategy meetings, what advice she gave her husband and his advisers, what policy memos she wrote, even some key papers from her health-care task force—all of this, and much more documenting her years as First Lady, remains locked away, most likely through the entire campaign season."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times on the Values Voter Summit: “After an earnest appeal for acceptance from Rudolph W. Giuliani, Christian conservatives ended their two-day summit here Saturday still divided about which of the Republican presidential candidates to marshal their collective might behind. Mitt Romney edged out Mike Huckabee in the straw poll at the Values Voter Summit. But questions were raised about the way the voting was conducted — votes were permitted to be cast online as far back as August — and even top leaders said there did not appear to be any consensus.”
The Des Moines Register's Yepsen is finding more evidence that some top members of the GOP field are trying to downplay Iowa. He focuses on the skipping of the AARP forum. How many more events will the GOP candidates end up skipping in Iowa now?
GIULIANI: Bob Novak takes a closer look at the team Giuliani is putting together in California, and, overall, he seems impressed.
The
Wall Street Journal examines the tough time Giuliani is having getting traction among some South Carolina social conservatives. "Giuliani's support seems strongest on the less-conservative coast. His political history of supporting abortion rights, gay civil unions and gun control, along with his personal history of infidelity and divorce, make him a tough sell among the Bible-believing folk of Greenville County, which accounts for one in 10 of the state's Republican primary voters."
CONTINUED >>
Expect an announcement from the Iowa Democrats sometime this week -- perhaps as early as today -- on when they will hold their caucuses. Much of the momentum behind the scenes appears to be for joining the Iowa GOP on January 3.
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes the Red Sox effect in New Hampshire, and how that could make campaigning in the state near pointless until AFTER the World Series. When Huckabee filed for the New Hampshire primary last week, a supporter noted that if the Red Sox won that night, he would be bumped off the front page. They did, and he was (assuming his filing would have been front-page news). And today, New Hampshire’s front pages have banner Red Sox headlines.
The moral of the story? New Hampshire is deep in Red Sox nation, and another week of wall-to-wall baseball coverage means one less week of prominent political reporting. Boston NBC affiliate WHDH has said it’s holding off on serious primary reporting until the Red Sox run ends. That’s likely the case with the rest of Boston television, which is watched by many in the southern part of the state. And it probably means higher ad rates, too. Another argument against an early primary? The World Series could go as late as November 1.
CONTINUED >>
The New Orleans Times-Picayune writes up Bobby Jindal’s gubernatorial win on Saturday. “In a campaign that had the air of both inevitable and the historical, Bobby Jindal was elected governor Saturday, claiming the electoral prize that eluded him four years ago. By winning more than 50 percent of the primary vote against a field of 12 candidates, Jindal became the first candidate to win an open gubernatorial seat since Louisiana adopted its nonpartisan primary system in 1975.”
More: “The 36-year-old Jindal becomes the nation's youngest governor and the first chief executive of any state who is of Indian-American descent. When he officially takes over from Gov. Kathleen Blanco in January he will be the second-youngest person to serve in that office after Huey P. Long, who was 35 when voters first elected him in 1928.”
Thanks for your emails about the recent decision not to include former Sen. Mike Gravel at the next MSNBC debate. As you may already know, no network has given Gravel more of an opportunity to get his message across than NBC and its affiliates. But with the election season beginning in just 73 days, and more candidates (135 alone on the Dem side) trying to get into our debates, we believed it was necessary to have some minimum standards. Leaders and activists from both parties believe our requirements are very fair. Unfortunately, Gravel did not meet those requirements. The standards we used included measuring the amount of time the senator spent campaigning, as well as poll standing and financial resources.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie DannIf you needed a sign that Hillary Clinton is the presumptive nominee, at least among the GOP crowd: "Hillary" shoutout count: 27. Mentions of any other Democratic candidate: Zero. That's right. Zip.
And: McCain and Paul did refer to her as "Senator Clinton," but none of the other candidates acknowledged that title. In fact, all of the three frontrunners (and Huckabee, who's nipping at their heels) referred to the Democratic frontrunner as just "Hillary" at least once. Romney did it FOUR times. It's a subtle way of undermining her gravitas; the candidates tonight who addressed each other by just their first names mostly did it right before laying down a rhetorical body slam. (i.e: Thompson saying, "Actually, Mitt, I didn't know there was any room to the left of Ted Kennedy" or Giuliani saying, "Fred has his problems, too.")
From NBC’s Lauren AppelbaumIn case you were wondering, here's the email count for this evening's debate (as of 10 p.m.):
If emails are any indication of a campaign being alive and well, Thompson's campaign is keeping pace. He had the most emails attacking the other candidates, specifically Romney.
Thompson emails: 10 -- 5 attacking Romney and 2 attacking Giuliani
Romney emails: 4 -- 1 attacking Giuliani (surprisingly low number?)
Giuliani emails: 6 -- 2 attacking Romney and 1 attacking Thompson
Most of the emails after 10 are the "what people are saying about candidate X" emails.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
It's 74 days until the Iowa caucuses (actually, just under 1800 hours)
and clearly all of the major GOP candidates were feeling that pressure
at Sunday night's debate. All of them were full of energy and had
one-liners and barbs at the ready. For that reason, I'm having a hard
time singling out a winner because everyone in the so-called 1st and
2nd tier was VERY prepared tonight.
The first 25 minutes of the debate was simply red-hot but then, almost
as if on cue with the first pitch of Game 7 of the Red Sox-Indians and
the kickoff of the Steelers-Broncos game, the debate stopped creating
too many newsworthy moments.
Nothing like practice for Thompson. He seemed much more comfortable
than at the CNBC/MSNBC/WSJ debate earlier this month. He got a nice
assist from the Fox News folks by having Thompson critiques of Rudy and
Romney as the first questions to each of the two supposed frontrunners.
And it also gave Thompson a chance to "win" that initial round of the
debate. And then about an hour into the debate, Brit Hume used
Thompson's position on entitlement reform as the basis of questions to
all of the frontrunners and contrasted them to Thompson in a way that
allowed Thompson to look like the brave "bold" leader on the issue.
That said, between Fox News and Giuliani, it seems Thompson was put a
bit on the defensive on a few issues, including so-called tort reform,
No Child Left Behind and even abortion. But his energy level was WAY
up; suddenly seemed like a candidate who'd been on the trail for a
while. His best answer may have been during the bizarre round of
anti-Hillary questioning. He didn't try and followup on the cheap shots
from his opponents, but instead emphasized the need for the party to
nominate someone with core principles. And did we mention he got in the
last word? Overall, the Thompson folks should be ecstatic about
tonight; it was setup well for him.
Neither Giuliani nor Romney stumbled but it did seem Romney was still
slightly dazed from the last debate since he was on the defensive early
on in the debate (more so than his chief foes), even from the
moderators who asked about his "lawyers" line regarding key military
decisions.
Giuliani doesn't seem interested in playing a prevent defense; he had
no problem going right after Thompson at one of the Tennessee senator's
conservative weak spots: tort reform. In previous debates, Rudy seemed
more interested in finding a good one-liner to make a point and try to
stay above the fray. Tonight, he showed a more serious, yet biting side
that New Yorkers got used to in the '90s. Giuliani is proving to be one
of the better pure debaters on stage; he's very good at evading attacks
while striking back on another topic and changing the subject.
McCain was once again the sober guy on stage. And he may have gotten
off the line of the night, when he took his turn at bashing Hillary
over some apparent Woodstock museum. The one-time P.O.W. McCain noted
that he didn't attend Woodstock, he was, um, tied up. Everyone roared
with laughter. McCain also had one of the toughest zingers I've seen
yet in a debate when he said (apparently of Romney but he may have also
been targeting Giuliani): "I didn't manage for profit, I led for
patriotism." McCain also showed he's unafraid to show distance from
Pres. Bush. His line about seeing into the eyes of Putin just three
letters, "K.G.B." was a clear dig at Bush who saw into Putin's "soul."
Can you tell McCain's now a candidate with nothing left to lose?
McCain and Huckabee have benefitted in previous debates because the
other candidates would duck some questions those two wouldn't. Tonight,
because Giuliani, Romney and Thompson were all red hot, McCain and,
particularly, Huckabee, had a harder time standing out. This is not
good news for Huckabee who needs to stand out via earned media whenever
possible since he doesn't have a competitive bankroll.
But overall, this was a debate where every one of the major candidates
were on their game and in cases like this, it was hard for anyone to
stand out.
BTW, it's now 3-0 Boston in the bottom of the 4th. Back to baseball or football or "Desperate Housewives."
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyFor the final question, Goler pointed out the 300-pound Gorilla in the room, asking Thompson how he deals with being accused of not doing his “homework” and of being lazy. In response, Thompson simply went through his resume. I guess the argument is you can’t be lazy and experienced. It is also notable that this is the second debate in a row that Thompson got the final word, followed by big applause. Thompson’s final line:
“If a man can do all that and be lazy, I recommend that to everybody. And the most important part is I’m a proud father of five and two of them are under four [years old].”
NBC's Domenico Montanaro points out the context of the last line:
Thompson had three children with his first wife, one of whom passed away while he was in the Senate, and he has two children with his current wife Jeri.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerGiuliani gets a softball Iran question, and gives a strong answer. He gets to use another Ronald Reagan analogy, and fights back against Biden's foreign policy credentials question. Might be his best answer of the night.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerThe Giuliani campaign post-game quote (at 9:22 p.m.) from Tony Carbonetti says that "after the dust settles, the fact remains Rudy Giuliani is the only Republican candidate with the conservative record of results voters can trust that doesn’t change with the political wind."
How much dust do they think their candidate got on him tonight?
From NBC’s Andy MertenOther than Hillary Clinton, Ron Paul has been the only presidential candidate to receive audible disapproval from the crowd tonight. Both times he's touted his non-interventionist foreign policy agenda, he has been booed by tonight's extremely vocal audience.
From NBC’s Andy MertenIt seems that Fox News is still working out the kinks in it's audio equipment at debates. Several times tonight, while a candidate is answering a question, we listening on television can here Brit Hume conversing with his co-moderators.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyThompson called Pelosi’s Armenian genocide proposal “irresponsible,” preempting Rep. Tom Tancredo who had his hand raised waiting to criticize the Democrats. Tancredo said, “Nancy Pelosi is not a very good Speaker of the House, and she’s an even lousier Secretary of State.”
Huckabee came off strong as the first candidate to propose a serious plan to fight the PKK in Kurdish Iraq that involved dispatching the Secretary of State, training the Kurds to fight terrorists in their midst and convincing Turkey that nothing can be gained by moving troops into Iraq.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroThat was a really, really strong response from Thompson on the laziness question. He got a chance to roll off his bio and dismiss the laziness and fire in the belly questions all in 30 seconds.
From NBC’s Andy MertenA little nitpicky, but he's still citing a country that no longer exists...
McCain just said the United States should set up a missle defense system in Czechoslovakia. Should we assume he meant the Czech Republic?
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeJust asking: Was the only mention of Iraq so far (with just twenty minutes left) the question posed to Ron Paul about his opposition to the war and the similarities/differences with Hillary?
Just a quick baseball update.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyBrit Hume called Thompson out on his relatively aggressive language on what is often called the “third-rail” of politics: entitlement spending. Thompson responded to huge applause by saying, “there is no reason to for the presidency of the United States if you can’t tell the truth.” This past week on the campaign trail Thompson has called for indexing Social Security benefits and the Alternative Minimum Tax to inflation, along with reducing Medicare benefits for higher-income seniors who can afford to finance their own healthcare.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroBiden said this morning that Giuliani doesn't know anything about foreign policy. This latest round, Giuliani tried to dismiss that by rolling off 1) Gorbachev's book and 2) Ukraine. Many probably thought, hmm, he knows something about this region.
From NBC's Chuck ToddSince Fox decided to dedicate an entire round of questions teeing up Clinton as a punching bag for the GOP field, we figured it would be a good idea to get a response from the Clinton campaign. Said spokesperson Howard Wolfson: "I can understand why they're all so angry; as Chris Wallace made clear, they're all losing."
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeWhile Romney doesn't hide his Massachusetts residence on the trail, he seems to be in the debate. There's a lot of "my state" and "in our state" tonight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroSo now the debate (and FOX) is moving on (or back) to Russia. One thing to keep nationalism high in this country is to make sure there's a Boogey Man. Is this FOX's attempt at that?
McCain made a cogent point, saying that the US and Russia are not moving back to a Cold War, as Carl Cameron asked, because Russsia is not as capable.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerProof that everyone has moved on from Giuliani's cell phone incident: His joke fell very flat.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerBoth the Thompson and Giuliani campaigns are attacking Romney for his healthcare plans similarities to “HillaryCare 2.0.” The Thompson camp has sent out three emails, one with a chart comparing the two plans side by side, one with quotes from Time Magazine’s Joe Klein arguing that Clinton’s plan is “essentially the plan [Romney] enacted in Massachusetts,” and one final e-mail calling Romney’s bluff on the claim that his plan would have lower premiums.
So far, the Thompson campaign has sent out eight emails, three criticizing Romney, two criticizing Rudy and three touting Thompson’s conservative record. Is the strategy to discredit Romney and make Thompson more competitive with Rudy?
From NBC’s Andy MertenAnd Huckabee and Thompson are two who have refrained from using Hillary as an applause line during day-to-day campaigning, at least when compared to Giuliani and Romney.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroThe Thompson campaign passes along -- in response to our earlier post -- that candidates are "allowed to take notes while the others are speaking and that's what he's looking at."
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie DannOn Hillary-bashing, what might be most interesting is the candidates' candid acknowledgement that she's a useful punching bag for them.
When her name is mentioned, quipped Huckabee, "It gets louder than an Aerosmith concert." And: "Hillary is always a good applause line," acknowledged Thompson.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeWallace just said to Paul that he opposes the war as does Hillary. He didn't mention any of the other Democrats, most of whom are more against the war than she is. Seems that the moderators are already counting the other Dems out, too.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerWow, is Giuliani playing to the crowd. He used his anti-Hillary lines, knowing it gets good responses from Republicans. And he literally blew Floridians a kiss for keeping Gore out of the White House in 2000. He has not been able to make his arguments as well as Romney thus far, but has been getting his schtick through.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger“I really care about the kids more” got a good applause, but don’t expect an AFT endorsement anytime soon.
So far, it seems the ones beating up on Giuliani the most are the moderators. Wendell Goler's questions reminded a lot of people that Giuliani's NYC record didn't extend to the schools, and that teachers in particular didn't like his heavy hand.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroRon Paul is certainly different than Hillary on libertarian conservatism and spending programs. But he himself just argued he's essentially to the left of Hillary on the war.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroIs anyone else noticing Fred's referring to note cards often? Looks odd. What he's saying's not bad, but the note cards seems to show he doesn't own what he's saying necessarily.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeRomney pounced on Thompson earlier this week for talking about sanctuary cities, saying he was a little late and should have been watching the candidates who've been in the race longer.
Well, Thompson just took another of Romney's big lines about families: making sure all kids have a mom and a DAD.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyThe Thompson campaign also released a well-prepared comparison of the healthcare plan Mitt Romney instituted in Massachusetts, dubbed RomneyCare, and the plan proposed by Hillary Clinton. The email criticized both plans for mandating health insurance, providing tax-payer funded subsidies for lower income citizens, and for imposing financial penalties on businesses who don’t provide insurance for their employees.
Tonight Romney also said he wouldn’t let the moderators give the Democratic legislature “credit” for the healthcare plan he created.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThis round of Clinton questioning has turned this debate into a GOP pep rally.
From NBC’s Andy MertenFor those counting at home, Mitt Romney has now mentioned Hillary Clinton nine times.
(Total count is at least 12 so far, with HRC name-dropping from McCain, Thompson, and Paul)
This goes out the window with the latest segment – devoted to Hillary!
From NBC's Chuck ToddWell, I'm not sure if Fox is doing Clinton a favor or not with this round of questioning. On one hand, it keeps her the inevitable Democratic frontrunner (what the campaign wants), on the other, it's going to be 15 minutes of negative attacks on her and if any of these attacks resonates, could it help Obama and Edwards make their electability arguments?
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroShouldn't Romney's argument on Hillary's experience be Barack Obama's?
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeDuncan Hunter mentioned Romney's optimism, albeit not in a complimentary way. Romney's other way of trying to distinguish himself from the pack: optimism. Don't forget that at the last debate, that was his answer to what is the biggest economic threat facing the country (the lack of optimism).
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeMitt Romney just saying he's not going to give the Democratic legislature credit for a plan he helped build is a huge distinction from what he said on the trail just Thursday in South Carolina.
A woman asked him how he would work with a Democratic Congress, and he brought up his health care plan in Massachusetts, saying he got it passed with the 85% legislature. And he also said his three ways of working with Democrats:
1. Don't attack them personally
2. SHARE CREDIT
3. Find common ground
NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyThe Thompson campaign has already sent out an email explaining the former senator’s stance on tort reform. Along with listing several types of legal reform Thompson did vote for while in the senate, the email also explains Thompson’s federalist argument:
“Believes Legal Reforms Without A Significant Interstate Nexus Are Best Left To The States. Including medical liability reform and volunteer liability protections.”
From NBC's Chuck ToddDid Tom Tancredo just try and step on Ron Paul's turf with his questioning about the Constitutionality of whether the federal gov't should be involved with health care? Very west of him.
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroHuckabee is clearly solid with the one-liners – again hitting on wait until the old hippies find out about all the free drugs when talking about entitlement programs. The problem though for Huckabee is that he’s been overshadowed tonight and it’s hard to see how he elbows his way up.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyThompson tried to brush aside his history lobbying for an abortion rights group saying that was “my private law practice rather than my public service.” He then laid out a new line of defense, rather than saying his work for the group was insignificant as he has been saying, he is attacking the pro-choice group for going public with evidence of his involvement now: “They came forward now because I’m their worst nightmare.”
From NBC's Chuck ToddRon Paul's background as a doctor came through in his answer on health care. I bet his last line -- about how medicine is one of the few areas where technological gains have raised the prices, not lowered them -- really resonated.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeCarl Cameron teed up an issue by stating one of Romney's talking points: He's the only one of the first-tier candidates who supports a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. It's a point that he's been invoking consistently on the trail to prove his conservative credentials and stand out from the pack.
Also, Romney got huge cheers for addressing the issue of consulting attorneys when seeking congressional approval for using force. First attacked by McCain, he turned the tables to say that everyone else on the stage would seek counsel and stressed that he would act immediately. Yes, hair's fixed.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie DannEven though he's thousands of miles away from the Hawkeye State, it's clear that Romney has the caucus on the brain. Mentioning the Polk County same-sex marriage case -- a clear appeal to Iowa conservatives.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerDid Giuliani just make a transgender joke?
But he did say that it wasn't time for a constitutional amendment on gay marriage. Interesting, considering it's an easy applause line for conservatives.
Oh, and add that to his list of professions. He performs marriages now as well.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyThompson didn’t just emphasize his usual Federalist argument on tort reform, which is that all tort reform that doesn’t involve interstate issues should be handled by individual states. Instead he touted the types of reform that he did support while in the senate.
From NBC's Chuck ToddSo far, all of the major candidates -- i.e. the Big 5 of Rudy, Romney, Thompson, McCain and Huckabee -- have gotten off to strong starts; There's a lot of energy tonight.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIf I were thinking like a micro-targeter tonight, I would assume that tonight's Fox News audience was a bit more female (and probably a tad older) than normal because of all the major sporting events competing with this debate tonight. Will any candidate tailor their answer to the audience they THINK is watching tonight?
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. BergerWell it didn’t take long for Giuliani to cut short his positive-only message. “Fred has his problems too,” Giuliani said, speaking of Thompson. “Fred was the biggest single obstacle to tort reform.” And he got a good applause in discussing the dry cleaners case and the losing party paying for legal fees.
"The senator has never had executive responsibility," he said later of Thompson.
He didn't have a choice of picking a sparing partner, Chris Wallace asked specifically about Thompson in two questions. But while Giuliani tried to keep it positive the first time, he came out swinging the second time.
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroFrank Luntz has a focus group and they previewed what they’re looking for before the debate. It was really interesting... Every single one of the focus group members said Hillary Clinton is a "socialist" not just a liberal. And they don't think Republicans are tough enough. Only three said social issues are most important. The rest said terrorism and the war. All said they were undecided... Overall, this bodes well for Rudy.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIf there's any doubt that there's no love lost between McCain and Romney, it should now be erased. McCain accused ROmney of spending the last year trying to "fool people" about his own record.
I'd argue that among the first tier candidates on either side of the presidential aisle, that hit might be the toughest to date.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Romney has been solid in all the debates -- articulate, clearly done homework. Aside from the lawyer comment at the last debate, Romney has looked the executive. But tonight, he seems a little nervous -- back to the wall perhaps? It's certainly a difference.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroVery aggressive for sure. He turned to Romney and said he's been trying to fool people about his record for the past year.
From NBC's Chuck ToddAn interesting line from McCain. Is it a shot at Romney AND Giuliani?
"I didn't manage for profit, I led for patriotism."
From NBC's Chuck ToddFeisty start for Giuliani. After a very good rundown of Giuliani's somewhat questionable conservative credentials by Thompson, Giuliani decided to avoid responding and instead try to put Thompson on the defensive on tort reform. Many southern Republican senators have been hesitant to support so-called tort reform and Thompson was no different.
But the fact that Giuliani is showing no hesitancy to go after Thompson is interesting; it's a more aggressive Giuliani than I expected tonight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroGiuliani shows why he's a tough guy -- he's ready for a fight with Fred. Said he has his problems too and came prepared on his record. Though Fred shows he's done his homework as well and is ready to be the bulldog.
NBC/NJ's Erin McPike notes that Romney hair different. Perhaps forgot the product. (We know this is not the most important thing at all... but, hey, it's Romney, who's known for his perfectly coiffed mane.)
From NBC's Chuck ToddFox is doing Thompson a favor with these first questions, by setting Thompson up as the contrast to both Rudy and Romney. Thompson is part of the first question without having to answer it and he gets to hear the answers from both Giuliani and Romney so the opportunity to "win" this round of the debate is there for the taking.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWho's the real Republican is the first question, and Giuliani is content to allow George Will's essential endorsement of his days as mayor of New York speak on his behalf. It's all about New York. We've heard it before. It's like a stump speech, and Giuliani is really comfortable debating now -- comfortable wearing the front-runner flag.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWe feel for our colleagues at the Fox News Channel having to put on a debate against Game 7 of the ALCS and Sunday Night Football with two AFC teams that have HUGE national followings (Denver and Pittsburgh).
In case you're wondering, barring any rainouts, our next debate (the Democrats in Philly) on Oct. 30 will fall between Games 5 and 6 of the World Series.
And hopefully the World Series will be done by our next GOP debate on Nov. 6 in Cedar Falls, Iowa.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
We'll be liveblogging the debate tonight and have some NBC "boots on the ground" as well. Interestingly, 3,000 people are in the audience and it sounnds like they are going to let them respond to what they hear.
Giuliani got a strong response and so did Romney so far.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Obama might not be beating the competition in the national polls, but he can at least keep'em in check when it comes to raising money. That's exactly what his campaign managed to do Friday, closing a $2.1 million dollar fundraising gap between itself and the Clinton campaign.
When fundraising totals from the third quarter showed that Hillary Clinton had outraised Barack Obama by $2.1 million, the campaign's grassroots fundraising drive kicked into high gear, and a message was sent out to supporters from Obama that said quite simply, "I need you to make a donation to close the gap."
They finally managed to do so late Friday night, five days after the launch of the appeal. The campaign posted a "Thank You, You Closed the Gap," on its Web site Saturday afternoon, which was followed by an email to supporters from campaign manager, David Plouffe. "Late last night, your extraordinary efforts closed the gap in resources between us and the Clinton campaign. We had expected that the drive would continue into next week, but the overwhelming response from so many of you accelerated that timetable," the email said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger The
Romney campaign touted its
Values Voter Summit straw poll victory after speaking to the group yesterday. Romney won with 27.62% of the vote -- just tenths of a percentage point ahead of
Huckabee, who garnered 27.15%. But, as The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder notes, “Of those who were actually at the briefing … Huckabee took more than 50 percent.”
In fact, Huckabee’s on-site support was overwhelming with 488 votes, or 51% to Romney’s 99 supporters or 10% for second.
Giuliani had only 60 supporters in person – about 6% of the on-site vote.
The results are perhaps most disappointing for
Fred Thompson, who was received warmly and has polled well among conservatives nationally and in South Carolina in particular, but apparently he didn’t get the votes in this straw poll. Thompson finished with roughly 10% in the online poll and only 8% of the on-site vote.
The results are another strong indicator for Huckabee, but his paltry fund-raising figures have kept conservatives from rallying around him.
Romney actively campaigned for votes urging supporters via e-mail to vote for the former Massachusetts governor. And Giuliani aides were ready to point out the difference between Romney's score on site versus the Internet voting. They also stressed they don’t participate in straw polls -- likely, however, assuming a poor showing. Giuliani used the same tactic for the Aug. 11 Ames straw poll.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPikeWhile
Giuliani and
Romney have dueled in recent weeks over taxes and national security, there’s another competition going on between the campaigns: endorsements. Although big names don’t always necessarily bring big voting blocs with them, the battle lines are becoming clearer.
As Giuliani seeks to solidify his front-runner status with support from the Republican establishment, he has scored some key figures from the
Bush clan. George W. Bush’s successor as Texas governor,
Rick Perry, who also has been mentioned as a possible Republican running mate this cycle, backed the former New York City mayor on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the president’s nephew and son of Florida Gov.
Jeb Bush, Jeb Jr., declared his support for Giuliani. Former Wisconsin Gov.
Tommy Thompson, who served as the secretary of Health and Human Services during Bush’s first term, declared his support for Giuliani two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Romney is picking up support from conservative leaders in his quest to become the choice of the powerful Evangelical Christian voting bloc. Romney told reporters Thursday he hadn’t known Christian fundamentalist
Bob Jones’ Tuesday endorsement was coming, but was hoping it would. Other helpful names followed into the weekend with Dr. Don Wilton, former president of the South Carolina Baptist Convention, who gave Romney his support on Friday. And today, the morning after Romney’s speech at the Values Voters summit in Washington, DC, Dr. John Willke, a leading pro-life advocate, threw his support to Romney.
From NBC/NJ’s Athena JonesDES MOINES, Iowa --
Clinton addressed the issue of questionable donors from an event last spring in New York’s Chinatown and talked about how she would respond to increased attacks from her rivals while speaking to reporters today after a speech here.
“I’m proud to have support from across our country,” Clinton said. “I represent New York and New York is a symbol of the success of immigrants coming to America and I am pleased to have a lot of first-generation American support as well as people who have been longtime involved in the political process.
“I think with respect to that one event, there were more than 250 people there. My campaign reviewed any of the contributors. We returned money. If new things come to light, we’ll continue to do that.”
The New York Times noted today the Clinton campaign returned $7,000 it determined may have come from people in Chinatown whose professions would make it difficult to contribute so much.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The
Biden campaign announced today that it picked up an endorsement from the Iowa-based Storm Lake Times, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to receive a newspaper endorsement -- either nationally or in Iowa.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. BergerHuckabee took swipes at the changing positions of
Giuliani and
Romney Saturday, telling the Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit that he is “one not who comes to you, but one who comes from you.”
“I believe that there are many who will seek our support,” he said. “But let me say it is important that people sing from their hearts and don’t merely lip-sync the lyrics to our songs.”
Huckabee's message of faith-based politics won numerous standing ovations from the crowd of social conservatives. The mere mention of his name by the forum’s emcee brought the audience to its feet.
“I don’t want ever for us to let expediency or electability replace our principles as the new values,” he said. “The new value needs to be the old values.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Matthew E. BergerGiuliani told members of the Family Research Council Saturday that they have nothing to fear from him and social conservatives will have an open door to his White House.
Speaking to perhaps his most hostile crowd to date -- the Family Research Council’s Values Voter Summit in DC -- Giuliani said he does not understand why some see him as an “activist for liberal causes.” He stressed he has more areas of agreement with social conservatives than disagreements. “Isn’t it better that I tell you what I really believe than I change my positions to fit the prevailing winds,” Giuliani said, a thinly veiled shot at
Romney. “I believe trust is better than 100 percent agreement.”
He pressed for school choice and said he would appoint strict constructionists to the federal bench. He also extolled his support for Israel and described how he cleaned up New York City as mayor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumIn Topeka, KS this afternoon,
Brownback made it official. "Today I'm ending my candidacy for the 2008 Republican nomination for president," he said while surrounded by his family and friends. "I do so with great love for my country, but with the recognition that my yellow brick road just came short of the White House this time."
He apologized to his constituents for his missed votes in the Senate and told them what a privilege it is to continue to represent them. The Kansas senator also said the experience of running for the nomination has its pluses. "I leave this stage a better man and hopefully America a better place," Brownback said, a bit choked up. "I'm amazed at such a wonderful nation, a powerful nation, that could allow the son of a Kansas farmer even to dream that he could live it and lead it."
From NBC's Abby LivingstonPaul tailored his normal libertarian stump speech to appeal to the social conservative set while speaking before the Family Research Council this afternoon. Prior to Paul taking the podium, hawkish
Duncan Hunter received a raucous applause for his support for the war in Iraq. Paul did not glide over his war opposition. Instead, he tied his position to illegal immigration, stating that border patrol agents "don't need to be in Iraq, they need to be here controlling our borders," which was received with only scattered applause.
Paul tackled abortion, striking a positve chord with his pro-life stance. "I think one of the most despicable of all court rulings is Roe vs. Wade." He then mapped out a legislative strategy to put the onus of abortion legality back to the states. "I wonder why we haven't done better with this approach in Washington?" he asked. "I don't get the support that I think we should have. We haven't had the support in the Congress. We had the majority for a good many years. We've had a pro-life president, but we have not moved in that direction."
Paul also voiced his fears of the United States' loss of sovereignty. "Unfortunately, in my lifetime, I have seen it (US sovereignty) just disappear before my eyes when you think about what's happened since World War II. We've joined the UN after World War II. We have a WTO. We have an IMF, the World Bank. We now now have NAFTA and CAFTA, and now we're working on a North American Union. I don't believe we should be in any of those organization, including the United Nations."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
WASHINGTON, DC - With a hall full of conservative voters watching closely, Thompson addressed the Family Research Council’s Values Voter Summit this morning and touted his conservative credentials compared with his opponents’. The Thompson campaign pulled out all the stops for today’s events, filling the lobby at the Washington Hilton with Fred ’08 volunteers wearing t-shirts with the mantra “Go Big or Go Home” written on the back. The volunteers were passing out flyers comparing Thompson’s record on conservative issues to the records of Romney and Giuliani -- trying to prove that Thompson is the most consistently conservative candidate in the race.
In his speech, Thompson continued to distance himself from his opponents. In reference to Romney’s statement during the most recent GOP debate that, as president, he would consult his layers before a preemptive attack, Thompson said, “We need somebody in the presidency of the United States that doesn’t have to call his lawyers in order to know the difference between a good judge and a bad judge.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. BergerCHICAGO -- Many people are comparing
Giuliani’s speech Saturday at the Values Voter Summit to the one he gave several weeks back to the National Rifle Association. Once again, he is going in front of an audience that believes he's different from them on the core issues they care about.
But there's a fundamental difference between the two forums -- and one that does not work in Giuliani’s favor tomorrow. The NRA crowd had a great deal of respect for Giuliani. Gun owners are tough guys, and they repeatedly lauded Giuliani’s handling of 9/11 and his image as a pit bull in New York, even if he did take on gun manufacturers. Indeed, nobody at the NRA crowd talked about a third-party candidacy if Giuliani got the Republican nomination.
He may not have gotten their vote, but many said if he wins the Republican nod, they would back him.
That’s not going to be the case Saturday. Giuliani is facing a group that is actively opposed to him as the Republican nominee, and there will be little he can say to change their minds. He will not be trying to win votes -- but to quell talk of a third-party candidacy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Edwards campaign released a statement criticizing Clinton for her "questionable contributions" from poor residents in New York City's Chinatown that "are raising eyebrows again," as reported in the Los Angeles Times.
"Many of their donors are not even registered to vote," Campaign Manager David Bonior writes, "and at least one denied even making any contribution at all.
Bonior also questions Clinton's electability and her ability to fix a "broken" and "corrupt" system."
“The bottom line is we need a nominee who can do two things," Bonior writes, "campaign in all 50 states and challenge our broken system in Washington. With every day the growing question has to be can Hillary Clinton do either?”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
This afternoon, the Republican National Committee announced that Florida Sen. Mel Martinez (R) is stepping down from his position as RNC general chairman. In that role, Martinez split duties with RNC chairman Mike Duncan, who handled more of the nuts and bolts of the party's operations. A Republican operative with knowledge of the situation tells First Read that with Martinez's exit, the RNC is "returning to its traditional leadership structure" of having just one chairman -- i.e., Duncan.
Martinez said in a statement, "It was my goal as general chairman to lead the party as it established the structure and raised the resources necessary to support our presidential candidate and ensure Republican victories next November. I believe we have accomplished those goals. That's why it is the appropriate time for me to step down as general chairman and continue to focus my energy on serving my constituents in Florida."
President Bush also chimed in with a statement: "As general chairman of the Republican National Committee, Mel has effectively communicated our party's commitment to
addressing the issues most important to all Americans. His message of hope and opportunity has resonated throughout America and strengthened support for our agenda. Because of his leadership, more Americans understand the Republican Party's efforts to grow our economy, support our troops, strengthen our schools, and protect our country."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton calls the "Bush economy" a "trap door" and warns "too many families are one pink slip" away from "losing everything" in a new 30-second television ad up today in early states Iowa and New Hampshire.
An announcer says, "If you're ready for change…she's ready to lead." "Change" has been a theme each of the campaigns, including Republicans, has tried to capitalize on. Obama and Edwards have tried to paint Clinton as a Washington insider, who is not adequate change -- just more of the same.
The Republican National Committee pounced, issuing the following response to the ad: "Hillary Clinton's ill-conceived economic plans would devastate middle class America by placing the burden of massive government growth on the backs of working families. Middle class families already fell through the Clinton trap door when her husband Bill raised their taxes and I doubt they will fall for the same trick twice."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliCONCORD, NH -- Joined by members of the New Hampshire firefighters' union and a group of young students,
Dodd became the first major Democratic candidate to file for the New Hampshire primary.
As he sat down to speak with reporters after filing, Dodd asked Secretary of State Bill Gardner how Gary Hart was doing in New Hampshire when he came to file before the 1984 race. Gardner told him Hart was in single digits at the time. "There you go, I rest my case," Dodd said.
Dodd spoke up strongly for the state's first-in-the-nation primary, saying that as president he'd convene the DNC to immediately begin working to avoid the confusion that has overtaken this year's primary calendar. "This is very good for the country," he said. "If New Hampshire and Iowa did not exist, I don't think that I could be at this table, candidly."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
WASHINGTON, DC -- After his Values Voters speech here, in which he called for all Americans to defend life at every stage,
Brownback refused to confirm the news that he is dropping out of the presidential race this afternoon. “I’m headed back to Kansas and I’ll be making an announcement there,” he said.
The Kansas senator did acknowledge, however, that he is convinced the Republican Party will nominate a “pro-life candidate,” and he feels that
Giuliani does not fit the bill. “Governor
Romney’s certainly taken a pro-life position now,” Brownback said to reporters after his speech. “We’ll see if that’s something that can persuade the American public. My criticism of [Romney] has been that you need someone that believes in the cause to persuade the American public, and if it’s seen as switching on a lot of topics it’s tough to persuade the American public. Mayor Giuliani has said he’s pro-choice.”
Brownback has been openly critical of Romney on the abortion issue, even going as far as to place automated phone calls to voters in Iowa criticizing the former Massachusetts governor for his inconsistent stance on the issue. Today, he confirmed that he does not believe the GOP will nominate Giuliani due to his pro-choice history, and that he feels that the party is divided because “we don’t have an heir apparent for the first time in a couple of decades.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal's Tricia MillerCongressman
Mike Michaud, a former Great Northern Paper mill worker, who now represents the northern part of Maine, endorsed Edwards today. Michaud, who spoke on behalf of Kerry-Edwards in the 2004 general election, said on a conference call with reporters it was a “mistake” that he didn’t endorse in the 2004 primary.
“As a lifelong mill worker,” he said, “I strongly identify with John’s working-class background as the story of America.”
Michaud emphasized Edwards’ electability in red states and cited Oklahoma as a conservative state where Edwards could beat any of the leading Republicans. He said he would be willing to campaign for Edwards in other states. “Edwards has a message,” Michaud said. “He comes from the same background that I came from, a working-class background. He understands issues facing working class men and women.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A Romney campaign memo shows a real effort underway to win the Family Research Council’s Values Voter Summit’s online straw poll. A Romney win here, the campaign hopes, would provide a needed boost among conservatives.
From the memo:
Time has almost run out. We have until Saturday at noon.
I wouldn’t be writing you this evening if I didn’t believe you could make a major difference for Governor Romney’s campaign.
At this crucial moment for the campaign we want to make sure that America knows that voters like you, who care about values, support Governor Romney.
The memo then provides a link encouraging voters to go to the council’s straw poll site (in order to vote, a donation has to be made). In a P.S., the campaign also provides a link to Romney’s new Web ad, featuring Ann Romney reminding viewers of their five children and 38-year marriage (hint, hint).
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In a new Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll of South Carolina Republicans, 45% say they are less likely to vote for Romney because he is Mormon. Also, 27% say they are more likely to vote for him because Bob Jones III's endorsed him. Conversely, 32% say Jones' endorsement actually makes them less likely to back Romney.
Southern Political Report's Tom Baxter says South Carolina may be to Romney what West Virginia was to John F. Kennedy in 1960. "In the 1960 race, West Virginia was viewed as a crucial test of how seriously his Roman Catholic faith affected Kennedy’s election chances," Baxter writes. "Kennedy won the West Virginia primary and went on to the presidency."
Romney has been polling third and even fourth in South Carolina. The campaign has said that a Kennedy-esque speech by Romney has been in the works, but no word on when that might happen.
*** Plenty of warts: Perhaps it’s only fitting that Sam Brownback announces he’s dropping out of the presidential race -- with a press conference in Topeka, KS at 4:45 pm ET -- on the very day that the Republican presidential candidates begin addressing the Family Research Council’s Values Voter Summit in DC. So far, Christian conservatives have been
unable to rally around any of the GOP candidates, even someone like Brownback who should have been a natural fit. To them, Giuliani (abortion, gay rights), Huckabee (lack of money), McCain (past scuffles with the Religious Right, campaign finance reform), Romney (Mormon faith, evolving position on social issues), and Thompson (scant church attendance, Dobson’s criticism) all seem to have warts.
*** The lineup: But all of the GOP candidates get their chance to impress the gathering conservatives. This morning, McCain, Brownback, Paul, and Thompson (in that order) speak at the confab (yes, Brownback is still scheduled to speak). Hunter goes in the afternoon, and Romney and Tancredo give their addresses tonight. Giuliani and Huckabee take their turn on Saturday morning. And with the group’s straw poll, we’ll have an opportunity to gauge which candidates did impress.
***
Rudy’s rise…: It’s probably safe to say that Rudy won’t be their top choice. But that isn’t the campaign’s goal. Instead, it’s to survive -- like Giuliani did after he addressed the NRA a few weeks ago (although we’re assuming that Judi won’t call him in the middle of tomorrow’s speech). His remarks will cap what so far has been another solid week for the GOP front-runner, which included rave reviews from his address at the Republican Jewish Coalition, the endorsement from Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and a new National Journal column today by NBC political analyst Charlie Cook, who admits -- a reversal from earlier in the year -- that Rudy very well might be the guy to beat.
*** … And Mitt’s stumble? One of the reasons why Giuliani’s prospects are looking up, Cook writes, is because Romney’s prospects are looking down: “Romney’s lurch to the right
by saying things he would never have said three or four years ago, juxtaposed with Giuliani’s insistence on pretty much sticking to his guns, even on some positions unpopular with many in the party, makes Rudy look like the leader and Mitt the pandering pol.” Still, if there’s any GOP candidate who is best positioned to get the support from evangelicals, it might very well be Romney. That’s why his address tonight before the group will be something to watch. And according to excerpts of his speech, he appears to take this veiled swipe at Giuliani: "We're not going to beat Hillary Clinton by acting like Hillary Clinton."
***
“Forget it, Jake. It's Chinatown”: So how did Clinton raise so much money from rather poor residents in New York's Chinatown? It's something today’s
Los Angeles Times tries to figure out. Many of the donors were hard to track down, and the ones the paper did talk to didn't seem to tell them a story that started with, "I just love Hillary Clinton." The campaign has raised more money than any campaign in history, but we have to ask: What are they thinking? Who pushed the envelope needlessly on this one? Do they need the money THIS bad? If reporters can easily watchdog this stuff, can't someone on the campaign?
***
Is NH in December a ruse? Reading Bill Gardner’s mind is going to get us in trouble, but has anyone thought that his signals that New Hampshire could hold its primary in December is a way to make the eventual date -- say January 8 -- more palatable to everyone? Think about it: Now that December might be an option, is ANYONE going to complain if Gardner sets the date on Jan. 8, when the DNC had originally set the contest for the 22nd? He ends up a hero, right? The guy that saved the calendar from a mess. Plus, the two state parties in N.H. are pressuring Gardner big time on January, floating the idea that they could let a Dec. primary be a beauty contest, which in turn would lead to candidates skipping it.
*** 50-50 on Jindal getting 50%: On Saturday, Louisiana voters head to the polls to elect a new governor to succeed retiring (and unpopular) Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D), whose re-election prospects were wiped away by Katrina. The man she narrowly defeated for the job back in 2003 -- Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) -- is the overwhelming favorite to replace her. The only question is whether Jindal surpasses the 50% needed to avoid the run-off in a field including several other candidates like Walter Boasso (D) and John Georges (I). Louisiana native Charlie Cook says it’s 50%-50% whether he breaks that threshold. And if he does, Cook cautions against reading too much into that, especially when it comes to the Democrats’ statewide prospects after the exodus Katrina produced. Still, if Jindal does top 50%, many folks (particularly those Republicans interested in targeting Mary Landrieu in 2008) will examine those Katrina-ravaged New Orleans precincts to see just how down the Democratic base vote was.
*** On the trail: Biden campaigns in Iowa; Dodd is in New Hampshire; Edwards picks up the California SEIU’s endorsement and appears on Bill Maher’s HBO show; Giuliani is in Miami; Gravel addresses the Brevard Democratic Executive Committee in Cape Canaveral, FL; Huckabee stumps in New Hampshire; McCain raises money in Florida; Obama holds a rally at Arizona State University; Richardson is in Iowa; Romney visits Iowa; and Tancredo campaigns in New Hampshire.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 18 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 29 days
Countdown to Iowa: 76 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 81 days
Countdown to Michigan: 88 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 92 days
Countdown to Florida: 102 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 109 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 382 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 459 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy just arrived at the summit this morning, and he notes that Thompson has twice as many volunteers than he has seen anywhere else. Trying to make an impression anyone?
CBN’s Brody previews McCain's speech today, noting that the key line is a “swipe” at Romney. : "I have been pro-life my entire public career. I believe I am the only major candidate in either party who can make that claim.... You need only examine my public record to know that I won't ever change my position to fit the politics of the day."
Brody also previews Romney’s. "He brings up his wife Ann numerous times. Clearly, what Romney is implying is that he's not just talking family values, he has the family to prove it. Let's be honest. Ann Romney and their sons are a major asset."
The Washington Post curtain-raises the confab and notes how Christian conservatives are "lukewarm" toward the field right now.
CONTINUED >>
National Journal's Ron Brownstein contrasts the policy proposals Clinton and Obama have rolled out, and notes Clinton is coming across more as a New Deal Democrat, while Obama is coming from the reformist wing of the party. "Ironically, Clinton is speaking primarily to the Democratic coalition that existed before her husband's presidency, while Obama is closer to the upscale new voters that Bill Clinton attracted to the party.”
CLINTON: The Los Angeles Times digs through Clinton's FEC reports and finds that Clinton is raising unprecedented amounts of money from poor Chinatown residents. "Dishwashers, waiters and others whose jobs and dilapidated home addresses seem to make them unpromising targets for political fundraisers are pouring $1,000 and $2,000 contributions into Clinton's campaign treasury. In April, a single fundraiser in an area long known for its gritty urban poverty yielded a whopping $380,000. When Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) ran for president in 2004, he received $24,000 from Chinatown."
“Clinton has enlisted the aid of Chinese neighborhood associations, especially those representing recent immigrants from Fujian province. The organizations, at least one of which is a descendant of Chinatown criminal enterprises that engaged in gambling and human trafficking, exert enormous influence over immigrants. The associations help them with everything from protection against crime to obtaining green cards. Many of Clinton's Chinatown donors said they had contributed because leaders in neighborhood associations told them to. In some cases, donors said they felt pressure to give.”
CONTINUED >>
Our own Chris Matthews writes about what he saw off-camera at the last debate, and how the GOP candidates seem to be enjoying themselves (and each other's company) more than viewers might realize.
BROWNBACK: After he officially gets out of the race, Sam Brownback's endorsement will be highly sought after by the GOP front-runners, because it could be a boost to their so-called “flawed” conservative stances. Giuliani was asked about Brownback yesterday, saying he was “very insightful” in the Republican debates, according to NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger “I can’t speak for why he did it and how he did it, but if you’re asking me do I have a great deal of respect for Sen. Brownback, I do. And I think he made a very positive contribution to the campaign, much as Tommy Thompson did,” he said.
Giuliani said he believes he can win over some of Brownback’s supporters, acknowledging, “I am an optimist.”
CONTINUED >>
Gardner said yesterday, per the AP: "If we have to go in December, we would have to go in December… If the last three weeks of the campaign, if one of those three is the week before Christmas, and one of those weeks is the week between Christmas and New Year's, I don't like that. I would certainly have to address that - in the next cycle."
The Union Leader says Gardner plans to wait until after the filing period ends Nov. 2 to set the date.
Nancy Pelosi will be the keynote at the Iowa J-J dinner on Nov. 10.
The House yesterday failed to override President Bush’s veto of a measure that would expand a health-care program insuring children of the working poor. Per the Los Angeles Times, “The 273-156 House vote was 13 short of the two-thirds majority needed. Despite a two-week campaign by proponents, only 44 Republicans voted to override, one fewer than had originally supported the bill.”
The
New York Times: “For now, the insurance vote stands as the latest example of how Mr. Bush can still get his way on Capitol Hill. Through artful use of veto threats and his veto pen, Mr. Bush has fended off attempts to force a change of course in Iraq — a feat Democrats would never have imagined when they pushed Republicans out of power a year ago. He has twisted Democrats into knots over domestic surveillance, and forced them to rethink a resolution condemning as genocide a century-old massacre of Armenians.”
More: “The outcome on Thursday … came as Congress and the president prepared to square off over a dozen spending bills needed to finance the government in the new fiscal year. President Bush has threatened to veto at least 10 of those measures, while also holding the Democrats responsible for not acting more quickly on the bills, which were supposed to be enacted by Sept. 30.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
RENO, Nev. -- On the heels of President
Bush’s reference to World War III with Iran in a press conference yesterday,
Obama told the crowd of about 2,000 people here, “We now hear the drums of war beating again.”
Obama placed much of the blame for Bush’s comments on the shoulders of Congress and blasted legislators who voted for the
Kyl-Lieberman amendment on Iran saying they are repeating the mistake they made five years ago with the vote to authorize war in Iraq.
“Five years after the original war after the Iraq vote we should have all learned that cowboy diplomacy doesn’t work,” Obama said to a crowd where the line to the room at Grand Hotel and Resort to see him speak wound its way through slot machines and between craps tables, extending the entire length of a casino floor. “The way to support diplomacy is not to support reckless amendments it’s to engage in the tough work of diplomacy.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie DannDES MOINES, Iowa -- Richardson has been critical of Pakistani leader Pervez Musharraf in the past, but today -- after a policy speech on global threats -- he sharpened his tone, calling Musharraf a "dictator" and blasting the Bush administration's "cozy relationship" with him.
Speaking with reporters this afternoon in Des Moines, Richardson criticized the Bush administration for aiding "dictators like Musharraf" rather than focusing on international development and global humanitarian efforts.
"Instead of giving assistance to developing countries on human needs, on micro-lending, on renewable energy," Richardson said, "we're giving US foreign aid to build palaces and to corrupt dictators that are not helping us."
Asked how he plans to address the United States' relationship with Pakistan's president, he said, "I would not give him the kind of assistance we give him unless he does something about the safe havens of the terrorists."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Leading members of the Congressional Steel Caucus have revealed that Chinese-made pipe and tube are being used to construct the congressionally mandated fence along the border with Mexico. They are demanding that something be done to ensure that American made products are used instead.
"It is outrageous, offensive, and unacceptable," says Rep. Jason Altmire (D-western PA). "If they are going to build this with steel it should be U.S. steel. No exceptions," said Rep. Phil English (R-western PA), who added that there are firms in his district that would love to supply materials for building the fence. English calls the barrier a "Great Wall of China."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign has just issued a memo to reporters rebutting today's assertion by Clinton strategist Mark Penn that Hillary Clinton could pick up 24% of Republican female voters in a general election.
The memo's argument:
-- that a recent Cook/RT Strategies poll shows Clinton picking up only 7% of GOP women in a head-to-head match up with Giuliani.
-- that an aggregate Gallup survey showed only 18% of Republican females had a positive impression of Clinton, compared with 15% of Republican men.
The memo concludes: "The one thing that Penn's polling does show, however, is that the Clinton campaign is already taking the Democratic primaries for granted, by apparently already polling general election voters before a single Democrat has cast his or her vote. With more than two-and-a-half months before the first Democratic primary voter casts a vote, Clinton has evidently directed her pollster to prepare for the general election."
"As Barack Obama said last night on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno: Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."
The full memo is below...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten
In his continuing aggressive rhetoric against his Republican opponents, Thompson hit again this morning -- this time on illegal immigration while taking questions in Georgia.
“I voted to do away with sanctuary cities in 1996,” he said of his time in the Senate. “At about that same time, Mayor
Giuliani was supporting the concept of sanctuary cities.”
And on
Romney: “Governor Romney certainly didn’t say anything against sanctuary cities until recently.”
At an event announcing the endorsement of several Cobb County Republicans, Thompson mostly stuck to his ramped up message of being the true conservative in the GOP field. “I was walking the walk when other’s weren’t even talking the talk, yet,” he said.
*** UPDATE *** The Giuliani camp responds: "Senator Thompson's missing a few pages from his screenplay -- not only did he oppose a stricter employment verification system, but he voted to give illegal immigrants more benefits than legal immigrants. Mayor Giuliani on the other hand fought to kick criminal illegals out of the U.S. and cut New York's crime rate in half."
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerThe Missouri-Kansas SEIU state council decided this morning to endorse
Obama, per the group's president Lenny Jones.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The halls of the Capitol are rife with reports of former Speaker Denny Hastert leaving Congress before the end of his term. These reports are only kind of true.
I just spoke with Hastert, who calls the reports a "rumor," and that he has a lot of work still to do for Illinois on transportation, health care, energy, etc. Asked directly if he has plans to resign, he said: "Not at this time." Some reports today had him announcing his plans as early as today. That definitely is not going to happen.
A GOP leadership source says that now the plan is for him to wait until the end of this year or early next to announce his departure. One consideration: the Illinois primary is February 5. If he announces too soon, then the special to replace him would be held that same day, with the state's favorite son --
Barack Obama -- at the top of the ticket, which would work against the Republican candidate to replace Hastert down the ballot.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Pete Stark (D-CA), a gentleman not known for circumspection in his public commentary, has the following to say today on the House floor during the SCHIP debate: "I'm just amazed that they can't figure out -- the Republicans are worried that they can't pay for insuring an additional 10 million children. They sure don't care about finding $200 billion to fight the illegal war in Iraq."
More Stark: "Where are you going to get that money? Are you going to tell us lies like you're telling us today? Is that how you're going to fund the war? You don't have money to fund the war or children. But you're going to spend it to blow up innocent people if we can get enough kids to grow old enough for you to send to Iraq to get their heads blown off for the president's amusement."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Erin McPikePAWLEY'S ISLAND, S.C. -- Romney addressed Sandy Berger, the UN, illegal immigration, abortion and expanding the military in his 100th Ask Mitt Anything town hall here at the Applewood Pancake House on his 15th trip to the state. He also used the same laugh line other candidates have, "Is that Judith?" when an audience member's cell phone rang.
Despite concerns that he would face difficulty in the South coming from Massachusetts, he began by talking about being a Red Sox fan, because, as he acknowledged, "I'm from Massachusetts."
He also previewed his speech tomorrow night at the Values Voters summit in DC, telling audience members that he will outline 12 ways to strengthen the American family.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. BergerIOWA CITY, IA -
Giuliani’s trip back to Iowa yesterday could almost be called a tale of two cities.
His first appearance in Des Moines showcased the resistance his campaign is facing in this state. Giuliani was not introduced by a state official or local supporter, as is usually the case, and had no significant backers to show off behind him. Instead, Texas GOP Gov.
Rick Perry introduced Giuliani, but had to introduce himself and explain his credentials. Giuliani did not get much of his usual applause or laughs, even when he attacked
Hillary Clinton, despite a crowd of mostly college students. His discussion of economic principles and the need for legal reform seemed to go over the audiences’ head.
But his evening appearance in Iowa City showed the potential that Giuliani has. Facing a roaring crowd 20 people deep, Giuliani scored big cheers and laughs from University of Iowa students, and even a protestor was quickly shouted down by supporters. Giuliani took note of the fact that he was the first Republican candidate to visit the school, and seemed to tailor his message more to his youthful audience, while still sticking to legal reform as his signature message of the week. He continued to tell the story of the $54 million dry cleaners lawsuit in Washington, D.C., but did so with more energy and better comedic timing.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The focus of Biden Campaign Manager Luis Navarro’s new strategy memo is Iowa -- and Richardson, who is mentioned twice in the memo.
Navarro prominently excerpts from
Des Moines Register columnist David Yepsen: “The Iowa Poll shows [Biden] gaining support, while Bill Richardson is slipping.” In the
latest Register poll, Biden was at 5 percent (up from 3 a month earlier) in the latest Iowa poll and Richardson at 8% (down from 10). Navarro mentions Richardson again later, noting that Richardson’s South Carolina campaign co-chair switched his support to Biden.
Also noted: that Biden has gotten the support of 11 state legislators in Iowa. Clinton and Obama have slightly more. To that end, Navarro writes, “The campaign has been engaged in a concerted and successful effort to engage and ultimately win the support of key state legislators.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Giuliani campaign announced today that Jeb Bush Jr. -- the son of the former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is President George W. Bush's brother -- has endorsed Giuliani.
But there appears to be a split in the family. Jeb Bush Jr.'s more famous brother -- George P. Bush -- previously endorsed Fred Thompson.
*** UPDATE *** This is the same Jeb Bush Jr. who was caught having sex in a car in a Tallahassee, Fla., mall parking lot in 2000 when he was 16 (no charges were filed) and charged with public intoxication and resisting arrest in Austin, Texas in 2005.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
At one of Washington's favorite morning pastimes -- the Christian Science Monitor breakfast -- chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn pushed back on this notion the campaign has started to shift into general election mode.
In response to various questions from reporters about electability and
Giuliani, Penn took pains to emphasize that they are solely focused on running an "all-out" primary campaign. Penn added that what's working in the primary just happens to be working with general election voters as well, apparently.
As for previewing the general, Penn did make some interesting predictions, including claiming that Clinton could peal away as much as 24% of Republican women which, in turn, could put the "next" five or six states in play. He didn't name those states, but presumably he means lean red states from 2004 -- like Missouri, Virginia, or even some of those western states.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Chuck Todd
The
AP is reporting and First Read has confirmed that
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) will withdraw from the presidential race tomorrow in a speech in Topeka, Kan.
*** UPDATE *** From Mark Murray and Domenico MontanaroFor some context: Brownback officially announced his presidential bid on Jan. 20 -- the very day that Hillary Clinton announced her own bid via her Web site.
Brownback finished a disappointing third (behind Romney and Huckabee) in the Ames Straw Poll back in August. Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson didn't compete in that straw poll.
Brownback raised about $926,000 in the third fundraising quarter -- for a total of $4.2 million for the cycle, which placed him sixth among Republican candidates for president. He was left with about $95,000 cash on hand with no debt.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Is Iran the new Iraq? If you needed more evidence that Iran is becoming a GIANT issue heading into 2008, look no further than Bush’s press conference yesterday, in which he warned that a nuclear Iran could spark World War III. Indeed, all the GOP front-runners are trying to outdo each other in sounding the most hawkish on Iran. And the Democrats are discussing Iran, too (although more in the context over Clinton’s vote that Iranian Revolutionary Guard resolution). Come the general election, could it be that Iraq is Issue 1A and Iran is 1B? It’s probably something Republicans would like to see. As Tim Russert said on NBC’s Nightly News last night, Republicans would certainly prefer to debate something other than Iraq.
***
Playing the gender card: First, it was the laugh. Now, Hillary Clinton talks about “all these men” when deflecting criticism. A day after Obama argued that the politics she practices is timid and divisive, Clinton said Wednesday, per NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum: "Now, I've noticed that the last couple of weeks, I've been getting a lot of attention from the men in this race. And at first, you know, I didn't know what to make of it. And then a good friend of mine said, you know, when you get to be our age, having that much attention from all these men." She said something similar on Olbermann last week. It’s ironic that the Democratic candidate who has been playing the gender card -- even jokingly -- is Clinton. Of course, it’s an effective strategy: Her campaign wants to keep her above the fray, and doing it with a laugh is a bonus. By comparison, the Clinton her rivals want to see is the Clinton who snapped at that questioner in Iowa or who got testy with NBC’s Tim Russert at last month’s debate. But will they get it?
*** Are the GOP attacks helping Hillary? “All these men,” of course, also refer to the Republicans who have ganged up on Clinton. While these GOP hits certainly help the Republican contenders -- they help Giuliani, for instance, appeal more to conservatives -- don’t they also help Clinton? Don’t the GOP hits on her rally Democrats to her side? Is that another reason why her fav rating has improved in recent weeks?
<
***
A more aggressive Fred: Has anyone else noticed that Thompson has become much more aggressive in recent days? On Monday, he implicitly questioned Giuliani’s conservative credentials in a speech to the Conservative Party of New York. Yesterday, it appeared he was trying to whack both Giuliani and McCain on taxes. And now we find out, per the
Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder, that the campaign is now running a Web ad on conservative sites hitting Giuliani and Romney on abortion. The final screen reads, “Fred Thompson. The REAL conservative.”
***
The E-word resurfaces: It's always a double-edged sword when a campaign gets a write-up indicating that they shouldn't be written off yet. On the one hand, they are glad to get it; on the other, they don't like to be in a position where they need folks to write it. But
David Yepsen writes such a column today. “[W]atching him work in the sweaty auditorium of a Waukee elementary school Tuesday night, one gets a different feeling: Iowa Democrats may still give this guy a new lease on political life. Why? John Edwards is tenacious and still in the hunt for first place… Perhaps the best argument for Edwards' candidacy is his potential for electability.” Speaking of electability, the Edwards campaign today is unveiling its four-day "True Blue Majority" pitch, claiming that its candidate is the only one who can put states in play in the South and Mountain West; Edwards and surrogates will be in places like Georgia and Oklahoma to underscore the claim.
*** On the trail: Biden campaigns in Iowa; Clinton holds a health-care forum at the Kaiser Family Foundation; Edwards raises money in California; Giuliani campaigns in Minneapolis and Chicago; Huckabee is in New Hampshire; McCain stumps in South Carolina; Obama is in Nevada; Romney holds several events in South Carolina; and Thompson is in Georgia.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 2 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 19 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 30 days
Countdown to Iowa: 77 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 82 days
Countdown to Michigan: 89 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 93 days
Countdown to Florida: 103 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 110 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 383 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 460 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
In his new conference yesterday, the Washington Post writes, “Bush forecast doomsday if Tehran builds nuclear weapons. ‘We got a leader in Iran who has announced that he wants to destroy Israel,’ he said. ‘So I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from [having] the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.’”
The
New York Daily News on Bush’s WWIII comment: “White House sources confirmed it was the first time Bush has floated that apocalyptic scenario for the Islamic republic. His language seemed even starker as he admitted relations with Russia have grown frostier. Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iranian leaders in Tehran Wednesday. The tougher talk seems to move Bush rhetorically closer to Vice President Cheney in an intensifying internal White House debate over the gravity of the threat posed by Iran.
Does anyone think this makes Iraq potentially more chaotic? The New York Times: “Turkey’s Parliament voted overwhelmingly on Wednesday to authorize sending troops into northern Iraq to confront Kurdish rebels in hide-outs there, sending an angry message to the Baghdad government and its Washington sponsor. But Turkey, a member of NATO, made it clear that it would not immediately carry out the resolution.”
BIDEN: Biden, one of the architects of the Violence Against Women Act, unveiled his national plan to combat domestic abuse. Per the Des Moines Register, his “plan creates the National Domestic Violence Volunteer Attorney Network Referral Project, which would be managed by the American Bar Association Commission on Domestic Violence. The project would cost roughly $2 million a year, mostly to create and maintain an electronic network that could rapidly respond when needed.”
CLINTON: The Boston Globe front-pages Clinton’s efforts to appeal to women. “Clinton is increasingly portraying herself more as motherly and traditional than as trailblazing and feminist, sometimes playing up the differences between men and women.”
The Hill, in a way, fact-checks the "35 years of experience" line that many of her supporters use to refer to when she became a public advocate of sort. "Citing experience as a non-elected official can be tricky, according to some analysts. While her campaign has suggested that she played a major role in her husband’s leadership of Arkansas and later of the country, she wasn’t elected to office until 2000."
CONTINUED >>
If there is one domestic issue that Democrats regularly exploit against Republicans in general elections, it's Social Security. Did Giuliani and Thompson say too much about what they'd do with entitlements to cause them problems in, say, a swing state like Florida?
Bloomberg News curtain-raises the Values Voters summit that begins today and lasts through the weekend, and notes the divide in the Christian conservative community over what to do about Giuliani. "They are also divided on whether to field a third-party candidate if Giuliani wins the Republican nomination, which may deliver the White House to Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, who is leading the Democratic pack.”
An AP-Ipsos poll out shows, “Among conservatives overall, 21 percent support Fred Thompson, about even with Rudy Giuliani's 20 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided, 12 percent supported John McCain and 10 percent supported Mitt Romney.”
CONTINUED >>
NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann doesn't expect a decision soon by the Iowa Democrats on a caucus date. The day after Iowa Republicans announced their January 3rd date, mixed messages abound about when the Democratic contest will be held. Per Lee Newspapers' Dan Gearino, Gov. Chet Culver indicated yesterday that that the Democratic National Committee might hold the final authority. Culver told reporters, "We ultimately have to get their blessing" to move earlier than the currently scheduled January 14th date. That sentiment jibes with the buzz in Des Moines that Culver, Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, and other party bigs are in heavy talks with DNC chairman Howard Dean and party leaders from other primary states to hammer out a schedule.
Short of hiring a team of highly reliable mind-readers, there's not much that caucus planners can do except wait for further word, which Culver says will come "in the coming days or weeks." But for those handicapping the potential dates -- which appear to be January 3rd, 5th, or the original date of the 14th -- keep in mind what the Democrats' major concerns might be. They want a high turnout (hence why very important people in Iowa are actually losing sleep over the Orange Bowl, which will be on the 3rd); they'd like enough breathing room before the next contest to maximize the "Big Mo" factor for the victors; they hope to avoid the bad publicity that could be caused by voter confusion, fraud, and the potential logistical nightmare of two different caucus dates; and they also don't want to seem like they've been bullied into accepting the January 3rd date chosen by the GOP.
CONTINUED >>
Despite low approval ratings and little political clout, President Bush “
scolded the Democratic-led Congress yesterday for having ‘little to show for all the time that has gone by.’” Pelosi in response: “While the Democratic Congress works to pass children's health insurance, to protect Americans while preserving civil liberties, and to end the disastrous Iraq war, the president chose to launch another partisan attack.”
The
Washington Post: “House appears unlikely to overturn Bush's veto of the children's health bill today, after which the president said his staff can broker a deal with lawmakers. Bush had proposed a 20 percent increase in funding for the program, which budget analysts said would be inadequate to cover even the children currently insured. The vetoed bill would have pumped an extra $35 billion into the program over five years, more than doubling the funding, to increase the number of people covered from 6.6 million to 10 million. Bush calls that a step toward socialized medicine because it would cover many families that now have private insurance.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-TreworgyRomney rounded out the scheduled appearances today by GOP presidential candidates at the Club for Growth’s fall conference in DC. The former governor touted his economic accomplishments in Massachusetts and continued distinguishing himself from Giuliani over his support for the line-item veto.
“I used that 844 times as governor of Massachusetts,” Romney said. “I’m glad I had it.”
A day after Thompson called for Republicans to spend less time worrying about Hillary Clinton and more time worrying about themselves, Romney spent several minutes criticizing Clinton’s view of the role of government.
“[Clinton] believes in big government and bigger taxes, if you will, big brother making life better for everybody,” Romney said. “She’s described her economic philosophy by contrasting it with what we’ve known for the last couple hundred years. She said we’ve always been an on-your-own society…we should be a we’re-all-in-it-together society, a shared responsibility society. So it’s out with Adam Smith and in with Karl Marx.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
The confirmation hearing for Attorney General nominee Michael Mukasey has ended for the day and will resume tomorrow.
Today's hearing produced little drama. Members of both parties praised him, and there's no doubt he'll be confirmed. Mukasey showed some sparks of independence that may go beyond what the White House was expecting. He was asked, for example, what he thought of a new book by a former Justice Department lawyer that's critical of the way the Bush Administration created legal policy on the war on terror. The book, by Jack Goldsmith, is especially critical of David Addington, the former general counsel and now chief of staff to Vice President Cheney.
"I thought it was superb. I couldn't put it down," Mukasey said.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Regarding Bush's criticism today of Hill Democrats' record on getting him annual spending bills on time, it may bear noting that it very seldom happens that Congress sends the must-pass bills to the president by the beginning of a fiscal year, October 1.
Consider:
-- Last year (under GOP control), one of 12 spending bills was enacted before October 1. Republicans eventually were unable to pass many of the bills at all, passing a continuing resolution into this year and leaving it to newly empowered Democrats to sort it out.
-- The year before that (also under GOP control), two had been passed by October 1, and the last bills did not get to the president until December 30.
According to the House Appropriations Committee, during the Bush Administration and with Repubs in power on the Hill: the president has signed three omnibus bills in six years; appropriations bills were completed in December twice, in January twice, and in February twice; the Federal government has operated under a continuing resolution for at least some portion of every year; and Congress has enacted only six (out of a possible 74) appropriations bills before the end of the fiscal year.
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Fred Thompson was the second of three GOP presidential candidates to address the Club For Growth’s Fall Economic Conference this afternoon in DC. As he has done before, Thompson called for both the Alternative Minimum Tax and Social Security benefits to be indexed to inflation until more permanent solutions can be found. He also called for a reduction in the United States’ corporate tax -- one of the highest in the world -- to at least 28 percent, which Thompson said would “put us pretty much in the middle with all these other countries.”
As his campaign tries to get more specific on the issues, Thompson came out with a new stance on Medicare, calling for increased deductibles and lower benefits for higher-income individuals.
“I think we need to do more to help people save for themselves during their working years,” Thompson said. “I’m talking about the private accounts. I think we have to address the question of whether or not we can stick with the same premiums and deductions for higher-income recipients on Medicare. Maybe we have to look at premium deductions.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that backers of an override of Bush's expected SCHIP veto are "still in the fight," even as leaders are actively considering what their next step will be after the likely failure of their effort tomorrow.
Democratic leaders are now thinking about tweaking the bill around the margins as a post-vote strategy, hoping to give wavering Republicans enough of a fig leaf to switch their votes the second time around. The trouble with trying to pressure them to switch for the override vote is that there is more political peril in flip-flopping than there is in opposing the bill, say Hill folk on both sides of the aisle.
There could be some language formally barring illegal immigrants from benefits, or formal language capping incomes at a certain percentage above the poverty line. There will be no reduction in the cost of the program or the number of children covered. If THAT gets a veto and fails in an override, the some Democrats think the best thing to do would be to extend the program as it is until September, then have another vote six weeks before the election.
Dems feel they have a winner on both the politics and the policy, and that the issue polls through the roof in their favor. Republicans, in fact, are looking for cover, and have prevailed upon the president to talk of compromise.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
When asked about the "how busy is he?" factor, Thompson's campaign is looking to turn around a perceived negative. Aware of the heavier event pace carried out by other Republican candidates, advisers say that is "not necessarily a good indicator of what Fred should be doing."
In addition to this week's scheduled speeches and fundraising, advisers say Thompson has spent some time away from retail politics since the CNBC/MSNBC/WSJ debate to focus on policy papers development.
Advisers say to expect Thompson to soon roll out more detailed ideas as he makes campaign stops. Among the topics: immigration, homeland security, health care, education, strengthening the military ,and judicial appointments. Thompson has already begun talking about his suggested reform for entitlements.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Giuliani and Clinton continue to lead by significant margins in new Quinnipiac tri-state area polls in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. With winner-take-all Republican primaries in these states, the AP notes that this would give Giuliani 183 delegates -- “15 percent of the 1,228 he needs to secure the nomination.”
The Democratic contests are proportional, but Clinton “could win more than 250 of the 2,181 she’d need.” Obama hopes to get some of those. He recently held a 20,000-plus rally in New York City’s Washington Square Park.
From NBC’s Domenico MontanaroThe
Obama campaign reports that in its “close-the-gap” effort with
Clinton it has now raised $950,000 since yesterday morning. At the end of quarter three, Clinton had $34.2 million cash on hand to Obama’s $31.9 million.
From NBC's Julia Steers and Mark MurrayFormer Rep.
Cynthia McKinney (D), who lost her congressional seat last year after her publicized scuffle with a Capitol Hill police officer, registered to vote in California -- and is being pushed by some to run for president as a Green Party candidate, the
AP reports. Despite McKinney posting a letter on her Web site last month, saying she is not interested in the Green Party nomination, a group called "Run! Cynthia! Run!" is trying to draft her as a candidate in California. McKinney and six other Green Party candidates, including Ralph Nader were nominated by the Green Party Convention in September, and McKinney has yet to remove her name from the ballot.
"'She's got us all guessing, but she hasn't removed her name, and that's a good sign,' said John Morton, a California Green Party delegate, 'I talked to her last week and she said she's very interested but not ready to make an announcement.'"
From NBC’s Andy Merten
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Giuliani received the endorsement of Texas Gov. Rick Perry this morning here -- his first nod from a sitting governor. Perry cited the former mayor’s success in reducing crime and cutting spending during his tenure, in addition to his preparedness in dealing with terrorism, as reasons for supporting him.
But Perry began his remarks with a topic that isn’t always acknowledged as one of Rudy’s strengths -- illegal immigration. “There’s no such thing as homeland security without border security,” the governor said, asserting that Giuliani’s success fighting crime will equip him to reduce illegal border crossing as president.
Perry also used his brief remarks to get in a dig at
Romney. Poking fun at the former Massachusetts governor’s Iran gaffe at last week’s debate in Dearborn, Mich., in which he said he would consult attorneys before pursuing unilateral military action against Tehran. The next president “must be able to stare down criminal elements,” Perry said, “whether they’re trafficking drugs or planting roadside bombs -- without dialing up their lawyer first.”
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** Calendar madness: Welcome to the theater of the absurd. The possibility that both parties will have two separate primary calendars is growing more likely by the day, especially after the Iowa GOP set Jan. 3 as its date and the South Carolina Dems are set for Jan. 26 (when the SC GOP is going on Jan. 19). While it may make sense in the backrooms of a rules and bylaws committee meeting at the RNC or DNC, the average voter is probably going to be confused. What is the unintentional consequence of that? Will independents end up not participating in Iowa? Will only the most partisan activists know when their primary is? The fact that we're potentially inside of 80 days before voting begins and the candidates don't know EXACTLY when the various election days are seems beyond ridiculous. And this is the democracy we're trying to export around the world? Correct us if we're wrong, but this is an election for leader of the free world? Most city council and school board elections are straight forward, why can't our presidential election be that way, too? ? To put it another way, imagine if Major League Baseball -- as of right now -- had not yet decided whether the World Series would be a best-of-seven or a best-of-nine series. It's that bizarre in this thing we call our presidential nominating process.
 |
|
***
Obama gets his anti-Clinton rhetoric down pat: With David Axelrod at his side (a somewhat rare occurrence of late), Obama went after Clinton yesterday -- both complimenting her and describing the politics she practices as timid and divisive. “If every move you’re making is based on a static politics where you are looking backwards and this is what the polls tell me, this how much room we have to maneuver … you’ll be a vast improvement over George Bush,” he said. “But you are not going to deliver on the major challenges, and you are not going to set a broad vision for the country.” So far, the Clinton camp has responded to all Obama attacks the same way: Is this the "politics of hope"? If/when the Clinton camp decides to respond more directly will be interesting to watch. The Clinton camp has not had to go negative, and that's allowed Hillary to raise her favs. In fact, in the most recent Gallup poll, Clinton's saw her positives go up, while Obama saw his fav rating drop for the second poll in a row.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on Obama's task and the primary calendar madness.
*** Did the GOP find its model? As expected, yesterday's special congressional election in Massachusetts was indeed closer than expected. Democrat Niki Tsongas narrowly edged GOPer Jim Ogonowski, 51%-45%, with third party candidates nabbing the rest. Despite the loss, the Republican candidate may prove to be a model for GOP candidates in 2008: Run against Washington and characterize the Democrats as status quo establishment. Of course, this Republican had an easier time making this case because his opponent was a known entity. Will that be the case for every Dem House incumbent in '08? Then again, if Clinton is at the top of the ticket, does her presence help give Republican challengers the "establishment" ammunition they need with undecided swing voters?
*** Why the no-shows? But while Ogonoswki’s narrow loss is good news for the GOP, the bad news is that many of the party’s presidential candidates blew off last night’s RNC fundraiser. Five were supposed to show up (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, Paul, and Thompson), but only Romney and Paul showed up. As one GOP activist told us last night, it was a bit demoralizing to only have one of the Big Four address a supposedly major RNC gala. Talk about feeding into this theme that the Republicans are much less enthused about the upcoming election than the Democrats. Last night's gala did just that for Grand Old Party.
***
In Da Club: After yesterday’s Republican Jewish Coalition confab -- and before the upcoming Values Voters Summit -- some of the top-tier GOP presidential candidates hit yet another Republican cattle call: the Club for Growth’s Fall Conference in DC. Giuliani (who has already spoken), Thompson (who goes later), and Romney (who speaks via satellite) all address the conservative group. Before speaking, Giuliani picked up an endorsement from Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R). Rudy’s has had a good week so far: He received praise from Republicans for his speech at the Republican Jewish Coalition. But the Values Voters Summit at the end of the week will be key.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Clinton holds an oversight hearing on the federal Superfund program's activities to protect public health and then speaks at the National Women's Finance Council Summit in DC; Edwards campaigns in Iowa; Giuliani heads to Iowa; Huckabee speaks at two forums in New Hampshire; McCain holds two town halls in South Carolina and then raises money in Charlotte, NC; Obama appears on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno; Richardson fundraises money in New York; and Romney is in Iowa.
*** Presser time: And a late addition today: Bush will have a news conference at 10:45 am ET, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports. Advisers say he's expected to speak for about seven to 10 minutes before taking questions -- and his focus will be mostly domestic issues (like the FISA legislation, the SCHIP battle, No Child Left Behind, and Michael Mukasey's Senate confirmation hearing today). Bush's opening will also include comments about the House resolution regarding the Turkey/Armenian issue.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 3 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 20 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 31 days
Countdown to Iowa: 78 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 83 days
Countdown to Michigan: 90 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 94 days
Countdown to Florida: 104 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 111 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 384 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 461 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails
Believe it or not, we're inside of 80 days and the candidates still don't know when all of the January (or even December) election days are going to be. Last night, this is what we learned:
-- Iowa Republicans will hold their caucuses Jan. 3
-- South Carolina Democrats will hold their primary Jan. 26
-- Nevada Democrats will hold their caucuses Jan. 19.
Here's what we don't know:
-- will the Iowa Democrats join the Iowa Republicans on Jan. 3?
-- will the New Hampshire primary accept being on Jan. 8, or somehow jump into December and risk some candidates skipping the contest?
-- will the two parties have two different January calendars? As it stands now, Republicans could start on Jan. 3 in Iowa, head to Wyoming for a Jan. 5 caucus, travel to New Hampshire for the Jan. 8 primary, then participate in a Jan. 15 Michigan primary, a Jan. 19 South Carolina primary and end in Florida on Jan. 29. The Democrats are ONLY committed to participating in contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, with Iowa and South Carolina on different January days from the Republicans.
-- If Iowa Democrats are convinced that by going the 14th, they’ll preserve their first-in-the-nation status for 2012 and 2016, they'll do, mark our words on this one.
CONTINUED >>
Clinton spent $11.88 on iTunes, $15K on liquor, and $9,000 at an Aspen restaurant. Another interesting find: Philip Rotz, who works for the Clinton foundation, gave $500 to Obama. "I don't really want to comment," Rotz said. "But the filing is where my sentiments lie and where my imagination and interest is captured."
The New York Times adds, Fred D. Thompson spent nearly $400,000 for Web services, his largest expense. John Edwards had some 130 people on his payroll in Iowa. Rudolph W. Giuliani rented an office in North Dakota.”
Obama and Clinton have spent millions on their campaign “armies” for ads, events and mailings, the New York Daily News writes, “each shelling out nearly $4 million to a legion of aides and consultants. Clinton pollster Mark Penn is the political top gun, pulling in almost $1.6 million for his firm, while Obama's top earner, David Axelrod, racked up nearly $400,000 for his media shop.”
According to the Des Moines Register, Romney has raised more money from Iowa ($149,000) than any other candidate. Clinton is second ($126,000). Obama raised $117,000 and Edwards $105,000. Small numbers compared to the millions they’ve raised overall.
The Politico’s Elizabeth Wilner asks a good question in her latest column: Why isn’t anyone talking about whom John Kerry -- the party’s nominee in ’04 -- might endorse? “[T]he lack of an audible clamor for an endorsement by Kerry is more than a bit deceiving, as is the perception that he’s still wandering around in that wilderness to which all losing Democratic nominees are cast. The two top candidates who aren’t married to Elizabeth Edwards are quietly seeking his advice and support. An associate suggests that Kerry may hold off on endorsing until closer to the primaries, but when he does make his choice, that candidate will get access to a 3-million-name e-mail list, possibly the largest in the party.”
BIDEN: We've been very complimentary of the grind-it-out campaign Biden's been running in Iowa, but his claims yesterday that if he finishes a "close fourth" in Iowa will be enough to keep going seems to ring a tad hallow. Remember, there's no "zinc" medal at the Olympics.
CLINTON: Here's a fascinating endorsement for Clinton. Former ABC News veteran Carole Simpson surprised the campaign last night when she showed up in New Hampshire to endorse her, according to NBC/NJ's Athena Jones. “For 40 years I’ve been a journalist, and I have covered our national leaders from Lyndon Johnson to President George W. Bush,” said Simpson, who was there with her class. “I endorse you for president of the United States. It’s very freeing now that I’m not a journalist, that I’m able to speak my own mind and free expression, but I just wanted you to know that I had a dream that before I died I would see a woman as president of the United States. I think you are the woman and I think this is the time.”
CONTINUED >>
We've gotten some chatter from some GOP party leaders who were in attendance at last night's RNC fundraiser wondering why all the presidentials blew it off. One activist said if Romney had not stayed, it would have been a PR and "psychological" disaster. NBC/NJ's Erin McPike reports: In the same week that the GOP’s four first-tier presidential candidates tried to best each other with their Republican credentials, only Mitt Romney addressed the Republican National Committee’s “Presidential Trust” dinner at the National Building Museum Tuesday night.
RNC spokesman Dan Ronayne said the event was new for the party and called it “a chance for our donors to see all the candidates.” Those 710 donors, each of whom contributed at least $1,000, helped raise $5 million for the party. But the only two candidates they saw were Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said after the event, “Showing up is half the job. Gov. Romney was grateful for the opportunity to address all the Republican activists who are helping to build the party.”
Although Ronayne said that all of the party’s candidates were invited, the RNC’s program had included five, with Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and John McCain slated to join Romney and Paul. Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella explained via e-mail after the event that Giuliani “was not originally scheduled to speak at the dinner” and added that “the RNC incorrectly advised it.” No warnings were issued concerning Thompson’s appearance, but he also failed to address the dinner crowd. After the event, a representative from Thompson’s campaign stated that as the schedule of the event changed, Thompson was happy to speak at the reception prior to the dinner instead.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times previews AG nominee Michael Mukasey’s confirmation hearing today.
Yesterday, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy told reporters that he expects the Senate will confirm Mukasey, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. Leahy said after several conversations with the nominee, "I don't see a bombshell on the horizon" that would derail his path to confirmation. A full Senate vote, however, is still likely weeks away.
After various scandals within the Department of Justice, where Democrats contend former AG Alberto Gonzales caved to political pressure from the Bush Administration, Leahy believes Mukasey has the ability to be independent. "Everything I've heard from him, I hear a man who's not going to give up his independence to anybody. Not to either political party and not to a president. And that's the way the attorney general should be," Leahy said.
CONTINUED >>
Niki Tsongas, widow of Paul Tsongas, defeated Jim Ogonowski in a special election in Massachusetts’ fifth congressional district, 51%-45%, the Boston Globe writes.
Democratic House campaign committee chairman Chris Van Hollen released a statement congratulating Tsongas’ win. “Massachusetts voters sent a clear message, they support candidates who fight for their values to provide children’s health care and work to end the war in Iraq.”
The GOP House campaign committee released its own take on what it called Tsongas’ “severely underperforming single digit victory.” “Democrats wrongly assumed they could continue to ride the 2006 wave to overwhelming victory in the bluest of blue states. Instead, in what should have been an election blow-out, Republican candidate Jim Ogonowski kept it close to the end, proving a major shift in the national political environment that, until now, was favorable to Democrat candidates nationwide.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Lots of campaign rebuttals out there to comments rivals made today...
-- To Giuliani saying that Obama is "not Ronald Reagan" for wanting meet with unsavory world leaders like Hugo Chavez, Obama spokesman Bill Burton told First Read: "While Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton do not think we should engage in the type of strong diplomacy practiced by Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy, Obama does. And given the hefty fee that Hugo Chavez's oil company paid Rudy Giuliani's firm, he apparently thinks we shouldn't talk to Chavez, but it's fine to take his money."
-- To Giuliani's statement today that "I gave my blood for the Republican Party in New York," the McCain campaign emailed us a video of Giuliani from 1996 (via TPM), when he said: "Well, I'm a Republican mayor, but I'm really not."
-- To Clinton's call to expand the Family Medical Leave Act, a Dodd spokeswoman shot back, "We applaud Senator Clinton for her efforts today to expand the Family and Medical Leave Act, of which Senator Dodd is the author, and invite her to cosponsor the bill he proposed earlier this year which would accomplish much of what she called for today."
-- To McCain's criticism of the Biden-Brownback plan on Iraq -- because it ignores that Iraqis are Iraqis first -- Biden communications director Larry Rasky responded: “Iraqis once were 'Iraqis first' and we hope that someday they will be again, but Senator McCain ignores the hard reality that they are not ‘Iraqis first’ now. More than 90 percent of Iraqis voted for sectarian lists in the last election and they're also voting with their feet –- some 4 million have fled their homes, mostly for fear of sectarian violence."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Although
Thompson has been MIA for almost a week, canceling his only public event in New Hampshire last weekend, his appearance last night and then again today, show that he has been practicing. He has rolled out new language in his stump speech and limited his stumbles. At the Republican Jewish Coalition's Presidential Candidates Forum this afternoon, Thompson centered his remarks on the commonalities between the United States and Israel. "The enemy we face is a common one with Israel," Thompson said. "I've supported a strong Israel ... my entire eight years in the United States Senate.
"The terror masters in Tehran and Damascus make only the most minor distinctions between the United States of America and Israel. They say that America is the Great Satan, and Israel is the Little Satan, but they both must be destroyed. They organized the assassination of Lebanese political leaders, and turned that aspiring democracy into little more than a hostage state. The U.S. must make it clear that we will not allow Iran to become a nuclear threat. The military option must never be off the table. ... And as we pursue sanctions and other traditional means, we need to take other steps to reach out to the Iranian people themselves and help them get rid of their hated regime."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In his turn to address the Republican Jewish Coalition, Romney discussed his views on international relations. Invoking Jewish Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman, Romney said Republicans and Lieberman have "the right view" while the Democrats are wrong in their global worldview regarding Iraq, the war on terrorism, and Israel. Specifically with Iran, Romney said it is important for people to realize Ahmadinejad is testing the world. "His denial is not about history; it is about the present," Romney said. "He is denying the Holocaust to see how people will respond.
"It is time for the Democrats to break their silence and answer this question: Will you work to stop a nuclear Iran? Let me assure you one thing, I will."
Romney also said the military option "is in our hand," and under his administration, America would be "poised and ready to act."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Adam Verdugo
In an interview with MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell this afternoon, Lynne Cheney revealed that while researching the Cheney family tree for her new book "Blue Skies, No Fences," she discovered that the Vice President Cheney and Barack Obama are related -- albeit distantly. According to Mrs. Cheney, the two politicians are eighth cousins.
*** Update *** The Obama campaign emails NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan that the Chicago Sun-Times actually wrote about this relation back in September, although the article notes that Obama and Cheney are 11th cousins -- not 8th cousins.
*** Update II *** Our mistake: The Sun-Times says that Obama and George Bush are 11th cousins, and Obama and Cheney are ninth cousins once removed. It seems we're all related....
From NBC's Mark Murray
As we mentioned earlier, Obama's campaign today issued a fundraising appeal to supporters to close the gap between Clinton's cash on hand and Obama's.
As of 3:30 pm ET, per the Obama Web site, the campaign has raised more than $460,000.
For those of us who covered the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2003-4, Obama's appeal seems very similar to the "bats" the Dean campaign would employ to raise money. The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder smartly asks, "Did Howard Dean ever raise this much, this quickly, in 2003?"
Obama spokesman Bill Burton emails First Read, "I can tell you that we are experiencing the biggest spike in online donations since the day we announced."
From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell
NBC News has learned that Jeri Thompson, wife of republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson, is canceling the first public event where she was to appear on her own. Jeri Thompson had previously agreed to participate in a high-profile forum featuring spouses of presidential hopefuls from both political parties. The event, Tuesday Oct 23rd in Long Beach, Calif., will be moderated by California First Lady Maria Shriver to discuss the balance of politics and family as part of her annual Women's Conference.
Sources close to the 41-year-old mother of two small children say, "We regret that we cannot be there" and stressed, "We were apologetic." The reason cited for the cancellation is "scheduling." Jeri Thompson is scheduled to make her first solo trip campaigning as a surrogate for her husband next week. She is also set to deliver a speech at the Jewish Coalition forum tomorrow with no press coverage.
Organizers of the Shriver event say they "heard rumblings yesterday" about a possible cancellation and expressed hope that "it's salvageable." Planners called it a "brain scratcher" and noted that media kits and materials for the event already printed have Jeri Thompson listed as a participant.
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliCONCORD, NH --
Tancredo filed for the New Hampshire primary this morning, saying that the Colorado Rockies have shown that "anything can happen."
"I know the odds are long," he said. "[But] in April the Rockies were too hurt for a team. And in August, they just couldn't put it together. September, they were too far behind. And look what happens." He added, "Anything can happen, in sports and in politics."
Tancredo paid the $1,000 filing fee by check, after filling out the declaration of candidacy form at the historic filing desk in the secretary of state's office. Tancredo is the first of the major presidential candidates to file.
After filing, Tancredo laughed at the idea that Romney was challenging other candidates' Republican credentials. "I don't think I were do that if I were Mitt," he said. Tancredo added that his voting record is one of the highest rated in the field by Republican interest groups. "I have a record that is consistent. And I will tell you, as opposed to almost every other person on the stage, I think that that is the most glaring example of the difference between us, and certainly between myself and Mr. Romney."
Tancredo then offered to take the debate one step further. "A hundred years ago, you would test someone's veracity by a duel, or some other kind of physical test," Tancredo said. "I'll do this, I challenge Governor Romney to a trap-shooting contest here in New Hampshire. Loser drops out."
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesMANCHESTER, NH --
Clinton would provide for universal paid leave to allow people to care for children or parents, she said in a speech here this morning that's part of her week in talking about issues that matter to women. Her plan would offer $1 billion yearly in grants to states to develop such programs, with the goal of having all states implement a paid family leave plan by 2016.
Clinton would expand the Family Medical Leave Act (FMLA) to cover 13 million additional workers, ensure access to quality child care, and end discrimination against parents because of pregnancy. "For me, this is a very personal issue, because we all have a stake in the next generation," Clinton told the audience seated in gymnasium at a Manchester YWCA. "A generation of healthy children, raised by strong families is in America's best interest."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Unlike Brownback and Giuliani, McCain delivered brief remarks and gave most of his time to the Q&A session. He ventured away from the podium, engaging the crowd and delivering much of his famed "straight talk," answering questions about topics the audience wanted to know.
A young man asked McCain if the United Nations should leave the United States. "I'd like to make you happy by saying, ‘Yes,’" McCain said, but, "The United States should not leave the UN nor should the UN leave the United States. I know you might not share that view, but I have to give you straight talk."
Earlier this morning, Brownback discussed his (and Biden’s) bipartisan federalist plan for Iraq. "I have the greatest respect for Brownback and Biden, but it won't work," McCain said in response to a question about the plan. "Iraqis are Iraqis first," he said, and then cited that when the Iraqis won a soccer match, they raised Iraqi flags, and not Sunni or Shiite flags.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Matthew E. BergerGiuliani went after
Obama Tuesday, criticizing Obama's plans to meet with the leaders of rogue nations without preconditions. Giuliani, speaking to the Republican Jewish Coalition, took issue with Obama's claims that meeting with leaders like
Hugo Chavez is akin to
Ronald Reagan's meetings with the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
"I say this most respectfully, you're not Ronald Reagan," Giuliani said, adding the Reagan called the Soviets the "evil empire" and pointed intermediate range missiles at them before calling for negotiations. "He made sure this country was negotiating from strength.”
Giuliani defended his Republican credentials, a day after they were attacked by Thompson. Giuliani noted that many of the Republican Jews in the audience were the first in their families, and have been met with resistance. "When they want to know, 'Are you a real Republican?'" he said. "I gave my blood for the Republican Party in New York."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Brownback was the first candidate to address the Republican Jewish Coalition's Presidential Forum. He succeeded in capturing the audience's attention, offering up laugh lines throughout his speech. Brownback called for rebuilding family, reviving culture, and sustaining the economy by bringing about energy security and offering an optional alternative flat tax.
He indirectly addressed Iran. "When
Ahmadinejad talks about a world without Israel and the United States, I think we have to take him seriously," Brownback told about 400 people. "We have to use anything possible to stop nuclear weapons." When he was later asked a question about working with
Sarkozy, Brownback said he would work with him "on tough situations, particularly Iran, to pull together a global coalition."
His message of a strong family with both a mom and a dad resonated with the Jewish Republicans. He also made an indirect reference to Hillary Clinton. "We can still debate if it takes a family or a village," Brownback said, "but it takes a lot of responsible adults per child."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, given some of the recent endorsements the Clinton campaign has rolled out, we asked when Obama would pick up his next national endorsement? Well, as if on cue, the campaign today announced that former New York Rep. Major Owens has endorsed the Illinois senator.
“Barack Obama is the candidate who I feel has the leadership, the sound judgment and the will to change this country,” Owens said in a statement. “Obama stands for the concerns of the masses in the black community who have been let down by the broken promises of past leadership. Our leadership on both sides of the aisle has continued to fail us by supporting the war in Iraq and by standing by while poverty, disparities in our healthcare system and lack of affordable education opportunities for young people weaken our communities. It is time to shake loose from the past and Senator Obama’s record shows that he will deliver on his promise to stand up for us in the White House.”
