CNN did dial testing and reported that a slighty majority of their group gave the debate to Clinton but then added a caveat that the group sided with Obama on the Iraq issue. Interesting that they would include that addendum.
More: "Even while Clinton and Obama both admitted to supporting tax increases on hard-working Americans, they failed to fully account for how they would pay for all their proposals. Both spoke to retreating from the War on Terror, but failed to admit their records of defunding the troops and weakening our national defense. Today, Obama was crowned the “most liberal senator,” and his out-of-the-mainstream proposals left no question that he deserved the title. Clinton’s failure to explain her changing positions will do nothing to restore trust with the American people. After watching these two Democrats pander to Hollywood’s liberals, I have never been more confident that a Republican will win in November.”
You'll find the list below, and NBC/NJ has added who they have donated to....
Diane Keaton... Hasn't given to anyone
Clinton claims she's said many times that had she known then what she knows now, she would not have given Bush that authority on Iraq. Sure
she's said this before, but not that often, at least not on the stump
as I've heard in the last several months. In fact, Clinton rarely
mentions this issue on the stump -- almost never, unless asked a direct
question on it, which hasn't happened lately. There's no good reason
for her to bring this up, since it just reminds the anti-war folks
about this vote -- as if they need reminding -- which she refuses to
say was a mistake, as they would like to see her do.
Adds NBC/NJ's Athena Jones (a bit sarcastically): They "heart" each other. Did you see him pull out her chair? Oh what a peachy end to a sweet debate. Like powdered sugar.
At about 9:15, I was toying with the following lead to my post-debate wrap, "Nobody lost this debate, let's make that clear." And then the subject shifted to Iraq, that's when this debate turned Obama's way.
Both candidates started out soft and strong; it appeared another kumbaya debate was about to take place.
And then came Iraq and Clinton once again showed why the issue has been such an Achilles heel. Obama just has an easier time talking about his position. Clinton has to sit there and re-explain why she was for it and why she's not for it now. It's never a good moment for her which is the recent shift to the economy has been so welcomed by Team Clinton.
Overall, this was a strong night for Obama as he proved that he belonged on the same stage as Hillary Clinton. And that's an important accomplishment for Obama. Because, I keep wondering, are undecided voters waiting to see if Obama can prove his mettle for the presidency?
There's a theory that believes just that. And if that theory is true then this debate could prove to be very important to Obama. The audience for this debate was undecided voters and former Edwards supporters and I'm guessing these folks have a fairly low bar for Obama to prove himself to them, compared to the bar they have for Clinton since they are still not on board with the more well-known candidate. Think about the progress Obama's made in the debate department since
early '07. She regularly cleaned his clock at these early debates but
now that advantage seemed to disappear. And Clinton can't afford for that gap to disappear.
It's interesting that neither candidate is feeling the pressure of losing on Feb. 5; If anything, one gets the sense that both candidates realize this campaign could go on a few more months so no sense throwing any desperate attacks tonight. Neither candidate took crazy shots at each other which tells me that neither thinks they are behind.
Obama's strongest moments may have been toward the end when the debate shifted to Iraq. Clinton struggles to defend her actions at the time with her new position now and it just doesn't come across well. If this debate were being scored like a boxing match, the first 60 minutes would have been judged as a draw but the last 30 minutes would have been given to Obama on points, thanks to the Iraq issue.
If Obama does go on to defeat Clinton for the nomination, he will join McCain in winning his party's nod on the back of Iraq, even as the issue landscape has shifted to the economy. Go figure.
Two other extraneous thoughts: Democratic Party elders should be ecstatic about the civil tone the two
kept throughout the debate. Contrast the tone tonight with McCain v.
Romney last night. ... And CNN did the Democratic Party no favors by filling the audience with celebrities. Maybe that's good for CNN to have those folks to cut to during the broadcast but it only feeds into the stereotype that Hollywood and the Democratic Party are inseparable.
The Iraq section of this debate was not good for Clinton.
But for about the last 20 minutes, the issue returned with full force -- over the 2002 Iraq war resolution, the Levin amendment, how to withdraw from Iraq, and the use of force in general.
And now Maxine Waters and her "Out of Iraq" group at this debate.
By my count, there have been six McCain mentions so far. It's strangely similar to the Republican debate last week in Florida, when Clinton's name was invoked many times.
Obama criticizes Hillary for having different positions on the drivers
license issue. One of Bill Clinton's critiques of the press coverage is
that Obama had a similar hang-up one week later after Hillary's
much-publicized answer during the MSNBC debate in Philadelphia. And in
her response tonight, Hillary hinted at Obama's trouble during another
CNN debate in November.
Here's what Obama said in Las
Vegas. Asked if he'd support giving a drivers license to illegals,
Obama said that as a state senator he voted to require illegal aliens
to get them. He then said he is "not proposing that that's what we do"
now. Wolf Blitzer tried to clarify his response at least twice, and
ended the exchange by saying: "This is the kind of question that is
sort of available for a yes or no answer. Either you support it or you
oppose it."
Obama has been much more comfortable bringing up McCain in various answers than Clinton. Is there a reason for that?
If you want proof that these candidates aren't going for the jugular tonight when the spotlight is glaring upon them.. take a look at what Obama said about the Clinton presidency in the speech he just gave yesterday, it's certainly of a different tone than his answer on the Clinton presidency tonight:
"We've reached Americans of all political stripes who are more interested in turning the page than turning up the heat on our opponents. That's how Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress. Not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us, but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change.," he said.
If you choose change, you will have a nominee who isn't just playing on the same electoral map where half the country starts out against us, because you will have a nominee who has already brought in more Independents and Republicans;
'I know it is tempting – after another presidency by a man named George Bush – to simply turn back the clock, and to build a bridge back to the 20th Century. There are those will tell us that our Party should nominate someone who is more practiced in the art of pursuing power; that's it's not yet our turn or our time.
It is about the past versus the future. And when I am the nominee, the Republicans won't be able to make this election about the past because you will have already chosen the future.
It's time for new leadership for the woman I met who can't get Medicaid to cover the needs of her sick child. She can't afford to wait another four years or another fifteen years to get health care because we've put forward a nominee who can't bring Democrats and Republicans together to get things done. I know that the reason Americans don't have health care isn't because no one is forcing them to buy it – it's because they can't afford it.
Hillary's been asked that question before and it is central to Obama's argument -- why should the country vote for a Clinton when there's been either a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot for a generation. She knocked it out of the park with a line she's used before, saying, it took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and it might take another Clinton to clean up after this Bush. It's about as good as she could answer it and it got a standing ovation. Still, Obama can make the case as generational change and turning the page on the politics of old.
adds that that line is one that's not new. I think I've heard line many, many, many, many times, she writes. It's always a winner, always gets laughs and applause, just like it did here.
When Obama had the chance, he talked about crumbling schools in South Carolina, instead of crumbling schools in Los Angeles or Oakland or Oklahoma or Tennessee or Brooklyn or any other Feb. 5 state.
She seemed to even cut Wolf off she was so ready. She delivered the same answer she's given lately on this stuff
Last week, Hillary Clinton's camp had a contest where the winner would get to sit next to Chelsea at tonight's debate. I'm not sure who won, but the camera just showed a new Clinton endorser -- Los Angeles area-Rep. Maxine Waters -- next to the former first daughter
Clinton delivered a, dare I say, more inspirational explanation of why government is not a business in answering the question why are either one of you more qualified than Romney to run the country since they haven't run a business. She talked about standing up for values, etc.
Obama, in turn, decided to turn the screws and stick the knife in Romney, saying Romney hasn't gotten much of a return on his investment during this presidential campaign, adding that he'd be happy to compare his management style to Romney's over the last year of this campaign. Yikes.
This appears to be a very polite but substantive debate so far. The health care discussion should make the wonk wing of the Democratic Party very happy. The most striking thing about this confrontation so far is the improvement in Obama as a debater. There was a time that the gap between Clinton and Obama at these debates was vast. Tonight, there's hardly a difference; Obama's benefitting big time from the no-time limit rule. Clinton, btw, is doing well herself; both are making a very professional and, frankly, nice impressions to what is likely to be one of the largest debate audiences to date.
Obama is full throttle on immigration these days,
voluntarily bringing up the issue at rallies and town halls and
compared to Iowa fully expressing his views on how he thinks the issue
has been demonized and turned into a "political football."
To get how far he's come on this answer... take a look at what he said South Central LA today: "I
think it's very important that we have an intelligent debate about
immigration that is not tinged with our attitudes of what people should
look like who come here. Cause my attitude is everybody should come here.
My father when he came here, he didn't look like you know - he didn't
look like he stepped off the Mayflower, you know. ... And let me remind
everybody that not everybody who came in through Ellis Island had their
papers in order. I'm just telling the truth now. Not everybody was all -- you know -- all had their stuff together, so we just need to remember
that."
Touche...
To get how far he's come on this answer... take a look at what he said South Central LA today:
"I think it's very important that we have an intelligent debate about immigration that is not tinged with our attitudes of what people should look like who come here. Cause my attitude everybody should come here. My father when he come here, he didn't look like you know - he didn't look like he stepped off the Mayflower, you know. ... And let me remind everybody that not everybody who came in through Ellis Island had their papers in order. I'm just telling the truth now. Not everybody was all – you know – all had their stuff together, so we just need to remember that."
The question about immigration costing jobs for minorities was a tricky one. Obama answered well; Clinton answered it better. She seemed to get right to the heart of the question which was about jobs. I'm guessing Obama's answer played well in Arizona and California, while Clinton's answer played well in, say, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
tackle taxes
together, I'm reminded of what many Democrats said waaaaaaay back in
the day in September and October when the race was still somewhat civil and many
spoke longingly of an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket. A far-flung wish that wouldn't make the choice between these candidates so
hard but one that will most probably remain a pipe dream....
The moderators did Obama a big favor by giving him the first immigration question, which he used to bash the GOP over some of its anti-immigration views.
...that Obama just used in response to the tax-and-spend question is a common Hillary line too. NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli also points out that he heard Huckabee say the same line in September.
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds that John McCain is a name that's been slippping off Obama's tongue with ease lately. He was featured in his major speech on electability yesterday, when Obama said he would be the best candidate to present a clear contrast with McCain. He mentioned him again this morning at a town hall in East LA when Obama said that along with McCain he fought for immigration reform. And now he's brought him up again at the debate...
And NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes... So just as Mitt Romney decides to go up on Feb. 5 after all, Barack Obama gives him a little free media with his attack on McCain on the Bush tax cuts.
...but from the other angle. Obama went after McCain (wheels off the Straight Talk Express) for now saying he'd be for the Bush tax cuts when he voted against them the first two go rounds. The Romney campaign has also been hitting McCain on this, but from the angle that the tax cuts were a good thing. Obama argues that never before has the U.S. CUT taxes in a time of war.
BTW, the rules of this debate may favor Obama. He's never been good with time limits and tonight, there are no limits. Meanwhile, the setting may favor Clinton because both candidates are seated and Obama's height advantage isn't as great.
as this debate begins. All sweetness so far. Have to wonder which
candidate thinks showing anger will hurt them the most?
Also
interesting how Clinton compares her healthcare plan to Edwards'
openly...only now that he's out of the race. An attempt to win over his
supporters?
We just had our first Ted Kennedy mention by Obama...
Each candidate talked about Edwards in each of their first two opportunities to talk.
Clinton and Obama's opening statements really highlight politics -- and why Americans find politics contradictory, not straightforward and sometimes illogical.
Obama talked about how Clinton and he were friends, are friends and will be friends after this is over. What do they say? Oh yeah... with friends like those...
With a smile, Clinton spoke nicely of both of them, even said she believes one of them will be the next president of the United States. But then in selling herself, she delivered this familiar subtle dig on Obama: that Americans should vote for someone who's ready on "Day One." So, in implying -- again -- that Obama is not ready on Day One, why then should any American vote for him? If he's not ready on Day One, why would she then believe that we should be looking at the next president between the two of them. Going further then, are none of the Republicans ready on Day One either? Is Hillary Clinton the only one who's ready on Day One?
Ah, politics.
We're more than 20 minutes into the debate and neither campaign has sent a fact-check out to the press (unless my spam filter is working overtime).
So how badly does Obama want John Edwards' endorsement? Obama's now name-dropped him twice in the first 15 minutes.
Asked their policy differences, Clinton mentioned health care, home mortgage policy, and talking with unsavory leaders (she is against meeting with those folks in her first year in office).
So, far everyone is on message.
So far, it appears the two candidates want to be Mr. and Mrs. Nice Guy and Gal.
The TWU represents New York City subway workers, Philadelphia bus drivers, Southwest Airlines flight attendants, baggage handlers and others. The largest union is in New York -- a Feb. 5 state -- and could play an active role there. In other Feb. 5 states, there are members in California and New Jersey.
Obama obliged, sounding positively Edwards-esque in a town hall at Los Angeles Trade Technical College, told the crowd that the system wasn't "designed for us."
"Too many people today feel like the system is not designed for people like us. They feel like the education system isn't designed for people like us, and the job market isn't designed for people like us," identifying himself with the predominantly Latino and African-American crowd and making a clear acknowledgment of racial disparities obtaining mortgages, health care and economic opportunities in the United States.
"[Green technology] will create a great, great future for California and for the United States and the world. Now talking about a great future, this is the very reason why I am endorsing Senator McCain to be the next president of the United States, because I'm interested in a great future and I think that Senator McCain has proven over and over again that he is reaching across the aisle in order to get things done," Schwarzenegger said.
McCain has been criticized for reaching across the aisle a little too far during his long senate career, damaging his conservative credentials and making it hard for him to find success with conservative voters in a virtual national presidential primary. Endorsements from moderate Republicans like Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani don't help him combat this reputation, but at today's press conference he didn't seem concerned.
On the exchange over Iraq last night, "I think he took a big detour on the strait talk express," Romney said.
Does it call into question his credentials to be president? "No I think he's a fine man," Romney said.
On endorsements, Romney basically said, Rudy and Arnold aren't surprising -- they're moderates.
“I could never, never, ever be anything but honored by the presence of these two great American heroes,” said the Arizona senator in reply, quickly adding that Perry, who is much more conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage, will be backing him.
Perry’s endorsement is likely a by-product of Rudy’s dropping out of the race and supporting McCain.
But a bit of context here: National Journal used 99 Senate votes in 2007 as the basis for its rankings, and because he was on the presidential campaign trail, Obama missed a third of those votes. (According to the magazine, Obama voted the liberal way 65 out of 66 votes. Clinton, meanwhile, voted the liberal way in 77 out of her 82 votes).
National Journal's vote ratings became an issue in the 2004 general election, when Republicans used the magazine's ranking of John Kerry as the most liberal senator of 2003 to label the then-Democratic nominee as the "most liberal senator" -- even though that was his rating for just that one year, when (like Obama did) he missed quite a few Senate votes due to being on the presidential campaign trail.
As National Journal's editor wrote back then, "[O]ur magazine -- or, more precisely, our annual congressional vote ratings edition -- has become a Republican talking point in the 2004 presidential campaign. And that's been a fascinating, and disconcerting, experience. Fascinating because we're more used to being cited in congressional hearings than on the Today show. Disconcerting because the shorthand used to describe our ratings of Kerry and Edwards is sometimes misleading -- or just plain wrong."
Indeed, while Obama ranks as the magazine's most liberal senator of 2007, his ranking was 16th in 2005 and 10th in 2006.
Another question that might come up is why the magazine released its voting ratings now -- just days before Super Tuesday. In fact, the magazine says it full congressional ratings won't come out until March. But, according to the editor in a Q&A published in the magazine: "Back in December, we decided that we would publish the ratings of the presidential candidates as soon as they became available, rather than wait until our annual Vote Ratings issue on March 8. We thought it would be irresponsible to keep those scores under wraps during the height of the presidential primary season."
And like with Obama's overall liberal score, rivals and critics could possibly seize on McCain's social rating....
Full disclosure: This reporter worked and wrote for National Journal from 1997 to 2003.
Per Plouffe, the amount will allow the campaign to financially compete through March or April if needed. He also said their donors are part of a grassroots efforts making voter contact in the different states.
The Obama campaign will also be up on air in the primaries and caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 9th (Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington), the Maine caucuses on the 10th, as well as the Mid-Atlantic primary states on Feb. 12th (DC, Maryland, Virginia).
Playing the role of front-runner at a debate for the first time (or at least since the last time these guys met at the Reagan Library), McCain proved to be more well spoken on domestic issues than he was at the last debate. But going forward, assuming he’s the GOP nominee, the Arizona Republican is going to have to get more comfortable talking about domestic issues or he will face much bigger problems in the general. He was better last night on the domestic front, but he's still got a ways to go. By the way, it shouldn't be overlooked at how McCain took every opportunity he could to take a dig at Romney; he seemed almost gleeful about it.
The Obama campaign holds a conference call with reporters at 9:30 am ET to discuss its February 5 strategy.
More: The "candidates know the state, flush with delegates, cannot be easily discarded. But the vastness of California, the high cost of advertising here -- a statewide television buy can run over $2 million for a week -- and the sheer impossibility of traversing its myriad Congressional districts in a day, even with the help of chartered aircraft, have forced the candidates to keep their distance from here. For those who would be president, California is like an inaccessible love interest, stared at from across the country with both longing and frustration, its suitors aggrieved by their fumbling inability to connect."
Remember, McCain won the state’s primary in 2000. This could be an embarrassing moment for Romney should he not win his home state by an impressive margin.
The campaign unveiled plans for a live web video-based town hall meeting on Feb. 4. From the campaign: "We believe it will be the first time in presidential campaign history that voters in the Super Tuesday states will have their voices heard in a single national town hall. The event, called ‘Voices Across America: A National Town Hall’ will be simulcast starting at 9 p.m. EST on hillaryclinton.com. The 22 cities where the campaign will host events are Birmingham, AL; Phoenix, AZ; Little Rock, AR; Los Angeles, CA; San Francisco, CA; Denver, CO; Hartford, CT; Wilmington, DE; Athens, GA; Boise, ID; Chicago, IL; Wichita, KS; Boston, MA; St. Paul, MN; Kansas City, MO; Cherry Hill, NJ; Albuquerque, NM; New York, NY; Grand Forks, ND; Tulsa, OK; Knoxville, TN; Salt Lake City, UT.
“Mr. Giuliani's donors may be as important to Mr. McCain as voters, since the new Republican front-runner has been struggling for cash for much of his campaign. Yesterday, Mr. McCain's campaign released his finance report for the fourth quarter of 2007 showing $4.5 million in debts."
In the '96 cycle, Democrats couldn't prevent a slew of Democrats who either survived '94 (in the House) or didn't think they'd win in '96 (in the Senate) because the poll numbers for the incumbent Democratic president were horribly low. Of course, Clinton came back and ended up winning re-election handily. But the hole the congressional Democratic retirees dug was so deep, the Democrats still lost Senate seats and couldn't win back enough House seats to win back control.
There were a few moments where it appeared McCain and Romney would really started tangling in tonight's CNN/L.A. Times/Politico debate, but it was just that, a precious few moments.
Romney wasn't happy about the criticism McCain leveled at him about timetables in Iraq. He said it was a dirty trick because it came days before Florida. Well, maybe so, but it should also serve as a comfort to nervous Republicans about McCain's ability to play hardball in the general. McCain may seem like a guy who likes to reach across the aisle but he's not afraid to get dirty. McCain will be a very clever general election candidate; it won't all be kumbaya with Clinton or Obama.
Romney's pushback, btw, that if this was an issue, then why didn't he raise it earlier, wasn't a great debate comeback moment. As I've noted before, Romney just doesn't come across well when he's angry.
Overall, Romney seemed simply ticked off. It was as if he realized the end was near and he didn't know how to stop it. He tried to go after McCain, politely mind you, but didn't trip the newly crowned frontrunner up.
The question Romney must be asking himself is what is his ultimate goal now? Should he do everything he can to stop McCain now or should he figure out how to run, but do so with dignity so he can keep his options open in the future, should McCain fail to win the general. As McCain is about to prove, the GOP regularly nominates the runners-up in previous primaries; Reagan, Bush and Dole to name a few. Romney, though, does need to play the conservative critic of McCain for a certain length of time in order to win the loyalty of the conservatives who aren't happy with McCain now. These folks could serve Romney well in '12 or '16.
McCain, in the role of frontrunner at a debate for the first time in nearly a year (well, actually, since the last time these guys met at the Reagan Library), proved to be more well spoken on domestic issues than he was at the last debate.
Going forward, assuming McCain is the GOP nominee, the Arizona Republican is going to have to get more comfortable talking about domestic issues or he will face much bigger problems in the general. He was better tonight on the domestic front, but he's still got a ways to go.
BTW, I love this spin from McCain that if his tax cut plan had gotten through in 2001, instead of Bush's, he would be able to propose new tax cuts now. Now there's some optimism!
The most difficult thing for many of us watching these debates for a living is that we're having a hard time finding new things to say just as the candidates are having a hard time saying anything new.
For instance, how many times have I written some version of the following: Mike Huckabee probably stuck out for his humor and seemingly straight talk. Yet again, Huckabee got to play Mr. Nice Guy and it will probably be enough to siphon off conservative vote from Romney in order to deliver McCain a few more delegates than he should be winning if this were a pure 1-on-1.
But McCain may have won this debate before it ever started because the Giuliani endorsement today and the Schwarzenegger endorsement tomorrow appear to be trumping anything that happened tonight.
I fully admit to now be reacting to the debate via TiVO now (some of us are trying to catch up on home life). Anyway, about half way through the debate, McCain was asked if he'd vote for his original immigration reform proposal and his response was that the bill won't get to the senate floor so he didn't really answer the question. Frankly, it sounded like an early Hillary Clinton spin when she was asked if she regretted her Iraq war vote. She used to answer, if we knew then what we know now, there never would have been a vote. On its face, the McCain and Clinton answers sound like answers, but they also sound like ducks.
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. -- The
press shop found the "send" button on its e-mail program once more. The
counterattacks started flying electronically, just like Romney's
smacks back and forth with McCain have kicked up in the second half of
the debate.
Although the Romney camp is churning debate-opposition as usual, the
media's inboxes are notably emptier now that McCain seems comfortably
seated at the top and Giuliani is out of the race. Huckabee's shop was
never too active on the opposition email front, but it is a different
debate inside the media tent now that the field has narrowed.
looked confident after his win last night. Romney said it angers
him when "someone" accuses him of holding a position he doesn't hold.
McCain then engaged Romney directly, looking confident that this was a
winning issue for him. The back and forth then seemed to get a little
out of hand, but it seems that McCain is not scared to go right after
him now that he his getting more comfortable with his role as
'frontrunner.'
Multiple sources tell NBC
News that Gov. Arnold.
and
offer his endorsement tomorrow in the LA area.
Romney certainly said the words "timetable" and "milestone," but certainly not in the way McCain frames it. McCain seems to willfully mischaracterize Romney's remarks, as Romney also makes clear in the following clip that he would not support a date certain for troop withdrawal.
What Romney did say was that he thought it was appropriate to have private timetables and milestones between Bush and Maliki. McCain's point may be that Romney even used the words at all. And he's more than willing to use it to his advantage in his political campaign, even if the larger point is inaccurate.
"Well, there’s no question that the president and Prime Minister Al Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about, but those shouldn’t be for public pronouncement. You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone. You want to have a series of things accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government.
It was then pointed out to Romney that President Bush has said he would not support anything from Congress with a date certain for withdrawal. He was asked where he stands and if he would do the same. His response:
"Well, of course, can you imagine the setting where during the second world war we said to the Germans, ‘Gee if we haven’t reached the Rhine by this date, well, we’ll go home’ or ‘if we haven’t gotten this accomplished we’ll pull up and leave.’ You don’t publish that to your enemy or they’ll just lie and wait til that time. So, of course, you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don’t do that with the opposition."
One of the more interesting things in the past week is how McCain -- despite his success in Florida -- took some hits in his Straight Talk armor. The most notable example came when he argued that Romney supported a secret plan for withdrawal from Iraq. Most professional truth-squaders and fact-checkers concluded that McCain was distorting Romney's months-old quote.
And at tonight's debate, we've seen McCain sidestep some legitimate questions -- 1) why he said he opposed the Bush tax cuts because they favored the wealthy and 2) if he would have voted today for his McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, which provided for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. "My bill will not be voted on," he said, not directly answering the question.
Of course, any observer of politics will tell you that politicians exaggerate and sidestep tough questions all the time. But, fair or not, someone who has this Straight Talk persona gets held to a different standard -- just like Obama gets held to a different standard when he preaches a different kind of politics, but gets bogged down with a guy like Tony Rezko.
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. -- It's been a quiet
afternoon from the Romney campaign. Very few press releases were sent
from a campaign that tends to flood reporters' inboxes.
True,
the campaign's top communications staffers were stuck on a plane for
hours as they traveled from one coast to another. And while they were
likely prepping the candidate for tonight's debate once they got here
(although they could have done that on the two-leg, six-hour-plus plane
ride), they were wheels down five hours before the debate even began.
And
tonight, during a debate that First Read has already deemed lacking in
passion, the e-mail debate counterattacks have tapered off in contrast
to previous, more contentious debates. The Romney team has let several
fly -- most focused on McCain and the Bush tax cuts. McCain's team has
issued fewer than Romney's so far.
Listen closely to McCain tonight and going forward, and you'll likely notice a clear appeal -- to conservatives. His weakness is with these conservatives. McCain 1.0 knew this when he tried to court the Bush core -- evangelicals and others way back when he was the heir apparent. Now, heir apparent 2.0 finds himself again needing to coalesce that group.
"I believe in getting rates down," Romney said, after subtly hitting
McCain for opposing Bush's tax cuts because they unfairly favored the
wealthy. The "rates" that Romney was talking about appears to be a
defense of Reagan-omics, or cuts for the rich that will eventually
trickle down to the poor. This does little to help his image as a
corporate candidate.
Huckabee is sticking by his road-to-anywhere stimulus plan. (First, it was more roads in Florida to make more jobs. Now, it's California.) As Romney points out, building infrastructure is important, but Huckanomics won't get immediate help to those who most need it.
is reporting that at this juncture, the wealthy Romney won't be deluging us with any more ads like the campaign has done for months and months.
Several
minutes before this story went up, spokesman Kevin Madden was asked if
any decisions had been made about ads yet, and he said "not yet."
Two notes, however, the story says that today was a good day of fundraising for Romney, and the strategy could change. And
don't miss this line: "But they added that in discussions so far, the
former Massachusetts governor had selected the least costly of a
variety of options prepared for his review."
The California governor, who is in the audience at the debate, said there would be "no news today" from him on a possible endorsement of McCain. But he did say that with Rudy's departure "the
dynamics have changed"...it sounds like an endorsement will come
tomorrow. There was also UNCOMFIRMED talk of such an endorsement on the
McCain plane today. The
is reporting that it's going to happen, per NBC's Jesse Rodriguez.
"The two will appear together Thursday in Los Angeles to discuss global
warming and climate change at at a green technology company in Los
Angeles, said Aaron McLear, the governor's press secretary," the Bee writes. "Officials
for McCain and Schwarzenegger would not confirm that the endorsement is
forthcoming. But the governor himself suggested that former New York
Mayor Rudy Giuliani's departure from the race and endorsement of McCain
today had him reconsidering his earlier plan to stay neutral."
Anyone else just experience a little deja vu with Mike Huckabee complaining about not being included in the debate? He sounded very similar to John Edwards during the last Democratic debate, complaining about being included.
Did Romney just make a debate mistake? He just answered McCain's charge rather than deflect and attack back. McCain deflected the conservative charge and instead went right at Romney. College debate coaches would score this exchange to McCain.
Even though both candidates are content dumping the negative oppo at each other, this is lifeless. There is limited to no passion. McCain sits back and waits. Romney feigns outrage. Doesn't this feel like an after-thought, a beauty contest?
Nothing like being seated to keep things fairly cool. Romney definitely hit McCain just now (thanks to the question) but the tone was friendly. And McCain's whacking right back, clearly not taking any chances.
SIMI
VALLEY, Ca. – At a very well attended press conference here just a few
hours before he was scheduled to participate in yet another GOP debate,
Rudy Giuliani announced his departure from the presidential race and
his endorsement of John McCain.
"I'm fully aboard,
100%," Giuliani said, announcing that if McCain would have him, he
plans on campaigning on the senator's behalf in Feb 5th states. "I
don't do things half way. I do them 100%, and when I believe in a man
– like I do John McCain – this will become, to me, as important as my
own election was."
With Cindy McCain looking on
adoringly, Giuliani added more evidence to the 'anti-Mitt Romney' story
line, as GOP establishment becomes more content lining up behind
McCain's candidacy.
"There will be a clear choice this
November and I believe that my life has prepared me for a life of
service and a life of dedication," McCain said. "My strong right arm
and my partner and my friend in this effort will be the former mayor of
New York City, all-American hero, Rudy Giuliani."
Anyone else notice a negative tone in Mitt Romney's first answer? Is he not over Florida? He just seemed exasperated answering that first question about the economy; he even challenged the premise of the question.
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. -- No, Mike
not endorsing anyone else
today. But it was clear from his comments today which of the remaining
Republican rivals he’s least fond of.
Speaking to
reporters before a fundraiser in the O.C., Huckabee laid out a
post-Florida landscape that includes one fewer candidate, and in his
eye, just one true conservative. “A lot of people in the Republican
Party are looking for what they might call the real conservative,” he
said. “If the people in the Republican Party are looking for an
authentic conservative and a consistent one, not a
Johnny-come-lately-gee-I-think
-I’m-gonna-become-a-conservative-this-year, they’re gonna find that I’m their choice.”
Huckabee
said that Giuliani’s withdrawal from the race “is probably not as big a
factor for me,” joking: “What would be a bigger factor is if Romney and
McCain dropped out today.” Asked if he’d split conservative votes with
Romney, the former Arkansas governor was more explicit in his critique
of the former Massachusetts governor. “Romney’s record is not a
conservative record,” he said. “I feel like [if] people are gonna start
now deciding that if they want a person who’s rhetoric and record are
truly conservative, they only have one place to go. That would be me.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd Cheers to CNN for starting this debate almost on time. No doubt that the GOP candidates' demand for a 90 min. debate instead of 2 hours cut into the intro time.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton did what he rarely does: not make news.
He didn't mention John Edwards' departure from the presidential campaign, and didn't say anything of note about last week's South Carolina results.
He did mention McCain in passing, as he often does, when he referencing his wife's bipartisan projects, saying that she respects McCain but disagrees with him on issues like "100 more years in Iraq."
Bill Clinton was slightly stronger than normal on electability, trying to debunk the perception that she is a polarizing figure. "The big rap on her is Republicans don't like her. She's so polarizing, nobody'll ever vote for her. Here's what happened: She goes to the Senate, and more than any other person running for president has a stunning record of passing legislation with Republicans. "
Chelsea accompanied her father to the largely student-attended rally here (somewhere upwards of 4,500 in attendance.) She will appear with him later tonight in Denver.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton addressed Edwards' withdrawal from the presidential field.
"I want to start by expressing my appreciation and admiration to Sen. Edwards, to Elizabeth and to their family for their years of public service and advocacy on behalf of those who needed a champion and particularly during this campaign," she said. "He has made poverty a centerpiece of his candidacy, and it needs to be on the top of the list of American priorities. And I'm very pleased that he in his announcement just a few minutes ago talked about how we're all as Democrats going to work to make sure that poverty remains on the agenda, to do everything we can during this campaign and then once we take back the White House, to address the needs of people who are invisible as I've been saying through my campaign."
"I want to wish John and Elizabeth well and thank him for running a great campaign that was really important to millions and millions of Americans."
Later in the press conference, Clinton wouldn't comment on potential race between her and McCain . And asked about whether she's had a conversation with Bill Clinton about being more subdued on the campaign trail, Clinton replied -- as she usually says -- that she's proud of him promoting her candidacy. But that this is about her campaign and about her candidacy.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan DENVER, CO -- There were two clear targets in Obama's speech at the University of Denver on Wednesday morning -- one named (McCain ), the other alluded to (Clinton ).
In a speech the day after McCain won the Florida Republican primary, becoming that party's new presidential front-runner, Obama argued that the Democrats can't start the general election with half the electoral map against them -- and that they can't take on McCain when their nominee has the same positions as he does on foreign policy issues.
"It's time for new leadership that understands that the way to win a debate with John McCain is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq; who agreed with him in voting give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran…" Obama said, also pointing to Clinton's positions on torture and diplomacy.
The fact that there were no longer two potential obstacles to the Republican nomination but one was clear when Obama began his speech with words of praise for Edwards , who dropped his bid for the presidency early this morning.
"So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives (John and Elizabeth Edwards ) endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America," Obama said. He named every candidate in the race, including Senator Hillary Clinton, and called them "an all-star cast," but the praise didn't overshadow the thrust of Obama's argument that he -- and not Clinton -- is the best choice for the Democratic party.
CONTINUED >>
Our friends over at Hotline's On Call have Clinton's remarks on Edwards' exit.
"Well, Sen. Edwards is a friend of mine, he was a colleague in the Senate, and I have the highest regard for him, and I’m really admiring of what he has done to make sure that poverty was on the agenda here in America," she said in an interview with WBRC. "He encouraged all of us in his passion and advocacy, and I hope he will continue that work because it is really important that we stay focused on what we’re going to do to help people."
"You know, I’m out here talking about making the economy work for everybody. And it needs to work for the middle class, working people, it needs to give a life line to poor people like we did in the 1990s, so in any way that I can be part of this effort to try to target poverty I am going to be."
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama is the first out of the gate to issue a statement on Edwards' exit. "John Edwards has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn't popular to do or covered in the news. At a time when our politics is too focused on who's up and who's down, he made a nation focus again on who matters - the New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington."
Obama added, "John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply that we can change this - that two Americans can become one, and that our country can rally around this common purpose. So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd Edwards is dropping out of the race is surprising -- in that he gave every indication he would compete in the February 5 states, and even beyond. He was a man on a mission.
But that mission ends today. While many will attribute Edwards departure to all the attention on Clinton and Obama -- and there has been a lot of attention on those two! -- the fact is that Edwards based his entire candidacy on the first four contests, especially Iowa. And after he finished second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, he no longer had a realistic path to winning the nomination.
Winning Iowa would have changed all that. In fact, it's worth noting that the two Johns -- Edwards and McCain -- had about the same amount of media attention a month before Iowa. The difference was that McCain was able to win in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which set the stage for last night's Florida victory. (Of course, McCain also benefited by not having the equivalents of a Clinton or an Obama in the GOP field -- say a Jeb Bush or perhaps a Mark Sanford .)
All that said, Edwards and his team ran a fine campaign. They easily won the ideas primary (on health care, poverty). Edwards was an excellent debater. And the candidate displayed a deep passion that we don't see from many politicians nowadays.
But perhaps the biggest hurdle Edwards faced -- and didn't clear -- was that Democratic voters aren't too kind to repeat candidates. Look at what happened to Gephardt four years ago. Or even Biden this year. In fact, it could be an obstacle if Obama doesn't end up the Dem nominee and decides to run four or eight years from now. (Gore was a repeat candidate who won the nomination in '00, but he was the vice president.)
Compare that with a Republican Party that likes to reward repeat candidates: Reagan in '80, Dole in '96, and maybe McCain in '08.
It isn't easy being a Democrat making another presidential bid.
So where does Edwards' support go? In South Carolina, Edwards won white men. Could this become the new swing voting group? Obama does well with white men in general election match-ups, but has seen his support drop among these folks in the primary. Now, if Obama has any shot at beating Clinton, he's going to have to win this key voting bloc. It's rare white guys are considered a swing vote, but in a Clinton vs. Obama race, it appears they will. Obama needs them more than Clinton.
As for an endorsement, some Edwards folks claim anything is possible. But in chats with numerous Edwards partisans, it's pretty clear they'd be shocked if he threw his support to Clinton. So for now, the options appear to be sit or support Obama.
From NBC's John Yang and NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
The morning after it was reported that Giuliani was dropping out was particularly chaotic for the campaign. The traveling press corps was asked to be in the lobby at 7:30 am to be bused to the airport for a 9:00 am flight to Los Angeles, including a refueling stop in Texas.
But the only buses that showed up were for a meeting of Wendy's franchisees.
The mayor departed the hotel -- in a pick-up truck.
Still no buses. And no campaign aides to tell us exactly where we were going and what we'd do when we got there.
Calls to officials revealed that more and more of them were heading home to New York instead of accompanying the mayor.
And still no buses.
A campaign aide said there was a problem and that we should get ourselves to the airport.
A fleet of cabs took the assembled reporters to the plane in time to see campaign officials campaign manager Mike DuHaime, campaign advisor Tony Carbonetti, former deputy mayors Randy Mastro and Joe Lhota and the ubiquitous celebrity endorser Jon Voight board the plane. Giuliani boarded carrying his own suit bag. His wife, Judith, was not with him.
And on the tarmac: The buses that were to carry the press to the plane.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro We now have a GOP front-runner : Just a month ago, McCain was in fourth place nationally in our NBC/WSJ poll (at 14%), and he was even fourth in Florida (at 13%), according to a late December Quinnipiac University survey. But after winning Florida last night -- a race that was open only to Republicans (so no independents and crossover Dems) -- McCain has now become the undisputed GOP front-runner heading into next week’s Tsunami Tuesday. How did he do it? Well, he did well among his usual coalition of those over 65, veterans, folks who don’t consider themselves very conservative, and people who don’t attend weekly church services. But the endorsement from Cuba-born Sen. Mel Martinez (R) also seems to have helped: Per the exit polls, McCain won more than 50% of the Hispanic and Cuban vote. McCain lost white voters, but demolished Romney among Hispanics. And then there was Amendment 1, the ballot measure that would cut property taxes in the state. (While Clinton and the Florida Democratic Party are celebrating the large number of voters last night, the ballot measure played a HUGE role in driving turnout.) As one GOP source tells us, Amendment 1 backers did two million calls the three days of the election, many of them to low-propensity Republicans (i.e., likely McCain voters). As the source says, that “helped McCain by turning out less hard-core conservatives.”
*** McCain’s long road back : There was a reason many didn't want to completely write off McCain last summer when he stared defeat in its face. The lesson of John Kerry was just too fresh in our minds. Still, count us as just as surprised by McCain's regained front-runner status. Now the guy has to do something he's never done before: hang on to that front-runner tag. He’s at his best when he's running from behind, which may make him uniquely suited to be the GOP nominee since the party is clearly facing an uphill battle in 2008. In the spring of ‘07, McCain tried too hard to become the inevitable nominee. Now he can rightfully go about this strategy. Don't be surprised if the next days are filled with major Republican rank-and-file members falling in line behind McCain. The train may very well finally be leaving the station. It took eight long years, but he's on the cusp of vindication.
*** One on one? Or two on one? Romney has seven days to coalesce the anti-McCain forces. It's probably not enough time, but Romney needs to think about the future. He may very well decide that the smart play is to follow the Reagan '76 model and simply hang around. McCain still hasn't proved he can win a two-way, and Romney's camp probably has the stats to back up the idea that he can beat McCain head-to-head if the opportunity ever presented itself. The problem is, it may not with Huckabee looking to stick around for a while. McCain could wind up with some 600-plus delegates next week without crossing 50% in many places.
*** Rudy bows out : More good news for McCain will come today when Giuliani -- from the Reagan Library in California, before tonight’s GOP debate there -- officially drops out of the GOP race and endorses the Arizona senator. Not only does he pick up an endorsement from America’s Mayor, but he no longer has to compete with a man who was attracting many of the same voters. (The same can’t be said of Romney, who will continue to compete with Huckabee for GOP conservatives.) As for Giuliani’s departure from the race… While many pundits will say, "See, we told you a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Republican couldn't get the nomination," that wasn't the reason Giuliani didn't make it. He didn't make it because he didn't run very hard. He seemed to want the nomination handed to him; there was a fire missing. This wasn't the Giuliani of '89 or '93 that New York City voters came to both love and loathe.
*** Hillary Rodman Knievel : Did Clinton proclaiming “victory” last night in Florida -- which the Washington Post’s Milbank said was a “political stunt worthy of the late Evel Knievel” -- actually work? It’s unclear. Most of the papers this morning either buried the Dem results or prefaced them with warnings that the contest didn’t really award delegates. That said, it gave her plenty of face time on the cable networks and essentially ended the two-day Ted Kennedy story. According to the exit polls, Clinton won among almost all groups, which wasn’t much of a surprise given that polls for months had shown her holding a large lead in the uncontested race. But this is an interesting finding: Clinton won big among those who voted absentee or made up their minds a long time ago. But Obama won among those who made up their mind in the last month and the last week. *** UPDATE ***
*** Keep an eye on Edwards : Meanwhile, Edwards gives a speech at 1:00 pm ET from New Orleans -- the place he began his presidential campaign. Could this be a possible bookend? There’s a lot of chatter that Edwards could use this speech to officially bow out of the race, but we’ve been unable to confirm it. Is he getting out? Or is a move to grab some attention from the Clinton-Obama race? Stay tuned… *** UPDATE *** NBC News has learned that Edwards will indeed drop out today...more on that later.
*** On the trail : Elsewhere today, Clinton is in Arkansas and Atlanta; Huckabee makes four stops in California; McCain is in Florida and California; Obama’s in Denver and Phoenix; Bill Clinton campaigns in Illinois, Denver, and Oklahoma; and Chelsea Clinton speaks at colleges in Utah.
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 6 days
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With 99% of the precincts reporting, McCain won 36%-31% over Romney. Giuliani finished a distant third with 15% and Huckabee was fourth at 13%.
The New York Times calls McCain the "frontrunner" in its lead. "The results were a decisive turning point in the Republican race, effectively winnowing the field to Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney, two candidates with very different backgrounds who have little affection for one another but share a similar challenge in winning over elements of the party suspicious of their ideological credentials."
More: "Romney made clear that he would go all-out in the coming week, as the presidential race builds toward its biggest day so far, a set of more than 20 contests across the country on Tuesday. He and Mr. McCain fought an increasingly bitter battle in Florida, and they now seem likely to take their messages to the national stage, with Mr. Romney trying to portray Mr. McCain as out of step with his party on critical issues and ill-equipped to deal with the economic downturn and with Mr. McCain suggesting that Mr. Romney’s principles yield too easily to the political winds and that he cannot be trusted on national security."
McCain’s win “puts him in the best position of any candidate to take control of his party's presidential campaign next week, when states containing half the country's population go to the polls,” the Boston Globe writes.
CONTINUED >>
On the Dem side last night , Clinton got 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%.
The Washington Post’s Milbank writes, “Yes, Clinton, as expected, beat Barack Obama by a wide margin in the Florida primary. But all the Democratic candidates had agreed months ago to boycott the contest after the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its delegates to punish the state for moving up its primary date. The result was a primary without purpose, a show about nothing. But in a political stunt worthy of the late Evel Knievel, the Clinton campaign decided to put on an ersatz victory party that, it hoped, would erase memories of Obama's actual victory Saturday night in South Carolina's Democratic primary. ‘Thank you, Florida Democrats!’ Clinton shouted to the cheering throng. ‘I am thrilled to have this vote of confidence.’”
The New York Times : “Mrs. Clinton’s victory was expected and may have largely reflected her prominence on the national political scene for almost two decades. She did well among those who cast their votes early; among late deciders, Mr. Obama matched her almost one for one, according to exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.”
The New York Daily News’ lead on the Dem Florida contest: “Hillary Clinton flew to Florida Tuesday night to cheer a victory here that doesn't count -- at least not yet.”
CLINTON : The New York Daily News says Bill Clinton was “on best behavior” while campaigning in New Jersey.
“Noncandidate Bill Clinton got more mentions in presidential campaign coverage last week than any of the Republicans who actually have their names on ballots, according to a study of media stories released yesterday.” Maureen Dowd takes Obama's side in "the snub" controversy. "Knowing that it helped her when Obama seemed to be surly with her during the New Hampshire debate, telling her without looking up from his notes that she was ‘likable enough’ — another instance of Obama not being able to hide his bruised feelings — Hillary went on ABC News last night to insinuate that he was rude Monday. ‘Well, I reached my hand out in friendship and unity and my hand is still reaching out,’ she said, lapsing back into the dissed-woman mode. ‘And I look forward to shaking his hand sometime soon.’”
“Something’s being stretched here, but it’s not her hand. She wasn’t reaching out to him at all."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI : The New York Daily News calls Giuliani’s fall a “tragic collapse.”
"As Mr. Giuliani ponders his political mortality , many advisers and political observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign. He allowed a tight coterie of New York aides, none with national political experience, to run much of his campaign."
“After nearly a full year of leading in the polls and dodging early fumbles, his image of electability sank as his poll numbers tumbled. He faced mountains of negative stories about disgraced ally Bernie Kerik, and spent two weeks punching at shadows over reports alleging that, while mayor, he deliberately hid security expenses related to his then-mistress.” ROMNEY : Time's Scherer looks at what Romney can do next. "This final Romney gambit is likely to determine more than just the fate of one, well-heeled candidate. It could set the course for the Republican Party. In the old days, those who supported tax cuts for the wealthy worked closely with those who wanted to amend the constitution to ban gay marriage. Those who wanted to grow the size of the military made common cause with those who saw global warming as an environmentalist scare-tactic meant to interfere with free markets. Those who wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade also wanted to overturn campaign finance reform.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney had heard any of the speculation about Giuliani dropping out of the race or endorsing McCain , he called the former New York City mayor tonight to “congratulate him on running an honorable race,” according to Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom. On stage, the candidate said that he also called the Arizona senator to congratulate him on his win here.
But in a speech that seemed close to conciliatory, Romney even joked near the end that he wouldn’t have any inheritance left to give all of his extended family members in the crowd, as he's spent such a large amount on his own campaign. He rattled off some of his standard stump lines to a crowd that ranged from courageously supportive to teary and downtrodden.
As for Florida, several representatives from the campaign said that they believe that the endorsements of Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist could have helped to push McCain over the edge here. But they insisted that the race was very close (the spread was five points) and that there were institutional factors -- like name recognition -- that proved helpful to McCain.
Fehrnstrom continued to push that this is now a two-person race -- Romney versus McCain. And he said the campaign will likely seek support in California, Colorado, New York, Illinois, Georgia and Missouri -- states that “are all friendly territory for us.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Hillary Clinton landed about half an hour after the polls closed in the delegate-free zone of Florida tonight, and in a six-minute speech declared her win here a "tremendous victory."
With 73% of the precincts reporting, Clinton leads Obama 50%-33%, with Edwards in third with 15%.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger NBC News/National Journal has confirmed that Rudy Giuliani will endorse John McCain tomorrow in California.
From NBC's Matthew Berger
Q: Will you be in the debate tomorrow night?
Giuliani: We're going to California
Q: But will you be in the debate tomorrow night?
Giuliani: We're going to California
From NBC's Chris Donvan Rudy Giuliani's book "Leadership" online, and found a couple of lines from it that might be interesting if he ends up dropping out. For example, did "bad breaks" have a part in his defeats? Will he be like the 1976 Yankees he talked of, and come back in a future presidential campaign?
1. “Just as an election victory needs a dozen little things to go right, a defeat can be blamed on any number of separate bad breaks.” ("Leadership," page 55)
2. “There are important skills to be learned from picking yourself up after something goes wrong, to keep moving ahead without letting it throw you off course. When I lost my first race for mayor, I felt that it was like losing the World Series. I came within three percentage points, and to be that close but still lose was both exhilarating and devastating.” ("Leadership," page 107)
Here are the two quotes in context:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney ) and McCain .
The campaign will emphasize a southern strategy, because voters there will realize Huckabee is not viable, and they will not go for McCain
NBC News declares
John McCain as the projected winner in Florida's GOP primary.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger and MSNBC's Brooke Brower Time.com is reporting that Giuliani is expected to withdraw from the GOP race and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow.
A senior Giuliani campaign aide said he wouldn't comment on the Time.com report.
Giuliani will come on stage in Orlando, FL at top of the 9:00 pm ET hour.
Florida's Republican primary is too close to call.
In the contest, McCain and Romney are locked in a tight race -- with Giuliani and Huckabee running far behind. Fifty-seven delegates are at stake, and it's winner-take-all.
In the Democratic primary, no delegates are allocated based upon the results in Florida and the candidates pledged not to campaign there. That said, Clinton will finish with more votes than any other candidate today. Obama will finish second and Edwards third.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Clinton’s campaign in delegate-rich California touted what it said was its strong standing one week out. And it's confident that nothing -- not even controversy over Bill Clinton’s role or the momentum from Obama's big win in South Carolina -- can knock them down.Fabian Nunez , speaker of the California Assembly, said more votes will be cast by mail in California than were cast in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina combined. “In some cases, enough votes are gonna be banked [before Feb. 5] to win the contest,” Nunez said.
The most recent figures obtained from the California Association of County Election Officials (CACEO) show that 1,132,877 mail-in ballots have been returned, out of the more than 5 million that were requested. But CACEO president Steven Weir estimates that the actual number of returned ballots is already over 2 million. Weir also predicts that 47% of all votes will be cast by mail.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo So far we know three things about the Republican primary in the Sunshine State: it's a very conservative electorate, the economy is the No. 1 issue and voters are pessimistic about it.
In a state that has been battered by the housing crisis and the high costs of oil and gas, these numbers should come as no surprise: Economy 47%, Terrorism 19%, Illegal Immigration 17%, and the War in Iraq 13%.
Florida Republicans give the national economy very low marks. Sixty-three percent said the economy is in the tank. That's comparable to Michigan, which is suffering through the worst unemployment in the nation.
And despite these negative feelings about the economy, a majority of this Republican electorate still has positive feelings about the Bush administration: 20% are enthusiastic and 46% are satisfied. The president gets even higher marks in Florida than he did in South Carolina. And a reminder, this is important because it is a closed primary. Only registered Republicans can participate. We're going to see many more races like this on Super Tuesday.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Bill Clinton campaigned in Ohio tonight with a message refocused on his wife's decision-making experience. Although the back-and-forth between Hillary Clinton and her main rival did not creep into the former president's remarks, the issue of race came up before Clinton even took the stage. He was introduced by Clinton endorser and popular local black representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones , who told a cheering and racially diverse crowd that Martin Luther King would have been proud of Clinton's candidacy.
"I am supporting Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, and I owe Martin Luther King Jr. too," said Tubbs Jones, a African-American congresswoman popular in her Cleveland-area district here. "Martin Luther King said 'Judge, you, by the content of your character, and not by the color of your skin.' And if he was here, and if he was here, he would say 'I'm happy that there's a woman running for president too.'"
She went on to take a swipe at Obama's focus on hope as the centerpiece of his candidacy. "You need to know hope did not begin in 2008," she said. "Hope began in 2002 when the man from Hope, Arkansas, ran for president and made a difference in the United States of America." (She meant 1992, when Clinton first began his presidential bid. The slip, perhaps, provides some evidence of the fieriness of her comments.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
"There's nothing scheduled right now," Obama said.
But the two have been talking.
"I've been in contact with her consistently and she's open to helping out in any way she can," he added.
In Iowa, New Hampshire and especially in the state of South Carolina, Oprah's appearances with Obama stole the media spotlight for weekend as Obama, his wife, and Winfrey barnstormed the three states.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller TULSA, Okla. -- Following the president's final State of the Union address last night, John Edwards told a crowd in Tulsa this morning that he doesn't know "how he can say these things with a straight face anymore."
"Here's what I heard," he said. "What I heard was, more tax cuts for big business, more illegal spying on the American people, and if we - everything's going great in Iraq. If we just stay on course and keep doing the same thing for however many years, everything's gonna be just fine. Boy, it sounded like Groundhog's Day to me."
Edwards stopped at yet another union hall, this one belonging to the Transport Workers Union. The campaign estimated that 450 people crammed into the space. An introducer recalled meeting the former North Carolina senator when he stopped in Tulsa during the 2004 campaign.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Charlie Crist this morning, McCain said he was "feeling good" about his chances in Florida's winner-take-all primary.
"Endorsements matter," said McCain, who this week received the endorsement of two Florida bigwigs, Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez . "It would have been very easy for Gov. Crist to just say look, I'm not going to get into a contested primary. I'm very grateful and very appreciative [that he did]."
But despite his rosy outlook, McCain still found time to toss one more barb at Mitt Romney before polls close tonight at 7pm. Asked why the GOP campaign in FL has been so negative, McCain said his party's race "looks like a Sunday school picnic compared to what the Democrats have been doing." And when asked about the specific tiff between Romney and himself, he seemed more than willing to sit down for another picnic snack.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger DELRAY BEACH, Fla. -- Giuliani was mobbed by a couple dozen senior citizens as he disembarked from his campaign bus to go inside Lox Around the Clock bagel shop Tuesday. The New York accents were thick and it was a bit of a homecoming for Giuliani, who originally had rested his Floridian hopes on transplanted Northeasterners, and who he courted heavily on primary day.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney’s last rally with supporters in the Sunshine State before seeing tonight’s primary results was well-placed and well-timed at the Tampa Convention Center for one of the major notes he wants to get across.
“Right down the hall today, in this very building, there are 700 people assembled,” Romney threw into his speech. “These are people who stood in line -- most of them for years and years -- and worked hard to come to this country legally. Those people are Sworn in as citizens of the United States of America, and we salute them. And we say to the millions of people who have come to this country illegally, ‘Stand back and get in line!” Romney said to wild applause.
In addition to the key on-message lines the moment provided during his remarks, it also gave him some helpful photo-ops after the event with some of the new citizens milling around the convention center.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan and Domenico Montanaro On Obama’s campaign plane, he answered questions about the “snub” moment from the State of the Union and Florida’s relevance, or lack there of, in this nominating process.
He said he was “surprised” about the photo and how his apparent turning away from Clinton was being characterized.
“I was turning away because Claire [McCaskill] asked me a question, as Senator Kennedy was reaching for her [Clinton],” Obama said. “And senator Clinton and I have had very cordial relations on the floor and off the floor; I waved at her as we were coming into the Senate chamber before we walked over. I think there's a lot more tea leaf reading going on here than I think people are suggesting.”
"It was not a snub," she emphatically declared. "It was one of those accidents. Frankly everyone's spoiling for a fight, which is the politics of old, you know this thing isn't the politics of old. Its about new. It's unfortunate that everyone is so anxious for there to be problem on a personal level and I gotta tell yah, its just not there."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters earlier today, arguing that tonight's Florida Democratic Party matters.
Communications director Howard Wolfson added, "We think that one million coming out to vote matters."
Yet much of the rest of the conference call consisted of reporters questioning the timing and motives of the Clinton campaign's argument that today's contest counts. Some examples:
Just minutes later, the Obama campaign held a conference call with reporters, with Sen. John Kerry doing the talking. "My understanding is the Clinton campaign had a call suggesting that Florida ought to be covered by all you folks in a serious fashion." Explaining that he himself knows the nominating process pretty well -- having run and won his party's presidential nomination four years ago -- Kerry said, "The bottom line is Florida not offer any delegates. It should not become a spin race. It should not become a fabricated race."
And Kerry said to attach meaning to Florida -- "suggesting something that isn't" -- is yet another example of the kind of politics that Obama wants to end.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani tried phone banking Tuesday, and got at least one supporter on the line.
“Lisa? This is Rudy Giuliani,” he said into a cell phone at his campaign’s Broward County headquarters. “It is. I’m calling from headquarters. Javier asked me to call.”
Giuliani had a phone banking script in his hands, but didn’t read from it. “I would like to see if you would go out and vote for me. You will?” he asked, and he held up the phone so the caller could hear the applause. “I didn’t even use the script and it worked. Thank you very much.”
He earlier thanked the men and women who were using their cell phones to contact voters in both English and Spanish, and signed a wall of support for the former New York City mayor.
From NBC's Christina Jamison The endorsement
Hillary Clinton is picking up today is from California Rep.
Maxine Waters (D).
From NBC's Lisa Myers and Jim Popkin NBC News' Investigative Unit took a look at that land deal between Obama and Rezko and why that piece of property now won't sell.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Kathleen Sebelius , who gave the Democratic response at last night's State of the Union, will endorse Obama today in Kansas.
From NBC's Kerry Sanders
At least six of those EVID machines at different polling locations did not work this morning. Broward County election officials say they have now corrected the problem, and everyone who wanted to vote has voted, albeit they had to wait a little longer than expected.
Broward County is now infamous for the recounts and hanging chads of the 2000 presidential race.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani worked to get out the vote in the Miami suburbs Tuesday, and continued to dodge questions about future plans if he does not win the Florida primary.
“We’re gonna win today,” Giuliani said while sitting at the counter of the Wolfie Cohen's Rascal House diner, munching on cereal and coffee with Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum . “That’s our answer. We’re gonna win today.”
Giuliani started the day with a series of television interviews, and reiterated that he intends to travel to California either tonight or tomorrow and participate in the CNN debate on Wednesday.
But while campaign aides continue to defend their strategy to largely bypass the early primary states, Giuliani seemed to acknowledge the pitfalls of the strategy. He told interviewers that other candidates were able to garner momentum from early wins and that watching other candidates win “hurt” his fund-raising efforts.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro The Florida showdown: The Romney-McCain race in Florida has become almost as entertaining as a Miami-FSU football game (circa '97-'02, of course) -- and about as heated, too. Yesterday, McCain was calling Romney a flip-flopper (ouch), while Romney was returning the fire with McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, and McCain-Lieberman (yikes). And the reason why, as we've mentioned before, is just how much is at stake. A McCain win makes him the undisputed front-runner, with a clear path to the GOP nomination. A Romney win, meanwhile, gives him tons of momentum heading into February 5, although McCain should still do well in several of the delegate-rich states like New York and California. But the bigger effect of a Mitt victory on McCain would be a financial one -- it would make it more difficult for him to raise the cash he needs to stay competitive beyond February 5. Indeed, Romney-McCain has the feel of being one of the closest primaries of this early season … and we all know what happens when Florida has tight contests, right? It’s a winner-take-all, and 57 delegates are at stake. Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET in most parts of the state; in the panhandle that’s in Central Time, it’s 8:00 am ET and 8:00 pm ET. So there will be no call or even a characterization of the race until 8:00 pm ET.
*** Pluses and minuses: Romney and McCain both have reasons to believe they can win or excuses if they lose. Romney's got the fact this primary is open only to registered Republicans, a group McCain has struggled with in previous primaries. Meanwhile, McCain has veterans and voters over 65 to lean on. But Huckabee may be taking Romney vote, and Rudy may be taking McCain vote. The question is: Which of those two hurt the front-runners more? By the way, don't let folks pass around the myth that the exit polls do not account for the early vote -- that's not true. The consortium thoroughly polls early voters and includes those results in the first wave and adjusts the weighting of that early vote survey as same-day turnout is taken into account.
*** Rudy’s last stand: The GOP candidate who’s trailing a distant third in the polls behind McCain and Romney is the person who staked everything on Florida: Rudy Giuliani. He sure seems to be acting like a guy trying to go out with grace. The autographed baseballs for the traveling press were a nice touch but also a HUGE hint. And as NBC’s John Yang, who is following Giuliani, put it yesterday: There is a real feeling of valedictory on this trip, like a final senior class trip or the bus ride home from summer camp. Reporters posing for pictures with aides, the baseballs on each seat, and so on. The question, short term, is what does Rudy do tomorrow? Dropping out seems likely but does he endorse? Politico's Jonathan Martin has a theory that Giuliani will quickly endorse McCain (i.e., pre-February 5) so that Rudy can bask in the glow a bit in McCain's likely Tsunami Tuesday victories in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Not a bad theory, no?
*** The Florida sideshow: While everything is on the line in Florida's GOP primary, that's certainly not the case on the Dem side, given that the DNC stripped Florida of all of its delegates for moving up its primary before February. In turn, it has become nothing more than a beauty contest. But that hasn't stopped the Clinton campaign -- and some pundits as well -- from trying to make it count, even though the Democratic candidates all pledged not to campaign in the state. In fact, Clinton holds a victory rally of sorts tonight in Davie, FL. But the Obama folks seem to have a point: If the nomination is about winning the most delegates, as the Clinton campaign says, then Florida shouldn't count, right? To put it another way, as we've said before, if you’re heading to the playoffs, you can't suddenly say that some exhibition game now matters. The other issue for Clinton is that she's running against herself, and anything short of a big win could backfire. All this said, what will the average viewer tonight take away? A Clinton win in the most famous swing state in the country? Will the average viewer even care that the DNC penalized the state on the delegate front and that no one campaigned there? This is what the Clinton campaign is counting on.
*** SOTU thoughts: Watching last night’s State of the Union, anyone else get the sense that President Bush was just glad to be done? He had the smirk going for about half the speech, and then came the Iraq portion when the smirk did go away and he made what seemed like a very familiar argument about Iraq and foreign policy. The problem for Bush, of course, is just that: The argument is familiar, and it's unclear whether he has anyone listening to him anymore. As for how the presidentials handled the SOTU, a few things: 1) Mitt Romney seemed hesitant to pin the "broken Washington" tag on Bush when given the chance; 2) Obama's apparent snub of Clinton in the Senate chamber wasn't missed by many (just how bitter is this race?); 3) speaking of Obama, we're guessing the video response he provided a good platform for his supporters to watch and then, well, contribute (by the way, will video SOTU responses be the norm in a few years?); 4) did anyone notice how short McCain's press release response was? Did he really only send out a release praising Bush's earmark comments and that's it? 5) Why did Clinton cancel the rest of her TV interviews last night after her chat with NBC's Brian Williams? Unclear, but she’ll be doing the full cable radio today. Finally, isn't it amazing that Obama-Kennedy stepped on the State of the Union? That's something… says a lot about the presidential race and the sitting president.
*** Buckeye Bill: How much should we read into the decision to send Bill Clinton to Ohio today? Ohio is not a February 5 primary state, but a March 4 one. If February 5 doesn't decide anything (and neither campaign seems to think it will), then the next BIG day is March 4 -- especially for the Clinton campaign, since the primaries and caucuses taking place between Tsunami Tuesday and March 4 are all in states that may favor Obama. Anyway, it's striking to see Bill's schedule already include Ohio, though we're guessing it's a two-fer stop (fundraising in private and a public even tacked on to start prepping post-Feb. 5). And by the way, the Clinton camp is prepping a major endorsement, likely Feb. 5-related; there aren't many big February 5 gets left, so think major members of Congress and governors.
*** On the trail: On the GOP side, Giuliani gives it a final push in Miami, Pompano Beach, Delray Beach, and Orlando; Huckabee holds two events in Tampa and then it’s off to three stops in the February 5 state of Missouri; McCain makes four stops in Florida, including Miami, St. Petersburg, and a fundraiser; and Romney makes two stops -- in Tampa and St. Petersburg. On the Dem side, as mentioned earlier, Clinton holds a rally in Davie, FL; Edwards is in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Minnesota; Obama campaigns in Kansas and Missouri; and Bill Clinton, in addition to his event in Ohio, stumps for his wife in New Jersey.
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The New York Times on the final day of campaigning yesterday: "Romney … began attacking at dawn, accusing Mr. McCain of allying himself with liberal Democrats in the Senate and betraying conservative principles on legislation involving immigration, the environment and campaign finance. ‘If you want that kind of a liberal Democratic course as president, then you can vote for him,’ Mr. Romney said at a Texaco gas station in West Palm Beach at 6:30 a.m. ‘But those three pieces of legislation, those aren’t conservative. Those aren’t Republican.’”
“Mr. McCain volleyed back by describing Mr. Romney as a serial flip-flopper who had taken multiple positions on a variety of issues, including gay rights, global warming and immigration. ‘People, just look at his record as governor,’ Mr. McCain said at a shipyard in Jacksonville. ‘He has been entirely consistent. He has consistently taken two sides of every major issue, sometimes more than two.’”
The Washington Post adds, "The angry tone between the two extended to the airwaves, as McCain launched a new negative radio ad. ‘If they're going to attack us, we'll push back, so if we have a little sport roughing them up, too bad,’ McCain adviser Mark Salter said.” McCain's new radio ad mocks Romney's economic record as governor and questions his electability, with an announcer saying, ‘The bottom line: Mitt Romney loses to Hillary Clinton. Republicans lose. We can't afford Mitt Romney.’”
CONTINUED >>
CALIFORNIA: A new L.A. Times/CNN/Politico poll has McCain and Clinton with comfortable leads. Clinton maintained a 49% to 32% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats, despite losing some support in key voter groups. McCain carried 39% of likely Republican primary participants, to 26% for Mitt Romney, who also bolstered his standing among California voters.
The most important stat in the poll: "About half of voters are expected to use mail-in ballots -- which have been available since Jan. 7 -- and Clinton was romping over Obama among that group, 53% to 30%. Among those expecting to cast ballots in a traditional precinct visit, the race was a closer 42% to 34% in Clinton's favor. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was also running stronger among mail-in voters, if still behind McCain."
CLINTON: Clinton was in Massachusetts and Connecticut yesterday. “Clinton used her platforms -- gymnasiums in Springfield and Hartford packed with energized voters -- to criticize President Bush in advance of last night's State of the Union address. She barely alluded to her heated struggle with Barack Obama, who trounced her on Saturday in South Carolina's primary, and in Springfield she ignored the endorsement Senator Edward M. Kennedy was bestowing upon the Illinois senator about the same hour in Washington.” pen a supportive op-ed for Clinton in today's Los Angeles Times.
The New York Times’ David Brooks writes, "Last week there was the widespread revulsion at the Clintons’ toxic attempts to ghettoize Barack Obama. In private and occasionally in public, leading Democrats lost patience with the hyperpartisan style of politics -- the distortion of facts, the demonizing of foes, the secret admiration for brass-knuckle brawling and the ever-present assumption that it’s necessary to pollute the public sphere to win. All the suppressed suspicions of Clintonian narcissism came back to the fore. Are these people really serving the larger cause of the Democratic Party, or are they using the party as a vehicle for themselves?"
“The Rev. Al Sharpton Monday joined the chorus of Democrats telling Bill Clinton to zip it. ‘As one of the most outspoken people in America, I think there's a time to shut up. That time has come,’ Sharpton said,” per the New York Daily News . “Whether he thinks it's the press distorting him or not, his making these statements is polarizing the country."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The New York Times’ coverage today isn't quite a campaign obit, but...
"Giuliani campaign chartered a 727 on Monday for a day of barnstorming on the eve of Tuesday’s big primary, but none of the rallies at airports in Sanford, Clearwater, Fort Myers or Fort Lauderdale drew even a hundred supporters. Mr. Giuliani’s edge on the airwaves has dissipated, too, as his rivals are now outspending him on television. And Mr. Giuliani has found himself an afterthought in some local coverage of the primary, which has centered on Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney, who lead in polls."
The New York Sun's Gerstein writes, "If Mayor Giuliani's presidential campaign fizzles in Florida today, as polls suggest it will, he will face a sequence of events that will encourage him to get out of the race within hours in order to preserve his political ties and business relationships, supporters and political analysts said. The fast-moving campaign calendar may deny Mr. Giuliani the luxury of a few days to mull over his situation. The Republican candidates are scheduled to debate at the Reagan Library in California tomorrow night and the crucial 21-state Super Tuesday battle is seven short days away. The former mayor may want to avoid the resentment he might generate by taking up time at the debate only to pull out a day or two later.”
CONTINUED >>
So did Obama snub Clinton? The Chicago Tribune seems to think so. "Sen. Barack Obama refused to make himself available to greet Sen. Hillary Clinton before the speech. When members of the Senate entered the chamber, Obama came in before Clinton. He went out of his way to greet as many House members as possible and walked halfway across the chamber to greet members of the Supreme Court, the president's cabinet, the military joint chiefs. That made what happened next even more striking. Obama returned to stand by his seat next to Sen. Edward Kennedy who endorsed Obama today in a widely watched event that reverberated across the political world.”
More: “As Clinton approached, Kennedy made sure to make eye contact and indicated he wanted to shake her hand. Clinton leaned towards Kennedy over a row of seats and Kennedy leaned in towards her. They shook hands. Obama stood icily staring at Clinton during this, then turned his back and stepped a few feet away. Kennedy may've wanted to make peace with Clinton but Obama clearly wanted no part of that.” sidestepped a question from NBC’s Brian Williams about whether Kennedy’s endorsement had to do with his disapproval of the Clinton campaign’s tone and conduct. Williams asked, “Does anything about this incident prompt you to change the message of your campaign or how it’s conveyed?” Her response, per NBC’s Sarah Demarest: “Well, I think the message of my campaign is very clear. It is about the high stakes in this election. It is about why is ready to be president on Day One to tackle the tough problems that will await our next president, especially after the eight years of President Bush’s time in office. And it is about who is best prepared to really bring the country together around solutions around solving problems. You know, that’s what I’ve done for 35 years. That’s what I’m offering in this campaign.”
Interestingly, Clinton apparently cancelled her later interviews on CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC. Washington Post says, “Gone were the grand dreams of remaking Social Security, immigration law or the tax code. In their place were modest initiatives, such as hiring preferences for military spouses. The economic package targeted tax breaks to low- and middle-class workers. And the foreign policy stressed Middle East peacemaking and diplomacy with rogue nations.”
“President Bush took office with so much derision for the outgoing president that critics defined his attitude toward governing as ABC -- "anything but Clinton." He would not play ‘small ball,’ he declared, nor would he coddle North Korea or waste time mediating between the Israelis and Arabs. But as he delivered his final State of the Union address last night, Bush increasingly appeared to be adopting some of his predecessor's approach.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Huckabee is in Music City hoping to drum up support for a strong showing on Super Tuesday. Former Fred Thompson territory, Tennessee could be fertile ground for the governor, who picked up the endorsement of the state's Right to Life group and met with legislators in Nashville today.
Florida, says the Southern son, ain't no thang.
"I don't think that tomorrow is the turning point in the road," Huckabee told reporters today. The Huckabee campaign has tried to downplay the Florida results, saying that focus on the Sunshine State is largely a creation of the media.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Ted Kennedy , the lion of the Democratic Party took the stage, standing above a sea of 4,000 young faces and told the crowd, "I feel change in the air."
The crowd responded chanting, "Kennedy! Kennedy! Kennedy!" and "Yes we can! Yes we can! Yes we can!"
"I remember another such time, in the 1960s, when I came to the Senate at the age of 30. We had a new president who inspired the nation, especially the young, to seek a new frontier. Those inspired young people marched, sat in at lunch counters, protested the war in Vietnam and served honorably in that war even when they opposed it," Kennedy said.
That potential to lead a movement for greater change was what Obama promised he would deliver if he was elected president, when he took the stage after the Kennedy. "That is the dream we hold in our hearts. That is the kind of leadership we need in this country. And this the kind of leadership I intend to offer as president," Obama said.
Obama personalized his connection to the Kennedy legacy through the stories he said his grandparents and his mother told of that hopeful era in American politics. And in a poignant moment, he referred to his father, whom he rarely mentions on the campaign trail. He told the story of how his father was only able to study in the United States because of the Kennedy family's foundation that provided scholarships for foreign students to come to the United States.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton talked about the different perspective she would bring to the White House -- as a daughter, wife, and mother.
It seemed intended to connect with women voters. "I will bring to the White House my perspective as a daughter, as a wife, as a mother, because that's never been in the White House before," she said to applause and cheers from the crowd. "I know what it's like to have to be at work and your baby wakes up sick. I know what it's like when the babysitter calls in sick. I know what it's like when the appointment you thought would be done by time for you to pick your child up from school keeps going and going and you can't get out of it. I mean, I have lived this and I know how hard parents today are working."
She also made a point of mentioning having received the endorsement of US Rep. Jim McGovern (D), an Iraq war critic who represents Central and Southeastern Massachusetts. "I was very honored to receive the support and endorsement of Cong. Jim McGovern, who has been one of the most consistent critics and opponents of the war in Iraq and he endorsed me. And some people said, 'Well, why would you endorse Sen. Clinton?' And I was so humbled by his response, which was that because he trusts me and believes in me to end it the right way."Obama today, Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy spoke about the Illinois senator's having been against the Iraq war from the beginning.
Clinton ended by asking the crowd to come out and vote for her on February 5 or to vote absentee if they won't be around that day.
She did not take questions, instead greeting voters in the rope line before heading to Washington for Senate business, including a vote on the FISA bill.
From NBC's Victoria Riess Edwards campaign announced an "aggressive media buy" in ten states over the next 48 hours, which it plans to expand as February 5th approaches. According to the campaign, the ad buys will give the public more exposure to Edwards' message and help him win support because, "as we saw in South Carolina, once people have a chance to hear directly from John Edwards, the numbers move."
The campaign added that fundraising is booming, totalling almost $4 million dollars even before Federal Matching Funds took effect. The campaign noted that the most significant trend in an increase in fundraising came from long-time online supporters who made first-time contributions.
The campaign is confident going into the race for delegates on Feb 5th, citing several states in which Edwards has strong support and backing (AL, CA, ID, GA, MA, MN, MO, NM, ND, OK, TN).
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
In a continuation of their back-and-forths, Romney blasted McCain on the economy -- and wanted the Arizona senator to know that he has no interest in becoming McCain's running mate.
Even before 7:00 am ET, Romney came out swinging against McCain today: At a gas station session with reporters that the campaign added late Sunday to today's schedule, Romney addressed what he considers to be shortcomings in McCain's record. Those boiled down to three bills Romney considers flawed. They are McCain-Feingold , which he said has made the impact of money on politics worse; McCain-Kennedy , which he tagged as an "amnesty bill"; and McCain-Lieberman .
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani charter this afternoon sat a baseball -- with Rudy Giuliani’s name scribbled between the stitching.
It seemed like a going-away present from a campaign that has appeared more resigned to its fate in recent days. Campaign staffers and the press have been dancing around the future throughout the day, with one reporter even joking with a press aide about finding new jobs.
The crowd at the St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport was thin, barely reaching triple digits. At times, Giuliani’s surrogates -- Jon Voight and Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- have seemed to have more enthusiasm than the candidate himself.
But Giuliani, with Judith by his side and holding his hand throughout a press availability, has been hitting home his message, placing himself as the most experienced on both economic policy and national security, and believing early voting will give them a more reliable turnout than his opponents.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Ted and Caroline Kennedy are slated to endorse Obama, the crowd waiting outside is fairly subdued -- a lone "Yes we can" chant starts and stops as suddenly as it began -- a much different crowd than, per NBC's Gabe Herman, the enthusiastic supporters who were lined up earlier this morning to get tickets for the rally. Much like people wait in lines for a rock concert or a Maryland-Duke basketball game for tickets, four people arrived at 5:00 am ET and about 100 other people joined them, until 8:30 when the line exploded down the block.
Inside the American University gym, an overflowing crowd of mostly students energetically awaited Obama's arrival. Cheering and chanting, they did not mind waiting almost an hour for the senator to arrive.
Much like the public, members of the press had to wait more than 45 minutes to enter the auditorium. And about 75 to 100 members of the press, including some who have been traveling with the candidate for the past several months, were not allowed into the event because of space constraints.
More to come...
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards used the occasion of President Bush's State of the Union speech tonight to bash 1) his economic stimulus plan and 2) Washington.
"Well, there a couple of things wrong with his stimulus plan," he told an enthusiastic crowd. "Number one, it leaves tens of millions of Americans who most need the help out of this stimulus plan. Second, it does -- it'll take months for it to actually kick in, and as all of you know without me telling you, people are hurting right now. They need help right now."
Edwards then said that the stimulus plan illustrates how Washington is out of touch with ordinary Americans.
The former North Carolina senator began speaking 40 minutes after the rally was scheduled to start. It was held in an IBEW hall, and he noted that his brother is a card-carrying member of the IBEW local in Raleigh, NC. In his speech Edwards also covered education, global warming, trade policy, and withdrawing troops from Iraq.
Edwards, who used to take questions from audience members at almost every event, has not taken questions from audience members since before his first town hall back in South Carolina on January 19. In Chattanooga, he didn't take questions from reporters, either.
From Chattanooga, Edwards flies to Nashville and then Springfield, MO.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain held a roundtable on national security this morning with several of his biggest supporters and surrogates. Held at Atlantic Marine, which builds both commercial and naval vessels, the event included two senators, a former CIA director, a FBI-agent-turned-southern-governor, a past head of the VA Administration and a former POW who was held in Hanoi with McCain.
For almost an hour, the panel took turns describing the threats of terrorism in general and 'radical Islamic extremism' in particular, with an emphasis on why McCain's experience makes him the best candidate to handle the challenges that lie ahead. Although not exactly an unbiased panel, the clear point was to take another step towards shifting the debate in Florida -- home to roughly 2 million veterans -- back towards defense and military preparedness
But McCain couldn't get away from what has become a heated back-and-forth with Mitt Romney over the economy and the candidates' respective conservative records. Speaking to reporters after the roundtable, McCain responded to Romney's attacks from earlier this morning that likened the senator to a liberal Democrat.
"One thing I think we should really give Governor Romney credit for -- he is consistent," McCain said. "He has consistently taken both sides of any major issue. He has consistently flip-flopped on every issue…
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland Ted Kennedy said he will "offer my help, my voice, my energy and my commitment to make Barack Obama the next president of the United States," according to remarks prepared for delivery today. And in not-so-subtle pushes against the claims of Obama's biggest rival, he'll says, "I know that he's ready to be president on Day One."
Kennedy acknowledges the "work and dedication" of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards , calling them his friends. "But I believe there is one candidate who has extraordinary gifts of leadership and character, matched to the extraordinary demands of this moment in history. He understands what Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr . called the 'fierce urgency of now.'"
The Massachusetts Senator then directly responds to rivals' criticisms, calling on the crowd to "reject the counsels of doubt and calculation." While Kennedy doesn't specifically name Senator Clinton, his target seem obvious. "We know the true record of Barack Obama," Kennedy will say of Obama's war stance. There is the courage he showed when so many others were silent or simply went along. From the beginning, he opposed the war in Iraq. And let no one deny that truth." Kennedy voted against the initial war authorization.)
On who's really the "change" candidate, Kennedy will say: "Barack Obama is the one person running for President who can bring us that change. Barack Obama is the one person running for president who can be that change."
And toward the end of the speech, Kennedy connects Obama to his brother, JFK . "There was another time, when another young candidate was running for president and challenging America to cross a New Frontier." Kennedy says JFK also faced criticism from Democrats about his lack of experience.
"Harry Truman said we needed 'someone with greater experience' -- and added: 'May I urge you to be patient,'" Kennedy will say. "And John Kennedy replied: 'The world is changing. The old ways will not do... It is time for a new generation of leadership.' So it is with Barack Obama."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray Gore in '00, Lieberman's ' 04 bid, and the DNC in '04 general election -- has joined Team Clinton as a senior communications adviser.
Always armed with a good sense of humor, Jano sends up this YouTube clip about his return into presidential politics.
From NBC's Mark Murray California and New York . Per the surveys, Clinton leads Obama in California, 47%-35%, and also in New York, 56%-28%.
On the GOP side in California, it's McCain 35%, Romney 27%, Huckabee 12%, and Giuliani 11%. And in New York, it's McCain 42%, Giuliani 24%, and Romney 14%.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Author Toni Morrison, who famously labeled Bill Clinton "the first black president," has endorsed Obama . In a letter to the senator, she writes, "In thinking carefully about the strengths of the candidates, I stunned myself when I came to the following conclusion: that in addition to keen intelligence, integrity and a rare authenticity, you exhibit something that has nothing to do with age, experience, race or gender and something I don't see in other candidates. That something is a creative imagination which coupled with brilliance equals wisdom."
Here's her full endorsement letter:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray A little drop of rain on the
Obama -
Kennedy parade today, the
Chicago Tribune is reporting:
Tony Rezko was arrested due to an alleged bond violation.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro New York Times front-pages the news of Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama, which occurs today at 12:15 pm ET at American University in DC. "Both the Clintons and their allies had pressed Mr. Kennedy for weeks to remain neutral in the Democratic race, but Mr. Kennedy had become increasingly disenchanted with the tone of the Clinton campaign… He and former President Bill Clinton had a heated telephone exchange earlier this month over what Mr. Kennedy considered misleading statements by Mr. Clinton about Mr. Obama, as well as his injection of race into the campaign. Mr. Kennedy called Mr. Clinton Sunday to tell him of his decision.” Did we read that correctly? Ted Kennedy called Bill Clinton -- and not Hillary -- to tell him of the decision? Anyway, the Clinton camp trotted out a statement from Kathleen Kennedy Townsend as a counterpunch to the endorsements from Teddy and Caroline Kennedy (and, per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Patrick Kennedy will also be endorsing Obama). Umm, not quite the same impact...
*** Where Kennedy Helps Obama : The thing about a Kennedy endorsement is that once he's in, HE'S ALL IN. Ask Al Gore or John Kerry. Kennedy loves campaigning and when he hits the stump, he gets fired up. And as the Times reports, Kennedy is going to head West and then back to the Northeast to campaign for Obama. He could be particularly helpful for Obama in wooing rank-and-file, blue-collar Democrats as well as Latinos, two parts of the Democratic coalition Obama's under-performed with. Of course, Obama -- as this YouTube clip shows -- hasn’t always had kind words for Kennedy… Bush’s swan song : President Bush steals the spotlight from the most competitive and fascinating presidential nominating contests in years when he delivers his final State of the Union address tonight. And when he gives that speech, he will do so as his ratings remain near -- or at -- all-time lows, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Just 31% approve of his job as president, 29% approve of his handling of the economy, 28% approve of his handling of Iraq, and 32% view him positively versus 57% who see him in a negative light. What’s more, 62% prefer Congress (whose approval rating stands at 18%) taking the lead role in setting policy for the country, compared with 21% who want Bush to do so. Finally, a whopping 70% of respondents believe that Bush’s presidency will turn out either worse than most or not as good as most as the past several presidencies. By comparison, 45% said this of Bill Clinton (who has, of course, been in the news lately) in January of 1999.
*** Behind that FL turnout : A lot has been made of the higher-than-expected turnout among Florida Democrats. Let's not forget that one of the reasons turnout is a bit higher in the Florida primary could have as much to do with the contentious property tax ballot init that's on the state ballot tomorrow as it is with the presidential race. Millions of dollars has been spent on this fight over property taxes in the state. According to the Miami Herald , there's been an "avalanche of mailers and television ads from opponents and supporters of the property tax amendment." When you have millions being spent on something like this, you have lots of money being spent on absentee and early voting. So when watching the Florida returns, particularly on the Democratic side, realize there actually is a local pocketbook issue (property taxes) and a multi-million dollar campaign driving turnout. It wouldn't be surprising, in fact, to find out later that the ad campaigns for this property tax fight actually was more expensive than the presidential race. The Lieberman effect : One of the odder endorsers of this cycle has been Joe Lieberman's support of John McCain. What's been odder is that Lieberman has been such a high-profile surrogate. He was in Florida again for McCain, trying to deliver state to the potential GOP frontrunner, something he couldn't do for Al Gore. Romney is trying to use Lieberman's support to highlight some of McCain's less than conservative domestic positions. And Lieberman, while a national security hawk (or conservative, depending on your point of view), has a fairly left-of-center-to-liberal voting record on a number of domestic issues. Questions we're surprised haven't been asked of McCain regarding Lieberman. Why can't you get him to switch parties and switch control of the Senate to the GOP? Of course, the Democrats have treated Lieberman with kid gloves on this issue. But for one press release from DLC's Al From, criticizing Lieberman for endorsing a Republican for president, we've heard nary a peep from Democrats about Lieberman. Why? For that question we posed regarding Senate control. Democrats don't want to chase Lieberman out of the party and therefore cost them control of the Senate.
*** On the trail : On the Democratic side, Clinton stumps in Connecticut and Massachusetts before returning to DC for tonight’s State of the Union; Edwards is in Tennessee and Missouri; and Obama picks up Ted Kennedy’s endorsement at American University in DC. On the GOP side, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all campaign in Florida on the eve of that state’s Republican primary.
Countdown to Florida: 1 day
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The Washington Post curtain-raises tonight’s State of the Union. “For years, President Bush and his advisers expressed frustration that the White House received little credit for the nation's strong economic performance because of public discontent about the Iraq war. Today, the president is getting little credit for improved security in Iraq, as the public increasingly focuses on a struggling U.S. economy. That is the problem Bush faces as he prepares to deliver his seventh and probably final State of the Union address tonight. For the first time in four years, he will come before Congress able to report some progress in tamping down violence in Iraq. Yet the public appears to have moved on from the war -- and possibly from Bush himself.”
More: “Tonight's State of the Union address will look ahead to ‘unfinished business’ that White House aides say can be completed with some goodwill from the Democratic-controlled Congress. Some of that business seems likely to remain unfinished. Bush has long wanted to make permanent the tax cuts approved early in his term, but Democrats appear to have little interest… The president may be better positioned to win reauthorization of existing initiatives he will discuss tonight, such as his program to permit wireless surveillance of suspected terrorists and his ambitious accountability system for the nation's public schools. Aides are also promising modest changes in areas such as housing, health care and Bush's ‘faith-based’ program to assist religious social service organizations, but they concede that the domestic reforms he once sought for immigration and Social Security are out of reach.”
The Wall Street Journal focuses on the free-trade deals Bush will push for tonight. “President Bush will ask skeptical legislators not to spurn free trade, urging passage of a pact with Colombia in a State of the Union address expected to stress keeping the U.S. engaged in the highly competitive global economy… For Mr. Bush, the State of the Union represents a chance to confront the increasing fear among lawmakers and voters that free trade is turning out to be a bad bargain for American workers and companies. Mr. Bush will talk about the ‘importance of trade to the U.S. economy and the importance of opposing the forces of protectionism and isolationism,’ a senior administration official said.”
A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida has McCain at 32%, Romney at 31%, Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 13% among likely primary voters.
It's actually impressive that McCain's camp has had such success in getting Iraq back on the front burner. With Romney finding his comfort zone with the economy, McCain's camp has decided to try and change the subject. "On Sunday, Mr. Romney went on the offensive first , opening a new line of attack on Mr. McCain over economic issues and declining to continue the previous day’s spat over Iraq, calling it ‘yesterday’s news’ at a news conference here. Instead, Mr. Romney sought to revive an argument he used in Michigan. He took Mr. McCain to task for his proposal of a ‘cap and trade’ system for carbon dioxide emissions, saying it would cause energy costs to skyrocket and be a drag on the economy."
"McCain campaigned on Sunday morning in Tampa with Gov. Charlie Crist, who endorsed him on Saturday. Mr. McCain continued his focus on national security, touching only sparingly on the nation’s economic jitters.”
“‘Even if the economy is the, quote, No. 1 issue, the real issue will remain America’s security,’ Mr. McCain said to reporters, according to The Associated Press. ‘And if they choose to say, “Look, I do not need this guy because he’s not as good on home loan mortgages” or whatever it is, I understand about that, I will accept that verdict. I am running because of the transcendental challenge of the 21st century, which is radical Islamic extremism.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post examines the GOP strategies for February 5. "McCain and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani -- if he survives past Florida -- will spend much of their time in the Northeast and in California, where they hope big victories in the largest states will deliver the most delegates. Both will also aim for a few Southern or Midwestern states, such as Illinois and Georgia, where a lot of delegates are at stake."
"Romney has not decided which states to target on Feb. 5, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said. He said the candidate expects to perform well in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and to win in Utah -- Romney is a Mormon, and Mormonism is the dominant religion in the state. His personal wealth could also allow him to compete in more places than his rivals, though the campaign has so far focused its television advertising in Florida rather than in Super Tuesday states.”
“A top Romney adviser said the campaign is taking a ‘cost per delegate’ approach, looking to win delegates with the least amount of money spent on ads and time spent stumping by the candidate. The adviser said one target may be Colorado, where the campaign can stop after California and where a caucus will be held instead of a primary, something that may favor the well-organized Romney camp." And: "Mike Huckabee, who has not won since finishing first in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, has little money to work with and is concentrating on a few Southern states, where his campaign thinks that a strong showing will keep his candidacy alive. Huckabee left Florida on Saturday to stop at a Baptist college in Alabama and will appear Monday in Nashville, showing off his skills on bass guitar at a recording studio in the Music City while campaigning in another Feb. 5 state."
The Wall Street Journal does a February 5 preview. On the Dem side, because of the fact that most of the delegates are awarded via congressional district, rather than via statewide victories, much of the targeting by both campaigns is CD-based. "Based on these calculations, Mrs. Clinton is targeting 60 of the 224 districts in play on Feb. 5, across 17 states, one official said. Clinton campaign officials expect they may lose Colorado and Minnesota, but they have identified districts in each state where they might pick up extra delegates. Similarly, Mr. Obama doesn't expect to win California, but he is running ads in the San Francisco area hoping to pick up delegates in those congressional districts."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post takes a look at the Feb. 12 contests of VA, MD, and DC -- which could become important. Here's how things stand on the Dem side in these three states: "District Mayor Adrian M. Fenty, who endorsed Obama over the summer, brings a formidable canvassing and fundraising operation. In Maryland, Clinton has drawn the backing of Gov. Martin O'Malley and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown. Obama has the support of Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler, Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn F. Ivey and state Sen. Ulysses Currie (Prince George's). Former senator John Edwards of North Carolina has had a smaller presence. On the Republican side, Ehrlich's old organization is expected to help Giuliani with phone banks.”
“In the Virginia Democratic race, Clinton and Obama are staking claim to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's organization, which won the state in 2005 and helped the party take the state Senate last year. Kaine has endorsed Obama and campaigned for him in several primary states. But Kaine's 2005 campaign manager, Mike Henry, is working as Clinton's deputy campaign manager. Clinton's regional finance director is Matthew Felan, who directed Kaine's fundraising."
On the Republican side in Virginia, U.S. Sen. John W. Warner and Rep. Thomas M. Davis III have endorsed McCain. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is co-chairman of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's campaign in the state."
CLINTON : So now what? The New York Times writes that the Clinton campaign “will try to shift the former president back into the sunnier, supportive-spouse role that he played before Mrs. Clinton’s loss in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton advisers said. But Democrats said it was not clear whether the effects of Mr. Clinton’s high profile could be brushed away by having him modulate his campaign style. They said Mr. Clinton had upset some of the central themes of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, including her appeal to women and her assertions that her time in the White House during the 1990s amounted to vital experience rather than a link to a presidency defined as much by scandal and partisan divisions as by its successes on fronts like the economy."
More: "Clinton advisers said that Mr. Clinton would continue to campaign nearly full time for his wife in the days leading up to the Feb. 5 primaries and caucuses in 22 states, yet they added that he would take a more positive tone. They said his role would be akin to his effort before the Iowa caucuses, when he highlighted Mrs. Clinton’s record and her policy ideas, and was used in part to build huge crowds on college campuses rather than attack Mr. Obama. (It was after her third-place finish in Iowa that Mr. Clinton turned much more aggressive.) The campaign announced Sunday night that Mr. Clinton would speak on Tuesday at a college in New Jersey, which has a Feb. 5 primary."
Bloomberg's Al Hunt has a tough piece on the Clintons under the header: "Clinton Paying a Price for Duplicity on Obama."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Many reports today read like campaign obits for Giuliani. Of course, every time the collective press corps thinks a candidate's about to be left for dead on the GOP side, they go and surprise us. But... things aren't looking good for Rudy tomorrow. "Giuliani said he will keep making his case in what he considers to be a competitive three-man race. He plans to fly around the state Monday, following a bus tour of southeast Florida on Sunday."
MCCAIN : John McCain continues to admit that he's learned his lesson from last year's lost immigration fight. "McCain now is embracing a version of the attrition strategy to fight illegal immigration, saying his version of a guest-worker plan would actually force many illegal aliens to leave the country over the next couple of years. ‘I would propose, once the borders are secure and the borders stay government-certified, then I would have [a] tamper-proof biometric-document system so that the only people that can work are those who have that. And that would cause many more to leave this country,’ Mr. McCain told ‘Al Punto,’ Univision's Sunday political talk-show program, in an interview broadcast yesterday.”
The New York Times looks at the success McCain is having in wooing the establishment; a day doesn't go by without an endorsement from some well-known Republican official.
Of course, the one area of the GOP establishment McCain hasn't succeeded in wooing is the conservative establishment, but will that change with a win in Florida?
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Is it now all about Bill? The magnitude and size of Obama's South Carolina victory is likely to shift a negative focus on Bill Clinton's role in the campaign. Until yesterday, his role at been panned in the media -- but seen as successful in New Hampshire and Nevada. That was not the case yesterday. Camp Clinton is no doubt pondering some shift in Bill's role. Frankly, last night was strange when the first Clinton the world heard from last night on camera was Bill (from Missouri) and not Hill (from Tennessee). For a candidacy that swears is only about Hillary, having Bill be the first Clinton the public hears from sent the wrong signal.
*** On to February 5 : With Clinton and Obama splitting the first four contests, we head into Tsunami Tuesday in a Democratic nominating race that seems entirely up for grabs. From our vantage point, these are Clinton’s base states: CA, NY, NJ, AR, MA, and OK. Obama’s are: AK, ID, KS, MN, ND, GA, AL, and IL. The toss-ups appear to be: AZ, CT, CO, DE, MO, NM, TN, and UT. Among those toss-ups, AZ and CT might lean towards Clinton, since they’re closed to independents, and TN -- where Clinton is today -- probably leans her way, too. Of course, Obama will make plays in CA, MA, and NJ, and sources tell us that he is going up with ads in Philly (NJ) and New York City (NY, NJ, CT). Also, Edwards will go heavily after OK and TN.
*** The Florida exhibition game : But what about Florida? Last night, in her concession statement, Clinton said, “We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the 22 states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.” Yet because Florida moved up its primary before February 5, the DNC stripped the state of all of its delegates, rendering the contest nothing more than a beauty contest or an exhibition game. So as we now head into the playoffs, Team Clinton believes that an upcoming exhibition game should matter. As the Obama campaign shot back in a statement yesterday afternoon, “It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath… If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause.”
*** Clinton-Obama isn’t the only contentious race going on : McCain vs. Romney is heating up big time. McCain's getting endorsements galore -- the Charlie Crist pick, coupled with Mel Martinez, gives McCain's folks every chance they can to make up whatever ground they think they need against Romney. It's a battle of two coalitions: Romney's putting together younger conservatives, talk-radio conservatives, and social conservative activists; McCain's got veterans, Cubans, moderates, and the 65+ crowd. Both are winning formulas in a multi-candidate primary. More importantly, both Romney and McCain have opponents taking a piece of their base coalition: Giuliani's hurting McCain with Cubans and moderates; Huckabee is hurting Romney with social conservatives. The big question is: Who needs Florida more? Probably Romney. A McCain victory in Florida may mean he's unstoppable; a Romney victory probably won't do enough to stop McCain from getting his share of delegates on February 5, since there's a chunk in the Northeast (NY, NJ, DE and CT) that are winner-take-all and likely to be hard for Romney to wrestle away. By the way, the Crist endorsement is gutsy politics for the Florida governor. If McCain wins, Crist becomes the single-most important kingmaker endorsement in the GOP primary. If McCain loses, it will cause Crist internal problems for some time, as he won't be the vaunted state party leader his approval ratings seem to hint at. By the way, Joe Lieberman goes back to Florida today to campaign for McCain...
*** On the trail : Clinton attends worship services in Memphis, TN; Edwards stumps in Dublin, GA; Giuliani is in Florida, where he speaks at a Boca Raton synagogue and then campaigns in Port St. Lucie, Vero Beach, and Cocoa Beach; Huckabee, also in Florida, speaks at First Baptist Orlando (closed to the press), then attends a Fair Tax rally in Jacksonville, and then delivers evening remarks at East Brent Baptist Church in Pensacola; McCain, in the Sunshine State campaigns in Polk City, Lake Lady, and Orlando; Obama makes remarks at Harvest Cathedral in Macon, GA and then heads to Birmingham, AL; and Romney, in Florida, attends fundraisers in Palm Beach and Boca Raton.
Countdown to Florida: 2 days
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Tonight's victory speech by Obama may be his best yet, powerful, looking toward the future and putting his opponents in their place while appearing to rise above the nasty attacks that have dominated the race for the past two weeks.
Obama told the crowd that change and overcoming the status quo would be difficult, reminding the crowd of the attacks he'd faced from the Clintons over the past two weeks. "We are up against an idea that it's acceptable to say anything and do anything to win an election," he said. "We know that this is exactly what's wrong with our politics."
But he also praised his opponents in the race, calling them "fierce competitors" and reminded the crowd that had booed Hillary Clinton all night that at the end of the day they were all competing for the Democratic nomination and would have to come together in the general election.
Obama also used the attacks of the past few weeks as a proof that there is a larger malaise within American politics that allows division to dominate the debate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller John Edwards is not dropping out tonight.
Following a litany of people whose voices he said would be heard in his campaign, the South Carolina native said, "Finally, if you’re one of the millions of Americans who have yet to cast your vote in this democratic process, beginning on Feb. 5 and moving beyond, your voice will be heard and we will be there with you every single step of the way."
Despite a third-place finish in his home state, Edwards will turn his attention to Feb. 5 states, appearing first tomorrow in Dublin, Ga. and continuing on to Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, Minnesota and North Dakota by mid-week. Senior adviser Joe Trippi maintained that the former North Carolina senator will be competitive on Super Tuesday -- doing better in some states than he did today in South Carolina.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's David Shuster
That is higher than the 450,000 who voted last Saturday in the GOP South Carolina primary. And the turnout today is up by 75% compared to the Democratic primary turnout in 2004... That primary turnout was 290,000.
From NBC's Abby Livingston and Donna Nelson Caroline Kennedy is off the fence. After making twin $2,300 donations to Obama and Clinton in 2007, she is endorsing Obama in Sunday’s New York Times -- in a piece entitled "A President Like My Father."
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds, Kennedy echoes what many voters on the ground have said about Obama after hearing him speak that he could inspire a generation in the way that her father did.
"I have never had a president inspire me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I bleieve I have found the man who could be that president - not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans," Kennedy writes.
She also praises Obama for his vision and says that he's "run a dignified campaign," a clear reference to the attacks from the Clinton campaign this past week.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Charlie Crist is on the agenda for the Orange County Lincoln Day Dinner, just below Giuliani as the guest of honor. But an endorsement is not on the menu.
Crist did not appear at the dinner -- he changed his plans several days ago, sources said -- but his presence was certainly felt. Giuliani aides were visibly upset Saturday at the news that the popular Florida governor would be backing McCain .
Giuliani campaign sources said Crist pledged his endorsement to Giuliani in the early fall, when McCain’s campaign appeared dead and Giuliani was leading the state by double digits. But at the time, McCain supporters leaned on Crist to hold back and wait until after the New Hampshire primary. McCain had campaigned for Crist when he was seeking the Republican nomination for governor, and had hoped Crist would return the favor.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo Obama received about 80% of the African American vote. The size of his vote was nearly uniform across every demographic group among blacks, as well as nearly every issue or opinion question in the poll: old, young, male, female, well educated, poorly educated -- all of them broke in pretty much the same way. Clinton got 36% of the white vote -- it really was pretty close to a three-way split; Edwards got 40% and Obama 24%.
An MSNBC/McClatchy poll released on Thursday showed Obama's support among white voters to be 10%. So consider his showing tonight a big improvement.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton released this statement: "I have called Senator Obama to congratulate him and wish him well. Thank you to the people of South Carolina who voted today and welcomed me into their homes over the last year. Your stories will stay with me well beyond this campaign and I am grateful for the support so many of you gave to me. We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.
"In the days ahead, I'll work to give voice to those who are working harder than ever to be heard. For those who have lost their job or their home or their health care, I will focus on the solutions needed to move this country forward. That's what this election is about. It's about our country, our hopes and dreams. Our families and our future."
A quick note about Clinton's statement: While American Samoa will actually award delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Florida WILL NOT. The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida -- like it did Michigan -- of ALL of its delegates for moving its primary before February 5. The eventual nominee can decide to sit Florida's and Michigan's delegates at the convention, but they won't count toward deciding the nominee.
So while Florida Democrats will vote in the state's primary on January 29, the contest will not be awarding delegates.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Dozens and dozens of members of the media, yours truly included, were in line being cleared by the Secret Service watching events unfold on a big screen, projected backwards, as MSNBC came up and Obama was declared the winner. The breadth and quickness of the victory was surprising to most everyone here. "Really?" one reporter said. "Calling it already? Wow."
The room here at the Columbia Convention Center could fit three full-size basketball courts, and it would take four or five 6-feet-tall people standing on each other's shoulders to reach the ceiling. The room even has the feel of a sporting event. Tons of media, bleachers (called risers here and in TV land) on all four sides of the room, and even, yes, a full marching band
In measuring the fervor of this crowd, which is not really starting to fill in, as Hillary Clinton came up on the screen recently, overwhelming boos came up from the Obama faithful. The fervor is palpable. "Ready to Go! Fired up!" and Go-bama, go" chants are begining to come to a full boil and rise, which is now being joined in by cymbals and bass drum. One gets the sense that this place will really get loud when the candidate takes the stage. This could really be a knock-down, drag-out fight for the nomination complete with complicated delegate math. Stay tuned.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
He credited turnout, which he said approached half a million people and Obama's broad support, including getting 24% of the white vote, according to exit polls. "He's bring new people into the party," Axelrod said, adding, "It's just a harbinger of things to come."
Axelrod also questioned the Clinton spin of trying to make Florida and Michigan relevant after all the candidates had signed pledges to not campaign there, including an afternoon memo on the topic.
"It is kind of curious," he said, smiling wryly. "We all agreed to the Democratic Party rules. We all signed a pledge.
"When that memo came out in the middle of the afternoon, I knew this would be a good day."
NBC projects that Clinton will finish second in South Carolina.
A little bit of non-Democratic news... Florida Gov.
Charlie Crist (R) is to endorse
McCain .
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo The South Carolina Democratic primary has been a bitter, hard-fought contest with
Hillary Clinton and
Barack Obama taking jabs at each other in Monday's televised debate. In the exit polls, we asked voters in this primary if the candidates were attacking each other unfairly. Fifty-six percent of those voting so far think Obama attacked Clinton unfairly, and while that is a high number, more people thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama -- 70%.
The Clintons have been accused of playing the race card in this contest. We do see some potential fallout for the Clintons in the African-American community: 74% of African-American voters think that Clinton unfairly attacked Obama. But when we look at the same question among white voters, a comparable number thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama -- 68%.
Also worth mentioning, a majority of the voters -- 56% -- said that Bill Clinton's campaigning was important to their vote today.
NBC News has declared Barack Obama the projected winner in South Carolina by a substantial margin. Hillary Clinton is running second and Edwards third.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton struck a conciliatory note, admitting that he has gotten “hot” defending his wife even as he defended his campaign role.
"I have not said anything that is factually inaccurate," he said.
Clinton had some scrambled eggs and grits with supporters this morning before setting off to visit polling locations here and upstate. As he greeted voters at the Meadowlake polling station, a woman greeted him and said, “You’re doin’ good. Just watch what you say.”
“My message has been 99.9% positive for 100% of this campaign,” Clinton said to reporters later. “I think that when I think she’s being misrepresented, I have a right to try to with factual accuracy set the record straight, which is what I’ve tried to do.”
A number of prominent Barack Obama supporters and neutral observers have criticized Clinton’s vocal role on his wife’s behalf. John Kerry told National Journal that “being an ex-president does not give you license to abuse the truth.”
“Did you notice he didn’t specify?” Clinton said when asked about the comment. “They never do. They hurl these charges, but nothing gets specified. I'm not taking the bait today. I did what I could to help Senator Kerry every time he needed me, and every time he asked me. He can support whomever he wants for whatever reason he wants. But there's nothing for me to respond to.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Bill Clinton has made much of the news here, there is another candidate’s spouse who is pushing hard on the trail in South Carolina: Michelle Obama . She has canvassed the state with as many events as the former president and with as broad a message as her husband -- but also with a large focus on women.
There was a decisive gender gap in the New Hampshire primary -- unlike in Iowa -- and many political observers have credited the bloc with turning that election Hillary Clinton’s way. In South Carolina, voters appear split along racial and generational lines. And women appear to be breaking that way as well.
“Obviously, with women being such a large portion of the electorate, it’s important,” said Katie McCormick-Lelyveld, spokeswoman for Michelle Obama, who stressed that it’s not her entire message, but that it is important to explain what the Obamas are like as a family -- a clear appeal to women.
Michelle Obama’s ease and ability to connect with women was evident at a women’s roundtable here Thursday at a child development center. She started the event off by reading to pre-schoolers, and it was clear this wasn’t the first time she’d done this.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Bethany Thomas McCain stepped up the back-and-forth between him and Romney today by taking the tiff to the stage. Usually, McCain avoids taking swipes at his fellow candidates in front of voters and usually saves the big talk for the media.
But today, McCain attacked Romney on the stump. “Governor Romney last April said he believed we should set up a, quote, timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. My friends, when he suggested that, General Petraeus’ new strategy in Iraq was just beginning. That didn’t work. They said there wouldn’t be any difference between the Democrat position on the issue and the Republican. I’ll tell you, my friends: There’s a great deal of difference between mine and Senator Clinton’s -- who said in 60 days after she is president, she would withdraw troops. That’s surrender. That’s waving the white flag.”
“I understand that Governor Romney has changed his position again, and he has said on several other issues. But, my friends, I was there. He said that he wanted a timetable for withdrawal. That would have meant disaster. That would have meant that Al Qaeda would have been telling the world that they defeated the United States of America. Now, Governor Romney has said that he thinks maybe that I should apologize for saying what is clearly on the record as his support for timetables for withdrawal. I think the apology is owed to the young men and women who are serving this nation in uniform and we will not let them down and hard times or good. There’s who the apology is owed to.”
From NBC's Terry Pickard
Turnout is heavier than last Saturday's GOP primary.
Reports from various counties:
From NBC's Mark Murray Earlier today in previewing the South Carolina contest, we asked if the Clinton campaign would once again win the expectations game -- after surprising everyone (including themselves) by winning New Hampshire and casting themselves as the underdogs in Nevada, despite leading in every poll there but one.
Well, they're giving it their best shot. "The Obama campaign has been so confident of winning South Carolina that six months ago they flatly predicted victory in the Palmetto State," Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson writes in a memo. "Cornell Belcher, Senator Obama’s pollster, stated explicitly to the Politico on July 25, 2007, 'We are going to outright win South Carolina.' And today, Senator Obama leads by 12, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls taken in South Carolina over the last 10 days."
Then Wolfson says this: "Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday. Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5th. This remains a delegate fight, with 1,681 delegates at stake on February 5th, and 2,025 needed to secure the nomination -- and we are ahead in that fight."
In fact, Obama actually leads the delegate race so far. Also, the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of ALL of its delegates to the Democratic convention after it moved up its contest before February 5. So the Florida Democratic contest -- no matter how many people turn out to vote there -- will not award a single delegate.
“It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath," Obama spokesman Bill Burton says in a statement. "The DNC has made clear that the winner of the contest in Florida will not receive any delegates, so the next step in this nominating process is February 5th. If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause."
Burton added, “Again, no one is more disappointed that Florida and Michigan Democrats will have no role in selecting delegates for the nomination of the party’s standard bearer than Senator Obama, but he looks forward to vigorously competing for their votes in the general election.”
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Mike Huckabee , three things are sweet: Florida oranges, southern barbeque, and Republicans -- at least compared with the Dems.
"That ought to tell America [to] vote for us," Huckabee said of his Democratic rivals, who are engaged today in a bitter battle for South Carolina that many commentators believe has become increasingly nasty in recent days. "Look how mean they are. Nicen up, like us!"
Huckabee's good-natured scolding of his "mean" counterparts came during an impromptu press conference at an orange grove in Polk County, Florida. The former Arkansas governor visited a 40-acre grove that supplies juice for several national chains.
Asked about his strategy to campaign heavily in Southern states like Alabama and Tennessee, Huckabee pointed to the citrus. "The same reason these guys came here to pick oranges, you know? That's where the oranges are. That's where I'm going to try to be on February 5th as much as I can."
Huckabee faces an uphill battle as his state-focused campaign looks to the national spotlight of Tsunami Tuesday. His recent push in Florida comes in the face of rough poll numbers in the Sunshine State. No pessimism was evident at a later stop in Lakeland, though, when Huckabee was mobbed by press and chanting supporters at a barbeque cookoff and tasting.
Despite the niceties from the jovial ex-governor, though, Huckabee hinted that the race in Florida and beyond might not stay so sweet and sunny. "We may get mean before its over," he said. Grinning, he added, "I won't, of course. But those other guys, they might."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike McCain accused Romney of wanting "to set a date for withdrawal, similar to what the Democrats are seeking -- which would have led to a victory by al Qaeda, in my view."
Informed by a reporter that McCain had made those remarks, Romney responded tersely: "You know, I don’t know why he’s being dishonest. But that’s dishonest. To say that I have a specific date is simply wrong and is dishonest and he should apologize. That is not the case. I’ve never said that."
And he lashed out: "I know he’s trying desperately to change the topic from the economy and trying to get back to Iraq. But to say something that’s not accurate is simply wrong and he knows better."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena JonesHillary Clinton and her daughter, Chelsea , spent Saturday morning making retail stops at local restaurants, urging people to go vote.
The first stop was a Shoney's restaurant. "Thanks for your support. I really appreciate it," Clinton told one woman, after posing for pictures.
The pair spent more than an hour greeting mostly black diners. US Rep. Laura Richardson (D), who represents Los Angeles communities like Compton, Watts, and Long Beach, was traveling with Clinton. She introduced herself to a table of black youth by asking if they'd ever heard of the LBC (an abbreviation that has come to mean "Long Beach, CA" and was popularized by rapper Snoop Dogg: "With so much drama in the LBC, it's kinda hard bein' Snoop D-O-double-G") and explaining the senator had been to that community many times.
"She gets it," Richardson said. "And I support her 100%."
One 20-year-old woman said she would be voting today for the first time, but didn't know where she needed to go. An elderly woman arrived wearing an "I voted" sticker. She said she had voted for Obama because she liked "what he stands for."
The next stop was Liberty Tap Room & Grill, a restaurant steps from the capitol, where the crowd was mostly white and the mob scene of reporters and photojournalists overwhelmed the diners.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas FT MYERS, Fla. -- At the home of the largest collection of common and rare seashells in the world, McCain received two New York City Police Department endorsements. The New York City Captains Endowment Association and the New York City Sergeants Benevolent Association -- made up of approximately 11,000 active and retired NYPD sergeants -- gave their nod to the Arizona senator this morning before a crowd of mostly tanned retirees.
“Some of the qualities that we’re known for is our leadership, integrity, courage, problem solving, conviction,” said Roy Richter, president of the New York City Captains Endowment Association. “Those were the qualities that we were looking for to endorse a candidate for president of the United States and we’re happy to offer our endorsement to a true American hero, a person of conviction and leadership, John McCain.”
Many city unions, including the NYPD, have been at odds with Giuliani since his mayoral days, as contract negotiations between the police and the mayor's office grew increasingly tense.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clyburn, who has remained neutral in this race, said he told Bill Clinton "to watch what and how he says it because there are a lot of people who see Barack Obama as their hopes and dreams. And they're going to feel like you’re throwing cold water on their dream." He called Obama’s South Carolina ground organization “the best I’ve ever seen here.” Clyburn also talked about his own efforts through a 501(c)4 he launched to try and get young African Americans involved in politics, in becoming field captains and doing the real organizational leg work of politics.
He was effusive in his praise of Obama's efforts and effects of getting young African Americans involved in this once-segregated state. Clyburn didn’t mention anything about Hillary Clinton. In fact, Clinton only came up once as he talked about his conversation with the former president. He also spoke of his own participation in the civil rights struggles of the 1960s and even having been jailed for three days here in Columbia as a result.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger SARASOTA, Fla. -- Giuliani said voters should ignore the polls and said he enjoyed being the underdog in the race for Florida’s Republican delegates.
“I like feeling like I’m an underdog,” he said. “I think underdogs get a lot of sympathy, a lot of support, they get a lot of interest. But who knows? Who knows if somebody’s an underdog or not an underdog. The voters will decide that and they’re deciding that over the last two weeks and they will decide it for sure on Tuesday.”
He laughed when asked if he was looking for sympathy votes. “No, I think you get a lot of attention as the underdog and there’s a certain feeling of coming from behind that appeals to the American people,” he said.
The latest polls have shown Giuliani in third or fourth place in Florida, but he advised voters to look past the polling. “I say, ‘don’t look at the polls, look into your heart and decide who it is you believe will make the best president and vote for that person,’” Giuliani said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Nice-guy candidate Mike Huckabee campaigning in Florida ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary here has some advice for the Democrats. "Those guys ought to be nice like us," he said. "That ought to tell America vote for us, look how mean they are. Nicen up, like us! Of course, we may get mean before its over so... I won't, of course. But those other guys, they might."
On his Southern strategy: "I'm not sure I'll expect to win Utah," he said. "But I think I'll win Georgia. I believe I'll win Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri. I hope Alabama. You know, the same reason these guys came here to pick oranges, you know? That's where the oranges are. That's where I'm going to try to be on February 5th as much as we can."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama railed against the status quo in his late night rally just hours before polls open in South Carolina Saturday. He told the crowd that change was harder than many people had expected.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Obama introduced a special guest, Judge Glenda Hatchett, who along with her mother is a strong supporter of the senator.
"So if any of y'all have problems, disputes you need resolved..You talk her. The neighbor you know, neighbor's dog torn up your lawn or something," he joked.
Obama kept his stump speech to just 39 minutes and hit Clinton on recent attacks and told the crowd that he wasn't a Muslim and he had "praised Jesus" at the same church for 20 years.
"I respect other people's religions. I just don't like it when they lie about mine," he told the crowd, who shouted out that he should repeat his quote.
He asked the crowd to sign up and volunteer tomorrow and said that the campaign had gotten a 1,000 pledges to volunteer tomorrow, including 700 at an event in North Charleston the night before.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Our Mason-Dixon pollster, Brad Coker, emailed this morning responding to our First Thought graph which cites the 2004 S.C. Dem exit poll showing white voters out-numbering black voters. He disputes the 2004 exit poll. Here's his explanation:
"Keep in mind that exit polls can be flawed as an overall demographic Obviously, Brad does this for a living and has a tremendous track record in South Carolina in particular. I remember in '98, he was the only public pollster to see the Jim Hodges upset for governor.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny put it this morning, “For all of the sunny self-assurance that has propelled him to this juncture … Mr. Obama grappled to find a balance between defending himself against accusations he called distorted and promoting a message of hopeful change in a state that is essential to his bid for the presidency.” Yet today’s Democratic primary in that state -- South Carolina -- presents him with the opportunity to put the past seven days behind him and give him momentum heading into February 5. Indeed, if we learned one thing from Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire (besides being more cautious about reading polls), it’s that victory and momentum can come out of frustration, disorganization, and total chaos.
*** Will Clinton once again win the expectations game? As for Hillary Clinton, there have been several signs that her campaign is downplaying expectations in South Carolina, despite its strong ad buy and deploying Bill and Chelsea to campaign here. For instance, Hillary skipped the state for two days (on Tuesday and Wednesday) to campaign instead in February 5 states. The campaign also seems to be trying to make Florida as relevant as possible, even though the state won’t be awarding delegates. And now we get word that Clinton won’t even be in South Carolina tonight. Rather, she’ll head to the February 5 state of Tennessee. (By the way, this is a page out of the '92 Clinton playbook -- always be in a state that's about to vote, not a state that's already voted.) Nevertheless, remember that Clinton led in South Carolina polls until early December, and that this is a state her husband carried in 1992.
*** The Edwards factor : Finally, there’s John Edwards… If Obama ends up winning this contest, he can in part thank the former North Carolina senator, who seems to be splitting the white vote with Clinton. Edwards also appears to be riding some momentum with his Mr. Nice Guy approach after Monday’s vicious debate between Clinton and Obama. “While Senator Clinton and Senator Obama seem intent on tearing each other down, I'm intent on building you up,” Edwards says in a new radio ad. Moreover, his campaign actually has been outspending both Obama and Clinton on TV ads this past week. In fact, according to our sources, Obama's ranks THIRD in TV-ad spending here over the past week. Overall, Edwards will have spent more on TV ads in South Carolina than either of the two front-runners combined ... that’s right, combined! Could he finish second here? And what would that mean? Edwards staked his entire candidacy on doing well in the first four contests, especially Iowa. And, unless the unexpected happens, he will finish 0 for 4 -- a result that would only increase the number of vultures circling over his candidacy.
*** Things to keep an eye on : As much as we'd like for race to not be a part of the picture, it is. In 2004, the makeup of the Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina was 51% white and 47% black. In that contest, Edwards won over 50% of the white vote and narrowly won the black vote over Kerry, 37%-34% with Sharpton getting 17%. Overall, Edwards beat Kerry, 45%-30%, followed by Sharpton at 10%. Turnout was just under 300,000 in 2004. Also of note, 24% of the 2004 Dem electorate was independent. What does that mean for today? Well, the most recent MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll anticipates an electorate that's 55% African-American and 42% white. Obviously, the Obama campaign hopes the electorate today is closer to Mason-Dixon's survey than the 2004 exit poll. And that's basically THE number to watch for -- the black-white split. More importantly, what will the white number be for Obama? In the last poll we conducted, Obama received just 10% of the white vote; that was a 10-point drop from a week earlier. Also, watch how black women break. In the poll and on the ground, young, black women tend to support him, but not older ones necessarily
*** The basics : Polls in South Carolina open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET. There are 45 pledged delegates at stake. The primary is open, so Democrats, independents, and Republicans can all vote -- provided they didn't participate in the GOP primary last week. And how about this: Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson will all be on the ballot, per the state election commission.
*** Bill’s Jedi mind tricks : So Bill Clinton apparently isn't interested in just messing with Obama's head; he's also turned his attention to McCain. Here’s what Bill said yesterday: "[Hillary] and John McCain are very close. They always laugh that if they wound up being the nominees of their party it would be the most civilized election in American history and they're afraid they'd put the voters to sleep because they like and respect each other." OK, anyone else think Clinton's up to something? Could Mitt Romney's campaign in Florida have asked for a better soundbite from the ex-president than the one he provided yesterday? Seriously, just as Romney and McCain are sparring over Republican credentials, here comes Bill Clinton insisting that McCain and Hillary Clinton are "very close." At some point, that's going to be turned into a TV ad or a radio ad or an attack direct mail piece. Talk radio will have a FIELD day with that one. Of course, the McCain folks could try and convince the right that this is Bill Clinton using his Jedi mind tricks on them, but will they listen; Are these the conservative droids voters are looking for? By the way, is there an op-ed page in America that doesn't have someone writing negatively about Bill's role in this campaign? Bob Herbert's column today was pretty rough. Once South Carolina is over, are we looking at Bill Clinton becoming the sole focus of attention over the next week leading into February 5?
*** The Florida sideshow : It’s also interesting to see the Clinton campaign work the non-binding Florida primary vote so hard. First, the campaign releases a statement promising to sit the Florida delegation at the convention. Then, a few hours later, the state's senior Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, endorses Clinton (a rare recent red-state endorsement for her). Clearly, the Clinton campaign is nervous Obama gets a head of steam out of South Carolina today, and they'd like to blunt the momentum a tad. A convincing straw vote finish on Tuesday could do that. Will she hold a rally that night so that there is something for the news channels to dip into and she can give a victory speech? Tuesday night gamesmanship on the Democratic side will be interesting to follow. Sure, we'll be focused on the incredible McCain-Romney race in Florida and the potential end of the Giuliani candidacy. But seeing how Clinton declares victory in Florida and watching Obama handle the night will make for a good sideshow.
*** Florida's main event : What a difference a day makes. Thursday night, the Republican candidates wanted nothing nasty to do with each other. A day later? And it appears McCain decided to use all of his negative oppo against Romney and vice versa. Does McCain regret not using some of his negative Romney message in Thursday's debate? Because yesterday, he couldn't avoid the topic. Will this be how things close in Florida with McCain-Romney in a knock-down drag out?
*** On the trail : On the Dem side, Clinton has various events in South Carolina before heading to Nashville, TN, where she holds a town hall this evening; Edwards, who spend his entire day in the Palmetto State, stumps in Mt. Pleasant and Columbia, where he holds his Election Night party; and Obama also is in the state, and he has his Election Night party at the Columbia Convention Center. On the GOP side, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, and Romney are all in Florida, although Huckabee later travels to an event in Birmingham, AL.
Countdown to Florida: 3 days
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Bill Clinton’s scolding of the media for asking him race-related questions, race is very much an issue on the ground here in South Carolina. Overwhelmingly, black voters are backing Obama, according to the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll (and others). They like his policies, yes, but they also say it’s a great feeling of possibility to have a viable African-American candidate, something Bill Clinton, himself, has acknowledged.
On the flip side, Obama is getting just an astoundingly low 10% of the white vote in the Mason-Dixon poll -- despite winning in lilly-white Iowa and his broad message. Edwards, the only viable white male on the Democratic side and native South Carolinian, has surged among whites. He, in fact, now leads among the trifecta of candidates, 40%-36% over Clinton. Obama’s support among whites has been slashed in half since the last time the poll was conducted.
At a well-attended, Clinton event this morning at Benedict College, a historically black college, almost all of the attendees were African American. One white woman in attendance said she had been for Hillary since she began running. This gregarious woman ticked off reason after reason for why she’s for Hillary. When asked what she thinks of Obama and Edwards, she replied only, “I like John Edwards.”
She was content to leave it at that, but after a five-second pause, this reporter asked, “What about Obama?”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney responded to McCain's attacks today that he's a manager rather than a leader with a counterpunch of his own.
After opening his remarks at a rally here, he said, "I guess Sen. McCain didn't think as positively of that debate last night as I did, and so he's had to come back and flail a bit, trying to attack my record."
Romney ticked off the lines on his resume that he believes qualify him to take charge of national economic troubles (like his business background, gubernatorial experience, and Olympics leadership), he gave a proverbial raise of the eyebrows to McCain.
Romney said McCain thinks "being on the Commerce Committee in the Senate, that's what gives you the expertise you need to know about how the economy works." He added sarcastically, "Yeah, oh yeah," before citing several of McCain's quotes in the last several years in which the Arizona senator acknowledges his weakness in economic matters comparative to his knowledge of foreign and military issues.
"Now I think that's straight talk, all right?" Romney went on, "Washington talk says that somehow because you've been in Washington and you've been on a committee that you somehow know about how the jobs of this country are created."
Polls have shown the race tightening between the two men in the Sunshine State in recent days, with the two of them alternating leads. The battle is slated to get even more intense tonight when Florida Sen. Mel Martinez , the immediate past chairman of the Republican National Committee, announces his endorsement of McCain.
A Friday bonus: John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times interviews Obama campaign manager
David Plouffe .
Check it out .
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro EDITOR’S NOTE: There has been a lot of confusion over a whispered moment from last night’s debate -- someone saying what we believe was “not raise taxes” after a question from Tim Russert on Reagan and social security. We put the following post up last night immediately following what we and several First Read commenters heard.
For full disclosure, the way it works for us when we’re liveblogging is our contributors, who are either on site at the location or in D.C. or elsewhere, will usually send me posts via e-mail. While I am watching the debate, I read the dispatches, post if applicable after quickly editing and put up my own thoughts. Regular e-mail questions get mixed in sometimes. I put this one up, but when I did, Lauren Appelbaum wrote me and said it was not necessarily intended to be a post but actually just a question to me if I knew who made the "taxes" comment. Being in South Carolina, following the Democrats for their primary and not on site in Florida, I didn’t know. We thought it might have simply been our control room cueing a question, which then didn’t seem to warrant a post, since that would be very inside baseball. So, I took it down.
After some of the confusion today, we are putting it back up for those that haven’t seen it. As far as figuring out the mystery of who or where it came from, that is being worked on, and we hope to have an answer soon. It puzzled us here too, and we’re looking through tape of other candidates to see if it was one of them. We’ll let you know. Here's the original post:
The taxes whisper
Then Romney says “I’m not going to raise taxes…”
First Read commenters also noticed this -- where did this come from?
*** UPDATE *** After reviewing the tapes, NBC determined that a n open mic picked up a whisper from the audience. It is unclear who it is that says it, but it was not said by any of the candidates, was not heard in the hall and, more importantly, not heard by the candidates.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Romney in most of the recent Florida polls, McCain subtly rolled out a new strategy last night: management vs. leadership.
Most of the GOP presidential candidates have tried this anti-Romney strategy at one point or another, but this morning McCain explained his version -- invoking the names of Ronald Reagan and Gen. David Petraeus as examples of true leaders. "I think everybody knows the difference between leadership and management," McCain told a group of reporters gathered at an airport here. "You can hire managers all the time, people who do the mechanics, people who implement policies, people who are good with assets. Leadership is people who inspire… Leadership is people who have had hands on experience with patriotism and service to the nation… Leadership is the ability to inspire and the ability to make Americans serve causes greater than their self-interest."
Asked what that description of leadership implied about his biggest opponent in Florida, McCain said, "Governor Romney is touting his qualities and his experience and resume as a manager. I am telling the American people that I am a leader and they know it."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC special contributor John Wheatley Chelsea Clinton , the former first daughter. Chelsea, who was generally kept well out of the media's sight during the Clinton presidency and has not said a great deal publicly during her mother's campaign, was well received by a crowd that overflowed on to the sidewalk and out into the street in front of the café. She made brief opening remarks before opening it up to questions from the audience, answering directly most of the questions asked of her.
She spoke cogently, showing a strong knowledge of policy specifics. She drew laughter when she waved to a small group of pro-life protesters who were holding signs up against the café’s windows. Avoiding direct criticism of her mother’s rivals, Chelsea answered questions about them by focusing instead on her mother’s record as senator.
Yesterday's event was sponsored by Boston College's chapter of the College Democrats. The sudden push by Team Clinton to increase Chelsea’s role on the campaign trail is part of a larger campaign strategy to woo young voters, who may be drawn to Obama’s youth and theme of change.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani played maracas to the chants of “U.S.A.” as he told Cuban Americans that the country was better off with their presence.
“I know it’s two words -- Cuban American, but you know something, it’s not two words,” Giuliani said, as his words were loosely interpreted into Spanish at the Little Havana Activities and Nutrition Center. “But what’s the last name of all of us? Americans. That’s what we are. We bring with us our different religions, we bring with us our different traditions, we bring with us our different foods. And that’s why it’s the best country in the world, because you make it that way.”
Giuliani reiterated that he would like as president to travel to a democratic Cuba.
“There is no change in a Castro regime that changes from Fidel Castro to Raul Castro,” he said. “I understand that and will not be fooled by that."
He made a veiled reference to what he calls his opponents newfound support for Cuban Americans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten Kucinich may be out of the presidential race, but he’s not finished campaigning, just yet.
“I won’t be president, but I can continue to fight for these important issues as a U.S. Congressman,” said the former dark horse presidential candidate of universal healthcare and ending the war in Iraq during a press conference in Cleveland this afternoon. Kucinich, the former mayor of Cleveland, now represents the district, and is facing four challengers in the March 4 Democratic primary.
“I’m directing my energies to being re-elected to the Congress of the United States,” he told reporters, while flanked by supporters and his wife, Elizabeth. He went on to say that he will channel his presidential campaign into a new organization to push his anti-war, pro-labor agenda, called “Integrity Now” -- but the website , as of this writing, was just a sign-up sheet for future newsletters.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
And maintaining his pattern throughout all of the early states, he made deep appeals to the community here in Miami by dredging up his personal connections here. “I’ve had a long relationship with your city,” he said, adding, “The truth is that I never would have been able to get going in my own business had it not been for Miami, and particularly the Hispanic community.”
He proceeded with the story of how his consulting work met with limited success -- “Now it takes a degree of chutzpah to go to somebody and say, ‘Give me your money, I will invest it for you, and I’ll give you back 80 percent of the profit I make, and I’m going to keep 20 percent of the profit I make. I’m going to charge you a two-percent fee for your money, and by the way if I lose your money, too bad.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Much has been made of the generational gap between the candidates in the race and voters going to the polls tomorrow. But what about reporters covering the election?
Just the other day, Usher stumped for Obama in Orangeburg. He was joined on stage by Kerry Washington and Chris Tucker. A few more veteran reporters asked, " Who's Usher?"
Another asked, "Is this guy big?"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Chelsea Clinton spent the day before the first-in-the-South primary stumping for her mother at colleges across northwestern South Carolina, where she took questions from students and voters from nearby communities.Barack Obama won large part of the youth vote.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Christina Jamison and Domenico Montanaro Clinton emphasized the need to upgrade colleges and make them more affordable for students.
"We do not have any time to waste in increasing the investment in colleges and universities and increasing the investment in our young people so they're able to afford to go on with their education," she told the more than 600 people who packed in to the chapel at Benedict College, a historically black college.
"I also want to do more to help the Historically Black Colleges and universities. So many leaders have come thru these doors... But our help has not kept up with the need. I want to double the amount of money that goes to our Historically Black Colleges."
Though not mentioned in her speech, the campaign released the senator's plan for a "Student Borrower's Bill of Rights," including "the right to timely, accurate and transparent information, affordable loan payments, and the right not to be exploited."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller GREENVILLE, S.C. -- In the push a day before the last primary leading into Super Tuesday Edwards presented his case in Greenville, less than 40 miles east of his hometown.
“I’m the underdog,” he told the crowd eating breakfast at Country Ham House. “I know it. I understand it. You know, I’m running against two candidates, each of whom have over $100 million raised, each of whom get massive glitzy publicity from the media, and my job is to be heard because when I’m heard, people respond. And that’s where you come in. Because they may have all the money and they may have all the media, but I got you.”
Edwards portrayed himself as the “grown-up” candidate in the race, someone who’s concerned not about personal attacks but about issues affecting the lives of South Carolinians.
“This may be the way they do politics in New York," he said. "It may be the way they do politics in Chicago. But South Carolina is better than that, and you deserve better than that."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
Video: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on why Thursday's MSNBC Republican debate was so civil and who it helped the most. ***
Romney’s good first impresssion: Both Romney and McCain got to sound and look presidential. Romney, in fact, may have had his best debate performance in a long time because he wasn't attacked. In every other recent debate, Romney has struggled when under attack. But he wasn't really hit hard last night, and that allowed Romney to control his image more so than in previous debates. Still, he didn’t look that strong answering the question about how much of his own money he will spend on his campaign, and Huckabee landed a body blow when he suggested that Romney’s five sons would have a whole lot more inheritance money if dad weren’t spending so much on his campaign.
*** McCain’s national message vs. Rudy’s local one: McCain, meanwhile, also got to look like a front-runner, but he tailored his message nationally, not so much locally. And while we sometimes got to see that McCain humor (when he talked about his mother, Sly Stallone, and his temper), he also seemed a bit angry in other spots. As for the man with the most pressure on him -- Giuliani -- he certainly made an attempt to appeal directly to Floridians. He did a good job showing them he's learned their issues, but did he look like a winner? He even admitted himself he was an underdog. Huckabee had some great lines, but he didn't seem to be a front-runner like in more recent debates. And then there's Paul… Unlike other gadflys, he doesn't raise a stink when he doesn't get the same treatment as the front-runners do; he just makes his points well. Overall, it was a very good night for Romney and McCain, because the front-runners didn't get attacked and they got to be presidential.
*** Let’s talk about race: Bill Clinton might say that the Clinton-Obama contest has nothing to do with race -- or, as he said Wednesday, that the race issue is coming from the Obama folks or that it’s something the media is stirring up -- but the Bob Johnson and Charlie Rangel comments on Obama’s teenage drug use (which they later apologized for), as well as the intense debate over Clinton’s remarks on MLK and LBJ have had an effect, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. In December, Clinton held a 40%-23% percent lead over Obama among whites, as well as support from a majority of African Americans. But now, Clinton's lead among whites has jumped, 53%-24%, while Obama now has a 63%-23% lead over Clinton among African Americans. "We have had a total shift in the African-American community," NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) says. That’s also true in South Carolina, where a new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon shows that Obama’s support among whites has declined 10 points in just one week. Ask yourself this question: After South Carolina -- where Obama has a 38%-30% lead over Clinton, per that MSNBC poll -- which candidate benefits the most from that racial split?
*** Mr. Bill: Speaking of Bill, once again he’s everywhere in the press. In fact, we see more clips of him of than we see of Hillary’s economic speech yesterday. And, of course, he and his wife played a starring role at last night’s GOP debate.
*** So long, Dennis: Kucinich holds a press conference in Cleveland at noon to announce the end of his presidential bid. One reason why he quit the trail? He's got a serious challenge for his House seat... Bob Dornan lost re-election in '96, the same year he ran for president. Local constituents don't always like being taken for granted. Will Kucinich meet Dornan's fate?
*** On the trail: Elsewhere… Clinton, in South Carolina, stumps in Columbia, Rock Hill, and Myrtle Beach before meeting up with her husband for a rally in Charleston; Edwards, also in the Palmetto State hits Greenville, Columbia, Orangeburg, and Charleston; Giuliani remains in Florida, campaigning in Miami and Sarasota; Huckabee makes five stops in the Sunshine State; McCain holds four events across Florida; Obama spends his final day of campaigning in South Carolina with stops in Charleston, Columbia, Clemson, and Florence before attending an evening rally with his wife in Columbia; and Romney has four events in Florida.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 1 day
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The Miami Herald: “With just five days to go before Florida's do-or-die Republican primary, Thursday's nationally televised debate could have been a bloodbath. Instead, it was more like a Rotary Club forum, with rivals doling out compliments and only the occasional polite disagreement. When the candidates posed questions to their rivals, they tossed Nerf balls.”
Video: Watch the entire MSNBC Republican debate. “Even the legendarily combative Rudy Giuliani, who has slipped to third place in Florida polls,
declined to tear down John McCain or Mitt Romney, the duo wrestling for first place. The docile Republican forum at Florida Atlantic University stood in stark contrast to the most recent Democratic debate, in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama traded barbs.”
The New York Times : "It was not exactly the kind of knock-down, drag-out fight that has characterized past Republican debates. Most of the candidates agreed that the economic stimulus plan being considered in Washington was a good first step but also said it should include permanent tax cuts."
The Washington Post : "The mostly civil forum came at a critical moment in the muddled GOP competition, and the five remaining candidates appeared eager to avoid some of the sharper differences that have sparked tough exchanges. Instead, they played it safe and were often cordial to one another five days before Florida's primary election, which could end one or more candidacies."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post writes about the decision by both Clinton and Obama to pull their negative radio ads. More proof that just when this campaign looks like it's going to go down the normal negative road, the campaigns balk.
“The race between U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, who would be her party’s first female nominee, and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who would be his party’s first black nominee, has divided women along generational and racial lines,” the
Columbia State writes. “It has split households and forced women to ponder racial and gender allegiances.”
The
L.A. Times also looks at how the campaign has become racially polarizing.
The Columbia State notes “Edwards rises in SC polls.” “With only a day left before Saturday’s S.C. Democratic presidential primary, the former U.S. senator from North Carolina and S.C. native is making a move, tracking polls suggest.”took a bit of a swipe at Clinton for not campaigning in the state early this week. "After the debate, she flew out and she's been gone and she won't be back until I don't know -- later in the week or until primary day," Edwards told a crowd of about 150 people in this small city on Wednesday. "What are the chances she's coming back when she's president of the United States?"
The Boston Globe sees the Florida race as between McCain and Romney. “With Fred Thompson out of the race and Mike Huckabee scaling back his efforts in Florida, Romney's camp is trying to seize what many sense is a chance to emerge as the party's conservative favorite.” More: Florida is “the first Republican primary in which independents cannot vote, a rule that is forcing all the candidates to appeal to the party's true believers. That could hurt McCain, who has appealed to independents and Democrats.”
Time looks at Rudy's Florida strategy and notes: "The only GOP candidate with a comparable ground operation in Florida is Mitt Romney, who also boasts campaign offices and thousands of volunteers across the state. The smaller-dollar campaigns of Mike Huckabee and John McCain are only just now beginning to fly in staff and open offices. If the race remains close, experts say, the early-voting push mastered by Giuliani could prove decisive."
The New York Times looks at the national TV ad campaign being waged by Clinton and Obama. "In focusing on particular states and markets, the candidates are also signaling where they hope to compete for the most delegates. So both have put up new spots in recent days in parts of California, Connecticut, Georgia, New Mexico and Utah, with Mr. Obama adding Alabama and Delaware and Mrs. Clinton also setting her sights on Arizona, Massachusetts and Missouri.
Video: MSNBC's Chris Jansing talks with the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart about the ongoing battle between Hillary and Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. “By choosing to spend several million dollars each on commercials that will run simultaneously in more than a dozen states over the next 10 days - and, in Mr. Obama’s case, on CNN and MSNBC as well - Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are being driven by the tight nature of the race thus far and by the bunching of Democratic nominating contests in 22 states on Feb. 5."
More: "All told, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are each believed to be spending at least $2 million a week on television advertising in the days before what is being billed as Super Tuesday - Mr. Obama’s cable advertising bill alone is an estimated $1 million - sums so large that it could make it harder for them to afford advertising in states with later contests if the nomination is not settled that day.”
GIULIANI: Another one of those Giuliani stories that a newspaper realizes only has a shelf life for a few more days? L.A. Times header: "Giuliani's private ventures have mixed record." Subhead: "His firm's failure to finish an anthrax cleanup job, as well as other setbacks, are scattered in the post-9/11 career of the GOP presidential candidate." HUCKABEE: Huckabee begins running a limited TV ad buy in Florida. “The commercial, in which the Republican calls for abolishing the Internal Revenue Service, will air on national cable news channels over the next four days, campaign aides say,” per AP . “It will not, at this point, be seen on widely viewed broadcast channels in pricey Florida, which holds a Tuesday primary, or other states.” MCCAIN: Now that McCain is on the verge of being a front-runner again, he's getting more scrutiny. The Washington Post has a story about McCain manager Rick Davis' ties to a "controversial" Russian businessman. Davis orchestrated a meeting with McCain and the businessman. "The socializing with [this Russian businessman] provides a case study in the challenges faced by McCain, a longtime foe of Washington lobbyists who has a well-known lobbyist as his top political aide. Davis, who has been a political adviser to McCain on and off since 1999, was part of a lobbying firm that worked not only for Ukrainian politicians but also for telecommunications firms, a lottery services provider and freight companies."
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe’s Helman writes of a role reversal between Clinton and Obama. “But as Clinton and Obama now battle for supremacy in the make-or-break contests that lie ahead, they have undergone something of a role reversal: It is now Obama who finds himself questioned about his allegiance to rank-and-file Democrats as Clinton retools her message to target the party's core constituencies.” More: “The tightening of the nomination contest and the presidential campaign's pivot from foreign to domestic policy - particularly to the worsening economy - have catalyzed this shift, which could have major implications for upcoming votes. As Obama tries to win the nomination with a novel coalition of independents, Republicans, and Democrats, Clinton is trying to build on her success among tried-and-true Democrats in New Hampshire and Nevada.” CLINTON: The New York Times notes that the Clinton campaign is viewing Bill's attack-dog role as a positive. "The benefits of having Mr. Clinton challenge Mr. Obama so forcefully, over Iraq and Mr. Obama’s record and statements, they say, are worth the trade-offs of potentially overshadowing Mrs. Clinton at times, undermining his reputation as a statesman and raising the question among voters about whether they are putting him in the White House as much as her."
More: "Mr. Clinton is deliberately trying to play bad cop against Mr. Obama, campaign officials say, and is keenly aware that a flash of anger or annoyance will draw even more media and public attention to his arguments. He will continue campaigning full-time for Mrs. Clinton after South Carolina in states with primaries on Feb. 5 where he is especially popular, like Arkansas, California and New York, they say. They also see benefits in Mr. Clinton’s drawing the ire of the Obama camp, predicting that there will be a voter backlash against Mr. Obama if the former president looks like a victim in the cut-and-thrust of the race."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chris Donovan Senator McCain , you have said repeatedly, quote, 'I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.' Is it a problem for your campaign that the economy is now the most important issue, one that by your own acknowledgment you're not well versed on?"
McCain replied, "Actually, I don't know where you got that quote from."
Actually, the quote came from a 2005 piece by Stephen Moore, in which McCain said: “I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics that I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.”
McCain also said this, per a December 2007 Boston Globe article: "The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should. I’ve got Greenspan’s book.”
Another McCain remark, answering a question on why some Republicans aren't enthusiastic about his bid, also raised our eyebrows: "But, look, I won the majority of Republican vote in both New Hampshire and South Carolina."
Well, according to the exit polls, Huckabee slightly beat McCain among self-identified South Carolina Republicans, 32%-31% . And Romney slightly beat him among self-identified New Hampshire Republicans, 35%-34% . The independent vote in both states was instrumental in putting McCain over the top in those contests.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum While Paul did speak the least during tonight's debate, he was given the last word, answering the last question of the debate.
Times During Segment Three
Romney: 8:48, during five times
Giuliani: 4:14, during four times
Huckabee: 4:02, during three times
McCain: 3:00, during three times
Paul: 2:57, during two times
Total Times
Romney: 21:11, during 13 times
McCain: 16:00, during 13 times
Giuliani: 13:50, during 11 times
Huckabee: 12:11, during nine times
Paul: 6:31, during six times
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Perhaps all of them saw how both Clinton and Obama killed each other in that CNN debate earlier this week and were afraid of turning off voters. Either way, tonight's debate was the tamest GOP affair in weeks. This, despite the fact that half of this field could be out of contention after next Tuesday.
Overall, the tame affair was good news for both Romney and McCain, the two frontrunners in Florida; both got to sound and look presidential. Romney, in fact, may have had his best debate performance in a long time because he wasn't attacked. In every other recent debate, Romney's struggled when under attack. But he wasn't really attacked tonight and that allowed Romney to control his image more so than in previous debates.
McCain also got to look like a frontrunner, but it appears he tailored his message nationally, more so than Florida.
As for the man with the most pressure on him, Giuliani, he certainly made an attempt to appeal directly to Floridians. He did a good job showing them he's learned their issues but did he look like a winner tonight? He even admitted himself he was an underdog.
Huckabee had some great lines but he didn't seem to be a frontrunner like previous debates.
And then there's Paul; unlike other gadflys, he doesn't raise a stink when he doesn't get the same treatment as the frontrunners but he makes his points well.
OVerall, a very good night for Romney and McCain because the frontrunners didn't get attacked and they got to be presidential.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Once upon a time, the frontrunner Giuliani couldn't pass up an opportunity to praise McCain, seeing an important endorsement in his future.
How times have changed. Now it's McCain praising Rudy. Perhaps he's thinking about beating Romney in the NY primary.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
McCain: 4:33, during four times
Total time so far:
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Romney's evasion of the 'personal investment' questions was a little too obvious. He referenced other wealthy politicians and then tried to turn the question towards a support of his independence as a politician. Even after Russert asked again about how much money he had invested in his campaign he still wouldn't answer. This left a door open for Huckabee to use one of his now infamous quips. Huckabee said that if Romney wanted his sons to 'inherit' a great country then he should stop spending his own money and let them keep more of their inheritance.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Obviously, they feel the Times nod to McCain hurts him more than it helps him with the GOP base. But it's surprising that the camp is sending around an article that describes Giuliani as "narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man" and says his "arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Giuliani has been going back and forth on whether to attack McCain by name. He did it over the weekend, but lately has only spoke of his opponents, not naming McCain or Romney. Tonight, he got a bit tougher.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Is Huckabee saying the way for him to win the nomination for people to die off?
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike It's not entirely clear to what Romney was referring when he said he doesn't care about the voters but the other guys on the stage. Taken out of context, it's not a good sound bite for him. This was about not releasing how much money he'd lent to himself, and that he wouldn't release those figures until they are mandated to be released by the FEC -- Jan. 31.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro As Tim Russert asked, and Romney didn't exactly answer, what did Romney mean by the country can't imagine Bill Clinton back in the White House with nothing to do? Hmm... the audience laughed like they had heard an inside joke. Hmm... what did Romney mean? What do you think?
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Here are the times for the how long each candidate had to speak during the first segment of tonight's debate:
McCain: 8:27, answering six questions
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Interesting that
Romney chose to ask
Giuliani and not
McCain his question. And it's not a tough one. Is it because he sees Giuliani as still viable, or because he doesn't?
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Although
Romney tossed a softball in
Giuliani ’s direction rather than taking a whack at
McCain right away, behind the scenes, Romney’s campaign and McCain’s campaign are involved in a team-to-team brawl.
Earlier tonight, Romney released “Waltz” -- a Web ad so-named to highlight McCain’s “contradictory stances” on the Bush tax cuts. Though Romney is often the candidate who takes hits for waffling on positions, the ad blasts McCain for flip-flopping: “First he says… ‘I’ve always been for tax cuts.’ Then he says…. ‘Although I voted against the first tax cuts.’” It concludes: “John McCain. Always for tax cuts. Except when he’s against them.”
McCain’s shop bat back with a Web ad called “Mittsurfing” that hits Romney with: “Mitt Romney seems to change positions like the wind.” It goes on to suggest that Romney, too, may have flipped on the tax cuts -- but because he didn’t articulate his position when he was governor. (Romney has responded to that attack several times by saying he was running a state and didn’t feel it was appropriate to comment on a federal issue at the time.)
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Rudy asked about catastrophic insurance in a way that made him sound like he is a native Floridian or that his own house might be in danger. If Rudy retires from this race -- if he loses Florida -- Florida's not a bad place to retire. But then he'd really push for that catastrophic insurance. Senator Rudy Giuliani (R-FL)??
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani 's campaign sent out the quotes noting McCain 's lack of education on economics and McCain's tax policies (as did Romney's campaign). Giuliani is clearly trying to showcase himself as an economic expert in comparison to McCain and Romney, but many see him most as a national security candidate. It's the harder argument to make for his "best of both worlds" mentality that he has adopted starting today.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann BOCA RATON, Fla. -- ...Or Huck-a-populism? Huckabee told reporters this morning the same riff he gave the debate moderators tonight about how he brought up concerns about the economy in Dearborne, Michigan months ago. It's something he mentions a lot on the stump, but the new spin is the additional critique of Mitt Romney that he unveiled last night. Huckabee slammed Romney yesterday in Ft, Lauderdale and again today for his role at the helm of consulting firm Bain and Co, which the Arkansas governor alleges "[took] people's money and … put it in the Cayman Island bank accounts." His goal is to paint himself as an every man Republican whose tax policies benefit low-income Americans as much as the capital investors and market gamblers whose language Romney and Giuliani may speak more fluently.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Per McCain: Democrats will contribute to increased spending and an expanding government? Weren't those the problems Tim Russert just said Republicans contributed to over the past eight years? Do voters believe McCain when he says that people should vote Republican because the Democrats will continue the legacy that the Republicans started? McCain admitted that runaway spending can partially be attributed to the Republicans but how convincing is it to answer a question about the failures of the Republican party by pointing out the same failures in the Democratic party.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Did
Huckabee just suggest that there were WMD in Iraq that the US Military didn't find? Didn't Fred Thompson get into trouble for suggesting the same thing months ago? Is this another sign of Huck's lack of foreign policy experience?
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger As the debate was beginning, the buzz is about the New York Times endorsements of John McCain and Hillary Clinton. Interesting timing.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and Adam Aigner-Treworgy BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Huckabee tried to wrap his gubernatorial skills, a populist appeal, and a shoutout to Floridians all into one answer, ostensibly about the economic stimulus package. Rather than plunge into global economic issues, he proposed the addition of two lanes to I-95, not uncoincidentally the transportation backbone of Florida, as an alternative to the financial package proposed by Congress and the Treasury. In the process he picked up a torch that Fred Thompson used to wave at these debates not too long ago: the problem with China. It's all part of the effort to bring home a rather academic threat – an economic recession – to middle class voters who might feel the threat of Chinese toys a bit more.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike BOCA RATON, Fla. -- The former Massachusetts governor doesn’t like to bring a lot of new lines to debates and instead is driving the message he’s been hitting hard all week -- that he’s the Republican most equipped to help lift up the economy because he’s the one who’s been in the private sector.
And the attacks: All McCain. We’re not in Iowa anymore. Asked by Russert if he trusts McCain or Huckabee to handle tax policy, he said he differs with both of them, but then turned his stare on McCain only and his votes against the Bush tax cuts.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd The Romney folks will probably disagree but hearing Romney talk about entitlement reform sounds new to me.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clearly these candidates don't want to mix it up tonight; Could it be that the race is too close between Romney and McCain and that too many of our NBC affiliates are carrying this debate and the audience is TOO big in Florida?
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro The look of incredulity on Romney's face was priceless when Huckabee was talking about building two lanes of highway from Bangor to Miami to stimulate the economy (to give people jobs). That look on Romney's face said, "Buddy, are you serious?" Particularly after Romney showed his handle on economics and went into the weeds comparing Bush's plan to his own.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain admitted, “I don’t know all the answers" but promised to surround himself "with the best economic advisers.” The core of his message: “Pro-growth, less spending."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
From NBC's Chuck Todd Given a chance to distance himself from the president or hug him and Romney decided to hug Bush when it comes to the economy. Reminder: Florida's primary is only open to Republicans, Republicans who like guys named Bush.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas McCain ’s mind going into tonight’s debate? His electability against the Democratic contenders.
Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced McCain to a small gathering of supporters here before the MSNBC debate, “What you’re going to do for the country is give us a nominee that is the most competitive in November, is the Democratic Party’s worst nightmare- is John McCain. That’s the worst nightmare. They’re hoping you get it wrong here in Florida. We’re going to get it right.”
Expect McCain to hit hard on the candidate from New York tonight. No, not the former mayor, the senator. Clinton wants to raise the white flag and surrender in Iraq…We will not surrender, my friends. The strategy is succeeding. We’re not going to have for the first time a major candidate in history declare surrender. That’s not gonna happen on my watch. It’s not going to happen. And that’s going to be a big issue in this debate. We have succeeded and we can win. We’re not going to let Senator Clinton snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That’s not going to happen. We will never waive the white flag to Al Qaida and surrender, my friends.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney raised expectations of his outcome in Florida and previewed tonight's debate at a rally here tonight.
"Tonight I predict that most of the guns will be aimed at me," he said, adding, "If they're shooting at me, that's for good reason, because we are going to win Florida."
Invoking widespread concerns about the nation's long-term economy, Romney used the chance to say, "At a time like this I believe it's essential to have someone who's actually had a job in the real economy."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama reprised his attacks on the war, saying Clinton didn't read the National Intelligence Estimate, hasn't apologized for her vote on the war and that leadership is about judgment and learning from mistakes
These attacks aren't new but significant when put in context of the radio ad out here as well, in which an announcer says Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected. And he also now has no issues with using her name
“As a candidate I know I'm running to be commander in chief,” Obama said. “To ensure our security and keep the sacred trust with those we serve. There is no responsibility I take more seriously and no judgment more important than to put our troops in harm’s way. … I will act in proper regard for the costs and consequence of actions based on the advice of military commanders and a careful review of the intelligence.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Bethany Thomas and Domenico Montanaro Stallone endorsed McCain today. "I like McCain a lot. A lot," Stallone said on Fox News. "And you know, things may change along the way, but there's something about matching the character with the script. And right now, the script that's being written and reality is pretty brutal and pretty hard-edged like a rough action film, and you need somebody who's been in that to deal with it."
McCain said in response, "I'm going to Philadelphia and running up the steps."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton stayed out of trouble this morning, as he admitted feeling the effects of a marathon town hall meeting late last night. But he did get some helpful advice from a voter who weighed in on the contentious battle for the Democratic nomination.
"Stop taking the bait from Obama," said a woman voter, adding that she didn't want to see more bickering. "I know that when he says something she feels like she needs to reply. I think she just needs to say, this is bait, we don't need the bait, we need the issue."
"That's pretty good advice," Clinton said, to laughter. "You know, that's probably good advice for me, too," he added, generating an even louder audience reaction. Clinton said that he's found that campaigning for her is harder than it campaigning for himself. ""When I was running I didn't give a rip what anybody said about me," he said. "It's weird, you know, but you love somebody you think they'd be good, [it's] harder. But I think that's good advice."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney's campaign launched another new ad in Florida. Instead of taking shots at rivals McCain or Giuliani , who are both making hard plays for the state, Romney is putting forth a positive message in his latest TV spot.
Drawing on glowing quotes from a handful of conservative media outlets, the ad begins with one that asserts the economy is the most important issue -- a boon to Romney, especially given recent instability in the market.
He even sneaks in a mention from the Boston Globe, a paper that's been none too kind to the former Massachusetts governor, which lauds him for being "at his best in crisis mode."
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller LAURENS, S.C. -- Following a meet-and-greet at the Giant Burger here, Edwards lamented Congress' compromise with President George Bush on the economic stimulus package.
"The Congress needs to stand its ground," he said. "They need to insist on unemployment insurance modernization because otherwise we're going to have thousands and thousands of families across this country who don't get the unemployment help that they need."
Edwards and his rivals, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton , have all released their own economic stimulus plans. Republican candidates have also released plans. Edwards said the plans being discussed in Washington are "another example of Washington deserting working people and the middle class."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Michelle Obama talked about women's issues and early child care at an event here this afternoon in an effort to woo that all-important women's bloc. The dust up between Bill Clinton and her husband didn't come up. But as she was speaking with moms on the campus of the University of South Carolina, an e-mail went out under her name asking supporters to chip in because of this recent back and forth with the former president. Here's part of that fundraising e-mail:
We knew getting into this race that Barack would be competing with Senator Clinton and President Clinton at the same time.
We expected that Bill Clinton would tout his record from the nineties and talk about Hillary's role in his past success. That's a fair approach and a challenge we are prepared to face.
What we didn't expect, at least not from our fellow Democrats, are the win-at-all-costs tactics we've seen recently. We didn't expect misleading accusations that willfully distort Barack's record.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Giuliani said that no matter the outcome in Florida Tuesday, he will continue to campaign for the Republican nomination.
“I’m gonna continue my campaign. I have no plans to end my campaign,” Giuliani told reporters when asked whether he would continue the campaign if he did not win the Jan. 29 primary. “Of course, I anticipate winning in Florida because I don’t go into a campaign anticipating losing.
“And I have no reason not to anticipate winning,” he continued. “We’re very competitive. In some polls it’s very, very close. In some polls, we even had a poll where we are first. We’ve been second to Mitt Romney, second to John McCain. So we think we’re in good shape here.”
Giuliani said it was not a mistake to skip the early states, even as polls showed him trailing in third in Florida, where he had a healthy lead over the summer.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Mike Huckabee , presidential candidate and fitness enthusiast, sprinted to a last-minute victory in snowy Iowa. Three weeks later, and 70 degrees warmer, the embattled one-time frontrunner is still running hard.
On the beach, that is.
Far from the frigid climes of Des Moines, the fitness-conscious governor did a five-mile jog along Ft. Lauderdale's AIA beachfront to clear his head for tonight's MSNBC debate in Boca Raton. Trailed by three carfuls of photographers, reporters and irate Ft. Lauderdale bicycle cops, Huckabee was greeted with occasional cheers of recognition from beachgoers -- whose wardrobes were dramatically dissimilar from the bundled-up homeschooling advocates he's often greeted in more northern climes.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
“I believe the voters of New York will send another hard-working Republican to Congress in 2008," writes NRCC chairman Tom Cole in a statement. "The NRCC will be will be working with local Republicans to field a candidate who will continue to represent the interests of New York’s 25th Congressional District.”
From NBC's Bethany Thomas McCain held a town hall here with about 600 people. Fresh off of a McCain in his own state of South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham introduced McCain, “I’m very proud of my state. The people of SC turned out in large numbers and John McCain won…Remember when you go in and vote, you are voting for the commander in chief of a nation at war.”
McCain hit on his regular talking points of the economy and fighting radical Islamic extremism before turning the microphone over to questions. The crowd- a large number of them retirees- was very eager to ask questions. So eager that McCain had to tell a few several different times to sit down and let him finish his answer on a previous question.
One woman pandered to McCain’s age of 71 years old when asking about social security. She said, “You hear, 50 is the new 40, 60 is the new 50 and when Reagan was elected he was 69 and that was almost 30 years ago, which means you’re actually only 60.” McCain responded, “Thank you for that new math on my age. I need to take you with me wherever I go. I am very interested in that formula. Thank you. I would very much like to use that.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Giuliani’s deputy campaign manager for operations is no longer working full-time for the campaign, NBC News/National Journal has learned.
Veteran Republican operative Rick Ahearn is now working as a volunteer, part-time consultant for the campaign, officials said. He is now helping specifically with logistical debate preparation but not involved in day-to-day event planning.
Ahearn, who was working advance for Ronald Reagan on the day he was shot in Washington, D.C. in 1981, had been running the advance teams for Giuliani events. Sources said Ahearn stopped working full-time after the New Hampshire primaries, at the time senior campaign aides were asked to work without pay.
“Rick Ahearn continues to be a valued member of the Giuliani team,” campaign spokeswoman Maria Comella said. “He is working on a volunteer basis because of his commitments to the Mayor and this campaign.” An e-mail request to Ahearn for comment was not returned.
Sources also said the campaign has been doing less advance work in recent weeks in Florida, because of budget cuts and a growing number of smaller rallies throughout the state.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Romney leads McCain 30-26 in Florida, according to a new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll out today. Giuliani is third at 18 and Huckabee is fourth at 13. Romney's lead is bolstered by a 6-point lead among older voters and a 7-point lead among men. Those are groups that helped McCain in South Carolina. Just 10% say they're undecided. Romney also leads across most of the state with his widest margin, 10%, coming in the Southwestern part of the state.
Clinton is preferred by FL voters 47-25; Edwards gets 16%. But the Democratic primary is a beauty contest as the DNC stripped Florida of all of its delegates and the candidates have signed pledges not to campaign there.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain with the mo’: There's still no front-runner in the GOP contest, but there is a candidate in the “momentum slot.” Every one in the field -- even a candidate who just dropped out -- has spent time here. It's kind of like being in third place in a NASCAR race: You've got plenty of opportunity to take the lead, and can even do it for a lap or two, but the ideal is to sit back and wait for the opportunity to draft. McCain is in this “momentum slot,” just one win away from truly becoming the front-runner. And don't think Romney and Giuliani don't know this. Both campaigns will privately admit that neither will be the nominee without winning Florida. Romney could win outright here, setting up a long-term delegate showdown with McCain; he’d likely have the upper hand in this case thanks to his bottomless pockets. If Giuliani wins, the race will be muddied up even longer.
*** Desperation is in the air: As a result, look for a number of conservative shots to be taken at McCain in the debate. Romney will try to reinforce the criticism that, at the end of the day, McCain won't always do what's in the best interest of the party. Of course, that criticism from some on the right is what makes McCain so potentially electable. He may appeal to independents in the general election. But it makes for a messy primary fight. As for Rudy, he has no choice but to be aggressive in the debate. His chances for the Republican nomination are dropping like a rock. He needs a Florida win just to stay in the game and muddy up the race enough to give himself a shot. A Giuliani win puts the GOP race back to square one with 3 1/2 candidates left vying for the actual nomination -- the half being Huckabee. The stakes have never been higher. Desperation is in the air. All of the candidates desperately need a win in Florida, and all of them need to make a mark tonight.
*** What happens if Rudy finishes third? By the way, a Miami Herald poll has Rudy in third. It has McCain leading Romney, 25%-23%, with Giuliani and Huck tied at 15%. So if Rudy finishes a distant third, would he really keep going and risk the embarrassment of losing his home state on February 5? A new Mason-Dixon Florida poll comes out at noon today, and look for it here and on MSNBC. Speaking of polls…: A new L.A. Times/Bloomberg survey finds Clinton holding a solid (yet dwindling) lead nationally over Obama, 42%-33%. "John Edwards of North Carolina drew the support of 11% of Democratic respondents. When asked for whom they would vote if their first choice dropped out, slightly more Edwards voters leaned toward Clinton than toward Obama, the poll found.” More: In the GOP contest, the survey found that 22% of likely Republican voters preferred McCain, 18% backed Huckabee and about the same proportion -- 17% -- chose Romney. Because of the poll's margin of error, the differences among these three candidates are not statistically meaningful." A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll comes out at 6:30 pm ET on NBC Nightly News and msnbc.com. Barack returns fire: After the Clinton campaign, in a South Carolina radio ad, attacked Obama over his comments on Ronald Reagan, Obama has now responded with his own radio ad -- and it uses the narrative that the GOP is gearing up to deploy in a general election if Clinton becomes the nominee. “Hillary Clinton will say anything to get elected,” the ad says. Our question: By responding - even with a counterpunch - does Obama risk being portrayed as just another politician? Then again, Obama risks a lot more by not responding. Of course, this is just a radio spat - we're still waiting for the first real meaningful TV negative ad exchange... We're guessing we won't see that until after Feb. 5... If the race gets fought in a smaller group of states, say Ohio and Texas?
*** Back to Carolina: After spending the past couple of days in February 5 states, Clinton returns to South Carolina, giving a speech later this morning on the economy in Greenville. Lost in the furious back-and-forths overs Reagan, Rezko, and the rest of Monday’s debate was Clinton’s decision to bypass the state for two days -- and in the process, concede (ever so slightly) the first contest with a sizable African-American population. Even in those days when it looked like she might lose New Hampshire, and thus needed to focus on February 5, few thought she’d skip South Carolina due to the importance of the African-American vote in a general election. Of course, she’s back in the state, and Bill picked up the slack for her while she was gone. But ask yourself this: How would Iowans have received the news that three precious days before the caucuses, a candidate had decided to campaign in New Hampshire instead?
*** On the trail: Before tonight’s debate, Giuliani holds a rally in Boca Raton before the debate (1:00 pm ET), as does Romney (6:45 pm ET). On the Dem side, Edwards and Obama also are in South Carolina: Edwards hits Greenwood and Seneca, while Obama visits Kingstree, Beaufort, and North Charleston. And Michelle is in Cheraw, Columbia, and Charleston.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 2 days
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The Palm Beach Post previews the GOP debate in Boca Raton, FL. “Proving they are presidential material will be no small task for the five Republican candidates facing off in tonight's Florida Atlantic University debate. They'll need poise, wit and charm. They'll need to address regional issues such as property taxes and property insurance. And they'll be pressured to demonstrate that they not only can win Florida's primary Tuesday but also can defeat the Democratic nominee in November.”
“And, though the debate's MSNBC anchors may wish otherwise, the candidates also should try to steer clear of the intense and personal sparring that took place Sunday night between Democratic presidential contenders Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, one political analyst advised. ‘Republican voters don't want to see that in their debate,’ said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political science professor. ‘This state's Republicans want to hear about tax relief. They want to hear about controlled spending. They want to hear about security to a certain extent. But they really want somebody who looks presidential and can get the job done.’”
Obama leads Clinton in South Carolina, 37%-27%, according to a poll by Ron Lester & Associates, commissioned by Ebony and Jet Magazines . Edwards is third with 15%. Twenty-two percent say they are undecided. Among black voters, Obama holds a commanding 53%-21% lead; even among black women, Obama leads 2-to-1. Among single, black mothers, however, his lead over Clinton is thinner, 35%-32%. Among all voters, Obama was seen as most “honest and trustworthy” and Clinton is viewed as having the “best experience.”
The Washington Post notes the back-and-forth on radio in South Carolina between the Clinton and Obama camps. And it quotes new Obama supporter, Sen. Pat Leahy, saying the former president "is not helping anyone" with his shots at Obama. Adds another senator, who is neutral in the primary. "I'm not underestimating that this could be divisive, but I think both camps know how important this is, that it doesn't go beyond repair," said Sen. Mary Landrieu (La.), the most vulnerable Democrat up for reelection next year, who is unaligned.
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NBC/NJ’s Anburajan notes that the Obama campaign is up with TV ads in February 5 states. The campaign says they are their first ads to air in states like Arizona, California Connecticut, Tennessee, and New Mexico. They are also targeting the southern states of Georgia, Alabama, and Delaware. The ads are in addition to a national cable buy on CNN and MSNBC. Notably, they are not yet airing ads in New York City or Boston areas - which are expensive media markets but also delegate-rich areas. Per a staffer, since the campaign bought extensively in the Boston market before the New Hampshire primary, they hope to ride off those ad buys for a while before purchasing in the area again. As the staffer put it, "It's incredibly expensive."
A new Miami Herald poll shows that “McCain is narrowly leading the Republican field [in Florida] with 25 percent of the vote, followed by Romney with 23 percent… Giuliani and Huckabee each got 15 percent.” More: With his poll numbers slipping back home in the Northeast as well, Giuliani's campaign is likely to collapse if he can't turn it around in the five days left before Florida's Jan. 29 vote, the final gateway before a blitz of primaries around the nation that could sew up the race. 'He may be running for president, but with these numbers he wouldn't be elected governor of Florida,' said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, whose firm conducted the survey with Democratic pollsters Schroth, Eldon & Associates. Alluding to the timeworn song, Conway added: `If he can't make it there in Florida, he can't make it anywhere.'” Washington Post frames the race in Florida as a two-person contest between McCain and Romney. Deju vu all over again? Nine months ago, wasn't this a Romney-McCain fight? And lo and behold, after more twists and turns than any GOP nomination fight in history, we're back to the future. Our head is spinning. Washington Post : "Not all of the New York transplants who have come out to see Giuliani in Florida are Republicans. His supporters here include Democrats, who helped propel him to large margins of victory in his mayoral races but who are ineligible to cast a ballot in Florida's primary, which is restricted to registered Republicans." Florida-centric is Rudy's campaign now? He's got an ad featuring a hurricane.
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GIULIANI: The New York Times notes the phenomenon that we've been watching as well: Wherever Rudy spends a lot of time, his numbers begin to go down. That's what happened in New Hampshire in October and November, when he made his initial effort in the state. And that's apparently what's happening now in Florida. The Chicago Tribune still sees Giuliani's problems as twofold. "Analysts blame a single-minded campaign built on a strategy custom-tailored for the last election: appealing to the national security concerns of a terrorism-shocked nation. At the same time, they say, Giuliani has failed to resolve the incompatibility of an urban candidate who is pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights and pro-gun control with his party's conservative and Christian base.”
“Giuliani's history-defying strategy of downplaying the early contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and other states-where he has placed sixth, fourth and sixth, respectively, sometimes even trailing Texas Rep. Ron Paul-has delivered a once-mighty candidate to the Sunshine State saddled with a diminished national image. pulling the plug on his flagging presidential campaign, but he is pulling his punches - a strategy that may help ensure he has a life to go back to if he has to bow out of the race.”
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That New Hampshire recount took place and found little change. In a $27,000 Kucinich-paid recount, “Clinton dropped 25 votes, to 48,940; Obama also dropped, by 7 votes to 38,408.” CLINTON: After watching Obama roll out a fairly big-name endorsement almost daily for the past two weeks, Clinton finally has a big one of her own : Pennsylvania's Ed Rendell, who was DNC Chair during Clinton's second term. With Delaware and New Jersey coming up on Feb. 5 and with the need for more money, Rendell's get is a big one for Clinton. The other big name in Pennsylvania is Casey; and it's rare a Bob Casey and Rendell are on the same side of a Dem primary fight. Opening for Obama?
The AP has a good rundown of the 24 governors who have endorsed presidential candidates in either party. Boston Globe looks at the Bill factor and notes some Dems wish he would tone it down a bit. "Bill Clinton is unapologetic about jumping into the game. Yesterday, he bristled at the Obama camp's criticism of his role and lashed out at the media for fixating on race. Clinton fans who have come out to see him in South Carolina - where he has emerged as primary spokesman for his wife's campaign - say they believe he is acting the way any husband would if his wife's career was on the line. Hillary Clinton made much the same argument during Monday night's contentious debate with Obama, saying, ‘I think we both have very passionate and committed spouses who stand up for us.’”
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KINGSTREE, SC -- Bill Clinton started an event here tonight by saying that one of the great things about being out of office is you "can say whatever's on your mind." He's certainly done so in recent weeks, and continued that today as he fought back against charges from an Obama supporter about his wife's campaign tactics.
After a nearly two-hour-long event at Hugee's Restaurant in Charleston, CNN reporter Jessica Yellin asked Clinton as he was leaving about comments from former South Carolina Democratic chair Dick Harpootlian, an Obama backer. Harpootlian decried supporters of Clinton raising the issue of Obama's drug use, and talked about a focus on race. He also criticized the former president's comments claiming that the Las Vegas culinary union was intimidating casino workers who supported Clinton in Nevada, and said generally that the tactics of the campaign were similar to those of Republican strategist Lee Atwater.
Clinton fought back on some of the charges, but more broadly said that some of the "rhetoric is getting a little carried away." He then focused on the media. "You sat through this whole meeting. Not one, single solitary soul asked me about this. And they never do," he said. "[The Obama campaign is] feeding you this because they know this is what you want... They just spin you up on this, and you happily go along."
Asked by another reporter if he thought the Obama campaign was making an issue of race, Clinton grew more aggravated. "Harpootlian calls me Lee Atwater, and I spent all my life fighting those people," he said. "He doesn't care what happens. He just knows he can call you a name, and you guys will cover it."
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From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton , trailing Obama by a wide margin in South Carolina, began airing a negative radio ad in the state that criticizes the Illinois senator for recent statements he made about Ronald Reagan .
“In her newest negative, dishonest attack, Clinton claims that Obama praised Republican ideas apparently in an attempt to obscure her record of voting for Republican ideas like bankruptcy, NAFTA and, of course, the war in Iraq," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said in a statement. "That fact that Hillary Clinton has praised Ronald Reagan and supported some of the very worst Republican ideas just underscores that she will say or do anything to get elected.”
Below is the transcript for the ad, which is tracked by a deep-voiced man with a southern twang:
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From NBC’s Lee Cowan
It is a morning ritual practiced a lot recently in the days before a primary or caucus.
This morning was Barack Obama ’s turn for the “round robin” -- a head-spinning back-to-back series of appearances on Good Morning America, the Today Show, The Early Show and CNBC.
It was remarkable only for this: the senator’s demeanor when he walked in. After a long day and a short night, he appeared crisp as ever -- newspapers in hand. He only skimmed the stories about himself -- instead he seemed to focus more on the business pages -- and the international sections.
Aides buzzed around him, a microphone was clipped to his lapel and earpiece to his shirt collar. A make-up person dusted powder across his eyes and nose -- and yet his focus was never broken. He read the paper as if he had all the time in the world -- not that the world was about to spend its’ time watching him.
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From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani is taking his tax policy to Congress, with the help of some supporters and other friends on Capitol Hill.
Rep. David Dreier and Sen. Kit Bond , along with a group of other lawmakers, will introduce the tax plan Giuliani has been advocating today in Congress. The group even includes a couple of lawmakers who haven’t backed Giuliani -- Reps. Eric Cantor and Wally Herger .
The plan would simplify tax filing to give a standard income-based tax liability -- 10 percent for people making less than $40,000; 15 percent for incomes between $40,000 and $150,000 and 30 percent for higher incomes. Giuliani has said this system would allow tax filing to be completed on one piece of paper.
It would also repeal the estate tax and reduce the corporate tax by 25 percent, as well as other tax reductions he has been advocating since the New Hampshire primary. The health care deductions Giuliani has stressed are also included.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Whether or not that is just a "pretext," as critics say, Clinton is seriously considering expanding a private fundraiser into a public event.
Florida is generally considered to be better turf for Clinton than Obama, and some people believe Clinton campaign is looking for an excuse to campaign there (even though the Obama campaign says it consulted the South Carolina Democratic Party before running the cable ad).
The leading Democratic candidates had pledged to bypass Florida -- except for private fundraising -- because the state jumped the party's official primary calendar rules.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Michael Bloomberg heads to DC later today to give a speech on the economy. His office released prepared text of his remarks. As you'll read, Bloomberg doesn't mince words when it comes to Washington and Congress' attempts to stimulate the economy.
"From where I sit, having spent 35 years in the private sector, the debate in Washington is missing the point.
“Tax rebates, more generous unemployment benefits, home heating oil credits- these measures could modestly benefit Americans, and there is some value in that. Cutting taxes and increasing spending to stimulate demand is the standard Keynesian response. But there’s just one problem -- it’s not going to make much of a difference, because we’ve already been running huge deficits.
“John F. Kennedy told us, ‘The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.’ That’s what many of us in this room did. We used the good times to save for the future and pay down debt. And when the storm clouds started gathering last year, we tightened our belts. In New York, we put $2.5 billion into a trust fund, beginning in 2006. Last year, we began cutting agency spending by 2.5 percent and we instituted a hiring freeze. But in Washington, they did exactly the opposite.
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Michelle Obama introduced the crowd to her husband, providing a robust defense of the attacks made against him.
"You don't measure character when everybody is looking, you measure it by what people do in the shadows when no one is watching. And the thing that I want everybody in this country to understand about Barack is he was doing a lot of the work in the shadows. So this inexperience that folks are talking about comes from the fact that you don't know this man, you don't know what he's done because he hasn't been out there selling himself," she said.
Running through his record in Illinois, Mrs. Obama said that no one wants to talk about the work her husband did in the "shadows" in the state Senate there. "It's much easier to focus on a few present votes rather than focusing on all the hard work that Barack has done for regular people. Work than no other front-runner in this race can claim," she said.
She claimed that she and her husband were unfazed by the attacks against them because they had faced them before. "You know what they said about Barack in Illinois: They said he was too young; they said he was too inexperienced; they said that hey couldn't raise the money; they said that he couldn't build a political organization to outmatch the might of an Illinois family political dynasty. Does this sound familiar? They said he was too black. They said he wasn't black enough. They said there was no way that white folks from downstate would vote for a guy named Barack Obama. So you will have to forgive us if we are not made when we hear this because we've heard it all before," she told the crowd.
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Duncan Hunter , who ended his presidential bid last weekend, just issued this statement: “I got to know
Governor Huckabee well on the campaign trail. Of the remaining candidates, I feel that he is strongly committed to strengthening national defense, constructing the border fence and meeting the challenge of China’s emergence as a military superpower that is taking large portions of America’s industrial base.
Hunter continued, "Mike Huckabee is a man of outstanding character and integrity. I saw that character over the last year of campaigning and was greatly impressed. The other Republican candidates have many strengths and I wish them all well. My personal choice is Mike Huckabee."
From NBC’s Christina Jamison Clinton . He will appear with her later today in Philadelphia.
From NBC’s Ron Allen Romney 's been saying a lot lately that the nation needs someone in charge who has some business experience. Romney, of course, spent 25 years as a consultant and turnaround artist rejuvenating struggling companies, and making a fortune estimated at some $350 million dollars.
Romney doesn't like questions about his wealth, especially about how much of it he has loaned himself -- $17.5 million as of last October, the last public reporting period, and before the run of primaries and caucuses began.
But lately, he has shown signs money's on his mind. A week or so ago, he said he wouldn't be spending and investing so much of his own money if he wasn't determined to win, and convinced he can fix Washinton's problems. Yesterday, while talking about the plunging stock market, he said that if his assets weren't in a blind trust, he'd be looking to buy.
And the look on his face and the sound of his voice suggested he really knew what he was talking about. Makes you wonder how much he might be making.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** Obama’s tough press day: Rezko is EVERYWHERE today. The Clinton campaign always wondered what it would take for the media to cover this story nationally. Well, have the candidate utter the words "slum lord" in a debate and voila. It's easily Obama's worst free press day of the campaign. It’s also a bit ironic, too, given that the Clintons have had many more problematic donors than Obama (Hsu, Gupta, Chung, Denise Rich, those donations to the Clinton Library). Then again, the point of the Clintons pushing Rezko is to make Obama look like just another politician who got caught up with a questionable donor. And if the Clintons can prove Obama's no better than them then they can beat him on other points. It’s also worth asking why Rezko, and not Wal-Mart, is getting all the play today. The Clintons -- at least in the short term -- won the spin war after a debate that looked like a draw to us. Meanwhile, the Obama folks are pushing the two Clintons vs. one Obama story, and it's getting its share of pickup. But nothing like Rezko today.
*** Hill’s reliance on Bill: Speaking of Bill Clinton, Maureen Dowd has a C.W.-setting column today on the idea that Hillary's relying so much on Bill. Is it good for the first potential woman president to be relying on her husband so much to do the campaign dirty work? Her decision to leave South Carolina and leave it to Bill to keep Obama honest in the state shows the enormous advantage the two of them have right now on the trail. But is this reliance on Bill good for Hillary's long term, particularly if she ends up the nominee? And is anyone looking at the Clinton-vs.-Obama war and concluding that it might be good for Obama should he become the nominee (because it toughens him up, etc.) but bad for Clinton should she become the nominee (because of the Bill stuff and the fact Obama's criticisms will end up used by the GOP)?
*** Adios, Fred: After finishing third in Iowa, sixth in New Hampshire, and third in South Carolina, Fred Thompson dropped out of the GOP race yesterday. “I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States,” he said in a statement. “I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people." When political scientists, pundits, and future candidates look back on Fred’s candidacy, they will point to the three-month gap from June 1 (when he first created his “testing the waters” committee) to September 5 (when he officially got into the race). During that time, political opponents and the press were able to create several negative impressions of Thompson (lazy, old, worked for pro-choice groups), and the political limbo made it difficult for him to fight back. Thompson always had a lot of upside -- we particularly remember a focus group among GOP voters in Richmond, VA, who were very receptive to his candidacy -- but he never seized it.
*** No money, mo’ problems: Huckabee’s lack of money and organization is finally catching up to win. To put it simply, he’s running of out of money. Some aides are now working for free; the campaign is no longer providing transportation for the traveling press; and now the New York Times is reporting that he won’t be running TV ads in Florida. Question: If he can’t run ads in Florida, how will he compete on Tsunami Tuesday? That said, every Republican candidate -- sans Romney -- seems to have some issue with money. While McCain is proving he can raise it again (picking up a cool million yesterday), he still had to leave the Florida campaign trail to go to New York for an event, which is not ideal. (By the way, why isn’t McCain having more success over the internet?) And remember that Giuliani also cut staff payroll to stay alive. Romney's the only guy without money troubles -- unless you count the stock market, which may be serving as a double hit on the Romney sons’ inheritance since dad is spending so much of his own dough on the campaign.
*** On the trail: Continuing her February 5 journey, Clinton raises money in Hackensack, NJ and holds rallies there and in North Bergen, NJ; Edwards, in South Carolina, rallies in Bennettsville, Lancaster, and Gaffney; Giuliani campaigns in Florida, hitting Estero and Naples; Huckabee attends an evening rally in Fort Lauderdale, FL; McCain, also in Florida, has an economic roundtable in Orlando; Obama is in South Carolina, stumping in Rock Hill, Sumter, and Dillon; and Romney is in Florida, where he campaigns in Sarasota and Tampa. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns for his in South Carolina, visiting Charleston, Kingstree, and Myrtle Beach.
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USA Today looks at Bill’s role in the campaign. "Far from keeping the former president off the hustings, Hillary Clinton's campaign has picked up his pace. As the New York senator left South Carolina to make campaign appearances in states that will hold contests Feb. 5, her husband arrived to serve as his wife's surrogate in chief. Even as he spoke here, at an event hastily organized overnight, aides scurried to set up a schedule that will take him to the state's coastal areas today. Hillary Clinton is not due back in South Carolina until Thursday, two days before the Democratic primary."
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck todd offers his first read on the increasing scrutiny of Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama. Maureen Dowd weighs in on the Bill-Hill tag-team, and her conclusion isn’t too surprising: “It’s odd that the first woman with a shot at becoming president is so openly dependent on her husband to drag her over the finish line. She handed over South Carolina to him, knowing that her support here is largely derivative.
The New York Daily News : “Move over, Hatfields and McCoys. That blood feud is looking downright civil compared with the trash talk in the Democratic duel between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, which took on the ring of schoolyard taunts the day after a debate melee in Myrtle Beach, S.C.”
The New York Post : “Dem rivals’ fightin’ words: Hill slams Barack as big bully.” Clinton said Obama “clearly came last night looking for a fight” at the debate. She called him “determined,” said “he telegraphed it” and “we see where the words and actions don't match." Obama fumed to reporters: "I think it's very clear that Senator Clinton . . . and the president have been spending the last month attacking me in ways that are not accurate." CONTINUED >>
Time looks at how Clinton is avoiding and competing in S.C. at the same time. "As the race between Clinton and Obama has tightened and become increasingly heated, Bill Clinton has spent more and more time on the trail for his wife - often to mixed reviews. But their South Carolina strategy carries a one-two punch. By not actively campaigning here for most of this week, Clinton is essentially ceding the state to Obama, who, on the strength of the black vote, is ahead here by 10.5 percentage points, according to an average of South Carolina polls by Real Clear Politics. Not making a real effort here allows her to discount an Obama win as uncontested, and hence less meaningful. But by leaving the state to her husband, who won two presidential contests here, she makes it impossible for Obama to relax or focus his energies elsewhere."
Usher and actress Kerry Washington appeared with Obama in South Carolina yesterday. The Columbia State looks at the potential impact and pitfalls of the youth vote. “The question facing Obama, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina this week is whether these enthusiastic young voters will show up in large enough numbers Saturday to decide the state’s Democratic primary. The stakes are high for the candidate who can mobilize the 612,000 eligible S.C. voters younger than 29.”
The State also looks at electability. “After eight years of being shut out, state Democrats say they are choosing candidates based on who’s best to win the White House in November.” A Charleston state senator raised questions earlier in the cycle about Obama’s potential, “but Clinton and her husband were divisive figures during the Clinton presidency. Many worry she will alienate moderate or independent voters.” Edwards tries to claim the mantle but only select polls have shown him faring better than both his rivals against the Republicans.
The Boston Globe : “[T]he faltering economy is fast surpassing national security as the cutting issue in next week's primary, when GOP voters could clear up the blurred contest for the party's nomination.” Boston Globe sees Florida as a three-man race now. “Thompson dropped out of the Republican presidential contest yesterday, while Mike Huckabee scaled back his campaign in Florida, shrinking the field for Tuesday's crucial primary to a fight for the top spot among Senator John McCain of Arizona, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani.”
GIULIANI: “Giuliani is fishing for a tidal wave of Florida votes -- by claiming he's more interested in tackling the hurricane-related insurance crisis here than John McCain or Mitt Romney,” the New York Post writes. MCCAIN: “McCain has led in some recent Florida polls, but the vote here will be a particular test for the Arizona senator, who is hoping to build on his close victory Saturday in South Carolina. Florida will be not only the largest state yet to vote - with a demographic diversity foreshadowing the range of states voting on Feb. 5 - but also the biggest test of McCain's appeal to a Republican Party he has never fully won over.”
The Washington Post examines Clinton's post-South Carolina strategy, which has already begun. The campaign is focused on four base Feb. 5 states: Calif., N.Y., N.J. and Arkansas. "The logic seems simple: She represents New York in the Senate, and New Jersey is next door; she was the first lady of Arkansas for a decade; and California will be the biggest prize when 22 states vote on Feb. 5. But in a system that awards delegates by congressional district, with some worth more than others, the calculation is far from straightforward, and Clinton backers fear that the setup could boost Sen. Barack Obama if he fares well in populous corners of key states."
More: "Obama is making similar decisions. Although he has opened offices in all 22 states holding contests on Feb. 5, he is zeroing in on specific voter groups in which he believes he has an inherent advantage over Clinton. In New Jersey, one of his targets is independent voters. In Georgia and Alabama, he is seeking to replicate his South Carolina strategy by targeting African Americans."
Also: "The Obama campaign's heavy emphasis on grass-roots organizing, which served it so well in Iowa, has led it to target the six states that will hold caucuses rather than primaries on Feb. 5. These are typically lightly attended affairs, but they could deliver big returns if Obama can follow his Iowa model of identifying a pool of supporters, including nontraditional participants such as college students and independents, and methodically turning them out.”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Clinton picked up the endorsement of the 27,000-member United Farm Workers union Tuesday and said she would return to delegate-heavy California "many, many" times to campaign before February 5, NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones notes. UFW President Arturo Rodriguez, to shouts of “the union slogan "Si se puede” ("Yes we can"), cited Clinton’s experience and her goal of universal healthcare as the reason for endorsing her.
"We have had a chance over the last few months to listen to all the candidates, but it was a unanimous decision among the leadership of the farm worker movement to support the person that we felt was the strongest person and the person with the most experience to take on the task of being president of the United States of America," he said. "When we asked Sen. Clinton to help us in terms of ensuring that farm workers had the rights to citizenship here in this country, she fought with us."
The New York Times’ Healy adds that “Clinton does not usually speak in Spanish as she makes overtures to Hispanic voters, and now we have evidence of why… Clinton repeatedly heard the crowd chant ‘Si se puede’ - a signature political phrase at Hispanic rallies that translates to ‘Yes, It Can Be Done!’ Politicians usually join in, but Mrs. Clinton refrained from doing so on one, two, and then three occasions; she simply nodded and smiled and said nothing.”
“Finally, as the crowd began shouting the phrase again, Mrs. Clinton bellowed into her microphone, ‘Si se pueda is right!’ Several colleagues who speak better Spanish than I do say that ‘pueda’ (as opposed to ‘puede’) has meaning in other contexts, but it does not really make sense in this one. In any event, the crowd was chanting ‘si se puede.’ The audience made no noticeable fuss over Mrs. Clinton’s use of ‘pueda,’ although they stopped chanting sooner afterward.”
CONTINUED >>
HUCKABEE: No one can run lean and mean as well as Huckabee, and now he's going to have to do it again. “Before he won the Iowa Republican caucuses, Mike Huckabee told voters that sending him to victory would forever debunk the conventional wisdom that money could decide a presidential race,” the New York Times writes. “On Tuesday, though, the Huckabee campaign acknowledged that its chronic shortage of money might be catching up to it.”
More: “As the Republican front-runners crisscross Florida - the race’s biggest prize yet and a state his campaign once considered essential - Mr. Huckabee is pulling back in the state. He told reporters that he did not plan to advertise in Florida, and his only campaign stops scheduled so far this week were token events at airports. To conserve cash, Ed Rollins, his top consultant, and a few other staff members have agreed to work without pay, and his campaign has stopped arranging transportation for the traveling press.”
MCCAIN: The New York Times : “Senator John McCain of Arizona scooped up $1 million for his presidential campaign on Tuesday night in the center of Rudolph W. Giuliani’s political turf, the St. Regis Hotel in Midtown Manhattan, and announced the support of former Senator Alfonse M. D’Amato and a swath of the New York Republican establishment.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times’ Nagourney looks at the economy’s impact on the presidential race. “The weakened economy and the turmoil in financial markets have helped to cement a gradual shift in emphasis in the presidential campaign to domestic issues from national security, giving the candidates an opportunity on Tuesday to spotlight economic proposals and try to convince voters that they could handle a crisis… [T]here was a consensus among all the candidates that the economy had supplanted the war as an issue and, in the process, changed the dynamics of both the Republican and Democratic contests. Mr. Romney and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York both called news conferences to talk about the issue; Mrs. Clinton’s campaign prepared an advertisement describing her economic plan. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois cited his plan for jump-starting the economy with $250 tax rebates, as he delivered an economic address at Furman University in Greenville, S.C.”
More: “Mr. Romney and Mrs. Clinton appeared best positioned to benefit from a sharp shift in voter concern from foreign affairs to the economy.”
The Washington Post , covering Obama's economic speech yesterday, notes the challenge he faces. "All the presidential campaigns are struggling to offer solutions and show concern for those affected by the bad economic news. But the shift in focus presents a particular challenge for Obama, whose campaign has been based more on his appeals to national reconciliation and post-ideological pragmatism than on the traditional, bread-and-butter Democratic platform offered by Clinton."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee's press secretary, Alice Stewart, NBC confirmed that there are some members of Huckabee's senior staff that have volunteered to continue working without pay in the run up to February 5th. Stewart said that some senior staffers along with several staff members who worked for Huckabee in early primary states have voluntarily offered to work for free so that the campaign can save money.
"We've got plenty of cash on hand to compete in the February 5th states," Stewart said, adding that the campaign raised over $250,000 at last Sunday's Virtual BBQ at Chuck Norris' ranch in Texas. But in an effort to scale back, Stewart said "there are some folks who have volunteered to stay on without pay," and there are some employees from early states that have been let go because "it's just not necessary to keep those folks on staff."
This decision was made in the past couple of days, Stewart said, and there will probably be more efforts to maintain the frugal approach that has characterized the campaign thus far. But she also emphasized that Huckabee was not pulling out of Florida and would compete there as well as in most of the states on February 5th.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro There have been some fact checks already on last night's debate, but here's another. Last night, Clinton said the following: "...[L]et me just get in here, because there are a lot of polls showing that I'm beating them higher than anybody else. I don't think that has -- I don't think, frankly, that has much to recommend this far from an election."
That came following John Edwards citing that he's the only one to beat John McCain in a CNN poll, which, by the way, as we pointed out last night, is more than a month old. (It was conducted Dec. 6-9.)
But what is behind Clinton's claim that she's "Beating them higher than anybody else?" "A lot of polls?" What polls are they citing? Here are the most recent reliable ones that rebut that claim.
USA Today/Gallup (Jan. 10-12): Clinton does beat Huckabee 51-45, but loses to McCain 50-47. Obama , though, beats Huckabee by a WIDER margin, 53-43, but does lose to McCain 50-45.
Diageo/Hotline (Jan. 10-12): Obama BEATS McCain 43-42 and Clinton loses 48-45. And Obama down the line beats Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani by wider margins than Clinton.
Reuters/Zogby (Jan. 10-11): McCain beats Clinton 47-42. Clinton beats the other Republicans, BUT Obama beats them by wider margins. And even though McCain beats him also, it's by a narrower margin than he beats Clinton, 45-53.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Huckabee insists that it's not raining on his parade.
"The word 'free-fall' would be ludicrous at this point," he told reporters, who peppered him with questions about the state of his campaign this morning in Atlanta. "We've got great support here."
As the Arkansas governor addressed participants in Georgia's March for Life earlier, support from his stalwart base -- religious conservatives -- was evident. But although the chilly drizzle didn't deter supporters, it seemed to be an apt metaphor for his dampened campaign hopes in the wake of a disappointing second place finish the South Carolina primary. With yesterday's news that his campaign would no longer be providing transportation for its traveling press, many of the questions Huckabee fielded today asked the question: "Is the campaign sunk?"
Huckabee says that he hasn't lost momentum. "Our scrappy little army's doing pretty well out there on the battlefield," he said, adding that he remains in second place in the total delegate count in the GOP race so far.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Gabe Herman Paul her official endorsement today.
"I support Ron Paul for president because we share the same goal, that of overturning Roe v. Wade. He has never wavered on the issue of being pro-life and has a voting record to prove it. He understands the importance of civil liberties for all, including the unborn," she said at a press conference in Washington this morning.
Paul accepted the pro-life activist's endorsement, saying of abortion: "It is still one of the most crucial issues of our day that we deal with this. As much as I talk about economic liberties, and civil liberties, and trying to avoid the killing overseas, I think the issue of life is paramount."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney used the venue to promote his strength on economic issues in the face of growing concern on Wall Street.
He started his remarks by addressing today’s economic developments in Europe and Asia and how it’s translating here. He then pivoted to his now nearly trademark optimism and opportunism. “Every time I’ve seen things get scary and the markets really collapse, I put aside that fear for the moment and say, ‘Aha! Is this a buying opportunity?’ Because my experience has always been that what goes down comes back up,” he said.
And for a candidate who’s often criticized for not relating well to his audiences, here was a topic that gave him a leg up. “I almost fear for this meeting being over,” he said later, adding, “And if I were home and I didn’t have an investment in a blind trust, I’d be calling my broker and looking for an opportunity to buy.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Fred Thompson , the former Tennessee senator, just released this statement, "Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people."
Thompson's withdrawal comes after finishing a respective third, sixth and third in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan GREENVILLE, S.C. -- If anyone thought Obama needed a breather after last night’s contentious and heated Democratic debate, the candidate’s opening speech at Furman University in Greenville proved them wrong.Clinton on issue after issue from last night’s debate, using the podium to give full grievance to his charges against her in a way that the time-limited format at the debate and Clinton’s noisy interruptions did not permit.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani continued to emphasize permanent relief for the American economy, and continued to draw contrasts with McCain . But he made clear he was not going to attack the national front-runner, even as his surrogates do just that.
As bad economic news hit the nation Tuesday, Giuliani continued to call for permanent relief. “Congress and the president should do a stimulus package that is heavy on permanent measures,” he said. “There has to be some temporary measures as well, because of a balanced approach.”
Giuliani said the cuts needed to be coupled with spending reductions. “The president should announce cutbacks in agencies,” he said. “Or that each agency is gonna be looking for ways to save money -- five percent, 10 percent cutbacks.”
Giuliani also said his simplified one-page tax form would stimulate the economy by increasing compliance and cutting down on filing costs. He continued to draw contrasts with McCain on taxes and the need for a catastrophic fund -- which Giuliani has been advocating heavily in Florida and McCain has opposed. But he would not reiterate the message of his Florida state chairman, Bill McCollum, who said Monday that McCain was out of touch on the issue.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In a 20-minute press conference Tuesday morning, Hillary Clinton again called on President Bush to do something to help the economy immediately and said she plans to abide by the DNC pledge not to campaign in Florida, despite a national Obama cable ad buy, which happens to run in some Florida markets and her campaign took issue with yesterday.
On Bill Clinton, she said, "I think on both sides, our surrogates are obviously out there advocating for each of us. But this is between us. This is who's on the ballot. This is who's presenting our case to the public."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Bethany Thomas
Sen. John Warner introduced McCain, “This is a good, tough political fight and he’s in there duking it out with all the rest of them.”
Today’s federal interest rate cut came up on the stump when he hit his economy points. McCain said, “I’m sure you noticed that the Fed cut interest rates today, and I hope that that has a beneficial effect.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller CONWAY, S.C. -- Edwards was focused on two things today: his performance at last night’s debate and the economy.
“You know, between all the allegations of Hillary serving on the Wal-Mart board and Sen. Obama working for a slumlord, I was proud to represent the grown-up wing of the Democratic party last night,” he told a crowd of people seated in a peanut warehouse here.
On the economy in the short-term, Edwards suggested transitioning toward a green economy, modernizing unemployment insurance laws, creating a national home rescue fund, allowing the courts to restructure home loans and establishing a national predatory lending law. Over the long term, he said the twin goals of strengthening the middle class and lifting people out of poverty would build up the economy from its foundation. His economic stimulation plan would cost $100 billion, he said. A related issue that he said he brought up in the debate was trade.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama struggled to stay on message during last night's CNN debate, than to look for the word that Obama says defines his campaign -- or in the case of last night, the lack thereof.
How many times did Obama utter the word "hope" last night?
Twice. Yup, that's right two times, from a senator who likes to joke that he has campaign signs with the single word "hope" that don't even tell people who to vote for. And the way that Obama used the word "hope" was in stark contrast to how he talks about it on the campaign trail.
"In the last debate, Senator Clinton said she voted for it, but hoped that it wouldn't pass," Obama said of Clinton's vote on the bankruptcy bill that she had voted for in 2001.
Slightly more on message later on, Obama used the word hope to describe why he admired Bill Clinton for growing up in the south, in response to the question that some see him as the nation's "first Black president."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama was endorsed today by Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-MS), chairman of the Homeland Security Committee.
"Barack Obama had the judgment to oppose the war in Iraq from the start," Thompson in a statement, "and he will restore America's standing around the world and secure our homeland by giving our first responers the equipment and support they need."
This is the 16th red-state endorsement Obama has received, about 35 percent of his total endorsements. Thompson is African American, and blacks in Mississippi make up an estimated 37% of the total population. Mississippi holds its primary on March 11 and has 33 pledged delegates (40 total).
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli Bill Clinton said this morning that it was "maybe inevitable" that he'd become the center of attention in the Democratic race.
Clinton visited the capital city's famous Lizard's Thicket, starting a tour of the Palmetto State leading up to Saturday's Democratic primary. Taking questions after making the rounds to greet patrons, Clinton was asked about becoming a focal point.
"I thought it was maybe inevitable," he said. "But I think that there was nothing specific said that I said which was inaccurate. I try to be very careful what I say and not use too many adjectives."
He also defended his role in his wife's campaign. "I'm a good surrogate for her because, except for Chelsea, [I] know her better than anyone else personally," he said.
Asked if he felt like Obama was running against him, he responded, "I thought he was running against me in Nevada for a while when he said Republicans had most of the new ideas, challenged the conventional wisdom of the '90s. I thought we challenged the conventional wisdom of the '90s."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Christina Jamison
From NBC’s John Yang Bush's most significant event today isn't on his public schedule: A meeting this afternoon with the bipartisan congressional leadership. It was scheduled last week, so Bush can brief lawmakers on his Middle East trip. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and members of the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs committees will attend.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Obama campaign held a conference call to announce the South Carolina Truth Squad “to respond forcefully” to “the incredible distortions that are coming from the Clinton campaign in particular and our desire to set the record straight,” said former Sen. Tom Daschle , an Obama supporter, from Greenville, S.C., where Obama is expected to speak at Furman College later today.
Daschle cited that “Bill Clinton this morning again” was distorting Obama’s record on the war and what Obama had said about Republicans.
“Over and over again,” Daschle said, “we find the Clinton campaign has made an overt effort to distort his [Obama’s] record.”
The campaign also announced a hotline (877-622-6228) for supporters to call if they get robo-calls or negative mailers, which the campaign has said happened in Iowa, New Hampshire and alluded to it now taking place in South Carolina.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro The Carolina cage match : Watching last night’s Democratic debate was much like the first time you witnessed a fight at lunchtime in high school: It was exhilirating, memorable, and a bit horrifying at the same time. While it wasn’t akin the rumble scene in the rain in “The Outsiders,” it was easily the most heated debate to date. The candidates -- particularly Obama and Clinton -- were, well, angry and it got personal. Obama, in particular, seemed to have a lot he wanted to get off his chest. He began on the offense, but once Edwards got into the act, Obama was put on defensive, which we’re guessing wasn't the game plan. Of course, when you're the candidate under fire, it usually means you're ahead. And at least in South Carolina, that’s where Obama is.
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's squabbling during Monday night's Democratic debate in South Carolina. ***
Debate 101 : As we and others keep on saying, Obama has improved a lot as debater since April. Nevertheless, he consistently got caught in a debate trap by responding to every charge with an explanation. It's a stand-up thing to do, but it ends up putting him off message. And it allows for the attack to get more air time rather than the original point or message Obama meant to be heard. Clinton, by contrast, rarely answers a charge directly and instead deflects by counter-punching, which shows her discipline. Of course, that difference epitomizes their candidacies: Clinton is the disciplined political street fighter, quick to score points against the opposition; Obama, meanwhile, tries to be transparent and accountable -- even as those goals, as last night’s debate sometimes showed, aren’t always easy to achieve.
*** A more polite second half : Obama seemed to get that he got a bit too hot, because in the second part of the debate, he refused a new chance to go after Bill Clinton a second time. And in this second half, Obama was particularly strong: His answers on religion and his national security rebuttal to Clinton were very good. That strong second-half performance will blunt any potential negative backlash he received in the first part. But, overall, the campaign probably believes they showed that he's tough enough and they did want to continue to push the idea that the Clintons will say and do anything to win -- which could very well be their chief weakness. In fact, this will be the GOP narrative if Clinton wins the nomination.
*** When candidates attack : As for Clinton, she never looks good on the attack -- and she didn't last night. But because she was getting in the mud with Obama, the two neutralized each other at best. Of course, one of her goals last night was probably simply avoiding a major gaffe as she's headed out of the state and is somewhat downplaying her chances by staying out of South Carolina for three days. Another goal, as others have pointed out, might have been to bloody Obama in front of February 5th voters who were tuning in. While Obama reminded the audience that the Clintons will bend the truth to further their goals, Clinton tried to hammer home the message that Obama stands on the sidelines (those “present” votes) and isn’t as consistent as he claims he is (on Iraq and health care.) That was all new information for February 5th viewers. And will she keep it up when Clinton holds a press conference -- taking place as we publish -- in DC?
*** Edwards as Rodney King : Edwards had the easiest last night: He got to look like the above-it-all guy. That's at leaset better than being the third wheel, which to some he may ALSO have looked. When you aren't as competitive as your two opponents, it's easy to play the mediator, and he did it well. He did no damage to his favorable rating (which is generally high), but did he do enough to start climbing back above that 15% threshold he needs to keep getting delegates? On points, Edwards can call himself the winner since he got to make the easy can't-we-all just-get-along points. But the center of attention for this debate was Obama. And, ultimately, that's probably a good thing for the South Carolina front-runner.
*** The Bill Clinton factor : He's now Obama's chief challenger in South Carolina for most of this week, since candidate Clinton is doing a February 5 tour of CA., AZ, and NJ over the next two days. Short term, Bill Clinton's been an asset, but how long can candidate Clinton have her husband out there "yelling at the neighbors" for her. Does the dynastic stuff become a problem for candidate Clinton at some point the higher profile her husband takes? We've heard from quite a few GOP strategists who aren't unhappy with Bill's high profile. He's becoming less statesman-like and may just be as helpful in rallying the Republican base as some believe she will be. Still, for the primary, the use of Bill appears to be effective. Obama looked like every Republican critic of Bill Clinton over his eight years, flummoxed that he was losing to this guy.GOP musings : And while last night’s debate has placed most of the presidential focus on the Democratic side, there are some GOP developments to keep an eye on: The GOP intelligentsia is starting to come around to the idea that McCain could be their guy; Huckabee is no longer providing transportation for his traveling press and seems to be turning his attention AWAY from Florida; and Thompson is down tending to his ill mother -- he has no public schedule today.
*** On the trail : Edwards and Obama are in South Carolina. Hillary Clinton, however, is not. Her husband makes three stops on her behalf instead in Aiken, Anderson and Greenville; Edwards hosts a town hall in Conway and then appears on The Late Show with David Letterman. Obama holds four events, including two rallies, in Greenville, Greenwood, Lexington and Orangeburg. The Republicans are in Florida for the most part: Giuliani stops in at a deli in Palm Beach Gardens; Huckabee partakes in a pro-life march in Atlanta (Georgia’s a Feb. 5 state) and then raises money in Gainesville; McCain holds two rallies in Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach, then raises money in New York City; Paul is in DC; Romney stops in Boca Raton (where he meets with the Republican Jewish Coalition), then heads to Coral Springs and Naples.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 4 days
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The Columbia State's headline: “Democratic debate: At each other's throats.”
The New York Times writes, “In the most intense and personal exchange of the presidential campaign, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama assailed each other’s integrity and voting records during a televised debate on Monday in South Carolina, the site of a critical primary in five days. If the debate was full of memorable moments — Mrs. Clinton accusing Mr. Obama of associating with a ‘slum landlord,’ Mr. Obama saying he felt as if he were running against both Hillary and Bill Clinton, the two candidates talking over each other — the totality of the attacks also laid bare the ill will and competitive ferocity that has been simmering between them for weeks.”
The Washington Post : "In the debate, Clinton and Obama offered perhaps the most pointed criticisms of one another in the campaign. Obama went after Clinton during a discussion on economic stimulus by recalling his years as a community organizer in Chicago, adding: ‘While I was working on those streets watching those folks see their jobs shift overseas, you were a corporate lawyer sitting on the board at Wal-Mart.’ And he brought up Bill Clinton's campaign surrogate role by chiding, I can't tell who I'm running against sometimes.’”
The Washington Post’s Dan Balz adds in a separate piece, "The clash between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton Monday night was a debate long waiting to happen, and at the heart of it was the man who was not on stage: former president Bill Clinton. Since Obama's victory in Iowa, the Clintons have responded with a methodically aggressive campaign. With his own campaign now on the defensive, Obama came to Monday's debate determined to confront his principal rival for the Democratic presidential nomination with a cry of foul. The result was the most heated and acrimonious exchange of the long race." More on Bill: "But for now it is partly about Bill Clinton. He has emerged as more than his wife's chief surrogate. He is playing a role almost akin to that of a vice presidential candidate in a general election, leading the charge against the other party's nominee."
CONTINUED >>
With Hillary Clinton heading west for most of this week, it looks like Obama will be facing off against the OTHER Clinton in South Carolina for much of this week. "The strategic shift intensifies a new dynamic in the race: Mrs. Clinton’s campaign this week in South Carolina is essentially running Mr. Clinton against Mr. Obama. The two have been engaged in a war of words, with Mr. Clinton accusing the Obama campaign of voter coercion in the Nevada caucuses, and Mr. Obama saying on Monday that Mr. Clinton had made comments that were "not factually accurate" and that his advocacy for his wife had grown ‘pretty troubling.’” Also: “Mrs. Clinton’s advisers cautioned that she was not writing off South Carolina, which has a Democratic primary on Saturday. It is the last place where Democrats will compete before Feb. 5, when more than 20 states hold nominating contests."
The State writes, “The move could say two things: First, Clinton is not confident she has a chance to win South Carolina, where U.S. Sen. Barack Obama leads; secondly, Clinton wants to get to the Super Tuesday states, where hundreds of delegates will be up for grabs.”
The Washington Post's Robinson doesn't believe Bill Clinton's new role on the Clinton campaign is very becoming. "For Obama, it's clearly an added burden to have to fight two Clintons instead of one. But at the same time, there may be benefits in having Bill Clinton take such a high-profile role in his wife's campaign that the missteps and disappointments of the Clinton years are inevitably recalled along with the successes. Whatever the net impact, there appears to be no plan for Bill Clinton to tone it down -- not with the nomination still in doubt. The Clintons don't much like losing."
Robinson concludes, "There's a battle to be fought against an upstart challenger who has the audacity to suggest that maybe the Clinton presidency, successful as it was in many ways, didn't change the world -- and that he, given the office, could do better. Some things, I guess, just can't be allowed. Bill Clinton obviously has decided that history can wait.”
CONTINUED >>
The Chicago Tribune's Silva and Zuckman set the stage for the GOP contest that takes place one week from today: "The stakes in Florida could not be much higher. For Giuliani, who is openly pinning his hopes on winning the state, a loss could be devastating. For McCain, a victory could finally make him the undisputed front-runner of an unusually turbulent GOP field. For either Romney or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a win here offers a badly needed revival heading into Super Tuesday in two weeks."
Is Huckabee skipping Florida? It looks like it . He spent the day in a February 5 state yesterday -- Georgia. "Political observers and Huckabee's political opponents say it's all proof that he's writing off Florida, where he's not scheduled to campaign Tuesday and where his opponents appear to be out-fighting and out-spending him. Some even speculate that he's now running for a vice-presidency slot. But Huckabee said reports of his political death are as exaggerated as they are old. '’We plan no Mickey Mouse operation in Florida,' he said. But he also noted that 'no one' will have the race 'wrapped up' in Florida."
The Boston Globe looks at Romney's Florida strategy and notes: "Romney, who does not appear to have the same ready-made bloc of support as his rivals, packed his schedule with speaking engagements that include the Republican Jewish Coalition and the Latin Builders Association. He expanded his campaign operation, adding six field offices. Also, he sharpened his focus on voters' economic worries."
Clinton "will spend the next two days campaigning in Arizona, California, New Jersey and New Mexico, which vote on Feb. 5. She will begin a television advertising blitz this week in 10 states with contests on that day. She is also returning Thursday night to New York, another state with a Feb. 5 contest, for two fund-raisers, part of an effort to raise more than $15 million before the coming primaries." Meanwhile, "Obama on Monday became the first candidate to begin advertising nationally, on cable television networks. The advertisement drew criticism from the Clinton campaign, which accused its rival of breaking a pledge signed by Democratic candidates to avoid campaigning in Florida because the timing of its primary violated rules of the Democratic National Committee. David Plouffe, campaign manger for Mr. Obama, said it was impossible to buy national advertising on cable television without including Florida."
The Washington Post's Mosk looks at the cost of competing on February 5 and reports at least two '08 campaigns are contemplating buying Super Bowl ads. Fox Vice President Lou D'Ermilio said that no candidate has contacted the network about a coveted spot in the Super Bowl lineup and that only one 30-second slot remains unclaimed. ‘That doesn't mean they can't buy locally during the game, which is probably more likely,’ he said. Consultants to two Republican candidates said their media teams have discussed such a gamble, but would not allow their candidates to be mentioned in connection with the discussions, which took place during confidential strategy sessions.”
CLINTON : “Former President Clinton stands to reap around $20 million -- and will sever a politically sensitive partnership tie to Dubai -- by ending his high-profile business relationship with the investment firm of billionaire friend Ron Burkle. Mr. Clinton is negotiating to end his relationship with Mr. Burkle's Yucaipa Cos. as part of a broader effort to protect the presidential campaign of his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton, from potential conflicts of interest.”
Is this about Bill Clinton’s legacy? The Boston Globe’s Canellos writes, “In fact, all of Bill Clinton's actions since the start of his wife's campaign suggest that he is far more than just a dutiful supporter: He will do whatever is necessary to win. That has included giving up the spotlight, which must be painful for someone as addicted to attention as Bill Clinton.” More: “His tireless efforts can be read as either an honorable show of loyalty or a selfish desire to accrue more power through her.” And: “Bill Clinton needs Hillary Clinton to validate his own presidential record.”
GIULIANI : Given the precarious political position his campaign is in, this may be the last week to get Giuliani stories in print if a you are a news organization who has been working on some leads for a while. The New York Times front-pages: "Giuliani likens himself to a boxer who never takes a punch without swinging back. As mayor, he made the vengeful roundhouse an instrument of government, clipping anyone who crossed him."
More: "Giuliani was a pugilist in a city of political brawlers. But far more than his predecessors, historians and politicians say, his toughness edged toward ruthlessness and became a defining aspect of his mayoralty. One result: New York City spent at least $7 million in settling civil rights lawsuits and paying retaliatory damages during the Giuliani years."
How precarious are things for Rudy right now? Two polls out of New York yesterday showed the former New York City mayor trailing McCain. It's Florida or bust.
CONTINUED >>
Breaking news: Per CNBC’s Erin Burnett, the Fed cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a point. The AP adds, “The Fed action was the most dramatic signal it can send that it is concerned about a potential recession in the United States. It marked the biggest one-day move by the central bank in recent memory.”
“In a statement, the Fed said: ‘The committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth . While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households.’”
“Stocks across Asia took precipitous falls Tuesday for the second day in a row and Wall Street was pointed towards a sharply lower opening as fears grew that a weakening U.S. economy could derail growth worldwide. European markets, which briefly touched positive territory after steep losses on Monday, also turned negative after two large U.S. banks reported sharply lower profits.”
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan The debate on who can expand the party between the candidates, especially Edwards and Obama is best seen through the lens of Nevada. When Obama mentioned the tiny town of Elko, which he won by a huge margin, he was both accurate and his comment reflected a huge organizing effort on the part of his campaign to reach out to rural voters, independents and Republicans. The campaign started organizing in places like Elko in the fall, which is smack down in the center of the northern part of the state and it feels like you're stepping onto the set of "Fargo" when you go there. Investing resources there may seem like a lark, after all as one resident put it before the Obama office arrived there wasn't a political office there for "as long as anyone can remember." But Elko had two organizers, and the investment paid off because Obama was able to win in those rural areas which ultimately helped him gain the delegate advantage in Nevada.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards loved that CNN poll that showed him beating the four top Republicans nationally. Notably, Kerry-Edwards did not win the Southern states Edwards as veep was supposed to bring on board. When she introduces her husband Elizanbeth Edwards regularly refers to this problem and insists that this is because they did not visit states like Kansas and did not buy advertising in states like North Carolina. In South Carolina Edwards ends his town halls by promising to come back during the general election and when he is president.
But as our friend at Hotline, Amy Walter points out, if you take a look at more recent polls, Hotline/Diageo for example, you’ll see that Edwards is lagging big time.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Hillary Clinton did appear angry, tough, maybe overly harsh but she
also came off as a formidable opponent, and one had to wonder that if
she could go after her Democratic colleagues like that imagine what she
would do to a Republican. The core goal of Democrats voting in this
election is electability, they want change but they want to win more.
Clinton showed that she could take someone down, if not at least
attempt to.
That's not to say that Obama is not tough or
couldn't be harsh on a potential Republican in the race, it's just that
Clinton came off as so tough. It's interesting if you put Obama's
performance and Clinton's attacks in light of Jim Clyburn's interview
with Nightline. Clyburn said that if Obama can't handle the attacks in
the primaries and come out as a victor, he wouldn't make it in a
general -- basically saying that Hillary Clinton was doing Obama a favor
by going after him.
Speaking of "present" votes, here's a missed one: Hillary
missed the vote on bankruptcy bill -- for fact checking sake.
*** UPDATE *** The Clinton campaign tells us the reason Hillary Clinton missed the
vote was because it was the day Bill Clinton was having heart surgery.
*** UPDATE 2*** The Obama campaign points out there were two votes, one of which Clinton was present for an voted for, as mentioned during the debate. The campaign passes on all of the following:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd This was easily the most heated debate to date. The candidates, particularly Obama and Clinton were, well, angry and it got personal. Obama, in particular, seemed to have a lot he wanted to get off his chest.
Obama spent the early part of the night on the defensive, which I'm guessing, wasn't the game plan. Of course, when you're the candidate under fire, it usually means you're the candidate ahead. And in South Carolina, he's probably ahead. Still, Obama was constantly under attack by both Clinton and, to a degree, Edwards.
Also, Obama consistently got caught in a debate trap by responding to every charge with an explanation. It's a standup thing to do on one hand, but it ends up putting Obama off message; and it allows for the attack to get more air time rather than the original point or message Obama meant to be heard. Clinton, in contrast, rarely answers a charge directly and instead deflects by counter-punching, which shows her discipline.
Obama seemed to get that he got a bit too hot because in the second part of the debate, he refused a new chance to go after Bill Clinton a second time. But the campaign probably believes they showed that he's tough enough and they did want to continue to push the idea that the Clintons will say and do anything to win. BTW, Obama was particularly strong in the second part of the debate. His answers on religion and his national security rebuttal to Clinton were very good. The strong second half performance will blunt any potential negative backlash he received in the first part.
Clinton never looks good on the attack; and she didn't tonight but because she was getting in the mud with Obama, the two neutralized each other at best. Of course, her goal tonight was probably simply avoiding a major gaffe as she's headed out of the state and is somewhat downplaying her chances by staying out of South Carolina for three days.
Edwards had the easiest job tonight; he got to look like the above-it-all guy; but that's better than being the third wheel which to some he may ALSO have looked. When you aren't as competitive as your two opponents, it's easy to play the mediator and he did it well. He did no damage to his favorable rating (which is generally high) but did he do enough to start climbing back above that 15% threshold he needs to keep getting delegates? On points, Edwards can call himself the winner since he got to make the easy "can't we all just get along" points. But the center of attention for this debate was Obama and ultimately, that's probably a good thing for the South Carolina frontrunner.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan The
Obama campaign
would like a correction on a previous post that said his position on
troop withdrawal doesn't reflect his position that it could take 16
months to withdraw troops, a fact that he repeated over and over on the
stump between September and the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3rd.
Per
spokeswoman Jen Psaki: "Projections are that we will tart 2009 with 10
to 15 brigades in Iraq, meaning that you could get those remaining
briages out by the end of 2009."
However, the goal of getting
troops out by 2009 is a line that Obama has slipped into his stump
speeches, and does not reflect previous statements on the stump when he
was doing town halls throughout Iowa and New Hampshire. During those
fall and winter months, Obama repeatedly said that he wanted to be "as
careful getting out as we were careless getting in" and reassured
voters that the withdrawal would take time, would be careful and take
humanitarian and security concerns into consideration and that it could
take up to two and half to three years.
Perhaps intelligence
estimates have changed since then, but then the campaign should make
more of an effort to make the press aware of them rather than just
changing a standard part of his stump speech and a policy position
without notification.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
Two things: About Bill as first black
president. I've never hear/read anything more from Toni Morrison on
that point. My understanding is that it was somewhat tongue-in-cheek.
But it's quoted so often these days, it would be so great to return to
the topic with her.
Surprising Obama comment
about investigating Bill's dancing ability. Seems he was pandering to
the black audience, which may appreciate such jokes -- common as they
are in the black community -- but could any other candidate on that
stage have gotten away with saying anything so stereotypical? Even as a
joke?
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Hillary and Obama -- and their surrogates -- would stop saying they
don't want people to consider their race or gender in this election.
You simply can't have it both ways. You can't highlight the historic
nature of your candidacy in one breath and make jokes about blacks
being better dancers or say that a black man named Barack Obama had to
have hope to get here or ask voters to "help you make history" in the
next.
Wonder why no one in the media ever calls them on this?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is Obama talking about evangelicals and his belief in Jesus Christ (and his overt Christian mailers in SC) really about having a platform to dismiss these vicious, absolutely untrue rumors and e-mail whispers that assert the candidate is a Muslim? It certainly benefits him to do so in a largely evangelical state.
From NBC's Chuck Todd How does Bill Clinton like being compared to Elizabeth Edwards and Michelle Obama? I'm guessing he thinks that's not a fair comparison. Just guessing.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Good question from Suzanne Malveaux about Bill Clinton and if he's overshadowing the campaign (read: is he hurting your campaign, since she couched it with Clyburn's "tone it down" comment to Bill.) But Clinton didn't directly tackle the issue of her husband. She, instead, dismissed it and moved on, calling him a her advocate.
Obama then had the chance to hit Bill Clinton. "I have been troubled... the degree to which my record is not accurately portrayed, but that's standard practice in some of our political battles."
He then moved on to wanting to "redraw the political map ... We as Democrats have not had a working majority in a very long time ... to push through the bold initiatives all of us have opposed ... I believe I can reach out to independents and, yes, some Republicans who have lost faith in government. If you look at one thing Bush and Cheney have done is give their party a very bad name."
But he talks of wanting to expand the majority, but is that really likely?
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller At some stops in South
Carolina, like last night's NAACP service at Zion Baptist Church,
people have talked about how an African-American, a woman and a native
South Carolinian are running for president. Finally, Edwards got his
own demographic.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones That stat about how typical
African-American family income went up $7,600 during her husband's
terms is new to me. I have never heard her say it before. The stat
about Af-Am families losing average of $2,600 during Bush years -- is
also pretty new. I first heard it at the black church in Compton last
week.
It's interesting it's taken her so long to get specific to
Af-Am community. (Although, I may be wrong, but I believe she missed a
chance earlier to answer specifically how her healthcare plan would
help black women with HIV/AIDS.)
Her campaign has always said it
is appealing to all voters and not necessarily targeting specific
communities. That is clearly not the case, but it's still curious we
only rarely and relatively recently have heard these more specific
stats being used.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama handled the "Clinton as first black president" question about as well as he could. It was a "put him in a box" type question and he nailed it.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Nobody does the personal story better than Edwards on this stage. Perhaps Bill Clinton can do it better than Edwards but I'm not sure. Edwards is good, perhaps even better than the master of "feeling your pain," Bill Clinton.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It seems one of the things -- perhaps even a verbal crutch -- Clinton
relies on is the Bill Clinton presidency and
attacking George W. Bush. She surely speaks of more, but comes back to these two fallbacks over and over.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama's answer is not quite
accurate. He has repeatedly said on the stump that one to two brigades
per month could be removed and it would take around 16 months, making
troop withdrawal sometime in 2010 not 2009.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton's band-aid line gets applause in good exchange with Obama on healthcare. It's a line she debuted a while ago, but the 'I'm willing to go to the mat' bit is new and dramatic. Did she appear angry or pressing her point early on?
From NBC's Chuck Todd BTW, for the first time in months, there have been so many charges leveled by the candidates tonight that there's a huge need for some good old fashioned fact-checking. We're getting on it on our end. We assume we're not alone.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan If you go back and watch the exchanges
between Clinton and Obama on YouTube, one thing that stands out is that
Obama didn't try to interrupt Clinton while she was attacking him,
while Clinton did. She interrupted loudly, and it allowed her to stop
some of the Obama attacks because time was spent with them shouting
over each other and no one could understand what they were saying. This may make Obama appear polite, but Hillary was heard. Who does that help?
From NBC's Mark Murray
This time, it's often Clinton and Edwards vs. Obama.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro We've wondered if Obama was going to use this previously, but he just slipped it in -- that Clinton attempted to pass universal health care in 1993, but did it in the wrong way, "behind closed doors."
Not to mention that the fact that his plan doesn't cover the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants and the no mandate policy are very good general election positions by Obama. Would mandated insurance be passed in Congress? And how many people in this country want to be told they HAVE to have insurance? And what would those penalties be?
From NBC's Chuck Todd One thing we're learning tonight: Both Clinton and Obama have tempers. They both have let the other get under their skin. Edwards rarely shows flashes of anger and he's showing some independence from both candidates tonight but the frame of the debate still isn't good for him long term.
From NBC's Chuck Todd This "present" stuff is just a difficult thing to explain. Obama sounds like he's explaining it sincerely but the "present" stuff doesn't pass the smell test to the average voter. Maybe the Illinois state legis. ought to get rid of this "present" feature if they ever want someone to make it to higher office.
From NBC's Mark Murray Is it us, or is Hillary dumping her campaign's entire oppo file on Obama? Rezko, "present" votes, Iraq inconsistency, Reagan/GOP ideas. The whole kitchen sink is being thrown.
And Obama has done the same on Hillary: NAFTA, Wal-Mart, bankruptcy.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan For those who don't know, Tony Rezko, was a
Chicago figure who financially supported many Democratic campaigns and
also a Chicago landlord. He is also facing charges on federal
corruption for kickbacks among state employees' pension funds. Obama
was linked to Rezko because he contributed $10,000 to his campaign in
2004, and in recent court documents, Obama is listed as an "unnamed
politician" receiving money from Rezko. Rezko also provided a deal for
Obama to buy land adjacent to his home, which Obama later called "a
bone-headed move" on his part. Obama's campaign will be donating funds
contributed by Rezko and his associates to charity, a little more than
$80,000.
From NBC's Chuck Todd "Wal-mart"! "Rezko!" It's getting heated and it's not clear who's ahead or behind, that's what makes this Clinton v. Obama race so enticing to us junkies; I know it's a zero-sum game for the two campaigns but this is a lot fun for us observers.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro This is like a cleansing. This is what's been going on behind the scenes for months, and now finally the candidates are taking it upon themselves in full disclosure to show what's going on and what the differences are. For the first time, Obama has embraced this fight, almost bring it on. He has stayed away from doing this, but Nevada, and Bill Clinton have clearly irriated him.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Edwards is providing the "roll your eyes" moment. It's the easiest thing to do when you aren't involved in the debate anymore. The fact is, the debate between Clinton and Obama is heated and the moderator ought to let the debate happen. Don't cut off a debate that is just starting to get interesting.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Interesting quote from Clinton: "That wasn't the point of our criticism." Clinton admitting, it's a team effort on her campaign.
From NBC's Chuck Todd There's a fine line between getting tough on the Clintons and looking a lit bit too angry or irritated. Obama's sounding somewhat irritated. He just looks peeved. But clearly he's trying to draw her out. And he's succeeded.
From NBC's Mark Murray
This time, the crowd is very pro-Obama.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Interesting to hear all of the candidates talking "jobs" more so than "stimulus." It did seem tin ear-ish to me that all of their plans emphasized safety net ideas for the economy rather than focusing on job creation. Mitt Romney seemed to be the candidate that got the "jobs" issue first thanks to his decision to camp out in Michigan and see firsthand the economic devastation in that state.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Is Clinton looking past South Carolina? There are signs she is -- she's not in the state tomorrow, leaving it to her husband for the most part there. And then tonight, she talked about Oakland, Calif. California happens to be a Feb. 5 state.
From NBC's Chuck Todd The first real shot of the debate between the frontrunners: it's on trade and it's from Obama on Clinton over NAFTA. But he wasn't done there, he decided to hit Edwards on his once pro-free trade senate record.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro So far, on this recognized Martin Luther King Jr. holiday (his birthdate was actually on Jan. 15, the date of the MSNBC debate), King's name has been invoked five times so far -- three by Edwards, one by Clinton and Obama, respectively.
Edwards also tried to tie King's legacy to what he is fighting for, invoking King's "Poor People's Campaign." Edwards has famously made poverty tours and has spoken out on poverty and has made it a central issue to his campaign.
And, by the way, it's not just Clinton Obama's going after, he also took a shot at Edwards directly -- and neither have been able to respond yet.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro He went after Clinton on her economic plan and brought up the Iraq war and that he opposed it from the beginning. That got good applause. He seems more energetic tonight and alert. There have been other debates and during his campaign when he seemingly hasn't seen attacks coming and has been on the ropes. He seems on the balls of his feet tonight.
From NBC's Mark Murray
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro We're all just about debated out, but some things to watch tonight: the economy figures to be a big issue with 15% of South Carolina living below the poverty line. Obama received the strongest applause, Hillary got a good welcome as well. We'll see how they interact as well with the primary just days away, a back and forth that has evolved between Bill Clinton and Obama and strategic process wranglings by the campaigns on delegates and state-by-state victories. How does it all sort itself out tonight?
From NBC's Chuck Todd I've said this before and I'll say it again... and I say this with affection to my CNN friends, but the candidate intros and extra stagecraft seem to be a waste of time for the viewers. But again, I say this with admiration from our friends at CNN who love stagecraft.
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike McCain and Giuliani in Florida over the next week, Romney is turning his message to the economy, in the hopes that Sunshine State voters also view it as the most important issue.
At an event here today, Romney put forward his assertion that the issue the most important: “Right now, the No. 1 problem people are talking about as I go across the country is our economy. A couple of months ago we were all talking about what was happening in the Middle East, and that's an enormous challenge.” He padded the comment with acknowledgment for the sacrifices being made there but then said he’s “hearing a great deal and even more today about our economy.”
Romney has stressed as a major part of his message that he’s the best candidate, from either party, equipped to handle the economy, given that he’s spent more than 25 years working in the private sector. Giuliani and McCain, however, have branded themselves as the strongest on national security -- and a shift in voters’ focus to the economy could benefit Romney.
He often points out on the stump that the three major Democrats running for their party’s nomination “haven’t even run a corner store,” but it seems he’s broadened it to include the candidates from both parties. "I know there are a lot of people who are running for office for president who want to help steer our economy to a position of strength, but they've never had job in the real economy,” he said. “So how are they going to do that? I've spent my whole life in the real economy. And I think it's about time we had a president who understands how the real economy works.”
What's more, Romney has been hitting McCain for being a Washington politician who won't change things, and he continued that message again today indirectly targeting him. "I think we can fix Washington as long as we don't have someone who goes there that's not a lifelong politician that's spent their whole life in Washington getting favors from some people, having scores to settle with others."
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards could have struggled at the NAACP's MLK Day rally. Instead, following Obama , he told the throng that he was proud of his competitors and referred to a speech he gave in Harlem almost exactly a year ago.
At that time, Edwards addressed Riverside Church, behind the same podium where Martin Luther King, Jr. had called for an end to the Vietnam War four decades earlier. The former North Carolina senator used that opportunity to call on Congress to pull troops out of Iraq.
Today, Edwards again delivered King's famous line. "[King] said there comes a time in all our lives where if we stand quiet, if we stand silent, when our conscience tells us to speak, that our silence is a betrayal. It is a betrayal of ourselves, it is a betrayal of our country that we love so much," Edwards said.
"Brothers and sisters, we can no longer stand silent. We have to speak out, and we must speak out together, as Barack said, in unity with one voice, and it is time for us to not remain silent about this war in Iraq. It is time for us to bring our men and women home from Iraq," he said to cheers from a crowd carrying almost exclusively signs bearing the names of his rivals.
In the rest of his nine-minute address, Edwards went on to talk briefly about poverty, the minimum wage, predatory lending, education, and universal health-care coverage. The rally was Edwards' first public appearance of the day, as he did not participate in the preceding prayer service and march to the capitol. And he will spend the rest of the day preparing for tonight's CNN/Congressional Black Caucus debate in Myrtle Beach.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas McCain stopped by the reknowned Cuban hotspot, The Versailles Restaurant, for a shot of cortadito -- or Cuban espresso. It's unclear if he was able to court many Florida voters amidst the crushing sea of cameras that surrounded his every move. One restaurant employee told NBC that Mrs. McCain almost had coffee spilled on her in the chaos.
McCain slowly moved through the restaurant to a back room for a press conference, where he had harsh words for Cuba and used the local press to get out his talking points on Iraq, the economy, and immigration.
The senator is also using his on-and-off residency in Florida -- while he was in the military -- to appeal to the Florida voters. He said it was a state he has enjoyed visiting ever since and joked that both he and his wife Cindy have greatly supported the economy over the years.
The press conference ended with some laughter when the senator -- as we earlier noted -- responded to Chuck Norris' claims that the age of 72 is too old for a person to be president. He said, "I'm afraid that I might have to send my 95-year-old mother over and wash Chuck's mouth out with soap."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton spoke about King's legacy and the need to continue the struggle to fulfill his dream. She kept the focus on work and action.
The New York senator also debuted what sounded like a new slogan, urging everyone who can vote to come out and do so, repeating several times some variation of the phrase, "It is time to stand up, speak out, act and vote."
She received a warm reception from an energized crowd in which several dozen people held up Clinton signs. As all of the candidates have done recently, she highlighted the historic nature of this race and praised her rivals, calling Obama an "extraordinary, young African-American man with so much to contribute" and calling Edwards a "son of the South, in fact a son of South Carolina."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama began Martin Luther King Jr. Day by greeting supporters at Zion Baptist church before marching to the state capitol -- arm in arm with NAACP leaders and throngs of South Carolinians.
As the only candidate in the march, he got the spotlight to himself. Clinton's plane didn't land on time and Edwards was nowhere to be found.
Obama and Edwards sat for a while in the bitter cold on the steps of the capitol while the president and other leaders of the NAACP spoke about the problem of racism in America and the apathy of the black community when it came to voting. "You are free right now," NAACP president Dennis Hayes said.
Obama took the stage to much applause and delivered a brief version of the speech he gave in Atlanta the day before. "Unity is the great need of the hour." was his message, using King's words to underscore the theme of his campaign. "South Carolina unity is the great need of this hour," Obama told the crowd to oversome the country's "moral deficit."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney makes his way down the I-4 corridor in Florida today, with stops in Daytona, Orlando and Cape Canaveral among the few along the way, his campaign is releasing a Spanish-language ad in South Florida.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani made an unscheduled stop at the Daytona International Speedway Monday, riding in his bus along the racetrack and begging the NASCAR staff to let him ride in the pace car.
The former New York City mayor sat in the front passenger seat of his “Florida is Rudy Country” bus as it took a lap around the empty track at high speed, as the theme song from the movie “Rudy” played from the speaker system.
Then, while chatting with drivers and pit crews, Giuliani repeatedly pleaded to drive around the track in a pace car, growing increasingly disappointed as aides said he could not.
“Can I drive a car?” he asked. When told he did not have the proper NASCAR license, he asked to drive a pace car. NASCAR aides told him that he was going to be late for a town hall meeting.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Giuliani has staked it all on Florida. And it better hold for him because two new polls out show him now trailing in New York and Connecticut -- places the Giuliani campaign had only a month and a half ago described as "momentum proof."
In New York, McCain now leads Giuliani 36%-24%, followed by Romney at 10% and Huckabee at 7%, according to a Siena Research Institute poll. Seventeen percent said they were undecided. What's remarkable about this is not just that Giuliani is the former mayor of New York City, but that he led McCain in the same poll on Dec. 10, 48%-15%.
In Connecticut, McCain leads 39%-16% over Giuliani with Romney at 11% in a Hartford Courant/University of Connecticut poll.
On the Democratic side in the New York poll, Clinton leads Obama 48%-23% followed by Edwards at 10%. Nineteen percent are undecided. In Connecticut, Clinton leads Obama, 41%-27%.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas When asked about
Chuck Norris' comments yesterday in Texas about
McCain being too old, the Arizona senator replied, "I'm afraid that I might have to send my 95-year-old mother over and wash Chuck's mouth out with soap."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani was picking up an endorsement.Johnny Damon of the New York Yankees.Hideki Matsui endorsement are going...
*** UPDATE ***
“Rudy comes and visits me at the ballpark quite a bit, so I figure I could drive down the street and visit him here,” he said. “Rudy has done such a great job for New York. After the terrorism, he stepped up and he made New York closer, he made America closer and he’s gonna make this country a better place."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Abby Livingston and Mark Murray Bill Clinton and Obama continued last night. Speaking at a rally in Buffalo, NY, Bill essentially accused Obama of running a cynical Nevada campaign. “[Hillary ] won a victory in spite of a very well organized, and I might say a very well executed strategy by the Obama campaign, which included doing well in the north of Nevada, where his demographic of upscale voters lived, and by making an explicit effort to get Republicans to come and vote for him in the Democratic caucus.”
Bill continued, “[Obama] said President Reagan was the engine of innovation and did more, had a more lasting impact on America than I did. And then the next day he said, 'In the 90s the good ideas came out from the Republicans,” Clinton continued. “Which it'll be costly maybe down the road for him because it's factually not accurate.”
Obama, however, didn't quite say that about Reagan. Here's what he did say: "Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not. He put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it." More: "I think [John] Kennedy , twenty years earlier, moved the country in a fundamentally different direction. So I think a lot of it just has to do with the times. I think we’re in one of those times right now. Where people feel like things as they are going aren’t working. We’re bogged down in the same arguments that we’ve been having, and they’re not useful. And, you know, the Republican approach, I think, has played itself out. I think it’s fair to say the Republicans were the party of ideas for a pretty long chunk of time there over the last ten, fifteen years, in the sense that they were challenging conventional wisdom."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Huckabee isn't the only candidate trying to portay himself as a Christian leader.
Barack Obama in a mailer in South Carolina says that he will be guided by prayer when he's in office. The mailer shows Obama with his head bowed in prayer and has the words "Christian" in large letters. A second mailer shows Obama with his family and says he's a member of Trinity United Church of Christ for 20 years.
The mailers are part of an attempt by the campaign to rebut rumors circulating on the Internet and through e-mail that he is a Muslim. Obama has been questioned about these rumors by voters in Iowa and in the past week he has directly addressed them on the stump, telling crowds that he is a Christian and don't believe rumors that "say I have a funny name."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Bill vs. Obama: For quite a while, we’ve wondered whether Bill Clinton was being a distraction for Hillary (by saying he opposed the Iraq war from the beginning; telling voters that the failure to pass health care was his fault, not Hillary’s; and most recently delivering that “fairytale” line). But ever since becoming attack-dog-in-chief after Iowa, Hillary is now 2-0. And now Obama is fighting back. "You know, the former president, who I think all of us have a lot of regard for, has taken his advocacy on behalf of his wife to a level that I think is pretty troubling," Obama said in an interview with ABC this morning. It seems that Obama isn’t the only one who sees that advocacy a bit troubling. As Newsweek’s Alter wrote over the weekend, both Ted Kennedy and Rahm Emanuel called Bill to calm things down. Alter also makes a couple of interesting points in his piece. One, “in 2000, former president George Bush declined to attack his son's GOP primary opponent, John McCain.” And two, “Greg Craig, who coordinated Clinton's impeachment defense in 1998 and is now a senior Obama adviser, argues that ‘recent events raise the question: if Hillary's campaign can't control Bill, whether Hillary's White House could.’” Then again, if Clinton's 2-0 since Bill's gone on the warpath, what's going to stop him from keeping this up. Who is Obama's real opponent in South Carolina? Bill or Hill?
*** Dare to dream: The Congressional Black Caucus and CNN play host to the next Democratic debate, tonight, and it's likely to be the second Dem debate in a row where race plays a prominent role. How will the Bill stuff come up? Will Obama have to bring it up himself? Will he look like he's complaining about the refs, or will Obama playing up Bill's role in the campaign actually hurt Hillary a bit? Can Obama look above it all and engage Bill at the same time? Will tonight be as kumbaya as the last debate when just a day before it looked like one little match was going to set the primary into a race war? South Carolina Democrats don't mind a little dusting up; we're guessing things could get a bit heated. And then there's Edwards, what does he do? He stayed above the fray along with Clinton and Obama last time. But if the two front-runners engage, where will Edwards fall? Oh, this is the first debate since Obama paid tribute to Reagan as being more of a change agent than Clinton. No doubt that topic will come up as well. And by the way, is the Obama camp's complaint about voting irregularities in Nevada about sending a message to blacks in South Carolina about voter intimidation?
*** Let the sunshine in on the GOP: Given the frigid temperatures around much of the country, your political press corps couldn't be happier about the prospect of going South to both South Carolina and Florida this next week to warm up a bit. The Florida primary has it all -- diverse demographic groups, all the major candidates, and tons of meaning for the eventual winner. All four major candidates can find their core constituencies to target: Florida has a large share of veterans and moderates (McCain), New Yorkers and Jews (Giuliani), economic and rank-n-file conservatives (Romney), and evangelicals (Huckabee). The unknown with this foursome is how strong Rudy is. The stronger he is, the worse for McCain and vice versa. Both Romney and Huckabee need Rudy to do well if they can hope their 20-25% electorate can become a winning number.
*** The last stands: In a way, you can argue that Obama (in South Carolina) and Giuliani and Huckabee (in Florida) are making last stands. And if the races so far have been any guide, they might be in a good shape. It seems that all the candidates who have found their backs up against the wall this year -- Clinton in New Hampshire, Romney in Michigan, McCain in South Carolina -- have ended up winning those contests. While Obama, Giuliani and Huckabee are in last-stand mode, Edwards and Thompson are in “are they relevant?” mode. The vultures are circling, fellas… Staffs for both candidates are having to answer the "will you be getting out soon" question.
*** Double standard alert: Just asking: Why is it that when Democratic candidates address black congregations -- like Clinton and Obama did yesterday -- it doesn’t generate the same kind of skeptical press it does when Republican candidates speak at evangelical churches? Seriously, we saw more Democratic candidates at the pulpit yesterday than we’ve seen Republicans all year and yet…
*** Super Bowl politics: NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli asks: Could you have asked for a Super Bowl more ripe with GOP storylines? Mitt Romney's Patriots vs. Rudy Giuliani's Giants playing in John McCain's Arizona. (Sorry, Mike Huckabee.) It all takes place just two days before Tsunami Tuesday. And the game is on Fox, no less. It will be interesting to see how the campaigns plan around the big game. We’ll probably not see another Bill Clinton on 60 Minutes post-game. But for the record, a Super Bowl ad is reportedly going for $3 million, according to the Sports Business Daily.
*** On the trail: Clinton, Edwards, and Obama spend their morning at MLK Day celebrations in Columbia, SC, including a King Day prayer service earlier this morning at Zion Baptist Church. And at 8:00 pm ET, they participate in a CNN debate from Myrtle Beach, SC. On the GOP side, Giuliani is in Florida; Huckabee is in Atlanta, where he attends an MLK Day service at Ebenezer Baptist Church (but does not speak there); McCain stumps in Miami and Jacksonville, FL; Paul campaigns in Louisiana; Romney spends his day in Florida; and Thompson is down. Also, Bill Clinton does a rally in Macon, GA.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 5 days
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The candidates kick off the battle for South Carolina today with an MLK holiday rally in Columbia and then a debate tonight, the Columbia State reports.
The Greenville News : "Jim Clyburn, D-Columbia, the House majority whip and institute board member who is neutral in the race, said Clinton ‘has to connect with people on a personal level (in the debate); that needs to come through.’ Obama, who has faced questions about his lack of experience, may have a more complex situation, Clyburn suggested. ‘He has to be presidential, demonstrate that he's a strong leader,’ Clyburn said. ‘And he has to be careful not to be too soft, but not to harden up.’ Asked if that might not be at odds with Obama's public persona, Clyburn said, ‘You can be firm and not be hard.’”
The Washington Post re-interviews some black voters from three months ago and finds they are now moving toward Obama. "The firming of [voter the Post used as anecdote] feelings for Obama reflects a shift in support that started with his victory in Iowa on Jan. 3. Three months ago, when The Washington Post first interviewed Hammond and several other African American women in this state, Clinton (N.Y.) had the support of 54 percent of black women nationally, compared with 35 percent for Obama. But Obama is now winning 60 percent of the black vote, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times curtain-raises the Florida primary and notes it is now the first time all of the major candidates are competing in the same state. "The very diversity of the state -- as well as the rules of this particular primary, which is the first one this year open only to registered Republicans -- weighed over the campaigns as aides, meeting in Sunday-morning strategy sessions after Mr. McCain’s victory in South Carolina on Saturday, wrestled with strategic challenges posed by the politically complicated state.”
“Mr. Romney’s advisers said they were fearful that a continuing decline in Mr. Giuliani’s standing would send his previous supporters to Mr. McCain. These advisers argued that Mr. McCain would struggle to win Florida because he could not draw on votes from independents, who supported him in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and where his success was due in no small part to support from independent voters. All of the candidates were considering whether Mr. McCain’s victory in South Carolina would make up for the relative weaker organization he has here compared with Mr. Giuliani and Mr. Romney. So far in 2008, there has been little evidence that a victory in one state gives a candidate a lift going into the next one."
CONTINUED >>
"In a sign of just how fractious the Democratic race has become, the Obama campaign said it will ask the Nevada Democratic Party to review reports that Clinton caucus organizers had sought to block entry to certain caucus sites a half-hour before they closed. But the campaign said it is not contesting Clinton's victory and wants only to prevent such confusion in future caucuses."
So what's behind the Obama folks pushing this issue of intimidation in Nevada? Could it be about sending a message to black voters in S.C. that the Clintons were behind suppressing vote?
Time handicaps the big day for the GOP and the possibility the four candidates split up the states. Here's their scenario: "Let's imagine for a minute that Rudy Giuliani concentrates his efforts on four winner-take-all-states in his backyard: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and Delaware. If he won those states and (for discussion's sake) one quarter of California's congressional districts, he would take home about 343 delegates.”
“Meanwhile, it's conceivable that John McCain would direct his efforts largely elsewhere, at Arizona, Colorado, North Dakota, West Virginia — as well as all of California. If he prevailed in those four states and won half of California's CDs, he could take home as many as 242 delegates.”
“Then, there are already signs that Mike Huckabee has his eye on a third set of states on Feb 5: the heartland arc of Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee. If Huckabee won all of those (and they are almost all winner-take-all states), he would take home a surprisingly large 308 delegates. (This assumes Fred Thompson retires from the field between now and then, and Huckabee does poorly in California.)”
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: Just like four years ago, it appears the harder one looks at the family tree of the Democratic field, the more likely they find a Jewish relative or two. Hillary Clinton has a Jewish aunt.
EDWARDS: Are Edwards' days numbered ? "His aides have said privately that they do not expect Mr. Edwards to win a single primary state. And the results of the Nevada caucuses threw the campaign’s top advisers into hours of strategy meetings Saturday night, debating how the shellshocked campaign could feasibly continue. In the end, the campaign held onto its longstanding position of simply hanging on. ‘There’s just no reason not to go to South Carolina, pick up delegates and watch the dynamics of the race play out for a while,’ one adviser said."
More: "one thing was obvious from Mr. Edwards’s performance in Nevada: the already-murky rationale for continuing his campaign had suddenly become much less clear. Even as the Democratic race has narrowed to a virtual two-way match between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, Mr. Edwards has continued campaigning relentlessly for the nomination, most recently on a three-day airplane tour through four key states that will hold primaries on Feb. 5. On the stump and in interviews, he is still recalling his ‘son of a mill worker’ background, still vowing to take on powerful corporate interests and still insisting that he is very much in the Democratic race.
Also yesterday, Edwards said McCain "is starting to look like the Republican nominee and I think it's important for us to have somebody to run against McCain who can beat him and the national polls show that I'm the one who beats John McCain in the general election."
CONTINUED >>
Newsweek's Thomas looks at the GOP’s disarray. "Political eras, in modern times, have not been wiped away in landslides. In 2000, ending eight years of Democratic rule, Bush did not even win the popular vote against Al Gore. In 1960, after eight years of Republican rule, John F. Kennedy eked out a narrow win against Richard M. Nixon, and some historians still suspect the Democrats had to steal votes to do it. This time around, however, the Republicans appear poised on a precipice. Their candidates have raised only about two thirds as much money as the Democrats (about $168 million to about $245 million), and GOP turnout badly lagged the Democrats' in both Iowa and New Hampshire."
GIULIANI: The Boston Globe looks at the Giuliani Florida strategy. “In a chaotic Republican campaign, Giuliani has bet his candidacy on the Sunshine State to catapult him into the 21-state blowout on Feb. 5 when nearly half the delegates to the party convention will be chosen. Victories have failed to provide definitive momentum for three opponents, but Giuliani hopes Florida can whip up a tail wind for his stalled candidacy.”
“Giuliani, who needs a victory in Florida on Jan. 29 to keep his campaign hopes alive, blasted McCain, fresh off a primary victory in South Carolina, for abandoning his own party and voting in the Senate against President Bush's tax cuts,” the New York Post writes.
HUCKABEE: On Sunday morning, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy notes, Huckabee traveled to Chuck Norris' Lone Wolf Ranch in Texas for what was probably the most unconventional fundraiser of what has most certainly been an unconventional presidential campaign cycle. Before the fundraiser, Norris and Huckabee addressed the traveling press corps in one of the ranch's six guesthouses that was doubling as a media holding area for the day. "Starting today we reset the clock," Huckabee said. "You know I woke up this morning, I thought the momentum is back."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards portrayed himself as the best candidate to run against Republican John McCain a day after he won the Republican primary here.
"Well, he is starting to look like the Republican nominee,” Edwards said in response to a reporter’s question about McCain, “and I think it's important for us to have somebody to run against McCain who can beat him. And national polls show that I'm the one who beats John McCain in the general election. And second, I think even more important than that, this is a guy who's made central to his political life campaign finance reform. It seems to me we ought to be putting somebody up against him who's never taken money from special interest PACs or Washington lobbyists. Between the three of us, that's me."
Edwards’ response echoes the campaign ads he has been running here on cable. They have appeared much more often than anything Obama or Clinton have been running this past week. The ads feature pictures of Obama and Clinton side by side and asks specific questions like, who’s the only candidate not to take money from Washington lobbyists? Then an announcer says, John Edwards is the only one.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anurajan
Invited to speak at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, the church of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the weekend of his birthday, Obama reached gingerly for the mantle of Dr. King, trying to tie King's legacy to the call for change that has driven Americans to the polls in record numbers this election season.
"I will try to deliver my service succinctly and in a spirit of humility because I'm aware of how meaningful this pulpit is, not just to the city of Atlanta but to the African-American community and to the rest of the nation," Obama told the congregation packed with regular church goers, politicians including two U.S. Congressmen and Atlanta's mayor, as well as members of King's own family, including his sister Christine King Farris.
Speaking of a deficit of empathy in the country, Obama said that there was much left to be done to change the United States and overcome racism, which bound into institutional structures within this country kept groups of people back. He also asked the African American community to turn an eye on itself, asking them if they had lived up to the "beloved community" King had championed, and he openly questioned the existence of homophobia, anti-Semitism and anti-immigrant sentiments, and absent fatherhood in America's black communities.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones Clinton returned to Harlem's historic Abyssinian Baptist Church Sunday to pick up the endorsement of its minister, a prominent figure in New York's African-American community who made a point of explaining why he was supporting her and not her chief rival.
The Rev. Dr. Calvin Butts cited his long relationship with the senator and her work on education and healthcare among the reasons for backing her and shared that he had received phone calls from people in the black community questioning his decision to support a white woman rather than Obama .
"This was not and is not and will not become a race-based decision for me,” Butts said, “and I hope that it has not and will not become a race-based decision for you either. I respect Sen. Obama. I applaud him and I love him as my brother, but a vote for Hillary is not a vote against Barack Obama or any community, be it African-American, Latino and others, for that matter. A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to elect someone who has proven through time to me and to this community and this country that she has the experience to make things happen and the vision to return us to a place of prosperity.”
A shout out between small groups of Clinton and Obama supporters that began as reporters stood outside waiting for the press conference to start was revived for a moment during Butts' brief statement, as Hillary backers tried to drown out the people chanting for Obama.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Fletcher Smith hopes the third time's the charm.
Smith, an African-American state representative from Greenville County, signed up to be a co-chair of Bill Richardson 's South Carolina campaign in July. But as Richardson's call for the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq became more strident, Smith started to question the New Mexico governor's plan. In October, he switched his allegiance and endorsed Joe Biden .
But on caucus night, Biden's presidential dreams ended. And Smith became a free agent again.
As a black legislator in a state where half of Democratic primary voters are African-American, Smith's nod is a hot commodity. He's been heavily courted by the Clinton campaign and has received overtures from Obama , with whom he says he will likely meet next week before making his final decision.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani continued to go after McCain on tax cuts today and defended his own tax cut records by stressing his balanced budgets as New York City mayor.
Interviewed on ABC News’ “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” Giuliani was asked about Romney accusations that he sued the state of New York to keep a commuter tax in place and left Gracie Mansion with a deficit “Well, the fact is, I've had eight balanced budgets, including that one, which turned out to be balanced,” Giuliani said. “And we took the actions necessary to do that, including cutting back spending. And of course, my record in tax cutting is so much better than anyone else.”
Giuliani said that he left office “in the middle of the fiscal year” to explain what Stephanopoulos alleged to be a $2.8 billion deficit when he stepped down in January 2002. “In the middle of every fiscal year for eight years, there's always a deficit because you don't close it until the end of the year,” he said. “The last budget that I closed was balanced. The last budget that I closed after I left was balanced.”
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** McCain’s Win : So are there lone front-runners in either party yet? The short answer is no. In the Republican field, McCain got a much-needed victory in South Carolina, thanks in part to a crowded primary ballot. We still don't know if he can win a one-on-one against someone perceived to be slightly more conservative. It is worth noting that McCain technically lost Republicans in South Carolina by one point, according to the exit poll. But the good news for McCain is that it may be a while until he is forced into a two-way. Next week, the dynamic is a true four-way race in Florida.
*** Looking ahead to Florida: Speaking of Florida, just who is the favorite there? Giuliani, who has taken up residence in the state but whose best finish so far has been a distant fourth in New Hampshire? McCain, who has two of the four most prominent wins to date (New Hampshire and South Carolina) but hasn't spent a lot of time campaigning in the state? Romney, who is the party's delegate leader and has a decent chunk of the Jeb Bush team? Or Huckabee, who is still in search of another win but may find himself all alone appealing to values conservatives in the state (which has A LOT of mega-churches) -- as the other three battle on the taxes and economic front?
*** A split decision? As for the Democrats, Clinton picked a much needed win, even though no one knew who exactly was going to turn out at Nevada’s caucuses. Her campaign is now guaranteed a split of the first four states going into Tsunami Tuesday. Of course, after the results were processed and the delegate math was done, Nevada's inaugural caucus got a little bit of egg on its face when -- despite a fairly decisive win -- Clinton didn't win a majority of the delegates. Obama did. And while we have no plans on erasing Clinton's winning checkmark, Obama's apparent delegate win is a good reminder of how February 5 should be judged. A question we posed to a number of observers last night was: Will that winner be the candidate who wins the most states, the most raw vote, or the most delegates? The answer is pretty obvious: delegates.
*** Looking ahead to South Carolina : As for the next South Carolina battle, the pressure for a win moves from Clinton to Obama. If the Nevada exit poll results among blacks and whites is duplicated by Obama in South Carolina, the race might not be close. And, on paper, there's an argument that it shouldn't be. Then again, Clinton's chief ally -- her fired up husband -- is vowing to make the state competitive as he promises to go church-to-church and door-to-door in the state's black community, just like he went casino-to-casino in Nevada. Don't under estimate his belief that he personally turned things around in Nevada; that should give him carte blanche in South Carolina, right? The Clintons are now 2 for 2 as Bill has become the attack dog. And then there's John Edwards. If he fades like he did in Nevada, where does his vote go? Our last MSNBC-McClatchy poll indicated he shares similar demographic support groups with Clinton. It's going to be a fascinating week, with all the pressure now on Obama.
*** Hook, line, and sinker : You can say one thing about the Clinton campaign: They sure know how to play the expectations game. They now have back-to-back expectations wins. The first one, of course, was in New Hampshire, where everyone -- including them -- thought they would lose, even though the state had been always her firewall and she had been leading in the polls there before December. Nevada, though, was a bit of a different story: They (and also at least one Obama aide, who was captured on video) built Obama’s first big union endorsement into a decisive advantage for the Illinois senator -- Clinton surrogates were saying on TV earlier in the day that those at-large caucus sites could equal to five points for Obama -- and the press ate it up. Yet those at-large/casino sites made up just 6% of the precincts, and Clinton ended up winning many of them (thanks to the support of so many other major labor groups). In fact, that CNN Vegas debate back in November, when the crowd booed Obama and Edwards, should have been a reminder to all of us that Clinton had a pretty solid advantage in Nevada, especially in Las Vegas. And she led in every Nevada poll except for one. Now we head into another contest where all the pressure is on Obama, not Clinton…
*** Just who is the underdog? Indeed, after her win yesterday, the Clinton campaign issued a memo, which said that Nevada “was a test of whether the voters would win out through a process that gave significant institutional advantages to Hillary’s opponent.” How Clinton -- with the backing of Emily’s List, AFSCME, AFT, much of establishment Washington, and a former president -- was ever allowed to become the underdog is one of the more fascinating stories of this election cycle. On the trail : Clinton attends worship service at Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem and later, as NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday, picks up an endorsement from the church’s pastor, Calvin Butts; Edwards stumps in South Carolina, where among other things he participates in an MLK celebration at Zion Baptist Church in Columbia, SC; Giuliani holds five different rallies in Florida; Huckabee attends a BBQ party Chuck Norris throws for him at the Lone Wolf Ranch outside of Houston, TX; McCain, as of press time, is holding a media avail in Charleston, SC; Obama speaks at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, GA before heading to a rally in Columbia, SC; and Romney is in Florida.
*** On the Sunday mornings shows : Per Hotline, Meet the Press has NBC’s Tom Brokaw, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Newsweek’s Jon Meacham, Peggy Noonan, and NPR’s Michele Norris; Face the Nation has John Edwards and Obama chief strategist David Axelrod; This Week talks to Giuliani and Rep. Charlie Rangel; Fox News Sunday has Romney and Sen. Chuck Schumer; and Late Edition hosts Reps. James Clyburn and Carolyn Kilpatrick.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 6 days
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From NBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo McCain win in South Carolina, where the vast majority of voters describe themselvs as conservative? After all, this was the place where McCain's 2000 presidential bid was all but dashed because he failed to sway the party faithful. Tonight, he did very well among the Republican base, which in this contest accounted for 79% of the electorate.
More than two-thirds of those going to the polls today described themselves some shade of conservative: 34% very conservative, 34% somewhat conservative, and 24% moderate. McCain won almost half of the moderates -- 47% -- with no other candidate getting a significant share. And while Huckabee clearly did well amongst those voters who described themselves as very conservative -- 38% -- the other three candidates reigned in strong numbers as well, preventing Huckabee from dominating this group: Thompson at 21%, McCain at 19%, and Romney at 17%.
Among the 35% of voters who described themselves as "somewhat conservative," McCain edged out Huckabee 32%-30%. McCain's campaign faltered in 2000, largely because he could not appeal to conservative and core Republican voters. He made up for that tonight.
Also, military veterans made up 25% of the electorate, and of that group, McCain bested Huckabee 36%-29%. Lastly, among voters that said that experience matters the most, McCain held a 3-to-1 advantage over Romney . No one else even came close.
Form NBC's Lauren Appelbaum McCain finished his victory speech and greeted supporters, ABBA's "Take a Chance on Me" played from the speakers. Yesterday, McCain told NBC's Kelly O'Donnell that he was tiring of "Johnny B. Goode" and asked for this song. It was debuted during last night's rally while McCain worked the rope line.
However, as McCain continued greeting voters after tonight's speech, "Johnny B. Goode" followed. As McCain showed in South Carolina, not only do classics come back, they can also become beloved.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Huckabee camp is blaming for its squeaker of a loss in South Carolina: Fred Thompson .
After Huckabee’s gracious concession speech -- in which he had nothing but kind words for John McCain who he said showed great “civility” -- former SC Gov. David Beasley , a Huckabee surrogate, railed against Thompson.
“Fred hurt us in South Carolina,” Beasley began. “He had one goal and one goal only -- to distort Mike Huckabee’s record so John McCain could pull it out. No ifs, ands or buts about it….
“Thompson came here and just went to the areas where he could gut Huckabee. I have no doubt in my mind, it was Washington politics at its worst.
“One thing about Fred; I love Fred, but Fred’s not stupid….I don’t think he had any intention in South Carolina but to hurt Mike Huckabee…. Had Fred Thompson not been in the race, this would have been an overwhelming, dynamic victory for Mike Huckabee.”
He also talked of just having three-and-a-half days to campaign in South Carolina post Michigan versus the two weeks George W. Bush had to retail here in the crucial days before the primary. The question has to be raised: Should Huckabee have campaigned at all in Michigan and spent more time here in the run up to today?
Beasley sure thinks so. "Michigan split us up, cut us down," he said.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards wrapped up his coast-to-coast tour across the country today at Greenville High School here in South Carolina, only hours after he finished a distant third in Nevada.
Following the town hall, Edwards tried to shrug off the Silver State's choice. "This is one of those times that I hope the old saying what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas turns out to be true," he told a reporter who asked whether he was disappointed. To another who asked what went wrong in Nevada, he replied, "Oh, I don't think it means anything. I think the other candidates spent enormous amounts of money and we didn't. It was a caucus process. They were there for a long time organizing. I'm excited about being here in South Carolina. So we've now had three states vote out of 50. We got 47 to go, and this cause that I'm engaged in is not going to go away and it has not changed."
Yet the Edwards campaign conducted a four-state strategy in the last months of 2007, focusing exclusively on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Though Edwards spent most of his time going back and forth between Iowa and New Hampshire, the Hotline's count of candidate visits to Nevada between January 2007 and Jan. 16, 2008 shows that Edwards visited the state more often than any other candidate. Edwards came 17 times, while Barack Obama came 12 times and Hillary Clinton eight times.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger THE VILLAGES, FL -- For weeks, Giuliani said he was living by Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment to not go after his Republican rivals. Today, he came close.
“I supported the Bush tax cuts,” Giuliani said at a rally here as results were being announced in Nevada and South Carolina. “John McCain voted with the Democrats against the Bush tax cuts -- twice. And Mitt Romney did not, clearly, support the Bush tax cuts.”
Giuliani has long stressed his friendship with McCain, so the attack on him was more surprising. He has been loathed to speak ill of McCain -- even when provoked -- and his only criticism before has been said that McCain has never run anything. Giuliani and Romney have been butting heads for months over issues like the line-item veto.
But Giuliani had all but vetoed going after his Republican rivals, frequently evoking Reagan’s commandment, “thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.” He has said the only exception is when he is attacked first.
Giuliani and his aides said they were not breaking the commandment Saturday, but emphasizing contrast.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama campaign pointed out it had won more pledged delegates than Clinton did -- which the AP and NBC News later backed up -- the Nevada Democratic Party issued this statement: "Just like in Iowa what was awarded today were delegates to the County Convention. No national convention delegates were awarded. The calculations of national convention delegates being circulated are based upon an assumption that delegate preferences will remain the same between now and April 2008."
The Clinton campaign then issued something similar, saying: "The Obama campaign is wrong. Delegates for the national convention will not be determined until April 19."
But hold on, folks. The Nevada Democratic Party just issued this clarification (emphasis is ours): "No national convention delegates were awarded. That said, if the delegate preferences remain unchanged between now and April 2008, the calculations of national convention delegates being circulated by the Associated Press are correct .
What does this mean? It looks like the Obama camp's math (as well as the AP's and NBC's) is correct.
NBC News projects McCain the winner in South Carolina, a reversal of fortunes from eight years ago for the Arizona senator.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum In an interview on MSNBC this evening,
Romney touted his Nevada win and dismissed South Carolina as being less important to an overall 2008 strategy.
"There are 34 delegates in Nevada, 24 in South Carolina -- so from the very beginning, we cared about Nevada," Romney said. "People care about Nevada and want those votes. If you're going to win the presidency in November '08, you're going to have to win key battle ground states like Nevada."
When asked about the overwhelming Mormon support he received today in Nevada, Romney repeated his claim that he "would have won whether or not people of my faith turned out or not." He also touted his newspaper endorsements and support among evangelicals and Hispanics.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Bethany Thomas
And one more chant: "Call it, Call it, Call it"
From NBC's Abby Livingston and Andy Merten and NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann It was the political equivalent of Geraldo opening Al Capone’s vault. After early South Carolina results show Thompson trailing Huckabee and McCain , MSNBC cut away from political analysis for Thompson to make an announcement. Smelling blood, political reporters and junkies held their breaths, leaning into their televisions, wondering, “Is this the night Fred Thompson is going to withdraw?”
No dice.
Instead, Thompson essentially delivered his stump speech and made little acknowledgement that there was even a race that day. A race, in fact, that he had described only eight days ago as “his stand.”
One of the more noteworthy aspects of the speech was a possible sarcastic quip, “It may be a little early to declare victory, I’m not sure…” Thompson said.
But the crowd appeared to take him literally and cheered enthusiastically. “We told our folks to vote late so they’ll still be trickling in,” he added.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro MSNBC's David Shuster reports that, according the South Carolina Republican Party, Upstate cities Greenville and Spartanburg have not yet reported their results. Are we in for a long night?
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo It's a tight race in South Carolina, with
McCain and
Huckabee competing for first place. A couple of observations...
First, we know that the Republican base turned out in large numbers -- more so that eight years ago when
George W. Bush won the state. As for independents, they make up about 19% this year. Compare that to 2000 when independents made up 30% of the electorate.
We're seeing a large turnout of evangelicals -- 58%. Huckabee courted this group and today they gave him 41%; however, McCain received 27% and
Romney 11%. A sizeable advantage for Huckabee, but not the same that we saw in Iowa.
As in every contest this year, voters in South Carolina want someone who shares their values. Forty-two percent said this; 23% think that experience matters. Among the voters that said experience matters, McCain gets a large majority: 67% to Romney's 24%. Huckabee gets a meager 2%.
Lastly, voters in South Carolina say that John McCain is the best person to beat the Democratic nominee: McCain 41%, Huckabee 22%, Romney 20%.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clintons celebrated their Nevada win with a rally at the Planet Hollywood hotel and casino on the Strip here, with the senator taking the stage for a five-minute speech in which she proclaimed to cheers: “I guess this is how the West was won!”
With 98% of precincts reporting, Clinton beat Obama , 51%-45%, in delegate equivalents, with Edwards a distant third at 4%. But as it stands right now, Obama seems to have won more pledged delegates for the Democratic convention than Clinton did.
"Thank you,” the senator told a crowd of precinct captains, volunteers and supporters, many of whom wore bright yellow “Hillary” shirts or other campaign paraphernalia and shouted “H-R-C.” One woman wore a hat that said, "A woman’s place is in the Senate, the House and the Oval Office.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
In the middle of the subsequent question-and-answer period, “I have an announcement” came over the speaker system, but Romney put up his hand to halt the interruption and said, “No, no, no, no, no. Not a good time for the PA.” As it happens, it was not the flight attendant, but Ann Romney who forged ahead with the notice that FOX News had just called the Nevada caucuses for her husband.
“That is a good announcement,” Romney said nonchalantly, ready to return to questions about the stimulus package. But a reporter then asked about his third primary win, forcing him to discuss the outcome briefly.
The interlude was indicative of a changing campaign -- a team whose eyes have turned to the map of the nation. Consider the urgency of the briefing session, which was held on the plane en route to Florida, where the next big nominating contest will take place in 10 days that hurls the primary forward into a national race on Super Tuesday.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Hillary Clinton will go to church at one of Harlem's most important black churches Sunday morning, Abyssinian Baptist.
Her campaign is focusing on the African-American vote ...as they head toward South Carolina.
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama campaign just held a conference call with reporters asserting that -- due to Obama beating Clinton outside of Clark County (Las Vegas) -- they actually won more pledged Nevada delegates than Clinton did, 13-12.
The math turns out to be a bit confusing, but the shorthand is this: The more populous Clark County, which Clinton won, awarded a even number of delegates, and Clinton and Obama split those down the middle. Meanwhile, the more rural areas, which Obama won, awarded an odd number of delegates, which gave Obama the edge. "We showed real strength statewide," campaign manager David Plouffe said in the call.
But the AP -- as well as NBC News -- had reported that the delegate split being Clinton 13, Obama 12. Who is wrong here? Per the Obama camp, the state party is still gathering results, and they believe the AP has incomplete numbers.
In the Q&A, a reporter asked, so does this mean you won Nevada? Plouffe replied, "We'll leave that up to you guys."
And now NBC News shows a change in delegates from our earlier count: It's Obama 13, Clinton 12.*** Update *** AP now also shows that Obama won the delegate count.
NBC News says the South Carolina GOP primary is too early to call.
McCain and Huckabee are competing for first place, while Romney and Thompson are vying for third place.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
“I made the decision about five minutes ago; I‘ve been thinking about it for four months,” said one man in this upper-middle-class community in the WildeWood and Polo Road precincts. “I was going to go with Romney, but decided it was McCain’s time. I just think he’s the strongest Republican candidate to beat the Democrats. His age concerns me a bit, but, in the end, I just thought he was the best one.”
“I decided in the past week,” said one woman who said she voted for Huckabee. “I have tremendous respect for him because of his Christian faith. I just feel like I know who he is.” Another woman, whose husband broke for McCain, echoed those sentiments. “He seemed the most consistent,” she said, but added, “And I am a Christian -- that was a factor to some degree.”
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo Clinton won in Nevada today by bringing out the party faithful. Forty percent of the state of Nevada are minorities, and it's the first contest with a significant Latino population. Today, she beat
Obama nearly three to one in this group. Her campaign is saying tonight that it's a huge victory considering the tens of thousands of dollars of radio ads questioning her commitment to Latinos.
Once again we saw a gender gap. More women turned out than men (59% to 41%) and they voted for Clinton: 51% went for Clinton, 38% for Obama, and just 10% for
Edwards .
In terms of the issues that were important to voters, the economy was the overwhelming concern: 49% chose the economy, 24% chose health care, 22% chose the War in Iraq. Of those that said the economy was the top concern, Clinton bested Obama by 11 points.
One of the central battles of this campaign has been about change vs. experience. In our polls, 48% of Democrats say they want change, 24% want experience. Of those who said they want a candidate that brings change, Obama has a 2-to-1 advantage, 57% to 29%. Among the Democrats who said experience was the most important, it was a blowout for Clinton. She won a whopping 86% compared to Obama's 6%.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani has been trying to make his own for the last couple of weeks.
“Come on down,” he said at a rally at the Villages today. “We’re waiting for you.”
At times, as Giuliani has criss-crossed Florida, it has been hard to believe he is not running for governor. In an effort to kick-start his campaign, he has localized his campaign almost exclusively to Florida issues. He spoke about space policy near Cape Canaveral Friday. He toured the Everglades Saturday to look at environmental issues. Before that, it was a catastrophic fund for hurricane and other disaster victims. And visiting senior centers, he has talked health care and Social Security.
CONTINUED >>
The following delegates are allocated in the NV Democratic caucus:Clinton -- 13Obama -- 12
None remaining to be allocated.
The following is the allocation of delegates in the NV GOP caucus.Romney -- 17McCain -- 4Paul -- 4Huckabee -- 2Thompson -- 2Giuliani -- 1Hunter -- 1
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann
Underscoring that fear, the campaign sent out a release this afternoon that said, in part, that “voters are being turned away from the polls because electronic voting machines are not working and paper ballots are not available. Some voters say they are being instructed to return at a later time. We are disturbed by these reports and hope that this issue is resolved immediately."
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From NBC's Andy Merten Obama campaign has provided NBC News with a recording of robocall that a Nevadan received. The call, first reported by the Politico , repeats the Illinois senator’s middle name, Hussein and attacks his relations with “Washington lobbyists” and “special interest groups.” It makes no mention of Clinton or Edwards .
It's unclear how many Nevadans heard it. The Politico mentions just one who did.
Here's a full transcript of the roughly 30-second call is below: “Hi, I'm calling with some information about Barack Hussein Obama that you don't know. Barack Hussein Obama says he doesn't take money from Washington lobbyists or special interest groups, but the record is clear. He does. In fact, Barack Hussein Obama has taken millions of dollars from federal lobbying firms, Wall Street fat cats, big oil and pharmaceutical companies. It's all there on the record, the facts are clear. We just can't take a chance on Barrack Hussein Obama.”
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
After the second-choice realignment, Clinton won 189 to 187.
Final delegate was Clinton, 38 Obama 37
From NBC's Christina Jamison and Mark Murray Clinton claim that those Vegas caucus sites -- which Bill Clinton said were unfair and which the state teachers' union sued over -- could amount to five points for Obama ...
At the Paris casino, Clinton got more than double the caucus-goers of Barack Obama. After all were counted, it was announced there would be 61 delegates awarded from this site. Delegate breakdown not announced yet but raw numbers are as follows:
Clinton: 211
There were 5 uncommiteds, 2 of which re-aligned with Obama. The rest of the uncommiteds and the Edwards supporters chose to remain un-viable.
Some color from this event- A lot of union workers came in carrying signs saying "I support my union, I support Hillary." Lots of Culinary Workers Union tees also on the Obama folks.
One culinary worker got into several heated exchanges with the Clinton supporters. He screamed, "A vote for Hillary is a vote for Wal-Mart!". At one point, he got into an argument with AFSCME President Gerald McEntee about Hillary's union credentials.
