CNN did dial testing and reported that a slighty majority of their group gave the debate to Clinton but then added a caveat that the group sided with Obama on the Iraq issue. Interesting that they would include that addendum.
More: "Even while Clinton and Obama both admitted to supporting tax increases on hard-working Americans, they failed to fully account for how they would pay for all their proposals. Both spoke to retreating from the War on Terror, but failed to admit their records of defunding the troops and weakening our national defense. Today, Obama was crowned the “most liberal senator,” and his out-of-the-mainstream proposals left no question that he deserved the title. Clinton’s failure to explain her changing positions will do nothing to restore trust with the American people. After watching these two Democrats pander to Hollywood’s liberals, I have never been more confident that a Republican will win in November.”
You'll find the list below, and NBC/NJ has added who they have donated to....
Diane Keaton... Hasn't given to anyone
Rob Reiner... Edwards, Clinton, Richardson and Dodd... apparently not an Obama fan.
Steven Spielberg and Kate Capshaw.. Spielberg has maxed out in giving to all the Democratic candiates
Stevie Wonder...No record of him giving either though Obama plays "Signed Sealed Delivered" at every campaign stop.
Bradley Whitford... Looks like Josh from the West Wing is a bipartisan guy. He's maxed out to Biden, Obama and Ron Paul.
possibly Fran Drescher (a Hillary supporter has given her $2,300) and Topher Grace (no record of giving)
Pierce Brosnan... The Brit is staying neutral, hasn't given to anyone
America Ferrera... Ugly Betty campaigns for Clinton but hasn't given her any money.
Clinton claims she's said many times that had she known then what she knows now, she would not have given Bush that authority on Iraq. Sure
she's said this before, but not that often, at least not on the stump
as I've heard in the last several months. In fact, Clinton rarely
mentions this issue on the stump -- almost never, unless asked a direct
question on it, which hasn't happened lately. There's no good reason
for her to bring this up, since it just reminds the anti-war folks
about this vote -- as if they need reminding -- which she refuses to
say was a mistake, as they would like to see her do.
Adds NBC/NJ's Athena Jones (a bit sarcastically): They "heart" each other. Did you see him pull out her chair? Oh what a peachy end to a sweet debate. Like powdered sugar.
At about 9:15, I was toying with the following lead to my post-debate wrap, "Nobody lost this debate, let's make that clear." And then the subject shifted to Iraq, that's when this debate turned Obama's way.
Both candidates started out soft and strong; it appeared another kumbaya debate was about to take place.
And then came Iraq and Clinton once again showed why the issue has been such an Achilles heel. Obama just has an easier time talking about his position. Clinton has to sit there and re-explain why she was for it and why she's not for it now. It's never a good moment for her which is the recent shift to the economy has been so welcomed by Team Clinton.
Overall, this was a strong night for Obama as he proved that he belonged on the same stage as Hillary Clinton. And that's an important accomplishment for Obama. Because, I keep wondering, are undecided voters waiting to see if Obama can prove his mettle for the presidency?
There's a theory that believes just that. And if that theory is true then this debate could prove to be very important to Obama. The audience for this debate was undecided voters and former Edwards supporters and I'm guessing these folks have a fairly low bar for Obama to prove himself to them, compared to the bar they have for Clinton since they are still not on board with the more well-known candidate. Think about the progress Obama's made in the debate department since
early '07. She regularly cleaned his clock at these early debates but
now that advantage seemed to disappear. And Clinton can't afford for that gap to disappear.
It's interesting that neither candidate is feeling the pressure of losing on Feb. 5; If anything, one gets the sense that both candidates realize this campaign could go on a few more months so no sense throwing any desperate attacks tonight. Neither candidate took crazy shots at each other which tells me that neither thinks they are behind.
Obama's strongest moments may have been toward the end when the debate shifted to Iraq. Clinton struggles to defend her actions at the time with her new position now and it just doesn't come across well. If this debate were being scored like a boxing match, the first 60 minutes would have been judged as a draw but the last 30 minutes would have been given to Obama on points, thanks to the Iraq issue.
If Obama does go on to defeat Clinton for the nomination, he will join McCain in winning his party's nod on the back of Iraq, even as the issue landscape has shifted to the economy. Go figure.
Two other extraneous thoughts: Democratic Party elders should be ecstatic about the civil tone the two
kept throughout the debate. Contrast the tone tonight with McCain v.
Romney last night. ... And CNN did the Democratic Party no favors by filling the audience with celebrities. Maybe that's good for CNN to have those folks to cut to during the broadcast but it only feeds into the stereotype that Hollywood and the Democratic Party are inseparable.
The Iraq section of this debate was not good for Clinton.
But for about the last 20 minutes, the issue returned with full force -- over the 2002 Iraq war resolution, the Levin amendment, how to withdraw from Iraq, and the use of force in general.
And now Maxine Waters and her "Out of Iraq" group at this debate.
By my count, there have been six McCain mentions so far. It's strangely similar to the Republican debate last week in Florida, when Clinton's name was invoked many times.
Obama criticizes Hillary for having different positions on the drivers
license issue. One of Bill Clinton's critiques of the press coverage is
that Obama had a similar hang-up one week later after Hillary's
much-publicized answer during the MSNBC debate in Philadelphia. And in
her response tonight, Hillary hinted at Obama's trouble during another
CNN debate in November.
Here's what Obama said in Las
Vegas. Asked if he'd support giving a drivers license to illegals,
Obama said that as a state senator he voted to require illegal aliens
to get them. He then said he is "not proposing that that's what we do"
now. Wolf Blitzer tried to clarify his response at least twice, and
ended the exchange by saying: "This is the kind of question that is
sort of available for a yes or no answer. Either you support it or you
oppose it."
Obama has been much more comfortable bringing up McCain in various answers than Clinton. Is there a reason for that?
If you want proof that these candidates aren't going for the jugular tonight when the spotlight is glaring upon them.. take a look at what Obama said about the Clinton presidency in the speech he just gave yesterday, it's certainly of a different tone than his answer on the Clinton presidency tonight:
"We've reached Americans of all political stripes who are more interested in turning the page than turning up the heat on our opponents. That's how Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress. Not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us, but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change.," he said.
If you choose change, you will have a nominee who isn't just playing on the same electoral map where half the country starts out against us, because you will have a nominee who has already brought in more Independents and Republicans;
'I know it is tempting – after another presidency by a man named George Bush – to simply turn back the clock, and to build a bridge back to the 20th Century. There are those will tell us that our Party should nominate someone who is more practiced in the art of pursuing power; that's it's not yet our turn or our time.
It is about the past versus the future. And when I am the nominee, the Republicans won't be able to make this election about the past because you will have already chosen the future.
It's time for new leadership for the woman I met who can't get Medicaid to cover the needs of her sick child. She can't afford to wait another four years or another fifteen years to get health care because we've put forward a nominee who can't bring Democrats and Republicans together to get things done. I know that the reason Americans don't have health care isn't because no one is forcing them to buy it – it's because they can't afford it.
Hillary's been asked that question before and it is central to Obama's argument -- why should the country vote for a Clinton when there's been either a Bush or a Clinton on the ballot for a generation. She knocked it out of the park with a line she's used before, saying, it took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and it might take another Clinton to clean up after this Bush. It's about as good as she could answer it and it got a standing ovation. Still, Obama can make the case as generational change and turning the page on the politics of old.
adds that that line is one that's not new. I think I've heard line many, many, many, many times, she writes. It's always a winner, always gets laughs and applause, just like it did here.
When Obama had the chance, he talked about crumbling schools in South Carolina, instead of crumbling schools in Los Angeles or Oakland or Oklahoma or Tennessee or Brooklyn or any other Feb. 5 state.
She seemed to even cut Wolf off she was so ready. She delivered the same answer she's given lately on this stuff
Last week, Hillary Clinton's camp had a contest where the winner would get to sit next to Chelsea at tonight's debate. I'm not sure who won, but the camera just showed a new Clinton endorser -- Los Angeles area-Rep. Maxine Waters -- next to the former first daughter
Clinton delivered a, dare I say, more inspirational explanation of why government is not a business in answering the question why are either one of you more qualified than Romney to run the country since they haven't run a business. She talked about standing up for values, etc.
Obama, in turn, decided to turn the screws and stick the knife in Romney, saying Romney hasn't gotten much of a return on his investment during this presidential campaign, adding that he'd be happy to compare his management style to Romney's over the last year of this campaign. Yikes.
This appears to be a very polite but substantive debate so far. The health care discussion should make the wonk wing of the Democratic Party very happy. The most striking thing about this confrontation so far is the improvement in Obama as a debater. There was a time that the gap between Clinton and Obama at these debates was vast. Tonight, there's hardly a difference; Obama's benefitting big time from the no-time limit rule. Clinton, btw, is doing well herself; both are making a very professional and, frankly, nice impressions to what is likely to be one of the largest debate audiences to date.
Obama is full throttle on immigration these days,
voluntarily bringing up the issue at rallies and town halls and
compared to Iowa fully expressing his views on how he thinks the issue
has been demonized and turned into a "political football."
To get how far he's come on this answer... take a look at what he said South Central LA today: "I
think it's very important that we have an intelligent debate about
immigration that is not tinged with our attitudes of what people should
look like who come here. Cause my attitude is everybody should come here.
My father when he came here, he didn't look like you know - he didn't
look like he stepped off the Mayflower, you know. ... And let me remind
everybody that not everybody who came in through Ellis Island had their
papers in order. I'm just telling the truth now. Not everybody was all -- you know -- all had their stuff together, so we just need to remember
that."
Touche...
To get how far he's come on this answer... take a look at what he said South Central LA today:
"I think it's very important that we have an intelligent debate about immigration that is not tinged with our attitudes of what people should look like who come here. Cause my attitude everybody should come here. My father when he come here, he didn't look like you know - he didn't look like he stepped off the Mayflower, you know. ... And let me remind everybody that not everybody who came in through Ellis Island had their papers in order. I'm just telling the truth now. Not everybody was all – you know – all had their stuff together, so we just need to remember that."
The question about immigration costing jobs for minorities was a tricky one. Obama answered well; Clinton answered it better. She seemed to get right to the heart of the question which was about jobs. I'm guessing Obama's answer played well in Arizona and California, while Clinton's answer played well in, say, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
tackle taxes
together, I'm reminded of what many Democrats said waaaaaaay back in
the day in September and October when the race was still somewhat civil and many
spoke longingly of an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket. A far-flung wish that wouldn't make the choice between these candidates so
hard but one that will most probably remain a pipe dream....
The moderators did Obama a big favor by giving him the first immigration question, which he used to bash the GOP over some of its anti-immigration views.
...that Obama just used in response to the tax-and-spend question is a common Hillary line too. NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli also points out that he heard Huckabee say the same line in September.
NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds that John McCain is a name that's been slippping off Obama's tongue with ease lately. He was featured in his major speech on electability yesterday, when Obama said he would be the best candidate to present a clear contrast with McCain. He mentioned him again this morning at a town hall in East LA when Obama said that along with McCain he fought for immigration reform. And now he's brought him up again at the debate...
And NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes... So just as Mitt Romney decides to go up on Feb. 5 after all, Barack Obama gives him a little free media with his attack on McCain on the Bush tax cuts.
...but from the other angle. Obama went after McCain (wheels off the Straight Talk Express) for now saying he'd be for the Bush tax cuts when he voted against them the first two go rounds. The Romney campaign has also been hitting McCain on this, but from the angle that the tax cuts were a good thing. Obama argues that never before has the U.S. CUT taxes in a time of war.
BTW, the rules of this debate may favor Obama. He's never been good with time limits and tonight, there are no limits. Meanwhile, the setting may favor Clinton because both candidates are seated and Obama's height advantage isn't as great.
as this debate begins. All sweetness so far. Have to wonder which
candidate thinks showing anger will hurt them the most?
Also
interesting how Clinton compares her healthcare plan to Edwards'
openly...only now that he's out of the race. An attempt to win over his
supporters?
We just had our first Ted Kennedy mention by Obama...
Each candidate talked about Edwards in each of their first two opportunities to talk.
Clinton and Obama's opening statements really highlight politics -- and why Americans find politics contradictory, not straightforward and sometimes illogical.
Obama talked about how Clinton and he were friends, are friends and will be friends after this is over. What do they say? Oh yeah... with friends like those...
With a smile, Clinton spoke nicely of both of them, even said she believes one of them will be the next president of the United States. But then in selling herself, she delivered this familiar subtle dig on Obama: that Americans should vote for someone who's ready on "Day One." So, in implying -- again -- that Obama is not ready on Day One, why then should any American vote for him? If he's not ready on Day One, why would she then believe that we should be looking at the next president between the two of them. Going further then, are none of the Republicans ready on Day One either? Is Hillary Clinton the only one who's ready on Day One?
Ah, politics.
We're more than 20 minutes into the debate and neither campaign has sent a fact-check out to the press (unless my spam filter is working overtime).
So how badly does Obama want John Edwards' endorsement? Obama's now name-dropped him twice in the first 15 minutes.
Asked their policy differences, Clinton mentioned health care, home mortgage policy, and talking with unsavory leaders (she is against meeting with those folks in her first year in office).
Obama parried those differences -- and brought up Iraq and eliminating the influence of lobbyists.
So, far everyone is on message.
So far, it appears the two candidates want to be Mr. and Mrs. Nice Guy and Gal.
The TWU represents New York City subway workers, Philadelphia bus drivers, Southwest Airlines flight attendants, baggage handlers and others. The largest union is in New York -- a Feb. 5 state -- and could play an active role there. In other Feb. 5 states, there are members in California and New Jersey.
Obama obliged, sounding positively Edwards-esque in a town hall at Los Angeles Trade Technical College, told the crowd that the system wasn't "designed for us."
"Too many people today feel like the system is not designed for people like us. They feel like the education system isn't designed for people like us, and the job market isn't designed for people like us," identifying himself with the predominantly Latino and African-American crowd and making a clear acknowledgment of racial disparities obtaining mortgages, health care and economic opportunities in the United States.
"[Green technology] will create a great, great future for California and for the United States and the world. Now talking about a great future, this is the very reason why I am endorsing Senator McCain to be the next president of the United States, because I'm interested in a great future and I think that Senator McCain has proven over and over again that he is reaching across the aisle in order to get things done," Schwarzenegger said.
McCain has been criticized for reaching across the aisle a little too far during his long senate career, damaging his conservative credentials and making it hard for him to find success with conservative voters in a virtual national presidential primary. Endorsements from moderate Republicans like Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani don't help him combat this reputation, but at today's press conference he didn't seem concerned.
On the exchange over Iraq last night, "I think he took a big detour on the strait talk express," Romney said.
Does it call into question his credentials to be president? "No I think he's a fine man," Romney said.
On endorsements, Romney basically said, Rudy and Arnold aren't surprising -- they're moderates.
“I could never, never, ever be anything but honored by the presence of these two great American heroes,” said the Arizona senator in reply, quickly adding that Perry, who is much more conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage, will be backing him.
Perry’s endorsement is likely a by-product of Rudy’s dropping out of the race and supporting McCain.
But a bit of context here: National Journal used 99 Senate votes in 2007 as the basis for its rankings, and because he was on the presidential campaign trail, Obama missed a third of those votes. (According to the magazine, Obama voted the liberal way 65 out of 66 votes. Clinton, meanwhile, voted the liberal way in 77 out of her 82 votes).
National Journal's vote ratings became an issue in the 2004 general election, when Republicans used the magazine's ranking of John Kerry as the most liberal senator of 2003 to label the then-Democratic nominee as the "most liberal senator" -- even though that was his rating for just that one year, when (like Obama did) he missed quite a few Senate votes due to being on the presidential campaign trail.
As National Journal's editor wrote back then, "[O]ur magazine -- or, more precisely, our annual congressional vote ratings edition -- has become a Republican talking point in the 2004 presidential campaign. And that's been a fascinating, and disconcerting, experience. Fascinating because we're more used to being cited in congressional hearings than on the Today show. Disconcerting because the shorthand used to describe our ratings of Kerry and Edwards is sometimes misleading -- or just plain wrong."
Indeed, while Obama ranks as the magazine's most liberal senator of 2007, his ranking was 16th in 2005 and 10th in 2006.
Another question that might come up is why the magazine released its voting ratings now -- just days before Super Tuesday. In fact, the magazine says it full congressional ratings won't come out until March. But, according to the editor in a Q&A published in the magazine: "Back in December, we decided that we would publish the ratings of the presidential candidates as soon as they became available, rather than wait until our annual Vote Ratings issue on March 8. We thought it would be irresponsible to keep those scores under wraps during the height of the presidential primary season."
And like with Obama's overall liberal score, rivals and critics could possibly seize on McCain's social rating....
Full disclosure: This reporter worked and wrote for National Journal from 1997 to 2003.
Per Plouffe, the amount will allow the campaign to financially compete through March or April if needed. He also said their donors are part of a grassroots efforts making voter contact in the different states.
The Obama campaign will also be up on air in the primaries and caucuses on Saturday, Feb. 9th (Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington), the Maine caucuses on the 10th, as well as the Mid-Atlantic primary states on Feb. 12th (DC, Maryland, Virginia).
Playing the role of front-runner at a debate for the first time (or at least since the last time these guys met at the Reagan Library), McCain proved to be more well spoken on domestic issues than he was at the last debate. But going forward, assuming he’s the GOP nominee, the Arizona Republican is going to have to get more comfortable talking about domestic issues or he will face much bigger problems in the general. He was better last night on the domestic front, but he's still got a ways to go. By the way, it shouldn't be overlooked at how McCain took every opportunity he could to take a dig at Romney; he seemed almost gleeful about it.
The Obama campaign holds a conference call with reporters at 9:30 am ET to discuss its February 5 strategy.
More: The "candidates know the state, flush with delegates, cannot be easily discarded. But the vastness of California, the high cost of advertising here -- a statewide television buy can run over $2 million for a week -- and the sheer impossibility of traversing its myriad Congressional districts in a day, even with the help of chartered aircraft, have forced the candidates to keep their distance from here. For those who would be president, California is like an inaccessible love interest, stared at from across the country with both longing and frustration, its suitors aggrieved by their fumbling inability to connect."
Remember, McCain won the state’s primary in 2000. This could be an embarrassing moment for Romney should he not win his home state by an impressive margin.
The campaign unveiled plans for a live web video-based town hall meeting on Feb. 4. From the campaign: "We believe it will be the first time in presidential campaign history that voters in the Super Tuesday states will have their voices heard in a single national town hall. The event, called ‘Voices Across America: A National Town Hall’ will be simulcast starting at 9 p.m. EST on hillaryclinton.com. The 22 cities where the campaign will host events are Birmingham, AL; Phoenix, AZ; Little Rock, AR; Los Angeles, CA; San Francisco, CA; Denver, CO; Hartford, CT; Wilmington, DE; Athens, GA; Boise, ID; Chicago, IL; Wichita, KS; Boston, MA; St. Paul, MN; Kansas City, MO; Cherry Hill, NJ; Albuquerque, NM; New York, NY; Grand Forks, ND; Tulsa, OK; Knoxville, TN; Salt Lake City, UT.
“Mr. Giuliani's donors may be as important to Mr. McCain as voters, since the new Republican front-runner has been struggling for cash for much of his campaign. Yesterday, Mr. McCain's campaign released his finance report for the fourth quarter of 2007 showing $4.5 million in debts."
In the '96 cycle, Democrats couldn't prevent a slew of Democrats who either survived '94 (in the House) or didn't think they'd win in '96 (in the Senate) because the poll numbers for the incumbent Democratic president were horribly low. Of course, Clinton came back and ended up winning re-election handily. But the hole the congressional Democratic retirees dug was so deep, the Democrats still lost Senate seats and couldn't win back enough House seats to win back control.
There were a few moments where it appeared McCain and Romney would really started tangling in tonight's CNN/L.A. Times/Politico debate, but it was just that, a precious few moments.
Romney wasn't happy about the criticism McCain leveled at him about timetables in Iraq. He said it was a dirty trick because it came days before Florida. Well, maybe so, but it should also serve as a comfort to nervous Republicans about McCain's ability to play hardball in the general. McCain may seem like a guy who likes to reach across the aisle but he's not afraid to get dirty. McCain will be a very clever general election candidate; it won't all be kumbaya with Clinton or Obama.
Romney's pushback, btw, that if this was an issue, then why didn't he raise it earlier, wasn't a great debate comeback moment. As I've noted before, Romney just doesn't come across well when he's angry.
Overall, Romney seemed simply ticked off. It was as if he realized the end was near and he didn't know how to stop it. He tried to go after McCain, politely mind you, but didn't trip the newly crowned frontrunner up.
The question Romney must be asking himself is what is his ultimate goal now? Should he do everything he can to stop McCain now or should he figure out how to run, but do so with dignity so he can keep his options open in the future, should McCain fail to win the general. As McCain is about to prove, the GOP regularly nominates the runners-up in previous primaries; Reagan, Bush and Dole to name a few. Romney, though, does need to play the conservative critic of McCain for a certain length of time in order to win the loyalty of the conservatives who aren't happy with McCain now. These folks could serve Romney well in '12 or '16.
McCain, in the role of frontrunner at a debate for the first time in nearly a year (well, actually, since the last time these guys met at the Reagan Library), proved to be more well spoken on domestic issues than he was at the last debate.
Going forward, assuming McCain is the GOP nominee, the Arizona Republican is going to have to get more comfortable talking about domestic issues or he will face much bigger problems in the general. He was better tonight on the domestic front, but he's still got a ways to go.
BTW, I love this spin from McCain that if his tax cut plan had gotten through in 2001, instead of Bush's, he would be able to propose new tax cuts now. Now there's some optimism!
The most difficult thing for many of us watching these debates for a living is that we're having a hard time finding new things to say just as the candidates are having a hard time saying anything new.
For instance, how many times have I written some version of the following: Mike Huckabee probably stuck out for his humor and seemingly straight talk. Yet again, Huckabee got to play Mr. Nice Guy and it will probably be enough to siphon off conservative vote from Romney in order to deliver McCain a few more delegates than he should be winning if this were a pure 1-on-1.
But McCain may have won this debate before it ever started because the Giuliani endorsement today and the Schwarzenegger endorsement tomorrow appear to be trumping anything that happened tonight.
I fully admit to now be reacting to the debate via TiVO now (some of us are trying to catch up on home life). Anyway, about half way through the debate, McCain was asked if he'd vote for his original immigration reform proposal and his response was that the bill won't get to the senate floor so he didn't really answer the question. Frankly, it sounded like an early Hillary Clinton spin when she was asked if she regretted her Iraq war vote. She used to answer, if we knew then what we know now, there never would have been a vote. On its face, the McCain and Clinton answers sound like answers, but they also sound like ducks.
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. -- The
press shop found the "send" button on its e-mail program once more. The
counterattacks started flying electronically, just like Romney's
smacks back and forth with McCain have kicked up in the second half of
the debate.
Although the Romney camp is churning debate-opposition as usual, the
media's inboxes are notably emptier now that McCain seems comfortably
seated at the top and Giuliani is out of the race. Huckabee's shop was
never too active on the opposition email front, but it is a different
debate inside the media tent now that the field has narrowed.
looked confident after his win last night. Romney said it angers
him when "someone" accuses him of holding a position he doesn't hold.
McCain then engaged Romney directly, looking confident that this was a
winning issue for him. The back and forth then seemed to get a little
out of hand, but it seems that McCain is not scared to go right after
him now that he his getting more comfortable with his role as
'frontrunner.'
Multiple sources tell NBC
News that Gov. Arnold.
and
offer his endorsement tomorrow in the LA area.
Romney certainly said the words "timetable" and "milestone," but certainly not in the way McCain frames it. McCain seems to willfully mischaracterize Romney's remarks, as Romney also makes clear in the following clip that he would not support a date certain for troop withdrawal.
What Romney did say was that he thought it was appropriate to have private timetables and milestones between Bush and Maliki. McCain's point may be that Romney even used the words at all. And he's more than willing to use it to his advantage in his political campaign, even if the larger point is inaccurate.
"Well, there’s no question that the president and Prime Minister Al Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about, but those shouldn’t be for public pronouncement. You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone. You want to have a series of things accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government.
It was then pointed out to Romney that President Bush has said he would not support anything from Congress with a date certain for withdrawal. He was asked where he stands and if he would do the same. His response:
"Well, of course, can you imagine the setting where during the second world war we said to the Germans, ‘Gee if we haven’t reached the Rhine by this date, well, we’ll go home’ or ‘if we haven’t gotten this accomplished we’ll pull up and leave.’ You don’t publish that to your enemy or they’ll just lie and wait til that time. So, of course, you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don’t do that with the opposition."
One of the more interesting things in the past week is how McCain -- despite his success in Florida -- took some hits in his Straight Talk armor. The most notable example came when he argued that Romney supported a secret plan for withdrawal from Iraq. Most professional truth-squaders and fact-checkers concluded that McCain was distorting Romney's months-old quote.
And at tonight's debate, we've seen McCain sidestep some legitimate questions -- 1) why he said he opposed the Bush tax cuts because they favored the wealthy and 2) if he would have voted today for his McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, which provided for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. "My bill will not be voted on," he said, not directly answering the question.
Of course, any observer of politics will tell you that politicians exaggerate and sidestep tough questions all the time. But, fair or not, someone who has this Straight Talk persona gets held to a different standard -- just like Obama gets held to a different standard when he preaches a different kind of politics, but gets bogged down with a guy like Tony Rezko.
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. -- It's been a quiet
afternoon from the Romney campaign. Very few press releases were sent
from a campaign that tends to flood reporters' inboxes.
True,
the campaign's top communications staffers were stuck on a plane for
hours as they traveled from one coast to another. And while they were
likely prepping the candidate for tonight's debate once they got here
(although they could have done that on the two-leg, six-hour-plus plane
ride), they were wheels down five hours before the debate even began.
And
tonight, during a debate that First Read has already deemed lacking in
passion, the e-mail debate counterattacks have tapered off in contrast
to previous, more contentious debates. The Romney team has let several
fly -- most focused on McCain and the Bush tax cuts. McCain's team has
issued fewer than Romney's so far.
Listen closely to McCain tonight and going forward, and you'll likely notice a clear appeal -- to conservatives. His weakness is with these conservatives. McCain 1.0 knew this when he tried to court the Bush core -- evangelicals and others way back when he was the heir apparent. Now, heir apparent 2.0 finds himself again needing to coalesce that group.
"I believe in getting rates down," Romney said, after subtly hitting
McCain for opposing Bush's tax cuts because they unfairly favored the
wealthy. The "rates" that Romney was talking about appears to be a
defense of Reagan-omics, or cuts for the rich that will eventually
trickle down to the poor. This does little to help his image as a
corporate candidate.
Huckabee is sticking by his road-to-anywhere stimulus plan. (First, it was more roads in Florida to make more jobs. Now, it's California.) As Romney points out, building infrastructure is important, but Huckanomics won't get immediate help to those who most need it.
is reporting that at this juncture, the wealthy Romney won't be deluging us with any more ads like the campaign has done for months and months.
Several
minutes before this story went up, spokesman Kevin Madden was asked if
any decisions had been made about ads yet, and he said "not yet."
Two notes, however, the story says that today was a good day of fundraising for Romney, and the strategy could change. And
don't miss this line: "But they added that in discussions so far, the
former Massachusetts governor had selected the least costly of a
variety of options prepared for his review."
The California governor, who is in the audience at the debate, said there would be "no news today" from him on a possible endorsement of McCain. But he did say that with Rudy's departure "the
dynamics have changed"...it sounds like an endorsement will come
tomorrow. There was also UNCOMFIRMED talk of such an endorsement on the
McCain plane today. The
is reporting that it's going to happen, per NBC's Jesse Rodriguez.
"The two will appear together Thursday in Los Angeles to discuss global
warming and climate change at at a green technology company in Los
Angeles, said Aaron McLear, the governor's press secretary," the Bee writes. "Officials
for McCain and Schwarzenegger would not confirm that the endorsement is
forthcoming. But the governor himself suggested that former New York
Mayor Rudy Giuliani's departure from the race and endorsement of McCain
today had him reconsidering his earlier plan to stay neutral."
Anyone else just experience a little deja vu with Mike Huckabee complaining about not being included in the debate? He sounded very similar to John Edwards during the last Democratic debate, complaining about being included.
Did Romney just make a debate mistake? He just answered McCain's charge rather than deflect and attack back. McCain deflected the conservative charge and instead went right at Romney. College debate coaches would score this exchange to McCain.
Even though both candidates are content dumping the negative oppo at each other, this is lifeless. There is limited to no passion. McCain sits back and waits. Romney feigns outrage. Doesn't this feel like an after-thought, a beauty contest?
Nothing like being seated to keep things fairly cool. Romney definitely hit McCain just now (thanks to the question) but the tone was friendly. And McCain's whacking right back, clearly not taking any chances.
SIMI
VALLEY, Ca. – At a very well attended press conference here just a few
hours before he was scheduled to participate in yet another GOP debate,
Rudy Giuliani announced his departure from the presidential race and
his endorsement of John McCain.
"I'm fully aboard,
100%," Giuliani said, announcing that if McCain would have him, he
plans on campaigning on the senator's behalf in Feb 5th states. "I
don't do things half way. I do them 100%, and when I believe in a man
– like I do John McCain – this will become, to me, as important as my
own election was."
With Cindy McCain looking on
adoringly, Giuliani added more evidence to the 'anti-Mitt Romney' story
line, as GOP establishment becomes more content lining up behind
McCain's candidacy.
"There will be a clear choice this
November and I believe that my life has prepared me for a life of
service and a life of dedication," McCain said. "My strong right arm
and my partner and my friend in this effort will be the former mayor of
New York City, all-American hero, Rudy Giuliani."
Anyone else notice a negative tone in Mitt Romney's first answer? Is he not over Florida? He just seemed exasperated answering that first question about the economy; he even challenged the premise of the question.
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. -- No, Mike
not endorsing anyone else
today. But it was clear from his comments today which of the remaining
Republican rivals he’s least fond of.
Speaking to
reporters before a fundraiser in the O.C., Huckabee laid out a
post-Florida landscape that includes one fewer candidate, and in his
eye, just one true conservative. “A lot of people in the Republican
Party are looking for what they might call the real conservative,” he
said. “If the people in the Republican Party are looking for an
authentic conservative and a consistent one, not a
Johnny-come-lately-gee-I-think
-I’m-gonna-become-a-conservative-this-year, they’re gonna find that I’m their choice.”
Huckabee
said that Giuliani’s withdrawal from the race “is probably not as big a
factor for me,” joking: “What would be a bigger factor is if Romney and
McCain dropped out today.” Asked if he’d split conservative votes with
Romney, the former Arkansas governor was more explicit in his critique
of the former Massachusetts governor. “Romney’s record is not a
conservative record,” he said. “I feel like [if] people are gonna start
now deciding that if they want a person who’s rhetoric and record are
truly conservative, they only have one place to go. That would be me.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddCheers to CNN for starting this debate almost on time. No doubt that the GOP candidates' demand for a 90 min. debate instead of 2 hours cut into the intro time.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
NORMAN, OK -- For a second-straight day, Bill Clinton did what he rarely does: not make news.
He didn't mention John Edwards' departure from the presidential campaign, and didn't say anything of note about last week's South Carolina results.
He did mention McCain in passing, as he often does, when he referencing his wife's bipartisan projects, saying that she respects McCain but disagrees with him on issues like "100 more years in Iraq."
Bill Clinton was slightly stronger than normal on electability, trying to debunk the perception that she is a polarizing figure. "The big rap on her is Republicans don't like her. She's so polarizing, nobody'll ever vote for her. Here's what happened: She goes to the Senate, and more than any other person running for president has a stunning record of passing legislation with Republicans. "
Chelsea accompanied her father to the largely student-attended rally here (somewhere upwards of 4,500 in attendance.) She will appear with him later tonight in Denver.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
LITTLE ROCK, AR -- At a 13-minute media availability here, Clinton addressed Edwards' withdrawal from the presidential field.
"I want to start by expressing my appreciation and admiration to Sen. Edwards, to Elizabeth and to their family for their years of public service and advocacy on behalf of those who needed a champion and particularly during this campaign," she said. "He has made poverty a centerpiece of his candidacy, and it needs to be on the top of the list of American priorities. And I'm very pleased that he in his announcement just a few minutes ago talked about how we're all as Democrats going to work to make sure that poverty remains on the agenda, to do everything we can during this campaign and then once we take back the White House, to address the needs of people who are invisible as I've been saying through my campaign."
"I want to wish John and Elizabeth well and thank him for running a great campaign that was really important to millions and millions of Americans."
In a question about how Edwards' departure might affect the race, Clinton replied, "I don't know. I'm going to leave that to the political pundits and writers, like yourself, because now is a time to really thank him for his service, to recognize the sacrifices that it takes for any family to go through a presidential campaign and to keep he and Elizabeth and their family in our thoughts and prayers as they move forward."
Later in the press conference, Clinton wouldn't comment on potential race between her and McCain. And asked about whether she's had a conversation with Bill Clinton about being more subdued on the campaign trail, Clinton replied -- as she usually says -- that she's proud of him promoting her candidacy. But that this is about her campaign and about her candidacy.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
DENVER, CO -- There were two clear targets in Obama's speech at the University of Denver on Wednesday morning -- one named (McCain), the other alluded to (Clinton).
In a speech the day after McCain won the Florida Republican primary, becoming that party's new presidential front-runner, Obama argued that the Democrats can't start the general election with half the electoral map against them -- and that they can't take on McCain when their nominee has the same positions as he does on foreign policy issues.
"It's time for new leadership that understands that the way to win a debate with John McCain is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq; who agreed with him in voting give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran…" Obama said, also pointing to Clinton's positions on torture and diplomacy.
The fact that there were no longer two potential obstacles to the Republican nomination but one was clear when Obama began his speech with words of praise for Edwards, who dropped his bid for the presidency early this morning.
"So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives (John and Elizabeth Edwards) endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America," Obama said. He named every candidate in the race, including Senator Hillary Clinton, and called them "an all-star cast," but the praise didn't overshadow the thrust of Obama's argument that he -- and not Clinton -- is the best choice for the Democratic party.
CONTINUED >>
Our friends over at Hotline's On Call have Clinton's remarks on Edwards' exit.
"Well, Sen. Edwards is a friend of mine, he was a colleague in the Senate, and I have the highest regard for him, and I’m really admiring of what he has done to make sure that poverty was on the agenda here in America," she said in an interview with WBRC. "He encouraged all of us in his passion and advocacy, and I hope he will continue that work because it is really important that we stay focused on what we’re going to do to help people."
"You know, I’m out here talking about making the economy work for everybody. And it needs to work for the middle class, working people, it needs to give a life line to poor people like we did in the 1990s, so in any way that I can be part of this effort to try to target poverty I am going to be."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Obama is the first out of the gate to issue a statement on Edwards' exit. "John Edwards has spent a lifetime fighting to give voice to the voiceless and hope to the struggling, even when it wasn't popular to do or covered in the news. At a time when our politics is too focused on who's up and who's down, he made a nation focus again on who matters - the New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington."
Obama added, "John and Elizabeth Edwards have always believed deeply that we can change this - that two Americans can become one, and that our country can rally around this common purpose. So while his campaign may end today, the cause of their lives endures for all of us who still believe that we can achieve that dream of one America."
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Today's news that Edwards is dropping out of the race is surprising -- in that he gave every indication he would compete in the February 5 states, and even beyond. He was a man on a mission.
But that mission ends today. While many will attribute Edwards departure to all the attention on Clinton and Obama -- and there has been a lot of attention on those two! -- the fact is that Edwards based his entire candidacy on the first four contests, especially Iowa. And after he finished second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, he no longer had a realistic path to winning the nomination.
Winning Iowa would have changed all that. In fact, it's worth noting that the two Johns -- Edwards and McCain -- had about the same amount of media attention a month before Iowa. The difference was that McCain was able to win in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which set the stage for last night's Florida victory. (Of course, McCain also benefited by not having the equivalents of a Clinton or an Obama in the GOP field -- say a Jeb Bush or perhaps a Mark Sanford.)
All that said, Edwards and his team ran a fine campaign. They easily won the ideas primary (on health care, poverty). Edwards was an excellent debater. And the candidate displayed a deep passion that we don't see from many politicians nowadays.
But perhaps the biggest hurdle Edwards faced -- and didn't clear -- was that Democratic voters aren't too kind to repeat candidates. Look at what happened to Gephardt four years ago. Or even Biden this year. In fact, it could be an obstacle if Obama doesn't end up the Dem nominee and decides to run four or eight years from now. (Gore was a repeat candidate who won the nomination in '00, but he was the vice president.)
Compare that with a Republican Party that likes to reward repeat candidates: Reagan in '80, Dole in '96, and maybe McCain in '08.
It isn't easy being a Democrat making another presidential bid.
So where does Edwards' support go? In South Carolina, Edwards won white men. Could this become the new swing voting group? Obama does well with white men in general election match-ups, but has seen his support drop among these folks in the primary. Now, if Obama has any shot at beating Clinton, he's going to have to win this key voting bloc. It's rare white guys are considered a swing vote, but in a Clinton vs. Obama race, it appears they will. Obama needs them more than Clinton.
As for an endorsement, some Edwards folks claim anything is possible. But in chats with numerous Edwards partisans, it's pretty clear they'd be shocked if he threw his support to Clinton. So for now, the options appear to be sit or support Obama.
From NBC's John Yang and NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
The end is rarely pretty.
The morning after it was reported that Giuliani was dropping out was particularly chaotic for the campaign. The traveling press corps was asked to be in the lobby at 7:30 am to be bused to the airport for a 9:00 am flight to Los Angeles, including a refueling stop in Texas.
But the only buses that showed up were for a meeting of Wendy's franchisees.
The mayor departed the hotel -- in a pick-up truck.
Still no buses. And no campaign aides to tell us exactly where we were going and what we'd do when we got there.
Calls to officials revealed that more and more of them were heading home to New York instead of accompanying the mayor.
And still no buses.
A campaign aide said there was a problem and that we should get ourselves to the airport.
A fleet of cabs took the assembled reporters to the plane in time to see campaign officials campaign manager Mike DuHaime, campaign advisor Tony Carbonetti, former deputy mayors Randy Mastro and Joe Lhota and the ubiquitous celebrity endorser Jon Voight board the plane. Giuliani boarded carrying his own suit bag. His wife, Judith, was not with him.
And on the tarmac: The buses that were to carry the press to the plane.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** We now have a GOP front-runner: Just a month ago, McCain was in fourth place nationally in our NBC/WSJ poll (at 14%), and he was even fourth in Florida (at 13%), according to a late December Quinnipiac University survey. But after winning Florida last night -- a race that was open only to Republicans (so no independents and crossover Dems) -- McCain has now become the undisputed GOP front-runner heading into next week’s Tsunami Tuesday. How did he do it? Well, he did well among his usual coalition of those over 65, veterans, folks who don’t consider themselves very conservative, and people who don’t attend weekly church services. But the endorsement from Cuba-born Sen. Mel Martinez (R) also seems to have helped: Per the exit polls, McCain won more than 50% of the Hispanic and Cuban vote. McCain lost white voters, but demolished Romney among Hispanics. And then there was Amendment 1, the ballot measure that would cut property taxes in the state. (While Clinton and the Florida Democratic Party are celebrating the large number of voters last night, the ballot measure played a HUGE role in driving turnout.) As one GOP source tells us, Amendment 1 backers did two million calls the three days of the election, many of them to low-propensity Republicans (i.e., likely McCain voters). As the source says, that “helped McCain by turning out less hard-core conservatives.”
*** McCain’s long road back: There was a reason many didn't want to completely write off McCain last summer when he stared defeat in its face. The lesson of John Kerry was just too fresh in our minds. Still, count us as just as surprised by McCain's regained front-runner status. Now the guy has to do something he's never done before: hang on to that front-runner tag. He’s at his best when he's running from behind, which may make him uniquely suited to be the GOP nominee since the party is clearly facing an uphill battle in 2008. In the spring of ‘07, McCain tried too hard to become the inevitable nominee. Now he can rightfully go about this strategy. Don't be surprised if the next days are filled with major Republican rank-and-file members falling in line behind McCain. The train may very well finally be leaving the station. It took eight long years, but he's on the cusp of vindication.
*** One on one? Or two on one? Romney has seven days to coalesce the anti-McCain forces. It's probably not enough time, but Romney needs to think about the future. He may very well decide that the smart play is to follow the Reagan '76 model and simply hang around. McCain still hasn't proved he can win a two-way, and Romney's camp probably has the stats to back up the idea that he can beat McCain head-to-head if the opportunity ever presented itself. The problem is, it may not with Huckabee looking to stick around for a while. McCain could wind up with some 600-plus delegates next week without crossing 50% in many places.
*** Rudy bows out: More good news for McCain will come today when Giuliani -- from the Reagan Library in California, before tonight’s GOP debate there -- officially drops out of the GOP race and endorses the Arizona senator. Not only does he pick up an endorsement from America’s Mayor, but he no longer has to compete with a man who was attracting many of the same voters. (The same can’t be said of Romney, who will continue to compete with Huckabee for GOP conservatives.) As for Giuliani’s departure from the race… While many pundits will say, "See, we told you a pro-choice, pro-gay rights Republican couldn't get the nomination," that wasn't the reason Giuliani didn't make it. He didn't make it because he didn't run very hard. He seemed to want the nomination handed to him; there was a fire missing. This wasn't the Giuliani of '89 or '93 that New York City voters came to both love and loathe.
*** Hillary Rodman Knievel: Did Clinton proclaiming “victory” last night in Florida -- which the Washington Post’s Milbank said was a “political stunt worthy of the late Evel Knievel” -- actually work? It’s unclear. Most of the papers this morning either buried the Dem results or prefaced them with warnings that the contest didn’t really award delegates. That said, it gave her plenty of face time on the cable networks and essentially ended the two-day Ted Kennedy story. According to the exit polls, Clinton won among almost all groups, which wasn’t much of a surprise given that polls for months had shown her holding a large lead in the uncontested race. But this is an interesting finding: Clinton won big among those who voted absentee or made up their minds a long time ago. But Obama won among those who made up their mind in the last month and the last week. *** UPDATE *** We forgot to mention that Clinton beat Obama, 34%-30%, among those who made up their minds on the day of the primary. The point we were making, however, is that Obama did much better among those who made up their minds late in the process, versus those who decided a long time ago.
*** Keep an eye on Edwards: Meanwhile, Edwards gives a speech at 1:00 pm ET from New Orleans -- the place he began his presidential campaign. Could this be a possible bookend? There’s a lot of chatter that Edwards could use this speech to officially bow out of the race, but we’ve been unable to confirm it. Is he getting out? Or is a move to grab some attention from the Clinton-Obama race? Stay tuned… *** UPDATE *** NBC News has learned that Edwards will indeed drop out today...more on that later.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton is in Arkansas and Atlanta; Huckabee makes four stops in California; McCain is in Florida and California; Obama’s in Denver and Phoenix; Bill Clinton campaigns in Illinois, Denver, and Oklahoma; and Chelsea Clinton speaks at colleges in Utah.
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 6 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 13 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 34 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 279 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 356 days
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With 99% of the precincts reporting, McCain won 36%-31% over Romney. Giuliani finished a distant third with 15% and Huckabee was fourth at 13%.
The New York Times calls McCain the "frontrunner" in its lead. "The results were a decisive turning point in the Republican race, effectively winnowing the field to Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney, two candidates with very different backgrounds who have little affection for one another but share a similar challenge in winning over elements of the party suspicious of their ideological credentials."
More: "Romney made clear that he would go all-out in the coming week, as the presidential race builds toward its biggest day so far, a set of more than 20 contests across the country on Tuesday. He and Mr. McCain fought an increasingly bitter battle in Florida, and they now seem likely to take their messages to the national stage, with Mr. Romney trying to portray Mr. McCain as out of step with his party on critical issues and ill-equipped to deal with the economic downturn and with Mr. McCain suggesting that Mr. Romney’s principles yield too easily to the political winds and that he cannot be trusted on national security."
McCain’s win “puts him in the best position of any candidate to take control of his party's presidential campaign next week, when states containing half the country's population go to the polls,” the Boston Globe writes.
CONTINUED >>
On the Dem side last night, Clinton got 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14%.
The Washington Post’s Milbank writes, “Yes, Clinton, as expected, beat Barack Obama by a wide margin in the Florida primary. But all the Democratic candidates had agreed months ago to boycott the contest after the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of its delegates to punish the state for moving up its primary date. The result was a primary without purpose, a show about nothing. But in a political stunt worthy of the late Evel Knievel, the Clinton campaign decided to put on an ersatz victory party that, it hoped, would erase memories of Obama's actual victory Saturday night in South Carolina's Democratic primary. ‘Thank you, Florida Democrats!’ Clinton shouted to the cheering throng. ‘I am thrilled to have this vote of confidence.’”
The New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton’s victory was expected and may have largely reflected her prominence on the national political scene for almost two decades. She did well among those who cast their votes early; among late deciders, Mr. Obama matched her almost one for one, according to exit polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.”
The New York Daily News’ lead on the Dem Florida contest: “Hillary Clinton flew to Florida Tuesday night to cheer a victory here that doesn't count -- at least not yet.”
CLINTON: The New York Daily News says Bill Clinton was “on best behavior” while campaigning in New Jersey.
“Noncandidate Bill Clinton got more mentions in presidential campaign coverage last week than any of the Republicans who actually have their names on ballots, according to a study of media stories released yesterday.”
Maureen Dowd takes Obama's side in "the snub" controversy. "Knowing that it helped her when Obama seemed to be surly with her during the New Hampshire debate, telling her without looking up from his notes that she was ‘likable enough’ — another instance of Obama not being able to hide his bruised feelings — Hillary went on ABC News last night to insinuate that he was rude Monday. ‘Well, I reached my hand out in friendship and unity and my hand is still reaching out,’ she said, lapsing back into the dissed-woman mode. ‘And I look forward to shaking his hand sometime soon.’”
“Something’s being stretched here, but it’s not her hand. She wasn’t reaching out to him at all."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The New York Daily News calls Giuliani’s fall a “tragic collapse.”
"As Mr. Giuliani ponders his political mortality, many advisers and political observers point to the hubris and strategic miscalculations that plagued his campaign. He allowed a tight coterie of New York aides, none with national political experience, to run much of his campaign."
“After nearly a full year of leading in the polls and dodging early fumbles, his image of electability sank as his poll numbers tumbled. He faced mountains of negative stories about disgraced ally Bernie Kerik, and spent two weeks punching at shadows over reports alleging that, while mayor, he deliberately hid security expenses related to his then-mistress.”
ROMNEY: Time's Scherer looks at what Romney can do next. "This final Romney gambit is likely to determine more than just the fate of one, well-heeled candidate. It could set the course for the Republican Party. In the old days, those who supported tax cuts for the wealthy worked closely with those who wanted to amend the constitution to ban gay marriage. Those who wanted to grow the size of the military made common cause with those who saw global warming as an environmentalist scare-tactic meant to interfere with free markets. Those who wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade also wanted to overturn campaign finance reform.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
ST. PETERSBURG, FL -- Before Romney had heard any of the speculation about Giuliani dropping out of the race or endorsing McCain, he called the former New York City mayor tonight to “congratulate him on running an honorable race,” according to Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom. On stage, the candidate said that he also called the Arizona senator to congratulate him on his win here.
But in a speech that seemed close to conciliatory, Romney even joked near the end that he wouldn’t have any inheritance left to give all of his extended family members in the crowd, as he's spent such a large amount on his own campaign. He rattled off some of his standard stump lines to a crowd that ranged from courageously supportive to teary and downtrodden.
As for Florida, several representatives from the campaign said that they believe that the endorsements of Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist could have helped to push McCain over the edge here. But they insisted that the race was very close (the spread was five points) and that there were institutional factors -- like name recognition -- that proved helpful to McCain.
Fehrnstrom continued to push that this is now a two-person race -- Romney versus McCain. And he said the campaign will likely seek support in California, Colorado, New York, Illinois, Georgia and Missouri -- states that “are all friendly territory for us.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
DAVIE, FL -- Hillary Clinton landed about half an hour after the polls closed in the delegate-free zone of Florida tonight, and in a six-minute speech declared her win here a "tremendous victory."
With 73% of the precincts reporting, Clinton leads Obama 50%-33%, with Edwards in third with 15%.
Tonight in South Florida, she challenged the rules of the game -- the delegate game, that is. Despite the fact the Democratic National Committee punished Florida (along with Michigan) for moving its primary up by stripping the state of all of its delegates, the Clinton camp has been arguing for days that the people of Florida must be heard. The New York senator made the same argument here.
"Thank you, Florida Democrats. You know, I could not come here to ask in person for your votes," Clinton told a noisy audience that filled a ballroom here and at times shrieked with excitement. "But I am here to thank you for your votes today. This has been a record turnout because Floridians wanted their voices to be heard on the great issues that affect our country and the world. I am thrilled to have had this vote of confidence that you have given me today, and I promise you I will do everything I can to make sure not only are Florida's Democratic delegates seated, but Florida is in the winning column for the Democrats in 2008."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew BergerNBC News/National Journal has confirmed that Rudy Giuliani will endorse John McCain tomorrow in California.
From NBC's Matthew Berger
When asked twice by NBC News/National Journal whether he would participate in the debate tomorrow night, Giuliani said, "We're going to California."
Q: Will you be in the debate tomorrow night?
Giuliani: We're going to California
Q: But will you be in the debate tomorrow night?
Giuliani: We're going to California
From NBC's Chris Donvan
Just quickly looked at Rudy Giuliani's book "Leadership" online, and found a couple of lines from it that might be interesting if he ends up dropping out. For example, did "bad breaks" have a part in his defeats? Will he be like the 1976 Yankees he talked of, and come back in a future presidential campaign?
1. “Just as an election victory needs a dozen little things to go right, a defeat can be blamed on any number of separate bad breaks.” ("Leadership," page 55)
2. “There are important skills to be learned from picking yourself up after something goes wrong, to keep moving ahead without letting it throw you off course. When I lost my first race for mayor, I felt that it was like losing the World Series. I came within three percentage points, and to be that close but still lose was both exhilarating and devastating.” ("Leadership," page 107)
Here are the two quotes in context:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
According to the campaign, this is now a two person race -- it's between a conservative (i.e., Romney) and McCain.
The campaign will emphasize a southern strategy, because voters there will realize Huckabee is not viable, and they will not go for McCain
NBC News declares
John McCain as the projected winner in Florida's GOP primary.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger and MSNBC's Brooke Brower
Time.com is reporting that Giuliani is expected to withdraw from the GOP race and endorse McCain as early as tomorrow.
A senior Giuliani campaign aide said he wouldn't comment on the Time.com report.
Giuliani will come on stage in Orlando, FL at top of the 9:00 pm ET hour.
Florida's Republican primary is too close to call.
In the contest, McCain and Romney are locked in a tight race -- with Giuliani and Huckabee running far behind. Fifty-seven delegates are at stake, and it's winner-take-all.
In the Democratic primary, no delegates are allocated based upon the results in Florida and the candidates pledged not to campaign there. That said, Clinton will finish with more votes than any other candidate today. Obama will finish second and Edwards third.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
LOS ANGELES -- As the political focus turns to Super Tuesday, Clinton’s campaign in delegate-rich California touted what it said was its strong standing one week out. And it's confident that nothing -- not even controversy over Bill Clinton’s role or the momentum from Obama's big win in South Carolina -- can knock them down.
During a conference call with state reporters, the campaign noted the importance of early voting by mail. Fabian Nunez, speaker of the California Assembly, said more votes will be cast by mail in California than were cast in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina combined. “In some cases, enough votes are gonna be banked [before Feb. 5] to win the contest,” Nunez said.
The most recent figures obtained from the California Association of County Election Officials (CACEO) show that 1,132,877 mail-in ballots have been returned, out of the more than 5 million that were requested. But CACEO president Steven Weir estimates that the actual number of returned ballots is already over 2 million. Weir also predicts that 47% of all votes will be cast by mail.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo So far we know three things about the Republican primary in the Sunshine State: it's a very conservative electorate, the economy is the No. 1 issue and voters are pessimistic about it.
In a state that has been battered by the housing crisis and the high costs of oil and gas, these numbers should come as no surprise: Economy 47%, Terrorism 19%, Illegal Immigration 17%, and the War in Iraq 13%.
Florida Republicans give the national economy very low marks. Sixty-three percent said the economy is in the tank. That's comparable to Michigan, which is suffering through the worst unemployment in the nation.
And despite these negative feelings about the economy, a majority of this Republican electorate still has positive feelings about the Bush administration: 20% are enthusiastic and 46% are satisfied. The president gets even higher marks in Florida than he did in South Carolina. And a reminder, this is important because it is a closed primary. Only registered Republicans can participate. We're going to see many more races like this on Super Tuesday.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
HIGHLAND HILLS, OH -- In the wake of criticism that his involvement in the presidential race has hurt his wife's campaign, President Bill Clinton campaigned in Ohio tonight with a message refocused on his wife's decision-making experience. Although the back-and-forth between Hillary Clinton and her main rival did not creep into the former president's remarks, the issue of race came up before Clinton even took the stage. He was introduced by Clinton endorser and popular local black representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones, who told a cheering and racially diverse crowd that Martin Luther King would have been proud of Clinton's candidacy.
"I am supporting Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, and I owe Martin Luther King Jr. too," said Tubbs Jones, a African-American congresswoman popular in her Cleveland-area district here. "Martin Luther King said 'Judge, you, by the content of your character, and not by the color of your skin.' And if he was here, and if he was here, he would say 'I'm happy that there's a woman running for president too.'"
She went on to take a swipe at Obama's focus on hope as the centerpiece of his candidacy. "You need to know hope did not begin in 2008," she said. "Hope began in 2002 when the man from Hope, Arkansas, ran for president and made a difference in the United States of America." (She meant 1992, when Clinton first began his presidential bid. The slip, perhaps, provides some evidence of the fieriness of her comments.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
There may be only seven days between now and Feb. 5th, but don't be surprised if talk show diva, Oprah Winfrey, makes a return to the campaign trail. During a press availability on his campaign plane earlier today, Obama left open the possibility that Oprah could join him on the trail in California.
"There's nothing scheduled right now," Obama said.
But the two have been talking.
"I've been in contact with her consistently and she's open to helping out in any way she can," he added.
In Iowa, New Hampshire and especially in the state of South Carolina, Oprah's appearances with Obama stole the media spotlight for weekend as Obama, his wife, and Winfrey barnstormed the three states.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
TULSA, Okla. -- Following the president's final State of the Union address last night, John Edwards told a crowd in Tulsa this morning that he doesn't know "how he can say these things with a straight face anymore."
"Here's what I heard," he said. "What I heard was, more tax cuts for big business, more illegal spying on the American people, and if we - everything's going great in Iraq. If we just stay on course and keep doing the same thing for however many years, everything's gonna be just fine. Boy, it sounded like Groundhog's Day to me."
Edwards stopped at yet another union hall, this one belonging to the Transport Workers Union. The campaign estimated that 450 people crammed into the space. An introducer recalled meeting the former North Carolina senator when he stopped in Tulsa during the 2004 campaign.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
TAMPA, Fla. -- While visiting a polling station with Gov. Charlie Crist this morning, McCain said he was "feeling good" about his chances in Florida's winner-take-all primary.
"Endorsements matter," said McCain, who this week received the endorsement of two Florida bigwigs, Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez. "It would have been very easy for Gov. Crist to just say look, I'm not going to get into a contested primary. I'm very grateful and very appreciative [that he did]."
But despite his rosy outlook, McCain still found time to toss one more barb at Mitt Romney before polls close tonight at 7pm. Asked why the GOP campaign in FL has been so negative, McCain said his party's race "looks like a Sunday school picnic compared to what the Democrats have been doing." And when asked about the specific tiff between Romney and himself, he seemed more than willing to sit down for another picnic snack.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
DELRAY BEACH, Fla. -- Giuliani was mobbed by a couple dozen senior citizens as he disembarked from his campaign bus to go inside Lox Around the Clock bagel shop Tuesday. The New York accents were thick and it was a bit of a homecoming for Giuliani, who originally had rested his Floridian hopes on transplanted Northeasterners, and who he courted heavily on primary day.
The Giuliani sighting was the second of two exciting moments for the crowd. Jon Voight -- who has been traveling with Giuliani for several days and tossed a football with staffers at the previous event -- received a similar rock-star treatment, with the gawkers asking for autographs and photos. Many quickly turned on a dime, however, away from Voight when Giuliani bounced off the bus several minutes later.
After talking to diners at a booth -- and reporters waiting on line for brisket sandwiches at the counter -- Giuliani told the press that Florida voters should ignore the recent polling, which has shown a possible third or fourth place finish in the state.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
TAMPA, Fla. -- It may have had a weak turnout, but Romney’s last rally with supporters in the Sunshine State before seeing tonight’s primary results was well-placed and well-timed at the Tampa Convention Center for one of the major notes he wants to get across.
“Right down the hall today, in this very building, there are 700 people assembled,” Romney threw into his speech. “These are people who stood in line -- most of them for years and years -- and worked hard to come to this country legally. Those people are Sworn in as citizens of the United States of America, and we salute them. And we say to the millions of people who have come to this country illegally, ‘Stand back and get in line!” Romney said to wild applause.
In addition to the key on-message lines the moment provided during his remarks, it also gave him some helpful photo-ops after the event with some of the new citizens milling around the convention center.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan and Domenico Montanaro
On Obama’s campaign plane, he answered questions about the “snub” moment from the State of the Union and Florida’s relevance, or lack there of, in this nominating process.
He said he was “surprised” about the photo and how his apparent turning away from Clinton was being characterized.
“I was turning away because Claire [McCaskill] asked me a question, as Senator Kennedy was reaching for her [Clinton],” Obama said. “And senator Clinton and I have had very cordial relations on the floor and off the floor; I waved at her as we were coming into the Senate chamber before we walked over. I think there's a lot more tea leaf reading going on here than I think people are suggesting.”
McCaskill was on the plane with Obama to back up his alibi, and she scolded the press for reading something into nothing.
"It was not a snub," she emphatically declared. "It was one of those accidents. Frankly everyone's spoiling for a fight, which is the politics of old, you know this thing isn't the politics of old. Its about new. It's unfortunate that everyone is so anxious for there to be problem on a personal level and I gotta tell yah, its just not there."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Even though the contest won't be awarding any delegates and despite the fact that none of the candidates actually campaigned there, the Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters earlier today, arguing that tonight's Florida Democratic Party matters.
"Floridians want their voices heard, and their voices will be heard tonight," said Clinton campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle."
Communications director Howard Wolfson added, "We think that one million coming out to vote matters."
Yet much of the rest of the conference call consisted of reporters questioning the timing and motives of the Clinton campaign's argument that today's contest counts. Some examples:
-- Why does it count if no one had campaigned there? (The campaign's answer: Floridians have been paying attention through the national media, and Obama had actually aired a TV ad in the state, although it was part of a national cable buy.)
-- Does Clinton think a state like Florida that broke the rules by moving its primary shouldn't be punished? (The reply: The punishment is unfortunate, but the expectation is that Florida's delegates will eventually be seated.)
-- Why is the Clinton campaign raising its voice only now? (Because they never expected how many would be voting absentee. "Something unexpected happened here," said chief strategist Mark Penn.)
-- Why didn't they speak up about the primary in Michigan, where the Dem delegates had also been stripped? (Because Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot there.)
Just minutes later, the Obama campaign held a conference call with reporters, with Sen. John Kerry doing the talking. "My understanding is the Clinton campaign had a call suggesting that Florida ought to be covered by all you folks in a serious fashion." Explaining that he himself knows the nominating process pretty well -- having run and won his party's presidential nomination four years ago -- Kerry said, "The bottom line is Florida not offer any delegates. It should not become a spin race. It should not become a fabricated race."
And Kerry said to attach meaning to Florida -- "suggesting something that isn't" -- is yet another example of the kind of politics that Obama wants to end.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
POMPANO BEACH, Fla. -- Giuliani tried phone banking Tuesday, and got at least one supporter on the line.
“Lisa? This is Rudy Giuliani,” he said into a cell phone at his campaign’s Broward County headquarters. “It is. I’m calling from headquarters. Javier asked me to call.”
Giuliani had a phone banking script in his hands, but didn’t read from it. “I would like to see if you would go out and vote for me. You will?” he asked, and he held up the phone so the caller could hear the applause. “I didn’t even use the script and it worked. Thank you very much.”
He earlier thanked the men and women who were using their cell phones to contact voters in both English and Spanish, and signed a wall of support for the former New York City mayor.
From NBC's Christina JamisonThe endorsement
Hillary Clinton is picking up today is from California Rep.
Maxine Waters (D).
From NBC's Lisa Myers and Jim Popkin
NBC News' Investigative Unit took a look at that land deal between Obama and Rezko and why that piece of property now won't sell.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
NBC News has confirmed that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, who gave the Democratic response at last night's State of the Union, will endorse Obama today in Kansas.
From NBC's Kerry Sanders
In Broward County Fla., minor delays were reported this morning at a half dozen polling locations. Voters who provide a driver's license for identification have their license run through a machine that reads the magnetic stripe on the back. (The machine is called an EVID).
At least six of those EVID machines at different polling locations did not work this morning. Broward County election officials say they have now corrected the problem, and everyone who wanted to vote has voted, albeit they had to wait a little longer than expected.
Broward County is now infamous for the recounts and hanging chads of the 2000 presidential race.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
SUNNY ISLES BEACH, Fla. -- Giuliani worked to get out the vote in the Miami suburbs Tuesday, and continued to dodge questions about future plans if he does not win the Florida primary.
“We’re gonna win today,” Giuliani said while sitting at the counter of the Wolfie Cohen's Rascal House diner, munching on cereal and coffee with Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum. “That’s our answer. We’re gonna win today.”
Giuliani started the day with a series of television interviews, and reiterated that he intends to travel to California either tonight or tomorrow and participate in the CNN debate on Wednesday.
But while campaign aides continue to defend their strategy to largely bypass the early primary states, Giuliani seemed to acknowledge the pitfalls of the strategy. He told interviewers that other candidates were able to garner momentum from early wins and that watching other candidates win “hurt” his fund-raising efforts.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Florida showdown: The Romney-McCain race in Florida has become almost as entertaining as a Miami-FSU football game (circa '97-'02, of course) -- and about as heated, too. Yesterday, McCain was calling Romney a flip-flopper (ouch), while Romney was returning the fire with McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, and McCain-Lieberman (yikes). And the reason why, as we've mentioned before, is just how much is at stake. A McCain win makes him the undisputed front-runner, with a clear path to the GOP nomination. A Romney win, meanwhile, gives him tons of momentum heading into February 5, although McCain should still do well in several of the delegate-rich states like New York and California. But the bigger effect of a Mitt victory on McCain would be a financial one -- it would make it more difficult for him to raise the cash he needs to stay competitive beyond February 5. Indeed, Romney-McCain has the feel of being one of the closest primaries of this early season … and we all know what happens when Florida has tight contests, right? It’s a winner-take-all, and 57 delegates are at stake. Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET in most parts of the state; in the panhandle that’s in Central Time, it’s 8:00 am ET and 8:00 pm ET. So there will be no call or even a characterization of the race until 8:00 pm ET.
*** Pluses and minuses: Romney and McCain both have reasons to believe they can win or excuses if they lose. Romney's got the fact this primary is open only to registered Republicans, a group McCain has struggled with in previous primaries. Meanwhile, McCain has veterans and voters over 65 to lean on. But Huckabee may be taking Romney vote, and Rudy may be taking McCain vote. The question is: Which of those two hurt the front-runners more? By the way, don't let folks pass around the myth that the exit polls do not account for the early vote -- that's not true. The consortium thoroughly polls early voters and includes those results in the first wave and adjusts the weighting of that early vote survey as same-day turnout is taken into account.
*** Rudy’s last stand: The GOP candidate who’s trailing a distant third in the polls behind McCain and Romney is the person who staked everything on Florida: Rudy Giuliani. He sure seems to be acting like a guy trying to go out with grace. The autographed baseballs for the traveling press were a nice touch but also a HUGE hint. And as NBC’s John Yang, who is following Giuliani, put it yesterday: There is a real feeling of valedictory on this trip, like a final senior class trip or the bus ride home from summer camp. Reporters posing for pictures with aides, the baseballs on each seat, and so on. The question, short term, is what does Rudy do tomorrow? Dropping out seems likely but does he endorse? Politico's Jonathan Martin has a theory that Giuliani will quickly endorse McCain (i.e., pre-February 5) so that Rudy can bask in the glow a bit in McCain's likely Tsunami Tuesday victories in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Not a bad theory, no?
*** The Florida sideshow: While everything is on the line in Florida's GOP primary, that's certainly not the case on the Dem side, given that the DNC stripped Florida of all of its delegates for moving up its primary before February. In turn, it has become nothing more than a beauty contest. But that hasn't stopped the Clinton campaign -- and some pundits as well -- from trying to make it count, even though the Democratic candidates all pledged not to campaign in the state. In fact, Clinton holds a victory rally of sorts tonight in Davie, FL. But the Obama folks seem to have a point: If the nomination is about winning the most delegates, as the Clinton campaign says, then Florida shouldn't count, right? To put it another way, as we've said before, if you’re heading to the playoffs, you can't suddenly say that some exhibition game now matters. The other issue for Clinton is that she's running against herself, and anything short of a big win could backfire. All this said, what will the average viewer tonight take away? A Clinton win in the most famous swing state in the country? Will the average viewer even care that the DNC penalized the state on the delegate front and that no one campaigned there? This is what the Clinton campaign is counting on.
*** SOTU thoughts: Watching last night’s State of the Union, anyone else get the sense that President Bush was just glad to be done? He had the smirk going for about half the speech, and then came the Iraq portion when the smirk did go away and he made what seemed like a very familiar argument about Iraq and foreign policy. The problem for Bush, of course, is just that: The argument is familiar, and it's unclear whether he has anyone listening to him anymore. As for how the presidentials handled the SOTU, a few things: 1) Mitt Romney seemed hesitant to pin the "broken Washington" tag on Bush when given the chance; 2) Obama's apparent snub of Clinton in the Senate chamber wasn't missed by many (just how bitter is this race?); 3) speaking of Obama, we're guessing the video response he provided a good platform for his supporters to watch and then, well, contribute (by the way, will video SOTU responses be the norm in a few years?); 4) did anyone notice how short McCain's press release response was? Did he really only send out a release praising Bush's earmark comments and that's it? 5) Why did Clinton cancel the rest of her TV interviews last night after her chat with NBC's Brian Williams? Unclear, but she’ll be doing the full cable radio today. Finally, isn't it amazing that Obama-Kennedy stepped on the State of the Union? That's something… says a lot about the presidential race and the sitting president.
*** Buckeye Bill: How much should we read into the decision to send Bill Clinton to Ohio today? Ohio is not a February 5 primary state, but a March 4 one. If February 5 doesn't decide anything (and neither campaign seems to think it will), then the next BIG day is March 4 -- especially for the Clinton campaign, since the primaries and caucuses taking place between Tsunami Tuesday and March 4 are all in states that may favor Obama. Anyway, it's striking to see Bill's schedule already include Ohio, though we're guessing it's a two-fer stop (fundraising in private and a public even tacked on to start prepping post-Feb. 5). And by the way, the Clinton camp is prepping a major endorsement, likely Feb. 5-related; there aren't many big February 5 gets left, so think major members of Congress and governors.
*** On the trail: On the GOP side, Giuliani gives it a final push in Miami, Pompano Beach, Delray Beach, and Orlando; Huckabee holds two events in Tampa and then it’s off to three stops in the February 5 state of Missouri; McCain makes four stops in Florida, including Miami, St. Petersburg, and a fundraiser; and Romney makes two stops -- in Tampa and St. Petersburg. On the Dem side, as mentioned earlier, Clinton holds a rally in Davie, FL; Edwards is in Oklahoma, Missouri, and Minnesota; Obama campaigns in Kansas and Missouri; and Bill Clinton, in addition to his event in Ohio, stumps for his wife in New Jersey.
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 7 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 14 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 35 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 280 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 357 days
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The New York Times on the final day of campaigning yesterday: "Romney … began attacking at dawn, accusing Mr. McCain of allying himself with liberal Democrats in the Senate and betraying conservative principles on legislation involving immigration, the environment and campaign finance. ‘If you want that kind of a liberal Democratic course as president, then you can vote for him,’ Mr. Romney said at a Texaco gas station in West Palm Beach at 6:30 a.m. ‘But those three pieces of legislation, those aren’t conservative. Those aren’t Republican.’”
“Mr. McCain volleyed back by describing Mr. Romney as a serial flip-flopper who had taken multiple positions on a variety of issues, including gay rights, global warming and immigration. ‘People, just look at his record as governor,’ Mr. McCain said at a shipyard in Jacksonville. ‘He has been entirely consistent. He has consistently taken two sides of every major issue, sometimes more than two.’”
The Washington Post adds, "The angry tone between the two extended to the airwaves, as McCain launched a new negative radio ad. ‘If they're going to attack us, we'll push back, so if we have a little sport roughing them up, too bad,’ McCain adviser Mark Salter said.” McCain's new radio ad mocks Romney's economic record as governor and questions his electability, with an announcer saying, ‘The bottom line: Mitt Romney loses to Hillary Clinton. Republicans lose. We can't afford Mitt Romney.’”
CONTINUED >>
CALIFORNIA: A new L.A. Times/CNN/Politico poll has McCain and Clinton with comfortable leads. Clinton maintained a 49% to 32% lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats, despite losing some support in key voter groups. McCain carried 39% of likely Republican primary participants, to 26% for Mitt Romney, who also bolstered his standing among California voters.
The most important stat in the poll: "About half of voters are expected to use mail-in ballots -- which have been available since Jan. 7 -- and Clinton was romping over Obama among that group, 53% to 30%. Among those expecting to cast ballots in a traditional precinct visit, the race was a closer 42% to 34% in Clinton's favor. Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney was also running stronger among mail-in voters, if still behind McCain."
CLINTON: Clinton was in Massachusetts and Connecticut yesterday. “Clinton used her platforms -- gymnasiums in Springfield and Hartford packed with energized voters -- to criticize President Bush in advance of last night's State of the Union address. She barely alluded to her heated struggle with Barack Obama, who trounced her on Saturday in South Carolina's primary, and in Springfield she ignored the endorsement Senator Edward M. Kennedy was bestowing upon the Illinois senator about the same hour in Washington.”
The day after Ted Kennedy backed Obama, three of RFK's children: Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, RFK Jr. and Kerry Kennedy pen a supportive op-ed for Clinton in today's Los Angeles Times.
The New York Times’ David Brooks writes, "Last week there was the widespread revulsion at the Clintons’ toxic attempts to ghettoize Barack Obama. In private and occasionally in public, leading Democrats lost patience with the hyperpartisan style of politics -- the distortion of facts, the demonizing of foes, the secret admiration for brass-knuckle brawling and the ever-present assumption that it’s necessary to pollute the public sphere to win. All the suppressed suspicions of Clintonian narcissism came back to the fore. Are these people really serving the larger cause of the Democratic Party, or are they using the party as a vehicle for themselves?"
“The Rev. Al Sharpton Monday joined the chorus of Democrats telling Bill Clinton to zip it. ‘As one of the most outspoken people in America, I think there's a time to shut up. That time has come,’ Sharpton said,” per the New York Daily News. “Whether he thinks it's the press distorting him or not, his making these statements is polarizing the country."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The New York Times’ coverage today isn't quite a campaign obit, but...
"Giuliani campaign chartered a 727 on Monday for a day of barnstorming on the eve of Tuesday’s big primary, but none of the rallies at airports in Sanford, Clearwater, Fort Myers or Fort Lauderdale drew even a hundred supporters. Mr. Giuliani’s edge on the airwaves has dissipated, too, as his rivals are now outspending him on television. And Mr. Giuliani has found himself an afterthought in some local coverage of the primary, which has centered on Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney, who lead in polls."
The New York Sun's Gerstein writes, "If Mayor Giuliani's presidential campaign fizzles in Florida today, as polls suggest it will, he will face a sequence of events that will encourage him to get out of the race within hours in order to preserve his political ties and business relationships, supporters and political analysts said. The fast-moving campaign calendar may deny Mr. Giuliani the luxury of a few days to mull over his situation. The Republican candidates are scheduled to debate at the Reagan Library in California tomorrow night and the crucial 21-state Super Tuesday battle is seven short days away. The former mayor may want to avoid the resentment he might generate by taking up time at the debate only to pull out a day or two later.”
CONTINUED >>
So did Obama snub Clinton? The Chicago Tribune seems to think so. "Sen. Barack Obama refused to make himself available to greet Sen. Hillary Clinton before the speech. When members of the Senate entered the chamber, Obama came in before Clinton. He went out of his way to greet as many House members as possible and walked halfway across the chamber to greet members of the Supreme Court, the president's cabinet, the military joint chiefs. That made what happened next even more striking. Obama returned to stand by his seat next to Sen. Edward Kennedy who endorsed Obama today in a widely watched event that reverberated across the political world.”
More: “As Clinton approached, Kennedy made sure to make eye contact and indicated he wanted to shake her hand. Clinton leaned towards Kennedy over a row of seats and Kennedy leaned in towards her. They shook hands. Obama stood icily staring at Clinton during this, then turned his back and stepped a few feet away. Kennedy may've wanted to make peace with Clinton but Obama clearly wanted no part of that.”
For her part, Clinton sidestepped a question from NBC’s Brian Williams about whether Kennedy’s endorsement had to do with his disapproval of the Clinton campaign’s tone and conduct. Williams asked, “Does anything about this incident prompt you to change the message of your campaign or how it’s conveyed?” Her response, per NBC’s Sarah Demarest: “Well, I think the message of my campaign is very clear. It is about the high stakes in this election. It is about why is ready to be president on Day One to tackle the tough problems that will await our next president, especially after the eight years of President Bush’s time in office. And it is about who is best prepared to really bring the country together around solutions around solving problems. You know, that’s what I’ve done for 35 years. That’s what I’m offering in this campaign.”
Interestingly, Clinton apparently cancelled her later interviews on CNN, FOX News, and MSNBC.
As for Bush’s final State of the Union address, the Washington Post says, “Gone were the grand dreams of remaking Social Security, immigration law or the tax code. In their place were modest initiatives, such as hiring preferences for military spouses. The economic package targeted tax breaks to low- and middle-class workers. And the foreign policy stressed Middle East peacemaking and diplomacy with rogue nations.”
“President Bush took office with so much derision for the outgoing president that critics defined his attitude toward governing as ABC -- "anything but Clinton." He would not play ‘small ball,’ he declared, nor would he coddle North Korea or waste time mediating between the Israelis and Arabs. But as he delivered his final State of the Union address last night, Bush increasingly appeared to be adopting some of his predecessor's approach.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- As the Florida GOP race crescendos into tomorrow's primary, Mike Huckabee is in Music City hoping to drum up support for a strong showing on Super Tuesday. Former Fred Thompson territory, Tennessee could be fertile ground for the governor, who picked up the endorsement of the state's Right to Life group and met with legislators in Nashville today.
Florida, says the Southern son, ain't no thang.
"I don't think that tomorrow is the turning point in the road," Huckabee told reporters today. The Huckabee campaign has tried to downplay the Florida results, saying that focus on the Sunshine State is largely a creation of the media.
In Music City, where he will twang his own bass guitar later this afternoon, Huckabee has stayed away from the noisy feud playing out between John McCain and Mitt Romney in Florida. Asked if the back-and-forth between the two frontrunners helps or hurts him, Huckabee gave a typically mischevious response. " If it hurts them, tell them to mix up some more mud and get it going," he said. " If it hurts me, tell them to stop that nonsense and start behaving like adults today."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
WASHINGTON, DC -- At American University, Senator Ted Kennedy, the lion of the Democratic Party took the stage, standing above a sea of 4,000 young faces and told the crowd, "I feel change in the air."
The crowd responded chanting, "Kennedy! Kennedy! Kennedy!" and "Yes we can! Yes we can! Yes we can!"
"I remember another such time, in the 1960s, when I came to the Senate at the age of 30. We had a new president who inspired the nation, especially the young, to seek a new frontier. Those inspired young people marched, sat in at lunch counters, protested the war in Vietnam and served honorably in that war even when they opposed it," Kennedy said.
That potential to lead a movement for greater change was what Obama promised he would deliver if he was elected president, when he took the stage after the Kennedy. "That is the dream we hold in our hearts. That is the kind of leadership we need in this country. And this the kind of leadership I intend to offer as president," Obama said.
But as he took the stage, Obama's first words were a reminder of the potential power of Kennedy's endorsement. "I stand here today with a great deal of humility. I know what your support means. I know the cherished place the Kennedy family holds in the hearts of the American people. And that is as it should be. Because the Kennedy family, more than any other, has always stood for what's best about the Democratic Party, and about America," he said.
Obama personalized his connection to the Kennedy legacy through the stories he said his grandparents and his mother told of that hopeful era in American politics. And in a poignant moment, he referred to his father, whom he rarely mentions on the campaign trail. He told the story of how his father was only able to study in the United States because of the Kennedy family's foundation that provided scholarships for foreign students to come to the United States.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
SPRINGFIELD, MA -- In a stump speech today from this February 5 state, Clinton talked about the different perspective she would bring to the White House -- as a daughter, wife, and mother.
It seemed intended to connect with women voters. "I will bring to the White House my perspective as a daughter, as a wife, as a mother, because that's never been in the White House before," she said to applause and cheers from the crowd. "I know what it's like to have to be at work and your baby wakes up sick. I know what it's like when the babysitter calls in sick. I know what it's like when the appointment you thought would be done by time for you to pick your child up from school keeps going and going and you can't get out of it. I mean, I have lived this and I know how hard parents today are working."
She also made a point of mentioning having received the endorsement of US Rep. Jim McGovern (D), an Iraq war critic who represents Central and Southeastern Massachusetts. "I was very honored to receive the support and endorsement of Cong. Jim McGovern, who has been one of the most consistent critics and opponents of the war in Iraq and he endorsed me. And some people said, 'Well, why would you endorse Sen. Clinton?' And I was so humbled by his response, which was that because he trusts me and believes in me to end it the right way."
In his endorsement of rival Obama today, Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy spoke about the Illinois senator's having been against the Iraq war from the beginning.
Clinton ended by asking the crowd to come out and vote for her on February 5 or to vote absentee if they won't be around that day.
She did not take questions, instead greeting voters in the rope line before heading to Washington for Senate business, including a vote on the FISA bill.
From NBC's Victoria Riess
In a confrence call today, the Edwards campaign announced an "aggressive media buy" in ten states over the next 48 hours, which it plans to expand as February 5th approaches. According to the campaign, the ad buys will give the public more exposure to Edwards' message and help him win support because, "as we saw in South Carolina, once people have a chance to hear directly from John Edwards, the numbers move."
The campaign added that fundraising is booming, totalling almost $4 million dollars even before Federal Matching Funds took effect. The campaign noted that the most significant trend in an increase in fundraising came from long-time online supporters who made first-time contributions.
The campaign is confident going into the race for delegates on Feb 5th, citing several states in which Edwards has strong support and backing (AL, CA, ID, GA, MA, MN, MO, NM, ND, OK, TN).
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
SANFORD, FL -- The hits just keep on coming.
In a continuation of their back-and-forths, Romney blasted McCain on the economy -- and wanted the Arizona senator to know that he has no interest in becoming McCain's running mate.
“There’s another guy running on our side, Sen. McCain -- he’s a good man, he’s a hero -- but his views on the economy, well, I think are sort of summed up by his own statement that it’s not really something he understands that well. He’s said that a couple of times,” Romney said. He added that McCain “indicated that when he chose his vice president, it would have to be somebody who really understood the economy. Well, I do understand the economy, and I’m not going to be being any vice president to John McCain, either. That’s not going to happen.”
Romney’s been blasting McCain's economic knowledge on the stump and with reporters in the Sunshine State in recent days. But he’s so far steered clear of attacking him in paid advertising (with Web ads as the exception). That’s a change in course from how the campaign was operating in several of the other early states –- Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan.
Even before 7:00 am ET, Romney came out swinging against McCain today: At a gas station session with reporters that the campaign added late Sunday to today's schedule, Romney addressed what he considers to be shortcomings in McCain's record. Those boiled down to three bills Romney considers flawed. They are McCain-Feingold, which he said has made the impact of money on politics worse; McCain-Kennedy, which he tagged as an "amnesty bill"; and McCain-Lieberman.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
CLEARWATER, FL -- Atop each seat in the press section of the Giuliani charter this afternoon sat a baseball -- with Rudy Giuliani’s name scribbled between the stitching.
It seemed like a going-away present from a campaign that has appeared more resigned to its fate in recent days. Campaign staffers and the press have been dancing around the future throughout the day, with one reporter even joking with a press aide about finding new jobs.
The crowd at the St. Petersburg-Clearwater International Airport was thin, barely reaching triple digits. At times, Giuliani’s surrogates -- Jon Voight and Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- have seemed to have more enthusiasm than the candidate himself.
But Giuliani, with Judith by his side and holding his hand throughout a press availability, has been hitting home his message, placing himself as the most experienced on both economic policy and national security, and believing early voting will give them a more reliable turnout than his opponents.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Arriving at the Obama rally at 11:00 am ET here in Washington DC, where Ted and Caroline Kennedy are slated to endorse Obama, the crowd waiting outside is fairly subdued -- a lone "Yes we can" chant starts and stops as suddenly as it began -- a much different crowd than, per NBC's Gabe Herman, the enthusiastic supporters who were lined up earlier this morning to get tickets for the rally. Much like people wait in lines for a rock concert or a Maryland-Duke basketball game for tickets, four people arrived at 5:00 am ET and about 100 other people joined them, until 8:30 when the line exploded down the block.
Inside the American University gym, an overflowing crowd of mostly students energetically awaited Obama's arrival. Cheering and chanting, they did not mind waiting almost an hour for the senator to arrive.
Much like the public, members of the press had to wait more than 45 minutes to enter the auditorium. And about 75 to 100 members of the press, including some who have been traveling with the candidate for the past several months, were not allowed into the event because of space constraints.
More to come...
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
CHATTANOOGA, TN -- Edwards used the occasion of President Bush's State of the Union speech tonight to bash 1) his economic stimulus plan and 2) Washington.
"Well, there a couple of things wrong with his stimulus plan," he told an enthusiastic crowd. "Number one, it leaves tens of millions of Americans who most need the help out of this stimulus plan. Second, it does -- it'll take months for it to actually kick in, and as all of you know without me telling you, people are hurting right now. They need help right now."
Edwards then said that the stimulus plan illustrates how Washington is out of touch with ordinary Americans.
The former North Carolina senator began speaking 40 minutes after the rally was scheduled to start. It was held in an IBEW hall, and he noted that his brother is a card-carrying member of the IBEW local in Raleigh, NC. In his speech Edwards also covered education, global warming, trade policy, and withdrawing troops from Iraq.
Edwards, who used to take questions from audience members at almost every event, has not taken questions from audience members since before his first town hall back in South Carolina on January 19. In Chattanooga, he didn't take questions from reporters, either.
From Chattanooga, Edwards flies to Nashville and then Springfield, MO.
*** UPDATE *** Republican National Committee spokesman Alex Conant replies with this statement to Edwards' remarks: “John Edwards’ attacks are nothing more than desperation from a candidate frantically seeking attention. The tax refunds Edwards is so quick to discount may not cover more than a few of his haircuts, but they would be valuable relief for millions of Americans.”
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
JACKSONVILLE, FL -- McCain held a roundtable on national security this morning with several of his biggest supporters and surrogates. Held at Atlantic Marine, which builds both commercial and naval vessels, the event included two senators, a former CIA director, a FBI-agent-turned-southern-governor, a past head of the VA Administration and a former POW who was held in Hanoi with McCain.
For almost an hour, the panel took turns describing the threats of terrorism in general and 'radical Islamic extremism' in particular, with an emphasis on why McCain's experience makes him the best candidate to handle the challenges that lie ahead. Although not exactly an unbiased panel, the clear point was to take another step towards shifting the debate in Florida -- home to roughly 2 million veterans -- back towards defense and military preparedness
But McCain couldn't get away from what has become a heated back-and-forth with Mitt Romney over the economy and the candidates' respective conservative records. Speaking to reporters after the roundtable, McCain responded to Romney's attacks from earlier this morning that likened the senator to a liberal Democrat.
"One thing I think we should really give Governor Romney credit for -- he is consistent," McCain said. "He has consistently taken both sides of any major issue. He has consistently flip-flopped on every issue…
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Sen. Ted Kennedy said he will "offer my help, my voice, my energy and my commitment to make Barack Obama the next president of the United States," according to remarks prepared for delivery today. And in not-so-subtle pushes against the claims of Obama's biggest rival, he'll says, "I know that he's ready to be president on Day One."
Kennedy acknowledges the "work and dedication" of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, calling them his friends. "But I believe there is one candidate who has extraordinary gifts of leadership and character, matched to the extraordinary demands of this moment in history. He understands what Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. called the 'fierce urgency of now.'"
The Massachusetts Senator then directly responds to rivals' criticisms, calling on the crowd to "reject the counsels of doubt and calculation." While Kennedy doesn't specifically name Senator Clinton, his target seem obvious. "We know the true record of Barack Obama," Kennedy will say of Obama's war stance. There is the courage he showed when so many others were silent or simply went along. From the beginning, he opposed the war in Iraq. And let no one deny that truth." Kennedy voted against the initial war authorization.)
On who's really the "change" candidate, Kennedy will say: "Barack Obama is the one person running for President who can bring us that change. Barack Obama is the one person running for president who can be that change."
And toward the end of the speech, Kennedy connects Obama to his brother, JFK. "There was another time, when another young candidate was running for president and challenging America to cross a New Frontier." Kennedy says JFK also faced criticism from Democrats about his lack of experience.
"Harry Truman said we needed 'someone with greater experience' -- and added: 'May I urge you to be patient,'" Kennedy will say. "And John Kennedy replied: 'The world is changing. The old ways will not do... It is time for a new generation of leadership.' So it is with Barack Obama."
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
First Read has just learned that Jano Cabrera -- who worked as a spokesman for Gore in '00, Lieberman's '04 bid, and the DNC in '04 general election -- has joined Team Clinton as a senior communications adviser.
Always armed with a good sense of humor, Jano sends up this YouTube clip about his return into presidential politics.
From NBC's Mark Murray
USA Today/Gallup is out with polls looking at the February 5 battlegrounds of California and New York. Per the surveys, Clinton leads Obama in California, 47%-35%, and also in New York, 56%-28%.
On the GOP side in California, it's McCain 35%, Romney 27%, Huckabee 12%, and Giuliani 11%. And in New York, it's McCain 42%, Giuliani 24%, and Romney 14%.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Author Toni Morrison, who famously labeled Bill Clinton "the first black president," has endorsed Obama. In a letter to the senator, she writes, "In thinking carefully about the strengths of the candidates, I stunned myself when I came to the following conclusion: that in addition to keen intelligence, integrity and a rare authenticity, you exhibit something that has nothing to do with age, experience, race or gender and something I don't see in other candidates. That something is a creative imagination which coupled with brilliance equals wisdom."
Here's her full endorsement letter:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark MurrayA little drop of rain on the
Obama-
Kennedy parade today, the
Chicago Tribune is reporting:
Tony Rezko was arrested due to an alleged bond violation.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Ted Kennedy Is All In: The New York Times front-pages the news of Ted Kennedy endorsing Obama, which occurs today at 12:15 pm ET at American University in DC. "Both the Clintons and their allies had pressed Mr. Kennedy for weeks to remain neutral in the Democratic race, but Mr. Kennedy had become increasingly disenchanted with the tone of the Clinton campaign… He and former President Bill Clinton had a heated telephone exchange earlier this month over what Mr. Kennedy considered misleading statements by Mr. Clinton about Mr. Obama, as well as his injection of race into the campaign. Mr. Kennedy called Mr. Clinton Sunday to tell him of his decision.” Did we read that correctly? Ted Kennedy called Bill Clinton -- and not Hillary -- to tell him of the decision? Anyway, the Clinton camp trotted out a statement from Kathleen Kennedy Townsend as a counterpunch to the endorsements from Teddy and Caroline Kennedy (and, per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, Patrick Kennedy will also be endorsing Obama). Umm, not quite the same impact...
*** Where Kennedy Helps Obama: The thing about a Kennedy endorsement is that once he's in, HE'S ALL IN. Ask Al Gore or John Kerry. Kennedy loves campaigning and when he hits the stump, he gets fired up. And as the Times reports, Kennedy is going to head West and then back to the Northeast to campaign for Obama. He could be particularly helpful for Obama in wooing rank-and-file, blue-collar Democrats as well as Latinos, two parts of the Democratic coalition Obama's under-performed with. Of course, Obama -- as this YouTube clip shows -- hasn’t always had kind words for Kennedy…
*** Bush’s swan song: President Bush steals the spotlight from the most competitive and fascinating presidential nominating contests in years when he delivers his final State of the Union address tonight. And when he gives that speech, he will do so as his ratings remain near -- or at -- all-time lows, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Just 31% approve of his job as president, 29% approve of his handling of the economy, 28% approve of his handling of Iraq, and 32% view him positively versus 57% who see him in a negative light. What’s more, 62% prefer Congress (whose approval rating stands at 18%) taking the lead role in setting policy for the country, compared with 21% who want Bush to do so. Finally, a whopping 70% of respondents believe that Bush’s presidency will turn out either worse than most or not as good as most as the past several presidencies. By comparison, 45% said this of Bill Clinton (who has, of course, been in the news lately) in January of 1999.
*** Behind that FL turnout: A lot has been made of the higher-than-expected turnout among Florida Democrats. Let's not forget that one of the reasons turnout is a bit higher in the Florida primary could have as much to do with the contentious property tax ballot init that's on the state ballot tomorrow as it is with the presidential race. Millions of dollars has been spent on this fight over property taxes in the state. According to the Miami Herald, there's been an "avalanche of mailers and television ads from opponents and supporters of the property tax amendment." When you have millions being spent on something like this, you have lots of money being spent on absentee and early voting. So when watching the Florida returns, particularly on the Democratic side, realize there actually is a local pocketbook issue (property taxes) and a multi-million dollar campaign driving turnout. It wouldn't be surprising, in fact, to find out later that the ad campaigns for this property tax fight actually was more expensive than the presidential race.
*** The Lieberman effect: One of the odder endorsers of this cycle has been Joe Lieberman's support of John McCain. What's been odder is that Lieberman has been such a high-profile surrogate. He was in Florida again for McCain, trying to deliver state to the potential GOP frontrunner, something he couldn't do for Al Gore. Romney is trying to use Lieberman's support to highlight some of McCain's less than conservative domestic positions. And Lieberman, while a national security hawk (or conservative, depending on your point of view), has a fairly left-of-center-to-liberal voting record on a number of domestic issues. Questions we're surprised haven't been asked of McCain regarding Lieberman. Why can't you get him to switch parties and switch control of the Senate to the GOP? Of course, the Democrats have treated Lieberman with kid gloves on this issue. But for one press release from DLC's Al From, criticizing Lieberman for endorsing a Republican for president, we've heard nary a peep from Democrats about Lieberman. Why? For that question we posed regarding Senate control. Democrats don't want to chase Lieberman out of the party and therefore cost them control of the Senate.
*** On the trail: On the Democratic side, Clinton stumps in Connecticut and Massachusetts before returning to DC for tonight’s State of the Union; Edwards is in Tennessee and Missouri; and Obama picks up Ted Kennedy’s endorsement at American University in DC. On the GOP side, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all campaign in Florida on the eve of that state’s Republican primary.
Countdown to Florida: 1 day
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 8 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 15 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 36 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 281 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 358 days
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The Washington Post curtain-raises tonight’s State of the Union. “For years, President Bush and his advisers expressed frustration that the White House received little credit for the nation's strong economic performance because of public discontent about the Iraq war. Today, the president is getting little credit for improved security in Iraq, as the public increasingly focuses on a struggling U.S. economy. That is the problem Bush faces as he prepares to deliver his seventh and probably final State of the Union address tonight. For the first time in four years, he will come before Congress able to report some progress in tamping down violence in Iraq. Yet the public appears to have moved on from the war -- and possibly from Bush himself.”
More: “Tonight's State of the Union address will look ahead to ‘unfinished business’ that White House aides say can be completed with some goodwill from the Democratic-controlled Congress. Some of that business seems likely to remain unfinished. Bush has long wanted to make permanent the tax cuts approved early in his term, but Democrats appear to have little interest… The president may be better positioned to win reauthorization of existing initiatives he will discuss tonight, such as his program to permit wireless surveillance of suspected terrorists and his ambitious accountability system for the nation's public schools. Aides are also promising modest changes in areas such as housing, health care and Bush's ‘faith-based’ program to assist religious social service organizations, but they concede that the domestic reforms he once sought for immigration and Social Security are out of reach.”
The Wall Street Journal focuses on the free-trade deals Bush will push for tonight. “President Bush will ask skeptical legislators not to spurn free trade, urging passage of a pact with Colombia in a State of the Union address expected to stress keeping the U.S. engaged in the highly competitive global economy… For Mr. Bush, the State of the Union represents a chance to confront the increasing fear among lawmakers and voters that free trade is turning out to be a bad bargain for American workers and companies. Mr. Bush will talk about the ‘importance of trade to the U.S. economy and the importance of opposing the forces of protectionism and isolationism,’ a senior administration official said.”
A new Quinnipiac poll of Florida has McCain at 32%, Romney at 31%, Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 13% among likely primary voters.
It's actually impressive that McCain's camp has had such success in getting Iraq back on the front burner. With Romney finding his comfort zone with the economy, McCain's camp has decided to try and change the subject. "On Sunday, Mr. Romney went on the offensive first, opening a new line of attack on Mr. McCain over economic issues and declining to continue the previous day’s spat over Iraq, calling it ‘yesterday’s news’ at a news conference here. Instead, Mr. Romney sought to revive an argument he used in Michigan. He took Mr. McCain to task for his proposal of a ‘cap and trade’ system for carbon dioxide emissions, saying it would cause energy costs to skyrocket and be a drag on the economy."
"McCain campaigned on Sunday morning in Tampa with Gov. Charlie Crist, who endorsed him on Saturday. Mr. McCain continued his focus on national security, touching only sparingly on the nation’s economic jitters.”
“‘Even if the economy is the, quote, No. 1 issue, the real issue will remain America’s security,’ Mr. McCain said to reporters, according to The Associated Press. ‘And if they choose to say, “Look, I do not need this guy because he’s not as good on home loan mortgages” or whatever it is, I understand about that, I will accept that verdict. I am running because of the transcendental challenge of the 21st century, which is radical Islamic extremism.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post examines the GOP strategies for February 5. "McCain and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani -- if he survives past Florida -- will spend much of their time in the Northeast and in California, where they hope big victories in the largest states will deliver the most delegates. Both will also aim for a few Southern or Midwestern states, such as Illinois and Georgia, where a lot of delegates are at stake."
"Romney has not decided which states to target on Feb. 5, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said. He said the candidate expects to perform well in Massachusetts, where he was governor, and to win in Utah -- Romney is a Mormon, and Mormonism is the dominant religion in the state. His personal wealth could also allow him to compete in more places than his rivals, though the campaign has so far focused its television advertising in Florida rather than in Super Tuesday states.”
“A top Romney adviser said the campaign is taking a ‘cost per delegate’ approach, looking to win delegates with the least amount of money spent on ads and time spent stumping by the candidate. The adviser said one target may be Colorado, where the campaign can stop after California and where a caucus will be held instead of a primary, something that may favor the well-organized Romney camp." And: "Mike Huckabee, who has not won since finishing first in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, has little money to work with and is concentrating on a few Southern states, where his campaign thinks that a strong showing will keep his candidacy alive. Huckabee left Florida on Saturday to stop at a Baptist college in Alabama and will appear Monday in Nashville, showing off his skills on bass guitar at a recording studio in the Music City while campaigning in another Feb. 5 state."
The Wall Street Journal does a February 5 preview. On the Dem side, because of the fact that most of the delegates are awarded via congressional district, rather than via statewide victories, much of the targeting by both campaigns is CD-based. "Based on these calculations, Mrs. Clinton is targeting 60 of the 224 districts in play on Feb. 5, across 17 states, one official said. Clinton campaign officials expect they may lose Colorado and Minnesota, but they have identified districts in each state where they might pick up extra delegates. Similarly, Mr. Obama doesn't expect to win California, but he is running ads in the San Francisco area hoping to pick up delegates in those congressional districts."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post takes a look at the Feb. 12 contests of VA, MD, and DC -- which could become important. Here's how things stand on the Dem side in these three states: "District Mayor Adrian M. Fenty, who endorsed Obama over the summer, brings a formidable canvassing and fundraising operation. In Maryland, Clinton has drawn the backing of Gov. Martin O'Malley and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown. Obama has the support of Attorney General Douglas F. Gansler, Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn F. Ivey and state Sen. Ulysses Currie (Prince George's). Former senator John Edwards of North Carolina has had a smaller presence. On the Republican side, Ehrlich's old organization is expected to help Giuliani with phone banks.”
“In the Virginia Democratic race, Clinton and Obama are staking claim to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's organization, which won the state in 2005 and helped the party take the state Senate last year. Kaine has endorsed Obama and campaigned for him in several primary states. But Kaine's 2005 campaign manager, Mike Henry, is working as Clinton's deputy campaign manager. Clinton's regional finance director is Matthew Felan, who directed Kaine's fundraising."
On the Republican side in Virginia, U.S. Sen. John W. Warner and Rep. Thomas M. Davis III have endorsed McCain. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is co-chairman of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's campaign in the state."
CLINTON: So now what? The New York Times writes that the Clinton campaign “will try to shift the former president back into the sunnier, supportive-spouse role that he played before Mrs. Clinton’s loss in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton advisers said. But Democrats said it was not clear whether the effects of Mr. Clinton’s high profile could be brushed away by having him modulate his campaign style. They said Mr. Clinton had upset some of the central themes of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, including her appeal to women and her assertions that her time in the White House during the 1990s amounted to vital experience rather than a link to a presidency defined as much by scandal and partisan divisions as by its successes on fronts like the economy."
More: "Clinton advisers said that Mr. Clinton would continue to campaign nearly full time for his wife in the days leading up to the Feb. 5 primaries and caucuses in 22 states, yet they added that he would take a more positive tone. They said his role would be akin to his effort before the Iowa caucuses, when he highlighted Mrs. Clinton’s record and her policy ideas, and was used in part to build huge crowds on college campuses rather than attack Mr. Obama. (It was after her third-place finish in Iowa that Mr. Clinton turned much more aggressive.) The campaign announced Sunday night that Mr. Clinton would speak on Tuesday at a college in New Jersey, which has a Feb. 5 primary."
Bloomberg's Al Hunt has a tough piece on the Clintons under the header: "Clinton Paying a Price for Duplicity on Obama."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Many reports today read like campaign obits for Giuliani. Of course, every time the collective press corps thinks a candidate's about to be left for dead on the GOP side, they go and surprise us. But... things aren't looking good for Rudy tomorrow. "Giuliani said he will keep making his case in what he considers to be a competitive three-man race. He plans to fly around the state Monday, following a bus tour of southeast Florida on Sunday."
MCCAIN: John McCain continues to admit that he's learned his lesson from last year's lost immigration fight. "McCain now is embracing a version of the attrition strategy to fight illegal immigration, saying his version of a guest-worker plan would actually force many illegal aliens to leave the country over the next couple of years. ‘I would propose, once the borders are secure and the borders stay government-certified, then I would have [a] tamper-proof biometric-document system so that the only people that can work are those who have that. And that would cause many more to leave this country,’ Mr. McCain told ‘Al Punto,’ Univision's Sunday political talk-show program, in an interview broadcast yesterday.”
The New York Times looks at the success McCain is having in wooing the establishment; a day doesn't go by without an endorsement from some well-known Republican official.
Of course, the one area of the GOP establishment McCain hasn't succeeded in wooing is the conservative establishment, but will that change with a win in Florida?
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, SC/TAMPA, FL -- According to the AP, it was a rout. Per Fournier, it was a landslide. George Bush might have referred to it as a “thumping.” Whatever you want to call it, Obama’s victory last night in South Carolina was by the biggest margin we’ve seen so far in a contested race this primary season. Obama did it by winning about 80% of the African-American vote, as well as about a quarter of the white vote. Sure, his share of the white vote there dropped some 10-plus points compared to other states. But remember, this is the South, and the white vote was always going to be a little more difficult for Obama to capture southern whites. Perhaps the most telling stat in the exit polls highlights the southern challenge for Obama: White voters over 60 supported Obama at a clip of less than 20%, while their children -- white voters under 30 -- supported Obama at just over a 50% clip. If anything, Obama’s victory should calm the campaign down after a tough week; the size was greater than either camp expected. It also should help with rounding up another round of endorsements. It's interesting, by the way, how easily Obama and McCain are picking up endorsements after New Hampshire, but how difficult Clinton and Romney have had securing the big nods. Will Obama have an eyebrow-raising nod nearly every day before February 5? Don't be surprised. Caroline Kennedy dominates today, and there's also California Rep. Xavier Becerra (D). Who's next?
*** Is it now all about Bill? The magnitude and size of Obama's South Carolina victory is likely to shift a negative focus on Bill Clinton's role in the campaign. Until yesterday, his role at been panned in the media -- but seen as successful in New Hampshire and Nevada. That was not the case yesterday. Camp Clinton is no doubt pondering some shift in Bill's role. Frankly, last night was strange when the first Clinton the world heard from last night on camera was Bill (from Missouri) and not Hill (from Tennessee). For a candidacy that swears is only about Hillary, having Bill be the first Clinton the public hears from sent the wrong signal.
*** On to February 5: With Clinton and Obama splitting the first four contests, we head into Tsunami Tuesday in a Democratic nominating race that seems entirely up for grabs. From our vantage point, these are Clinton’s base states: CA, NY, NJ, AR, MA, and OK. Obama’s are: AK, ID, KS, MN, ND, GA, AL, and IL. The toss-ups appear to be: AZ, CT, CO, DE, MO, NM, TN, and UT. Among those toss-ups, AZ and CT might lean towards Clinton, since they’re closed to independents, and TN -- where Clinton is today -- probably leans her way, too. Of course, Obama will make plays in CA, MA, and NJ, and sources tell us that he is going up with ads in Philly (NJ) and New York City (NY, NJ, CT). Also, Edwards will go heavily after OK and TN.
*** The Florida exhibition game: But what about Florida? Last night, in her concession statement, Clinton said, “We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the 22 states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.” Yet because Florida moved up its primary before February 5, the DNC stripped the state of all of its delegates, rendering the contest nothing more than a beauty contest or an exhibition game. So as we now head into the playoffs, Team Clinton believes that an upcoming exhibition game should matter. As the Obama campaign shot back in a statement yesterday afternoon, “It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath… If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause.”
*** Clinton-Obama isn’t the only contentious race going on: McCain vs. Romney is heating up big time. McCain's getting endorsements galore -- the Charlie Crist pick, coupled with Mel Martinez, gives McCain's folks every chance they can to make up whatever ground they think they need against Romney. It's a battle of two coalitions: Romney's putting together younger conservatives, talk-radio conservatives, and social conservative activists; McCain's got veterans, Cubans, moderates, and the 65+ crowd. Both are winning formulas in a multi-candidate primary. More importantly, both Romney and McCain have opponents taking a piece of their base coalition: Giuliani's hurting McCain with Cubans and moderates; Huckabee is hurting Romney with social conservatives. The big question is: Who needs Florida more? Probably Romney. A McCain victory in Florida may mean he's unstoppable; a Romney victory probably won't do enough to stop McCain from getting his share of delegates on February 5, since there's a chunk in the Northeast (NY, NJ, DE and CT) that are winner-take-all and likely to be hard for Romney to wrestle away. By the way, the Crist endorsement is gutsy politics for the Florida governor. If McCain wins, Crist becomes the single-most important kingmaker endorsement in the GOP primary. If McCain loses, it will cause Crist internal problems for some time, as he won't be the vaunted state party leader his approval ratings seem to hint at. By the way, Joe Lieberman goes back to Florida today to campaign for McCain...
*** On the trail: Clinton attends worship services in Memphis, TN; Edwards stumps in Dublin, GA; Giuliani is in Florida, where he speaks at a Boca Raton synagogue and then campaigns in Port St. Lucie, Vero Beach, and Cocoa Beach; Huckabee, also in Florida, speaks at First Baptist Orlando (closed to the press), then attends a Fair Tax rally in Jacksonville, and then delivers evening remarks at East Brent Baptist Church in Pensacola; McCain, in the Sunshine State campaigns in Polk City, Lake Lady, and Orlando; Obama makes remarks at Harvest Cathedral in Macon, GA and then heads to Birmingham, AL; and Romney, in Florida, attends fundraisers in Palm Beach and Boca Raton.
Countdown to Florida: 2 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 9 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 16 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 37 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 282 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 359 days
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Tonight's victory speech by Obama may be his best yet, powerful, looking toward the future and putting his opponents in their place while appearing to rise above the nasty attacks that have dominated the race for the past two weeks.
Obama told the crowd that change and overcoming the status quo would be difficult, reminding the crowd of the attacks he'd faced from the Clintons over the past two weeks. "We are up against an idea that it's acceptable to say anything and do anything to win an election," he said. "We know that this is exactly what's wrong with our politics."
But he also praised his opponents in the race, calling them "fierce competitors" and reminded the crowd that had booed Hillary Clinton all night that at the end of the day they were all competing for the Democratic nomination and would have to come together in the general election.
Obama also used the attacks of the past few weeks as a proof that there is a larger malaise within American politics that allows division to dominate the debate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
COLUMBIA, SC -- For those who haven’t heard: John Edwards is not dropping out tonight.
Following a litany of people whose voices he said would be heard in his campaign, the South Carolina native said, "Finally, if you’re one of the millions of Americans who have yet to cast your vote in this democratic process, beginning on Feb. 5 and moving beyond, your voice will be heard and we will be there with you every single step of the way."
Despite a third-place finish in his home state, Edwards will turn his attention to Feb. 5 states, appearing first tomorrow in Dublin, Ga. and continuing on to Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, Minnesota and North Dakota by mid-week. Senior adviser Joe Trippi maintained that the former North Carolina senator will be competitive on Super Tuesday -- doing better in some states than he did today in South Carolina.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's David Shuster
More than 500,000 votes were cast today in this Democratic primary...
That is higher than the 450,000 who voted last Saturday in the GOP South Carolina primary. And the turnout today is up by 75% compared to the Democratic primary turnout in 2004... That primary turnout was 290,000.
From NBC's Abby Livingston and Donna Nelson
Caroline Kennedy is off the fence. After making twin $2,300 donations to Obama and Clinton in 2007, she is endorsing Obama in Sunday’s New York Times -- in a piece entitled "A President Like My Father."
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan adds, Kennedy echoes what many voters on the ground have said about Obama after hearing him speak that he could inspire a generation in the way that her father did.
"I have never had a president inspire me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I bleieve I have found the man who could be that president - not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans," Kennedy writes.
She also praises Obama for his vision and says that he's "run a dignified campaign," a clear reference to the attacks from the Clinton campaign this past week.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
ORLANDO, FL -- Charlie Crist is on the agenda for the Orange County Lincoln Day Dinner, just below Giuliani as the guest of honor. But an endorsement is not on the menu.
Crist did not appear at the dinner -- he changed his plans several days ago, sources said -- but his presence was certainly felt. Giuliani aides were visibly upset Saturday at the news that the popular Florida governor would be backing McCain.
Giuliani campaign sources said Crist pledged his endorsement to Giuliani in the early fall, when McCain’s campaign appeared dead and Giuliani was leading the state by double digits. But at the time, McCain supporters leaned on Crist to hold back and wait until after the New Hampshire primary. McCain had campaigned for Crist when he was seeking the Republican nomination for governor, and had hoped Crist would return the favor.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
First, it was a landslide among black voters. Obama received about 80% of the African American vote. The size of his vote was nearly uniform across every demographic group among blacks, as well as nearly every issue or opinion question in the poll: old, young, male, female, well educated, poorly educated -- all of them broke in pretty much the same way.
As for the white vote, Obama did not win the majority but neither did either of his two rivals. In fact, while Clinton got 36% of the white vote -- it really was pretty close to a three-way split; Edwards got 40% and Obama 24%.
An MSNBC/McClatchy poll released on Thursday showed Obama's support among white voters to be 10%. So consider his showing tonight a big improvement.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Clinton released this statement: "I have called Senator Obama to congratulate him and wish him well. Thank you to the people of South Carolina who voted today and welcomed me into their homes over the last year. Your stories will stay with me well beyond this campaign and I am grateful for the support so many of you gave to me. We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th.
"In the days ahead, I'll work to give voice to those who are working harder than ever to be heard. For those who have lost their job or their home or their health care, I will focus on the solutions needed to move this country forward. That's what this election is about. It's about our country, our hopes and dreams. Our families and our future."
A quick note about Clinton's statement: While American Samoa will actually award delegates to the Democratic National Convention, Florida WILL NOT. The Democratic National Committee stripped Florida -- like it did Michigan -- of ALL of its delegates for moving its primary before February 5. The eventual nominee can decide to sit Florida's and Michigan's delegates at the convention, but they won't count toward deciding the nominee.
So while Florida Democrats will vote in the state's primary on January 29, the contest will not be awarding delegates.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Dozens and dozens of members of the media, yours truly included, were in line being cleared by the Secret Service watching events unfold on a big screen, projected backwards, as MSNBC came up and Obama was declared the winner. The breadth and quickness of the victory was surprising to most everyone here. "Really?" one reporter said. "Calling it already? Wow."
The room here at the Columbia Convention Center could fit three full-size basketball courts, and it would take four or five 6-feet-tall people standing on each other's shoulders to reach the ceiling. The room even has the feel of a sporting event. Tons of media, bleachers (called risers here and in TV land) on all four sides of the room, and even, yes, a full marching band
In measuring the fervor of this crowd, which is not really starting to fill in, as Hillary Clinton came up on the screen recently, overwhelming boos came up from the Obama faithful. The fervor is palpable. "Ready to Go! Fired up!" and Go-bama, go" chants are begining to come to a full boil and rise, which is now being joined in by cymbals and bass drum. One gets the sense that this place will really get loud when the candidate takes the stage. This could really be a knock-down, drag-out fight for the nomination complete with complicated delegate math. Stay tuned.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Of Obama's sweeping South Carolina victory, Obama Chief Strategist David Axelrod said, "This was a good, old fashioned butt kicking -- as we say in this business."
He credited turnout, which he said approached half a million people and Obama's broad support, including getting 24% of the white vote, according to exit polls. "He's bring new people into the party," Axelrod said, adding, "It's just a harbinger of things to come."
Axelrod also questioned the Clinton spin of trying to make Florida and Michigan relevant after all the candidates had signed pledges to not campaign there, including an afternoon memo on the topic.
"It is kind of curious," he said, smiling wryly. "We all agreed to the Democratic Party rules. We all signed a pledge.
"When that memo came out in the middle of the afternoon, I knew this would be a good day."
NBC projects that Clinton will finish second in South Carolina.
A little bit of non-Democratic news... Florida Gov.
Charlie Crist (R) is to endorse
McCain.
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam VerdugoThe South Carolina Democratic primary has been a bitter, hard-fought contest with
Hillary Clinton and
Barack Obama taking jabs at each other in Monday's televised debate. In the exit polls, we asked voters in this primary if the candidates were attacking each other unfairly. Fifty-six percent of those voting so far think Obama attacked Clinton unfairly, and while that is a high number, more people thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama -- 70%.
The Clintons have been accused of playing the race card in this contest. We do see some potential fallout for the Clintons in the African-American community: 74% of African-American voters think that Clinton unfairly attacked Obama. But when we look at the same question among white voters, a comparable number thought Clinton unfairly attacked Obama -- 68%.
Also worth mentioning, a majority of the voters -- 56% -- said that Bill Clinton's campaigning was important to their vote today.
NBC News has declared Barack Obama the projected winner in South Carolina by a substantial margin. Hillary Clinton is running second and Edwards third.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
COLUMBIA, SC -- At the end of a week in which he’s often been the center of attention, former president Bill Clinton struck a conciliatory note, admitting that he has gotten “hot” defending his wife even as he defended his campaign role.
"I have not said anything that is factually inaccurate," he said.
Clinton had some scrambled eggs and grits with supporters this morning before setting off to visit polling locations here and upstate. As he greeted voters at the Meadowlake polling station, a woman greeted him and said, “You’re doin’ good. Just watch what you say.”
“My message has been 99.9% positive for 100% of this campaign,” Clinton said to reporters later. “I think that when I think she’s being misrepresented, I have a right to try to with factual accuracy set the record straight, which is what I’ve tried to do.”
A number of prominent Barack Obama supporters and neutral observers have criticized Clinton’s vocal role on his wife’s behalf. John Kerry told National Journal that “being an ex-president does not give you license to abuse the truth.”
“Did you notice he didn’t specify?” Clinton said when asked about the comment. “They never do. They hurl these charges, but nothing gets specified. I'm not taking the bait today. I did what I could to help Senator Kerry every time he needed me, and every time he asked me. He can support whomever he wants for whatever reason he wants. But there's nothing for me to respond to.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, SC -- While Bill Clinton has made much of the news here, there is another candidate’s spouse who is pushing hard on the trail in South Carolina: Michelle Obama. She has canvassed the state with as many events as the former president and with as broad a message as her husband -- but also with a large focus on women.
There was a decisive gender gap in the New Hampshire primary -- unlike in Iowa -- and many political observers have credited the bloc with turning that election Hillary Clinton’s way. In South Carolina, voters appear split along racial and generational lines. And women appear to be breaking that way as well.
“Obviously, with women being such a large portion of the electorate, it’s important,” said Katie McCormick-Lelyveld, spokeswoman for Michelle Obama, who stressed that it’s not her entire message, but that it is important to explain what the Obamas are like as a family -- a clear appeal to women.
Michelle Obama’s ease and ability to connect with women was evident at a women’s roundtable here Thursday at a child development center. She started the event off by reading to pre-schoolers, and it was clear this wasn’t the first time she’d done this.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Bethany Thomas
Sun City Center, FL -- McCain stepped up the back-and-forth between him and Romney today by taking the tiff to the stage. Usually, McCain avoids taking swipes at his fellow candidates in front of voters and usually saves the big talk for the media.
But today, McCain attacked Romney on the stump. “Governor Romney last April said he believed we should set up a, quote, timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. My friends, when he suggested that, General Petraeus’ new strategy in Iraq was just beginning. That didn’t work. They said there wouldn’t be any difference between the Democrat position on the issue and the Republican. I’ll tell you, my friends: There’s a great deal of difference between mine and Senator Clinton’s -- who said in 60 days after she is president, she would withdraw troops. That’s surrender. That’s waving the white flag.”
“I understand that Governor Romney has changed his position again, and he has said on several other issues. But, my friends, I was there. He said that he wanted a timetable for withdrawal. That would have meant disaster. That would have meant that Al Qaeda would have been telling the world that they defeated the United States of America. Now, Governor Romney has said that he thinks maybe that I should apologize for saying what is clearly on the record as his support for timetables for withdrawal. I think the apology is owed to the young men and women who are serving this nation in uniform and we will not let them down and hard times or good. There’s who the apology is owed to.”
From NBC's Terry Pickard
An update from South Carolina's Elections Commission:
Turnout is heavier than last Saturday's GOP primary.
Reports from various counties:
Marlboro County -- heavy
Dorchester County -- slightly heavier than last weekend
Charleston County -- much heavier in some precincts
Williamsburg County -- average
Edgefield County -- very busy
Cherokee County -- greater turnout than last week
Hampton County -- turnout is much higher than last week
Darlington County -- fairly good
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today in previewing the South Carolina contest, we asked if the Clinton campaign would once again win the expectations game -- after surprising everyone (including themselves) by winning New Hampshire and casting themselves as the underdogs in Nevada, despite leading in every poll there but one.
Well, they're giving it their best shot. "The Obama campaign has been so confident of winning South Carolina that six months ago they flatly predicted victory in the Palmetto State," Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson writes in a memo. "Cornell Belcher, Senator Obama’s pollster, stated explicitly to the Politico on July 25, 2007, 'We are going to outright win South Carolina.' And today, Senator Obama leads by 12, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls taken in South Carolina over the last 10 days."
Then Wolfson says this: "Regardless of today’s outcome, the race quickly shifts to Florida, where hundreds of thousands of Democrats will turn out to vote on Tuesday. Despite efforts by the Obama campaign to ignore Floridians, their voices will be heard loud and clear across the country, as the last state to vote before Super Tuesday on February 5th. This remains a delegate fight, with 1,681 delegates at stake on February 5th, and 2,025 needed to secure the nomination -- and we are ahead in that fight."
In fact, Obama actually leads the delegate race so far. Also, the Democratic National Committee stripped Florida of ALL of its delegates to the Democratic convention after it moved up its contest before February 5. So the Florida Democratic contest -- no matter how many people turn out to vote there -- will not award a single delegate.
“It should not be surprising given recent events that the Clinton campaign would in one breath say the election is about winning delegates and then tout their success in states that don’t award any delegates in the next breath," Obama spokesman Bill Burton says in a statement. "The DNC has made clear that the winner of the contest in Florida will not receive any delegates, so the next step in this nominating process is February 5th. If the Clinton campaign's southern strength rests on the outcome in a state where they're the only ones competing, that should give Democrats deep pause."
Burton added, “Again, no one is more disappointed that Florida and Michigan Democrats will have no role in selecting delegates for the nomination of the party’s standard bearer than Senator Obama, but he looks forward to vigorously competing for their votes in the general election.”
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
ORLANDO, FL -- On a busy Florida campaign day for Mike Huckabee, three things are sweet: Florida oranges, southern barbeque, and Republicans -- at least compared with the Dems.
"That ought to tell America [to] vote for us," Huckabee said of his Democratic rivals, who are engaged today in a bitter battle for South Carolina that many commentators believe has become increasingly nasty in recent days. "Look how mean they are. Nicen up, like us!"
Huckabee's good-natured scolding of his "mean" counterparts came during an impromptu press conference at an orange grove in Polk County, Florida. The former Arkansas governor visited a 40-acre grove that supplies juice for several national chains.
Asked about his strategy to campaign heavily in Southern states like Alabama and Tennessee, Huckabee pointed to the citrus. "The same reason these guys came here to pick oranges, you know? That's where the oranges are. That's where I'm going to try to be on February 5th as much as I can."
Huckabee faces an uphill battle as his state-focused campaign looks to the national spotlight of Tsunami Tuesday. His recent push in Florida comes in the face of rough poll numbers in the Sunshine State. No pessimism was evident at a later stop in Lakeland, though, when Huckabee was mobbed by press and chanting supporters at a barbeque cookoff and tasting.
Despite the niceties from the jovial ex-governor, though, Huckabee hinted that the race in Florida and beyond might not stay so sweet and sunny. "We may get mean before its over," he said. Grinning, he added, "I won't, of course. But those other guys, they might."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
LAND O'LAKES, FL -- NBC's Bethany Thomas reported earlier today that McCain accused Romney of wanting "to set a date for withdrawal, similar to what the Democrats are seeking -- which would have led to a victory by al Qaeda, in my view."
Informed by a reporter that McCain had made those remarks, Romney responded tersely: "You know, I don’t know why he’s being dishonest. But that’s dishonest. To say that I have a specific date is simply wrong and is dishonest and he should apologize. That is not the case. I’ve never said that."
And he lashed out: "I know he’s trying desperately to change the topic from the economy and trying to get back to Iraq. But to say something that’s not accurate is simply wrong and he knows better."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
COLUMBIA, SC -- Hillary Clinton and her daughter, Chelsea, spent Saturday morning making retail stops at local restaurants, urging people to go vote.
The first stop was a Shoney's restaurant. "Thanks for your support. I really appreciate it," Clinton told one woman, after posing for pictures.
The pair spent more than an hour greeting mostly black diners. US Rep. Laura Richardson (D), who represents Los Angeles communities like Compton, Watts, and Long Beach, was traveling with Clinton. She introduced herself to a table of black youth by asking if they'd ever heard of the LBC (an abbreviation that has come to mean "Long Beach, CA" and was popularized by rapper Snoop Dogg: "With so much drama in the LBC, it's kinda hard bein' Snoop D-O-double-G") and explaining the senator had been to that community many times.
"She gets it," Richardson said. "And I support her 100%."
One 20-year-old woman said she would be voting today for the first time, but didn't know where she needed to go. An elderly woman arrived wearing an "I voted" sticker. She said she had voted for Obama because she liked "what he stands for."
The next stop was Liberty Tap Room & Grill, a restaurant steps from the capitol, where the crowd was mostly white and the mob scene of reporters and photojournalists overwhelmed the diners.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas
FT MYERS, Fla. -- At the home of the largest collection of common and rare seashells in the world, McCain received two New York City Police Department endorsements. The New York City Captains Endowment Association and the New York City Sergeants Benevolent Association -- made up of approximately 11,000 active and retired NYPD sergeants -- gave their nod to the Arizona senator this morning before a crowd of mostly tanned retirees.
“Some of the qualities that we’re known for is our leadership, integrity, courage, problem solving, conviction,” said Roy Richter, president of the New York City Captains Endowment Association. “Those were the qualities that we were looking for to endorse a candidate for president of the United States and we’re happy to offer our endorsement to a true American hero, a person of conviction and leadership, John McCain.”
The endorsements could be seen as a slap against former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani who usually receives the majority of the country's first responders support. McCain thanked the men. “These are the heroes of the United States," McCain said. "These are the heroes of 9-11. I have never been more honored to have your endorsement.”
Many city unions, including the NYPD, have been at odds with Giuliani since his mayoral days, as contract negotiations between the police and the mayor's office grew increasingly tense.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- At an adjacent table to mine this morning at the famed country cooking locale Lizard’s Thicket, where MSNBC's Morning Joe was being shot, Rep. Jim Clyburn was interviewed by a traveling camera crew. He talked about race in South Carolina and telling Bill Clinton to “chill.”
Clyburn, who has remained neutral in this race, said he told Bill Clinton "to watch what and how he says it because there are a lot of people who see Barack Obama as their hopes and dreams. And they're going to feel like you’re throwing cold water on their dream." He called Obama’s South Carolina ground organization “the best I’ve ever seen here.” Clyburn also talked about his own efforts through a 501(c)4 he launched to try and get young African Americans involved in politics, in becoming field captains and doing the real organizational leg work of politics.
He was effusive in his praise of Obama's efforts and effects of getting young African Americans involved in this once-segregated state. Clyburn didn’t mention anything about Hillary Clinton. In fact, Clinton only came up once as he talked about his conversation with the former president. He also spoke of his own participation in the civil rights struggles of the 1960s and even having been jailed for three days here in Columbia as a result.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
SARASOTA, Fla. -- Giuliani said voters should ignore the polls and said he enjoyed being the underdog in the race for Florida’s Republican delegates.
“I like feeling like I’m an underdog,” he said. “I think underdogs get a lot of sympathy, a lot of support, they get a lot of interest. But who knows? Who knows if somebody’s an underdog or not an underdog. The voters will decide that and they’re deciding that over the last two weeks and they will decide it for sure on Tuesday.”
He laughed when asked if he was looking for sympathy votes. “No, I think you get a lot of attention as the underdog and there’s a certain feeling of coming from behind that appeals to the American people,” he said.
The latest polls have shown Giuliani in third or fourth place in Florida, but he advised voters to look past the polling. “I say, ‘don’t look at the polls, look into your heart and decide who it is you believe will make the best president and vote for that person,’” Giuliani said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Nice-guy candidate Mike Huckabee campaigning in Florida ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary here has some advice for the Democrats. "Those guys ought to be nice like us," he said. "That ought to tell America vote for us, look how mean they are. Nicen up, like us! Of course, we may get mean before its over so... I won't, of course. But those other guys, they might."
On his Southern strategy: "I'm not sure I'll expect to win Utah," he said. "But I think I'll win Georgia. I believe I'll win Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Missouri. I hope Alabama. You know, the same reason these guys came here to pick oranges, you know? That's where the oranges are. That's where I'm going to try to be on February 5th as much as we can."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Obama railed against the status quo in his late night rally just hours before polls open in South Carolina Saturday. He told the crowd that change was harder than many people had expected.
"After we won Iowa, everybody was so excited. Everybody said oh look at this an African American is winning in a state where there are almost no African Americans and young people are excited, and everybody's excited and young people came out. And I think people started thinking you know this is a lark," he said.
"But you know the status quo doesn't give up easily," he said. "The drug and the insurance companies they aren't going to say we'll give up our profits you can have healthcare reform. The oil companies will say okay we're not going to run up energy bills please."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
FLORENCE, S.C. -- The crowd was chanting "We Want Change, We Want It Now" while they waited for Barack Obama here last night. The room looked big and packed, but since the press was kept in the dark -- literally there were no lights over the rows of tables or the risers it was a little hard to tell.
Obama introduced a special guest, Judge Glenda Hatchett, who along with her mother is a strong supporter of the senator.
"So if any of y'all have problems, disputes you need resolved..You talk her. The neighbor you know, neighbor's dog torn up your lawn or something," he joked.
Obama kept his stump speech to just 39 minutes and hit Clinton on recent attacks and told the crowd that he wasn't a Muslim and he had "praised Jesus" at the same church for 20 years.
"I respect other people's religions. I just don't like it when they lie about mine," he told the crowd, who shouted out that he should repeat his quote.
He asked the crowd to sign up and volunteer tomorrow and said that the campaign had gotten a 1,000 pledges to volunteer tomorrow, including 700 at an event in North Charleston the night before.
From NBC's Chuck ToddOur Mason-Dixon pollster, Brad Coker, emailed this morning responding to our First Thought graph which cites the 2004 S.C. Dem exit poll showing white voters out-numbering black voters. He disputes the 2004 exit poll. Here's his explanation:
"Keep in mind that exit polls can be flawed as an overall demographic
indicator, as they are taken at a limited number of static polling
locations. They are also often 'adjusted' after the fact to match the
actual outcome, and some categories get bent around the edges to make them fit.
To get a real handle on what the African-American vote is likely to be, one only needs to look at real numbers. The South Carolina Secretary of State's office published the following statistics on South Carolina's 2004 and 2006 state Democratic primary elections. These are based on real voters, not a survey sampling.
According to the state's statistics, the '04 Dem primary for president attracted 58% of non-white voters compared to 42% of white voters; In the '06 Dem primary for governor, the ratio was 60-40 in favor of black voters.
These hard numbers show a much higher percentage of African-American voters in South Carolina's state primary races for Governor and U.S. Senate, so I don't think it is a stretch to expect a similar turn-out in a presidential primary that features a major African-American contender. If anything, 55% black might actually end up being a bit on the low side. I will be very surprised if a clear majority of today's Democratic primary voters are not African-American."
Obviously, Brad does this for a living and has a tremendous track record in South Carolina in particular. I remember in '98, he was the only public pollster to see the Jim Hodges upset for governor.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, SC/TAMPA, FL -- It’s been a tough last seven days for Barack Obama. It began with his loss in Nevada, a contest where most polls showed him trailing Clinton; still, many -- buying the spin from Team Clinton -- viewed him as the favorite there because he won the Culinary Workers Union endorsement. Next came the CNN debate, the aftermath of which put the Obama camp on the defensive (over Rezko, single-payer health care). And as the New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny put it this morning, “For all of the sunny self-assurance that has propelled him to this juncture … Mr. Obama grappled to find a balance between defending himself against accusations he called distorted and promoting a message of hopeful change in a state that is essential to his bid for the presidency.” Yet today’s Democratic primary in that state -- South Carolina -- presents him with the opportunity to put the past seven days behind him and give him momentum heading into February 5. Indeed, if we learned one thing from Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire (besides being more cautious about reading polls), it’s that victory and momentum can come out of frustration, disorganization, and total chaos.
*** Will Clinton once again win the expectations game? As for Hillary Clinton, there have been several signs that her campaign is downplaying expectations in South Carolina, despite its strong ad buy and deploying Bill and Chelsea to campaign here. For instance, Hillary skipped the state for two days (on Tuesday and Wednesday) to campaign instead in February 5 states. The campaign also seems to be trying to make Florida as relevant as possible, even though the state won’t be awarding delegates. And now we get word that Clinton won’t even be in South Carolina tonight. Rather, she’ll head to the February 5 state of Tennessee. (By the way, this is a page out of the '92 Clinton playbook -- always be in a state that's about to vote, not a state that's already voted.) Nevertheless, remember that Clinton led in South Carolina polls until early December, and that this is a state her husband carried in 1992.
*** The Edwards factor: Finally, there’s John Edwards… If Obama ends up winning this contest, he can in part thank the former North Carolina senator, who seems to be splitting the white vote with Clinton. Edwards also appears to be riding some momentum with his Mr. Nice Guy approach after Monday’s vicious debate between Clinton and Obama. “While Senator Clinton and Senator Obama seem intent on tearing each other down, I'm intent on building you up,” Edwards says in a new radio ad. Moreover, his campaign actually has been outspending both Obama and Clinton on TV ads this past week. In fact, according to our sources, Obama's ranks THIRD in TV-ad spending here over the past week. Overall, Edwards will have spent more on TV ads in South Carolina than either of the two front-runners combined ... that’s right, combined! Could he finish second here? And what would that mean? Edwards staked his entire candidacy on doing well in the first four contests, especially Iowa. And, unless the unexpected happens, he will finish 0 for 4 -- a result that would only increase the number of vultures circling over his candidacy.
*** Things to keep an eye on: As much as we'd like for race to not be a part of the picture, it is. In 2004, the makeup of the Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina was 51% white and 47% black. In that contest, Edwards won over 50% of the white vote and narrowly won the black vote over Kerry, 37%-34% with Sharpton getting 17%. Overall, Edwards beat Kerry, 45%-30%, followed by Sharpton at 10%. Turnout was just under 300,000 in 2004. Also of note, 24% of the 2004 Dem electorate was independent. What does that mean for today? Well, the most recent MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll anticipates an electorate that's 55% African-American and 42% white. Obviously, the Obama campaign hopes the electorate today is closer to Mason-Dixon's survey than the 2004 exit poll. And that's basically THE number to watch for -- the black-white split. More importantly, what will the white number be for Obama? In the last poll we conducted, Obama received just 10% of the white vote; that was a 10-point drop from a week earlier. Also, watch how black women break. In the poll and on the ground, young, black women tend to support him, but not older ones necessarily
*** The basics: Polls in South Carolina open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET. There are 45 pledged delegates at stake. The primary is open, so Democrats, independents, and Republicans can all vote -- provided they didn't participate in the GOP primary last week. And how about this: Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson will all be on the ballot, per the state election commission.
*** Bill’s Jedi mind tricks: So Bill Clinton apparently isn't interested in just messing with Obama's head; he's also turned his attention to McCain. Here’s what Bill said yesterday: "[Hillary] and John McCain are very close. They always laugh that if they wound up being the nominees of their party it would be the most civilized election in American history and they're afraid they'd put the voters to sleep because they like and respect each other." OK, anyone else think Clinton's up to something? Could Mitt Romney's campaign in Florida have asked for a better soundbite from the ex-president than the one he provided yesterday? Seriously, just as Romney and McCain are sparring over Republican credentials, here comes Bill Clinton insisting that McCain and Hillary Clinton are "very close." At some point, that's going to be turned into a TV ad or a radio ad or an attack direct mail piece. Talk radio will have a FIELD day with that one. Of course, the McCain folks could try and convince the right that this is Bill Clinton using his Jedi mind tricks on them, but will they listen; Are these the conservative droids voters are looking for? By the way, is there an op-ed page in America that doesn't have someone writing negatively about Bill's role in this campaign? Bob Herbert's column today was pretty rough. Once South Carolina is over, are we looking at Bill Clinton becoming the sole focus of attention over the next week leading into February 5?
*** The Florida sideshow: It’s also interesting to see the Clinton campaign work the non-binding Florida primary vote so hard. First, the campaign releases a statement promising to sit the Florida delegation at the convention. Then, a few hours later, the state's senior Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson, endorses Clinton (a rare recent red-state endorsement for her). Clearly, the Clinton campaign is nervous Obama gets a head of steam out of South Carolina today, and they'd like to blunt the momentum a tad. A convincing straw vote finish on Tuesday could do that. Will she hold a rally that night so that there is something for the news channels to dip into and she can give a victory speech? Tuesday night gamesmanship on the Democratic side will be interesting to follow. Sure, we'll be focused on the incredible McCain-Romney race in Florida and the potential end of the Giuliani candidacy. But seeing how Clinton declares victory in Florida and watching Obama handle the night will make for a good sideshow.
*** Florida's main event: What a difference a day makes. Thursday night, the Republican candidates wanted nothing nasty to do with each other. A day later? And it appears McCain decided to use all of his negative oppo against Romney and vice versa. Does McCain regret not using some of his negative Romney message in Thursday's debate? Because yesterday, he couldn't avoid the topic. Will this be how things close in Florida with McCain-Romney in a knock-down drag out?
*** On the trail: On the Dem side, Clinton has various events in South Carolina before heading to Nashville, TN, where she holds a town hall this evening; Edwards, who spend his entire day in the Palmetto State, stumps in Mt. Pleasant and Columbia, where he holds his Election Night party; and Obama also is in the state, and he has his Election Night party at the Columbia Convention Center. On the GOP side, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, and Romney are all in Florida, although Huckabee later travels to an event in Birmingham, AL.
Countdown to Florida: 3 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 10 days
Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 17 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 38 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 283 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 360 days
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Despite Bill Clinton’s scolding of the media for asking him race-related questions, race is very much an issue on the ground here in South Carolina. Overwhelmingly, black voters are backing Obama, according to the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll (and others). They like his policies, yes, but they also say it’s a great feeling of possibility to have a viable African-American candidate, something Bill Clinton, himself, has acknowledged.
On the flip side, Obama is getting just an astoundingly low 10% of the white vote in the Mason-Dixon poll -- despite winning in lilly-white Iowa and his broad message. Edwards, the only viable white male on the Democratic side and native South Carolinian, has surged among whites. He, in fact, now leads among the trifecta of candidates, 40%-36% over Clinton. Obama’s support among whites has been slashed in half since the last time the poll was conducted.
At a well-attended, Clinton event this morning at Benedict College, a historically black college, almost all of the attendees were African American. One white woman in attendance said she had been for Hillary since she began running. This gregarious woman ticked off reason after reason for why she’s for Hillary. When asked what she thinks of Obama and Edwards, she replied only, “I like John Edwards.”
She was content to leave it at that, but after a five-second pause, this reporter asked, “What about Obama?”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
PENSACOLA -- Romney responded to McCain's attacks today that he's a manager rather than a leader with a counterpunch of his own.
After opening his remarks at a rally here, he said, "I guess Sen. McCain didn't think as positively of that debate last night as I did, and so he's had to come back and flail a bit, trying to attack my record."
Romney ticked off the lines on his resume that he believes qualify him to take charge of national economic troubles (like his business background, gubernatorial experience, and Olympics leadership), he gave a proverbial raise of the eyebrows to McCain.
Romney said McCain thinks "being on the Commerce Committee in the Senate, that's what gives you the expertise you need to know about how the economy works." He added sarcastically, "Yeah, oh yeah," before citing several of McCain's quotes in the last several years in which the Arizona senator acknowledges his weakness in economic matters comparative to his knowledge of foreign and military issues.
"Now I think that's straight talk, all right?" Romney went on, "Washington talk says that somehow because you've been in Washington and you've been on a committee that you somehow know about how the jobs of this country are created."
Polls have shown the race tightening between the two men in the Sunshine State in recent days, with the two of them alternating leads. The battle is slated to get even more intense tonight when Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, the immediate past chairman of the Republican National Committee, announces his endorsement of McCain.
A Friday bonus: John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times interviews Obama campaign manager
David Plouffe.
Check it out.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
EDITOR’S NOTE: There has been a lot of confusion over a whispered moment from last night’s debate -- someone saying what we believe was “not raise taxes” after a question from Tim Russert on Reagan and social security. We put the following post up last night immediately following what we and several First Read commenters heard.
For full disclosure, the way it works for us when we’re liveblogging is our contributors, who are either on site at the location or in D.C. or elsewhere, will usually send me posts via e-mail. While I am watching the debate, I read the dispatches, post if applicable after quickly editing and put up my own thoughts. Regular e-mail questions get mixed in sometimes. I put this one up, but when I did, Lauren Appelbaum wrote me and said it was not necessarily intended to be a post but actually just a question to me if I knew who made the "taxes" comment. Being in South Carolina, following the Democrats for their primary and not on site in Florida, I didn’t know. We thought it might have simply been our control room cueing a question, which then didn’t seem to warrant a post, since that would be very inside baseball. So, I took it down.
After some of the confusion today, we are putting it back up for those that haven’t seen it. As far as figuring out the mystery of who or where it came from, that is being worked on, and we hope to have an answer soon. It puzzled us here too, and we’re looking through tape of other candidates to see if it was one of them. We’ll let you know. Here's the original post:
The taxes whisper
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
After Russert asked Romney the question on Reagan -- “Will you do for social security what Ronald Reagan did in 1983?” -- there is an audible statement in just one channel of audio saying “not raise taxes.”
Then Romney says “I’m not going to raise taxes…”
First Read commenters also noticed this -- where did this come from?
*** UPDATE *** After reviewing the tapes, NBC determined that an open mic picked up a whisper from the audience. It is unclear who it is that says it, but it was not said by any of the candidates, was not heard in the hall and, more importantly, not heard by the candidates.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
FORT LAUDERDALE, FL – In an effort to break the dead heat that seems to be developing between himself and Romney in most of the recent Florida polls, McCain subtly rolled out a new strategy last night: management vs. leadership.
Most of the GOP presidential candidates have tried this anti-Romney strategy at one point or another, but this morning McCain explained his version -- invoking the names of Ronald Reagan and Gen. David Petraeus as examples of true leaders. "I think everybody knows the difference between leadership and management," McCain told a group of reporters gathered at an airport here. "You can hire managers all the time, people who do the mechanics, people who implement policies, people who are good with assets. Leadership is people who inspire… Leadership is people who have had hands on experience with patriotism and service to the nation… Leadership is the ability to inspire and the ability to make Americans serve causes greater than their self-interest."
Asked what that description of leadership implied about his biggest opponent in Florida, McCain said, "Governor Romney is touting his qualities and his experience and resume as a manager. I am telling the American people that I am a leader and they know it."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC special contributor John Wheatley
BOSTON -- Hundreds of Boston College students and faculty crowded Hillside Cafe here yesterday for a rare on-the-record campaign appearance by Chelsea Clinton, the former first daughter. Chelsea, who was generally kept well out of the media's sight during the Clinton presidency and has not said a great deal publicly during her mother's campaign, was well received by a crowd that overflowed on to the sidewalk and out into the street in front of the café. She made brief opening remarks before opening it up to questions from the audience, answering directly most of the questions asked of her.
She spoke cogently, showing a strong knowledge of policy specifics. She drew laughter when she waved to a small group of pro-life protesters who were holding signs up against the café’s windows. Avoiding direct criticism of her mother’s rivals, Chelsea answered questions about them by focusing instead on her mother’s record as senator.
Yesterday's event was sponsored by Boston College's chapter of the College Democrats. The sudden push by Team Clinton to increase Chelsea’s role on the campaign trail is part of a larger campaign strategy to woo young voters, who may be drawn to Obama’s youth and theme of change.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
MIAMI, Fla. -- Giuliani played maracas to the chants of “U.S.A.” as he told Cuban Americans that the country was better off with their presence.
“I know it’s two words -- Cuban American, but you know something, it’s not two words,” Giuliani said, as his words were loosely interpreted into Spanish at the Little Havana Activities and Nutrition Center. “But what’s the last name of all of us? Americans. That’s what we are. We bring with us our different religions, we bring with us our different traditions, we bring with us our different foods. And that’s why it’s the best country in the world, because you make it that way.”
Giuliani reiterated that he would like as president to travel to a democratic Cuba.
“There is no change in a Castro regime that changes from Fidel Castro to Raul Castro,” he said. “I understand that and will not be fooled by that."
He made a veiled reference to what he calls his opponents newfound support for Cuban Americans.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten
Dennis Kucinich may be out of the presidential race, but he’s not finished campaigning, just yet.
“I won’t be president, but I can continue to fight for these important issues as a U.S. Congressman,” said the former dark horse presidential candidate of universal healthcare and ending the war in Iraq during a press conference in Cleveland this afternoon. Kucinich, the former mayor of Cleveland, now represents the district, and is facing four challengers in the March 4 Democratic primary.
“I’m directing my energies to being re-elected to the Congress of the United States,” he told reporters, while flanked by supporters and his wife, Elizabeth. He went on to say that he will channel his presidential campaign into a new organization to push his anti-war, pro-labor agenda, called “Integrity Now” -- but the website, as of this writing, was just a sign-up sheet for future newsletters.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
MIAMI, Fla. -- Romney spoke straight to Florida voters this morning at a meeting of the Latin Builders Association with a housing-focused speech in which he unveiled even more new rhetoric on the issue.
And maintaining his pattern throughout all of the early states, he made deep appeals to the community here in Miami by dredging up his personal connections here. “I’ve had a long relationship with your city,” he said, adding, “The truth is that I never would have been able to get going in my own business had it not been for Miami, and particularly the Hispanic community.”
He proceeded with the story of how his consulting work met with limited success -- “Now it takes a degree of chutzpah to go to somebody and say, ‘Give me your money, I will invest it for you, and I’ll give you back 80 percent of the profit I make, and I’m going to keep 20 percent of the profit I make. I’m going to charge you a two-percent fee for your money, and by the way if I lose your money, too bad.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Much has been made of the generational gap between the candidates in the race and voters going to the polls tomorrow. But what about reporters covering the election?
As surrogates flood South Carolina and other early primary states, the who's who game sometimes comes down to whether you were wearing bell bottoms or baggy jeans. At Starbucks the other day on Gervais St in downtown Columbia, Mary Wilson made a surprise appearance. I smiled and nodded and shook her hand, while some older latte sippers downright swooned. For those of you who don't know, Mary Wilson was in The Supremes.
Just the other day, Usher stumped for Obama in Orangeburg. He was joined on stage by Kerry Washington and Chris Tucker. A few more veteran reporters asked, " Who's Usher?"
Another asked, "Is this guy big?"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
NEWBERRY, S.C. -- Chelsea Clinton spent the day before the first-in-the-South primary stumping for her mother at colleges across northwestern South Carolina, where she took questions from students and voters from nearby communities.
"I am here to take your questions. I do want to make my mom and her campaign more accessible to you as you think about who to vote for tomorrow," she told the audience filling the cafeteria at Newberry College.
The notoriously media-shy Chelsea has been campaigning more extensively for her mother since the Iowa caucuses, in which rival Barack Obama won large part of the youth vote.
In introducing Chelsea, Emily Hawkins, the director of youth outreach for the campaign, told the crowd of about 150 the senator had been outspoken on issues that matter to young people and said that she would be spending part of today talking about a student borrower's bill of rights.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Christina Jamison and Domenico Montanaro
COLUMBIA, S.C. -- At her first event of a jam-packed day, Clinton emphasized the need to upgrade colleges and make them more affordable for students.
"We do not have any time to waste in increasing the investment in colleges and universities and increasing the investment in our young people so they're able to afford to go on with their education," she told the more than 600 people who packed in to the chapel at Benedict College, a historically black college.
"I also want to do more to help the Historically Black Colleges and universities. So many leaders have come thru these doors... But our help has not kept up with the need. I want to double the amount of money that goes to our Historically Black Colleges."
Though not mentioned in her speech, the campaign released the senator's plan for a "Student Borrower's Bill of Rights," including "the right to timely, accurate and transparent information, affordable loan payments, and the right not to be exploited."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
GREENVILLE, S.C. -- In the push a day before the last primary leading into Super Tuesday Edwards presented his case in Greenville, less than 40 miles east of his hometown.
“I’m the underdog,” he told the crowd eating breakfast at Country Ham House. “I know it. I understand it. You know, I’m running against two candidates, each of whom have over $100 million raised, each of whom get massive glitzy publicity from the media, and my job is to be heard because when I’m heard, people respond. And that’s where you come in. Because they may have all the money and they may have all the media, but I got you.”
Edwards portrayed himself as the “grown-up” candidate in the race, someone who’s concerned not about personal attacks but about issues affecting the lives of South Carolinians.
“This may be the way they do politics in New York," he said. "It may be the way they do politics in Chicago. But South Carolina is better than that, and you deserve better than that."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
BOCA RATON, FL -- Perhaps all of them saw how both Clinton and Obama killed each other in that CNN debate earlier this week and were afraid of turning off voters. Or maybe it was because it was being carried by many of NBC's local Florida affiliates, meaning that the candidates were meeting many voters for the first time. No matter the reason, last night’s debate here was the tamest GOP affair in weeks. This, despite the fact that half of this field could be out of contention after next Tuesday. Overall, the tame debate was good news for both Romney and McCain -- the two front-runners in Florida. Indeed, a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Romney leading McCain in the Sunshine State, 30%-26%, followed by Rudy (who has been campaigning here for the last few weeks) at 18% and Huckabee at 13%.
Video: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on why Thursday's MSNBC Republican debate was so civil and who it helped the most.
***
Romney’s good first impresssion: Both Romney and McCain got to sound and look presidential. Romney, in fact, may have had his best debate performance in a long time because he wasn't attacked. In every other recent debate, Romney has struggled when under attack. But he wasn't really hit hard last night, and that allowed Romney to control his image more so than in previous debates. Still, he didn’t look that strong answering the question about how much of his own money he will spend on his campaign, and Huckabee landed a body blow when he suggested that Romney’s five sons would have a whole lot more inheritance money if dad weren’t spending so much on his campaign.
*** McCain’s national message vs. Rudy’s local one: McCain, meanwhile, also got to look like a front-runner, but he tailored his message nationally, not so much locally. And while we sometimes got to see that McCain humor (when he talked about his mother, Sly Stallone, and his temper), he also seemed a bit angry in other spots. As for the man with the most pressure on him -- Giuliani -- he certainly made an attempt to appeal directly to Floridians. He did a good job showing them he's learned their issues, but did he look like a winner? He even admitted himself he was an underdog. Huckabee had some great lines, but he didn't seem to be a front-runner like in more recent debates. And then there's Paul… Unlike other gadflys, he doesn't raise a stink when he doesn't get the same treatment as the front-runners do; he just makes his points well. Overall, it was a very good night for Romney and McCain, because the front-runners didn't get attacked and they got to be presidential.
*** Let’s talk about race: Bill Clinton might say that the Clinton-Obama contest has nothing to do with race -- or, as he said Wednesday, that the race issue is coming from the Obama folks or that it’s something the media is stirring up -- but the Bob Johnson and Charlie Rangel comments on Obama’s teenage drug use (which they later apologized for), as well as the intense debate over Clinton’s remarks on MLK and LBJ have had an effect, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. In December, Clinton held a 40%-23% percent lead over Obama among whites, as well as support from a majority of African Americans. But now, Clinton's lead among whites has jumped, 53%-24%, while Obama now has a 63%-23% lead over Clinton among African Americans. "We have had a total shift in the African-American community," NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) says. That’s also true in South Carolina, where a new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon shows that Obama’s support among whites has declined 10 points in just one week. Ask yourself this question: After South Carolina -- where Obama has a 38%-30% lead over Clinton, per that MSNBC poll -- which candidate benefits the most from that racial split?
*** Mr. Bill: Speaking of Bill, once again he’s everywhere in the press. In fact, we see more clips of him of than we see of Hillary’s economic speech yesterday. And, of course, he and his wife played a starring role at last night’s GOP debate.
*** So long, Dennis: Kucinich holds a press conference in Cleveland at noon to announce the end of his presidential bid. One reason why he quit the trail? He's got a serious challenge for his House seat... Bob Dornan lost re-election in '96, the same year he ran for president. Local constituents don't always like being taken for granted. Will Kucinich meet Dornan's fate?
*** On the trail: Elsewhere… Clinton, in South Carolina, stumps in Columbia, Rock Hill, and Myrtle Beach before meeting up with her husband for a rally in Charleston; Edwards, also in the Palmetto State hits Greenville, Columbia, Orangeburg, and Charleston; Giuliani remains in Florida, campaigning in Miami and Sarasota; Huckabee makes five stops in the Sunshine State; McCain holds four events across Florida; Obama spends his final day of campaigning in South Carolina with stops in Charleston, Columbia, Clemson, and Florence before attending an evening rally with his wife in Columbia; and Romney has four events in Florida.
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 1 day
Countdown to Florida: 4 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 284 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 361 days
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The Miami Herald: “With just five days to go before Florida's do-or-die Republican primary, Thursday's nationally televised debate could have been a bloodbath. Instead, it was more like a Rotary Club forum, with rivals doling out compliments and only the occasional polite disagreement. When the candidates posed questions to their rivals, they tossed Nerf balls.”
Video: Watch the entire MSNBC Republican debate.
“Even the legendarily combative Rudy Giuliani, who has slipped to third place in Florida polls,
declined to tear down John McCain or Mitt Romney, the duo wrestling for first place. The docile Republican forum at Florida Atlantic University stood in stark contrast to the most recent Democratic debate, in which Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama traded barbs.”
The New York Times: "It was not exactly the kind of knock-down, drag-out fight that has characterized past Republican debates. Most of the candidates agreed that the economic stimulus plan being considered in Washington was a good first step but also said it should include permanent tax cuts."
The Washington Post: "The mostly civil forum came at a critical moment in the muddled GOP competition, and the five remaining candidates appeared eager to avoid some of the sharper differences that have sparked tough exchanges. Instead, they played it safe and were often cordial to one another five days before Florida's primary election, which could end one or more candidacies."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post writes about the decision by both Clinton and Obama to pull their negative radio ads. More proof that just when this campaign looks like it's going to go down the normal negative road, the campaigns balk.
“The race between U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, who would be her party’s first female nominee, and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who would be his party’s first black nominee, has divided women along generational and racial lines,” the
Columbia State writes. “It has split households and forced women to ponder racial and gender allegiances.”
The
L.A. Times also looks at how the campaign has become racially polarizing.
The Columbia State notes “Edwards rises in SC polls.
