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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



When poll #s don't tell whole story

Posted: Friday, July 31, 2009 3:03 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Mark Murray
In our First Thoughts section, we've described the political focus group that one of us attended. Here's a more complete story on MSNBC.com on the observations from it.

Video: Atlantic Media’s Ron Brownstein talks about the public’s support of health care reform and President Barack Obama according to the latest NBC News/WSJ poll.

TOWSON, Md. - The past wave of public polling, including Wednesday’s NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, hasn’t been terrific news for the Obama White House.

The president’s job-approval numbers have declined, although they remain above 50 percent. His standing on health care has dropped. And Republicans now find themselves, at least in the NBC/Journal survey, with an advantage over Democrats in which party would do a better job reducing the deficit — the first time the GOP has led on this question in 12 years.

But according to Peter D. Hart, the pollster who conducts the NBC/Journal survey with Republican Bill McInturff, poll numbers don't always tell the entire story.

That’s why Hart held a focus group Wednesday in the Baltimore area with 12 self-described independents to evaluate the first six months of Obama's presidency.

Seven of these independents voted for Obama in last November’s presidential contest, four voted for Republican John McCain and one voted for Ralph Nader. All the participants were white men and women, except for one African-American man.

While a few of them expressed negative opinions about Obama — saying they were “worried” or “afraid” — those who voted for him remained mostly supportive. And even half of the McCain voters said they were pulling for the president.

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This is a superficial crisis for the president, not an ideological panic by voters.

http://www.political-buzz.com
those who voted for him remained mostly supportive. And even half of the McCain voters said they were pulling for the president.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Okay righties...

SPIN THAT!  

Guess those McCain voters really do put their Country First!  

Unlike the rabid - trash talking - BS slinging - cowardly - moniker stealing Republicant's that LURK around here all day!
CQ showed a nice poll number for trusting the president on health care-NYT/CBS.
Listen here, Mark. We all know you lean way left, but polls DO tell the story ... as long as the polls are accurate and not being made up ... and you DO know what I'm talking about.

Obie is in the tank ... at least for now. Nothing he does or says is working. He's his own worst enemy, and America's too.

Might blog ya next week. And what happened to the Chihuahua? Too entertaining for ya? Get him back here. And Palomino too.
Our President has been in office approximately 6 months. We are a year and a half from mid-terms, three years plus before the next general.

Personally, this focus group has about as much significance as a grain of sand on the beach.

A lot will happen in the next 3 years. Let's just sit back and watch how our Presidents handles each crisis.

BTW, I do enjoy posting on this website.
Ron  
TWELVE people.  Wow.  Now that's something!
Thanks Mark, we can always count on you to give us the "real" facts.

We are out here in different States in many walks of life. We see more and in reality, we know more. President Obama is doing an excellent job and the majority of Americans know that. Those that are screaming all of the garbage that they've put out before the garbage tuck ran should have jumped on the pile themselves.

We live in the real world and the people I see everyday are pulling for the President and this Nation. They are a mixed race of people that are concerned about this country they love just as I am.


To: Auggy Doggy

I'm still in tears little doggy and you are the other definition of a Babbitt! The Caribbean definition.

That one means a dirty rotten S.O.B. that’s concerned about yourself and the hell with others and will do anything for a dollar and say anything for gain.

I've got to excuse myself after I post this one! I am in tears and peeling with laughter!
And just what do the polls say about all those nonexistent jobs that Obama promised???
"Cash for clunkers" is a success!!!

Of course it is, its a tax break (check) for the purchase of a new vehicle.  

Why are democrats suprised that a republican tax credit (cash 4 clunkers) check is stimulating the economy.  Tax rebates, aka credits, always stimulate the economy.

Whats really suprising is that the money given to ACORN and the other Obama crooks doesn't stimulate anything.  The only part of the "stimulus" that has helped the economy is a "tax credit" for the rich.

How many unemployed minorities are getting this government check?

Answer - ZERO

The only people that are getting this money are the people with jobs and good credit.  Obama calls these people - RICH.

"Cash for Clunkers" = a conservitive idea to a recession

"Cash for ACORN and Pelosi's Husband" = a democrat kickback

Its a shame that ALL of the 800 Billion in Stimulus wasn't spent on similar projects!  The recession would have been over in DAYS!!!

How about "Cash for ineffecient Water Heaters"
How about "Cash for ineffecient AC's"
How about "Cash for ineffecient ..."

That would really stimulate the economy!!!!
But, It wouldn't give Obama's Buddies the Kickback he promised!
just wish Sarah Palin would fade away quietly.  We have a cult of ignorance in this country that will continue to do just fine without this latest version from Alaska.  If elected (God forbid), she could do even more harm than Bush.  What a thought!
H Cavanaugh, Providence, RI (Sent Friday, July 31, 2009 3:07 PM)

---------------------------------------
Sorry, but Obama already holds the title for doing more harm than Bush.
It's so funny the way the leftist extremists blame evil Republicans for spreading misinformation that leads to polling results that show Obama's numbers dropping.  These dimwits are genetically incapable of even considering the notion that the American people have minds of their own and are formulating negative impressions of our superhero president all by themselves.

But that's the way the left goes about its business.  They think they're so smart and anyone who doesn't agree with their view of the world is a nincompoop. Their sanctimonious hubris is truly stunning to observe, anyone can see it on this board every day.

Fortunately for America, the political center of gravity of this great nation lies closer to the middle than the leftist fringe.  Patriots rejoice in the rejection of the misguided attempts to force this country to the left.  And all the lefties can do is commiserate among themselves and pretend they still have a chance of imposing things like Obamacare  and cap and tax on the rest of us.
McCain WAS NOT BORN IN AMERICA !!!

notice how the 'Birther' movement didn't start until AFTER THE ELECTION ??

McCain was BORN IN PANAMA !!


Look how creative the right is:

Birthers
Tea Baggers
Militias
Neo Cons
Anti Abortion movement
Anti Immigrant 'Patriots'
Posse Comitatas
KKK
Christian Identity
the 'C Street' Family
the Republican Party !!

(I didn't forget you, Cicero)
Libertarianism

Yeah, all those cut and pastes from wikipedia.
Give Me Misleading the Sheeple for $300, Alex
-----------------

Not quite m'dear...reading is fundamental, try it sometime.

*********************************

The WORD WAS BABBITT, not babbit. The "Slang" version is coarse...really coarse! I am still in tears!!!
I hope the "teachable moment" has taught the administration not to go off topic when selling an important piece of legislation.  If there was half the chatter about healthcare as there has been about racial divides following last week's prime time TV appearance the "Obama for America" people wouldn't have found it necessary to email requests for donations to get the word out.  Seems to me that they blew a golden opportunity and gave the opposition an opening to steal the spotlight.
An interesting story from Washington Monthly
They used to call 'fack grass roots, Astroturf'
PR flacks would try to influence legislation this way

Here's a twist, Forgeries

From Washington Monthly:

'...THEY'RE NOT ABOVE CHEATING.... Oh my.

As U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello was considering how to vote on an important piece of climate change legislation in June, the freshman congressman's office received at least six letters from two Charlottesville-based minority organizations voicing opposition to the measure.

The letters, as it turns out, were forgeries.

"They stole our name. They stole our logo. They created a position title and made up the name of someone to fill it. They forged a letter and sent it to our congressman without our authorization," said Tim Freilich, who sits on the executive committee of Creciendo Juntos, a nonprofit network that tackles issues related to Charlottesville's Hispanic community. "It's this type of activity that undermines Americans' faith in democracy."

The faked letter from Creciendo Juntos was signed by "Marisse K. Acevado, Asst Member Coordinator," an identity and position at Creciendo Juntos that do not exist.



The mailing apparently came from a staffer at Bonner & Associates, a D.C. lobbying firm working in opposition to the American Clean Energy and Security (ACES) Act.

But wait, there's more. After being notified of the scheme, Perriello staffers went through other correspondence the Virginia Democrat received on ACES. They found five more forged letters, purportedly from the local branch of the NAACP.

M. Rick Turner, president of the local NAACP branch, said he checked his organization's roster and found none of the five people who signed their name to the five faked letters.

"I am very appalled as the president that our organization has been misrepresented in this way by this bogus ... letter," Turner said. "I hope that whoever's behind this will be brought to justice."



There are some key, unresolved issues here. Someone at Bonner & Associates was responsible for the fake "Acevado" letter, but we don't know who the firm was working for when the letter was sent, and the firm apparently isn't talking to the media about the incident. The fake NAACP letters were sent by fax from the D.C.-area headquarters of Professional Risk Management Services Inc, but we don't know its clients, either, and the company hasn't taken responsibility for the fraudulent correspondence. We also don't know what other lawmakers may have been sent bogus letters.

Tim Fernholz added a good point: "Members of Congress are already very skeptical of constituent communications in this day of Internet-organized communications blitzes; the possibility that they may take these messages even less seriously due to fraud is a very disheartening one."

Postscript: Perriello, by the way, did the right thing and voted for ACES...'

Msierra,

You forgot:

Minutemen
Skinheads
Nazis
Global warming deniers
Anti-environmentalists
Tim McVeigh
Eric Rudolph
And those guys that murdered the Doctor and the Holocaust Museum guard.


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