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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



2009/2010

Posted: Wednesday, October 07, 2009 9:17 AM by firstread
Filed Under: , , , ,


The Wall Street Journal looks at the correlation between the unemployment rate and Election Day. "Republicans are already harnessing voter unease over deficit spending and proposed changes to the health-care system. But they see the economy as the Democrats' main vulnerability… Officials at the National Republican Campaign Committee said they planned to use the weak employment numbers to hammer at 54 Democratic House members that Republicans deem the most vulnerable in 2010. Republicans are particularly targeting the 49 House lawmakers in districts carried last November by Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee."

A new Gallup poll has the generic Congressional ballot essentially tied. The bigger problem for Democrats: Republicans are leading among indie voters.

BTW, just 36% of DEMOCRATS!?!?!? approve of the job Congress is doing. A stunning 18-point collapse since last month.

VIRGINIA: It’s Oct. 7, just under a month until Election Day and Creigh Deeds is already looking for excuses? So does this mean he does NOT want Pres. Obama to campaign for him?

The Wall Street Journal suggests that the White House is taking itself out of public eye in regard to the Virginia gubernatorial race, "seeking to conserve its political capital and avoid close association with a candidate who might lose," although it still supports Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds. Calling Virginia a "testing ground for Democrats," The Wall Street Journal describes the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia "an early indicator of Democrats' likely fortunes" in 2010.

In a round of "Battleground Virginia" interviews, the Virginia gubernatorial nominees touched on issues from taxes to abortion, and Republican candidate Bob McDonnell stressed that his campaign has been running on "kitchen-table issues such as jobs and roads." Democrat Creigh Deeds suggested that the national politics of his party have "made it very tough" for his campaign, as he still trails his Republican opponent in the polls. "We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, D.C.," Deeds said.

Governor Tim Kaine (D), chairman of the Democratic National Committee, called on Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds to continue to close the gap on his Republican challenger Bob McDonnell, saying "now it is up to Creigh in the late innings to make the simple sell for himself. ... And that's what will take this race to a winning race," The Richmond Times-Dispatch reports.

NEW JERSEY: New Jersey campaign donors have found a way to sidestep campaign finance laws in the state, as the New Jersey Star-Ledger reports that by looking at Virginia's campaign finance database, ironically you can find hundreds of thousands of dollars that have been funneled to support the New Jersey gubernatorial candidates--Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie. The Star-Ledger writes, "Some of that money came from companies barred from making big money donations in New Jersey. Other contributions came from those already maxed out in what they may give to candidates."

DELAWARE: Castle is in. Yesterday, Rep. Mike Castle announced that he will run for Vice President Joe Biden's Senate seat. "Castle’s decision gives Republicans a major recruiting win and a strong possibility of picking up a Democratic-held Senate seat for the first time since 2004," writes the Hill. "But Castle’s entry will not guarantee the seat goes to Republicans. Castle will most likely face a tough challenge from Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, the vice president’s son, who has been rumored to be contemplating a bid. He has been serving in Iraq over the past year… No reliable polls have been taken recently, but strategists in both parties acknowledge that a Castle-Biden showdown would instantly become one of the most competitive races in the country."

IOWA GOVERNOR: Republicans have scored a BIG recruiting coup in the all-important swing state of Iowa as former Gov. Terry Branstad will formally open a cmte to challenge Dem Gov. Chet Culver.

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Comments

It's Bush's fault! It's Bush's fault! It's Bush's fault!

It is.

It's over for the Democrats in Virginia. Common sense has returned to that state. NJ though is not so clear. Corrupt unions are corrupt unions, and they'd vote for Charlie Manson if he was the Democrat running for office.
FR:"BTW, just 36% of DEMOCRATS!?!?!? approve of the job Congress is doing. A stunning 18-point collapse since last month. "

Why is this stunning? Even democrats know that congress sucks.
I find it hard to believe that independents would suddenly flock back to the GOP side knowing the GOP side caused a near catastrophe.  Indies always float back and forth.  The democrats suffered because of the loud noise coming from the GOP in August; they are recovering now.  Will they lose House seats, yes, and maybe a couple senate seats but Bush/Cheney will still haunt the GOP in 2010 because dems will remind people about what the GOP did.

Terry Branstad, I would not vote for him; under his leadership, the education system was hammered and the formerly high level of quality dropped along with teacher pay.  Thanks but no thanks and not just because he is a republican; he's like Chuck Grassley with old ideas.  He may form a committee but I'm not sure he will give up his cushy university job for politics again.

Speaking of Grassley, he must not be as confident about winning in 2010 because last night there was his ad claiming how much he is trying to protect seniors!  Oh sure he is--as long as the senior is head of an insurance company.  More anti-Grassley letters to the editors, too.  Last night's suggested he go back to his farm since he always claims to be a full time farmer.
But they see the economy as the Democrats' main vulnerability…

Wow wasn't it just last year that the GOP had the "Problem with the economy"
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!


US Dept Of Labor September 25, 2009
In August, employers took 2,690 mass layoff actions involving 259,307 workers. Mass layoff events increased by 533 and associated initial claims by 52,516 from July. Over the year, events increased by 803 and initial claims by 70,356. Year-to-date events and initial claims reached new program highs.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!


US Dept Of Labor  October 01, 2009
For the eighth consecutive month, all of the nation's 372 metropolitan areas had over-the-year unemployment rate increases.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!


10/1 AP News- The Labor Department said Thursday that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to a seasonally adjusted 551,000 from 534,000 in the previous week.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!


10/1 The Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity in September slipped to 52.6 from 52.9 in August, well below analysts' expectations of 54.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!


10/1 The owners of Saturn dealerships across the country joined the list of the auto industry's stunned and jilted Wednesday when they learned that efforts to save the car brand had failed. General Motors now plans to shut them all down, and Saturn will disappear.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!


10/4/09 WASHINGTON (AP) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan predicts that the unemployment rate will push past 10 percent and stay at that level for a while.

"Pretty awful" is how Greenspan describes Friday's report that the unemployment rate has risen to 9.8 percent.

He says the growing number of Americans who have been out of work six months or longer is of particular concern because jobless workers lose skills over such a long period.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!

10/2/09 WASHINGTON (AP) — New orders to U.S. factories fell in August by the largest amount in five months, as American manufacturers struggle to emerge from the recession.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!

10/2/09 In a separate report, the Labor Department said unemployment rose to a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September as employers cut a net total of 263,000 jobs, far more than had been expected.

The Commerce Department said Friday that demand for manufactured goods dropped 0.8 percent, much worse than the 0.7 percent gain that economists had expected. The August decline reflected plunging demand for commercial aircraft, a category that surged in July.

Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Yo Yo BHO! How many more jobs have to go!
Democrat Creigh Deeds suggested that the national politics of his party have "made it very tough" for his campaign


LOL
too funny. So Obama has made it harder for him to win.
The GOP HAS SOME NERVE TRYING TO HARNESS VOTER'S UNEASE considering they sat back and rubber stamped everything the Shrub and rightwing thinktanks told them to do like: Tax cuts for the wlthy, billions of tax money to corrupt crony friends who were clueless working in Iraq for the CPA, Medicare part D boondoggle, Katrina, worldwide financial meltdown in September 08 and the unemployment rate was over 7% and rising before Obama took office. You apologists and the obstructionists party can try to sabotage all you want but in the long run it's pretty pathetic that the bottom line comes down to partisanship and petty like highschool football rivalry. Its the Republic's survival that will determine whether or not we can realistically compete as the sole SUPER POWER JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE MORE BOMBS THAN ANYONE ELSE.  
To all you cowards in this blog who insist on using monikers instead of your real names! I would have understood during THE IDIOT SHRUB/DARTH VADOR SECRET WIRETAPS;HOWEVER; WE HAVE AN INTELLIGENT FORMER LAW PROFESSOR WHEREBY FREEDOM OF SPEECH IS RESPECTED UNLIKE THOSE IN GOVERNMENT DURING THOSE DARK 8 YRS WHEREBY POLITICAL AFFILIATION DETERMINED IF YOU WERE FIRED AND/OR AS LONG AS YOU WERE LOYAL BUSHIES.
Linda,

Deeds was always the underdog because the party who holds the white house has been losing the Governor race in Virginia since 1977 I believe. What's going on in Washington hasn't helped him. If he can get the federal Democrats to vote in a state election, he still has a shot. I'm predicting a 4-5 point win for McDonnell.


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