November 2009 - Posts
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Mary Landrieu got for her home state just before voting in favor of cloture last night, thereby putting the Senate health bill on the floor for conisderation.
Republicans have derisively called this Harry Reid 's Louisiana Purchase.
We talked about it this morning on MSNBC.
A clip is below. HERE'S THE FULL DISCUSSION .
From msnbc.com’s Carrie Dann Barack Obama to victory in the first major test of the 2008 Democratic primary, the president’s approval rating in the first caucus state has fallen below 50 percent. A new Des Moines Register poll conducted by the revered Selzer and Co. shows Obama’s positive rating at just 49 percent, a full 19 points below his approval in the state at the time of his inauguration.
(Selzer, you might remember, was the same pollster that showed Obama leading by eight points before the primary against Hillary Clinton and John Edwards .
The poll was released Saturday, just as Vice President Joe Biden was arriving in Des Moines to speak as the featured guest at the Iowa Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Ouch.
Obama’s fiery speech at the same venue in 2007 was widely credited as a key moment that vaulted the Illinois senator over rival Hillary Clinton in the Iowa contest.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
“We can see the finish line, but we’re not there yet,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said.
The contentious public option is one thing that may likely change, Reid acknowledged. He said that Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu , one of the final three Democratic holdouts before tonight’s vote, is working with Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Tom Carper (D-DE) to come up with an “alternative” public option, one that would be “acceptable” to all Democrats."
“It’s going to be a long stretch,” Reid said, but he declared, “We have the momentum."
He said that not all 60 Democrats agree on the bill as it is now, “but they agree on the vast majority.” Reid said they agreed on more than 90 percent of the bill.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro After hours of debating whether to allow debate to begin on a health reform bill, the Senate voted in favor of letting that happen tonight along strictly partisan lines, 60-39.
The outcome had become all but assured earlier today when Sen. Blanche Lincoln , a moderate Democrat from Arkansas, the last Democratic holdout, said she would vote with her caucus.
It is important to realize that this is just the beginning, the opening kickoff if you will. Lincoln, Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) have all said they would not vote for a bill that in the end that includes a public option. And more importantly Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has said he would join a Republican filibuster on the back end if a public option is included.
The other wild card: Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME). Snowe, who voted against cloture tonight, is against the "opt out" version of the public option. But, of course, she is in favor of her "Trigger" option.
CONTINUED >>
Check out this interview with Lou Dobbs on Telemundo, describing himself as one of Latinos "greatest friends." By the way, he sure sounds like he's running for something. But what? And where?
Here's the full video . Here's a clip:
THE WEEK AHEAD: Congress is back for another Saturday night health care vote, Obama's first state dinner, Palin's tour continues, plus a special peek inside the First Read Man Cave with a special goateed guest. Happy Thanksgiving.
See how many sports teams/memorabilia items you can spot! Win fun prizes (not!)
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro President Obama has now dropped, for the first time, below 50% approval in the Gallup poll . It's the second poll this week to show that result.
This puts Obama on par with Ronald Reagan , who also fell below 50% 10 months into the job -- and better than Bill Clinton , who fell below in his fourth month. Reagan was dealing with similar economic numbers.
For context, here's what we wrote about this when the possibility was first floated that Obama could fall below 50% back on Sept. 2nd:
*** They’ve done studies, you know -- 50% of the time, it works every time: As of yesterday, President Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup daily tracking poll was 52%, which is close to the 51% in our NBC poll from last month. As Gallup has noted, if Obama falls below 50% in his eighth month on the job, it will be the third-fastest drop below that mark for a new president since World War II. Gerald Ford fell below 50% in his third month, Bill Clinton in his fourth month, Ronald Reagan in his 10th month, Jimmy Carter in his 13th month, Richard Nixon in his 25th month, LBJ in his 29th month, Bush 41 in his 36th month, Bush 43 in his 37th month, and Eisenhower in his 63rd month. Note: Kennedy never fell below 50% before he was assassinated, and George W. Bush was approaching that mark right before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. A few things to remember about all the analysis folks will see on polls in the coming days: There are more BAD polls now than ever before; it confuses the issue and lets some folks cherry-pick what they want. The VERY erratic robo-polling firms have added to the confusion like never before.
*** Obama has him where he wants them? This data above tell us a few things. One, Obama has had a rapid drop and that doesn’t help his prospects for things like health-care reform. Two, the most recent presidents -- Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43 (right before 9/11) -- have experienced similar drops, suggesting an increased political polarization over the past 20 or so years. Three, taking George W. Bush out of the equation due to 9/11, every president who has ended up winning re-election since 1980 saw his approval rating drop below 50% in his first year. Moral of the story: If your goal is to get re-elected, it’s better to have your political struggles early (Clinton, Reagan) rather than later (Bush 41). Kind of like a college football season, right? Better to lose early, than late. So be careful what you read into what Obama’s approval rating right now means for his presidency. There’s really no correlation between how quickly a president’s poll numbers drop and the overall success of his presidency.
From NBC's Ken Strickland Sen. Ben Nelson 's (D-NE) statement yesterday explaining what a vote for cloture would mean, he has now released a statement saying that he will vote with Democrats.
His full written statement after the jump:
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From NBC's Ken Strickland Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has already told Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) how she'll vote tomorrow on issue of whether to bring the healthcare bill to the floor, Lincoln's office was quick respond.
"No other Senator speaks for Senator Lincoln," Lincoln's spokeswoman told NBC in an email. "She is still reviewing the bill."
Earlier in the day, the Senate's No. 2 Democrat Dick Durbin told several reporters that Lincoln had already made her voting intentions known to Reid.
"She's told Sen. Reid," Durbin said without revealing the substance of the conversation.
A few hours later, Durbin too joined in with clarifying remarks. In a written statement, he said, "In a conversation with reporters earlier today, some of my remarks regarding Sen. Lincoln were unclear and have been incorrectly interpreted.
"Let me be clear: Senator Lincoln has had a number of conversations with Sen. Reid about the health care reform legislation. She has asked important questions and there has been a positive and healthy give and take. But Sen. Lincoln has not yet signaled her intention as to how she will vote on tomorrow's cloture motion. I have worked with Sen. Lincoln for years and know that she will reach a decision that is best for her constituents, her state and the nation."
From NBC's Ken Strickland Dick Durbin (D-IL) pre-emptively gave the his answer to the question everyone's been asking over the past few weeks: does Majority Leader Harry Reid have the 60 votes needed to bring the healthcare bill to the floor.
"We're not assuming a thing," Durbin said, "we're working hard to bring all Democrats together for the 60 votes necessary to proceed to this historic debate."
But it's possible Durbin and Reid are playing coy and already know they how the vote will go down Saturday night.
In a gaggle with reporters following the news conference (off-camera), Durbin was asked if he knew how Blanche Lincoln will vote on Saturday. Lincoln has been by far the most tight-lipped of the three Democratic holdouts about how she might vote.
"She's told Senator Reid," Durbin said, but wouldn't answer the obvious follow-up question. "You'll have to ask Senator Reid."
It begs the questions if fellow centrist Democrats Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu have also informed Reid.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg More Saturday Night Fever: The Senate is expected to take its vote to proceed on Senate Majority Leader Reid’s bill on Saturday. Democrats will need 60 votes -- i.e., their entire caucus -- to clear this initial procedural hurdle. Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, the vote is expected to take place around 8:00 pm ET. At this point, Strick adds, it doesn’t look like there will be any Senate work on Sunday, nor will there be any effort to make the Senate clerk read every page of the bill out loud, at least this week. If it plays out this way, the Senate would be off all of the next week for Thanksgiving recess and return on Nov. 30. Realistically, is more being made out of this drama than should be? Does it make political sense for any Democrat to prevent even debate on this bill even for Democrats who may eventually vote against it? To not allow debate would be a slap in the face of the Dem base and no Dem officeholder would do that, would they? We know that everything in DC and health care has to have the feel of some drama, but this feels like much ado about nothing. If Reid and the Obama White House can't even get the bill on to the floor, then there are much BIGGER problems in the Dem party than unity on health care. But if they do pass it, it is historic.
*** Land of Lincoln: That said, for the vote tomorrow, we’ve noted the moderates to watch: Ben Nelson (NE), Mary Landrieu (LA), and Blanche Lincoln (AR). But Lincoln is perhaps the most intriguing. Nelson and Landrieu have seemed to indicate their support at least for a cloture vote since their meeting with Reid two days ago. Remember, neither of them is up for re-election next year. But Lincoln is, and it’s been radio silence from her on her cloture vote. She’s really in a pressure cooker. Liberals are pushing for a primary challenge if she doesn’t support health care (something Republicans have to be salivating over) and the looks of a potentially competitive GENERAL election next year. Still, it would be a shock to see Lincoln kill this since she actually does have to worry about a primary challenge -- and she would have single-handedly have killed the prospects NOW for the health bill. By the way, Lincoln knows a little something about Dem primary challenges, she first got into Congress by challenging an incumbent member of her OWN party.
*** Welcome back, Mr. President: If President Obama turned on the nightly news at the White House after returning from his eight-day trip through Asia, he saw plenty of unwelcome news yesterday. Members of Congress were asking for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to resign from his job; students in California were protesting huge hikes in their tuition costs; in the morning, the nation’s aviation system nearly grinded to a halt after a router glitch; and women were confused about new mammogram guidelines -- the news of which Republicans seized on to throw a wrench into health-care reform. In short, it wasn’t a good day -- and hasn’t been really that good of a week -- for the White House. As for Geithner, it looks like he's becoming the whipping boy for frustrated members of Congress on the economy. Is this fair? Remember, this happened to John Snow, and then we got Hank Paulson.
*** Iran is key to watch: Regarding Obama’s trip to Asia, it looks like the C.W. is that he didn't get big things done. And he didn't. But the reality is that we won't know how successful this trip is for a little while. Near-term, it's about the push for sanctions against Iran. In fact, if the Obama administration gets Russia on board for tougher sanctions, and if China -- at a minimum -- decides to simply abstain and allow the U.S. to go forward with a tougher stance against Iran, then the C.W. on this trip and on the president's approach to foreign policy will shift back in his favor. While some want to pile on the president over Iran and say, "I told you so" regarding Iran walking away from the negotiating table, it's actually an opportunity for the president to show a stiff spine on a major national security issue. And if Russia does come aboard for truly tough sanctions, it would be an example of Obama's foreign policy doctrine of engagement and respect with quasi allies/rivals working. That's not bad domestic politics either.
*** What we learned at the RGA…: What did we learn at the Republican Governors Association meeting here that concluded last night? That Republicans feel VERY good about the overall political environment and their prospects for next year's midterm elections. That no one here really wanted to talk about Sarah Palin, her new book, or her political prospects. That RGA Chair Haley Barbour is personally backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the gubernatorial primary and wants Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to stay in the Senate. And that embattled Mark Sanford could attend the meeting and (almost!) not be spotted by the political press corps.
*** … And what we didn’t: What did we NOT learn? If the current political winds will continue to stay at the GOP's back. If Palinism will end up trumping McDonnellism, or vice versa. If anyone in attendance -- Pawlenty, Jindal, Barbour, someone else? -- will end up being the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee. And if anyone else picked up on the irony of the RGA airing this "Saturday Night Live" skit to kick off its panel looking at the 2010 midterms.
*** White House pushes back against stimulus criticism: Following up on our note yesterday about the Obama White House losing the P.R. war over the stimulus, an administration official said he’s standing by the estimated number of "jobs created or saved" by the stimulus act, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. "The data debate has been frustrating, but it's a side show," said Ed Deserve, adviser to the president for Recovery Act Implementation, who took questions from reporters on a conference call. Deserve was following up on a hearing held yesterday on the House side, where the GAO reported on errors that were made in the administration's calculation that led to the claim that 640,000 jobs created as of Oct. 30 because of the stimulus. Deserve said the estimate is in line with those of outside economists, and repeated the claim that when both "direct, indirect, and induced" jobs were included, the number was 1 to 1.5 million jobs. Deserve’s comments came after Earl Devaney, the government watchdog overseeing the stimulus, said he couldn’t vouch for the administration’s 640,000 figure.
*** A 'profile' in irony? Sarah Palin showed she's not afraid of wading into racial politics. In a two-day stretch this week, she 1) criticized John McCain for not going after Obama harder on Jeremiah Wright and 2) advocated for profiling. "I say, profile away," Palin told the Weekly Standard, adding, "Such political correctness could be our downfall." Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen, hardly liberals, see it differently. Gates yesterday: “[I]n a nation as diverse as the United States the last thing we need to do is start pointing fingers at each other, particularly when there's no basis in fact for it." This is usually tricky terrain for politicians. But Palin has decided to bull through the issue. Yet advocacy for profiling -- which calls for drawing on broad stereotypes of whole groups of people -- is somewhat ironic coming from Palin. Consider her annoyance with her perception that Katie Couric was stereotyping her for asking her about which newspapers she reads. She told Oprah: "Are you kidding me? Are you really asking me?' To me, it was in the context of, ‘Do you read? How do you stay informed, you're way up there?' It seemed like she was discovering this nomadic tribe, a member of a tribe from some Neanderthal cave in Alaska, asking me, ‘How do you stay in touch with the real world?'" And then there's her criticism over the Newsweek cover, which plenty, including Democrats have criticized. But it seems she wants to be against political correctness unless it involves herself.
*** Also today: Vice President Joe Biden turns 67 years old. And an exhibit of the late Tim Russert's office opens at the Newseum in DC.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 18 days
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“Growing discontent over the economy and frustration with efforts to speed its recovery boiled over Thursday on Capitol Hill in a wave of criticism and outright anger directed at the Obama administration,” the Washington Post writes. “President Obama's allies in the Congressional Black Caucus, exasperated by the administration's handling of the economy, unexpectedly blocked one his top priorities, using a legislative maneuver to postpone the approval of financial reform legislation by a key House committee.”
“Two buildings away, at a session of the Joint Economic Committee, Republicans escalated their attacks on Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, including a call for his resignation.”
In addition, per the Wall Street Journal : “The House Financial Services Committee voted, 43-26, to approve a measure sponsored by Texas Republican Ron Paul, vociferously opposed by the Fed, that would direct the congressional Government Accountability Office to expand its audits of the Fed to include decisions about interest rates and lending to individual banks. The Fed says the provision threatens its ability to make monetary policy without political interference.”
"Geithner is coming under new pressure from conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats to resign," The Hill writes. "Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas) this week joined a small group of lawmakers publicly calling for Geithner to step down. Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, who is challenging Sen. Chris Dodd (D) for Senate in Connecticut, has made Geithner’s resignation a campaign issue. Geithner was forced to defend himself Thursday at a public hearing on Capitol Hill during which he was pointedly asked by Brady to resign."
CONTINUED >>
Per the Washington Post , the Congressional Budget Office said the public option “opt out” in Reid’s bill “would have relatively little impact on the current system, would charge ‘somewhat higher’ premiums than its private competitors and would draw only about 4 million subscribers. The decision to permit states to opt out of the public plan is partly to blame for the Reid proposal's lack of reach, as it would leave about a third of the people in the country without access to the program, according to the CBO's calculation. But even the national plan approved by the House this month would attract only about 6 million people, the nonpartisan group has said, primarily because it would lack the tools to keep costs and premiums down.”
The New York Times looks at the abortion issue in the Senate bill. "Under the House bill, federal money could not be used 'to pay for any abortion or to cover any part of the costs of any health plan that includes coverage of abortion,' except in case of rape or incest or if the life of a pregnant woman was in danger. Thus, a plan that received federal subsidies for low- and moderate-income people could not offer abortion coverage. Under the Senate bill, insurers would not be required or forbidden to cover abortion. But, the measure says, in every part of the country, the government would have to ensure that there is at least one plan that covers abortion and at least one that does not."
More: "The secretary of health and human services would decide whether a proposed new government insurance plan would cover abortion. In general, if insurers cover abortion, they could not use federal money to pay for the procedure. They could use only subscriber premiums and would have to keep the money separate from subsidies received from the federal government."
The New York Times covers yesterday’s congressional hearing looking at the Fort Hood shootings. “A Senate committee on Thursday opened the first public hearings into the Fort Hood shootings, with several legislators asserting that the incident in which 13 people were killed was a terrorist attack by a homegrown extremist who may have slipped past law enforcement and military authorities. Hours later at a Pentagon news conference, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced that former Army Secretary Togo West and a former chief of naval operations, Vernon Clark, would lead a broad Pentagon review of the circumstances surrounding the shootings in which 13 people were killed and 43 were injured.”
Covering the RGA meeting, Salon’s Mike Madden wonders if the GOP talk about a comeback is just, well, talk. “So what if the only thing voters like less than the Democrats in Congress might be the Republicans in Congress? Who cares if the GOP has been reduced to a rump minority in the House and Senate, left on the sidelines with not much more to do than root for Democrats to fight among themselves? In politics, what matters is momentum, and right now, Republicans -- and quite a few Democrats, especially in private -- think they have it.”
Sarah Palin reiterated her support for candidates like the Conservative Party's Doug Hoffman, who ran for a special election in New York's 23rd congressional district. She added, however, that she believes advocates of a breakaway third party are "naive."
"Ideally, sure, a third party or an independent party would be able to soar and thrive and put candidates forth and have them elected, but I don't think America is ready for that," Palin said earlier this week on conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh's show. Palin's media blitz has taken her to, among other outlets, Limbaugh's show and Christian Broadcasting Network White House Correspondent David Brody's webcast.
The Alaskan ex-governor praised the efforts of Hoffman, saying his campaign "proved that an American without that resume, that machine backing, can truly make a difference in an election like this." She also gave her advice for Republican successes in 2010 and beyond: "It's all about jobs, it's all about Americans who are hurting right now and what those solutions are that are so obvious," she said. She blamed the Obama administration for not discussing such "common sense solutions," but also had criticism for her own party: "On the Republican side, Republicans need to be bolder about it. Independents need to be bolder about it."
CONTINUED >>
COLORADO: Denver Post columnist Mike Rosen outlined a GOP policy platform drafted by several Republican gubernatorial candidates yesterday, calling it the “Contract for Colorado:” “The agenda [is] modeled on the winning reform recipes of Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell in their New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races… and reassure[s] the Republican base, while specific, practical, and inclusive enough to attract swing-voting independents in the state.” Rosen also writes that the plan intended to give presumptive GOP nominee Scott McInnis “something concrete to run on rather than merely running against [incumbent governor Bill] Ritter.”
“McInnis said he hopes the agenda -- perhaps the first time the GOP has crafted such a unified message in Colorado -- will unify the party and appease Republican factions that have been hesitant to embrace him. ‘The reality of it is: A party can split and take second place or a party can unify and take the governor's seat," McInnis said. "I've never seen the message of unification so strong among Republicans. They're tired of losing.’"
CONNECTICUT: Colleen Flanagan, state Democratic party spokeswoman, lashed out at Rob Simmons for injecting politics into questions about where terrorism suspects should be tried. Yesterday, Simmons, a Republican running against U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, put out a press release attacking Dodd for voting to allow civilian trials for 9/11 attackers in the U.S. "Rob Simmons and his mentors, George Bush and Karl Rove, have played politics with terrorism and this country's national security since the moment 9/11 occurred," Flanagan said via email. "It's disgusting and it doesn't merit further response."
IOWA: Former Gov. Terry Branstad said Iowa voters’ early preference of him over Gov. Chet Culver is helping his fundraising as the longtime Republican governor begins cranking up his campaign operation. “In 10 contested elections, two primaries and eight general elections, I’ve never been 24 points ahead before,” Branstad said. The Register’s Iowa Poll, taken last week, showed Branstad with the support of 57 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Gov. Chet Culver, a first-term Democrat.
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Sarah Palin released the second leg of her “Going Rogue” book tour yesterday, including a stop in Fort Hood.
“I'm looking forward to seeing everyone in every stop on the tour, but I'm especially looking forward to meeting our brave men and women in uniform at Fort Hood,” Palin said on her Facebook page. “I'm joining the efforts of many others by donating my royalties from the book sales during our stop at Fort Hood to the families of the victims whose lives have been forever changed by the tragic events of November 5th. I am humbled to be able to join the larger effort called ‘Community Response to 11/5,’ which was established by the Central Texas-Fort Hood Chapter of the Association of the US Army (AUSA).”
Yesterday, Palin said, "I think that there were massive warning flags that were missed all over the place and I think that it was quite unfortunate that, to me, it was a fear of being politically incorrect to not -- I am going to use the word -- profile this guy -- profile in the sense of finding out what his radical beliefs were. … Now, because I used the word 'profile' I am going to get clobbered tomorrow morning. The liberals, their heads are just going to be spinning. They're going to say 'she is radical, she is extreme.' "
Palin did not specify what she meant by “profile,” widely and generally believed to be a reference to focusing on groups of people by race, religion or otherwise. There certainly was seemingly enough evidence that Army Major Nadal Hasan was not a competent psychiatrist without “profiling” him. But, NPR reported, that Hasan’s religion may have been a factor in him being passed – despite his poor marks. And the FBI has said it was aware of Hasan’s communications with a radical Imam prior to the shooting, but deemed them not necessarily evidence of so-called radical views.
Hardly “liberals,” Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen gave differing views than Palin on profiling.
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From NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell and Domenico Montanaro Reid healthcare bill, there is a new 5% tax on elective cosmetic surgery.
Today, Oklahoma Republican Sen. Tom Coburn , who is a physician and staunchly opposed to this legislation, suggested on the Senate floor that a woman would be taxed if she had breast reconstruction surgery following cancer.
"In this bill is a 5% tax on cosmetic surgery,” Coburn said. “Just yesterday -- the day before yesterday, U.S. preventive task forces, services, recommended because it's not cost effective that women under 50 not get mammograms unless they have risk factors. Well, you tell that to the thousands of women who were diagnosed with breast cancer lat last -- last year under 50 with a mammogram. You tell them it's not cost effective. Also in this bill is a 5% tax on the breast reconstruction surgery after they had a mastectomy. They're going to tax having your breast rebuilt after your breast is taken off because it is elective plastic surgery. It is elective cosmetic surgery. We're going to have a tax on it because we've taxed elective cosmetic surgery. We're in trouble as a nation because we've taken our eye off the ball."
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From NBC’s Courtney Kube President Obama announces his decision on the way forward in Afghanistan.
After a meeting with Secretary of Defense Robert Gates today, German Minister of Defense Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg told reporters at the Pentagon that he is "eagerly" waiting for "a new concept and new strategic ideas from our American friends."
Before the Germans commit any additional troops, Guttenberg said that they also need "a clear commitment by the Afghan government."
"We need more than just words; we need action" by the Afghan government, Guttenberg said.
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From NBC's Mark Murray CEDAR CREEK, Tex. -- Given that this year's Republican Governors Association meeting is taking place here in Texas, reporters today asked RGA Chairman Haley Barbour , the governor of Mississippi, to weigh in on the Rick Perry -vs.-Kay Bailey Hutchison GOP primary for Texas governor.
Barbour said that the RGA doesn't take sides in primaries, but that he was personally backing Perry. "I personally think Gov. Perry should be re-elected," he said.
And then he added this: "I hope Sen. Hutchison will stay in the United States Senate for the rest of my life."
Asked why he supported Perry over Hutchison, Barbour replied, "I thought he deserved re-election." He then went on to say: "I would hate to lose Kay Bailey in the Senate."
When asked if he has talked to Hutchison about staying in the Senate, Barbour responded simply, "She and I have talked."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray Rudy Giuliani "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy," citing "people who have been told of the decision."
The official word out of Giuliani world is non-committal.
"Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it. When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own," Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said in a statement. And that's all she would say.
That is not the kind of statement that will end speculation, particularly in the New York media market.
Sources say the state Republican Party has not been told of any decision by Giuliani.
Nick Ayers, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, tells First Read that he's not surprised that Giuliani would decide not to run for governor. Giuliani's candidacy was always a longshot, he said.
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From NBC's Ken Strickland Harry Reid today said the crucial vote to bring the legislation to the floor will happen "sometime" Saturday. But he was uncertain he had to 60 votes required to start debate.
"We'll find out when the votes are taken," he said during a Q & A with reporters at a rally with supporters.
Assuming Reid can get the bill to the floor, he will face other 60 vote thresholds, including one for final passage. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) made it clear he will filibuster the final passage of a bill that contained any form of a public option.
Responding to a question about his thin margin for error, Reid said he's had recent conversation with Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins , both from Maine.
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From NBC’s Betsy Cline Mike Mullen said today the president's decision on troop levels was imminent for Afghanistan, though he didn't know exactly when.
In response to a question about what worries him most, Mullen told a group of National Guardsmen it was Afghanistan and Pakistan keeping him up at night. But, he said, the deliberations with the President's national security team about what to do next have been positive and open to differing viewpoints. He said he appreciated the depth and breadth of the conversations.
Defense Secretary Gates also spoke at the event but did not mention the pending Afghanistan decision. He spoke mostly supporting the National Guard and their families, particularly in regards to increasing troop dwell time, or the amount of time between deployments.
From NBC's Mark Murray
South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds (R) explained that one of the tools congressional Democrats have adopted to cover uninsured Americans is by expanding Medicaid, which the states help finance. Yet Rounds said that expanding Medicaid in his state would cost $33 million a year.
"I can't afford that," he said.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) also contended that the legislation would only add to their budget shortfalls in this economic climate.
"This bill [the Senate] is debating is going to make it worse," Perry said. "That is an inarguable fact. ... It will be devastating. I don't think there's any other way to describe it."
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** GOP governors take the stage : Asked if they would work with the president, both men said yes -- especially on issues like charter schools, merit pay, and promoting fatherhood. "The problems in this country and the state of New Jersey are too big" not to find common ground, Christie said. And McDonnell stated that he hopes to work with Obama on issues where they agree, and to "disagree civilly" on issues where they don't. As for Palin, both men sidestepped questions why they didn't have the former Alaska governor campaign for them. Christie said he only had folks who were friends (like Giuliani) or who had won in a blue state (like Pawlenty and Romney) -- although Politico’s Martin reminds us that Bobby Jindal and Jeb Bush helped raise money for him. Meanwhile, McDonnell said his campaign had contacted Palin early in 2009, but her schedule was booked. And by the time she had resigned as governor, his campaign had already finalized all of its events. (Really?)
*** Still plenty of red meat : In short, both Christie and McDonnell sounded like the men who won their races (in part) by hugging the middle. To be sure, there was still plenty of red meat for conservatives at the conference. At a plenary session to discuss state-based solutions, Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- the host here who’s engaged in a primary battle against Kay Bailey Hutchison -- argued that “cap-and-trade will destroy the economy” and proudly raised the specter of the 10th Amendment to push back against that and health care. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal railed against Washington. “The DC model doesn’t work, but the Republican model does work.” And Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty called for lower spending, lower taxes, and fiscal restraint. More than anything, however, the RGA’s message was that the party was making a comeback. “These elections are a springboard for us,” RGA Chairman Haley Barbour told reporters, referring to the GOP wins in Jersey and Virginia.
*** Today's RGA agenda : And here will be a little more red meat today: The attending governors hold a press conference at noon ET to discuss the impact that the health-care legislation will have on their states. At 12:30 pm ET, there's a plenary session looking at next year's gubernatorial races. Speakers include Barbour, Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle, GOP pollster Ed Goeas, and the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy. At 2:00 pm ET, Barbour and Pawlenty hold a news conference on 2010. And finally, at 8:30 pm ET, the RGA meeting concludes with a "Comeback Bash."
*** Summing up the Asia trip : Meanwhile, far away from the events in Texas, President Obama is already on his way back from his eight-trip to Asia. He will arrive at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska around 9:40 am ET, and then return to the White House at 6:25 pm ET. Before leaving, Obama summed up his trip from South Korea: “Today, I'm finishing my first visit to Asia as president. In Tokyo, we renewed and deepened the US-Japan alliance. In Singapore, we worked with leaders from across the Asia Pacific to strengthen the global economic recovery. And in China, we worked to advance the partnership between our town countries on global issues, because cooperation between the United States and China will mean a safer more prosperous world for all of us… In Seoul, President Lee and I reaffirmed the enduring alliance between our countries, an alliance rooted in shared sacrifice, common values, mutual interest and mutual respect.”
*** And defending it : Senior White House adviser David Axelrod tried to answer critics who’ve argued that Obama didn’t accomplish much on the trip. Per NBC’s Athena Jones, Axelrod said the president had done what he set out to do -- lay a solid foundation for diplomacy and strengthen relationships. "We didn't come halfway across the world for tickertape parades," he told reporters. "We didn't have expectations that Barack Obama arrives in China or anywhere else and things change overnight.” Indeed, it is striking to us how everyone seems to be writing Obama’s history right now after he’s been in office for just 10 months. They’re making pronouncements about him -- on his foreign trips, on his economic policies, on health care -- that took many at least five or six years to make about his predecessor.
*** Losing the P.R. battle : While the final history on the stimulus hasn’t been written, it’s clear, as we’ve said before, that the White House is losing the P.R. war over it. The latest embarrassment was a GAO report noting that more than 50,000 jobs the White House said had been “created or saved” due to the stimulus came from projects that reported spending NO MONEY. A White House official responds to First Read. "Three months ago, the critics denied that the Recovery Act was making any jobs. Now as the evidence has proven that wrong, they are left to cast doubts about just how many jobs were made and where. Time is on our side: As late reports coming in, new data will shows the jobs total climbing, and the numbers getting more reliable. In the end, the data debate is frustrating, but a side show: the American people care a lot more about our success in creating jobs than our precision in counting them."
*** What’s next for Reid’s bill? On health care, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid received the score of his bill from the Congressional Budget Office. According to NBC’s Ken Strickland, the cost is $848 billion; it covers 94% of all Americans and an additional 31 million; and it reduces the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years. What’s next? Strickland says the timing on the big vote on the motion to proceed -- i.e., to get the bill on the floor with 60 votes -- could be as early as Friday but more likely on Saturday. And the prospect for 60 votes? Strick reports that Reid met with the three Dem holdouts yesterday: Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, and Mary Landrieu. Nelson released a non-committal statement, but it sounded like he COULD be a “yes.” Meanwhile, the DNC is launching its latest “Call’em out” campaign against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. “McConnell seems willing to use every trick in the book to delay a fair debate and vote on reform. Each day reform is postponed is another day for him to attack it with another distortion. It's a desperate gambit to confuse the American people, derail the effort in Congress, and block reform. Mitch McConnell, we're calling you out.”
*** Palin in the Hoosier State : Palin-palooza today moves to Indiana. She’ll be in largely GOP areas of the state -- Ft. Wayne (noon ET to 3:00 pm ET) and Noblesville (6:00 pm ET to 9:00 pm ET). Ft. Wayne is in Indiana's 3rd Congressional district, won by McCain, 56%-43%, and by GOP Rep. Mark Souder, 55%-40%. Noblesville is in IN-5. McCain won it, 59%-40, and GOP Rep. Dan Burton won it, 66%-35%. After the first stop on her "Going Rogue" book tour yesterday in Michigan, a state she promised to return to after the McCain campaign pulled out, Palin has returned to Twitter, under the handle @SarahPalinUSA, NBC’s Adam Verdugo reports. Her first tweet: “Michigan-thx 4 Going Rogue! Perfect tour kickoff w/Kid Rock tune praising Northern MI humming in backgrnd @ Barnes/Noble. Above expectations.”
*** Also in DC today : Beginning at 10:00 am ET, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee holds a congressional hearing on the massacre at Fort Hood. Also at 10:00 am ET, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies before the Joint Economic Committee about the country's economic recovery.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 19 days
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“After taking his message as the ‘first Pacific president’ through four countries in eight days, President Obama wrapped up his tour of Asia on Thursday with talks with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and a planned visit to U.S. troops stationed in the shadow of nuclear-armed North Korea,” the Washington Post’s Kornblut writes. “The Seoul stop was the last on a trip that has notably lacked concrete achievements but has seen Obama's personal narrative on full display, as he reminisced about the ice cream he ate during a childhood visit to Japan, invoked his "historic ties" to Indonesia and recalled his mother's work in the villages of Southeast Asia. After more than a week of using his biography to connect to audiences in Asia -- perhaps the last corner of the globe where he had yet to take his story -- Obama appeared as popular as ever among ordinary citizens in the region. But is his biography-as-diplomacy approach beginning to show its limits?”
“President Barack Obama said Thursday the United States has begun talking with allies about fresh punishment against Iran for defying efforts to halt its nuclear weapons pursuits. Obama's tough talk came as Iran indicated it would not ship its low-enriched uranium to Russia for processing, the centerpiece of deal aimed at a peaceful resolution to Iran's contested nuclear program. ‘They have been unable to get to ‘yes,’ and so as a consequence, we have begun discussions with our international partners about the importance of having consequences,’ Obama said in a brief news conference with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.” New York Times : “Mr. Obama’s words were his strongest to date and seemed to signal that he was ready to move to sanctions.”
“Congress approved stimulus funding to jump-start the economy, mostly by creating jobs, but also by paying for existing public services and cutting-edge research. In many cases, the $3.9 billion awarded in Massachusetts is financing precisely such ventures,” the Boston Globe says. “But millions of dollars are going to investments that seem further afield from the stimulus plan’s mission.” New York Daily News looks at what it sees as the aging of this president: “President Obama didn't look his age when he took office in January. Ten months later, nobody would mistake him for a kid.”
The Boston Globe on the Senate bill: “Senate majority leader Harry Reid unveiled his long-awaited version of a sweeping health care bill last night, setting the stage for a tense Senate showdown pitting Republicans against a fragile and fractured Democratic majority.” The first big vote could come as early as Saturday. Democrats are hoping they have the 60 votes necessary to advance the bill to debate. “The handful of moderate senators who will decide the question seemed likely to support opening the debate.” AP: “After months of maneuvering, the Senate stands at the brink of a historic battle over health care with President Barack Obama and his allies on one side and Republicans, outnumbered but unflinching, on the other.” Delay, delay, delay? Mitch McConnell’s response: “Now it's America's turn, and this will not be a short debate.” “calling out” McConnell. “McConnell seems willing to use every trick in the book to delay a fair debate and vote on reform. Each day reform is postponed is another day for him to attack it with another distortion. It's a desperate gambit to confuse the American people, derail the effort in Congress, and block reform. Mitch McConnell, we're calling you out.”
“Among the major provisions in the 2,074-page bill is a public health insurance plan that would let states opt out. Lawmakers insisted the bill won't pay for abortion or help illegal immigrants,” the New York Daily News notes. The measure does not have the even more restrictive anti-abortion language the House bill features, which would affect private policies and has created a potential roadblock to passage. Sources said Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch will offer an amendment to make the language the same.”
CONTINUED >>
Sarah Palin, a former high school point guard, heads to the basketball-crazy Hoosier state today on the second day of her “Going Rogue” book tour. Here’s Andrea Mitchell’s report on NBC Nightly News last night from Grand Rapids, Mich., including Palin’s reaction to John McCain’s defense of his campaign.
The Washington Post says Palin’s return to Michigan yesterday “had all the trappings of a political campaign -- bus, advance team, security detail, political handlers, rope lines, satellite trucks and approximately 2,000 supporters and gawkers on site. A blue coach bus with ‘Going Rogue With Sarah!’ written on the front over the likeness of a moose pulled up outside the Barnes and Noble here at about 5:30 p.m. The campaign anthem ‘Only in America’ played on a speaker outside the store. When she got off the bus, wearing her familiar uniform of black skirt, high heels and red blazer, she waved with one hand and held her son Trig, dressed in a striped green sweater, in the other. The group erupted in applause. She walked to a small platform in the middle of the crowd, said ‘Thank you so much for showing up,’ and handed Trig to an aide.”
At the Republican Governors Association meeting in Texas, Palin was hardly a topic -- and if she came up, GOP governors went out of their way to say nice things, according to Politico’s Martin .”[W]hen asked about the party's buzz machine they took pains to choose their words, focusing on the energy she generates among her followers while at the same time offering clenched-jaw assessments indicating a great desire to discuss any other subject.”
The Washington Post says Democrats are calling Eric Cantor (R) a hypocrite on the stimulus.
CONTINUED >>
COLORADO : "The Republican race to challenge Rep. Betsy Markey (D) is getting crowded ." Markey knocked off a three-term Republican incumbent for Colorado's 4th Congressional seat last year, and, as of Tuesday night, faces a third Republican challenger: Dean Madere, "a Louisiana native who works for a heating and air conditioning company and says he's "average" but "frustrated" with the direction of the country."
CONNECTICUT : "In a move that would shake up two political races, the state Republican chairman is publicly asking state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to run against Democratic incumbent Rep. Christopher Murphy in the 5th Congressional district." Caligiuri is currently running for Sen. Chris Dodd's seat, but "has been lagging far behind in the money-raising race against the top-tier, big-money Republican candidates" including Linda McMahon, former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, and Fairfield County investor Peter Schiff. issued a statement contesting Healy's involvement in the race: "The situation in New York's 23rd congressional district showed us what happens when party insiders play favorites,'' Bernier said in a statement. "I am confident that the Republicans in the Fifth District of Connecticut will make the right decision in this nomination process." Bernier has already received the support of the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Pete Sessions.
DELAWARE : A Susquehanna poll shows Beau Biden leading U.S. Rep. Mike Castle in a hypothetical matchup 45%-40%.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Athena Jones SEOUL -- President Obama's trip to Asia was a success, so declared White House senior adviser David Axelrod in response to questions about just what has been accomplished during the president's weeklong first foray to the region.
Axelrod argued the president had done what he set out to do -- lay a solid foundation for diplomacy and strengthen relationships, even as he prepared to return to Washington without the kinds of solid takeaways previous presidential trips have generally produced.
"We didn't come halfway across the world for tickertape parades," he told reporters after Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung Bak held a joint press appearance at the Blue House here. "We came here to lay a foundation for progress. We've done that."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Cost: $849 billion
94 percent of Americans are covered
Reduces the uninsured Americans by $31 million
Reduces the deficit by $127 billion over the first 10 years
From NBC's Sue Kroll
"We urge the Iraqi leaders and parliament to to take quick action," State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly said.
The move raises doubts that the election may not happen on time. The Iraqi constitution mandates the elections happen before the end of January.
The delay could affect U.S. plans for a withdrawal from Iraq, set to begin in 2010.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Sen. Ben Nelson sure sounds like he's leaning "yes" on a cloture vote with this statement below. He released the following after his meeting with Majority Leader Harry Reid this afternoon, and he sure goes out of his way to explain what a vote in favor or cloture would mean.
And these might be the key phrases in here: "In reality, the meaning of the motion to proceed is very simple: It’s a motion to commence debate and an opportunity to make changes. Let me say it again: it is a motion to start debate on a bill and to try to improve it."
Statement in full after the jump:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray John McCain today picked up the phone and called Reuters to defend Steve Schmidt and Nicolle Wallace -- who worked for him in the last year's presidential campaign -- from the charges that Sarah Palin has made about them in her book.
"I think it's just time to move on," he said.
[snip]
"Campaigns are high-pressure situations. The only more high-pressure situation that I've been in is combat and prison," said McCain, a Navy flyer shot down during the Vietnam War and held prisoner for 5 1/2 years.
"But you know, I'm proud of Nicolle and Steve and (senior campaign official) Rick Smith [sic] and (senior adviser) Mark Salter and I'll always have great affection for them," he said.
McCain, who has largely kept silent in the high-profile run-up to Palin's book release and tour, said he remained proud of Palin, whom he plucked from obscurity as governor of Alaska last year to join him in his campaign.
"I'm still really proud of her and the campaign she ran and I think it's pretty obvious that she has a substantial base and interest out there," McCain said.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Amna Nawaz Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Susan Collins (R-ME) confirmed in a press conference today, that their Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee investigation into the shootings at Fort Hood will continue, beginning with a hearing tomorrow.
Lieberman said he supports the military and Justice Department investigations into the shootings, and looks forward to the result of John Brennan's report on intelligence sharing to President Obama , but "that does not mean the rest of us can just sit back and watch."
The Fort Hood shooting, he said, he believes was a terrorist attack, "the most destructive terrorist attack on America since 9/11."
He said Congress has a constitutional responsibility to oversee the operations of the Executive Branch, and that the committee's investigation would focus on answering two questions:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland
At 2:15 pm ET, Democratic moderate Sens. Ben Nelson (NE), Blanche Lincoln (AR) and Mary Landrieu (LA) all walked into Majority Leader Harry Reid 's office together.
Democrats are clearly trying to get their ducks in a row as they make their final push before a potential vote on a Senate health bill and the much-anticipated Congressional Budget Office "score."
Nelson, Lincoln and Landrieu are the remaining holdouts. None of the three has made their intentions clear on a potential final or even cloture vote.
This meeting could be telling.
*** UPDATE ***
In the meeting, Reid is "walking them through the particulars of the bill," Manley said.
When asked if the majority leader was looking for committments on a vote, Manley's response was, "The leader is always looking for committments."
The first big vote could take place as early as Friday or Saturday. (It would be a vote for cloture to move forward and start debate. It's a key vote because 60 votes are needed on this to defeat a filibuster.)
From NBC's Mark Murray Charlie Crist would not be attending the Republican Governors Association meeting here. But an RGA official tells First Read that he will be attending the confab, and will arrive here later tonight.
Crist, of course, is now running for the Senate, and he's facing a competitive primary contest against the more conservative Marco Rubio , who has been endorsed by the Club for Growth.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Rudy Giuliani once again criticized the decision by the Justice Department to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed, who himself claims to be the 9/11 mastermind, in New York City.
On the day Attorney General Eric Holder testified and defended his decision on Capitol Hill, Giuliani, on a conference call organized by the Republican National Committee called the move “unnecessary,” because military tribunals are available as an alternative, it would be too much of a burden on New York City, the process would be “long” and “drawn out” and a trial would inflict pain on families of those affected by 9/11.
As we pointed out earlier , however, in 1994 and even as late as 2006, Giuliani spoke quite differently on his stance on where to try these kinds of suspects.
He said, for example in 1994, per the New York Times, that the verdict in that case “demonstrates that New Yorkers won't meet violence with violence, but with a far greater weapon -- the law.” And "It should show that our legal system is the most mature legal system in the history of the world, that it works well, that that is the place to seek vindication if you feel your rights have been violated."
First Read asked Giuliani if he does not believe that the U.S. courts have more credibility than military tribunals in the eyes of the world, and what’s changed in his view.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland Joe Biden is up there lobbying as is former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle .
Interior Secretary
Ken Salazar , a former centrist U.S. Senator has also been spotted in the hallways, but he says he's just up there to see friends and that he's not really lobbying for health care.
But it's worth noting that Salazar is still friends with many of the key moderate senators whose votes will be crucial in defeating a potential Republican filibuster. Salazar said he was going to see his old friend Arkansas
Sen. Mark Pryor (D), for one.
He certainly picked an odd day to go to the Hill just to hang out, especially since Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is hoping for a vote as early as Friday.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
A spokeswoman for Harper Collins tells NBC News more than 1,000 copies of "Going Rogue" have been sold. The bookstore has already run out of wristbands for those standing in line since early this morning. That means the rest of those who waited in the cold will likely not get a chance to get their book signed by Sarah Palin tonight.
Palin will arrive this afternoon in Grand Rapids and is scheduled to tape an interview for "The 700 Club" and Christian Broadcasting Network correspondent David Brody. The interview is scheduled to air on Thursday morning.
:
The Politico's Ben Smith talks about what message Sarah Palin may be sending to the people of Michigan by making the state the start of her book tour.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Kelly Paice and Ali Weinberg First Thoughts today.)
But Rudy's hot rhetoric today is a far cry from his stance in 1994 after the verdict in the World Trade Center bombing trial.
The New York Times wrote on March 5, 1994: "Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani declared that the verdict 'demonstrates that New Yorkers won't meet violence with violence, but with a far greater weapon -- the law .'"
And: "It should show that our legal system is the most mature legal system in the history of the world, that it works well, that that is the place to seek vindication if you feel your rights have been violated ," Giuliani said.
And from a 2006 Hardball interview about Zacarias Moussaoui not getting the death penalty: 2006: Giuliani on Moussaoui not getting death penalty:
“Yes, I'm disappointed. I believe that the death penalty was appropriate in this case, should have been applied. But then at the same time -- and maybe this is like the contradictory, complex feelings we all have about September 11 and everything that's come from it. At the same time, I have tremendous respect for our legal system. Maybe there is something good that comes out of this in showing these people that -- at least showing the ones that have any kind of an open mind that we are a free society, a lawful society ... that we have respect for people's rights and that we can have disagreements about whether the death penalty should be imposed on somebody like Moussaoui."
So, Mr. Mayor, what's changed?
From NBC's Ali Weinberg As we mentioned in
First Thoughts , NBC's
Chuck Todd sat down with
President Obama to discuss Afghanistan, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, health care, the U.S. economy, and even reports about the president's weight loss. Below is a transcript of the entire interview.
CHUCK TODD: Mr. President, thank you - I know we don't have a lot of time, so I want to dive right into this - Afghanistan. When are you going to make your decision?
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, I think that I will announce my decision over the next several weeks --
TODD: Several weeks away?
OBAMA: Well, I don't want to be pinned down by you.
TODD: By the way, you said when I announce - so you've already made a decision?CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP.
But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest here deep in the heart of Texas, things have certainly changed. Republicans are now celebrating their wins earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia; Palin is no longer in office and is instead selling her controversial memoir; Pawlenty has become a frequent Obama critic and is emphasizing his conservative views; and Crist (who won't be in attendance) has gone from possible GOP hope to a conservative target in his race for the Senate next year.
Indeed, at least four stories will be on display here at the RGA meeting, which concludes on Thursday night. One, is the GOP poised for a political comeback? Two, looking ahead to 2012, who are the party's potential presidential candidates? (Pawlenty, Louisiana's Bobby Jindal , RGA Chair Haley Barbour of Mississippi, and Indiana's Mitch Daniels will be in attendance.) Three, who are their top gubernatorial candidates for the 2010 midterms? (Ohio's John Kasich , Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett , and Florida's Bill McCollum will be here.) And four, is there really an ideological split inside the party? (While Palin is selling her book today in Michigan, the RGA will be celebrating two Republicans who won, in part, by hugging the middle -- New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie and Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell .)
It's also worth noting how the GOP rhetoric has changed from last year to this year. Here was Pawlenty a year ago in Miami: "People mostly want to follow positive leaders; they don't want to follow cranks." Here was Jindal: "We can't just be the party of 'No.'" Here was even Palin: "We are the minority party, but let us resolve not to become the negative party." Ironically, becoming the party of "No" has paid dividends -- so far -- for the GOP a year after Obama's historic win. The question to ponder is whether that's a sustainable long-term message for the party.
Today's RGA agenda: The public events kick off at 5:30 pm ET with a plenary session entitled "State-Based Solutions." It features Pawlenty, Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry , Kasich, Corbett, Christie, and McDonnell. Then, at 7:00 pm ET, there's a press briefing to discuss the 2009 campaigns. Speakers include RGA Chairman Barbour, McDonnell, Christie, RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers, and GOP pollster Glen Bolger and Jon Lerner. Finally, at 8:35 pm ET, Perry, Jindal, McDonnell, and Christie speak at a "Victory Barbeque."
From NBC's Mark Whitaker
Still, the widespread suggestion in some of the media commentary that she simply isn’t qualified enough to be considered a viable presidential candidate is ridiculous.
NBC's Mark Murray on Palin's rough year. and Palin timeline here.
For male politicians, it’s always been a rule of thumb in politics and the media that once you were on a presidential ticket, you were automatically elevated onto the short list of contenders for future races. If George H.W. Bush had lost in 1988, does anyone think Dan Quayle would not have been talked about as a potential candidate for 1992, even with all the political flaws he revealed in that race? Would the media have taken John Edwards as seriously in 2008 if he hadn’t been John Kerry’s running mate in 2004?
Call it sexism or what you will, but why should the media only compare ambitious women to impressive men, when so many ambitious but underwhelming men get so far in this world? Is she qualified to be President? If she decides to run, that’s a judgment for voters to make, not us in the media.
For the full story, click here.
Mark Whitaker is NBC News' Washington Bureau Chief.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Sarah Palin -- the first stop on her book tour.
People had driven for hours to get in line for an orange wristband and instructions to return and line up later. Palin is expected to be signing books from 6:00 pm to 9:00 pm. Mall operators say she'd have to sign one book every 15 seconds to get through everyone with a wristband so far.
Those lined up here in battleground Michigan are hard-core Palin fans. Many are women who say they relate to Palin because "she's an ordinary person."
Another told me that she's "inspired by a woman who started from nothing."
"She means what she says, says what she means."
People were wrapped up in blankets, a few had strollers, and some elderly people had walkers. Some dads had secured a place in line and were later joined by the rest of the family. Many people said they'd made it a holiday, taking a motel room nearby. Two students, both young women, came from Michigan State. One said she viewed Palin as a celebrity better qualified to host a talk show than to be president. But most of the others in line were unqualified political supporters, who said they wanted to see Palin in the White House.
Many were sporting 2008 buttons and stickers from the McCain -Palin campaign.
From Michigan, Palin goes to Indiana tomorrow for another signing.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Still weeks away? In an interview with one of us from Beijing, President Obama said he was possibly still weeks away from making an announcement on Afghanistan. “I will announce my decision over the next several weeks… I'm confident that at the end of this process we will be able to present to the American people in very clear terms what exactly is at stake what we intend to do, how we're going to succeed, how much it's going to cost, how long it's going to take. And I think that's what owed the American people, because frankly over the last several years that's not what they've gotten.” He also said that reducing the number of troops in the short term is NOT an option. “Part of … the task here is making sure that Afghanistan is sufficiently stable so that we can make that hand off. So my goal is … creating a situation in which our footprint is smaller and Afghan security forces can do the job of keeping their country together.” Will his decision end the war? He replied, “This decision will put us on a path towards ending the war.”
*** On Khalid Sheikh Mohammed: The president gave a tough response about Khalid Sheikh Mohammed when he was asked why some might be offended that a terrorist gets the same legal protections than an American citizen gets. “I don't think it will be offensive at all when he's convicted and when the death penalty is applied to him.” When pressed whether he was already prejudging the verdict, Obama replied, “What I said was people will not be offended if that's the outcome. I'm not pre-judging; I'm not going to be in that courtroom. That's the job of prosecutors, the judge, and the jury. What I'm absolutely clear about is that I have complete confidence in the American people and our legal traditions and the prosecutors, the tough prosecutors from New York who specialize in terrorism.” (At 11:15 am ET, Rudy Giuliani holds a conference call, sponsored by the RNC, to once again criticize the administration decision to try KSM and others in federal court.)
:
President Obama talks about his decision on a new Afghanistan strategy, the planned trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and a growing list of missed White House deadlines.
*** On health care, the jobs summit, and his weight: Also in the interview, Obama said he expected to sign a health-care bill into law before the State of the Union next year. But when asked if that signing would happen this year, he answered, “You will not hear that from me.” When asked how next month’s job summit will create jobs, he replied, “The goal of the jobs summit is to figure out -- are they ways of us accelerating that hiring? And there are a whole range of ideas out there… One of the benefits of convening this group is it gives us chance to talk directly to small businesses, medium-size businesses, the main drivers of employment.” And he laughed off speculation about any apparent weight loss, but said the burden of the office weighs on him. “My weight fluctuates about five pounds; it has for the last 30 years. It's unchanging. I still wear the same stuff when I got married 17 years ago.” He added, “Everyday I wake up thinking how can I give those folks who are out of work right now a job; how can I make sure that people who don't have health care get health care; how can I make sure that I'm doing right by those young men and women who are in Afghanistan. And I would be lying if I said that those aren't weighted questions that I carry around on my shoulders every day.”
*** A tough weekend for the White House? Both the New York Times and Washington Post have critical takes of what Obama has been able to accomplish in China (so far), which could lead to some tough post-mortems this weekend. Here's the Times: "In six hours of meetings, at two dinners and during a stilted 30-minute news conference in which President Hu Jintao did not allow questions, President Obama was confronted, on his first visit, with a fast-rising China more willing to say no to the United States." And here's the Post: "President Obama has emerged from his first trip to China with no big breakthroughs on important issues, such as Iran's nuclear program or China's currency." Obama has arrived on the last leg of his Asia trip -- South Korea.
*** CBO numbers finally come out today? Speaking of health care, the latest guidance from a key Senate leadership aide is they expect to get the Congressional Budget Office numbers today on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's health-care bill, NBC’s Ken Strickland notes. The source wouldn't call it definitive but said, "Expect them to come out [today]." Also, as has been reported, Sen. Robert Byrd (D) today becomes the longest-serving member of Congress -- ever. Strickland says that Sens. Reid, Mitch McConnell, and Jay Rockefeller will speak about the milestone later this morning.
*** My, how things change: When GOP governors huddled at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting a year ago in Miami, the party had just suffered another thumping at the polls, Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP. But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest today just outside of Austin, TX, things have certainly changed. Republicans are now celebrating their wins earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia; Palin is no longer in office and is instead selling her controversial memoir; Pawlenty has become a frequent Obama critic and is emphasizing his conservative views; and Charlie Crist (who won't be in attendance) has gone from possible GOP hope to a conservative target in his race for the Senate next year.
*** What to watch: Indeed, at least four stories will be on display here at the RGA meeting, which concludes on Thursday night. One, is the GOP poised for a political comeback? Two, looking ahead to 2012, who are the party's potential presidential possibilities? (Pawlenty, Jindal, RGA Chair Haley Barbour, and Mitch Daniels will be in attendance.) Three, who are their top gubernatorial candidates for the 2010 midterms? (Ohio's John Kasich, Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, and Florida's Bill McCollum will be here.) And four, is there really an ideological split inside the party? (While Palin is selling her book today in Michigan, the RGA will be feting two Republicans who won, in part, by hugging the middle -- Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell.)
*** Then vs. now: It's also worth noting how the GOP rhetoric has changed from last year to this year. Here was Pawlenty a year ago in Miami: "People mostly want to follow positive leaders; they don't want to follow cranks." Here was Jindal: "We can't just be the party of 'No.'" Here was even Palin: "We are the minority party, but let us resolve not to become the negative party." Ironically, becoming the party of "No" has paid dividends -- so far -- for the GOP a year after Obama's historic win. The question to ponder is whether that's a sustainable long-term message for the party.
*** Today's RGA agenda: The public events kick off at 5:30 pm ET with a plenary session entitled "State-Based Solutions." It features Pawlenty, Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Kasich, Corbett, Christie, and McDonnell. Then, at 7:00 pm ET, there's a press briefing to discuss the 2009 campaigns. Speakers include RGA Chairman Barbour, McDonnell, Christie, RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers, and GOP pollsters Glen Bolger and Jon Lerner. Finally, at 8:35 pm ET, Perry, Jindal, McDonnell, and Christie speak at a "Victory Barbeque."
*** Palin as Douglas MacArthur -- I shall return: As previously mentioned, Palin-palooza (Day 7, by our count) moves to Grand Rapids, MI, where Palin begins her battleground state book tour. The event takes place from 6:00 pm ET to 9:00 pm ET. Remember that Michigan is the state the McCain camp withdrew from the day of Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. Afterward, Palin went, well, rogue and openly questioned the move. “I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try," she said. Recently, in a posting she made on her Facebook page announcing her book tour dates, Palin quipped, “Last year, I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I’m keeping that promise.” By the way, Grand Rapids is in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, which McCain narrowly won in the 2008 Election. It’s represented by a Republican in Congress, who won the seat in '08, 61%-35%.
*** The scene in Grand Rapids: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, who’s on the ground in Grand Rapids, says that 1,500 people camped out in the mall there for an opportunity to see Palin later tonight. Mitchell adds that the people are hard-core supporters, who call her a “maverick” and think she can be president. They’re also angry about the recent Newsweek cover, saying that it’s sexist and inappropriate for a former VP nominee.
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The New York Times : In six hours of meetings, at two dinners and during a stilted 30-minute news conference in which President Hu Jintao did not allow questions, President Obama was confronted, on his first visit, with a fast-rising China more willing to say no to the United States. On topics like Iran (Mr. Hu did not publicly discuss the possibility of sanctions), China’s currency (he made no nod toward changing its value) and human rights (a joint statement bluntly acknowledged that the two countries “have differences”), China held firm against most American demands.”
The Washington Post adds, “President Obama has emerged from his first trip to China with no big breakthroughs on important issues, such as Iran's nuclear program or China's currency. Yet after two days of talks with the United States' biggest creditor, the administration asserted that relations between the two countries are at ‘an all-time high.’”
“A must-see for presidents from President Richard Nixon on, the Great Wall was one of Obama's major sightseeing stops during his diplomatic tour of Asia. He later traveled to Seoul, South Korea, the final stop of his eight-day trip,” the AP writes. Dressed in a winter jacket against a biting wind at the Great Wall, Obama led a knot of people for a half-hour jaunt up the crenelated wall toward a watchtower, a restored section originally built 500 years ago.”
The president has arrived in South Korea, and the Washington Post previews his agenda in Seoul. “President Obama, who arrived here Wednesday night on the final stop of his East Asia tour, will grapple with two longstanding U.S. concerns on the Korean Peninsula, one in the nuclear-armed North and the other here in the trade-dependent South.”
CONTINUED >>
Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) today becomes the longest-serving member of Congress -- ever . There will be a resolution recognizing that today. “Setting records is old news to the white-maned Democratic lawmaker. Since June 12, 2006, Byrd has been the longest-serving senator and later that year he was elected to an unprecedented ninth term. His colleagues have elected him to more leadership positions than any senator in history. He has cast more than 18,000 votes and, despite fragile health that has kept him from the Senate floor during much of this year, has a nearly 98 percent attendance record over the course of his career. Which, by Byrd's count, has spanned 20,774 days. On Tuesday, Byrd's service tied the record set by Carl Hayden, D-Ariz., who served in the House, then the Senate, from 1912 to 1969.”
“Republicans senators plan to grill Attorney General Eric Holder on Wednesday about his pledge not to allow the release of dangerous detainees into the United States,” The Hill writes. “Holder’s testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee marks the first time senators have had a chance to question Holder publicly since the Department of Justice announced its decision to try five terrorist suspects, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the self-described mastermind behind the Sept. 11 attacks, in U.S. courts.”
Another Hill piece: “Clear differences have emerged among the Democratic chairmen of the six Senate committees with jurisdiction over climate change legislation. Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.), chairman of the Commerce Committee, who both represent states with significant coal industries, would like to proceed cautiously.” Rockefeller “said climate legislation should not reach the floor before July of next year, putting the controversial bill on the schedule only months before Election Day.” Interest-group proponents of the legislation told First Read yesterday they had been thinking legislation would be taken up in early spring. But clearly it’s the next big fight after health care and chalk it up to another 2010 issue on top of bailouts, the stimulus, health care, and Afghanistan.
“A government watchdog group accused Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) of violating House rules, asserting Tuesday that the lawmaker improperly used official resources to organize a recent ‘tea party’ event at the Capitol to oppose health care legislation,” Roll Call writes.
“Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) confirmed Senate Democratic leaders’ fears that he will insist that the massive health care reform bill be read aloud on the Senate floor.”
:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is pushing for the passage of health care legislation, but is a health bill by year's end 'wishful thinking'?
In a conference call yesterday previewing this week's two-day Republican Governors Association meeting in Austin, RGA Chairman Haley Barbour (also the governor of Mississippi) said the purpose of the meeting was "to celebrate and build on the successes in New Jersey and Virginia this month," but more importantly "to work through the ways we can make sure these are effective springboards for victories in 2010."
Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), also on the call, added that the victories in New Jersey and Virginia -- where GOP candidates focused more on their fiscal records than social ones -- reflected the need for Republican governors to "implement effective conservative policies that are going to regain the trust in our party's ability to govern."
Perry faces a tough primary battle next year against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), who gained the endorsement of former Vice President Dick Cheney on Tuesday. When asked about the endorsement, Perry said, he's "got a whole pile of them" and looks forward "to continuing to add endorsements to our long list."
CONTINUED >>
The liberal group Americans United for Change says it’s announcing the first wave of a multi-million-dollar ad campaign to back up the 13 House Democrats (and one Republican) who voted for the health-care bill and who have been the target of the GOP-leaning Chamber of Commerce and the 60 Plus Association. Those 13 House members: Baron Hill (IN), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Joe Donnelly (IN), Chris Murphy (CT), Joseph Cao (LA), Earl Pomeroy (ND), Marion Berry (AR), Vic Snyder (AR), Tom Perriello (VA), Gerry Connolly (VA), Paul Hodes (NH), Michael Michaud (ME) and Dina Titus (NV).
Here’s one of the ads.
The Hill lists what it sees as its top seven House and Senate 2010 primaries. Senate: Florida (R), Pennsylvania (D), both sides in Kentucky, Utah (R), Connecticut (R), Colorado (D), Nevada (R); House: SC-4 (R), IL-10 (D), LA-2 (D), FL-8 (R), VA-2 (R), MI-7 (R), NY-19 (R).
ARKANSAS: "The Republican Party of Arkansas has scheduled a straw poll for U.S. Senate candidates next month in an early gauge of strength for would-be GOP challengers to Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln. All of the seven announced Republican candidates said Monday they would take part in the straw poll planned for Dec. 5 during the Winter Republican Leadership Summit at Hot Springs. Recent polls have shown support sagging for Lincoln, who is seeking a third term in the 2010 election."
CONNECTICUT: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), running for Senate “called for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to be fired for his ‘mishandling’ of AIG’s bailout.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Connecticut (D)
Nevada (D)
Colorado (D)
Missouri (R)
New Hampshire (R)
Ohio (R)
Illinois (D)
Louisiana (R)
Pennsylvania (D)
Kentucky (R)
CONNECTICUT: "In another measure of just how important U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd's fate is to the Democratic party, the embattled Connecticut senator is getting his third high-profile visit of the fall. Vice President Joseph Biden will come to Hartford on Dec. 11 for a lunchtime fundraiser for Dodd...Dodd, who is up for reelection in Nov. 2010, has been struggling in the polls. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found that more than half of the state's voters disapprove of his job performance. And 53 percent said the 30-year incumbent doesn't deserve a another term in Washington." Hartford Courant writes that despite his low name recognition, Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) shouldn't be written off as a contender in the 2010 Connecticut governor's race. NEVADA: Politico on the GOP's allowing Doug Hampton, John Ensign's former lover's husband, to carry out his "one-man crusade" against Ensign: "By pressuring Ensign to resign, the GOP could face a distracting intraparty squabble just as it prepares to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in what will very likely be the most contested race of the 2010 midterm elections. And after seeing the media frenzy from their unsuccessful efforts to push Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) from office after he was caught in a bathroom sex sting in 2007, GOP leaders believe it’s better to avoid commenting on the matter."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Sue Kroll Hillary Clinton 's recent praise for what she called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu 's "unprecedented" steps on the controversial issue of settlements, the traveling White House has issued a very tough statement slamming Israel for further expansion of settlements in Arab East Jerusalem.
Issued just now under White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs' name, the statement reads:
We are dismayed at the Jerusalem Planning Committee's decision to move forward on the approval process for the expansion of Gilo in Jerusalem. At a time when we are working to re-launch negotiations, these actions make it more difficult for our efforts to succeed. Neither party should engage in efforts or take actions that could unilaterally pre-empt, or appear to pre-empt, negotiations. The U.S. also objects to other Israeli practices in Jerusalem related to housing, including the continuing pattern of evictions and demolitions of Palestinian homes. Our position is clear: the status of Jerusalem is a permanent status issue that must be resolved through negotiations between the parties.
State Department spokesman Ian Kelly told reporters Tuesday that the Israeli plan to expand the Gilo settlement in East Jerusalem is "dismaying."
According to news reports, Israeli officials set forth a plan on Tuesday to build 900 more housing units in a Jewish neighborhood that had been claimed by Palestinians.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
The Republicans say they want to know what the military has done to find out if other troubled service members like Maj. Hasan are still out there. But congressional Democrats and the Obama administration would prefer to hold off on hearings to let the military do its investigation first.
"We can't afford to wait," said Rep. Peter King of Long Island.
They also said that what they called "some tools" that were used by the U.S. intelligence community in the Bush administration are no longer being used now, though they declined to be more specific. They did say it was "political philosophy" that have caused the current administration to decline to use some of these methods.
Rep. Peter Hoekstra , the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, said he hopes the Army keeps an open mind in its investigation about whether the shootings might have been an act of terrorism.
From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube Despite the fact that the Pentagon just announced last Friday that 133 active duty soldiers have committed suicide so far in 2009, today the Army admitted that there have actually been 211 possible soldier suicides so far this year.
Why the discrepancy? Last week's announcement did not factor in soldiers who were not on active duty at the time of their death -- that is, National Guard and Reserve soldiers.
As of November 16, 140 active duty U.S. soldiers are either confirmed or suspected to have committed suicide so far this year ... AND another 71 Army National Guard and Army Reserve soldiers who were NOT deployed at the time of death are also possible or confirmed suicide victims.
Of course, with so many Guard and Reserve soldiers serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, a soldier could be back from the war zone for only a matter of weeks before being inactivated -- but last week's announcement did not factor them in. CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Wendy Jones Four members of the House GOP Conference, engaged in a little Democrat-bashing this morning, criticizing
President Obama's antiterrorism strategy and
"Speaker Pelosi's" health care plan.
Minority Leader John Boehner (OH) criticized the Obama administration for not detailing an over-arching strategy to "fight terrorists and keep America safe." Said Boehner, "I spent last week travelling...and if there's one thing I heard out there it's that the Democrats in Washington are totally out of step" with America. He went on to criticize the Administration for its plan to bring Kahlid Sheik Mohammed to New York: "To come to the US is one issue...to be given the rights of US citizens is just awful."
He urged collegues to bring Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI)'s "Keep Terrorists out of America" legislation to the floor. The bill urges Congress to oppose transferring or releasing prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility to the United States. CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg A productive day : President Obama today finished up his most important and productive day of his trip. A day-long summit with the Chinese led to some new concessions from both countries on climate issues (“We are creating a joint clean energy research center, and have achieved agreements on energy efficiency, renewable energy, cleaner uses of coal, electric vehicles, and shale gas,” Obama said), on the economy and America’s $800 billion debt to the Chinese in financing the stimulus (“China's partnership has proved critical in our effort to pull ourselves out of the worst recession in generations,” Obama added), and on North Korea (“The two sides will work with other parties concerned to continue the denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula,” Hu said). But splits remained on human rights (yet simply getting the Chinese president to acknowledge U.S. concerns was seen by the White House as a big step) and potentially on Iran. President Obama remains in China and leaves tomorrow for South Korea.
*** A quick programming note : Chuck, who has been covering Obama on his Asia trip, sits down with the president for an interview tomorrow. Be sure to watch TODAY, Nightly News and MSNBC, as well as click on to First Read, to see what Obama has to say about his trip and also what’s been happening in the U.S. while he’s been away.
*** Showdown with Iran? On the topic of Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency has “voiced strong suspicions in a report on Monday that the country was concealing other atomic facilities,” the New York Times front-pages. And Jeffrey Bader, the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security who’s traveling with the president, came awfully close to admitting the Iranians would probably reject the current deal on the table, paving the way for a showdown at the UN over sanctions. “The president did talk to President Hu about the possibility -- indeed, at this point, when -- well, let's say -- I won't characterize -- let's just say the possibility that we will not reach resolution of this issue and we may have to go to track two and greater pressure. I would not say that we got an answer today from the Chinese, nor did we expect one on the subject. I'm confident that whatever direction we choose to go -- we need to go towards the end of the year, that the Chinese will remain part of the unified P5-plus-1 front."
*** Battle over the judiciary : Today, the full Senate is expected to take up David Hamilton’s nomination to serve on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions, the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has threatened to filibuster Hamilton’s nomination and other Republicans are opposing it as well -- which has surprised the White House, given Hamilton’s easy confirmation as federal district judge and the fact that he’s endorsed by his home state GOP senator, Dick Lugar. The Hamilton vote comes as liberals say they’re disappointed at the Obama administration’s pace of nominating judges. The New York Times editorial page writes, “President Bush … made his nominations quickly and pushed hard to have them confirmed. By the end of his first year, according to a report by the liberal group Alliance for Justice, he had nominated 65 federal judges and 28 were confirmed.” But: “Mr. Obama has moved slowly. As of Nov. 4, he had nominated just 26 appellate and district court judges, and only four of them had been confirmed.”
*** Palin-palooza, Day Six (by our count) : Today, Palin’s book, “Going Rogue,” officially hits bookstores… In an interview with ABC , Palin criticized Obama’s presidency, praised the Tea Party protests, and didn't rule out a 2012 bid. "My ambition if you will, my desire, is to help our country in whatever role that may be, and I cannot predict what that will be, what doors would be open in the year 2012."… On her Facebook page , she calls the Newsweek cover photo of her (which had previously appeared in Runner’s World) “unfortunate” and “sexist”… Per NBC’s Adam Verdugo, Palin’s SarahPAC has sent out an e-mail to supporters late Monday night offering to send a signed copy of her memoir to anyone who donates $100 or more (the Republican Governors Association also is raising money this way from Palin’s book)… And in that SarahPAC email, Palin says that Ronald Reagan “entered office during an economic recession even worse than our current one, but he left office after overseeing the largest peacetime economic expansion in American history.” (Economists and Bill Clinton would probably take issue with both claims.)
*** Would Reagan have passed today’s conservative litmus test? Evan Thomas’ piece on Palin in the latest issue of Newsweek raises this provocative question, especially for conservatives who are targeting Charlie Crist in Florida, Bob Bennett in Utah, and even Lindsey Graham in South Carolina: Would Ronald Reagan -- just looking at his record as president -- be a target for conservatives today? After all, he raised taxes; his policies increased the size of the deficit; he reached out, through diplomatic channels, to Russia to end the Cold War; he had a pragmatist like James Baker serve as his chief of staff; and he picked the moderate George H.W. Bush as his running mate.
*** “It’s a good time to be in Beijing” : By the way, when one of us asked ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican serving as Obama’s ambassador to China, about the current ideological fight in the GOP, he answered, "It's a good time to be in Beijing." He seemed genuinely bemused by Palin-palooza, and said every time he gets sucked into paying a tiny bit of attention, he throws himself back into work on China issues. Do remember that Huntsman, a moderate who at one time was seen as a possible 2012 GOP candidate, saw a local Michigan GOP chapter cancel an event with Huntsman due to his centrist views (like his support for civil unions).
*** Cheney stumps for KBH : Former Vice President Dick Cheney will officially endorse Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in her gubernatorial primary bid against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R). The event takes place in Houston at 5:00 pm ET, and it comes after Hutchison announced that she would remain in the Senate through the primary. Previously, the understanding was that Hutchison would resign her Senate seat this November to concentrate on the race full time.
*** More 2010 watch : In his column in CongressDaily, Charlie Cook writes that Republicans are poised to pick up House seats this cycle. But he notes that three factors could keep the GOP gains well below the level they need to take back Congress: 1) the Republican Party’s poor brand; 2) it’s ideological civil war; and 3) the lack of Democratic retirements (as of now). “Keep in mind that 40 percent of the 52 House seats Democrats lost in 1994 were open. As it stands, there seems to be little chance that 30 to 35 or more Democratic incumbents will lose next year.” Cook concludes, “Democrats certainly have the most challenges, but there are enough potentially offsetting factors that this might not be the Category 4 or 5 hurricane Republicans fervently hope for.”
*** And now … your moment of Zen : Finally today, Vice President Biden tapes an appearance for Comedy Central’s “Daily Show.”
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 21 days
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Here’s the New York Times wrapping up Obama’s day in China: “President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China met in private off Tiananmen Square here on a frigid Tuesday morning to discuss issues like trade, climate change and the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, in a session that signaled the central role of China on the world stage. The leaders told reporters afterward that the United States and China were in agreement on a range of issues, but they spoke only in general terms.”
The Washington Post adds, “A stiff joint appearance by Obama and Hu in the Great Hall of the People overlooking Tiananmen Square crystallized the state of the relationship between the two world powers: increasingly important to both countries, but also curiously bereft of warmth or intimacy.”
The AP looks at Obama's bow -- which is being criticized on the right -- and it finds lots of spin in opponents' criticism: "While it may have been an awkward moment, it wasn't without precedent. And it appeared to be well within protocol guidelines that the State Department issues for foreign service officers working in other countries." Politico , "White House aides say the approach is deliberate – part of Obama’s determination to deliver on his campaign promise of directly engaging friends and enemies alike, giving America a less belligerent posture abroad. 'I think it's very important for the United States not to assume that what is good for us is automatically good for somebody else,' Obama told the students at the town hall, in Shanghai. 'And we have to have some modesty about our attitudes towards other countries.'"
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post : “As the Senate prepares to take up legislation aimed at overhauling the nation's health-care system, President Obama and the Democrats are still struggling to win the battle for public opinion. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Americans deeply divided over the proposals under consideration and majorities predicting higher costs ahead” -- with 48% saying they support the health changes moving through Congress and 49% saying they oppose them.
“But Republican opponents have done little better in rallying the public opposition to kill the reform effort. Americans continue to support key elements of the legislation, including a mandate that employers provide health insurance to their workers and access to a government-sponsored insurance plan for those people without insurance.”
The New York Times is the latest to profile Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf. “Mr. Elmendorf, a mild-mannered economist with a Harvard Ph.D., runs the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan agency charged with assessing how legislation, like President Obama’s proposed health overhaul, would affect the federal budget. His detailed analyses — ‘scores’ in Washington argot — are highly educated guesswork but are more or less the final word, making him a combination oracle and judge on many of the biggest issues of the day.”
"Senate Judiciary ranking member Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) said Monday that he will filibuster the nomination of David Hamilton to serve on the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, Roll Call says. 'I think I will support not going forward,' Sessions told reporters, criticizing Hamilton’s record as a district court judge in southern Indiana. Sessions said Hamilton’s past rulings on abortion rights and prayer present 'extraordinary' circumstances for a Senate filibuster, although he predicted the nomination will still be approved by the Senate this week."
CONTINUED >>
Oprah Winfrey’s much-anticipated interview with Sarah Palin aired yesterday, featuring the former vice presidential candidate’s musings on politics, pregnancies, and porn. Speaking about her handlers on the campaign trail with John McCain, Palin said, “If I were to respond to a reporter's questions very candidly, honestly -- for instance, they say, ‘What do you think about the campaign pulling out of Michigan?’ And I think, ‘Darn, I wish we weren't. Every vote matters. Can't wait to get back to Michigan,’ and then told afterwards that, ‘Oh, you screwed up. You went rogue on us, Sarah.’”
By the way, John McCain himself says the $50,000 bill Palin was so appalled the campaign wouldn't pay was for the "Troopergate" scandal and NOT for vetting her.
CONTINUED >>
FLORIDA : This week, the Sunshine State plays host to some famous Republican authors, as Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck all visit the Lake Sumter Landing Barnes and Noble in the coming week to promote their new books . Outside Huckabee’s signing yesterday, “members of the Tri-County Tea Party, which represents Lake, Marion and Sumter counties, waved signs and banners to offer support to Huckabee.” Despite his appearance in this battleground state, Pawlenty stayed mum on his plans for 2012. "Well, honestly -- and this is really true -- I don't plan to really think about it until after the 2010 elections," he said. "We got to see what happens in the interim." MASSACHUSETTS : On Martha Coakley, the Boston Globe writes, "This Senate campaign, her longtime friends and close family members say, is in many ways her destiny. She was born with a desire and ability to achieve great things in the public realm, and she has spent a career -- indeed, a lifetime -- seeking something more. But one person’s ambition is another’s opportunism, and amid her many triumphs, she has been dogged by criticism that she pushed prosecutions too hard or not hard enough, sometimes for reasons of expedience. In the highly publicized Woodward trial, a judge reduced the jury’s murder verdict to involuntary manslaughter in a slap at prosecutors. In the Big Dig settlements, the only company she criminally charged was one of the smallest.is calling for all troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Wendy Jones Jeannie Ritter ), Michelle Obama addressed a group of young women at a luncheon in Denver, part of the White House initiatve on mentoring.
In her opening remarks, Ritter told her audience that "as young women you also have to be ready to accept that mentoring ... and you have to have done some interior work about what your strengths are."
Obama noted that there were many successful women in the room -- cabinet secretaries, CEOs, a former ambassador, an astronaut. But, she cautioned, "They didn't get to this stage because of some magic." Like her, some came from modest backgrounds. All worked hard.
Said the First Lady: "We've all found someone who told us we were not good enough .... We've all failed, all made mistakes ... but we did not let those mistakes shatter us .... That is what you can learn from the women in this room .... Everything you need to be successful you own."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Sarah Palin is no fan of the DC Republican establishment. But one group with which she still has a pretty good relationship: the Republican Governors Association.
She's now offering "individually signed 'Going Rogue' limited edition copies " for a $100 contribution to the RGA.
Remember that during the '09 elections, Palin also plugged the RGA on her Facebook page and solicited donations for it. She and the group's executive director Nick Ayers knew each other before she was picked as McCain's veep, since she used to be a governor.
From NBC's Robert Windrem
With the tenor and volume of debate rising over America’s commitment to Afghanistan, that struggle is complicating U.S. strategy to stabilize the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. It's not only that dozens are dying every week in suicide bombings or that there are concerns that the Pakistani military will not be able to hold the territory it has won in hard-fought battles in South Waziristan. The more profound issue, say Pakistani and U.S. officials, is the fate of President Asif Ali Zardari, who is engaged in a seemingly never-ending battles with the country’s powerful military and intelligence establishments.
In recent weeks, say officials, opponents of Zardari have begun raising the stakes, setting up what some are calling a “soft coup … a legislative coup” -- an attempt to force Zardari out. How does this all play out in terms of relations with the U.S.? Often, the Americans are caught in the middle.
NBC producer Amna Nawaz recently returned from Pakistan. You can watch and read some of her work from here trip here.
For more on this story, click here .
From NBC's Rich Gardella
A representative of Chairman Levin 's office confirmed that the Committee postponed the briefing at the request of the Obama administration.
According to previous reports, U.S. Army Secretary John McHugh and Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey would have briefed staffers about the details of the Fort Hood incident.
The briefing would have been the third for Senate Armed Services Committee staff.
From NBC's Ken Strickland Harry Reid will have cost estimate today from the Congressional Budget Office for his health-care bill.
*** UPDATE *** USA Today:
Sen. Tom Harkin , chairman of the Senate health committee, told The Bill Press Show this morning that the health care debate "will start in earnest" Nov. 30, the Monday after Thanksgiving.
A vote to allow the debate to start likely will take place this Friday, but it won't be until after Thanksgiving that the Senate will entertain amendments, he said.
From NBC's Mark Murray Sarah Palin's rough year since last November's presidential contest, and whether or not she can make a political comeback.
Consider President Barack Obama with the ups and downs in his first year in office. Or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who's facing a tough re-election bid and the difficult task of getting 60 votes to pass health care through his chamber. And don't forget the leaders of the Republican party who are out of power and have seen the GOP’s poll numbers decline.
But from the moment the 2008 campaign ended until her surprising resignation as Alaska governor in July, Palin has endured political setbacks, suffered through embarrassing revelations, became the subject of ethics complaints (most of which were dismissed), and even feuded with a late-night comedian and the father of her grandchild.
click here for the rest of the article.
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A Morning Meeting Panel talks about the upcoming release of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's memoirs and the effect it will have on her political career.
Due to technical difficulties (a.k.a. a Washington Bureau power outage... as you'll read below), we were delayed in getting First Read out this morning. Thanks to our readers for your patience. Everything's not quite up to speed here (as of 12:50 p.m. ET). But we'll be doing our best to keep you updated on all your political news.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg The lights go out in China (and in D.C.!): In a test of how much freedom the Chinese actually have, President Obama held a town hall earlier today in Shanghai. And it’s quite possible that more Americans -- in the middle of the night -- saw the town hall than Chinese did in the middle of their day. The reason: State Chinese TV aired only edited clips of the president’s town hall. That, however, didn’t stop Obama from (subtly) denouncing censorship. “I have a lot of critics in the United States who can say all kinds of things about me,” he said at the town hall. “I actually think that makes our democracy stronger, and it makes me a better leader.” Yet just as one of us was reporting on TODAY about censorship in China, the lights went out in our Washington bureau, causing our morning First Read note to come out a little later than usual this morning. It’s just a coincidence our power went out at that very time, we think… Obama today already has traveled from Shanghai to Beijing, where President Hu greeted him. Later tonight (Eastern time), Obama and Hu hold a bilateral and make statements to the press.
*** The emerging framework on Afghanistan? Also during his town hall, Obama mentioned -- definitively -- that al Qaeda was no longer in Afghanistan, but instead is in Pakistan. In addition, he said the United States’ job in Afghanistan is to “stabilize” the country. When you combine that with Hillary Clinton’s statement on “Meet the Press” (“We're going to expect more from the Afghan government going forward, and we've got some very specific asks that we will be making"), you get an idea of the administration’s framework on Afghanistan. They want to have a trigger that enables them to pull out on the Afghan government, if it doesn’t meet certain conditions.
*** Gitmo politics: First came the conservative furor at the Obama administration’s decision late last week to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and others in federal court in New York. Now comes their reaction to the news that some Gitmo detainees might be housed at the Thomson Correctional Facility in Illinois, which Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D) are expected to announce at 2:00 pm ET. Per NBC’s Edgar Zuniga Jr., Illinois GOP Reps. Donald Manzullo, Mark Kirk, and Peter Roskam will hold a press conference at 11:30 am ET to oppose any such transfer (despite all the other murderers, rapists, and child molesters who already populate the state’s prisons...).
*** Deadline Fatigue? Speaking of Gitmo, White House adviser David Axelrod suggested on CNN yesterday that the U.S. might not meet the deadline to close that prison facility. “We believe we are going to substantially meet the deadline. We may not hit it on the date, but we will close Guantanamo. And we are making good progress toward doing that.” Just think of the other deadlines that the Obama administration has now missed -- on health care and Afghanistan. Missing these deadlines, separately, is understandable. But they are accumulating, and that can lead to a trend.
*** Palin-tology: Even with the president in China, with the Gitmo news, with Afghanistan, with the state of the U.S. economy, and with one of the biggest legislative fights in memory (over health care), the story that's been mesmerizing the political world over the past few days is ... Sarah Palin. This is a testament to her political strength (the buzz and curiosity that surround her) and her political weakness (that she remains a deeply polarizing figure, even within her own party). Indeed, in last month's NBC/WSJ poll, 52% of Republicans had a positive opinion about Palin, compared with 28% of independents and 9% of Democrats who said that. As GOP political consultant Mike Murphy, who isn’t a Palin fan, told First Read: “She is polarizing within the GOP and totally unpopular outside the party. And that is not a recipe to get into the White House.” Palin’s interview with Oprah airs today. Her book officially hits the stores tomorrow. And she begins her book tour on Wednesday.
*** Like sands through an hourglass…: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that John McCain has specifically asked his former aides not to do interviews rebutting Palin's charges in her book -- to avoid escalating the feud between her and the campaign staff. Most are complying with his wishes, hoping it will die down. But in a conversation with Mitchell last night, one key player targeted by Palin in the book points to emails on Huffington Post that contradict Palin's version of several instances. The former McCain campaign aide, who asked not to be named, told Mitchell: "It is unrecognizable at every instance. There is not one truthful account as it relates to any conversation I ever had with her." Regarding the accusation that the campaign tried to hire a nutritionist to make her eat, two former aides said that the campaign was getting media calls and calls from higher-ups on the plane that Palin wasn't eating enough and had lost too much weight. There was concern about her health and stamina heading into the vice presidential debate.
*** The Young and The Restless: In addition, former McCain (and Bush White House aide) Nicolle Wallace tells Mitchell that the conversations Palin recounts in her book involving the Katie Couric interview, Palin's campaign wardrobe, or any of the other allegations involving Wallace never happened. "I never saw her take a note and she never contacted me for any fact-checking, nor did anyone on her behalf." Wallace says, "It's just fabricated." She adds that the same campaign staff whom Palin disparages in her book as idiots prepared Palin for a hugely successful convention speech and initial rollout, a good initial interview with Charlie Gibson, and a passable debate performance.
*** Taking on the Stupak Amendment: Turning to health care, the debate over abortion continues. At 10:15 am ET, the Center for Reproductive Rights will hold a press conference at the National Press Club to unveil a TV ad criticizing the anti-abortion Stupak amendment that was added to the House health-care bill.
*** Get out of my dreams … and into my car: Finally, Republicans are pouncing on this news today: While saying it’s making progress, GM reported losing $1.2 billion in the 3rd Q. “Today’s release of General Motors’ financial results is further proof that President Obama’s economic experiments are wrong for America,” RNC Chairman Michael Steele said in a statement. “Sadly, GM has not only failed to turn a profit since the president poured $50 billion of the taxpayers’ dollars into GM’s bankruptcy restructuring, but it has actually lost $1.2 billion.” That said, GM “will accelerate its repayment of bailout funds to the U.S. government, the automaker announced on Monday morning,” The Hill writes. “The company will pay back its outstanding $6.7 billion in debt to the government in quarterly installments, allowing it to finish repaying its loans four years earlier than had been required.”
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“Politely but firmly pressing for greater freedoms on China's own turf, President Barack Obama spoke against censorship Monday, saying tough criticisms of political leaders should be allowed and the free flow of information on the Internet ‘should be encouraged,’” the AP says.
The New York Times : “For Mr. Obama, who has been taking pains to strike a conciliatory note during his first visit to China, it was a rare challenge to Chinese authorities, but expressed in Mr. Obama’s now familiar nuance. Responding to a question that came via the Internet during a town hall meeting with Shanghai students -- ‘Should we be able to use Twitter freely?’ -- Mr. Obama first l started to answer in the slightly off-the-point manner which he often uses when he is gathering his thoughts. ‘Well, first of all, let me say that I have never used Twitter,’ he said. ‘My thumbs are too clumsy to type in things on the phone.’”
“But then he appeared to gather confidence. ‘I should be honest, as president of the United States, there are times where I wish information didn’t flow so freely because then I wouldn’t have to listen to people criticizing me all the time,’ he said. But, he added, ‘because in the United States, information is free, and I have a lot of critics in the United States who can say all kinds of things about me, I actually think that that makes our democracy stronger and it makes me a better leader because it forces me to hear opinions that I don’t want to hear.’”
White House adviser David Axelrod slapped back against Rudy Giuliani, who criticized the decision to try KSM in New York City. "When the 20th 9/11 bomber [Zacarias Moussaoui] was tried in Virginia, in a civilian court, and convicted, Mayor Giuliani testified in that case and he heralded the outcome," Axelrod said.
The AP writes, “The United States is limiting its goals in Afghanistan and demanding better accountability from that country's underperforming leader, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday, and she tied additional U.S. civilian help to results from Kabul.”
“Politely but firmly pressing for greater freedoms on
China's own turf, President Barack Obama spoke against censorship Monday,
saying tough criticisms of political leaders should be allowed and the free
flow of information on the Internet ‘should be encouraged,’” the AP says.New York Times : “For Mr. Obama, who has been taking
pains to strike a conciliatory note during his first visit to China, it was a
rare challenge to Chinese authorities, but expressed in Mr. Obama’s now
familiar nuance. Responding to a question that came via the Internet during a
town hall meeting with Shanghai students -- ‘Should we be able to use Twitter
freely?’ -- Mr. Obama first l started to answer in the slightly off-the-point
manner which he often uses when he is gathering his thoughts. ‘Well, first of
all, let me say that I have never used Twitter,’ he said. ‘My thumbs are too
clumsy to type in things on the phone.’” slapped back against Rudy
Giuliani, who criticized the decision to try KSM in New York City. "When
the 20th 9/11 bomber [Zacarias Moussaoui] was tried in Virginia, in a civilian
court, and convicted, Mayor Giuliani testified in that case and he heralded the
outcome," Axelrod said.AP writes, “The United States is limiting its goals in
Afghanistan and demanding better accountability from that country's
underperforming leader, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sunday,
and she tied additional U.S. civilian help to results from Kabul.”
"Even though he doesn’t yet have an official cost estimate or promises of a filibuster-proof vote, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is confident he’ll be able to kick off debate on a massive health care reform measure before Thanksgiving,” Roll Call writes. “Reid wanted to get the ball rolling on the overhaul early this week armed with a Congressional Budget Office analysis, but because that CBO score didn’t come on Friday as he had hoped, Democratic aides said the Majority Leader is prepared to push back his timeline. Reid may keep the Senate in session into the week of Thanksgiving in order to overcome one of the biggest hurdles facing the bill: producing the 60 votes needed to beat back a GOP filibuster that would prevent the bill from even being considered on the Senate floor.”
Congressional lobbyist Billy Moore takes a smart look at the remaining calendar for Congress. “Congress has 26 legislative days remaining in 2009, if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid conducts votes every day until Thanksgiving eve. Congress has 21 days if they take Thanksgiving week off. In that time, Democratic leaders want floor debates on health care reform, financial services regulatory overhaul, seven appropriations bills, extension of expiring tax and transportation programs, inheritance tax reform, a debt limit increase (perhaps with a deficit commission), postponing a cut in Medicare physician fees and confirmation of dozens of Administration and judicial nominees. As the calendar ticks toward Christmas, some of the agenda will be pushed to the 2010 program, joining deferred initiatives on immigration, energy and global warming.”
This is interesting: “Even as drug makers promise to support Washington’s health care overhaul by shaving $8 billion a year off the nation’s drug costs after the legislation takes effect, the industry has been raising its prices at the fastest rate in years,” the New York Times front-pages.
"Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) went after the Associated Press on Sunday, accusing them of engaging in ‘opposition research’ in fact-checking her forthcoming book,” The Hill writes. “Palin blasted the AP's fact check of her new book, ‘Going Rogue,’ which says the former governor had gone rogue with some of the facts.”
Here’s the AP’s fact check : “Sarah Palin's new book reprises familiar claims from the 2008 presidential campaign that haven't become any truer over time. Ignoring substantial parts of her record if not the facts, she depicts herself as a frugal traveler on the taxpayer's dime, a reformer without ties to powerful interests and a politician roguishly indifferent to high ambition. Palin goes adrift, at times, on more contemporary issues, too. She criticizes President Barack Obama for pushing through a bailout package that actually was achieved by his Republican predecessor George W. Bush -- a package she seemed to support at the time.”
By the way, Hillary Clinton said on Meet the Press that she "absolutely would look forward to having coffee" with the former Alaska Governor and veep candidate, the senator said on ‘Meet The Press’ Sunday. ‘I'm ready to have a cup of coffee,’ Clinton told host David Gregory. 'I've never met her, and I think it would be very interesting to sit down and talk with her. Maybe I can make a case on some of the issues that we disagree on,' Clinton said."
Stu Rothenberg on how the political environment has turned against Democrats. “The gubernatorial results should remind us that context matters and that over the past six months, the political context has changed dramatically,” he writes, adding: “Now it will be the GOP who can push the ‘culture of corruption’ argument that Democrats used so successfully in the recent past. Now Republicans will complain about high unemployment numbers, about causalities in Afghanistan and the administration’s foreign policy and about the government’s inability to get H1N1 flu shots to the American public. Moreover, as we are already seeing with health care reform, the internal contradictions of the Democratic Party are becoming apparent. For the past year, the national media have been focused on internal Republican divisions. But now, a fracturing in the Democratic ranks is likely to give plenty of fodder for journalists, columnists and talking heads. This is likely to further erode Democratic poll numbers.”
MASSACHUSETTS: Passion or hot-headed? The Boston Globe on Michael Capuano: “In fact, numerous words were exchanged but they were all of the heated variety. And in the end, Brown filed an application for a criminal complaint -- dismissed a month later for a lack of evidence -- alleging that Capuano ‘threatened to kill my dog and then me while holding an aluminum bat.’
Meanwhile, “Stephen Pagliuca, a Democratic candidate for Senate, is blitzing the television airwaves with ads declaring he will be immune to the powerful influence that special interests and their well-connected lobbyists wield over Congress because he won’t take their donations. But Bain Capital Partners, where he has been a senior managing partner and made his huge fortune, has spent millions to hire high-powered Washington lobbyists to protect its special interests on Capitol Hill.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Athena Jones
While the president joked that he is not a member of the Twitterati, it's no surprise that the man who harnessed the Internet to help raise money and rally supporters during last year's historic election believes in the power of the web. In one of the most interesting exchanges of the roughly hourlong event, Obama made a point of denouncing government censorship and argued that "the more open we are, the more we can communicate."
"Let me say that I have never used Twitter," the president said when asked whether he was familiar with the so-called "firewall", a method the Chinese government uses to block access to certain web sites, and whether the Chinese should be able to use Twitter freely.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Mr. Obama said he's still confident that a new treaty can get done by the end of year, though, keep in mind agreeing to a treaty and getting it through the Senate are two different things.
According to senior officials, the two were to spend a lion's share of their time together discussing START. However, the president, after the meeting told reporters that they did talk about Iran and Afghanistan as well.
CONTINUED >>
From various NBC News producers/writers
NBC News has obtained an advanced copy of Sarah Palin's new book, "Going Rogue: An American Life" Below are some of the fascinating excerpts, thanks to the tireless efforts of the fine folks working the late shift. The excerpts are presented in order as they appear in the book.
-- On Carter and Reagan : "I had followed the Iran hostage crisis and remember wondering why President Jimmy Carter didn't act more decisively. From my high schooler's perspective, I thought the question was, Why did he allow America to be humiliated and pushed around? The new president being sworn in radiated confidence and optimism. The enemies of freedom took notice. In years to come people would ask, What did he have that Carter didn't? To me the answer was obvious. He had a steel spine.
-- On giving birth for the first time : "I was quite a cocky young mom-to-be. I'd gone through the requisite childbirth class (we were going to use the Lamaze method), and, being an athlete used to pain, I figured, How tough could giving birth be? Oh. My. Gosh. I thought I was going to die. In fact, I began to pray that I would die. . . . I gritted my teeth and willed myself not to scream."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd
The leaders of Australia and Mexico, both members of APEC, hastily organized the breakfast and encouraged Denmark's Prime Minister, Lars Rasmussen, to fly to Singapore to give the APEC leaders a briefing on the progress (or lack thereof) being made in advance of the December climate summit in Copenhagen.
In short, it appears expectations for something concrete have been dramatically ratcheted back.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd SINGAPORE -- The president is not having an easy time connecting his travels in Asia with the current domestic economic angst gripping the nation. But that doesn't mean he isn't trying. According to prepared remarks the president was to deliver to the Asaign Pacific Economic Conference Sunday morning in Singapore, the president touched on the growing deficit as well as the jobs issue.
(BTW, the reason I have to cite "prepared remarks" is no U.S. editorial presence was allowed into this meeting so we all have to rely on the White House speech transcript).
On the deficit, he was to tell Asian leaders he plans to "reign in our government's debt."
"Like many of you, we passed a measure to stimulate demand that has temporarily enlarged our deficit. And this was on top of the trillion dollar deficit we faced upon taking office. But as the economy recovers, I intend to take serious steps to reduce America’s long-term deficit – because debt-driven growth cannot fuel America’s long-term prosperity."
The deficit continues to be a growing issue of concern according to recent polls so it should be no surprise the president is rhetorically tackling it. The question is what does he do beyond talk? One can see some sort of deficit "summit" coming or special commission. But can he truly start tackling the debt problem without tackling Social Security or defense spending or, well, taxes? The deficit for both parties is an easy issue to rhetorically show concern on, but actually reducing it means doing something that will be unpopular with at least half the country.
CONTINUED >>
THE WEEK AHEAD: The Week Ahead: Obama in Asia, Palin's seven-day, 13-city book tour kicks off, The Republican governors get together, Joe Biden's birthday. Secretary Clinton to Meet the Press
From NBC's Ken Strickland If you read somewhere that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could start the healthcare debate on Tuesday, here's the real deal: it's technically possible, but highly unlikely.
Reid says he'll bring the bill to the floor next week. But with the bill not even written and with no cost estimate for it from the Congressional Budget Office, that may seem like an overly optimistic view.
Just as important as CBO estimate and the bill language is the still-unresolved issue of whether Reid can muster the 60 votes he'll need to bring the bill to the floor.
But it's worth noting that Reid has taken a significant step that COULD start the debate on Tuesday if all the stars in the sky align.
On Tuesday of last week, before the Veterans Day recess, Reid started the procedural process to get the bill on the floor. (Avert your gaze here if you don't have the stomach for process.)
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell 's longtime friend and former chief of staff, Mark Salter, has just issued a statement about Palin 's accusations.
Salter, who co-authored McCain's books, defends Nicolle Wallace's actions throughout the campaign. Palin suggests in the book that Wallace was a double-agent for Couric because Wallace had worked at CBS News prior to the campaign.
From Salter:
"After we had been criticized in the press for a lack of disciplined messaging earlier in the campaign when we provided frequent and unscheduled access to the candidate, we felt it necessary to adopt the same deliberativeness and discipline employed by our opponents and rely less on impromptu press conferences with our traveling press, and more on interviews arranged in advance so our candidates would have the same opportunity our opponents enjoyed to discuss and prepare for the interview.
"Approximately one week elapsed from Governor Palin's nomination to her first major press interview, the first in a series of major interviews Governor Palin did. Those interviews were discussed and agreed to by senior members of the campaign staff in consultation with the candidates. Nicolle Wallace, along with others, was tasked with helping the Governor prepare for some of her interviews. She did not decide which interview requests the candidates would accept. Nor was she tasked with securing the candidates' agreement. Those decisions were made by campaign management in consultation with the candidates. Campaign management and the candidates agreed to multi segment interviews so the Governor would maintain a presence in the media while she was in debate prep. And to the best of my knowledge, any interviews the Governor had with the individuals she referred to were approved and arranged by the campaign management with her agreement."
From NBC's Michelle Perry According to a spokesman for "Playgirl" magazine, Levi Johnston said
Sarah Palin was "full of it" to "Playgirl" editor-in-chief Nicole Caldwell in an interview in the upcoming magazine. He said, "You could tell by her laugh she was full of it" and that her invite on Oprah to Thanksgiving dinner was "a nice gesture but she didn't mean it" and if he went it'd be "awkward."
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell John McCain told a news conference that he just got the Palin book, but hasnt had a chance to read it.
He was, however, aware of her criticism of some of the McCain campaign staff. He said that in every losing campaign, there are always going to be some people critical of what occured.
At both the news conference and a town hall, McCain came out firing on the decision to bring Khalid Sheik Muhammed to New York.
"I strongly, strongly vigorously disagree with the decision to try him in court," McCain said. "These are war criminals and should be tried in a military court."
He also referred to Major Hasan as "an insane terrorist" and said the shooting was "an act of terrorism."
"We must not allow political correctness to interfere with the lives and safety of our men and women in the military," said McCain, who is up for re-election next year.
It was a spirited town hall -- with 300 to 350 people jammed into a county adminstrative auditorium -- and some challenging McCain for his vote on the TARP funds.
From NBC's Sue Kroll Hillary Rodham Clinton said today in Manila, if she could change any decision in the past it would be on healthcare.
Speaking to university students at town hall style event Clinton said, " I wish that we had taken a different approach or been more successful back in 1993 and 1994. Hindsight is 20/20."
Clinton has returned to Singapore, where she will meet with the Foreign Minister tomorrow and join President Obama for the meeting of APEC leaders
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Harry Reid (D), the Senate majority leader, frames up the argument he'll make as Election Day 2010 nears -- (1) That he's "America's Most Powerful Senator", and (2) As a result, he has gotten lots done for the state.
An ad like this shows one aspect of the difficulty in running against Reid -- that he'll spend LOTS of money and do whatever it takes. He's going to need to with his poll numbers being what they are.
The Nevada Senate race ranks as First Read's No. 2 Senate race to watch next year.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Mike Viqueira
"These terrorists planned and executed the mass murder of thousands of innocent Americans. Treating them like common criminals is unconscionable," said GOP Sen. John Cornyn . "The attacks of September 11th were an act of war. Reverting to a pre-9/11 approach to fighting terrorism and bringing these dangerous individuals onto U.S. soil needlessly compromises the safety of all Americans."
House Minority Leader John Boehner adds: "The possibility that Khalid Sheik Mohammed and his co-conspirators could be found 'not guilty' due to some legal technicality just blocks from Ground Zero should give every American pause."
And here's Rep. Buck McKeon , the top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee: "By choosing to prosecute these terrorists in our domestic criminal system, the President has revealed that he views the terrorist attacks on New York City and the nation's capital as a crime-not as an act of war. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and his cohorts violated the law of war and should be prosecuted in a war tribunal."
*** UPDATE ***
*** UPDATE 2 *** NBC's Ken Strickland adds that McCain and Jeff Sessions hit Obama:
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Here comes Sarah Palin : It took advanced excerpts of her upcoming interview with Oprah, plus the AP and now Drudge getting their hands on her new book, to move Palin-palooza from next week’s story to today’s. According to the AP, Palin criticizes CBS’ Katie Couric over the infamous Couric-Palin interview; she takes issue with ABC’s Charlie Gibson; and she settles old scores with the McCain campaign. Yet the last thing the Republican Party needs right now is a look back at the tumult and drama of 2008. Just when the party is enjoying its first good news in five years, here comes Sarah Palin. The next week is going to be about her and how she views the world. And it's not the image some in the Republican Party would like to broadcast, especially now when it appears they have an opportunity to slowly win back the trust of swing voters. At a minimum, Palin is a distraction for the GOP as it attempts to build on Election 2009 success. Worst case, she sets back efforts the party is making to appeal to swing voters again.
*** And here comes Khalid Sheikh Mohammed : At 11:00 am ET at the Justice Department, Attorney General Eric Holder will announce that accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other 9/11 detainees now in Guantanamo Bay will be brought to the U.S. to stand trial in federal court in New York, NBC’s Pete Williams reports. None of the detainees covered by today's announcement can be brought to the U.S. for at least 45 days. (A recently passed federal law requires the administration to give Congress at least that much notice before bringing any GITMO detainees to the US for trial.) Williams adds that Holder faced a court-imposed deadline of next Monday to decide what to do with these five detainees and four others, all of whom had already been charged and scheduled for trial before military commissions at GITMO.
*** Obama’s day in Japan : Meanwhile, in his joint press conference with the Japanese Prime Minister, President Obama said he didn't want to "preempt" Holder’s announcement later today on the trial of KSM, but said he was "absolutely convinced Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will be subject to the most exacting demands of justice," per NBC’s Scott Foster. The president added, "The American people insist on it, and my administration insists on it.” Obama also was asked about his Afghanistan strategy decision, and he explained the timing is "not a measure of data or information missing," but instead on making sure a coordinate and effective strategy is in place. Obama said he recognizes there are critics of his deliberation, but he argued "they tend not to be folks who I think are directly involved in what's happening in Afghanistan." He said the decision would be made "soon" in a transparent way that leaves the Afghan people "to be in a position to provide their own security." Obama has already ended his day in Japan. Later tonight (Eastern Time in the U.S.), Obama meets with U.S. embassy personnel, meets the emperor and empress at the Imperial Palace, and has lunch with them.
*** Craig out, Bauer in : As it turns out, the White House official who had been responsible for the administration’s GITMO policies is now leaving. As NBC first reported last night , the long-rumored departure of White House Counsel Greg Craig has become official today with a statement from President Obama. Craig will be replaced by veteran Democratic Party campaign attorney Bob Bauer. This is the highest-level departure in the Obama White House this year. In 2008, Bauer served as lead counsel for Obama's campaign, and he is married to outgoing White House communications director Anita Dunn. Among the reasons for Dunn's decision to leave was so that both of them weren't working in the administration at the same time for their own family situation. Craig had a rocky tenure, beginning with the politically charged decision to shut down GITMO. It is not yet known when this change will become official, but it’s likely to occur before the end of the year.
*** Ouch : It’s not quite as devastating as the ’07 oppo-research hit on John Edwards’ $400 haircut (which the Obama camp uncovered, per David Plouffe’s new book). But it’s pretty close: Politico reports that the Republican National Committee’s insurance plan covers elective abortions. “Federal Election Commission Records show the RNC purchases its insurance from Cigna. Two sales agents for the company said that the RNC’s policy covers elective abortion.” Late last night, the RNC sent out a statement saying that Chairman Michael Steele had instructed the party’s director of administration to opt out of any coverage for elective abortions. "Money from our loyal donors should not be used for this purpose,” Steele said. “I don't know why this policy existed in the past, but it will not exist under my administration. Consider this issue settled."
*** Ouch, Part II : While the RNC had to deal with that abortion hit, the Obama White House and Democrats had to deal with their own bad news yesterday. “The US government deficit hit a record for October as the new budget year began where the old one ended: with the government awash in red ink,” the AP reported. “The Treasury Department said yesterday that the deficit for October totaled $176.4 billion, the fifth-largest monthly deficit ever and the 13th straight month to show a deficit - another record.” Jobs, Jobs, Jobs : Yesterday, before departing for Alaska and then Tokyo, President Obama announced that he would be convening a jobs summit next month at the White House. “We all know that there are limits to what government can and should do, even during such difficult times,” he said. “But we have an obligation to consider every additional, responsible step that we can [take] to encourage and accelerate job creation in this country. And that's why, in December, we'll be holding a forum at the White House on jobs and economic growth. We'll gather CEOs and small business owners, economists and financial experts, as well as representatives from labor unions and nonprofit groups, to talk about how we can work together to create jobs and get this economy moving again.” Clearly, there’s a concern that the president isn’t focused enough on the jobs issue.
*** Sanford vs. Graham : Politico has this interesting nugget: Some South Carolina Republicans say they prefer Mark Sanford -- even with all his woes and warts -- to Lindsey Graham. “County Republican Party Chairman Phillip Bowers agreed that among South Carolina Republicans, Graham has less fans than Sanford—despite the fact that the governor faces the threat of impeachment. ‘Most people are still on board with Mark Sanford. From a fiscal standpoint, Mark is still in the game,’ Bowers said. ‘There is a lot of frustration with Lindsey right now.’” More: "One high ranking state Republican official said despite Sanford’s personal indiscretions, activists continue to view him as ideologically in sync with the party. 'They still understand what Mark Sanford is about, they are just disappointed by the girl,' the official said. 'Lindsey just continues to anger the base. He could calm them down, but Lindsey doesn’t have the patience or lack of ego to make the effort.'" And if it’s Sunday… : “Meet the Press” this Sunday has Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, plus a discussion on education with Education Secretary Arne Duncan, Newt Gingrich, and Al Sharpton.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 25 days
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The Washington Post on Obama’s day in Japan: “Obama appeared for a short news conference in with newly elected Japanese prime minister Yukio Hatoyama, a few hours after arriving in Tokyo for the start of a week-long trip to Asia. The trip will span four countries and is Obama's first to the region as president. During a 90-minute meeting with Hatoyama at the Kantei, the Japanese equivalent of the White House, the two world leaders discussed climate change, Afghanistan and nuclear proliferation. Both leaders exchanged warm praise for one another, embracing the close relationship of the two countries. They minimized their differences, such as the location of a Marine Corps airfield on Okinawa, emphasizing instead their hopes for peace and stability in the region.”
The New York Times : "President Obama, seeking to mend fences with America’s most important Asian ally, agreed on Friday to reopen talks on the contentious issue of the relocation of an American Marine base in Okinawa. The decision to establish what Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described as a high-level working group represents a concession for the Obama administration, less than a month after Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates appeared to have shut the door on reopening the issue, which was agreed to in 2006."
More: "American relations with Japan are at their most contentious since the trade wars of the 1990s. Japan’s newly elected Democratic Party has been blunt about seeking a more “equal” relationship with the United States, and Japanese officials say they now intend to focus more on cementing their relationships with other Asian nations."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post on Palin’s new book: “The rollout for former Alaska governor Sarah Palin's highly anticipated and score-settling memoir began Thursday with all the orchestrated stagecraft, wild accusations, inconvenient leaks and media fascination that characterized her campaign as Sen. John McCain's running mate during the 2008 presidential race.”
Sarah Palin blamed the McCain campaign for her poor interview with CBS's Katie Couric, the New York Daily News writes. "A CBS source close to Couric responded last night, 'The interviews speak for themselves.'" She even blames the McCain campaign for what she says was their incorrect perception that it was a good interview. "I'm thinking, if you thought that was a good interview, I don't know what a bad interview is," Palin told Oprah Winfrey.Washington Post : “‘John McCain offered her the opportunity of a lifetime, and during the campaign it seems that, for all of her mistakes, she is searching for people to blame,’ said one former senior official in the McCain campaign. ‘We don't need to go through this again.’”
The New York Times profiles the three right-hand men -- Ted Kaufman, Paul Kirk, and George LeMieux – who are serving in their boss’s old Senate seat (Kaufman, Kirk) or who were appointed by their boss (LeMieux) to serve in the Senate. “[T]he three have the makings of a new caucus. All made clear they would not seek election to their new Senate seat — though Mr. LeMieux, at age 40, is keeping his options beyond 2010 open. None have ever held elected public office on their own. And all have had to contend with the impression they are seat warmers, with Mr. LeMieux holding down the fort for Mr. Crist, the man who appointed him, while Mr. Kaufman was seen as a stand-in until Mr. Biden’s son Beau was ready to run next year.”
First Afghanistan, now climate change. "After a quarter century in Washington, [John] Kerry is emerging as a critical environmental dealmaker. He is leading the US Senate delegation that will try to broker a worldwide climate change agreement and is chief sponsor of a massive global warming bill in the Senate, a measure that was all but buried until Kerry forged an unlikely partnership with Republican Lindsey O. Graham of South Carolina last month."
"The healthcare battle appears to be helping Republicans running for the Senate," The Hill notes. "Two Quinnipiac polls released Thursday show the leading GOP candidates in Connecticut and Ohio growing their leads. Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) leads Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), 49-38, and former Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) has opened his first leads over two potential Democratic opponents." Roll Call notes. Van Hollen said at the Bloomberg Washington Summit: "People who think this is a redux of 1994 are totally misreading the current situation."
COLORADO : State Rep. Scott Tipton threw his hat into the race for Colorado's 3rd Congressional District seat, currently held by Democrat John Salazar. Tipton said "he decided to get in for certain after Saturday's U.S. House vote on the health-reform bill, which he called 'the straw that broke the camel's back' and which Salazar supported."
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From NBC's Chuck Todd Greg Craig will likely be made official tomorrow. Craig will be replaced by veteran Democratic Party campaign attorney Bob Bauer . This is the highest-level departure in the Obama White House this year.
In 2008, Bauer served as lead counsel for Obama's campaign.
Bauer is married to outgoing White House communications director Anita Dunn . Among the reasons for Dunn's decision to leave was so that both of them weren't working in the administration at the same time for their own family situation.
Craig has had a rocky tenure, beginning with the politically charged decision to shut down GITMO.
It is not yet known when this change will become official, but it likely will be before the end of the year.
From NBC's Mark Murray Sarah Palin alleges that the McCain campaign gave her a $500,000 bill to pay for the campaign vetting her for the VP nod. She also makes the charge that the McCain camp said they would have paid all the bills had they won, but since they lost, the bills were her responsibility.
A senior McCain campaign official tells First Read that Palin's charge isn't true. The $500,000 charge came from Palin attorney Thomas Van Flein, and much of it had to do with Van Flein's work on the infamous Troopergate investigation that began before McCain selected her as his VP.
This senior McCain campaign official says they considered the $500,000 bill from Palin's lawyer to be exorbitant -- plus, even if they wanted to, they couldn't use their general-election funds to pay for it (remember that McCain accepted some $84 million in federal funds for the general election).
"Everyone thought it was ridiculous," the senior McCain official tells First Read.*** UPDATE ***
Marc Ambinder has more. "The McCain campaign footed the bill for Art Culvahouse's investigation of Palin before she was elected. Palin was urged by campaign lawyers to set up a legal defense fund to pay for the investigations and ethics complaints that had nothing to do with her presidential bid. 'I can confirm that she was not billed for any vetting costs by the campaign,' said Trevor Potter, the campaign's general counsel. 'I do not know if she was billed by her own lawyer for his assistance to her in the vetting process, but from the excerpt that has been read to me by the AP, it sounds as if that is what she is describing.'"
From NBC's Mark Murray Associated Press is the first news organization out of the gate to read Sarah Palin's new book.
According to its write-up, Palin blasts Katie Couric over that infamous Couric-Palin interview.
McCain campaign, alleging that they gave her a legal bill for her vetting, and that they also kept her family members away from the stage on Election Night.
Palin laments that she wasn't allowed to bring up loads of family members to the stage while McCain gave his election night concession speech, the vice presidential candidate having found out minutes earlier that she wouldn't be permitted to give her own speech.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Nancy Pelosi endorsed Rep. Mike Capuano in the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts.
"[Capuano] and Pelosi are to appear together in Boston Friday morning to formalize the endorsement," writes the Boston Globe . "While Pelosi is popular with Democrats, she is a target of Republicans and conservatives. So while her backing could help Capuano, particularly against Attorney General Martha Coakley, in the Dec. 8 Democratic primary, it could hurt him among Republicans and independents if he wins the nomination and moves to the Jan. 19 special election."
In a statement, Pelosi praised Capuano's health care vote as "courageous." Remember, Coakley said she would have voted against it, because of the Stupak Amendment. Capuano at first sharply criticized Coakley for that. But the next day, he backtracked.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Sue Kroll Clinton backing the increase of more troops.
Kelly replied, "Ambassador Eikenberry has been providing this kind of advice and analysis to the president and secretary since he arrived."
A senior State Department official told reporters that Eikenberry sends messages and memos to the president and Secretary Clinton on a daily basis.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro President George W. Bush , in his first open-to-the press appearance, said that as the world's economies recover, they should resist the temptation to replace free markets with government spending.
Bush said he acted to funnel billions to banks because of a crisis situation. His action, he said, prevented a worldwide Depression.
(Full quotes to come.)
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Andrew Gross adds Bush's quotes: "The decision last fall was one of the most difficult of my presidency," Bush said in a speech on his vision for his presidential institute at Southern Methodist University. "I went against my free-market instincts and approved a temporary government intervention to unfreeze the credit markets so that we could avoid a major global Depression.
"As the world recovers, we are going to face a temptation to replace the risk-and-reward model of the private sector with the blunt instruments of government spending and control. History shows that the greater threat to prosperity is not too little government involvement, but too much."
Bush has also agreed to a University of Virginia project that will examine his presidency over the next five years. Bush and other administration officials will be interviewed.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray The 60 Plus Association, a conservative seniors group whose national spokesman is Pat Boone, is launching a $1.5 million ad campaign targeting 15 Democratic House members who voted for the health-care legislation that passed on Saturday.
The TV ad argues that the bill cuts Medicare by $400 million, raises taxes on small businesses, and raises insurance premiums.
The AFL-CIO, which supports the legislation, quickly responded to the ad with a fact-check. It contends that none of the Medicare savings and cuts comes from reducing seniors' benefits; that only the wealthiest of Americans will be taxed in the bill and that many small businesses are exempt from the mandate to insure workers; and that the bill would cut the deficit by $100 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
Here are the eight Dem members the 60 Plus Association is targeting with TV ads: Snyder (AR), Donnelly (IN), Ellsworth (IN), Hill (IN), Pomeroy (ND), Titus (NV), Perriello (VA), and Connolly (VA).
Here are the seven Dem members it's targeting with radio ads: Berry (AR), Klein (FL), Michaud (ME), Etheridge (NC), Hodes (NH), Dahlkemper (PA), and Carney (PA).
*** UPDATE *** Greg Sargent's blog notes that the president of the firm who created the TV ad above is Larry McCarthy, who created the infamous Willie Horton ad in the '88 presidential election. The blog also notes the 60 Plus group backed George W. Bush's Social Security privatization plans.
From NBC's Ken Strickland The Congressional Budget Office score for the Senate health care bill won't come today and is likely next week.
From NBC’s Libby Leist Today in the Philippines,
Hillary Clinton was asked about
Ambassador Eikenberry 's cables expressing concern about a troop buildup in Afghanistan before
President Karzai addresses corruption issues.
The Secretary of State would not share what advice she has given the president about troop numbers, but she spoke about the need for Karzai to "take action" to address corruption.
"We're looking to President Karzai, as he forms a new government, to take action that will demonstrate, not to the international community, but first and foremost to his own people, that his second term will respond to the needs that are so manifest,” Clinton said. “And I think that the corruption issue really goes to the heart of whether the people of Afghanistan feel that the government is on their side, is working for them.”
From NBC’s Andrea Mitchell Sen. Jack Reed acknowledged that Ambassador (and Retired General) Eikenberry 's warnings are in conflict with Gen. McChrstyal 's recommendations.
In other words, the President's handpicked top military man in the war zone is now being contradicted by the president's top diplomat in the country. The two men, in fact, have disagreed in the past when McChrystal reported to Eikenberry. Clearly, say most experts, this is not a sustainable situation.
In an interview at the Newseum at a conference hosted by Bloomberg News, Reed said the fact that two experienced military men reached different conclusions makes the President's job difficult, because if Afghanistan (Karzai) can’t provide local governance, then our additional troop deployments won’t be decisive.
CONTINUED >>
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell
The feisty former governor of Alaska is set to embark on a whirlwind campaign-style "Going Rogue" book tour that in its first week will take her to half a dozen battleground states.
Palin will make two to three stops a day traveling in a bus emblazoned with the cover of her book. The imagery and pace of her travel is almost certain to evoke images of an early presidential campaign foray, especially as she plans a December 6 visit to Iowa, site of the first in the nation presidential caucuses.
VIDEO: Oprah Tweets about Palin interview. The book is also likely to include some juicy tidbits about the drama inside the
McCain -Palin campaign. Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager, recently said nominating Palin in 2012 would be "catastrophic" for the GOP. Palin's advisors have indicated privately that there will be some score-settling in her autobiography.
"There's nothing we didn't talk about," Oprah Winfrey reported last night in a video linked to her Twitter account. "Lots of her supporters didn't think she should come here." Oprah said they talked about Palin's daughter Bristol's pregnancy, Levi Johnston, Palin's infant son Trigg, and the state of Palin's marriage. "It was really an interesting interview," Palin said.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Around the world in 8 days: Later this afternoon, President Obama departs on his latest big overseas trip -- a whirlwind eight-day, four-country journey that will take him to Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. His previous trips (to Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East) helped bolster his domestic image. But that wasn’t necessarily the case back in July (when he traveled to Russia and Italy) or last month (with his unsuccessful Olympics push in Copenhagen). The reason: Those trips came post-honeymoon and in the midst of the health-care debate and further concerns about the U.S. economy. While everyone focuses on Obama’s rough August, White House folks will privately tell you that the president’s poll numbers started coming down to earth in July right after that jaunt to Russia (in fact, our July NBC/WSJ poll showed his approval at 53%, down three points from June). This is maybe one reason why Obama’s Asia schedule is so jam-packed; you can really tell the White House wants him to get back ASAP.
*** Want to get away? Then again, maybe it’s not the worst thing that Obama is going to be thousands of miles and more than a dozen time zones away over the next week. First, the health-care debate in the Senate (over the public option and abortion) is going to be incredibly messy, as the sausage-making process always is. While the president effectively parachuted in over the weekend to help pass the House bill, note that involvement came at the end of the process -- not the middle, where the Senate currently is. Second, next week will be Palin-palooza, with her Oprah interview on Monday, her book going on sale Tuesday, and the book tour starting Wednesday. As we’ve pointed out before, Palin’s publicists picked a pretty good time for her book rollout. She’s going to have the political stage mostly to herself next week.
*** No rest for the weary: The president’s eight-day trip to Asia is going to be exhausting. Air Force One takes off at 9:50 am ET (but before then, Obama will deliver brief remarks on the economy at 9:15 am, in which he’ll announce hosting a jobs summit next month at the White House). He will then land at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, where he’ll meet with servicemembers and make remarks around 5:30 pm ET. Then it’s off to Japan, where he arrives around 2:00 am ET. He then spends the next six days in Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. Given how exhausting this trip will be -- for the president, his staff, and the members of the White House press corps -- it’s worth reminding everyone that Obama and many of his top aides have been working virtually non-stop over the past three years. When you add dealing with two wars, fixing an economy and trying to revamp the nation’s health-care system, you see how these guys could use a break. The Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach today touches on how the war in Afghanistan, in particular, has taken a toll on Obama. And as the exhaustion takes a toll on staff, how much of it is due to running into political problems which, in turn, saps whatever adrenaline they once had?
*** Calling Karzai’s bluff? On the subject of Afghanistan, NBC’s Mike Viqueira confirms that Obama is pushing for revisions to the plans presented that would clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government; he raised questions yesterday that could affect total number of troops that are sent to Afghanistan and the timeline for their presence in the war zone; his concerns center on the credibility of the Afghan government; and he wants to make clear that the U.S. commitment isn’t open-ended. To us, this seems like an attempt to call Karzai's bluff. The White House’s very public telegraph that we might not send troops -- or that we could leave A LOT sooner than Karzai thinks -- could be about squeezing him.
*** The Battleground book tour: Regarding Palin’s aforementioned book tour next week, it will take her to 13 cities -- 11 of which just happen to be in presidential battleground states (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida). What's more, nine of the 13 stops are in congressional districts won by McCain -- so she's reaching out to the GOP base. Palin starts her tour in Michigan, a battleground state the McCain campaign withdrew from the day of Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. The next day, Palin went -- you guessed it -- rogue and openly questioned the move. “I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try," she said back then. In a recent posting she made on her Facebook page announcing her book tour dates, Palin quipped: “Last year, I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I’m keeping that promise.” Also, per NBC’s Norah O’Donnell, Palin already has taped her appearance on Oprah. "There's nothing we didn't talk about," Oprah reported last night in a video linked to her Twitter . "Lots of her supporters didn't think she should come here." Oprah said they talked about Palin's daughter Bristol's pregnancy, Levi Johnston, Palin's infant son Trigg, and the state of Palin's marriage.
*** The GOP's purity tests? We understand why some conservatives are pillorying Charlie Crist and Olympia Snowe. After all, these two Republicans have not only worked with the Obama and the Democrats, they have a history of sometimes bucking their party. But many might not understand how Newt Gingrich (during NY-23), Sen. Bob Bennett (who's receiving a primary challenge from the right in Utah), and now Sen. Lindsey Graham have become targets. On Monday, the executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party voted unanimously to rebuke Graham “for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a ‘cap and trade’ energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens.” Ironically, just two years ago, the GOP's presidential front-runners were hardly pure conservatives -- John McCain favored liberalized immigration and opposed Bush's tax cuts, Mitt Romney had once supported abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research, and Rudy Giuliani backed gay rights and even moved in with a gay couple (and their pet Shih Tzu) after the breakup of his second marriage. Of course, some Republicans would argue that their lack of purity is the reason why they lost in 2008.
*** Bush back in the spotlight: Speaking of 2008… Former President George W. Bush will deliver his highest-profile speech since leaving office when he outlines his vision for his Bush Institute, which will be housed in the George W. Bush Presidential Center at Southern Methodist University. The event takes place in Dallas beginning at 3:00 pm ET.
*** Pushing back on Gallup: Yesterday, we mentioned a Gallup poll showing Republicans with a four-point advantage in the generic ballot. A Democratic pollster emails First Read that the party ID in the poll is a bit “whacky,” with Dems enjoying only a two-point party ID edge when you count leaners. Most national phone surveys, we’re reminded, have Democrats with a double-digit party ID lead. “In short, something doesn't seem quite right in the Gallup data,” the Dem pollster says. “I will grant that independents seem to be leaning toward the GOP on the generic ballot right now... But there is simply no way that Republicans and Democrats are essentially tied on party ID, and I think this calls their overall ballot numbers very much into question.”
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 26 days
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"President Barack Obama won't accept any of the Afghanistan war options before him without changes, a senior administration official said, as concerns soar over the ability of the Afghan government to secure its own country one day," the AP writes. "Obama's stance comes as his own ambassador in Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, is voicing strong dissent about a U.S. troop increase, according to a second administration official."
The Washington Post says Eikenberry “sent two classified cables to Washington in the past week expressing deep concerns about sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan until President Hamid Karzai's government demonstrates that it is willing to tackle the corruption and mismanagement that has fueled the Taliban's rise,” the Washington Post says. “Eikenberry's memos, sent as President Obama enters the final stages of his deliberations over a new Afghanistan strategy, illustrated both the difficulty of the decision and the deepening divisions within the administration's national security team.”
The New York Times : “Mr. Obama asked General Eikenberry about his concerns during the meeting on Wednesday, officials said, and raised questions about each of the four military options and how they might be tinkered with or changed. A central focus of Mr. Obama’s questions, officials said, was how long it would take to see results and be able to withdraw. ‘He wants to know where the off-ramps are,’ one official said.”
CONTINUED >>
The Hill's Youngman makes the point that with Obama in Asia, health reform is losing its best advocate at a critical time.
USA Today examines the abortion debate in the health-care bill. "How congressional leaders resolve the issue as the health care debate moves to the Senate could determine whether legislation becomes law this year or next. Kaiser Family Foundation's Alina Salganicoff calls it a 'hugely charged issue' fraught with 'huge unanswered questions.' Right to Life's Douglas Johnson predicts: 'This is going to be a long, drawn-out battle.'"
Politico : “Abortion-rights advocates are calling in the cavalry to help fight off an anti-abortion provision House Democratic leaders swallowed in order to win passage of their health care reform bill.”
"Labor unions pounced on the idea of a new jobs bill as a way to include several provisions that were cut out of the $787 billion stimulus package in order to placate a trio of Republican senators," The Hill writes. "A day after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told colleagues he plans to bring up such a measure ... the AFL-CIO began pressing lawmakers to include more fiscal aid for state and local governments and more spending on infrastructure."
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times previews George W. Bush’s speech in Dallas, which will outline his vision for his Bush Institute. “In a speech at Southern Methodist University, home of his future library and museum, the former president will kick off the new George W. Bush Institute as a forum for study and advocacy in four main areas: education, global health, human freedom and economic growth. Advisers said he hoped his institute would be more focused on producing results than many research organizations are. Mr. Bush will announce the appointment of the first five of two dozen scholars to be affiliated with the institute, which has already scheduled a half-dozen conferences for next year, according to organizers.”
Speaking of Texas… "Texas GOP Gov. Rick Perry accused President Barack Obama on Wednesday of 'punishing' Texas and being “hell-bent” on turning the United States into a socialist country,” Politico says. “Speaking at a luncheon for a Midland County Republican Women’s group, Perry said that ‘this is an administration hell-bent toward taking American towards a socialist country. And we all don’t need to be afraid to say that because that’s what it is.’”
Sen. Lindsey Graham “has been censured by local Republican Party officials in his home state of South Carolina,” the New York Times says. “The executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party voted unanimously on Monday to rebuke Mr. Graham ‘for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a ‘cap and trade’ energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens.’ Lin Bennett, the chairwoman of the local party, told the Charleston Post and Courier that party leaders were ‘fed up.’”
CONTINUED >>
Nathan Gonzales warns that the White House's desire to nationalize the 2010 elections could have consequences for Democrats: "[S]ome of the most vulnerable House Democrats represent districts won by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) last year, and those Members may not be all that excited about a national referendum on Obama’s job performance. Furthermore, nationalizing the 2010 midterms could throw fuel on an already inflamed GOP electorate.”
ARKANSAS: "Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), facing the prospect of a tough re-election bid next year, is under pressure from a liberal activist group to support a motion to proceed on health care reform legislation that is poised to hit the Senate floor next week. Lincoln has been on the fence on whether she would support a bill with a government-funded public insurance option." (Here's the ad .)
NEW JERSEY: "Now that the gubernatorial election is over, Republicans in Burlington, Ocean and Camden Counties are starting to focus on recruiting someone to take on freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) next year," PolitickerNJ reports. "There is a deep bench of potential candidates, but some Republicans have one in mind who could clear the field: Philadelphia Eagles legend Jon Runyan, a Mount Laurel resident."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly Paice First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden joined ServiceNation to express their support and gratitude for the nation's veterans, servicemembers, and their families. They also helped inaugurate the launch of ServiceNation's Mission Serve initiative that works to partner civilian and military service organizations across the country.
More than 50 organizations -- including Blue Star Families, Big Brothers and Big Sisters, Give an Hour, and Student Veterans of America -- have come together on a mission to serve, offering the opportunity to bridge the gap from military to civilian life for returning servicemembers by allowing them to apply their military skills to civilian service. Veteran and Chairman of Mission Serve Col. (Ret.) Robert Gordon described the initiative as "meaningfully integrating service to country with service to community."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Tom Ricks was unimpressed with President Obama 's Fort Hood speech:
I think President Obama missed a major opportunity at Fort Hood on Tuesday. His speech was fine was far as it went -- but that wasn't very far. It felt very conventional, a bit rote and obligational, like Reagan on an off day, doing a state fair stopoff on the way to the Western White House. What I had hoped for was a passionate, engaged address that tackled political correctness in the same was as did his race speech during the campaign, which I think was his high point during that time. It was a terrific speech that I think moved both him and the country forward. (Look inside the Army, Mr. President, and you will find "Ashleys" everywhere.)
Didn't happen. This was a treading water speech. "We must pay tribute to their stories?" That feels to me more like the work of a desperate speechwriter than an inspired, transformational president. I dunno, maybe transcendence just requires more time and effort than he has available right now. That's sad, because there are a lot of people in this country for whom the military looms about as large as race.
I really do think Obama still could be a great president, leading us toward "a more perfect union." But not the way he has been going lately. Time is passing ... Look at this speech. "History is filled with heroes"? That's high school stuff. I can remember when the knock on Obama's speeches was that they were too good.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Dan Balz , in his latest analysis piece, makes a point we've been thinking about here: the Pawlenty -Romney comparison:
Still, there is something Romneyesque in all this. Four years ago, Romney lurched to the right in preparation for his presidential candidacy. He did it on social issues, where his prior support for abortion and gay rights left him vulnerable on his right flank. Pawlenty has a consistent record of opposition to abortion and gay marriage. In his case, he appears to be catering to the conservative, populist anger on the right, which is challenging the party establishment and attacking Obama in sometimes extreme language.
It is an interesting point. Authenticity was Romney's biggest problem in 2008. There was no escaping his RECENT more liberal record and comments as governor of Massachusetts, a state with ZERO Republican members of Congress.
Pawlenty has a similar problem -- a Republican governor hailing from a blue state needing to tack to the right to win over conservatives. As Balz points out, Pawlenty's never been a red-meat guy, and his tone nowadays is A LOT different than right after the election. In addition to the missteps Balz outlines -- not the least of which was intimating that Olympia Snowe didn't belong in the party -- he was late to the game in NY-23, first saying he wasn't following what was happening there, then endorsing the Conservative Party candidate only after Sarah Palin did.
Next week, Pawlenty speaks again before the Republican Governors Association's annual conference in Austin, Texas. Last year, at the RGA, he delivered some tough medicine to his party and seemed to be trying to draw a distinction between himself and Palin.
Now, he's following her.
*** UPDATE *** A Pawlenty adviser responds in an e-mail to First Read: "Some people may assume that Governor Pawlenty's a moderate since he hails from such a liberal-leaning state, but in fact his record is consistently conservative. Since he ran as a conservative and governered as a conservative, it should be no surprise that he continues to lead as a conservative now. He feels strongly that President Obama and Congressional Democrats are leading the country in the wrong direction on health care and deficit spending, and he's going to say so."
*** UPDATE 2 ***
"'Our party is not big enough to be throwing people out' is a message he repeats everywhere he goes, including his 'Pretzels & Pints' event in DC, and his recent speech to Western CPAC. Most recently, Pawlenty's speech in Iowa included a strong call-to-action to attract more people into the Republican Party by doing a better job of communicationg our ideas, and relating our principles to the problems facing average folks."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro New York Times reports that Sen. Lindsey Graham has been censured by the Charleston County Republican Party -- in a unanimous vote.
Why?
“For many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a ‘cap and trade’ energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens.”
Graham's office pointed to the senator being "ranked the 15th most conservative senator in 2008 by National Journal."
Remember, Graham also voted in favor of Sonia Sotomayor. And reporters, who were camped out in South Carolina before both parties' primaries last year, will remember this ad:
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Next week is going to be Palin -palooza with her new book, "Going Rogue," out Tuesday.
On Monday, she'll be on Oprah. On Wednesday she's embarking on a whirlwind, seven-day, 13 city tour that's sure to sell lots of books.
Here are some points after looking at the tour dates (released yesterday on Palin's
Facebook page):
Battleground America: 11 of the 13 stops are in battleground states
Real America Tour? Not only is she eschewing the big cities, but nine of the 13 stops are in congressional districts won by McCain. The ones won by Obama are either swing presidential districts or places where a good potential GOP candidate could unseat the Democrat.
Bookends: The bookend states -- Michigan and Florida -- are the primary states that the Democrats had their delegate fight over during the 2008 primaries.
Potential for Fireworks: Her last date is in FL-8, represented by... Alan "Die Quickly" Grayson. We'll see if he shows up at that Barnes & Noble.
The full pre-Thanksgiving schedule after the jump...
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Obama’s four options : On this Veterans Day, at 2:30 pm ET, President Obama meets with his national security team for the eighth and possibly final time to discuss what to do in Afghanistan. Obama received two new options yesterday, in addition to the other two that had been debated for some time, and all of them increase the number of troops there. On the low end, one option (supported by Vice President Biden) sends an additional 10,000 to 15,000. On the high end is a proposal for the 40,000 to 44,000 troops that Gen. McChrystal has requested. As NBC's Savannah Guthrie first reported last night, Defense Secretary Gates supports a middle option of sorts that gives McChrystal nearly all he wants -- but not quite. And today’s New York Times adds that Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen and Secretary of State Clinton also back that middle proposal.
:
President Obama meets with his war team amid reports he's made a decision to add tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan, reports the White house denies. *** The clock is ticking : Obama’s decision is likely to come at the end of Thanksgiving week or the week after. But the calendar is a real factor here: If the president orders all the troops McChrystal wants, it still will take more than a year to get them in to the country. But McChrystal said in his report that “failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) … risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.” Bottom line: The president doesn't like his options; it's why he keeps asking for more plans from his military advisers. Notice that in his Fort Hood speech yesterday, he was careful to link Pakistan and Afghanistan together. Obama believes the focus of the war effort in Afghanistan should be regional and tactical and about al Qaeda and other extremists. By constantly linking Afghanistan and Pakistan together, the administration is sending the message it is NOT in the business of nation-building. And now the key players in the White House are even more skeptical of their partner in Afghanistan (read: Karzai). One gets the sense if the president would love to figure out a way to use this moment to fundamentally change the perception of what America is doing in the region.
*** The speech at Fort Hood : As for Obama’s remarks yesterday at Fort Hood, it could very well be a speech that’s going to be remembered and quoted for some time. It struck the right balance of commander-in-chief and consoler-in-chief, which isn’t easy. And it's always a greater challenge for a president who did not wear the uniform to honor those who have. The president also seemed to touch on the Muslim issue without dwelling on it. Again, it was a difficult balance -- but one that was necessary in this current climate. Meanwhile, the real headaches for the administration are beginning to come into focus as various government entities begin the CYA process. Today alone, there seems to be a fair share of finger-pointing over who knew what about Hasan's contacts with a radical cleric. These stories all have the potential to become political land mines. Because of that don't be surprised if, in short order, we see some blue-ribbon panel/investigation body or something get convened.
*** The Race for 60 : On health care, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday that he plans to bring his bill to the floor next week. But that will be the easy part. As a top Democrat in the Senate told NBC’s David Gregory, "Everyone in the caucus realizes that we have to pass a bill, but no one can quite figure out the path [to 60]." The two more contentious matters: the public option and abortion. That said, Bill Clinton’s Capitol Hill visit must have paid dividends after Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said this, per the Washington Post : Nelson, “the only Democrat who has yet to support bringing a bill to the Senate floor, noted that Clinton appealed to lawmakers not to expect their ideological ideal. ‘He said you need to pass the best bill that you can,’ Nelson said. ‘Getting the best bill is not only good for the people, it's good politics -- and it's that simple.’”
*** Two strategies for Reid : Here's something to ponder: What's the better strategy for Reid -- calling the bluff of Nelson/Lincoln/Lieberman/Snowe and seeing how intent they are in filibustering (so Reid can placate those on the left), or avoiding that PUBLIC moment and negotiating behind the scenes to a point that gets those centrists on board? There's a divide among some, but don't be surprised if Reid goes the public route (as it's the best way to show the left that he did everything he could do), then goes back to the trigger to move it out of the Senate. What's Reid got to lose doing that? Who knows, maybe Nelson/Lieberman/Lincoln/Snowe come aboard earlier than expected…
*** Tied in Ohio : Was there a Republican honeymoon post-Election Day '09? Perhaps. Back in September, a Quinnipiac poll had Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) with a 10-point lead over likely challenger John Kasich (R), 46%-36%. Well, a new Quinnipiac survey now has Strickland and Kasich tied at 40% each. What’s more, the poll has Strickland’s approval at 45%, his lowest score ever in this survey. As we’ve said before, this isn’t a good time to be an incumbent governor. Looking ahead to next year’s midterms -- and also the 2012 presidential race -- one thing to watch will be to see how Democratic Govs. Strickland (in Ohio), Ritter (in Colorado), and Culver (in Iowa) all fare next year. All three states, remember, are red ones that Obama carried last year.
*** Helping the GOP’s recruiting pitch : In addition, Republicans today are likely to seize on a new Gallup poll showing them with a four-point edge on the 2010 generic ballot test. Our NBC/WSJ poll last month had Dems with an eight-point advantage. The Quinnipiac and Gallup surveys couldn't have come at a better time for the GOP, as they put the final sale on prospective candidates for the House, in particular. There are many House GOP leaders who would truly like to make a run at the majority in 2010, but they need more quality candidates in more races. A poll like this is a boost to their sales pitch.
*** Tracking the stimulus : Don’t miss MSNBC.com’s brand-new application tracking the stimulus .
*** Obama on Veterans Day : In addition to his meeting on Afghanistan, President Obama and the first lady host a Veterans Day breakfast at the White House at 9:05 am ET. Then the two head over to Arlington National Cemetery to participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns at 11:00 am, and the president will deliver remarks 25 minutes later. Also today, Vice President Biden hosts a lunch for veterans and servicemembers at the Naval Observatory at noon.
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The New York Times on Obama’s speech yesterday: “President Obama took on the role of national eulogist on Tuesday for the first time since assuming office as he led the country in mourning 13 active and retired soldiers gunned down not on a foreign battlefield but here on their home post by one of their own… Although Mr. Obama had spoken at the funeral of Senator Edward M. Kennedy and made a post-midnight visit to Dover Air Force Base to salute the returning dead, this was the first time he had served as the nation’s comforter at a time of major tragedy. These are moments that can define a president, as when Bill Clinton eulogized the Oklahoma City bombing victims or George W. Bush gave voice to the anguish of a nation after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.”
The Los Angeles Times adds: "The speech left some of the thousands of military personnel and civilians in attendance in tears. It appeared that Obama too had to compose himself at times."
The New York Post puts Obama's speech at Fort Hood on its cover.
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Rachel Maddow reports on the Fort Hood memorial service, including President Obama's speech. “Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton are coalescing around a proposal to send 30,000 or more additional American troops to Afghanistan, but President Obama remains unsatisfied with answers he has gotten about how vigorously the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan would help execute a new strategy, administration officials said Tuesday,” the New York Times says. “Mr. Obama is to consider four final options in a meeting with his national security team on Wednesday, his press secretary, Robert Gibbs, told reporters. The options outline different troop levels, other officials said, but they also assume different goals — including how much of Afghanistan the troops would seek to control — and different time frames and expectations for the training of Afghan security forces.”
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Per The Hill , here was Bill Clinton’s message to Senate Democrats yesterday: "The worst thing we can do is nothing." More: "Clinton called on Democrats to be ready to compromise, something his administration was criticized for not doing in 1993 and 1994. By contrast, Obama has been flexible -- some critics say too flexible -- on the ingredients of the bill he hopes to sign into law."
More from the New York Times : “‘It’s not important to be perfect here,’ Mr. Clinton said, recounting his comments to reporters after the lunch. ‘It’s important to act, to move, to start the ball rolling, to claim the evident advantages that all these plans agree with, and whatever they can get the votes for I’m going to support.’ He added, ‘I think it is good politics to pass this and to pass it as soon as they can.’”
Meanwhile, "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) got the ball rolling on the health care reform debate Tuesday night by starting the process for putting the House-passed bill on the official Senate calendar," Roll Call says.
The Wall Street Journal looks at how Republicans overall have become more conservative on abortion, by virtue of having fewer moderates in its caucus. In May 2001, President George W. Bush signed an executive order banning U.S. foreign assistance to overseas groups that performed abortions or supported abortion rights. “Thirty-three Republicans in 2001 broke with their party to oppose the overseas ban. On Saturday, by comparison, no Republicans crossed the aisle on the abortion vote. The difference? Of the 33 Republicans who opposed the ban in 2001, 26 have since retired or been ousted from office. Nearly all were replaced by Democrats, with the heaviest shift coming in states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.”
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FLORIDA : Another NY-23? In FL-8, Alan "Die Quickly" Grayson's district, a 28-year-old GOP newcomer has gotten lots of key endorsements and gotten a lot of buzz, "but GOP operatives in Washington and the district say he is running a destructive primary campaign, and national and local leaders are doing just about anything they can to avoid having him as their nominee," The Hill reports.
MASSACHUSETTS : Rep. Michael Capuano, running for U.S. Senate against state Attorney General Martha Coakley, blasted Coakley on Monday for saying she would have voted against the House health bill because of the abortion amendment. Yesterday, Capuano changed his tune. "If the bill comes back the same way as it left the House, I would vote against it," Capuano said in an interview. “I am a prochoice person, and I do believe this is [necessary] to provide health care for everyone."
OHIO : As we've said before, it's not a good time to be governor. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is now tied with likely GOP challenger John Kasich, 40%-40%, according to a new Quinnipiac poll . He has just a 45%/43% job approval rating and just a 38%/37% fav/unfav, his worst ever. What's driving this? The economy. Just 33% approve of his handling of the economy; 52% disapprove. Ohio's unemployment is 10.1% , though that's down from a high of 11.1% this past summer.
From NBC's Ken Strickland President Bill Clinton walked into the Capitol this afternoon for luncheon with Senate Democrats, he pushed a healthcare proposal championed by Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe . But based on the context of his comments he was probably more joking and courteous, than serious.
"I'm gonna tell them Olympia [Snowe] is right. They ought to follow Olympia," he said with a big grin as he walked away. Snowe's proposal would allow a public option to be "triggered" in states only if private companies failed to offer affordable insurance plans.
As was written in First Thoughts this morning, Clinton has strong ties to the Senate centrists who could very well decide the fate of the health-care bill in the Senate. Clinton was governor when Ben Nelson served as governor of Nebraska; Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor just happen to represent Clinton’s home state of Arkansas; and Clinton and Joe Lieberman used to be very close personally and ideologically -- before the Lewinsky scandal. During the 2008 campaign, Clinton seemed to find his stride campaigning in red America -- in places that are similar politically to Arkansas, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. Clinton's at his best when he's giving others political advice, and he excels at framing an argument better than just about anyone on the political stage.
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The Huffington Post's Lawrence O'Donnell discusses how the direct advocacy by former President Clinton affects health reform passage in the Senate . Clinton had just passed the metal detector at what's called the Senate's "carriage entrance." After Clinton's staff told him he didn't have to walk through the metal detector, he spotted Snowe.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Healer-in-Chief: The commander-in-chief tries to become the nation’s healer-in-chief when he travels to Texas to participate in the memorial service at Fort Hood after Thursday’s massacre there. President Obama and the first lady arrive in Killeen, TX at 12:25 pm ET; they meet with the families who lost loved ones in the tragedy at 12:50 pm; they then meet with wounded soldiers and their families at 1:20 pm; finally, the president addresses the Fort Hood community at 2:00 pm. These kind of moments are BIG for presidents; in fact, they're more defining than presidents themselves sometimes realize. Does Obama say anything about some of the reaction we’ve seen to Muslims serving in the military? (Yesterday, the conservative group America Family Association called for the purging of Muslim soldiers in the U.S. armed forces.) It would be surprising if he did NOT address this potential firestorm which, while not yet spreading, is no where near contained. That said, stories like this piece in the Washington Post on Maj. Hasan's warnings of Muslim uprisings INSIDE the military will only make this issue of Hasan's religion a continued focal point.
*** No decision on Afghanistan -- yet: Per NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, senior White House sources dispute the reports that the president has made up his mind to deploy more than 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. In fact, the White House says President Obama has NOT decided. One senior official, who spoke to the president yesterday on the subject, stressed that Obama had not made up his mind. A senior U.S. military official adds to NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski that Defense Secretary Gates and the Joint Chiefs have NOT yet presented the president with additional options that he asked for more than a week ago; they are expected to do that later this week, and Guthrie says the White House is awaiting four options. But while the White House is pushing back on this 30,000-plus number, that doesn’t mean this won’t be the administration’s ultimate decision. The concerted effort to push back has to do with the administration's belief that the focus should be on its new strategy, not on troop levels. As for a decision, it obviously won't come during his trip to Asia (Press Secretary Gibbs himself all but said that yesterday). Will he really let Thanksgiving go by before announcing?
*** Bubba heads to the Hill: Former President Bill Clinton heads to Capitol Hill today to speak to Democratic senators at their weekly caucus meeting at 1:45 pm ET. The topic, of course, will be health care. What’s particularly interesting is that Clinton has strong ties to the Senate centrists who could very well decide the fate of the health-care bill in the Senate. Clinton was governor when Ben Nelson served as governor of Nebraska; Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor just happen to represent Clinton’s home state of Arkansas; and Clinton and Joe Lieberman used to be VERY close personally and ideologically -- all before the Lewinsky scandal. In particular, what kind of advice does Clinton give to Lincoln and Pryor? What does he say to Lieberman (if the Connecticut senator ends up attending)? During the '08 campaign, Clinton found his stride campaigning in, well, red America -- in places that are similar politically to Arkansas, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. Clinton's at his best when he's giving OTHERS political advice, and he excels at framing an argument better than just about anyone on the political stage today.
*** NARAL -- fired up and ready to go? Staying with health care… Is the pro-choice community considering funding primary challenges to pro-life Dems? Sounds like it from this Politics Daily report. "It's too early to say whether the abortion rights lobby is a sleeping giant, but it is definitely, some would say finally, awake. Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL ProChoice America, was in a fighting mood in an interview on Monday. 'There's elections coming up in 2010. We will know who stood with us and who stood against us,' she told me. The latter, she said, may face primary challenges. 'Nothing's off the table,' she said. 'It's a new day and I'm here to tell you we're going to hold those accountable who voted against us.' This would be a departure. According to Keenan, her group has supported a challenger in a Democratic primary only once." What will the pro-choice community say today in response to Rep. Loretta Sanchez's (D-CA) contention on “Morning Joe” today that there are only approximately 150 pro-choice votes in Congress? This is the unintended consequence of trying to become a big-tent party on certain issues (like guns and abortion).
*** RGA loses two in one day: Just one week after the GOP’s wins in New Jersey and Virginia, we assumed that Republicans would be gaining key gubernatorial candidates -- not losing them. But that’s exactly what happened yesterday. First, up-and-coming Colorado Republican Josh Penry announced that he wouldn't run for governor, which essentially means that former GOP Rep. Scott McInnis will be the Republican who will challenge Gov. Bill Ritter (D) next year. Then, Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R) said she won’t run for another term next year, which gives Dems a pretty good shot at winning that seat. Something must have spooked Penry; a source tells us that a pro-McInnis 527 was gearing up to go after Penry, who used to work as an aide to McInnis. But the energy behind Penry was palpable, which his VERY early exit a surprise to a lot of folks, particularly here in DC. As for Rell, her poll numbers -- while better than most governors’ -- have declined; she isn’t as popular as she once was. Indeed, a new Quinnipiac poll has her with a 64% job rating, which (believe it or not) isn’t close to the high she once enjoyed in the 70s and 80s. Rell was going to have her first tough campaign as governor and, well, being a governor these days is difficult.
*** Another thing to add to Wednesday’s calendar: Tomorrow, on Veterans Day, First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden will join the national service group ServiceNation to launch its “Mission Serve” initiative, a network of military and civilian service organizations to meet the needs of troops, military families, and veterans. Both Michelle Obama and Jill Biden will deliver remarks at the event, which takes place in DC.
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The New York Times writes, “Democrats have displayed a striking degree of pragmatism in seeking to push the health care bill through Congress, embracing or rejecting ideological considerations as needed to keep the legislation moving. But if the flexibility shown by party leaders on issues like abortion and the proposed government-run insurance plan has kept the legislative process on track, it has also left many liberals off balance and risked alienating the party’s base as the midterm elections approach.”
“President Obama suggested Monday that he was not comfortable with abortion restrictions inserted into the House version of major health care legislation, and he prodded Congress to revise them,” the New York Times also notes. “‘There needs to be some more work before we get to the point where we’re not changing the status quo’ on abortion, Mr. Obama said in an interview with ABC News. ‘And that’s the goal.’”
More: “On the one hand, Mr. Obama said, ‘we’re not looking to change what is the principle that has been in place for a very long time, which is federal dollars are not used to subsidize abortions.’ On the other hand, he said, he wanted to make sure ‘we’re not restricting women’s insurance choices,’ because he had promised that ‘if you’re happy and satisfied with the insurance that you have, it’s not going to change.’”
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"Senate Democratic leaders expect their long-awaited healthcare bill to hit the chamber floor as early as Monday," The Hill writes. "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expected to finish its cost analysis of the Senate bill by the end of this week or early next. Senior aides and senators say Democrats plan to pivot quickly and file the first procedural vote as early as Monday."
"Senate Democratic leaders are still pushing to bring up their health care reform bill next week, even though the gambit comes with risks as they race against the clock to get a measure passed before the end of the year," Roll Call says.
Chuck Schumer predicted it would get done by the end of the year. "Democrats realize that failure is worse for the country -- and worse for us," Schumer said at a Daily News Editorial Board meeting. "I think from the most conservative to the most liberal Democrat, they believe that. The President, in the last month, will be very heavily involved."
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The Washington Post gets an interview with Dede Scozzafava. “At her desk, with a fuzzy elephant face down on a bookshelf behind her, she recalled the exhausting end days of her campaign. Violet semicircles hung below her teary eyes as she recounted how Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and other conservative leaders excoriated her for less-than-orthodox positions on gay rights, abortion and organized labor. Her nose reddened as she recalled her abrupt exit from the special election to replace John M. McHugh, whom President Obama had appointed as secretary of the Army earlier in the year.”
More: “The conservative movement's third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, expected her support but, she said, the newcomer accountant ‘had no integrity.’ Plus, the Democrats were so nice! They called. They sympathized. They made her feel good about tossing her support to Bill Owens, who -- with her help -- became the area's first Democratic representative in more than a century. ‘Oh, someone left chocolates for me!’ she said, picking up a present from her aunt and uncle. Her GOP family has been less supportive. And she warns that what happened to her will happen to candidates like her.”
Michael Steele says white Republicans are scared of him, The Hill reports. On Roland Martin's TV One there was this exchange:
The Hill looks at how vulnerable Democrats who voted for and against the health care bill are starting to defend their votes.
CONNECTICUT: "Connecticut Republicans are facing their first contentious battle for a Senate nomination in more than 15 years, but it’s not clear whether spending big bucks now -- as some candidates are doing -- will help in the long run. With about 1,600 GOP delegates poised to pick the party’s nominee at their annual convention in May, this could be one contest in which spending heavily on television ads has diminished returns ."
FLORIDA: The Club for Growth's endorsement of Marco Rubio in the Senate GOP primary should help Rubio with fundraising, "but while the club saturated television airwaves in upstate New York with ads leading up to the special election, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to do the same across a state as large and expensive as Florida," Roll Call argues.
MASSACHUSETTS: "Opening up a major fissure in the US Senate race, Attorney General Martha Coakley said yesterday that she opposes the landmark health care bill approved by the House Saturday because it contains a provision restricting federal funding for abortion," the Boston Globe reports. "Coakley, in her boldest gamble of the campaign, said that fighting for women’s access to abortions was more important than passing the overall bill, despite its aim of providing coverage for 36 million people, establishing a public insurance option, and prohibiting insurers from discriminating against patients with preexisting conditions."
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Josh Penry decided against a CO-GOV primary challenge against Scott McInnis , his former boss in Congress, because he was scared off, in part, by a 527 that was ramping up for McInnis that was set to go after Penry. He is sitting out the 2010 cycle and is NOT running for CO-3 despite the rumors.
The news of Penry dropping out of the race was first reported by the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza .
The source added that Penry's Name ID, they were seeing, was only about 15% to 20% statewide, and Penry felt that a 527 and a nasty political fight could have ruined or significantly damaged his reputation and hurt his political capital with Republicans. This path helps Penry, who's only 33, build up political capital, the source said.
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From NBC's Ken Strickland Susan Collins (ME) sat with a member of the Senate's GOP leadership team and blasted the Democratic healthcare bills moving through Congress. She also said she's working with a small bipartisan group of moderates to craft a better bill or improve the Senate's version.
"I have concluded that if any of these bills were to pass, healthcare cost would actually increase for many Americans," Colins said in an off-camera briefing with Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander . Later she added, "To me, we should rewrite the whole bill."
In a 10-minute opening statement, Collins launched into a point-by-point critique of the bill. Her chief complaints were that the bills lacked true healthcare delivery reform that will reduce cost; adds billions in new fees and taxes; and will increase insurance premiums.
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From NBC's Bobby Cervantes Nancy Pelosi’s desk that states their intention to vote against a conference committee report if the Stupak-Pitts anti-abortion amendment remains as is, according to a draft of the letter obtained by Greg Sargent .
The amendment, which the House passed by a 240-to-196 vote on Saturday, calmed some conservative anti-abortion Democrats who worried federal funding would be provided for abortions in the Democratic health-care bill that passed late Saturday night.
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Rep. Diana DeGette, D- Colo., explains why she supported the health reform bill, but threatened to block it beacuse of the anti-abortion amendment. The letter:
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From NBC's Ken Strickland Harry Reid to line up 60 votes to just get the health-care bill on the floor. The CBO numbers could come this later this week, according to Reid's office. But getting those 60 votes is still a big unknown.
Here's what we're watching for this week: "When and how will Reid get 60 votes?" Centrist Democrats Ben Nelson , Mary Landrieu , and Blanche Lincoln are still noncommittal in supporting Reid's effort to get the bill on the floor. Unless Reid can find a way to get them on board -- change the bill, address their concerns, or presidential persuasion -- the bill can't get on the floor."Will Reid have a bill before Christmas (or Hanukkah or Kwanzaa)?" A cursory look at the calendar shows it's a tall order. But here's the sleeper issue: the CBO. When Democrats say they've sent the measure to the CBO for the cost estimate, they didn't send "a bill." They sent elements of a bill that include the public option/opt-out. This means if they get numbers back from the CBO this week, there's still work to do before it goes to the floor.
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Politico's Craig Gordon discusses a tentative schedule as to when a health reform bill may be passed. Reid will still have to pull those separate elements together to write "the bill." And he might even have to send "the bill" back to CBO for another score. (What might seem like little tweaks around the edges can change the cost by billions.) And if Reid still doesn't have 60 votes, he may have to rewrite the bill. Last week, Landrieu told reporters that
Olympia Snowe's trigger was still in play -- at least for her.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Kelly Paice, and Bobby Cervantes we released our analysis of the Democratic votes FOR the House healthcare bill, and which Democrats could be or are vulnerable. We noted that there were about 60 vulnerable or potentially vulnerable Democrats, including 18 who represent districts won by McCain ; another 10 where Obama got less than 55% and so did the member; six from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but the member won by more than 55%.
But, of the Republicans who voted AGAINST the legislation, there are actually more GOPers in most of these categories. Part of that is because of candidate Obama’s sweeping ground game, the lack of McCain’s, and an environment that was MUCH more favorable to the Democrats in 2008 than it likely will be in 2010. So, as Republicans would point out, Republicans probably have a built-in advantage in these House races. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats will likely lose double-digit numbers of seats, 15 or more. But it’s interesting to see that there are so many Republicans in districts that have shown they could vote for a Democrat.
There are 92 Republicans in competitive or potentially competitive districts, including 29 Republican members from districts Obama won; 12 districts in which McCain and the member won less than 55%; 10 from which McCain won more than 55%, but the member won less than 55%; and 41 in which McCain won less than 55% and the member won more than 55%.
Full list after the jump... updates made...
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From NBC's Pete Williams
*** UPDATE *** John Paul Stevens and Sonia Sotomayor say states like Virginia should not be allow to rush the Supreme Court into deciding death penalty cases hours or days before scheduled executions.
Muhammad's lawyers asked the court to put his execution on hold so that it could consider his challenge to the death sentence. They claim Muhammad was mentally ill.
"This case highlights once again the perversity of executing inmates before their appeals process has been fully concluded," Stevens wrote today, with Sotomayor agreeing.
"By denying Muhammad's stay application, we have allowed Virginia to truncate our deliberative process on a matter -- involving a death row inmate -- that demands the most careful attention. This result is particularly unfortunate in light of the limited time Muhammad was given to make his case in the District Court."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro First Thoughts : A First Read analysis of Saturday’s House healthcare vote finds that about 60 of the Democrats who voted for health care are either in vulnerable or potentially vulnerable districts, including 18 who represent districts that went for McCain. Another 10 are in districts where Obama got less than 55% and so did the member; six are from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 are in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but the member won by more than 55%; and at least another 12 are in districts where both they and Obama got more than 55%, but either have been competitive in the past or could be competitive.
Here's the ful list. (If we've missed any, or there are any you think should be added -- or taken away -- let us know):
McCain-won districts (18): BerryCarney (PA-10): McCain 54-45 (Carney 56-44)Dahlkemper (PA-3): McCain 49-49 (Dahlkemper 51-49)Ellsworth (IN-8): McCain 51-48 (Ellsworth 65-35)Giffords (AZ-8): McCain 52-46 (Giffords 55-43)Hill (IN-9): McCain 50-48 (Hill 58-38)Kirkpatrick (AZ-1): McCain 54-44 (Kirkpatrick 56-39 freshman)Snyder (AR-2): McCain 54-45 (Snyder 77 no cand)Mitchell (AZ-5): McCain 52-47 (Mitchell 53-45)Salazar (CO-3): McCain 50-48 (Salazar 62-38)Pomeroy (ND-AL): McCain 53-45 (Pomeroy 62-38)Wilson (OH-6): McCain 50-48 (Wilson 62-33)Space (OH-18): McCain 53-45 (Space 60-40)Murtha (PA-12): McCain 49-49 (Murtha 58-42)Spratt (SC-5): McCain 53-46 (Spratt 62-37)Mollohan (WV-1): McCain 57-42 (Mollohan 99 unopposed)Rahall (WV-3): McCain 56-42 (Rahall 67-33)Perriello (VA-5): McCain 51-48 (Perriello 50-49.9)
More after the jump... AND later today, we'll release a list of vulnerable Republicans
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Senate gets the baton : After Saturday night’s historic, contentious, and very narrow health-care vote in the House of Representatives, the action now moves to the Senate, where things won’t get any easier. On Sunday, President Obama made a rare statement from the White House Rose Garden. “Now it falls on the United States Senate to take the baton and bring this effort to the finish line on behalf of the American people,” he said. Unfortunately for Obama and the Democrats, the Senate will never be mistaken for Usain Bolt. Why? While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford losing 39 Democratic votes on Saturday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can’t lose a single one to bring it to the floor. What’s more, conservative Senate Dems -- not to mention Joe Lieberman (I-D) -- have major objections to the “opt out” public option in Reid’s bill. “If the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote,” Lieberman said yesterday on FOX.
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Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., President of the American Medical Association Dr. James Rohack and the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart debate whether the House health reform bill will pass in the Senate.
*** Give Pelosi her due : Speaker Pelosi deserves her due on Saturday’s vote. She had said she'd get this out of the House as soon as she had the votes. By going when she did, with another Dem in her pocket (the new seat in NY-23) and keeping the House in session over the weekend, she got it done. And she even quelled a potential uprising among the most pro-choice members of her caucus. It was an impressive performance; she had her share of backseat drivers in all parts of official Washington, and she pulled it off. By the way, the NEXT health care vote in the House should be easier to get, given that what comes out of conference (the “opt out” or the trigger) will likely be a tad easier for moderates to support. That said, the abortion issue could still end up a problem at some point in this process. But the way she navigated the bill over the weekend should re-shape the C.W. on her a tad. As the L.A. Times notes, she's a lot more pragmatic than her opponents want to paint her. And now you know why she was able to become leader of her caucus and why she's Speaker until either the voters decide -- or she decide she doesn't want the job anymore.
*** Republicans aren’t the only ones eating their own : As mentioned, 39 House Democrats -- most of them from conservative-leaning congressional districts -- voted against the bill, while just one Republican -- Cao of Louisiana -- voted for it. Well, liberal MoveOn has announced it will launch a $500,000 ad blitz, which will start in the middle of the week, targeting Dems who voted against it, such as Mike Ross (AR), Jason Altmire (PA), Glenn Nye (VA), Rick Boucher (VA), Larry Kissell (NC), and Health Shuler (NC). Meanwhile, MoveOn says it will hold “thank you” events on Thursday and Friday for some 60 Dems who voted yes, and AFSCME and liberal Health Care for America Now (HCAN) are also running TV ads thanking many of these folks .
*** Drawing more battle lines : Indeed, this "thank you" list is a good place to start our 2010 focus to see how the Obama agenda is playing -- not in the 39 districts of the Democrats who voted no. A First Read analysis of the Saturday’s vote finds that about 60 of the Democrats who voted for health care are either in vulnerable or potentially vulnerable districts, including 18 who represent districts that went for McCain. Another 10 are in districts where Obama got less than 55%; six are from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 are in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but they won by more than 55%; and at least another 12 are in districts where both they and Obama got more than 55%, but either have been competitive in the past or could be competitive. We'll release the full list later today.
*** Backlash against Muslims? The trickiest issue for the military and the president to deal with this week regarding the Ft. Hood shootings may be the growing concern over backlash against Muslim Americans. The more we learn about the shooter, the more the military is concerned about this backlash issue. With every detail about his religion that becomes public, it's likely that much harder for other practicing Muslims in the military to walk around their bases. Army Gen. George Casey warned on “Meet the Press” that this kind of scrutiny could hurt the military’s diversity. “Our diversity -- not only in our Army but in our country -- is a strength. And as horrific as this tragedy was, if our diversity becomes a tragedy, I think that’s worse.” And if this incident gets classified as a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, something Lieberman raised over the weekend, then the backlash could get even worse.
*** Barack and Bibi : The biggest event on President Obama’s schedule today is a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at 7:00 pm ET. The Israelis usually love to get their American presidential photo-ops, but Netanyahu won't get one unless the White House releases an official photograph. Why? There is no pool spray or media moment between the two at all. Part of the reason is that the White House only agreed to meet Netanyahu in the last 48 hours, despite Netanyahu's pleas for a meeting for weeks. The Israeli leader is in U.S. for a speech here in DC. The fact this meeting was so difficult to put together only underscores the perception that the two men just don't see eye-to-eye when it comes to their world views; the two are distant, there’s no other way to describe their relationship. The Middle East peace process appears stalled (that should be a topic tonight), and then the news that Iran is reneging on its deal over nukes will also be something that dominates.
*** Time to walk away? On Sunday, the New York Times’ Tom Friedman issued some advice for Obama when it comes to the Middle East: walk away from the negotiating table until Israel and the Palestinian Authority realize they really want peace. “Right now we want it more than the parties. They all have other priorities today. And by constantly injecting ourselves we’ve become their Novocain. We relieve all the political pain from the Arab and Israeli decision-makers by creating the impression in the minds of their publics that something serious is happening… Indeed, it’s time for us to dust off James Baker’s line: ‘When you’re serious, give us a call: 202-456-1414. Ask for Barack. Otherwise, stay out of our lives. We have our own country to fix.’”
*** 2012 watch : By the way, look who was in Iowa this weekend: Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee. “Pawlenty’s speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines [was] the first high- profile event of the early audition season in the state that holds the nation’s first presidential caucus,” Bloomberg News writes. And check out this quote from T-Paw: “Minnesota and Iowa have a lot in common. We’re a state that if you drive across the Minnesota border into northern Iowa, you can’t tell that you’re in a different state in a lot of ways.” This is Pawlenty's launching pad, pure and simple. Even if the other major candidates attempt to downplay the Hawkeye State, Pawlenty won't (and can't) in 2012. And here was Huckabee, courtesy of the Des Moines Register : “2008 Iowa Republican caucuses winner Mike Huckabee spent his Sunday in Davenport, Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines, signing copies of his new book, 'A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.' But many of the 300 people who turned out for his book-signing in West Des Moines weren't focused on a holiday that's seven weeks away. Their minds were on 2012.”
*** Remembering the day the wall came tumbling down : Finally, today is the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Don’t miss Tom Brokaw’s reporting on the anniversary on “Meet” yesterday .
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 29 days
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The House passed its version of health reform legislation, 220-215, on Saturday night at about 11:30 pm ET, after about 13 hours of debate.
"Don't look for the Senate to quickly follow the House on health care overhaul," the AP says. "A government health insurance plan included in the House bill is unacceptable to a few Democratic moderates who hold the balance of power in the Senate. They're locked in a battle with liberals, with the fate of President Barack Obama's signature issue at stake."
:
A panel discusses on "Meet the Press" whether the House passage of the health care bill gives the Senate momentum to pass its helath care legislation. The
AP also looks at the differences between the House and Senate bills.
"The [House] bill nearly failed when a deal with conservative Dems collapsed and Pelosi was forced to let them bring up an amendment to restrict abortion coverage," the
New York Daily News writes. "The move enraged liberals, but most agreed to stay onboard and Obama traveled to the House Saturday to seal the deal with a personal plea."
The
New York Times : “Five states go further than the [abortion] amendment to the health care overhaul. The five — Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota and Oklahoma — already bar private insurance plans from covering elective abortions. The federal employees’ health insurance plan and most state Medicaid programs also ban coverage of abortion, complying with a three-decade old ban on federal abortion financing. Seventeen state Medicaid programs, however, do cover the procedure, by using only state money.”
The Los Angeles Times notes how pragmatic Pelosi had to be to pass the health bill. “Pelosi is a San Francisco liberal who launched a series of fruitless efforts to cut off funding for the Iraq war after becoming speaker nearly three years ago. But long before making her home on the Left Coast, Pelosi was the attentive daughter of an old-school East Coast politician who made whatever deals it took to win. That upbringing proved crucial in the healthcare marathon. In the fight to get the legislation through the House, Pelosi's impulse to tilt at windmills disappeared and her pragmatic heritage came to the fore. That's what enabled Pelosi to build a majority, one compromise at a time, including the pivotal deal with antiabortion Democrats.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times front-pages, “The White House, growing concerned that the Congressional timetable for passing a health care overhaul could slip into next year, is stepping up pressure on the Senate for quick action, with President Obama appearing Sunday in the Rose Garden to call on senators to ‘take up the baton and bring this effort to the finish line.’ Mr. Obama’s remarks came just 14 hours after the House narrowly approved a landmark plan that would cost $1.1 trillion over 10 years and extend insurance coverage to 36 million uninsured Americans; the president called it “a courageous vote.” But the votes had barely been counted when the White House began turning its attention to an even bigger hurdle: getting legislation passed in the Senate.”
After the health care bill passed the House, President Obama says it's now time for the Senate to "take up the baton" of health care reform. The Washington Post : “A year after his election, the health-care vote in the House was a reminder of the power that he still wields to shape the country's future, cajoling change that he promised as a candidate over the objections of a nearly unified GOP and a sharply divided party of his own. But the victory came on the heels of sobering evidence that even a president as popular as he remains is subject to the shifting public mood, an economy struggling to recover and events that are beyond his direct control.”
Obama will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today. Netanyahu is in DC speaking to Jewish groups. L.A. Times previews Obama’s upcoming trip to Asia. “With unemployment topping 10% and his healthcare plan still facing Senate action, President Obama has plenty to keep him busy at home. But on Thursday, he will head to Asia for more than a week, a trip that underscores the White House's conviction that a close partnership with China and other Pacific Rim nations is crucial to American interests. Obama is scheduled to stop in Japan, Singapore, China and South Korea, bringing to 20 the number of nations he has visited since taking office in January. That's a record, according to the Obama administration; no other president has traveled to so many countries in his first year in office.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post has launched a new series looking at GOP’s political condition -- “The Elephant in the Room: Examining the State of the Republican Party.” Dan Balz opened the series yesterday. “One year after hitting bottom in the aftermath of President Obama's election, Republicans have taken their first concrete steps toward recovery. But they remain an embattled and divided force, facing an electorate still skeptical about their capacity to govern and embroiled in a struggle between party regulars and populist conservative forces over how to return to power.”
Pawlenty was in Iowa over the weekend. "Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty criticized health care legislation in Congress as he appeared in what may be an early audition for a 2012 presidential bid," Bloomberg writes. "'We’ve got Congress -- Democratic-controlled Congress -- messing around with a miserable health care bill,' he said. 'They should be focused like a laser on jobs, not acting like a manure-spreader in a wind storm.' Pawlenty’s speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines is the first high-profile event of the early try out season in the state that holds the nation’s first presidential caucuses. 'They can’t even get us, in a reasonable time, a vaccine for the H1N1 virus,' said Pawlenty, 48. 'How are they going to manage our health care?'"
So was Mike Huckabee . “2008 Iowa Republican caucuses winner Mike Huckabee spent his Sunday in Davenport, Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines, signing copies of his new book, ‘A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.’ But many of the 300 people who turned out for his book-signing in West Des Moines weren't focused on a holiday that's seven weeks away. Their minds were on 2012.”
As for Sarah Palin, she was firing up some Facebook "Notes" over the weekend, crediting Ronald Reagan in part for the fall of the Berlin Wall; blasting House Democrats for the health care vote; and telling the press again to "quit making things up" because of an event in Wisconsin in which cameras weren't allowed.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro The House health care bill passed 220-215 in a late-night vote yesterday. Remember that Democrats won two special elections on Election Day on Tuesday. And this bill passed by two votes. Coincidence?
It was about a 13-hour day in the House, but throughout the day, Democrats sounded confident. The president stopped by to meet with the Democratic caucus in the morning, but Majority Whip
Jim Clyburn acknowledged that Obama didn't affect the vote. Obama likely wouldn't have been there if the votes weren't there -- and the bill wouldn't have come up for a vote.
So what happened from Friday, when Democrats seemed just short, and Saturday night? Democrats, led by House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi behind closed doors, solved the abortion issue with pro-life Catholic Democrats. As many as 20 to 30 votes hinged on the abortion language. Pelosi got the endorsement of the Catholic Bishops, and she allowed -- and said she suggested -- that an amendment explicitly banning federal funding in the House bill, would be voted on. The amendment was introduced and pushed by Democrat
Bart Stupak from Michigan. The amendment passed 240-196, and the Democrats kept the more liberal members, who threatened to vote against, in line.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Mike Viqueira, and Luke Russert
Fix abortion, the bill passes, one Democrat said. Don't fix it, it doesn't.
Many of these members are waiting for a yay or nay from the Conference of Catholic Bishops on the abortion language.
Moderates Bart Stupak (D-MI) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), two of the central figures in this abortion fight, are currently in the Speaker's office.
Another member said there is a real push among Catholic members who support the bill to get other other, more skeptical, pro-life Catholic Democrats on board.
Also, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is making calls on this. President Obama is supposed to head to the Hill tomorrow to try and wrangle votes.
BUT sources indicate the president's appearance tomorrow is still up in the air, depending on the prospects for success tomorrow. (Perhaps the White House doesn't want the perception of a repeat of Copenhagen to get the Olympics for Chicago.)
THE WEEK AHEAD: Health vote nears ... Obama heads to Asia ... Plouffe book out ... Pawlenty to Mexico ... Spitzer talks ethics? ... Meet the Press has Barbour/Rendell
From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Wendy Jones Hillary Clinton today addressed the first public policy forum of NoLimits.org, an education foundation focusing on issues like work-family policies, healthcare reform and human rights. The nonpartisan group was founded by Ann Lewis, whose brother is House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank .
Clinton said she recognized many friends in the audience, including her best friend from sixth grade, as well as many whom she met "in the cauldron of the 2008 election." She called Lewis Rep. Frank's "long-suffering sister," joking about Lewis's reaction to Frank's speech earlier at the forum: "He did great but his shirt was untucked!"
Although the speech was devoted mostly to Clinton's experience thus far as Secretary of State, she did comment on some of the day's news, expressing optimism about the House passing its health care bill tomorrow.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Doug Adams
There are a couple of different factions. Many of the moderate Blue Dog Democrats think the overall bill is too expensive and chances are a big handful of them will vote against the bill. Then, there are some Democrats in marginal districts who are worried about their re-election race -- in some cases the leadership could give them a pass to oppose.
And two policy sticking points have emerged -- abortion and immigration.
Here's a short primer on those two bugaboos:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
An aide told First Read that "assuming all goes well," they are aiming for a vote late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. The aide, however, conceded the vote could slip later into tomorrow evening.
"We still expect to vote on health care tomorrow," the aide said.
The only thing that could push it off -- aside from not having the votes, and Dems don't have those yet -- are procedural delays by Republicans.
But Republican leadership says that's not part of the plan.
A GOP aide said they are happy to watch Democrats "flopping around like landed haddock." (For those wondering, haddock is a deep water cod.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Luke Russert and Domenico Montanaro
But signs are pointing to a delay to Sunday or possibly next week due, in part, to unresolved issues over abortion and illegal immigration -- as well as the possibility for Republicans to use delay tactics.
Nancy Pelosi , in remarks today, hinted at a delay with this comment: "Within the next few days, the House will vote on the most comprehensive health care legislation in our history."
"Within the next few days...."
Aides to Speaker Pelosi insist they are ready for Saturday action saying, "Our plan is to go tomorrow, which has been clear."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg The race to 218 -- or more: Tomorrow night, the House is expected to vote on the Democrats' health care bill. And from now until then, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's goal -- as well as President Obama’s -- will be this: getting at least 218 votes. The next 48 hours are going to be wild, but considering the country’s focus on the tragedy to Ft. Hood, the battle will take place mostly behind the scenes and out of the media spotlight. President Obama heads to Capitol Hill tomorrow to convince on-the-fence lawmakers. Democrats currently have 258 members, and since we’re expecting zero GOP votes, that means Democrats can lose 40 members. Yet there are Dems concerned about the public option, abortion, and immigration (Congressional Hispanic Caucus members say they will vote against the measure if it prohibits illegal immigrants from being able to purchase insurance in the exchange). While we expect the House to pass the bill, it’s important to note that Pelosi has pointedly NOT said she has the votes. Why? Because she doesn’t have the votes yet. Everything we hear is that Dems have about a little more than 200 votes. Also, the goal isn’t really 218 -- but rather 225, so that there isn't one vote that decides this. You can just picture the TV ads if the bill passes by one vote, right?
*** How Saturday will go: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer explained yesterday on the House floor how Saturday will go, according to NBC’s Luke Russert. "My expectation is that on Saturday we will convene at 9:00 am in the morning. After one-minutes, we will then go to the rule on the health-care bill, and it is my expectation that we will have consideration of the healthcare bill and the Republican substitute. If we proceed a pace and come to vote and disposition on that piece of legislation, we would then adjourn at whatever hour we complete our work and the adjournment would be till the 16th of November.” Hoyer later added, “Again I want to clarify and make sure everybody understands it is our intent to finish the healthcare bill, sometime Saturday night or early Sunday morning, it would be my expectation that there would be no further business till the 16th."
*** Passing the 10% mark: Well, the White House knew it was coming, and now it’s here: The unemployment rate has topped 10% -- the first time since 1983. Per the AP, “The Labor Department says the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September.” But the unemployment rate increased, from 9.8% in Sept. to 10.2% in Oct. It only took about five minutes for Republicans to pounce on the numbers.
*** Brooks vs. Krugman: Interestingly (but not necessarily surprisingly), David Brooks and Paul Krugman offer the White House contradictory advice. Brooks says that Obama needs to play to the middle. “[T]hese voters are not turning to government for support. Trust in government is at its lowest level in recent memory. Over the past year, there has been a shift to the right on issue after issue. According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who believe that there is too much government regulation rose from 38 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in 2009. The percentage of Americans who want unions to have less influence rose from 32 percent to a record 42 percent.” On the other hand, Krugman argues the White House hasn’t been aggressive enough. “President Obama came into office with a strong mandate and proclaimed the need to take bold action on the economy. His actual actions, however, were cautious rather than bold. They were enough to pull the economy back from the brink, but not enough to bring unemployment down.”
*** Stepping on the NY-23 narrative: Turning to Tuesday’s elections, Republicans have had two very good stories to talk about (New Jersey and Virginia) and one they really don’t want to discuss (NY-23). So what did some of their leaders do yesterday? They stepped right on the NY-23 narrative. First was the thousands-strong Tea Party rally/protest/press conference on Capitol Hill -- attended by GOP congressional leaders -- which only furthered the perception (true or not) that the GOP has become captive to its conservative base. Next came RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s apparent warning shot to moderate Republicans who supported the stimulus or health care. “We’ll come after you,” he relayed to ABC. (An RNC spokeswoman told First Read that Steele was referring only to House members, and not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus, and not a single one is expected to back health reform.)
*** Da Club targets Crist: Further stepping on the NY-23 narrative, the Club for Growth is running its first TV ad targeting Charlie Crist . The spot ties the Florida governor to Obama. By the way, a Crist-vs.-Rubio contest all seems to hinge on whether Rubio is the real deal. Somehow, Crist has to make Rubio seem either unelectable or someone who isn't ready. That's not a good place for Crist to be, because he suddenly doesn't have complete control of his destiny. He may have to win in the worst way and then that could make him vulnerable in a general, though many Republicans are extremely confident that Dem nominee-in-waiting Kendrick Meek is beatable by either Republican. The bar for Rubio as a candidate is lower than Crist's. It's going to be a LONG none months between now and the primary for Charlie Crist.
*** Others say David Paterson has been an awesome governor: Well, it doesn’t look like very vulnerable Gov. David Paterson (D) is going to bow out of his race anytime soon. Yesterday, his campaign released two TV ads that will begin airing statewide today. The first takes aim at some of his critics. “Some say I shouldn’t be running for governor,” Paterson says to the camera, singling out state legislators, union leaders, and corporations (but he leaves out the Obama White House, which doesn’t want him running, either). The other ad is a biographical spot. New York’s CBS affiliate also notes that Paterson has hired Harold Ickes for his campaign.
*** Things you might not have known about the VA contest: As it turns out, Creigh Deeds (D) lost the female vote to McDonnell (R), 46%-54%, despite making women’s issues a central part of his campaign; in fact, he was the first statewide Democrat to lose the VA female vote since 2000… Deeds also narrowly lost Fairfax County in Northern Virginia, 49%-51%; by comparison, Obama won it last year, 60%-39% and Tim Kaine won it in 2005, 60%-38%... In addition, Deeds underperformed Kaine in Loudon County and Virginia Beach (which, of course, happens when you lose a race by 18 percentage points)… And turnout was about 1.9 million -- which was equal to the ’05 gubernatorial race, but down from 2006 (2.4 million) and 2008 (3.7 million).
*** Things you might not have known about the NJ contest: Sorry, Bruce, this one’s gotta hurt: If one of us were still working for Asbury Park Press, the daily paper of the Jersey Shore, and home to Springsteen, our headline might be something like this -- “Shore propels Christie to victory.” That’s because Monmouth and Ocean counties, the two counties that make up the Press’ readership, were Christie’s top two vote-getting counties and saw the biggest increases in total vote for the Republican from ’05 to ’09 (+27,000 in Monmouth and +30,000 in Ocean). And the combined vote margin that Christie won by in the two counties over Corzine -- 134,367 -- accounted “for more than his margin of victory,” as the Press wrote yesterday… Corzine also got fewer votes in EVERY single county in the state than he did in ’05, and Christie got MORE votes out of every county than Doug Forrester ’05… Basically, when you look at the entire state, Corzine got destroyed in the suburbs, and although he held margins in traditionally Democratic Counties around New York City and Philadelphia, he got fewer votes out of them. Even though overall turnout was about the same as 2005, it was down in Democratic ones and up in Republican ones.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 32 days
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Former President George W. Bush will deliver a keynote address at SMU on Nov. 12 outlining his vision for his policy institute, which will be part of the George W. Bush Presidential Center, his office said yesterday.
Dana Milbank on yesterday's Tea Party protestors: "Many of the demonstrators chanted 'Weasel Queen,' their pet name for the speaker of the House. Others wore masks of Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); they were covered in fake blood and carrying dolls representing aborted fetuses, as the Grim Reaper led them in chains to hell. In the front of the protest, a sign showed President Obama in white coat, his face painted to look like the Joker. The sign, visible to the lawmakers as they looked into the cameras, carried a plea to 'Stop Obamunism.' A few steps farther was the guy holding a sign announcing 'Obama takes his orders from the Rothchilds' [sic], accusing Obama of being part of a Jewish plot to introduce the antichrist."
Salon’s Mike Madden writes that a small mob of protestors had gathered in the Cannon Office Building “for what anti-choice kook Randall Terry billed as a sit-in to protest abortion-related provisions in the House healthcare reform legislation. They wound up mixing with some of the people who streamed in after Bachmann's ‘House Call’ rally ended to tell members of Congress how vehemently they oppose providing universal access to healthcare. Someone tore up all 1,990 pages of the reform bill and scattered them on the floor; a few of Terry's pals got arrested; the crowd started chanting, ‘Kill the bill! Kill the bill!’ and just like that, the police were clearing the hallway. ‘This is the people's House, and we're being kicked out?’ one woman muttered as she walked away. ‘Nancy Pelosi can kiss my fat ass.’”
Mike Huckabee is out front again of another poll measuring GOP 2012 front runners 71% of Republicans say they’d seriously consider voting for Huckabee; 65% said so of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin; 60% of Newt Gingrich; 32% of Tim Pawlenty; 26% of Haley Barbour.
Sarah Palin will skip New York City on her book tour this month, but here comes the consolation prize: Almost-son-in-law Levi Johnston will be here next week to pocket roughly $100,000 for a nude photo shoot, the New York Daily News writes. “Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee and former Alaska governor, is skipping the customary book-tour stops - in bigger cities - and spending time in smaller burgs to plug her campaign memoir Going Rogue. Palin kicks off the book tour in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Nov. 18."
The Washington Post looks at Nancy Pelosi’s race to get 218 votes. “Although confident of victory, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other Democratic leaders were working to limit defections to the roughly 25 Democrats viewed as "hard no" votes. There will be 258 Democrats in the House by the time the vote takes place, but to secure the 218 votes needed for passage -- and with prospects dim for Republican converts -- Pelosi can afford to lose no more than 40 members of her caucus.”
More: “For party leaders, setting a weekend deadline for passage represented a calculated risk, one that could backfire if the vote -- now expected late Saturday or Sunday -- fails or must be delayed. But they feared that if members were given more time to consider the legislation, new issues could arise, particularly as lawmakers digest the results from Tuesday's elections. Most ominous for Democrats were their losses in gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, although the party did prevail in House special elections in New York and California.”
The New York Times : “Readying for the first floor test of legislation months in the making, top Democrats appealed to undecided lawmakers while trying to quell resistance from Hispanic House members worried the measure was too punitive regarding illegal immigrants and anti-abortion lawmakers who fear that public money could be funneled toward abortions.”
The illegal immigration issue is emerging as the biggest threat to passing healthcare reform in the House, The Hill adds. “Congressional Hispanics have threatened to vote against the bill because of a last-minute threat from within the Democratic Caucus to bolster the House bills immigration restrictions to match those included in the Senate Finance bill. CHC members met with the president at the White House and insisted he drop his opposition to illegal immigrants being able to buy insurance in the exchange.”
"In a step that reflected deep partisan divisions in the Senate over the issue of global warming, Democrats on the Environment and Public Works Committee pushed through a climate bill on Thursday without any debate or participation by Republicans," the New York Times says. "The measure passed by an 11-to-1 vote with the support of all the Democratic committee members except Senator Max Baucus of Montana. The seven Republicans boycotted the committee meetings this week, saying they had not had sufficient time to study the bill... The move suggests that President Obama and Democratic supporters of the bill will have serious problems assembling the votes needed to enact it when it comes to the Senate floor, probably not before next year."
Peace, out? “President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, citing dismay over the progress of US-brokered peace initiatives, said yesterday that he
does not want to run for reelection when his term ends in January, potentially upending the Obama administrations strategy for the region. But advisers and analysts said it was possible he was merely venting frustration over a dialogue with the United States and Israel that has undercut him politically without any marked progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state. I do not wish to run for the upcoming presidential elections, the 74-year-old leader said. This decision is not for negotiation or maneuver.”
MASSACHUSETTS: “Attorney General Martha Coakley, who says she is firmly against capital punishment, has drawn the ire of some death penalty opponents by urging the US Supreme Court to limit federal review of state court decisions, which opponents say could make it harder for defendants on death row to challenge their sentences.”
“Governor Deval Patrick swept through Washington yesterday, wrapping up a two-day tour to advance the states interests in health care, economic development, and transportation - a trip that also let him showcase his access to the city’s most powerful Democrats, including President Obama.”
NEW YORK: “Seeking to dampen continuing speculation that he will drop his quest for election, Gov. David A. Paterson will run his first television ads on Friday,” the New York Times writes. “The two ads, each 30 seconds long, highlight his biography and address criticism Mr. Paterson has faced from labor unions and business interests over his proposed cuts to the state budget. Both directly confront what polls say is Mr. Paterson’s central political problem: widespread public skepticism that he has the ability to lead the state effectively.”
In his first interview since being elected, Chris Christie was asked to name the lowest point in the campaign. To which he replied, “One? He then picked the period when the U.S. Attorneys Office, which he led for seven years, became fodder for attack as Democrats questioned whether Christie used his corruption prosecutions to launch a political career. He said he would not be standoffish to his Democratic opponents during his governorship, because, Christie said, it doesn’t make any sense. You won. That’s the ultimate vindication. But when asked whether he would be drafting an enemies list, Christies response was: Please. I wouldn’t have enough paper.
In his column today, Charlie Cook says that Tuesday's elections only confirmed what we already knew. "We already knew that Democrats had big troubles. We knew that for the past five consecutive elections, the party that had won the White House just a year earlier lost the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia—and that the pattern had a good chance of continuing this year. We knew that the young and minority voters who had never cast a ballot before they did for Barack Obama last year were very unlikely to show up at the polls this year or next. And we already knew that the love affair independents had with Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 was over. Independents haven’t turned against President Obama. They’ve just stepped back, become more skeptical, and to some extent begun turning on Democrats as a party."
And in his latest National Journal column, Ron Brownstein, notes how young voters, independents, and the suburbs turned away from the Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. "None of this guarantees Democrats will lose these voters in 2010, but it does suggest they need to mend fences. Economic recovery, of course, would help them everywhere."
From NBC's Michelle Perry James Clyburn (D-SC) acknowledged that House Dems still need to work out the abortion issue in the healthcare reform bill ahead of Saturday's vote. Clyburn told NBC's Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports ," that the House bill is in a good place on substance, but some remain "skittish" about the language that goes into the bill on abortion.
The potential stumbling block is whether or not the House bill would include explicit language restricting the use of federal money to pay for abortions. Moderate Blue Dog Democrats have threatened to oppose the bill if it doesn't.
"Both sides want to make sure that we don't put wording in here that will cause a tilt one way or the other," Clyburn told Mitchell, "and so that's the problem."
While Clyburn said that everyone is agreeable, that they express language in the bill that would not allow for federal funding for abortions, he added they are looking for a way to "wall off" the money. Right now moderate Dems remain concerned that there are still areas where the money is fungible.
That said, Clyburn thinks the issue will be resolved and they will have the votes necessary to pass the bill.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Doug Hoffman -- who eventually lost to the Democrat -- is back at it.
It is pushing for Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the Florida GOP primary. And now it created the below video, hitting Crist on his support for the stimulus back in February in an appearance with President Obama . The video is appearing online for now, but a spokesman says it will be going on air with it "soon."
The ad was created as a response to Crist's appearance on CNN , in which he tried to parse his own support for the stimulus.
"I didn't endorse it," Crist said. "I didn't even have a vote on the darned thing. But I understood that it was going to pass and I wanted to be able to utilize it for the benefit of my fellow Floridians."
"Didn't endorse it?" What do you call, as the ad points out, Crist saying the following? "We know that it's important that we pass the stimulus package."
By the way, the club goes all Lieberman -Bush kiss with its final shot in the ad, a slow-motion hug between Crist and Obama. It's the first tactic of its kind. And we're going to see LOTS more of this, particularly with the White House essentially saying bring it on -- make 2010 about Obama.
Get ready.
Stimulus. Health care. They are going to be -- and already are -- key 2010 issues in GOP primaries, in particular. Moderates face the challenge of surviving their stance on them in a primary and then trying to tack to the center in a general -- if the economy gets better. (There won't be a real measure of health reform for a while if it passes, since it won't go into effect for years.)
From NBC's Scott Foster President Obama took to the bully pulpit today with a surprise stop at the daily White House briefing to tout two influential endorsements of his health care reform plan by the AARP and American Medical Association.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray In an interview today with ABC , Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele appeared to fire off this warning shot to Republican moderates who supported the economic stimulus (like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins ) or who might support health-care reform (like Snowe):
"We'll come after you."
Crist, of course, is competing in a Senate primary against the conservative Marco Rubio.
Here's the passage:
"People aren't buying that. So candidates who live in moderate to slightly liberal districts have got to walk a little bit carefully here, because you do not want to put yourself in a position where you're crossing that line on conservative principles, fiscal principles, because we'll come after you."
Earlier this year, Steele suggested in a FOX interview that the three Senate Republicans who voted for the stimulus -- Snowe, Collins, and Arlen Specter (who later switched parties) -- might face primary challenges and might not receive funds from the RNC.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray Mark Kirk -Sarah Palin story.
A quick recap: First, the Washington Post's Cillizza got his hands on Kirk's letter to Palin friend Fred Malek, inquiring if Palin might endorse the Illinois congressman in his Senate primary. Then, as we reported earlier today , one of Kirk's conservative primary opponents blasted this appeal to Palin, noting Kirk's vote for the cap-and-trade bill.
Dear Governor Palin,
Yesterday, following the purge of a moderate Republican in upstate New York and the devastating special election in NY-23, it was revealed that Congressman Mark Kirk is actively seeking your endorsement of his candidacy in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois. However, Mark Kirk has not had kind words to say about you in the past. Faced with a difficult re-election race in 2008, Kirk told reporters he “would have picked someone else” for Vice-President and that frankly he “didn’t know whether you are qualified to be President.” Now that Kirk is facing a tough primary challenge from the anti-Washington, anti-establishment candidate Patrick Hughes, he is suddenly racing to embrace you. I’m not sure how familiar you are with Mark Kirk but he is a politician who has a history of putting politics above principals, something you surely look down upon. Whether the issue is cap and trade, extending unemployment benefits, or health care reform, Kirk has either flip-flopped, been AWOL, or motivated purely by politics. On the other hand, Patrick Hughes is comfortable in his own skin as an extreme right-winger. Unlike the pro-abortion Kirk, Hughes is firmly pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and pro-gun…sounds like your type of Republican. I know you are in Milwaukee tomorrow and will be in our great state of Illinois later this month, both would be a perfect setting to give your blessing to one of these two candidates. With so much at stake in the next election, everyone wants to know -- who will you endorse in our Senate race?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
And here's a compilation of some of what we've written over the past few days going inside these numbers.
As we wrote in First Thoughts yesterday: The election provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.
Video: Chuck Todd's Nightly News spot on the economic worries in 2009 election
Chuck's broader TODAY show spot
Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain , while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro NBC's Luke Russert , reporting from the West Front of the Capitol, passes along this photo of a cartoon Pelosi with the words "UNAMERICAN MCCARTHYITE" scrawled across.
The crowd, per Russert, is so far about 3,000 to 3,500, according to Capitol Police estimates.
During actor Jon Voight's speech, he had some pretty hot moments:
"His only success in one year as president is taking America apart piece by piece," Voight said. "Could it be 20 years of 'subconscious programming' from Reverend Wright to damn America?"
More to come...
*** UPDATE *** Here's a wide shot picture of the crowd .)
At least 45 to 60 GOP members lined up behind the podium.
Here are some of the more jaw-dropping signs seen at the rally:
"Get the Red Out of the White House."
"Waterboard Congress"
"Traitor to the U.S. Constitution" (Picture of Obama on sign)
"Un-American McCarthyite" (with picture of Pelosi)
"I'm the King of the World: Remember the Titanic?" (Drawing of Obama in the mold of the 'Jovial Sambo' from the Jim Crow era doing the Leo Titanic pose."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Patrick Hughes , a conservative running for Obama's U.S. Senate seat next year, is out with a statement after the news came out of his primary opponent Mark Kirk 's appeal to Sarah Palin for her endorsement.
"I believe Mark Kirk, who has consistently supported President Obama's legislative agenda, including cap and trade legislation, is quickly realizing that Republican Primary voters do not share his extreme views," Hughes said in a statement released by his campaign. "In a desperate attempt to prove otherwise, he is seeking the endorsement of Sarah Palin, a true Reagan conservative, to help disguise his liberal voting record."
Hughes, an attorney and Chicago-area developer, is also the chairman of the recently created PAC Sensible Taxpayers Opposed to Increased Taxes, or STOP-IT . It was created, according to the STOP-IT Web site, "in the aftermath of Taxpayer 'Tea Party' protests ... to oppose Governor Patrick Quinn ’s proposals to increase corporate and individual tax rates by 50%."
*** UPDATE ***
"We have been in contact with Sarah PAC and many other conservative PACs," said Laura Grock, spokeswoman for Hughes. None has offered help YET, "but would graciously accept the support of a true Reagan Conservative like Sarah Palin," Grock said.
CONTINUED >>
Got a question about Tuesday's election results? Ask NBC's Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd, who will be chatting live today at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click here to bookmark the chat, which will go live at 2:30.
From NBC's Joel Seidman
"We started this debate more than two years ago with the twin goals of making coverage affordable to our younger member and protecting Medicare for Seniors," said AARP CEO Barry Rand in a written statement. "We've read the Affordable Health Care for America Act and we can say with confidence that it meets those goals with improved benefits for people in Medicare and needed health insurance market reforms to help ensure every American can purchase affordable health coverage."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Eric Cantor has a Web video -- with big, orchestral Americana string music -- touting how much smaller the GOP-proposed House health-reform bill is than the Democrats' almost-2,000-page bill:
So is smaller better? Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Ezra Klein at the Washington Post , the left-leaning, but highly respected reporter who's been all over health policy, writes of the GOP bill:
According to CBO, the GOP's alternative will shave $68 billion off the deficit in the next 10 years. The Democrats, CBO says, will slice $104 billion off the deficit.
The Democratic bill, in other words, covers 12 times as many people and saves $36 billion more than the Republican plan. And amazingly, the Democratic bill has already been through three committees and a merger process. It's already been shown to interest groups and advocacy organizations and industry stakeholders. It's already made its compromises with reality. It's already been through the legislative sausage grinder. And yet it saves more money and covers more people than the blank-slate alternative proposed by John Boehner and the House Republicans. The Democrats, constrained by reality, produced a far better plan than Boehner, who was constrained solely by his political imagination and legislative skill.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Owning the results : By yesterday offering up two top White House aides -- David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs -- to talk about Tuesday’s elections, the White House decided to own the results. And the move seemed to send two signals: 1) they believe the outcomes weren’t as disastrous as some in the chattering class were making them out to be, and 2) they don't want to look as if they are thick-headed and don't see the obvious -- that their party didn't do well in a VERY important swing state, Virginia.
*** Nationalizing 2010 : In Axelrod’s interview with one of us, he talked about the Democrats’ turnout problem on Tuesday, and he claimed that if they nationalize 2010, they won't have that problem. Translation: The White House is going to take a page from the 2002 White House playbook, which is to nationalize the midterms and try and do it on your terms. The downside of trying to AVOID nationalizing 2010 is what happened in Virginia -- the base doesn't show up, etc. So if the White House wants to minimize losses in 2010, then it has to get as many of their 2008 voters to the polls. And that means the president has to be front and center. Axelrod made that crystal clear in his interview.
*** Tea’d off : Two days after their victories in New Jersey and Virginia (where their candidates played down their conservatism and didn’t run directly against President Obama) and their loss in NY-23 (where a conservative-vs.-moderate split led to their defeat), Republicans today are welcoming conservative Tea Party activists to Capitol Hill to protest the Democrats’ health-care legislation. Organizer Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), per NBC’s Luke Russert, has called the event “The Super Bowl of Freedom.” In fact, today’s conservative gathering epitomizes this challenge for Republicans: How do you tap into a fired-up conservative base (which obviously benefited them in NJ and VA) but make sure that base doesn’t begin eating its own (which happened in NY-23). By the way, there have been a couple of interesting developments in the wake of NY-23: 1) NRSC Chair John Cornyn saying that his committee would not be spending any money where there are contested GOP primaries, which seems as a response to its earlier endorsement of Charlie Crist in Florida, and 2) Senate candidate Mark Kirk seeking Palin’s endorsement to help him survive the primary challenge he’s receiving from the right in Illinois.
*** Does Kirk really want Palin by his side in Illinois? By the way, Kirk’s move is fascinating. One Republican said to us that it seemed ham-handed. Added this Republican: What if Kirk gets the endorsement? Does he want her as a running mate in Illinois? Does he want to nationalize his race in this blue home state of the president? Maybe, the decision was, "If you ask her for the endorsement, she'll at least STAY OUT of the primary.” But it's awfully high risk for the general. Don’t forget -- Kirk's primary is the next one on the political calendar of any consequence.
*** Don’t lose focus on the Dem primaries : While we’ve focused on the upcoming 2010 GOP primaries in the wake of what happened in NY-23, Republicans have reminded us that Democrats face some pretty contentious primaries next year, too. In Colorado, incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet is receiving a challenge from Andrew Romanoff; in Pennsylvania, there’s the Specter-vs.-Sestak showdown; in Kentucky, Jack Conway is battling Dan Mongiardo; and in Ohio, the DSCC has appeared to take sides in the Fisher-vs.-Brunner contest. But the big difference to us -- so far -- is that the Democratic primaries don’t seem to be the rallying cry for liberals the same way that the Republican primaries have become for conservatives. After all, we haven’t seen Joe Sestak on the cover of The Nation the same way that National Review had Marco Rubio on its cover.
*** The great American health-care fight : In addition to today’s conservative protests on Capitol Hill, AARP is set to endorse the House Democratic health-care bill… The House is slated to vote on that bill this coming Saturday… And liberal-leaning Americans United for Change says it’s airing a new TV ad ($17,000 buy on DC-area cable) criticizing the House GOP health plan.
*** Get it done -- now : In a way, you can see the House decision to vote on health care this Saturday as a direct response to the elections. Bottom line: Don't give wavering lawmakers more time over the weekend to think about the election results or listen to punditry; just get their vote done. Also, the quick health-care vote is an attempt to put some pressure on the Senate. The fact is this: If health care slips into 2010, it could die… One other point: The last thing the White House needed was Nancy Pelosi to say "we won" like she did yesterday . One could make an argument that the House Democrats DID have a good Tuesday night. And, strategically, the DCCC looks like a smooth operation (like the NRCC did circa 2000-2004). But, tonally, was it helpful to her party to verbalize what she believed as far as this fact is concerned? It gave the cablers and the intertubes something to rally around and debate in a superficial way that only puts the speaker in a more negative light.
*** Obama’s day : President Obama delivers opening remarks (at 9:30 am ET) and then closing remarks (at 4:50 pm) at a White House-sponsored Tribal Nations Conference that takes place at the Interior Department. Per the White House, this conference “will provide leaders from the 564 federally recognized tribes the opportunity to interact directly with the president and representatives from the highest levels of his administration. Each federally recognized tribe has been invited to send one representative to the conference.” Also on his calendar today, Obama meets with President Ian Khama of Botswana (pool spray), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (closed press), Vice President Biden (closed press), and Secretary of State Clinton (closed press).
*** Also today : First Lady Michelle Obama speaks at the Department of Energy before leading a practice session for students participating in the Science Bowl at 2:00 pm ET… Vice President Biden hosts a panel on challenges facing the middle class at 10:30 am… On Capitol Hill, Democrats Bill Owens and John Garamendi, winners of special elections in NY-23 and CA-10, respectively, are sworn in… And Secretary of State Clinton meets with Germany's foreign minister (at 1:15 pm), then with the families of the missing hikers in Iran (3:00 pm), and then with National Security Council principals at the White House (5:00 pm). Speaking of Clinton, she’s the cover of the latest issue of Time magazine .
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 33 days
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Congressional Democrats seem to have two different ideas on what Tuesday’s elections meant for their party, the Washington Post says. “[M]oderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. Liberal lawmakers, meanwhile, said the party's shortcoming came in moving too slowly on health-care reform and other items that would satisfy a base becoming disenchanted with the failure to deliver rapid change in government.”
Roll Call notes that moderates' opinions on health reform legislation didn't change because of the elections.
The New York Times front-pages, “Republicans emerged from Tuesday’s elections energized by victories in Virginia and New Jersey, but their leaders immediately began maneuvering to avoid a prolonged battle with conservative activists over what the party stands for and how to regain power… Despite Mr. Hoffman’s loss [in NY-23], many conservatives promised to press on with opposition to centrist Republican candidates. That vow intensified concerns among party leaders that the opportunities they see coming out of Tuesday’s results could be dimmed by intramural battles over whether to reach for the political center or do more to motivate the base on the party’s right.”
The Washington Post adds that the GOP’s “fortunes in next year's midterm elections may rest in its ability to harness a populist wave of voter discontent with Washington and government spending. But the surprising Democratic victory in the New York congressional election -- despite the intervention of conservative activists -- for a seat the GOP held for more than a century was sobering evidence that rallying behind conservative candidates may not be the answer.”
CONTINUED >>
"The House is headed toward a rare Saturday evening vote as Democratic leaders scramble to placate party factions threatening to defeat the healthcare bill over hot button issues such as spending, immigration and abortion," The Hill reports.
Here's The Hill's tally of who would likely vote how -- so far.
The AARP is set to endorse the Democratic health-care reform measure that the House will vote on this Saturday. “In a coup for House Democrats, AARP will endorse sweeping health care overhaul legislation headed for a history-making floor vote, officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday,” the AP writes. “An endorsement from the seniors' lobby was critical when then-President George W. Bush pushed the Medicare prescription drug benefit through a closely divided Congress in 2003. House Democratic leaders are hoping it will work the same political magic for them as they strive to deliver on President Barack Obama's signature issue.”
“House Democratic leaders struggled Wednesday to strike a deal that would restrict the use of federal money to pay for abortions under sweeping health care legislation headed for debate on the House floor this week,” the New York Times notes.
CONTINUED >>
"The government’s latest tally of stimulus jobs counted pay increases for existing workers as jobs saved in a popular federal preschool program, raising fresh questions about the process the Obama administration is using to tout the success of its $787 billion economic recovery plan," the AP says. "A review of the latest stimulus reports - which the White House promised would undergo extensive reviews to ensure accuracy - found that more than two-thirds of 14,506 jobs credited to the recovery act by Head Start programs involved pay increases." AP notes. "My father beat my mother and my father beat me, and you don't do that," said Ndesandjo, whose mother, Ruth Nidesand, was Barack Obama Sr.'s third wife. "It's something which I think affected me for a long time, and it's something that I've just recently come to terms with."
From NBC's Lisa Myers and Kelly Paice President Obama signed the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009, which enforces strict rules for credit card companies -- in particular, outlawing retroactive rate increases on credit card balances and regulating fees.
These rules were set to go into effect Feb. 2010; however, House Democrats today expressed their disapproval of how banks have handled the interim period, with some calling it outright abuse. They called instead for those regulations to now take effect Dec. 1. The bill was approved, 331-92 .
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly Paice
To name a few, in Maine, voters repealed the state's law allowing same-sex marriage, a law that was signed by Gov. John Baldacci (D) only six months ago. According to the AP, the repeal passed by a 53%-47% margin. Also, a measure in Washington state that would expand rights and responsibilities to those in same-sex domestic partnerships is ahead 51%-49%, with 50% of precincts counted.
Cha-ching! Ohio voters called for the building of four casinos across the state -- in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Mary Norwood (I) and state Sen. Kasim Reed ( D). According to the AP, Norwood received 45% of the vote and Reed got 38%. If elected, Norwood would become the city's first white mayor since 1973. John W. Lassiter (R) than his opponent, councilman Anthony Foxx (D), the latter won the election by nearly 3,000 votes, becoming the first Democratic mayor of the city in 21 years. Mark Mallory of Cincinnati and Frank G. Jackson of Cleveland won re-election. Both supported the Ohio ballot initiative authorizing casino construction in four cities. Mike Bell defeated Democrat (and high school classmate) Keith Wilkowski , 52%-48%. Bell supports the approved casino initiative in Toledo.Dave Bing (D) received 58% of the vote to win his first full term after replacing scandal-plagued ex-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick in a May special election.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
But the GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia don’t necessarily tell us all that much about how the party will fare in next year’s midterm elections: Gubernatorial races generally say less about the national dynamic than they do local issues, and that's certainly true this year.
In New Jersey, Chris Christie 's win over Jon Corzine demonstrated that under the right circumstances the GOP can be successful in a blue state. He pulled it off by capitalizing on the state’s troubled economic environment.
Virginia’s gubernatorial race was for an open seat -- as it incredibly is every four years -- and it was an uphill battle for the Democrats from the beginning. Democrat Creigh Deeds was not a solid candidate, but there were few, if any, alternatives, who could have beaten Bob McDonnell , a solid candidate.
Upstate New Yorkers don't like carpetbaggers. The Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman , didn't live in the district, became the national candidate, and didn't have a command of local issues. The local candidate who best understood that district -- Democrat Bill Owens -- won.
For more, read the full story here.
From NBC's Mark Murray David Axelrod today argued that it would be wrong to read too much into last night's GOP gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia -- and what they might mean for next year's midterm elections.
And if you read us earlier this morning , Axelrod does seem to have a point.
But looking back at First Read's coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel -- then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff -- had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.
Here's what we wrote then:
Kaine' s and Corzine's victories were announced, argued that it's clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. "I think that's even more true today." He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing. "A lot of incumbents are losing to change," he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Luke Russert Baron Hill (D-IN), House Democrats will vote on health-care reform Saturday at 6:00 pm ET.
It is possible that the vote could come before 6:00 pm. But, according to Hill, 6:00 pm is "when it is all going down."
Hill said he did not know whether or not Speaker Pelosi had enough votes to pass reform.
Hill also said that numerous members have told them "we're very close."
You may remember Hill as one of the influential Blue Dog Democrats who was one of the deal-brokers for health-care reform to get out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee back in July.
From NBC's Madeline Rullo Nancy Pelosi's weekly briefing today, she commented on last night's elections, simply stating, "We won last night."
Question: "Madame speaker, Madame speaker, do the election results last night -- do they make it harder for you to pass health care, especially to get the support from members in these swing districts?"
Pelosi's answer: "From my perspective, we won last night. We had one race that we were engaged in -- it was in northern New York. It was a race where a Republican has held a seat since the Civil War, and we won that seat. So from our standpoint, no. We had a candidate that was victorious who supports the health-care reform... So from our standpoint, we picked up voted last night, one in California [CA-10] and one in New York."
From NBC’s Madeline Rullo President Obama 's healthcare speech before a joint session of Congress in September, Rep. Joe Wilson is speaking out again.
It's still about healthcare, but this time he's speaking in turn. Wilson is introducing an amendment for the Democratic healthcare bill, requiring all members of Congress to enroll in the public option.
Wilson says he has been bombarded with questions from American citizens, "If this public option is so good, then why don't the congressmen take the plan? After about eight times of bringing this up, I said, ‘Enough already.’ I said, ‘I would introduce that when I come back to Washington.’”
And he has.
"People have spoken up and they're making a difference,” Wilson said, holding up the House bill that will be brought to the floor later this week.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Pete Williams
The case involved a radical Egyptian cleric, Abu Omar, who was picked up on a street in Milan in February 2003 and taken to Egypt. When he was released four years later, he claimed he was brutally tortured by the Egyptian intelligence service. Italian authorities then prosecuted the Americans and members of Italy's military intelligence service.
Today, the judge sentenced 22 of the Americans to five years in prison. The other, a former CIA station chief in Milan, was sentenced to eight years. Three other Americans were originally charged, but the judge ruled today that they had diplomatic immunity. Because they were not in Italy during the trial, they remain free.
The trial has been a sore point in relations between the U.S. and Italy. Despite calls from international human rights groups, the Italians have not sought the extradition of the Americans. Prosecutors there say they will try again, but that will be up to Italy's justice ministry.
CONTINUED >>
What conservatives just don't get about NY-23's message
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Sarah Palin 's message for the tribe was essentially: The sky IS red, conservatives.
A defiant Palin wrote on her Facebook page last night, "The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010."
You betcha!
Those who thought a loss for the Conservative Party candidate,
Doug Hoffman , was a setback for the conservative movement are probably right, but that's no matter to Palin-ites. They'd argue they only lost because the stodgy Republican establishment didn't embrace Hoffman SOONER.
That's highly arguable, considering Hoffman's lack of knowledge of local issues, his carpetbagger status (he doesn't live in NY-23), and his just overall poor appearance as a candidate. He was always more of an idea. He wouldn't even meet with the Syracuse Post-Standard's editorial board , but who could blame him after his disastrous appearance before the local Watertown Daily Times .
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Last Night’s Lessons: What a difference a year makes. Exactly a year to the day when Barack Obama celebrated his presidential victory in Grant Park and Democrats picked up additional seats in the House and Senate, Republicans are now basking in their gubernatorial sweep from last night. In Virginia, as expected, Bob McDonnell (R) crushed Creigh Deeds (D). And in that close contest in New Jersey, challenger Chris Christie (R) bested incumbent Jon Corzine (D). Yet in perhaps the most surprising result of the night, Bill Owens (D) ended up beating third-party candidate Doug Hoffman in that NY-23 special election after conservatives forced the moderate GOP nominee to withdraw from the race. As we've written, the lessons from last night's contests have been evident for quite some time. And how 2010 and 2012 turn out could very well depend on which party does a better -- or poorer -- job of learning from them.
*** Lesson No. 1: Democrats Lost Indies: For the White House, last night's exit polls confirmed that the outcomes weren't exactly a referendum on President Obama. But they also provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.
*** Lesson No. 2: Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.
*** Lesson No. 3: Incumbents, Watch Out: Another takeaway from last night was that it wasn’t a good night to be an incumbent -- or a wealthy self-funder. After outspending his GOP opponent 3-1 (and 2-1 when you included money from the parties), Jon Corzine lost in New Jersey. More surprisingly, Michael Bloomberg (I) won by only five percentage points after spending some $100 million (!!!) against his under-funded Democratic challenger. The House, Senate, and gubernatorial incumbents running for re-election next year better figure out how to run as the outsider.
*** Lesson No. 4: Ideological Civil Wars Don’t Help You Win Elections: In NY-23, Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a district they’ve controlled since the 19th century after prominent conservatives -- Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Club for Growth, Tea Party organizers -- backed the more conservative candidate (Hoffman), which eventually forced the moderate GOP nominee (Scozzafava) to withdraw from the race. That enabled the Democrat (Owens) to win, 49%-45%, with Scozzafava becoming the spoiler by getting 6%. Ponder this: Was it a better night to be a Republican running toward the middle, or a conservative running on base issues? Consider the NY 23 result and the fact that BOTH anti-tax initiatives on the ballot in Maine and Washington went down... Also consider that McDonnell and Christie didn't run AGAINST the president but hugged the middle; Christie's victory speech, in fact, was a page out of the Obama playbook. (Literally, he used the phrase "turn the page" and said hope and opportunity a few times). By the way, the GOP now controls just two out of New York's 29 congressional districts and it has lost six seats Upstate NY since 2006. It holds no seats in New England, just one in traditionally conservative Upstate New York, and one out in Long Island.
:
Chuck Todd breaks down the 2009 election results and what they mean to President Obama and the Democratic Party. ***
History repeats itself: After a while, you can’t dismiss these trends: Yesterday became the NINTH-consecutive time (since 1977) that the party that won the White House lost Virginia’s gubernatorial contest the following year. And yesterday became the SIXTH-consecutive time (since 1989) that the party controlling the White House lost New Jersey’s gov race. Whether due to buyer’s remorse, happenstance, or a combination of the two, those trends should give all us pause in making broad statements about last night’s two contests -- and what they mean for the White House, the midterms, or the next presidential contest.
*** Hailing Haley: If there was one big winner from last, it was Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and his Republican Governors Association. In what turned out to be a brilliant move, the RGA ran TV ads attacking independent Chris Daggett. What happened? Daggett got just 6% of the vote, which was down considerably from the double digits he was receiving in polls just a week or two ago. As one very smart Democratic pollster told First Read, Corzine’s best path to victory was having Daggett get 12% of the vote, enabling Corzine to win with at 45%. As it turns out, Corzine got his 45%. But with Daggett getting only 6%, that’s how Christie was able to win, 49%-45%.
*** Grading the party committees: The RGA and DCCC can both say they went 2-0 last night, as the DCCC won in NY-23 and CA-10. NRCC Chair Pete Sessions needs to hope activists are so euphoric about Virginia and New Jersey that they don't decide to hold Sessions accountable for the fact that Scozzafava turned out to be the spoiler for Hoffman. Also, DNC Chair Tim Kaine is going to have to explain how Deeds was not just outspent in Kaine's home state, but why the committee didn't step in when it was crystal clear the campaign was a problem MONTHS ago. To some Democrats, there's an appearance that Kaine's DNC gave up on Virginia so early that it created a snowball effect that clobbered the party up and down the ballot.
*** The White House/Pelosi/Reid healthcare challenge: Incumbent Democrats will read the Corzine loss and the independent-voter slaughter in both swing Virginia and blue New Jersey as a sign they need to go a LOT slower on health care and energy. The Washington Dem leadership is going to have to figure out how to convince some skeptical Blue Dogs and conservative Democrats that passing something is better than passing nothing. It's going to be an argument that heats up big time, as Democratic activists argue the Virginia result is more about a depressed base than it is about an angry middle. Pelosi didn't have the votes for health care yesterday, is she farther away today? On the other hand, does getting health care passed actually boost Obama’s (and Democrats’) numbers?
*** Just askin’: If supporters of same-sex marriage couldn’t win ballot initiatives in deep-blue California (in an election Democrats overwhelmingly won) and in Maine, where can they win?
*** Obama’s day: President Obama today leaves Washington for Wisconsin, where he will give a speech on education at 2:30 pm ET. Here’s a little political trivia for you. In 2004, Wisconsin was the closest state in the presidential election, going to John Kerry by just 0.38 percentage points over George W. Bush. But, in 2008, Obama won it by almost 14 percentage points (56.2% to 42.3%) over John McCain. It was the largest margin of victory in Wisconsin by any presidential candidate since 1964 when Johnson defeated Goldwater 62%-38%. The state was also a key primary victory for Obama, whose political home state of Illinois shares a border with Wisconsin.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 34 days
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"Republicans swept contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday as voters went to the polls filled with economic uncertainty, dealing President Obama a setback and building momentum for a Republican comeback attempt in next year’s midterm Congressional elections," the New York Times writes. "But in a closely watched Congressional race in upstate New York, a Democrat who received a late push from the White House triumphed over a conservative candidate who attracted national backers ranging from Rush Limbaugh to Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor."
The Times’ Nagourney adds, “The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles.”
The Washington Post’s Balz : “Off-year elections can be notoriously unreliable as predictors of the future, but as a window on how the political landscape may have changed in the year since President Obama won the White House, Tuesday's Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey delivered clear warnings for the Democrats. Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections.”
Politico: “The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama’s political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy.”
CONTINUED >>
In CA-10, John Garamendi won the special election there 55%-40% with 50% of precincts reporting last night. Garamendi doesn't live in the district.
By the way, "After months of speculation but few public appearances, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina was expected to announce her plans Wednesday for the U.S. Senate seat held by liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer of California. Fiorina's campaign said she was to make 'a major announcement' during an appearance at a business in the Orange County city of Garden Grove Wednesday morning," the AP says.
"Maine voters overturned the state’s same-sex marriage law yesterday, delivering a potentially crushing blow to gay-rights advocates after a year when their cause seemed to be gaining momentum with legislative and legal victories in four states. As the ballot counting continued well past midnight, the margin continued to grow -- with 52.7 percent of voters in favor of the repeal -- and the
Associated Press called the contest in favor of gay-marriage foes shortly before 1 a.m. The 'people’s veto' came six months after Maine’s law was approved, and one year after California voters rejected gay marriage by a similar margin."
"Sixteen years after he rose to power as an unassuming master of street-level minutiae, Thomas Michael Menino cemented his place as a singular force in urban American politics yesterday, withstanding his fiercest challenge yet to capture an unprecedented fifth term in office and extend the longest mayoral reign in Boston’s history," The
Boston Globe reports. "The 66-year-old former insurance salesman from Hyde Park easily defeated Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr., 57 percent to 42 percent. More than 110,000 voters went to the polls, the highest number in a mayoral election since 1993."
“Christopher J. Christie, became the first Republican to win statewide in 12 years by vowing to attack the state’s fiscal problems with the same aggressiveness he used to lock up corrupt politicians,” the New York Times says. “He overcame a huge Democratic voter advantage and a relentless barrage of negative commercials to defeat Jon S. Corzine, an unpopular incumbent who outspent him by more than two to one and drew heavily on political help from the White House, including three visits to the state from President Obama.”
:
Rachel Maddow is joined by Princeton University professor Melissa Haris-Lacewell to help interpret the results from the N.J. governor's race. The New York Post : "Chris Christie last night became the first Republican to be elected governor of New Jersey in more than a decade -- a stunning triumph that came just days after President Obama put his prestige on the line and visited the Garden State to urge voters to re-elect Democrat Jon Corzine."
The AP called Christie's win "the darling of New Jersey's Republican Party establishment” after unseating the "deep-pocketed but unpopular" incumbent Jon Corzine. Christie "became the first member of his party in a dozen years to win a statewide contest in heavily Democratic New Jersey," despite heavy investments of time and money by Corzine and national Democratic leaders, including President Barack Obama.
CONTINUED >>
The AP writes, "President Barack Obama's decision in June to appoint a Republican congressman to a Pentagon post has paid dividends in November now that Democrats have gained the House seat by capitalizing on a split between moderates and conservatives in the GOP. Lawyer and retired Air Force Capt. Bill Owens won the special election Tuesday in northern New York in which the Republican candidate withdrew over the weekend under pressure from the party's right wing and GOP heavyweights endorsed the Conservative Party nominee."
"Hoffman's far-flung supporters cast the election as a referendum on a perceived leftward lurch by political leaders of both parties," The New York Post writes. "Facing desertion from the right, Scozzafava abruptly suspended her campaign over the weekend and endorsed Owens. The move freed up labor unions, which had previously split their support, to rally behind Owens." New York Daily News writes.
CONTINUED >>
The AP : "In Associated Press surveys at polling places statewide, about eight in 10 voters said they were worried about the direction of the nation's economy, and the majority of those favored McDonnell. He built his political career as a social conservative and abortion opponent but focused his campaign on employment and closing the budget gap without raising taxes." Richmond Times-Dispatch writes that McDonnell “created a model for other Republican candidates,” by “emphasiz[ing] jobs creation and de-emphasiz[ing] social issues,” despite McDonnell’s graduate thesis, revealed in August, which “appeared to demean women.”
The Washington Post also spotlights McDonnell’s avoidance of social issues, writing that he “crafted his campaign around particular concerns... He reached out to minority communities and drilled so deeply into local concerns that he was discussing Lyme disease in one neighborhood and Guantanamo Bay prisoners in another.” McDonnell’s resulting win everywhere but the “liberal heartlands” shows that “Democrats cannot take Northern Virginia for granted despite an influx of young, minority voters who tend to vote Democratic.”
The
AP previews Obama’s trip to Wisconsin today. "One year after his election, President Barack Obama is coaxing states across the country to rewrite education laws and cut deals with unions as they pursue his vision for school reform. Obama is visiting Wisconsin, where lawmakers are poised to change a law to boost their state's chances at $5 billion in education grants, the most money a president has ever had for overhauling schools. Nine other states have taken similar steps, even though states can't apply for the money yet and only a few states may end up getting grants… Wisconsin lawmakers planned to vote Thursday to lift a ban on using student test scores to judge teachers. That helps clear the way for an Obama priority, teacher pay tied to student performance."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd congressional district special election, 49%-45% (with 92% of the voting in), becoming the first Democrat to control the district since at least the 1890s.
The results came in overnight and was finally called around 1:00 am ET.
It was something of an upset after it was widely considered a likely victory for Hoffman after the Republican pick, Dede Scozzafava , dropped out of the race over the weekend. Scozzafava did, however, endorse Owens -- though it was unclear what effect that would have.
It's a victory also for the DCCC, which has now won two competitive special elections in once-traditionally conservative Upstate New York since Obama has become president.
Republicans now control just two of 29 districts in New York State -- one Upstate and one in Long Island. They have lost six districts Upstate just since 2006. They control zero seats in all of New England.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Bill Owens is up by just 2,500 votes or about 2%, and there are still about 11,000 absentee ballots that have to be counted. They won't start counting those until the morning, our Elections Unit tells us.
So, we're calling it a night. See you in the morning.
From NBC's Shawna Thomas Christie should be speaking within the next half hour and Gov. Corzine finishes his concession speech, no one at the Christie Headquarters has officially announced the win.
The screens in the room did not show Corzine's concession speech.
While the news is clearly trickling through the crowd, it doesn't feel like everyone is sure of the outcome even as people start chants of "We want Chris!"
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Chuck Todd
With 94% in, Bloomberg was up just 50%-46%.
Best our election team can tell, Bloomberg SHOULD hang on as there is more of Queens out than any other part of the city. And for the record, NBC News has NOT called the race for Bloomberg; We reported the call of exit pollster, EMR. They pulled their call.
In NY-23, Democrat Bill Owens was up 49-46 with 59% in.
*** UPDATE ***
*** UPDATE 2 *** In NY-23, The voting is going very slowly with a few towns reporting issues with ballot machines meaning those votes may not be counted for quite awhile.
*** UPDATE 3 *** NY-23: 77% in, Owens still up -- 49-45 now
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Virginia Governor-elect
Bob McDonnell thanked independent and Democratic voters who supported him, as well as his Democratic opponent
Creigh Deeds , during his acceptance speech this evening.
"One of the reasons I think we were so successful with [Attorney General-elect]
Ken [Cucinelli ] and [Lieutenant Governor-elect]
Bill [Bolling ] and me tonight was we had independents and Democrats who came over to support us," McDonnell said, singling out one high-profile Democratic supporter, Sheila Johnson, the co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, calling her "my favorite Democrat."
McDonnell said he "looks forward" to working with Deeds, a state senator: "Creigh Deeds is a good public servant, and what we're going to need over the next few years is good public servants."
From NBC's Mark Murray Chris Christie (R) the winner in New Jersey's gubernatorial contest.
Republicans sweep the two gubernatorial races.
From NBC's Shawna Thomas Just a few minutes ago, New Jersey state Sen. Joe Kyrillos,
Chris Christie's campaign chairman, took to the stage amid chants of "Red State! Red State." He warned the crowd that it could be a long night and rallied them with the information that the independent vote seems to be trending Christie. NBC's exit polling shows independents casting their ballots for Christie by an almost a 2-to-1 margin.
From NBC's Mark Murray Michael Bloomberg to win re-election as New York City mayor.
Meanwhile, according to the AP, "Boston Mayor Thomas Menino has won an unprecedented fifth consecutive four-year term. Menino held off a challenge from City Council President Michael Flaherty. Menino already has been in office for 16 1/2 years, longer than any in the city's history."
*** UPDATE *** *** UPDATE 2 ***
From NBC's Kelly Paice Creigh Deeds conceded tonight, thanking his supporters and saying: "Just because we didn't get the right result tonight, doesn't mean we get to go home and whine. We've got to keep working and keep fighting -- and I'm fighting."
Deeds said he called his Republican challenger, now governor-elect of Virginia, Bob McDonnell and "wished him well." Deeds added that Virginia still has challenges ahead -- from creating jobs to establishing a much-needed transportation solution. He concluded, "We lose an election but we don't give up... We still have people that need a voice and we're going to give them that voice."
From NBC's Shawna Thomas Christie headquarters with the B Street Band, who bill themselves as the original Bruce Springsteen cover band, warming up the crowd of journalists.
Outside the ballroom, the Christie campaign has surrogates hitting the main theme of the campaign. New Jersey State Sen. Tom Kean Jr . repeated that Christie has a plan to lower taxes and Corzine and Daggett do not. He also predicted a three-point win for the former U.S. Attorney.
From NBC's Mark Murray Tim Pawlenty appears to be the first potential 2012 Republican presidential candidate to release a statement on Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama , they do point to some warning signs for the White House and the Democratic Party.
The first warning sign is withs independent voters. In New Jersey, Christie leads Corzine here by 25 points, 58%-33%. And in Virginia, McDonnell leads among indies by an identical 25 points, 62%-37%. As Domenico pointed out below, Obama won indies in Virginia last year by one point, 49%-48%.
The other warning sign is with people who are worried about the nation's direction. In New Jersey, 90% said they are worried, and Christie leads with these folks by three points, 48%-45%. In Virginia, 84% say they are worried about the nation's direction, and McDonnell leads among these people by 17 points, 58%-41%.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In 2008, Obama won independents in New Jersey, 51%-47%. But this year, independents flocked to Republican Chris Christie , 58%-31%, instead of incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine .
Young voters (18-29) made up almost one in five New Jersey voters in 2008 (17%). In this race, they made up just a meek 9%, less than one-in-10 voters.
By contrast, and similar to Virginia, older voters (65+) made up a bigger slice of the electorate in this election, one-in-five voters (20%). In 2008, they made up 15%.
Black and Hispanic voters, though, actually were a larger percentage of the electorate in this election. Black voters made up 15% this time around; in 2008, they were 12% -- with the first would-be black president on the ballot. Hispanic voters were 9% in 2008 and 10% this time around.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: The exit poll data have been updated with slight changes; the above post has been adjusted accordingly.]
From NBC's Mark Murray Bob McDonnell (R) the winner in Virginia, that means that, for the NINTH time in a row, the party that won the White House lost Virginia's gubernatorial contest the following year.
Since 1977, the party controlling the White House has lost Virginia's gubernatorial contest.
From NBC's Mark Murray In New Jersey's gubernatorial race, according to the exit polls, it is too close to call.
NBC News projects Bob McDonnell (R) the winner in Virginia's gubernatorial contest.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In 2008, candidate Obama won independent voters in Virginia, 49%-48%, according to exit polls. But the exits in this year's contest show that independents abandoned Creigh Deeds (D) and went overwhelmingly for the Republican, Bob McDonnell , 65%-34%.
Voters, age 18-29, made up more than one in every five voters in 2008 (21%) in Virginia. This year, they made up just 10%. They broke 60%-39% for Obama, but went for McDonnell, 54%-45%.
By contrast, older voters (65+) made up more of the electorate this time around in Virginia. In 2008, voters 65 and older made up 11% of the electorate; in 2009, 18%. They broke for the Republican both times -- in 2008, 53%-46% for John McCain ; in 2009, 59%-41% for McDonnell.
Additionally, there was a five-point dropoff among black voters from 2008. Black voters made up a whopping 20% of all Virginia voters when Obama was on the ballot. This time, though, they made up 16%.
[EDITOR'S NOTE: The exit poll data have been updated after a third wave; the above post has been adjusted accordingly.]
In the race for governor in Virginia, according to the exit polls, Republican Bob McDonnell holds a lead over his opponent, Democrat Creigh Deeds .
It's too early to call.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama or to express opposition? Or was he not a factor in your decision?
Well, according to the exits, 60% of New Jersey voters said Obama wasn't a factor in their decision. By comparison, 20% said they were expressing opposition, and 19% said they were expressing support. Obama's approval in the Garden State is 57% -- which matches the percentage he won in the state in last year's presidential election.
In Virginia, 55% of voters said Obama wasn't a factor, while 24% said they were expressing opposition, and 18% said they were expressing support. Obama's approval rating in the state, according to the exits, is 51% -- which is just two points off the percentage he won in Virginia last year.
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Turnout could be higher than 50%, Dunlap projected. He had predicted that it could be about 35%.
Dunlap said while driving around to various polling places, he was surprised by lines he saw. "Wow it's pretty busy here," Dunlap said he thought.
So what does a higher turnout mean for the fate of the ballot initiative? It could portends well for those in favor of same-sex marriage, Dunlap posited, because the voters might skew younger. Older voters generally go to the polls -- no matter what or who's on the ballot.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro It's very likely the New Jersey election will be the closest of the races this evening. We could be in for a long night and possibly be up in the morning and not know the results.
But don't count as a factor the increase in vote-by-mail/absentees, according to state elections officials.
In 2005, New Jersey did away with needing a reason to obtain an absentee ballot. It also changed the name from absentee, which connotes needing to not be in the state, to vote-by-mail to alleviate confusion.
The state issued 185,000 vote-by-mail ballots, and as of now 140,000 have been returned, according to Bob Giles, director of the New Jersey Division of Elections.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Bob Menendez all but endorsed Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in Ohio's Senate Democratic primary.
When Chuck asked Menendez about key Senate pick-up opportunities for Democrats next year, the chairman singled out Ohio and Fisher. But he barely referred to Brunner, and didn't even mention her by name.
When Chuck followed up and mentioned Brunner's name, Menendez responded that she has just over $100,000 cash on hand . By comparison, Fisher has nearly $1.6 million cash on hand.
The Fisher-Brunner winner will likely face former Ohio Rep. (and former Bush OMB Director) Rob Portman in the general election next year.
From NBC's Mark Murray conversation starter : that after reading Obama campaign manager David Plouffe's new book, "The Audacity to Win," she believes the first year of Obama's presidency can be summed up with this title instead -- "The Timidity to Govern."
She wrote:
How did the candidate who got into the race because he'd decided that "the core leadership had turned rotten" and that "the people were getting hosed" become the president who has decided that the American people can only have as much change as Olympia Snowe will allow?
How did the candidate who told a stadium of supporters in Denver that "the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result" become the president who has surrounded himself with the same old players trying the same old politics, expecting a different result?
Huffington Post piece .
From NBC's Ken Strickland Harry Reid remains shy of the 60 votes he needs to bring his health-care bill to the floor, one of the senators withholding her support appears to be moving away from Reid's bill that contains a public option -- and leaning instead toward the "trigger" proposal offered by Republican Olympia Snowe .
"I remain skeptical about what's been outlined conceptually," Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) said today, referring to Reid proposal for a public option that would allow states to opt out. "I continue to want to push forward to give people in American much better choices than they have today and will continue to stay at the table and negotiate."
Landrieu said she agrees with Snowe's belief that the private market should be allowed the chance to reform itself by providing affordable insurance coverage. But she quickly added, "If the private market fails to reform or refuses to reform then there would be a fallback position."
That "fallback position" is a direct reference to Snowe's proposal -- often called a "fallback" or "trigger."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Mark Murray Angela Merkel addresses Congress.
Note that South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson (R) -- who yelled "You lie" at President Obama during the last joint session -- will be an escort for Merkel. Wilson was selected by the GOP leadership.
Said Wilson in a statement:
Chancellor Merkel grew up under the communism of East Germany and now she assumes the post of chancellor of the unified Germany. I'm confident she will continue to inspire and lead towards greater prosperity with conservative principles.
I also appreciate the investment Germany has made in South Carolina with BMW's economic contribution.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray The Hill , which reported that Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) "has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform."
But not so fast...
Lieberman communications director Marshall Wittmann emails First Read, "If you believe this story is true, you will also believe that I am replacing A-Rod in game six of the series."
Translation: Lieberman remains a threat to filibuster the Senate health-care bill, if it contains a public option.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg A referendum on Obama? Deep down, a political reporter’s first instinct is to nationalize off-year and special elections. Why? It’s the best way to try to make sense -- at least initially -- of a handful of races across the country. It’s also the best way to sell a local race’s importance to editors and producers. We all do it. So it shouldn’t be surprising that almost everyone is nationalizing today’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, and even the NY-23 special congressional election. And the chief question they’re asking is: Are they referendums on President Obama’s first year in office? Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that the New Jersey race was “one of several [contests] likely to be viewed as a barometer of the president’s popularity.” And here was the AP : “A Corzine loss would be seen as a political embarrassment for the White House.”
*** Remember that candidates matter : If Democrats lose in New Jersey and Virginia, that certainly would be a shot in the arm for a Republican Party that hasn’t fared well in the in the past two election cycles (losing control of Congress and the White House). That outcome also could give Democrats pause that the voter coalition that propelled Obama to victory last year (liberals, young voters, minorities, independents) appears dormant or is no longer intact. But is that a referendum on Obama? Not so much. For starters, how much does Creigh Deeds losing in Virginia say about Obama, when the president’s approval rating in the state is at 57% among registered voters and 54% among likely voters, according to the most recent Washington Post poll? And if Jon Corzine’s favorable rating in the Quinnipiac poll was at 38% back in March (near the height of Obama’s honeymoon), and it’s at 39% now, how does that say much about Obama and his popularity/presidency? Likewise, if Democrats are able to split the races by winning in New Jersey or even pull off the upset in Virginia, does that mean Obama’s presidency is on easy street? Absolutely not. In short, these races say much more about Deeds/McDonnell or Corzine/Christie than they do about Obama.
*** But issues matter, too : By the way, even Republican Governors Association Chair Haley Barbour said today's races are NOT a referendum on the president. But Barbour argued that the policy climate they've set is on the ballot today. Evan Tracey, the campaign TV ad analyst for CMAG, points out that in just the D.C. market (read: Northern Virginia voters), more than $10 million in TV ads have run this year on various issues the president and his party are pushing. Did it set up a climate in Northern Virginia of government doing too much opening the door a tad more for McDonnell?
*** Bellwethers for 2010? Here’s another question people are asking about today’s contests: What do they say about the 2010 midterms? Again, it’s hard to say. As we pointed out last week, Democrats won both the NJ and VA races in 2005 -- right after Hurricane Katrina -- which was an early sign of their success in 2006 (when they took back control of Congress) and in 2008 (when they won the White House). Yet in 2001 -- right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- Democrats also won the NJ and VA contests. But a year later, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and George W. Bush won re-election in 2004. Here’s one other bit of history that’s hard to dismiss: Since 1977 (so the past eight elections), the party that controls the White House has lost the Virginia gubernatorial contest. And since 1989 (the past five elections), the party controlling the White House has lost New Jersey.
*** Lessons learned : Still, these contests do tell a national story. But here’s the thing: The lessons are already known, no matter the outcomes. Win or lose, Corzine won't get 50%, meaning more than half of the state voted to oust him in a very blue state. We know that the Republican Party has to deal with both an ideological and an establishment-vs.-grassroots rift. We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters -- from Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in NY-23. And we know that the president's coattails have gotten shorter. As one of us wrote , “So it isn't about whether or not Tuesday's elections matter. Tuesday is about which party learns the messages voters are sending. And which party over-interprets or under-interprets those messages.”
*** Other races to watch : Besides the NJ/VA/NY-23 contests, Maine is voting on a ballot initiative whether to overturn the state’s law allowing same-sex marriage, and the outcome could go either way. Also, New York City, Boston, and at least a dozen more big cities are holding mayoral elections. Polls close in Virginia at 7:00 pm ET; in Maine, New Jersey, and Boston at 8:00 pm; and in New York at 9:00 pm. One final thought here: What should the House GOP leadership (read: Pete Sessions) worry about more -- a Hoffman loss in NY-23 or a Garamendi (D) victory by less than five points in CA-10? Folks, the special election in blue CA-10, which Ellen Tauscher represented before heading to the Obama State Department, might be closer than many people expected a week ago….
*** How would a recount work in NJ? New Jersey is shaping up to be the closest election tonight. So what if it’s so close that the winner is unclear? Well, there’s no automatic recount. In other words, no vote margin triggers an automatic statewide recount. Instead, a candidate would have 15 days (Nov. 18) to request one. (They'd file in New Jersey Superior Court). There is a fee that the petitioning candidate has to incur (the Secretary of State’s office didn't know how much), but all other costs are incurred by the counties. Candidates have 30 days to contest the election if they feel it was fraudulent. Once a candidate files, that would trigger an investigation. Impress Your Friends at the Water Cooler Alert: The last time a candidate requested a recount was in 1981 by Democrat Jim Florio, who in the end lost to Republican Tom Kean by 1,797 votes. The closest gubernatorial elections since ’81 were in '93 and '97, when Christie Todd Whitman won by fewer than 25,000 votes. By the way, our exit poll/ballot counting experts in the NBC News boiler room tell us as many as 100,000 votes won't be counted tonight in New Jersey. If we haven't called this race by midnight, could it be we won't be able to call it for days?
*** Turnout watch : Turnout in New Jersey’s last gubernatorial contest, in 2005, was 2.3 million; in 2006, it was about 2.25 million for the Menendez-Kean Senate race; and in last year’s presidential, it was around 3.8 million… Turnout in Virginia’s last gubernatorial contest, in 2005, was about 2 million; in 2006, it was about 2.4 million in the Webb-Allen Senate contest; and in last year’s presidential, it was about 3.7 million.
*** Obama supporters disappointed? This New York Times piece is indicative of what we’ve seen/heard from some Obama supporters lately: They are disappointed with Obama, discovering that campaigning is a lot easier than governing. “Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president’s standing has leveled off, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics.”
*** Abortion returns to the health-care debate : It has been a while since the talk of “death panels” or abortion has dominated the health-care debate. And it’s probably not a coincidence that the prospects for reform now seem better than they did during that crazy August. But the issue of abortion has returned for the Democrats. The Washington Post : “While House leaders are moving toward a vote on health-care legislation by the end of the week, enough Democrats are threatening to oppose the measure over the issue of abortion to create a question about its passage… ‘I will continue whipping my colleagues to oppose bringing the bill to the floor for a vote until a clean vote against public funding for abortion is allowed,’ Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said… He said last week that 40 Democrats could vote with him to oppose the legislation -- enough to derail the bill.”
*** The GOP’s health plan : Meanwhile, House Republicans plan to -- finally! -- unveil their health-care bill this week. And it doesn’t look anything like any of the Democrats’ legislation. Two big differences: Their legislation won’t prevent health insurers from denying coverage to those with preexisting conditions, and it won’t provide money to help those without health insurance. House Minority Leader John Boehner said “that the measure would not include language banning insurance companies from denying coverage to consumers with preexisting conditions, a prominent feature of Democrats' bills in both the House and Senate,” the Washington Post writes. “And while some Republican health-care proposals have called for giving individuals tax credits to help them buy insurance, that idea won't be included in this week's GOP bill because it would cost too much.”
*** Obama’s day : The president meets at the White House with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at 9:10 am ET (Merkel also addresses Congress today). At 2:40 pm, Obama participates in a U.S.-E.U. summit. And he meets with Defense Secretary Gates at 4:30 pm and with Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) at 5:15 pm (both of which are closed to the press).
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 35 days
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The Wall Street Journal : ”Republicans appear positioned for strong results in three hard-fought elections Tuesday. But isolated, off-year contests aren't always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years.”
More: “Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages from voters in a race for a U.S. House seat in far northern New York, as well as from contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans, increasingly optimistic, say the contests foreshadow trouble for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party's ambitious agenda heading toward the 2010 congressional elections.”
The Wall Street Journal also takes a final look at the oft-scrutinized “intensity factor” that is seen as a determining factor in the outcome of today’s gubernatorial and special elections. For New Jersey, the Journal writes. “It's entirely possible that the intensity meter in this governor's race will show there simply isn't much on either side. An ugly campaign appears to have made each major candidate less appealing.” Virginia’s “race is where an intensity gap seems most likely, and most beneficial to Republicans. And in New York’s 23rd district, “the question … is whether national Republican leaders have managed to create more intensity on their side -- or, perversely, have managed to generate it for the Democratic underdog” by throwing their support behind the third-party Conservative candidate. “Watch what kind of intensity -- if any -- now emerges among moderate Republicans.”
USA Today : “Elections in a handful of states today, including governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia, loom as the first significant electoral test of the coalition that swept President Obama and congressional Democrats to victory one year ago. This time, Democrats are braced for a tough night: Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds trailed Republican Bob McDonnell by double digits in late statewide polls. In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was neck-and-neck with GOP challenger Chris Christie.”
The New York Times’ Nagourney writes, “Some Democrats said they are concerned that an early surge of support for a third-party candidate, Christopher J. Daggett, which appeared to come at the expense of Mr. Christie, is now fading as anti-Corzine voters settle on Mr. Christie. Polls close at 8 p.m., and if the race turns out to be as close with as polls suggest, this could be yet another close American election with no conclusion by the time everyone goes to sleep.”
MASSACHUSETTS : “Today, after a half dozen debates, thousands of handshakes, and countless visits to coffee shops and senior centers, Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr.’s upstart campaign for change confronts Mayor Thomas M. Menino’s vaunted political machine as voters go to the polls to decide whether to give the incumbent an unprecedented fifth term in office.” Boston Globe editorial page endorsed incumbent Mayor Menino: “While we are encouraged by his strong record of financial management, we also urge him to take the opportunity, in an unprecedented fifth term, to foster a dialogue about the future of the city.” NEW JERSEY : Online bettors are split between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in wagering which will be New Jersey’s next governor, Bloomberg News says. Bets that Corzine would win a second term traded at 48.5, “meaning that the online exchange puts his chances of being re-elected at 48.5 percent.” Christie’s bets traded at 49, putting his odds slightly higher than Corzine’s.
NEW YORK : The top-ranking House Republican told reporters on Monday that he regrets having supported former GOP House candidate Dede Scozzafava… "This lady clearly has as agenda that's different than most Republicans; she was out there promoting herself," House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said.”
Joe Biden was in NY-23 yesterday, throwing around some red meat and attacking Sarah Palin, Dick Armey and Tim Pawlenty: "The fact of the matter is, Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is 'drill, baby, drill,' " said Biden. "It's a lot more complicated, Sarah!"
Palin responded, of course, on her Facebook page: "There’s one way to tell Vice President Biden that we’re tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation’s progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!"
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“President Obama on Monday admonished President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan that he must take on what American officials have said he avoided during his first term: the rampant corruption and drug trade that have fueled the resurgence of the Taliban,” the New York Times front-pages. “What he is seeking, Mr. Obama told reporters … , is ‘a sense on the part of President Karzai that, after some difficult years in which there has been some drift, that in fact he’s going to move boldly and forcefully forward and take advantage of the international community’s interest in his country to initiate reforms internally. That has to be one of our highest priorities.’”
The Hill notes the record number of lobbyists who’ve quit since Obama’s taken office: “The giant spike in resignations came just after the Obama administration instituted strict new rules on lobbyist activity. The White House banned employees from receiving gifts from lobbyists and announced that any lobbyist hired by the executive branch could not work on the same issues on which he or she lobbied.” (Over 1,400 lobbyists ‘deregistered’ with Congress in the second quarter of 2009, according to a study conducted jointly by the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) and OMB Watch. Typically, only a few hundred lobbyists quit each quarter.)”
More: “But the study's authors warn that not all of the deregistered lobbyists may actually be out of business. ‘At the federal level, many people working in the lobbying industry are not registered lobbyists, instead adopting titles such as 'senior adviser' or other executive monikers, thereby avoiding federal disclosure requirements under the Lobbying Disclosure Act,’ CRP and OMB Watch said in a statement.”
“After months of criticizing Democrats' health-care proposals without offering one of their own, House Republicans are preparing to unveil a reform bill this week to compete with the majority's ideas,” the Washington Post reports. “Having lambasted the bill unveiled by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for being nearly 2,000 pages long with a price tag of $1 trillion, Republicans plan to offer a measure much narrower in scope and more modest in its goals. GOP leaders are unable to say yet how much their bill would cost or how many Americans would gain health insurance under their plan, but Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said Monday that his party's bill was sent to the Congressional Budget Office for scoring. ‘We expect it to be ready in the next several days,’ Boehner said.”
Welcome to crazy land… "I believe that the greatest fear that we all should have ... to our freedom comes from this room, this very room, and what may happen later this week in terms of a tax increase bill masquerading as a health care bill," Representative Virginia Foxx said on the House floor. "I believe we have more to fear from the potential of that bill passing than we do from any terrorist right now in any country." (Just asking, but where’s the outrage from Republican leadership, which was outraged over Alan Grayson’s “Die Quickly” remarks?)
“Centrist Democrats in the House are moving toward the “yes” column on healthcare reform, triggering optimism among leadership officials that they will soon have the votes to pass their $894-billion measure,” The Hill writes. “Other than Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s (D-N.D.) pronouncement in a closed-door caucus meeting, there have been few public conversions. But many of those once considered ‘no’ votes, especially on the question of a ‘robust’ public option, have moved into undecided, “leaning yes,” or are fully supporting the bill.”
That said… “Still, leaders on Monday didn’t have the firm 218 votes in the Democratic Caucus that they will need before they’re willing to go to a vote on the final legislation. That bill, called a ‘manager’s amendment,’ could be released Tuesday, setting the stage for a vote that could occur as early as Friday.”
“Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter… [S]ources said Reid’s staff is telling liberal interest groups that Lieberman (Conn.) has assured Reid he will vote with Democrats in the necessary procedural vote to end debate, perhaps with intentions to change the bill.”
Also, don't miss Rep. John Dingell's (D) op-ed in support of the House health-care bill. "Reform is neither easy nor cheap, but the cost of inaction is far greater – in terms of lives lost, quality of life, and dollars. Make no mistake, if we don't reduce costs we face certain economic disaster. My father was one of the first members of Congress to fight to change the private insurance system in place today. His fight began in 1943, 66 years ago. If we go another 66 years with costs continuing to rise at the same rate they have over the last three decades, estimates project health care spending to approach 100 percent of our GDP. This is simply not sustainable."
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama called Afghan President Hamid Karzai to congratulate him on being named the winner of that country's election, and urged him to work to improve governance and end corruption there.
Karzai was named the victor when his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah , dropped out of a runoff election scheduled for Nov. 7. The second round was called after allegations of fraud -- backed up by international monitors -- marred the August vote. But Abdullah argued that not enough protections had been put in place to avoid a repeat of the earlier problems.
President Hamid Karzai won a second term after the Afghan election commission canceled the scheduled runoff race. How will this affect President Obama's decision on troop deployment to the region? Administration officials have consistently contended the United States must have a credible, legitimate partner heading the government in Afghanistan in order to accomplish America's chief national security goals of denying Al Qaeda a safe haven in the country and preventing the Taliban from taking over there.
Obama's remarks echoed those of White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, who told reporters earlier in the day that Karzai was the country's legitimate leader, but stopped short of calling him a credible partner. The president said Afghanistan's electoral was "messy," but that the final outcome was in line with Afghanistan's constitution.
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From NBC's Kelly Paice Al Gore -backed group Alliance for Climate Protection today launched what it's calling an online, field and advertising "Repower America" campaign to get the legislation through Congress.
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Chris Christie (R) and urging them to "Remember Chris Daggett 's words: 'It's never wrong to vote for the right person.'"
That's a line, by the way, that Daggett (I) likes to use.
You can here the audio here in an article by the Star-Ledger, the New Jersey paper that first reported the story.
Daggett's campaign has said a lot about the frustration of New Jersey voters. And about just what an impact he's had -- albeit inconsistent. As Daggett's numbers started to rise, Christie's started to drop, and the Republican Governors Association took notice.
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N.J. Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie are darting through the state, in a final push for votes in a race that's too close to call. It started running ads against Daggett, his negatives started going up and Christie started pulling back into the lead or at least closer in most polls. When all the votes are counted Tuesday, if Christie pulls it off, the RGA certainly deserves some credit here.
Democrats are noticing the dropoff and that voters who were inclined to Christie are starting to go back to him, and are now trying to figure out a way to stop the flow.
Again, Daggett won't win here, but his impact will be something political observers will have to factor in when talking about this race. Of course, Jon Corzine 's (D) camp acts like Daggett doesn't even exist, and that his candidacy (and Christie's floundering) have nothing to do with the fact that their candidate even has a shot.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Here , here , and here .) It breaks down where -- and on what -- money was spent.
A First Read analysis of the data shows that almost $1 billion was allocated to counties in -- either wholly or partially -- New York’s 23rd congressional district.
The six counties that are completely in the district -- Clinton, Franklin, Saint Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego -- received almost $326 million.
An additional $602 million was allocated to the five counties that are partially in the district -- Oneida, Madison, Hamilton, Essex, and Fulton.
There is no data available on the number of jobs created by county, a spokesman for the governor’s office said.
Jobs have been a big issue in Upstate New York. It’s something Hillary Clinton campaigned on when she ran for Senate, and what every gubernatorial candidate promises to change when they campaign Upstate. New York State has been particularly hard hit by manufacturing jobs losses. In the past decade, since 1999, New York has lost more than 293,000 manufacturing jobs.
From NBC's Luke Russert President Hamid Karzai today, both Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Ike Skelton (D-MO) released statements supporting Gen. Stanley McChrystal ’s plan for a counter insurgency strategy within Afghanistan.
Boehner said, “In March, the President outlined a counter-insurgency strategy, and I support that strategy. It’s time to do what is necessary to make that strategy work. There are no more excuses. It’s time for the Obama Administration to give our commander on the ground the resources he needs to protect our troops and achieve the goals the President has said he supports.”
Skelton, one of the most powerful and important Democrats on the Hill when it comes to war policy echoed Boehner’s words, “I continue to believe that General McChrystal’s counter insurgency plan is the right approach, including his call to build capability at the local level.”
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From WMAQ's Mary Ann Ahern (of NBC's Chicago affiliate) Sen. Roland Burris , who is needed by the Obama administration for those 60 votes to pass the healthcare bill, said, "I will only vote for a bill with a strong public option."
Burris delivered his remarks at Stroger Hospital in Chicago.
"In order to achieve real reform" there must be lowered cost, Burris added.
From NBC's Pete Williams
The FBI accused Seale and other Ku Klux Klansmen of kidnapping two black college students in 1964, beating them in a forest, and dumping them, still alive, into the Mississippi River. Seale and another man were arrested at the time, but local authorities declined to prosecute them for killing the students, Charles Moore and his friend, Henry Dee. Moore's brother, Thomas, helped get the case re-opened, and Seale was re-arrested in 2007, this time on federal charges, and later convicted.
When the crime was committed in 1964, a kidnapping that resulted in harm to the victim was punishable by death. And that is true today. But for more than two decades, violating that law was not a capital offense. There's no statute of limitations for crimes that carry the death penalty, but there is for others. Accordingly, Seale challenged his conviction, arguing that when the death penalty was taken off the books, only a five-year statute of limitations applied to the crime. Once that period elapsed, he could no longer be charged, even though the death penalty was later revived, he claimed.
A federal appeals court disagreed and upheld Seale's conviction, but it urged the Supreme Court to straighten out the law. Today, the justices declined to do so. But two justices -- the liberal John Paul Stevens and the conservative Antonin Scalia -- said the court should have taken the case. It's an important issue, they said, "that may well determine the outcome of a number of cases of ugly racial violence remaining from the 1960's."
From NBC's Mark Murray Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens by five percentage points, 41%-36%, with Republican Dede Scozzafava (who withdrew from the race on Saturday) now getting just 6%.
But this might be the most interesting number: 18% are undecided -- a very large number with just a day before the election.
“With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race,” Siena's Steve Greenberg said. “The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”
The poll was taken of 606 likely voters in congressional district, and it has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg The GOP’s two paths : Republicans are set to learn two very contradictory lessons from their likely victories tomorrow in Virginia and NY-23. In Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as we’ve written before, Bob McDonnell (R) has hugged the middle, portraying himself as a bipartisan legislator and attorney general who has racked up significant endorsements from Democrats. He also has owned the issues of the economy and taxes. But in the NY-23 special congressional election, the lesson has been to embrace the right -- even if it means backing a third-party candidate (Doug Hoffman) over its party’s more moderate nominee (Dede Scozzafava), who suspended her campaign on Saturday and is now backing the Democrat in the race (Bill Owens). Those events over the weekend turned a three-way congressional race that the Dems could win -- by splitting the GOP vote -- into a likely Republican victory. However, First Read has learned that Scozzafava is now taping robo-calls for Owens. By the way, it’s worth remembering that McDonnell cut a deal with Virginia GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to avoid a primary. Could McDonnell have run as a centrist in the general had he run in a primary in the spring?
*** The ideological civil war in 2010 : So which path does the Republican Party take as we head into 2010? As of right now, it looks like the NY-23 one (even though McDonnell is about to do something that Jerry Kilgore, George Allen, Jim Gilmore, and John McCain didn’t do this century: win in the battleground state of Virginia). On Saturday, Marco Rubio, who’s taking on the more moderate Charlie Crist in next year’s Florida Senate primary, delivered this message to conservatives on National Review Online : The “developments in New York's 23rd Congressional District should send an encouraging message to conservatives everywhere. It is not only right and necessary to stand up for our principles; it is also an appealing strategy to Americans yearning for less government and more fiscal restraint in Washington.” The conservative-vs.-moderate battle also will play out next year in Texas (where Kay Bailey Hutchison is taking on Rick Perry) and in Utah (where Sen. Bob Bennett is receiving a challenge from the right). And don’t forget that this divide already forced Sen. Arlen Specter switch parties earlier this year.
*** NY-23 and 2012 : Hoffman's likely victory is either the first anecdote political analysts will use to explain how the GOP built itself back up as a grassroots party to nominate (insert semi-unknown Republican here) and defeat Obama in 2012. Or it will become what Democrats see as an ideological fight that turned off the political middle and set the stage for Obama to win re-election, thanks to a Republican Party that couldn't appeal to independents. That was the argument David Plouffe made on “Meet the Press” yesterday . “Sarah Palin, the other Republican candidates who are likely to run, the Limbaughs and Becks of the world are basically hanging a ‘moderates need not apply’ sign outside the Republican National Committee headquarters,” he said. “And for a party that has historic lows right now … it's a ... curious strategy to kind of repair this damage.”
*** Charlie Crist, you’re next : Indeed, if Hoffman wins in NY-23 tomorrow, Charlie Crist will most definitely be the right’s next target in this ideological civil war. And he’s already hurting. A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll over the weekend found that only 42% think that Crist is doing a good or excellent job as governor -- his worst rating in his 34 months in office. But the biggest worry for him? “Even most fellow Republicans don't like the job he's doing. That 51 percent of them rate Crist's performance as fair or poor is particularly ominous for someone facing an aggressive U.S. Senate primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami.” It’s snowballing for Crist. As he tries to appeal to the GOP base, that base is abandoning him. Meanwhile, Dems and indies won't bail him out now; they are becoming more partisan, too. This is all turning into a potential political nightmare for Crist. Here's some irony for you: Had Crist decided to seek a second term, he'd probably cruise to re-election (as top Dem Alex Sink wouldn't be running). Now, trying to jump to the Senate after just one term as governor (nearly half of which he's spending as a political candidate) will be its own liability.
*** What if Corzine Loses? With all the focus on NY-23 and Virginia, however, don’t forget about New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest, which will probably be the closest race Tuesday night. In fact, President Obama made his third campaign swing for Jon Corzine (D) yesterday. While Corzine has trailed for most of the year and while his approval numbers remain stuck in the 30s and 40s, almost everything has gone right for him in the final two months: 1) Chris Christie’s campaign has floundered, 2) Chris Daggett’s independent candidacy gives Corzine a path to victory without winning 50% of the vote, and 3) Obama’s recent events for Corzine and the Democratic Party’s ground game in Jersey might be what Democrats need to turn a deadlocked race into a Dem win. But what happens if Corzine loses? How will you be able to explain it? (The final Quinnipiac poll shows movement for Christie, with him up by two (42%-40%) after trailing by five last week.)
*** Rationalizing New Jersey : Well, the chief reason will have been Corzine’s unpopularity; indeed having EVERYTHING going his way these past two months has been the only way he might win tomorrow. But you also can’t dismiss concerns about the Democratic base (that for the first time in quite a while, the Dem base in New Jersey wouldn’t have been able to push the Democrat across the finish line), or the fact that incumbents across the country better be worried about their prospects next year (Chris Dodd, Harry Reid, Ted Strickland, Bill Ritter, and Chet Culver, we’re looking at you). In addition, on CNBC this morning, Christie said Obama will have no impact on the race, and he took pains not to criticize the president. So Christie's spin on Obama and the White House's spin on Obama are probably in sync! By the way, fair or not, Democrats better be ready to parry a new GOP talking point that none of the ACTUAL Democratic nominees running in NJ, VA, NY-23, and NYC mayor may break 45% on Tuesday. And in every single one of those states/districts/cities, Obama nabbed well over 50% in 2008.
*** Dede wasn’t the only one who quit a race this past weekend : Turning from the 2009 horse races to foreign policy, the big news in Afghanistan is that Abdullah Abdullah withdrew from his runoff against Karzai, the runoff was canceled, and Karzai was declared the winner. So what does this mean for the Obama administration as it weighs sending more troops into Afghanistan? It’s unclear at this point. After his meeting with his Joint Chiefs last Friday, Obama asked them to come back to the White House (possibly as early as this week) to present him with more options. The president is not happy with the choices that he has in front of him, including Gen. Stanley McCrystal's request for approximately 40,000 more troops. While nothing has been ruled out, the fact that Obama is asking for more options than what was already on the table, including the 40,000 troop request, is a strong sign that whatever number the president approves, it will likely be less than the 40,000 number. As for timing, it's also looking less likely the president will make a decision -- let alone announce a decision -- before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 11, meaning the election decision in Afghanistan may have less impact on timing than many thought.
*** McChrystal and Pat Tillman : Speaking of McChrystal and Afghanistan… On “Meet” yesterday, author Jon Krakauer discussed his new book on Pat Tillman’s death in Afghanistan, noting that McChrystal had approved paperwork for Tillman’s Silver Star, despite having evidence Tillman had died due to friendly fire. “After Tillman died, the most important thing to know is that within--instantly, within 24 hours certainly, everybody on the ground, everyone intimately involved knew it was friendly fire,” Krakauer said. “There's never any doubt it was friendly fire. McChrystal was told within 24 hours it was friendly fire. Also, immediately they started this paperwork to give Tillman a Silver Star. And the Silver Star ended up being at the center of the cover-up.”
*** Geithner on taxes : Also on “Meet” yesterday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner didn’t rule out the Obama administration having to raise taxes to shore up the nation’s debt, and he struggled mightily NOT to actually admit it. “I just want to say this very clearly. [Obama] was committed in the campaign to make--he said in the campaign and he is committed to make sure we do this in a way that is not going to add to the burden on people making less than $250,000 a year. Now, it's going to be hard to do that, but he's committed to doing that and we can do that… We're going to have to do it in a way that's going to help to meet that test, meet that commitment, the commitment he made, to do it in a way that's fair to Americans and make sure we do it in a way that's going to allow--provide for growth and recovery going forward. But we can do this. You know, this is not beyond our capacity as a country to do.” Has "hard choices" become code for "tax hikes"?
*** Fast facts for tomorrow : One day out until tomorrow’s NJ/VA/NY-23 contests, here are some fast facts you might want handy to sound smart around water cooler, at your election-night party, or while blogging/tweeting tomorrow night: Since 1977 (for eight-straight times), the party controlling the White House has always lost Virginia’s gubernatorial contest… Since 1989 (five-straight times), the party controlling the White House has always lost New Jersey’s gubernatorial race… Republicans have lost the last four major contests in VA (the ’05 Gov race, the ’06 and ’08 Senate races, and in last year’s presidential)… And even if Chris Christie wins in NJ, he’ll likely keep this GOP alive: No Republican in a statewide race in NJ has received 50% since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
*** More 2009 trivia : The Deeds-McDonnell race in VA is a rematch from 2005, when McDonnell bested Deeds by just 360 votes in their race for state attorney general (something tells us the margin will be a bit bigger tomorrow night)… Dems hold more than a 700,000-voter-registration advantage in NJ, but almost half of all state voters (46%) are registered as unaffiliated… Corzine and Mike Bloomberg have already spent a combined $371 million on their political races since 2000… A Democrat has not controlled the NY-23 congressional district since the 19th century… If Republicans lose NY-23, they will control just two of the states 29 congressional districts; in 2006, they controlled nine, including seven Upstate.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 1 day
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”Afghan election officials canceled a presidential runoff and proclaimed the reelection of President Hamid Karzai on Monday, a day after Karzai's top challenger declared he would not take part in a second round of voting scheduled for Saturday because of a persistent risk of fraud,” the Washington Post says.
The Boston Globe calls it Karzai's "win by default." And it adds this context: "American officials hope to help restore legitimacy to Karzai’s government by en couraging him to build a reform-minded government that is ethnically representative and includes Abdullah’s followers. US Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and UN mission chief Kai Eide negotiated with the two camps late into the night Saturday about a power-sharing deal, according to the Western diplomat. But the negotiations broke down early yesterday when Karzai refused a formula for dividing Cabinet posts. If the deal had been accepted, Abdullah would have conceded rather than simply withdraw his candidacy, the diplomat said. Abdullah’s decision not to call for a boycott may indicate he is open to talks."
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A Morning Meeting panel discusses whether the cancellation of the runoff election in Afghanistan will impact President Obama's decision on troop deployment The
New York Times’ analysis wonders if the Karzai government will have legitimacy. “It will not be easy. As the evidence mounted in late summer that Mr. Karzai’s forces had sought to win re-election through widespread fraud to defeat his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, administration officials made no secret of their disgust. How do you consider sending tens of thousands of additional American troops, they asked in meetings in the White House, to prop up an Afghan government regarded as illegitimate by many of its own people? The answer was supposed to be a runoff election. Now, administration officials argue that Mr. Karzai will have to regain that legitimacy by changing the way he governs, at a moment when he is politically weaker than at any time since 2001.”
Abdullah Abdullah's decision to boycott his state's runoff election
does not complicate the president's plans for Afghanistan, White House aide Valerie Jarrett said Sunday. Rather, Abdullah's withdrawal from the November contest because of concerns about its fairness is a mostly 'political' move that 'does not markedly change the situation,' explained White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod."
President Obama campaigned for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) on Sunday, as the incumbent governor cast himself as “the president’s proxy,” seeking to mobilize the 21 percent of Democrats who, in a recent Quinnipiac poll, said they hadn’t planned to vote for Corzine’s re-election. “We will not lose this election if all of you are as committed as you were last year,” Obama told the crowd. “You will not only re-elect Jon Corzine for another four years but put the state on a path to success.”
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President Obama stumped for New Jersey Democrat Jon Corzine, the only governor seeking re-election this fall. The New York Times : “Mr. Obama’s appearances in Camden and Newark underscored the White House’s determination to stave off defeat for Mr. Corzine, the only Democratic incumbent up for re-election this year, who is facing an aggressive challenge from Christopher J. Christie, a Republican… Most polls show the race too close to call; Mr. Obama’s visit to New Jersey on Sunday was his third to stump for Mr. Corzine.”
Has the White House’s “arms-length strategy” on health care paid off? The New York Times has a piece suggesting that it has. “After months of plodding work by five Congressional committees and weeks of back-room bargaining by Democratic leaders, President Obama’s arms-length strategy on health care appears to be paying dividends, with the House and the Senate poised to take up legislation to insure nearly all Americans.”
Tomorrow, the liberal group Alliance for Justice will hold an event at American University's Washington College of Law to pressure Attorney General Eric Holder “to release the Office of Professional Responsibility’s report (OPR) on the conduct of the lawyers who authorized torture during the Bush administration,” per the group. More: “Daniel Levin, head of the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel from 2004-2005, will speak publicly about this issue.”
The White House hosted 2,000 Trick or Treaters at the White House on Saturday.
Dede Scozzafava, a moderate Republican whose candidacy for the NY-23 special election “had set off a storm of national conservative opposition” withdrew from the race on Saturday, leaving it a two-way battle between Democrat Bill Owens and third-party Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, seen by many Republicans, including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty as the only candidate with conservative bona fides. But some marquee Republicans warned of a third-party trend. “If we get into a cycle where every time one side loses, they run a third-party candidate, we’ll make Pelosi speaker for life and guarantee Obama’s re-election,” said former House speaker Newt Gingrich. The New York Times writes that Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Colorado, California and Illinois might receive challenges from third-party contenders trying to claim the mantle of the Republican party.
After suspending her own campaign, Scozzafava came out in favor of Democratic candidate Bill Owens, writing in an email sent to supporters: “To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise." Writes the New York Daily News , “it's a major blow to Hoffman, whose campaign arguably would have been better served if Scozzafava remained officially neutral.”
House Minority Leader John Boehner defended his party in the wake of Scozzafava's withdrawal. "Clearly she would be on the left side of our party," said Boehner, who had financially supported the campaign of the New York assemblywoman, The Hill writes. Boehner added, "We accept moderates in our party and we want moderates in our party."
Roll Call looks at the pressure starting to mount on NRCC head Pete Sessions: "But two messy special elections later, the NRCC lags behind its Democratic counterpart as well as the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee in fundraising -- and the committee is more than $10 million behind where the Cole-led NRCC was at this point in the 2007 election cycle. This disparity has caused several Members, staff and GOP political operatives to question whether Sessions has delivered on his commitment to excel where he thought Cole had failed."
MAINE : The Washington Post parachutes into the battle over gay marriage in Maine. “Maine residents will decide Tuesday whether to repeal a law allowing same-sex marriage, an effort that has succeeded in every state where it has been put before voters. Public opinion surveys in Maine show a dead heat on Question 1, which would cancel the marriage statute that passed the legislature in May and was signed by Gov. John E. Baldacci (D).”
More: “In the five other states where gay men and lesbians are allowed to marry their partners, permission was granted by courts or legislatures.”
MASSACHUSETTS : "As the most competitive race for mayor in 16 years entered its final days, the campaigns continued their hectic pace," the Boston Globe writes. "After the church visits, both candidates attended rallies in a final push to pump up supporters who will help get people to the polls tomorrow… Boston election officials said more voters are registered for this election than for any mayoral race in more than a decade. There are 283,186 voters on the rolls. That’s roughly 10,000 more than in 2005 and 25,000 more than in 2001. Some 6,500 have registered since the preliminary election in September." NEW JERSEY : A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll finds Republican Chris Christie leading Jon Corzine 43%-42% (a statistical tie) with independent Chris Daggett getting 8%. The poll was conducted Oct. 28-30. Bloomberg News : “The poll showed Christie has the support of 51 percent of independents compared with Corzine, the choice of 29 percent of independents. Daggett’s support among independent voters fell to 10 percent from 22 percent on Oct. 9.” Pollster Patrick Murray said that if Democrats don’t vote in droves on November 3rd, “Christie may eke out the win.” Quinnipiac poll shows Christie leading Corzine 42%-40%, with Daggett getting 12%. The poll was conducted from Oct. 27-Nov. 1.
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With all the talk of GOP primaries, New England GOP moderates are trying for a comeback. "New England’s moderate Republicans, shoved out of power by two Democratic waves of anti-George W. Bush fervor, are scrambling to make a 2010 comeback, making early bids for congressional seats that GOP leaders say are critical to taking back majorities in the House and Senate," the Boston Globe writes, noting races in New Hampshire, Connecticut, Upstate New York, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The Hill notices some "other less-noticed actions" that "have also earned him praise among home-state liberals." For example, "Reid has championed the repeal of the military’s 'don’t ask, don’t tell' policy, which many liberals view as unacceptable discrimination against gay soldiers. In late September, Reid pressed President Barack Obama in a letter to weigh in on the issue. A few weeks ago, Reid, a Mormon, criticized the Mormon Church for backing a California ballot measure banning same-sex marriage. Earlier in the year, Reid’s battle against coal-fired power plants in Nevada bore fruit when NV Energy, Inc. announced that it would postpone construction on a major plant in the eastern part of the state."
"Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is poised to send a [health-care] bill to the floor Monday in its final form, setting up a vote as early as Thursday," The Hill writes. "The three-day delay is not for amendments and not even for debate; Thursday is the earliest Pelosi could hold a vote and keep her pledge to allow members and the public three days to study the final legislation."
The Washington Post says that, in the Senate, the energy/climate bill emerges for committee debate tomorrow. But the prospects for passage in the Senate look grim, given misgivings from some Democrats. “The measure has deeply divided Democrats. With states in the Midwest, South and Rocky Mountain West dependent on fossil fuels for energy, many senators are worried about the legislation's impact on industry and consumers… So Democratic leaders, with the support of the Obama administration, are trying to sway at least half a dozen Republicans by offering amendments to speed along their top priority: building nuclear power plants.”
