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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The warning signs for Dems

Posted: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 8:21 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Mark Murray
While the exit polls suggest that tonight's New Jersey and Virginia contests aren't a referendum on President Obama, they do point to some warning signs for the White House and the Democratic Party.

The first warning sign is withs independent voters. In New Jersey, Christie leads Corzine here by 25 points, 58%-33%. And in Virginia, McDonnell leads among indies by an identical 25 points, 62%-37%. As Domenico pointed out below, Obama won indies in Virginia last year by one point, 49%-48%.

The other warning sign is with people who are worried about the nation's direction. In New Jersey, 90% said they are worried, and Christie leads with these folks by three points, 48%-45%. In Virginia, 84% say they are worried about the nation's direction, and McDonnell leads among these people by 17 points, 58%-41%.

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There is no polite way of saying this, but many may like Obama as a person, they very much dislike his policies.  Obama never controlled this health care fiasco which the majority of America doesn't want.  He is terrifying many Americans with the Gitmo mess and his failure to act in Afghanistan. The majority of citizens feel he favors the Goldman Sachs crowd, unions, while dissing small business.  Everybody knows the stimulus was never intended to create jobs.  That is why the independents are bailing on this administration.    
From an earlier thread:
There's a difference between a priest refusing to marry a male and a female - NATURE'S chosen partnership - and people refusing to buy the lie that homosexual relationships are the same and equal to heterosexual relationships. If you believe the latter, watch some nature films. Then tell me where in nature do two individuals of the same gender bond as a matter of course. And of course you won't be able to, because such a bond doesn't exist except in human society, where other forms of sexual deviancy - such as pedophilia, bestiality and necrophilia also exist. Heterosexuality is natural. Homosexuality is an aberration and deviant and, while it should be tolerated in society because it's practiced between two consenting adults, that doesn't mean it should be embraced or reckoned as being equal. Because that is a LIE.

Tiffany Barnes (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 6:28 PM)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
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You, my dear Ms Barnes, are a complete and utter loon. Will you please point out ANYWHERE in the Bible where Jesus or God EVER say anything about homosexuality?

It talks about it in Leviticus - a group of Jewish laws, but not God's law - unless your husband/son/father never trimmed their beards - or ever wore clothes made of two different materials - you know, like Blue Jeans or a poly-blend shirt, for example - that's a deviant lifestyle too, huh?

And Jesus? He never said a word about homosexuality - but I guess in God's divine plan Jesus simply forgot to mention his hatred of the gays or he simply ran out of time

It's mentioned by Paul, who is nothing more than a Christian with an opinion, just like me... he never met or studied under Jesus, but the apostles who did never said a word about it either - seems like you are the confused one.

The only thing deviant is people who have created their own God to worship instead of the one that is truly there - Jesus included

One thing is for certain and something even people like you can't deny - you can not control who you fall in love with - so to deny them the right to marry is not only deviant behavior, it is downright cruel.

Amen
I don't understand. President Barack H. Obama is loved by everyone. He campaigned in NJ and in Virginia, and He told the voters in each to support the Democratic candidate. So, what happened? Weren't those people listening? President Obama has the answers, and we loyal liberals just need to listen to what He says and do what we are told. Obviously that message hasn't gotten through in Virginia or New Jersey.
Do you think there is a feeling among voters that it is time to quit campaigning and start governing.  Maybe a little less time in Air Force 1 and a little more time in the Oval Office would be good.
So, Saint Dick of Dallas, as Christians, which of Paul's letters are we safe to ignore?
Linda Cummings, OR (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 8:58 PM)

Oh please!! Virginia has been a red state forever; Obama was the first democrat in 44 years to carry it last November!!

Get over yourself and do your homework!!
Tiffaney = I'm not going to tell you which bible verses to read, but I do suggest that you take a look at the 14th Ammendment of our Constitution.  It says that all citizens are guaranteed equal protection under the law.  Since civil marriage is done by authority of the state, it is absolutely beyond me how not allowing two consenting adults to marry can be legal.  Being gay in this country is not a crime, so the 14th Ammendment forbids the state to deny gay people any govt services.  Church marriage is quite another thing, I suport whatever church you may belong to in any decision they make on the issue.  But religeous dogma does not belong in govt decisions.  I am a middle age middle class small town heterosexual white guy and I believe the 14th Ammendment means exactly what it says.
Had the democrats won tonight we would have heard that this was definitely a sign that the country backed the President's plan and policies, but now that they've lost (and badly in many cases), we're hearing it wasn't really a referendum regarding the President.  Of course, we're only hearing THAT spin from one side (the losing side).  

My guess is that most people are beginning to understand that cute promises and soundbites on TV don't bring jobs into their neighborhoods, plus the vast majority of jobs that have been created by spending billions of tax dollars are government jobs, hardly what the country needs more of.

Gee, I just found out today that I'm paying $100 per month more for family health insurance than if I lived in a zip code 20 miles away, and that my health insurer (a major company) is exiting the private insurance business at the end of the year, forcing me to find (yet again) a new company. But the conservatives and the tea baggers are concerned about a socialist take over, and the Democrats seem incapable of passing any legislation. Rome burns, while one party fiddles and the other is drilling holes in the buckets.
I understand what the people want there elected politicians to make the right decisions and not behind closed doors.  There constituents can think and decide for themselves what is good and what is not good for this country. They do not need Democrats or Republican in Washington telling them what they want or need.  Lying and corruption will not be tolerated; companies that are in bed with the government will be exposed along with the media that tries to push political agenda. Conservatives are the sleeping majority in the United States of America not Republicans or Democrats. Socialism is what the Obama administration looks to be more and more every day along with big government this will never stand in this country.  Republicans and Democrats beware your evil ways are coming to an end now you will be judged by the majority of Conservative American People.
the reader from oregon needs to wake up and smell the starbucks. Obanana is NOT loved by all and i dont know of any president in history who has been more despised without having to commit a crime first.
Obanana is a terrifying individual hateful of business , hateful of israel , and only changes his opinion to that of the rest of the country when polls show him the direction to change to.
Keep in mind that no president in US history :
1.  tripled the national debt less than one year into his first term.
2.  began an enemies list before his first year was done. Namely Fox news , hannity , limbaugh , beck, etc.
3.  went on a world tour apologizing for the country he is representing.
4.  went to a weaker nation and bowed to their ruler .
NEVER IN HISTORY has the ruler of the most powerful nation on earth gone to a weaker country and bowed down to their ruler.
5. made the mistake of saying he wanted to visit all 57 states in the nation. Gee , must have been thinking about Islam that has 57 states.....not the USA.

ok lets see , the cash for clunkers program cost the taxpayers $24,000 per car and now the same government wants to force you to take your health insurance thru them ???? I DONT THINK SO.

I'M AS MAD AS HELL , AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE !!!
I'M AS MAD AS HELL , AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANYMORE !!!
So, Saint Dick of Dallas, as Christians, which of Paul's letters are we safe to ignore?

Confused Christian (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 9:34 PM)
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Feel free to ignore them all - his letters are nothing but advice and should never be elevated to that of Christ's
These Governors races in New Jersey and Virginia are being blown out of porportion saying that its a blow for Obama.  I don't know if you remember 8 years ago when Bush was President in Novemeber 2001 right after 9/11 when Bush had an 80 or 90 percent approval rating the Governors races in Virginia and New Jersey went from Repubicans to Democrats.  People say these Governors races are a pre curserer to 2010 for Republicans to gain control again in Congress.  In 2001 people probably thought the Governors races in Virginia and New Jersey that went from a Republican Governor to Democrat said it was a precurser for Democrats to gain control in Congress in 2002.  The Republicans ended up picking up more seats in the 2002 midterm elections.  It is still a year off.  Also there are some states that voted for Mc Cain last year that have Democrat Governors.  States like Montana, Wyoming, Kentucky, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia all voted for Mc Cain last year but have Democrat Governors.


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