Democrats
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Mike Viqueira, and Luke Russert
House Democrats "intend" to bring the health-reform bill to a vote tomorrow on the House floor. But as many as 20 to 30 votes could hinge on abortion.
Fix abortion, the bill passes, one Democrat said. Don't fix it, it doesn't.
Many of these members are waiting for a yay or nay from the Conference of Catholic Bishops on the abortion language.
Moderates Bart Stupak (D-MI) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), two of the central figures in this abortion fight, are currently in the Speaker's office.
Another member said there is a real push among Catholic members who support the bill to get other other, more skeptical, pro-life Catholic Democrats on board.
Also, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is making calls on this. President Obama is supposed to head to the Hill tomorrow to try and wrangle votes.
BUT sources indicate the president's appearance tomorrow is still up in the air, depending on the prospects for success tomorrow. (Perhaps the White House doesn't want the perception of a repeat of Copenhagen to get the Olympics for Chicago.)
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democratic House leadership contends there will, in fact, be a vote tomorrow on health-reform legislation -- despite reports suggesting a vote could be pushed back to Sunday or even next week.
An aide told First Read that "assuming all goes well," they are aiming for a vote late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. The aide, however, conceded the vote could slip later into tomorrow evening.
"We still expect to vote on health care tomorrow," the aide said.
The only thing that could push it off -- aside from not having the votes, and Dems don't have those yet -- are procedural delays by Republicans.
But Republican leadership says that's not part of the plan.
A GOP aide said they are happy to watch Democrats "flopping around like landed haddock." (For those wondering, haddock is a deep water cod.)
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From NBC's Michelle Perry
House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) acknowledged that House Dems still need to work out the abortion issue in the healthcare reform bill ahead of Saturday's vote. Clyburn told NBC's Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," that the House bill is in a good place on substance, but some remain "skittish" about the language that goes into the bill on abortion.
The potential stumbling block is whether or not the House bill would include explicit language restricting the use of federal money to pay for abortions. Moderate Blue Dog Democrats have threatened to oppose the bill if it doesn't.
"Both sides want to make sure that we don't put wording in here that will cause a tilt one way or the other," Clyburn told Mitchell, "and so that's the problem."
While Clyburn said that everyone is agreeable, that they express language in the bill that would not allow for federal funding for abortions, he added they are looking for a way to "wall off" the money. Right now moderate Dems remain concerned that there are still areas where the money is fungible.
That said, Clyburn thinks the issue will be resolved and they will have the votes necessary to pass the bill.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying its best to squeeze every ounce out of the Mark Kirk-Sarah Palin story.
A quick recap: First, the Washington Post's Cillizza got his hands on Kirk's letter to Palin friend Fred Malek, inquiring if Palin might endorse the Illinois congressman in his Senate primary. Then, as we reported earlier today, one of Kirk's conservative primary opponents blasted this appeal to Palin, noting Kirk's vote for the cap-and-trade bill.
Now the DSCC has fired off this "memo" to Palin and Malek, which digs up unfavorable things Kirk had said about Palin:
To: Governor Sarah Palin
Cc: Congressman Mark Kirk
Cc: Fred Malek
From: Kathleen Strand, Senior Advisor to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
Dear Governor Palin,
Yesterday, following the purge of a moderate Republican in upstate New York and the devastating special election in NY-23, it was revealed that Congressman Mark Kirk is actively seeking your endorsement of his candidacy in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois. However, Mark Kirk has not had kind words to say about you in the past. Faced with a difficult re-election race in 2008, Kirk told reporters he “would have picked someone else” for Vice-President and that frankly he “didn’t know whether you are qualified to be President.” Now that Kirk is facing a tough primary challenge from the anti-Washington, anti-establishment candidate Patrick Hughes, he is suddenly racing to embrace you. I’m not sure how familiar you are with Mark Kirk but he is a politician who has a history of putting politics above principals, something you surely look down upon. Whether the issue is cap and trade, extending unemployment benefits, or health care reform, Kirk has either flip-flopped, been AWOL, or motivated purely by politics. On the other hand, Patrick Hughes is comfortable in his own skin as an extreme right-winger. Unlike the pro-abortion Kirk, Hughes is firmly pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and pro-gun…sounds like your type of Republican. I know you are in Milwaukee tomorrow and will be in our great state of Illinois later this month, both would be a perfect setting to give your blessing to one of these two candidates. With so much at stake in the next election, everyone wants to know -- who will you endorse in our Senate race?
From NBC's Mark Murray
On MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," White House adviser David Axelrod today argued that it would be wrong to read too much into last night's GOP gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia -- and what they might mean for next year's midterm elections.
And if you read us earlier this morning, Axelrod does seem to have a point.
But looking back at First Read's coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel -- then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff -- had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.
Here's what we wrote then:
Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, calling First Read immediately after Kaine's and Corzine's victories were announced, argued that it's clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. "I think that's even more true today." He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing. "A lot of incumbents are losing to change," he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).
*** UPDATE *** Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's office also sends along this Nov. 2005 Roll Call piece. "In an interview last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) said that regardless of the results, the gubernatorial outcomes stand to have a huge effect on how 2006 is viewed. 'Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people's interpretations of the upcoming election,' Emanuel said, adding that Democratic wins across the board could have a positive impact on the party's 2006 recruiting efforts.”
From NBC's Luke Russert
According to Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN), House Democrats will vote on health-care reform Saturday at 6:00 pm ET.
It is possible that the vote could come before 6:00 pm. But, according to Hill, 6:00 pm is "when it is all going down."
Hill said he did not know whether or not Speaker Pelosi had enough votes to pass reform.
Hill also said that numerous members have told them "we're very close."
You may remember Hill as one of the influential Blue Dog Democrats who was one of the deal-brokers for health-care reform to get out of the House Energy and Commerce Committee back in July.
From NBC's Madeline Rullo
At House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's weekly briefing today, she commented on last night's elections, simply stating, "We won last night."
Question: "Madame speaker, Madame speaker, do the election results last night -- do they make it harder for you to pass health care, especially to get the support from members in these swing districts?"
Pelosi's answer: "From my perspective, we won last night. We had one race that we were engaged in -- it was in northern New York. It was a race where a Republican has held a seat since the Civil War, and we won that seat. So from our standpoint, no. We had a candidate that was victorious who supports the health-care reform... So from our standpoint, we picked up voted last night, one in California [CA-10] and one in New York."
From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview on MSNBC with my colleague Chuck Todd, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Bob Menendez all but endorsed Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in Ohio's Senate Democratic primary.
When Chuck asked Menendez about key Senate pick-up opportunities for Democrats next year, the chairman singled out Ohio and Fisher. But he barely referred to Brunner, and didn't even mention her by name.
When Chuck followed up and mentioned Brunner's name, Menendez responded that she has just over $100,000 cash on hand. By comparison, Fisher has nearly $1.6 million cash on hand.
The Fisher-Brunner winner will likely face former Ohio Rep. (and former Bush OMB Director) Rob Portman in the general election next year.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
As Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid remains shy of the 60 votes he needs to bring his health-care bill to the floor, one of the senators withholding her support appears to be moving away from Reid's bill that contains a public option -- and leaning instead toward the "trigger" proposal offered by Republican Olympia Snowe.
"I remain skeptical about what's been outlined conceptually," Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) said today, referring to Reid proposal for a public option that would allow states to opt out. "I continue to want to push forward to give people in American much better choices than they have today and will continue to stay at the table and negotiate."
Landrieu said she agrees with Snowe's belief that the private market should be allowed the chance to reform itself by providing affordable insurance coverage. But she quickly added, "If the private market fails to reform or refuses to reform then there would be a fallback position."
That "fallback position" is a direct reference to Snowe's proposal -- often called a "fallback" or "trigger."
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From WMAQ's Mary Ann Ahern (of NBC's Chicago affiliate)
Sen. Roland Burris, who is needed by the Obama administration for those 60 votes to pass the healthcare bill, said, "I will only vote for a bill with a strong public option."
Burris delivered his remarks at Stroger Hospital in Chicago.
"In order to achieve real reform" there must be lowered cost, Burris added.
