2009
2009 races
What conservatives just don't get about NY-23's message
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The morning after, conservative idol Sarah Palin's message for the tribe was essentially: The sky IS red, conservatives.
A defiant Palin wrote on her Facebook page last night, "The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010."
You betcha!
Those who thought a loss for the Conservative Party candidate,
Doug Hoffman, was a setback for the conservative movement are probably right, but that's no matter to Palin-ites. They'd argue they only lost because the stodgy Republican establishment didn't embrace Hoffman SOONER.
That's highly arguable, considering Hoffman's lack of knowledge of local issues, his carpetbagger status (he doesn't live in NY-23), and his just overall poor appearance as a candidate. He was always more of an idea. He wouldn't even meet with the Syracuse Post-Standard's editorial board, but who could blame him after his disastrous appearance before the local Watertown Daily Times.
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"Republicans swept contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday as voters went to the polls filled with economic uncertainty, dealing President Obama a setback and building momentum for a Republican comeback attempt in next year’s midterm Congressional elections," the New York Times writes. "But in a closely watched Congressional race in upstate New York, a Democrat who received a late push from the White House triumphed over a conservative candidate who attracted national backers ranging from Rush Limbaugh to Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor."
The Times’ Nagourney adds, “The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles.”
The Washington Post’s Balz: “Off-year elections can be notoriously unreliable as predictors of the future, but as a window on how the political landscape may have changed in the year since President Obama won the White House, Tuesday's Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey delivered clear warnings for the Democrats. Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections.”
Politico: “The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama’s political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy.”
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In CA-10, John Garamendi won the special election there 55%-40% with 50% of precincts reporting last night. Garamendi doesn't live in the district.
By the way, "After months of speculation but few public appearances, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina was expected to announce her plans Wednesday for the U.S. Senate seat held by liberal stalwart Barbara Boxer of California. Fiorina's campaign said she was to make 'a major announcement' during an appearance at a business in the Orange County city of Garden Grove Wednesday morning," the AP says.
"Maine voters overturned the state’s same-sex marriage law yesterday, delivering a potentially crushing blow to gay-rights advocates after a year when their cause seemed to be gaining momentum with legislative and legal victories in four states. As the ballot counting continued well past midnight, the margin continued to grow -- with 52.7 percent of voters in favor of the repeal -- and the
Associated Press called the contest in favor of gay-marriage foes shortly before 1 a.m. The 'people’s veto' came six months after Maine’s law was approved, and one year after California voters rejected gay marriage by a similar margin."
"Sixteen years after he rose to power as an unassuming master of street-level minutiae, Thomas Michael Menino cemented his place as a singular force in urban American politics yesterday, withstanding his fiercest challenge yet to capture an unprecedented fifth term in office and extend the longest mayoral reign in Boston’s history," The
Boston Globe reports. "The 66-year-old former insurance salesman from Hyde Park easily defeated Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr., 57 percent to 42 percent. More than 110,000 voters went to the polls, the highest number in a mayoral election since 1993."
“Christopher J. Christie, became the first Republican to win statewide in 12 years by vowing to attack the state’s fiscal problems with the same aggressiveness he used to lock up corrupt politicians,” the New York Times says. “He overcame a huge Democratic voter advantage and a relentless barrage of negative commercials to defeat Jon S. Corzine, an unpopular incumbent who outspent him by more than two to one and drew heavily on political help from the White House, including three visits to the state from President Obama.”
Video:
Rachel Maddow is joined by Princeton University professor Melissa Haris-Lacewell to help interpret the results from the N.J. governor's race.
The New York Post: "Chris Christie last night became the first Republican to be elected governor of New Jersey in more than a decade -- a stunning triumph that came just days after President Obama put his prestige on the line and visited the Garden State to urge voters to re-elect Democrat Jon Corzine."
The AP called Christie's win "the darling of New Jersey's Republican Party establishment” after unseating the "deep-pocketed but unpopular" incumbent Jon Corzine. Christie "became the first member of his party in a dozen years to win a statewide contest in heavily Democratic New Jersey," despite heavy investments of time and money by Corzine and national Democratic leaders, including President Barack Obama.
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The AP writes, "President Barack Obama's decision in June to appoint a Republican congressman to a Pentagon post has paid dividends in November now that Democrats have gained the House seat by capitalizing on a split between moderates and conservatives in the GOP. Lawyer and retired Air Force Capt. Bill Owens won the special election Tuesday in northern New York in which the Republican candidate withdrew over the weekend under pressure from the party's right wing and GOP heavyweights endorsed the Conservative Party nominee."
"Hoffman's far-flung supporters cast the election as a referendum on a perceived leftward lurch by political leaders of both parties," The New York Post writes. "Facing desertion from the right, Scozzafava abruptly suspended her campaign over the weekend and endorsed Owens. The move freed up labor unions, which had previously split their support, to rally behind Owens."
Conservatives “won a nasty battle to carry the GOP banner” but lost the war, the New York Daily News writes.
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The AP: "In Associated Press surveys at polling places statewide, about eight in 10 voters said they were worried about the direction of the nation's economy, and the majority of those favored McDonnell. He built his political career as a social conservative and abortion opponent but focused his campaign on employment and closing the budget gap without raising taxes."
The Richmond Times-Dispatch writes that McDonnell “created a model for other Republican candidates,” by “emphasiz[ing] jobs creation and de-emphasiz[ing] social issues,” despite McDonnell’s graduate thesis, revealed in August, which “appeared to demean women.”
The Washington Post also spotlights McDonnell’s avoidance of social issues, writing that he “crafted his campaign around particular concerns... He reached out to minority communities and drilled so deeply into local concerns that he was discussing Lyme disease in one neighborhood and Guantanamo Bay prisoners in another.” McDonnell’s resulting win everywhere but the “liberal heartlands” shows that “Democrats cannot take Northern Virginia for granted despite an influx of young, minority voters who tend to vote Democratic.”
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd congressional district special election, 49%-45% (with 92% of the voting in), becoming the first Democrat to control the district since at least the 1890s.
The results came in overnight and was finally called around 1:00 am ET.
It was something of an upset after it was widely considered a likely victory for Hoffman after the Republican pick, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race over the weekend. Scozzafava did, however, endorse Owens -- though it was unclear what effect that would have.
It's a victory also for the DCCC, which has now won two competitive special elections in once-traditionally conservative Upstate New York since Obama has become president.
Republicans now control just two of 29 districts in New York State -- one Upstate and one in Long Island. They have lost six districts Upstate just since 2006. They control zero seats in all of New England.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democrat Bill Owens is up by just 2,500 votes or about 2%, and there are still about 11,000 absentee ballots that have to be counted. They won't start counting those until the morning, our Elections Unit tells us.
So, we're calling it a night. See you in the morning.
