2010
News about 2010 midterm elections
Another potential 2010 issue? Stu Rothenberg, writing in Roll Call: "Given the primacy of domestic issues to the public, particularly the undeniable importance of unemployment, health care and spending issues, that may seem an unwise guess. But if there are any issues that can rival, or in fact trump, kitchen-table concerns, one of them surely is national security. ... Since foreign policy remains one of Obama’s assets to date, he could create dramatic problems for himself when forced to make difficult decisions involving U.S. foreign policy."
COLORADO: Josh Penry, who recently dropped his bid for Colorado governor, endorsed former Congressman Scott McInnis.
And Tom Tancredo will endorse McInnis today, the Denver Post writes.
Vulnerable Sen. Michael Bennett (D) answered “yes” when asked if, at the end of the Senate debate, he would vote in favor of comprehensive health care reform even if he had compelling evidence that such a vote would cost him his seat in next year’s midterm elections.
CONNECTICUT: Sen. Chris Dodd was greeted by about 100 protestors carrying “Dump Dodd” signs as he entered a Connecticut restaurant to talk about health care reform, financial reform, and his 2010 candidacy.
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COLORADO: Denver Post columnist Mike Rosen outlined a GOP policy platform drafted by several Republican gubernatorial candidates yesterday, calling it the “Contract for Colorado:” “The agenda [is] modeled on the winning reform recipes of Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell in their New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races… and reassure[s] the Republican base, while specific, practical, and inclusive enough to attract swing-voting independents in the state.” Rosen also writes that the plan intended to give presumptive GOP nominee Scott McInnis “something concrete to run on rather than merely running against [incumbent governor Bill] Ritter.”
“McInnis said he hopes the agenda -- perhaps the first time the GOP has crafted such a unified message in Colorado -- will unify the party and appease Republican factions that have been hesitant to embrace him. ‘The reality of it is: A party can split and take second place or a party can unify and take the governor's seat," McInnis said. "I've never seen the message of unification so strong among Republicans. They're tired of losing.’"
CONNECTICUT: Colleen Flanagan, state Democratic party spokeswoman, lashed out at Rob Simmons for injecting politics into questions about where terrorism suspects should be tried. Yesterday, Simmons, a Republican running against U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, put out a press release attacking Dodd for voting to allow civilian trials for 9/11 attackers in the U.S. "Rob Simmons and his mentors, George Bush and Karl Rove, have played politics with terrorism and this country's national security since the moment 9/11 occurred," Flanagan said via email. "It's disgusting and it doesn't merit further response."
IOWA: Former Gov. Terry Branstad said Iowa voters’ early preference of him over Gov. Chet Culver is helping his fundraising as the longtime Republican governor begins cranking up his campaign operation. “In 10 contested elections, two primaries and eight general elections, I’ve never been 24 points ahead before,” Branstad said. The Register’s Iowa Poll, taken last week, showed Branstad with the support of 57 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Gov. Chet Culver, a first-term Democrat.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
CEDAR CREEK, Tex. -- Given that this year's Republican Governors Association meeting is taking place here in Texas, reporters today asked RGA Chairman Haley Barbour, the governor of Mississippi, to weigh in on the Rick Perry-vs.-Kay Bailey Hutchison GOP primary for Texas governor.
Barbour said that the RGA doesn't take sides in primaries, but that he was personally backing Perry. "I personally think Gov. Perry should be re-elected," he said.
And then he added this: "I hope Sen. Hutchison will stay in the United States Senate for the rest of my life."
Asked why he supported Perry over Hutchison, Barbour replied, "I thought he deserved re-election." He then went on to say: "I would hate to lose Kay Bailey in the Senate."
When asked if he has talked to Hutchison about staying in the Senate, Barbour responded simply, "She and I have talked."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
The New York Times reported that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy," citing "people who have been told of the decision."
The official word out of Giuliani world is non-committal.
"Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it. When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own," Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said in a statement. And that's all she would say.
That is not the kind of statement that will end speculation, particularly in the New York media market.
Sources say the state Republican Party has not been told of any decision by Giuliani.
Nick Ayers, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, tells First Read that he's not surprised that Giuliani would decide not to run for governor. Giuliani's candidacy was always a longshot, he said.
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COLORADO: "The Republican race to challenge Rep. Betsy Markey (D) is getting crowded." Markey knocked off a three-term Republican incumbent for Colorado's 4th Congressional seat last year, and, as of Tuesday night, faces a third Republican challenger: Dean Madere, "a Louisiana native who works for a heating and air conditioning company and says he's "average" but "frustrated" with the direction of the country."
CONNECTICUT: "In a move that would shake up two political races, the state Republican chairman is publicly asking state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to run against Democratic incumbent Rep. Christopher Murphy in the 5th Congressional district." Caligiuri is currently running for Sen. Chris Dodd's seat, but "has been lagging far behind in the money-raising race against the top-tier, big-money Republican candidates" including Linda McMahon, former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, and Fairfield County investor Peter Schiff.
Former aide to Rep. Rob Simmons and Afghanistan vet Justin Bernier, currently campaigning for Murphy's House seat, issued a statement contesting Healy's involvement in the race: "The situation in New York's 23rd congressional district showed us what happens when party insiders play favorites,'' Bernier said in a statement. "I am confident that the Republicans in the Fifth District of Connecticut will make the right decision in this nomination process." Bernier has already received the support of the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Pete Sessions.
DELAWARE: A Susquehanna poll shows Beau Biden leading U.S. Rep. Mike Castle in a hypothetical matchup 45%-40%.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
AUSTIN, Tex. -- Earlier today, we reported that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist would not be attending the Republican Governors Association meeting here. But an RGA official tells First Read that he will be attending the confab, and will arrive here later tonight.
Crist, of course, is now running for the Senate, and he's facing a competitive primary contest against the more conservative Marco Rubio, who has been endorsed by the Club for Growth.
From NBC's Mark Murray
AUSTIN, Tex. -- When GOP governors huddled at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting a year ago in Miami, the party had just suffered another thumping at the polls, Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP.
But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest here deep in the heart of Texas, things have certainly changed. Republicans are now celebrating their wins earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia; Palin is no longer in office and is instead selling her controversial memoir; Pawlenty has become a frequent Obama critic and is emphasizing his conservative views; and Crist (who won't be in attendance) has gone from possible GOP hope to a conservative target in his race for the Senate next year.
Indeed, at least four stories will be on display here at the RGA meeting, which concludes on Thursday night. One, is the GOP poised for a political comeback? Two, looking ahead to 2012, who are the party's potential presidential candidates? (Pawlenty, Louisiana's Bobby Jindal, RGA Chair Haley Barbour of Mississippi, and Indiana's Mitch Daniels will be in attendance.) Three, who are their top gubernatorial candidates for the 2010 midterms? (Ohio's John Kasich, Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, and Florida's Bill McCollum will be here.) And four, is there really an ideological split inside the party? (While Palin is selling her book today in Michigan, the RGA will be celebrating two Republicans who won, in part, by hugging the middle -- New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie and Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell.)
It's also worth noting how the GOP rhetoric has changed from last year to this year. Here was Pawlenty a year ago in Miami: "People mostly want to follow positive leaders; they don't want to follow cranks." Here was Jindal: "We can't just be the party of 'No.'" Here was even Palin: "We are the minority party, but let us resolve not to become the negative party." Ironically, becoming the party of "No" has paid dividends -- so far -- for the GOP a year after Obama's historic win. The question to ponder is whether that's a sustainable long-term message for the party.
Today's RGA agenda: The public events kick off at 5:30 pm ET with a plenary session entitled "State-Based Solutions." It features Pawlenty, Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Kasich, Corbett, Christie, and McDonnell. Then, at 7:00 pm ET, there's a press briefing to discuss the 2009 campaigns. Speakers include RGA Chairman Barbour, McDonnell, Christie, RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers, and GOP pollster Glen Bolger and Jon Lerner. Finally, at 8:35 pm ET, Perry, Jindal, McDonnell, and Christie speak at a "Victory Barbeque."
The liberal group Americans United for Change says it’s announcing the first wave of a multi-million-dollar ad campaign to back up the 13 House Democrats (and one Republican) who voted for the health-care bill and who have been the target of the GOP-leaning Chamber of Commerce and the 60 Plus Association. Those 13 House members: Baron Hill (IN), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Joe Donnelly (IN), Chris Murphy (CT), Joseph Cao (LA), Earl Pomeroy (ND), Marion Berry (AR), Vic Snyder (AR), Tom Perriello (VA), Gerry Connolly (VA), Paul Hodes (NH), Michael Michaud (ME) and Dina Titus (NV).
Here’s one of the ads.
The Hill lists what it sees as its top seven House and Senate 2010 primaries. Senate: Florida (R), Pennsylvania (D), both sides in Kentucky, Utah (R), Connecticut (R), Colorado (D), Nevada (R); House: SC-4 (R), IL-10 (D), LA-2 (D), FL-8 (R), VA-2 (R), MI-7 (R), NY-19 (R).
ARKANSAS: "The Republican Party of Arkansas has scheduled a straw poll for U.S. Senate candidates next month in an early gauge of strength for would-be GOP challengers to Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln. All of the seven announced Republican candidates said Monday they would take part in the straw poll planned for Dec. 5 during the Winter Republican Leadership Summit at Hot Springs. Recent polls have shown support sagging for Lincoln, who is seeking a third term in the 2010 election."
CONNECTICUT: Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), running for Senate “called for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to be fired for his ‘mishandling’ of AIG’s bailout.”
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From NBC's Ali Weinberg
A few weeks ago, First Read rated our Top 10 Senate races, in terms of the likelihood of switching parties. Here's our breakdown, again, with a look at the headlines from some of those battlegrounds' local papers:
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Connecticut (D)
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Nevada (D)
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Colorado (D)
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Missouri (R)
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New Hampshire (R)
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Ohio (R)
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Illinois (D)
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Louisiana (R)
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Pennsylvania (D)
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Kentucky (R)
CONNECTICUT: "In another measure of just how important U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd's fate is to the Democratic party, the embattled Connecticut senator is getting his third high-profile visit of the fall. Vice President Joseph Biden will come to Hartford on Dec. 11 for a lunchtime fundraiser for Dodd...Dodd, who is up for reelection in Nov. 2010, has been struggling in the polls. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found that more than half of the state's voters disapprove of his job performance. And 53 percent said the 30-year incumbent doesn't deserve a another term in Washington."
The Hartford Courant writes that despite his low name recognition, Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) shouldn't be written off as a contender in the 2010 Connecticut governor's race.
NEVADA: Politico on the GOP's allowing Doug Hampton, John Ensign's former lover's husband, to carry out his "one-man crusade" against Ensign: "By pressuring Ensign to resign, the GOP could face a distracting intraparty squabble just as it prepares to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in what will very likely be the most contested race of the 2010 midterm elections. And after seeing the media frenzy from their unsuccessful efforts to push Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) from office after he was caught in a bathroom sex sting in 2007, GOP leaders believe it’s better to avoid commenting on the matter."
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FLORIDA: This week, the Sunshine State plays host to some famous Republican authors, as Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck all visit the Lake Sumter Landing Barnes and Noble in the coming week to promote their new books. Outside Huckabee’s signing yesterday, “members of the Tri-County Tea Party, which represents Lake, Marion and Sumter counties, waved signs and banners to offer support to Huckabee.” Despite his appearance in this battleground state, Pawlenty stayed mum on his plans for 2012. "Well, honestly -- and this is really true -- I don't plan to really think about it until after the 2010 elections," he said. "We got to see what happens in the interim."
MASSACHUSETTS: On Martha Coakley, the Boston Globe writes, "This Senate campaign, her longtime friends and close family members say, is in many ways her destiny. She was born with a desire and ability to achieve great things in the public realm, and she has spent a career -- indeed, a lifetime -- seeking something more. But one person’s ambition is another’s opportunism, and amid her many triumphs, she has been dogged by criticism that she pushed prosecutions too hard or not hard enough, sometimes for reasons of expedience. In the highly publicized Woodward trial, a judge reduced the jury’s murder verdict to involuntary manslaughter in a slap at prosecutors. In the Big Dig settlements, the only company she criminally charged was one of the smallest.
"Coakley is the apparent front-runner in the Democratic primary campaign for Senate, and caution has been her hallmark. That has created a disconnect between the guarded persona she presents on the stump and the one that family, friends, and colleagues say they have observed for years."
By the way, another primary candidate, Alan Khazei, is calling for all troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan.
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