Polls
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama has now dropped, for the first time, below 50% approval in the Gallup poll. It's the second poll this week to show that result.
This puts Obama on par with Ronald Reagan, who also fell below 50% 10 months into the job -- and better than Bill Clinton, who fell below in his fourth month. Reagan was dealing with similar economic numbers.
For context, here's what we wrote about this when the possibility was first floated that Obama could fall below 50% back on Sept. 2nd:
*** They’ve done studies, you know -- 50% of the time, it works every time: As of yesterday, President Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup daily tracking poll was 52%, which is close to the 51% in our NBC poll from last month. As Gallup has noted, if Obama falls below 50% in his eighth month on the job, it will be the third-fastest drop below that mark for a new president since World War II. Gerald Ford fell below 50% in his third month, Bill Clinton in his fourth month, Ronald Reagan in his 10th month, Jimmy Carter in his 13th month, Richard Nixon in his 25th month, LBJ in his 29th month, Bush 41 in his 36th month, Bush 43 in his 37th month, and Eisenhower in his 63rd month. Note: Kennedy never fell below 50% before he was assassinated, and George W. Bush was approaching that mark right before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. A few things to remember about all the analysis folks will see on polls in the coming days: There are more BAD polls now than ever before; it confuses the issue and lets some folks cherry-pick what they want. The VERY erratic robo-polling firms have added to the confusion like never before.
*** Obama has him where he wants them? This data above tell us a few things. One, Obama has had a rapid drop and that doesn’t help his prospects for things like health-care reform. Two, the most recent presidents -- Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43 (right before 9/11) -- have experienced similar drops, suggesting an increased political polarization over the past 20 or so years. Three, taking George W. Bush out of the equation due to 9/11, every president who has ended up winning re-election since 1980 saw his approval rating drop below 50% in his first year. Moral of the story: If your goal is to get re-elected, it’s better to have your political struggles early (Clinton, Reagan) rather than later (Bush 41). Kind of like a college football season, right? Better to lose early, than late. So be careful what you read into what Obama’s approval rating right now means for his presidency. There’s really no correlation between how quickly a president’s poll numbers drop and the overall success of his presidency.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Now that the NY-23 special congressional election has essentially turned into a two-person race, a new Siena Research poll has Conservative Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens by five percentage points, 41%-36%, with Republican Dede Scozzafava (who withdrew from the race on Saturday) now getting just 6%.
But this might be the most interesting number: 18% are undecided -- a very large number with just a day before the election.
“With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race,” Siena's Steve Greenberg said. “The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”
The poll was taken of 606 likely voters in congressional district, and it has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's another set of numbers we're releasing from today's upcoming NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out later tonight: Only 23% say they trust government “just about always” or “most of the time,” which is the lowest number on this question in 12 years.
What’s more, nearly half of respondents (46%) support building an independent political party to compete with the Republicans and Democrats.
And nearly six in 10 (57%) blame both Republicans and Democrats for the partisanship in Washington; 24% blame the Republicans only, while 17% point their finger at the Democrats.
From NBC's Mark Murray
As Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid moves forward crafting a Senate health-care bill that contains a public option -- with a state "opt out" -- the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows support for a government-run insurance plan at its highest level since the debate began.
According to the poll, 48% say they favor a public health plan administered by the federal government that would compete with private insurers, compared with 42% who oppose it. That's a shift from last month, though within the margin of error, when 48% opposed the public option and 46% supported it. And it's a 10-point swing from August, when 47% were in opposition and 43% were in favor.
In another question asked a different way -- is it important to give people a choice of a public option? -- a combined 72% answered that it was either "extremely important" or "quite important," while just 23% said it was "not that important" or "not at all important." Those numbers are virtually unchanged from last month.
The NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted Oct. 22-25, has a margin of error of +/- 4.4% on these two questions. The full poll will be released on Nightly News, and MSNBC.com, beginning at 6:30 pm ET.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's another tease of our new NBC/WSJ poll: According to the poll, the president’s health-care numbers have slightly increased, although that increase remains within the margin of error. Thirty-nine percent believe Obama’s health-care plan is a good idea, which is up three points since August. Forty-one percent say it’s a bad idea.
In addition, 45% approve of Obama’s handling of health care, while 46% disapprove, which is up from his 41%-47% score last month. By comparison, just 21% approve of the Republican Party’s handling of the issue.
And who will get blamed if health care doesn't get passed this year? Per the poll, 10% say Obama, 16% say congressional Democrats, and 37% say congressional Republicans.
The poll was conducted Sept. 17-20 and has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1%. The full poll comes out beginning at 6:30 pm ET.
From NBC's Mark Murray
With President Obama appearing on five Sunday-morning news programs and with him sitting down with David Letterman last night, the political chattering class has asked this question: Is Obama overexposed?
According to a new NBC/WSJ poll, the answer is mostly no -- although it depends on whether you're a Democrat or Republican.
In the poll, 34% say they see and hear Obama too much, 9% say they see/hear him too little, and 54% say it's the right amount.
Among McCain voters, however, 63% say they're seeing too much of the president. That's compared with only 8% of Obama voters who say that.
Among independents, 52% say Obama's exposure is the right amount, versus 40% who say it's too much.
The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 17-20, and this question has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.4%. The rest of the poll will be released -- beginning at 6:30 pm ET -- on NBC Nightly News and on MSNBC.com.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Liberals and progressives -- including Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office and the group Health Care for America Now -- have raised questions why our poll measured whether Americans supported the "choice" of a public/government option in June, while in July and this month it removed "choice" and simply asked whether Americans favor or oppose the option.
"One can only wonder why the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll removed the concept of choice of a public option after 76% of Americans say they want that choice," said HCAN national campaign manager Richard Kirsch in a statement. "By dropping what the president proposes and what the public strongly supports - giving people a choice - from their list of questions, the NBC/Wall Street Journal pollsters misrepresent reform and raise questions about their own agenda."
NBC pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R) released the following statement: "The only agenda that we have is to accurately measure changes in public opinion. To that end, we selected two questions which we think are the best barometers of how and if attitudes on health care are changing in view of the robust public debate that is occurring."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Two weeks since raucous congressional town-hall meetings on health care became a national story — and days after President Barack Obama began holding his own town halls — Americans remain skeptical about White House plans to overhaul the nation’s health system, according to a new NBC News poll.
A plurality believes Obama’s health plan would worsen the quality of health care, a result that is virtually unchanged from last month’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. What’s more, only four in 10 approve of the president’s handling of the issue, which also is unchanged from July.
And a majority — 54 percent — is more concerned that the government will go too far in reforming the nation’s health care system, while 41 percent is more worried that the reform will not do enough to lower costs and cover the uninsured.
“Things have not changed radically in the past two weeks,” says Democratic pollster Jay Campbell of Hart Research Associates, which conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.
“But they have changed enough to illustrate an environment that has gotten tougher” for the White House, he says.
Damaging misperceptions
One of the reasons why it has become tougher is due to misperceptions about the president’s plans for reform.
Majorities in the poll believe the plans would give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants; would lead to a government takeover of the health system; and would use taxpayer dollars to pay for women to have abortions — all claims that nonpartisan fact-checkers say are untrue about the legislation that has emerged so far from Congress.
Forty-five percent think the reform proposals would allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care for the elderly.
That also is untrue: The provision in the House legislation that critics have seized on — raising the specter of “death panels” or euthanasia — would simply allow Medicare to pay doctors for end-of-life counseling, if the patient wishes.
Click here for more on the poll.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The question of whether or not the eventual health-care reform legislation will include a public/government option to compete with private insurers has dominated the health-care debate over the past two days.
And according to a brand-new NBC News poll, 47% of Americans -- a plurality -- oppose the public plan, versus 43% who support it. That's a shift from last month's NBC/WSJ poll, when 46% said they backed it and 44% were opposed.
In a follow-up question explaining the benefits and disadvantages associated with a public plan, 45% said they agreed with the description -- by supporters -- that it would help lower health-care costs and provide coverage for uninsured Americans.
But 48% sided with opponents who say a public option would reduce access to their choice of doctors, and would lower costs by limiting medical treatment options.
Tune into Nightly News, or click onto MSNBC.com, for the full results of the poll at 6:30 pm ET.
The poll was conducted Aug. 15-17 of 805 adults. It has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new USA Today/Gallup poll taken yesterday shows that independents, by a 2-to-1 margin, are siding with the town-hall protesters in the debate over health care.
"In a survey of 1,000 adults ... 34% say the sometimes heated protests at sessions held by members of Congress have made them more sympathetic to the protesters' views; 21% say they are less sympathetic. Independents by 2-1, 35%-16%, say they are more sympathetic to the protesters now."
