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    1
    May
    2012
    2:33pm, EDT

    For Newt Gingrich, forever's gone away

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Follow @DomenicoNBC

     

    Newt Gingrich will bid farewell officially tomorrow at 3:00 pm ET in Arlington, VA, his campaign announced, per NBC's Alex Moe.

    "Expect Newt to speak to the important role citizens can play in stopping a second Obama term and helping Mitt Romney and the Republican Party build a governing coalition in Washington and state capitals across the country," Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said in a statement.

    But it's not clear just how much he will say about Romney or if he will officially endorse him. In his good-bye video posted this morning, he made no mention of the presumptive Republican nominee, but he did say, as Moe points out, that this was still the most important election and voters needed to do everything to beat Barack Obama:

    A song for Gingrich:

    29 comments

    I would like to dedicate this to the Newtser;

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  • 5
    Apr
    2012
    3:13pm, EDT

    Santorum, conservative leaders, focus on getting Gingrich out of race

    By Domenico Montanaro, NBC Deputy Political Editor
    Follow @DomenicoNBC

    Alice Stewart, the press secretary for the Santorum campaign, talks about the GOP candidate's strategy.

     

    Rick Santorum met with several conservative leaders at home in Virginia, sources close to the Santorum campaign confirms to NBC News.

    One of the major goals -- how to get Newt Gingrich out of the race and get his delegates to line up behind Santorum instead.

    The meeting, the source said, was “called by conservative leaders to see how to get everyone to coalesce around Rick. Gingrich is a big part of that … that’s a huge part of it.”

    Santorum spokeswoman Alic Stewart first confirmed the news on MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports and said the goal of the meeting, called by the conservatives leaders, was stopping Mitt Romney.

    "What I can say is we were approached by conservative leaders – a group of conservative leaders - who say now is the time for conservatives to rally together, get behind the right person that is going to be able to stop Mitt Romney," Stewart said. "That’s what the conservatives need to do."

    The conservative leaders are trying to “find a way to stop Mitt Romney,” the source said. Santorum and Gingrich have “met a couple times,” but there’s no indication Gingrich would get out at this point or endorse.

    The Gingrich campaign confirmed to NBC's Alex Moe that Santorum and Gingrich had met over the last couple of weeks, but, stressed that there is no chance Gingrich will exit the race and encourage his delegates to vote for Santorum.

    Santorum "should have thought about that during the primaries," Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond told Moe, "and Newt is not dropping out and handing him our delegates."

    He added, "Newt has not agreed to any alliances, and he is going to continue to move forward with his candidacy, and it is Sen. Santorum's decision alone if he wants to continue his candidacy."

    There was no discussion -- or encouragement -- at the meeting today of Santorum to drop out, the source said. And talk of Santorum rethinking before Pennsylvania is silly, the source said.

    “We’re going to Pennsylvania,” the source insisted. “He’s home for Easter.”

    Politico first reported of a meeting with conservatives today.

    23 comments

    Rick, hate to say it buddy (not really), but you are a day late and a dollar short in your wish. Only way Newt will leave the field is if someone pays off all his debt.

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  • 5
    Apr
    2012
    11:23am, EDT

    Gingrich Group files for bankruptcy

    By Domenico Montanaro, NBC Deputy Political Editor
    Follow @DomenicoNBC

     

    In another black eye for Newt Gingrich, the flagship of what's known in Washington as "Newt Inc." has filed for bankruptcy.

    In a Chapter 7 filing in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Northern District of Georgia, The Gingrich Group LLC, doing business as the Center for Health Transformation, filed for bankruptcy Wednesday. (Chapter 7 is "the chapter of the Bankruptcy Code providing for 'liquidation,' that is, the sale of a debtor's nonexempt property and the distribution of the proceeds to creditors," as defined by the federal courts.)

    The vast majority of Gingrich's net worth is tied up in the Gingrich Group. Gingrich is worth overall between $7.1 million and $31 million, according to his financial disclosure. He lists a promissory note from Gingrich Group as being worth between $5 million and $25 million.

    Rogelio Solis / AP

    Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks at the Gulf Coast Energy Summit in Biloxi, Miss.

    Gingrich was chairman of the group until May of last year, when he announced he was running for president. Since the candidate turned focus toward his presidential run, the Gingrich Group has struggled to raise money, leading to its eventual collapse.

    The bankruptcy comes at a time when Gingrich's campaign is struggling to regain any momentum. He has won only two states during his run for president -- South Carolina and Georgia, his home state -- and he lags far behind front-runner Mitt Romney in the delegate count, in third place with just 137 out of the 1,144 needed to become the nominee.

    Mitt Romney has half the delegates he'll need to secure the GOP nomination, but Newt Gingrich refuses to leave the race. The Washington Post's Karen Tumulty discusses.

    Though he continues to pledge that he's "going to Tampa," the site of the Republican National Convention this summer, Gingrich is sounding increasingly like a candidate fighting for relevance rather than the presidency.

    (Here are the bankruptcy filings - Part 1, Part 2.)

    The news of the bankruptcy was first reported by the Atlanta Business Chronicle and confirmed by NBC News with the court in Atlanta and a federal court database search.

    Gingrich pulled in $2.5 million -- the bulk of his income -- from January 2010 to August 2011 from sister organizations Gingrich Productions and Gingrich Communications.

    On the campaign trail, Gingrich has touted ideas coming from his health think tank. And it has been a source of controversy, as questions were raised -- and other campaigns questioned - whether Gingrich acted as a lobbyist on behalf of the group in Georgia.

    The Washington Post wrote: “[H]is time there exemplifies the former Georgia congressman’s post-legislative career as a well-paid consultant and policy guru, a role that earned him and his companies tens of millions of dollars over the past decade.”

    NBC's Kathy Johnson and Marcie Rickun contributed to this report.

    762 comments

    Guess the book & DVD sales aren't what they used to be... even when he forces a campaign staffer to don an elephant costume! lol You think Newt can hit Willard up for a contribution or two? Breaking News: Upon hearing this devastating news, Callista was spotted at Tiffany's & her credit ca …

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  • 30
    Mar
    2012
    8:21pm, EDT

    Gingrich says Romney must ‘earn’ the nomination

    By NBC’s Alex Moe

    GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Newt Gingrich reiterated Friday that he will not depart the presidential race until a candidate obtains the required number of delegates to secure the Republican nomination but acknowledged that Mitt Romney could get to that threshold before the convention.

    “I think that he [Romney] clearly has a chance to do it, and if he does succeed in doing it, obviously Callista and I will support him and I’m sure Rick Santorum will support him. But he has to earn it,” Gingrich said at his Green Bay campaign office. “But if he doesn’t get to 1,144, then I think you’ll see a very different party discussion from that point on.”


    The former House speaker currently trails both Romney and Santorum by a significant margin in delegates and has just two primary wins under his belt. And many polls have him struggling in the batch of states that vote on Tuesday – Wisconsin, Maryland and Washington, DC.

    But standing just across from Lambeau Field in “Titletown, USA,” Gingrich explained why he doesn’t plan to get out before reaching the finish line.

    “If you’re a Green Bay fan … you expect the team to play every quarter of the entire season and not just decide halfway in the season that it’s too hard,” he said at Kroll’s West Restaurant near the Packers' stadium.

    Some criticize Gingrich for staying in the race because they fear he is dividing the party and preventing the base from rallying around the frontrunner, Romney. While party unity is important, Gingrich said Friday evening, sometimes ideas matter more.

    "I want you know that we are deeply committed to going to Tampa, we are deeply committed to fighting for these ideas, that we are prepared to compete all the way. While I am committed to party unity, I think it ought to be party unity for a purpose, with a platform that matters and with ideas that enable us to say to the American people if you hire us, we’re not just anti-Obama, we are pro success for America and here are ideas that will make America successful,” Gingrich said.

    According to Gingrich, he, Romney and Santorum all have one common tie no matter what.

    “The three of us have a general agreement. We want to beat Barack Obama. If Santorum is the nominee, I will support him and Romney will support him. If Romney’s the nominee, Santorum and I will support him, if I end up being the nominee, both Romney and Santorum will support me,” Gingrich said, after he was asked about the conversations he has had with his two Republican competitors lately.

    “Now the fact is that we’re committed to defeating Barack Obama and we’ve known each other a long time and we want to make sure that however this thing comes out in the end, that the Republican nominee defeats Barack Obama, and I think that that’s the essence of the conversations we have.”

    On Saturday G,ingrich wraps up his three-day swing through the Badger State, speaking at the Wisconsin Faith & Freedom Coalition’s Presidential Kick-Off in Waukesha, Wis.

    97 comments

    This bloated old pig is relevant HOW? Let's face it - Willard will ultimately be the Prom King and President Obama is going to win by a historic landslide... LMFAO! Good luck right wing losers...

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  • 9
    Mar
    2012
    7:55pm, EST

    Even if he loses Ala., Miss., Gingrich vows: 'We're going to Tampa'

    By NBC's Alex Moe

    GULFPORT, Miss. – Despite calls to withdraw from the presidential race, Newt Gingrich says no matter the outcome of the primaries next week, his campaign will go on.

    "We'll clearly do well enough to move on, and I think there's a fair chance we'll win” in Mississippi and Alabama, Gingrich told The Associated Press in an interview Friday. “But I just want to set this to rest once and for all, we're going to Tampa."

    The former House speaker appears to be lowering expectations in the two Southern states after his press secretary told reporters that the elections on Tuesday were crucial.

    Campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond had told reporters on Wednesday that Gingrich needed to win both Mississippi and Alabama to remain a credible candidate. “From Spartanburg to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich,” Hammond said.

    Gingrich barely mentioned his two leading Republican competitors – Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum – at all on the stump Friday despite running neck-and-neck with them, according to new polls.

    The Speaker is continuing to campaign like it’s business as usual, focusing his criticism on President Barack Obama’s energy policies.

    Friday afternoon, the Gingrich campaign stopped at an oil drilling training facility in Laurel, Miss., to jab Obama’s recent speeches on energy, while touting his own $2.50 a gallon gas price plan.

    “I just wanted to point out, Mr. President, that this is how they get natural gas. This is drilling. They don't get natural gas from algae,” Gingrich said as he stood in front of an oil rig.

    Speaking at Gulfport High School – his last event in Mississippi Friday – Gingrich also called for Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to resign.

    “I have been told that the secretary of defense has suggested that international agreements override the Congress,” Gingrich said, referring to comments that Panetta made Thursday about Syria as he testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “If he believes that, he should resign tonight … Leon Panetta needs to learn we do not have a United Nations secretary of defense, we have a United States secretary of defense.”

     Gingrich campaigns in Alabama Saturday.

    26 comments

    Mr. Rocket Man & his plastic wife should have nothing to worry about down in the Redneck Riviera! The evangelicals can not get enough of the healthy helping of BS! Go Newtsie... take it all the way to Tampa! Make Willard sweat! lol

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  • 6
    Mar
    2012
    7:52pm, EST

    Gingrich to get Secret Service protection starting tomorrow

    By NBC's Alex Moe

    NBC News has confirmed from a source close to the campaign that Newt Gingrich will start receiving Secret Service protection tomorrow.

    Gingrich has events tomorrow starting in Montgomery, Ala.

    28 comments

    I hope the SS likes Mickey D's... Newt did not get that pot belly eating healthy! Meanwhile, the preservatives in their food has helped Calista maintain that 'youthful' appearance! lmao! Beats the hell out of Botox I guess...

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  • 6
    Mar
    2012
    7:00pm, EST

    NBC: Gingrich wins Georgia

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro

    Newt Gingrich has won Georgia, NBC News projects. Gingrich, the former speaker of the House who represented Georgia in Congress, said Georgia was a must win for him to remain credible as a candidate.

    Vermont and Virginia are "too early to call" at this point, but Mitt Romney leads in both.

    To play along at home and when to expect calls and characterizations from the NBC News Elections desk, here are the final poll closing times in each state:

    7:00 pm ET: Georgia, Virginia, Vermont
    7:30 pm ET
    : North Dakota, Ohio
    8:00 pm ET
    : Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
    9:00 pm ET
    : Wyoming
    10:00 pm ET
    : Idaho
    Midnight ET
    : Alaska

    10 comments

    Guess the Southern Evangelicals just weren't feeling the ♥ for Willard... Let's see what TN has to say?

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  • 25
    Feb
    2012
    7:33pm, EST

    Gingrich: I'm the $2.50 gas president -- Obama is the $10 gas guy

    By From NBC’s Alex Moe
    Follow @AlexNBCNews

     

     

    BURLINGAME, Calif. – Flanked by $2.50 gas price campaign signs, Newt Gingrich on Saturday laid out his vision for energy production in America and picked apart the speech President Barack Obama gave on the subject earlier this week.

     "We have more than enough energy in the United States that we do not have to rely on foreign countries, but we have an anti-American energy government, an anti-American energy bureaucracy, anti-American energy regulations,” Gingrich told the 500-person crowd at the California Republican Party Convention’s luncheon.


    “The long-term answer is Americans producing their own energy,” he said. “We can be the largest oil producer in the world by the end of this decade.”

     This could happen to no thanks of Obama, the former House speaker said, calling Obama’s speech at the University of Miami "factually false, intellectually incoherent, deeply conflicted on policy and in some places just strange.”

     Gingrich, who uncharacteristically read from prepared remarks a lot, went back and forth quoting lines from the president’s speech Thursday and then explaining how he, “a historian,” believes Obama is inaccurate.

    Gingrich chose to deliver this speech on energy in the state that has the highest gas prices in the country – the average for regular unleaded on Saturday was about $4.25 per gallon, according to the AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

     Approving the Keystone Pipeline, which Obama vetoed last month, approving a return to drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, and approving drilling in areas of Alaska, Gingrich says, would provide “2.3 million barrels a day of additional energy.”

     Never mentioning GOP rivals Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum by name, Gingrich said the choice between himself and Obama is simple.

     “If you would like to have a national American energy policy, never again bow to a Saudi king and pay $2.50 a gallon, Newt Gingrich will be your candidate,” he said to cheers. “If you want $10 a gallon gasoline, an anti-energy secretary, and in weakness requiring us to depend on foreigners for our energy, Barack Obama should be your candidate.”

     Herman Cain and Michael Reagan spoke before Gingrich at the luncheon, each laying out why they are supporting the former speaker in his run for president. The two men, along with Callista Gingrich, held their hands together high in the air after Gingrich concluded his almost hour-long speech.

     Gingrich will now carry his new campaign focus on gas prices and energy to Georgia, where he will start campaigning Sunday. He assured Californians he would be back to campaign in their state.

    774 comments

    Newt - the ONLY thing you are is a certified bull@!$%# artist & adulterer! And for all the lemmings that want to jump on the it's all the President's fault bandwagon - GOOD LUCK with THAT! NO President in history has EVER controlled the price of gas... to claim otherwise makes you sound as bat @ …

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  • 23
    Feb
    2012
    8:51pm, EST

    Gingrich criticizes Obama's apology to Afghans over Quran burning

    By NBC’s Alex Moe

    SPOKANE, Wash. – Newt Gingrich criticized the Obama administration for apologizing to Afghan leaders after Qurans were burned at a military base.

    “The president apologized for the burning, but I haven't seen the president demand that the government of Afghanistan apologize for the killing of two young Americans,” Gingrich told roughly 500 people at the Bing Crosby Theater here Thursday.

    The Afghans, Gingrich believes, "do not deserve the apology of the United States” after an Afghan soldier shot two American troops at a protest that followed the desecration of the holy books.


    “If Hamid Karzai, the president of Afghanistan, doesn't feel like apologizing, then we should say ‘goodbye and good luck.’ We don't need to be here risking our lives and wasting our money on somebody who doesn't care,” the former House speaker said.

    Karzai’s office said Thursday that it wants NATO to put on trial those who burned the holy books.

    The demonstrations began three days ago after people witnessed copies of the Muslim holy book being burned in a garbage pile at Bagram Air Field. Military officials said the burning was a mistake. The apology from the Obama administration came after the two Americans were killed.

    Gingrich has been unrelenting in criticizing Barack Obama’s foreign policies. At his campaign event in Spokane, Gingrich called him “the greatest national security disaster that we've had in my lifetime."

    652 comments

    What is it about Republicans and their aversion to apologies? I don't get that. If I burned a pile of leaves (which I can't anymore, but if I could) and the neighbor's lawn chair was in the pile, I'd say sorry. Does that make me weaker? And this obsession with not looking weak in a way makes us look …

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  • 20
    Feb
    2012
    4:45pm, EST

    Afternoon roundup: Santorum plays defense, Romney sheriff quits, half of ads negative

    Rick Santorum leads in polls, but he's spent much of the last two days defending provocative comments. ... A Romney Arizona co-chairman -- and hard-line immigration sheriff -- quits after a sex scandal erupts ... Romney asks Trump to give him air cover ... And half of all GOP primary ads have been negative.

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Follow @DomenicoNBC

     

    1. Santorum leads nationally, in states…
    Rick Santorum is maintaining the lead in national polls. His margin in the ever-fluctuating Gallup Daily Tracking poll expanded to 10 (36%-26% over Mitt Romney) today.

    Another poll conducted by Gallup for USA Today shows Santorum up six, 50%-44%. (By the way, two-thirds of Republicans in that poll say they oppose a so-called “brokered” convention.)

    National polls in primaries mean almost nothing. But as Super Tuesday March 6th approaches with 11 states across the country voting, national polls will mean a little bit more.

    In Oklahoma, the Sooner Poll shows Santorum up 16 points, 39%-23%, with Newt Gingrich -- not Romney -- in second. Romney is third with 16.  (In Texas, there’s a robo poll -- a methodology NBC doesn’t report on -- that shows Santorum up 30. Should there be more evidence that shows similar results in live caller polls, we’ll report it.)

    2. …But he’s also defending his own words
    We’re not sure if the Philadelphia Daily News is one of Santorum’s morning reads, but if it is, he woke up to this headline from a Daily News columnist: “Santorum? Really? He's atop the GOP heap. Are they nuts?”

    Depending on your perspective, Santorum either had a tough weekend or is standing up for very conservative values.

    Yesterday on the Sunday shows and again today, Santorum was left defending remarks accusing President Obama’s of believing a “phony theology” that is not based on “the Bible;” pre-natal testing leading to abortions; the greatest generation during World War Two and how they stepped up – albeit late because they thought Hitler might not be that bad and then pivoted and said people “today” need to step up. That left some to wonder if he were likening Hitler to President Obama (More on the full remarks here); And there were his remarks on public schools, in which Santorum, who homeschools his children, said, “Where did they come up with public education was the role of the government? … The idea that state governments or the federal government should run schools is anachronistic.”

    On almost all of those except pre-natal testing, which he defended, he tried to walk back or try to blame the media for overhyping them.

    On “theology,” he said he wasn’t questioning Obama’s faith, that if he says he’s Christian, he believes him. And he changed his language today from theology to “ideology.” (Though a surrogate today also explained that there’s a certain “secularist theology” or “theological secularism” that Obama and liberals ascribe to.

    On his World War Two comments, he said, “No, of course not,” he wasn’t comparing President Obama to Hitler. And: "It’s a World War Two metaphor. It's one I've used 100 times."

    On education, on CBS’s Face the Nation yesterday, Santorum put it this way: “To the extent possible, with respect to mandates and designing curriculum and the like, I’d get the state government out. I think that the parent should be in charge, working with the local school district to try to design an educational environment for each child that optimizes their potential. … It’s another thing to dictate and micromanage and create a one-size-fits-all education system in states and certainly in the federal government, which is what President Obama’s trying to do.”

    Not helping his cause today, spokeswoman Alice Stewart slipped and called Obama’s policies “radical Islamic policies,” instead of what she meant and said on the show as well – “radical environmentalist policies.” It’s a comment the left has had a field day with.

    For those who have seen Santorum in person, he tends to go without notes, can speak for a long time, and meander into territory that, if there were a script, would be off of it. Now, these comments could actually help Santorum with very conservative voters. But they could hurt him not just with independents in a general election, but also with Republicans for whom electability matters most.

    3. Romney Ariz. co-chair quits campaign
    A co-chairman of Romney’s Arizona campaign Paul Babeu, who was seen walking along the border in that famous McCain “complete the dang fence” ad and is running for Congress, quit the Romney campaign after a report in the Phoenix Times alleged that he threatened to deport an ex-boyfriend if he didn’t keep quiet about their relationship.

    He denies that accusation, but did come out at a press conference acknowledging he is gay. (MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviewed a reporter from the Arizona Republic who has been covering the story.)

    4. Romney camp asks Trump to do radio
    NBC’s Garrett Haake reported that, at the request of the Romney campaign, Donald Trump is now doing radio interviews for Romney in Ohio and Michigan. In one interview today in Michigan, Trump left open a third-party bid if Romney doesn’t win the nomination.

    “There's a good possibility would do something,” he said, “because I love the country.”

    He said Santorum “has no chance,” and that people in Pennsylvania turned him away. Locally, where they knew him best, was even worse.”

    He said he went with Romney because of electability. Santorum, he said, “can’t win in a general. I see that and I see some of his views which are so out there, he cannot win the general.

    He also acknowledged though one of Romney’s weaknesses – connecting with average voters. “He’s a much different guy on a personal basis than on TV,” Trump said.

    And he also revealed that he knows Gingrich, because he is apparently a member at his D.C.-area country club.

    5. Study: 50% of GOP ads negative
    If you thought the ad wars this year were even more negative than ever before, you are right.

    A new study by ad tracker CMAG/KANTAR media shows that just 6% of campaign ads in 2008 were negative in the GOP primary. This year, that number has jumped to 50 percent.

    And you have Super PACs to thank for that. They have run more ads than the candidates themselves. And the Super PACs have spent about three-quarters of their cash on negative ads.

    And, get this, 100% of Restore Our Future’s and American Crossroads’ ads have been negative.

    269 comments

    Chapter #669 of the YOU Just Can't Make This Stuff Up; Would that be the same sheriff who threatened to deport his ex-boyfriend? I believe the word I'm looking for is 'blackmail' & last time I checked, isn't that illegal? Willard sure knows how to pick him some 'winners'... When are the insane c …

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  • 29
    Jan
    2012
    4:21pm, EST

    Gingrich labels Romney a 'liberal'

    By Alex Moe, NBC News

    LADY LAKE, Florida– As the race in Florida draws to a close, Newt Gingrich is trying to draw a much sharper contrast between himself and his “liberal” GOP rival Mitt Romney. 

    “I am, in fact, the legitimate heir of the Reagan movement, not some liberal from Massachusetts,” Gingrich told the several thousand-person crowd at The Villages, a retirement community outside of Orlando. 

    In the past, the former House speaker always referred to Romney as a “Massachusetts moderate,” but early Sunday Gingrich began labeling the former Massachusetts governor as a “liberal” instead. 

    “This party is not going to nominate somebody who is a pro-abortion, pro gun control, pro tax increase liberal,” Gingrich told reporters about Romney outside Idlewild Baptist Church after attending services there this morning. 

    Gingrich has seen his poll numbers slip in the Sunshine State, where at one point he was beating Romney by a sizable margin. In the new NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday morning, Romney pulled ahead of Gingrich by 15 points – 42 percent to 27 percent. 

    The former speaker, though, said he was not discouraged by the polls and reiterated to reporters that he would take his campaign to Tampa in August. 

    “We will go all the way to the convention,” Gingrich said , adding that the convention might be a broken one. 

    “We have no evidence yet that Romney anywhere is coming close to getting a majority and I think when you take all the non-Romney votes, it's very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority and maybe a very substantial one,” he said. 

    The conservative vote in Florida seems to be split between Gingrich and Rick Santorum, who is polling at 16 percent in the new poll. Adding together the two men’s numbers would in turn pull one candidate ahead of Romney, which Gingrich hopes will eventually happen. 

    “Rick's going to get a decent vote … on Tuesday. I have no doubt the two of us are going to collectively outscore Romney,” Gingrich said. “And at that point it might be a pretty good conversation” to have with Santorum about trying to consolidate all the conservatives behind one candidate, he added.

    691 comments

    The Republican Party has truly imploded. Are the conservatives in sheepskin, liberals in sheepskin? Either way, their is a boogeyman lurking in every corner. Is it the GOP/TP party, the GOP-TP party, or the GOP or TP party? It is really the GOP, aka TP, aka Libertarian party.

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  • 29
    Jan
    2012
    9:00am, EST

    NBC/Marist poll: Romney up 15 over Gingrich in Florida

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Follow @DomenicoNBC

     

    Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.

    Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided.

    "The bottom line in all this is Romney's sitting in the driver's seat going into Tuesday," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, who conducted the poll.

    If Romney pulls off a victory of that magnitude, he could be on a glide path to the nomination. But there are warning signs for the Republican Party that the primary has taken a toll on Romney and the rest of the GOP field. Each of the candidates struggles in a general-election matchup with President Barack Obama in this swing state, especially with independents.

    (CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL POLL.)

    (CLICK HERE FOR POLL OVERVIEW AND MARGIN OF ERROR.)


    How Romney wins: Consolidates supporters, women
    Romney beats Gingrich and the rest of the field by winning broadly across many subgroups -- those who are not Tea Party supporters (52 percent), those who are liberal or moderate (49 percent), make more than $75,000 a year (49 percent), identify as "conservative" (47 percent), and, in particular with women.

    There was a stark gender gap between Romney and Gingrich. Women said they preferred Romney by 47-26 percent over Gingrich. The gap is closer with men, but Romney leads with them as well, 38-29 percent.

    Florida surprise: Cain endorses Newt Gingrich

    "He's winning both," Miringoff said, "but runs up the score among women."

    Romney also does well enough with Tea Party supporters, splitting the vote with Gingrich. Gingrich leads among that group, 36 percent to 34 percent, with Santorum taking 22 percent. And, Romney runs even or leads Gingrich in the traditionally more conservative northern part of the state. In addition, more GOP primary voters said Romney represented their views on immigration than any other candidate.

    Romney also leads among evangelical Christians, receiving the support of 34 percent, compared to 28 percent for Gingrich. Six-in-10 GOP primary voters said they believed Mormons are Christians. But even among those who say they don't believe so, Romney splits the vote with Gingrich. In 2008, born-again or evangelical voters made up 39 percent of the GOP primary in Florida, lower than the 60 percent who identified as such in Iowa and South Carolina.

    Gingrich vows to go ‘all the way to the convention’

    Gingrich leads Santorum among "very conservative" voters 36 percent to 29 percent. Romney gets about a quarter of that group -- 24 percent.

    But Gingrich would have a hard time arguing that a majority is voting against Romney, and that if Santorum were not in the race, he would win. When Santorum is removed from the equation, his vote splits off evenly between Romney and Gingrich -- and Romney leads Gingrich by an even wider 16-point margin, 49-33 percent.

    Santorum is the only candidate to see a debate bounce. In the three days of polling (Wednesday through Friday), Santorum saw a five-point increase after the debate. He was also seen as the "true conservative" in the race -- 38 percent said so versus 18 percent for each Romney and Gingrich, and 16 percent for Paul. More voters also said they saw Santorum as the candidate who best represents the middle class.

    Electability, being able to beat President Obama, mattered most to GOP primary voters -- and those voters chose Romney. That could be why a majority -- 55 percent -- said they wanted the nomination fight to be over quickly. Forty-three percent said they would like to see someone else run; just 52 percent said they were satisfied with the current crop of candidates.

    "This speaks to a lack of enthusiasm," Miringoff said. "People are a little fatigued with the process."

    Ad blitz: Importance of Super PACs
    Florida's 50 delegates are winner-take-all, so the stakes are high for the front-runners. Reflecting the importance of the state, Romney, Gingrich and their allies are spending about $22 million statewide on TV and radio advertisements.

    Romney's campaign and Restore Our Future -- the super PAC supporting him -- have blitzed the airwaves, outspending Gingrich and Winning Our Future -- the super PAC backing Gingrich -- 4-to-1, according to the Republican ad-buying firm Smart Media Group Delta.

    Despite Gingrich's protestations labeling Romney as "totally dishonest" for his attacks, the ad spending has proved difficult to overcome.

    Consider, according to the survey, that Gingrich's acceptability rating has taken a big hit from a month ago. In December, 65 percent said Gingrich was an acceptable choice to be the GOP nominee. In this poll, just 48 percent said so.

    Romney uses 'history,' surrogates against Gingrich

    "It's the net effect of the negative ads," Miringoff said, adding, "Romney's been successful in raising Gingrich's negatives; Gingrich hasn't been able to do the same with Romney."

    Romney is seen as the most acceptable candidate: 62 percent said so, just 11 percent said he's not. (Paul is the least acceptable – 45 percent said that.)

    Without being able to match Romney's resources or knocking Romney off stride at the two debates prior to the primary, Gingrich has been unable to compete with the barrage of advertising -- in a state so large that TV and radio ads are key.

    Importance of the early vote
    More than 400,000 have already voted early in the Sunshine State -- about 20 percent of the 1.9 million who voted in the 2008 GOP primary. That number could rise to as high as 25 to 30 percent before Tuesday, Miringoff said.

    That provides a big cushion for Romney, because he leads with early voters by 22 points, 49-27 percent. That could account for about five percentage points, Miringoff said.

    "He has a bit of an insurance policy with those early voters," Miringoff pointd out.

    With all these numbers, Gingrich's path is difficult to see.

    "There's not much left for Gingrich," Miringoff said. "He's left without an identity. He needs another moment, and it's hard to imagine what that would be."

    Romney, GOP struggle against Obama
    Romney and rest of the candidates, however, continue to trail President Obama in Florida among all voters. Romney does best, but loses 49-41 percent, a point worse than a month ago.

    As in the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Gingrich fares the worst of the entire GOP field against Obama, worse even than Santorum or Paul. Obama beats Gingrich, 52-35 percent, a five-point wider advantage for Obama from December.

    Obama, whose approval rating in Florida is 46 percent, has a lead over Romney, in large part, because of independents. Independents sided overwhelmingly with the president -- 50-36 percent over Romney, and by 20 points or more over Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.

    "Obama does well, because independents have been scared away," Miringoff said. "If Romney locks up the nomination any time soon, he's going to have to pivot quickly to win back independents."

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    This poll was before the 9-9-9 endorsement! Gingrich/Palin 2012! To the Moon and beyond!

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