In the upcoming Wisconsin primary, billed as perhaps the final opportunity to change the trajectory of the Republican presidential contest, frontrunner Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by seven percentage points, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. But should he capture the nomination, Romney would start out as the underdog against President Barack Obama, whom Romney trails by double digits.

In Wisconsin’s April 3 Republican contest, the former Massachusetts governor gets support from 40 percent of likely primary voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a particular candidate. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum gets 33 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul gets 11 percent,  and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 8 percent. Seven percent of respondents are undecided.

The poll – conducted March 26-27 – is consistent with the findings of a recent Marquette Law School survey, which found Romney leading Santorum by eight points. The Wisconsin race follows a familiar pattern: Romney holds the advantage over Santorum among liberal and moderate Republicans (43 percent to 24 percent), conservatives (42 percent to 33 percent), non-Tea Party supporters (42 percent to 31 percent), and those who earn $75,000 or more annually (47 percent to 32 percent).

Read the NBC News/Marist Poll

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Meanwhile, Santorum leads among very conservative primary voters (42 percent to 33 percent), strong Tea Party supporters (40 percent to 32 percent), and evangelical Christians (40 percent to 29 percent).

So far in all the GOP contests where there has been exit polling, Romney has won in every contest where evangelical voters have accounted for less than 50 percent of the electorate. And he has lost in every contest where that number has been higher than 50 percent.

The evangelical percentage among likely Wisconsin GOP primary voters, according to the NBC/Marist poll: 41 percent.

Obama leads in the general election
Looking ahead to the general election, the survey shows Obama holding a sizable advantage over his Republican opposition in this battleground state, which he carried in 2008 but where Republicans made big gains in the 2010 midterms.

Obama leads Romney in Wisconsin among registered voters, 52 percent to 35 percent, with 13 percent undecided. And he edges Santorum, 51 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The poll suggests, however, that both Romney and Santorum would have room to grow in the general election, given that a substantial portion of the undecided vote leans Republican.

Benefiting Obama is growing optimism about the state of the economy (52 percent believe the worst is behind them), as well as a more negative perception of the Republican Party (48 percent say the Democratic Party does a better job in appealing to those who aren’t hard-core supporters, while just 32 percent say that about the GOP).

What’s more, there’s a significant gender gap: Obama leads Romney among women by 25 points (55 percent to 30 percent) and men by 12 points (50 percent to 38 percent). The president’s job-approval rating in Wisconsin stands at 50 percent. 

Divided over the recall
As for the recall contest of Republican Gov. Scott Walker, 46 percent of Wisconsin voters say they will support him in that race, while 48 percent indicate they’ll vote for the eventual Democratic candidate who will face off against the incumbent governor.

The approval rating for Walker – who sparked a firestorm of criticism in his effort to curb collective-bargaining rights for the state’s public-sector workers – sits at 48 percent approval, 48 percent disapproval. According to the poll, a majority of likely Republican voters say they’re following the recall more closely than the GOP presidential primary race, 51 percent to 37 percent.

The NBC/Marist poll of Wisconsin was conducted March 26-27 of 2,792 registered voters (with a margin of error of plus-minus 1.9 percentage points) and of 740 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 3.6 percentage points).

LUVERNE, MN -- Those thinking Rick Santorum would never be able to recapture what his campaign had in the Hawkeye State were wrong, at least for a night, when the Iowa caucus victor made a stop here in a town just ten miles north of the state that catapulted his candidacy.

Santorum held his first campaign event in a part of Minnesota just north of Lyon County Iowa, the northwest most part of Iowa with a large contingent of evangelical voters and an area where caucus returns were overwhelmingly in his favor.

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Even the originally scheduled venue, a Pizza Ranch restaurant , was reminiscent of his Iowa campaign.  He held more than 30 town halls at the restaurants located throughout the state.  Monday's town hall ended up being moved to a theater next door to accommodate the 300 person crowd, though he stopped by after to grab a bite.

"I figured, lets start bordering Lyon County as a point of strength...and make this the focal point, the starting point, for our campaign across Minnesota," said Santorum.

It was the former Pennsylvania senators first day back on the trail since his 3-year-old daughter was admitted to a Virginia hospital after developing pneumonia in both lungs.  Bella Santorum suffers from the genetic disorder Trisomy 18 and has battled the life threatening illness all of her life.  She is still in the hospital but has shown major improvements.

"I was with her last night in the hospital bed, laid with her and slept with her last night," said Santorum.  "She woke up this morning and had a big smile on her face and I thought, 'OK, dad can go back to work now.'"

He canceled campaign events in Florida on Sunday, and chose to continue his campaign with a stop in Missouri on Monday before heading to Minnesota.  He will watch Florida returns in from his Nevada headquarters.

"I don't know what's going to happen in Florida tomorrow, but it's only one race," he said. "Everyone says, 'Oh it's over then.'  It will not be. This race is going to go on a long time, and it needs to go on a long time."

Attempting to win over voters ahead of the Minnesota's Feb. 7 caucus, Santorum painted himself as the true social conservative in the race.

He talked about protecting anti-abortion rights and the importance of family -- points that have played less of a role in his stump speech since leaving Iowa.  Abandoning Florida the day before the primary shows he is focusing outside the expensive where he struggled to compete with his better funded GOP rivals and where recent polls have him a distant third.

"This is one of those races that we shouldn't make rash decisions just because someone has the most money.  Let me assure you, no matter how much more money Gov. Romney has than either Newt or I have, he's not going to have near the money President Obama's going to have.  So if you think that we're going to win this race because Gov. Romney will have more money to beat up Barack Obama, then Barack Obama will have to beat him up, you're wrong," said Santorum. "Having the most money isnt going to win this race.  having the best candidate with the best ideas"

It is caucus states like Minnesota, Colorado and Nevada were the presidential hopeful is now focusing in the hopes of being able to pick up delegates without having to outright win a state.  His message is that the baggage and records of his competitors will be a distraction in a head-to-head matchup with President Obama.

The general election "can't be about someone who is an undisciplined politician who is coming up with a new idea every ten seconds, most of which don't make any sense. Or someone who is a recent conservative in order to be able to win an election as is in both of their cases, on the major issues of the day,"

the GOP hopeful told the crowd.  Santorum has previously taken swipes at former Speaker Newt Gingrich for proposing a permanent U.S. base on the moon, Mitt Romney for never having won an election while running as a conservative.

The Santorum campaign will split time between Colorado and Nevada over the early part of this week.

CHARLESTON, S.C. – As Rick Santorum’s supporters celebrated his strong Iowa showing, they were also making preparations for a push through South Carolina that will begin even before the New Hampshire primary vote.

Santorum’s South Carolina fans, some of whom were gathered at his relatively well-appointed campaign headquarters to watch the caucus returns, will be able to see him in the Palmetto State on the afternoon of Sunday, Jan. 8th, when he stops in Greenville just two days before the New Hampshire vote.

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His campaign also added another South Carolina staffer: political consultant Andrew Boucher, a former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican primary – a ramping-up of staff that suggests Santorum will seek to capitalize on his Iowa momentum here, a state that has picked every Republican presidential candidate since 1980.

Recommended: 11 things you might not now about Santorum

Santorum’s supporters, about 15 of whom remained at the headquarters as the final votes trickled in, were ecstatic about his neck-and-neck finish with Mitt Romney – but some of them said they weren’t surprised he did so well.

“I knew this was going to happen,” Kathy Hughes, a retired teacher from Mt. Pleasant, said. “So many people were saying, ‘why are you supporting him? Santorum can’t win!’ But I knew.”

She added that the phones at Santorum’s headquarters here had been ringing non-stop over the past few days. The phone did buzz a few times into the wee hours of Wednesday morning; the last call, Hughes said, came from a voter in Peoria, Illinois who was trying to get in touch with one of Santorum’s early-state headquarters.

• STORY: Romney edges past Santorum in Iowa photo finish

Joan Peters, a member of the Charleston Tea Party board from Moncks Corner, said she supported Santorum’s decision not to skip New Hampshire and come directly to South Carolina as Michele Bachmann is doing and Rick Perry was going to do before he announced he’d first return to Austin to reassess his campaign.

“He’s probably not going to win because Mitt Romney’s got New Hampshire pretty sewn up, but he’ll do well and then he’ll come down to South Carolina and the money’s going to start coming in,” Peters said. “People now realize what we’ve always realized, which is that he’s a credible candidate and he can win.”

More on NBC Politics: 

Three major storylines from the entrance polls

Perry to 'reassess' campaign

NBC's Andrew Rafferty: Much has changed for Santorum

 

 

Herman Cain said Saturday that he is suspending his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, choosing to end his campaign after weathering weeks of scrutiny over alleged sexual misconduct and accusations of an extramarital affair.

"As of today, with a lot of prayer and soul searching, I am suspending my presidential campaign," Cain said at an appearance outside his campaign headquarters in Atlanta. "I am suspending my presidential campaign because of the continued distraction, the continued hurt caused on me and my family. Not because we are not fighters."

Cain said he's launching a "plan B" of his public career, a new policy-oriented website called TheCainSolutions.com. He said he will endorse a Republican candidate for president "in the near future." His announcement could lead to the effective end to his campaign, but technically leaves open the option of reviving his bid for the presidency.

"I am not going to be silenced, and I am not going away," he defiantly told disappointed supporters.

SLIDESHOW: Herman Cain

Cain's announcement nodded to the continued scrutiny that's surrounded his campaign since a media storm that began on Oct. 31, when POLITICO reported that the National Restaurant Association had settled sexual harassment claims brought by two women against Cain. The former Godfather’s Pizza CEO steadfastly denied the allegations, even as other women – some anonymously – emerged to make similar allegations against Cain. “The charges and the accusations I absolutely reject. They simply didn't happen. They simply did not happen,” the candidate said at a Nov. 8 press conference after Sharon Bialek, a former restaurant association official, publicly detailed harassment claims against Cain.

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“As far as these accusations causing me to back off and maybe withdraw from this presidential primary race … ain’t gonna happen,” declared Cain during that address.

VIDEO: Cain denies allegations of sexual harassment

On Nov. 28, an Atlanta woman told a FOX affiliate that she had engaged in a 13-year-long affair with Cain. Ginger White said their relationship had ended only recently, when Cain started to pursue the GOP nomination. Her claims took on an added degree of gravity after Cain acknowledged sending money, without his wife’s knowledge, to White. He maintained the two were merely friends, and had never engaged in a romantic relationship.

Those allegations prompted Cain, who had defiantly pledged to stay in the race and had continually denied any wrongdoing, to take a breath and reflect on the direction of his campaign. He told senior staff on Tuesday that he was taking time to “reassess.” During that “reassessment” period, Cain and his top staffers sent mixed messages about whether that meant the candidate would drop out. The Cain camp then revealed a Friday meeting between the candidate and his wife, Gloria, the first since White made her allegations.

Ahead of that meeting, Cain made this statement during a campaign stop: “Tomorrow in Atlanta I will be making an announcement. But nobody’s gonna get me to make that prematurely … Tomorrow we will be opening our headquarters in northwest Georgia where we will also clarify – there’s that word again, clarify – exactly what the next steps are.”

Cain's wife appeared with him at the announcement, receiving chants of "Glo-ri-a!" from the crowd. Herman Cain said he was "at peace" with his wife, his family, and himself. 

"I have made many mistakes in life -- everybody has. I made mistakes professionally, personally, as a candidate, in terms of how I run my campaign. And I take responsibility or the mistakes that I have made," he said. "But because of these false and unproved accusations, it has … had a tremendous painful price on my family."

Cain spoke of his campaign mostly in the past tense throughout his speech, lashing out at the media for fueling the frenzy that became associated with his campaign.

Cain’s decision to abandon his campaign marks a somewhat remarkable reversal of fortunes for what was, by all accounts, an unconventional campaign. Having never been previously elected to office, Cain surged to prominence in a fluid GOP primary season in part due to the strength of his “9-9-9” economic plan. The plan, which calls for a nine percent national sales tax along with nine percent flat taxes on personal and corporate income, became the cornerstone of his campaign.

CARTOON SLIDESHOW: Herman Cain

Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s stumbles in Republican debates this fall helped create an opening for Cain, who ascended to nominal frontrunner status by mid-October, when an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found him leading the Republican field nationally, as the choice of 27 percent of Republicans. Cain’s national success appeared to translate to key primary states, too; a late October Iowa Poll conducted by the Des Moines Register found Cain vying for the lead in the state’s caucuses. (By comparison, a late November poll conducted for the Register found Cain’s support had plummeted to eight percent.)

Cain’s rise had seemingly defied conventional political wisdom, considering the unusual way in which he managed his campaign. The candidate spent little time in traditional primary states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Instead, Cain traveled across the U.S., making stops in states like Wisconsin or Ohio, which don’t host meaningful primary contests. And Cain’s decision to effectively put his campaign on hold this fall to pursue a book tour in the thick of the campaign raised eyebrows among political observers.

VIDEO: Cain on "Meet the Press"

During those trips, Cain committed other errors that contributed to rising doubts about the viability of his campaign. Iowa Rep. Steve King, an influential conservative in his state's Jan. 3 caucus, expressed that sentiment on Twitter: "Virtuous or not, declaring in or out, however we feel for him, Herman Cain's campaign is over."

Cain had rather cavalierly said that he didn’t feel the need to understand the intricacies of foreign policy. (“We need a leader, not a reader,” he declared at a mid-November campaign stop.)  One particular meeting, with the editors of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, helped cement growing concerns about Cain when he awkwardly stumbled for an answer to a question about how he would assess President Barack Obama’s policy toward Libya.

"President Obama supported the uprising, correct? President Obama called for the removal of (Moammar) Gadhafi. I just wanted to make sure we're talking about the same thing before I say, 'Yes, I agreed' or 'No I didn't agree,'" he said, before stopping himself and reconsidering his answer. 

"I got all this stuff twirling around in my head," he explained.

This post was last updated at 2:14 p.m.