First Read : 2009

Previewing today's RGA meeting

Mark Murray — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:17:00 GMT

From NBC's Mark MurrayAUSTIN, Tex. -- When GOP governors huddled at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting a year ago in Miami, the party had just suffered another thumping at the polls, Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP. But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest here deep in the heart of Texas, things have...(read more)

MA SEN: Pelosi endorses Capuano

Domenico Montanaro — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:12:00 GMT

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Rep. Mike Capuano in the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts.

"[Capuano] and Pelosi are to appear together in Boston Friday morning to formalize the endorsement," writes the Boston Globe. "While Pelosi is popular with Democrats, she is a target of Republicans and conservatives. So while her backing could help Capuano, particularly against Attorney General Martha Coakley, in the Dec. 8 Democratic primary, it could hurt him among Republicans and independents if he wins the nomination and moves to the Jan. 19 special election."

In a statement, Pelosi praised Capuano's health care vote as "courageous." Remember, Coakley said she would have voted against it, because of the Stupak Amendment. Capuano at first sharply criticized Coakley for that. But the next day, he backtracked.

...(read more)

2009: More post-mortems

Domenico Montanaro — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:07:00 GMT

In his first interview since being elected, Chris Christie was asked to name the lowest point in the campaign. To which he replied, “One? He then picked the period when the U.S. Attorneys Office, which he led for seven years, became fodder for attack as Democrats questioned whether Christie used his corruption prosecutions to launch a political career. He said he would not be standoffish to his Democratic opponents during his governorship, because, Christie said, it doesn’t make any sense. You won....(read more)

2009 exit polls

Domenico Montanaro — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 18:32:00 GMT

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
If you're looking for the full 2009 exit polls, here they are:

And here's a compilation of some of what we've written over the past few days going inside these numbers.

As we wrote in First Thoughts yesterday: The election provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.

Video: Chuck Todd's Nightly News spot on the economic worries in 2009 election

Chuck's broader TODAY show spot

Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.

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2009: The post-mortems

Mark Murray — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:12:00 GMT

Congressional Democrats seem to have two different ideas on what Tuesday’s elections meant for their party, the Washington Post says. “[M]oderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. Liberal lawmakers, meanwhile, said the party's shortcoming came in moving too slowly on health-care reform and other items that would satisfy a base becoming disenchanted with the failure to deliver rapid change in government.”

Roll Call notes that moderates' opinions on health reform legislation didn't change because of the elections.

The New York Times front-pages, “Republicans emerged from Tuesday’s elections energized by victories in Virginia and New Jersey, but their leaders immediately began maneuvering to avoid a prolonged battle with conservative activists over what the party stands for and how to regain power… Despite Mr. Hoffman’s loss [in NY-23], many conservatives promised to press on with opposition to centrist Republican candidates. That vow intensified concerns among party leaders that the opportunities they see coming out of Tuesday’s results could be dimmed by intramural battles over whether to reach for the political center or do more to motivate the base on the party’s right.”

The Washington Post adds that the GOP’s “fortunes in next year's midterm elections may rest in its ability to harness a populist wave of voter discontent with Washington and government spending. But the surprising Democratic victory in the New York congressional election -- despite the intervention of conservative activists -- for a seat the GOP held for more than a century was sobering evidence that rallying behind conservative candidates may not be the answer.”

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Wrapping up last night's ballot measures

Mark Murray — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:54:00 GMT

From NBC's Kelly PaiceMore happened yesterday than just two gubernatorial races and a special congressional election -- key ballot initiatives were voted on across the nation. To name a few, in Maine, voters repealed the state's law allowing same-sex marriage, a law that was signed by Gov. John Baldacci (D) only six months ago. According to the AP, the repeal passed by a 53%-47% margin. Also, a measure in Washington state that would expand rights and responsibilities to those in same-sex domestic...(read more)

Wrapping up the mayoral contests

Mark Murray — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:44:00 GMT

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Here's a look at the results of the mayoral races -- beyond the higher-profile ones in New York City and Boston.

In Atlanta, a six-way race will lead to a December runoff between the top two candidates, city councilwoman Mary Norwood (I) and state Sen. Kasim Reed (D). According to the AP, Norwood received 45% of the vote and Reed got 38%. If elected, Norwood would become the city's first white mayor since 1973.

Despite a late September poll showing more Charlotte, NC residents would vote for city councilman John W. Lassiter (R) than his opponent, councilman Anthony Foxx (D), the latter won the election by nearly 3,000 votes, becoming the first Democratic mayor of the city in 21 years.

In Ohio, the Democratic incumbent Mayors Mark Mallory of Cincinnati and Frank G. Jackson of Cleveland won re-election. Both supported the Ohio ballot initiative authorizing casino construction in four cities.

Former fire chief and Democrat-turned-independent Mike Bell defeated Democrat (and high school classmate) Keith Wilkowski, 52%-48%. Bell supports the approved casino initiative in Toledo.

Detroit mayor and former NBA star Dave Bing (D) received 58% of the vote to win his first full term after replacing scandal-plagued ex-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick in a May special election.

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GOP boost, but local issues dominated

Domenico Montanaro — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:38:00 GMT

From NBC's Domenico MontanaroThe 2009 gubernatorial elections provided a much-needed momentum boost for Republicans after back-to-back election cycle drubbings. But the GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia don’t necessarily tell us all that much about how the party will fare in next year’s midterm elections: Gubernatorial races generally say less about the national dynamic than they do local issues, and that's certainly true this year. In New Jersey, Chris Christie's win over Jon Corzine...(read more)

WH today vs. Rahm in '05

Mark Murray — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:20:00 GMT

From NBC's Mark MurrayOn MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," White House adviser David Axelrod today argued that it would be wrong to read too much into last night's GOP gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia -- and what they might mean for next year's midterm elections. And if you read us earlier this morning, Axelrod does seem to have a point. But looking back at First Read's coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel -- then...(read more)

Pelosi: 'We won'

Mark Murray — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:16:00 GMT

From NBC's Madeline RulloAt House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's weekly briefing today, she commented on last night's elections, simply stating, "We won last night." Question: "Madame speaker, Madame speaker, do the election results last night -- do they make it harder for you to pass health care, especially to get the support from members in these swing districts?"Pelosi's answer: "From my perspective, we won last night. We had one race that we were engaged in -- it was in northern New York....(read more)