First Read : 2010

2010 update: Musical chairs in CT

firstread — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 23:07:00 GMT

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
COLORADO: Local pollster and analyst Floyd Ciruli tells Human Events that the state's Republican Party "has unified at a very early stage" of the 2010 campaigns. Two GOP gubernatorial contendors, Josh Penry and Tom Tancredo, declined to run and have endorsed former Rep. Scott McInnis. And yesterday, the state party unveiled "a conservative set of principles aimed at boosting the party's prospects in 2010 just as the Contract with America did for House Republicans in 1994."

CONNECTICUT: Connecticut's musical chairs game continues, the Hartford Courant says. The latest to switch races is Sam Caligiuri, who was until this afternoon running for the Republican Senate nomination. He'll now be campaigning for the state's 5th Congressional seat. In a statement, Caligiuri wrote: "I have been joined in that race by other Republican candidates for whom I have come to have a great deal of respect, and who I have concluded are in a better position than I am to defeat Senator Dodd."

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2010: Moore problems for Dems?

Domenico Montanaro — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:07:00 GMT

ARKANSAS: "Senate Democrats and Republicans were left shaking their heads Saturday at Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (Ark.) decision to be the last Democrat to declare her intentions on Saturday night’s major health care reform vote," Roll Call writes. "Facing a tough 2010 re-election fight back home, Lincoln was one of three centrist Democrats who withheld their votes on starting the health care debate until shortly before the vote. However, by waiting until after both Sens. Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Mary Landrieu (La.) declared, Lincoln arguably became the decisive vote that put the Democratic bill over the top. Of the three, Lincoln is the only one up for re-election next year… Though Democrats were loath to publicly criticize Lincoln after she took a tough vote for them, many said privately they did not understand why she put herself in that position."

CALIFORNIA: Gender Wars: "California state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R) fired back at his U.S. Senate primary opponent Carly Fiorina (R) on Twitter today after she said she is the better candidate because she is a woman."

CONNECTICUT: Senatorial candidate Linda McMahon (R) responded yesterday to a question about Khalid Sheik Mohammed’s upcoming civilian trial by saying she will “probably have more firm policy statements after the first of the year.” McMahon opponent Rob Simmons’ spokesman issued a statement saying McMahon’s words “raise serious questions about her readiness to serve as U.S. Senator.”

FLORIDA: Charlie Shift? Senate candidate Gov. Charlie Crist (R) gave Florida Republicans “a dose of conservative talking points” at a county GOP meeting. He said health care reform was being pushed “almost literally down our throats” and that Republicans need to “stop it in its tracks.”

Crist also proclaimed: It would be "hard to be more conservative than I am on [the] issues."

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Dems to get their White knight in TX?

Mark Murray — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 21:01:00 GMT

From NBC's Mark Murray and Ali Weinberg
The last full year in which Texas had a Democratic governor -- in 1994 -- Bill Clinton was in his second year in office, Texas A&M was the dominant college football team in the state, and Kurt Cobain had just died.

In short, it was a LONG time ago.

But today's chain of events -- Tom Schieffer (D) exiting the gubernatorial race and popular Houston Mayor Bill White (D) possibly getting in -- could very well give Democrats their best chance at the governor's mansion since Ann Richards served there in the early 1990s.

Indeed, a Democratic source tells First Read that it appears White is getting in. "It's not firm or done yet," the source adds.

Perhaps biggest reason why White has a solid chance in this red state is due to the Rick Perry-vs.-Kay Bailey Hutchison primary on the Republican side. Perry beating Hutchison in a bloody, divisive primary -- in which both Republicans are appealing to the right -- could very well end up alienating independents and women, opening the door for a strong Democratic candidate.

Enter Bill White...

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Is the GOP making a comeback?

Mark Murray — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:00:00 GMT

From NBC's Mark MurrayHere is our take from last week's Republican Governors Association meeting in Texas. CEDAR CREEK, Texas - The message that the Republican Governors Association was trying to send to the donors, party big-wigs and political reporters who attended its annual meeting last week wasn't subtle. The Republican Party, the RGA boasted, is making a comeback. They underscored this in a video presentation to attendees. "America’s comeback starts with us," said the narrator in the...(read more)

The significance of Moore's retirement

Domenico Montanaro — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:51:00 GMT

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Is the news of Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore's (D) retirement a finger pulled out of the dam of more retirements to come?

That has to be a big fear of Democrats looking to stave off a massive loss of House seats next year.

A Moore aide confirms that he will be retiring and added that a written statement will be released later today.

"He's been 30 years serving the public, and it's time to start spending time with his family," the aide said on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the congressman's thinking.

Democrats are already expected to lose double-digit House seats, given (1) The history of the party in power of a newly elected president's first term traditionally loses double-digit seats, (2) That Democrats likely hit a high-water mark in the House after big gains in the last two election cycles, where they won in lots of right-leaning districts, (3) The economy, (4) Populist outrage over government bailouts and the like, and (5) An overall anti-government/anti-Washington climate.

*** UPDATE *** Moore's full statement after the jump, but how about this piece of it?

I have always sought to represent the moderate mainstream of the district, which I hope now will host a robust competition between the two parties to fill this congressional seat. As the first Democrat elected to represent this district in 40 years back in 1998, I know that there didn't used to be partisan competition in northeast Kansas. This progress is good for democracy and important in ensuring that all voices are heard.

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2010: McInnis picking up endorsements

Mark Murray — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:04:00 GMT

Another potential 2010 issue? Stu Rothenberg, writing in Roll Call: "Given the primacy of domestic issues to the public, particularly the undeniable importance of unemployment, health care and spending issues, that may seem an unwise guess. But if there are any issues that can rival, or in fact trump, kitchen-table concerns, one of them surely is national security. ... Since foreign policy remains one of Obama’s assets to date, he could create dramatic problems for himself when forced to make difficult decisions involving U.S. foreign policy."

COLORADO: Josh Penry, who recently dropped his bid for Colorado governor, endorsed former Congressman Scott McInnis.

And Tom Tancredo will endorse McInnis today, the Denver Post writes.

Vulnerable Sen. Michael Bennett (D) answered “yes” when asked if, at the end of the Senate debate, he would vote in favor of comprehensive health care reform even if he had compelling evidence that such a vote would cost him his seat in next year’s midterm elections.

CONNECTICUT: Sen. Chris Dodd was greeted by about 100 protestors carrying “Dump Dodd” signs as he entered a Connecticut restaurant to talk about health care reform, financial reform, and his 2010 candidacy.

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2010: Rudy, Rudy, Rudy

Domenico Montanaro — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:06:00 GMT

COLORADO: Denver Post columnist Mike Rosen outlined a GOP policy platform drafted by several Republican gubernatorial candidates yesterday, calling it the “Contract for Colorado:” “The agenda [is] modeled on the winning reform recipes of Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell in their New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races… and reassure[s] the Republican base, while specific, practical, and inclusive enough to attract swing-voting independents in the state.” Rosen also writes that the plan intended to give presumptive GOP nominee Scott McInnis “something concrete to run on rather than merely running against [incumbent governor Bill] Ritter.”

“McInnis said he hopes the agenda -- perhaps the first time the GOP has crafted such a unified message in Colorado -- will unify the party and appease Republican factions that have been hesitant to embrace him. ‘The reality of it is: A party can split and take second place or a party can unify and take the governor's seat," McInnis said. "I've never seen the message of unification so strong among Republicans. They're tired of losing.’"

CONNECTICUT: Colleen Flanagan, state Democratic party spokeswoman, lashed out at Rob Simmons for injecting politics into questions about where terrorism suspects should be tried. Yesterday, Simmons, a Republican running against U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, put out a press release attacking Dodd for voting to allow civilian trials for 9/11 attackers in the U.S. "Rob Simmons and his mentors, George Bush and Karl Rove, have played politics with terrorism and this country's national security since the moment 9/11 occurred," Flanagan said via email. "It's disgusting and it doesn't merit further response."

IOWA: Former Gov. Terry Branstad said Iowa voters’ early preference of him over Gov. Chet Culver is helping his fundraising as the longtime Republican governor begins cranking up his campaign operation. “In 10 contested elections, two primaries and eight general elections, I’ve never been 24 points ahead before,” Branstad said. The Register’s Iowa Poll, taken last week, showed Branstad with the support of 57 percent of likely voters, compared to 33 percent for Gov. Chet Culver, a first-term Democrat.

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Barbour wants KBH to remain in Senate

Mark Murray — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:17:00 GMT

From NBC's Mark MurrayCEDAR CREEK, Tex. -- Given that this year's Republican Governors Association meeting is taking place here in Texas, reporters today asked RGA Chairman Haley Barbour, the governor of Mississippi, to weigh in on the Rick Perry-vs.-Kay Bailey Hutchison GOP primary for Texas governor. Barbour said that the RGA doesn't take sides in primaries, but that he was personally backing Perry. "I personally think Gov. Perry should be re-elected," he said. And then he added this: "I hope...(read more)

Rudy: Will he or won't he?

Domenico Montanaro — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:40:00 GMT

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
The New York Times reported that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani "has decided not to run for governor of New York next year after months of mulling a candidacy," citing "people who have been told of the decision."

The official word out of Giuliani world is non-committal.

"Rudy has a history of making up his own mind and has no problem speaking it. When Mayor Giuliani makes a decision about serving in public office, he will inform New Yorkers on his own," Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said in a statement. And that's all she would say.

That is not the kind of statement that will end speculation, particularly in the New York media market.

Sources say the state Republican Party has not been told of any decision by Giuliani.

Nick Ayers, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, tells First Read that he's not surprised that Giuliani would decide not to run for governor. Giuliani's candidacy was always a longshot, he said.

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2010: KBH to air first big ad

Mark Murray — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:13:00 GMT

COLORADO: "The Republican race to challenge Rep. Betsy Markey (D) is getting crowded." Markey knocked off a three-term Republican incumbent for Colorado's 4th Congressional seat last year, and, as of Tuesday night, faces a third Republican challenger: Dean Madere, "a Louisiana native who works for a heating and air conditioning company and says he's "average" but "frustrated" with the direction of the country."

CONNECTICUT: "In a move that would shake up two political races, the state Republican chairman is publicly asking state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to run against Democratic incumbent Rep. Christopher Murphy in the 5th Congressional district." Caligiuri is currently running for Sen. Chris Dodd's seat, but "has been lagging far behind in the money-raising race against the top-tier, big-money Republican candidates" including Linda McMahon, former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, and Fairfield County investor Peter Schiff.

Former aide to Rep. Rob Simmons and Afghanistan vet Justin Bernier, currently campaigning for Murphy's House seat, issued a statement contesting Healy's involvement in the race: "The situation in New York's 23rd congressional district showed us what happens when party insiders play favorites,'' Bernier said in a statement. "I am confident that the Republicans in the Fifth District of Connecticut will make the right decision in this nomination process." Bernier has already received the support of the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Pete Sessions.

DELAWARE: A Susquehanna poll shows Beau Biden leading U.S. Rep. Mike Castle in a hypothetical matchup 45%-40%.

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